cera insight gales november recap december forecast forwarded lorna brennan et enron 12 05 2000 11 09 webmaster cera com 11 30 2000 09 05 23 pm lorna brennan enron com cc subject cera insight gales november cera alert cera alert sent thu november 30 2000 title cera insight gales november author n american gas team e mail category alert product line north american gas url http www cera com cfm track eprofile cfm u 5526 1432 alternative url cold november weather heating degree days 22 percent normal twenty fifth fueled withdrawals storage cera estimates average approximately 8 5 billion cubic feet bcf per day month near time record november set 1995 approximately 5 0 bcf per day higher previously expected withdrawal rate normal weather conditions result storage inventories end month 500 bcf year earlier level track dip well record low territory end winter see table 1 december normal weather would result storage withdrawals 17 0 bcf per day average month rate storage inventories would fall 2 0 trillion cubic feet tcf end year first time ever occurred end march cera expects working inventories reduced 606 bcf united states compared previous record low 758 bcf weather high withdrawal rates moved prices higher within wide volatile range residual fuel oil distillate gas prices moving farther resid 4 75 5 00 closer price distillate fuel oil approximately 7 00 strength oil market kept resid distillate range high gas test either boundary range price either distillate resid would move well normal weather cera expects december prices average 6 25 henry hub higher level within range reflective reduced storage inventories although prices abated somewhat recent days continue rise fall weather weather forecasts fundamentals tight return cold weather would quickly drive prices back 6 50 potentially 7 00 henry hub level significant additional demand response likely even response would require time possibility curtailments interruptible loads late winter grown possibility significant price relief appears increasingly remote end follow url html version message associated table come shoot rapids us ceraweek 2001 shooting rapids strategies risks energy future houston february 12 16 2001 information register please visit http www cera com ceraweek account changes edit personal account information including e mail address etc go http eprofile cera com cfm edit account cfm electronic message attachments contain information cambridge energy research associates inc cera confidential may privileged unauthorized disclosure copying distribution use contents message attachments whole part strictly prohibited terms use http www cera com tos html questions comments webmaster cera com copyright 2000 cambridge energy research associates