Stefaan De Rynck
~ Public policy, leadership, EU politics
A bonus under your Christmas tree?
Posted by Stefaan De Rynck in EU Politics, Leadership
banks, Bonus, City, European Union, regulation, Wall Street
End of the year marks the start of the bonus season on Wall Street and in the City of London. Stories on who gets what will be followed closely, not just by anti-bank populists but also by traders themselves. On the website of the Financial Times, articles on bonuses tend to reach the rank of the mostly read pieces. Financial Times readers are usually more interested in stories on bonuses than on capital requirements for banks.
Can you multiply your value?
A recent front page article on the Wall Street Journal ("Big Rally Pumps Up Wall Street Bonuses") debunks the key argument of the London financial sector to keep bonuses high. What is that argument first of all?
When regulators try to limit bonuses, finance lobbyists retort that they will not be able to retain top talent who boost their firms' performance. The European Union will soon impose a cap on bonuses, which shareholders can set at a maximum of double the base salary. The UK government is attacking such a cap in the court with legal arguments, but mostly because it fears an exodus of bankers from the City Continue reading →
2014 European elections: an electoral shake-up, and a similar Parliament?
elections, European Parliament, far right, Leadership, populism
From January onwards, the election heat will rise in Brussels. Next May, people in 28 European Union countries can vote for a new European Parliament. With widespread anger at austerity and record unemployment numbers in some countries, French President François Hollande fears for an institutional paralysis. More neutral observers, such as LSE professor Simon Hix, predict a breakthrough of anti-European forces. MEP Graham Watson of the UK Liberals sees a scenario that leads to "chaos".
The next European Parliament: change so that all can stay the same? Photo Reuters
That scenario is unlikely, however. The mainstream parties have a very large majority right now. While the centre-right European People's Party is likely to lose seats in many countries, it would need the equivalent of a political earthquake to topple it from its leading position, especially because the EPP is likely to have a reasonable result in some of the biggest countries. Social-democrats may actually do better than in 2009 in some bigger countries. In Britain, their 2009 score was particularly bad under the Gordon Brown government, and in Germany the recent national result for the centre-left beat the 2009 European result. This could make up for losses in other countries.
But another dangerous and more likely scenario than the one of paralysis could be the following: far-right and far-left parties make substantial gains, while the centre-right and centre-left keep a workable majority. And after a brief period of soul searching on the gap between citizens and Europe, the centrist parties in the European Parliament go back to business as usual.
So the impact on the actual workings of the Parliament of a massive protest vote may actually be minimal. But the impact on the Council and the general political impact in Europe may be more important. Imagine a not unlikely scenario whereby the Front National in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and the UK Independence Party in Britain gather the most votes in their countries. Also the far left Syriza could come first in Greece. The governments in power will want to harden their stance and become less easy to work with in the search for compromises. Continue reading →
Who are the most powerful politicians?
Posted by Stefaan De Rynck in Leadership, Public Policy
Democracy, Leadership, Merkel, Obama, Putin
Ranking political leaders is a tricky matter. Forbes' list of most powerful people recently put Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of "the handcuffed" Barack Obama, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel trailing closely behind. But can one really compare individual leaders and their power across different political systems?
Obama: "I checked the pictures on Angela's smartphone. She has no selfies". – Photo German government
Let's start with Obama versus Merkel. Democracies are often lumped together and opposed to authoritarian regimes. But this ignores the wide variation between the countries within the democratic family. Germany is a consensus democracy based on a proportional electoral system. While the US President often comes into office with less than half of the popular vote (or with just over 50% as currently for Obama), the parties forming a German government have usually the support of large majorities. The German executive controls policy-making and legislation, whereas forces in both executive and legislator determine the American President's agenda. The White House is expected to beg and cajole legislators, or defers the initiative to Congress as with the mini-budget deal this week. Such a situation would be unthinkable in Germany.
Under Merkel Germany's economy has boomed. Her 2013 election result Continue reading →
Crimea and Kosovo, one stands where one sits
What kind of EU democracy is emerging?
The German Judge and the Italian Banker