new update ppi model inflation book final version dear attached anjam reasoning final version uk ppi pllu model uk inflation book main exposure two ppi indexes pllu dzcv year 2010 ppi output indexes comparable baskets significant difference two presence energy pllu 7 6 model use escalates two indexes factors however energy price fluctuations recent years different models two indexes would reflect better nature drivers anjam concentrated pllu index first shortly construct one dzcv based methodology without brent crude curve new model achieves two main objectives ppi curve significantly robust stable existing one considerably less sensitive input coefficients result us confidence monthly p l well less fluctuations best regards martina x 34327 anjam ahmad 10 03 2000 11 59 martina angelova lon ect ect cc subject new update ppi model inflation book dear followed suggestions happening babe conference call follows 1 use less data unfortunately kicking 1990 makes overall equation lot less robust fact dramatically eliminates possibility using less data model tested rpi month 15 ppi pre empts moves rpi 8 months magnitude oscillations also reduced shows detail rpi forward curve ppi model would reflect peaks humps adequately conclusion therefore propose use model incorporates rpi rpi 15 deviations brent crude long term average new model plotted burgundy compared old ppi depicted blue please note analysis applies pllu separate study needed dzcv ppi index regards anjam x 35383 forwarded anjam ahmad lon ect 09 03 2000 16 52 anjam ahmad 08 03 2000 14 03 martina angelova lon ect ect harry arora hou ect ect maureen raymond hou ect ect zimin lu hou ect ect farouk lalji hou ect ect cc trena mcfarland lon ect ect dale surbey lon ect ect stinson gibner hou ect ect vince j kaminski hou ect ect leandro ibasco corp enron enron subject update ppi model inflation book dear thought might useful incorporate brent crude explanatory variable ppi found deviations dated brent crude long term average 18 80 best form variable use predictions brent forward curve produced global products group used three new equations developed pllu rpi b rpi n c datedbrentcrude 18 8 constant n 14 15 16 reddish curves r squared approx 0 49 f stat approx 32 chart shows projected pllu curve would given equation also three best relations based upon current future rpi pllu rpi b rpi n constant n 14 15 16 greenish curves r squared approx 0 47 f stat approx 45 comparison models see two equations differ short term long term inclusion deviations brent crude leads short term predictions 3 0 3 2 next six months greenish curves predict pllu range 2 5 2 8 next six months curves similar 2009 models including crude break away upside relative falling rpi curve model based purely rpi hugs rpi curve much closely longer term important extent large positions beyond 2009 suggestion could useful differently specified model designed forecast next 3 months using auto regressive auto regressive error terms model would far accurate near term could include information onto front long term model may useful despite fact exposure future time buckets back testing models give similar visual statistical performance data sample used based mainly 1990 new paradigm economy hopefully discuss points later tele conference ideas would appreciated regards anjam x 35383