I've seen many a Black Xday come and go on here before, none of which have turned out to be correct. However, given that one looks rather more likely than at any time in the last few years, I'd like to know what the ground rules are in order to judge such calls retrospectively.
Answers in per cent please.
BBC newsreader points loaded revolver to temples on air?
BBC don't have a Business report that mentions house prices rising?
Joking aside, I think 25 an above is bad. Anything above that gets into black territory. FWIIW, I think it is the DOW that will be cause and not the FTSE. The FTSE will just follow.
So, assuming it is the DOW, then a 400 to 500 plus fall in a single day.
Don't have FTSE data at hand, but it follows the DOW.
5% or more will make the front page.
DOW fell 21% in one week during 2008.
ISEQ in Dublin was down 5.8% today, and I haven't heard that described even as Grey yet.
Update: The DOW fell 7.3% in one day 9th October 2008.
I agree. 5% or more for a black day.
Make sure you sell all of your shares this week.
On 19th and 20th Oct 1987, being Monday and Tuesday, the FTSE fell by a total of 23%. DJIA was similar. We are nearer to the position of the 1930's, where after initial post 1929 rally (rather like now) along came 1931 and the DJIA plummeted and carried on until it was 89% down from its high point, by July 1932.
I think we will see a lot more volatility heading into September and October. It could be near the start of a downward trend, with the ups getting weaker and the lows becoming stronger. There is very little good news around in the USA at present and ours is set to get much worse as the cuts are announced and implemented through the winter. Any semblance of recovery is about to stall. The large companies have been posting profits, but they ae historical left overs of the Brown spend/election bounce. It is going into reverse gear right now.
Its not a "major" index in the global sense. The dog wags the tail. The dog is in the US.
I have now sold all mine. I do have a couple of shorts.
along came 1931 and the DJIA plummeted and carried on until it was 89% down from its high point, by July 1932.
Eeek. If 5% is black, that needs a different colour altogether. I suggest 'very black'.
We will not see ANY 5% falls in the DOW (or the FTSE) short of an attack on Iran.
There is too much to lose for the big institutional players - so we will see plunge protection, high frequency trades, bids made and then withdrawn before being executed and all the other tricks.
That is the difference. Now we are much better at manipulating the market.
Well, you joined in mid-2009 and missed all the fun threads in 2008 and early 2009.
'Twas a black time indeed.
I know someone closely involved in discussions at the Treasury on this. Its going to be a bloodbath. People have no idea what is coming.
House price rises of course and a new season of X-Factor!
I'm no technical analyst, but it doesn't look good does it?! Even a child could tell you where this is probably heading next. IMO only more and big QE/inflation can save the equity markets now.
Yes, probably a couple of pairs of shorts may be the only protection.
20% for a black day. Everything else is just unexciting and somewhat expected.
Well we saw more than 10 of them in 2008/9 with no attacks on Iran.