"Tracking John Paulsons Paulson & Company Portfolio  Q4 2013 Update"
"This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulsons US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulsons regulatory  filed on 02/14/2014. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  highlighting the funds moves during Q3 2013.This quarter, Paulsons US long portfolio increased ~30% from $15.52B to $20.30B. This is compared to a drop from $17.72B to $14.18B in Q2 2013 and an increase from $14.18B to $15.52B in Q3 2013. There are 87 13F securities in the portfolio although only 48 of them are significantly large holdings (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio). The top five holdings represent just over 40% of the US long assets - the portfolio has become a lot more concentrated as they represented only 26% of the US long assets last quarter. The largest holding is Extended Stay America, a new position at 9.43% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that story, check-out .Stake Disposals:Belo Corporation (BLC), Boise Inc. (BZ), Hillshire Brands (HSH), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), & W P Carey (WPC): These are very small positions (less than 1% of the US long portfolio) that were eliminated this quarter. As the position sizes were small, the activity does not indicate a clear bias.New Stakes:Extended Stay America (STAY): STAY is Paulsons largest 13F position at 9.43% of the US long portfolio. The stake came about as a result of the firms IPO in November 2013. Extended Stay America filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, 2009 and an investment group consisting of Paulson & Company, Blackstone Group, and Centerbridge Partners bought Extended Stay America out of bankruptcy in October 2010. The IPO has already made the firms more than three times their investment. It will be interesting to see whether Paulson will choose to hold on. STAY currently trades at $26.34 compared to the IPO offering price of $20.Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC): HMHC is a 3.38% of the US long portfolio position established this quarter as a result of its November 2013 IPO. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March 2012. Paulson held senior debt that got converted into equity. The IPO was priced at $12 per share and it currently trades at $19.43.Caesars Acquisition Company (CACQ): CACQ is a 0.96% of the US long portfolio stake established this quarter. Caesars Acquisition is a spin-off from Caesars Entertainment and the terms of the deal allowed existing shareholders to get CACQ shares at $9.43 (rights offering). Paulson probably took this option to establish the position. The stock currently trades at $12.98.Santarus Inc. (SNTS), American Airlines Group (AAL), Compuware Corporation (CPWR), and Digital Realty (DLR): These are small (less than 1.5% of the US long portfolio each) positions established this quarter. As the position sizes are small, the stake establishment does not indicate a clear bias. With regards to DLR, Jon Jacobsen pitched a short-thesis on the name in the  and the stock has been in an extended downturn since - Paulson is taking the other side with the long position.Stake Decreases:Aetna Inc. (AET) and Grifols S A (GRFS): These are medium-sized positions that were marginally decreased this quarter. The positions were built-up aggressively over several quarters. The marginal stake reductions this quarter do not indicate a change in bias.AMC Networks (AMCX): AMCX is a small 0.66% of the US long portfolio position first established in Q3 2011 at prices between $33 and $37.50. In Q2 2013, ~20% of the position was disposed of at prices between $60 and $68. This quarter, the position was reduced by two-thirds at prices between $62.61 and $72.35. The stock currently trades at $67.37. Paulson is harvesting huge long-term gains from this position.Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB): CTB is a minute 0.31% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q2 2013 at prices between $23.25 and $34.66. It was increased by ~9% last quarter at prices between $28.85 and $34. This quarter, the position was reduced by ~63% at prices between $21.62 and $33.22. The stock currently trades at $23.87. The original stake was a merger-arbitrage position (a subsidiary of Apollo Tyres agreed to acquire CTB in June 2013 at $35 per share). In December 2013, the merger was called off.Family Dollar Stores (FDO): FDO is a large 4.09% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2013 at prices between $54.87 and $64. It was increased by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $57.42 and $65.49. Last quarter saw further buying as the stake was increased by another ~50% at prices between $62 and $75. The pattern reversed this quarter as ~13% of the position was sold at prices between $63.58 and $72.95. The stock currently trades at $63.43. The about-turn indicates a mild bearish bias.Freeport McMoran (FCX): FCX is a 3.77% of the US long portfolio position that was increased by just over 70% in Q2 2013. The increase was due to the result of Freeports acquisition of Plains Exploration & Production and McMoran Exploration that closed in the quarter - Paulson held a 3.69% position in PXP and a 1.53% position in MMR, both established in Q4 2012 as risk-arbitrage stakes. The original FCX position was established in Q4 2012 at prices between $30.81 and $42.43 and had since been kept steady. The stock currently trades at $33.75 and this quarter saw a marginal stake reduction. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, FCX is a good option to consider for further research.M&T Bank (MTB), Interdigital Inc. (IDCC) & Interoil Corp. (IOC): These are very small positions (less than 1% of the US long portfolio) that were further reduced this quarter. As the position sizes are very small, the activity does not indicate a clear bias.MGM Resorts (MGM): MGM was a huge position established in Q2 2010 at prices between $9.48 and $15.89. It was reduced by ~30% in 2011 and since then had been kept relatively steady. Q2 2013 saw a ~10% trimming at prices between $12.06 and $15.86. Last quarter, the position was reduced further by ~12% at prices between $14.75 and $20.44 and this quarter saw a marginal stake reduction. The stock currently trades at $26.02. Paulson is harvesting long-term capital gains from this position.Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD): PXD is a 1.64% of the US long portfolio position that was reduced by 23% this quarter at prices between $179 and $225. The stock currently trades at $185.30. The original stake was established in Q4 2012 and doubled in Q1 2013 at prices between $102 and $131. Paulson has started to harvest gains from this position.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): SHPG is a 2.30% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100 and was kept steady last quarter. This quarter saw a ~11% stake reduction at prices between $113 and $139. The stock currently trades at $163.Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): TMO is a 3.37% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q2 2013 at prices between $75.53 and $88.76. It was reduced by ~18% this quarter at prices between $90 and $111. The stock currently trades at $124.T-Mobile USA (TMUS): The stake was acquired as a result of the reverse-merger and IPO transaction of MetroPCS with T-Mobile USA. MetroPCS was a 2.19% of the US long portfolio established in Q3 2012. This was a timely purchase for Paulson and he is sitting on large gains. The TMUS stake was increased by ~17% to a 3.25% of the US long portfolio position last quarter at prices between $23 and $26.12. This quarter saw a marginal stake reduction. The stock currently trades at $31.29.Anglogold Ashanti (AU): This 2.37% position was reduced marginally this quarter. Paulson continues to stay bullish on gold.Stake Increases:Caesars Entertainment (CZR): This is a 1.70% position that was increased by 5.2% this quarter at prices between $16.74 and $22.39. The stock currently trades at $22.78. The original holding is from prior to the 02/2012 IPO.Cobalt International Energy (CIE): CIE was a minute 0.12% of the US long portfolio stake as of Q1 2013. The position was increased to a substantial 2.63% stake in Q2 2013 at prices between $25 and $29. Last quarter saw a minor reversal, as ~17% of the position was sold at prices between $24.40 and $30.20. This quarter, the position was increased by 12.5% at prices between $22.49 and $25. The stock currently trades at $16.88 and the position stands at 1.39% of the US long portfolio. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, CIE is a good option to consider for further research.Equinix Inc. (EQIX): EQIX is a 2.39% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q2 2012 at prices between $147 and $175 and doubled in Q3 2012 at prices between $165 and $203. It had since been kept steady. Q2 2013 saw a reversal as the position was reduced by half at prices between $176 and $230. Last quarter saw a 20% stake increase at prices between $165 and $203 and that was followed-up with a 74% stake increase this quarter at prices between $155 and $184. The stock currently trades at $193. The aggressive stake build-up indicates a clear bullish bias.Oasis Petroleum (OAS): OAS was a very small 0.25% of the US long portfolio position as of last quarter. The stake was increased substantially to a 2.24% position this quarter at prices between $43 and $57. The stock currently trades below the low-end of that range at $42.45. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, OAS is a very good option to consider.Sprint Nextel (S): S was Paulsons largest position in Q2 2013 at 9.90% of the US long portfolio. The stake was established in Q4 2012 and doubled in Q1 2013. Last quarter, the position was reduced to a 2.27% position at prices between $5.50 and $7.25. This quarter saw a 13% stake increase at prices between $5.97 and $10.79. The stock currently trades at $8.40.Time Warner Cable (TWC): TWC is a large 5.22% of the US long portfolio stake established last quarter at prices between $107 and $118. The position was almost doubled this quarter at prices between $110 and $138. The stock currently trades at $146. The move worked almost immediately as Comcast (CMCSA) agreed to pay $158.82 per share in an all-stock deal (announced 2/14/2014).Vodafone Group (VOD): VOD was a very small 0.57% position as of Q2 2013. It was substantially increased to a 4.53% position last quarter at prices between $28.50 and $35.12. This quarter saw a ~76% stake increase at prices between $34.43 and $39.31. It is now his second-largest 13F position. The stock currently trades at $36.81. The aggressive stake build-up indicates a clear bullish bias.Whiting Petroleum (WLL): WLL was a very small 0.31% of the US long portfolio position last quarter. The stake was increased to a large 4.13% position this quarter at prices between $58 and $70. The stock currently trades near the low-end of that range at $60.76. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, WLL is a good option to consider.The rest of the positions were left untouched:SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulsons largest position by far at 19.03% of the US long portfolio as of Q1 2013. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 at prices between $116 and $155. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $82.71 and $97.80. It was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices and since then had been kept relatively steady. The stock currently trades at $127. The position was kept steady last two quarters and it is currently his third-largest 13F position at 7.66% of the US long portfolio.Cablevision Systems (CVC): CVC is a 2.43% of the US long portfolio stake that was first purchased in Q4 2012 at prices between $13.65 and $18.52. In Q1 2013, the position was increased by around one-third at prices between $13.76 and $15.75. Q2 2013 saw an additional 24% stake increase at prices between $13.93 and $16.82. It was kept steady in the last two quarters. The stock currently trades at $16.60.Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG): The 1.39% of the US long portfolio HIG position was first purchased in 2009. It was an activist position and Paulson pushed for changes at the company - in Q1 2012, he called to spin-off the P&C business which he argued will increase shareholder value by 60%. He experienced some limited success but in Q1 2013, the position was reduced by 40% at prices between $22.44 and $26.46 and the following quarter saw another 45% stake reduction at prices between $24.82 and $31.43. The stock currently trades at $34.67.Delphi Automotive (DLPH): DLPH position was reduced to a very small 0.57% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2013 at prices between $40.94 and $52.09. The position was established in 2011 as a result of conversion of Delphi Automotive debt to equity (at ~67c per share) as the firm emerged from bankruptcy. Paulson started harvesting the outsized gains from this position in Q1 2012 and a very small remainder position is what is left.Hess Corporation (HES): HES is a 2.49% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q1 2013 at prices between $53 and $73. The position was increased by around 73% in Q2 2013 at prices between $62.87 and $74.14. The stock currently trades at $79.50.Mylan Inc. (MYL): The 3.40% MYL stake was reduced by roughly one-third in Q2 2013 at prices between $28.70 and $32. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. The position was kept relatively steady until Q1 2013 when it was reduced by a quarter at prices between $27.54 and $31. It was kept steady last two quarters and the stock trades currently at $46.10.Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG): KOG was a very small 0.94% position purchased in Q2 2013 at prices between $7.47 and $9.60. It was almost doubled last quarter at prices between $8.42 and $12.06. The stock currently trades at $11.63 and the position is now at 1.88% of the US long portfolio. The stake build-up indicates a bullish bias.Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): MNK is a 1.90% of the US long portfolio position established last quarter at prices between $42 and $47.20. The stock currently trades at $67.21. Mallinckrodt is a $2.7B business that was spun-off from Covidien PLC (COV) on July 1, 2013 (one share of MNK for every eight shares of COV). Paulson took the position soon after - the stake is at just under 10% of the entire business.Realogy Holdings (RLGY): RLGY is 3.83% of the US long portfolio position that was kept steady this quarter. The original investment was made prior to the October 2012 IPO. The stock is currently trading at $46.86 and shows a return of around 40% since IPO.CNO Financial (CNO), Radian Group (RDN), Popular Inc. (BPOP), Bank of America (BAC) WTS: These 1 to 1.5% positions were left untouched this quarter. The sizes are very small to indicate any bias.William Lyon Homes (WLH), Novagold (NG), HCA Holdings (HCA), Capital One 2018 Warrants, Genworth Financial (GNW), & MGIC Investment (MTG): These are very small positions (less than 1% of the US long portfolio) that were left untouched this quarter.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulsons US stock holdings in Q4 2013:"