"Tracking Dan Loeb’s Third Point Portfolio – Q4 2014 Update"
"Loeb's 13F portfolio increased ~27% this quarter from $8.71B to $11.09B. The number of positions decreased from 41 to 40.Third Point substantially increased large stakes in Actavis plc, Alibaba Group, Amgen Inc., and eBay Inc. while reducing Dow Chemical and Ally Financial.The top-three positions are Amgen Inc. (15.34%), Alibaba Group (9.38%), and Dow Chemical (9.05%) which together is at around one-third of the entire portfolio.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Dan Loeb’s US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Third Point’s regulatory  filed on 02/13/2015. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  for the fund’s moves during Q3 2014.The 13F portfolio is very concentrated with the top-three holdings accounting for 33.76% of the entire portfolio. Recent 13F reports show around 40+ long positions. This quarter, Loeb’s US long portfolio increased ~27% from $8.71B to $11.09B. The number of holdings decreased from 41 to 40. Largest five individual stock positions are Amgen Inc., Alibaba Group, Dow Chemical, Actavis plc, and Ally Financial. As per their Q4 2014 investor letter, Third Point’s 2014 return was 5.7%. Annualized return since December 1996 (inception) is at 17.5%.New Stakes:American International Group (AIG): AIG is a 1.77% of the US long portfolio stake established this quarter at prices between $49.40 and $56.51. The stock currently trades at $53.96. Loeb is reentering the stock after a quarter’s gap: At the end of 2012, AIG was a huge stake at 12% of the US long portfolio. 18.5M shares were purchased during that year at prices between $23 and $35. Loeb realized large gains from that stake exiting at prices between $35 and $56.33.Citigroup Inc. (C): C is a 2.44% of the US long portfolio position established this quarter at prices between $49.68 and $56.37. The stock currently trades at $51.20.Hertz Global (HTZ): HTZ is a very small 0.93% of the US long portfolio stake established this quarter at prices between $19.38 and $25.47. The stock currently trades at $23. Third Point is reentering the position after a quarter’s gap: A 2.96% HTZ position was previously purchased in Q4 2013 at prices between $21.35 and $28.50. Last quarter, that stake was eliminated at prices between $25.39 and $31.56.Phillips 66 (PSX): PSX is a medium-sized 3.23% of the US long portfolio position established this quarter at prices between $65 and $81.31. The stock currently trades at $76.62. The substantial stake establishment indicates a clear bullish bias.Delta Air Lines (DAL) & EMC Corporation (EMC): DAL & EMC are small (less than 2% of the portfolio each) positions established this quarter. The DAL position was established at prices between $30.90 and $49.23 and the stock currently trades at $44.50. The EMC position was purchased at prices between $26.89 and $30.89 and the stock currently trades at $27.99.Allergan Inc. (AGN), Mohawk Industries (MHK) & SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY): These are very small (less than 1% of the portfolio each) positions established this quarter. AGN is a 0.77% of the US long portfolio position established at prices between $177 and $214. Actavis plc agreed to acquire Allergan in November 2014 in a cash-and-stock deal - $129.22 in cash and 0.3683 shares of Actavis plc for each share of AGN held. The stock currently trades at $229. The MHK position was established at prices between $125 and $158 and the stock currently trades outside that range at $173. The SPY stake was purchased at prices between $186 and $209 and it currently trades at $210.Stake Disposals:Avago Technologies (AVGO): AVGO was a 1.65% of the US long portfolio position as of last quarter. The original position was established in Q1 2014 at prices between $52.49 and $65.31. It was reduced by half in Q2 2014 at prices between $58.53 and $72.07. Last quarter, the pattern reversed as the stake was increased by almost two-thirds at prices between $69.38 and $89.52. This quarter, the entire stake was eliminated at prices between $69 and $104. The stock currently trades at $110.Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY): BBBY is a medium-sized 2.27% of the US long portfolio position established last quarter at prices between $57.38 and $67.33. This quarter, the stake was eliminated at prices between $62.40 and $76.82. The stock currently trades at $77.91.Cheniere Energy (LNG): LNG was a very small 0.73% of the US long portfolio position as of last quarter. The stake was established in Q4 2013 at prices between $34 and $45. In Q2 2014, the position was reduced by 25% at prices between $54 and $72. Last quarter saw a further two-thirds reduction at prices between $70 and $85. This quarter, the remaining position was sold at prices between $61.90 and $80.03. The stock currently trades at $74.48. Loeb realized short-term gains from this position.Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE): CCE was first purchased in 2012. The original position was substantially increased in Q3 2013 with the purchase of around 2.2M shares at prices between $35 and $41. The stake had seen only minor adjustments since. Last quarter saw a ~27% increase at prices between $44.36 and $48.77. This quarter, the position was eliminated at prices between $40 and $45.35. The stock currently trades at $43.69.Fedex Corporation (FDX): FDX stake was first established in Q3 2013 when 2M shares were purchased at prices between $98 and $117. In Q2 2014, the position was reduced by half at prices between $131 and $152 and last quarter saw another 25% reduction at prices between $145 and $162. The remaining stake was eliminated this quarter at prices between $151 and $182. The stock currently trades at around $176. Loeb harvested gains from this position.H&R Block (HRB): HRB was a 1.58% of the US long portfolio position as of last quarter. It was established in Q1 2014 at prices between $28 and $32 and increased by ~23% the following quarter at prices between $27.40 and $33.52. This quarter, the entire position was eliminated at prices between $27.64 and $34.49. The stock currently trades at $35.06.YPF S A (YPF): YPF was a 1.58% of the US long portfolio position as of last quarter. It was established in Q1 2014 at prices between $21.05 and $33.08 and increased by over 135% the following quarter at prices between $27.90 and $35.95. Last quarter, the stake was reduced by ~40% at prices between $30.97 and $38.91 and the remaining position was eliminated this quarter at prices between $22.50 and $36.99. The stock currently trades at $26.86.EQT Corporation (EQT): The bulk of the 1.59% EQT position as of last quarter was purchased at prices between $91 and $107 and exited this quarter at prices between $75.38 and $100. The stock currently trades at $81.18.Crown Holdings (CCK) & Parker Hannifin Corp. (PH): These are small (less than 2% of the portfolio each) positions established last quarter and eliminated this quarter. CCK was a very small 0.72% stake purchased at prices between $44.52 and $51.47 and exited at prices between $42.98 and $52.31. The stock currently trades at $50.65. The 1.69% PH stake was purchased at prices between $110 and $127 and exited at prices between $103 and $133. The stock currently trades at $124.Stake Increases:Actavis plc (ACT): ACT is a top-five position at 8.01% of the US long portfolio. It was established in Q1 2014 at prices between $168 and $227. The stake was increased by ~15% last quarter at prices between $203 and $248 and another 20% this quarter at prices between $217 and $271. The stock currently trades at $285. The activity indicates a clear bullish bias.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA): BABA is currently Loeb’s second-largest position at 9.38% of the US long portfolio. It was established last quarter at prices between $87 and $94 and increased by ~39% this quarter at prices between $85 and $120. The stock currently trades near the low-end of those ranges at $89.05. For investors attempting to follow Loeb, BABA is a very good option to consider for further research. His Alibaba investment thesis boils down to the idea that Aliyun (cloud computing), 48% interest in China Smart Logistics, and AliPay are under-appreciated sources of value.American Airlines Group (AAL): The 1.81% AAL stake was increased by ~36% this quarter at prices between $28.58 and $53.63. It was increased by 30% last quarter as well at prices between $35 and $43.70. The stock currently trades at $48.39.Amgen Inc. (AMGN): A very small stake in AMGN was established in Q2 2014. It was increased by almost 200% last quarter at prices between $115 and $144. This quarter, the position was increased by a whopping ~700% at prices between $130 and $172. It is currently Third Point’s largest stake at 15.34% of the US long portfolio. The stock currently trades at $153 - Dan Loeb has said AMGN was the biggest winner in the portfolio for 2014. The buy thesis is based around the idea that efficient capital allocation along with splitting the company into a mature business and growth business should unlock tremendous value over the next two years ($249 price-target). The activity indicates a clear bullish bias.Anheuser Busch (BUD): BUD is a 2.28% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2014 at prices between $94 and $107. The stake was increased by ~30% in Q2 2014 at prices between $105 and $116 and another ~14% last quarter at prices between $107 and $116. This quarter also saw a ~13% increase at prices between $104 and $117. The stock currently trades at $122. The activity indicates a bullish bias.eBay Inc. (EBAY): EBAY is a fairly large position at 5.06% of the US long portfolio. The stake was established last quarter at prices between $50 and $56.63 and was increased by ~120% this quarter at prices between $47.88 and $57.53. The stock currently trades at $56.47. eBay saw significant super-investor interest as both Carl Icahn and Seth Klarman added stakes recently.Fleetcor Technologies (FLT): FLT was a minutely small position last quarter. It was increased to a 0.74% of the US long portfolio stake this quarter at prices between $123 and $156. The stock currently trades at $150.IAC Interactive (IACI): IACI is a 1.30% of the US long portfolio position purchased in Q2 2014 at prices between $62 and $70 and increased by ~19% this quarter at prices between $58.48 and $67.88. The stock currently trades at $64.60.Masco Corporation (MAS): MAS is a 2.27% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2014 at prices between $20.74 and $23.63. It was increased by ~80% in Q2 2014 at prices between $19.54 and $22.89 and another ~24% this quarter at prices between $20.86 and $25.40. The stock currently trades outside those ranges at $26.45.Sunedison Inc. (SUNE): SUNE is a 1.98% position established last quarter at prices between $18.88 and $24.05 and increased by ~88% this quarter at prices between $14.30 and $22.86. The stock currently trades at $21.45.Williams Companies (WMB): WMB is a small 1.62% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q4 2013 at prices between $35 and $39. The stake was increased by ~18% in Q1 2014 at prices between $38 and $43. Q2 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was reduced by 25% at prices between $40 and $59 and last quarter saw a further ~60% reduction at prices between $54 and $59.44. This quarter, the pattern reversed again: a ~167% increase at prices between $41.84 and $55.83. The stock currently trades at $49.41.Stake Decreases:Ally Financial (ALLY): ALLY is a top-five position at 6.39% of the US long portfolio. The position was established in Q2 2014 as a result of its IPO in April 2014. Loeb started investing in ALLY in 2011 through unsecured debt and preferred securities. Last quarter saw a ~8% trimming at prices between $22.60 and $25 and this quarter saw a further ~28% reduction at prices between $20.12 and $24.95. Since the end of the quarter, the position was further reduced by ~13% but he still holds 5.42% of the shares outstanding. The stock currently trades at $22.05 compared to the IPO price of $24.Anadarko Petroleum (APC) & Calls: The original APC stake established in early 2013 was more than doubled in Q3 & Q4 2013 at prices between $78 and $97. This quarter saw a ~50% reduction at prices between $72 and $101. The stock currently trades at $89.44 and the remaining stake is very small at 0.74% of the US long portfolio.CF Industries (CF): The 1.60% CF position was purchased in Q1 2014 at prices between $225 and $265. Last three quarters have seen some selling as the original stake has been reduced by around one-third at prices between $235 and $283. The stock currently trades at $301.Constellation Brands (STZ) & Calls: The 2.10% STZ position was first purchased in 2012 and has only seen marginal activity since. This quarter saw a ~4% reduction.Dow Chemical (DOW): DOW is currently Third Point’s third-largest individual stock position at 9.05% of the US long portfolio. The original stake was established in Q4 2013 at prices between $38.30 and $45. In Q2 2014, the position was increased by just over 180% at prices between $46.95 and $53.15 and last quarter saw an additional one-third increase at prices between $51 and $55. This quarter saw an about-turn as ~24% of the position was disposed of at prices between $42.71 and $52.84. The stock currently trades at $49.44. It is an activist stake and Loeb has said that a “combination of closures, modifications brownfield investments, and divestitures” will be required in Dow’s petrochemical assets to harness the full potential. Over the last one-year, the stock has returned around 6% but the ten-year return is depressing at negative 4% (excluding dividends).Sensata Technologies (ST): ST is a 1.89% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2014 at prices between $36.78 and $42.90. The stake was increased by ~62% in Q2 2014 at prices between $41.59 and $46.78 and another two-thirds last quarter at prices between $45.15 and $49.76. This quarter saw a ~20% reduction at prices between $41.67 and $53.70. The stock currently trades at $52.50.Shire plc (SHPG): SHPG is a 0.96% of the US long portfolio position established last quarter at prices between $232 and $263. This quarter saw a one-third reduction at prices between $170 and $263. The stock currently trades at $240.Note: In July 2014, AbbVie (ABBV) agreed to acquire SHPG in a $55B transaction but the deal was called off in October. SHPG earned a breakup fee of $1.6B. Last month, SHPG agreed to buy NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) for $5.2B.Kept Steady:Dollar General (DG): DG was first purchased in 2012 and the position has wavered since. The stake is at 2.55% of the portfolio currently. Last significant activity was a one-third increase in Q2 2014 at prices between $53.50 and $62.82. The stock currently trades outside that range at $68.82.Note: Dollar General was involved in a hostile takeover of Family Dollar (FDO). Last month, they formally ended the process as Dollar Tree (DLTR) succeeded in gaining shareholder approval in their bid for FDO.Enphase Energy (ENPH): ENPH has been in the portfolio since its 2012 IPO - the position had remained untouched ever since. Last quarter saw a ~16% reduction at prices between $8.55 and $17.39. Third Point’s investment in the company goes back to January 2007 when they sponsored the company’s entire first round of Series B funding of $4.5M for a 42% stake. The current stake is at ~14% of the company. Loeb revealed that at the time of IPO, the investment already had a ~20% IRR. Since then, the stock has doubled as well. It has been a volatile stock trading as low as $2 in November 2012. It currently trades at $15.15.Roper Industries (ROP) & Liberty Global (LBTYA) (LBTYK): ROP and LBTYK are medium-sized 1.83 % and 2.53% of the US long portfolio positions respectively. The ROP stake was purchased in Q1 2014 at prices between $132 and $142 and the stock currently trades well outside that range at $166. LBTYK has been in the portfolio since 2011. The stock currently trades at $50.78.Sotheby’s (BID): BID is a 2.59% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q1 2013 at prices between $32 and $40. The bulk of the current position was purchased in Q3 2013 at prices between $39 and $51. It is an activist stake and on October 2nd, 2013 Dan Loeb wrote a letter to Sotheby’s chairman asking him to step down. The main point of the letter was that the company’s upper management and board interests are not aligned with shareholders. The stock currently trades at $44.89. For investors attempting to follow Third Point, BID is a very good option to consider for further research.Energizer Holdings (ENR) and Intrexon Corporation (XON): These are very small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) positions. ENR position was established last quarter in the $115 to $125 price-range and it currently trades at $138. ENR is on track to split into a Household Products business and a Personal Care Products business in July 2015. The original XON stake was acquired in 2011 when the company was private. The stock currently trades at $39.30 compared to the Q3 2013 IPO price of $29.The 13F portfolio also shows the following minutely small (less than 0.5% of the portfolio each) stakes: Citigroup Warrants (C.WS.A), FCB Financial Holdings (FCB), Green Brick Partners (GRBK), Moelis & Company (MC), Rice Midstream Partners (RMP), and a debt holding - Cobalt International Energy (CIE) notes. In addition to partner stakes, Third Point also invests the float of Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE).The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Loeb’s US stock holdings in Q4 2014:"