Calculating the probability of an event occurring in a specific time period I am confused at how to approach the following question, i.e. what probability formula I am supposed to use.
If the probability of a flood is 0.12 during a year, what is the probability of two floods over the next 10 years...?
I have thought perhaps trying Geometric distribution at first, but it didn't seem to work out properly. I also tried Poisson, but it turned out to be quite a small number... which doesn't seem viable.
So my question is, how can I go about solving this and which probability distribution am I supposed to use? 
Thanks in advance

If it is only possible to flood once a year if at all (like the Nile) but not twice, then you are looking at a binomial with $n=10$ and $p=0.12$ in either $${n \choose 2}p^2 (1-p)^{n-2} $$ or $$ 1- p^0 (1-p)^{n-0} - np^1 (1-p)^{n-1}$$ depending on whether you want exactly or at least $2$ floods in $10$ years.
