"Tracking Dan Loeb’s Third Point Portfolio – Q1 2021 Update"
"Dan Loeb's 13F portfolio value increased from ~$13B to $14.83B this quarter. The number of positions increased from 73 to 125.Third Point added Paysafe, CoStar Group, & Uber Technologies while dropping Alibaba Group Holdings & Fidelity National Information Services.The top three positions are at ~23% of the portfolio: Upstart Holdings, PG&E Corp, and Walt Disney.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Dan Loeb’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Third Point’s regulatory  filed on 5/14/2021. Please visit our  to get an idea of their investment philosophy and our  for the fund’s moves during Q4 2020.This quarter, Loeb’s 13F portfolio value increased ~14% from ~$13B to $14.83B. The 13F portfolio is very concentrated with the top three holdings accounting for ~23% of the entire portfolio. The number of holdings increased from 73 to 125 as they added several very small stakes in SPACs. 41 of the holdings are significantly large (more than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) and they are the focus of this article. The largest five individual stock positions are Upstart Holdings, PG&E, Walt Disney, Danaher Corp, and Paysafe Limited.Third Point returned 13% thru April this year compared to 11.8% for the S&P 500 Index. Annualized returns since December 1996 inception are at 15.1% compared to 9.1% for the S&P 500 Index. AUM is distributed among several strategies of which the long/short equity portion is the majority: of the 79.2% net portfolio exposure, 118.6% (over 100% due to leverage) is the net-long equity portion. In addition to partner stakes, Third Point also invests the float of Sirius Point (SPNT) and capital from London listed closed-end fund Third Point Offshore (TPNTF). To know more about Dan Loeb's Third Point, check-out his letters to shareholders at their site. His activist investing style is covered in the book "".Note 1: it was reported in December that Third Point had built a ~$1B activist stake in Intel (INTC). The 13F report only shows a ~$60M stake. So, it is likely that the rest of the position is through derivative instruments which are outside the scope of 13Fs.Note 2: although the positions relative to the size of the portfolio are very small, they have significant ownership stakes in the following businesses: 4.4% of Kadmon Holdings (KDMN) and 5.6% of Global Blue (GB). In addition, they have significant ownership stakes in several SPACs:Note 3: Large equity investments not in the 13F report include Sony (SONY), EssilorLuxottica (ESLOY), and Nestle (NSRGY). All three are activist stakes. SONY is a $1.5B investment made in June 2019 when the stock was trading at around $50 per share. It is currently at ~$100. The ESLOY investment was made in early 2019 when the stock was trading at ~$62.50 per share. It currently trades at ~$88. The NSRGY position is from 2017 and the stock has rallied ~60% since. Also, they have a significant portfolio of investments thru their venture firm . Such stakes include investments in SentinelOne, Yellowbrick Data, Aryaka, Kentik, Kumu Networks, Ushur, etc.New Stakes:Paysafe Limited (PSFE): PSFE is a 3.78% of the portfolio position established this quarter at ~$10 per share as Third Point led the PIPE of this de-SPAC. The stock currently trades at $11.22.Note 1: their PaySafe investment thesis is that as US is poised to become the largest online gambling market globally, PaySafe is positioned well to take advantage.Note 2: Third Point is also leading the PIPE of Fintech V (FTCV) which is merging with eToro in a de-SPAC deal. Third Point’s thesis per Q4 report is that eToro has a long growth runway and diversified income streams (equities, commodities, currencies, and crypto). Also, they should benefit from entry into the US.CoStar Group (CSGP): CSGP is a ~3% of the portfolio position purchased this quarter at prices between ~$759 and ~$940 and the stock currently trades at $854.Note: their investment thesis is that CoStar Group’s Ten-X acquisition should result in a second tailwind – “Bloomberg of CRE” to also be “Nasdaq of CRE” – cross-selling should result in revenue growth acceleration to 20% and EBITDA growth from 20% to 30% over time.Uber Technologies (UBER) and Dupont De Nemours (DD): UBER is a 2.48% of the portfolio position purchased this quarter at prices between ~$48 and ~$63 and the stock currently trades near the low end of that range at $50.83. The 1.39% of the portfolio stake in DD was established at prices between ~$69 and ~$86 and it is now at $84.59.Note: Ride-sharing is a popular theme in Third Point’s portfolio. They had a successful exit from Lyft (LYFT) and currently has stakes in Didi and Grab Holdings. The stake in Grab Holdings goes back to funding rounds from 2016. Also, they have a position in Altimeter Growth (AGC) both from purchasing equity and committing to participation in the PIPE - AGC is merging with Grab Holdings in the largest de-SPAC deal announced so far.Shopify (SHOP), Suncor Energy (SU), and Carvana (CVNA): These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes established this quarter.Stake Disposals:Adobe Systems (ADBE): ADBE was a 1.75% stake that saw a ~75% increase in Q2 2018 at prices between $212 and $258 and another ~30% increase next quarter at prices between $242 and $275. There was a ~30% selling in Q1 2020 at prices between $285 and $383. Last quarter saw another ~30% selling at prices between ~$445 and ~$514. The elimination this quarter was at prices between ~$421 and ~$502. The stock is now at ~$505.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA): BABA was a 2.51% of the portfolio position established in Q2 2020 at prices between $187 and $229 and the stock currently trades at ~$214. Q3 2020 saw a ~25% stake increase at prices between ~$216 and ~$298. Last quarter saw similar selling at prices between ~$222 and ~$317. The disposal this quarter was at prices between ~$223 and ~$271.Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): The 2.33% FIS position came about as a result of FIS acquiring WorldPay in a cash-and-stock transaction (0.9287 FIS shares and $11 cash for each share held) that closed in July 2019. Third Point had a ~3% of the portfolio (2.2M shares) position in WorldPay. It was established in the 2017-2018 timeframe at a cost-basis of ~$70 per share. The resultant FIS stake was also increased by ~25% in Q3 2019 at prices between $125 and $140. Q2 2020 saw another ~37% stake increase at prices between ~$115 and ~$143. Last quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between ~$124 and ~$151. The elimination this quarter was at prices between ~$123 and ~$146. It currently trades at ~$149.Salesforce.com (CRM): The 1.54% CRM position was more than doubled in Q4 2018 at prices between $121 and $160. Q3 2019 saw the position almost doubled again at prices between $140 and $160. H1 2020 had seen a ~37% selling at prices between $124 and $192. That was followed with a similar reduction last quarter at prices between ~$220 and ~$267. The disposal this quarter was at prices between ~$205 and ~$249. The stock is now at ~$238.Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS): The 1.22% EXPE position was established in Q3 2020 at prices between ~$80 and ~$103 and it is now well above that range at ~$177. There was a ~25% selling last quarter at prices between ~$90 and ~$132. The position was disposed this quarter at prices between ~$123 and ~$185. PINS was a 0.51% stake purchased at prices between ~$23 and ~$45 and the stock currently trades at $65.30. The stake was reduced by ~70% last quarter at prices between ~$43 and ~$73. The elimination this quarter was at prices between ~$62 and ~$89.Planet Fitness (PLNT), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) and Nike Inc. (NKE): These three small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were disposed during the quarter.Stake Increases:Intuit Inc. (INTU): INTU is a ~3% of the portfolio stake built over the last four quarters at prices between ~$218 and ~$422. The stock currently trades at ~$439.Microsoft Corp (MSFT): The 2.54% of the portfolio MSFT stake was purchased in Q3 2020 at prices between ~$200 and ~$232. Last two quarters have seen a ~60% stake increase at prices between ~$200 and ~$245. The stock currently trades at ~$250.S&P Global (SPGI): SPGI is a 2.38% stake established in Q2 2016 at prices between $96 and $128. The position has wavered. Recent activity follows: the five quarters thru Q1 2019 saw a combined ~60% selling at prices between $164 and $213. There was a ~30% stake increase over the last two quarters at prices between ~$306 and ~$379. The stock is now at ~$380.Aptiv plc (APTV), Estee Lauder (EL), Leslie’s Inc. (LESL), RH Inc. (RH), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Zillow Group (Z): These small (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) stakes were increased this quarter.Stake Decreases:PG&E Corp (PCG): PCG is currently the second-largest 13F stake at 6.55% of the portfolio. Third Point’s Q2 2020 letter had the following regarding the investment in PG&E – the position came about as a result of participating in a PIPE (terms for the exit financing called for up to $10.50 per share purchase price). They believed the stock was undervalued as there are several risk mitigation measures in place – wildfire fund (insurance against wildfires), $3B per year investments in wildfire safety, ESG plans, etc. The stock currently trades at $10.14. There was minor trimming this quarter.Walt Disney (DIS): DIS is currently the third-largest 13F position at 5.23% of the portfolio. It was purchased in Q1 2020 at prices between $85 and $148. Next quarter saw a ~300% stake increase at prices between $94 and $127. The stock currently trades at ~$179. There was a ~13% trimming this quarter.Danaher Corp. (DHR): The top five 4.40% DHR stake was established in Q3 2015 at prices between $60.90 and $71.50 and increased by two-thirds in Q1 2016 at prices between $62 and $74. There was a ~20% stake increase in Q1 2019 at prices between $98 and $132 while the H1 2020 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $129 and $177. It currently trades at ~$256. This quarter saw minor trimming.Note: The prices quoted above are adjusted for the Fortive (FTV) spin-off in July 2016.IAA Inc. (IAA): IAA is a 3.23% of the portfolio stake established in Q4 2019 at prices between $36 and $47. Q2 2020 saw a ~63% stake increase at prices between $25 and $45. IAA is a June 2019 spinoff of the salvage auction business of KAR Auctions (KAR). It started trading at ~$40 and currently goes for $57. There was a ~12% trimming this quarter.Note: they own ~6% of the business.Burlington Stores (BURL): The ~3% portfolio stake in BURL was established in Q2 2019 at prices between $146 and $177. The position saw a ~115% stake increase next quarter at prices between $168 and $205. Q1 2020 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $121 and $248 while next quarter there was a similar increase at prices between $141 and $217. Q3 2020 also saw a ~20% stake increase at prices between ~$171 and ~$217. The stock currently trades at ~$323. There was a ~10% trimming this quarter.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG): GOOG is a 2.92% of the portfolio position purchased last quarter at prices between ~$1453 and ~$1828 and the stock is now well above that range at $2412. There was a ~20% reduction this quarter at prices between ~$1728 and ~$2138.Charter Communications (CHTR): The 2.70% CHTR position was established in Q1 2020 at prices between $372 and $543 and increased by ~150% next quarter at prices between $424 and $547. It is now at ~$695. This quarter saw a ~13% trimming.Visa Inc. (V): The 2.14% Visa stake was established in Q2 2018 at prices between $118 and $136. The stock is now well above that range at ~$227. H1 2020 had seen a ~17% reduction at prices between $136 and $213 while next quarter there was a ~25% stake increase at prices between ~$189 and ~$217. This quarter saw minor trimming.Amazon.com (AMZN): AMZN is a 2.38% of the portfolio position purchased in Q4 2019 at prices between $1705 and $1870. The stake saw a ~200% increase in Q1 2020 at prices between $1677 and $2170. The stock is now well above those ranges at ~$3223. There was a ~30% selling last quarter at prices between ~$3005 and ~$3444. This quarter saw another ~20% reduction at prices between ~$2951 and ~$3380.JD.com (JD) and Facebook Inc. (FB): These two positions were purchased in Q2 2020. JD is a 1.88% of the portfolio stake established at prices between $40 and $62 and the stock currently trades at ~$74. There was a ~35% stake increase in Q3 2020 at prices between ~$60 and ~$83 while last quarter saw a ~25% selling at prices between ~$76 and ~$93. There was a ~3% trimming this quarter. The ~2% FB position was purchased at prices between $154 and $242 and the stock is now at ~$329. Q3 2020 saw a one-third stake increase at prices between ~$230 and ~$304. There was a ~9% trimming this quarter.Ferrari NV (RACE): RACE is now a 1.39% of the portfolio position. A small position was purchased in Q4 2019. H2 2020 saw the stake built at prices between ~$130 and ~$180. The stock currently trades at ~$211.  This quarter saw a ~9% trimming.Black Knight Inc. (BKI), CarMax Inc. (KMX), Equitrans Midstream (ETRN), Global Blue Group Holding AG (GB), and Jaws Acquisition (JWS): These very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were decreased during the quarter.Kept Steady:Upstart Holdings (UPST): UPST is currently the largest position at ~11% of the portfolio. Third Point’s original position goes back to a Series C funding round in 2015 when the business was valued at ~$180M. They also added 1.2M shares in the December IPO. UPST started trading at ~$44 and currently goes for ~$148.Note: They have a ~15% stake in Upstart Holdings and are sitting on gains of over 7x from ~$200M in total investments (~$66M six years ago and ~$140M at IPO).Iqvia Holdings (IQV): The 2.36% IQV position was purchased in Q3 2018 at prices between $99 and $131 and increased by ~25% in Q3 2019 at prices between $143 and $162. The stock currently trades at ~$240.Avantor Inc. (AVTR): The 2.15% AVTR stake was established in Q3 2020 at prices between ~$17 and ~$23 and increased by ~235% last quarter at prices between ~$22.50 and ~$28. The stock currently trades at $32.15.TransDigm Group (TDG): The 1.92% TDG stake was purchased in Q3 2020 at prices between ~$411 and ~$519 and it is currently well above that range at ~$649. There was a ~12% stake increase last quarter.TE Connectivity (TEL): The 1.35% TEL stake was established in Q1 2020 at prices between $53 and $100 and it is now at ~$136.Catalent Inc. (CTLT) and ContextLogic (WISH): These very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were kept steady this quarter.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Loeb’s 13F stock holdings in Q1 2021:Source: John Vincent. Data constructed from Third Point’s 13F filings for Q4 2020 and Q1 2021.Q4 2020 Letter, Feb Report, etc -  .: Performance: thru February 4.1% vs 1.7% for S&P 500 index. 14.8% since 1996 inception vs 8.9% for S&P 500 Index. Exposure: 161.3% long and 44.5% short for a net exposure of 116.8% as of February. Intel – expects Gelsinger to regain Intel’s position as the premier microprocessor vendor in the world – TAM is enormous and Intel’s resources are unmatched – excited to be long-term holders. Prudential – Asian franchise is substantially undervalued. Upstart Holdings – placed a 10% order of the IPO in December 2020 (1.2M shares for $145M) – led Series C in 2015 & board membership ($180M valuation) – accurate pricing of risk in personal loan origination and now auto loans – at $80 peak valuation was close to $6B. Commentary focused on Third Point Ventures investments (Yellowbrick Data, Aryaka, Kentik, Kumu Networks, Ushur) and specifically two unicorns – SentinelOne and Upstart.Regulatory filings thru 3/6/2021: Form 4 – 3/5 – Radius Global Infrastructure – RADI - ~4.5K disposed at 12.42 - ~4.5M shares remain, 13G – 2/12 – 6M shares – 10% of business, Form 3 – 12/31 – 4.5M shares and wts to acquire 1.5M shares @ 11.5. 13Gs – 2/12 – RTP – 1.2M shares – 5.2%, UPST – 13.38M shares – 18.4% of business, Jaws Spitfire – SPFR – 2.15M shares – 8.7% of business, Form 4 & 3 – 12/22 – 1.2M shares @ 20 – 13.38M shares total, the first 12.18M shares are the Series C convertible preferred shares. JWS – 1.98M shares – 2.88% of business, IAA – 9.23M shares – 6.9% of business, GOAC – 3M shares – 5.2% of business."