Calculating the probability of an event occurring in a specific time period I am confused at how to approach the following question, i.e. what probability formula I am supposed to use.
If the probability of a flood is 0.12 during a year, what is the probability of two floods over the next 10 years...?
I have thought perhaps trying Geometric distribution at first, but it didn't seem to work out properly. I also tried Poisson, but it turned out to be quite a small number... which doesn't seem viable.
So my question is, how can I go about solving this and which probability distribution am I supposed to use? 
Thanks in advance

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't this just be another Poisson function?  Assuming you could have more than 1 flood per year
The expected value --> E(x) = lambda10 = for 10 years = lambda1 * 10 = .12*10 = 1.2 floods in a 10 year period.
So then rerun Poisson's for this new period of 10 years with x = 2 --> P(2) = (1.2^2)e^(-1.2)/2! = .216859 = 21.69% chance of getting EXACTLY 2 floods over 10 years.
