Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
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Tropical Cyclone 18P (Nathan) is now over water, just to the north of the Northern Territory…located approximately 210 NM east-northeast of Darwin, Australia
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 18P
Tropical cyclone 18P (Nathan) remains active and continues to be the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane [on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale]…then weakening as it moves back over land on its way towards Darwin.
Since the last report, TC Nathan has moved from Queensland, Australia west across the Gulf Carpentaria…and is now crossing The Top End of the Northern Territory.
Here's a NASA satellite image of this storm…taken today
Here's a real-time wind profile of TC Nathan – and the current Warruwi radar loop. Here's a NOAA looping satellite image
This tropical cyclone was located approximately 210 NM east-northeast of Darwin, Australia…moving westward at 7 mph.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system has maintained overall convective signature…as it has drifted offshore of the northern territory.
Upper level analysis indicates that TC 18P remains in a favorable environment, with continued radial outflow.
TC Nathan will weaken a little, back into the equivalent of a tropical storm as it moves over land.
This storm will take a turn to the southwest towards the Darwin area. The JTWC estimate has the center of weakening tropical storm Nathan passing within 16 miles of Darwin in two days or so. This of course will bring increasing winds and rains to Darwin, with the chance of interrupting transportation briefly in some areas.
Thereafter, this storm will emerge over the water of the Timor Sea…and is expected re-strengthen.
Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC's warning #26, are 65 knots…with gusts to 80 knots.
Here's computer model track guidance for 18P – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone
According to the Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), here's information on this system –
BOM forecast track for Nathan
Hazards:
Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometers per hour are expected to develop on the coast between Maningrida and Goulburn Island later this morning.
Gales, with gusts up to 120 kilometers per hour are occurring over coastal parts of northern Arnhem Land between Goulburn Island and Milingimbi. Gales may extend further west to the Cobourg Peninsula, and south to Point Stuart later today. Gales may extend west to Cape Hotham and also to Milikapiti Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, across coastal parts of northern Arnhem Land as the cyclone moves westwards. A flood watch is current for the Northern Coastal Rivers.
A storm tide is expected between Maningrida and Milingimbi. Coastal residents between Maningrida and Croker Island are specifically warned of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone center crosses the coast on Tuesday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with damaging waves and dangerous flooding.
Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises that communities currently in shelter should remain until advised by local authorities that the ALL CLEAR has been given. This includes communities of Maningrida to the east of Goulburn Island.
For residents from west of Goulburn Island to Croker Island and Gunbalanya, now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter area. If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should PROCEED IMMEDIATELY to shelter with family, friends, or one of the local emergency shelters. Take your emergency kit with you.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Croker Island to Cape Don and Gunbalanya to Point Stuart, including Jabiru, now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents under Watch from Point Stuart to Cape Hotham and Cape Don to Milikapiti, now is the time to finalize your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
Eastern North Pacific
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.
Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014
Latest NE Pacific Satellite Image
Here's the northeast Pacific's Sea Surface Temperatures
Central North Pacific
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.
Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image
Here's the central Pacific's Sea Surface Temperatures
Western North Pacific
Here's the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 18P (Nathan)
JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
Satellite image of this area
Here's the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific
North Indian Ocean
Here's the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Here's the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean
Here's the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea