Red tide tests show lower concentrations in Palm Beach County
New test results for Karenia brevis in Palm Beach County show lower concentrations from the Palm Beach Inlet to Boca Raton.
The results, released Wednesday, were from samples taken Tuesday, according to the state's red tide status map.
All of the samples showed low levels of the algae that shut down beaches last week and forced lifeguards to don masks to protect from breathing in the toxic cells that can cause coughing, watery eyes and wheezing.
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 11, 2018 October 11, 2018 Categories WeatherTags bnblogs, National Weather Service, news, newsfeed, NOAA, outlook, pbpmobile, South Florida Water Management District, spcontent, Weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on Red tide tests show lower concentrations in Palm Beach County
BREAKING: Record-shattering Michael makes landfall between Mexico Beach and Panama City
UPDATE: Hurricane Michael made landfall at about 1:30 p.m. with 155 mph winds between Mexico Beach and Panama City.
UPDATE 12:55 p.m.: The eyewall of Hurricane Michael is coming ashore between St. Vincent and Panama City with 150 mph winds.
Landfall is eminent.
The most recent pressure level was recorded at 917, which is lower than Hurricane Andrew's 922.
Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach said only two U.S. hurricanes have made landfall with a lower pressure – the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 and Camille in 1969.
High-end Cat. 4 #Hurricane #Michael now making landfall between Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach, FL with *sustained* winds of 150 MPH. Pressure down to 919 MB (27.14"). (@NOAA GOES-East vis imagery) pic.twitter.com/hp1X9RF8aT
— NASA SPoRT (@NASA_SPoRT) October 10, 2018
#Hurricane #Michael's pressure continues to drop – now down to 919 hPa. Only two continental US hurricanes have made landfall with a lower pressure: Labor Day (1935) – 892 hPa and Camille (1969) – 900 hPa. pic.twitter.com/sSt5jlmoOI
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 10, 2018
Update 11:30 a.m.: Hurricane Michael continues to strengthen this morning with wind speeds up to 150 mph as it approaches Panama City.
Previous story: Hurricane Michael exploded overnight into a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds and could strengthen before making landfall this afternoon.
Michael, which was 65 miles south-southwest of Panama City as of 10 a.m., is moving north at 13 mph.
Although there were some thoughts Michael would reach minimal Cat 4 strength, no one was forecasting this kind of rapid intensification. No Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have previously hit Florida's Panhandle. A Category 5 storm begins with winds at 157 mph.
New construction just collapsed in front of me in Panama City Beach from #hurricanemichael!!! It is going bad fast! pic.twitter.com/CG5R8jcUuf
— Marc Weinberg (@MarcWeinbergWX) October 10, 2018
Indian Pass, Florida view looking north over Indian Lagoon on the western side of Apalachicola Bay… EXTREME storm surge and wind gusts in excess of hurricane force happening now due to #Michael. @NWSTallahassee @spann pic.twitter.com/iq6GZvPIo7
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 10, 2018
It was at 2 a.m. this morning that Michael first became a Category 4 with 130 mph winds.
As of 6 a.m., its initial rain bands began spreading across the Panhandle. Hurricane Force-winds extend out up to 45 miles from Michael's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 185 miles.
"Satellite images of Michael's evolution on Tuesday night were, in a word, jaw-droppingl," said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for Weather Underground. "A massive blister of thunderstorms erupted and wrapped around the storm's eye, which had taken taking a surprisingly long time to solidify."
Michael's quick formation and forward speed left limited time for preparation compared to the five days of suspense between Florence's birth as a hurricane and its Category 1 landfall near Wrightsville Beach on Sept. 14.
"I'm 59 years old and lived here all my life and I don't think I've ever been this concerned," said Johnny Paul, who was boarding up his Wewa Outdoors shop on Tuesday in Wewahitchka, about 17 miles north of Mexico Beach. "When you wake up and see Jim Cantore is just an hour away, you get a little nervous."
Paul and his neighbors went to bed Tuesday thinking Michael was going to be a high-end Category 3. They woke up to a strong Category 4 with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee declaring; "This is as SERIOUS as it gets."
Landfall will be be near PCB/Mexico beach area. However, life threatening storm surge, Hurricane force winds, and heavy rainfall is expected all along the northeastern Gulf Coast. pic.twitter.com/ZWrJ658unx
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) October 10, 2018
STORM 2018: CHECK THE INTERACTIVE TRACKING MAP
Cantore, a Weather Channel broadcast meteorologist, was in Panama City Beach Tuesday morning. The Santa Rosa County Sheriff's Office issued a playful no trespassing warning for the veteran storm chaser saying it would prefer he make "non business-related visits" during winter months.
Paul said he was most worried about wind damage, but it was the flush of saltwater storm surge that emergency operations officials and National Hurricane Center forecasters spent extra time highlighting.
Depending on Michael's location at landfall, areas as far south Cedar Key could see up to 12 feet of storm surge if it peaks during Wednesday's high tide, with the Gulf of Mexico pushing 10 miles deep into the Apalachicola River to Hancock Bay.
EYE ON THE STORM: Get updates on the blog
"There's a little wiggle room still on intensity at landfall but the track has been pretty straight forward in terms of forecasting," said Chris Dolce, digital meteorologist for Weather.com, an IBM company. "It's pretty sparsely populated in some of those areas, so that is a bit of good news."
By tonight, Michael should be well inland and starting to make a sharp turn to the northwest as an area of low pressure picks it up, catapulting it through Georgia and the Carolinas as a tropical storm. Up to 10 inches of rain is possible in the Panhandle, but Michael's expedited trip toward the Atlantic means a lower four to six inches in Georgia and the Carolinas.
Only nine #hurricanes on record (since 1851) have made landfall in the Florida Panhandle with a lower pressure than #Michael's current pressure of 957 hPa – the most recent of these is Hurricane Dennis (2005). pic.twitter.com/dc3DIgkJVY
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 9, 2018
9 major #hurricanes have made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on record (since 1851). Here's the landfall stats on each of these storms. #HurricaneMichael #Michael pic.twitter.com/ocGsHS0q8i
Gov. Rick Scott, who declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and has assembled 2,500 National Guard troops to help with recovery, called Michael a "monstrous storm" that "keeps getting more dangerous."
Leon County Emergency Operations Manager Kevin Peters said Michael is the "most extreme" storm to hit the area since 1894. State capital Tallahassee, which suffered widespread power outages after Category 1 Hurricane Hermine in 2016, is in Leon County.
"If you don't follow warnings from officials, this storm could kill you," Scott said.
This morning, Scott was interviewed by Cantore on The Weather Channel.
"I'm worried about the people who stayed behind, this thing came up fast," Scott said. "It's coming, it's coming right now.
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 10, 2018 October 10, 2018 Categories WeatherTags mobile rotator, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, news, newsfeed, NOAA, outlook, pbpmobile, South Florida Water Management District, spcontent, storm 2016, storm2018, Tropical Storm, tropical weather, Weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on BREAKING: Record-shattering Michael makes landfall between Mexico Beach and Panama City
BREAKING: Michael reaches Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds
UPDATE 5 p.m.: Hurricane Michael has gained Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds.
As of the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Michael was 295 miles south of Panama City moving north at 12 mph.
The storm, which is forecast to hit the Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and the Big Bend region Wednesday afternoon, is expected to intensify to 125 mph before landfall. A Category 3 storm has winds between 111 and 129 mph.
As the Panhandle braces for major Hurricane Michael, Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the far eastern Atlantic.
Nadine, which is no threat to land, is notable as the 14th named storm this hurricane season, which was forecast to have less activity than during a normal year. An average hurricane season has 12 named storms.
The 11 a.m. advisory for Hurricane Michael shows it is up to a 110-mph Category 2 hurricane – one mile below a Category 3.
The forecast for Hurricane Michael changed little overnight with the National Hurricane Center having it make landfall between Fort Walton Beach and the Big Bend region tomorrow.
As of the 8 a.m. advisory, Michael was 395 miles south of Panama City, moving north-northwest at 12 mph.
Michael is forecast to reach the Panhandle as a major Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday with 125 mph winds. That's just 4 miles below a Category 4 storm.
RELATED: Storm 2018, hurricane central
"It seems like it's coming right for us. I live four to five blocks from the water, so I'm scared," said Tessa Whitaker, who lives in Carabelle, a city on St. George Sound about an hour southwest of Tallahassee. "People are boarding up and buying a lot of ice and hot dogs and liquor."
Michael is the 13th named storm of the 2018 hurricane season and the seventh hurricane.
Storm surge from Hurricane Michael is forecast to be higher than 9 feet and up to 12 feet in some areas of the Big Bend region of Florida.
Storm surge that could be greater than 6 feet is forecast as far south as Crystal River with more than 9 feet into Apalachicola Bay.
"You could see storm surge 10 to 12 miles inland," said National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham. "If you live along some of these rivers, you have to think the waters are going to come up there. Even inland, you've got to be prepared."
If it makes landfall as a Category 3 it will be the first major hurricane to hit the Panhandle since Hurricane Dennis came ashore near Pensacola on July 10, 2005 with 130 mph winds.
The most recent October landfalling hurricane in the Florida Panhandle was Hurricane Opal — a Category 3 storm in 1995.
In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Depression 15 has also formed.
The system, which would be named Nadine, if it becomes a tropical storm, is no threat to land.
Since 1851, Florida has had 36 hurricanes make October landfalls, including 10 major hurricanes. That's five times higher than runner-up Louisiana, which has experienced seven October hurricane hits, including three major hurricanes, according to National Hurricane Center records.
The most recent major October hurricane to hit Florida was 2005's Wilma.
"This has been different from a lot of the storms we've seen since I've been governor," said Gov. Rick Scott. "It's fast, this is coming very fast. It could speed up. It could slow down. We don't know. And we don't know exactly where it's going to hit yet."
October storms typically form in the Caribbean and are most likely to track into southwest Florida, taking paths similar to Wilma, which hit near Cape Romano south of Marco Island.
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The clockwise churn of an area of high pressure centered over Delaware is what's keeping Michael on a more northerly path toward the Panhandle and away from South Florida, said AccuWeather senior hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
After landfall, a cold front traveling across the U.S. is expected to pick Michael up and take it through Georgia and the Carolinas.
"When you look at computer models, Michael will either be a strong Category 2 or low Category 3, but it doesn't really make a difference if you are talking 5 knots," Kottlowski said. "If it doesn't reach Category 3 but has 110 mph winds, it's still going to be a bad storm."
Michael is forecast to remain a tropical storm as it cuts through Georgia, the Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 9, 2018 October 9, 2018 Categories WeatherTags National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, news, newsfeed, NHC, NOAA, outlook, pbpmobile, spcontent, storm2018, Weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on BREAKING: Michael reaches Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds
Hurricane Michael strengthens, forecast to become 'dangerous' major hurricane
UPDATE 5 p.m.: Hurricane Michael strengthened to 80 mph this afternoon as it moves north at 9 mph toward Florida's Panhandle.
It is forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds near landfall on Wednesday.
A hurricane warning is now in place for the Gulf Coast of Florida from the Alabama / Florida border east to the Suwanee River. A hurricane watch has been issued from the Alabama / Florida border west to the Mississippi / Alabama border.
Today in Tallahassee, there are lines for gas and the local Walmart can't restock water fast enough. This is the dwindling bread aisle. Good to know @scontorno would do well here because no one wants the vegan loaves. pic.twitter.com/6NOTsfnUam
— Emily L. Mahoney (@mahoneysthename) October 8, 2018
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Michael to a hurricane.
As of the 11 a.m. advisory, Michael had 75 mph winds and is now expected to reach Category 3 strength within 48 hours.
"Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity," the NHC wrote in its key messages.
Florida State University is closing beginning Tuesday and will resume normal business operations on Monday.
"This one is big," said Tessa Whitaker, who was working this morning at Harry's Bar and Package in the small coastal town of Carabelle. "I live 4 to 5 blocks from the water, so I'm scared."
Michael is unusual because it formed from a disturbance from the Central American monsoon, rather than a tropical wave, said Jeff Masters, Weather Underground cofounder and a meteorologist at The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
"We saw a couple of these form last year and they were just big ugly messes that had trouble getting organized," Masters ssaid. "But Michael managed to break away and took advantage of very warm ocean temperatures."
The National Weather Service is warning that minor flooding is possible in southeast Florida today as seasonal king tides coincide with Michael's growing presence in the Gulf of Mexico.
South winds pulled through South Florida by the burgeoning tropical cyclone will also bring in moist tropical air, causing increasing rain and squally weather. There is up to a 10 percent chance that Palm Beach County could feel tropical storm-force winds tomorrow as Michael moves deeper into the Gulf.
High tides today are around 8:30 a.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday's high tides are about 9:30 a.m. and 9:45 p.m.
HURRICANE CENTRAL: Storm 2018 hurricane tracking, supply lists
Tropical Storm Michael is nearing hurricane strength this morning with winds at 70 mph as of the 8 a.m. advisory. It is about 120 miles east-northeast of Cozumel and moving north at 7 mph.
Hurricane watches have been issued for areas of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama border to the Suwanee River.
A storm surge watch has been issued from Navarre to Anna Maria Island.
The system, is forecast to reach 110 mph in the two-day forecast window, which is just 1 mph shy of a Category 3, major hurricane.
This is considerably higher than what was forecast at this time yesterday, a detail noted in this morning's discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
"An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and the maximum winds have increased to near 60 knots (69 mph)," wrote NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg. "This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear, which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours."
Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in wind speeds of 34 mph or more over a 24-hour period.
On Sunday, Michael's cloud tops were as cold as -112 degrees.
"Cloud tops this cold can only occur if the updrafts pushing them are very vigorous," said Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters in his Cat 6 blog.
Michael is forecast to make landfall in the Panhandle on Wednesday as a strong Category 2 hurricane.
The excellent ECMWF model landfalls Michael into the Florida Big Bend east of Panama City or SW of Tallahassee on Thursday as a major hurricane (941 mb pressure)
Normally, systems weaken as they approach FL Gulf Coast … hopefully Michael will too … pic.twitter.com/wC0o2YhPZz
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) October 8, 2018
In 2005, Hurricane Ivan made landfall near Gulf Shores, Ala., on Sept. 16, doing severe damage to Pensacola. In 2005, Hurricane Dennis made landfall near Pensacola as a Category 3 hurricane.
University of Georgia's Atmospheric Sciences Program Director J. Marshall Shepherd said he's concerned the Panhandle isn't prepared for a major hurricane.
"If Hurricane Michael becomes a major hurricane, there is the real threat of 'major hurricane amnesia,'" Shepherd wrote in Forbes this morning. "If you have not experienced something in nearly 13 years, do you remember what it is like or how to prepare? And with the rapid growth of the coastal communities around Destin and Panama City, there are certainly new residents that have not experienced a major hurricane at all."
Five hurricanes of Cat 2 strength or stronger have affected areas within 200 nautical miles of Tallahassee since 1877. Opal is highlighted in white.
But October storms are not unusual.
Since 1851, Florida has had 36 hurricanes make October landfalls, including 10 major hurricanes, which is considered a Category 3 or higher. That's five times higher than runner-up Louisiana, which has experienced seven October hurricane hits, including three majorhurricanes.
Florida's October hurricane numbers are nearly as high as the peak month of September, when Florida has experienced 39 October hurricane landfalls, 19 of which were Cat 3 or higher, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.
Gov. Rick Scott has issued a state of emergency for 26 counties ahead of Michael.
Up to 11 feet of storm surge is possible from Indian Pass to Crystal River. Up to 7 feet is possible from the Okaloosa / Walton county line to Indian Pass.
Michael's formation continues to keep the 2018 hurricane season above normal for named storms with 13, compared to the average for this time of year, which is 10. There have also been 6 hurricanes, when there are normally 5, and the accumulated cyclone energy is at 96.9 when it's normally at 87.7, according to Colorado State University.
The reason for Florida's vulnerability deep into October is largely a function of seasonal shifts in wind patterns and sea-surface temperatures.
In early summer, most storms form in the Caribbean Sea as the atmosphere starts its summer wind up and the mid-level African Easterly Jet is just beginning to spin up waves that will begin rolling off the continent in August and September.
Those tropical waves, which become the big Cape Verde hurricanes, travel the Atlantic east to west and have more options for routing, heading into the Gulf of Mexico, smacking the East Coast or wandering harmlessly off into the northern Atlantic.
But by October, mid-latitude wintertime air starts to seep into the tropical Atlantic, increasing the westerly wind shear to muzzle African tropical waves that also find cooler sea surface temperatures.
Instead, storms find room to grow in the deeply warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Once in the Gulf, early wintertime troughs of low pressure digging down through the U.S. can pick storms up and fling them at Florida.
For Palm Beach County, Michael will ensure that the rainy season goes out with a bang.
The dry season begins Oct. 15, but it will be wet and stormy through this week with rain chances as high as 60 percent through Friday.
Rain totals through Saturday could be as high as 2 inches, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 8, 2018 October 8, 2018 Categories WeatherTags allpbc, hurricane michael, mobile rotator, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, news, newsfeed, NOAA, outlook, pbpmobile, rotator, spcontent, tropical weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on Hurricane Michael strengthens, forecast to become 'dangerous' major hurricane
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Michael aims for Gulf; Florida prepares for Category 2 hurricane on Panhandle
11 p.m. UPDATE: Florida Gov. Rick Scott today warned that Tropical Storm Michael, which appears to be headed for the Florida Panhandle, could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds up to 100 miles per hour by the time it makes landfall at midweek.
Scott issued an order for a state of emergency for 26 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend area. The declaration will free up resources for storm preparation.
"This storm will be life-threatening and extremely dangerous," Scott said after receiving a briefing at the State Emergency Operations Center.
The governor warned that storm surge could affect areas of Florida not in the storm's direct path.
"If this storm hit Panama City, Tampa could still have storm surge," said Scott, referring to two Florida cities about 375 miles apart by highway. "Every family must be prepared."
Continue reading "UPDATE: Tropical Storm Michael aims for Gulf; Florida prepares for Category 2 hurricane on Panhandle"
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 7, 2018 October 7, 2018 Categories Michael, tropical weatherTags mobile rotator, National Hurricane Center, news, newsfeed, pbpmobile, rotator, Tropical Storm, tropical weatherLeave a comment on UPDATE: Tropical Storm Michael aims for Gulf; Florida prepares for Category 2 hurricane on Panhandle
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Michael could form Sunday, take aim at Gulf coast
11 p.m. UPDATE: A disturbance off the Central American coast is likely to grow into a tropical storm that could bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico, Cuba and the U.S. Gulf coast, the National Hurricane Center says.
Forecasters said Tropical Storm Michael is likely to form Sunday night and could reach the Gulf coast by Wednesday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the western tip of Cuba, while a tropical storm watch has been called for the resort region of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Forecasters said they don't project the storm to reach hurricane force, but it could bring 3 to 7 inches of rain to western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.
At 11 p.m., the disturbance was about 120 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico, and heading north at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.
6 p.m. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, including a tropical storm warning for Cuba.
At 5 p.m., the system was about 290 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba and moving northwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 mph, 9 mph shy of tropical storm strength.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. There's an 80 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and 90 percent chance over the next 5 days.
On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
• Check the latest Tropical Outlook
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now has an 80 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday as the system moves slowly northward.
If the area of low pressure becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.
The disturbance will bring torrential rains to part of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba into next week. Formation chance within the next five days is high at 90 percent.
Rain chances in Palm Beach County will increase on Monday to 50 percent, and raise even higher to 60 percent on Wednesday. Temperatures will be consistent with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s, according to the National Weather Service.
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 6, 2018 October 6, 2018 Categories Developing storms, tropical weatherTags news, newsfeed, pbpmobile, storm2018, Tropical Storm, tropical weatherLeave a comment on UPDATE: Tropical Storm Michael could form Sunday, take aim at Gulf coast
NEW: Red tide sample tests in the high range at Carlin Park in Jupiter
A sample of water taken at Carlin Park in Jupiter on Wednesday has tested in the high range for Karenia brevis, which is the algae that causes red tide.
It is the only sample that has so far tested in the high range in Palm Beach County that has been released by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. A sample taken by the Loxahatchee River District about 1.2 miles west of the Jupiter Inlet also tested in the high range.
The results mean more than 1 million Karenia brevis cells per liter were found – a level that can cause even normally healthy people to have intense symptoms, including coughing, watery eyes and wheezing.
You can find real time sampling results on FWC's red tide website.
A forecast released this morning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows moderate levels of red tide irritation in Palm Beach County at least through Tuesday.
The forecast, which before only listed Palm Beach County in the moderate level, now includes Miami-Dade, Broward, Martin and St. Lucie counties in the moderate category.
RELATED: Red tide confusion as county and cities go back-and-forth on beach closings
Moderate means normally healthy people with no respiratory problems will feel mild effects from the red tide, including sneezing, coughing and watery eyes.
All of Palm Beach County-managed beaches are open today, as is Lake Worth, Oceanfront Park in Boynton Beach, Delray Beach and Boca Raton. Palm Beach's Midtown beach remains closed.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "harmful algal bloom" forecast uses satellite images, wind direction, and test results of Karenia brevis concentrations to determine the level of wheezing, coughing and eye watering that beachgoers may experience.
While NOAA's algae forecasts are common on the west coast where red tide is a nearly annual occurrence and has been present since October 2017, the last full red tide forecast for Palm Beach County was in January 2008.
The red tide reached southeast Florida by traveling on the Florida Current from the southwest coast of the state and into the Gulf Stream – a conveyor belt of warm water that parallels Florida and redistributes heat from the equatorial areas. The Gulf Stream begins to move deeper into the western Atlantic near Cape Hatteras.
Lake Worth Ocean Rescue Lifeguard Mike Morrill prepares to wipe the beach closed notification off the information board at Lake Worth Beach. Although moderate levels of red tide were found off Lake Worth's coast, the beach was reopened today.
"I won't be surprised if we start seeing red tide off of South Carolina," said Robert Weisberg, a University of South Florida professor of physical oceanography. "Once it gets into the Florida Current, it's only a matter of a week or two before it's up off the Carolinas."
RELATED: Red tide facts, your questions answered
Easterly winds, such as what Florida has felt since late last week from a high pressure system over the state, can push the single-cell Karenia brevis toward shore. Once there, they can live and reproduce separate from the Gulf Stream.
"If it was just a blob in the Gulf Stream that was going to go by, it would have already," Weisberg said. "Once it's in inshore waters, it will stay and reside there until it dies."
But it's usually not a lasting visitor because the continental shelf ends close to shore, leaving an expanse of deep water when red tide prefers the shallower waters off the west coast.
About 500 yards from the ocean on Palm Beach is when B.J. Bergeron said he and his family started coughing.
Bergeron, his wife Melony, and sons Blake, 10, and Brant 15, are visiting from Texas and had heard about the red tide but had never experienced it. On Friday, they wanted to walk on the beach.
"We're not sure that we should now," said Melony. "This is like nothing I've ever felt before."
Newly printed signs warning visitors of the red tide outbreak along A1A, south of Indiantown Road in Jupiter on October 4, 2018. (Richard Graulich / The Palm Beach Post)
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 5, 2018 October 5, 2018 Categories WeatherTags National Weather Service, news, newsfeed, NOAA, outlook, red tide, spcontent, storm2018, toxic algae, tropical weather, Weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on NEW: Red tide sample tests in the high range at Carlin Park in Jupiter
Tropical cyclone chances increase to 70 percent
UPDATE 2:10 p.m.: The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico to 70 percent.
Forecasters said a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week. If the area of low pressure becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.
Even if a tropical cyclone doesn't form, tropical moisture will move north and northeastward in the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center is giving a group of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean a 60 percent chance of development over five days.
Forecasters said showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua became more concentrated this morning.
A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week as it drifts slowly northwestward.
If it were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.
According to Weather Underground's Cat 6 blog, a similar system became Tropical Depression 16 at this time last year and would later become Hurricane Nate, which made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 storm on Oct. 7.
"Nate brought torrential rains and devastating flooding to Costa Rica, causing $562 million in damage (1% of their $57 billion GDP) – their most expensive tropical cyclone in history," Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters in the blog. "Nate also did $225 million in damage in the U.S. The name Nate was retired after the 2017 season because of its impact on Central America, where 46 people died."
Maps showing tracks of TCs fm position east of Honduras/Nicaragua (close to where trop distbnce is now) for September (left) and October (right). Can see the climatological shift toward right in the steering currents. From screen at CSC hurricane website https://t.co/CG6N95IxxU pic.twitter.com/lY5M0nvY5z
— Dan Reilly (@DReillyWx) October 4, 2018
The South Florida Water Management District said the system should be in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday, and regardless of its track, an increase of rains for South Florida, "some potentially significant", could begin early in the week.
National Weather Service forecasters also predict an area of low pressure will develop along the trailing track of Tropical Storm Leslie and start moving west. The counterclockwise flow around that system will pull deep tropical moisture around it as it approaches Florida mid week.
Forecasters said it's too early to "speak definitively on widespread rains or flooding threats."
"Regardless, it still looks like a wet and stormy pattern through at least mid week, and it will be something that will be watched closely over the coming days," meteorologists wrote in their morning forecast.
The Weather Prediction Center's rain forecast through Wednesday.
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 5, 2018 October 5, 2018 Categories WeatherTags hurricane, National Weather Service, news, NHC, NOAA, outlook, pbpmobile, spcontent, storm 2017, storm2018, Tropical Storm, tropical weather, Weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on Tropical cyclone chances increase to 70 percent
JUST IN: Palm Beach County-managed beaches to reopen Friday
UPDATE 5:05 p.m.: Palm Beach County will reopen the beaches it manages on Friday.
The news comes as Boynton Beach says it will also reopen Oceanfront Park on Friday.
UPDATE 4:30 p.m.: Lake worth will reopen its beach on Friday.
"Although patrons will be able to swim in the ocean, they do so at their own risk," city officials said in a press release. "A red and purple flag will be flying indicating high hazard conditions."
UPDATE 1:15 p.m.: All beaches managed by Palm Beach County are now closed after staff complained of throat, nose and eye irritation consistent with red tide exposure.
Parking lots, picnic areas, and pavilions not on the beach will continue to be open.
Boynton Beach's Oceanfront Park is closed today out of an "abundance of caution."
Officials said there have been no reports of respiratory concerns, but that with many county beaches closed because of red tide issues, they thought it was the safe thing to do.
"We just want to proceed carefully and make a good informed decision," said Wally Majors, Boynton Beach Recreation and Park Department director. "Standing here, I'm having no problems at all, but when we are dealing with people who are elderly or might have medical conditions, we want to err on the side of caution."
Majors said he's seen no test results off Boynton's coastline and doesn't know if any have been taken.
Eleven water samples taken from Palm Beach Inlet to Jupiter Inlet tested positive for low to moderate levels of Karenia brevis.
Waves break at Phipps Ocean Park in Palm Beach, Florida on October 2, 2018. A red tide outbreak has prompted the beach to be closed. (Allen Eyestone / The Palm Beach Post)
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 4, 2018 October 4, 2018 Categories WeatherTags bnblogs, hurricane, mobile rotator, National Hurricane Center, news, newsfeed, pbpmobile, spcontent, tropical weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on JUST IN: Palm Beach County-managed beaches to reopen Friday
BREAKING: State team deployed to investigate MacArthur Beach fish kill
Dead fish wash up on the beach south of Donald Ross Road during an outbreak of red tide in Juno Beach on October 3, 2018. (Richard Graulich / The Palm Beach Post)
UPDATE 5 p.m.: A state team of biologists will investigate a fish kill reported today at MacArthur Beach State Park.
According to a press release:
Parks staff is working to perform clean-up as quickly as possible, while coordinating with FWC to investigate any potential causes. To date, at Governor Scott's direction, DEP has distributed grant funding of more than $10 million to support efforts in impacted counties to mitigate and combat red tide.
UPDATE 4:45 p.m.: Most Palm Beach County beaches will remain closed Thursday, with the exception of Phil Foster Park, Peanut Island and Ocean Ridge Hammock.
Officials said this afternoon that people are still complaining of scratchy throats and wheezing – symptoms of a red tide that was found in low to moderate quantities in waters from Palm Beach Inlet to Jupiter Inlet.
Also, "limited fish kills on some beaches" have been reported.
To report a fish kill, call the FWC's hotline at 800-636-0511.
UPDATE: The Florida Department of Environmental Protection said dead fish are being cleaned up off of MacArthur Beach Beach State Park and will be tested for red tide.
The park is closed. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission will test for the Karenia brevis toxin to see if that was the cause of death.
Previous story: Palm Beach County is posting specially-made signs warning of red tide at its beaches today, which remain closed as lifeguards continue to report coughing, scratchy throats and watery eyes.
Aquatics director Laurie Schobelock said the new vinyl signs being made by the county's sign shop will be posted at beach information boards and at beach entrances if there are extra.
She said the county is getting a few calls reporting dead fish, but that she was at Juno Beach this morning and didn't see dead fish. She did feel the red tide-induced scratch in her throat and said it was a little sore until she returned to her office.
PHOTOS: Red tide hits Palm Beach County
Chopper 5 spots large amount of dead fish along North Palm Beach shore https://t.co/8GQAd9FEYR @Chopper5WPTV pic.twitter.com/r2TOxQJp9d
— WPTV (@WPTV) October 3, 2018
These dead fish washed up at Boynton Inlet. We're hearing reports of dead fish at other locations too. Checking for possible link to the red tide that's shown up on our coast in recent days. @CBS12 pic.twitter.com/Ajsag1FPNy
— Chuck Weber (@ChuckWeber12) October 3, 2018
RELATED: What the red tide samples showed, and other algae questions answered
"This is all a moving target," Schobelock said about managing the red tide situation. "The decision about closing the beaches tomorrow will be made later in the day."
The county had expected to open beaches today, but reversed course after NOAA released a forecast that predicted "moderate" levels of red tide along Palm Beach County through at least Friday.
New red tide test results are expected today from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, but it's unknown if they will include information beyond what was released Monday that showed low to moderate levels of Karenia brevis at 11 sites tested.
"The biggest thing is if anyone is having any sort of respiratory issue they should stay away from the beaches," Schobelock said. "Exercise caution and be aware this is going on."
Delray Beach resident Harvey Latidus said he walked his dog this morning near Atlantic Avenue and felt what he likened to "tear gas."
He was concerned there were no signs explaining what was happening.
"It got me good this morning," he said. "They have the red flags out so they don't want you in the water, but there are no signs, there's nothing. The city could send a flier or give notice to people in regards to this."
Red tide, which grows in saltwater, is naturally occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. This summer, onshore winds pushed the toxin close to beaches that were fouled by massive fish kills, as well as dead manatees, turtles and dolphins.
How the red tide got to Palm Beach County is still a matter of debate, although the general theory is it got caught in the Florida Current, which runs through the Florida Straits into the Gulf Stream.
Richard Stumpf, a NOAA oceanographer who tracks algae blooms by satellite, said a red tide bloom passed west of the Marquesas Keys, which are west of Key West, in mid-September. Following that, a mild algae bloom formed offshore of the upper Keys and stretched west to the Gulf Stream.
"That moved through the Palm Beach area over the weekend when you had strong easterly winds," Stumpf said. "The winds would help accumulate cells at the shore concentrating them from a mild to a dense bloom."
RELATED: Fighting, fingerpointing no way to fix toxic algae issue
Malcolm McFarland, a research associate at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute in Fort Pierce, said the natural currents didn't look like they were in the right place to pick up the red tide in the Gulf of Mexico.
"It could be a local bloom entirely separate from what's happening on the west coast," McFarland said. "And that would be even more interesting."
Author Staff WriterPosted on October 3, 2018 October 3, 2018 Categories WeatherTags bnblogs, hurricane, mobile rotator, NASA, National Hurricane Center, news, red tide, South Florida Water Management District, spcontent, storm2018, toxic algae, Tropical Storm, tropical weather, Weather, weatherplusLeave a comment on BREAKING: State team deployed to investigate MacArthur Beach fish kill