"Tracking Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management Portfolio – Q3 2016 Update"
"Fisher’s US long portfolio value increased from $53.89B to $56.32B in Q3 2016.Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Visa Inc., and Alphabet Inc. are the largest five individual stock positions.Fisher has substantial stakes in several ETFs/ETNs and hundreds of very small positions. They together account for more than one-third of the 13F portfolio.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher’s US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management’s regulatory  filed on 10/11/2016. Please visit our  article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and  highlighting the fund’s moves in Q2 2016.This quarter, Fisher’s US long portfolio increased ~5% from $53.89B to $56.32B. The number of holdings increased from 745 to 776. Significantly large positions increased from 62 to 64. The five largest individual stock positions are Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Visa Inc., and Alphabet Inc. They together account for ~13% of the overall US long portfolio.To know more about Ken Fisher, check-out his  (most notably in Behavioral Finance),  (several of them were NY Times best sellers) and his father Philip Fisher’s scuttlebutt investment philosophy explained in the book “”.Note: Fisher manages ~35,000 private client accounts and over 150 institutional accounts. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance" which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities is an unknown. We do know that Ken Fisher is very talented and can consistently generate alpha - his Forbes picks are his most visible performance cues and those have outperformed the S&P 500 in the vast majority of years. The latest picks (August 2016) are Baidu Inc. (BIDU), Alphabet Inc., Merck, Nike Inc. (NKE), and Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX) (FOXA).Stake Increases:Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lloyds Banking Group plc ADR (LYG): GS saw a huge increase to a 0.56% portfolio stake this quarter at prices between $144 and $172. The stock is now at $171. LYG is a 0.55% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q4 2013 at prices between $4.67 and $5.36. The stake was increased by two-thirds in Q2 2014 at prices between $4.83 and $5.53. Q4 2014 saw a one-third reduction at prices between $4.64 and $5.04 while in this quarter there was a similar increase at prices between $2.55 and $3.31. The stock currently trades near the low end of those ranges at $2.62.UBS AG GRS (UBS): UBS is a 0.85 % of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $16.92 and $21.45. The original stake was reduced by around one-third in Q4 2013 at prices between $19.30 and $21.60. Q1 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was increased by ~37% at prices between $18.62 and $21.50 and the following quarter saw an additional 47% stake increase at prices between $18.32 and $21.15. In Q4 2014, the pattern reversed as the position was reduced by ~39%. Last seven quarters have seen a combined ~20% increase at prices between $12 and $17. The stock currently trades at $13.42.Anheuser Busch Inbev SA ADR (BUD): BUD was a minutely small stake as of Q2 2015. In Q3 2015, the stake was increased to a ~1% of the portfolio position at prices between $104 and $129. The stock currently trades at $129. Q1 2016 saw a ~9% increase at prices between $111 and $127. Last two quarters also saw marginal further increases.Note: AB Inbev merged with SABMiller (SBMRY) and the deal closed earlier this month.Apple Inc. (AAPL): AAPL is a top-three 2.28% individual stock position that was built-up in 2012 at prices between $60 and $72. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $59 and $65. Last quarter had seen a very minor reduction while this quarter saw a marginal increase. The stock currently trades at $118.Bayer AG ADR (BAYRY): BAYRY is a 0.88% of the US long portfolio stake. The bulk of the current position was purchased in Q2 2014 at prices between $128 and $145. Q2 2015 saw a huge 84% increase at prices between $139 and $155. The stock currently trades well below their purchase price ranges at $99.33. For investors attempting to follow Fisher, BAYRY is a very good option to consider for further research. Last several quarters have seen only marginal activity.Note: In May, Bayer AG announced a merger proposal with Monsanto (MON) for $122 per share. The offer was raised multiple times to $128 per share but Monsanto’s stock price is at $102 reflecting skepticism about the deal going through.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): BRK.B is a 1.44% of the US long portfolio position. The last time a substantial stake build-up happened was in Q3 2013 at prices between $112 and $119 when the position was increased by ~55%. The stock currently trades at $144. It is a very long-term position. The last seven quarters have seen minor increases.Cisco Systems (CSCO): CSCO is another long-term holding that was first purchased in 2009. By 2012, the stake was at over 33M shares. It has since been reduced to 15.5M shares (0.87% of the US long portfolio). The stock currently trades at $30.18.CTrip.com International ADR (CTRP): CTRP is a 0.82% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was increased by ~25% in Q3 2015 at prices between $30 and $40. Q4 2015 saw a huge ~120% increase at prices between $31 and $56. The stock currently trades at $46.57. Last three quarters have seen minor further increases.Note: The prices quoted above are adjusted for the 2-for-1 stock-split in December 2015.Walt Disney (DIS): DIS was a very small position in the portfolio till 2012 when over 8M shares were purchased at prices between $39 and $53. There has only been marginal activity since. The stock currently trades at $91.30. The position stands at 8.72M shares and the stake is at 1.44% of the US long portfolio.Dr. Reddy’s (RDY):  RDY is a very small 0.47% portfolio stake. The last significant activity was in Q1 2015 when there was a ~25% increase at prices between $50 and $57. The stock is now at $45.07. This quarter saw a ~9% increase at prices between $43.61 and $54.45.Exxon Mobil (XOM): XOM is a very long-term position that has fluctuated over the years. The bulk of the current stake was built in 2011 at prices between $69 and $87. Q3 2015 saw a ~22% increase at prices between $68.71 and $83.14. Q1 2016 saw an about turn: ~16% reduction at prices between $73.18 and $84.53. The current position stands at 4.61M shares (0.71% of the US long portfolio) and the stock is at $86.54.Home Depot (HD): HD is a fairly large 1.94% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. The stock has more than doubled and currently trades at $126. Last two quarters saw marginal reductions while there was a minor increase this quarter.L Oreal Co. ADR (LRLCY): LRLCY was a very small position first purchased in 2008. It was built up to a significant ~1% stake in 2012 at prices between $20 and $28. The eight quarters from Q3 2013 to Q2 2015 saw a combined ~20% reduction at prices between $30 and $39. The stock currently trades at $36.82 and the remaining stake is at 0.66% of the US long portfolio. Last three quarters saw marginal increases.Oracle Corporation (ORCL): ORCL is a 0.80% of the US long portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original stake was reduced by around 50% in Q4 2013 at prices between $32 and $38. Since then the activity has been minor. The stock currently trades at $38.41. Q1 2016 saw marginal selling while last two quarters have seen minor increases.Procter & Gamble (PG): PG is another long-term 1.29% of the US long portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original position was increased by just over 75% in 2012 at prices between $60 and $70 and has since been kept relatively steady. Last nine quarters have seen marginal buying. The stock currently trades at $88.43.SAP AG ADR (SAP): SAP is a ~1% of the US long portfolio position that was built-up over several quarters in 2012 at prices between $54 and $80. The stake has wavered since. There were very minor increases in the last six quarters. The stock currently trades at $86.13.Wal-Mart Stores (WMT):  The 0.65% WMT stake was mostly purchased last quarter at prices between $63.15 and $73.02. There was a marginal increase this quarter. The stock currently trades at $68.45.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA), Coca Cola (KO), General Electric (GE), GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (GSK), Infosys Ltd. (INFY), Merck Inc. (MRK), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were increased marginally (less than ~10% change in position size) this quarter. As the activities were very minor, they do not indicate a change in bias.Stake Decreases:American Express (AXP): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original stake was around 9M shares and the current stake is 10.53M shares. This quarter saw a ~10% reduction at prices between $59 and $66 and the stock is now at ~$60. The position is at 1.20% of the portfolio.Bank of America (BAC): BAC is a ~1% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was established in Q2 2013 and the following quarter at prices between $11.50 and $15. It had since been kept relatively steady. The stock currently trades at $16. This quarter saw a ~17% selling at prices between $12.74 and $16.19.Citigroup Inc. (C) and Daimler AG ADR (DDAIF): These two small positions saw significant reductions this quarter. The C stake saw a roughly one-third selling at prices between $41 and $48 while the DDAIF position saw a ~25% reduction at prices between $57.60 and $72.01. C currently trades at $48.61 while DDAIF is now at $70.36. C & DDAIF are at 0.69% and 0.56% of the portfolio respectively.LVMH Moet Hennssy ADR (LVMUY): LVMUY was a 1.26% of the US long portfolio position as of Q3 2014. It was reduced by 22% in Q4 2014 at prices between $31.59 and $35.84. The following quarter saw a further ~43% reduction at prices between $34.59 and $38.18. Q1 2016 saw the pattern reverse: ~19% increase at prices between $29.26 and $35.31. Last quarter had seen marginal selling while there was a ~30% reduction this quarter at prices between $29.43 and $35.66. The stock currently trades at $36.58. The original position is from 2008 with the bulk purchased in 2012 at prices between $27.62 and $37.24.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL): GOOG was a very small position that was built-up to a substantial 2% position in 2011 at prices between $242 and $301. The stock has more than doubled and currently trades at $779. The position stands at 2.05% of the US long portfolio. Last quarter saw a marginal increase while there was a minor reduction this quarter.Amazon.com (AMZN): AMZN is the largest individual stock position at 2.94% of the portfolio. The position is from 2011 and has quadrupled: the cost-basis is ~$200 compared to the current price of $823. Last quarter saw a ~21% selling at prices between $586 and $728. Fisher is starting to harvest huge long term gains. This quarter saw marginal selling.Chevron Inc. (CVX), HSBC plc (HSBC) and Siemens AG (SIEGY): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were increased substantially in Q1 2016. All three positions saw marginal increases last quarter and minor trimming this quarter. The 0.66% CVX stake was increased by ~30% in Q1 2016 at prices between $79 and $98 and the stock currently trades outside that range at $101. The 0.85% HSBC position was increased by ~13% at prices between $30.71 and $39.47 and the stock is now at $37.67. SIEGY is a 0.80% portfolio stake increased by ~45% in Q1 2016 at prices between $88 and $106 and stock currently trades at $116.Comcast Corporation (CMCSA): CMCSA is a 1.47% of the US long portfolio position. The original stake was established in 2012 at prices between $24 and $37. There has only been minor activity since. The stock currently trades at $65.20.JP Morgan Chase (JPM): JPM is a 1.64% of the US long portfolio position. The bulk of the current stake was established in 2012 when almost 12M shares were purchased at prices between $32 and $46. The stock currently trades at $67.52 and the position is at ~14M shares. The stake saw marginal selling over the last two quarters.Novo-Nordisk A S ADR (NVO): NVO was first purchased in 2011 with the bulk purchased in 2012 at prices between $23 and $34. Last nine quarters have seen a combined ~11% reduction. The stock currently trades at $39.58 and the position is at 0.81% of the US long portfolio.Roche Holding Limited ADR (RHHBY): RHHBY was a minutely small 0.19% of the portfolio position as of Q1 2015. The following quarter saw a whopping ~400% increase at prices between $34.38 and $38.46. The stock currently trades below that range at $29.69 and the stake is now at 0.83% of the portfolio. Last four quarters had seen marginal increases while this quarter saw a minor reduction.Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): TSM is a very long-term 1.57% of the US long portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake was reduced by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $17 and $20. Last nine quarters had seen a combined ~70% increase at prices between $19 and $26. There was very minor selling this quarter. The stock currently trades at $30.66.HDFC Bank (HDB), Intel Corporation (INTC), Novartis A G ADR (NVS), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), Sanofi ADR (SNY), Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), Tata Motors (TTM), United Technologies (UTX), Visa Inc. (V), and Wells Fargo (WFC): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were decreased marginally (less than ~10% change in position size) this quarter. As the activities were very minor, they do not indicate a change in bias.Kept Steady:Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): JNJ is a large top-three 2.27% of the portfolio position. Around two-thirds of the stake was purchased in 2008 at prices between $55 and $72 and most of the rest in 2011 at prices between $58 and $68. The last significant buying was in Q2 2014 when a 4.7% stake increase happened at prices between $96 and $106. The stock currently trades at $118.The portfolio also has several large positions in different ETNs and ETFs (FEEU) (FIGY) (FBGX) (FLGE) (LQD) (MBB) (SCPB) - those together accounts for around 13% of the US long portfolio. There was a ~40% reduction this quarter in the Europe 50 ETN FEEU. Fisher also had large stakes in the following businesses per the latest 13G filings: Atlas Air (AAWW) - 4.9%, Heartland Express (HTLD) - 2.7%, Wright Medical (WMGI) - ~5%, and Veeco Instruments (VECO) - 4.5%.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher’s US stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the US long portfolio each are individually listed) in Q3 2016:Note for next round (Q2 2016): A reader was confused about whether I was referring to price increase or “position size” increase when saying “position was increased by x%”. I offered to say “position size was increased by x%” to make it more clear from the next round. So, I should look to make sure this is the case."