"Tracking John Paulsons Paulson & Company Portfolio  Q1 2018 Update"
"John Paulsons 13F portfolio value decreased from $5.12B to $4.57B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are SPDR Gold ETF, Mylan NV, and Shire plc.Paulson increased Discovery Communications and Viacom while reducing Vistra Energy and Caesars Entertainment.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulsons 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulsons regulatory  filed on 05/15/2018. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  for the funds moves during Q4 2017.This quarter, Paulsons 13F portfolio value decreased ~11% from $5.12B to $4.57B. There are 51 13F securities in the portfolio although only 36 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are SPDR Gold ETF, Mylan NV, Shire plc, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and Allergan plc and they add up to ~46% of the portfolio. The largest holding is SPDR Gold ETF at ~12% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that story, check-out .Stake Disposals:Extended Stay America (STAY): STAY was a very small 0.67% of the portfolio position as of last quarter. The position was eliminated this quarter at prices between $18.50 and $21. The stake came about as a result of the firms IPO in November 2013 (see Note below) at $20 per share.  Q4 2015 had seen a ~11% trimming at prices between $16 and $19 and that was followed with another ~12% reduction in Q3 2016 at ~$14. There was a ~25% reduction in Q4 2016 at prices between $13 and $17 and that was followed with a ~30% selling in Q1 2017 at $17.81. The position was reduced by ~90% in Q2 2017 at prices between $15.76 and $19.80. Paulson harvested long-term gains.Note: Extended Stay America filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, 2009 and an investment group consisting of Paulson & Company, Blackstone Group, and Centerbridge Partners bought Extended Stay America out of bankruptcy in October 2010. At the time of the 11/2013 IPO, the firms already made more than three times their investment.Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) and Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP): These were very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) merger-arbitrage stakes established last quarter. Scripps Networks Interactive was acquired by Discovery Communications (DISCA) and Sucampo Pharmaceuticals by Mallinckrodt plc (MNK). The acquisitions closed this quarter thereby eliminating the positions.Oasis Petroleum (OAS) and Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP): These two small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were disposed this quarter.New Stakes:Energen Corp. (EGN), XL Group (XL), DST Systems, and Blackhawk Network Holdings (HAWK): These are the new positions this quarter. EGN is a ~1% portfolio stake established at prices between $49 and $63 and the stock currently trades above that range at $68.37. XL Group, DST Systems, and Blackhawk Network Holdings are merger-arbitrage stakes: AXA Group is acquiring XL Group for $57.30 per share cash. SS&C acquired DST Systems for $84 per share cash and the transaction closed last month. Blackhawk Network Holdings is being acquired by Silver Lake and P2 Capital Partners for $45.25 per share cash.Stake Decreases:SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulsons largest position by far at ~19% of the US long portfolio as of Q1 2013. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $83 and $98 and was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 as well at prices between $116 and $155. Q4 2015 and the following quarter saw a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $100 and $122. The stock currently trades at ~$122. The remaining stake is still the largest at ~12% of the portfolio. There was marginal trimming this quarter.Mylan Inc. (MYL): MYL is a top three position at 10.39% of the portfolio. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Q1 2013 saw a 25% reduction at prices between $27.50 and $31 and the following quarter saw another one-third reduction at prices between $29 and $32. Q4 2014 saw an about-turn: ~20% increase at prices between $45 and $59 and that was followed with a ~50% increase in Q2 2015 at prices between $58 and $76. Last five quarters have seen a ~47% selling at prices between $30.50 and $47.50. The stock trades currently at $40.08.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): SHPG is the third-largest position at 9.64% of the portfolio. It was established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100. In Q2 2014, the stake was again increased by ~36% at prices between $142 and $236. The following quarter saw a whopping ~170% increase at prices between $232 and $263. In Q2 2015, the pattern reversed: ~15% reduction at prices between $227 and $260. Q2 & Q3 2016 also saw a combined ~40% reduction at prices between $165 and $207. Last six quarters saw another ~38% reduction at prices between $127 and $194. The stock currently trades at ~$172.T-Mobile US (TMUS): The ~5% portfolio stake in TMUS was purchased in Q1 2017 at prices between $56.60 and $65 and increased by ~46% the following quarter at prices between $60 and $68. Last three quarters have seen a combined ~37% selling at prices between $55 and $65.50. The stock is now at $56.68.NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): NXPI stake saw a ~200% increase in Q1 2017 to a 1.56% portfolio position at prices between $96 and $104. There was a ~6% further increase in the following quarter. The position was almost sold out in Q3 2017 at prices between $109 and $113. Last quarter saw another about turn: huge increase to a 3.31% portfolio stake at prices between $113 and $118. There was a ~16% selling this quarter at prices between $115 and $126. The stock currently trades at ~$107.Note: NXPI is a merger-arbitrage stake. It is getting acquired by Qualcomm (QCOM) for $127.50 per share cash.Horizon Pharmaceuticals (HZNP): The 2.38% HZNP position was purchased in Q2 2017 at prices between $9.65 and $15.75 and increased by ~40% last quarter at prices between $13 and $15. The stock is now at $15.07. There was a ~3% trimming this quarter.TIM Participacoes (TSU): TSU is a 2.37% portfolio stake first purchased in Q2 2014 at prices between $24 and $30. The position had remained relatively steady since. This quarter saw a ~10% selling at prices between $19.50 and $22.50. The stock is currently trading at $18.14.Vistra Energy (VST) previously TCEH: VST is a 1.68% of the portfolio position established in Q2 2017 at prices between $15 and $20. Vistra exited bankruptcy and started trading in October 2016 at ~$16 per share. There was a ~13% trimming last quarter and that was followed with a two-thirds reduction this quarter at prices between $17.50 and $21. The stock is now at $22.88.Caesars Entertainment (CZR): In October last year, Caesars Entertainment combined with Caesars Acquisition in a merger (bankruptcy court reorg). The terms called for Caesars Acquisition shareholders to receive 1.625 shares of CZR for each share held.  Paulson had ~10% stakes in both. Including the conversion, the position saw a ~53% reduction last quarter. This quarter saw another ~73% selling at prices between $11 and $14.50. The stock currently trades at $13.15.Twenty First Century Fox (FOX): The FOX position was almost sold out this quarter at prices between $34 and $38.50. It was purchased last quarter at prices between $24.50 and $34.75 and the stock is now at $37.28.Stake Increases:Time Warner Inc. (TWX): TWX is a 5.38% of the portfolio merger-arbitrage stake purchased in Q4 2016. AT&T (T) reached a deal in October 2016 to acquire Time Warner in a $107.50 half-cash half-stock deal. The stock currently trades at $92.88. There was a ~20% selling in Q3 2017 while last quarter saw a ~6% increase. This quarter also saw a marginal increase.Dish Network (DISH): DISH is a 4.12% portfolio position established in Q1 2017 at prices between $58 and $64. Q2 & Q3 2017 saw a combined ~36% stake increase at prices between $52 and $66. The stock is currently below the low end of those ranges at $32.65. There was a ~11% trimming last quarter while this quarter there was a ~19% stake increase. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, DISH is a good option to consider for further research.Altaba Inc. (AABA) previously Yahoo: The 2.77% AABA stake was established in Q2 2017 at prices between $46 and $56 and increased by ~42% the following quarter at prices between $54.50 and $67.50. Last quarter saw an about turn: ~55% reduction at prices between $65 and $73. It is now at $76.50. There was a minor ~3% stake increase this quarter.Discovery Communications (DISCA) and Viacom (VIAB): These two positons saw large increases this quarter. The DISCA stake saw a 320% increase to a 1.80% portfolio position at prices between $21.50 and $26.50. It is now at $23.02. The VIAB position saw a ~160% increase to a 1.75% portfolio stake at prices between $29 and $34 and it is currently below that range at $28.16.Monsanto Company (MON) and Rockwell Collins (COL): These two positions were increased substantially over the last two quarters. MON position had seen a stake doubling last quarter at prices between $115 and $122. There was a ~7% further increase this quarter and the stake is at 1.15% of the portfolio. The stock is now at ~$125. The COL position was increased by ~135% last quarter at prices between $130 and $137 and that was followed with a ~63% increase this quarter at prices between $133 and $139. It is now at ~$136 and the stake is at 1.26% of the portfolio.Note: Monsanto and Rockwell-Collins are merger-arbitrage stakes. Monsanto is getting acquired by Bayer AG (BAYRY) and Rockwell Collins by United Technologies (UTX).Endo International plc (ENDP): A very small ENDP stake was increased by almost 200% in Q1 2016 at prices between $28 and $61. The next two quarters saw a combined ~18% reduction at prices between $17 and $43. The stock is now at $6.20 and the stake is at 1.19% of the portfolio. There was a ~28% increase this quarter at prices between $5.50 and $9.International Tower Hill Mines (THM), Newmark Group (NMRK), and Aetna Inc. (AET): These very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes saw substantial increases this quarter.Note: Paulson has a ~32% ownership stake in International Tower Hill Mines.Kept Steady:Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): VRX position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw another ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. The stock currently trades near the low end of those ranges at $22.03 and the stake is at 7.25% of the portfolio.Note: Paulson controls ~6% of Valeant Pharmaceuticals.Allergan plc (AGN): AGN was a minutely small 0.29% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2014. The following two quarters saw a ~420% increase at prices between $202 and $271. Q2 2015 saw a further ~27% increase at prices between $283 and $313. In Q4 2015 there was an about-turn: ~23% reduction at prices between $253 and $323. Q2 2016 saw another ~26% selling at prices between $202 and $278. The five quarters thru Q4 2017 had seen a combined ~54% selling at prices between $165 and $255. The stock is now at ~$160 and the stake is at ~7% of the portfolio.AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 2.65% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Q4 2015 had seen a ~9% trimming while the following quarter saw a one-third reduction at prices between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $13 and $18. The stock is currently at $8.31.Note: Paulson controls ~3% of AngloGold Ashanti.Novagold (NG): NG is a small 1.69% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling in Q4 2016. The stock is currently at $4.86.Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~7% of the business.International Seaways (INSW): INSW is a spinoff from Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) that started regular-way trading in December 2016 at ~$15 per share. It is now at $18.76. There was ~6% trimming in Q2 2017 at ~$20.Note: Paulson controls ~12% of International Seaways.Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): MNK is a 1.16% of the 13F portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $42 and $47. Q2 & Q3 2014 saw a combined 55% increase at prices between $60 and $90. There was selling in H1 2015: ~28% reduction at prices between $94 and $130. Q4 2015 saw the pattern reverse: ~31% increase at prices between $53 and $77. The seven quarters thru Q4 2017 had seen a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $21 and $81. The stock currently trades at $16.07.Note 1: Paulson controls ~3.9% of the business.Note 2: MNK, a July 2013 spinoff from Covidien plc started trading at around $42. Covidien plc in turn was acquired by Medtronic (MDT) in January 2015.Centurylink Inc. (CTL): CTL is a small 0.72% of the portfolio position established last quarter at prices between $13.50 and $20.50 and the stock is currently at $19.25.Office Depot (ODP): ODP is a very small 0.47% stake. It was doubled in Q2 2016 at prices between $3 and $8. The stock is now at $2.47. Q1 2017 saw a minor ~7% trimming and that was followed with a ~12% reduction in the following quarter. There was another ~20% selling in Q3 2017 at prices between $3.95 and $6.20.Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), and Randgold Resources (GOLD): These are small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes kept steady this quarter.Although the relative position sizes are minute, the following 13F stakes are significant as Paulson has sizable ownership: Synthesis Energy Systems (SES), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ).The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulsons US stock holdings in Q1 2018:Regulatory Filings thru 2/18/2018: 13G/As  2/14  AKRX  0, CZR  18.75M shares  2.66% of business, SES  1.38M shares  11.4% of business, TMQ  14.3M shares  13.45% of business, MNK  3.67M shares  3.87% of business, CIEIQ  2.05M shares  6.84% of business, NG  21.99M shares  6.82% of business, Misc Form 4 2/5 on TMQ, 13G/A  12/12  SGYP  4.4M shares  1.78% of business, Form 4  12/1  OSG  10.2M shares  minor disposal.2/21/2018  reader asked whether he owns Fannie/Freddie  my reply: On Fannie/Freddie, Paulson has not disclosed what he owns and how much. In June 2017, a Bloomberg article () said he supports the Moelis recapitalization plan. That article also referenced an interview () which mentioned he has a huge position but no specifics."