Probability of choosing two equal bits from three random bits Given three random bits, pick two (without replacement). What is the probability that the two you pick are equal?
I would like to know if the following analysis is correct and/or if there is a better way to think about it.
$$\Pr[\text{choose two equal bits}] = \Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 0 \mid \text{1st bit} = 0] + \Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 1 \mid \text{1st bit} = 1]$$
Given three random bits, once you remove the first bit the other two bits can be: 00, 01, 11, each of which occurring with probability $\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{4}$. Thus,
$$\Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 0] = 1\cdot\frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{1}{4} + 0\cdot\frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{8}$$
And $\Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 1] = \Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 0]$ by the same analysis.
Therefore,
$$\Pr[\text{2nd bit}=0 \mid \text{1st bit} = 0] = \frac{\Pr[\text{1st and 2nd bits are 0}]}{\Pr[\text{1st bit}=0]} = \frac{1/2\cdot3/8}{1/2} = \frac{3}{8}$$
and by the same analysis, $\Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 1 \mid \text{1st bit} = 1] = \frac{3}{8}$.
Thus, $$\Pr[\text{choose two equal bits}] = 2\cdot\frac{3}{8} = \frac{3}{4}$$

Whatever the first bit picked, the probability the second bit matches it is $1/2$.   
Remark: We are assuming what was not explicitly stated, that $0$'s and $1$'s are equally likely. One can very well have "random" bits where the probability of $0$ is not the same as the probability of $1$.
