Robert Colvile
Young voters won't buy into the Conservative Party if they can't buy houses
Prospective young buyers unable to get on the housing ladder represent one of the gravest long-term threats to the Tories
22 Jun 2017, 1:46
Updated: 22 Jun 2017, 4:54
IT didn't look like a Day of Rage – more like a school trip with attitude.
Hundreds of sweltering young demonstrators, in T-shirts and shorts, trooped through the streets of London shouting: "Justice for Grenfell!" to the tune of "We Are The Champions".
Day of Rage protesters marched through Westminster demanding justice for the Grenfell fire victimsCredit: Getty Images
A protest meant to bring the Tories to their knees barely made them tremble.
But in the longer term, it is those young demonstrators who do indeed represent the gravest threat to the Tories — not because of the slogans they were chanting but because of what they represent.
In the old days, Britain voted along class lines: Labour was for the poor, the Tories were for the rich.
The protest was meant to bring the Tories to their knees but barely made them trembleCredit: Alamy
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Today, the great divide is age. At the election, just 19 per cent of teenagers voted Conservative, and 66 per cent Labour. Among over-70s, it was almost exactly the opposite.
This has, traditionally, been good for the Tories. There are more elderly people, and more of them vote.
But looking into the future, things look very different.
On election day, there was a bit of a fuss when a Hackney primary school being used as a polling station displayed ­pro-Communist slogans, drawn by the children, in its windows.
However, these young demonstrators who do indeed represent the gravest threat to the ToriesCredit: Alamy
It's not hard to see where the kids got the idea from — a survey in the Times Educational Supplement shortly before the election found that, thanks partly to the school funding cuts, 68 per cent of ­teachers were planning to vote Labour — and just eight per cent Conservative.
Senior Tories are convinced their party would have won the election outright if parents hadn't been getting letters from headteachers during the campaign spelling out precisely how many staff they were having to fire.
Home ownership is the magic wand that turns placard-waving Lefties into pipe-smoking Tories
For many Tories, this makes that crowd of protesters look like the future. They see a generation of young Corbynites emerging, trained to regard Tories as lower than vermin and socialism as a great idea.
Of course, as they grow older, voters tend to become more conservative. There's a famous line that young people who vote Tory have no heart and grown-ups who vote Labour have no brain.
Young Corbynites are emerging, trained to regard Tories as lower than vermin and socialism as a great ideaCredit: PA:Press Association
But it's not just getting old that turns people into Tories. As Margaret Thatcher knew when she brought in the right to buy your own council house, it's giving them a stake in society — not least their own home.
Home ownership is a brilliant thing in and of itself. But it's also the magic wand that turns placard-waving Lefties into pipe-smoking Tories.
Between 1966 and 1997, the Tories had a lead of roughly 30 points in the polls among owner-occupiers.
At this month's election, according to pollsters YouGov, 53 per cent of homeowners voted Tory and 32 per cent Labour.
Among renters, it was precisely the reverse: 51 per cent for Labour, 31 per cent for the Tories.
Senior Tories are convinced their party would have won the election outright if it wasn't for education cutsCredit: Alamy
Obviously, these figures reflect the fact that homeowners also tend to be older.
But home ownership is also linked to a whole lifestyle that tends to make you Tory. Being married.
Having a good job. Owning more than one car. Living an affluent life in the suburbs or the countryside.
These people are the bedrock of the Tory vote. But their numbers are shrinking.
In 2015-16, 62.9 per cent of Britons were homeowners — the lowest proportion in 30 years. In 1990, 40 per cent of those aged 20 to 24 owned their own home.
The housing crisis is also driving potential young buyers away from the ToriesCredit: Getty Images
Today, it's under ten per cent. To put it another way, 25 years ago 60 per cent of us were on the housing ladder by the time we hit 30.
Today, that proportion has halved — and those who do strike it lucky need to have really good jobs, or really kind parents.
Fewer people having kids and fewer owning homes means fewer inclined to vote Tory
This is also affecting family lives. As the book Jilted Generation pointed out in 2010, people in Britain tend to wait until they have homes to start ­families. Almost three million Britons were delaying getting married because of their housing situation.
Some 385,000 couples — three times the number getting married in the average year — had put off their vows.
Margaret Thatcher understood turning people into Tories meant giving them a stake in societyCredit: PA:Press Association
The economic and social costs of this are huge: Workers who can't move to get ­better jobs because they can't afford the houses. Families that shrink or never form.
But it also represents an existential threat to the Conservative Party. Fewer people having kids and fewer owning homes means fewer inclined to vote Tory.
Year after year, decade after decade, we've built far fewer houses than we need to in order to keep pace with population — even if you take immigration out of the equation.
That's why houses in Britain are now among the most expensive in Europe — and the smallest too.
Theresa May must take proper action and stop worrying about upsetting her votersCredit: Getty Images
It's why house prices in the capital are now 14 times the average London wage — and prices across the country are up 259 per cent since 1997.
The Tories have been reluctant to take proper action for fear of upsetting their voters — who tend to be the kind of people who already have houses and don't want any more blocking the view.
But if they bow to their core vote for long enough, there won't be any core vote left.
Just hordes of angry young people, mad that they'll never be able to afford homes of their own — and right to be so.
Robert Colvile is editor of news website CapX.