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2016 MLB Draft Reviews – Texas Rangers
16 Nov 2016 6:00 AM / 1 Comment on 2016 MLB Draft Reviews – Texas Rangers
Top 500 Prospects Drafted by Texas in 2016
21 – Alex Speas
86 – Cole Ragans
111 – Charles Leblanc
121 – Kyle Cody
218 – Kobie Taylor
287 – Kyle Roberts
433 – Sam Huff
443 – Kenny Mendoza
485 – Jonah McReynolds
Complete List of 2016 Texas Rangers Draftees
1.30 – LHP Cole Ragans
I didn't pick up on it at the time but after talking with some friends in the game who know these sort of things, it became pretty clear to me that Cole Ragans (86) entered this past June as one of the most surprisingly divisive prospects in the 2016 MLB Draft. Discussion on Ragans basically split into three different camps. There were those who absolutely loved him as a mid-first round talent and long-term asset, those who liked his upside just fine but would rather another team try to get the best out of him, and those who took him off their board completely on the basis of his seemingly too strong to sign for a fair price commitment to Florida State. Those who love him rave about his athleticism, size, deception, and projection. Goes without saying that all of those are very good things for an 18-year-old pitcher to bring to the table. The belief of the pro-Ragans side is that his athleticism will help him eventually iron out his inconsistent mechanics, his size (6-4, 185) and deception will help all of his stuff play up and lead to lots of ground ball outs in the pros, and his physical projection will lead to far more low-90s fastballs (and eventually mid-90s peaks) than his current 86-92 MPH (93 peak) heat might have you believe. Those less keen on Ragans highlight his present command and control issues, up-and-down present velocity with no guarantee of long-term growth and staying power, and a lack of a clear future knockout offspeed pitch. The best case scenario outcome on the positive side seems to be a potential mid-rotation starting pitcher (or better) while those lower on Ragans seem him more as a pitcher who will top out as one of those quality arms that always seems to struggle with throwing enough strikes and winds up bouncing from team to team and from the rotation to the bullpen.
Because I'm boring and predictable it shouldn't come as a big shock that I think he'll likely fall somewhere in between those two potential ceilings. Ragans can be an athletic lefty with size and promising if untested offspeed stuff while also being a teenager with unanswered questions about his control and pitchability. I lean towards the pro-Ragans crowd ("always bet on athletes" is considered a truism around my household) coming out ahead over the long run, but both positions are reasonable. Either way, Ragans is a major talent that will have a fascinating developmental path from where he is to where he'll wind up.
2.63 – RHP Alex Speas
I have a few friends in baseball that I can rely on for a decent quote every now and then, but even the prospect of anonymity has some of them unwilling to be quoted directly if I can help it. I don't mind paraphrasing or aggregating multiple different views (see above), but there's something about a direct quote, anonymous or not, that gets the blood pumping just a little faster. Thankfully when it came to the Rangers draft this year, I had more than one volunteer step up to give their quick view on what Texas did. My favorite: "Nobody thinks of them this way nationally, but of all the teams in the league that get this rep it's really those guys who think they are smarter than everybody else. They invented baseball and know scouting better than everybody else, so going off the board is treated as a genius thing there rather than a red flag. It's a nice place to work because being wrong is being right. They just want athletes and live arms and then put it all on the field staff to make it work."
Lots to take away from there, right? I try to stay away from the HOT TAKES on this site when I can, but I think that one certainly qualifies. The overarching takeaway for me is that the Rangers simply do things different when it comes to the draft. Hey, if that means walking away with Cole Ragans and Alex Speas (21) with your first two picks, then maybe different is the way to go. Speas is great. Normally I'd like to think my takes are a little more nuanced than that, but I really, really like what I've seen out of the 6-4, 180 pound righthander. Explosive fastball (88-94, 96-98 peak), ultra-firm but effective change (mid-80s, up to 90 in some looks this past spring), average or better slider (83-86) that flashes plus, and a quality mid- to upper-70s curve that he'll drop in as his "in case of emergency" pitch. Like Ragans, there's a lot of dreaming that goes into Speas's long-term projection with plenty of hoping that his athleticism will translate to a more consistent delivery (and then that will lead to more consistent command and control), but the upside is undeniably immense. There's a huge gap between what Speas is and what he could be, but I think it's fair to throw a future ace ceiling on him based on his raw stuff, athleticism, and amateur track record. This could look like a ridiculous second round steal sooner rather than later.
(Didn't know where to shoehorn this in, but one contact said he thought Speas's future is as a top five reliever in baseball. He likened him to former Rangers farmhand Carl Edwards. So there you go.)
3.99 – 3B Kole Enright
No getting around it, I completely whiffed on Kole Enright before the draft. I can't offer much, but I did manage to get get a few names from smarter people that I can pass along to my adoring public. One contact said this pick reminded him of when the Rangers grabbed Josh Morgan earlier than many expected a few years ago. He may or may not have been the same guy who ranted about the Rangers thinking they are smarter than everybody else above. I told him he was just jealous that Texas trusts their area scouts to mine for lesser known gems and he just nodded sadly in agreement. Or at least that's what I assume he did; tough to pick up on physical cues like that over email.
I've also heard a comparison between Enright and surprise 2014 first round pick of the Pirates Cole Tucker. I like that one a lot. Could be because that's the comparison I thought of when reading up on and asking around about Enright's skill set. I did run it by somebody who has seen both guys play (Tucker as a pro, Enright as an amateur) and he said it wasn't crazy. Putting that one on my next (first) business card. Rob Ozga: Not Crazy!
4.129 – SS Charles Leblanc
I've probably said this too often that it doesn't quite carry quite the same meaning as it would otherwise, but, man, Charles Leblanc (111) to Texas in the fourth round might be my favorite pick in the draft. This is in part because I saw Leblanc this past spring and was incredibly impressed in my short three game view, but I think my love of the big infielder from Pittsburgh goes beyond the small sample size eye test. Leblanc checks every box for me: ultra-productive draft year (.405/.494/.513 with 30 BB/29 K), great size and strength (6-4, 200 pounds), clear carrying tools (power and arm), no obvious weaknesses (solid athlete with decent wheels), young for his class (won't be 21-years-old until next June)…the list goes on and on. His eventual defensive transition to third base will be one to watch closely as the college shortstop has the ability to man the hot corner but not yet the experience. If that goes off without a hitch, I think Leblanc could be the above-average regular at third that so many (myself included) thought Mike Olt could once be. I'm all-in on Leblanc.
(For the record, a quick check of published draft reviews so far for the terms "favorite pick" and "best pick" only turned up two names so far. Those are far from the most conclusive search terms I could use, but my hyperbole still wasn't quite as bad as I feared. Jake Elliott and Jon Duplantier were the recipients of that praise, FWIW. I didn't come right out and say it, but Alex Speas in the second round is another one of my favorite picks. Nice work by Texas here.)
5.159 – LHP Kyle Roberts
I won't pretend to be the foremost expert on Kyle Roberts (287), the Rangers fifth round pick out of Henry Ford CC, but what little information I do have on the big lefthander skews positive. Roberts is a hard-thrower (up to the mid-90s) with a really promising upper-70s to low-80s slider (plus upside) and enough feel for some slower stuff (curve, change) that you can dream on the 6-6, 210 pounder as a potential starter if he keeps moving in the right direction. The fallback is pretty nice as well as I've heard that teams value lefties with size, velocity, and nasty sliders in the bullpen quite a bit these days. As an extremely raw prospect, it's no big shock that one of Roberts's biggest concerns at this stage is a lack of present control. His awesome K/9 at Henry Ford (14.28) was matched only by the (almost) equal yet opposite ugliness of his BB/9 (8.41). Considering I see the bullpen as Roberts most likely long-term home, getting his control up to an acceptable range is a far more pressing concern than developing a deeper starter's arsenal of offspeed pitches. Get him firing fastballs and sliders with some clue where they are headed and reap the rewards.
6.189 – RHP Kyle Cody
Wondered about Kyle Cody (121) back in May 2016…
Kyle Cody's stuff has always outstripped his results on the field. Is he destined to forever be a consistently inconsistent professional in the mold of fellow Wildcat Alex Meyer or is there something more in his game that can be unlocked with the right coaching?
Still wondering about that even after Cody's really strong (10.08 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9 in 47.1 IP) pro debut. The comparison to Meyer continues when you look at what the one-time Nationals first round pick did (9.70 K/9 and 3.14 BB/9) as a 22-year-old splitting his time between low-A and high-A in his first full pro season. Of course, Meyer's pro struggles should not be held against Cody as a prospect; as it turns out, I actually like Cody quite a bit as a potential mid-rotation arm (if the changeup comes on) or late-inning relief weapon (a far more likely outcome in my view). He's athletic for a big man with a potentially lethal power sinker/slider combination that should continue to get him plenty of ground ball outs as he climbs the ladder.
7.219 – C Sam Huff
It would be easy to write off the 6-4, 200 pound Sam Huff (433) as a prime candidate to move out from behind the plate sooner rather than later, but the big guy from Arizona is a far more advanced and natural defender than his size might otherwise suggest. He's not a total slam dunk to remain a catcher over the long haul — few teenager catchers are, after all — but he's got a better than 50/50 shot to remain a backstop going forward. If that's the case, then the upside for a potentially above-average regular is very clearly here. Huff's calling card is his average to above-average raw power, but he's also shown impressive plate coverage and disciplined approach as a hitter. Much of the feedback I've gotten on Huff this past offseason has been of the "pump the breaks" variety (equal parts concern about his ability to make enough contact and his defense holding up long-term), but my instinctual lean here has me ignoring that and going all-in on Huff as a future big leaguer.
8.249 – RHP Tai Tiedemann
The lack of pre-draft notes on Tai Tiedemann quickly outs me as a recent member of his bandwagon, but better late than never, right? Tiedemann, completely off my radar this past spring, would have likely been a pre-draft FAVORITE if I had known he existed. His numbers at Long Beach CC don't jump off the page (6.98 K/9 and 3.04 BB/9 in 80.0 IP), but everything else about his scouting profile looks good to me. Tiedemann is an exceptional athlete with great size (6-6, 200), a low-mileage arm, good velocity (90-94 and climbing), feel for offspeed, and a proclivity for getting outs on the ground. Despite being two seasons past his high school graduation, his relative inexperience on the diamond makes him closer to a prep prospect than an established college guy. As long as his development is viewed through that lens (i.e., it's going to take some time), I think Tiedemann is a keeper. It's not a direct one-to-one comparison, but there are some distinct similarities between the earlier pick of Kyle Roberts to the Tiedemann selection three rounds later.
9.279 – RHP Hever Bueno
For as much as I can appreciate a three-pitch college righthander like Hever Bueno, the lack of any semblance of a track record (16.0 IP in both 2014 and 2015) kept me from buying in heading into his draft year. I was hoping that would change during his junior season, but, alas, his final college season (as it turned out) was cut short after only 6.1 innings due to a bum UCL that necessitated Tommy John surgery. If you're into Bueno, you see a potential back-end starter or late-inning reliever with far more stuff (90-94 FB, 97 peak; average to above-average 81-83 CB/SL; average to above-average 84-88 CU) than results to date. I like that optimistic prognostication; it's not a stretch at all to see better days ahead for Bueno, assuming his rehabilitation goes as planned. I'm still not really buying a pitcher who, depending on that rehab timeline, may not get back on the mound for steady pro innings until he's a 23-years-old with only 38.1 post-HS innings to his name. The 7.28 BB/9 in said innings doesn't exactly fill me with confidence, either. That's closer to the résumé of a guy you sign out of indy ball than a ninth round pick you pay a six-figure bonus. Of course, if I was a fan of the Rangers (or a more informed firsthand observer who had seen Bueno at his best) then I'd be all over this pick as a high reward/minimal risk gamble worth taking. It's easy to like a pick like this because everybody involved will look really smart if it hits. If Bueno never comes all the way back from Tommy John (or the healthy version of Bueno turns out to be the wild, underdeveloped pitcher his track record suggests), then it's just another forgotten ninth round pick.
10.309 – OF Josh Merrigan
I like to bust out the old "well-traveled" chestnut every now and then (read: too often), but it really, really applies to Josh Merrigan. The lefthanded outfielder's path to the draft included stops at Georgia State, Chipola JC, and North Carolina before finally finding a home playing for an absolutely dominant (57-6!) Georgia Gwinnett squad. Merrigan more than did his part by hitting .423/.468/.562 with 23 BB/25 K and 44 SB in 201 AB. Lauded for his speed, arm strength, and overall athleticism, Merrigan's maturation as a hitter makes him one to watch very closely as he climbs the minor league ladder. If it all works out, there's some fourth outfielder upside here.
11.339 – RHP Joe Barlow
With a sophomore season split fairly evenly between starting (7 starts) and relieving (6 relief appearances, including 2 saves), Joe Barlow gives the Rangers some flexibility in how he'll be used in the low-minors. The bullpen seems like the more sensible long-term spot for the effectively wild (9.85 K/9 and 5.79 BB/9 as a sophomore) converted catcher with the expected arm strength (low-90s heat) and rawness that comes with a young man relatively new to pitching.
12.369 – C Alex Kowalczyk
Strong arm, powerful build, and plenty of pop. That's the short version of Alex Kowalczyk's game. Maybe not my preferred college catcher at this point, but I still like it all right.
13.399 – SS Jonah McReynolds
Jonah McReynolds (485) is a sensible bet on tools at this stage in the draft. Athletically, he checks every box. He's graceful and coordinated around the bag with quick hands, a plus arm, and above-average foot speed. I'm bearish on him ever hitting enough to play regularly, but it's hard to bet an athlete like this making some noise as a potential utility guy somewhere along the way.
14.429 – RHP Derek Heffel
Asking around about Derek Heffel after the draft elicited this response: "SEC quality arm." High praise for the native Southerner after two seasons putting up solid numbers (including 8.05 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9 as a sophomore) at decidedly "un-southern" Madison JC. Continued improvement on both his curve and chance will only help his low-90s sinker become more effective in the pros. The vibe I got around this pick from talking to those in the know was that the Rangers nabbed Heffel one year before he was going to blow out and become a top five round prospect at Middle Tennessee State. We'll see if that's how it really plays out, but you have to like the size and stuff in the meantime.
15.459 – OF Kobie Taylor
Easy center field range. Above-average to plus speed. Impressive (albeit not super long) track record of squaring up velocity, showing big bat speed, and making lots of hard contact. Strong arm. Solid athleticism. And the Vanderbilt seal of approval that you just love to see with any (signable) high school prospect. I like a lot about Kobie Taylor's (218) game. Excited to see him back on the field next year after his busted thumb is all healed up. Major steal here.
16.489 – RHP Scott Engler
13.94 K/9 and 4.41 BB/9 in 51 innings as a freshman at Cowley County CC is enough for me to get on the Scott Engler bandwagon.
17.519 – RHP Reid Anderson
I commend the Rangers for taking a substantial leap of faith on their area guy with the selection of Reid Anderson here in round seventeen. Anderson, a low-mileage arm relatively new to pitching after converting from the outfield, put up career marks of 6.57 K/9 and 3.84 BB/9 at Millersville. That right there is not what you want to see out of a Division II draft prospect. Texas went a little deeper and dug what they saw with Anderson's potential plus fastball (low-90s already with reason to believe that can trend upward with room to grow physically and mechanically) and plus slider (personally seen it flash now, though it's still as inconsistent as one might expect for a guy with only around 80 college innings under his belt). The numbers guy in me remains dubious, but the wannabe scout keeps trying to look past the lackluster results. Odds are against him as a seventeenth round pick either way, but Anderson should be one of the more interesting mid- to late-round picks to track these next few years. It's a fun low-stakes spin on the tired scouts vs stats narrative.
18.549 – OF Marcus Mack
Marcus Mack can really run. That's one thing I know about him. I also know that his plus wheels help him more than hold his own defensively in center. Those are two very good things working in Mack's favor. A third good thing will be the weight lifted off his shoulders after he records his first pro hit next season. The lefthanded hitting overslot ($175,000) speedster from Texas went an unfortunate 0-20 in his pro debut. An 0-20 stretch during the middle of the season feels bad, but ultimately gets lost in the shuffle of the day-to-day grind of pro ball. Going 0-20 to start a career and then having to put it on ice for six plus months…damn, that's just no fun at all.
19.579 – RHP Alex Daniele
All I have on Alex Daniele: ideal size (6-5, 225), older for class (23 in April), and has shown strikeout ability (12.44 K/9 in small sample final year at Oklahoma) to go along with potential control red flags (8.05 BB/9 in same small sample). He's done more of the same in stints at New Jersey Tech (9.90 K/9 and 4.20 BB/9) and in his brief pro debut (7.85 K/9 and 5.77 BB/9). Without any scouting notes on him it's hard to say what his future may hold, but the patterns in his results across multiple spots can certainly give us a hint.
20.609 – 3B Stephen Lohr
Stephen Lohr had a monster junior season at Cal Baptist that included a.403/.496/.665 batting line with 36 BB/22 K in 206 AB. Good enough for me to start paying attention, I'd say.
21.639 – RHP Kaleb Fontenot
I like Kaleb Fontenot just about as much as any potential big league reliever drafted past the twentieth round. His age (24 in June of his first pro season) and size (6-1, 180) work against him, but his stuff is good enough (88-92 FB, pair of average or so offspeed pitches) to get good hitters out. Probably nothing more than last man out of the bullpen type ceiling — and I don't mean last man in terms of the guy you use in the last inning, clearly — but at least that's something to hang your hat on in the twenty-first round.
22.669 – C Clay Middleton
Two weeks before the draft on Clay Middleton…
Clay Middleton is a steady defender behind the plate and a useful contributor at it; in a class awash with college catching, I think he fits in the mid-rounds for a team willing to do a deep dive into the MEAC.
The Rangers wisely took the plunge with Middleton, a solid defensive player with a sound offensive approach. There's backup catcher upside here if everything works out. Can't hate that in the twenty-second round.
23.699 – RHP Dylan Bice
As I've said in a few other draft reviews, any high school prospect signed past the tenth round is automatically a good pick. Dylan Bice is a good pick for that reason. Athleticism, size, velocity (low-90s fastball, peaks a little higher than that), and feel for offspeed (change, slider) make him a really good pick.
24.729 – LHP Kenny Mendoza
Kenny Mendoza's (443) velocity climbed as the weather warmed up this spring. Proof of that comes in my embarrassing pre-draft mix-up…
LHP Ken Mendoza (Clearview HS, New Jersey): 86-89 FB; 6-4, 215 pounds
LHP Kenneth Mendoza (Clearview Regional HS, New Jersey): 88-92 FB, 93 peak; 6-4, 215 pounds
So if you search for "Mendoza" on my site, these two gentleman will pop up. Ken is the late-summer/fall version of Mendoza while Kenneth (or Kenny) is the spring version the Rangers drafted in the twenty-fourth round. That's a Jimbo. Mendoza is a lefthander with size, appealing velocity, and a strong aptitude for the art of pitching. By any name, it's a really nice pick by Texas this late.
"That's a Jimbo." — Tomsula's phrase for when he was the root of a problem. Like when #49ers tried to come out passing vs. Browns.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) December 28, 2015
26.789 – RHP Tyree Thompson
Tyree Thompson, older for his class as a 19-year-old when drafted, is another win for Texas as we institute the "any high school prospect signed past the tenth round is a good pick" rule yet again. Tons of athleticism, physical projection (6-4, 165 feels like a frame that could put on some good weight), and present fastball velocity (88-92, 93 peak) make it a really good pick. Feels like we've done this before…
27.819 – LHP Lucas Jacobsen
Lucas Jacobsen shares many superficial similarities (height, whiffs, walks) to Alex Daniele. Jacobsen has a little bit of youth, a little more projection, and his lefthandeness on his side.
28.849 – RHP Marc Iseneker
A sidearming reliever from St. John Fisher College? Sure! That's what the twenty-eighth round is all about. The rubber-armed Marc Iseneker had a nice run (8.49 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9) during his time as a Cardinal.
30.909 – LHP Christian Torres
Christian Torres (8.17 K/9 and 3.60 BB/9 at Faulker this past season) showed Texas enough to get a shot at Low-A after a few rookie ball innings. He took that opportunity and ran with it to the tune of a 8.80 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, and 1.47 ERA in 30.2 IP. Pretty impressive way to start a pro career, especially if you look past that earned run per inning clip he was on while with Spokane. Have you picked up on my trick of talking about a guy's debut when I don't have any worthwhile scouting notes to share?
32.969 – OF Travis Bolin
Travis Bolin makes four 2016 MLB Draft picks out of Davenport University that I've now written about in these draft reviews. Bolin's 2016 season there (.412/.472/.819 with 19 BB/30 K and 17/24 SB in 226 AB) makes him as deserving as any of the three Panthers pitchers to be drafted ahead of him. He was productive albeit prone to swings and misses in his debut. I'm into it as a super late round sleeper to store away. For what it's worth, the next few Davenport teams should have some players up for draft consideration as well. I've already got 1B/OF Brian Sobieski (2017) and Central Michigan transfer LHP Grant Wolfram (2018) in my sights.
33.999 – RHP Mark Vasquez
This one leaves me conflicted. On one hand, teams drafting multiple players from NAIA schools — even great ones like Faulkner — remains a sore subject. Sure there's a chance that the Rangers organically came to the conclusion that two of the top thirty-three players in their draft pool both happened to attend Faulkner, but it sure as heck doesn't seem statistically likely to me. Convenience scouting is a thing and while I understand the pros that come with it (all of this has been talked to death in other draft reviews by now, BTW), it will always set me off just a little bit. If nothing else, I think examples like Texas going with Christian Torres and Mark Vasquez, both out of a NAIA school with around 3000 students enrolled, show that that big league teams have finite resources they can and will spend on amateur scouting. Don't listen to those who constantly throw the "appeal to authority" logical fallacy at you when it comes to pro teams knowing so much more than we could ever possibly imagine as outsiders.
On the other hand (took a while but we got here), the actual player selected (Vasquez) looks pretty interesting. Definitely can't hate a team getting a workhorse pitcher coming off a senior year with peripherals (11.26 K/9 and 2.10 BB/9) like his. He's older for his class (25 in May) and highly unlikely to reach the big leagues (as anybody picked in the thirty-third round would be), but it's far from a throwaway pick. I don't know what to think about this one. All I know is that I've spent more time on pick 999 than about 99.9% of the population and I'm all right with that.
34.1029 – OF Preston Scott
3B Preston Scott (Hanford HS, California): really quick bat; big power upside; promising defender
Four years later, Preston Scott got himself drafted and signed to pro ball after a .339/.418/.579 (22 BB/20 K) season at Fresno Pacific. That line is made all the more impressive when viewed through the prism of his team's .265/.350/.348 overall line. Scott's power plays and his athleticism helps him both in the field defensively and on the base paths. I like this pick. The only downside is that it makes me thing of an old friend of mine named Scott Preston who I've lost touch with over the years. Haven't seen him since middle school…that's almost twenty years ago now. Wonder how he's doing…
35.1059 – RHP Jean Casanova
Jean Casanova, who grew up in the Dominican Republic, is yet another high school pitcher signed by Texas late in the draft. Really nice work by their area guys in gauging signability this year. For his part, Casanova has a solid heater (88-92) and a full assortment of secondary offerings (none stand out just yet, maybe the change if you had to pick one). Worth a shot.
37.1119 – OF Austin O'Banion
Austin O'Banion hit .335/.429/.588 with 24 BB/40 K in 170 AB at Fullerton JC. This March 3, 2016 article offered a fine bit of foreshadowing…
Last week, Fuscardo said a good friend of his who scouts for the Texas Rangers recently left the field wowed by O'Banion's fielding chops and raw power.
38.1149 – RHP Reilly Peltier
An easy to spot Texas 2016 MLB Draft trend that I probably should have mentioned sooner: pitchers with size. Just about every pitcher the Rangers drafted this past year is a physical monster. Coming in at 6-5, 215 pounds, Reilly Peltier, fresh off a fine season McHenry County JC (12.73 K/9 and 4.20 BB/9 in 68.2 IP), is no different.
Brent Burgess (Spartanburg Methodist), Tyler Walsh (Belmont), Herbie Good (Santa Barbara CC), Blair Calvo (Pittsburgh), Robert Harris (?), Tra'Mayne Holmes (Alabama State)
2016 MLB Draft First Round Analysis
9 Jun 2016 8:56 PM / Leave a comment
Digging through the archives to give a little context on some of the first round picks so far. This will update as long as I stay awake tonight…
1.1 – Philadelphia Phillies | La Costa Canyon HS OF Mickey Moniak (3rd on BDR BIG 500)
The extra bit of youth isn't what gives Moniak the edge for me, but it certainly doesn't hurt. What separates Moniak at this present moment is his ability to hit the ball hard everywhere. Sometimes simplistic analysis works. The manner in which Moniak sprays line drives and deep flies to all fields resembles something a ten-year veteran who flirts with batting titles season after season does during BP. Trading off a little bit of Rutherford's power for Moniak's hit tool and approach (both in his mindfulness as a hitter and his plate discipline) are worth it for me. Of course, check back with me in a few months…I had Meadows ahead of Frazier for a long time before giving in to the latter's arm, power, and approach (as a whole-fields power hitter, not necessarily as an OBP machine). History may yet repeat itself, but I'll take Moniak for now.
Actually, the Moniak and Nimmo parallels aren't too far off besides the level of competition discrepancy. Check Baseball America's pre-draft notes on Nimmo…
He's an above-average runner when he's healthy, which helps him on the basepaths and in center field, and there's more to his game than just speed. Nimmo has a pretty, efficient lefthanded swing. He's short to the ball and has outstanding barrel awareness, consistently squaring balls up and shooting line drives to all fields. He has a good eye at the plate and should be an above-average hitter. As he gets stronger, he could add loft to his swing to turn doubles into home runs.
I still believe in Nimmo as being a useful big league player, but perhaps the scouting profile similarities between the two ought to serve as a little bit of a warning for those already all-in on Moniak. Same could be said for the Starling/Rutherford tie-in, though that's significantly less worrisome because of the latter being far more of a ballplayer than the former ever was; Starling's issues weren't simply because he was older for his class but rather because he was older and underdeveloped from a skills standpoint. Making up for lost time while learning the finer points of the game is hard work, but Rutherford's actual on-field abilities should make the curve much shorter than Starling's.
(Incidentally, I learned that we're taken what a steep learning curve should be and flipped it to mean the opposite of the original intent. We talk about steep learning curves as if they note a difficult initial learning process, but a steep increase translates to a quick increment of skill. Wikipedia notes that the error is likely because of how we've taken to interpret the idea as climbing a hill. Climbing a steep hill is more difficult than attempting the same on a less steep version, so we assume a steep learning curve means learning something new will be tricky. Maybe this is all common knowledge, but I've been using steep learning curve wrong my whole life. If you're like me, then you can at least walk away from this post learning something new…even if you think all my baseball takes are nonsense.)
Or maybe all of these forced comps are no more than false flags since, you know, comparing distinct individuals to other distinct individuals may not always tell us what we think (hope?) it does. I do, however, think there's something to identifying players with similar physical traits, skills, and tools, and analyzing their respective career paths, at least on a very general, very preliminary level. I think we can all (mostly) agree that certain player types seem to succeed while others don't, so there's value in using historical data to see what has worked and what hasn't. Besides Trenton Clark, Moniak has also been compared to Christian Yelich (source: everybody) and Steve Finley (Baseball America); I see a little Adam Eaton in his game, but Moniak is far more physical (bigger, too) at the same stage. One other recent draft name that reminded me of Moniak was this guy…
He tied Hinch's USA Baseball record by playing on his sixth national team, and scouts love his grinder approach and in-game savvy. What's more, Almora has outstanding tools. The Miami signee, in one scout's words, "has no issues. He's got above-average tools everywhere, and they all play. He has tools and he uses them." He doesn't turn in blazing times when he runs in showcases (generally he's a 6.8-second runner in the 60), but his game instincts help him steal bases and cover plenty of ground in center field. Scouts consider his defense major league-ready right now, with plus grades for his accurate throwing arm. With natural hitting rhythm and plenty of bat speed, [he] is a line-drive machine with a loose swing who stays inside the ball, relishes velocity and handles spin. He should have 20-homer power down the line, sufficient if he slows down and can't play center, and a definite bonus if (as expected) he stays in the middle garden. He plays the game with both ease and energy and may have some projection left in his athletic 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame. The Miami signee is considered one of the draft's safer picks and could sneak into the first 10 selections.
No comp is perfect, but as far as draft prospect parallels go, that's not half-bad. If I'm alone on this so be it, but I believe thinking of Moniak as a lefthanded version of Albert Almora, the sixth overall pick in 2012, kind of works. Because we're already up to five comps, what's one more? A contact I trust dropped Ender Inciarte as a possible career path and production point of comparison for Moniak, assuming the power never really comes around. I see Moniak as a hitter just a tweak or three away from tapping into some of his average raw power more consistently, so anything in that 45/50 scouting grade band (12-18 HR) feels within reach for him at maturity. For all the comps thrown Moniak's way this spring, it's really hard to top the Yelich one. I think that's one of the better comps of any prospect in recent years. I really like Yelich. I really like Moniak.
1.2 – Cincinnati Reds | Tennessee 3B Nick Senzel (7th)
Nick Senzel is really good. I've compared him to Anthony Rendon in the past – the exact phrasing from my notes is "Rendon lite?" – and I think he'll have a good long career as an above-average big league player. He also reminds me a little bit of this guy…
Top is Senzel, bottom is Kyle Seager. I've used the Seager comp a few (too many) times over the years, most recently on Max Schrock last season. Speaking of Schrock, how did he fall as far as he did last year? That one still blows my mind. Anyway, in an attempt to move away from the tired Seager comp, another name popped up…
Top is still Senzel. Mystery bottom guy was written up like so by Baseball America after his pro debut…
"He has a short, compact swing and hits the ball to all fields, and he handles breaking pitches well because of strong balance. Though he's a physical 6-foot-1 and has good strength, [REDACTED] has a line-drive swing that doesn't produce natural loft, leading some to project him to have below-average power. He earns high marks for his defense, with good feet and hands to go with an above-average arm at third base. He's also versatile enough to have played second base, shortstop and left field for Team USA. He's a good athlete and a solid-average runner."
I would have linked his pre-draft report from BA, but they have the absolute worst log-in page on the entire internet. Anyway, the passage above was typed up from the 2009 Prospect Handbook. We're talking about a guy who once played infield in the SEC. He had a similar draft year statistically. And he's really broken out in his late-20s. Any guesses? When I've done mystery comps like this in the past I wouldn't reveal the player. Then I'd search my site about a different player years later, come across the mystery comp post, and have no idea myself who I was talking about. So, yeah, it's Logan Forsythe. My future self thanks my present self. I like Senzel to hit the big leagues running a bit more easily than Forsythe (i.e., I don't think Senzel will enter his age-28 season with an OPS+ of 85), so maybe that would bump Senzel up over Forsythe as a guy with a higher floor. A couple of peak years like Forsythe's seems like a reasonable ceiling projection. That's a damn fine player. Supports the original claim: Nick Senzel is really good.
1.3 – Atlanta Braves | Shenendehowa HS RHP Ian Anderson (17th)
Early April 2016…
A pre-season FAVORITE who has only gone on to bigger and better things in the interim, Ian Anderson can make a case for being the top prep righthander in this class. He's one of the handful of young arms with the potential for three plus pitches — 88-94 fastball (95 peak), 77-80 breaking ball, and a 80-85 change — but what truly separates him from the pack is his ten years in the big league veteran command. Fantasy owners rightfully scared off by high school pitchers — so far from the big leagues with so much time to get hurt! — not named Groome and Pint would be wise to include Anderson in that big three on draft day. One scout friend of mine called Anderson a "more explosive Aaron Nola." A little bit of upside (or a lot), a little bit of certainty (very little, but still more than most HS arms)…where do I sign up?
Late April 2016…
Ian Anderson, a dark-horse 1-1 candidate, has everything you'd want to see in a high school righthander with worlds of projection left. He also helps my pet theory that there's an easy shortcut to amateur scouting: just follow the recruits. If a player is committed to Vanderbilt, like Ian Anderson is, move him up ___ spots on your board. Let the college teams do the hard work for you! Vanderbilt, Florida, UCLA, LSU…if a guy has a commitment to a school on that level, then you should want to draft him. I loved Anderson as much as anybody as he began to put his name on the national map, but once he had that Vandy commit in his back pocket he started looking better than ever.
1.4 – Colorado Rockies | Saint Thomas Aquinas HS RHP Riley Pint (2nd)
A fantasy pick on a guy like Riley Pint is truly going all-in on upside. There have been a lot of challengers to his throne this spring, but Pint's raw stuff is still the most impressive of any high school arm in this class. He's the only prep prospect that I'm confident in putting future plus grades on three different pitches. Jay Groome, Ian Anderson, Alex Speas, Austin Bergner, and Forrest Whitley all could get there, but Pint's already convinced me. He's the singular most talented pitching prospect in the country. So why is listed as a mid-first round pick and not a slam dunk 1-1 here? If you're reading this on your own volition — and I certainly hope there's no crazed lunatic out there forcing random people to visit my site; that's my job! — then you already know. Pint's delivery has many of the smarter public talent evaluators concerned about how he'll hold up pitching every fifth day. I'm less concerned about that because I'm fairly stubborn in my belief that there's no such thing as "bad mechanics" since the mere act of throwing a baseball is bad and unnatural by definition. I'm just looking for a guy with athleticism who can repeat whatever he is doing on the mound consistently with an open-mindedness to receiving instruction and a willingness to adjust aspects of his craft as needed. I think Pint fits that bill. The one knock on the fire-balling righthander that I think could have some merit is the concern over his risk of injury going forward. Again, this isn't something that I'm crazy with concern about — pitchers get hurt, so you have to be ready for that inevitability with any pitching prospect — but the idea that Pint's most obvious selling point (100 MPH!) could also be his biggest red flag (too much velocity too soon) intrigues the heck out of me. That's straight out of Shakespeare or The Twilight Zone or something. Red flags or not, Pint's arm talent is unmistakable. He's well worth a shot here and likely a whole heck of a lot higher. He'd be on my shortlist at 1-1 if I had a say.
1.5 – Milwaukee Brewers | Louisville OF Corey Ray (8th)
1.6 – Oakland Athletics | Florida LHP AJ Puk (12th)
I've been tough on AJ Puk in the past, but I think I'm finally ready to give in. I'm at peace with him being the first overall pick in this year's draft. I mean, we all knew the Phillies were all over him going back to when Pat Gillick went south down to Gainesville to watch him throw during fall ball, but only know am I ready to accept it as a good thing. Or, perhaps more accurately, I can now accept it at least as a non-bad thing. This was written here back in October…
If I had to predict what player will actually go number one this June, I'd piggy-back on what others have already said and put my vote in for AJ Puk. The Phillies are my hometown team and while I'm not as well-connected to their thinking as I am with a few other teams, based on the snippets of behind the scenes things I've heard (not much considering it's October, but it's not like they aren't thinking about it yet) and the common sense reporting elsewhere (they lean towards a quick-moving college player, preferably a pitcher) all point to Puk. He's healthy, a good kid (harmless crane climbing incident aside), and a starting pitcher all the way. Puk joining Alfaro, Knapp, Crawford, Franco, Williams, Quinn, Herrera, Altherr, Nola, Thompson, Eickhoff, Eflin, and Giles by September 2017 makes for a pretty intriguing cost-controlled core.
(It's pretty great for Phillies fans that they can now swap out Giles's name for Velasquez, Appel, and Eshelman. I've saved this analysis for friends and family I like to annoy with this sort of thing via email, but there are so many Cubs/Phillies rebuild parallels that it's freaky. The only bummer is that there is no Kris Bryant in this class and that the Phillies might be too good in 2016 to land a Kyle Schwarber type next June. Still, where the Cubs were last year, I expect the Phillies to be in 2018. Enjoy this down time while you can, Mets and Nationals. The Phillies are coming fast.)
Now that May is here it's time to accept the inevitability of Puk wearing red pinstripes…or, more immediately, Clearwater Thresher red and blue. I've long been in the "like but not love" camp when it comes to Puk, partly because of my belief there were superior talents ahead of him in this class and partly because of the handful of red flags that dot his dossier. The three biggest knocks on Puk coming into the season were, in some order, 1) command, 2) inconsistent quality of offspeed offerings, and 3) good but not great athleticism. It says a lot about what he does well that he's risen as a prospect in my mind despite not really answering any of the questions we had for him coming into the season. All of this has held up so far…
I'll be quick to point out again that it says "prospect version of Madison Bumgarner" without speaking to what the San Francisco ace grew into as a finished product in the big leagues. Bumgarner is a kind of special player who just kept adding on and getting better as he progressed up the chain. That's not something that you can predict for any other prospect, though you can't really rule it out either. You don't know either way, is the point. Putting Bumgarner aside for now, I think there are two recent-ish draft lefthanders that can help create a basis for what to expect out of AJ Puk in the early stages of his pro career. In terms of a realistic prospect upside, Puk reminds me a great deal of recently promoted big league pitcher Sean Manaea.
Their deliveries are hardly identical – Puk is more over the top while Manaea slings it from more of an angle, plus Puk has a more pronounced step-back with his right foot at the onset and a longer stride, both aspects of his delivery that I personally like as it gives him better balance throughout – but they aren't so different that you'd point to mechanics as a reason for tossing the comparison aside. They have similar stuff starting with fastballs close in velocity and movement (Puk has been 90-94 this year, up to 97), inconsistent yet promising low- to mid-80s sliders that flash above-average to plus (82-86 and more frequently showing above-average this year for Puk), and changeups still in need of development that clearly would be classified as distant third pitches (Puk's has been 82-88 so far). Both have missed a lot of bats while also having their ups and downs in the control department with Puk being better at the former while Manaea maintained a slight edge at the latter. Both are also very well-proportioned, physical lefthanders with intimidating size with which they know how to use to their advantage.
A cautionary comparison for Puk might be current Mariners minor leaguer James Paxton. Paxton and Puk are closer mechanically – more similar with the height of their leg kick and overall arm action, though Paxton is more deliberate across the board — than Manaea and Puk, but the big difference between the former SEC lefthander and the current SEC lefthander is the breaking ball. Paxton's bread and butter is a big overhand curve, a pitch that remains unhittable to this day when he can command it. Puk's slider has its moments and it's fair to expect it to develop into a true big league out-pitch (I do), but it's not quite on that level yet. Paxton's career has stalled for many of the same reasons some weren't particularly high on Puk coming into the season: up and down fastball velocity partly attributable to a series of nagging injuries (also a problem of Manaea's at times), an underdeveloped changeup, and consistently inconsistent command. I think Puk is ahead of where Paxton was at similar points in their development and prefer his ceiling to what we've seen out of Paxton to date, but the realistic floor comp remains in play.
One additional notable (or not) similarity between Puk, Manaea, Paxton, and Sean Newcomb, a fourth player often thrown into the mix as a potential Puk point of reference (it's not bad, but Newcomb's control issues are greater than anything Puk has dealt with), comes via each player's respective hometown. We've got Cedar Rapids (IA), Valparaiso (IN), Ladner (BC), and Brockton (MA). That's two raised in the Midwest, one in Canada, and one in New England. When you start to piece everything together, the similar career trajectories for each young pitcher (so far) begin to make some sense. All come from cold weather locales, all are large men with long limbs (thus making coordinating said limbs more of a challenge), and all are lefthanders, a fact that may or may not matter to you depending on your view of whether or not lefties really do develop later than their righthanded counterparts.
Put me down for a realistic Sean Manaea type of upside, a James Paxton floor, and the crazy pipe dream where literally everything works out developmentally ceiling of Madison Bumgarner. Do those potential career paths add up to a 1-1 draft pick? I'm not sure I have a good answer for that yet.
Early May 2016…
I'm cheating and tacking Puk back on at the end here even after he got his own post last week. Like many draft-obsessed individuals, I watched his most recent start against South Carolina with great interest. I've seen Puk a few times in person and tons of times on the tube, but it wasn't until Saturday night that the comparison between him and Andrew Miller really hit me. I saw about a dozen Miller starts in person back in his Tar Heel days (in a very different time in my life) and watching Puk throw brings back all kinds of memories, good and bad. The frustrating thing about this comp is that it doesn't really tell us much. Maybe we can use it as a baseline floor for what Puk could become – though Miller's dominance out of the pen is a tough expectation to put on anybody as a realistic worst case scenario – but pointing out the similarities between the two (size, length, extension, delivery, mound demeanor, fastball, slider, underdeveloped change…even similar facially minus Miller's draft year mustache) hardly means that Puk is destined to the same failed starter fate. I mean, sure, maybe it does, but there's so much more that goes into being a successful big league starter than what gets put down on a scouting card. I love comps, but they are meant to serve as a starting point to the conversation, not to be the parting shot. Every player is unique and whatever extra reasons are out there for Miller not making it in the rotation should not be held against Puk. Maybe that's obvious, but it doesn't hurt to say it again. I do think that Puk, barring injury, has a pretty clear big league skill set in some capacity (maybe not -0.15 FIP out of the bullpen good, but still good) even if he doesn't reach his ultimate ceiling. In that way he is similar to Miller, so at least there's that to fall back on. The odds that you get nothing out of Puk, again barring injury, are slim to none. For the risk-averse out there, that's a comforting thought.
1.7 – Miami Marlins | Florence HS LHP Braxton Garrett (18th)
LHP Braxton Garrett (Florence HS, Alabama): 87-92 FB, 94 peak; above-average to plus 74-81 CB, best at 80-83 this spring; average to above-average 79-86 CU with plus upside, best at 82-86; 87 cut-SL; plus command; impressive control; damn smart; ESPN comps: Cole Hamels and Jon Lester; FAVORITE; 6-3, 190 pounds
1.8 – San Diego Padres | Stanford RHP Cal Quantrill (20th)
On talent alone, Cal Quantrill deserves to be right there with Jefferies as a potential top ten overall pick contender. Last year's Tommy John surgery and the subsequent lost time in 2016, however, complicate the matter, though it's hard to say how much. Quantrill's 77-81 MPH change-up is one of my favorite pitches in this entire class. Easy velocity (89-95, 96 peak), a pair of interesting breaking balls, all kinds of pitchability, and that change-up…what more could you want? Good health, I suppose. A few late season starts would go a very long way in easing the minds of big league scouting directors charged with making the decision whether or not to cut a multi-million dollar check (or cheque in the case of the Canadian born Quantrill) to the Stanford righthander. I recently wondered aloud about how teams will perceive Quantrill in this his draft year…
The attrition at the top of the college pitching pile has left Cal Quantrill, yet to pitch in 2016 as he recovers from last year's Tommy John surgery, one of the college game's most intriguing mound prospects. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right? I wonder if the star student out of Stanford knew this and staged the whole elbow injury to allow time for his competition to implode all over the place. That's a joke. Not a good one, but a joke all the same.
I also have said on the record that I'd consider taking him sight unseen (in 2016) with a pick just outside the draft's top ten. You might say I'm bullish on Quantrill's pro prospects.
1.9 – Detroit Tigers | Sheldon HS RHP Matt Manning (23rd)
RHP Matt Manning (Sheldon HS, California): 90-96 FB with sink, 98-99 peak; above-average 73-79 CB, plus upside; CB runs into an above-average 77-80 SL; 86 CU; plus athlete; Mike Rooney comp: Phil Bickford; leans heavily on FB, pitching off it as well as any other arm in this class; FAVORITE; 6-6, 190 pounds
1.10 – Chicago White Sox | Miami C Zack Collins (6th)
I love JR C/1B Zack Collins as a prospect. His brand of power isn't typically seen in amateur prospects. His approach, which will always include lots of swings and misses especially on the slow stuff, has matured enough that I think he'll post average or better on-base numbers as a pro. He's what we would charitably call a "work in progress" behind the plate, but all of the buzz out of fall practice (always positive and player-friendly, it should be noted) seems to indicate he may have turned the corner defensively. The comparisons to Kyle Schwarber make all the sense in the world right now: they are both big guys who move better than you'd think with defensive questions at their primary position, massive raw power, the ability to unleash said power in game action, and a patient approach that leads to loads of walks and whiffs. The edge for Schwarber comes in his hit tool; I think Schwarber's was and will be ahead of Collins's, so we're talking the difference between above-average to average/slightly below-average. That hit tool combined with plus raw power, an approach I'm fond of, and the chance of playing regularly behind the plate (with an all-around offensive profile good enough to thrive elsewhere) make Collins one of my favorite 2016 draft prospects.
In what has to be a sign that I've been doing this too long (and/or I'm getting old and my brain is turning into mush), I kept coming back to a lefthanded hitting Mike Napoli comparison for Collins. I remembered seeing that for Kyle Schwarber (first mentioned by Aaron Fitt, I believe) and liking it, so the continued connection made sense. What I didn't remember was this…
1B/C Zack Collins (American Heritage HS, Florida): impressive bat speed; good approach; really advanced bat, close to best in class; above-average to plus raw power; really good at 1B; might be athletic enough for corner OF; much improved defender behind plate; Mike Napoli comp by me; FAVORITE; 6-3, 215 pounds
That was from June of 2013. I had no idea I went with the Napoli comparison already. I'm plagiarizing myself at this point. Speaking of things I've written about Collins in the past…
Collins' monster freshman season has me reevaluating so much of what I thought I knew about college hitters. I see his line (.298/.427/.556 with 42 BB/47 K in 205 AB) and my first instinct is to nitpick it. That's insane! In the pre-BBCOR era, you might be able to get away with parsing those numbers and finding some tiny things to get on him about, but in today's offensive landscape those numbers are as close to perfection as any reasonable human being could expect to see out of a freshman. Player development is rarely linear, but if Collins can stay on or close to the path he's started, he's going to an unholy terror by the time the 2016 draft rolls around. Here's a quick look at what the college hitters taken in the first dozen picks in the BBCOR era (and Collins) did as freshmen (ranked in order of statistical goodness according to me)…
Kris Bryant: .365/.482/.599 – 33 BB/55 K – 197 AB
Michael Conforto: .349/.437/.601 – 24 BB/37 K – 218 AB
Colin Moran: .335/.442/.540 – 47 BB/33 K – 248 AB
ZACK COLLINS: .298/.427/.556 – 42 BB/47 K – 205 AB
Kyle Schwarber: .300/.390/.513 – 30 BB/24 K – 230 AB
Casey Gillaspie: .274/.378/.442 – 34 BB/43 K – 215 AB
DJ Peterson: .317/.377/.545 – 15 BB/52 K – 246 AB
Hunter Dozier: .315/.363/.467 – 12 BB/34 K – 197 AB
Max Pentecost: .277/.364/.393 – 21 BB/32 K – 191 AB
I'd say Collins stacks up pretty darn well at this point. Looking at this list also helps me feel better about their being a touch too much swing-and-miss in Collins' game (see previous heretofore ignored inclination to nitpick). It is also another data point in favor of that popular and so logical it can't be ignored comparison between Collins and fellow "catcher" Kyle Schwarber. Baseball America also threw out a Mark Teixeira comp, which is damn intriguing. I won't include Teixeira's freshmen numbers because that was back in the toy bat years, but from a scouting standpoint it's a comp that makes a good bit of sense.
Hinting at a comparison to a Hall of Very Good player like Teixeira was jumping the gun a little, but I'm as bullish on Collins's future than ever after his strong sophomore season at the plate. Here's the same comparison as above updated with sophomore season statistics…
Just going off of raw numbers, I'd put Collins fourth out of this group in 2014. Using the numbers above, I'd probably knock him down to the fifth spot with a couple of new names now ahead of him. Also, I erroneously claimed that all those guys were taken in the draft's first dozen picks when Casey Gillaspie didn't get selected until the twentieth pick. Doesn't change the premise, but still worth noting. If we go back to the first dozen picks as a cut-off, then we'd have to add these guys from 2015…
Dansby Swanson: .333/.411/.475 – 37 BB/49 K – 22/27 SB – 282 AB
Alex Bregman: .316/.397/.455 – 27 BB/21 K – 12/18 SB – 244 AB
Andrew Benintendi: .376/.488/.717 – 50 BB/32 K – 24/28 SB – 226 AB
Ian Happ: .322/.443/.497 – 32 BB/35 K – 19/24 SB – 171 AB
ZACK COLLINS: .302/.445/.587 – 57 BB/64 K – 7/8 SB – 242 AB
Seeing Swanson and Bregman at the top like that makes you appreciate how historically significant having so many college shortstops go early last really was. If we expanded this to the top twenty, we'd have to add fellow shortstops Kevin Newman and Richie Martin. Having players with real defensive value skews the data some, but if we all agree to put it in context in our own terms then we should be fine. Long story short here: Zack Collins is in very good company when stacked up against peers who went very high in the draft. As a first baseman only, I'd predict (maybe boldly, maybe not) that he still would be selected on the draft's first day. If his rumored improvements behind the plate are real, then I don't see why he can't keep mashing his way into top ten consideration just like Kyle Schwarber before him.
I'm close to out of superlatives for Zack Collins's bat. If he can catch, he's a superstar. If he can't, then he's still a potential big league power bat capable of hitting in the middle of the championship lineup for the next decade. I realize first basemen aren't typically sought after at the top of the draft. There are perfectly valid reasons for that. But any time you have the chance at a potential top five bat at any given position, I think it's all right to bend the rules a little. Positional value is important, but so is premium offensive production. Collins hitting and hitting a lot as a professional is one of the things I'm most sure about in this draft class.
He's the one I've comped to Schwarber stylistically. I actually think Collins is the better catcher and could stick there as a pro. Still might be best moving him out from behind the plate. I've just come up with a terrifying comp for him…Joey Votto. Maybe he's one of those hitters that we shouldn't compare young guys to, but then again…at the same age, Votto hit .256/.330/.425 with 52 BB/122 K in A+ ball. I could see Collins going to A/A+ this year after the draft and doing similar stuff.
1.11 – Seattle Mariners | Mercer OF Kyle Lewis (4th)
I'm an unabashed Kyle Lewis fan. I'm also a fan of hitters who can control the strike zone, spoil pitchers's pitches, work favorable counts, and punish baseballs when ahead. Right now, that description only partially describes Lewis…and even that requires a more optimistic outlook than some are willing to take at this point in time. So how can those two statements be reconciled? It's a dangerous thing for my credibility to admit, but call it an educated hunch that the 20-year-old Lewis will figure things out as a hitter. It goes back to something I mentioned in the comments section a few weeks back: guys either learn to hit or they don't. That's my paraphrased take from this scout's quote talking about the likelihood of Jahlil Okafor improving his outside shot as a professional: "He needs to become a better shooter and free throw shooter. He either will or he won't." Scouts work very hard evaluating amateur and minor league talent across the country, so their collective insight into projecting a young hitter's future is not to be dismissed. But…can we ever really know how a guy is going to react when thrown into the professional environment? A 95 MPH fastball with movement is a 95 MPH fastball with movement at any level. Plus speed, outstanding glove work, and the ability to miss bats are all translatable skills when honed properly. Hitting is an entirely different animal.
A big part of what makes hitting unique is that it can mean different things to different evaluators. There's no wrong way to define "hitting," so long as it remains consistent report to report. When I personally talk hitting, I'm including everything that I think goes into what separates a good hitter from a not so good hitter. If that means there's overlap with other tools (power, most notably) and abilities (athleticism, hand-eye coordination, work ethic), then so be it. Hitting can be broken up into all kinds of smaller sub-components, but the three central facets are "hitting" (contact skills, bat-to-ball ability, mechanics), power (fairly self-explanatory), and approach (having a plan at the plate, both early and late in counts). The hitting and power components are relatively easy to identify with practice — there's a reason they are two of the oft-cited five tools — but approach has always been the great mystery of amateur scouting. This is problematic for guys like me who place a great deal of importance on the approach piece of the pie; without an approach up to a certain standard, the hit and power tools will suffer greatly. I know some scouts will argue for hit over power (i.e., the Kansas City and Pittsburgh approach to scouting and development) or power over hit (where many teams are still at as they struggle to adjust to a post-PED world), but I'll always be approach over hit/power, with no real preference on the last decision.
So what do I look for in young hitters and what does this ultimately have to do with liking Kyle Lewis and his current sub-optimal (per performance metrics) approach so much? I want to see athleticism (both traditional and baseball-specific), ease of mechanical repeatability (swing path, pre-swing movements, and upper- to lower-half coordination are all interesting to me, but ultimately I'm pragmatic: don't really care how it looks as long as the hitter is comfortable, productive against top competition, and able to consistently do the same thing over and over), a high frequency of "hard" contact (easier judged now thanks to new technology at the pro level, but still a subjective call at the amateur level), and evidence of a planned approach (more about "self-scouting" and less about trying to guess what the hitter is seeing out of the pitcher's hand — often labelled "pitch recognition," but a really hard thing for an outsider to claim in my opinion) with every single plate appearance.
The relative importance of hitting the ball to all fields is something I go back and forth on; it's obviously a good thing, but I think there's still room in our shift-filled game for a slugger with extreme pull-side power to succeed if he's good enough at it. For now, I consider it a bonus and not a prerequisite for being an average or better pro hitter. I'm also somewhat divided in thought when it comes to bat speed. As somebody who grew up with a front row seat — well, upper-deck (sections 420/421!) but it still counts — to watching Chase Utley play every day, I'm not about to downplay the importance of swinging a quick bat. Bat speed is undeniably important, but damn hard to judge in a nuanced way. That could be a personal failing of mine and not a universal issue among real deal scouts, but I'm not sure how the human eye can possibly determine bat speed beyond differentiating between "whoa," "decent," and "slow." Maybe you could attempt to circle back to existing scouting language and separate a bit more (plus, above-average, average, below-average), but even that only teases out one extra descriptive layer. Short of measuring bat speed electronically, we're left at doing our best to approximate what we see in an instant.
There's also always going to be the most basic aspect of scouting: how does he look when he's doing what he does. Think of this as an informed "gut" instinct. That's so much of what scouting is: educated guesses. I wish I had access to some kind of special proprietary video library of every hitter of the past few decades to compare what I'm seeing right this second to what has worked for others historically, but I don't. Thankfully, our brains are designed to cycle through all that our eyes have perceived and form patterns based on positive outcomes. That magic video library is inside each and every one of us obsessives who watches baseball on a daily basis. This will always be the most subjective aspect of scouting — everybody has a "type" and we're all preconditioned to prefer those who fit that mold — but that doesn't mean it's not without value. And, yes, Kyle Lewis is my type, thank you very much.
Acknowledging that we all have our own preconceived notions about what is best lends further credence to the idea that sweeping proclamations about whether or not a young guy will hit aren't wise. We can all make our best guesses — some of us having to do so with millions of dollars on the line — but ultimately these hitters will or won't hit as pros. There's already some interesting "expert" noise out there about Florida OF Buddy Reed's swing being unsuitable to the challenges of the pro game. That's a fair criticism (when substantiated beyond the boring blanket statement of "I just don't like that swing"), but consider me preemptively bummed out to read (in the event of him being a great pro) how it wasn't a scouting miss per se but rather a developmental success. No way could it be that his swing wasn't misidentified as a bad one. Nooo, it was the impossible to predict reworking of his swing as a pro that led to his (again, entirely hypothetical) pro success. In other words, be careful what you read about a young hitter's ability to adjust to the pro game. Nobody on the outside really knows — heck, neither do the supposed insiders! — so beware anybody who claims to have some kind of soothsaying abilities when prognosticating raw amateur bats. These guys are often the first to explain away their misses under the guise of unforeseen pro development. Here I am thinking that making that determination was part of the scouting process — silly me!
Kyle Lewis hit .367/.423/.677 last year in a decent college conference. That's good, clearly. His 19 BB/41 K ratio is less good. So why buy the bat? As a hitter, I like what I've seen and heard about his righthanded swing. I like that he seemingly improved his approach (aggressively hunting for "his" pitch showed good self-scouting while getting ahead more frequently late in the year demonstrated a fuller understanding of what it will take to succeed against top-level competition) and started chasing fewer pitchers's pitches as the season went on. I like his physical projection, public and privately shared intel about his work ethic, bat speed (I've seen some "whoa" cuts from him), and how his athleticism allows his upper- and lower-body to work in concern with one another with each swing. Believe me, I understand doubting him now as a potential top ten pick and dark horse to go 1-1 in this draft based on a wait-and-see approach to his plate discipline; if improvements aren't made in his draft year BB/K ratio, all the positive scouting buzz will matter a lot less to me come June. But part of college scouting early in the season is identifying players set to make the leap as juniors. I think Lewis's leap as a more mature, thoughtful, and explosive hitter has already begun, and it'll be reflected on the field this upcoming season. I've thrown out a Yasiel Puig comp in the past for his ceiling and I'm sticking with that for now. As an added prospect to prospect bonus, his game reminds me some of Anthony Alford. Your mileage might vary on how in the draft a player like that could go, but it sure sounds like a potential premium pick to me.
1.12 – Boston Red Sox | Barnegat HS LHP Jay Groome (1st)
Working in Jay Groome's favor is how advanced he is for a teenager. Unlike with many high school prospects, the expectation of a five year (give or take) waiting period does not apply. A big league cameo in September 2019 a month after turning 21-years-old is in play. Whether we're talking fantasy or real life, nobody has to be told how rare true big league ace upside is. Adding Groome to the Phillies sudden — love how only in a baseball rebuild could eighteen months or so be considered sudden — pitching surplus would give them a potential difference-maker to pair with their otherwise more good than great (yet plentiful) collection of young hurlers.
I'll warn everybody now that what you are about to read is the most annoyingly negative report on a pitcher coming off of a six-inning, fourteen strikeout performance as you could possibly imagine. That may be a pretty big stunner (or not, I'm no mind reader) to regular readers who ought to know two things about me by now: 1) I'm relentlessly positive about prospects, and 2) I've had Groome as my first overall prospect in this draft since late last summer and never really considered making a switch after seeing the big lefty throw three earlier times this winter/spring. I walked away from last night's effort wondering if Groome's stranglehold on the top spot should finally be loosened. Part of the thinking there is that Groome came into this start with an almost impossibly high bar set by his previous performances over the past calendar year. I wanted to see him go out there tonight and cement his status as the draft's clear top prospect, and finally, mercifully, end the 1-1 discussion once and for all. If that sounds like the idiocy of getting on a player for not meeting my own arbitrarily set standards for his performance, then you're exactly right. I'm not proud of that attitude, but I think a hyper-critical eye is needed when trying to separate a top ten talent (which Groome certainly is) from a potential 1-1 candidate (which he was 100% going in…and still could be even after a dominating statistical night that somehow left me wanting more).
Groome came out firing in the first with a string of low-90s fastballs (93, 94, 92, 93) before dropping a picture perfect 78 MPH curveball that made the Gloucester Catholic's leadoff man's knees buckle and the crowd of scouts and execs behind home plate (as well as a few thousand of their closest friends) audibly "oooh." Incredibly, that was just the first of five different "oooh" curves he'd throw all night: there were two more in the fifth inning and two more after that in his sixth and final frame. I had that pitch ranging from 74-78 on the evening. Everything about the pitch is plus to plus-plus, though I think you could quibble some with a slightly slowed arm speed on the offering that tips it just enough for HS hitters to notice, but not nearly enough for them to react. The pitch is so good that there's a chance he can get away with the slight pause in pro ball for a while; obvious point is obvious, but that's really high praise. Groome's curve is special and that alone makes him a top ten prospect in this class.
After going 93, 94, 92, 93, and 78 on the first batter, Groome went 93, 77, 92, 94, and 93 to the second hitter. That basic pattern — work off the fastball, mix in one curve per plate appearance — was followed by Groome for much of the game. I won't say my notes were perfect — my focus on the fast-paced, well-pitched (though admittedly not particularly crisply played otherwise) game was a solid 98% throughout, but taking in the atmosphere occasionally led to a missed radar reading or two — but I only had Groome dropping two curves to the same batter on four occasions. This strategy obviously worked (14 strikeouts is 14 strikeouts) with the threat of a bigger fastball than he wound up showing, average fastball command that flashed better in certain at bats, and that devastating curve ranking as the reasons why in ascending order of importance.
Everything you've already seen, read, or heard about Groome's mechanics held up. They are close to picture perfect. I've long been on the record of only caring about mechanical extremes, and I'd say with great confidence that Groome's arm action and delivery are on that happy tail of the bell curve. With his frame, bulked up from a boy late last summer to a rock solid man by now (though I'd argue with some loss of athleticism), his age, and those textbook mechanics, it's easy to imagine a day in the not so distant future where Groome is a consistent mid-90s arm if he wants to be. Of course, that's all projection at this point: Groome's velocity on this day fluctuated from those early game low-90s peaks to a strange middle inning dip to the mid- to upper-80s. I was almost positive while watching live that he wasn't working in his changeup — some around me thought otherwise, for what it's worth* — but I had him with an 85, 86, 87, and four 89's between innings three and five. After thinking about it some more I could buy the mid-80s pitches being his attempt at the change to give the scouts a little taste of his third pitch; if so, I've seen it look better, but the arm action sure looked like the fastball, so at least there was that. Still, the 89's for a well-rested teenage arm on a nice night weren't exactly typical of what we've come to expect out of a potential first overall pick. He rebounded some in his final inning, sitting 90-91 with his fastball while relying more on the curve than in any other part of the game to that point. His final pitch of the night was a 92 MPH fastball that was swung through for eighth strikeout in a row to end the game and fourteenth overall.
(* Groome himself identified the pitch as a change: "As far as my command goes, I think that's pretty good, but I need to show a little more depth to my changeup. I'm not really getting out in front of it and left a couple up high today. They fouled it off, they didn't really make me pay. Later on down the road, I have to get that good depth on it.")
This is the point in the report where I'm supposed to make a grand conclusion about what I saw out of Groome on the night. Well, I've got nothing. I selfishly wanted to see Groome at his very best — again, it's worth pointing out that the man had fourteen strikeouts in six innings and that's not his best — so that I could walk away ready to declare the race for 1-1 and top spot on my board over. The obvious good news is the confirmation that his curve and mechanics are both 1-1 caliber. His fastball has been in the past, but wasn't on this night. I'm not terribly concerned about one good but not great velocity night — the fastball was still commanded fairly well (average to above-average), had such obvious late life that even my old eyes could see it, and came out of a deceptive enough slot that it had hitters taking bad swings all evening long — but I think the summer showcase version of Groome's heater is (unsurprisingly) less the real thing than what we've seen out of him this spring. His changeup remains an open question, but that's not atypical for a big-time high school arm with Groome's brand of one-two punch locked and loaded for bear most starts. The development of his physique continues to surprise me — it's as if he finds a way to pack on a pound or three of good weight every time I see him — but I do worry some that he's getting close to the danger zone of sacrificing some looseness and athleticism, both facets of his game that excited me so much about him last summer, for strength. Add it all up (above-average fastball with plus upside, clear plus curve, changeup with a chance to be average, elegant mechanics, and a pro-ready body) and it's clear that Jay Groome is a really, really good pitching prospect. What isn't clear, however, is whether or not he's the best amateur prospect in the country. For some, not yet knowing is knowing; when the risk of taking a teenage arm gets factored in, Groome not being a slam dunk pick above the rest means the risk is too great to pass on similarly valued peers (Puk, Lewis, Moniak, Rutherford, Perez, Ray, whomever) with more certainty. I think that's where the Phillies are currently at in their evaluation. Between Groome's staggering perfect world ceiling and moderate (for a HS arm) floor (less projection in his body than most, plus his mechanics portend good things to come) and the less than thrilling options that surround him at the top of the class, I'd have a hard time removing his name from 1-1 consideration if I was in charge of such a pick.
1.13 – Tampa Bay Rays | Pope HS 3B Josh Lowe (9th)
When I go through my mental rolodex of every player I've seen up close, few stand out as more impressive than Lowe. He makes the most challenging sport to play well look easy, often comically so. As a third baseman, I'd put him down for plus tools in foot speed, arm strength, and raw power. Then there's also his obvious exceptional athleticism – guys who can pitch and hit and field at his level tend to only get away with it by being pretty special athletically – and a measured, smart approach to hitting that is almost as if he has the strike zone knowledge of, you guessed it, a top pitching prospect.
I know Mickey Moniak has the alliterative name thing going for him, but Josh Lowe is the closest thing to a Marvel-style super hero in this year's high school class. What can't he do? Three clear plus tools (power, arm, speed) with two sure to help in fantasy, stellar defense at the hot corner, elite athleticism, and the fallback option of taking his talents (90-95 FB, intriguing CU and SL) to the mound. Lowe has the raw talent to be one of the best third basemen in baseball.
He's a little bit of a higher variance prospect than [Nolan] Jones – more upside if it all clicks, but less certainty he turns into a solid professional than I'd put on Jones – so if I was a real scouting director with real future earnings on the line, I'm not sure I'd take him quite as high as he could wind up on my final rankings. The possibility, however, that he winds up as the best player to come out of this class is very real. He reminds me just a little bit of an opposite-hand version of this guy…
Bryant entered the summer with lofty expectations, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during the showcase circuit last summer. When he's on, he's a treat to watch. He has a lean, 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame and light-tower power that draws comparisons to a young Troy Glaus. The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he's struggling. He's athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn't be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound. Some scouts love Bryant's power enough to take him in the back half of the first round, while others turned him in as a token gesture and have little interest in him–especially for the price it will take to lure him away from his San Diego commitment.
I really, really like Josh Lowe, if that's not already clear. I mean, I did once kind of compare him to Babe Ruth. I think a team would be justified taking either Lowe or Jones in the top ten…and quite possibly the top five…or maybe even top three. Let me stop now before I really get too far ahead of myself.
1.14 – Cleveland Indians | Westminster Schools OF Will Benson (57th)
Will Benson has gotten the Jason Heyward comp for just about a full year now because that's what happens when you're a Georgia high school player built like he is (6-6, 220) with a future right fielder profile. The comparison ceases to work when you factor in pesky factors beyond size and geography; the inclusion of baseball ability (defense and plate discipline, most notably) muddles it up, but it's still good fun at this point in the draft process. Even though he's not Heyward, Benson does a lot well. He's got electric bat speed, he moves really well for a big guy, and he's as strong as you'd expect from looking at him. If he cleans up his approach and keeps working on his defense then maybe those Heyward comparisons will begin to look a little bit smarter. Or not! It's December and we're talking about teenagers, so nothing is written in ink.
The name Will Benson brings about all kinds of colorful opinions from those paid to watch him regularly. To call him a divisive prospect at this point would be an understatement. If you love him, then you love his power upside, defensive aptitude, and overwhelming physicality. If you're cool on him, then he's more of a future first baseman with a questionable hit tool, inconsistent approach, and overrated athleticism. I'm closer to the love said than not, but I think both the lovers and the haters can at least agree that his bat speed is explosive, his frame is intriguing, and his sheer strength as a human being should beget some monstrous BP performances.
I never really got the Jason Heyward comp for Benson – the most Heyward thing about Heyward is his plus defense, something that Benson is a long way from, if he ever gets there at all – but I like the connection between him and Kyle Lewis. I don't think he lasts until the second, but he would make for an excellent consolation prize for a team picking at the top of the first round that misses out on the Mercer star with their first pick. Or just grab them both and begin hoping that you've just taken care of your outfield corners for the next decade.
1.15 – Minnesota Twins | Plum Senior HS OF Alex Kirilloff (15th)
Alex Kirilloff is a clear step down athletically from the rest of the top tier, but, man, can he hit. If I would have kept him at first base on these rankings then there's no question he would have finished atop that position list. He's behind potential stars like Moniak, Rutherford, McIlwain, Benson, and Tuck for now, but that's for reasons of defensive upside and athleticism more than anything. By June, Kirilloff's bat might be too loud to be behind a few of those names. Seeing him this spring is a high priority for me; considering his high school plays home games about five hours away from me (to those that don't know: Pennsylvania is a sneaky long state), that should say a lot about what I think of him as a prospect. The fact that I could stop off and get a Colossal Fish & Cheese sandwich (delicious on its own and made better with the side of nostalgia that comes with it as it was part of my first official meal as a married man last summer) only sweetens the deal. Recent draft trends have pushed athletic prep outfielders up draft boards at the expense of bigger bats, but I think Kirilloff is good enough to break through.
As a hitter, Kirilloff can really do it all: big raw power, plus bat speed, a mature approach, and a hit tool so promising that almost every scout has agreed that he's an advanced hitter who happens to hit for power rather than the other way around. He's the rare high school prospect who could hit enough to have confidence in him as a pro even if eventually confined to first base.
Another potential angle with this year's prep outfielders is one that has been generally underplayed by the experts so far this spring. My sources, such as they are, have led me to believe that there is serious internal debate among many scouting staffs about the respective merits of [Blake] Rutherford and Kirilloff. The idea that there's a consensus favorite between the two among big league scouting departments is apparently way off the mark. This may surprise many draft fans who have read about 100x more on Rutherford this spring than Kirilloff, but I think the confusion at the top of the high school outfield class is real. I'd guess that most teams have either [Mickey] Moniak or Rutherford in the first spot; the teams that Moniak first, however, might not necessarily have Rutherford behind him at second. Kirilloff is far more liked by teams than many of the expert boards I've seen this spring.
It's really hard to break down two different high school hitters from two different coasts, but I'll do my best with what I have to compare Rutherford and Kirilloff. This is hardly a definitive take because, like just about any of my evaluations, I'm just one guy making one final call based on various inputs unique to the information I have on hand. I'm not a scout; I'm just a guy who pretends to know things on the internet. I give Kirilloff the slight edge in raw power, a definite arm strength advantage, and a very narrow lead in bat speed. Rutherford has the better swing (very close call), defensive upside (his decent chance to stay in center for a few years trumps Kirilloff's average corner outfield/plus first base grades), and hit tool. The two are very close when it comes to approach (both plate discipline and ability to drive it to all fields), athleticism (another slight lean Rutherford, but Kirilloff is underrated here), and foot speed. I actually had Kirilloff ahead by a hair going into the NHSI, but Rutherford's run of fantastic plate appearances on day two were too much to ignore. Both are great prospects and very much worth top half of the first round selections. I can't wait to see how high they wind up on my final board.
1.16 – Los Angeles Angels | Virginia C Matt Thaiss (27th)
I still like Matt Thaiss as the draft's top college catcher (with Zack Collins and the reports of his improved defense coming on very fast), but Okey and a host of others remain just a half-step behind as we enter the spring season.
Not everybody is convinced that Thaiss is the real deal, but I am. His one big remaining question heading into the year (defense) has been answered in a decidedly positive manner this spring. He showed enough in high school to garner Brian McCann comps from Baseball America, he hit as a sophomore, and he's off to a blistering start (including a nifty 15 BB/2 K ratio) in 2016. He's going early in this draft due in part to our odd rules, but he's a first round selection on merit.
1.17 – Houston Astros | Alamo Heights HS RHP Forrest Whitley (26th)
You really shouldn't have a first round mock draft that doesn't include at least one big prep righthander from Texas. It just doesn't feel right. Whitley, standing in at a strapping 6-7, 240 pounds, has the requisite fastball velocity (88-94, 96 peak) to pair with a cadre of power offspeed stuff. We're talking a devastating when on upper-80s cut-slider and an average or better mid-80s split-change that has been clocked as high as 90 MPH. I'm not sure how power on power on power would work against pro hitters — this is NOT a comp, but I guess Jake Arrieta has found a way to do it — but I'm looking forward to finding out.
RHP Forrest Whitley (Alamo Heights HS, Texas): 88-94 FB, 96-97 peak; above-average to plus 82-90 cut-SL; above-average 76-81 CB, flashes plus (some call truer SL); average or better 79-87 split-CU, up to 90; legit four-pitch mix; 6-7, 225 pounds
1.18 – New York Yankees | Chaminade Prep HS OF Blake Rutherford (11th)
Despite some internet comparisons that paint him as the Meadows, I think the better proxy for Rutherford is Frazier. Issues with handedness, height, and hair hue aside, Frazier as a starting point for Rutherford (offensively only as Frazier's arm strength blows the average-ish arm of Rutherford away) can be used because the two both have really good looking well-balanced swings, tons of bat speed, and significant raw power. The parallel gets a little bit of extra juice when you consider Frazier and Rutherford were/are also both a little bit older than their draft counterparts.
At some point it's prudent to move away from the safety of college hitters and roll the dice on one of the best high school athletes in the country. Blake Rutherford is just that. Him being older than ideal for a high school senior gives real MLB teams drafting in the top five something extra to consider, but it could work to his advantage developmentally in terms of fantasy. He's a little bit older, a little bit more filled-out, and a little bit more equipped to deal with the daily rigors of professional ball than your typical high school prospect. That's some extreme spin about one of Rutherford's bigger red flags — admittedly one that is easily resolved within a scouting department: either his age matters or not since it's not like it's changing (except up by one day like us all) any time soon — but talking oneself into glossing over a weakness is exactly what fantasy drafting is all about. I like Rutherford more in this range in the real draft than in the mix at 1-1.
We already ran down a number of the popular comps for Moniak, so we might as well give in to the same temptation with Rutherford. This has surely been a very painful read for the anti-comps crowd out there. My bad. As for Rutherford, the list of comps out there is impressive: Grady Sizemore (Fangraphs), Jim Edmonds (Baseball America), David Justice (swing only from Perfect Game), and Trot Nixon (I forget) are just a few of the big names tossed around this spring. I've likened Rutherford to a remixed version of both Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier in the past, and I think there's a chance that he might wind up as a player who has the best qualities of both of his soon-to-be fellow minor league outfield prospects. One fun outside the box comp that I heard recently was a young, lefthanded version of Moises Alou. It's not totally crazy. Here are some of the old Alou scouting reports I could dig up…
1990: "All tools above. Good hitting approach – with power. Not good base stealer – as yet. Great body for speed and power. Good stroke – stays inside ball. Very strong arm. Confident young man…plus tools. Good outfielder. Future All Star…perhaps not in CF but in RF. Would exhaust CF first."
1992: 7 hit, 6 power, 6 speed, 5 arm, 7 glove, 6 range "Good young player. Live body, All Star potential. Good contact type. 10-15 HR. SB potential 20-25. Everyday OF."
Funny that 6 power meant 10-15 home runs to that one scout (doubly so when we remember the offensive environment at the time), but grades aren't as easily translated as the bigger publications who push grading every prospect in every tool because that's the only way to cover minor league prospects would have you think. Did that get a little ranty? Whoops. Anyway, I think a lot of those grades and notes on Alou could be very easily be lifted instead from a report on Rutherford. His upside is that of a consistently above-average offensive regular outfielder while defensively being capable of either hanging in center for a bit (a few years of average glove work out there would be nice) or excelling in an outfield corner (making this switch early could take a tiny bit of pressure off him as he adjusts to pro pitching). His floor, like almost all high school hitters, is AA bat with holes in his swing that are exploited by savvier arms.
1.19 – New York Mets | Boston College RHP Justin Dunn (35th)
There are some interesting pitchers to monitor including strong senior sign candidate RHP John Gorman and statistical favorite JR LHP Jesse Adams, but the best two arms on the staff from where I'm sitting are both 2016 prospects (SO RHPs Justin Dunn [huge fan of his] and Mike King).
JR RHP Justin Dunn has the chance to have the kind of big junior season that puts him in the top five round conversation this June. Like Adams and Nicklas, Dunn's size might be a turn-off for some teams. Unlike those guys, it figures to be easier to overlook because of a potent fastball/breaking ball one-two punch. Though he's matured as a pitcher in many ways since enrolling at BC, he's still a little rough around the edges with respect to both his command and control. His arm speed (consistently 90-94, up to 96) and that aforementioned low-80s slider are what put him in the early round mix. If he can continue to make strides with his command and control and gain a little consistency with a third pitch (he's shown both a CB and a CU already, but both need work), then he'll really rise. That's a pretty obvious statement now that I read it back, but I think it probably can apply to about 75% of draft prospects before the season begins. No sense in hiding from it, I suppose.
I came very close to putting Justin Dunn in the top spot. If he continues to show that he can hold up as a starting pitcher, then there's a chance he winds up as the best pitching prospect in this conference by June. I'd love to see a better change-up between now and then as well.
1.20 – Los Angeles Dodgers | Indian Trail HS SS Gavin Lux (73rd)
I'm a huge fan of Gavin Lux and think he could wind up in the first round conversation come June.
Lux is a really intriguing young hitter with the chance to come out of this draft as arguably the best all-around hitter (contact, pop, patience) in this high school class. That may be a bit rich, but I'd at least say his straight hit tool ranks only below Mickey Moniak, Carlos Cortes, and Joe Rizzo. If his bat plays above-average in all three phases – he could/should be there with contact and approach while his raw power floats somewhere in that average to above-average range – then he'd certainly be in the mix. A fun name that I've heard on Lux that may or may not have been influenced by geography: a bigger, stronger Scooter Gennett. Here's some of what Baseball America had on Gennett in his draft year…
He profiles as an offensive second baseman, while Florida State intends for him to start at shortstop as a freshman. He's a grinder with surprising power and bat speed for his size (a listed 5-foot-10, 170 pounds), and though he can be streaky, his bat is his best tool. He's a better runner on the field than in showcase events, but he's closer to average than above-average in that department. Defensively he gets the most of his ability, with his range and arm better suited for the right side of the infield than the left. He's agile, though, and a solid athlete. Gennett would be a crucial get for Florida State, if he gets there. Most scouts consider him a third-to-fifth round talent.
A bigger, stronger, and arguably better (especially when likelihood to stick at short is factored in) Gennett feels about right, both in terms of draft stock (second to fourth round talent, maybe with a shot to sneak into the late first) and potential pro outcome. It should be noted that Lux's defensive future is somewhat in flux. I think he's athletic enough with enough arm to stick at short for a while, but there are many others who think he's got second base written all over him. A lot of that likely has to do with his arm – it's looked strong to me with a really quick release, but there's debate on that – so I'd bet that there's little consensus from team to team about his long-term position. Teams that like him to pick him high in the draft will like him best as a shortstop, so it's my hunch that he'll at least get a shot to play in the six-spot as a pro to begin his career.
1.21 – Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh RHP TJ Zeuch (30th)
Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch: 88-94 FB with plus sink, 96-97 peak; average or better 74-81 CB, flashes plus; 82-88 cut-SL, flashes average; 82-86 CU, flashes above-average; legit four-pitch mix; young for class; FAVORITE; 6-7, 225 pounds (2014: 6.63 K/9 – 2.75 BB/9 – 55.2 IP – 2.75 ERA) (2015: 9.20 K/9 – 2.56 BB/9 – 88.1 IP – 3.89 ERA) (2016: 9.57 K/9 – 2.46 BB/9 – 69.2 IP – 3.10 ERA)
1.22 – Pittsburgh Pirates | Wake Forest 1B Will Craig (13th)
I think I'm going to keep touting JR 1B/RHP Will Craig as the righthanded AJ Reed until he starts getting some serious national recognition. I cited that name in the college draft preview from October, so might as well keep mentioning it over and over and over…
I love Craig. In past years I might back down some from the love from reasons both fair (positional value, certain scouty quibbles about bat speed and timing) and not (seeing him ignored by all the major media outlets so much that I start to question my own judgment), but I see little way that will be the case with Craig. Sure, he could force my hand by cratering out with a disappointing junior season (a la Ryan Howard back in the day), but that would only shift him from sleeper first round talent to sleeper fifth round value. His is a bat I believe in and I'm willing to ride or die with it.
1.23 – St. Louis Cardinals | Colegio Individualizado PJ Education School SS Delvin Perez (5th)
One of the few things I'm sure about with this is class is that it's loaded with prospects who have the glove to stick at short. Perez leads the way as a no-doubt shortstop who might just be able to hit his way into the top half of the first round. I'd like to see (and hear) more about his bat, but the glove (range, footwork, release, instincts, everything), arm strength, athleticism, and speed add up a potential first round prospect. If that feels like me hedging a bit, you're exactly right. Teams have and will continue to fall in love with his glove, but the all-mighty bat still lords above every other tool. In some ways, he reminds me of a bigger version of Jalen Miller from last year. He won't fall as far as Miller (95th overall pick), but if we could all agree that mid-third is his draft floor then I'd feel a lot better about myself.
The Miller half-comp splits the difference (as a prospect, not as a pro) between two other recent comps for Perez that I see: Francisco Lindor and Oscar Mercado. Long-time readers might remember that I was driving the Mercado bandwagon back in the November before his draft year…
I'm on board with the Mercado as Elvis Andrus 2.0 comps and was out ahead of the "hey, he's ahead of where Francisco Lindor was at the same stage just a few years ago" talk, so, yeah, you could say I'm a pretty big fan. That came out way smarmier than I would have liked – I'm sorry. The big thing to watch with Mercado this spring will be how he physically looks at the plate; with added strength he could be a serious contender for the top five or so picks, but many of the veteran evaluators who have seen him question whether or not he has the frame to support any additional bulk. Everything else about his game is above-average or better: swing, arm strength, speed, range, hands, release, pitch recognition, instincts.
I bet big on his bat coming around and lost. Mercado went from fifth on my very first board (ten months ahead of the draft, but it still counts) to 81st on the final version to the 57thoverall pick of the draft in June. He's the cautionary tale (for now) of what a young plus glove at shortstop with a questionable bat can turn out to be. On the flip side, there's Francisco Lindor…
Lindor's defensive skills really are exemplary and there is no doubt that he'll stick at shortstop through his first big league contract (at least). As for time/age, well, consider this a preemptive plea in the event Lindor struggles at the plate next season: the guy will be playing his entire first full pro season at just eighteen years old. For reference's sake, Jimmy Rollins, the player I compared Lindor's upside to leading up to the draft, played his entire Age-18 season at Low-A in the South Atlantic League and hit .270/.330/.370 in 624 plate appearances. A year like that wouldn't be a shocker unless he goes all Jurickson Profar, a name Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks recently evoked after watching Lindor, on the low minors. Either way, I'm much happier with this pick now than I would have been a few months ago. Cleveland saw the opportunity to land a superstar talent at a premium defensive position and went for it, high risk and all.
That pick (and I really shouldn't say just the pick itself: all of the subsequent development credited to both the individual player and the team should be noted as well) has obviously gone about as well as humanly possible. It's like the total opposite of what happened to Mercado! Lindor is already a star and looks to be one of the game's best shortstops for years to come. I'm not ready to hang that kind of outcome on Perez, but I think it's at least within the realm of realistic paths. I'd say not quite Lindor (15th ranked prospect by me), not quite Mercado (81st), and something more like Miller (46th) is my most honest take on how I generally view Perez at this precise point in time. As the Mercado example shows, drastic change can never be ruled out.
The MLB Draft: go big on upside or go home, especially early on day one. And if you've got the smarts/guts enough to do just that, then make it a shortstop when possible. And if you're going to gamble on a high risk/high reward shortstop, make it as young a shortstop as you can find. And if that young shortstop also happens to have game-changing speed, an above-average to plus arm, plus raw power, and a frame to dream on, then…well, maybe Delvin Perez should be talked more about as the potential top overall prospect in this class then he is. I know there's some chatter, but maybe it should be louder. What stands out most to me about Perez is how much better he's gotten over the past few months. That, combined with his youth, has his arrow pointed up in a major way.
For what it's worth, I've heard from a few different independent sources that are steadfast in their belief that Perez will be the clear best player from this class within three years or less. To say that said reports have helped push me in the recent direction of Perez as a serious candidate to finish in the top spot on my own board would be more than fair. When I think of Perez, I can't help but draw parallels to Brandon Ingram, freshman star at Duke and sure-fire top two pick in next month's NBA Draft; more specifically, I think of Perez as the baseball draft version of Ingram (young, indicative of where the game is headed, and the next evolutionary step that can be traced back to a long line of similar yet steadily improving players over the years) when stacked up to Blake Rutherford's Ben Simmons (both excellent yet perhaps slightly overhyped prospects getting too much love due to physical advantages that won't always be there). I'm not sure even I buy all of that to the letter (and I lean towards Simmons as the better NBA prospect, so the thing falls apart quickly), but there are certain characteristics that make it fit…and it's a fun hook.
Also for what it's worth, I've heard from a few friends who are far from sold on Perez the hitter. That's obviously a fair counterpoint to all of the enthusiasm found in the preceding avalanche of words. Will Perez hit enough to make the kind of impact worthy of the first overall selection? This takes me back to something tangentially related to Kyle Mercer, another potential 1-1 candidate, back in February…
It goes back to something I mentioned in the comments section a few weeks back: guys either learn to hit or they don't. That's my paraphrased take from this scout's quote talking about the likelihood of Jahlil Okafor improving his outside shot as a professional: "He needs to become a better shooter and free throw shooter. He either will or he won't." Scouts work very hard evaluating amateur and minor league talent across the country, so their collective insight into projecting a young hitter's future is not to be dismissed. But…can we ever really know how a guy is going to react when thrown into the professional environment? A 95 MPH fastball with movement is a 95 MPH fastball with movement at any level. Plus speed, outstanding glove work, and the ability to miss bats are all translatable skills when honed properly. Hitting is an entirely different animal.
In other words, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The Perez supporters –myself included, naturally – obviously believe in his bat, but also believe that he won't necessarily have to hit a ton to be a damn fine player when you factor in his defensive gifts and plus to plus-plus speed. That's part of what makes drafting a highly athletic shortstop prospect with tons of youth on his side so appealing. Even if the bat doesn't fulfill all your hopes and dreams, the chances you walk away with at least something is high…or at least higher than at any other position. It gives players like Perez a deceptively high floor. I'll annoyingly repeat what I said about Rodgers here one more time…
That's a player worthy of going 1-1 if it all clicks, but there's enough risk in the overall package that I'm not willing to call him the best player in this class. Second best, maybe. Third best, likely.
That's what I said last year about Rodgers before eventually ranking him third overall in his class. I have similar thoughts about Perez, but now I'm reconsidering the logic in hedging on putting him anywhere but first overall. A sky high ceiling if he hits and a reasonably realistic useful big league floor if he doesn't makes him hard to pass on, especially in a class with so few potential stars at the top. He's blown past Oscar Mercado and Jalen Miller, and now shares a lot of the same traits that have made Francisco Lindor a future star. I don't see Perez as the type of player you get fired for taking high, but rather the kind of player that has ownership looking at you funny for passing up after he makes it big. All that for a guy who nobody can say with compelling certainty will ever hit. I love the draft.
1.24 – San Diego Padres | Carroll HS SS Hudson Sanchez (248th)
Hudson Sanchez is another favorite and I'm intrigued to see if he's still got any significant growing left in him; if so, he might be one of those players who can hang at short, but winds up so close to what we envision the ideal third baseman to be that there's really no other option but to play him at the hot corner in pro ball. Have to appease the Baseball Gods, after all.
Hudson Sanchez, a righthanded bat with some thump out of Texas, is on the opposite side of the age spectrum as one of this class's youngest prospects. Though not quite the same prospect, it's worth keeping in mind that Sanchez is just a few weeks behind Perez.
1.25 – San Diego Padres | Kent State LHP Eric Lauer (52nd)
As much as I like all three of those pitchers, there's still a decent-sized gap between Eric Lauer and the field. Lauer, the third lefthander in my MAC top four, combines the best of all of the prospects below him on the rankings. There isn't a box that he doesn't check when looking for a potentially quick-moving above-average mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. He's an athletic (like Plesac) lefthander (like Deeg/Akin), with good size (like Deeg/Plesac), very strong performance indicators (10.78 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9), above-average heat (88-94) that he commands like a pro, and a complete assortment of offspeed pitches (74-77 CB, 78-82 SL, emerging CU) he can throw in any count. One could quibble by noting there's no singular knockout pitch here – maybe with continued work one of his secondaries can become a consistent plus pitch, but certainly not presently – so maybe Lauer's best case scenario outcome isn't quite that of some of his peers across the country, but that's a nitpick for a still impressive ceiling/high floor starting arm. Maybe you don't love him – I kind of do, clearly…but maybe you don't – but he's still a prospect that's hard not to at least like.
1.26 – Chicago White Sox | Louisville RHP Zack Burdi (33rd)
1.27 – Baltimore Orioles | Illinois RHP Cody Sedlock (67th)
Despite all the words and attention spent on Shawaryn, I gave very serious consideration to putting Cody Sedlock in the top spot. Properly rated by many of the experts yet likely underrated by the more casual amateur draft fans, Sedlock is a four-pitch guy – there is a weirdly awesome high number of these pitchers in the Big 10 this year — with the ability to command three intriguing offspeed pitches (SL, CB, CU) well enough for mid-rotation big league potential. I try not to throw mid-rotation starter upside around lightly; Sedlock is really good.
1.28 – Washington Nationals | Walton HS 3B Carter Kieboom (14th)
Carter Kieboom was with the third base prospects in my notes up until about a month or so ago. The buzz on him being good enough to stick at shortstop for at least a few years grew too loud to ignore. In fact, said buzz reminds me quite a bit about how the slow yet steady drumbeat for Alex Bregman, Shortstop grew throughout the spring last season. Beyond the defensive comparison, I think there's actually a little something to looking at Kieboom developing as a potential Bregman type impact bat over the next few seasons. He checks every box you'd want to see out of a high school infielder: hit (above-average), power (above-average raw), bat speed (yes), approach (mature beyond his years), athleticism (well above-average), speed (average), glove (average at short, could be better yet at third), and arm (average to above-average, more than enough for the left side). He'd be neck and neck with Drew Mendoza for third place on my third base list, but he gets the bump to second here with the shortstops. At either spot, he's a definite first round talent for me.
1.29 Washington Nationals | Florida RHP Dane Dunning (-)
A copy/paste error this morning kept Dunning off of the top 500 rankings. Now I'm paranoid that he's not the only name missing since I tend to copy/paste in bunches. Anyway, Dunning has a really good arm. Going off memory, I think he was ranked somewhere just after the 200 mark near the Matt Krook, Matthias Dietz, Greg Veliz, and Tyler Mondile band of pitchers. My inexplicably unpublished notes on him…
JR RHP Dane Dunning: 88-94 FB with plus sink, 96 peak; average or better 81-83 SL; no longer uses good mid-70s CB as much; average 82-87 CU, flashes above-average with plus upside; improved command; good athlete; 6-3, 200 pounds
2014: 11.57 K/9 – 4.71 BB/9 – 21 IP – 5.14 ERA
2015: 8.25 K/9 – 3.45 BB/9 – 60.1 IP – 4.05 ERA
2016: 10.28 K/9 – 1.45 BB/9 – 68.1 IP – 2.50 ERA
1.30 – Texas Rangers | North Florida Christian LHP Cole Ragans (86th)
LHP Cole Ragans (North Florida Christian HS, Florida): 86-92 FB, 93 peak; average or better 71-77 CB, above-average upside; average 74-81 CU with sink; plus athlete; good deception; Sean Newcomb 2.0; PG comp: Jon Lester; 6-4, 185 pounds
1.31 – New York Mets | Connecticut LHP Anthony Kay (69th)
Much as I like him, I don't necessarily view Anthony Kay as a first round arm. However, the second he falls past the first thirty or so picks he'll represent immediate value for whatever team gives him a shot. He's a relatively high-floor future big league starter who can throw four pitches for strikes but lacks that one true put-away offering. Maybe continued refinement of his low-80s changeup or his 78-84 slider gets him there, but for now it's more of a steady yet unspectacular back of the rotation. Nathan Kirby (pick 40 last year) seems like a reasonable draft ceiling for him, though there are some similarities in Kay's profile to Marco Gonzales, who went 19th in his draft year. I like Kay for his relative certainty depending on what a team does before selecting him; his high-floor makes him an interesting way to diversity the draft portfolio of a team that otherwise likes to gamble on boom/bust upside plays.
1.32 – Los Angeles Dodgers | Louisville C Will Smith (41st)
Louisville JR C Will Smith: average hit tool with a swing geared towards contact; average to above-average arm; steady glove; average at best power; easy average or better speed; plus athleticism is what separates him from a long list of comparable bats below him; 6-0, 190 pounds
2014: .221/.333/.273 – 10 BB/9 K – 3/3 SB – 77 AB
2015: .242/.333/.331 – 19 BB/27 K – 2/4 SB – 178 AB
2016: .380/.476/.573 – 18 BB/12 K – 9/10 SB – 150 AB
1.33 – St. Louis Cardinals | Elk Grove HS OF Dylan Carlson (151st)
Dylan Carlson (fast-rising bat I've heard called a "second round version of Kirilloff")
1.34 – St. Louis Cardinals | Mississippi State RHP Dakota Hudson (19th)
As for the actual data above, I'd say that Hudson's number is eye-opening and wholly consistent with the kind of stuff he throws. Are we sure he isn't the best college pitching prospect in the country?
No comp is perfect, but I still like the Taijuan Walker ceiling on Hudson. I don't know if he hits the same peaks as Walker – the Seattle star is the better athlete, plus took full advantage of the strength training, pro coaching, and King Felix good vibes osmosis available to him after signing as a teenager – but the two share a lot of stuff similarities.