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'Very unsettled' for Halloween? Another November storm and a white Christmas? Farmers' Almanac gets boldly specific with its winter forecast
By Stephanie Sigafoos
The Morning Call |
The Farmers' Almanac makes some bold predictions from fall into winter for the Lehigh Valley area and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. (MONICA CABRERA / THE MORNING CALL)
The wise-old weather predictions offered by the Farmers' Almanac make for good fodder at this time of year, warning of "polar coasters" and "teeth-chattering cold" before we've even reached the transition from summer to fall.
Every year since 1818, the almanac's long-range weather predictions draw the interest of readers, the ire of meteorologists and a chuckle of amusement from those of us who take it all with a measure of good humor.
On page 140 of this year's almanac, there's a detailed descriptor on how the publication predicts the weather. It says it uses a "specific and reliable set of rules" that were developed centuries years ago by David Young, the almanac's first editor. The rules have been "slightly altered and turned into a formula that is both mathematical and astronomical."
A tepid winter warmth or a seasonal 'polar coaster'? Farmers' Almanac predicts frigid temps, above-normal precipitation »
That secret formula is kept close to the vest by folks at the Farmers' Almanac headquarters in Lewiston, Maine. The only person who purportedly knows the formula is someone who goes by the pseudonym "Caleb Weatherbee," and he's not talking. In fact, both Caleb's identity and the formula are a "closely guarded brand secret" for the almanac, which says it's the oldest source of consecutively published weather forecasts, longer than the National Weather Service.
The forecasts in the almanac's print edition are broken down by zone, month and specific three-day time periods. The Lehigh Valley is lumped in with Zone 1, which encompasses the Northeast and New England.
Here's how the almanac lists some of its bold predictions from fall into winter for the Lehigh Valley area and the rest of Zone 1:
Oct. 28-31: Very unsettled for Halloween, especially New England.
Nov. 8-11: Rapid temperature changes, with storm intensifying, moving east.
Nov. 28-30: Storm along the Atlantic Coast, increasing winds, copious precipitation; not good for Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.
Dec. 4-7: Coastal storm along the Atlantic Seaboard; mixed precipitation, frigid air.
Dec. 24-27: Wet/white for Christmas. Rain showers (south), wet snow (north).
Among other dates of interest, the almanac says it's "red flagging" the first part of January due to a very active storm track expected to deliver "frequent bouts of heavy precipitation."
Finally, spring is anticipated to have a slow start with snow and unseasonably chilly conditions hanging on until April.
The Old Farmer's Almanac also calls for a "winter wallop"
"Get ready for shivers, snowflakes, and slush! Big chills and strong storms will bring heavy rain and sleet, not to mention piles of snow!" screams the headline from The Old Farmer's Almanac, the rival of the Farmers' Almanac founded in 1792.
This graphic shows The Old Farmer's Almanac weather map for winter 2019-20. (Distributed/The Old Farmer's Almanac)
The graphic from this published periodical suggests the Lehigh Valley is more "wet and wild" than "wintry." Almanac editor Janice Stillman also seems to predict above normal winter temperatures for the Northeast, instead targeting the Midwest and the Ohio Valley as the most-likely areas to see frigid and frosty conditions.
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Ominous headlines warn of wobbling polar vortex, Arctic outbreaks, and major snowstorms. What does it mean for the Lehigh Valley?
Overall, The Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for no fewer than seven big snowstorms from coast to coast this coming winter.
Lehigh Valley weather
The Old Farmer's Almanac
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