[np_storybar title=”Live results: A riding-by-riding breakdown” link=”http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/canadian-election-results-2015-a-live-riding-by-riding-breakdown-of-the-vote”%5D

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals’ powerful election victory shows that the environmental left’s message remains on the political fringe — even if it does mean a more cautious federal approach to energy development in Canada.

The anti-energy movement’s failure to translate opposition to oil pipelines, tankers and oilsands development into political support is apparent in British Columbia, where the Liberals dominated Metro Vancouver, the Green party failed to build on Elizabeth May’s single seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and the NDP’s early lead collapsed despite efforts by politically active groups like Dogwood Initiative to turn the election into a referendum on oil pipelines and tankers.

The Liberals even scooped the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour, a closely watched race where political newcomer Terry Beech, a small-business owner, defeated by a wide margin the NDP’s star candidate, Carol Baird Ellan, a former chief judge of the Provincial Court of British Columbia who was endorsed by activists opposed to the expansion of the TransMountain pipeline. The Greens scraped out just five per cent support for Simon Fraser University professor Lynne Quarmby, who was involved in the Burnaby Mountain protests against the Kinder Morgan project.

The riding straddles Burrard Inlet, where TransMountain’s pipeline terminal is located, and where oil tankers sail by.

“Maybe Burnaby North-Seymour was a referendum (on energy) after all — one in which the alarmist tanker safety views of some candidates were contrasted with a Conservative approach that seemed too soft on the proponent, and voters chose a middle path,” said Stewart Muir, executive director of Vancouver-based energy research organization Resource Works, in an analysis of election results.

In an interview, Muir said the bellwether riding demonstrated that British Columbians want a balance between the economy and the environment.

While the Conservatives failed to successfully promote that, voters did not flip to an anti-oil party but chose one that would strike the balance better, he said.

The Liberals took 17 seats in B.C, gaining 15 from 2011; the NDP ended with 14, up 2; the Conservatives held on to 10, down from 21.

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The anti-energy vote also failed to build in Alberta, where the federal NDP kept its single seat and did not benefit from May’s historic win by the provincial NDP under Rachel Notley. Her government has been pursuing an aggressive environmental agenda at a time of energy industry distress.

In contrast, the Liberals won four seats, including two in Calgary, which last elected a Liberal MP in 1968.

Trudeau’s majority win means a second wave of political change for Alberta after the provincial NDP defeated the long governing provincial Tories. Harper’s loss and leadership resignation means the province has lost influence in Ottawa, but Trudeau seems eager to do what is right for its energy sector. He has given qualified support to the Keystone XL, Energy East and Kinder Morgan’s TransMountain pipeline projects, though he also plans to bring in tougher environmental review processes and a national plan to tackle greenhouse gases. He is opposed to the Northern Gateway project.

Michal Moore, professor of energy economics at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said there is a bright side to Trudeau’s win for the energy industry, which has been struggling to get important pipelines built, something frequently blamed on Harper’s slow progress on climate change policy.

“There is every reason for a Trudeau-led government to want to find a successful and resilient rebirth of the energy industry, and that is probably going to be one that has more carbon responsibilities,” Moore said. “The issue of carbon control is going to turn out to be such a global market issue that, even if you don’t believe in it, you won’t be able to sell your stuff at a competitive price until those concerns are met.”

During the campaign, the Liberal position was “Canada needs new infrastructure, including pipelines, to move our energy resources to domestic and global markets. However these projects must earn the trust of local communities, respect Indigenous rights, and cannot put our lands and waters at risk.”

The party also said the Conservatives’ “polarizing approach to resource development and pipelines has hurt rather than enhanced Canada’s ability to get resources to market.”

Trudeau’s pro-Keystone stance won’t please Washington., where President Obama is expected to reject the project now that the Canadian election is out of the way. But U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday Canada’s change in government won’t change the outcome.

“The decision on Keystone is being based on the merits and on the countervailing balance of all the input that has come from a very exhaustive agency review. I have said again and again I want to get that done as fast as possible, and that is very true. I want to get it done,” he said Tuesday at the Climate and Clean Energy Investment Forum in Washington, D.C.

With Obama’s term in office ending next year, Trudeau has more time on his side and fresh support for Keystone could still emerge under a new U.S. administration. With Harper out, the Liberals have a chance to try showing that gentler face of Canada’s energy sector and keep hardliners at bay. That’s assuming they haven’t underestimated the complexities of pipeline politics — and are genuinely willing to do the hard work required to get them back on track.

Financial Post

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