Odds & Ends: Jackson, Norman, Dye, Lester, Manny
By Mike Axisa | February 5, 2010 at 9:13pm CDT
Some links for Friday night…
MLB.com's Steve Gilbert tweets that the Diamondbacks and Edwin Jackson have made no progress towards reaching an agreement to avoid arbitration. A hearing is set for February 17th.
Chuck Finder of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette passes along a report from the independent St. Paul Saints that says that the Pirates have signed 25-year-old outfielder Anthony Norman to a minor league deal.
Several executives told Morosi that they expect Jermaine Dye to sign with an AL club, though no one's sure which one.
WEEI.com's Alex Speier says that Jon Lester's contract is one of the biggest bargains in baseball when you look at the deals Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander just received. Lester signed a five-year deal last March that guaranteed him at least $30MM.
Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times wonders if 2010 could be the final year of Manny Ramirez's career. If so, he has a chance to be just the eighth player in history to retire with a career OPS over 1.000.
ESPN's Keith Law says that the Orlando Hudson signing is a major upgrade for the Twins, likely enough to make them preseason favorites in the AL Central.
Meanwhile, Law thinks it's too risky for the Diamondbacks to give Mark Reynolds a multi-year contract right now. The two-sides have been discussing such a deal recently.
Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com says the Mets are more likely to sign a pitcher rather than another catcher this month.
Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle has some quotes from Travis Buck regarding his standing with the A's following all of their outfield additions, and adds that the team has found some interest in Dana Eveland and Gregorio Petit, both of whom were recently designated for assignment.
Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers Edwin Jackson Felix Hernandez Jermaine Dye Jon Lester Justin Verlander Los Angeles Dodgers Manny Ramirez Mark Reynolds Minnesota Twins New York Mets Oakland Athletics Orlando Hudson Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Transactions Travis Buck
Gomes, Reds No Closer To A Deal
Nationals Sign Shawn Estes To Minor League Deal
Jon Lester is one of the top 5 southpaw's in Baseball.He is quite a bargain. Good job by Theo locking him up last year.
The D-Backs should claim both Petit and Eveland.
Whatever the Mets do I can't understand how the management isn't disgrunted with the way things have gone this off-season.
If Manny has a good season, I wouldn't retire if I were him but This is his last chance to prove that he is a 18MM player.
I would have picked the Twins to win the division even before the O-Dog signing but with Denard and Hudson in that 1-2 combo makes a scary 1st inning for opposing pitchers.
Infield Fly
It would seemingly take a full-scale rebellion on the part of the fan faithful to break management's composure. For that reason I 'predict' that the next reality show to top the charts will be "Desperate Mets Fans." Watch for it!
but Fly, (Fly is my nickname for you) You should already know that I am a Twins fan and A Yankees fan. I mean Living in New York and liking the Mets and Watching the Mets play a lot, I can say that I am ecstatic about the Jason Bay signing but the Mets still have major holes to fill in that rotation. I already told you I am a huge Baseball fan. I care about all 30 teams. In my opinion of the Mets, I'm still going to go to Citi Field this year and root for them, they just need more pitching depth.
Yeah, I do know (going back to that thread with "jaydh" and some others), and I am not saying it's all bad. There are bright spots here and there. I am stoked that Johan and José are coming back, and am cautiously excited about Bay too. However, being a defense nut I am also nervous (big field, no Beltrán for a while…OMG, holy crap, etc.). Then there's pitching, and I just can't feel as optimistic about Maine and Pelf' as others seem to be, never mind the lack of a #2 SP. It is so clear how much work the Mets need to do in a broader sense (farm system, scouting, depth), and that the organization has basically destroyed its own reputation through its own ineptness. When I consider all of that and reflect on the current mindset of the leadership, I realize the organization shows little sense of urgency, and correspondingly, a lot of changes won't be happening anytime soon – at least not without some kind of incentive from fans. So the Mets could very well remain mediocre team for a long time for all they care, and this really bums me out.
"Fly" it is!
With me it's the Mets & Angels as my personal favorites. I have huge respect for Mike Soscia's brand of baseball – and I really dig his largely NL-style approach to the game. I am also a fan of several of the players, and love their hustle as a group. But as you know I keep tabs on all other 28 teams, because as we both agree, baseball is really about every team in the league. Every one of them has something interesting to pay attention to. Corny but yeah, "I love this game!"
Good for Theo, the deal for Lester balances out the garbage contracts he has on his hands now with Lowell and Ortiz.
A great week in Baseball!!!! well every week in Baseball is great!!!
really? with a career 1.002 OPS at the moment, if he has a bad enough year to retire, will his career OPS really still be above 1.000?
No thats why Manny has to have a good year. If he puts up an OPS of 860 for example it shouln't affect his career OPS but I wouldn't retire either way if I was Manny. He should make a push for 3,000 Hits and 610 Home Runs (1 ahead of Sammy Sosa).
If he puts up a OPS of 860, he retires.
Mike Axisa
He has over 9,400 plate appearances. It's hard to make a big dent in the career OPS at this point. If he puts up a .850 OPS this year, he should still be over 1.000 for his career.
Yeah Mike agree with you. Thats what I think. I said 860 but 850 will work.
Suzysman
In fact, going by the projections from Fangraphs
Bill James – 602 PA of .296/.406/.537/.943 leaves him at a career .998 OPS
CHONE – the 478 PA of .280/.374/.511/.885 puts him at a career .996 OPS
Marcel – the 481 PA of .289/.389/.509/.897 puts him at a career .997 OPS
So really, it might be more likely he doesnt end with a OPS over 1.000 for his career.
(whoops, that ended up in the wrong place. Oh well, close enough, lol)
I have a hare time believing those projections. I think they may be a little too high. Manny's OPS by month was 1.154 ; 1.026 ; June suspension/trying to get pregnant; .931 ; .881 ; .833 ; and .809 in the playoffs. So basically he faded all year from opening day on, and from a subjective point of view, he didn't seem to be able to catch up to a good fast ball anymore. I think the days of a .900 OPS are over for Manram.
Actually, 650 PA of an OPS as high as even .950 will put him at .999 for his career.
vtadave
And if he hits .288/.373/.478 (.851 OPS) in 542 PAs, that leaves him with a .990 OPS.
We are saying that if he doesn't finish the season with a career 1.000 OPS he won't retire. He will just try to improve it but I can't imagine that Manny will have his OPS on his mind throughout the Whole season. He's going to be thinking about more important things like trying to win the game for his team.
sploorp
Since when did Manny ever care about anything except Manny.
Thanks for doing the legwork. I changed the wording of the post.
What did you change Mike?
I changed it from "likely to" to "chance to."
No problem Mike.
And SPANdemonium, he changed it from "likely over 1.000" to "has a chance".
Yeah man. Got it. and Suzysman, My official MLBTR nickname is Spanny! haha.
Jays acquire Dana Eveland Mike.
coachofall
Hudson and Span are scary? I'm 46, overweight and can outrun Hudson. Figgins/Ichiro is scary. Span/Hudson is "just" a solid top 2
Who said anything about Speed? I'm saying that the Mariners and Twins and Phillies may have runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs in the 1st inning once every 3 games or more. Quality OBP guys and some good hitters who can run pretty well. The O-Dog can run even though the Dodgers called him Slow-Dog.
i agree he is an upgrade over Punto and the other crap thrown out there. But we are talking about a guy who lost his job to the Legendary Ronnie Belliard while his team was in the midst of a divisional race. This isnt a difference maker at the top of the order type player.
He had a bad august and september but that doesn't mean that he can't be a difference maker on the Twins.
He was 21st amongst all second basemen in mlb…behind Julio Lugo even. Hasnt been in the top 10 in this stat in 3 years. Nice player, upgrade for the twins not a differnce maker….and his range is in decline.
Hudson had a UZR/150 of -3.7 while Lugo was -22.9, Hudson is a difference maker because if you have Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, and Hardy behind you while Spanny is infront of you, You are expected to get on base, move Denard up, and hit. Orlando Hudson can do all of that while some can not. Also, Hudson is a good fast ball hitter. He is going to get nothing but fastballs when he is at the plate.
Compared to Nick Punto, EVERYONE is a difference maker.
Thats what I'm trying to say! coachofall doesn't believe me.
I really like the Twins offense, the Hudson deal is great because he forces Punto/Castilla out of the lineup.
agree with you 100%.
Now, that's what I call a difference maker!!!
Holy_Roman_Emperor
Indeed……………… It may be too soon right now to give Reynolds a long-term commitment right now.
Still, if Wellemeyer signs with the Giants or Rockies, you can just about automatically add 5 dingers to Reynolds' 2010 HR total.
humbb
Offsetting that is the fact that Reynolds will no longer be facing Bobby Howry.
Manny will probably never make it into the hall though because of the roids.
They weren't roids. It was a womens fertility drug.
Yeah, it only indicates steroids if his intent was anything other then carrying a child.
Though if you've ever talked to him you know how its been a life-long dream of his to give birth to a child. Leading me to totally believe it had nothing to do with roids and instead his desire to become the first male to pass a child!
Alright Suzysman you got me.
BlackSoxBandits
The media like him because he's goofy. They'll let him in.
The Media are getting tired of his Manny act. I do think he's going to get in. He has put up solid numbers off the drug.
0bsessions
That is the complete opposite of true. Outside of LA, the media pretty much hate him because he's goofy. Fans ate up the Manny Being Manny bit for a long time, but the media? He was not particularly liked among sports writers for most of his career. The media by and large hate anyone who avoids talking to them.
There is hate from the LA media as well.
The Media hate him because he tends to be kind of a jerk toward them.
Mike, this is the first time that you are active on the commenting…Nice!
It's a slow night.
They won't let him in because he's goofy. I'm sure that's not what you meant.
Yogi Berra was goofy too, but he never juiced.
Not a chance Manny gets in the Hall.
Manny might get in. It will be interesting to see what happens to Bonds, Clemens, etc.
start_wearing_purple
Actually the real test case will be next year. Palmeiro is up for the hall. Numbers alone state he's a pure lock… however…
He might get 10 percent of the vote next year.
I think a lot of the juicers that have the career stats will eventually get in the hall. But I also think that the press will pass over them for many years and make them sweat. And if they are borderline in any way, they don't get in.
Possible. I'm wondering if there could be a compromise, let the obvious juicers in if they admit they juiced and then add an asterisk.
bjsguess
Of course Lester's deal looks good – especially compared to Verlander and Felix. The article mentions it, almost as an after-thought, that they really aren't comparable. Lester had 2 less years of service time when the deal was signed (signed last year and he is one year behind those guys). Lester gave up considerable money while the Red Sox assumed tremendous risk.
It's still early but Lester has been a stud for the Sox over the past 2 years. Unfortunately, these deals don't always work out great. The Angels made a splash signing Ervin Santana last year. The guy was coming off a better season than Lester and signed a similar type deal. Bet the Angels could have that one back. If they tried to sign him today his cost would be much lower than it was last year.
DickAlmighty
Completely right on comparison of Lester's contract to Felix's and Verlander's. When Lester signed, he had two years of service time (i.e., he still had one pre-arb year left, and three arb-eligible years left, before he even hit free agency). When Felix and Verlander signed, on the other hand, they each had four years of service time (i.e., they only had two arb-eligible years left before they hit free agency).
The Red Sox signed Lester for four team-controlled years, and one year of free agency. The Tigers and Mariners signed Verlander and Felix, respectively, for two team-controlled years, and three years of free agency.
To look at those deals and conclude that the Lester contract is one of the biggest bargains in baseball, you'd have to be a complete buffoon with no knowledge of the baseball labor market. Apparently, WEEI.com's Alex Speier is a buffoon.
Another way to look at this is to pretend Lester didn't sign his contract.
In 2009, as a third-year pre-arb player, Lester probably would have been paid approximately $0.5 million (basically what all third-year players get). In 2010, 2011, 2012, assuming he got fairly normal arbitration raises, he'd earn, say, $4 million (2010), $8 million (2011), and $12 million (2012) (I'm just using these numbers for the sake of argument). Finally, assuming Lester stayed healthy and effective through all those years, let's assume Lester signed a one-year deal his first year of free agency (which is what we have to do to make it comparable to the five-year deal he signed in March 2009); he'd probably get something like $25 million for one-year deal.
So, total, over the course of five years, Lester would make $0.5 million, plus $4 million, plus $8 million, plus $12 million, plus $25 million ($49.5 million, or so). $30 million for five years sounds like a great deal for the Red Sox, right?
Wrong. Because the Red Sox assume all of the risk of a Lester injury or a Lester regression, those future years have to be discounted to account for the risk assumed.
I like to look at long-term deals as follows…
First year: Player gets 100% of what he is worth.
Second year: Player gets 92% of what he is worth.
Third year: Player gets 83% of what he is worth.
Fourth year: Player gets 75% of what he is worth.
Fifth year: Player gets 67% of what he is worth.
Under that forumla, a fair value for Lester (asusming a five-year deal) as of March 2009, would be calculated as follows: 100% of $0.5 million, plus 92% of $4 million, plus 83% of $8 million, plus 75% of $12 million, plus 67% of $25 million.
What's that equal?: Approximately $36 million. So, the Red Sox got a good deal for sure (even with the risk they assumed), but not a "biggest bargain in baseball," by far.
ReverendBlack
"$4 million (2010), $8 million (2011), and $12 million (2012) (I'm just using these numbers for the sake of argument)"
(The sake of your entire argument, you mean, the soundness of which now depends on those being accurate figures — which they probably aren't since you don't appear to be basing them on anything specific.)
Arbitration raises would fall in line with performance. If Lester plays in those years as he projects to (and that's…the whole point of the signing — that he projects to, that it is likelier that he will than it is that he won't), he probably gets considerably more than 8 and 12 million in 2011 & 2012. The commitment (and increased risk assumed in signing an older pitcher multi-year) required by resigning him in free agency is also put off another year (and ANOTHER, given the club option for 2014 you haven't even mentioned), which represents more value to a franchise than just whatever the difference is between the salary and what the salary would have been as FA.
If Lester plays as he projects to and as he has so far, it is a very strong deal. If he doesn't, it isn't. (You don't say!) This is the measure not just of the Hernandez & Verlander deals too, but of all contracts. Unlike the Seattle & Detroit deals however, if Lester doesn't play as well as expected, Boston will not be dramatically overpaying.
So I agree that calling Lester's contract a bargain is very premature, but to say that it appears that it will be a bargain would be entirely correct.
quintjs
I think the point was that while they are not directly comparable, the Red Sox pay Lester 11million for his first free agent year and have a 13million option for his second free agent year.
Felix and Verlander get paid about 20million per free agent year.
Sounds like a bargain to me, no matter how you look at it. It is those values that make it a bargain, not the overall dollar level as the overall level is skewed because of the service time.
Fair enough. Lester will get paid about 55%/65% in his 1st and 2nd (assuming Sox exercise option) years of free agency what Verlander/Felix will get paid in theirs, respectively. Based on the numbers alone, it does sound like a bargain right now.
formerdraftpick
I would still like to see the Pirates acquire Charlton Jimerson for depth at AAA instead of Norman.
DarthVader87
You know, Lester doesn't get the respect he should from the organization. He could have gotten a ton more money and they still haven't given him the 1 spot in the rotation, even though he has deserved it.