Forecasting Issues of Wireless Communication Networks’ Cyber Resilience for An Intelligent Transportation System: An Overview of Cyber Attacks <s> Expert Forecasting Cyber Resilience of Variants of Creating VANET/ITS <s> Abstract This paper serves as an introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process — A multicriteria decision making approach in which factors are arranged in a hierarchic structure. The principles and the philosophy of the theory are summarized giving general background information of the type of measurement utilized, its properties and applications. <s> BIB001 </s> Forecasting Issues of Wireless Communication Networks’ Cyber Resilience for An Intelligent Transportation System: An Overview of Cyber Attacks <s> Expert Forecasting Cyber Resilience of Variants of Creating VANET/ITS <s> In this paper it is shown that the principal eigenvector is a necessary representation of the priorities derived from a positive reciprocal pairwise comparison judgment matrix A=(aij) when A is a small perturbation of a consistent matrix. When providing numerical judgments, an individual attempts to estimate sequentially an underlying ratio scale and its equivalent consistent matrix of ratios. Near consistent matrices are essential because when dealing with intangibles, human judgment is of necessity inconsistent, and if with new information one is able to improve inconsistency to near consistency, then that could improve the validity of the priorities of a decision. In addition, judgment is much more sensitive and responsive to large rather than to small perturbations, and hence once near consistency is attained, it becomes uncertain which coefficients should be perturbed by small amounts to transform a near consistent matrix to a consistent one. If such perturbations were forced, they could be arbitrary and thus distort the validity of the derived priority vector in representing the underlying decision. <s> BIB002
In the application of the described synergetic approach, even for the qualitative assessment of cyber resilience of "hybrid" of VANET/ITS and forecasting its vulnerabilities, there are essential restrictions. Firstly, this study only considers the combination of two technologies, DSRC/802.11p and LTE-V, although in reality the synthesis of new cyber systems from the whole cascade of technologies "full hybrid communication mix" type can be required  . Secondly, it is considered that in a new cyber system the condition of vulnerability is static; it can only disappear, arise or be transformed to another one. Real vulnerabilities have dynamic properties and are capable of continuing modification throughout the life cycle of cyber systems and under the influence of external factors; thus, the description of the subsequent states requires the use of more difficult scientific approaches and methods. Thirdly, the forecasting of a new cyber system (for example, "hybrid") is based in the assumption that its development is determined. The indisputable complexity of the majority of cyber systems (which are practically all in the sphere of communication technologies and safety) demands the consideration of the processes related to them as stochastic, i.e., developing on various ways with various probabilities. Nevertheless, even taking into account all sufficiently essential restrictions of a definite answer (at least qualitative, not to mention the calculation of any quantitative measures) it is not possible to receive. Therefore, in VANET/ITS, the existing vulnerabilities can disappear, appear again or become amplified; some of these will lead to the strengthening of cyber resilience, and some will have the opposite effect. The main reason for such uncertainty is that the existing methodology and the tools serving information security do not allow the forecasting of a condition of difficult cyber systems, in feature applicable in practice, i.e., having the sufficient level of pragmatism. For such a case, one of the only ways of forecasting is to use up-to-date expert estimates. As tools, the hierarchy analysis method of Saati BIB001 (conditionally the first method) in combination with a sampling method (conditionally the second method) is considered by authors. The first method includes procedures of synthesis and the analysis of multiple judgments of experts concerning the priority of indicators and the choice of rational options among alternatives. As alternatives, the options of development VANET/ITS considered in Chapter 1 can act here: the "standardized" VANET (DSRC/802.11p), "mobile" VANET (LTE-V), and "hybrid". All of the aforementioned alternatives rely in the majority of cases on modern wireless technologies, but at the same time they have specifics in the organization of communications within the implementation of the aforementioned concept. Indicators describing the most essential properties of alternative information and telecommunication systems, and changing the values in time, can be, for example: a cyber security vector as a part of indicators of confidentiality, integrity, availability, and non-repudiation; and productivity vector as a part of indicators of throughput ability, multi-service and timeliness. The offered indicators are interconnected; for example, requirements to timeliness characterize availability, etc. Therefore, the created generalized criterion of estimation of cyber resilience of ITS telecommunication component considered essential internal properties of a cyber system can be presented in the form of joint conditional probability of implementation of requirements for cyber security and productivity. The second method includes statistical research of the general properties of objects (alternatives) on the basis of the studying of the properties only of the sample. The judgments received by the first method are static, and their values do not allow solving a problem of forecasting, because its decision is based on the dynamic change of priorities. The analytical solution of the specified task is in BIB002 , where for receiving estimates of coordinates of an own vector the sampling method is used. The received indicators represent continuous differentiated functions of time. Therefore, it is possible to execute the differentiation of these functions to define growth rates of the studied priorities. Dependences on the change of priority growth rates for three alternative options of the organization of VANET/ITS communications obtained by authors show that the rate of change of a priority, which is a defining property of cyber security for the first alternative (DSRC/802.11p), is negative. Its biggest absolute value is predicted in the first years, and after that this value decreases. Priorities change tempo and are approximately identical to those of the two other alternative options. The paired relations of the received similar derivatives have allowed the comparison of growth rates of the extent of realization of each property for the considered alternatives. This study shows that the rate of change of the property of cyber security for the second alternative, LTE-V, is highest in the first years, which represents the greatest efficiency of its implementation in the nearest future. In prospect, the effect of its implementation in comparison with other alternatives falls. In the medium-term and long-term forecast, it is expedient to develop the third alternative, "hybrid", that does not contradict global trends.