"Tracking Dan Loeb’s Third Point Portfolio – Q4 2020 Update"
"Dan Loeb's 13F portfolio value increased from ~$10B to ~$13B this quarter. The number of positions increased from 47 to 73.Third Point added Alphabet and increased Avantor & Planet Fitness while reducing Amazon.com and Alibaba Group Holdings.The top three positions are at ~20% of the portfolio: PG&E Corp, Walt Disney, and Danaher.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Dan Loeb’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Third Point’s regulatory  filed on 2/16/2021. Please visit our  to get an idea of their investment philosophy and our  for the fund’s moves during Q3 2020.The 13F portfolio is very concentrated with the top three holdings accounting for ~20% of the entire portfolio. This quarter, Loeb’s 13F portfolio value increased ~30% from ~$10B to ~$13B as the long-equity allocation in the portfolio increased substantially during the quarter. The number of holdings increased from 47 to 73. The largest five individual stock positions are PG&E, Walt Disney, Danaher Corp, IAA Inc., and Upstart Holdings.Third Point returned 4.1% thru February this year compared to a 1.7% for the S&P 500 Index. Annualized returns since December 1996 inception are at 14.8% compared to 8.9% for the S&P 500 Index. AUM is distributed among several strategies of which the long/short equity portion is the majority: of the 116.8% (over 100% due to leverage) net portfolio exposure, 75.4% is the net-long equity portion. In addition to partner stakes, Third Point also invests the float of Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE) and capital from London listed closed-end fund Third Point Offshore (TPNTF). To know more about Dan Loeb's Third Point, check-out his letters to shareholders at their site. His activist investing style is covered in the book "".Note: Large equity investments not in the 13F report include Sony (SNE), EssilorLuxottica (ESLOY), and Nestle (NSRGY). All three are activist stakes. SNE is a $1.5B investment made in June 2019 when the stock was trading at around $50 per share. It is currently at ~$103. The ESLOY investment was made in early 2019 when the stock was trading at ~$62.50 per share. It currently trades at $84.88. The NSRGY position is from 2017 and the stock has rallied ~40% since. Also, they have a significant portfolio of investments thru their venture firm . Such stakes include investments in SentinelOne, Yellowbrick Data, Aryaka, Kentik, Kumu Networks, Ushur, etc.New Stakes:Upstart Holdings (UPST) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG): UPST is a large (top five) ~4% of the portfolio stake. Third Point’s original position goes back to a Series C funding round in 2015 when the business was valued at ~$180M. They also added 1.2M shares (~$140M outlay) in the December IPO. UPST started trading at ~$44 and currently goes for $59.24. GOOG is a fairly large 3.51% of the portfolio position purchased at prices between ~$1453 and ~$1828 and the stock is now well above that range at $2115.Aptiv plc (APTV), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), and Nike Inc. (NKE): These three small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were established this quarter. APTV is a 1.51% of the portfolio position purchased at prices between ~$94 and ~$131 and it is now at ~$153. The 1.13% SWK stake was established at prices between ~$163 and ~$191 and it currently trades at ~$192. The ~1% NKE position was purchased at prices between ~$120 and ~$144 and it is now at ~$141.Note: Nike is back in the portfolio after a quarter’s gap.Catalent Inc. (CTLT), Leslie’s Inc. (LESL), CarMax Inc. (KMX), RH Inc. (RH), UnitedHealth (UNH), Jaws Acquisition (JWS), Zillow Group (Z), and ContextLogic (WISH): These are very small stakes established this quarter.Note: regulatory filings since the quarter ended show them owning 1.98M shares (2.88% of business) of Jaws Acquisition. This is compared to 5.75M shares in the 13F report. Jaws is merging with Cano Health in a $4.4B EV De-SPAC deal announced in November.Radius Global Infrastructure (RADI), Estee Lauder (EL), Intel Corp (INTC), Vontier Corp (VNT), Social Capital (IPOD) (IPOF) Units, Jaws Spitfire (SPFR) Units, Avanti Acquisition (AVAN) Units, DoorDash Inc. (DASH), Dish Network (DISH), Bluescape Opportunities (BOAC) Units, FirstMark Horizon (FMAC) Units, Marquee Raine Acquisition (MRAC) Units, Star Peak Energy (STPK), Rice Acquisition (RICE) Units, HumanCo Acquisition (HMCO) Units, and Dragoneer Growth Opportunity (DGNR): These are minutely small stakes established during the quarter.Note 1: It was reported in late December that Third Point has built a ~$1B activist stake in Intel.Note 2: Reinvent Technology, Social Capital, Jaws Spitfire, Avanti Acquisition, Bluescape Opportunities, FirstMark Horizon, Marquee Raine, Star Peak Energy, Rice Acquisition, and HumanCo Acquisition, and Dragoneer Growth are SPACs. Dragoneer is merging with CCC in a De-SPAC deal. Others are Pre-Deal.Stake Disposals:Fortive Corp (FTV): FTV was a 2.29% of the portfolio position established last quarter at prices between ~$56 and ~$65. The stake was disposed this quarter at prices between ~$61.60 and ~$73. FTV currently trades at $68.18.10x Genomics (TXG), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Chindata Group holdings (CD), Dish Network Notes, GoodRx Holdings (GDRX), Pactiv Evergreen Inc. (PTVE), Replay Acquisition Corp (RPLA), and Square Inc. (SQ): These are small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes disposed this quarter.Stake Increases:Avantor Inc. (AVTR): The 2.39% AVTR stake was established last quarter at prices between ~$17 and ~$23 and increased by ~235% this quarter at prices between ~$22.50 and ~$28. The stock currently trades at $28.15.Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and TransDigm Group (TDG): These are medium-sized positions established last quarter and increased this quarter. The 2.23% of the portfolio MSFT stake was purchased at prices between ~$200 and ~$232 and increased by ~18% this quarter. The stock currently trades at ~$237. The 2.31% TDG stake was purchased at prices between ~$411 and ~$519 and it is currently well above that range at ~$597. There was a ~12% stake increase this quarter.S&P Global (SPGI): SPGI is a 2.28% stake established in Q2 2016 at prices between $96 and $128. The position has wavered. Recent activity follows: the five quarters thru Q1 2019 saw a combined ~60% selling at prices between $164 and $213. Since then, the activity had been minor. The stock is now at ~$345. There was a ~15% stake increase this quarter.Planet Fitness (PLNT): PLNT is a 1.38% of the portfolio position purchased last quarter at prices between ~$50 and ~$64 and increased by ~200% this quarter at prices between ~$59 and ~$78.50. The stock currently trades at $80.85.Intuit Inc. (INTU), iShares 1-3 year treasury bond, and Reinvent Technology (RTPU) Units: These small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were increased during the quarter.Note: Reinvent Technology is a SPAC merging with Joby Aviation in a $4.6B EV deal announced last month.Stake Decreases:Walt Disney (DIS): DIS is currently the second-largest 13F position at 6.70% of the portfolio. It was purchased in Q1 2020 at prices between $85 and $148. Next quarter saw a ~300% stake increase at prices between $94 and $127. The stock currently trades at ~$197. Last two quarters saw minor trimming.Note: Third Point's bullish thesis on Disney is on the idea that Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) streaming is a big opportunity:IAA Inc. (IAA): IAA is a large ~5% of the portfolio stake established in Q4 2019 at prices between $36 and $47. Q2 2020 saw a ~63% stake increase at prices between $25 and $45. IAA is a June 2019 spinoff of the salvage auction business of KAR Auctions (KAR). It started trading at ~$40 and currently goes for $57.78. Last two quarters saw minor trimming.Note: regulatory filings since the quarter ended show them owning 9.3M shares (6.9% of the business). This is compared to 9.9M shares in the 13F report.Amazon.com (AMZN): AMZN is a 3.64% of the portfolio position purchased in Q4 2019 at prices between $1705 and $1870. The stake saw a ~200% increase in Q1 2020 at prices between $1677 and $2170. The stock is now well above those ranges at ~$3114. There was a ~30% selling this quarter at prices between ~$3005 and ~$3444.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA): BABA is a 2.51% of the portfolio position established in Q2 2020 at prices between $187 and $229 and the stock currently trades at ~$241. Last quarter saw a ~25% stake increase at prices between ~$216 and ~$298. This quarter saw similar selling at prices between ~$222 and ~$317.Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): The 2.33% FIS position came about as a result of FIS acquiring WorldPay in a cash-and-stock transaction (0.9287 FIS shares and $11 cash for each share held) that closed in July 2019. Third Point had a ~3% of the portfolio (2.2M shares) position in WorldPay. It was established in the 2017-2018 timeframe at a cost-basis of ~$70 per share. The resultant FIS stake was also increased by ~25% in Q3 2019 at prices between $125 and $140. Q2 2020 saw another ~37% stake increase at prices between ~$115 and ~$143. This quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between ~$124 and ~$151. It currently trades at ~$145.JD.com (JD) and Facebook Inc. (FB): These two positions were purchased in Q2 2020. JD is a 2.30% of the portfolio stake established at prices between $40 and $62 and the stock currently trades at ~$90. There was a ~35% stake increase last quarter at prices between ~$60 and ~$83 while this quarter saw a ~25% selling at prices between ~$76 and ~$93. The 2.32% FB position was purchased at prices between $154 and $242 and the stock is now at ~$274. Last quarter saw a one-third stake increase at prices between ~$230 and ~$304. There was minor trimming this quarter.Adobe Systems (ADBE): ADBE is a 1.75% stake that saw a ~75% increase in Q2 2018 at prices between $212 and $258 and another ~30% increase next quarter at prices between $242 and $275. There was a ~30% selling in Q1 2020 at prices between $285 and $383. This quarter saw another ~30% selling at prices between ~$445 and ~$514. The stock is now at ~$451.Salesforce.com (CRM): The 1.54% CRM position was more than doubled in Q4 2018 at prices between $121 and $160. Q3 2019 saw the position almost doubled again at prices between $140 and $160. H1 2020 had seen a ~37% selling at prices between $124 and $192. That was followed with a similar reduction this quarter at prices between ~$220 and ~$267. The stock is now at ~$216.Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS): The 1.22% EXPE position was established last quarter at prices between ~$80 and ~$103 and it is now well above that range at ~$171. There was a ~25% selling this quarter at prices between ~$90 and ~$132. PINS is a 0.51% stake purchased at prices between ~$23 and ~$45 and the stock currently trades at $71.88. The stake was reduced by ~70% this quarter at prices between ~$43 and ~$73.Kept Steady:PG&E Corp (PCG): PCG is currently the largest 13F stake at ~8% of the portfolio. The stock currently trades at $11.45. Third Point’s Q2 2020 letter had the following regarding the investment in PG&E – the position came about as a result of participating in a PIPE (terms for the exit financing called for up to $10.50 per share purchase price). They believed the stock was undervalued as there are several risk mitigation measures in place – wildfire fund (insurance against wildfires), $3B per year investments in wildfire safety, ESG plans, etc.Danaher Corp. (DHR): The top five ~5% DHR stake was established in Q3 2015 at prices between $60.90 and $71.50 and increased by two-thirds in Q1 2016 at prices between $62 and $74. There was a ~20% stake increase in Q1 2019 at prices between $98 and $132 while the H1 2020 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $129 and $177. It currently trades at ~$219.Note: The prices quoted above are adjusted for the Fortive (FTV) spin-off in July 2016.Charter Communications (CHTR): The large 3.83% CHTR position was established in Q1 2020 at prices between $372 and $543 and increased by ~150% next quarter at prices between $424 and $547. It is now at ~$624.Burlington Stores (BURL): The 3.37% portfolio stake in BURL was established in Q2 2019 at prices between $146 and $177. The position saw a ~115% stake increase next quarter at prices between $168 and $205. Q1 2020 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $121 and $248 while next quarter there was a similar increase at prices between $141 and $217. Last quarter also saw a ~20% stake increase at prices between ~$171 and ~$217. The stock currently trades at ~$303.Visa Inc. (V): The 2.61% Visa stake was established in Q2 2018 at prices between $118 and $136. The stock is now well above that range at ~$226. H1 2020 had seen a ~17% reduction at prices between $136 and $213 while last quarter there was a ~25% stake increase at prices between ~$189 and ~$217.Iqvia Holdings (IQV): The 2.50% IQV position was purchased in Q3 2018 at prices between $99 and $131 and increased by ~25% in Q3 2019 at prices between $143 and $162. The stock currently trades at ~$189.Ferrari NV (RACE): RACE is now a ~2% of the portfolio position. A small position was purchased in Q4 2019. H2 2020 saw the stake built at prices between ~$130 and ~$180. The stock currently trades at ~$197.TE Connectivity (TEL): The 1.45% TEL stake was established in Q1 2020 at prices between $53 and $100 and it is now at ~$132. Last two quarters had seen a ~15% stake increase.Bristol Myers Squibb Rights (BMY.RT), Black Knight Inc. (BKI), Cohn Robbins Holdings (CRHCU), Equitrans Midstream (ETRN), Go Acquisition (GOAC) Units, Global Blue Group Holding AG (GB), Kadmon Holdings (KDMN), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR): These small (less than ~1.3% of the portfolio each) stakes were kept steady this quarter.Note 1: Third Point has a ~7% of the business stake in Global Blue Group Holding AG. Cohn Robbins and Go Acquisition are pre-deal SPACs.Note 2: The bulk of the stake in Kadmon Holdings is from prior to its IPO in July 2016 (PE investment). The biopharma was founded in 2010 by Sam Waksal (ImClone insider trading conviction and 7-year prison term infamy, circa 2003). Loeb controls ~6.5% of Kadmon Holdings (KDMN).The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Loeb’s 13F stock holdings in Q4 2020:Q3 2020 Letter, Oct Report, etc.: .: Performance: thru October 3% vs 2.8% for S&P 500 index. 14.1 since 1996 inception vs 8.3% for S&P 500 Index. Exposure: 109.7% long and 38.1% short for a net exposure of 71.6% as of October. Thinks Prudential plc is undervalued. Commentary focused on Third Point Ventures investments (Yellowbrick Data, Aryaka, Kentik, Kumu Networks, Ushur) and specifically two unicorns – SentinelOne and Upstart.Regulatory filings thru 11/22/2020: Form 4 – 9/4 – Far Point Acquisition (FPAC) – 10.42M shares plus others and derivatives. 13D – 9/4 – Global Blue Group AG – 11.75M shares – 6.9% of business. Far Point Acquisition transaction related filing."