"Tracking John Paulsons Paulson & Company Portfolio  Q1 2016 Update"
"John Paulsons U.S. long portfolio decreased from $16.73B to $13.52B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are Allergan plc, Shire plc, and Mylan NV.Paulson increased Akorn Inc. and Endo International during the quarter.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulsons US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulsons regulatory  filed on 05/16/2016. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  highlighting the funds moves during Q4 2015.This quarter, Paulsons US long portfolio decreased ~19% from $16.73B to $13.52B. There are 97 13F securities in the portfolio although only 30 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions Allergan plc, Shire plc, Mylan NV, Teva Pharmaceuticals, and Extended Stay America. They together account for 41.72% of the entire portfolio. The largest holding is Allergan plc at 11.16% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that story, check-out .Stake Disposals:Outfront Media (OUT): OUT was a very small 0.56% position. It was sold this quarter at prices between $18 and $22. The stock is currently at $21.75. Although the relative position size was small, as a percentage of the business the stake was very significant at 3.1%.New Stakes:Activision Blizzard (ATVI): ATVI is a 0.79% of the portfolio position established this quarter at prices between $28 and $39. The stock currently trades at $37.53.B/E Aerospace (BEAV): BEAV is a ~1% of the portfolio stake purchased this quarter at prices between $38 and $47 and the stock is now at $46.58.Stake Decreases:American International Group (AIG): AIG is a fairly large 4.49% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q1 2015 at prices between $48.87 and $56.11. Last quarter saw a ~21% reduction at prices between $56.82 and $64.12 and that was followed with a ~3% trimming this quarter. The stock currently trades at $56.97.Note: Carl Icahn has a ~3.9% activist stake in the business.AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a very small 1.54% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. The stock currently trades at $14.46. Last quarter had seen a ~9% trimming while quarter saw a further one-third reduction at prices between $7.10 and $13.95. Paulson still controls ~3.7% of the business.Cobalt International Energy (CIE): CIE was a minute 0.12% of the US long portfolio stake as of Q1 2013. The position was increased to a substantial 2.63% stake in Q2 2013 at prices between $25 and $29. The position was more than doubled in Q1 2014 at prices between $15.85 and $19.46 and the following quarter saw a further 52% increase at prices between $17.20 and $19.36. The stock currently trades well below his purchase price ranges at $2.48 and the stake stands at 0.87% of the US long portfolio (~9% of the business). This quarter saw a marginal reduction.Lam Research (LRCX): LRCX is a 2.72% stake established last quarter at prices between $64.44 and $80.75. This quarter saw a ~11% selling at prices between $64.21 and $82.60. The stock currently trades at $76.68.Novagold (NG): NG is a small 1.32 % of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. The stock is currently at $5.98, well below Paulsons cost-basis. The 13F shows very minor trimming during the quarter.Note: A regulatory Form 4 filing on 4/13/2016 shows Paulson owning 31.82M shares (~10% of the business). This is compared to 35.52M shares in the 13F - 3.7M shares were disposed after the quarter ended at prices between $5.34 and $6.15.Perrigo plc (PRGO): The 2.50% portfolio stake was purchased in Q3 2015 at prices between $153 and $194 and the stock is now well below that range at $93.76. Last quarter saw a ~9% trimming while this quarter saw a marginal further reduction. It was originally a merger arbitrage stake: Mylan (MYL) made a hostile takeover bid for PRGO but the tender offer lapsed in November 2015.SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulsons largest position by far at 19.03% of the US long portfolio as of Q1 2013. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $82.71 and $97.80 and was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 as well at prices between $116 and $155. Last quarter saw a ~38% reduction at prices between $100 and $114 and that was followed with a ~17% selling this quarter at prices between $102 and $122. The stock currently trades at $120. The remaining stake is at 4.15% of the portfolio.Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT): HOT is a 3.41% of the US long portfolio position established in Q2 2015 at prices between $80.55 and $87.53 and increased by ~30% the following quarter at prices between $64.53 and $85.62. Last quarter saw a ~26% reduction at prices between $66 and $80 and that was followed with a ~52% reduction this quarter at prices between $59 and $84. The stock currently trades at $72.68.Note: Following CEO exit in February 2015, Starwood said they were exploring strategic alternatives to increase shareholder value. In November, Marriott International (MAR) announced a merger with HOT in a cash-and-stock deal ($21 cash and 0.8 shares of MAR for each share of HOT held).Time Warner Cable (TWC): TWC is a 2.74% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q3 2013 at prices between $107 and $118. The position was almost doubled the following quarter at prices between $110 and $138. Since then, there was a ~50% further increase at a cost-basis of around $140. Last quarter saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $179 and $192 and that was followed with another ~69% reduction this quarter at prices between $176 and $206. Paulson harvested huge long-term gains from this position.Note: In May 2015, Charter Communications (CHTR) agreed to buy TWC in a cash-and-stock deal and the transaction closed last week.T-Mobile USA (TMUS): The stake was acquired as a result of the reverse-merger and IPO transaction of MetroPCS with T-Mobile USA. MetroPCS was a 2.19% of the US long portfolio established in Q3 2012. This was a timely purchase for Paulson and he has large unrealized gains. Q1 2015 saw a ~55% increase at prices between $26.87 and $33.20. The stock currently trades at $41.70. Last quarter saw a ~16% reduction at prices between $34.56 and $41.38 while this quarter saw another ~26% selling at prices between $33.89 and $40.59.Post Holdings (POST) and LivaNova plc (LIVN) previously Cybernics (CYBX): These are small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) positions that saw decreases this quarter. Paulson controls ~5% of LIVN.Note: Cyberonics and Italy-based Sorin Spa combined to form LivaNova in a merger that closed in October 2015. Paulson had a position in Cyberonics.Bank of America (BAC) 2019 WTS, Caesars Acquisition (CACQ), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR): These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes that were further decreased this quarter. Although the relative position sizes are small, it is very significant that Paulson has significant ~10% ownership stakes each in CACQ and CZR.Stake Increases:Allergan plc (AGN): AGN was a minutely small 0.29% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2014. The following two quarters saw a ~420% increase at prices between $202 and $271. Q2 2015 saw a further ~27% increase at prices between $283 and $313. Last quarter saw an about-turn: ~23% reduction at prices between $253 and $323. This quarter saw a marginal increase. The stock is currently at $229 and the stake is still Paulsons largest at 11.16% of the portfolio.Note 1: In November 2015, Pfizer Inc. announced the acquisition of Allergan plc in a deal valued at $160B. Allergan shareholders were to receive 11.3 shares of a new company (Ireland domiciled - tax inversion deal structure) for each share held. The deal was called off last month following government pressure.Note 2: Q1 2015 had seen a ~260% increase in AGN (then Actavis). Part of that increase was due to the acquisition of Allergan by Actavis. Paulson held 6.37M shares of Allergan for which he received ~2.35M shares. That stake was established in Q2 2014 at prices between $117 and $174. Actavis plc agreed to acquire AGN in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $219 per share and that transaction closed in March 2015.Akorn Inc. (AKRX): The 0.64% AKRX position was first purchased last quarter at prices between $22.06 and $37.34 and increased by ~225% this quarter at prices between $18.72 and $38.52. The stock is now at $30.55.Cablevision Systems (CVC): CVC is now a very small 0.78% of the US long portfolio stake. It was first purchased between Q4 2012 and Q2 2013 at prices between $13.65 and $18.52. Q4 2014 saw an about-turn: ~29% reduction at prices between $17.24 and $21.32 and that was followed with a ~39% reduction the following quarter at prices between $17.72 and $20.76. In Q2 2015, the pattern reversed again: ~48% increase at prices between $17.95 and $25.86. The following quarter saw a ~37% reduction at prices between $22.59 and $33.13 and that was followed with another ~60% reduction last quarter at prices between $29.46 and $33.19. The stock currently trades at $34.64. There was a marginal increase this quarter.Note: In September 2015, Altice SA agreed to acquire CVC in a $34.90 all-cash deal.Grifols S A (GRFS): GRFS is a medium-sized 2.01% of the US long portfolio position. There was a ~30% reduction last quarter at prices between $15.20 and $17.79 while this quarter saw a ~41% increase at prices between $14.20 and $16.20. The stock is now at $14.84. The original stake is from 2011 and Paulsons cost-basis is very low.Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): MNK is a 4.05% of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $42 and $47.20. It was increased by ~20% in Q2 2014 at prices between $60.28 and $82.70 and an additional one-third the following quarter at prices between $68.12 and $90. Q1 2015 saw a ~6% trimming at prices between $93.89 and $133 and the following quarter saw another ~22% decrease at prices between $113 and $130. There was an about-turn last quarter: ~31% increase at prices between $53.41 and $76.66. The stock currently trades at $61.03. The current stake is at ~7% of the business. This quarter saw a very minor increase.Note: MNK, a July 2013 spinoff from Covidien plc (COV) started trading at around $42.Mylan Inc. (MYL): MYL is a top-three 8.21% of the US long portfolio position. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Q1 2013 saw a 25% reduction at prices between $27.54 and $31 and the following quarter saw another one-third reduction at prices between $28.70 and $32. Q4 2014 saw an about-turn: ~20% increase at prices between $45.27 and $58.62 and that was followed with a ~47% increase in Q2 2015 at prices between $57.94 and $76.06. The stock trades currently at $41.51. Last two quarters have seen minor increases.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): SHPG is a top-three stake at 9.06% of the US long portfolio. It was established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100. In Q2 2014, the stake was again increased by ~36% at prices between $142 and $236. The following quarter saw a whopping ~170% increase at prices between $232 and $263. In Q2 2015, the pattern reversed: ~15% reduction at prices between $227 and $260. The stock currently trades at $186. Last two quarters have seen minor increases.Note: In August 2015, SHPG made a hostile bid for Baxalta (BXLT), the Baxter (BAX) spin-off. In January this year, the businesses agreed on a $32B merger.Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA): TEVA was a very small 0.55% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q2 2015 at prices between $58.91 and $67.14. It was increased to a fairly large 5.28% position the following quarter at prices between $55 and $72. Last quarter saw a further ~13% increase at prices between $56 and $66. The stock currently trades at $51.94 and it is now a top-five stake at 8.15%. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, Teva is a good option to consider for further research. This quarter saw a very minor increase.Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): VRX position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Last quarter also saw another ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The stock currently trades at $27.56 and the stake is at 2.58% of the portfolio. This quarter also saw a marginal further increase.Endo International plc (ENDP): The very small ENDP stake was increased by almost 200% this quarter at prices between $28.27 and $61.22. The stock is now well below that range at $15.44. The stake is at ~2% of the portfolio.Kept Steady:Extended Stay America (STAY): STAY is a fairly large (top-five) 5.14% of the US long portfolio position. The stake came about as a result of the firms IPO in November 2013. STAY currently trades at $13.53 compared to the IPO offering price of $20.  Last quarter had seen a ~11% trimming. Paulson still controls ~21% of the business.Note: Extended Stay America filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, 2009 and an investment group consisting of Paulson & Company, Blackstone Group, and Centerbridge Partners bought Extended Stay America out of bankruptcy in October 2010. At the time of the 11/2013 IPO, the firms already made more than three times their investment.Realogy Holdings (RLGY): RLGY is a 1.40% of the US long portfolio (3.59% of the business) position that was reduced by ~56% over the five quarters thru Q4 2015 at prices between $35 and $49. The original investment was made prior to the October 2012 IPO. The stock currently trades at $30.78.CIT Group (CIT): CIT is a very small 0.80% of the portfolio position kept steady this quarter.Although the positions are relatively minute compared to the size of the portfolio, the following 13F stakes are significant as Paulson has sizable ownership: NovaCopper (NCQ), Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA), Radian Group (RDN), Oasis Petroleum (OAS), and Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP).Note: A Form 3 regulatory filing on 5/16/2016 shows Paulson owning 27.76M shares (~15% of the business) of Synergy Pharmaceuticals. This is compared to 11M shares in the 13F.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulsons US stock holdings in Q1 2016:13G/D/A, Form 3/4 Filings after 8/15/2015: Form 4 11/20/2015 - ESH Hospitality paired shares with STAY - 42.66M shares - 20.9% of the business.Note - 8/21/2015 - In the Q2 2015 Update, I removed the para near the end of the article that lists the very small positions. I might consider adding the names but not the symbols as SA errored out and their support could not determine the problem.Note - 8/13/2015 -  - Overseas Shipholding (OSGIQ) - 56.43M shares - 19.4% of business."