While Trump uses the Twitter handle, @realDonaldTrump, markets are trading based on which Trump persona is on display and markets need to know which is the real Donald Trump - the one that delivered an impressive State of the Union and is focused on lower taxes and regulation, or the Trump that seems to hold grudges and gets focused on tangential issues?

I think this chart shows quite clearly that markets have been trading in line with what Trump is doing - there are clearly other factors such as the Fed and the European elections, but this chart does a very nice job cutting through the noise and showing the importance of Trump on the markets.

The market had some Inauguration Jitters coming into the inauguration as there was a high degree of uncertainty of how POTUS would act or behave.

He spurred the market with a busy first week, starting with some executive orders on shortly after inauguration and culminating with orders to allow the Keystone pipeline to proceed.

That rally was undone by the Immigration Executive Order that came out late Friday – undoing much of the ‘presidential’ behavior of the first week.

We went through a period of calm, a brief, small pop (that I couldn’t find attribute to Trump) and then another period of little to nothing going on.

Then, he was in D.C. and tax focused, amongst other policy initiatives, where he seemed to tone down the rhetoric that had concerned the market, while focusing on the things that the market liked – lower taxes and less regulation. I think the meeting with Abe from Japan occurred during this period as well.

Then we held steady as the market had some State of the Union jitters, which the impromptu press conference did little to contain.

Without a doubt he then delivered what was viewed as a very successful and conciliatory State of the Union address. Both sides of the aisle cheered parts and the markets did well.

Then he seemed to focus on Russia & wiretapping in a Tweetstorm that has left many shaking their head and wondering what happened to the Donald Trump that had stood up on Tuesday and so clearly led the nation.

While we have the Fed, French Elections, Greek Debt, OPEC and dozens of other stories driving the market – I still think that what matters most for markets is which Donald Trump stands up?