Re: [UAI] Is the luck or is it skill? You get different results in your two scenarios because the null
hypotheses you are trying to falsify mean differrent things by the
term "Mike".  In one scenario, the null hypothesis is that "One
specific person [Mike] chose good stocks this many times by luck".  In
the other scenario, the null hypothesis is that "all these people
chose stocks and at least one of them (call that one Mike) did this
well by luck."

So the extra people don't provide information about Mike's skill, they
provide alternatives for who "Mike" could be.  If you look at one person
the chances of their being lucky are small, but if you look at a lot
of people, chances of at least one of them being lucky get bigger.


