After America
Omar WaraichJanuary 10, 2016
The writer is a journalist.
SURVEY Pakistani television news channels, and one still routinely hears omnipotence and omniscience ascribed to the United States. In the background, we are told, there are powerful American officials discreetly manipulating events to their strategic satisfaction, in Pakistan and beyond.
The latest iteration of this conspiracy theory came in the wake of Narendra Modi's surprise visit to Lahore. Western pressure had been decisive in forcing India to resume talks with Pakistan, more than one television analyst claimed — without furnishing any proof.
It is true that Washington's influence was keenly felt in Pakistan, once upon a time. When Gen Pervez Musharraf's one-man rule was floundering, US officials stepped in to try and stave off its collapse. The Bush administration feared losing one of its much-vaunted 'frontline' allies in the war on terror.
Washington's influence is receding — globally.
But since 2011, the annus horribilis of US-Pakistan relations, Washington's influence has been in sharp decline. It is hard to think of any measure the US has been able to push through in terms of Pakistan without meeting resistance, including matters as perfunctory as visas for embassy employees.
There are a few reasons for this. Despite what many Pakistanis believe, the region is no longer important to the US. The war in Afghanistan, deeply unpopular at home, scarcely figures on the list of Washington's priorities. The Obama administration is merely hoping for the least worst of all possible outcomes.
Terrorism remains a threat, and in some ways a bigger threat than it has been in recent years. But that is down to the militant Islamic State group, and the alarming spread of its murderous ways across the Middle East and in terms of the adherents it has won in the West. 'Af-Pak' is no longer the central front in the war on terror, and Pakistan is no longer 'the world's most dangerous country'.
At the same time, Washington's influence is receding — globally. Western anxieties about 'decline' have been around since Oswald Spengler's famous volume on the topic, published in 1918. "Civilisation's going to pieces," bewailed Tom Buchanan, the vulgar Yalie character in F. Scott Fitzgerald's 1925 novel, The Great Gatsby. "I've gotten to be a terrible pessimist about things."
Since then, every decade or so, more sophisticated thinkers have written of US decline. There was a great period of panic between 1945 and 1970 as the US share of the world economy returned to pre-war proportions. Writers as various as Immanuel Wallerstein, Robert Keohane, and Paul Kennedy prematurely predicted the fall of US power.
But the US's two-decade-long unipolar moment has now likely come to an end. Whether the US decline is under way is still a subject of much debate, as Joseph Nye lays out in a recent book, but it is indisputable that American influence has diminished, while there's been what Fareed Zakaria terms "the rise of the rest".
The clearest evidence of this is the current Saudi-Iranian dispute. While Tehran and Riyadh try and carve up the Middle East between themselves — quite literally in the case of some countries — Washington is powerless to restrain either side.
The Saudis blame the Americans for signing last year's nuclear deal with Iran and dithering over Syria. The Iranians, especially the hardliners, remain suspicious of the US, taking note of its massive arms sales to the carbon-rich monarchies that fringe the Persian Gulf. Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, seems to trust King Salman more than he does Barack Obama.
As the US's clout contracts, regional alliances are forming independently. The most notable is the Saudi-led coalition waging a ruinous war in Yemen. Last November, Prince Mohammed — the barely 30-year-old dauphin who has accumulated three titles since his father's ascent to the throne — enlarged the coalition to 34 states, some presumed so loyal as to not merit notice of their inclusion.
To confirm Pakistan's place in the coalition, Riyadh dispatched its foreign minister to Islamabad this week. But Saudi Arabia's domestic economic woes severely constrain its ability to offer inducements, while the risks of inviting the Middle East's sectarian-tinged flames to South Asia are incalculable.
Strikingly, the so-called 'Islamic coalition' excludes any Shia-led countries. No Lebanon, no Iraq, no Syria, and certainly no Iran. As the Gulf states' decisions — to divert fighter jets from Syria to Yemen, and sever or downgrade diplomatic relations with Tehran — show, they are more concerned about Iranian influence than IS.
For Pakistan, this means that its traditional allies, the US and Saudi Arabia, are not just no longer on the same page, but they have other, more pressing concerns than the stability of the Muslim world's second most populous country and sole nuclear power.
Perhaps this loss of a sense of indispensability will prompt Pakistan to think of its own challenges without the easy option of turning to a powerful ally for a bailout — or to blame for its problems.
Published in Dawn, January 10th, 2016
Planettrekker
it is finally realizing and allowing the unsettled world to take rightly ownership of, and deal with their many home grown issues, does not mean that they are disengaged, defanged, or on the wane. It's a strategic shift. Any reading of unrevised, untainted history shows that civilizations come and go. It is not America's time yet.
aga khan
The author is correct-- Pakistan needs to wake up and sort out its own issues with out relying the largesse of US and SA.
Pervaiz Ali Mahesar
Very interesting information by the writer. He has carefully depicted the scenario about how deeply intertwined issues are in the Middle East. Indeed, many have written, as the writer admits, on the receding American power, globally. The write did not go beyond the title: "After America", What? Since the ME, EU, Africa, CAR's, including Russia, are facing economic, political, ethnic, migration, trans-border terrorism, drug trafficking, oil wars etc, I see China replacing US globally.
Amir Dewani
Despite whatever you say about the receding influence of America, tell me (i) Who is the biggest donor of the poor in the 3rd world? (ii) Who is the biggest investor in research and development of the latest state-of-the-art technology in the world today? (iii) Which country of the world has the biggest number of quality educational institutions? (iv) Tell me which country's visa is the most sought after in the world? So, my point is to be realistic about the realities,
fiicnfiif@gmail.com
Sorry that you forgot to mention the third major power supporting Pakistan - China.
@fiicnfiif@gmail.com .... China will support Pakistan only so long as Pakistan supports the CPEC and does not allow interference. Nawaz Sharif has made a commitment. If breaks his word to the Chinese that would be a problem for Pakistan. The Chinese only do business with honest brokers. Lying or breaking your word is drinking poison.
Time for the Pakistani state to start collecting taxes from its fat cat citizens. Financial self sufficiency is the first need of the hour.
Pakistan needs to drastically change its foreign policy. We are already there with China, but we need to do urgent work on developing and maintaining similar relations with other neighbors, namely; India, Iran and Afghanistan. Needless to say that our national interest is best served with stability in our own region.
An excellent article.
Shalone
There is nothing wrong if American influence recedes politically. It is one of the best countries to live where all races live relatively peacefully and much better than any other place, but internationally it is a bully. I hope the new power to replace USA or compete with is also democratic.
P. S. Natarajan
In a superficial sense, the US appears to be declining. But not really. Now or in the future real power of a nation would lie in knowledge and innovative technology. In this the US is still supreme and would remain so in the foreseeable future. Whence comes the Internet, I-Pod or shale-gas ? From China, Russia or India ? World just copies what the US thinks and makes.
@Shalone The next leading country could be under military rule or under communist rule and need not be democratic, but they could still garner great support from the world at large!
Fazil K.
@Amir Dewani. Yes but that super power caused devastation in the Middle-East (including Iran and Pakistan).
@Shalone. US has created havoc in foreigh countries and now Europe is bearing the consequences of US foreign policy in the Middle-East.
Kala Ingrez - کالا انگریز - काला अंग्रेज - কালো ইংরাজি
Pakistan needs to worry about Iran as the next nemesis ruled based on fear. Iran with record of interfering in other countries will find friends in New Delhi, Kabul and maybe in China to break up Pakistan.
If you are considering rise of China as one of the symptoms of fall of USA, you couldn't farther from the truth. If you are considering how the countries that once used to b the mouthpiece of USA don't listen to it anymore and this means fall of the US, you couldn't b more wrong. USSR was a bigger power than what China is today, yet it was only a blinker on the overall geopolitical radar, there are already indications that China will go the same way, similarly all the countries who don't listen to USA anymore, there are tens of them waiting in line to replace them, all of SE Asia, Africa, eastern Europe, these places are ripe forserving to the US cause.sir, USA isn't going anywhere, they are much more shrewd than you think they are
I agree as one can see how Putin is raising head in ME supporting Asad and americans are just watching --the no flyzone made by usa is broken by Putin in ME.similarly,China and russia are coming close.all this is due to defeat in afghanistan which significantly reduces the awe and might of usa and nato.Countries see it and act accordingly ie decreasing american influence globally--a decade ago no one have in their wildest imagination that americans will be pleading for peace talks and hand shake with taliban and taliban would be declining US offer repeatedly as a result,americans have to ask pakistanis to help in this regard.even india is at a loss due to changes in afghanistan.Badalta hai rung asma kaise kaise