"Tracking John Paulsons Paulson & Company Portfolio  Q4 2017 Update"
"John Paulsons 13F portfolio value decreased from $5.57B to $5.12B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are SPDR Gold ETF, Mylan NV, and Shire plc.Paulson increased Horizon Pharmaceuticals while reducing Synergy Pharmaceuticals.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulsons US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulsons regulatory  filed on 02/14/2018. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  for the funds moves during Q3 2017.This quarter, Paulsons 13F portfolio value decreased ~8% from $5.57B to $5.12B. There are 54 13F securities in the portfolio although only 33 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are SPDR Gold ETF, Mylan NV, Shire plc, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and Allergan plc and they add up to ~45% of the portfolio. The largest holding is SPDR Gold ETF at 10.52% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that story, check-out .Stake Disposals:Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA): TEVA was a very small stake established in Q2 2015. It was increased to a fairly large 5.28% position the following quarter at prices between $55 and $72. Q2 2016 saw a ~19% reduction at prices between $48.50 and $57 and that was followed with a ~30% selling in Q1 2017 at prices between $32 and $38. There was another ~40% reduction the following quarter at prices between $27.50 and $33 and that was followed with another two-thirds selling last quarter at prices between $15.50 and $33.50. The remaining 0.77% stake was disposed this quarter at prices between $11.20 and $19.10. The stock is now at $20.90. Paulson realized losses.Realogy Holdings (RLGY): RLGY was a 0.59% of the portfolio position as of last quarter. The original investment was made prior to the October 2012 IPO. It was reduced by two-thirds over the six quarters thru Q2 2016 at prices between $28 and $49. There was a ~16% trimming in Q2 2017 at prices between $28 and $32.50 and that was followed with a 75% reduction last quarter at prices between $32 and $35.  The elimination this quarter was at prices between $26 and $34. The stock currently trades at $26.11.Bank of America (BAC) warrants: The small ~1.5% stake in the A warrants (Jan 2019 expiry, $12.76 strike) was disposed this quarter. An even smaller (less than 0.5% of the portfolio) stake in the more leveraged B warrants (Oct 2018 expiry, $30.79 strike) was kept.New Stakes:Centurylink Inc. (CTL): CTL is a small 0.83% of the portfolio position established this quarter at prices between $13.50 and $20.50 and the stock is currently at $18.93.Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI), Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP), and Twenty First Century Fox (FOX): These are three merger-arbitrage stakes established this quarter. They are all very small positions at less than ~0.65% of the portfolio each. Scripps Networks Interactive is being acquired by Discovery Communications (DISCA), Sucampo Pharmaceuticals by Mallinckrodt plc (MNK), and certain assets of Twenty First Century Fox is being bought by Walt Disney (DIS).Stake Decreases:Mylan Inc. (MYL): MYL is a top three position at 10.27% of the portfolio. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Q1 2013 saw a 25% reduction at prices between $27.50 and $31 and the following quarter saw another one-third reduction at prices between $29 and $32. Q4 2014 saw an about-turn: ~20% increase at prices between $45 and $59 and that was followed with a ~50% increase in Q2 2015 at prices between $58 and $76. Last four quarters have seen a 42% selling at prices between $30.50 and $45. The stock trades currently at $42.14.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): SHPG is the third-largest position at 9.24% of the portfolio. It was established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100. In Q2 2014, the stake was again increased by ~36% at prices between $142 and $236. The following quarter saw a whopping ~170% increase at prices between $232 and $263. In Q2 2015, the pattern reversed: ~15% reduction at prices between $227 and $260. Q2 & Q3 2016 also saw a combined ~40% reduction at prices between $165 and $207. Last five quarters saw another ~36% reduction at prices between $140 and $195. The stock currently trades at $134.Allergan plc (AGN): AGN was a minutely small 0.29% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2014. The following two quarters saw a ~420% increase at prices between $202 and $271. Q2 2015 saw a further ~27% increase at prices between $283 and $313. In Q4 2015 there was an about-turn: ~23% reduction at prices between $253 and $323. Q2 2016 saw another ~26% selling at prices between $202 and $278. Last five quarters have seen a combined ~54% selling at prices between $165 and $255. The stock is now at $164 and the stake is at ~6% of the portfolio.T-Mobile US (TMUS): The 5.55% portfolio stake in TMUS was purchased in Q1 2017 at prices between $56.60 and $65 and increased by ~46% the following quarter at prices between $60 and $68. Last quarter saw a ~14% trimming and that was followed with a similar reduction this quarter. The stock is at $60.06.Dish Network (DISH): DISH is a 3.69% portfolio position established in Q1 2017 at prices between $58 and $64. Last two quarters saw a combined ~36% stake increase at prices between $52 and $66. The stock is currently at $45.69. There was a ~11% trimming this quarter.Vistra Energy (VST) previously TCEH: VST is a 3.58% of the portfolio position established in Q2 2017. It exited bankruptcy in December 2016 and started trading in May 2016 at ~$15 per share. The stock is now at $18.83. There was a ~13% trimming this quarter.Altaba Inc. (AABA) previously Yahoo: The 2.27% AABA stake was established in Q2 2017 at prices between $46 and $56 and increased by ~42% last quarter at prices between $54.50 and $67.50. This quarter saw an about turn: ~55% reduction at prices between $65 and $73. It is now at $73.51.Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): MNK is a 1.62% of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $42 and $47. Q2 & Q3 2014 saw a combined 55% increase at prices between $60 and $90. There was some selling in H1 2015: ~28% reduction at prices between $94 and $130. Q4 2015 saw the pattern reverse: ~31% increase at prices between $53 and $77. Last seven quarters have seen a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $21 and $81. The stock currently trades at $16.80.Note 1: Paulson controls ~3.9% of the business.Note 2: MNK, a July 2013 spinoff from Covidien plc started trading at around $42. Covidien plc in turn was acquired by Medtronic (MDT) in January 2015.Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP): SGYP is now a minutely small position at 0.17% of the portfolio. The original position saw a ~150% increase in Q2 2016 at prices between $2.50 and $4. As of last quarter, the stake was at 1.25% of the portfolio. This quarter saw a ~85% selling at prices between $1.85 and $3.50. The stock is now at $2.03.Stake Increases:Caesars Entertainment (CZR): In October last year, Caesars Entertainment combined with Caesars Acquisition in a merger (bankruptcy court reorg). The terms called for Caesars Acquisition shareholders to receive 1.625 shares of CZR for each share held.  Paulson had ~10% stakes in both. Including the conversion, the position saw a ~53% reduction this quarter. The stake is still fairly large at 4.63% of the portfolio.Time Warner Inc. (TWX): TWX is a 4.59% of the portfolio merger-arbitrage stake purchased in Q4 2016. AT&T (T) reached a deal in October 2016 to acquire Time Warner in a $107.50 half-cash half-stock deal. The stock currently trades at $95.37. There was a ~20% selling last quarter. This quarter saw a ~6% increase.NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): NXPI stake saw a ~200% increase in Q1 2017 to a 1.56% portfolio position at prices between $96 and $104. There was a ~6% further increase in Q2 2017. The position was almost sold out last quarter at prices between $109 and $113. This quarter saw another about turn: huge increase to a 3.31% portfolio stake at prices between $113 and $118. It is now at ~$119.Note: NXPI is a merger-arbitrage stake. It is getting acquired by Qualcomm (QCOM) for $110 per share cash.Horizon Pharmaceuticals (HZNP): The 2.24% HZNP position was purchased in Q2 2017 at prices between $9.65 and $15.75 and increased by ~40% this quarter at prices between $13 and $15. The stock is now at $13.89.Monsanto Company (MON) and Rockwell Collins (COL): These two minutely small (less than 0.5% of the portfolio each) positions as of last quarter saw large increases this quarter. MON position saw a stake doubling to ~1% of the portfolio at prices between $115 and $122. The stock is now at $121. The COL position was increased by ~135% to a 0.69% portfolio stake at prices between $130 and $137 and it is now at $136.Note: Monsanto and Rockwell-Collins are merger-arbitrage stakes. Monsanto is getting acquired by Bayer AG (BAYRY) and Rockwell Collins by United Technologies (UTX).Kept Steady:SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulsons largest position by far at ~19% of the US long portfolio as of Q1 2013. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $83 and $98 and was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 as well at prices between $116 and $155. Q4 2015 and the following quarter saw a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $100 and $122. The stock currently trades at ~$128. The remaining stake is still the largest at 10.52% of the portfolio.Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): VRX position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw another ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. The stock currently trades below those ranges at $18.88 and the stake is at 8.45% of the portfolio.Note: Paulson controls ~6% of Valeant Pharmaceuticals.AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 2.54% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Q4 2015 had seen a ~9% trimming while the following quarter saw a one-third reduction at prices between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $13 and $18. The stock is currently at $10.45.Note: Paulson controls ~3% of AngloGold Ashanti.Novagold (NG): NG is a small 1.69% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling in Q4 2016. The stock is currently at $4.17.Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~7% of the business.International Seaways (INSW): INSW is a spinoff from Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) that started regular-way trading in December 2016 at ~$15 per share. It is now at $16.78. There was ~6% trimming in Q2 2017 at ~$20.Note: Paulson controls ~12% of International Seaways.Endo International plc (ENDP): A very small ENDP stake was increased by almost 200% in Q1 2016 at prices between $28 and $61. The next two quarters saw a combined ~18% reduction at prices between $17 and $43. The stock is now at $6.88 and the stake is at ~1% of the portfolio. There was a ~9% trimming in Q2 2017.Extended Stay America (STAY): STAY is now a very small 0.67% of the portfolio position. The stake came about as a result of the firms IPO in November 2013 (see Note below). STAY currently trades at $19.60 compared to the IPO offering price of $20.  Q4 2015 had seen a ~11% trimming at prices between $16 and $19 and that was followed with another ~12% reduction in Q3 2016 at ~$14. There was a ~25% reduction in Q4 2016 at prices between $13 and $17 and that was followed with a ~30% selling in Q1 2017 at $17.81. The position was reduced by ~90% in Q2 2017 at prices between $15.76 and $19.80. Paulson harvested long-term gains.Note: Extended Stay America filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, 2009 and an investment group consisting of Paulson & Company, Blackstone Group, and Centerbridge Partners bought Extended Stay America out of bankruptcy in October 2010. At the time of the 11/2013 IPO, the firms already made more than three times their investment.Office Depot (ODP): ODP is a very small 0.69% stake. It was doubled in Q2 2016 at prices between $3 and $8. The stock is now at $3.18. Q1 2017 saw a minor ~7% trimming and that was followed with a ~12% reduction in the following quarter. There was another ~20% selling last quarter at prices between $3.95 and $6.20.Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), International Tower Hill Mines (THM), Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Randgold Resources (GOLD), and TIM Participacoes (TSU): These are small (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) stakes kept steady this quarter.Note: Paulson has a ~34% ownership stake in International Tower Hill Mines.Although the relative position sizes are minute, the following 13F stakes are significant as Paulson has sizable ownership: Cobalt International Energy (CIEIQ), Enzymotec Ltd., Synthesis Energy Systems (SES), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ).The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulsons US stock holdings in Q4 2017:Regulatory Filings thru 11/17/2017: 13G/A  9/11  ENZY  2.1M shares  9.2% of business. Form 4  10/26  SYMX  1M shares  conversion of warrants. Form 4  11/14  SGYP  15.3M shares  8.75M shares sold at $2.82."