"Tracking John Paulson’s Paulson & Company Portfolio – Q4 2020 Update"
"John Paulson’s 13F portfolio value increased from $3.21B to $3.85B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are Horizon Therapeutics, Bausch Health, and Brightsphere Investment Group.The stake in Barrick Gold was more than doubled during the quarter.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulson’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulson’s regulatory  filed on 2/16/2021. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  for the fund’s moves during Q3 2020.This quarter, Paulson’s 13F portfolio value increased ~20% from $3.21B to $3.85B. There are 36 13F securities in the portfolio although only 26 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are Horizon Therapeutics, Bausch Health, Brightsphere Investment Group, SPDR Gold ETF, and Viatris, and they add up to ~54% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that, check-out the book “”. Last July, Paulson announced that they are returning all outside money and are converting to a Family Office structure.Note: Paulson & Company is known to have a huge position in Fannie/Freddie (FNMA) (FMCC) although the details have not been disclosed.Stake Disposals:Qiagen NV (QGEN): QGEN was a very small 0.65% of the portfolio position. It was a merger-arbitrage stake. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) had an agreement to acquire Qiagen NV for 43 Euros per share but that offer was terminated as Qiagen shareholders rejected the amended offer (the original offer was 39 Euros). Thermo Fisher received a reimbursement payment of $95M cash as per the terms of the acquisition agreement. The stake was disposed this quarter at prices between ~$46 and ~$55. Qiagen currently trades at $49.10 per share.Tiffany & Co (TIF): TIF was a ~2% merger-arbitrage stake. LVMH (LVMHF) acquired Tiffany in a transaction that closed in early January. The deal-price was negotiated down last October from $135 to $131.50 per share cash.New Stakes:Thryv Holdings (THRY), Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN), RealPage Inc. (RP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and SPDR Energy ETF (XLE): These are small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) new stakes established this quarter. Alexion and RealPage are merger-arbitrage stakes. Last December, Thoma Bravo agreed to acquire RealPage for $88.75 per share cash. AstraZeneca is buying Alexion in a cash-and-stock ($60 cash and 2.1243 AstraZeneca ADS’s for each share held) deal announced last December.Note: Regulatory filings since the quarter ended show them owning ~2.9M shares of Thryv Holdings (previously Dex Media). This is compared to 3.2M shares in the 13F report. Around 315K shares were sold at $27 per share. Paulson & Company still has a ~10% ownership stake in the business.Stake Decreases:AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 3.51% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Q4 2015 had seen a ~9% trimming while the following quarter saw a one-third reduction at prices between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $13 and $18. The stock is currently at $20.14. H1 2020 had seen a ~45% reduction at prices between $14 and $30. That was followed with a ~14% selling this quarter. Paulson is harvesting gains.Stake Increases:Horizon Pharmaceuticals (HZNP): HZNP is currently the top position at ~15% of the portfolio. It was purchased in Q2 2017 at prices between $9.65 and $15.75 and increased by ~40% in Q4 2017 at prices between $13 and $15. There was a ~23% stake increase in Q3 2019 at prices between $23 and $28. The stock is now at ~$91. Q2 2020 saw a ~16% selling at prices between $30 and $57 while this quarter saw a ~20% stake increase at prices between ~$67 and ~$84.SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): A huge stake in GLD was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $83 and $98 and was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 as well at prices between $116 and $155. Q4 2015 and the following quarter saw a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $100 and $122. Q1 2020 saw another ~55% selling at prices between $138 and $158. The stock currently trades at ~$161. The stake is still the fourth-largest at ~9% of the portfolio. This quarter saw a marginal increase.Endo International plc (ENDP): The 3.42% ENDP position saw a ~50% stake increase last quarter at prices between ~$2.75 and ~$3.65. That was followed with a 25% increase this quarter at prices between ~$3.35 and ~$7.20. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2015. Their original ~9.6M share position was built during the three quarters through Q1 2016 at a very high cost-basis compared to the current trading price of $6.85. The stake had wavered over the years.Note: Their ownership stake in the business is ~8%.Pacira Biosciences (PCRX): The 2.20% PCRX stake was built in Q2 & Q3 2019 at prices between $35.50 and $48 and it is now at $69.35. There was a ~25% reduction in Q2 2020 at prices between $31 and $53. This quarter saw a ~13% stake increase.Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Seabridge Gold (SA): These two stakes were more than doubled this quarter. The 2.20% GOLD stake saw a ~130% stake increase at prices between ~$22.50 and ~$29.50 and the stock is now below that range at $19.50. The small 0.86% SA position saw a ~125% increase this quarter at prices between ~$17 and ~$21 and it is now at $17.04.Kept Steady:Bausch Health Companies (BHC) previously Valeant Pharmaceuticals: BHC position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw a ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. Q2 2020 saw another ~25% stake increase at ~$16.50 per share. The stock currently trades at $32.56 and the stake has become the second-largest position in the portfolio at ~14%.BrightSphere Investment Group (BSIG): The large (top three) ~10% BSIG stake was built in Q4 2018 at prices between $10 and $13.30. Q1 2019 saw a huge ~285% stake increase at prices between $11 and $14.25. The stock currently trades at $18.90.Note: Paulson’s ownership stake in BSIG is ~25%.Viatris (VTRS) previously Mylan Inc. (MYL): VTRS stake is now at 5.58% of the portfolio. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Last significant buying was in Q2 2015: ~50% increase at prices between $58 and $76. 2017 & 2018 had seen a ~50% selling at prices between $30.50 and $47. The stock currently trades at $13.88.NovaGold Resources (NG): NG is a 5.58% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling in Q4 2016. Q1 2020 saw a ~15% stake increase at prices between $5.87 and $9.51 while next quarter saw a ~12% trimming at prices between $7.40 and $12. The stock is currently at $8.40.Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~7% of the business.Takeda Pharma (TAK): The large 5.34% TAK stake came about as a result of Takeda’s Shire plc acquisition in a cash-and-stock deal ($90.99 cash and 5.034 shares of TAK for each share of SHPG held). Paulson had a ~10% portfolio stake in Shire plc for which he received these shares after that transaction closed last January. Takeda currently trades at $17.71.Discovery Communications (DISCA): DISCA position saw a 320% stake increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $21.50 and $26.50. That was followed with a ~140% further increase next quarter at prices between $21 and $24. H1 2020 had seen a ~37% reduction at prices between $18.25 and $32.75. DISCA currently trades at $61.45 and the stake is now at 4.69% of the portfolio.Dish Network (DISH): DISH is a ~3% portfolio position established in Q1 2017 at prices between $58 and $64. Q2 & Q3 2017 saw a combined ~36% stake increase at prices between $52 and $66. The stock is currently well below the low end of those ranges at $33.64. Q2 2020 saw a ~27% selling at prices between $18.70 and $37.30.International Tower Hill Mines (THM): THM is a 2.22% of the portfolio stake established in the 2013-2015 timeframe at a very low cost-basis. Around 2.34M shares were purchased at an average cost of ~$1.40 last quarter. The stock is now at $1.17.Note: Paulson has a ~32% ownership stake in International Tower Hill Mines.Kirkland Lake Gold (KL): KL is a ~2% of the portfolio position established in Q1 2020 at prices between $23 and $45 and the stock currently trades at $33.05.ViacomCBS (VIAC): Paulson had a small ~1% of the portfolio stake in Viacom as of Q3 2019. Following the ViacomCBS merger transaction, they increased the stake substantially at prices between $35.50 and $42.75. The stock currently trades at ~$71. The position was reduced by ~75% in Q2 2020 at prices between $12.40 and $28.50. The stake is now at 1.52% of the portfolio.Pretium Resources (PVG): PVG is a very small 0.72% of the portfolio stake purchased in Q4 2019 at prices between $8.70 and $12.50 and the stock currently trades at $9.94.Equinox Gold Corp (EQX), SSR Mining Inc. (SSR), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ): These very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were kept steady this quarter.Note: Paulson has a ~7.3% ownership stake in Overseas Shipbuilding Group (OSG). As a percentage of the portfolio, the position is minutely small.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulson’s US stock holdings in Q4 2020:Regulatory filings thru 11/20/2020: Form 3 – 9/25 – Thryv Holdings (formerly DexMedia Holdings) – THRY – 3.22M shares. Form 4, 13D/A – 9/4 – THM – 2.34M shares acquired at $1.4 – 61.93M shares total (32% of the business)."