A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries
Ian M. Kidd, Jenny Davis, Andrew Fischer
Estuarine hydrodynamic modeling is complex, and predicting bathymetric outcomes from imposed hydrological changes requires models to encompass time periods spanning years, decades, or longer. Within this work, a first-order response model (FORM) was developed that doesn't require temporal or process components and represents a considerable computational saving compared with two-dimensional/three-dimensional morphodynamic models. FORM enables a final regime to be predicted using knowledge of only the initial regime and the causal change in the tidal prism. It builds on the power width/distance relationship (y = axn) for a simple estuary and allows for the addition of storages or tributaries. FORM was validated using data from 2004 and pre-1968 for the Petitcodiac River, New Brunswick, Canada, where considerable bathymetric change has occurred because of the Moncton Barrage. Linear regression of the modeled upper Tamar River estuary, Tasmania, Australia, revealed a significant and positive relationship between the predicted and actual estuarine widths (R2 = 0.89 p < 0.001, slope = 1.0085). Historical channel widths, representing various phases of estuarine geomorphology and development were modeled for 1830 and 1890 and were validated against data from an 1830 navigation chart. As a further validation of the 1806 result, the volume of silt accretion associated with the bathymetric change was calculated. The result (13.4 × 106 m3) was within the range of the observed volume of accretion since 1806 (10.0 × 106-15.0 × 106 m3). The model extends the applicability of existing regime models to similar coastal-plain estuaries composed of multiple tributaries, channels, and storages, regardless of synchronicity.
Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences
https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1
10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1
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coastal plains Agriculture & Biology 100%
coastal plain Earth & Environmental Sciences 84%
estuaries Agriculture & Biology 84%
estuary Earth & Environmental Sciences 63%
accretion Earth & Environmental Sciences 21%
tributary Earth & Environmental Sciences 20%
rivers Agriculture & Biology 16%
geomorphology Agriculture & Biology 15%
Kidd, I. M., Davis, J., & Fischer, A. (2017). A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries. Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences, 33(2), 468-480. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1
Kidd, Ian M. ; Davis, Jenny ; Fischer, Andrew. / A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries. In: Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences. 2017 ; Vol. 33, No. 2. pp. 468-480.
@article{69034e4796dc40e19e5067d73d40b841,
title = "A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries",
abstract = "Estuarine hydrodynamic modeling is complex, and predicting bathymetric outcomes from imposed hydrological changes requires models to encompass time periods spanning years, decades, or longer. Within this work, a first-order response model (FORM) was developed that doesn't require temporal or process components and represents a considerable computational saving compared with two-dimensional/three-dimensional morphodynamic models. FORM enables a final regime to be predicted using knowledge of only the initial regime and the causal change in the tidal prism. It builds on the power width/distance relationship (y = axn) for a simple estuary and allows for the addition of storages or tributaries. FORM was validated using data from 2004 and pre-1968 for the Petitcodiac River, New Brunswick, Canada, where considerable bathymetric change has occurred because of the Moncton Barrage. Linear regression of the modeled upper Tamar River estuary, Tasmania, Australia, revealed a significant and positive relationship between the predicted and actual estuarine widths (R2 = 0.89 p < 0.001, slope = 1.0085). Historical channel widths, representing various phases of estuarine geomorphology and development were modeled for 1830 and 1890 and were validated against data from an 1830 navigation chart. As a further validation of the 1806 result, the volume of silt accretion associated with the bathymetric change was calculated. The result (13.4 × 106 m3) was within the range of the observed volume of accretion since 1806 (10.0 × 106-15.0 × 106 m3). The model extends the applicability of existing regime models to similar coastal-plain estuaries composed of multiple tributaries, channels, and storages, regardless of synchronicity.",
keywords = "allometry, regime theory, siltation, tidal flats, Tidal prism, wetlands",
author = "Kidd, {Ian M.} and Jenny Davis and Andrew Fischer",
doi = "10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1",
journal = "Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences",
publisher = "Coastal Education & Research Foundation",
Kidd, IM, Davis, J & Fischer, A 2017, 'A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries', Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 468-480. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1
A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries. / Kidd, Ian M.; Davis, Jenny; Fischer, Andrew.
In: Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences, Vol. 33, No. 2, 03.2017, p. 468-480.
T1 - A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries
AU - Kidd, Ian M.
AU - Davis, Jenny
AU - Fischer, Andrew
N2 - Estuarine hydrodynamic modeling is complex, and predicting bathymetric outcomes from imposed hydrological changes requires models to encompass time periods spanning years, decades, or longer. Within this work, a first-order response model (FORM) was developed that doesn't require temporal or process components and represents a considerable computational saving compared with two-dimensional/three-dimensional morphodynamic models. FORM enables a final regime to be predicted using knowledge of only the initial regime and the causal change in the tidal prism. It builds on the power width/distance relationship (y = axn) for a simple estuary and allows for the addition of storages or tributaries. FORM was validated using data from 2004 and pre-1968 for the Petitcodiac River, New Brunswick, Canada, where considerable bathymetric change has occurred because of the Moncton Barrage. Linear regression of the modeled upper Tamar River estuary, Tasmania, Australia, revealed a significant and positive relationship between the predicted and actual estuarine widths (R2 = 0.89 p < 0.001, slope = 1.0085). Historical channel widths, representing various phases of estuarine geomorphology and development were modeled for 1830 and 1890 and were validated against data from an 1830 navigation chart. As a further validation of the 1806 result, the volume of silt accretion associated with the bathymetric change was calculated. The result (13.4 × 106 m3) was within the range of the observed volume of accretion since 1806 (10.0 × 106-15.0 × 106 m3). The model extends the applicability of existing regime models to similar coastal-plain estuaries composed of multiple tributaries, channels, and storages, regardless of synchronicity.
AB - Estuarine hydrodynamic modeling is complex, and predicting bathymetric outcomes from imposed hydrological changes requires models to encompass time periods spanning years, decades, or longer. Within this work, a first-order response model (FORM) was developed that doesn't require temporal or process components and represents a considerable computational saving compared with two-dimensional/three-dimensional morphodynamic models. FORM enables a final regime to be predicted using knowledge of only the initial regime and the causal change in the tidal prism. It builds on the power width/distance relationship (y = axn) for a simple estuary and allows for the addition of storages or tributaries. FORM was validated using data from 2004 and pre-1968 for the Petitcodiac River, New Brunswick, Canada, where considerable bathymetric change has occurred because of the Moncton Barrage. Linear regression of the modeled upper Tamar River estuary, Tasmania, Australia, revealed a significant and positive relationship between the predicted and actual estuarine widths (R2 = 0.89 p < 0.001, slope = 1.0085). Historical channel widths, representing various phases of estuarine geomorphology and development were modeled for 1830 and 1890 and were validated against data from an 1830 navigation chart. As a further validation of the 1806 result, the volume of silt accretion associated with the bathymetric change was calculated. The result (13.4 × 106 m3) was within the range of the observed volume of accretion since 1806 (10.0 × 106-15.0 × 106 m3). The model extends the applicability of existing regime models to similar coastal-plain estuaries composed of multiple tributaries, channels, and storages, regardless of synchronicity.
KW - allometry
KW - regime theory
KW - siltation
KW - tidal flats
KW - Tidal prism
KW - wetlands
U2 - 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1
DO - 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1
JO - Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences
JF - Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences
Kidd IM, Davis J, Fischer A. A First-Order, Morphological Response Model (FORM) for Predicting Hydrologically Induced Bathymetric Change in Coastal-Plain Estuaries. Journal of Coastal Research: an international forum for the littoral sciences. 2017 Mar;33(2):468-480. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00011.1