[Footballguys] Update # 159 11-20  Week 11 Rushing Matchups 

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Hi Folks,

I know many of you have early deadlines this week so I juggled my schedule
to get these early.   Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com for exactly
where I rank players and to determine who to start.   I always receive
emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but
listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just because one matchup
may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start
the player with the best matchup.   Ahman Green may have a horrible matchup
one week but unless you're sitting on Ricky Williams or Marshall Faulk,
Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up against.   The matchup info is
meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.

Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.
http://www.fflm.com/ for more info.   Fantasy Points Allowed by position
numbers are from ESPN.com.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Atlanta's Maurice Smith vs Carolina Defense

Smith was upstaged last week by big Bob Christian who looked great on the TD
pass reception and run.   Smith had 43 yards on 19 carries (2.3 ypc)  Keep
an eye on his health as he was nicked in Sunday's game.   Smith has been up
and down but facing this Carolina defense may be what he needs.   The
Panthers are ranked # 31 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4
weeks and # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   If you've been thinking
about starting Smith, this could be the week.


Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Detroit Defense

Ahman Green was semi quiet running the ball against Atlanta last week
carring 17 times for 62 yards (3.6 ypc)   He'll face a soft defense this
week against the Lions.   Detroit ranks # 26 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last 4 weeks and # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
Green's a sure starter here.


San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Arizona Defense

Everyone keeps talking about the "rookie wall" and Tomlinson just keeps
plugging.   Sunday, he posted 68 yards on 22 carries (3.1 ypc) plus a TD.
Not bad.   This week, he faces the soft Cardinal defense that ranks # 23 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 28 for the year
in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   If Tomlinson's been your guy, I'd
certainly start him again here.


Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs Kansas City Defense

Alexander continues to have a bulldog like hold on the starting RB job.
Coach Mike Holmgren is now softening his stance on Ricky Watters' return
saying Watters might be the 3rd down back when he returns.   But even that
seems to be a couple of weeks away.   Alexander is the man.   He'll face a
Chief defense that ranks # 27 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last 4 weeks.   Alexander has to be licking his chops though at their # 31
ranking in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Baltimore's Jason Brookins vs Jacksonville Defense

Brookins did a nice job last week against Cleveland carrying the ball 21
times for 89 yards (4.2 ypc)   I'd expect him to improve each week as he
gets more comfortable in the role of #1 RB.   He didn't catch any passes so
that's a little bit of a worry.   This week, he faces a Jacksonville Defense
that did a pretty good against Jerome Bettis last week.   They rank # 21 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 11 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   Watch very closely how the team and self appointed
spokesman Shannon Sharpe handle the Elvis Grbac 4 interceptions thing.
Could lead to a more conservative gameplan with a focus on running the ball
more.


Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Cleveland Defense

Corey Dillon showed last week why he gets saddled with the inconsistency
rep.   17 carries for 38 yards (2.2 ypc) won't carry your team.   The sad
thing is he's so hard to predict when he'll break out.   This week, he faces
a Cleveland Defense that's ranked # 28 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks so you'd have to think he has a chance.   The Browns
rank # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs as well.


Chicago's Anthony Thomas vs Minnesota Defense

Thomas didn't make much noise last week with just 58 yards on 23 carries
(2.5 ypc)   Fantasy owners are trying to decide who the real Thomas is.
This week, he'll face a soft Viking defense that ranks # 30 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   I think we'll see him get back on track.   The Bear passing game will
definitely open up some lanes for him.


Miami's Lamar Smith vs Buffalo Defense

The Lamar Smith woes continue.   He showed glimpses of breaking out but
wound up with 53 yards on 19 carries (2.8 ypc)   I'm not as worried about
Travis Minor stealing too much from him as he only managed 9 yards on 6
carries (1.5 ypc)   This Miami running game has faded quickly.   They'll
face a soft Buffalo defense this week that ranks # 22 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 25 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.


New York's Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs Oakland Defense

Barber looked very good Monday while Dayne was awful.   Barber rushed 8
times for 55 yards plus he caught 4 passes for 52 yards.   Dayne, on the
other hand, rushed 4 times for a whopping minus 3 ypc.   (NEGATIVE 0.8 ypc)
The Raider defense isn't much ranking # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks and # 19 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so this is
probably a good matchup.   At least for Barber.   I'd start Dayne at your
own risk until he shows me something.


New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs New England Defense

Start Ricky Williams.   He's rolling.  120 yards on 28 carries (4.3 ypc)
plus another 48 receiving.   The re-emergence of QB Aaron Brooks is a huge
factor and Ricky should keep it up.   New England ranks # 10 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks but I wouldn't let that deter
me at all.


San Francisco's Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs Indianapolis Defense

Hearst continued the miracle story with another fine outing last week.   He
had 92 yards on 17 carries plus he caught 6 passes for 21 yards.   He looks
to be too much for Kevan Barlow to overtake at this point.   Barlow did have
7 carries but it looks pretty clear that Hearst is the guy.  The Colt
defense ranks # 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.
For the year, they rank # 27 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs Tampa Bay Defense

You don't need me to tell you to start Faulk.   Just do it and count your
blessings that you own one of the best players in the universe.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Arizona's Michael Pittman vs San Diego Defense

Pittman ran pretty hard last week gaining 81 yards on 23 carries (3.5 ypc)
but yielded a TD to Thomas Jones last week.   That's not good.   This
Charger defense is definitely one that can be run on as they rank # 24 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They don't give up
many points though as evidenced by their # 8 ranking for the year in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   The Arizona offense was clicking last week (albeit
against Detroit) but it's a little unclear as to exactly how Pittman fits
in.


Carolina's Richard Huntley vs Atlanta Defense

Huntley was much more involved this past week and showed his owners some
signs of life.   He rushed 13 times for 63 yards (4.8 ypc) and also caught 5
passes.   Encouraging signs.   This week he faces a Falcon defense that
could be primed for a letdown after the big Green Bay win.   They rank # 25
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 15 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.


Dallas' Emmitt Smith vs Denver Defense

Emmitt actually looked pretty good last week returning from injury to post
80 yards on 15 carries (5.3 ypc)   He was nicked late in the game so check
his status this week but he looks like he'll be ok for Thursday's game.
The Broncos rank # 16 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4
weeks but are still pretty strong for the year ranking # 9 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.


Denver's Mike Anderson vs Dallas Defense

Anderson posted a whopping 31 yards on 13 carries (2.4 ypc) against the
Redskins last week.   Olandis Gary didn't do any better with 28 yards on 10
carries (2.8 ypc)   At this point, you'd have to say the entire Bronco
offense is in disarray.   WR Rod Smith's injury is a huge factor as they're
simply not the same with him less than 100%.   This week, they face a pretty
good defense in Dallas that ranks # 14 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 10 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   Being a short week will not help matters.


Indianapolis' Dominic Rhodes vs San Francisco Defense

Dominic Rhodes didn't make anyone forget about Edgerrin James but he did
prove what we all were thinking - Being the # 1 RB for Indy is not a bad
thing.   He got the score and also rolled up 67 yards on 18 carries.   And
he'll likely improve.   Not bad for a guy who probably wasn't drafted in
your league.   The 49er defense is average ranking # 18 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 20 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Kansas City's Priest Holmes / Tony Richardson vs Seattle Defense

After a bye week of rest, Holmes will see how he fares against the Seahawk
defense.   Seattle ranks # 19 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last 4 weeks and # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   They're nothing
special but they do a nice job of shutting down Travis Henry and Buffalo
last week.


Oakland's Charlie Garner / Tyrone Wheatley vs New York Giants Defense

Everyone (including me) hoped that Charlie Garner would take advantage of
the opportunity with Wheatley out to show he could be a full time # 1 RB.
Just didn't happen.   Now Wheatley is reportedly back and ready to go and
Garner looks to keep running it between the 20s while Wheatley or Zack
Crockett punch it in at the goalline.   Garner still puts the yards up
though.   Sunday, he rushed for 59 yards and caught another 41.   The Giants
defense ranks # 13 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks
and showed last night they can be vulnerable.


Washington's Stephen Davis vs Philadelphia Defense

Stephen Davis continues to roll up the yards.   Last week, he totaled 84
yards on 23 carries (3.7 ypc)   This week, he faces a decent Eagle defense
that ranks # 17 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and
# 14 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Tony Banks will likely be back at
QB although Kent Graham did fine.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Buffalo's Travis Henry / Larry Centers vs Miami Defense

Travis Henry looked pretty bad last week.  13 carries for 29 yards (2.2 ypc)
just isn't going to cut it for you.   Throwing 2 fumbles on top of that
could put his playing time in jeopardy.  Sammy Morris and Shawn Bryson are
champing at the bit.   Don't forget about Larry Centers.   He had 66 yards
receiving on 8 passes Sunday and those are likely valuable stats in your
league.   The Dolphin Defense ranks # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks so it'll be no cakewalk.


Cleveland's James Jackson / Ben Gay vs Cincinnati Defense

Jackson was a late scratch from Sunday's game and Ben Gay made the most of
his opportunity.   You gotta love this guy.   He's a very hard runner and
while raw, displayed some nice talent.   I'm guessing Gay's play will be the
best "rehab" Jackson could ever receive.   Jackson is reportedly ready to go
against Cincinnati this week.   The Bengals are pretty tough against the run
ranking # 11.   For the year, they rank # 17 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.


New England's Antowain Smith vs New Orleans Defense

Smith struggled against the Rams Sunday night with 36 yards on 15 carries
(2.4 ypc)   I'd expect tough going again this week against the Saints that
rank # 15 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 13
in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   New England seems to be coming back to
earth a bit and you know the Tom Brady / Drew Bledsoe thing has to be a
distraction for the team.


Philadelphia's Duce Staley vs Washington Defense

Any worries Duce Staley owners had about Correll Buckhalter stealing time
went up in smoke last week. (sorry)   Staley looked like the Duce of old
rolling up 102 yards on 26 carries.   He threw in 4 receptions for 31 yards
to boot.   Washington is surprisingly tough against the run ranking # 4 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   It won't be a
cakewalk but still you have to like Staley with the way they're playing now.


Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Tennessee Defense

Bettis was held very much in check last week with the exception of one 40
yard run.   Even with the big run, his totals of 52 yards on 21 carries (2.5
ypc) weren't much.   Won't be much easier this week against a good Tennesee
defense that ranks # 6 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4
weeks.   The Titans shut down Corey Dillon last week who has a similar power
style.   I'd have a hard time not starting Bettis though as he's definitely
the focus of this offense and getting better as QB Kordell Stewart continues
to improve.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Detroit's James Stewart / Lamont Warren / Corey Schlesinger vs Green Bay
Defense

Talk about a muddy situation.   Last week, Lamont Warren, Corey Schlesinger,
and Rueben Droughns each had at least 6 carries.   And just for good
measure, James Stewart is reportedly ready to play this week.   Throw in the
added bonus that Green Bay is very tough and ranked # 3 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   That's enough to make me shy away
from all these guys.   (That and the fact Charlie Batch may throw it 75
times...)


Jacksonville's Stacey Mack vs Baltimore Defense

As we told our readers today, the news isn't good for Fred Taylor.   His doc
is telling him to stay out of the lineup for this week and they're sounding
way too vague for my liking as to when he'll be back.   That probably means
Mack gets the call by default.   He posted a stellar 6 yard on 8 rushes (0.8
ypc) day.   Yes, ZERO point 8.   Elvis Joseph can run back kicks but he only
managed 6 yards on his 3 carries.   And QB Mark Brunell could miss the game
with his leg injury.   All in all, pretty ugly going against the Ravens
Defense who's fallen down to # 12 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last 4 weeks but is still nasty.


Minnesota's Michael Bennett vs Chicago Defense

Bennett got the carries Monday night while Doug Chapman saw no action.
Bennett had 33 yards on 11 carries (3.3 ypc) so you'd have to think he's on
the right track back.   When Culpepper, Moss and Carter play like they did
Monday, it's pretty clear the Vikings won't need a lot from their RB.   This
week he'll face a much tougher opponent in Chicago.   The Bears rank # 5 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and are playing very
well.   For the year, they rank # 6 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so
it'll be a tough matchup coming off a short week.


Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs St. Louis Defense

Dunn and Alstott put up pitiful numbers Sunday.   Dunn had 12 yards on 8
carries (1.5 ypc)   Alstott had 2 yards on 4 carries (0.5 ypc) although he
did get a score.   Granted, it was against a tough Chicago team but that's
awful.   This week, they'll face an injury riddled St. Louis team that ranks
# 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   Even with the
injuries, I don't like either of these RBs here.


Tennessee's Eddie George vs Pittsburgh Defense

It's bad when the QB out rushes the # 1 RB but that's what happened last
week.   George put up 61 yards on 23 carries (2.7 ypc) and seemed to take a
step back.   The trouble with him is that his game is so power oriented,
that when the holes aren't there, he simply can't do much.   This week,
it'll be much tougher against the swarming Steeler defense ranked # 1 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They rank # 3 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'm not one for benching your best players
but this is one matchup you'll want to look at very closely.



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That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups.   Passing Matchups to follow.

Joe

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