Yo! I hope you are as excited for the start of the NBA season as I am. As of starting this, there are 25 days until the Denver Nuggets play regular season basketball. In this article, I am going to break down the roster and project team awards (Nuggets MVP, MIP, COY, ROY, etc.). I hope you enjoy!

16-17 Roster

One of the most encouraging things about this Nuggets team is the roster carryover from last season. 12/14 players who played significant minutes at any point during last season will be on the opening night roster. The minutes distribution and depth chart likely won’t change much. During this past offseason there was fortunately (?) very little player movement.

Significant Departures: Joffrey Lauvergne

Significant Additions: Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez.

Below is a breakdown of each position.

Point Guards

Projected Depth Chart (MPG)*:

Emmanuel Mudiay (31) Jameer Nelson (20) Jamal Murray (15)

Emanuel Mudiay

Mudiay will undoubtably be the starting point guard on opening night. He is a creative playmaker with plus size and athleticism. He makes passes that many other guards don’t see. My favorite passes that he makes are the skip passes to the weak-side corner or FT line extended of of a pick and roll action. While these passes often don’t yield assists, they are crucial to generating ball movement in a successful P&R based offense. Below are some specific examples of this unique ability (time stamps of examples: 1:40, 1:59, 2:17, 2:27):

Despite Mudiay’s physical gifts, passing ability, and potential, he is still one of the worst starting point guards in the NBA. Emmanuel posted a -1.2 VORP last year while shooting 43.7 % (true shooting) on a usage rate of 25.7%. He was really horrible last year, especially before his injury. As much as he did improve after coming back from injury, that was a very small sample size, and it is unrealistic to expect too big of a jump coming off of his rookie year. If Mudiay is able to cut down on his turnovers (17.9 TOV %-9th highest amongst NBA qualified point guards) and improve his outside shooting/finishing ability (2nd worst TS % amongst qualified point guards) I do expect him to be significantly better than he was last year. Overall, I am very optimistic about Mudiay’s future, and I am happy to have him. He fits in nicely with Jokic in a P&R offense, and he will thrive growing up with Nikola.

Jameer Nelson

Jameer Nelson is old. Despite his insane 34-year-old status, Jameer remains a relatively productive backup point guard in the NBA. He is nothing more than a slightly below average backup guard with no upside and a good locker room presence. He is, however, a great fit for this team. His experience in the NBA will absolutely help the young guards get acclimated to the NBA play style and perhaps more importantly the NBA lifestyle. Many Nuggets fans will see Nelson’s minutes as some sort of blockade on Murray and Beasley’s development, but on the contrary, his minutes will actually really help those guys ease into their future roles. If (knock on wood) the Nuggets suffer any injuries, Coach Malone should, and will, trust Jameer Nelson with the primary point guard responsibilities.

Jamal Murray

You could say the Nuggets are #blessed to have this guy. Murray’s gifts are evident after only a short time watching him play. He is a superb shooter, both off the dribble and spotting up, capable passer and playmaker coming out of the pick and role, and has shown that he is well versed in the in-between-game (floaters, pull up mid-range). In his time playing for the Nuggets (Summer League+Pre-Season) Murray has demonstrated outstanding poise when taking control of the offense late in games. In particular, in the first Lakers versus Nuggets pre-season game (10/7/16), Murray took over late, securing the victory (see below).

Starting at 1:40 in the above video, Murray makes three very clutch consecutive plays to win the game. Granted, he was matched up against a 2K My Player, but still an impressive clutch performance. As excited as Nuggets fans should be about Murray, he’s only 20 years old and has a good bit of development left before he can become a productive 30 mpg type of guy. His main weaknesses are his athleticism, defense, and quickness off the dribble. We will have to wait and see what kind of impact Murray has early this year.

Shooting Guards

Projected Depth Chart (MPG)*:

Garry Harris (31) Will Barton (26) Malik Beasley (8)

Gary Harris

Once healthy, Gary Harris should be the starting shooting guard for the Denver Nuggets on a nightly basis. Harris is the best off-ball cutter the Nuggets have had since Corey Brewer. He is the most consistent perimeter defender and an outstanding spot up shooter. Though undersized, Gary has great defensive instincts and very active hands. Despite his somewhat clunky looking offensive game (similar to Barton), Harris has a knack for scoring from anywhere on the floor, as seen in his shot chart below:

After looking like a bust in his rookie year, Gary Harris has had one of the best Sophomore jumps in recent memory. Although I do not expect Gary to make the same type of jump coming into his 3rd year in the NBA, Harris should remain an extremely productive 2-way shooting guard in the league.

Will Barton

I really do not know what to think about William Barton on this Nuggets team. He is not one of the extremely talented 7 under 22s nor is he one of the experienced vets helping to lead the locker room (Gallo, Mike Miller, Will, Nelson, etc.). He is, however, an electric bench scorer and an on the court team leader. His energy exertion is contagious and he is an integral part of an above average NBA bench unit. Last year, Barton was debatably the most valuable player on the team, filling many roles. Barton put up career highs in MPG (28.7), PTS (14.4), STL, AST, and REB. It is not likely that he will also have this type of jump going into his 5th season.

Like many Nuggets fans, I believe that the best use for Barton this season is to trade him at the deadline either in a package deal for an All-Star level talent or for a future pick. Barton will be a productive bench player for virtually any NBA franchise and is on a very team friendly deal, but considering the depth of the Nuggets youth, his minutes would likely be better spent on Murray and Beasley. No love lost for Will, though. By all accounts, Barton is an extremely hard worker, and if he is kept around will be a great guy to have working with the young bloods who are primed for bigger roles in the future.

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley is a 19 year old shooting guard out of FSU. As the 19th overall pick, Beasley was widely regarded as a great value pick. He is an exceptional athlete and has a very smooth shooting stroke. Here is a video of him dunking on the number 2 overall pick in college:

Nuggets fans should not expect too much production out of Beasley early on. This year, he will unfortunately not see a lot of playing time barring major injuries. That being said, I expect Beasley to be a solid 3 and D athlete in the near future. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays his way into more minutes than Mike Malone initially allotted.

Small Forward

Projected Depth Chart (MPG)*:

Danilo Gallinari (34) Wilson Chandler (22) Mike Miller (1)

Danilo Gallinari

Danilo Gallinari is one of the most versatile scorers in the NBA. At 6’10”, Gallo can score from virtually anywhere on the floor. Like Carmelo Anthony in his prime, Gallo has the unique ability to get to the FT line at ease. In fact, Danilo was one of only 7 players last year with a free throw rate above 0.6. Not only is Danilo a savant at getting to the line, he is also an exceptional 3PT shooter (career 36.6% on 4.9 3PA/G) and an underrated post up player. “The Rooster” is by far the best and most important offensive player for the Nuggets, and like past seasons, Danilo will be heavily relied on to make late game and end of the shot clock clutch shots. I look forward to seeing more shots this season like these:

Despite being one of the top offensive players in the league, Danilo has some critical weaknesses. First off, Gallo is extremely injury prone. Over the past two seasons, he has played in less than 60 games. His injury problems are well documented, and there isn’t much he or anyone else can do. Unfortunately, some of his previous injuries have been magnified by poor medical care (failed knee surgery/mis diagnosis). Everyone who is reading this please say a brief prayer for Danilo’s health over the next few seasons :)! Finally, Gallinari struggles with quicker wings on defense. In today’s NBA, Gallo fits in well as a stretch 4 and will be well suited to guard most power forwards in the league. Overall, Gallo is an underrated defender and in my opinion is a very solid 2 way power forward (playing SF) in the league today.

Wilson Chandler

Wilson Chandler is extremely underrated in today’s NBA. He is athletic and skilled, and has very good size to play either the 3 or the 4. “Ill Will” is also a very good perimeter defender, and is strong enough to hold his own in the paint against a bigger post up player. Considering this, Wilson would be a great candidate to play stretch 4 in a switching defense (aka the only way to play agains the Warriors/Clippers/Cavs). As much as I was an advocate for the George Karl firing, I do have to give him credit for his crafty use of Will. GK was one of the first coaches in the NBA to switch all screens, and the main reason he was able to do that is because he had two bigs (Will and Faried) who could play perimeter defense on quicker guards. I hope to see Mike Malone use him in that way.

In addition to Chandler’s defensive versatility, Will also is a very good three point shooter and is an explosive straight line driver. Don’t expect to see wilson as a PnR ball handler, but do expect him to execute strong drives off of close-outs ending in viscous dunks:

I do not know what Will’s role will be the season with Denver. After missing an entire season to injury, it is hard to say how Malone will deploy Wilson. That being said, he is an extremely talented wing player with great versatility and deserves minutes. Similarly to Gallo, Ill Will has had his injury problems in the past. Here’s to hoping he can be healthy for 70+ games this year!

Mike Miller

Old. Good teammate. Coaches and players like him a lot. Friends with DWade and Lebron. A little bit disgusting looking:

Power Forward

Projected Depth Chart (MPG)*:

Darrell Arthur (25) Kenneth Faried (24) Jarnell Stokes/ Robbie Hummel (12) Juancho Hernangomez (8)

Darrell Arthur

Darrell Arthur (DA) is currently my personal favorite player on this roster. He is unbelievably underrated and is quite possibly the best big man mid-range shooter in the NBA. Throughout his career, Arthur has been known as a low end rotation guy who is smart defensively and can shoot a little bit. I predict that this season Arthur will have an expanded role due to his improved 3PT range he demonstrated last season.

As seen on his shot chart above, Arthur is very good in pick and pop jumpers. This really complements Mudiay well as he struggles with pull up jumpers coming off of screens. I believe that Arthur should start at the 4 due to his improved spacing and defensive ability over Kenneth Faried. DA is the perfect role player for this team, and can fit into virtually any lineup. He can play with either Nurk or Jokic due to his ability to guard a wide variety of bigs and also to stretch the floor on offense.

Kenneth Faried

“The Maninal” has had some great times in Denver. From his first NBA points

to being on the cover of ESPN the Body (and being called an ‘NBA Superstar’ by TMZ),

Kenneth Faried has always been a fan favorite. Many fans (including me) think his time in Denver should come to an end. As much as I love Faried’s rebounding ability and relentless energy, I believe that his horrendous defense (both on-ball and as a help defender) and inability to adapt to the current trends in the NBA have unfortunately deemed him expendable. Additionally, Faried’s development is not on the same timeline as the core of this team. The best course of action for the Nuggets is to look to shop Faried around the deadline.

That being said, Faried can remain relatively effective in a bench role for this squad. Darrell Arthur or Nikola Jokic fit in much better to the starting lineup, but going up against backup bigs, Faried will be very effective on the offensive glass, and will be able to complement Murray/Barton well at the guard positions with his hard rolls to the rim. As always, I will be very excited to watch Kenneth play anytime he is on the floor, and I hope he will remain relevant throughout his transition to a bench role.

Jarnell Stokes/Robbie Hummel

Stokes and Hummel are currently in a battle for the 15th roster spot. Without major injuries, neither of these guys should see the floor too much. They will both be behind Faried, Arthur, Jokic, Gallinari, and Chandler for PF minutes. Because Faried and Nurkic are frequently in foul trouble, there will be some nights where these guys play 15+ minutes. As for their on court production, I honestly don’t know and don’t really care at this point. We will see who makes the team and how they perform throughout the season. Not a very consequential spot.

Juancho Hernangomez

I absolutely love this guy. So happy that Denver swooped him up at the 15th overall pick. Juancho has the potential to become the prototype stretch 4 in the current NBA. He is undoubtably the 4 of the future for this squad. He is a very good shooter, plus passer, and an exceptional ‘energy’ rebounder like Kenneth Faried. In Las Vegas this summer, Hernangomez had all of his unique skill set on display, dishin’ and swishin’ seemingly in every game.

Hernangomez was well known as a skilled big man in the Spanish ACB league with the ability to rebound. The main question for Juan is if he is physically ready for NBA athletes. The answer right now is most likely no. For this reason, Hernangomez will see very limited minutes early this year, and will likely be at the very bottom of the rotation. Should one of Gallo, Nurk, Jokic, or Darrell Arthur get injured (or Nate Wolters make the team over Stokes+Hummel), Juancho will see some rotation minutes. I think the entire league is excited to see what this guy is all about, but more than likely we will not know until his Sophomore year at earliest.

Center

Projected Depth Chart (MPG)*:

Nikola Jokic (26) Jusuf Nurkic (19)

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is the 5th best (behind KAT, AD, KP, and JoJo) young big man in the NBA. He is by far the most valuable asset on the Nuggets and the most popular (basketball) athlete in Denver. What makes him so great? “The Joker” can do literally anything a team could ask of their big man. He shot around 33% from 3 while shooting approximately 14% of all of his shots from there. He also shot a significant number of mid range jump shots (mostly on pick and pops) from where he shot a solid 43%.

While Jokic is a way above average jump shooter for his position, his genius lies in his passing ability. I do not think I can overstate how good of a passer he is. Nikola Jokic always makes the correct play. He is capable of making every pass in the book, and does so on a regular basis. I feel supremely confident whenever the ball is in his hands. He is equally well versed in making traditional skip passes, post entry passes, passes to cutters, outlet passes, and the occasional flashy pass. You only have to watch him play for a short amount of time to realize his passing genius. This unique ability reminds me of the Gasol Brothers, but I think Jokic will surpass them. I suggest watching all 9 minutes of this:

This gives a good idea of Jokic as a playmaker, but it fails to highlight his every possession ability to make the correct passes and shot decisions. I don’t think that ability can be fully encompassed in a highlight video, so I encourage you to watch a few Nuggets games this season and be utterly blown away by this guy. I know my friends who read this far will make fun of me for this, but I honestly think that Nikola Jokic is one of the most talented players in the league right now and is a unique blend of Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, and Andrew Bynum.

For someone who hasn’t seen him play, the question is: why isn’t he producing at a commensurate rate with the best players in the league? There are two answers to this question:

1. He is.

Jokic posted the 12th highest BPM, 17th highest WS/48, and 22nd highest PER in the league, all in his rookie year. And let’s not forget, when playing a primary role agains the very best players in the world (Team USA), Jokic went absolutely insane, putting up 25 and 6 and almost winning the game.

2. He does not play enough minutes because he is not in shape/athletic enough

This is a fair response. Jokic only played 22 MPG last year. Assuming he is healthy, look for a big jump in minutes for this upcoming year.

Stay tuned for an all NBA 3rd team type season for Nikola Jokic.

Jusuf Nurkic

Nurk has had his ups and downs throughout his young career. While dealing with significant injuries, it has seemed like Nurkic has failed to maintain a good morale and communication level with his coaches. Thankfully, the worst is behind him. This is suggested by Malone’s confidence in Nurk and his summer visit to Bosnia to see Jusuf play for his international team.

Nurkic is a very good back to basket post up player. He has good hands and footwork, and he makes poor post defenders pay with a plethora of around the basket moves. He is still raw, but has developed a good baby hook, with both hands, and frequently bullies smaller defenders under the rim and takes advantage of great post position. Nurk is also a very underrated passer and rim protector. Within a few years, I can confidently say that Nurk will be a top 10 starting center in the NBA.

His main weaknesses are in his speed and his occasional lapse in judgement, similar to, but not nearly as bad as Javale McGee. This offseason, Nurk has lost significant weight, hopefully rendering him faster and more fit to play significant minutes. I hope that playing alongside Jokic and Gallinari (exceptional playmakers and decision makers) will limit the potential for bad mistakes by Nurk. For this reason, I really like the “Jurkic” starting lineup with Nikola at the 4 and Jusuf at the 5. I think this is likely the Nuggets second best starting lineup (behind DA at the 4 and Jokic at the 5), and we have seen “Jurkic” be especially effective in the pre-season.

Don’t be surprised when ESPN and NBA analysts are raving about Nurk and Jokic this season. They will be regarded as the best young Center duo in the NBA by far by the end of this season. Sorry KAT!

Team Awards Predictions

Most Valuable Player: Danilo Gallinari

Last Year: Will Barton

As stated above, Gallo is the most talented and best offensive player on this team (except for Jokic). If he is healthy, Danilo should put up a relatively efficient 20 PPG. He gets to the line at a very high rate and is a high percentage outside scorer. In terms of the literal definition of this award, Danilo is by far the most valuable player on the team. He is the only guy who can consistently get his own shot.Without him, the Nuggets would really struggle in late game scenarios and would severely lack an isolation scorer. We saw this a lot last season when Gallo was injured. As much as I love to see good team basketball, any good team absolutely needs at least an above average isolation scorer that they can rely on when the offense stagnates in the half court. Danilo’s ability to fill this role makes him the most valuable player on the Nuggets.

Coach of the Year: Mike Malone

Last Year: Mike Malone

Pretty obvious choice. I wouldn’t be surprised if Coach Malone received votes for the league wide COY award.

Six Man of the Year: Kenneth Faried

Last Year: Will Barton

This is a very hopeful projection. In order for this to happen, Darrell Arthur (or Jurkic or Danilo at the 4) would have to start and Kenneth Faried would have to accept a 6 man type role. Assuming he is not traded, I think this would be the ideal situation for the team. By putting DA in the starting five, the spacing drastically improves and so does the overall team defense. I still think Faried can be a very productive player, and I don’t think his contract is an albatross at all. Coming off the bench, the “Manimal” can expend mass energy in a short period of time. He can be plugged into many different lineups playing the 4 or the 5 against less offensively skilled 5s. Playing against 2nd string bigs, Faried’s defense will be well hidden, and his athleticism will shine. His offensive rebounding numbers as well as his high shooting percentage will earn the 6MOY award for the Denver Nuggets.

Rookie of the Year: Jamal Murray

Last Year: Nikola Jokic

It was extremely hard for me not to write in Juancho Hernangomez. Realistically, however, Jamal Murray will receive the most minutes of any rookie by a large margin. Barring trades and injuries, Beasley and Hernangomez unfortunately won’t see meaningful minutes in the regular season. Despite his great talent and seemingly good fit with Harris and Mudiay in the backcourt, expectations for Murray should be tempered. The Nuggets are going to be trying to win games this year, and as of now, Jameer Nelson and Will Barton are better options to take up the available minutes.

Most Improved Player: Emmanuel Mudiay

Last Year: Gary Harris

This is a big one. If Emmanuel Mudiay can make a similar jump to that of Gary Harris last year, the Nuggets will have a very good shot at making the playoffs. As stated above, Mudiay was very, very bad last season. If he can realize even 30% of his potential next year, the Nuggets will have an almost average starting point guard. This would be a huge improvement. The main aspects that I expect, and hope to see Mudiay improve in are his defense and shooting. The other players that I expect to see significant improvement from are Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. While these guys should improve, they have a higher starting point and therefore probably won’t be able to actually improve as much as Manny. We have seen him improve greatly over the course of last season, and if he can continue that trajectory, he will easily be the most improved player on the Nuggets.

Defensive Player of the Year: Wilson Chandler

Last Year: Darrell Arthur

This is a tough one. I don’t expect the Nuggets to be especially good defensively next season. That being said, the Nuggets have a few good defenders including Gary Harris, Ill Will, Darrell Arthur, and Nurkic. None of these players are defensive special, but they are all okay to good. The reason I chose Wilson Chandler is because of his versatility. Will is both a decent perimeter and post defender. Because of this, he is able to switch most screens that the Nuggets will encounter, most notably against the vaunted Warriors, Clippers, and Spurs. If on a Steph-Draymond P&R I would be totally fine with Wilson guarding either of them. Of course this is not ideal, but this type of versatility is what contending teams are looking for. I expect Malone to take full advantage of this by playing Chandler significant minutes at the 4. While playing the 4, Will will showcase his abilities, making him a good choice for Nuggets DPOY.

-Michael 🙂

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