At the start of Training Camp, if you’d asked us to hypothesise a “worst case” NFC South scenario going into this week 4 game against the Cowboys, we would probably have struggled to eclipse reality. You really couldn’t draw it up any worse. The misfiring 0-3 Saints are firmly rooted in the basement of the NFC South, whilst the undefeated Falcons (3-0) and Panthers (3-0) vie for supremacy above. Both Atlanta (vs HOU) and Carolina (@ TB) have favorable week 4 matchups. In all likelihood both will be 4-0 by the time the Saints kickoff on Sunday night…

If the “alarm bells” sounded distant last week before the tough loss in Carolina, they are at full volume going into Sunday’s game. The small matter of a primetime Superdome matchup against the Cowboys stands between the Saints and hope (1-3) or despair (0-4).

Read on below for our Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints matchup preview, where we highlight 3 reasons why the Saints can beat the Cowboys (and indeed 3 reasons why they can’t), finishing up with our summary “BoiLa’s take” on the matchup on either side of the football.

The Boila’s Snapshot – The Dallas Cowboys (in two paragraphs or less): By a quirk of scheduling, Sunday will represent the 6th time the Saints have renewed their heated rivalry with the Cowboys in the last 7 seasons. New Orleans are 3-2 in that stretch. The Saints and Cowboys fortunes have largely mirrored one another since 2009, which is part of the reason for the (almost annual) intra-division matchup. Well, we say largely mirrored… But we digress. And we can’t start living on former glories of course. That would make us as bad as… You know who! Of course, these 2015 Cowboys are a different breed to their predecessors. As any Cowboy fan would have told you before the season started – “this is our year”! Just like 2014 was. And 2013. And 2012. And 2011. And every other year since 1995. Still, notwithstanding the annual Cowboy hype-train, this is undoubtedly a talented (if injury-hit) Dallas squad, built around one of the best offensive lines in football. We won’t see Tony Romo and Dez Bryant on Sunday, but that certainly does not make this game an automatic home “W”, particularly given the Saints own frailties and injury question marks.

THE COWBOYS OFFENSE by the numbers: 0 – Number of sacks attributable to mistakes by the Cowboys O-Line in 2015, per PFF. 16 – Number of offensive penalties committed by Dallas through weeks 1-3. Only Washington and Tampa have more. 21 – Number of catches by TE Jason Witten so far in 2015. Highest in the league amongst TEs. 4 – Number of Brandon Weeden’s passes targeting WR’s vs ATL in week 3. His 22 other throws were all to RBs/TEs.

THE COWBOYS DEFENSE by the numbers: 18 – Percentage of downs on which the Cowboys D blitzed in 2014. 2nd lowest in the NFL. So far in 2015, the Cowboys blitz pct has fallen to 15%. 3 – Sacks by Dallas so far this year. Only Miami and San Diego have fewer. 3.6 – YPC of the Cowboys’ opponents in 2015. =7th lowest in the NFL. 7 – Passing plays of 20+ yards given up by the Dallas D in 2015. Only Carolina and Pittsburgh have been tighter against “big plays”.

3 REASONS WHY THE SAINTS WILL DEFEAT THE DALLAS COWBOYS:

1. Brees is back… And against the Cowboys pass rush, he should be safe

Who Dat Nation rejoice – for Drew Brees is back. Friday’s word from Airline Drive is that Brees is “full go” on Sunday, which is a huge relief after the swirling rumors and hearsay of rotator cuff-gate. Although McCown played admirably in defeat at Carolina last week, he isn’t Drew Brees. Especially in primetime in the Superdome, where Brees is an incredible 17-2 since 2008.

The returning Brees will be playing with a target on his back on Sunday, though. Through weeks 1 and 2, the Saints O-Line often struggled in pass protection – never moreso than in the first half against Tampa when Brees took “that hit” from Jacquies Smith. Last week, however, marked an encouraging improvement for the Saints up-front. Against one of the best front-sevens in the league, the Saints did an excellent job of protecting reserve QB Luke McCown, conceding only one “sack” (which was actually more of a run for a short loss as McCown scrambled to the sideline out of bounds).

This week, Brees will thankfully face one of the weaker pass rushes in the NFL for his return. The Cowboys have only had 3 sacks all year, and rely almost exclusively on their defensive front to generate pressure and sacks. Dallas blitz only 18% of the time – less than almost every other D in the league. In defense of the Cowboys anaemic 2015 pass rush, they have been missing 3 crucial edge players in recent weeks. The dangerous Jeremy Mincey, former Panther Greg Hardy and talented second round rookie Randy Gregory have all been absent. Of the trio, only Mincey is set to return this week, with Gregory still injured and Hardy still suspended.

Even with Mincey back, the Cowboys still represent one of the less dynamic defensive fronts the Saints will face this year. And as we are well aware, the essential key to slowing down the Saints offense is getting pressure on Brees. In 2014, per PFF, when not under pressure Brees completed 75% of his passes at 8.1 yards per attempt for 30 TDs and 8 INTs. When under pressure, Brees completed just 56% of his passes at 6.2 yards per attempt for just 3 TDs and 9 INTs. It’s a relatively simple equation – if the shorthanded Cowboys defensive front continue their 2015 trend of being unable to get to the QB, and the Saints O-Line build on their improved display in Carolina last week, Brees should have a clean pocket. Which makes the prospect of 18-2 in primetime Superdome games all the more likely

2. Brandon “Game Manager” Weeden is under center for Dallas

Brandon Weeden took the “game manager” role to almost unprecedented extremes in his first start of 2015 last week. On first glance, his stat line looks passable – impressive even – 22/26 for over 200 yards. However, a staggering 21 of his 26 pass attempts were short passes of 9 yards or less. Of his 5 longer downfield throws, only 2 were completed and 1 was picked off. Everything else was a checkdown – and 19 of the 21 checkdowns were thrown “between the numbers” straight over the middle. Oh, and only 4 of Weeden’s passes were thrown to WRs. Whichever way you look at it, it is an unbelievable stat line.

On the defensive side last week, the Falcons countered initially by happily giving Weeden the “easy” short gains on 1st and 2nd down, then clamping down on 3rd down. That worked a treat, as Weeden only converted one 3rd down on the day. In the second half, having had more time to see what Weeden was (or indeed wasn’t) doing, the Falcons simply shut him down. Dallas scored 0 points and only had 52 yards of offense after halftime, with Atlanta packing the box, tempting Weeden with easy RB/TE checkdowns, and preventing YAC to great effect.

Weeden cut a frustrated figure in a curiously defensive interview this week regarding his performance against Atlanta, claiming that his biggest strength is in fact “throwing to the boundaries” and “throwing downfield”. The Dallas gameplan last week suggests his coaches think otherwise, and based on Weeden’s 0-9 career mark they well be onto something. We fully expect the Saints to pack the box early and test Weeden’s ability to throw over the top on Sunday, particularly with returning all-pro CB Keenan Lewis set to shore up the secondary. We’ll see if Weeden’s actions on the field speak as loudly as his defiant words off it this week. If his 0-9 career record is anything to go by, they probably won’t.

3. The Saints defense should be at full strength for the first time in 2015

Friday’s update on Brees was not the only positive medical information emanating from Metairie. The final injury report contains welcome news regarding not one, not two, but three key defensive players who are yet to see action this year. All three of Jairus Byrd, Keenan Lewis, and Dannell Ellerbe have participated in practice all week, and all three are listed as “probable” to return for Sunday’s game.

Sean Payton has intimated that there may be a limited snap count for CB Keenan Lewis, but with Brandon Browner struggling mightily to play CB1 in this Rob Ryan scheme, the return of Lewis in any form will without doubt provide a significant upgrade on the outside for the Saints. LB Dannell Ellerbe will slot straight into the starting lineup alongside improving rookie Stephone Anthony and should instantly upgrade the Saints linebacking corps against a Cowboys offense heavily reliant on RB/TE production.

As for S Jairus Byrd? Who knows. If we have learnt anything over the past 12 months, it is to assume nothing with regard to Jairus and his health. His “probable” status suggests that he will “probably” play on Sunday. But we’ll believe it when we see it. With third-stringer Kenny Phillips currently playing as an emergency high-safety, his return would be extremely timely. And it might just offer us a rare opportunity to finally see a Saints defense at “full strength”. A sight about as rare as #31 himself.

3 REASONS WHY THE SAINTS WON’T DEFEAT THE DALLAS COWBOYS

1. The Cowboys famed offensive line

The Cowboys offensive line is notoriously strong. Never was this clearer than when the Saints travelled to Dallas last year, and got absolutely manhandled (both literally and figuratively) on route to their 38-17 drubbing. On that day, Romo was untouched on 29 of his 32 drop backs and Dallas gashed the Saints for 190 rushing yards on 35 carries.

Unless Brandon Weeden has a career day (and then some) on Sunday, it will almost certainly be the run blocking of the Dallas offensive line that paves the way on their quest for the W. The Cowboys O-Line have blocked for a respectable looking 4.1 YPC this season at 105 rushing yards per game. That’s a slight dropoff on 2014, where they went at 4.6 YPC for 147 yards per game. Both are highly impressive clips, however. The pass blocking of the Dallas O-Line has also been stellar so far this year – per PFF, no Dallas offensive lineman has been responsible for a sack in 2015.

If you delve beneath the bare stats, though, there has at times been inconsistency in the Cowboys offensive line play this year. Last week against the Falcons, for instance, RB Joseph Randle gained 85 yards on his first 3 carries. On his next 11 carries, he gained just 2 (yes, two) yards, as the O-Line struggle to open running lanes. The Cowboys’ line has also had issues with penalties. Cris Collinsworth euphemistically lauded the “vice like” physicality of the Dallas linemen against New Orleans last year, but that same “vice like” physicality has become the Cowboys’ own worst enemy at times this year. With officials clamping down, the O-Line alone has already been flagged for 7 holding penalties through week 3 (only Indy and Washington have more), with the number leaping to 16 if you also include pre-snap offensive penalties (also 3rd highest in the NFL).

Notwithstanding the inconsistent run blocking and penalties, this Cowboys O-Line still easily represents the strongest test the Saints D have faced in the trenches so far this year. And the Saints D-Line has hardly “lit it up” against the softer opposition it has battled so far – allowing 4.2 YPC through week 3. The Saints best be more prepared for the “vice like” physicality this year, or the Cowboys will find it easy to set the tempo again, much like in 2014.

2. Jason Witten is going to town on this Saints D

One of the most concerning takeaways from last week’s tough loss in Carolina was the Saints’ inability to defend Greg Olsen. The predominantly zone coverage was simple to exploit for Olsen, as he constantly found holes and seams for big chunks of yards on route to 8 grabs, 134 yards, and 2 TDs.

The Saints defense will be receive another stern examination this week, with talented veteran Jason Witten coming to town. Witten leads all TEs in receptions this year, with 21. He is highly likely to be Weeden’s preferred target. The Saints have had a week to prepare for Witten, so we expect Ryan to try something different to the “soft zone” that was shredded in Carolina. With Keenan Lewis returning outside, one potential option is to shift Brandon Browner into a “press man” assignment on Witten on obvious passing downs. Another is to match S Kenny Vaccaro on the Cowboys TE. Even rookie CB Damian Swann may be involved, after being just about the only defender to slow down Greg Olsen last week.

None of the options are guaranteed to slow down Witten, of course. And paying too much attention to Witten will equally leave other dangerous “between the numbers” receiving threats such as slot man Cole Beasley and the Cowboys’ trio of talented RBs open to exploit the soft zone over the middle. It’s a conundrum the Saints will face every time they take on a talented TE, and worryingly Ryan has never really found a consistent way to slow down opposing tight ends.

3. The Cowboys 3.6 YPC run defense will make the Saints one-dimensional

Other than the obvious (Brees playing hurt for the Bucs game, then missing the Panthers game), the other reason for the Saints struggles on the offensive side this year has been the lack of production in the running game. Through week 3, the Saints are only going at 3.2 YPC on the ground (29th in the NFL). To avoid becoming one-dimensional, the Saints simply must get more protection from their ground game.

Unfortunately, this week the Saints match up against one of the better run defenses in the league – at least statistically. So far this year, the Cowboys are holding opponents to a stingy 3.6 YPC on the ground, with talented OLB Sean Lee patrolling the field and swallowing running backs for fun. The raw numbers don’t look encouraging for the Saints.

It should be noted, though, that the 2015 numbers are somewhat skewed for Dallas by the absolute beatdown they put on Philadelphia in week 2. The Cowboys held the Eagles to 7 (yes, seven) yards on 17 carries that day. Of course, there is a chance that the Dallas front-7 repeats that feat this week. But disregarding that for a moment, both the Giants (4.1 YPC, 99 yards) and especially the Falcons (4.9 YPC, 158 yards) have had success running on this Dallas team. For the Saints offense to be fully firing, they will be hoping that the week 1 and 3 Cowboys defense shows up. If Sean Lee and the Dallas D can repeat their heroics from Philadelphia, it will be another frustrating day on the ground for New Orleans.

Saints Defense v Cowboys Offense – The BoiLa’s Take “Last week’s Dallas gameplan against Atlanta was tacit admission of Brandon Weeden’s limitations as a QB. We really do not expect Jason Garrett to rip up the playbook and ask Weeden to sling the Cowboys to a shootout victory this week. Weeden will be asked to do a similar job against the Saints weak pass-rush and “soft zone”. Where this game will really be won (or lost) by Dallas is in the running game, of course. The Cowboys absolutely dominated the Saints for 190 yards rushing last year. If the Saints allow the Cowboys O-Line to control the line of scrimmage again, it will ensure Weeden is kept in “and short” situations, allowing Dallas to (at the very least) set the tempo and ensure the game remains close. Conversely, if New Orleans pack the box and shutdown the Dallas running game (as Atlanta did so effectively last week), all eyes return to Weeden. With Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd returning to bolster the secondary, if the ball is in Weeden’s hands in “and long” situations, we very much like the Saints chances of winning on defense this week.”

Saints Offense v Cowboys Defense – The BoiLa’s Take “The key storyline this week is of course the return of Drew Brees, who is “full go” for Sunday. He desperately needs his offensive line to build upon their strong showing in Carolina last week, and avoid a repeat of the beating he took in the Dome in week 2. Against a shorthanded Cowboys pass rush, we like the O-Line’s chances of offering a clean pocket. That should open up the whole playbook for the Saints, and prevent the Cowboys from packing the box to stop the run. Indeed, if Brees can demonstrate his arm strength early, Mark Ingram may well finally have a chance to “breakout” – both the Giants and Falcons had good success on the ground against this Cowboys D when forcing them to respect the pass. Of course, if Brees is not “full go” for any reason, the Saints will find themselves battling a congested box as the matchup swings back in the Cowboys’ favor. All eyes will be on #9, as he seeks to make it 18-2 in his last 20 Superdome primetime games.”

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We’re hoping to get The BoiLa out to a wider range of Who Dats in 2015, and any help in achieving this would be greatly appreciated. Feel free to spread the word and share this article with any other Saints fans you think might be interested.

Following the game on Sunday we’ll be grading each players performance using our color-coded grading system. If you’ve missed our Saints player grades and snap counts through the first three weeks you can view them below:



Week 1: Saints @ Cardinals – Player Grades, Snap Counts and Analysis

Week 2: Saints vs Bucs – Player Grades, Snap Counts and Analysis

Week 3: Saints @ Panthers – Player Grades, Snap Counts and Analysis

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