A Democratic wave would be especially awkward for President Donald Trump, who boasts that his record in office is unmatched by any of his modern predecessors. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images White House Trump distances himself from a potential GOP thumping In public the president says the 2018 election is about him. In private, he talks about pointing the finger after likely Democratic gains. 
 
 At his rallies, President Donald Trump argues that the midterm elections are about one person — Donald Trump. “Get out in 2018,” Trump told a crowd in Missouri last month, “because you’re voting for me!” 
 
 Privately, the president says the exact opposite. 
 
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 According to two people familiar with the conversations, Trump is distancing himself from a potential Republican thumping on Election Day. He’s telling confidants that he doesn’t see the midterms as a referendum on himself, describing his 2020 reelection bid as “the real election.” And he says that he holds House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responsible for protecting their majorities in Congress. 
 
 According to one person with knowledge of these talks, Trump has said of Ryan and McConnell: “These are their elections … and if they screw it up, it’s not my fault.” 
 
 Other sources said Trump is sure to lash out at perhaps his favorite bogeyman of all — the media — for allegedly opposing him. 
 
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 It’s not all pre-emptive finger-pointing: Trump expresses greater confidence than most pundits about his party’s chances of maintaining its House majority and expanding its control of the Senate. And he credits McConnell for motivating GOP voters by holding the line on Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation. 
 
 But in the event of an electoral blowout, Trump is poised to shift the blame a mile down Pennsylvania Avenue. 
 
 “Look for the White House to say something like, ‘Paul Ryan chose to be a lame-duck speaker instead of leaving, which cost Congress the chance to do several things before November,’” said an aide to one GOP member who speaks with the president often. 
 
 A Democratic wave would be especially awkward for a president whose brand is success, and who boasts that his record in office is unmatched by any of his modern predecessors. 
 
 Already, hints of a distancing strategy have started to creep into Trump’s public comments, even as he continues to crow at rallies that the midterms are a “referendum” on his first two years in office. Trump told The Associated Press recently that some of his supporters have said to him, “I will never ever go and vote in the midterms because you’re not running.” 
 
 Inside the White House, aides are resigned to the fact that Trump — as he has often done — will follow his gut on how to message any Democratic takeover of the House on Nov. 6. Those around Trump are anticipating lots of unfiltered, early-morning tweets casting blame on everyone but the president. 
 
 “It would be a lot of shooting from the hip in early morning Twitter,” said a well-placed Republican source, who added that the White House seems to lack clear plans for post-election messaging. 
 
 The themes are already predictable. 
 
 “The arc is gonna be he wasn’t on the ballot, and people didn’t fully appreciate his policies and [candidates] didn’t tie themselves enough to him,” said a person close to the president, who was among several sources to say Trump will likely blame the media as well. 
 
 While lashing out would be a Trumpian response, it would also be a break from recent presidential precedent. After losing the Congress to Democrats midway through his second term in 2006, a humbled George W. Bush conceded that he’d taken a “thumpin’,” pushed out an unpopular Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and vowed to find “common ground” with Democrats. 
 
 Four years later, after a tea party wave swamped congressional Democrats two years into his first term, with Republicans picking up 63 House seats for the biggest midterm gain by either party since 1938, Barack Obama took “direct responsibility” in remarks afterward. Calling the moment “humbling,” Obama vowed to “do a better job.” 
 
 Although White House officials are aware of those precedents, Trump may not care about them. And he alone will decide how to spin the midterm results, with his aides following his lead. The White House declined to comment on the record for this story. 
 
 “Despite whatever [way] they may want to spin it … he’s going to drive the train on this and the White House is gonna fall and say the president did everything he could, but unfortunately he’s not on the ballot and so people weren’t as excited,” said the person close to Trump. 
 
 Before he was president, Trump had a philosophy on whether leaders should accept blame: “Whatever happens, you’re responsible. If it doesn’t happen you’re responsible.” 
 
 But once in office, Trump, backed up by his communications team, has shifted blame for setbacks to others — especially Congress. 
 
 After efforts to repeal Obama’s health care law stalled in Congress last July, the president blamed “a few Republicans” for holding up the process, despite creating considerable confusion on Capitol Hill with his own mixed signals on health care reform. White House press secretary Sarah Sanders echoed Trump’s line, saying it would be “absolutely ridiculous for Congress to try to place the blame on the president for the inability to get their job done.” 
 
 And when Trump’s endorsement of Roy Moore failed to carry the Alabama Senate candidate to victory last December, the president claimed he was pressured into backing the wrong candidate. Those around him reinforced his claim. 
 
 “There does need to be a recognition of the lousy political advice @POTUS has been getting and it needs to change,” Tony Fabrizio, a top Republican pollster involved in Trump’s 2016 campaign, wrote on Twitter at the time. 
 
 “We’re in a completely different dynamic now where we know President Trump will be perfectly comfortable in a finger-pointing exercise,” said a former senior George W. Bush aide, who claimed his boss, by comparison, “was perfectly fine with owning and taking some of the heat off the Hill leadership” after the 2006 midterms two years before Bush left office. 
 
 A former senior Obama administration official, who recalled cringing when the ex-president used the term “shellacking” to describe the results of the 2010 midterms, said the White House “took stock” of the situation afterward and determined Obama could continue chipping away at his agenda through “either executive authority or working at the state and local level.” 
 
 “I only cringed because it was so true … We were shellacked,” this person said, adding that Obama nevertheless displayed “a willingness to accept responsibility and not wallow in defeat.” 
 
 Should Trump buck that trend by refusing to bear any blame, some Republicans said they would be disappointed — albeit not surprised. 
 
 “The president’s rhetoric is what’s actually energized the left, so it would be hard to put it on Congress if we lost the House,” a senior GOP aide told POLITICO. “But it’s just classic behavior on the part of this president to not shoulder the blame if things go bad, and to definitely take responsibility if things go right.” 
 
 Still, some of Trump’s most steadfast allies say he would be justified to turn his ire toward congressional Republicans if November becomes a bloodbath for the party in power. They claim he has done “everything possible,” like holding back-to-back-to-back campaign rallies last week, to assist GOP candidates battling for their seats or seeking to upset Democratic incumbents. 
 
 “I think [Trump] has done everything that has been asked of him from the Republican Party to … help campaign and raise money wherever they have needed it,” said ex-Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. “President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence has answered that call every time.” ||||| Democrats are tamping down expectations for a “blue wave” two weeks before the midterm elections as key races in the House tighten and winning back the Senate majority looks increasingly out of reach. 
 
 Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Tom Perez Thomas Edward PerezClinton’s top five vice presidential picks Government social programs: Triumph of hope over evidence Labor’s 'wasteful spending and mismanagement” at Workers’ Comp MORE said on CNN's “New Day” that he doesn’t use the term “blue wave,” and added that he’s always thought this year’s races would be close. 
 
 Separately, Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernard (Bernie) SandersOvernight Health Care: Drug industry nervous about Grassley | CDC warns public not to eat romaine lettuce | Sanders unveils new drug pricing bill Sanders and Khanna have a plan to lower your drug prices 2020 Democrats challenge Trump's use of troops at Mexico border MORE (I-Vt.), who's campaigning for Democratic candidates, said he doesn’t believe in a blue wave. 
 
 “I know a lot of people talk about this blue wave. I don’t believe it,” Sanders told “Rising” Hill.TV co-host Krystal Ball. 
 
 “I happen to think that on election night you’re going to find a very close situation and maybe a handful of votes determining whether Democrats are gaining control of the House,” he said. 
 
 The remarks by Perez and Sanders could be seen as a way of motivating the Democratic base. 
 
 Many Democrats are convinced that the 2016 presidential race was lost in part because Democratic voters didn’t show up, perhaps because they thought there was little chance that Republican Donald Trump would win. 
 
 Talk of a blue wave sends the signal that Democrats have races in the bag, and that voters don’t need to come to the polls on Nov. 6. 
 
 “I think it’s really, really smart and if you look at some of our strongest candidates, they’re being very thoughtful and very intelligent on how they’re approaching this, which is always run like your 10 points down,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand2020 Democrats challenge Trump's use of troops at Mexico border Some of us Midwesterners think maybe Amy Klobuchar would do OK as president Banking panel showcases 2020 Dems MORE (D-N.Y.). 
 
 “It’s less of an expectation management game than it is a turnout game,” he added. “Never say ‘we’ve got this.’ " 
 
 At the same time, there are real reasons for Democrats to fret over their chances given President Trump Donald John TrumpTrump: WHCA picking non-comedian for headliner a 'good first step' Five takeaways from Mississippi's Senate debate Watergate’s John Dean: Nixon would tell Trump 'he's going too far' MORE’s rising approval ratings, fallout from the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh Brett Michael KavanaughAvenatti: ‘I will be fully exonerated’ The future of abortion politics is changing Senate barrels toward showdown over Trump's court picks MORE’s confirmation fight and a strong economy the White House has taken credit for delivering. 
 
 Perez still said he has “a lot of confidence” that his party will win back the House. 
 
 Democrats have led Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in virtually every public poll conducted over the past year, and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Monday gave the party a 9-point lead over the GOP in the race to control Congress. 
 
 Some Democrats insist that winning the bare minimum of 23 seats needed to flip the House still amounts to a wave. 
 
 “Winning 23 seats is a wave,” said a Democratic strategist familiar with House races. “The frustration among some Democrats is losing sight of how big of an accomplishment it is. 
 
 “People built expectations for this giant tsunami without the evidence there. The people actually looking at that data, in this fight, know how hard it is and are not taking anything for granted.” 
 
 Perez acknowledged, however, that the race for the Senate presents “a tougher map” for Democrats. 
 
 More than two dozen of the party’s incumbents are defending their seats this year, including 10 in states won by Trump in 2016, and Republicans are eager to expand their slim 51-49 majority by flipping seats in deep-red states, such as North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. 
 
 Democrats believe they have benefited from an enthusiasm gap with Republicans for most of the year, but there are some signs that GOP voters are getting more motivated ahead of Nov. 6. 
 
 Trump has been campaigning across the country and is increasingly using the bully pulpit to steer the national conversation toward issues such as the immigrant caravan headed toward the U.S. border with Mexico — something seemingly designed to fire up his base. 
 
 Early voting in some critical battlegrounds as of Monday found that GOP-affiliated voters are outnumbering the Democratic-affiliated voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, according to TargetSmart data analyzed by NBC News. 
 
 Democratic-affiliated voters outpaced GOP ones only in Nevada, according to the report. 
 
 Democrats are also worried about laws in crucial pockets of the country that could suppress Democratic voters. 
 
 These allegations have become a dominant issue in Georgia’s nationally watched governor’s race between former state House minority leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp. If elected, Abrams would be the first black woman to serve as governor in U.S history. 
 
 An APM Reports analysis found an estimated 107,000 voters in Georgia have been removed from the state’s voter rolls because of the “use it or lose it” law, which removes people who have not voted or made contact with an election official over three years. 
 
 Kemp, who oversees the state’s elections, said his office is following the law and has worked to prevent voter fraud. 
 
 “There are so many ways that Republicans have tried to make voting less accessible to voters over the last two years,” a former DNC aide told The Hill. “We’re really cautious of what the impact of those actions will be going to the polls and how many people are able to vote.” 
 
 Some Democratic strategists are also exercising caution about their midterm prospects because they’re “still a little scarred," in the words of one observer, after Trump’s shock victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonWatergate’s John Dean: Nixon would tell Trump 'he's going too far' Senate Homeland Security chairman requests briefing on Ivanka Trump emails House GOP to hold hearing into DOJ’s probe of Clinton Foundation MORE in the 2016 presidential election. 
 
 Trump has stepped up campaigning for Republicans in the final stretch of the campaign, attracting thousands of Republicans, while expressing confidence about the party’s prospects. 
 
 In recent rallies, the president has also sought to cast Democrats as unfit to govern and has spoken intermittently about a coming “red wave” that would expand the Republican majorities in both chambers. ||||| HOUSTON (AP) — President Donald Trump escalated his immigration rhetoric at a midterm rally in Texas on Monday, falsely accusing Democrats of "encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our borders and overwhelm our nation." 
 
 With weeks to go before Election Day, Trump is seeking to drive Republican turnout with his hard-line immigration policies. He cast the November choice in stark terms before the Houston rally for Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, saying Democrats "have launched an assault on the sovereignty of our country." 
 
 Trump spoke before a massive crowd on behalf of his former foe, who faces a strong challenge from Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. When the two competed in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, Trump would frequently deride his rival as "Lyin' Ted" but said in Texas that their relationship had come a long way. 
 
 "Nobody has helped me more with your tax cut, with your regulation," Trump said, also attacking O'Rourke, as a "stone-cold phony." 
 
 With the midterms drawing near, Trump has emphasized immigration, targeting a migrant caravan heading to the U.S. southern border. The president's focus on immigration politics comes as he seeks to counter Democratic enthusiasm in November. Trump believes that his campaign pledges, including his much vaunted — and still-unfulfilled — promise to quickly build a U.S.-Mexico border wall, are still rallying cries. 
 
 Trump is betting that his latest focus will further erode the enthusiasm gap that began to close during the debate over Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court. But the approach offers both risks and rewards. 
 
 The hard-line rhetoric may be popular among the red-state rural Republicans who will play an outsized role in the top Senate contests. But it may further alienate the moderate Republicans and women in the overwhelmingly suburban races that will decide the House majority — including several in Texas, California and Florida that feature large Hispanic populations. 
 
 On Monday night, Trump called the caravan an "assault on our country" and suggested, without citing evidence, that "Democrats had something to do with it." He added: "We need a wall built fast." 
 
 Earlier Monday, Trump said the U.S. will begin "cutting off, or substantially reducing" aid to three Central American nations because of the caravan. 
 
 In Texas, an enthusiastic crowd packed into Houston's Toyota Center, wearing red Make America Great Again hats and waving signs, including some with the president's new catchphrase, "Jobs vs. Mobs." 
 
 Speaking before Trump took the stage, Cruz made clear that their conflict was behind them and that the two were working together. His biggest applause came when he predicted that "in 2020, Donald Trump will be overwhelmingly re-elected." 
 
 A series of elected state officials were among the warmup speakers, as well as Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump and son Eric Trump, who told the audience that "we are driving the Democrats absolutely nuts." 
 
 Trump gleefully used his latest attack line against Democrats, saying, "Democrats produce mobs, Republicans produce jobs." He declared Democrats would be a "big risk to the American family," and went after some of his favorite targets, including Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, California Rep. Maxine Waters, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. 
 
 The president stressed tax cuts, the strong economy and the hurricane response in the state. He repeated his pledge for a new middle-income tax cut of about 10 percent, though he offered few details on the plan. Trump said they would be "putting it in" next week, though Congress is not in session. 
 
 Trump also criticized so-called globalists, declaring, "You know what I am? I'm a nationalist." 
 
 Trump's Texas stop is part of a campaign blitz that is expected to last until Election Day. 
 
 Although political relationships tend to be fluid, Trump's appearance for Cruz is notable, given that the two were bitter enemies during the 2016 primaries. After Trump insulted Cruz's wife and father, and Cruz refused to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention, it was far from clear that the two would ever put it all behind them. 
 
 But they started rebuilding in the closing days of the campaign and have worked together since Trump took the White House. 
 
 The White House views Cruz as a loyal vote for his agenda. Trump promised he would come to Texas after the Senate race grew closer than expected, with O'Rourke out-fundraising Cruz and drawing large and enthusiastic crowds around the state. Cruz, who is leading O'Rourke in the polls, said over the summer that he would welcome Trump's support, though he has brushed off any suggestion he'd need Trump to win. 
 
 During the 2016 Republican primary, Trump assailed Cruz as a liar and "dishonest politician," insulted his wife's appearance and promoted unsubstantiated claims that Cruz's father had links to President John F. Kennedy's assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald. 
 
 Trump on Monday did not voice any second thoughts about labeling Cruz the son of a presidential killer, telling reporters, "I don't regret anything." 
 
 Cruz gave back as good as he got in 2016. He savaged Trump as a "pathological liar," an "amoral bully" and a "sniveling coward." After Cruz lost the primary, he gave a speech at the Republican National Convention in which he did not endorse Trump and instead called on Republicans to "vote your conscience," drawing boos from the crowd. But he announced his support about a month before Election Day — and won points in Trump's camp for not withdrawing after the "Access Hollywood" tape was released in which Trump bragged about groping women. 
 
 ___ 
 
 Associated Press writer Steve Peoples in New York contributed to this report. ||||| Shocking turnout for first day of early voting in Houston 
 
 Thousands of people were already camped out at a key early voting location in Houston on Monday morning, hours before voting was even set to begin. 
 
 Nearly 2,000 people stood in line outside of the Metropolitan Multi-Service Center on West Gray near River Oaks in a scene that looked more like a Black Friday shopping morning. 
 
 BETO IN THE BURBS: O'Rourke touts willingness to serve all Texans in Conroe visit 
 
 "This is one of the most important elections of our lifetimes," said Cody Pogue, who arrived at 8:30 p.m. on Sunday to make sure he'd be one of the first people to cast a ballot for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke. 
 
 Whoa. This is the line for early voting in #Houston. Literally people camped out last night so they could be among the first to vote. “This is one of the most important elections of our lifetimes,” Cody Pogue tells me pic.twitter.com/swtTEmcjcZ — Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) October 22, 2018 
 
 Just moments later, O'Rourke was across the street firing up his supporters with a bullhorn. 
 
 "Are y'all ready?" O'Rourke said to a cascade of cheers. "Houston, I love you." 
 
 Karen Bard, who was in line more than an hour before the polls opened, said she doesn't normally vote in midterms, but O'Rourke changed that. 
 
 "It's not about me, it's about my kids," Bard said. 
 
 BRACING FOR THE PRESIDENT: Street closures in Downtown Houston for Trump's appearance 
 
 O'Rourke has a half-dozen rallies planned all over the Houston area on Monday to start early voting. 
 
 Those rallies come as U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz brings in President Donald Trump for a rally to back his campaign at the 18,000-seat Toyota Center. Trump took to Twitter just as polls were opening in Texas. 
 
 "Big Night In Texas!!!!" Trump tweeted. 
 
 Big Night In Texas!!!! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2018 
 
 On Sunday, Cruz brought in Gov. Greg Abbott for a rally in Houston to boost GOP turnout. Both warned that O'Rourke represents a national Democratic Party trying to turn Texas into a liberal state. 
 
 "Now there are a whole bunch of national Democrats that want to turn Texas into California," Cruz said calling on his supporters to turn out in big numbers to push back against them. 
 
 Abbott said despite national Democrats wanting to turn Texas blue, he is convinced Cruz will prevail. 
 
 VITAL INFORMATION: When, where can I early vote in Houston? Here's everything you need to know 
 
 "Ted Cruz is going to win because Beto is hostile to Texas values," he said. 
 
 O'Rourke meanwhile objected to the partisan undertones in Abbott's and Cruz's message. In an interview with the Houston Chronicle on Sunday night in Sugar Land, he said this election isn't about Texas being red or blue. 
 
 "Who cares about the partisan color of Texas?" O'Rourke said. "I could give a damn about what party you are in." ||||| Breaking News Emails Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The news and stories that matter, delivered weekday mornings. 
 
 / Updated By Adam Edelman 
 
 Is the "blue wave" turning purple? 
 
 Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven closely watched states, according to data provided by TargetSmart and independently analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab. 
 
 GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed. 
 
 Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data. 
 
 Key Senate races are underway in seven of those eight states and will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the chamber. 
 
 The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in next month's midterm elections. 
 
 Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete. 
 
 In Arizona — where two members of the House, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally, are in a neck-and-neck contest to fill retiring Republican Jeff Flake's Senate seat — 44 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared to 33 percent who had a Democratic affiliation. Twenty-three percent of early voters were not affiliated with either major party, and thus grouped as "other" in NBC News' partisan analysis. 
 
 In Florida — where Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is running for re-election in a tight race against Republican Gov. Rick Scott — 44 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 38 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 18 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 In Indiana — where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is facing a re-election challenge from Republican businessman Mike Braun — 51 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 39 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 10 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 In Montana — where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is up for re-election in a state that President Donald Trump won by 21 points — 46 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 29 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 25 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 In Tennessee — where former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen is in a close race with Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn to fill retiring Republican Bob Corker's Senate seat — 63 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 30 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 7 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 In Texas — where Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is attempting to hold off Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke — 53 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 43 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 4 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 People wait at a polling place in Houston on Monday, the first day of early voting in Texas. Loren Elliott / Getty Images 
 
 On Monday, the first day of early voting in Texas, thousands of people were camped out at an early voting location in Houston hours before it opened, The Houston Chronicle reported. 
 
 And in Georgia — where civil rights groups have sued Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate for governor, saying the method his office uses to verify new voter registrations is discriminatory — 52 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 43 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 5 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 On the other hand, in Nevada — where Republican Sen. Dean Heller is up for re-election in a close race against Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen — 45 percent of early voters had a Democratic affiliation, compared with 38 percent who had a Republican affiliation and 18 percent who were not affiliated with either party. 
 
 The data provided by TargetSmart and analyzed by NBC News also revealed additional patterns in early voting. 
 
 Women voters have outpaced men voters so far in Florida (55 percent to 45 percent), Georgia (54 percent to 46 percent), Indiana (53 percent to 46 percent), Montana (49 percent to 48 percent), Tennessee (52 percent to 48 percent) and Texas (59 percent to 41 percent), the data showed. 
 
 Male voters have outpaced women voters so far in Nevada (49 percent to 47 percent), the data shows. In Arizona, 48 percent of men and 48 percent of women have voted so far. 
 
 Suburban voters have outpaced rural and urban voters in Florida (43 percent suburban, 34 percent urban, 22 percent rural), Georgia (57 percent suburban, 31 percent rural, 12 percent urban), Indiana (45 percent suburban, 39 percent rural, 16 percent urban), and Tennessee (56 percent suburban, 33 percent rural, 11 percent urban). 
 
 Meanwhile, rural voters have outpaced suburban and urban voters in Montana, and urban voters have outpaced rural and suburban voters in Arizona and Texas. 
 
 As of Oct. 22, over 5 million votes have been cast early or absentee in the 2018 midterm elections nationwide. 
 
 Data analysis conducted by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab. Voter file data, collected by TargetSmart, contains information on most voters’ turnout history and selected demographic information.
– With two weeks to go until the midterm elections, passions—and voter turnout—are running high in Texas. In Houston early Monday, thousands of people lined up at a voting location hours before early voting began, the Houston Chronicle reports. Authorities say early voting turnout has been much higher than in 2014 across the state's biggest counties. Renée Cross, senior director for the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, tells the Texas Tribune that the numbers are "very impressive." "We see so much anger or enthusiasm about candidates in much higher numbers than we’ve ever seen," she says. "From a political standpoint, I think there’s just as much energy that we’ve seen in presidential years." In other election news: Trump praises "Beautiful Ted." President Trump appeared at a Houston rally for Sen. Ted Cruz on Monday, where both men made it clear the bitterness of the 2016 campaign was behind them. Before he flew to Texas, Trump told reporters that he now called Cruz "Beautiful Ted" or "Texas Ted" instead of "Lyin' Ted," reports the Washington Post. At the rally, the two men embraced and Cruz told the crowd that he is looking forward to hitting the campaign trail for Trump's re-election bid in 2020. Trump described Cruz's opponent, Beto O'Rourke, as "overrated." "You know what I am? I'm a nationalist." At the Cruz rally, Trump attacked Democrats as a "big risk to the American family" and accused them of "encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our borders, and overwhelm our nation," the AP reports. He also attacked globalists, declaring himself to be a nationalist. GOP may have the edge in early voting. According to data analyzed by NBC News, talk of a "blue wave" may be overstated: In early voting, Republican-affiliated voters have outnumbered Democrats in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas, while Democrats are ahead in Nevada. Trump "plans to distance himself from GOP losses." Insiders tell Politico that while Trump is currently describing the midterm vote as a vote on his presidency, he plans to break with recent precedent and distance himself from the results if there are serious GOP losses. The sources say Trump is likely to blame losses on House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—as well as the media. One GOP insider says Trump has said of McConnell and Ryan: "These are their elections ... and if they screw it up, it's not my fault." Dems lower "blue wave" expectations. Trump may not have to distance himself from results: With congressional races tightening, Democrats have been trying to lower expectations of a "blue wave," the Hill reports. Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez says he believes this year's races will be close and control of the House could rest on just a few votes. (These are the most, and least, political states.)