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The Bundesnachrichtendienst (Federal Intelligence Service) BND is Germany’s version of the CIA, and it has just released a report on the threat posed by climate change and CO2 emissions. It claims that the conflicts of the future will be over CO2 emission allowances!

Image: Cropped from photo by A.Fiedler, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 Generic license.

First, readers need to be cautioned that such reports issued by intelligence agencies (always eagerly released to the public) often times have very little to do with reality, and most are designed to manipulate public sentiment. Those familiar with climate science will quickly put the report on par with reports of Martians preparing to attack the planet. In simple terms: it’s a lot of BS.

Germany’s leading political daily, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) wrote yesterday a piece titled: Bundesnachrichtendienst sounds the alarm on climate change.

The good news: “Energy supply security no longer an issue”

Before getting into the scary CO2 climate conflict details from the BND report, there are some very good news – news we’ve suspected all along – especially amid all the reports on the discoveries of huge shale gas and crude oil reserves popping up almost daily. The BND report writes (my emphasis):

The conflicts of the future now revolve around carbon dioxide. Energy supply security is no longer an issue.”

The bad news however, so projects the BND, is that future conflicts will be about “who will be able to emit how much CO2.” Countries will be fighting over CO2 emission rights, BND scenarios suggest.

Now that there are no longer any natural developments left to fight over like water, oil, food, living space, natural resources, etc., the German government seems to be creating an artificial global conflict by designating CO2 as a pollutant that mustn’t be emitted. Too bad the BND never bothered reading the latest scientific literature on global temperatures and CO2 climate sensitivity. Expect the German government to eagerly use the BND report to justify more intervention into private lives.

Wikipedia writes that the “BND acts as an early warning system to alert the German government to threats to German interests from abroad. It depends heavily on wiretapping and electronic surveillance of international communications.” Somehow from these activities the BND has concluded that climate is the worst threat.

Green Party officials immediately seized on the report. The FAZ quotes Green Party chief Simone Peter: “Whoever keeps using fossil energies such as coal and oil, accelerates climate change, exacerbates international conflicts, and is messing with the coming generations of the future.“

The BND writes that the problem is that emerging countries will emit increasing amounts of CO2 as they develop, thus quickly exhausting the world’s emission allowances, which in turn will lead to international conflict.

Another problem is America’s booming shale gas revolution, which will act to depress prices worldwide. Consequently renewable sources will have no chance to compete. Cheap US coal is already being exported by the USA to Germany, throwing sand into the gears of the country’s renewable energy transition. The FAZ adds:

And the earlier worries of oil and gas reserves running out are gone. [..] The reason for this is new technologies that have made it possible to exploit previously in accessible reserves.”

Again the historical pattern of false doomsday scenarios is once again clear and confirmed…developing, unexpected technology repeatedly canceling earlier seemingly certain projections of disaster. Five years ago few people believed the world had enough reserves of fossil fuels to last 50 years. That was one of the argumentation pillars used by green energy proponents. Today we find ourselves practically drowning in fossil fuels. Prices are in a free fall.

Any journalist investing 30 minutes time researching earlier projections made by intelligence services globally will find most of them at one time or another issued doomsday reports of “fossil fuels running out and global conflict erupting as a result.”

Expert: CO2 conflict claims are “pure comedy”

These earlier doomsday projections probably were legitimate at the time, as it did appear reserves were in decline: The data suggested this to some extent. But the latest projections that CO2 will lead to conflict are not even based on data and observations, but on bogus computer scenarios. They are utterly baseless.

In an email, geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning called the BND’s latest CO2 conflict claims “pure comedy” and “brain-washing”.

The BND also states that in the future there is going to be a “CO2 disposal problem” because CO2 concentrations are expected to reach the critical 450 ppm level, a level that activist scientists say may cause the climate “to tip”.