Improved Economy Doesn't Lead to Popping of Corks in Atlanta New York Times View Comments View Comments ATLANTA, Nov. 14 — This city, which boomed even more than the rest of the country in the 1990's and busted even harder when the century turned, may well be the epicenter of the economy's emerging recovery. Every day, nearly around the clock at the airport here, dozens of workers in hulking trucks are moving enough dirt to build a two-mile-long, 70-foot-high hill for a new runway. Hotels are fuller than they were a year ago, state tax revenues are rising again and the Atlanta area added more than twice as many jobs to its economy during the 12 months that ended in September as any other metropolitan area, the Labor Department says. For all of the encouraging signs, however, the economic mood here has remained decidedly measured. If anything, it seems far more similar to the anxiety of the last couple of years than the breathless optimism that filled the 90's, many workers, business executives and economists say. "If you look back over the last couple years, this is the first time we've made it to October or November without seeing the economy turn down again," said James H. Reese, president of Randstad North America, which runs 28 temporary-help offices in the area. "But we're not ready to scream victory or wave the flag by any stretch of the imagination." In this way, the city seems typical of much of the country, where economic growth is finally fast enough to create jobs but many people worry that the good news will be fleeting. There are reasons for the caution. Many of the new jobs here are only temporary, and even many of the permanent ones pay less than those in the shrunken manufacturing and technology sectors did. Personal income growth continues to trail inflation in Atlanta, according to Economy.com, a research company that follows regional trends. The bankruptcy rate has remained almost 35 percent higher this year than it was in 2000. Maria Del Conte says she is thrilled with her temporary job as an administrative assistant at an engineering company north of the city, having lost two other jobs in the last two years. But Ms. Del Conte is still making about 25 percent less than she did before 2001, when she worked as a meeting planner for pharmaceutical companies. "Because of the economy, there is no chance of becoming a permanent employee" in her new job, said Ms. Del Conte, who lives in Kennesaw, an Atlanta suburb, with her teenage daughter. Business executives say they remain chastened by the uneven growth of the last three years, unsure whether this burst of optimism will be the one that does not fade. The economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter of this year, the fastest pace since 1984, but it was helped by government stimulus in the form of a tax cut and historically low interest rates. "I don't think we're far enough into this recovery — if it is a recovery — to know," said Emory Brock, the director for economic development in Clayton County, just south of Atlanta, who holds a job that normally breeds boundless enthusiasm. "It's still wait and see." Little of the new hiring here is happening at the city's biggest employers. Executives at Delta Air Lines continue to discuss the possibility of more pay cuts, for example. United Parcel Service has become more efficient over the last year, allowing it to handle more business without adding workers. In a sign of the circumspection, some economists have even reviewed the employment statistics. So far, nobody has discovered obvious flaws. But even if the Labor Department eventually revises its initial employment estimates to bring Atlanta's gain more in line with the rest of the nation's, the pickup in the local economy seems clear. In the third quarter, Georgia took in 4.2 percent more tax revenue than it did a year earlier, helped by an even larger rise in sales tax receipts. It was the first year-over-year increase in overall tax revenues since early 2001, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. New claims for jobless insurance have fallen more rapidly here than they have in the rest of the country, according to the federal government. While the national travel downturn continues, the number of travelers at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport is growing, creating the need for the new runway, the airport's fifth, and a new terminal due to be built soon. "The Southeast is doing better than it was a year ago, without a doubt," said John Robertson, a senior economist at the Atlanta Fed. "And Georgia seems to have really turned the corner in advance of the nation." The region may have struggled more than any other part of the country in 2001-2, as its manufacturing base withered. Factory jobs continue to fall victim to new technologies and move to lower-wage countries. But the Southeast's reliance on military spending, which is increasing, and on foreign car manufacturers, which are faring far better than their Detroit rivals, has made up for some of the job loss elsewhere. For the first time since 1982, the South — stretching from Florida to Oklahoma, as the government defines it — had the lowest unemployment rate of any region in September. The Lockheed Martin Corporation, the big military contractor, has about 700 more workers in its fighter-jet factory in Marietta, just north of Atlanta, than it did at the start of the year. A Nissan plant in Canton, Miss., outside of Jackson, began making minivans, pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles in May and now employs about 4,000 people, with a typical starting hourly wage of $13 or $18. By next spring, the company expects the work force to exceed 5,000 people. Atlanta, as the region's transportation hub — the city where you have to make a stopover in order to get to heaven, according to an old joke — often benefits from nearby growth. The influx of people from other parts of the country has also helped. Their arrival has created jobs for construction workers, teachers, doctors and nurses, among others. At the same time, many foreign companies, drawn by Atlanta's airport and the South's relatively low salaries, have set up their American base here, according to Economy.com. Mark A. Kaiser, the chief executive of Cendian, which manages the shipment of chemicals, has noticed the economy's change in the number of people who say no to a job offer. Only about 5 percent of people whom Cendian tried to hire turned it down a year ago. Now, more than 30 percent do. In a strip mall north of the city, employees at a Randstad temporary-help agency say more executives ask them to look for workers who look like good candidates for permanent jobs eventually. The agency's clients, which include a manufacturer of doors and a distributor of tea, have also been hiring slightly more temporary workers than they were a few months ago. "The signals suggest this is much more than the little hiccups that we have had in the past," said William E. Carpenter, a Randstad vice president who oversees the company's Atlanta offices. The metaphors vary, but the outlook is unusually uniform: the economy seems poised for a period of decent growth, better than the last couple of years but well short of a true boom. 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