The 2012 Republican primary is about to enter the elimination round. 
 
 When the GOP presidential candidates meet in Michigan Wednesday for a CNBC debate on the economy, they’ll no longer be looking to make a first impression. With less than two months to go before the Iowa caucuses, there’s a much more urgent objective: survival. 
 
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 reset Allen on GOP debates POLITICO 44 
 
 Herman Cain may not be viable much longer, unless he can manage to move the 2012 conversation away from the allegations of sexual harassment that have plagued his campaign. Flagging conservatives such as Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann can’t afford to muddle aimlessly through another candidate forum. If Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum can’t take advantage of this chaotic moment, they may never get another chance. And Jon Huntsman is running out of time to connect with his attempt at a maverick message. 
 
 With the exception of front-runner Mitt Romney — and perhaps Ron Paul, the libertarian congressman whose devoted base of support never really diminishes or grows — nearly every candidate in the race is almost one misstep away from political death. 
 
 “Voters have formed general impressions of most of the candidates by this point, but a mixed or poor impression hasn’t been fatal,” said Dan Schnur, a former adviser to John McCain’s 2000 campaign. “Going forward, any problems become much more damaging because the clock is ticking.” 
 
 Schnur, who now directs the University of Southern California’s Unruh Institute of Politics, said Cain had helped speed up the winnowing process: “We were probably going to get to this point pretty soon anyway, but the controversy surrounding Cain’s campaign may be serving as a reminder to voters of the stakes involved here.” 
 
 Michigan Republican National Committeeman Saul Anuzis, a Romney supporter, suggested debates were increasingly about “which people make the mistakes and have the most to lose, not the most to gain.” 
 
 “Usually there’s a loser in a debate, not necessarily a winner,” said Anuzis. “I think there will be a desire by all the candidates to stay on [economic] issues and focus on those issues. The question is whether we will get pulled away by the Cain stuff or something else.” 
 
 Cain signaled in a press conference Tuesday that he hopes to move on from battling charges of personal misconduct and get back to talking about policy. With his poll numbers holding up in the low-20 percent range, it’s clear that some of his fans have been giving him the benefit of the doubt so far. 
 
 The CNBC debate – the ninth of the year, and the sixth involving the full GOP presidential field – will test Cain’s ability to hold on to those supporters and turn the page on the worst week of his campaign. ||||| article 
 
 The CNBC debate kicks off tonight in the shadow of the Cain circus. Will the other candidates ignore the elephant in the room, and will Gingrich finally reach the top tier? David A. Graham on what to look for. Plus join Howard Kurtz for a live chat during the debate, starting at 8pm ET. 
 
 After three weeks’ respite, the packed Republican presidential debate season is about to return to full tilt. The GOP field will convene in a Detroit suburb on Wednesday for a debate hosted by CNBC. Using a traditional setup, the debate is supposed to focus on economic issues, including taxation, jobs, and the deficit, but fireworks are likely on a few other topics as well. Here’s what to watch for Wednesday night. 
 
 1. Will the Herman Cain Allegations Take Center Stage? 
 
 Last time around, Herman Cain was a target because his fortunes were rising, along with the popularity of his 9-9-9 plan. Much has happened since, and although his polls numbers have flat-lined, not tanked, repeated allegations of sexual harassment or worse seem to be on their way to derailing the Cain train. How will his rivals handle it? They could attack him directly; even the usually detached Romney edged that way Tuesday, saying the allegations against Cain were serious. But that might be unnecessary and counterproductive. Focusing on Cain’s circus rather than, say, high unemployment is bad for the Republican brand, so they may instead let him bleed slowly as they avert their eyes. 
 
 2. Will the ‘Not-Mitt’ Movement Dent Romney’s Armor? 
 
 Although it’s long been clear that Mitt Romney was the man to beat in the Republican field, the last two weeks have seen the anybody-but-Mitt movement crystallizing like never before. Bookended by scathing attacks by George Will and Erick Erickson—the voices of the Old Republican Establishment and the Upstart Activist Right, respectively—and peaking with the creation of the website Not Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor’s opponents have come together, Transformers-style. But behind whom? With most of the rest of the field fading or too damaged to take up the standard, Jon Huntsman Jr., whose once-promising candidacy hasn’t even gotten as far as spinning its wheels, is making a late play, producing his own anti-Romney ad. Can Huntsman or some other challenger dent Romney’s armor? Or will the unflappable frontrunner parry all blows with the effortless, bland approach he’s used so far? 
 
 3. Will Newt Gingrich Finally Join the First Tier? 
 
 With Cain potentially on the outs, could Newt Gingrich finally be having his moment? The former House speaker could appeal to the same voters as Cain (they agree on plenty, as demonstrated by their lovefest on Saturday), he’s experienced, and his campaign seems to have come back from several prematurely declared deaths. Indeed, he’s rising in some polls. But Gingrich’s previous debate performances have been polarizing. While some of the more cerebral Republican pundits gushed over his oratorical and rhetorical talents, he has a tendency to come across as petulantly contrarian and needlessly pedantic. If he can temper those tendencies, the debate could propel him to the first tier of the race. 
 
 4. Will Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann Show Up? 
 
 Long, long ago—if you can remember that far back—both Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry were first-tier candidates. Their chances at returning to the top tier are slipping away quickly, though Perry’s ample war chest is a crutch. It will be interesting to see how they try to claw back—if at all. Will Perry come across as giddy and drunk, as he did in New Hampshire last month? Will Bachmann figuratively show up? She has been a nonfactor for several debates, but could try to expand on outreach to moms or maybe go big on religion. 
 
 5. Will Serious Economic Plans Finally Make an Appearance?
– With Iowa just two months away, the stakes are high for tonight’s GOP debate. Politico describes it as an “elimination round,” with everyone except Mitt Romney—and maybe the seemingly immovable Ron Paul—“one misstep away from political death." Here’s what to watch for: Will anyone touch Herman Cain’s scandal? Focusing on that circus might hurt the GOP brand, the Daily Beast points out, “so they may instead let him bleed slowly as they avert their eyes.” Who can be the Not-Mitt? Anti-Romney sentiment coalesced this week, but has no standard bearer. Newt Gingrich is gaining some buzz, especially after his heart-to-heart with Cain, so some speculate that he's next. Who matters? “For Huntsman, Santorum, and Bachmann, the debate is totally about relevance and trying to maintain some respectability,” an ex-Huntsman campaign manager says. “Not much more, I don’t think.” Will Rick Perry be sober? Perry is reeling after his, um, interesting New Hampshire speech. Perry can come off “like a deer caught in headlights,” says one strategist. “He’s got to decide, what are the two or three messages I’m going to drive?” What about Mitt? “Romney can begin to play ball-control politics,” says a former McCain adviser. “He just needs to be reassuring and not say anything really dumb."