Apportionment – Page 8 – The ELLIS Insight Menu HOME THE ELLIS INSIGHT ABOUT JIM ELLIS REDISTRICTING ALABAMA ARKANSAS CALIFORNIA COLORADO DELAWARE FLORIDA GEORGIA IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS LOUISIANA MAINE MASSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN SIGN UP SERVICES OVERVIEW CONTACT US MEDIA Search for: Category Archives: Apportionment Census by District By Jim Ellis Aug. 17, 2021 — We can now see exactly where each congressional district in the country stands in terms of population. The Census Bureau delivered the state redistricting data last week, and the Daily Kos Elections site data team segmented the numbers into individual congressional districts. Below is a chart of the 38 states that have more than two districts, isolating the CDs that are the most over and under populated. The “High” column depicts the district that is the most over-populated in the state, while the “Low” is the one requiring the most new residents. The “+/-” column shows how many districts in the particular state are over and under populated. The most robust district is that of Texas freshman Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond). His southwest Houston seat houses just under one million people, at an exact count of 972,309. The least populated seat is West Virginia’s 3rd District (Rep. Carol Miller-R): 326,267 people under quota. With all of the Mountain State seats seriously down, it is clear as to why West Virginia lost a seat in reapportionment. There are only two states, Colorado and Oregon, where all of the current districts are over-populated. Both entities gain one seat in reapportionment. On the other end of the spectrum, Michigan and Pennsylvania saw all districts falling below their new population quota, and in Illinois, 17 of their current 18 do as well. All three states are losing a district. It is not surprising that California lost a seat for the first time in history. A total of 35 of their current 53 seats require more population versus 18 that must shed residents. New York barely lost a seat, by just 89 people statewide, which is surprising when seeing 23 of their current 27 districts requiring additional population. The states are now converting their new data into their redistricting software systems. After that, most will hold hearings for public input prior to district construction beginning. STATE DIST INCUMBENT HIGH LOW +/- Alabama 5 Mo Brooks (R) 43,348 4, 3 7 Terri Swell (D) -53,143 Arizona 5 Andy Biggs (R) 86,414 3, 6 2 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) -50,133 Arkansas 3 Steve Womack (R) 86,266 2, 2 4 Bruce Westerman (R) -66,283 California 45 Katie Porter (D) 53,645 18, 35 -1 40 Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) -70,139 Colorado 4 Ken Buck (R) 148,823 7, 0 +1 3 Lauren Boebert (R) 36,543 Connecticut 4 Jim Himes (D) 25,627 2, 3 2 Joe Courtney (D) -21,288 Florida 9 Darren Soto (D) 186,381 21, 6 +1 13 Charlie Crist (D) -41,756 Georgia 7 Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) 94,304 8, 6 2 Sanford Bishop (D) -92,108 Illinois 7 Danny Davis (D) 10,986 1, 17 -1 17 Cheri Bustos (D) -79,907 Indiana 5 Victoria Spartz (R) 50,921 5, 4 8 Larry Bucshon (R) -38,579 Iowa 3 Cindy Axne (D) 61,382 1, 3 4 Randy Feenstra (R) -31,730 Kansas 3 Sharice Davids (D) 57,816 1, 3 1 Tracey Mann (R) -33,697 Kentucky 6 Andy Barr (R) 33,300 4, 2 5 Hal Rogers (R) -57,592 Louisiana 6 Garret Graves (R) 40,173 3, 3 4 Mike Johnson (R) -47,947 Maryland 4 Anthony Brown (D) 26,772 6, 2 7 Kweisi Mfume (D) -68,401 Massachusetts 7 Ayanna Pressley (D) 18,714 4, 5 1 Richard Neal (D) -50,635 Michigan 11 Haley Stevens (D) -17,368 0, 14 -1 5 Dan Kildee (D) -104,476 Minnesota 3 Dean Phillips (D) 24,586 5, 3 7 Michelle Fischbach (D) -39,978 Mississippi 4 Steven Palazzo (R) 37,196 3, 1 2 Bennie Thompson (D) -65,829 Missouri 3 Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) 35,121 6, 2 1 Cori Bush (D) -54,618 Nebraska 2 Don Bacon (R) 47,170 2, 1 3 Adrian Smith (R) -53,152 Nevada 3 Susie Lee (D) 79,374 2, 2 1 Dina Titus (D) -73,332 New Jerseyy 8 Albio Sires (D) 47,314 5, 7 2 Jeff Van Drew (R) -41,606 New Mexico 2 Yvette Harrell (R) 8,181 2, 1 1 Melanie Stansbury (D) -11,264 New York 12 Carolyn Maloney (D) 34,717 4, 23 -1 23 Tom Reed (R) -83,462 North Carolina 2 Deborah Ross (D) 165,703 12, 1 +1 1 G.K. Butterfield (D) -6,238 Ohio 3 Joyce Beatty (D) 23,119 2, 14 -1 6 Bill Johnson (R) -99,512 Oklahoma 1 Kevin Hern (R) 36,806 3, 2 2 Markwayne Mullin (R) -69,793 Oregon 1 Suzanne Bonamici (D) 157,843 5, 0 +1 4 Peter DeFazio (D) 117,399 Pennsylvania 10 Scott Perry (R) -5,379 0, 18 -1 15 Glenn Thompson (R) -90,540 South Carolina 1 Nancy Mace (R) 87,689 3, 4 6 Jim Clyburn (D) -84,741 Tennessee 4 Scott DesJarlais (R) 62,976 5, 4 9 Steve Cohen (D) -77,122 Texas 22 Troy Nehls (R) 205,322 28, 8 +2 13 Ronny Jackson (R) -59,517 Utah 4 Burgess Owens (R) 65,265 1, 3 3 John Curtis (R) -31,190 Virginia 10 Jennifer Wexton (D) 100,750 6, 5 9 Morgan Griffith (R) -87,917 Washington 7 Pramila Jayapal (D) 28,862 6, 4 6 Derek Kilmer (D) -33,730 West Virginia 2 Alex Mooney (R) -275,777 0, 3 -1 3 Carol Miller (R) -326,627 Wisconsin 2 Mark Pocan (D) 52,678 2, 6 4 Gwen Moore (D) -41,320 Posted in Apportionment, Election Analysis, House, Reapportionment, Redistricting and tagged Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Census Bureau, Colorado, Connecticut, Daily Kos Elections, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennesee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin on August 17, 2021 by Jim Ellis. Leave a comment Re-Mapping Ohio Ohio’s Congressional Districts By Jim Ellis July 21, 2021 — Thanks to the state of Ohio, the redistricting calendar has new life. The Buckeye State’s lawsuit against the Census Bureau and a negotiated out of court settlement led to an agreement that all 50 states will receive their redistricting census tract data on or around Aug. 15 instead of well into October or beyond. Typically, states receive their individual data, mandatory for drawing federal congressional districts that must be drawn to a factor of plus or minus one person, during the early part of the year. The Census Bureau largely blames this year’s delays on COVID-19, though a great deal of the problem centers around the bureaucracy attempting to impose differential privacy on part of the data, meaning some of the key statistical information would not be released. The states not having full access would lead to the new districts being less statistically reliable. Even the August data distribution agreement, however, creates a tenuous situation for the states to complete their redistricting work and still adhere to mandatory internal local deadlines. This is particularly true for the states like Ohio that are losing or gaining congressional representation. Ohio grew at a percentage rate of just 2.3 through the decade, ranking 44th in the nation and just over a full percentage point below the national average. The 2020 census numbers add to the continuing trend for this state of failing to keep pace with national population growth. In the 1980 census, for example, Ohio held 21 congressional districts. It would lose two congressional seats in the 1990 apportionment, one more in 2000, and two more in 2010 to bring us to its current total of 16. The 2020 census reduces the delegation to 15 seats. Currently, the Ohio US House delegation stands at a party division of 12R-4D. Since the count is so lopsided in the Republicans’ favor, it looks on paper that the GOP would be the party that loses one of its members. Looking closely at the individual district population data, however, that may not be the case. Despite the Dems having only four seats, three of their four are among Ohio’s most under-populated CDs, while one, the 3rd District of Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus), actually must shed the most population, some 34,000-plus residents according to the latest published figures (July 2019). Adding the last year of population statistics could change the situation, but at first glance the statewide and district totals suggest alterations will only be minor. Continue reading → Posted in 2022, Apportionment, House, Reapportionment, Redistricting and tagged Census Bureau, COVID-19, Max Miller, Ohio, reapportionment, Redistricting, US House seats on July 21, 2021 by Jim Ellis. Leave a comment The Michigan Wild Card Michigan Congressional Districts By Jim Ellis July 16, 2021 — For the third consecutive census, the Wolverine State of Michigan loses a congressional seat but this time it is more difficult to determine how the new map will be drawn and which of the state’s 14 US House members, comprised of seven Democrats and seven Republicans, will be the odd member out. The big change is that for the first time a citizens’ commission, and not the state legislature, will draw the map. The 13-member commission has been conducting briefings to organizations around the state since April 3 and has public input meetings scheduled with those that began July 8 through Aug. 26. What places Michigan in a wild card situation, however, won’t become clear until the US Census Bureau sends the state its individual tract data that will arrive on or around Aug. 15. At that point, the key question will be answered as to just how many people the city of Detroit has lost. This will be the critical factor in determining how the new congressional map is constructed. Like every state, Michigan is bordered on all sides meaning the members with districts on the edge are typically in better defined position than those residing in the geographic middle. In this state’s case, the Great Lakes surround the split land masses on the north, east, and west, with Canada lying to its north and east, and Indiana and Ohio to the south. Looking at the available public population data that only is current through July 1 of 2019, all current 14 districts must gain residents, hence the state losing a CD, with three most significantly holding the fewest people. Those three are the two Detroit seats, Districts 13 (Rep. Rashida Tlaib-D) and 14 (Rep. Brenda Lawrence-D), and the Flint-anchored seat, District 5 (Rep. Dan Kildee-D). All three are likely to need an influx of more than 100,000 people apiece. Continue reading → Posted in Apportionment, Election Analysis, MICHIGAN, Reapportionment, Redistricting, Voting Rights and tagged Canada, Detroit, Flint, Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair, Michigan, Rep. Brenda Lawrence, Rep. Dan Kildee, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, US Census Bureau, Voting Rights Act on July 16, 2021 by Jim Ellis. Leave a comment House Vulnerables – Part II By Jim Ellis July 13, 2021 — On Monday, we began a two-part series on what are arguably the most vulnerable dozen US House seats based upon the individual district’s political performance over the past two elections. Below is the priority order update covering the second half of the top 12 most vulnerable CDs. As you will continue to see below, all of the seats except one are Republican held. To refresh, the first six covered were: • IA-2 (Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Ottumwa) • IA-1 (Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) • IA-3 (Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Des Moines) • FL-27 (Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Miami) • CA-48 (Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Orange County) • NY-22 (Rep. Cynthia Tenney, R-New Hartford) Here’s our look at the next six: UT-4: Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) – Ave R vote: 48.8% • Former NFL football star and businessman Burgess Owens defeated freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D) by one percentage point in 2020, and we can expect another competitive race here again within this mostly suburban Salt Lake City congressional district located in the metropolitan area’s southern sector. Republicans, who are in full control of the Utah redistricting process, will attempt to improve the district for Owens, which is possible since the 4th CD is the fastest growing district in the fastest growing state over the past decade. The best estimates suggest that the 4th District must shed approximately 50,000 people to other CDs. This should allow map drawers to subtract a substantial number of Democratic voters from the district, thus yielding Burgess a slightly more favorable political domain. At this point, McAdams, who was the Salt Lake County mayor prior to his election to Congress, has not indicated whether he will return for a re-match. MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Rochester) – Ave R vote: 49.3% • Two-term Rep. Hagedorn just announced that his cancer has returned, meaning an immediate treatment regimen. How this will affect his re-election campaign is yet to be determined. Hagedorn has won two close elections, as has his Democratic colleague in the adjacent district, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan). Minnesota is the only state in the nation that sees a split control legislature, meaning each party controls one house. Since the state did not lose a congressional district in apportionment as originally projected, it would not be surprising to see a legislative deal made where Democrats and Republicans are flipped between the two adjoining districts. The changes would result in Hagedorn gaining Republicans and Craig adding Democrats. Redistricting will perhaps be the most critical factor in determining the outcome of both districts come 2022 and beyond. Continue reading → Posted in 2022, Apportionment, Election Analysis, House, Reapportionment, Redistricting and tagged California, Minnesota, New Mexico, Rep. Beth Van Duyne, Rep. Burgess Owens, Rep. David Valadao, Rep. Jim Hagedorn, Rep. Nancy Mace, Rep. Young Kim, South Carolina, Texas, Utah on July 13, 2021 by Jim Ellis. Leave a comment House Vulnerables – Part I By Jim Ellis July 12, 2021 — Much of the early 2022 election cycle narrative places the Republicans in an advantageous position to re-claim the US House majority they lost in 2018, but there are mitigating factors that make predicting such an outcome premature. To begin, analysts cite the historical voting pattern that yields large midterm losses for the party that wins the White House in the previous election – a mean average House seat loss of 25 for the president’s party in the first midterm in the 11 such elections from Eisenhower in 1954 to Trump in 2018 – which is a key influence factor for the 2022 election cycle. Since we are immediately following a new census, redistricting will change at least to a small degree all of the districts in the 44 states that will have more than one seat. Most analysts believe Republicans will be at least slight beneficiaries of the new maps because their party controls most of the state legislatures that will draw the new lines. The states, however, do not yet even have their census tract data and won’t until mid-August at the earliest; therefore, redistricting will be later and even more chaotic than we are accustomed to seeing. The delays could lead to more interim court maps being placed for the 2022 election, which could neutralize any gain the GOP achieves from their favorable position in the majority of state legislatures that have redistricting power. Additionally, one must look at the 2020 race results to determine which of the seats will become major targets. In November, 53 current House members won their elections with less than 52 percent of the vote, 27 Democrats and 26 Republicans. In terms of the closest election results, and likely meaning the most vulnerable conversion targets for the 2022 re-election cycle, we see 11 Republicans in the 12 seats where the incumbent’s party averaged 50 percent of the vote or below in the previous two electoral contests. This tells us that the national Republican strength factor heading into the midterm vote may be somewhat weaker than noted in a cursory overview. Continue reading → Posted in 2022, Apportionment, Election Analysis, House, Reapportionment, Redistricting and tagged CA-48, FL-27, IA-1, IA-2, NY-22, Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Claudia Tenney, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Rep. Michelle Steel on July 12, 2021 by Jim Ellis. Leave a comment ← Older Newer → ELLIS ON THE AIR Listen in to my weekly podcasts here: BIPAC’s Podcasts. I provide ongoing political analyses for the Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC), which is an independent, bipartisan organization. Please leave this field empty Hello & Thanks for visiting ... Sign up to receive our content in your inbox Monday - Friday. Enter Email * Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription. Search Search for: Jim Ellis Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections. 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