"Tracking David Einhorn’s Portfolio – Q4 2020 Update"
"David Einhorn's 13F stock portfolio value increased from $1.22B to $1.66B this quarter.Greenlight increased Atlas Air Worldwide, Teck Resources, and Resideo Technologies while reducing AerCap Holdings, Chemours, and NCR Corp during the quarter.The largest three positions are at ~59% of the portfolio. As of Q4 2020, the overall portfolio is 134% long and 70% short compared to 138% long and 80% short as of Q3 2020.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Einhorn’s regulatory  filed on 2/16/2021. Please visit our  series for an idea on his investment philosophy and our  for the fund’s moves during Q3 2020.Greenlight Capital’s 13F portfolio value stood at $1.66B this quarter. It is up ~36% compared to $1.22B as of last quarter. Einhorn’s Q4 2020 letter reported that the fund returned 5.2% for 2020. This is compared to 18.4% for the S&P 500 Index. In addition to partner stakes, the fund also invests the float of Greenlight Capital RE (GLRE). To learn about David Einhorn and the perils of shorting, check-out his “”.Note: Greenlight maintains a hefty short book which includes a widely known short stake in Tesla (TSLA). It was their largest loser in 2020. Their Q3 2020 letter disclosed establishing a new bubble basket comprising of second-tier tech businesses along with some recent IPOs.New Stakes:Danimer Scientific (DNMR) and FuboTV (FUBO): The 2.44% of the portfolio DNMR stake came about following the ~$700M EV De-SPAC transaction with Live Oak Acquisition that closed in December. Greenlight’s stake goes back to earlier funding rounds done a year ago. The stock had a stunning run following the close and briefly traded at ~$64. It currently trades at $36.84. This is compared to the May 2020 IPO pricing of $10 for Live Oak’s Units. FUBO had an IPO in October. Shares started trading at ~$12 and currently goes for $21.06. Greenlight’s stake goes back to earlier funding rounds and their cost-basis is ~$5 per share.Concentrix (CNXC) and Consol Energy (CEIX): CNXC is a spinoff from SYNNEX Corporation that started trading in December. Terms called from SYNNEX shareholders to get one share of CNXC for each share held. Greenlight had a position in SYNNEX for which they received these shares. The stock started trading at ~$80 and currently goes for ~$143. CEIX is a 1.74% of the portfolio position that came about as a result of the merger with Consol Coal Resources that closed in December. Terms called for 0.73 shares of Consol Energy for each share of Consol Coal held. Greenlight had a position in Consol Coal for which they received these shares. CEIX currently trades at $9.31.Note: Greenlight has a ~12% ownership stake in Consol Energy.ADT Inc. (ADT), Clover Health (CLOV) previously Social Capital (IPOC), Echostar Corp (SATS), Sonos Inc. (SONO), Aequi Acquisition (ARBG) Units, and New Providence Acquisition (NPA): These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) new stakes established this quarter.Note: Clover Health was a SPAC that merged with Social Capital in a $3.7B EV deal in January. New Providence Acquisition is a SPAC that is merging with AST Space Mobile in a $1.4B EV deal announced in December. Aequi Acquisition is a pre-deal SPAC that had a ~$230M IPO in November.Stake Disposals:Intel Corp (INTC), and Ingredion Inc. (INGR): These two small (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) positions established last quarter was disposed this quarter. INTC was a 1.27% of the portfolio position established at prices between $47.50 and $61 and it is now at $64.50. The disposal this quarter was at prices between ~$44 and ~$55. The ~1% INGR stake was purchased at prices between ~$75 and ~$89 and it currently trades at $91.78. The elimination this quarter was at prices between ~$69 and ~$82.Consol Coal Resources LP (CCR): CCR was a 1.49% portfolio stake. The position goes back to its spinoff in 2015. Greenlight had controlled ~35% of CCR. The position was eliminated as the merger of Consol Coal with Consol Energy closed in December.Amarin Corp plc (AMRN), CryoLife Inc. (CRY), Graham Holdings (GHC), Gulfport Energy (GPOR), Kennedy-Wilson (KW), PVH Corp (PVH), and Vapotherm Inc. (VAPO): These minutely small (less than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were disposed this quarter.Stake Increases:Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW): AAWW is a large top five 5.67% of the portfolio stake established in Q2 2020 at an average price of $36.28 per share. The stock currently trades well above that range at $58.63. This quarter saw a ~15% stake increase at prices between $51.28 and $68.20.Note: Greenlight controls 6.3% of the business. The buy-thesis is that there is a shortage of airfreight capacity resulting in a strong tailwind: long-haul international passenger traffic went down 90% YoY in Q2 2020. Also, the surge in e-commerce should help growth (DHL & Amazon contracts).Resideo Technologies (REZI): The 3.32% REZI stake was established in Q2 2020 at prices between $3.95 and $12.50. The stock has more than doubled and currently goes for $28.32. Last two quarters have seen a one-third increase at prices between ~$10 and ~$22.50.Teck Resources (TECK), : TECK is a 3.40% of the portfolio position purchased in Q2 2020 at prices between $7 and $12.25 and the stock currently trades at $19.13. There was a ~40% stake increase this quarter at prices between ~$12.25 and ~$18.85.Note: the buy thesis is on the idea that its business should benefit from base metal price increases they foresee.CNX Resources (CNX): CNX is a ~2% stake purchased in Q3 2014 and built up over the next several quarters. The three quarters thru Q4 2016 had seen a ~50% combined reduction at prices between $8 and $19. The pattern reversed in Q1 2017: ~50% increase at prices between $12 and $16.50. The four quarters thru Q4 2018 had seen a ~80% selling at prices between $11 and $18. Q1 2019 saw the pattern reverse again: two-thirds increase at prices between $9.75 and $13.50. Q1 2020 saw another ~25% stake increase at prices between $5 and $9 while next quarter there was a ~60% selling at prices between $5.50 and $12.95. The stock currently trades at $15.36. Last quarter saw a ~6% trimming while this quarter there was a ~14% stake increase.Note: The prices quoted above are adjusted for the spinoff of Consol Energy (CEIX) in November 2017.Dillard’s Inc. (DDS): The small 0.87% DDS stake saw a ~15% increase this quarter. DDS is a frequently traded stock in the portfolio.Stake Decreases:AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER): AER is a large (top three) 6.37% position. It was established in Q2 2014 at prices between $39 and $48. Q4 2014 thru Q3 2015 saw a combined ~270% increase at prices between $36.50 and $48.50. First three quarters of 2016 had also seen another ~70% increase at prices between $25.50 and $42. The four quarters thru Q3 2018 saw the stake reduced by ~70% at prices between $49 and $57.50. Last two quarters have seen another one-third selling at prices between ~$23 and ~$46. The stock currently trades at $59.33.Change Healthcare (CHNG): CHNG is large (top five) 5.43% of the portfolio position purchased in Q1 2020 at a cost-basis of $11.40. The stock currently trades at $22.15. Last two quarters saw minor trimming.Note: the thesis is on the idea that 9x estimated FCF valuation is compelling for a company that can be termed “backbone of healthcare internet”.SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): The 3.95% GLD stake was built last quarter at prices between $167 and $194. It currently trades at ~$160.Chemours (CC): CC is a 3.87% of the portfolio position established in Q2 2019 at a cost-basis of $23.18. Next quarter saw a ~75% stake increase at prices between $12 and $23. The stock is currently at $28.21. Last four quarters have seen a ~62% selling at prices between $7 and ~$28.Note: Greenlight had a very successful (4x returns) previous roundtrip with Chemours in the two-year period that ended in Q1 2018.NCR Corporation (NCR): NCR is a 2.32% of the portfolio position established last quarter at an average-cost of ~$18.90. The stock is now at $36.87. There was a ~25% selling this quarter at prices between $19.60 and $37.60.Note: Green Light’s 3rd quarter commentary had the following regarding the position – NCR’s shift to recurring SaaS revenue model should result in strong profits going forward.Jack in the Box (JACK): JACK is a 0.68% position purchased in Q2 2020 at prices between $32 and $73 and it currently goes for ~$110. There was a ~40% selling this quarter at prices between ~$80 and ~$95.Crown Holdings (CCK), Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT), and SYNNEX Corporation (SNX): These small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were reduced this quarter.Kept Steady:Green Brick Partners (GRBK): GRBK is currently the largest position at one-third of the 13F portfolio. The stake was acquired as a result of BioFuel Energy’s JGBL Builder Finance acquisition and rename transaction. The deal closed (October 2014) with Greenlight owning 49% of the business. David Einhorn was appointed Chairman of the Board following the transaction.Note 1: Regulatory filings since the quarter ended show them owning 17.43M shares (34.4% of the business) of Green Brick Partners. This is compared to 24.12M shares in the 13F report. Around 7.3M shares were sold at ~$20.50.Note 2: The 3rd quarter 2020 commentary said that GRBK was the star of the quarter as the price went up from $11.85 to $16.10. They still believed the stock was very undervalued. The stock currently trades at $21.87.Brighthouse Financial (BHF): BHF is a large (top three) stake at ~8% of the portfolio. The position was established in Q3 2017 and increased by ~60% in the following quarter at an overall cost-basis of $57.92. The stock is currently well below that at $42.78. There was a ~70% selling in Q4 2018 at prices between $29 and $46.50.Note 1: Greenlight commented on this position on their Q2 2020 letter: The valuation is very cheap and there is a large buyback in place that should allow them to retire ~23% of the shares in the next eighteen months.Note 2: BHF is a spinoff of MetLife’s (MET) U.S. Retail business (annuities and life insurance) that started trading in July 2017.Vaneck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): GDX is a 2.10% of the portfolio position purchased in Q2 2020 at prices between $23 and $37 and the stock currently trades at $32.86. There was a ~50% selling last quarter at prices between ~$36 and ~$44.50.Twitter Inc. (TWTR): The 1.59% TWTR stake was purchased at prices between $31 and $45 and the stock is now at $62.94.Neubase Therapeutics (NBSE): NBSE is a small 0.85% of the portfolio position established in Q3 2019 at an average cost of $3.96. Q2 2020 saw a ~25% stake increase at prices between $6.70 and $11.51. The stock currently trades at $7.14. Their Q4 2020 commentary discussed this position. They think the risk-reward is asymmetrical. The stock was at around the same price at the time.Note: Greenlight controls ~8.7% of NBSE.APi Group (APG), AMERCO (UHAL), Panacea Acquisition (PANA) stock and warrants, MediciNova (MNOV), Reinvent Technology Partners (RTP) Units, and Tesla (TSLA) Puts: These are very small (less than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) stakes kept steady this quarter.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Greenlight’s 13F stock holdings in Q4 2020:Source: John Vincent. Data constructed from Greenlight Capital’s 13F filings for Q3 and Q4 2020.Info from Q3 2020 Letter – 10/27/2020  – Performance – 5.9% in Q3 2020 vs -8.9% for S&P. ~12% annualized since 1996 inception (not in letter but thru Q4 2019 it was 12.6% annualized), Commentary – Raised tail-risk related to violence/civil war probability and related to the political center collapsing. Money printing ($3.3T so far YTD which is 22% of all USD in existence at EOY 2019) – Inflation risk – gold rising - GRBK, BHF, CNX, CC, Buzzi Unicem, etc. have exposure to rising prices. TECH BUBBLE – premature to call in 2016 but now more bubbly than 2000. Thinks 9/2 was the top and it has already popped – investor sentiment has shifted from greed to complacency. SHIFTED BUBBLE BASKET – new bubble basket with 2nd tier businesses and recent IPOs.  GRBK – star of the quarter – advanced from 11.85 to 16.10 – still believes shares are deeply undervalued at 9x estimates. NEW POSITIONS: SNX @ 126.29 – IT hardware distributor – spinning off BPO business – this should add value as the original business is lowly valued while the spinoff should rerate. Ams AG (Swiss) @ CHF 16.71 – structured light 3D sensing – Osram acquisition should be a tailwind but the stock fell. NCR @ 18.89 – ATM sales and service – 2018 new management – converting to recurring SaaS from perpetual licensing – 50% drop due to customer deferrals of purchases earlier this year.  EXITS: Nothing significant . Exposure - 138% long and 80% short , Largest Long Positions – AerCap, Atlas Air Worldwide, Brighthouse Financial, Change Healthcare, and Green Brick Partners.Regulatory filings thru 11/18/2020 – None."