Colorado is slated to receive some $5.5 billion by 2045 under that settlement. But there are a lot of "ifs" in that projection. Last week the big tobacco companies won an arbitration ruling that they are losing market share to small competitors who don't make the payments. Big tobacco thus wants to reduce the $6.5 billion payment due the states later this month by $1.1 billion. Such a cut would drop Colorado's 2006 take by $15 million, to $75 million.