The Alabama GOP Senate primary on Tuesday will go a long way in answering the overriding question of the race: How much do Mitch McConnell’s cash and Donald Trump’s endorsement matter? 
 
 The brutal fight on the Republican side is all but assured to go to a September runoff, with no one expected to reach the 50 percent threshold to win the nomination outright. Sen. Luther Strange has the backing of Trump — who remains immensely popular in Alabama and cut a robocall for the senator on Monday — and millions in ads from a McConnell-blessed super PAC. 
 
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 Even with that help, Strange isn't a lock to secure a spot in the runoff. Polls show ex-state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore consistently leading, while Strange and Rep. Mo Brooks are battling for the runner-up position. 
 
 The polls close at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local time). Here are POLITICO’s five things to watch as Moore, Strange and Brooks vie for the top two slots to advance to the Sept. 26 runoff: 
 
 Where does Strange land — and what does it mean? 
 
 With a massive cash advantage, powerhouse endorsements and the advantages of incumbency, Strange should be the front-runner. But swirling questions about how he was appointed to the seat by the disgraced ex-Gov. Robert Bentley have dogged Strange throughout his campaign. 
 
 “Luther Strange is the first opportunity voters have to put a head on a spike for all the corruption that’s been going on in Republican politics in the last three years," one former Alabama GOP official said. 
 
 Strange denies any impropriety and instead touts his record of taking on corruption as the twice-elected state attorney general. 
 
 But should Strange somehow not make the runoff — he's consistently placed second in polls, though the margin between him and Brooks is narrow — it would be a huge embarrassment for McConnell and establishment Republicans who have invested millions to help Strange secure the nomination. 
 
 Will Trump’s endorsement amount to anything? 
 
 In a race in which the candidates have tripped over each other trying to align themselves with the president, Strange can proudly claim he is Trump's man. 
 
 Trump announced the endorsement in a surprise tweet last week, tweeted again on Monday to boost the senator and recorded a robocall to help get out the vote on Election Day. 
 
 How much Trump’s imprimatur matters is unclear, but Strange isn’t hesitating to remind voters of it at every turn. 
 
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 To a crowd of Republicans in Homewood, Alabama last week, Strange recounted the phone call with Trump when he informed the senator of the endorsement, when the president told him: “I’ve never done this in a contested primary before, I’m sure I’m going to be criticized, but it’s important to get my agenda passed and I appreciate what you’re going through to get it done.” 
 
 “So, I can’t say anything more than what the president himself has said,” Strange told local party activists in the Birmingham suburb. “I hope you will bear that in mind.” 
 
 How high does Moore go? 
 
 Virtually every poll has shown Moore making the runoff by a comfortable margin. A trio of recent surveys had the judge leading the field with support in the 31 to 35 percent range. 
 
 Rep. Mo Brooks (left) is battling for the runner-up position in the Alabama GOP primary; polls show ex-state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (right) consistently leading. | AP Photos 
 
 Republican officials expect turnout to be low, which would likely hurt the rest of the field but potentially boost Moore, given his enthusiastic base. At the same time, Moore’s campaign is floating the idea that he could exceed expectations and win somewhere above 35 percent but probably below the 50 percent needed to clinch the nomination outright. 
 
 Moore’s campaign is also banking on Trump’s endorsement making only a marginal difference in the primary. 
 
 “I’m sure it’s got some effect on some people but I don’t sense the folks I’m talking to are being moved by it,” said Moore campaign chairman Bill Armistead. "I think the die is pretty well cast.” 
 
 What does the outcome signal for the runoff? 
 
 Strange is struggling even with the support of the president and the GOP establishment. Assuming he makes it to the runoff, though, the strength of his second-place finish will set expectations for how winnable the election is — or not. 
 
 If Strange barely makes it into the runoff — or comes in third — it will call into question the influence of Trump’s support in a reliably Republican state. If Strange exceeds the low 20-percent support he's gotten in recent polls, he'll still face a tough battle against Moore but won’t have to field a wave of questions about his ultimate viability or the power of Trump's endorsement. 
 
 What about the Democratic primary? 
 
 A Democrat hasn’t held a U.S. Senate seat in Alabama since 1997 but the party feels it might have an outside shot if the chips all fall its way. 
 
 Seven candidates are running for the Democratic nomination, but two are really in play: former U.S. attorney Doug Jones and Robert Kennedy Jr., a Navy veteran and business executive who’s unrelated to the Kennedy family. 
 
 Jones is the favorite of the Democratic establishment and has been endorsed by former Vice President Joe Biden as well as a handful of members of Congress. Democrats hope Jones’ civil rights records, including being the federal prosecutor who convicted two Klansmen involved in the 1963 16th Street Baptist Church bombing, and a chaotic Republican primary will create an opening for the seat. 
 
 A Raycom News Network and Strategy Research poll released in late July found Kennedy leading the Democratic field with 49 percent support and Jones in second place with 28 percent. This was before the endorsement by Biden, who has strong ties to Southern Democrats, but Jones’ campaign is still bracing for a tight election night and a likely runoff battle ahead. ||||| In a primary race largely dominated by the popularity of President Donald Trump among Alabama Republicans, three GOP candidates will square off Tuesday in a special election primary to fill the Senate seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions. 
 
 After weeks of vowing to remain on the sidelines, Trump inserted himself front-and-center in the race earlier this month when he endorsed Sen. Luther Strange, who was appointed to fill Sessions' seat temporarily earlier this year. On Monday, news emerged that the president had begun recording robocalls for him, urging Alabama GOP voters to support him. 
 
 But the other two candidates have sought to suggest no daylight between them and the president, either. 
 
 Twice-elected, twice-deposed Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court Roy Moore, Tea Party favorite Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Ala, and Strange have duked it out for months, competing for the attention of voters who still hold the president in extremely high regard. 
 
 Moore has a steady lead in most polls, but has fallen short of the 50-percent mark, pitting Strange and Brooks in a battle for second place. 
 
 If no candidate hits 50 percent on Tuesday, only the top two candidate will move on to a runoff on Sept. 26, before the general election in December. 
 
 Sen. Luther Strange, R-Ala., responds to questions during a television interview on Capitol Hill on July 11. J. Scott Applewhite / AP 
 
 A senior Alabama GOP official told NBC News last week following Trump’s endorsement that the president’s move was “monumental,” and said that if Strange does better than the polls suggest, it would indicate Trump still holds substantial sway in the Yellowhammer State. 
 
 "If [Strange] is No. 1 one in the runoff, there’s the story," the official said. 
 
 But if Strange doesn’t make the runoff, it could erode the narrative of Trump’s influence in the state, the official said. 
 
 Adding even more uncertainty around Tuesday’s outcome is the fact that both Strange and Brooks, whose congressional district runs along the state’s northern border, head into the race carrying baggage. 
 
 Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Huntsville, Alabama on May 15, 2017. Bob Gathany / AL.com via AP file 
 
 Strange has been dogged by questions about his appointment to Sessions' seat by former Gov. Robert Bentley, who was shortly thereafter driven out of office by a sex scandal, while Brooks attracted negative attention himself for running a campaign ad using audio from the June shooting that injured House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.). Brooks attended the practice. 
 
 Strange has also received support from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. and a McConnell-affiliated super PAC said in July it would spend up to $10 million on the race. Brooks — who trailed Strange in a poll released last week 18 percent to 23 percent — has tried to use that against his competitor, ripping him repeatedly as the “establishment” candidate. 
 
 Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore poses in 2015. Brynn Anderson / AP file 
 
 Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, a man named Robert Kennedy Jr. (no, not that Robert Kennedy, Jr.) is crushing his next closest competitor in the polls, seemingly enjoying an advantage of his famous-sounding name. 
 
 Kennedy, who shares no relation to the Kennedy political dynasty, remains at the top of the seven-candidate Democratic field, according to a poll released in late July commissioned by Birmingham TV station WBRC, one of the only surveys of the race. 
 
 Among those trailing Kennedy's 49-percent support in that poll — which would put him just short of avoiding a runoff — is Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney appointed by Bill Clinton who has been involved in Alabama politics since he was president of the Young Democrats chapter in law school. 
 
 Robert Kennedy Jr. speaks during a Democratic Senate candidate forum at the Princess Theatre on August 3, 2017 in Decatur, Alabama. file Jeronimo Nisa / The Decatur Daily via AP file 
 
 Kennedy has been dubbed by local papers as a “mystery candidate" and campaign finance reports show that, by the end of June, he hadn’t hired any staff or spent any money on anything other than online fundraising processing fees. 
 
 He told NBC News earlier this month that he’s a gun-owning fiscal conservative who emphasizes "faith," "family," and "freedom,” who nevertheless is pushing for an activist federal government. 
 
 But even if Kennedy cruises, he faces a near-impossible path to victory in a general election against the eventual Republican candidate. Alabama voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992 and haven’t elected a Democratic governor since 1998. ||||| HOMEWOOD, Ala. — Senator Luther Strange of Alabama wields an endorsement from the president of the United States, is the beneficiary of a multimillion-dollar campaign from allies of Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and has the backing of influential conservative interest groups like the National Rifle Association. 
 
 But Mr. Strange is wheezing into Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary here. He is grasping to secure a second-place finish and a slot in a September runoff with Roy S. Moore, the twice-deposed former State Supreme Court justice and evangelical-voter favorite who is expected to be the top vote-getter but may fall short of the majority needed to win outright. 
 
 Mr. Strange is in a political vise, pinched by his links to a pair of Republicans, one local and one national, held in low esteem by many in the party here: the disgraced former Gov. Robert Bentley, who appointed Mr. Strange, and Mr. McConnell. 
 
 The senator’s difficulties owe chiefly to how he found his way to fill the seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, a story rooted in the sex scandal of Mr. Bentley. Yet Mr. Strange, who is 6-foot-9 and known to many as “Big Luther,” is also bumping into the enduring contempt grass-roots conservatives harbor toward the party establishment, an animus now principally directed toward Mr. McConnell. ||||| With Strange now picking out office furniture in Washington, D.C., Bentley has the privilege of selecting a new attorney general, a development that has Alabama reporters and political junkies whipped up into a fury. Columnist Kyle Whitmire wrote that the move set “a new benchmark for Alabama corruption,” adding: “It’s so nakedly political that someone should charge them with indecent exposure.” Cartoonist J.D. Crowe drew a caricature of Strange and Bentley in the nude, with the governor reaching around to cup the new senator’s chest, a reference to an infamous clandestine recording of Bentley cooing about how much he loves to squeeze the breasts of his mistress Rebekah Mason. 
 
 Even some Republicans are saying the optics are bad. After all, Strange, a former D.C. lobbyist, has made a name for himself as a force against corruption. He came into office in 2010 as part of the GOP’s historic takeover of all branches of state government, which had been dominated by Democrats since Reconstruction. Central to the campaign was a vow to fight corruption, and once in office Strange reconstituted the state’s special prosecution unit. One of its earliest targets was Mike Hubbard, speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives and mastermind of the Republican takeover. Strange recused himself from the case, citing his use of Hubbard’s printing company during his campaign. But after it ended with 12 felony convictions, Strange announced, “This is a good day for the rule of law in our state.” He added, “This should send a clear message that in Alabama we hold public officials accountable for their actions.” 
 
 
 
 Even some Republicans are saying the optics are bad. 
 
 During his two terms in office, Strange has presented himself as a tough enforcer of laws and constitutional rights, especially those that interest conservatives. As a leader in the Republican Attorney General Association (at the time of his Senate appointment he was chairman-elect) he helped spearhead legal opposition to the Obama administration’s policies on immigration, environmental protection, health care, and LGBT rights. And he’s made a big show of cracking down on violations of Alabama’s gun laws, ordering libraries and community centers across the state to remove signs prohibiting fire arms. 
 
 But he has also been accused of politicizing the justice system, using the state’s anti-gambling laws to target casinos in predominantly black counties for alleged violations that his office has allowed at Indian-owned casinos. In 2013, the state seized electronic bingo machines and cash from VictoryLand Casino in Macon County, claiming that they were actually slot machines, which are illegal in the state. A circuit court later ordered Strange’s office to return the machines, accusing him of “cherry picking” his enforcement of the law, because casinos owned by the Poarch Creek Indians are allowed to operate identical machines. 
 
 Strange has also brought suit against the tribe, but critics question the sincerity of these efforts. “His case was absolutely based on the wrong question,” says Bobby Singleton, a Democratic state senator from Greensboro. “He knew he had no standing on it.” ||||| Florida is on high alert and has ordered evacuations, with mandatory evacuations for the Florida Keys and parts of Miami-Dade and Broward counties. FEMA Director Brock Long said Friday: "I can guarantee you that I don't know anybody in Florida who's ever experienced what's about to hit South Florida." 
 
 A bad week for North America: Two other hurricanes are building momentum in the Atlantic. Hurricane Jose is expected to make landfall on some Caribbean islands Saturday, while Katia, now a Category 2 storm, is threatening to close in on the coast of Mexico Friday evening. And late Thursday night, a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1 hit Mexico just off the Pacific coast, killing at least 32 people. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto said it was the biggest earthquake to hit the country in a century. 
 
 Trump on Twitter Friday morning: "Hurricane Irma is of epic proportion, perhaps bigger than we have ever seen. Be safe and get out of its way,if possible. Federal G is ready! Our incredible U.S. Coast Guard saved more than 15,000 lives last week with Harvey. Irma could be even tougher. We love our Coast Guard!" 
 
 More updates: 
 
 Gov. Rick Scott said Friday morning, "All Floridians should be prepared to evacuate soon. Evacuations aren't meant to be convenient, but to keep you safe... Possession can be replaced, families cannot." Irma's storm surge is forecasted to be 3 to 10 feet in Florida. Meanwhile, more than 10,000 people have already headed to shelters in Miami-Dade county alone. 
 
 "The dramatic mass exodus from South Florida could turn into one of the largest evacuations in US history," CNN senior meteorologist Dave Hennen said. 
 
 Fuel in Florida is running low, creating another issue for the state. Gov. Scott has urged gas stations to remain open for as long as possible. 
 
 The Carolinas and Georgia have declared emergencies. Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal issued mandatory evacuations for Savannah and other coastal areas, starting Saturday. 
 
 Delta Air Lines has added flights out of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Key West to Atlanta, and is letting passengers affected by Irma to rebook flights for free. 
 
 White House Homeland Security Advisor, Tom Bossert, said Friday that the U.S. will evacuate people in the U.S. Virgin Islands and St. Martin in preparation for Hurricane Jose. 
 
 While walking to board Marine One en route to Camp David, President Trump told reporters "we are prepared at the highest level" for Hurricane Irma. 
 
 8pm forecast map: ||||| (Reuters) - A Republican candidate backed by President Donald Trump for a U.S. Senate seat from Alabama is expected to finish a distant second in a primary election on Tuesday, but will still have enough votes to advance to a run-off, local news projected. 
 
 In the election for the seat vacated by Republican Jeff Sessions when he became U.S. attorney general, Luther Strange, who was appointed to the seat and was backed by Trump, will move to the Republican primary along with former Alabama Supreme Court Chief justice Roy Moore, the projections said. 
 
 Neither candidate captured more than 50 percent of the vote required for an outright victory. With 60 of the state’s 67 counties reporting, Moore had 43.8 percent of the vote while Strange had 31.7 percent, official results showed. 
 
 Strange, a former Alabama attorney general, has close ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has been feuding with Trump lately over stalled effort to pass health care reform. 
 
 Strange scored the president’s surprise endorsement last week and Trump reiterated his support for Strange in an automated phone call to voters on Monday. 
 
 “He’s helping me in the Senate,” Trump said. “He’s going to get the tax cuts for us. He’s doing a lot of things for the people of Alabama.” 
 
 Moore was effectively ousted as Alabama’s chief justice in 2016 for defying the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing gay marriage. It was the second time that he was suspended from the bench. The first was in 2003 after refusing a federal court order to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the courthouse. 
 
 U.S. Representative Mo Brooks came in third in the Republican primary and will not advance to the Sept. 26 runoff. The top candidates have battled for weeks over which of them is most supportive of Trump’s legislative agenda. 
 
 In the Democratic primary, Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney backed by former Vice President Joe Biden, is projected to be the outright winner and a long shot to win the seat in the Republican-dominated state.
– The fight for the Alabama Senate seat previously vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions looks poised to go to a Sept. 26 runoff election. But the path there officially kicks off Tuesday with a special election primary in which three candidates will be weeded down to two. President Trump and Mitch McConnell are backing former Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange, who was temporarily appointed to the seat after Sessions left it. But it's former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore who's the apparent front-runner, with Strange and US Rep. Mo Brooks trailing behind, reports Politico. More: A candidate needs 50% of the vote to take the seat, which most news outlets agree is unlikely to happen. Moore leads in some polls at around 35% support, with Strange and Brooks in a close race for second. Should Trump's favorite be eliminated, it "will call into question the influence of Trump's support in a reliably Republican state," per Politico. Not that Trump should be too disappointed with Brooks or Moore. Both are "Trumpian candidates," reports Axios. McConnell has a huge interest in the race, though. He and his allies have invested millions in Strange's campaign. Also key: Brooks has said he wants McConnell "fired." Not helping Brooks, however, is a controversial campaign ad he aired that included audio from the shooting of Steve Scalise, reports NBC News. Strange is likewise plagued by his appointment by former Gov. Robert Bentley in what some suspect was "a corrupt bargain to end the state's criminal investigation of Bentley," the New Republic previously reported. Reuters mentions the candidates' stances on issues like gay marriage and illegal immigration. The winner of the runoff election is likely to face one of two Democrats in December: either former US Attorney Doug Jones, backed by Joe Biden, or Robert Kennedy Jr., a Navy veteran with no relation to the famous Kennedy family, per Politico. Either way, the Republican winner will be sitting pretty. Alabama hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992, per the New York Times. Polls close at 8pm EDT.