victor j pereznunez gvtkqtqmitreorg need consider two main camps investment field one camp follows priciples fundamental analysis requires person analyze fundamentals corporation income statements warren buffet belongs group may want consider strong informative prior based experience knowledge specific industries companies group follows principles technical analysis ones study charts movements stock irregardless fundamentals ones trade lot eventually better throwing darts stock pages group example seems applicable may want consider uniform noninformative prior take better long term advisors warren buffet jeff neff others invest companies market victor rich neapolitan wrote preparing talk whether people like warren buffet really better investment analysis simply case thousands people analysis probably well poor simply chance possibly different experiment many people toss coin many times experiment probably throw lot heads thinking conceived following paradox suppose stranger named mike showed office told could pick stocks really well advised year made bundle would suspect knew since chance successful chance alone small suppose instead 10000 guys also showed said could pick stocks well case mike still good results would dismiss success probably due luck since 10000 people likely someone well paradox follows faith mike penalized simply people made claims id interested opinions matter rich _______________________________________________ uai mailing list faqengrorstedu httpssecureengroregonstateedumailmanlistinfouai wed 06 aug 2008 093429 0400 uai luck skill