school and colleges
maharashtra elections
pollution news
National monsoon mission project to predict monsoon cycles more precisely
This story is from May 21, 2012
Dipannita Das / TNN / Updated: May 21, 2012, 02:30 IST
Two arrested for youth's murder at Bhosari
Pune cop booked for molestation
PUNE: The national monsoon mission project, approved by the Union Cabinet recently, will divulge more reliable and improved forecast of weather and climate. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, is the nodal agency of the project.
The five-year project is expected to deliver quantifiable improvement in forecasting extreme events, such as flood and drought years, active and dry spells of monsoon, flash floods, monsoon depressions. It will also predict sea surface temperature.
Prof B N Goswami, director of national monsoon mission, told TOI that the project uses high resolution coupled ocean atmospheric model, which gives information on both atmosphere and ocean. The goal is to provide improved monsoon forecast.
The project uses high resolution (38 km x 38 km grid area) global coupled ocean-atmosphere model that provides more precise and accurate Indian monsoon predictions. Thus, there is a chance of getting information on how monsoon rainfall will be distributed throughout India.
IITM Pune will coordinate and work on improving prediction skill of active and break spells of monsoon and seasonal mean monsoon prediction. And the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida, will coordinate for medium (up to 10 days) and short (2-3 days) range weather prediction.
Suryachandra A Rao, scientist, IITM, Pune, and project coordinator said the work has already started on an experimental basis. "At present, we are making changes to the coupled model adopted from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), US. With the completion of the project, we will have an Indian model that will provide better forecast,'' he said.
"Until recently, empirical models were used for operational forecast. This is for the first time that for making seasonal and extended range prediction of active or break cycles of monsoon, we are using dynamical coupled ocean atmosphere models in the country. Using coupled models has much more advantages as one can gather more information than empirical model. One can get monsoon prediction with geographical distribution,'' he said.
Citing an example, he said, even though monsoon season lasts for four months (June to September), monsoon rainfall is punctuated by active or break spells with in the season. Under this project, we will be able to make predictions of active or break spells of monsoon. At present, the operational forecast does not give any information on the same.
The national monsoon mission involves research and development and will be a multi-institutional effort, collaborating with national and international partners. Within the ministry of earth sciences, different institutions are actively contributing to the project. In this project, atmospheric and oceanic information for the prediction is gathered from NCMRWF and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, respectively. IMD will do the operational forecasting, he added.
National monsoon mission:
* Forecast extreme events such as flood and drought years
* Forecast active and dry spells of monsoon
* Forecast flash floods and monsoon depressions
* Predict sea surface temperature
* Chance of getting information on how monsoon rainfall will be distributed throughout India
Let's open up more shrines to pilgrims, India proposes to Pakistan
What if all Muslims vanished from India? A play explores
Delhi Air PollutionDelhi TemperatureChennai WeatherBangalore TemperatureCovid vaccination centres in DelhiCoronavirus in DelhiRTPCR test in GurgaonHyderabad RainPollution level in BangaloreDelhi SmogDelhi TemperatureNoida AQIGurgaon AQI todayFire in MumbaiMumbai RainsCovid 19 RT PCR Test in NoidaDelhi AQI todaySrinagar encounter