"Tracking John Paulsons Paulson & Company Portfolio  Q4 2016 Update"
"John Paulsons U.S. long portfolio decreased from $9.23B to $7.93B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are Mylan NV, Allergan plc, and Shire plc.Paulson added Time Warner while reducing American International Group and dropping Grifols SA during the quarter.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulsons US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulsons regulatory  filed on 02/14/2017. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  for the funds moves during Q3 2016.This quarter, Paulsons US long portfolio decreased ~14% from $9.23B to $7.93B. There are 103 13F securities in the portfolio although only 33 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are Mylan NV, Allergan plc, Shire plc, Teva Pharmaceuticals, and SPDR Gold ETF and they add up to ~43% of the portfolio. The largest holding is Mylan at ~10% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that story, check-out .Stake Disposals:Grifols S A (GRFS): GRFS was a minutely small 0.43% of the US long portfolio position as of last quarter. The original stake was from 2011 and Paulsons cost-basis was very low. Last two quarters had seen a combined ~80% selling at ~$16 and the disposal this quarter was at prices between $14 and $16.50. The stock is now at $17.40. Paulson harvested long-term gains.New Stakes:Time Warner Inc. (TWX), Harman International (HAR), and B/E Aerospace (BEAV): These three are new merger-arbitrage positions established this quarter. AT&T (T) reached a deal last October to acquire Time Warner in a $107.50 half-cash half-stock deal. The stock currently trades at $96.48. In November, Samsung agreed to acquire Harman International in a $112 per share all-cash deal. The stock is now at $111.  Rockwell Collins (COL) agreed to acquire B/E Aerospace in a $62 per share cash-and-stock deal ($34.50 cash) in October. BEAV is now at $62.83.Note: BEAV had a previous roundtrip: BEAV is a ~0.5% of the portfolio stake purchased in Q1 2016 at prices between $38 and $47 and reduced by two-thirds the following quarter at prices between $42.50 and $50. The stake was disposed last quarter was at prices between $45 and $52.International Seaways (INSW): INSW is a spinoff from Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) that started regular-way trading in December at ~$15 per share. It is now at $18.51.Note: Paulson controls 12.6% of International Seaways.Stake Decreases:Mylan Inc. (MYL): MYL is currently the largest position at 10.34% of the portfolio. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Q1 2013 saw a 25% reduction at prices between $27.50 and $31 and the following quarter saw another one-third reduction at prices between $29 and $32. Q4 2014 saw an about-turn: ~20% increase at prices between $45 and $59 and that was followed with a ~47% increase in Q2 2015 at prices between $58 and $76. The stock trades currently at $42.05. Last three quarters saw minor trimming. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, MYL is a good option to consider for further research.Allergan plc (AGN): AGN was a minutely small 0.29% of the US long portfolio position in Q2 2014. The following two quarters saw a ~420% increase at prices between $202 and $271. Q2 2015 saw a further ~27% increase at prices between $283 and $313. In Q4 2015 there was an about-turn: ~23% reduction at prices between $253 and $323. Q2 2016 saw another ~26% selling at prices between $202 and $278. The stock is currently at $247 and the stake is still Paulsons second-largest at ~10% of the portfolio. There was a ~8% trimming this quarter.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): SHPG is a top-three stake at ~9 % of the US long portfolio. It was established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100. In Q2 2014, the stake was again increased by ~36% at prices between $142 and $236. The following quarter saw a whopping ~170% increase at prices between $232 and $263. In Q2 2015, the pattern reversed: ~15% reduction at prices between $227 and $260. Q2 2016 saw a ~26% reduction at prices between $165 and $192 and that was followed with a ~11% selling last quarter at prices between $184 and $207. The stock currently trades at $181. There was a ~8% further trimming this quarter.Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA): TEVA was a very small 0.55% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q2 2015 at prices between $59 and $67. It was increased to a fairly large 5.28% position the following quarter at prices between $55 and $72. Q4 2015 saw a further ~13% increase at prices between $56 and $66. The stock currently trades at $35.20 and it is a now a large stake at ~7%. Q2 2016 saw a ~19% reduction at prices between $48.50 and $57. That was followed with very minor trimming in the last two quarters. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, TEVA is a good option to consider for further research.SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulsons largest position by far at ~19% of the US long portfolio as of Q1 2013. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $83 and $98 and was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 as well at prices between $116 and $155. Q4 2015 saw a ~38% reduction at prices between $100 and $114 and that was followed with a ~17% selling the following quarter at prices between $102 and $122. The stock currently trades at ~$118. This quarter also saw a ~9% trimming. The remaining stake is still a top five stake at ~6% of the portfolio.Extended Stay America (STAY): STAY is a fairly large ~6% of the US long portfolio position. The stake came about as a result of the firms IPO in November 2013. STAY currently trades at $17.43 compared to the IPO offering price of $20.  Q4 2015 had seen a ~11% trimming at prices between $16 and $19 and that was followed with another ~12% reduction last quarter at ~$14. There was another ~25% reduction this quarter at prices between $13 and $17.Note 1: Paulson controls 14.6% of the business.Note 2: Extended Stay America filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, 2009 and an investment group consisting of Paulson & Company, Blackstone Group, and Centerbridge Partners bought Extended Stay America out of bankruptcy in October 2010. At the time of the 11/2013 IPO, the firms already made more than three times their investment.American International Group (AIG): AIG is a fairly large ~4% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q1 2015 at prices between $49 and $56. Q4 2015 saw a ~20% reduction at prices between $57 and $64 and the following quarter saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $49 and $58. There was a ~50% further selling this quarter at prices between $57 and $67. The stock currently trades at $62.50.Akorn Inc. (AKRX): The 2.39% AKRX position was first purchased in Q4 2015 at prices between $22 and $37.50 and increased by ~225% the following quarter at prices between $18.50 and $38.50. The stock is now at $21.78. Last three quarters have seen minor trimming.Note: Paulson controls ~7% of Akorn Inc.Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP): The ~2% SGYP position saw a ~150% increase in Q2 2016 at prices between $2.50 and $4. There was a ~13% reduction last quarter at ~$5.60 and the stock currently trades at $6.07. There was a marginal reduction this quarter.Note: Paulson controls 13.4% of the business.Endo International plc (ENDP): A very small ENDP stake was increased by almost 200% in Q1 2016 at prices between $28 and $61. Last two quarters had seen a combined ~18% reduction at prices between $17 and $43. The stock is now at $13.08. The stake is at 1.63% of the portfolio. There was a marginal further reduction this quarter.Novagold (NG): NG is a small 1.28% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling this quarter. The stock is currently at $6.04.Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~7% of the business.Office Depot (ODP): ODP is a very small ~1% stake. It was doubled in Q2 2016 at prices between $3 and $8. The stock is now at $4.54. Last two quarters saw marginal trimming.Note: Office Depot stock price dropped sharply in May 2016 after the merger deal with Staples (SPLS) was scuttled by a federal judge.Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): HPE is a ~1% portfolio position purchased last quarter at prices between $18 and $23. This quarter saw a ~50% selling at prices between $21 and $24.79. The stock is now at $24.40.Dell Technologies (DVMT): DVMT is a very small ~0.75% of the portfolio stake established last quarter. The VMWare (VMW) tracking stock came about as a result of Dells deal for EMC Corporation. Paulson had ~10.5M shares of EMC for which he received ~1M shares of DVMT in the ration 1:0.111 along with $24.05 per share in cash. There was a marginal trimming this quarter.Note: DVMT currently trades at $64.59, a wide discount to VMW which is trading at $91.22.American Capital Ltd. (ACAS) and Biogen Inc. (BIIB): These two positions saw ~80% reductions this quarter and now are minutely small 0.20% stakes. BIIB had seen a huge 150% increase last quarter. The quick about-turn indicates a bearish bias.Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Oasis Petroleum (OAS), VMWare Inc. (VMW), TIM Participacoes (TSU), and Bank of America (BAC) warrants: These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes reduced this quarter.Stake Increases:Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): MNK is a ~5% of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $42 and $47. Q2 & Q3 2014 saw a combined 55% increase at prices between $60 and $90. There was some selling in H1 2015: ~28% reduction at prices between $94 and $130. Q4 2015 saw the patter reverse: ~31% increase at prices between $53 and $77. The stock currently trades at $54.74. Last two quarters had seen a combined ~11% reduction at prices between $54 and $83. There was a marginal increase this quarter.Note 1: Paulson controls ~7.5% of the business.Note 2: MNK, a July 2013 spinoff from Covidien plc started trading at around $42. Covidien plc in turn was acquired by Medtronic (MDT) in January 2015.Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): VRX position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw another ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. The stock currently trades at $16.04 and the stake is at ~3.5% of the portfolio. There was marginal trimming last quarter and a minor increase this quarter.Note: Paulson controls 5.6% of Valeant Pharmaceuticals.Kept Steady:AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 2.23% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Q4 2015 had seen a ~9% trimming while the following quarter saw a further one-third reduction at prices between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $13 and $18. The stock currently trades at $12.90. Last quarter saw marginal trimming.Note: Paulson controls ~3% of AngloGold Ashanti.Caesars Acquisition (CACQ) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR): Paulson has significant ~10% ownership stakes in each of CACQ and CZR. Last quarter had seen minor trimming.Realogy Holdings (RLGY): RLGY is a 1.55% of the US long portfolio position that was reduced by two-thirds over the six quarters thru Q2 2016 at prices between $28 and $49. The original investment was made prior to the October 2012 IPO. The stock currently trades at $27.19.Note: Paulson controls ~3% of Realogy Holdings.Randgold Resources (GOLD) and William Lyon Homes (WLH): These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes kept steady this quarter.Although the relative position sizes are minute, the following 13F stakes are significant as Paulson has sizable ownership: Cobalt International Energy (CIE), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Enzymotec Ltd. (ENZY), and International Tower Hill Mines (THM).The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulsons US stock holdings in Q4 2016:13G/D/A, Form 3/4 filings thru 11/19/2016: SGYP - 11/8/2016 Form 4 - 24.09M shares - 140K sold at $4.424. 9/29/2016 Form 4 - ~54K shares sold at ~$5.70. 9/16/2016 - Form 4 - ~2.5M shares sold @ $5.61. Form 3/A - 27.76M shares. STAY & ESH Hospitality paired - 10/4/0216 Form 4 & 13D/A - 37.68M shares - ~5M disposed @ $14.16 - 19% of business. TMQ - 9/29/2016 Form 4 - ~11K sold @ $0.55.13G/D/A, Form 3/4 filings thru 8/20/2016: OSG - 6/29/2016 Form 4, 13/D/A - 10.3M shares. disposal at $10.82 - 15.9%. NCQ - 6/6/2016 Form 4 - 11.62M shares.13G/D/A, Form 3/4 filings thru 5/20/2016: SGYP - 5/16/2016 Form 3 - 27.76M shares. NG - 4/13/2016 Form 4 - 1.13M shares disposed at $6.15. Owns 31,822,743. 4/6/2016 Form 4 disposals at upwards of $5.34. OSG - 3/21/2016 13D/A - 62.94M shares - 17.9%.13G/D/A, Form 3/4 filings thru 2/19/2016: NG - 2/16/2016 Form 4 - 2/11/2016 100K disposed at $4.72. CIE - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 39.75M shares - 9.59%. NCQ - 2/16/2016 13G/A -14.6M shares - 13.92%. RLGY- 2/16/2016 13G/A -5.26M shares - 3.59%. WLL - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 3.19M shares - 1.56%. VNDA - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 3.95M shares - 9.22%. POST - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 4.1M shares - 6.61%. Repsol Oil & Gas - 2/16/2016 13G/A -0. AU - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 22.89M shares - 5.65%. MNK - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 8.62M shares - 7.44%. Popular - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 0. RDN - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 1.17M shares - 0.56%. OAS - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 5.37M shares - 3.86%. CZR - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 14.56M shares - 9.98%. GULTU - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 0. CVC - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 3.09M shares - 1.39%. HMHC - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 1.4M shares - 1.04% thru warrants. CACQ - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 13.16M shares - 9.59%. SGYP - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 9M shares - 7.92%. LIVN - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 3.56M shares - 7.29%. HOT - 2/16/2016 13G/A - 11.6M shares - 6.87%. DXMM - 1/4/2016 13D/A - 1.35M shares - 7.7%."