This framing also allows bill supporters to lambast liberals for uncivil fearmongering and for allegedly making hysterical claims that “MILLIONS WILL DIE!” I haven’t seen people saying that. But it’s easy enough to punch down on social media by finding hysterical-sounding people who exaggerate the numbers, rely on anecdotal data, or misinterpret observational studies.

[Avik Roy immolating his dignity on Twitter omitted]

There’s only—or at least—one problem here. Existing research, for all its flaws, indeed suggests that thousands of Americans will probably die needlessly every year if BCRA is passed. That’s not inflated rhetoric. That’s what any reasonable person would predict based on the available data.

My own favorite study examined the survival benefits of implementing Romneycare in Massachusetts. Other studies compare populations that for one reason or another gained access to expanded Medicaid to populations that did not. Not surprisingly, different studies of different insurance changes applied to different groups find diverse effects. The Massachusetts study suggests that one death is prevented for every 830 people newly insured. Writing at Vox, Ann Crawford-Roberts, Nichole Roxas, and Ichiro Kawachi note that Medicaid coverage thus rivals widely accepted clinical interventions such as screening colonoscopy. If that 1-in-830 finding generalizes BCRA, rendering 22 million people uninsured would imply about 20,000 deaths per year.