ARENA releases data from its $100 million funding program for large scale solar, suggesting that utility scale solar projects are not far off "cost parity" with wind projects.
There are a couple of big and exciting things about to happen in Australian energy markets: one is the rollout of battery storage and smart software in households, businesses and networks. Another is the anticipated start of the boom in large-scale solar installations, as envisaged by chief scientist Alan Finkel this week.
That could also mean reducing the difference between solar and wind to around $10/MWh, although wind industry folk will point out the recent pricing at both the Coonooer Bridge wind farm and the Hornsdale projects, indicating costs are coming down with the right structures and wind resource, and competitive bidding.
My gut feel is that differences in $/watt are probably associated with productivity assumptions from the installation contractor rather than any particular "state" issues. A strategic and imaginative approach could deliver a significant advantage in this area.
Love to know how they come to the conclusion of 28 and 25% capacity factors.
Agree, the capacity factor of roof based domestic PV plants is just around 16% in the Sydney area. How can they nearly double that?
Tracking enables higher capacity factors.
And optimal siting with no shading.
Well no mate, I think your misunderstanding, although I didn't elaborate, I was thinking that 28% didn't seem to be enough, especially for tracking arrays.
I'm just north of Sydney near Newcastle, now as I understand capacity factor, it's based on a plants 24/7 365 days production. PV without storage can't get 100% of course, but with storage would on some days, so would be variable. With solar PV I don't think it should be worked out like a coal plant, where it could be much higher, say 75%.
On residential PV, take my 1.5kw Array, although I have more, today It produced 8.6kwhs, that's 5.733 PSH out of max of 10.2kwhs- 6.8PSH,which is 15% less than max. So for today that's 85% capacity factor for generation that works only during the day. Note, I'm not talking theory here.
Worked out over a year at the moment I can't tell you what CP would be with weather and seasonal variations, but I think it would be better than 28% fixed north Array.
Sorry – Jo is right. Rooftop PV operates in the 15-20% range.
Your rooftop array would produce 1.5*24 = 36kWh if it operated at 100% cf. 8.6 is 24% (a good day).
Capacity factor is only related to the PV component (the energy generator) because relating the capacity factor to a battery backup makes no sense.
Capacity factor does go up with using storage for renewables, simply because it can operate (generate) for a longer period of time. Of course that depends on the amount of storage which would determine what the capacity factor would turn out be.
A few reasons why these large scale systems get high capacity factors compared to residential PV.
The capacity factor of domestic PV is based on the DC size of the system (capacity of panels). If you look at the graph in the report, these large-scale systems are getting DC capacity factors of 20-22%. It is only the AC capacity factor that is getting up to 28%. These large scale PV are installing panels with capacity 20-30% larger than their inverters (ie. inverter ratio of 1.2-1.3), which means their AC capacity factor is much higher than their DC capacity factor.
Second reason, as Gary mentions, is that these large scale systems have optimal alignment and tilt angles, no shading issues, and in some cases tracking, which can also boost output greatly.
And finally, obviously the solar resource is better for these systems, particularly those in QLD, relative to the typical Sydney home.
Being someone your readers have completely disagreed with on windfarms being situated to close to homes and lives, this is great news , if simon corbel wants to talk about situating a 20mw solar farm on my property he should come out and see me, already having 10kw system ground mounted l have observed the extra fodder growth that is a result of the shade so would work on another level . Also easily mounted fire suppression in bushfire season and would create a perfect refuge. .
Oh, I failed to mention, the only overheads for rooftop solar are the panels lying on the roof! No poles, no wires, no accounts department, $63/MWH is the cost to the household. Beat that coal, beat that wind, and large scale solar, hydro and gas what's your best offer!
Also, on-site residential and commercial Solar PV competes against retail cost of electricity. Utility Solar PV competes against wholesale cost. Huge advantage for the former.
HOWEVER, it is not going to be distributed Solar PV OR utility scale Solar PV. It is going to be BOTH. Not enough rooftop space in cities to generate all of the electricity needed.
US is ahead of Australia for Utility scale deployment of Solar PV and Wind.
Australia is ahead of US for Residential scale deployment of Solar PV.
Look for cost of Utility scale Solar PV and Wind to drop significantly in Australia, as you now begin to install more. Cost of residential Solar PV in the USA should approach what it is in Australia, as we install more of that.
My bet — NSW has shorter transportation from dockside or factory to installation location. I bet the capital costs everywhere else include higher transportation costs for the solar panels & hardware.
Terrific initiative by ARENA. I look forward to hearing about the successful applicants in due course. In the meantime, I've analysed the ARENA data in the context of my standard LCOE methodology, which is explicitly aimed at international comparisons. I get the average LCOE as AUD 144 per MWh. Details at http://www.sunoba.blogspot.com (post for 9 March 2016).