"Tracking John Paulsons Paulson & Company Portfolio  Q1 2015 Update"
"John Paulsons U.S. long portfolio increased from $19.36B to $19.64B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are Shire plc, Actavis plc, and Time Warner Cable.Paulson & Co. added American International Group and increased Actavis plc, T-Mobile US, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals during the quarter.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulsons US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulsons regulatory  filed on 05/15/2015. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  highlighting the funds moves during Q4 2014.This quarter, Paulsons US long portfolio increased marginally from $19.36B to $19.64B. There are 61 13F securities in the portfolio although only 35 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top-five positions are Shire plc, Actavis plc, Time Warner Cable, SPDR Gold ETF, and Mallinckrodt plc and they together account for 36.71% of the entire portfolio. The largest holding is Shire plc at 10.15% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that story, check-out .Stake Disposals:Alibaba Group (BABA): BABA was a very small 1.02% of the US long portfolio position purchased in Q3 2014 at prices between $86.10 and $93.89. It was disposed of this quarter at prices between $81.58 and $105. The stock currently trades at $90.70.Allergan Inc. (AGN): AGN was a merger-arbitrage stake established in Q2 2014 when it traded between $117 and $174. Last quarter saw a further 18% increase at prices between $177 and $214. Actavis plc agreed to acquire AGN in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $219 per share and that transaction closed in March.Covidien plc (COV): The large 5.31% position was a merger-arbitrage stake. The position was increased by ~80% in Q3 2014 at prices between $82.54 and $91.76 but reduced by ~20% last quarter at prices between $82.20 and $104. Medtronic (MDT) agreed to acquire COV in June 2014 ($35.19 in cash and 0.956 of MDT for each share of COV held) and that transaction closed in January.Equinix Inc. (EQIX): EQIX was a 2.11% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q2 2012 at prices between $147 and $175 and doubled in Q3 2012 at prices between $165 and $203. Q2 2013 saw a reversal as the position was reduced by half at prices between $176 and $230. Q3 2013 saw a 20% increase at prices between $165 and $203 and that was followed with a 74% increase in Q4 2013 at prices between $155 and $184. Last quarter, the pattern reversed again: 17% reduction at prices between $192 and $234 and that was followed with the elimination this quarter at prices between $217 and $239. The stock currently trades at $270.Family Dollar Stores (FDO): The 1.74% FDO position was almost eliminated last quarter at prices between $76.37 and $79.78 and the remaining minutely small stake was disposed of this quarter. It was established in Q1 2013 at prices between $54.87 and $64 and roughly doubled in the following two quarters at prices between $57.42 and $75. The stock currently trades at $78.12.NOTE: Dollar Tree (DLTR) is set to acquire FDO in a cash-and-stock deal ($59.60 cash and $14.90 in stock).PetSmart Inc. (PETM): PETM was a small 1.21% of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2014. It was purchased at prices between $59.80 and $72.27 and reduced by ~52% last quarter at prices between $64.69 and $81.44. PETM was acquired in a private equity cash transaction for $83 per share by a consortium led by BC Partners in March.Verizon Communications (VZ): VZ was a 1.56% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2014 as a result of Vodafones Verizon stake disposal: Paulson held Vodafone (VOD) stock for which he received 0.26 shares of Verizon stock for each share of Vodafone held. Last quarter, the stake was almost eliminated at prices between $45.42 and $51.50 and the remaining minutely small position was disposed of this quarter. The stock currently trades at $49.69.New Stakes:American International Group (AIG): AIG is a fairly large 4.07% of the US long portfolio stake established this quarter at prices between $48.87 and $56.11. The stock currently trades at $59.96. The substantial stake establishment indicates a clear bullish bias.Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC): CSC is a small 1.39% of the US long portfolio position purchased this quarter at prices between $60.68 and $71.74. The stock currently trades at $69.26.Cyberonics Inc. (CYBX): CYBX is a very small 0.57% stake established this quarter at prices between $54.36 and $72.03. The stock currently trades at $61.82. Paulson controls ~6.6% of the business.Stake Decreases:Bank of America (BAC) 2019 WTS: This is a very small 0.65% of the US long portfolio position. It was reduced by ~16% last quarter and marginally this quarter. As the position size is very small, the activity does not indicate a clear bias.Cablevision Systems (CVC): CVC is a 0.78% of the US long portfolio stake that was first purchased in Q4 2012 at prices between $13.65 and $18.52. In Q1 2013, the position was increased by around one-third at prices between $13.76 and $15.75. Q2 2013 saw an additional 24% increase at prices between $13.93 and $16.82. Last quarter saw a ~29% reduction at prices between $17.24 and $21.32 and that was followed with a ~39% reduction this quarter at prices between $17.72 and $20.76. The stock currently trades at $24.69.Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): MNK is a large (top-five) 5.46% of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $42 and $47.20. It was increased by ~20% in Q2 2014 at prices between $60.28 and $82.70 and an additional one-third in the following quarter at prices between $68.12 and $90. The stock currently trades well outside those ranges at $129. This quarter saw a ~6% trimming at prices between $93.89 and $133. Mallinckrodt was spun-off from Covidien plc (COV) on July 1, 2013 (one share of MNK for every eight shares of COV). Paulson took the position soon after - the current stake is at around ~7.3% of the business. He is starting to harvest huge long-term gains.MGM Resorts (MGM): MGM was a huge position established in Q2 2010 at prices between $9.48 and $15.89. Last quarter saw a ~70% reduction at prices between $18.01 and $23.25 and that was followed with a ~11% reduction this quarter at prices between $19.13 and $22.85. The stock currently trades at $20.07 and the remaining stake is at 0.67% of the portfolio. Paulson is harvesting long-term capital gains from this position.Oasis Petroleum (OAS): OAS was a very small 0.25% of the US long portfolio position as of Q3 2013. The stake was increased substantially to a 2.24% position in Q4 2013 at prices between $43 and $57. It was further increased by one-third in Q1 2014 at prices between $39 and $47. Last two quarters had seen minor selling and this quarter saw a ~10% reduction at prices between $12.56 and $18.65. The stock currently trades well below his purchase price ranges at $16.Realogy Holdings (RLGY): RLGY is a 1.65% of the US long portfolio (~4.9% of the business) position that was reduced by ~40% in the last two quarters at prices between $33.91 and $48.86. The original investment was made prior to the October 2012 IPO. The stock currently trades at $47.42.Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP): The fairly large 4.84% of the portfolio stake in SLXP was established last quarter at prices between $91.47 and $156.2. It was reduced by ~5% this quarter.Note: Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) agreed to acquire Salix in a $173 per share cash deal and that transaction closed last month.Sprint (S): S was Paulsons largest position in Q2 2013 at 9.90% of the US long portfolio. The stake was established in Q4 2012 and doubled in Q1 2013. In Q3 2013, the position was reduced to a 2.27% stake at prices between $5.50 and $7.25. Last quarter also saw a ~53% reduction at prices between $3.81 and $6.34. This quarter, the remaining stake was almost eliminated at prices between $4.08 and $5.38. The stock currently trades at $4.70.Whiting Petroleum (WLL): WLL was a very small 0.31% of the US long portfolio position in Q3 2013. The stake was increased to a large 3.15% position in Q4 2013 at prices between $58 and $70. Last quarter saw a ~44% increase as result of Whitings acquisition of Kodiak that closed in December 2014 - Paulson had a ~26M share position in Kodiak that converted into Whiting stock (0.177 shares of Whiting for each share held). This quarter saw a ~7.5% reduction at prices between $26.48 and $40.95 and the stake is now at 1.96% of the portfolio (~6% of the business). For investors attempting to follow Paulson, WLL is a very good option to consider for further research. It currently trades well below his purchase price ranges at $32.85.Popular Inc. (BPOP), MGIC Investment (MTG), and Radian Group (RDN): These very small positions (less than 1% of the US long portfolio) were further reduced this quarter. Although the relative sizes are very small, Paulsons ownership of these businesses are very significant: ~4.6% of BPOP, ~3.8% of MTG, and ~4.7% of RDN.Stake Increases:Actavis plc (ACT): ACT was a minutely small 0.29% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2014. The following two quarters saw a ~420% increase at prices between $202 and $271. This quarter saw another ~260% increase. Part of the increase was due to the acquisition of Allergan by Actavis. Paulson held 6.37M shares of Allergan for which he received ~2.35M shares. The stock is currently at $298 and the stake is huge (top-three) at 8.55% of the portfolio.Grifols S A (GRFS): GRFS is a 2.97% of the US long portfolio position that was marginally reduced in the last three quarters. It was increased slightly this quarter. As the activity is minor, it does not indicate a change in bias.T-Mobile USA (TMUS): The stake was acquired as a result of the reverse-merger and IPO transaction of MetroPCS with T-Mobile USA. MetroPCS was a 2.19% of the US long portfolio established in Q3 2012. This was a timely purchase for Paulson and he has large unrealized gains. This quarter saw a ~55% increase at prices between $26.87 and $33.20. The stock currently trades at $35.21. The activity indicates a bullish bias.Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): VRX position was increased by almost 300% this quarter at prices between $143 and $205. The stock currently trades at $228 and the position is now very significant at 2.07% of the portfolio.Post Holdings (POST) & Tim Participaceoes S A (TSU): These are very small (~0.5% of the portfolio each) stakes that were increased this quarter. Paulson controls 4.7% of POST.Kept Steady:AngloGold Ashanti (AU): The 1.25% AU position was reduced by ~4.5% in Q2 2014 at prices between $15.42 and $18.57. Q1 2014 also saw a ~11% reduction at prices between $11.39 and $19.36. It is a long-term position that has been in the portfolio since 2009. The stock currently trades at $10.35. Paulson controls 6.49% of the business.Caesars Acquisition Company (CACQ): CACQ is a 0.42% of the US long portfolio stake (9% of the business) established in Q4 2013. Caesars Acquisition is a spin-off from Caesars Entertainment and the terms of the deal allowed existing shareholders to get CACQ shares at $9.43 (rights offering). Paulson probably took this option to establish the position. The stock currently trades at $7.50Caesars Entertainment (CZR): CZR is a 0.73% position (9.43% of the business). The stake was increased by 5.2% in Q4 2013 at prices between $16.74 and $22.39 and another 11% in Q1 2014 at prices between $19 and $26.47. The stock currently trades at $9.95. The original holding is from prior to the 02/2012 IPO.Cobalt International Energy (CIE): CIE was a minute 0.12% of the US long portfolio stake as of Q1 2013. The position was increased to a substantial 2.63% stake in Q2 2013 at prices between $25 and $29. The stake was more than doubled in Q1 2014 at prices between $15.85 and $19.46 and the following quarter saw a further 52% increase at prices between $17.20 and $19.36. The stock currently trades well below his purchase price ranges at $9.90 and the position stands at 2% of the US long portfolio (10.12% of the business). For investors attempting to follow Paulson, CIE is a good option to consider for further research.DirecTV (DTV): DTV is a merger arbitrage stake established in Q2 2014. AT&T (T) is acquiring DTV in a deal worth $95 per share ($28.50 cash and $66.60 stock). The stock is currently at $91.55.Extended Stay America (STAY): STAY is a fairly large 4.74% of the US long portfolio position. The stake came about as a result of the firms IPO in November 2013. Extended Stay America filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, 2009 and an investment group consisting of Paulson & Company, Blackstone Group, and Centerbridge Partners bought Extended Stay America out of bankruptcy in October 2010. The IPO has already made the firms more than three times their investment. It is interesting that Paulson has chosen to hold on. STAY currently trades at $20.06 compared to the IPO offering price of $20.HCA Holdings (HCA): HCA was a small 0.83% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2014. It was increased by almost 80% in Q3 2014 at prices between $54.52 and $73.48. Last quarter saw an about-turn as the position was reduced by ~22% at prices between $62.94 and $74.96. The stock currently trades at $82.14.Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC): HMHC is a 3.70% of the US long portfolio position established in Q4 2013 as a result of its November 2013 IPO. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March 2012. Paulson held senior debt that got converted into equity. The IPO was priced at $12 per share and it currently trades at $24.18.Mylan Inc. (MYL): MYL is a 4.52% of the US long portfolio position. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Q1 2013 saw a 25% reduction at prices between $27.54 and $31 and the following quarter saw another one-third reduction at prices between $28.70 and $32. Last quarter saw a ~20% increase at prices between $45.27 and $58.62. The stock trades currently at $70.45.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): SHPG is Paulsons largest position at 10.15% of the US long portfolio. It was first established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100. In Q2 2014, the stake was again increased by ~36% at prices between $142 and $236. Q3 2014 saw a whopping ~170% increase at prices between $232 and $263. The stock currently trades at $256.Note: On July 18, 2014, AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) agreed to buy Shire PLC for $53B but they called off the deal three months later.  Shire earned a break-up fee of $1.6B. In January 2015, SHPG agreed to acquire NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) for $5.2BSPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulsons largest position by far at 19.03% of the US long portfolio as of Q1 2013. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 at prices between $116 and $155. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $82.71 and $97.80. It was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices and since then had been kept relatively steady. The stock currently trades at $116. The position was kept steady in the last seven quarters and it is currently his fourth-largest 13F position at 5.92% of the US long portfolio.Talisman Energy (TLM): TLM is a 2.73% of the US long portfolio position purchased at prices between $3.69 and $8.65. Repsol SA (REPYY) agreed to acquire TLM for $8 per share and the deal closed earlier this month.Time Warner Cable (TWC): TWC is a large (top-three) 6.64% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q3 2013 at prices between $107 and $118. The position was almost doubled in Q4 2013 at prices between $110 and $138. The aggressive stake build-up worked almost immediately as Comcast (CMCSA) agreed to buy TWC in an all-stock deal (announced 2/14/2014, 2.875 shares of CMCSA for each share of TWC held). However, the transaction was called off last month. The last four quarters also saw activity with the net effect of a ~50% stake increase. The stock currently trades at $167.Novagold (NG): NG is a very small 0.53% of the portfolio stake. As a percentage of the business, the position is very significant at ~11%. It is a very long-term stake and Paulsons cost-basis is higher than the current price of $4.12.Other very small positions (less than 0.5% of the US long portfolio each) in the portfolio include Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Allied Nevada Gold (ANV), BAC 2018 WTS, Dex Media (DXM), Enzymotec Ltd. (ENZY), Felcor Lodging (FCH), Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty (GULTU), Home Loan Servicing Solutions (HLSSF), Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC), International Tower Hill, Iamgold Corp. (IAG), InterXion Holding (INXN), Kamada Ltd. (KMDA), Novacopper Inc. (NCQ), Outfront Media (OUT), Randgold Resources (GOLD), Sprint Corp. (S), Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE), Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP), Vanda Pharma (VNDA), Whitewave Foods (WWAV), William Lyon Homes (WLH), and Zillow Group (Z). Although these positions are very small relative to the size of the portfolio, it should be noted that he owns significant stakes in the following businesses: 9.14% of Vanda Pharmaceuticals and 19.52% of Enzymotec Ltd.,The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulsons US stock holdings in Q1 2015:Note: 13G/13D/A Reports: MGM - 6.97M shares - 1.42%. Family Dollar - 89,200 - 0.08%. MGIC Investments - 15.25M shares - 4.49% vs 14.4M shares in 13F. AngloGold Ashanti - 26.21M shares - 6.49%. Post Holdings - 3.94M shares - 8.4% vs 1.93M shares in 13F. Vanda Pharmaceuticals - 3.63M shares - 9.14%. Cobalt International Energy - 41.75M shares - 10.12%. Caesars Entertainment - 13.61M shares - 9.43%. Enzymotec Ltd. - 4.24M shares - 19.52%. Caesars Acquisition - 12.27M shares - 9%. Whiting Petroleum - 13.45M shares - 8.01%. Realogy Holdings - 9.23M shares - 6.31%."