Early 2015 saw the Labour lead continue to fall, disappearing by the start of March.
(meta data) TITLE: UK Polling Report Follow @anthonyjwells ## Advertisement ## Advertisement ## Pollsters Angus Reid British Election Study British Polling Council Ipsos MORI ## News ## Blogs Adam Bienkov Alex Harrowell By Elections Blog Conservative Home Critical Reaction Danny Finkelstein (£) Dave Hill Dizzy Thinks Election Law Channel Fistful of Euros Green benches Guido Fawkes Harry's Place Hopi Sen Jerry Hayes John Band Kevin Maguire Labour Uncut Left Foot Forward Lib Dem Voice Liberal Conspiracy Lord Norton Luke Akehurst Mark Blumenthal Mark Pack Mark Reckons Matt Wardman Neil Harding New Statesman Next Left Nick Barlow Norfolk Blogger Paul Linford Paul Waugh Platform 10 Political Hack UK Political Scrapbook Polling Observatory Slugger O'Toole Socialist Unity Spectator Coffee House Straight Statistics Stumbling & Mumbling Three Line Whip Tom Greeves ## Advertisement ## Disclaimer Copyright Anthony Wells 2004-2013. The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and in no way reflect the views of YouGov plc. ### Privacy Policy ## Articles & FAQs ### Contact UK Polling Report ### About UK Polling Report ### Electoral bias ### Sampling ### Weighting ### Likelihood to vote ### Shy Tories? ### Wording ## Archive August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 ## Stuff Subscribe in a reader ## Eight weeks to go 13 Mar 2015 Here are this week's polls YouGov/S Times (6/3) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% Opinium/Observer (6/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7% Populus (8/3) – CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% Ashcroft (8/3) – CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8% YouGov/Sun (9/3) – CON 35%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (10/3) – CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (11/3) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% Ipsos MORI/Standard (11/3) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (12/3) – CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% Populus (12/3) – CON 29%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6% After two months of very little movement there is finally some sign of a shift. YouGov's daily poll seems to have flipped over into showing a Tory lead – four of their five polls this week showed a Conservative lead. Populus is still showing a Labour lead, as did the monthly Ipsos MORI poll this week, but it's the underlying trends that count and, for now at least, the UKPR polling average puts the Tories into a tiny lead – CON 33%(nc), LAB 32%(-2), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 15%(nc), GRN 6%(nc). Scottish and Welsh polls YouGov also produced Scottish and Welsh polls this week. The Welsh polling is here, and had topline Westminster figures of CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 10%, UKIP 14%. The Scottish polling is here and has topline figures of CON 18%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 46%, UKIP 2%. The SNP lead is down two points since the previous YouGov Scottish poll at the start of February, but remains at a formidable 19 points. The Scottish poll also included some questions designed to tease out how effective Labour attempts to fight the SNP with a "vote SNP get Tory" sort of message. The short answer is not very. Essentially, for such an approach to work SNP voters would need to believe that returning SNP MPs really would make a Tory government more likely, would need to think a Conservative government was significantly worse than the alternative and would need to consider avoiding a Tory government as more important to them than the opportunity of returning lots of SNP MPs. All of these requirements are quite weakly represented amongst SNP voters – only 27% of SNP voters buy the argument that more SNP MPs will make a Conservative government more likely and while 38% of SNP voters think a Labour government at Westminster would be better for Scotland than a Tory one, only 15% think there's "much" difference, and 49% think there's little difference at all. Finally, even if SNP voters did think that returning SNP MPs would make a Tory government more likely, by 46% to 31% they'd rather have a Tory government and lots of SNP MPs than a Labour government and not many. Week 10 The debate debate was still rolling at the start of the week, but has thankfully now faded out a bit. The rival bid to host the debates online by the Guardian, Telegraph & Youtube have said they they would host a five way debate before the end of March, so meeting David Cameron's demands on timing. Otherwise there has been no further progress There was debate earlier in the week about whether the government should commit to the NATO target of 2% spending on defence. YouGov asked about Defence spending last month and found 49% think we should spend more on defence, 16% less and 20% about the right amount. Defence spending is an interesting subject as it does at least divide opinion. Most spending issues are really one way streets – the vast majority of the public think spending on things like the NHS, policing and education is a good thing and would like more of it, it's just a case of what governments can afford and how they fund it. Equally opinion polls asking what should be priority for cuts always find overseas aid top of the list. Defence is one of those few issues where there is both a significant chunk of people who think spending money on it is a bad thing that should be cut, and a significant chunk of people who think it is a good thing that should be protected. Welfare is another. Nigel Farage got into a row over discrimination laws – appearing to say that UKIP would repeal discrimination laws, but later saying he meant only laws on discriminating on the grounds of nationality. When it comes to discrimination on grounds of nationality, I expect we will find most people agreeing with Nigel Farage – there has not been any polling on what he said yet, but looking back YouGov found in 2011 that 51% of people thought companies should prioritise British workers, even if there are better qualified foreign workers. What may be less good for UKIP is if the political row around Farage's statement damages the party's already somewhat shakey image on racism – last month ComRes found 44% of people agreed with the statement that UKIP were racist, up from 32% last year. By the end of the week the main political issue appeared to be how many kitchens Ed Miliband has. I think it's fair to say that's the sign it hasn't really been a huge news week. Onwards to Budget week The budget is on Wednesday, one of the few big set pieces we've got before the election that we can reasonably assume most people really will notice, and which does have the possiblity to actually shift votes. As I say most years, people are often too ready to assume that the budget is an opportunity for the Chancellor, when often it's a bullet to be dodged – there are plenty of instances of budgets damaging a government and not that many of them providing a real boost. Nevertheless, the timing means this is likely to be an extremely political budget and we shall see if it has any effect The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc and the Guardian are below (the Polling Observatory team's projection should finally make it's proper debut this coming week). All predict a hung Parliament, and all continue to predict the Conservatives winning the most seats. Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 285(-1), LAB 279(+1), LD 22(nc), SNP 40(nc), UKIP 3(nc) Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 288(+2), LAB 271(-9), LD 26(+2), SNP 42(+4), UKIP 1(nc) May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 281(+5), LAB 263(-8), LD 24(+1), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 4(+1) Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 279(+4), LAB 265(-6), LD 27(+1), SNP 53(+1), UKIP 4(nc) Filed under: Round up 273 Comments » ### 273 Responses to "Eight weeks to go" « Previous peter crawford No boundary changes since 2005. come on…we are better than that…surely!? there were quite extensive boundary changes between 2005 and 2010. scotland, for example, lost more than seats… March 14th, 2015 at 7:58 pm On the top left of this page is Anthony's Election Guide. Behind that there is a list of battleground constituencies for each party, starting with the smallest swing needed to win the seat. If you click on the Lab and Tory battleground seats you'll get a good indication of where those seats could go. March 14th, 2015 at 7:59 pm What's noticeable, even by me, is that the target seat lists table does not include a section for SNP and nor for UKIP? Times are changed I suppose. I also noticed that the payback above a 5% swing to Labour is very poor for them. March 14th, 2015 at 8:19 pm CHRIS LANE1945 "BRIAN NICHOLSON and NORBOLD. One poll does not make a victory; many twists and turns ahead." Really? And there was me thinking it was all over. It's a good job you're here, Chris, to put me right. Still, I see another 35% tonight….. March 14th, 2015 at 8:25 pm Brian Nicholson @David Welch To those who have commented that the YG Scotland poll should have given a third preference choice to SNP voters, of having in May a large number of SNP MPs together with a Labour government, there was no point in YG asking about an impossible situation. __ On May 8th, and subsequently, a Labour government supported by a large number of SNP MPs is a highly likely outcome, and no amount of bluster will discount that option. March 14th, 2015 at 8:28 pm I see Ross Skye & Lochaber is their 3rd safest – so forget what I said about Lib Dems keeping their 5 safest seats. I am going to go through and apply UNS with Lib Dems on 8% and see which party gains most. March 14th, 2015 at 8:33 pm @Brian @David I think you may be missing the point about why they did not give that option. See Anthony's write up above "The Scottish poll also included some questions designed to tease out how effective Labour attempts to fight the SNP with a "vote SNP get Tory" sort of message" They deliberately did not give that option as they were testing what people would do in a squeeze to see if the current Labour messaging was likely to work or not. March 14th, 2015 at 8:34 pm Thanks, I talk to myself here, to keep calm and carry on. OPINIUM Poll being tweeted. Level pegging in England; so a 5.7% swing being posited March 14th, 2015 at 8:35 pm @ Couper 2802, The Lib Dems are contesting over 600 seats. If they get ~5% in the ones where they are not competitive, it's entirely possible for them to get 45% in the ones they're defending and still have a national average of 7%. Obviously in real life it's going to be much more patchy than that and I think the Lib Dems are massively over-optimistic about their chances, but the point is, their terrible national polling doesn't necessarily mean they'll have a problem winning seats. The SNP are only on 4 or 5%, after all. March 14th, 2015 at 8:37 pm "RAF What's noticeable, even by me, is that the target seat lists table does not include a section for SNP and nor for UKIP? Times are changed I suppose." The swings required for Ukip to win any seats other than the 2 the currently have are huge. I agree that when AW compiled the lists he did not envisage the SNP position at this stage to be as strong as it is today. They also need huge swings for most Lab seats but are likely to achieve at least some of those huge swings. March 14th, 2015 at 8:37 pm David Welch It's also the client (in this case the Times) who decide the questions – not the pollster. March 14th, 2015 at 8:38 pm Andy Shadrack Do we get a YouGov/Sunday Times poll tonight as well? March 14th, 2015 at 8:38 pm After last week's freak results, you cannot argue that we're not good neighbours. Well done today. Talk at the Labour spring event at the ICC was of little else. So a few Lab leads now. Reversion, MOE, or a slight move back to the figures wecwere getting the last few months? Crosby is running out of time. March 14th, 2015 at 8:38 pm DAVID WELCH To those who have commented that the YG Scotland poll should have given a third preference choice to SNP voters, of having in May a large number of SNP MPs together with a Labour government, there was no point in YG asking about an impossible situation. Doubtless YouGov asked the questions their paymaster [the Thunderer] told them to ask. A Lab minority government with SNP C&S is still one of the more probable outcomes in May, whether Lab get 0 or 40 Scottish seats. March 14th, 2015 at 8:39 pm Anthony Wells Richard – I did wonder when anyone was actually going to bother reading the explanation for it! ;) March 14th, 2015 at 8:39 pm I don't normally predict polling results, but I deduced, from AW's round up,that tonight's YG ST poll has a Con lead. As he knew what this poll contains, when he wrote it on Friday evening, any Labour lead would have moderated the tone of that report just a tinge, I would assume. We will see how well he has stonewalled later. I've just reflected on the word tinge. We used to have a contributor Tinged Fringe. . March 14th, 2015 at 8:44 pm Andy Shadrack "Do we get a YouGov/Sunday Times poll tonight as well?" We do – and not only that, tomorrow you get my exciting summary of the last 3 weeks YG & Populus polling in Scotland as well! (saying just what it did last week, and the week before, and …..) March 14th, 2015 at 8:45 pm New thread March 14th, 2015 at 8:48 pm @Old Nat @David Welch It is amazingly kind of YouGov and the Times to pay for questions to help LiS determine whether their strategy is working. There was also a question on the NHS which is devolved but has been the subject of a LiS campaign. March 14th, 2015 at 8:49 pm @ BristolianHoward, No, there's a target list for the SNP. It's right here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/region_scotland/ ;) March 14th, 2015 at 8:49 pm @ Couper 2802, To be fair they need a lot of help. March 14th, 2015 at 8:50 pm David Welch Thanks to those who put me right on who sets the questions in YG polls commissioned by newspapers. And to Richard, I comment that I did read AW`s paragraphs on Scottish polling. But I felt he didn`t bring out the significance of the 31% who preferred not to have a large number of MPs of the party they were intending voting for. Surely it is very unusual for a third of a party`s supporters two months before a GE not to want that party to win as many seats as possible. March 14th, 2015 at 9:04 pm Amber Star @ Anthony, Richard, I read it. I'd have thought Roger Mexico would have read it too – hence me being baffled by his sneering & calling me "silly" for picking up on Anthony's ATL comment. Shifting some of that 31% from SNP to Labour could be key to the 2015 GE. March 14th, 2015 at 11:48 pm « Previous « Friday's polls Latest ComRes and Opinium figures » ### Basic swingometer ### Advanced swingometer ## Latest Voting Intention 5 Jul2325 15 22Lab +23 Jul2418 20 23Con +125 Jun2220 19 22 Tie25 Jun2624 22 12Con +220 Jun2026 16 23Lab +320 Jun2426 18 20Lab +219 Jun2020 21 23BRX +214 Jun2121 19 24BRX +310 Jun1719 22 26BRX +49 Jun2327 17 22Lab +47 Jun2627 17 18Lab +16 Jun1820 20 26BRX +65 Jun1819 22 25BRX +31 Jun1819 23 23 Tie30 May2026 16 24Lab +230 May1722 16 26BRX +429 May1919 24 22LD +222 May2833 13 12Lab +521 May2731 15 14Lab +421 May2131 13 19Lab +1020 May2226 12 25Lab +117 May2732 13 13Lab +517 May2424 18 18 Tie16 May2229 11 24Lab +514 May2527 15 16Lab +2 ### ...More ## Poll Graphs ### All ### YouGov ### ICM ### Populus ### Ipsos MORI ### ComRes ## European Polls ### EU Referendum ### European Elections ## Scottish Polls ### 2015 Voting Intention ### Historical Voting Intention ### Independence ### 2014 Referendum ## London Polls ### Mayoral Voting Intention 2012 ### Mayoral Voting Intention 2008 ## Historical Polling ## AV Referendum 2011 ## 2005-2010 ## 2001-2005 ## 1997-2001 ## 1992-1997 ## 1987-1992 ## 1983-1987 ## 1979-1983 ## 1974-1979 ## 1970-1974 ## Messagespace
train07357
2015 United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling.
Following this, Labour's lead over the Conservatives began to fall as UKIP gained support from them as well, and by the end of the year Labour were polling at 39%, compared to 33% for the Conservative Party and 11% for UKIP. 
 UKIP received 26.6% of the vote at the European elections in 2014, and though their support in the polls for Westminster never reached this level, it did rise up to over 15% through that year. 2014 was also marked by the Scottish independence referendum. Despite the 'No' vote winning, support for the Scottish National Party rose quickly after the referendum, and had reached 43% in Scotland by the end of the year, up 23 points from the 2010 general election, largely at the expense of Labour (−16 points in Scotland) and the Liberal Democrats (−13 points). In Wales, where polls were less frequent, the 2012–2014 period saw a smaller decline in Labour's lead over the second-placed Conservative Party, from 28 points to 17. These votes went mainly to UKIP (+8 points) and Plaid Cymru (+2 points). The rise of UKIP and SNP, alongside the smaller increases for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party (from around 2% to 6%) saw the combined support of the Conservative and Labour party fall to a record low of around 65%. Within this the decline came predominantly from Labour, whose lead fell to under 2 points by the end of 2014. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrat vote, which had held at about 10% since late 2010, declined further to about 8%.