"Tracking Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management Portfolio – Q4 2016 Update"
"Fisher’s US long portfolio value increased from $56.32B to $57.43B in Q4 2016.Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, and Visa Inc. are the largest five individual stock positions.Fisher has substantial stakes in several ETFs/ETNs and hundreds of very small positions. They together account for more than one-third of the 13F portfolio.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher’s US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management’s regulatory  filed on 01/10/2017. Please visit our  article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and  highlighting the fund’s moves in Q3 2016.This quarter, Fisher’s US long portfolio increased ~2% from $56.32B to $57.43B. The number of holdings increased from 776 to 783. Significantly large positions remained steady at 62. The five largest individual stock positions are Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, and Visa Inc. They together account for ~13% of the overall US long portfolio.To know more about Ken Fisher, check-out his  (most notably in Behavioral Finance),  (several of them were NY Times best sellers) and his father Philip Fisher’s scuttlebutt investment philosophy explained in the book “”.Note: Fisher manages ~35,000 private client accounts and over 150 institutional accounts. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance" which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities is an unknown. We do know that Ken Fisher is very talented and can consistently generate alpha - his Forbes picks are his most visible performance cues and those have outperformed the S&P 500 in the vast majority of years. The latest picks (November 2016) are Manulife Financial (MFC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Westpac Banking (WBK), Astrazeneca (AZN), Cisco Systems (CSCO), BNP Paribas (BNPQY), Deutsche Post (DPSTF), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BKRKY), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and Yelp (YELP).Stake Increases:Anheuser Busch Inbev SA ADR (BUD): BUD was a minutely small stake as of Q2 2015. In Q3 2015, the stake was increased to a ~1% of the portfolio position at prices between $104 and $129. The stock currently trades near the low end of that range at $106.25. Q1 2016 saw a ~9% increase at prices between $111 and $127. Last three quarters also saw marginal further increases. For investors attempting to follow Fisher, BUD is a very good option to consider for further research.UBS AG GRS (UBS): UBS is a 1% of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $17 and $21.50. The original stake was reduced by around one-third in Q4 2013 at prices between $19 and $22. Q1 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was increased by ~37% at prices between $18.50 and $21.50 and the following quarter saw an additional 47% stake increase at prices between $18 and $21.50. In Q4 2014, the pattern reversed as the position was reduced by ~39%. Last eight quarters have seen a combined ~45% increase at prices between $12 and $23. The stock currently trades at $16.74.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL): GOOG was a very small position that was built-up to a substantial 2% position in 2011 at prices between $242 and $301. The stock has more than doubled and currently trades at $805. The position stands at 2.01% of the US long portfolio. This quarter saw a marginal increase.Amazon.com (AMZN): AMZN is the largest individual stock position at 2.62% of the portfolio. The stake is from 2011 and has quadrupled: the cost-basis is ~$200 compared to the current price of $810. Q2 2016 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $586 and $728. There was a very minor increase this quarter.American Express (AXP): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original position was around 9M shares and the current stake is 10.63M shares. Last quarter saw a ~10% reduction at prices between $59 and $66 and the stock is now at ~$76.60. The position is at 1.37% of the portfolio.Apple Inc. (AAPL): AAPL is a top-three 2.32% individual stock position that was built-up in 2012 at prices between $60 and $72. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $59 and $65. Last two quarters have seen marginal increases. The stock currently trades at $120.Bank of America (BAC): BAC is a 1.39% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was established in Q2 2013 and the following quarter at prices between $11.50 and $15. It had since been kept relatively steady. The stock currently trades at $22.05. Last quarter saw a ~17% selling at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. There was a marginal increase this quarter.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): BRK.B is a 1.60% of the US long portfolio position. The last time a substantial stake build-up happened was in Q3 2013 at prices between $112 and $119 when the position was increased by ~55%. The stock currently trades at $160. It is a very long-term position. The last eight quarters have seen minor increases.Chevron Inc. (CVX) and HSBC plc (HSBC): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were increased substantially in Q1 2016. The positions saw minor trimming last quarter and marginal increases this quarter. The 0.74% CVX stake was increased by ~30% in Q1 2016 at prices between $79 and $98 and the stock currently trades well above that range at $116. The 0.90% HSBC position was increased by ~13% at prices between $30.50 and $39.50 and the stock is now at $41.18.Cisco Systems (CSCO): CSCO is another long-term holding that was first purchased in 2009. By 2012, the stake was at over 33M shares. It has since been reduced to 15.6M shares (0.82% of the US long portfolio). The stock currently trades at $29.99.Citigroup Inc. (C) and Daimler AG ADR (DDAIF): These two small positions saw significant reductions last quarter. The C stake saw a roughly one-third selling at prices between $41 and $48 while the DDAIF position saw a ~25% reduction at prices between $57.50 and $72. C currently trades at $58.38 while DDAIF is now at $75.35. C & DDAIF are at 0.86% and 0.58% of the portfolio respectively. This quarter saw minor increases in both stakes.Comcast Corporation (CMCSA): CMCSA is a 1.51% of the US long portfolio position. The original stake was established in 2012 at prices between $24 and $37. There has only been minor activity since. The stock currently trades at $72.56.Walt Disney (DIS): DIS was a very small position in the portfolio till 2012 when over 8M shares were purchased at prices between $39 and $53. There has only been marginal activity since. The stock currently trades at $108. The position stands at 8.74M shares and the stake is at 1.59% of the US long portfolio.Exxon Mobil (XOM): XOM is a very long-term position that has fluctuated over the years. The bulk of the current stake was built in 2011 at prices between $69 and $87. Q3 2015 saw a ~22% increase at prices between $68.50 and $83. Q1 2016 saw an about turn: ~16% reduction at prices between $73 and $84.50. The current position stands at 4.66M shares (0.73% of the US long portfolio) and the stock is at $87.36Home Depot (HD): HD is a fairly large ~2% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. The stock has more than doubled and currently trades at $136. Last two quarters have seen marginal increases.JP Morgan Chase (JPM): JPM is a 2.10% of the US long portfolio position. The bulk of the current stake was established in 2012 when almost 12M shares were purchased at prices between $32 and $46. The stock currently trades at $83.55 and the position is at ~14M shares. There was a marginal increase this quarter.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): JNJ is a large top-three 2.20% of the portfolio position. Around two-thirds of the stake was purchased in 2008 at prices between $55 and $72 and most of the rest in 2011 at prices between $58 and $68. The last significant buying was in Q2 2014 when a 4.7% stake increase happened at prices between $96 and $106. The stock currently trades at $115.L Oreal Co. ADR (LRLCY): LRLCY was a very small position first purchased in 2008. It was built up to a significant ~1% stake in 2012 at prices between $20 and $28. The eight quarters from Q3 2013 to Q2 2015 saw a combined ~20% reduction at prices between $30 and $39. The stock currently trades at $36.20 and the remaining stake is at 0.63% of the US long portfolio. Last four quarters saw marginal increases.Oracle Corporation (ORCL): ORCL is a 0.78% of the US long portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original stake was reduced by around 50% in Q4 2013 at prices between $32 and $38. Since then the activity has been minor. The stock currently trades at $39.10. Q1 2016 saw marginal selling while last three quarters have seen minor increases.Procter & Gamble (PG): PG is another long-term 1.19% of the US long portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original position was increased by just over 75% in 2012 at prices between $60 and $70 and has since been kept relatively steady. Last ten quarters have seen marginal buying. The stock currently trades at $85.21.SAP AG ADR (SAP): SAP is a ~1% of the US long portfolio position that was built-up over several quarters in 2012 at prices between $54 and $80. The stake has wavered since. There were very minor increases in the last seven quarters. The stock currently trades at $89.64.Wal-Mart Stores (WMT):  The 0.62% WMT stake was mostly purchased in Q2 2016 at prices between $63 and $73. There was marginal further buying in the last two quarters. The stock currently trades at $68.42.Coca Cola (KO), General Electric (GE), Intel Corporation (INTC), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Novartis A G ADR (NVS), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Sanofi ADR (SNY), Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), United Technologies (UTX), Visa Inc. (V), and Wells Fargo (WFC): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were increased marginally this quarter. As the activities were very minor, they do not indicate a change in bias.Stake Decreases:Bayer AG ADR (BAYRY): BAYRY is a 0.88% of the US long portfolio stake. The bulk of the current position was purchased in Q2 2014 at prices between $128 and $145. Q2 2015 saw a huge 84% increase at prices between $139 and $155. The stock currently trades well below their purchase price ranges at $108. For investors attempting to follow Fisher, BAYRY is a very good option to consider for further research. Last several quarters have seen only marginal activity.Note: In May 2016, Bayer AG announced a merger proposal with Monsanto (MON) for $122 per share. In September, they agreed on a deal worth $128 per share. MON currently trades at ~$108.CTrip.com International ADR (CTRP): CTRP is a 0.68% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was increased by ~25% in Q3 2015 at prices between $30 and $40. Q4 2015 saw a huge ~120% increase at prices between $31 and $56. The stock currently trades at $44.18. Last three quarters had seen minor further increases while this quarter saw a marginal reduction.Note: The prices quoted above are adjusted for the 2-for-1 stock-split in December 2015.Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lloyds Banking Group plc ADR (LYG): GS saw a huge increase to a 0.56% portfolio stake last quarter at prices between $144 and $172. The stock is now at $236. LYG is a 0.55% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q4 2013 at prices between $4.67 and $5.36. The stake was increased by two-thirds in Q2 2014 at prices between $4.83 and $5.53. Q4 2014 saw a one-third reduction at prices between $4.64 and $5.04 while last quarter saw a similar increase at prices between $2.55 and $3.31. The stock currently trades at $3.31.Siemens AG (SIEGY): SIEGY is a 0.82% portfolio stake increased by ~45% in Q1 2016 at prices between $88 and $106 and stock currently trades at $125. This quarter saw a marginal reduction.Novo-Nordisk A S ADR (NVO): NVO was established in 2011 with the bulk purchased in 2012 at prices between $23 and $34. Last ten quarters have seen a combined ~23% reduction. The stock currently trades at $36.20 and the position is at 0.66% of the US long portfolio.Roche Holding Limited ADR (RHHBY): RHHBY was a minutely small 0.19% of the portfolio position as of Q1 2015. The following quarter saw a whopping ~400% increase at prices between $34 and $38.50. The stock currently trades below that range at $29.47 and the stake is now at 0.74% of the portfolio. Last two quarters have seen marginal reductions.Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): TSM is a very long-term 1.57% of the US long portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake was reduced by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $17 and $20. The nine quarters thru Q2 2016 had seen a combined ~70% increase at prices between $19 and $26. The stock currently trades at $29.62.  Last two quarters saw minor trimming.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA), BASF SE ADR (BASFY), GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (GSK), HDFC Bank (HDB), Infosys Ltd. (INFY), Merck Inc. (MRK), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), and Tata Motors (TTM): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were decreased marginally (less than ~10% change in position size) this quarter. As the activities were very minor, they do not indicate a change in bias.The portfolio also has several large positions in different ETNs and ETFs (FEEU) (FIGY) (FBGX) (FLGE) (LQD) (MBB) (SCPB) - those together accounts for around 13% of the US long portfolio. Fisher also had large stakes in the following businesses per the latest 13G filings: Atlas Air (AAWW) - 4.9%, Heartland Express (HTLD) - 2.7%, Wright Medical (WMGI) - ~5%, and Veeco Instruments (VECO) - 4.5%.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher’s US stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the US long portfolio each are individually listed) in Q4 2016:13G’s during Q1 2016: PMCS - 1/27/2016 13GA - 0, VECO - 1/27/2016 13GA - 1.83M shares - 4.47%. AAWW - 1/27/2016 13GA - 1.22M shares - 4.95%. HPY - 1/27/2016 13GA - 1.23M shares - 3.33%.8/2016: : BIDU, GOOG, MRK, NKE, and FOXA."