Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Presidential Debates, Presidential Election

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DONALD TRUMP SORELY needs to turn in a strong debate performance this weekend. The last two weeks have brought a near-constant stream of bad news for the Republican candidate:

The one recent bright spot for Trump was his running mate Mike Pence winning the vice presidential debate by a narrow margin. But Pence’s win was blunted by post-debate coverage focusing on his inability (or unwillingness) to defend the statements and positions of the top of the ticket. Either way, vice presidential debates typically have little or no impact on the race for the White House.

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Polls have reacted to Trump’s struggles, giving Clinton a post-debate bounce both nationally and in most swing states. Depending on the forecast, Clinton is nearing or even over the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House. To win, Trump would need to win nearly all the remaining battlegrounds, or even flip a state or two from blue to red.

Trump’s bad stretch comes at an inopportune moment, because time for a course correction is even shorter than it seems. That’s because early voting is already underway in a number of states, with more states starting with each passing week. Estimates suggest around a third of voters will cast their ballots before Election Day this year. Every vote cast now is one fewer Trump could win back if he were to mount a comeback.

Trump is already at a disadvantage in early voting because he lacks the kind of turnout operation the Clinton campaign has up and running in battleground states. Throughout the campaign cycle, Trump has had fewer offices, staffers, and resources dedicated to bringing his voters to the polls. The Clinton campaign’s ground operation, on the other hand, will press their advantage, banking votes ahead of the Election Day push.

All this makes Sunday night that much more important for Trump. Expectations will be low after the first debate, which could work in his favor. The campaign is sending mixed signals about his preparations for the event, which will be a town hall format. Last night Trump did something like that in New Hampshire, but reports from the event indicate it was shorter than Sunday’s debate, and with a largely friendly audience, questions, and moderator (Boston’s own Howie Carr). Trump himself denied it was meant to prepare him for the main event. “They were saying this is practice for Sunday. This isn’t practice,” Trump told the crowd.

Meet the Author Rich Parr Research Director , The MassINC Polling Group About Rich Parr Richard Parr is Research Director with The MassINC Polling Group. Rich contributes a deep familiarity with Massachusetts policies, politics and media, as well as a background in public policy and media. Since joining MPG in 2013, Rich has taken primary responsibility for data processing and contributes to survey and sample design. He uses his background in policy and media to craft and edit analysis memos and reports attuned to the political context and salient issues. Rich oversaw data visualization and mapping for WBUR’s Poll Vault during the 2014 election cycle, and co-authored and edited several piece for the site. Prior to joining MPG, Rich was Policy Director at A Better City, a nonprofit representing Boston-area businesses and institutions on transportation, land development and the environment. In that role Rich became a recognized expert on transportation finance and helped organize a statewide coalition which succeeded in elevating transportation to a top legislative priority. He launched and edited ABC’s blog and oversaw its social media presence. Rich continues to work on transportation projects in his spare time and for MassINC, MPG’s parent think-tank. He is a member of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council’s Legislative Committee and the Boston Bikes Advisory Group, for which MPG has conducted pro-bono analysis. Before joining ABC, Rich produced web content for the award-winning PBS documentary series FRONTLINE. He has also worked in new media for political campaigns and in media operations for the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Rich holds a Bachelor’s degree in Literature from Harvard College. About Rich Parr Richard Parr is Research Director with The MassINC Polling Group. Rich contributes a deep familiarity with Massachusetts policies, politics and media, as well as a background in public policy and media. Since joining MPG in 2013, Rich has taken primary responsibility for data processing and contributes to survey and sample design. He uses his background in policy and media to craft and edit analysis memos and reports attuned to the political context and salient issues. Rich oversaw data visualization and mapping for WBUR’s Poll Vault during the 2014 election cycle, and co-authored and edited several piece for the site. Prior to joining MPG, Rich was Policy Director at A Better City, a nonprofit representing Boston-area businesses and institutions on transportation, land development and the environment. In that role Rich became a recognized expert on transportation finance and helped organize a statewide coalition which succeeded in elevating transportation to a top legislative priority. He launched and edited ABC’s blog and oversaw its social media presence. Rich continues to work on transportation projects in his spare time and for MassINC, MPG’s parent think-tank. He is a member of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council’s Legislative Committee and the Boston Bikes Advisory Group, for which MPG has conducted pro-bono analysis. Before joining ABC, Rich produced web content for the award-winning PBS documentary series FRONTLINE. He has also worked in new media for political campaigns and in media operations for the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Rich holds a Bachelor’s degree in Literature from Harvard College.

Practice or not, the stakes are “yuge” for Trump Sunday night. If he stumbles again, he may have lost his best chance to get back in the race. The third and final debate is 10 days later. That’s 10 days closer to an Election Day that may already be too close for a Trump comeback.

Rich Parr is research director at The MassINC Polling Group.

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