The Beijing Government attaches a high value to the political stability and economic predictability. Decisions such as the Argentine Government nationalize pension funds in October 2008 are very disturbing for the Chinese authorities. There are elections in many countries; in Argentina in June 2009 and in Mexico in July 2009. Brazil and Colombia have national elections in 2010. The Chinese Government would like to see the results of these elections before increasing their level of commitment with the region. There's that take into account adds Roett, that in political circles there is concern that the curse of natural resources has returned again. I.e., historically Latin America has chosen export raw materials and minerals instead of adding value to their traditional exports or deepening the industrialization process.
Some countries have been better than others. Chile has been successful in adding value to its exports and has directed their gaze to the Asian market. Brazil is obviously a major manufacturing country, but in recent years iron ore and soybeans have had much weight in its exports to China. Given the current economic crisis, it is unlikely that any of the Latin American countries change their model of development. Growth will remain slow. In fact, Morgan Stanley expects Latin American economies contract further and continue then submerged in the mud for quite some time. Many countries did not follow the suggestions that were given in years of reasonable growth, i.e.
to start contra-ciclicas policies. Chile did, and possibly their results will be the best in the region; Brazil will remain firm. But many countries will experience strong contractions. That also means less money for social security networks at a time when jobs are lost and won, at least potentially, in social conflict. Without any doubt, indicates Roett, in Latin America the key player is Brazil. In a recent meeting at the White House between President Obama and President Lula the environment was an important point of the conversation. The Obama administration seems to recognize the need to include Brazil in any new initiatives related to the environment. Given the good relations between Beijing and Brasilia, the triangulizacion of political cooperation between these three countries is not impossible, but rather likely, in the coming years. Definitely cannot be denied, that this participation of china in Latin America is concerned about the United States, it is known that some officials in Washington fear that the growing appetite from China for Latin American natural resources might threaten the supply of oil and other raw materials to the United States. Others fear that the Chinese Communist regime will join Cuba and Venezuela to create problems in the neighbourhood of United States. Even in the case of Cuba, the nature of the bilateral relations is changing, says. Chino-cubano trade has been more than doubled in the past five years, but the current chino-cubanas relationships are not as the early 1960s, which were mainly based on ideology ", according to Chinese President Hu Jintao." All this adds new openings with Venezuela which intend to supply oil according to the last agreement signed with President Hugo Chavez.
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