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Will The Indie Spirits Nominees Showcase Oscar Gems?
Posted on November 21, 2019 by toddmthatcher
This afternoon, the nominations for the 35th Independent Spirit Awards were released as we prepare for the onslaught of Oscar precursors to follow. And make no mistake – the Indie Spirits are indeed a precursor. In this decade from 2010-2018, five of the nine Best Feature winners emerged victorious with the Academy for Best Picture: 2011's The Artist, 2013's 12 Years a Slave, 2014's Birdman, 2015's Spotlight, and 2016's Moonlight. Some of these years have three or four of the five nominees get Oscar nods in the big race.
However, 2018 marked the first year of this decade when none of the five nominated pictures at the Indies garnered any Academy love. I don't expect that to occur for a second year in a row.
In this post, I'll break down Feature, Director, and the four acting races and what it might mean for Oscar:
Nominees: A Hidden Life, Clemency, The Farewell, Marriage Story, Uncut Gems
First things first: Marriage Story is going to get a Best Picture nomination and probably wins here. And it might be the only one here that does. The Farewell has a decent shot and Uncut Gems is a potential sleeper (though I wouldn't bet on it).
That said, Gems did tie The Lighthouse for most Indie mentions (5). And that brings us back to Marriage Story. The voters here chose to give it a special Robert Altman award honoring the team behind it. That includes cast members Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Laura Dern, and Alan Alda. They all probably would've heard their names here had that not occurred and same goes for director Noah Baumbach. If that seems like a bit of a cheat (taking out probable winners like Driver and Baumbach), I wouldn't argue. The silver lining is that it does make some of these categories more interesting.
Nominees: Robert Eggers (The Lighthouse), Alma Hor'el (Honey Boy), Julius Onah (Luce), Ben and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems), Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
Like Best Feature, 2018 saw no directors recognized get Academy attention. With Baumbach getting his Altman award and out of the running, that could certainly happen again as I don't even have any of these directors in my top ten Oscar possibilities. Perhaps this could help spur chatter for the Safdies or Scafaria. Again… I wouldn't bet on it.
Best Female Lead
Nominees: Karen Allen (Colewell), Hong Chau (Driveways), Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell), Mary Kay Place (Diane), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Six out of nine winners here from 2010-2018 went onto win the Best Actress statue: Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Brie Larson (Room), and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).
Even with Johansson not included, it could be 7/10 as Zellweger is my current Oscar front runner. Woodard and Moss stand shots at nods. The other three need not shop for red carpet dresses.
One noticeable omission is Awkwafina in The Farewell, who many are predicting for Oscar attention. I currently had her on the outside looking in at sixth. That could slide when I update my estimates on Monday.
Best Male Lead
Nominees: Chris Galust (Give Me Liberty), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Luce), Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Matthias Schoenarts (The Mustang)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) are the three Indie/Oscar recipients. Only in 2015 and (yes) 2018 did no nominees get Oscar nods…
I expect that to occur again. I believe only Sandler stands a chance, but it's a reach based on severe competition.
Best Supporting Female
Nominees: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Taylor Russell (Waves), Lauren Spencer (Give Me Liberty), Octavia Spencer (Luce), Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)
Four winners here have picked up Academy trophies – Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), and the past two winners Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk).
With soft front runner Laura Dern in the Marriage Story special category thing, we could still see a third year in a row match with Lopez. Zhou and Spencer (to a lesser degree) may also find themselves in the Oscar mix.
And with Taylor Russell's nod here, it's a good time to mention that Waves really came up short with the Indies today. That doesn't help its Oscar viability.
Best Supporting Male
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Noah Jupe (Honey Boy), Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy), Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), Wendell Pierce (Burning Cane)
This category is another ultra crowded one for Oscar attention, but Dafoe and LaBeouf are legit contenders for nods. Not so with the other three. The omission of Sterling K. Brown in Waves is a surprise.
There have been four Indie/Oscar victors this decade: Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). With Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) as likely favorites for the Academy, I wouldn't expect a fifth match.
And there you have it, folks! My take on the Indies and which Oscar gems they could produce…
Posted in Oscar Predictions	| Tagged 12 Years a Slave, A Hidden Life, academy awards, Adam Driver, Adam Sandler, Al Pacino, Alan Alda, Alfre Woodard, Allison Janney, Alma Har'el, Ben Safdie, Birdman, Black Swan, Blue Jasmine, brad pitt, Brie Larson, Burning Cane, Casey Affleck, Cate Blanchett, Chris Galust, Clemency, Colewell, Dallas Buyers Club, Diane, Driveways, Elisabeth Moss, Frances McDormand, Give Me Liberty, Her Smell, Honey Boy, Hong Chau, Hustlers, I Tonya, If Beale Street Could Talk, Independent Spirit Awards, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto, Jean Dujardin, jennifer lawrence, Jennifer Lopez, Jonathan Majors, Josh Safdie, Judy, Julianne Moore, Julius Onah, Karen Allen, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Laura Dern, Lauren Spencer, Lorene Scafaria, Luce, Lupita Nyong'o, Manchester by the Sea, Marriage Story, Mary Kay Place, Matthew McConaughey, Matthias Schoenaerts, Moonlight, movies, Natalie Portman, Noah Baumbach, Noah Jupe, Octavia Spencer, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Oscar Predictions, Oscar Watch, oscars, Patricia Arquette, Regina King, Renee Zellweger, Robert Altman, Robert Eggers, Robert Pattinson, Room, Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, Shia LaBeouf, Shuzhen Zhou, silver linings playbook, Spotlight, Still Alice, Taylor Russell, The Artist, The Farewell, The Irishman, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, The Lighthouse, The Mustang, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Uncut Gems, Waves, Wendell Pierce, Whiplash, Willem Dafoe	| Leave a reply
Best Actress: A Look Back
Posted on October 31, 2018 by toddmthatcher
Back at it again with my look back at major Oscar races from 1990 to the present! We've arrived at Best Actress. If you missed my previous posts covering the Supporting performers, you can find them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/25/best-supporting-actor-a-look-back/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/20/best-supporting-actress-a-look-back/
As I did with those posts, I'm selecting my top 3 least surprising winners and top 3 upsets. I'm also giving you my personal pick for strongest and weakest fields from the past 28 years.
For starters, here's the list of winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Kathy Bates, Misery
1991 – Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
1992 – Emma Thompson, Howards End
1993 – Holly Hunter, The Piano
1994 – Jessica Lange, Blue Sky
1995 – Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking
1996 – Frances McDormand, Fargo
1997 – Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets
1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
1999 – Hilary Swank, Boys Don't Cry
2000 – Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
2001 – Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
2002 – Nicole Kidman, The Hours
2003 – Charlize Theron, Monster
2004 – Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2006 – Helen Mirren, The Queen
2007 – Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2008 – Kate Winslet, The Reader
2009 – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2010 – Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2011 – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012 – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014 – Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 – Brie Larson, Room
2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land
2017 – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
When it comes to Best Actress, I must say it's probably the race with the least amount of genuine upsets. Nearly every year, there's a pretty strong front-runner and they win – even more so than in Actor and the Supporting players. Of many non-surprises, here's my top ones:
3. Holly Hunter, The Piano
Hunter's work as a mute piano player in Jane Campion's period piece was the clear favorite over significant competition that included Angela Bassett in What's Love Got to Do With It? and the previous year's winner Emma Thompson in The Remains of the Day.
2. Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
One of Hollywood's biggest stars had already received nods for Steel Magnolias and Pretty Woman and there was little question that Brockovich would earn Roberts her first and only (so far) trip to the Oscar stage.
1. Charlize Theron, Monster
Theron's metamorphosis into serial killer Aileen Wuornos swept all precursors. The rest of the field was also fairly weak that year, making her the obvious victor.
And now the "upsets"…
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader
While not a surprise when she won Oscar night, the multi-nominated Winslet was expected for much of the year to get a nod for Revolutionary Road instead. Yet it was this Stephen Daldry drama that was selected instead.
2. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
This was a two-way contest between Cotillard and veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, with many believing the latter had the edge. It didn't turn out that way.
1. Hilary Swank, Boys Don't Cry and Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
This #1 comes with a caveat. It wasn't much of an upset by the time Swank won her double Oscars. What's interesting here is that she single-handedly denied two prime opportunities for the winless Annette Bening to get a statue for American Beauty and Being Julia.
We move to the fields. For weakest field, I'm selecting 1994 when Jessica Lange won for the little-seen Blue Sky. Other nominees were Jodie Foster in Nell, Miranda Richardson in Tom&Viv, Winona Ryder for Little Women, and Susan Sarandon in The Client.
Strongest group in my opinion goes to 2010 with Natalie Portman's victorious role in Black Swan. The rest of that impressive field is Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence's first nomination in Winter's Bone, and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).
Best Actor is next, folks! Stay tuned…
Posted in Oscar History	| Tagged academy awards, American Beauty, Angela Bassett, Annette Bening, As Good As It Gets, Away from Her, Being Julia, Black Swan, Blue Jasmine, Blue Sky, Blue Valentine, Boys Don't Cry, Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett, Charlize Theron, Dead Man Walking, emma stone, Emma Thompson, Erin Brockovich, Fargo, Frances McDormand, gwyneth paltrow, Halle Berry, Helen Hunt, Helen Mirren, Hilary Swank, Holly Hunter, Howards End, Jane Campion, jennifer lawrence, Jessica Lange, Jodie Foster, Julia Roberts, Julianne Moore, Julie Christie, Kate Winslet, Kathy Bates, La La Land, La Vie en Rose, Little Women, Marion Cotillard, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Million Dollar Baby, Miranda Richardson, Misery, Monster, Monster's Ball, movies, Natalie Portman, Nell, nicole kidman, oscars, Pretty Woman, Rabbit Hole, Reese Witherspoon, Revolutionary Road, Room, sandra bullock, Shakespeare in Love, silver linings playbook, Steel Magnolias, Stephen Daldry, Still Alice, Susan Sarandon, The Blind Side, The Client, The Hours, The Iron Lady, The Kids Are All Right, The Piano, The Queen, The Reader, The Remains of the Day, The Silence of the Lambs, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Tom and Viv, Walk the Line, What's Love Got to Do With It?, Winona Ryder, Winter's Bone	| Leave a reply
The Shape of Oscar 2017
Posted on March 5, 2018 by toddmthatcher
Well, the 90th Annual Academy Awards have come and – after 220 minutes of ceremony – gone. This is my annual wrap up of the show and (of course most importantly) how I did with my predictions!
In short, not too shabby…
I went 19/21 on my predictions – missing out on just Best Original Song ("Remember Me" from Coco won over my upset pick "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall and A Fantastic Woman took Foreign Film over The Insult). Neither were a surprise.
In fact, the night was rather predictable as far as winners. The Shape of Water was the big victor, taking Picture, Director (Guillermo del Toro), Production Design, and Original Score. The acting winners (Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Allison Janney in I, Tonya) were the wise ones to have in the pool. Get Out got its recognition via Jordan Peele's Original Screenplay. Legends like James Ivory (for his Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay) and cinematographer Roger Deakins (for his Blade Runner 2049 work) finally won gold statues.
Some other quick observations:
Jimmy Kimmel, as he was last year, is a solid host for the show. I would have no problem with him essentially being the new Billy Crystal and hosting every year or every other year. That said, it sure would be interesting to see what a Tiffany Haddish or Dave Chappelle could do with it.
That 90 years in movies Oscar montage could have gone on another half hour and I would have been fine with it.
I hope the Phantom Thread costume designer is enjoying his jet ski today.
And, of course, no Best Picture screw up! Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway can relax today.
And there you have it, folks! That's my shape of Oscar 2017.
Posted in Oscar Predictions	| Tagged A Fantastic Woman, academy awards, Allison Janney, Billy Crystal, Blade Runner 2049, Call Me by Your Name, Coco, Darkest Hour, Dave Chappelle, Faye Dunaway, Frances McDormand, Gary Oldman, Get Out, I Tonya, James Ivory, Jimmy Kimmel, Jordan Peele, Marshall, movies, oscars, Phantom Thread, Roger Deakins, Sam Rockwell, The Insult, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Tiffany Haddish, Warren Beatty	| Leave a reply
Todd's FINAL 2017 Oscar Winner Predictions
Posted on February 27, 2018 by toddmthatcher
Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.
I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I'm not perfect… and I certainly won't be. I'll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.
Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:
Nominees:
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Molly's Game
PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name
RUNNER-UP: Molly's Game
PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Coco
RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent
On Body and Soul
PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult
RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus
RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread
RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Wonder
RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes
RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me" from Coco
"Stand Up for Something" from Marshall
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
PREDICTED WINNER: "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall
RUNNER-UP: "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:
Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049
I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall
Posted in Oscar Predictions	| Tagged A Fantastic Woman, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, academy awards, All the Money in the World, Allison Janney, Baby Driver, Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Call Me by Your Name, Christopher Nolan, Christopher Plummer, Coco, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Darkest Hour, Denzel Washington, Dunkirk, Faces Places, Ferdinand, Frances McDormand, Gary Oldman, Get Out, Greta Gerwig, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guillermo del Toro, I Tonya, Icarus, Jordan Peele, Kong: Skull Island, Lady Bird, Last Men in Aleppo, Laurie Metcalf, Lesley Manville, Logan, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Margot Robbie, Marshall, Mary J. Blige, Meryl Streep, Molly's Game, movies, Mudbound, Octavia Spencer, On Body and Soul, Oscar Predictions, oscars, Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread, Richard Jenkins, Roman J. Israel Esq., Sally Hawkins, Sam Rockwell, Saoirse Ronan, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Strong Island, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, The Florida Project, The Greatest Showman, The Insult, The Post, The Shape of Water, The Square, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Timothee Chalamet, Victoria and Abdul, War for the Planet of the Apes, Willem Dafoe, Wonder, Woody Harrelson	| Leave a reply
Oscar Watch: Isle of Dogs
It's been four years since Wes Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel garnered a host of Oscar nominations. His follow-up is the stop-motion animated comedic adventure Isle of Dogs, which hits theaters stateside in March and has made its debut at the Berlin Film Festival. The pic (say its name out loud and pick up on its apparent affection for canines) features a whole bunch of familiar faces providing voice work including Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Bill Murray, Greta Gerwig, Scarlett Johansson, Jeff Goldblum, Frances McDormand, Ken Watanabe, Tilda Swinton, Bob Balaban, Courtney B. Vance, Harvey Keitel, Liev Schrieber, and F. Murray Abraham.
Reaction overseas to Anderson's latest is that he's delivered another winner. That likely means Dogs will follow in the steps of the director's Fantastic Mr. Fox, which was nominated for Best Animated Feature by the Academy. It ultimately lost to Pixar's Up and that powerhouse studio has The Incredibles 2 on deck this year. Additionally, it could be a factor for Mr. Anderson in Original Screenplay.
Yes, it's early but it could already be a safe assumption that the Dogs will be on display come nomination time next year.
My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Posted in Oscar Predictions	| Tagged academy awards, Berlin Film Festival, Bill Murray, Bob Balaban, Bryan Cranston, Courtney B. Vance, Edward Norton, F. Murray Abraham, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Frances McDormand, Greta Gerwig, Harvey Keitel, Isle of Dogs, Jeff Goldblum, Ken Watanabe, Liev Schreiber, movies, Oscar Predictions, Oscar Watch, oscars, Scarlett Johansson, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Tilda Swinton, Up, Wes Anderson	| Leave a reply
2017 Oscar Winner Predictions
Posted on January 24, 2018 by toddmthatcher
The 2017 Oscar nominations came out yesterday with yours truly battling a so so 71%. Naturally we now move to predicted winners in the categories. This will not be my last time predicting as I'll make final winner estimates on the eve of the ceremony.
For now, here's who and what I have taking home the prized golden statue:
That's all for now but expect final predictions shortly before the ceremony!
Posted in Oscar Predictions	| Tagged academy awards, Allison Janney, Blade Runner 2049, Call Me by Your Name, Coco, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Faces Places, Frances McDormand, Gary Oldman, Guillermo del Toro, I Tonya, movies, Oscar Predictions, Oscar Watch, oscars, Phantom Thread, Sam Rockwell, The Greatest Showman, The Insult, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, War for the Planet of the Apes	| Leave a reply
2017 Oscar Nominations Reaction
And they're out!
The nominations for this February's Academy Awards were revealed this morning by Andy Serkis and Tiffany Haddish. As always, there were some surprises and my months long quest for prediction perfection fell short. Of the 109 nominations, I correctly guessed 78 of them and that works out to 71% (a bit lower than previous years, but oh well).
Here I'll break down every category and tell you how I did with a bit of analysis:
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 7/9
Analysis: OK, lesson learned. When in doubt, predict NINE. The Best Picture category can fluctuate between 5 and 10 nominees, but that seems to be the magic number. I had The Florida Project in, but it was 8th out of my 8 predictions in likelihood so no big surprise there. Also not surprising is Darkest Hour getting in. A bit more so is the inclusion of Phantom Thread, which did far better this morning than I or almost anyone else figured.
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Analysis: As mentioned above, the surprise here is Anderson's nod for Phantom. Hard to believe but this is Nolan's first nomination for direction. I had Martin McDonagh's work in Three Billboards included. Worth noting: it's happened, but it's rare for a movie to win Best Picture without their maker being recognized. This could fuel even more talk that The Shape of Water is the front-runner in the big race.
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Analysis: One of the major questions going into this morning is whether recent allegations could prevent James Franco's nod for The Disaster Artist. We may never know the answer to that fully, but it was expected he'd be a safe inclusion until then and he missed out. In his place – Mr. Washington, nominated for the second year in a row. In short: this is Oldman's race to lose and it's highly doubtful he will.
Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)
Analysis: For quite some time, this has seemed like the five for Actress and it panned out that way.
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Analysis: Plummer got in for his highly publicized role after taking over for Kevin Spacey at very short notice over my prediction of Armie Hammer in Call Me by Your Name.
Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Analysis: The Phantom love continued with Manville's inclusion over my prediction for Hong Chau in Downsizing.
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly's Game, Mudbound
Analysis: In a bit of a surprise to me, Logan became the first superhero flick to get a writing nomination. I had Wonder in instead.
Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Analysis: I went with I, Tonya over The Big Sick, but this certainly was no shocker. Unlike several prognosticators, I did correctly leave Sick out of the Best Picture race and this marks its sole nod.
Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
Analysis: People love that Boss Baby apparently. It got in over my projected The Girl Without Hands. This is an easy winner to predict – Pixar's Coco.
Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square
Analysis: Golden Globe winner In the Fade and Foxtrot (which some saw as a potential winner) missed the cut. In their place: Soul and Square.
Nominees: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island
Analysis: Welp… there always seem to be that category where I whiff and get 2 out of 5 (last year it was Production Design). This year it's the docs, where Jane (which many saw as a front-runner), City of Ghosts, and Long Strange Trip missed out in favor of Abacus, Aleppo, and Island.
Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Analysis: Besides Actress, this is my only other perfect category.
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water
Analysis: Rachel Morrison made some Oscar history by becoming the first female nominated in this category for Mudbound. I predicted The Post over Darkest Hour.
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
Analysis: Wouldn't you know it? Here's one race where I had Phantom Thread in and it didn't make it. Beauty got in instead.
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul
Analysis: I went with Murder on the Orient Express, but Darkest Hour prevailed. This should be a rather easy victory for Phantom (and perhaps its only).
Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder
Analysis: Victoria over I, Tonya. Look for Gary Oldman's transformation to Churchill in Darkest Hour to be the victor.
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
Analysis: Dunkirk and The Shape of Water were my misses with Guardians and Kong filling in.
Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Analysis: Turns out I should have predicted The Shape of Water in both sound categories. I had War for the Planet of the Apes instead here.
Analysis: The sound races matched this year with Star Wars in over my predicted The Greatest Showman.
Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Analysis: I expected John Williams to be recognized, but for The Post instead of Star Wars. Also had Darkest Hour here and not Three Billboards.
Nominees: "Mighty River" from Mudbound, "The Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name, "Remember Me" from Coco, "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall, "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Analysis: "The Mystery of Love" got in over "It Ain't Fair" from Detroit.
And that leaves the final official breakdown of films and number of nominations to this:
13 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird
Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Baby Driver, I, Tonya
Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria and Abdul
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, All the Money in the World, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Ferdinand, The Florida Project, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Icarus, The Insult, Kong: Skull Island, Last Men in Aleppo, Logan, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Marshall, Molly's Game, On Body and Soul, Roman J. Israel, Esq., The Square, Strong Island, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder
I'll have a post up either later tonight or tomorrow with my initial round of predicted winners! Until then…
Posted in Oscar Predictions	| Tagged A Fantastic Woman, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, academy awards, All the Money in the World, Allison Janney, Armie Hammer, Baby Driver, Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Call Me by Your Name, Christopher Nolan, Christopher Plummer, City of Ghosts, Coco, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Darkest Hour, Denzel Washington, Detroit, Downsizing, Dunkirk, Faces Places, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Frances McDormand, Gary Oldman, Get Out, Greta Gerwig, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guillermo del Toro, Hong Chau, I Tonya, Icarus, In the Fade, James Franco, Jane, Jordan Peele, Kevin Spacey, Kong: Skull Island, Lady Bird, Last Men in Aleppo, Laurie Metcalf, Lesley Manville, Logan, Long Strange Trip, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Margot Robbie, Marshall, Martin McDonagh, Mary J. Blige, Meryl Streep, Molly's Game, movies, Mudbound, Murder on the Orient Express, Octavia Spencer, On Body and Soul, Oscar Predictions, Oscar Watch, oscars, Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread, Richard Jenkins, Roman J. Israel Esq., Sally Hawkins, Sam Rockwell, Saorise Ronan, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Strong Island, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, The Florida Project, The Girl Without Hands, The Greatest Showman, The Insult, The Post, The Shape of Water, The Square, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Timothee Chalamet, Victoria and Abdul, War for the Planet of the Apes, Willem Dafoe, Woody Harrelson	| Leave a reply
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