EXCLUSIVE: Trump Surging, Now Tied With Clinton In Michigan
REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Ted Goodman Contributor
November 04, 2016 2:14 PM ET
Republican nominee Donald Trump is tied with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan, according to a Strategic National Poll.
The Michigan statewide poll revealed Trump is now dead even with Clinton, in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
Trump and Clinton both received 44 percent support from respondents in a poll conducted Nov. 3, which was obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 4 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 3 percent. One percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and five percent said they were still undecided.
[dcquiz] The survey, conducted by Strategic National, a Republican leaning consulting firm based in Michigan, contacted 573 likely voters in the State of Michigan on Nov. 3. The survey reported that 39 percent of the respondents were affiliated with the Democratic Party, 34 percent affiliated with the GOP, 21 percent affiliated with an independent or third party, and 5 percent said they were "unsure" of their party affiliation.
Clinton is scheduled to make an appearance in Detroit Friday afternoon. Clinton will attempt to inject enthusiasm into reliable Democratic Party voters that came out for President Barack Obama in full force both in 2008 and 2012.
Trump appeared at two rallies in the state Monday, and his children, Donald Jr. and Ivanka stumped around the state this week. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz appeared at a campaign rally with vice presidential candidate Mike Pence Thursday in Portage, Mich. on the state's west side — an area where Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich performed well in the GOP primary.
Both candidates have made "six-figure" advertising purchases in the state in the last days before the election. Clinton's campaign dumped $2.5 million in Michigan in two days alone, according to tabloid news outlet TMZ.
Clinton enjoyed as much as a 13-point advantage over Trump in Michigan just two weeks ago. The Democratic nominee has not made Michigan a regular campaign stop while Trump has focused on the state and other rust belt states as a potential path to victory.
While Michigan hasn't voted for a Republican candidate for president since President George H. W. Bush in 1988, the state is home to vast swaths of conservative-leaning precincts and a well-established state party apparatus. Michigan's governor and both legislative chambers are controlled by Republicans and the state's congressional delegation is made up of nine Republicans and five Democrats.
Democrats have been able to win presidential elections by "running up the score" in its urban areas and population bases, something Clinton hoped would keep the state safely in her corner without diverting resources and time from other battleground states.
"Trump is over performing in key segments of the electorate especially in rural areas and Macomb County while Clinton is failing to get the numbers she needs out of the city of Detroit," John Yob, CEO of Strategic National, who conducted the poll, reported.
Michigan is considered the birthplace of "Reagan Democrats" after working-class whites began to abandon the Democratic Party in Michigan starting in the mid-1960s. They rejected the anti-war left and rising liberal wing, and supported Republicans including Ronald Reagan and Michigan's own, Gerry Ford.
The political winds shifted back to Democrats beginning in 1992 when the state voted for Clinton (Ross Perot received 19.3 percent of the vote, which may have been why Clinton defeated Bush). Trump is hoping to bring back the Reagan Democrats, evidenced by his intense focus on the state during the campaign's final days.
Out of the poll's respondents, 75 percent were contacted by landline, while 25 percent were contacted over cellular phone. The poll was conducted through landlines, using Interactive Voice Response and the margin of error for the poll is 4.09 percent.
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Tags : barack obama detroit donald trump gary johnson hillary clinton jill stein michigan
Ted Goodman