Calculating the probability of an event occurring in a specific time period I am confused at how to approach the following question, i.e. what probability formula I am supposed to use.
If the probability of a flood is 0.12 during a year, what is the probability of two floods over the next 10 years...?
I have thought perhaps trying Geometric distribution at first, but it didn't seem to work out properly. I also tried Poisson, but it turned out to be quite a small number... which doesn't seem viable.
So my question is, how can I go about solving this and which probability distribution am I supposed to use? 
Thanks in advance

I would try Poisson distribution with lambda = 1.2
Did you try to calculate exactly 2 floods or 2 or more floods?
