"Tracking David Einhorn’s Portfolio – Q4 2015 Update"
"David Einhorn's US long portfolio decreased from $6.03B to $5.47B this quarter.Greenlight's long/short ratio is at 90% long and 76% short compared to 91% long and 66% short last quarter.Greenlight substantially increased Time Warner and Michael Kors while decreasing Apple and Chicago Bridge & Iron.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital US long stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Einhorn’s regulatory  filed on 02/16/2016. Please visit our  series for an idea on his investment philosophy and our  highlighting the fund’s moves during Q3 2015.Greenlight Capital’s US long portfolio stood at $5.47B this quarter. It is down 9.35% compared to $6.03B as of last quarter. The long/short ratio shifted to the short side this quarter: 90% long and 76% short compared to 91% long and 66% short as of Q3 2015 - net exposure at 14% compared to 25% last quarter. The top five holdings represent 40.76% of the US long portfolio. The number of 13F stakes increased from 39 to 48 as the firm added several new stakes. Einhorn’s Q4 2015 letter reported that the fund lost 3.8% in the quarter and 20.2% for 2015. Since May 1996 inception the fund is up 16.5% annualized net-of-fees and expenses.To learn about David Einhorn and the perils of shorting, check-out his “”.New Stakes:DSW Inc. (DSW): DSW is a small 1.53% of the portfolio position established this quarter at prices between $21.62 and $26.34. The stock currently trades at $24.93.Macys Inc. (M): Macys is a fairly large 4.31% of the 13F portfolio stake purchased this quarter at a cost-basis of $45.69. The stock currently trades below that range at $41.10.Note: Greenlight’s Q4 2015 letter discusses this position. Basically, the firm believes tremendous value can be unlocked by separating the real estate assets in an REIT structure.Mylan NV (MYL): MYL is a 2.86% of the portfolio position established this quarter at a cost-basis of $45.32. The buy thesis projects an earnings expectation of around $7 in 2018. The stock is currently at $46.27.Allergan plc (AGN), Cigna Corporation (CI), EMC Corporation (EMC), Humana Inc. (HUM), and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK):  These are merger-arbitrage stakes established this quarter. It is rare for the firm to dip into such situations. This time, they found several opportunities in large cap mergers where the spreads are decent and there is limited downside risk if the deals break.American Capital Agency (AGNC), Baxter International (BAX), Chemours Co. (CC), Match Group Inc. (MTCH), TerraForm Power (TERP), & Yelp Inc. (YELP):  These are very small (less than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) stakes established this quarter.Note: IAC Interactive owned Match Group had an IPO in November 2015. Einhorn has a position in IAC Interactive as well.Stake Disposals:Applied Materials (AMAT): AMAT was a small 1.22% stake purchased in Q2 2015 at a cost-basis of $20.31. Last quarter saw a ~38% reduction and that was followed with the elimination this quarter at an exit price average of $18.21. Overall, the position realized short-term losses. The stock currently trades at $17.14. Risk of pending cyclical downturn was the primary reason for the exit.Bank of New York Mellon (BK): BK was a 2.60% stake as of last quarter. It was established in Q1 2015 and the following quarter saw a more than 10x increase at prices between $40 and $44. The elimination this quarter happened at prices between $39 and $44. Overall, the position realized a modest gain. The stock currently trades at $34.91.Micron Technology (MU): MU had the dubious distinction of going from the biggest winner for 2014 to the largest loser in 2015. It was first purchased in Q4 2013. The average purchase was at $19.93 and exit at $22.14. Overall, the position had an IRR of ~14%. The stock currently trades at $11.43.Kapstone Paper & Packaging (KS), Santander Consumer USA Holdings (SC), and Vivint Solar (VSLR): These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes that were eliminated this quarter.Stake Increases:IAC Interactive (IAC): IAC was a minutely small 0.30% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2013. In Q2 2013, the stake was substantially increased at prices between $43.50 and $51.50. The position has wavered since. Q2 2015 saw a ~37% reduction at prices between $67 and $81 and last quarter also saw a minor ~6% trimming. The pattern reversed this quarter: two-thirds increase at prices between $59 and $72. The stock currently trades at $43.92 and the stake is at 2.75% of the US long portfolio.Michael Kors Holdings (KORS): KORS is a fairly large (top five) 6.57% of the US long portfolio position established in Q2 2015 at prices between $42 and $66 and almost doubled last quarter at prices between $38.06 and $45.37. This quarter saw another 27% increase at prices between $38.53 and $43.89. The stock currently trades at $52.49. For investors attempting to follow Einhorn, KORS is a good option to consider for further research.Oil States International (OIS): OIS was a fairly large stake established in Q1 2013 at an average purchase price of $77.16. In Q4 2014, the position was almost eliminated at prices between $42.42 and $61.90. This quarter saw a huge ~235% increase at prices between $25 and $33. The stock currently trades at $24.82. The stake is still very small at 0.44%.Note: The performance implied by the quoted prices above understates the actual performance due to the effect of the spin-off of Civeo (CVEO) from OIS. The spin-off terms called for OIS shareholders to receive two shares of CVEO for every share of OIS held.Time Warner Inc. (TWX): TWX is a large (top three) 7.62% of the US long portfolio stake. It was established in Q4 2014 at a cost-basis of $72.72. This quarter saw a ~69% increase at prices between $63.41 and $77.30. The stock currently trades at $64.69. For investors attempting to follow Greenlight, TWX is a good option to consider for further research.Dillard’s (DDS), Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) and Twenty First Century Fox (FOXA): These small stakes (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) saw significant buying this quarter. The 2.10% DDS position saw a ~40% increase at prices between $65.87 and $93.77 and the stock is now at $73.35.  GRMN saw a one-third increase at prices between $32 and $38 and the stake is still very small at 0.57%. FOXA is a 2.15% stake that saw a ~35% increase this quarter at prices between $27 and $31. The stock is now at $26.47.Stake Decreases:Aecom Technology (ACM): ACM is a 1.78% stake first purchased in Q3 2014 at prices between $31.66 and $38.13 and more than doubled the following quarter at prices between $28.12 and $33.91. This quarter saw a 50% reduction at prices between $27.31 and $32.09. The stock currently trades at $26.07.AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER): AER is a fairly large (top five) 5.81% position established in Q2 2014 at prices between $38.91 and $48.14. It was increased by ~68% in Q4 2014 at prices between $36.68 and $45.22 and another ~50% the following quarter at prices between $37.84 and $45.94. Last quarter also saw another ~50% increase at prices between $37.71 and $48.49. The stock currently trades at $30.97. This quarter saw a ~12% trimming. For investors attempting to follow Einhorn, AER is a good option to consider for further research.Apple Inc. (AAPL): AAPL is Einhorn’s largest position at 12.10% of the US long portfolio. The stake was first purchased in the low-40s price-range in 2010. It has seen several profitable trades over the years. The six quarters thru Q2 2015 had seen a combined ~55% reduction at prices between $72 and $133. Last quarter, the pattern reversed: ~59% increase at prices between $103 and $132. This quarter saw a ~47% reduction at prices between $105 and $123. The stock currently trades at $98.12.Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI): CBI is a 2.46% of the US long portfolio position established in Q4 2014 at prices between $37.78 and $57.85 and increased by ~130% the following quarter at prices between $34.51 and $49.48. Last quarter saw a ~11% further increase at prices between $37.24 and $53.26. This quarter saw an about-turn: ~54% reduction at prices between $37.58 and $45.48. The stock currently trades at $33.74.General Motors (GM): GM is Greenlight’s second-largest position at 8.66% of the portfolio. The original stake was increased by ~55% in Q2 2015 at prices between $33.23 and $37.50 and another ~11% last quarter at prices between $27.28 and $33.23. The stock currently trades at $29.26. This quarter saw a ~15% trimming. For investors attempting to follow Einhorn, GM is a good option to consider for further research.Note: GM has seen a previous roundtrip: A huge 9.55% stake was disposed of in Q1 2014 at an average exit price of $35.76 compared to an average entry price of $23.87.ON Semiconductor (ON): ON position was established in Q3 2014 at prices between $8.34 and $9.91 and increased by ~18% the following quarter at prices between $6.94 and $10.22. This quarter saw a ~82% reduction at prices between $9.29 and $11.60. The stock currently trades at $7.90 and the stake is now very small at 0.56%.Sunedison Semiconductor (SEMI): SEMI is a minutely small 0.07% of the US long portfolio stake. It was established in Q1 2015 at prices between $15.19 and $27.14 and increased by 37% the following quarter at prices between $17.27 and $26.46. Last quarter saw a ~49% reduction at prices between $10 and $18.14. This quarter, the remaining stake was almost eliminated at prices between $7.61 and $11.59. The stock currently trades at $3.68.Take-Two Interactive (TTWO): TTWO was first purchased in Q4 2013 at prices between $18.81 and $22.38. The position was decreased by ~11% in Q2 2015 at prices between $23.70 and $28.62 and another 25% this quarter at prices between $28.54 and $36.49. The stock currently trades at $34.35. The stake is at ~2% of the 13F portfolio.Liberty Global LiLAC (LILA) (LILAK) and Scientific Games Corp. (SGMS): These are minutely small stakes (less than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) that saw further reductions this quarter.Kept Steady:Avangrid Inc. (AGR) previously UIL Holdings (UIL): AGR is a medium-sized 3.69% of the portfolio stake. It was established in Q1 2015 at prices between $31.50 and $41.50 and increased by ~92% the following quarter at prices between $35.32 and $40.92. The stock currently trades at $41.31. Greenlight’s overall cost-basis is at $39.07. For investors attempting to follow Greenlight, AGR is a good option to consider for further research.Note: UIL merged with Iberdrola USA to form the new entity Avangrid. UIL shareholders got $10.50 per share cash and one share of AGR for each UIL share held. The prices quoted above are adjusted for this.Consol Energy (CNX): CNX is a fairly large 4.28% stake (top-five) purchased in Q3 2014 at prices between $36.53 and $46.07.  In Q4 2014, the position was increased by over 170% at prices between $32.13 and $41.61 and the following quarter saw a further ~55% increase at prices between $26.56 and $34.34. Q2 2015 had also seen a ~11% increase at prices between $21.74 and $33.34 and that was followed by another ~30% increase last quarter at prices between $9.41 and $21.79. The stock currently trades at $8.87. For investors attempting to follow Einhorn, CNX is a good option to consider for further research.Note 1: CNX completed an IPO for its coal business as CNX Coal Resources (CNXC) in July 2015.Note 2: Regulatory Form 4 filings between 11/3/2015 & 11/12/2015 shows the net long exposure to CNX was increased by around one-third through the purchase of total return swaps (Jan 2017 expiry).Green Brick Partners (GRBK): The 3.18% of the US long portfolio GRBK stake was acquired as a result of BioFuel Energy’s JGBL Builder Finance acquisition and rename transaction. The deal closed with Greenlight owning 49% of the business. David Einhorn was appointed Chairman of the Board following the transaction.Liberty Global Class A & Class C (LBTYA) (LBTYK): Liberty Global position accounts for 3.23% of the US long portfolio. Einhorn had a position in Virgin Media (VMED) from Q2 2012 onwards and the Liberty Global position was established as a result of the acquisition of VMED by Liberty Global.Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (GDX): GDX stake is currently at 2.14%. It is a very long-term position and has wavered over the years. Last significant activity was a ~35% increase in Q4 2014 at prices between $16.59 and $21.94. The stock currently trades at $17.82.Note: Einhorn also has a large holding (top-five) in physical gold.Sunedison Inc. (SUNE) & Notes: The very small 0.23% of the US long portfolio position in SUNE established in Q4 2013 was increased to a fairly large 3.34% position in Q1 2014 at an average entry price of $15.55. In Q2 2014, the stake was increased by another 79% at prices between $16.74 and $22.87. Q1 2015 saw a further ~18% increase at prices between $14.30 and $22.86. Last quarter saw a ~25% reduction at prices between $6.66 and $31.84. The stock currently trades at $1.66. Greenlight controls ~5.9% of the business. The 13F report this quarter also shows a very small position in Sunedison Notes.Note: SUNE completed the IPO of its yield-co TerraForm Power (TERP) in July 2014 and TerraForm Global (GLBL) in August 2015.Tri Pointe Homes (TPH): TPH is a very small ~1% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q4 2014 at prices between $12.73 and $15.34 and increased by ~9% the following quarter at prices between $13.59 and $16.03. The stock currently trades at $9.57.Note: TPH, a homebuilder with significant exposure to the California market is a spin-off from Weyerhaeuser Company (WY). It started trading in February 2013. The stock is well below the IPO price of $19.Voya Financial (VOYA) previously ING US: The 2.46% VOYA position was established in Q2 2013 at a cost-basis of $20.29. Q4 2014 saw a 37% increase at prices between $35.23 and $43.07. Last quarter saw a ~38% reduction at prices between $38.25 and $47.87. The stock currently trades at $29.24.CNX Coal Resources LP (CNXC), Fifth Street Asset Management (FSAM), Ingram Micro (IM), Owens Illinois (OI), Terraform Global (GLBL), Vodafone Group (VOD), and Yahoo Inc. (YHOO): These are very small (less than ~1.5% of the US long portfolio each) stakes that were kept steady this quarter.Per Greenlight’s Q3 2015 letter, the top disclosed long positions in the partnership are Apple, Consol Energy, General Motors, gold, and Time Warner Inc.  In addition to partner stakes, the fund also invests the float of Greenlight Capital RE (GLRE).The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Greenlight’s US stock holdings in Q4 2015:: Q3 2015 return is (14.3%) compared to (8.2%) for S&P 500 index. YTD 2015 return is (17.1%) net of fees compared to (5.3)% for the S&P 500 Index. General Commentary on some holdings that went south from June 3 to Sept 30: AER - $48.50 to $38.24 - emerging market concerns despite very strong quarter and sharply rising estimates. AAPL - $129.36 to $110.30 - China concerns & tougher comparisons despite good quarter and rising estimates. CBI - $54.85 to $39.66 - energy exposure despite strong quarter and rising estimates for this year and next. GM - $35.54 to $30.02 - China concerns despite good quarter and stable estimates. ATHN short - $116.71 to $133.35 - unjustifiable spike after earnings. GMCR short - $83.39 to $52.14 - reentered at $102.08 - biggest winner this year. MNK short - $124.28 to $63.95 - levered an at risk due to changing climate for drug price gougers. Also lowered guidance. PXD short - $148.69 to $121.64 - fell but nowhere near what it should have with oil below $60. Bubble basket fell 9%. NEW LONGS: KORS cost-basis $45.18, UIL cost-basis $49.57, EXITS: CFG entry $22.36 & exit $26.28 - lowered estimates negating thesis that there was upside to estimates. LRCX entry $54.07 & exit $75.30 - believes cycle is peaking, putting 2016 estimates at risk. SPR entry $20.28 & exit $50.55 - reached fair value. INTC short entry $34.23 & exit $29.28. RHI short entry $28.96 & exit $41.61 - multi-year holding but company performed better than anticipated. JOE short entry $36.90 & exit $17.17 - decade long successful short. X short entry $27.07 & exit $23.21 - did not cover well thus reducing profits. Largest disclosed longs: Apple, Consol Energy, General Motors, gold, and Resona Holdings. Long/Short Ratio: 91% long and 66% short.Note: 7/23/2015 -  added new a holding for Q1 2015 - UIL Holdings - ~2.1M shares.Note - 13D/G/etc. after 6/30/2015: 1) 7/22/2015 -  - CNX - 29.61M shares - 12.9% of business, 7/7/2015 -  - CNXC - 5.49M shares - 47.3% of business, 7/1/2015 -  - GRBK (previously Biofuel) - 24.13M shares 49.9% of business,"