Bad news about bad guys
Violent crime appears to have stopped falling
United StatesJun 17th 2006 edition
AMERICANS worry about crime. In a big country with hyperactive media, any sensational horror is quickly broadcast from coast to coast, making many people nervous. Last year, for example, after a teenager shot dead ten people in and around a Minnesota high school, pollsters asked a sample of Americans how likely it was that a similar massacre might occur in their own town. Nearly three-quarters said it was "very" or "somewhat" likely.
The FBI's announcement this week that violent crime rose by 2.5% between 2004 and 2005 will soothe no nerves. Nor will the news that murders jumped by 5%—the biggest spike in 15 years. The new numbers should be treated with caution; they do not yet take account of population growth, which is about 1% a year. But still, some experts worry that America's long run of success in reducing crime may be over.
Why did it fall? Some credit "zero-tolerance" policing. Some think long jail terms keep the worst offenders out of circulation. Others look at demographic factors, such as the legalisation of abortion in 1973, which some argue, controversially, prevented many potential criminals from being born. Now their number is rising again.
The sharpest increases in murders last year occurred in the Midwest, in cities such as Omaha and Milwaukee. Granted, a 55% increase in Omaha is only 11 more murders. But the numbers highlight a trend for the big gangs of New York and Los Angeles to spread into heartland towns. "A small group of youths are carrying guns, wearing colours and killing each other over trivial disputes," says George Kelling of the School of Criminal Justice at Rutgers University. Mostly, it is not about turf, but about "dissing", he says.
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline "Bad news about bad guys"
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