Probability of choosing two equal bits from three random bits Given three random bits, pick two (without replacement). What is the probability that the two you pick are equal?
I would like to know if the following analysis is correct and/or if there is a better way to think about it.
$$\Pr[\text{choose two equal bits}] = \Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 0 \mid \text{1st bit} = 0] + \Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 1 \mid \text{1st bit} = 1]$$
Given three random bits, once you remove the first bit the other two bits can be: 00, 01, 11, each of which occurring with probability $\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{4}$. Thus,
$$\Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 0] = 1\cdot\frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{1}{4} + 0\cdot\frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{8}$$
And $\Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 1] = \Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 0]$ by the same analysis.
Therefore,
$$\Pr[\text{2nd bit}=0 \mid \text{1st bit} = 0] = \frac{\Pr[\text{1st and 2nd bits are 0}]}{\Pr[\text{1st bit}=0]} = \frac{1/2\cdot3/8}{1/2} = \frac{3}{8}$$
and by the same analysis, $\Pr[\text{2nd bit} = 1 \mid \text{1st bit} = 1] = \frac{3}{8}$.
Thus, $$\Pr[\text{choose two equal bits}] = 2\cdot\frac{3}{8} = \frac{3}{4}$$

I hope I'm not repeating anyone else's answer here. 
Since there are 3 bits, there are $2^3$ possible combinations. We can break them down into 2 categories: 
Category 1: all bits are the same, i.e. $\{000,111 \}$.
Category 2: two bits are 0, one is 1.
Category 3: two bits are 1, one is 0.
Clearly the last category is the same as 2.
Hence your law of total probability should be something like 
$$
P(\text{sample two same bits})=P(\text{sample 2 same bits}|C1)P(C1) +2P(\text{sample 2 same bits}|C_2)P(C_2)\\
=1 \cdot \frac{2}{2^3} + 2 \cdot \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{2} \cdot \binom{3}{1}\cdot \frac{1}{2^3}=\frac{1}{2}
$$
Expanation: $\binom{3}{1} \cdot \frac{1}{2^3}$ is the probability of the outcome 'two bits are the same 1, one is different' (since you have 3 slots). $\frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{2}$ is the probability to sample two of those equal bits without replacement. 2 is of course due to 2 options (0 or 1).  
