Moscow is, no doubt, capable of launching a gray-zone or ambiguous conflict, but Ukraine indicates that it may be unable to control the course of such a war, particularly in the short term. It is impossible to say if Russian leaders will conclude that the attempts at political warfare and irregular warfare in Ukraine were ill-conceived or poorly executed-possibly both. If the purpose was to avoid escalation to a conventional war, then the operation failed. Moscow may conclude that repeating such an operation is too fraught with risk and unpredictability. However, Russia more likely will use the lessons from Ukraine to refine how it goes about political warfare, particularly where use of conventional force is prohibitive. Undoubtedly, the Ukraine case offers a significant amount of **data** and experience for Russia's military and civilian intelligence services: GRU, FSB, and SVR.