"Tracking John Paulson’s Paulson & Company Portfolio – Q1 2019 Update"
"John Paulson’s 13F portfolio value increased from $4.17B to $4.59B this quarter.Paulson & Company's largest three positions are SPDR Gold ETF, Bausch Health, and Mylan NV.Paulson increased Brightsphere Investment Group during the quarter.This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulson’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulson’s regulatory  filed on 05/15/2019. Please visit our  to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our  for the fund’s moves during Q4 2018.This quarter, Paulson’s 13F portfolio value increased ~7% from $4.17B to $4.59B. There are 53 13F securities in the portfolio although only 33 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are SPDR Gold ETF, Bausch Health, Mylan NV, Celgene Corp and Discover Communications and they add up to ~42% of the portfolio.John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that, check-out the book “”.Stake Disposals:Nielsen Holdings (NLSN): NLSN was a 0.76% position established in Q3 2018 at prices between $21.75 and $32 and reduced by ~60% last quarter at prices between $22 and $28. The disposal this quarter was at prices between $23.25 and $27.50. It currently trades at $23.98.Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK): The MNK position was established in Q3 2013 at prices between $42 and $47. The seven quarters thru Q4 2017 saw a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $21 and $81 and that was followed with a ~45% selling in Q3 2018 at prices between $19 and $36. The position saw another ~70% selling last quarter at prices between $15.80 and $31.60. The disposal this quarter was at prices between $16 and $25. The stock currently trades at $9.23.Note: MNK, a July 2013 spinoff from Covidien plc started trading at around $42. Covidien plc in turn was acquired by Medtronic (MDT) in January 2015.Shire PLC ADR (SHPG): The large 9.68% SHPG stake was established in Q3 2012 at prices between $85 and $94. In Q2 2013, the position was doubled at prices between $87 and $100. The stake was since increased but in Q2 2015, the pattern reversed: combined ~57% selling in the next three years at prices between $127 and $227. Shire plc got acquired by Takeda in a stock deal valued at $195 per share in a transaction that closed in January.Twenty First Century Fox: FOX stake was first purchased in Q4 2017 at prices between $24.50 and $34.75 but was almost sold out next quarter at prices between $34 and $38.50. Q2 2018 saw the position built back up to a ~1.5% portfolio position at prices between $35.70 and $50. Last quarter saw a ~85% stake increase at prices between $44.50 and $49.50.Note: In December 2017, Walt Disney Company (DIS) agreed to acquire the film & entertainment assets of Twenty First Century Fox and that transaction closed in March. What remained became Fox Corp – the assets of Fox Corp include broadcasting networks and stations, news channel, business network, and Sports – FS1 & FS2, Fox Deportes, and Big Ten Network. Terms of the transaction were ~$38 per share in cash or Disney stock subject to collar and one-third of one-share of new Fox for each share of Twenty First Century Fox. DIS and FOX currently trade at ~$134 and ~$36.67 respectively.Pandora (P): P was a 1.83% portfolio position established in Q3 2018 at prices between $6.75 and $10 and increased by ~130% last quarter at prices between $5.35 and $6.40. In September, Sirius XM (SIRI) agreed to acquire Pandora in an all-stock deal (1.44 shares of SIRI for each P held) and that transaction closed in February. Sirius currently trades at $5.56.Randgold Resources: The small ~1% portfolio stake in Randgold saw a ~27% increase in Q3 2018 at prices between $61 and $77 and another ~17% increase last quarter. It was a merger arbitrage stake. Barrick Gold acquired Randgold in an all-stock deal (6.128 shares of Barrick Gold for each Randgold share held) that closed in January.Note: Barrick Gold changed their ticker symbol to GOLD from ABX after the deal for Randgold closed.Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), Imperva Inc. (IMPV), and Office Depot (ODP): These small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were disposed during the quarter.New Stakes:Celgene Corp (CELG) and Takeda Pharma (TAK): CELG is a large (top five) 6.78% merger-arbitrage stake established this quarter. Bristol Myers Squibb is buying Celgene in a cash-and-stock deal ($50 cash and 1 share of BMY for each share of CELG held). CELG currently trades at $96.36 and BMY at $47.74. The fairly large 5.88% TAK stake came about as a result of Takeda’s Shire plc acquisition in a cash-and-stock deal ($90.99 cash and 5.034 shares of TAK for each share of SHPG held). Paulson had a ~10% portfolio stake in Shire plc for which he received these shares after that transaction closed in January. Paulson trimmed the position by ~10% during the quarter. Takeda currently trades at $17.48.Wellcare Health Plans (WCG) and Centene Corp (CNC): Centene is acquiring Wellcare Health Plans in a cash-and-stock deal (3.38 shares of Centene and $120 cash for each share of Wellcare Health Plans held) that was announced in late March. WCG & CNC currently trade at $278 and $56.78 respectively. Paulson has a 3.65% of the portfolio stake split almost evenly among WCG & CNC.Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Calls, First Data Corp (FDC), Versum Materials (VSM), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Fox Corp (FOX): These are very small new stakes (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) established this quarter.Stake Decreases:Discovery Communications (DISCA): DISCA position saw a 320% stake increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $21.50 and $26.50 while next quarter there was a ~140% further increase at prices between $21 and $24. DISCA currently trades at $27.42 and the stake is now fairly large at 6.05% of the portfolio. There was a ~22% stake increase in Q3 2017 at prices between $25.50 and $32.25. Last two quarters have seen a combined ~12% trimming.Horizon Pharmaceuticals (HZNP): The 3.84% HZNP position was purchased in Q2 2017 at prices between $9.65 and $15.75 and increased by ~40% in Q4 2017 at prices between $13 and $15. The stock is now at $25.57. There was a ~3% trimming in Q1 2018 and that was followed with a ~7% selling in Q3 2018. This quarter also saw a ~7% trimming.Travelport Worldwide (TVPT): Travelport is being taken private at $15.75 per share in a transaction announced in December. The stock is now at $14.85. The share price dropped earlier this week due to concerns that the deal might fall thru.International Seaways (INSW): INSW position came about as a result of its spinoff from Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) that started regular-way trading in December 2016 at ~$15 per share. It is now at $19.60. There was ~6% trimming in Q2 2017 and that was followed with ~18% selling over the last two quarters at prices between $16 and $24. This quarter saw another ~30% selling at prices between $16.50 and $19.Note: Paulson controls ~5.7% of International Seaways.Stake Increases:Brightsphere Investment Group (BSIG): The large 5.91% BSIG stake was built last quarter at prices between $10 and $13.30. This quarter saw a huge ~285% stake increase at prices between $11 and $14.25. The stock currently trades at $11.73.Note: Paulson’s ownership stake in BSIG is ~22%.Altaba Inc. (AABA) previously Yahoo: The 3.85% AABA stake was established in Q2 2017 at prices between $46 and $56 and increased by ~42% the following quarter at prices between $54.50 and $67.50. Q4 2017 saw an about turn: ~55% reduction at prices between $65 and $73. It is now at $63.35. There was a ~23% stake increase last quarter at prices between $55.50 and $67 and that was followed with a ~12% increase this quarter.Red Hat Inc. (RHT): RHT is a 1.67% of the portfolio merger arbitrage stake established last quarter and increased by ~12% this quarter. In October, IBM agreed to buy Red Hat for $190 per share cash. The stock is currently at ~$186.Kept Steady:SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): GLD was Paulson’s largest position by far at ~19% of the 13F portfolio as of Q1 2013. The original stake was established in Q1 2009 at prices between $83 and $98 and was reduced by ~45% in 2011 at much higher prices. It was reduced by more than half in Q2 2013 as well at prices between $116 and $155. Q4 2015 and the following quarter saw a combined ~60% reduction at prices between $100 and $122. The stock currently trades at ~$120. The remaining stake is still the largest at 11.49% of the portfolio.Bausch Health Companies (BHC) previously Valeant Pharmaceuticals: BHC position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw another ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. The stock currently trades near the low end of those ranges at $24.44 and the stake has become the second-largest position in the portfolio at 11.22%.Note: Paulson controls ~6% of Bausch Health.Mylan Inc. (MYL): MYL is a top three position at 6.80% of the portfolio. The original stake was purchased in Q1 2010 at prices between $17 and $23. Last significant buying was in Q2 2015: ~50% increase at prices between $58 and $76. 2017 & 2018 had seen a ~50% selling at prices between $30.50 and $47. The stock currently trades at $19.65.Allergan plc (AGN): AGN was a minutely small 0.29% of the 13F portfolio position in Q2 2014. The following two quarters saw a ~420% increase at prices between $202 and $271. Q2 2015 saw a further ~27% increase at prices between $283 and $313. In Q4 2015 there was an about-turn: a combined ~75% selling over the next two years at prices between $192 and $320. There was another ~15% reduction last quarter at prices between $167 and $193. The stock is now at ~$140 and the stake is at 4.94% of the portfolio. Last quarter saw a ~4% trimming.AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 3.65% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Q4 2015 had seen a ~9% trimming while the following quarter saw a one-third reduction at prices between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $13 and $18. The stock is currently at $11.61.Note: Paulson controls ~3% of AngloGold Ashanti.Dish Network (DISH): DISH is a 3.43% portfolio position established in Q1 2017 at prices between $58 and $64. Q2 & Q3 2017 saw a combined ~36% stake increase at prices between $52 and $66. The stock is currently below the low end of those ranges at $34.87. There was a ~11% trimming in Q4 2017 while next quarter there was a ~19% stake increase. For investors attempting to follow Paulson, DISH is a good option to consider for further research.T-Mobile US (TMUS): The 2.94% portfolio stake in TMUS was purchased in Q1 2017 at prices between $56.60 and $65 and increased by ~46% the following quarter at prices between $60 and $68. The three quarters thru Q1 2018 had seen a combined ~37% selling at prices between $55 and $65.50 and that was followed with a similar reduction in Q3 2018 at prices between $58 and $70.50. Last quarter also saw a ~20% selling at prices between $61 and $70. The stock is now at $76.35.Novagold (NG): NG is a ~2% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling in Q4 2016. The stock is currently at $3.79.Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~7% of the business.TIM Participacoes (TSU): TSU is a 1.64% portfolio stake first purchased in Q2 2014 at prices between $24 and $30. The position had remained relatively steady since. Q1 2018 saw a ~10% selling at prices between $19.50 and $22.50. The stock is currently trading below those ranges at $13.13.Endo International plc (ENDP): A very small ENDP stake was increased by almost 200% in Q1 2016 at prices between $28 and $61. The next two quarters saw a combined ~18% reduction at prices between $17 and $43. The stock is now at $6.32 and the stake is at 1.51% of the portfolio. There was a ~28% increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $5.50 and $9.Viacom (VIAB): The 0.81% VIAB position saw a ~160% stake increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $29 and $34. Last quarter saw a ~50% selling at prices between $25 and $34. The stock is now at $28.81.Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), International Tower Hill Mines (THM), Stewart Information Services (STC), Tribune Media (TRCO), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ): These are small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes kept steady this quarter.Note: Paulson has a ~32% ownership stake in International Tower Hill Mines.The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulson’s US stock holdings in Q1 2019:Regulatory Filings thru 2/21/2019: Form 4, 13D/A – 11/30 – INSW – 2,909,100 shares - ~175K shares disposed at ~$19 per share – 9.97% of business."