3D Printing: Overview, Impacts, and the Federal Role

Summary: Three-dimensional (3D) printing, also known as additive manufacturing, is a highly flexible manufacturing process that has been used in product development and production for the past 30 years. Greater capabilities, lower prices, and an expanded range of manufacturing materials have vastly expanded adoption of 3D printers over the last decade and a half. The economic and scientific potential of this technology, as well as certain regulatory concerns (such as 3D printing of firearms), have recently increased congressional interest.

Summary: 3D printers are used in a variety of industriesâsuch as aerospace, medicine, and educationâas well as in nonspecific custom prototyping. Both private industry and the federal government have supported these applications of 3D printing. Support from the federal government has included basic and applied research funding from the National Science Foundation, as well as research and development funding from mission agencies such as the Department of Defense, the National Institutes of Health, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. More broadly, federal support for additive manufacturing has been provided through the flagship institute of the Manufacturing USA program, the National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (also known as America Makes). This consortium of industry, university, and government seeks to "[accelerate] the adoption of additive manufacturing technologies in the United States to increase domestic manufacturing competitiveness." In recent years, hundreds of millions of dollarsâpublic and privateâhave been invested in 3D printing-related companies and 3D printing research and development.

Summary: 3D printers span a range of alternative capabilities, print with many different kinds of materials, and are capable of building products at a variety of scales. The price of a 3D printer varies with its capabilities; machines may cost from hundreds of dollars to millions of dollars.

Summary: 3D printing uses a fundamentally different process than most methods for traditional manufacturing. Much of modern manufacturing uses subtractive manufacturing processes, beginning with a block of material (e.g., a tube, a bar, or an ingot) and using a variety of tools to remove parts of the initial material to achieve a final design. 3D printers are additive, stacking up and fusing thin layer upon thin layer of a material (or materials) onto a blank platform to achieve a final design. This allows for flexibility and complexity in the manufacturing of 3D-printed items. Four primary properties of 3D printers stem from this unique additive construction method: reduced waste, capacity to create parts with high internal complexity, cost-effectiveness of small production runs, and ease of design modification.

Summary: These four primary properties of 3D printers translate into several distinctive manufacturing impacts: potential reduction in discrete parts per product, potential reduction in manufacturing costs, improved prototyping abilities, potential reduction in part weight or improvement in part strength, potential reduction in inventory, mass customization, potential environmental efficiency, decentralized manufacturing, and low barriers to entry.

Summary: Although these manufacturing impacts are particularly advantageous for some manufacturing activities, most experts say the current state of 3D printing tends to make the technology a poor fit for mass production of simple parts. For this reason, some have estimated that 3D printing may account for 5% to 10% of manufacturing in the long term.

Summary: In general, 3D printing has been widely viewed as a driver for American economic development, national security, and combat readiness. At the same time, some have expressed concerns about potential adverse effects of this technology, such as its potential use in the manufacture of firearms or other contraband material by individual criminals, criminal organizations, or terrorists.

Summary: 3D printing technology is expected to mature substantially in the coming decades to allow the use of new materials, faster production speeds, and lower costs. Prices of consumer 3D printers have fallen by about 80% over the past decade and appear poised to continue to fall. Industrial 3D printing is increasingly an essential part of the U.S. manufacturing portfolio, and it appears to be critical to the nation's upcoming advanced manufacturing strategy.

Three-dimensional (3D) printing is a manufacturing process used to create real-world parts from digital 3D design files. This process is of particular relevance to Congress because of its use in federal programs; economic potential; continued applications in scientific research and development; roles in national security; and potential areas of concern, including weapons development and intellectual property law. This report describes the basic parts common to 3D printers and explains the operation of the technology. It also provides a snapshot of current materials and capabilities, traces the historical development of the technology since 1980, provides information on the federal role in 3D printing, communicates the primary properties of 3D printing with reference to manufacturing, explains secondary manufacturing impacts that stem from these properties, and highlights particular issues relevant to Congress.

3D printing is sometimes known as additive manufacturing . The term additive refers to the construction of a final part through the addition of consecutive layers of material on a build plate. In contrast, subtractive manufacturing processes carve out a final part from an initial block by removing unwanted material. Computer-controlled additive and subtractive manufacturing originated in the 1980s and 1970s, respectively. Yet, the basic techniques underlying these manufacturing methodsâthat is, addition or removal of material to create a productâhave existed for millennia.

3D printing is used in a wide variety of applications, including aerospace, medicine, defense, custom manufacturing, prototyping, art, hobbies, and education (see Table 1 ). The prices, capabilities, and dimensions of 3D printers also vary widely. For more information, see " Current Materials and Capabilities " section below.

In general, 3D printers have five common parts: input material, print head, build plate, axes, and 3D design file (see Figure 1 ).

Input material â3D-printed parts begin as input material. This material can be in the form of solid filament, pellets, liquid, or powder.

Print head âThe input material is deposited at the tip of the print head. This process can occur through a variety of methods, including pushing filament or pellets through a metal extruder, using a laser to melt powder, or using a light to solidify liquid.

Build plate âThe build plate is the base (flat surface) upon which the part is constructed. At the beginning of the 3D printing process, the print head is nearly touching the build plate. As more layers are added to the part, the distance between the print head and the build plate increases.

Axes âThe axes move the print head relative to the build plate. This enables the 3D printer to create a particular pattern for each new layer of material. The final part is made up of the patterns in each layer, stacked on top of each other.

3D design file âThe 3D printing process is governed by a digital 3D design file. This file provides instructions to the 3D printer that describe how to move the axes, which in turn move the position of the print head relative to the build plate. The file controls exactly what patterns are produced in each layer; this determines which kind of part is produced by the 3D printer (see Figure 2 ).

The prices and capabilities of 3D printers span a wide range of options. Prices vary from several hundred dollars to millions of dollars. More specifically, 3D printers at the price range of $5,000 and below (known as consumer printers ) often are designed to print plastic parts. Several different plastics are available, each with different capabilities and costs. These materials include tough nylon plastics; flexible, rubber-like plastics; plastics reinforced with carbon fiber; dissolvable plastics; clear plastics; and decorative plastics with the appearance of wood or metal. Some 3D printers in this price range can also print using materials such as ceramic or chocolate.

Structural metal-infused plastic, as opposed to decorative metal-infused plastic, also can be used in 3D printers at this price range. However, structural metal-infused 3D-printed parts require additional high-temperature post-processing to burn off the plastic. This process leaves an entirely metal product behind. The necessary high temperatures for post-processing can be attained using pottery kilns, sintering machines, or other specialized devices. Commercial services are available that offer high-temperature post-processing of metal-infused 3D-printed parts.

3D printers at the price range of $5,000 and up (known as industrial printers) are able to use a wider variety of materials in an even greater variety of applications. These 3D printers can create structures that are larger, more detailed, or more reliable than structures created by consumer printers, or they can print in materials that are unavailable at lower price ranges. For example, medical biofabrication printers can print structures made of living cells. Metal 3D printers can create parts out of titanium, steel, and other metals, which may cost less than traditional subtractive machining processes. Large-format plastic 3D printers can create parts that are more than 6 feet tall. Some concrete 3D printers can manufacture the walls of an entire building.

The development and growth of 3D printing can be described in three major periods. The period spanning 1980 to 2010 marks the creation of the technology, its industrial use, and the beginning of the consumer 3D printing movement. Between 2010 and 2015, the 3D printing market continued to expand, despite signs of weakening in 2014. Since 2015, prices for consumer 3D printers have fallen, while sales of consumer and industrial 3D printers have continued to rise as the technology has matured.

The first major patents for 3D printing methods were filed in the 1980s, creating a nascent 3D printing market for industrial clients. In the 1990s, 3D printers using plastic, metal, paper, ceramic, and wax became available at prices from thousands of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars. In the early 2000s, the 3D printer market expanded into specialized industries, including medicine, dentistry, and jewelry. At the same time, new plastic printing materials were developed.

The first decade of the 21 st century marked the expiration of several key 1980s 3D printing patents. In the same period, consumers gained access to improved web connectivity and user-friendly computer-aided design (CAD) tools. These factors contributed to the birth of the consumer 3D printing movement. Key developments in this movement included the formation of the open-source 3D printer community; the 2007 release of the first website for print-on-demand custom 3D prints (Shapeways); and the 2008 creation of the popular 3D printing file-sharing website Thingiverse. In 2009, MakerBot, one of the first consumer 3D printing companies, released a $750 3D printer that incorporated some of the off-patent technologies from the 1980s.

The consumer market for 3D printers expanded in the 2010s, fueled in part by the continued expiration of 20 th -century patents. Offerings included branded 3D printers, unbranded kits sold on eBay, and 3D printers funded on crowdfunding sites. Prices of bare-bones consumer 3D printers fell to $500-$600. Higher-end consumer printers gained advanced features that made them easier to use and maintain.

Innovations in 3D design software and improvements in printer reliability contributed to the spread of consumer and industrial 3D printers in shared makerspaces, commercial establishments, libraries, and universities. 3D file sharing also became widespread, both for paid and free models. One 3D file website, Thingiverse, had more than 2 million active users in 2015. Transmission of 3D design files occurred not only through mainstream file-sharing sites such as Thingiverse, 3DShook, and Cults but also through anonymous channels, including internet torrents (a distributed, hard-to-trace online file-sharing method). At the same time, materials for consumer and industrial 3D printers grew more diverse and were sold by more companies, helping to reduce 3D printing costs.

Print-on-demand services also expanded in this period, offering a wide variety of materials, including plastics, precious metals, and ceramics. These services allowed consumers to purchase a 3D-printed part made from their own 3D design file but fabricated by a third party. Some of the early print-on-demand services offered the ability to purchase printing services from a peer-to-peer network of individually owned desktop 3D printers.

The 3D printing industry began to show signs of weakening in 2014 after a period of growth and consolidation. In June 2015, Time magazine reported that the stocks of four leading 3D printing companies had "lost between 71% and 80% of their market value in the past 17 months." Between January and October 2015, the 3D printing company Stratasys laid off 36% of staff in its MakerBot division.

At the same time, annual grants of 3D printing-related patents more than doubled between 2010 and 2015, from 247 to 545. In 2015, industrial unit sales of 3D printers declined by 2.3% while consumer unit sales increased by 49.4%. Unit sales of both industrial and consumer 3D printers generally have shown sustained upward trends (see Figure 3 and Figure 4 ). Total 3D printing industry revenues increased year-over-year since 1993, with the exception of 2001, 2002, and 2009. On average, 3D printing industry revenues have grown annually over the past 30 years by 26.9%.

Recent 3D Printing History (2015-Present)

The period from 2015 to 2019 has seen renewed 3D printing investment, in terms of both research and development and investment in growing companies. Corporations (such as General Electric, Google Ventures, Alcoa, and Norsk Titanium AS) and federal departments and agenciesâsuch as the Department of Defense (DOD) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH)âhave invested a combined total of hundreds of millions of dollars in 3D printing initiatives over this period.

At the same time, the price of consumer 3D printers has continued to fall. As of July 2019, a basic 3D plastic printer can be purchased online for less than $150. 3D printers in the low hundred-dollar range generally can be used after simple assembly or directly out of the box. The input material for these basic 3D printers is usually a spool of plastic filament, which can be purchased for less than $9 per pound.

Sales of both industrial and consumer 3D printers have continued to rise. According to one market analysis, 19,285 industrial 3D printers and 591,079 consumer 3D printers were sold in 2018 (see Figure 3 and Figure 4 ). Further, that analysis estimates that a total of more than 140,000 industrial 3D printers and 2 million consumer 3D printers have been sold worldwide. This may be an underestimation of consumer 3D printers, because it does not include those assembled from parts or those purchased as kits.

3D-print-on-demand services now serve the consumer and industrial markets. These services provide access to industrial-grade 3D printers, allowing users to create high-precision parts out of plastic or other materials. In general, individuals do not have to create their own files for 3D printing; many online databases of 3D design files are available. Users also may join online 3D printing communities, some of which have hundreds of thousands to millions of users.

The Wohlers Report estimates that annual 3D printing industry revenues reached $9.975 billion globally in 2018. However, 3D printing makes up less than 1% of manufacturing revenues worldwide. Further, analysts predict that most future products will be created through traditional manufacturing methods, even when 3D printing is technologically mature. Some estimates predict that 3D printing will eventually account for 5%-10% of total global manufacturing revenues.

Several issues may limit the overall effectiveness and utility of current 3D printing technologies, including quality control, cybersecurity, and relative production speed as compared to traditional manufacturing. New evaluation methods, certification programs, cybersecurity advances, and research and development programs may help to address these limiting issues.

Private industry has long been the primary innovator in 3D printing technology, accounting for an estimated 90% of additive manufacturing patents through 2015. DOD's Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) found that the federal government played a relatively small but instrumental role in the creation of 3D printing technology, providing "direct funding for developing early phases of the technology and later refinements in two of the four processes." According to IDA,

[Federal] support of early research ... created the knowledge, technologies, and tools later adopted in the [additive manufacturing] field and applied by inventors to develop foundational AM patents and technologies. The knowledge generated from federally sponsored [research and development] from the early 1970s influenced the patents filed in the 1980s and 1990s and later innovations. Observations from the backwards citations analysis of the foundational patents show that some of the earliest investors in AM were the Department of Defense Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which provided steady, continual streams of funding for both academic and industry-based researchers. NSF support was also instrumental in the development of early relevant AM research in the 1970s.

The IDA report further credited federal "support of knowledge diffusion from the foundational patents to improve the technologies and develop new applications."

The report also noted that the National Science Foundation (NSF) participated in the development of four of six foundational 3D printing processes developed in the 1980s and 1990s. According to the 2015 report, NSF "provided almost 600 grants for [additive manufacturing] research and other activities over the past 25 years, amounting to more than $200 million (in 2005 dollars) in funding."

In 2012, President Obama announced the establishment of the National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (NAMII) in Youngstown, OH, as a pilot institute under the National Network of Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI, now referred to as Manufacturing USA). Under NAMII, the Departments of Defense, Energy, and Commerce; the National Science Foundation; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); 40 companies; 9 research universities; 5 community colleges; and 11 nonprofit organizations collaborated to share resources, move basic research toward product development, and provide workforce education and training. The National Center for Defense Manufacturing and Machining was selected to manage the NAMII pilot institute through a competitive selection process. In 2013, NAMII was rebranded as America Makes.

The Manufacturing USA program's four stated goals are to

increase the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing; facilitate the transition of innovative technologies into scalable, cost-effective, and high-performing domestic manufacturing capabilities; accelerate the development of an advanced manufacturing workforce; and support business models that help the Manufacturing USA institutes to become stable and sustainable after the initial federal startup funding period.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that America Makes was to receive $56 million in federal funding and $85 million in nonfederal funding from August 2012 to August 2019. As of December 2018, America Makes had 225 members.

Many national laboratories use 3D printing, including Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory.

The U.S. government also purchases 3D-printed products in several capacities; a 2016 report by the General Services Administration (GSA) notes that the Department of Defense purchases an especially wide variety of 3D-printed parts for defensive and medical purposes. The GSA offers a specific procurement subcategory for federal purchases of 3D printing technology.

The federal government is involved in the creation of 3D printing standards, as well. Among other initiatives, the U.S. Air Force granted a private U.S. company $6 million in 2016 to develop standards for 3D-printed rocket engines. This grant was intended to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign-made launch vehicle components. Similarly, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is working with industry organizations to develop certification methods for 3D-printed parts. The FAA published a road map in September 2018 that "includes training and education, development of regulatory documents, Research and Development (R&D) plan and interagency communication." Further, the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Food and Drug Administration operate several projects in pursuit of improved process qualification for 3D printing. At the same time, standards have been developed privately by Committee F42, a technical group formed in 2009 by ASTM International and the Society of Manufacturing Engineers.

In some cases, 3D printing offers advantages when compared to traditional methods of manufacturing, such as injection molding, drilling, or welding. These benefits stem from the particular design of the technology (see " Technical Overview ") and have changed the national security, manufacturing, and economic landscapes. The following list of properties provides an overview of ways in which 3D printing deviates from previously established manufacturing technologies.

Reduced waste â In general, the additive manufacturing process uses only the approximate amount of material needed to produce a product; subtractive manufacturing processes remove materials to produce a product, which inherently generates waste. Accordingly, less input material may be wasted in additive manufacturing. To the extent that some input material is wasted in 3D printing, that material can sometimes be recycled into new stock for use in making other 3D-printed parts.

Capacity to create parts with high internal complexity â 3D-printed parts are constructed layer by layer, which means complex internal geometries (such as hidden cavities or small channels) can be constructed easily.

Cost-effectiveness of small production runs â 3D printers do not require significant retooling when a new or modified part is manufactured. In contrast, manufacturing technologies such as injection molding or die casting incur significant retooling costs when a part design is modified.

Ease of design modification â Digital 3D design files can be easily modified and transmitted.

Potential reduction in discrete parts per product â The high internal complexity of 3D-printed parts means that several distinct manufacturing processes (e.g., machining and welding) can often be integrated into a single 3D printing operation. This has supported manufacturing of parts that previously would have been impossible or prohibitively expensive. Single-piece construction can also result in parts that have fewer weak spots.

Potential reduction in manufacturing costs â 3D printing provides an alternative for companies considering investments in machine tools. In some cases, 3D printing may be more cost-effective than traditional options; this is particularly true for short-run, custom, or complex parts. 3D printing may be less cost-effective for parts that would require fewer post-processing steps if manufactured using traditional methods. The smaller size of a 3D printer compared to traditional manufacturing equipment may also reduce required physical plant size and related costs.

Improved prototyping abilities â Easy modification of design files, combined with the cost-effectiveness of short runs of parts, supports the ability to rapidly prototype parts using 3D printing. This rapid prototyping ability allows designs to be optimized and adjusted quickly.

Potential reduction in part weight or improvement in part strengthâ The capacity to create complex internal structures using 3D printing has improved manufacturers' ability to create parts that are lighter or stronger. This has shown particular promise in the aerospace and automotive industries.

Potential reduction in inventory â Large production runs usually are pursued in traditional manufacturing to minimize fixed costs per part. Often, many of the goods produced must be held in storage as inventory. The ability to create 3D-printed parts on demand may allow manufacturers to reduce their inventory of parts. Low set-up costs associated with additive manufacturing allow for smaller production runs, reducing the amount of capital tied up in inventory as well as overhead costs such as storage and insurance.

Mass customization â 3D-printed parts may be individually customized on a large scale. Additive manufacturing allows for the production of unique parts, sometimes modified from a basic design, to suit the needs of individual consumers.

Potential environmental efficiency â Reduced waste and the lack of a need for retooling 3D printers supports environmental efficiency in manufacturing. Energy costs also can be reduced by "re-manufacturing" parts using 3D printingâthat is, creating salable products by reconstructing worn-out areas of old parts, instead of manufacturing parts from entirely new input materials.

Decentralized manufacturing â 3D printers can be used to develop parts in a decentralized capacity. This may reduce the time required to provide parts to consumers, as well as the cost, energy, and environmental impacts of shipping.

Low barriers to entry â The comparatively low cost of 3D printing equipment may lower the barrier to entry to manufacturing. This may cause positive or negative impacts; although productivity in legal industry may increase, 3D printing also may be used to support manufacturing of contraband items, including light weapons or parts of nuclear weapons. Low barriers to entry also may create potential negative impacts for established businesses facing new competitors.

3D printing is a relatively new approach to manufacturing, and the number of 3D printers in use has expanded greatly over the past 15 years. Some industry leaders and policymakers have expressed optimism about the potential of this technology to address certain manufacturing needs. 3D printing is seen as a tool for enabling cost-effective, customized, local production of parts, and in some cases, it allows for the production of parts that cannot be made using traditional manufacturing processes. 3D printing is also seen as enabling innovation and entrepreneurship by lowering the cost of entry into manufacturing.

The federal government has played an important R&D role in the development and improvement of 3D printers. In addition, some agenciesâsuch as DOD, NASA, and NIHâare using 3D printing capabilities to accomplish their missions, such as by making or acquiring parts that are no longer available, custom parts, or prototypes for testing and evaluation.

As 3D printing technology matures, Congress may face a variety of related issues. Among these issues are how much funding to provide for R&D on 3D printing technology and materials; how much funding to provide for education and training activities focused on preparing scientists, engineers, technicians, and others for careers related to 3D printing; whether federal acquisition strategies need to be modified to reflect the availability of 3D-printed parts; how to ensure that U.S. regulatory agencies can appropriately address 3D printing processes and products; and whether and how the federal government can facilitate the development of industry standards and systems for testing and certification of 3D printing.

One of the federal government's flagship efforts focused on 3D printing is the America Makes manufacturing institute, the first institute established as part of the Manufacturing USA program. America Makes is a public-private partnership that seeks to "[accelerate] the adoption of additive manufacturing technologies in the United States to increase domestic manufacturing competitiveness."

Some have raised concerns over the long-term sustainability of the Manufacturing USA institutes after their period of initial federal financial assistance, which extends for five to seven years. According to the GAO, the agency sponsors of the institutesâDepartment of Commerce, Department of Energy, and DODâ"have taken steps to support their institutes' sustainability planning but have not developed criteria to evaluate whether institutes are on track to sustain their operations beyond the initial period of federal financial assistance." Institute representatives have expressed concern that the institutes may seek or accept support from foreign corporations, potentially undermining the competitiveness goals of the institutes. Congress may monitor the progress of the America Makes institute toward sustainability and consider whether the federal government should provide continuing financial support. Current bills in the 116 th Congress related to this issue include H.R. 2397 .

Some have expressed concern about the potential use of 3D printing in the manufacture of firearms or other contraband material by individual criminals, criminal organizations, terrorists, or others precluded from the possession of such devices. Congress may wish to consider approaches to limiting or preventing such uses of 3D printing. Current bills in the 116 th Congress related to this issue include S. 1831 and H.R. 3265 .

3D printing may raise intellectual property (IP) issues. For example, the U.S. Army has stated that IP difficulties may impede the fabrication of 3D-printed parts in the field. A 2014 industry survey also indicated that manufacturers consider the "threat to intellectual property" to be a major concern created by the proliferation of 3D printing. Congress may explore how IP issues could impede the legitimate use of 3D printing, particularly its use by the federal government, and what options may be available for addressing such barriers. Current bills in the 116 th Congress related to this issue include H.R. 3313 .

3D printing is an alternative manufacturing process with particular strengths and weaknesses. Although the technology is not suitable for all types of manufacturing, it is used in a wide variety of industries, including aerospace, medicine, and custom manufacturing. 3D printing has remained in wide use by the federal government, as well. The technology is likely to grow in usage as new materials become available, material and machine costs continue to fall, and quality issues are addressed.

The influences that 3D printing has on the U.S. manufacturing landscape stem from an improved capacity for relatively inexperienced users to create extremely complex parts. This may create regulatory, IP, or safety challenges. At the same time, the manufacturing abilities provided by 3D printers also promote economic development and new avenues of scientific and medical exploration. For these reasons, 3D printing is likely to offer both challenges and opportunities over the coming years.


India’s 2019 National Election and Implications for U.S. Interests

Summary: India, a federal republic and the world's most populous democracy, held elections to seat a new lower house of parliament in April and May of 2019. Estimates suggest that more than two-thirds of the country's nearly 900 million eligible voters participated. The 545-seat Lok Sabha (People's House) is seated every five years, and the results saw a return to power of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was chief minister of the west Indian state of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014. Modi's party won decisivelyâit now holds 56% of Lok Sabha seats and Modi became the first Indian leader to win consecutive majorities since Indira Gandhi in 1971.

Summary: The United States and India have been pursuing an expansive strategic partnership since 2005. The Trump Administration and many in the U.S. Congress welcomed Modi's return to power for another five-year term. Successive U.S. Presidents have deemed India's growing power and influence a boon to U.S. interests in Asia and globally, not least in the context of balancing against China's increasing assertiveness. India is often called a preeminent actor in the Trump Administration's strategy for a "free and open Indo-Pacific." Yet there are potential stumbling blocks to continued development of the partnership. In 2019, differences over trade have become more prominent, and India's long-standing (and mostly commercial) ties to Russia and Iran may run afoul of U.S. sanctions laws. Additionally, India maintains a wariness of U.S. engagement with Pakistan and intentions in Afghanistan, with Islamabad presently facilitating a U.S.-Taliban dialogue and India counseling against a precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Summary: Prime Minister Modi's return to power promises broad continuity, even with some notable changes to the federal cabinet. By many accounts, Modi's record as an economic reformer and liberalizer is mixed, and his reputation as a nationalist "watchman" has not always translated into effective foreign policy, according to some analysts. It is unclear if Modi will use his renewed domestic political mandate to pursue more assertiveness internationally, possibly in ways that challenge U.S. preferences. Still, most analysts contend that Modi and the BJP have been and will continue to be more open to aligning with U.S. regional strategy and more energetic in pursuing U.S.-favored economic reforms than would have been any alternative Indian leadership.

Summary: The BJP is a Hindu nationalist party, born in 1980 of a larger social movement, and Narendra Modi is a self-avowed Hindu nationalist (India is roughly 79% Hindu and 14% Muslim). The 2019 Modi-BJP campaign was widely criticized for divisiveness, and nationalist fervor following a February India-Pakistan crisis may have benefitted the BJP at the polls. India's minority communities and the country's civil society are widely reported to be under increasing threats emanating from Hindu majoritarian policies and sentiment. These threats can take violent and repressive forms, at times with the involvement of Indian officials or political figures, as reported by the U.S. State Department and independent human rights watchdogs, and as criticized by some Members of Congress.

Summary: This report reviews the recent Indian election process and results, the country's national political stage, and possible implications for U.S. interests in the areas of bilateral economic and trade relations, defense and security ties, India's other foreign relations, and human rights concerns.

India is a federal parliamentary republic and the world's most populous democracy, with more than 1.3 billion citizens. In the spring of 2019 the country held elections to seat its 17 th Lok Sabha (House of the People), the 545-seat lower chamber of parliament and locus of Indian political power. Results were announced on May 23, with the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, or Indian Peoples Party) winning a sweeping and repeat victory under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Having in 2014 become the first party to attain a parliamentary majority (52%) in 30 years, the BJP was able to expand that majority to 56% in 2019, becoming the first party to win consecutive majorities since 1971. The dynastic Indian National Congress (hereinafter, Congress Party)âwhich had dominated the country's politics from 1947 to 1977 and led a national coalition government from 2004 to 2014âagain failed to win the 10% minimum of seats required to officially lead the Lok Sabha opposition. Powerful regional and caste-based parties likewise posed no meaningful obstacles to the latest "BJP wave."

The Administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to expand upon a "strategic partnership" with India formally launched in 2005. Progress is ongoing, most notably in the area of defense and security cooperation. The U.S. Congress has been supportive of efforts to expand and deepen the bilateral partnership, formally designating India as a "Major Defense Partner" of the United States in 2016. Areas of engagement are broad and include an array of economic and security initiatives. Recent bilateral frictions have arisen over trade practices, religious freedom, and India's relations with Russia and Iran.

A State Department release congratulated Prime Minister Modi and his ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition for their "decisive victory," and it applauded the Indian people for turning out in historic numbers and the Indian government for "exceptional execution of this massive undertaking." It went on to declare that

The United States and India enjoy a strong strategic partnership that stands on a foundation of shared values, extensive people-to-people ties, and a commitment to a secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. We look forward to working with the newly elected government on a range of important issuesâ¦. We are confident that the strong and upward trajectory of our partnership will continue.

The Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee also issued a laudatory statement and, in June, several Members of Congress penned an open letter to President Trump to "highlight the continuing strategic importance of the U.S.-India relationship." Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with Modi and other top Indian officials in New Delhi in June to express enthusiasm about America's "natural strategic partner." President Trump has yet to visit India, and high-level engagement occurs under the rubric of a "2+2 Ministerial Dialogue" inaugurated in September 2018. Nevertheless, many independent observers express concern about emergent frictions and indications that the partnership is becoming dissonant. A recent substantive overview of the relationship concluded that it "would benefit from some realism about its limitations."

Officials in governments across the Indo-Pacific region expect the election results to bring general continuity in Indian policies. Given the instability and uncertainty that can accompany coalition governance, many likely regarded Prime Minister Modi's convincing reelection with some relief. Modi's internationalist orientation can be seen in his energetic pursuit of diplomacy with numerous major powers and regional governments. This includes though continued development of the U.S.-India strategic partnership, which is widely seen to be rooted in an array of mutually-held values and increasingly convergent visions for global order, lately conceived by Washington as a "shared vision for a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region."

On the economic front, Modi's reputation as a reformer and liberalizer has met with mixed reviews. Five years in office realized no major land or labor reforms or meaningful efforts to address bad bank debt that were widely anticipated. The BJP leader's assumed electoral vulnerabilitiesârelatively lackluster economic expansion (averaging below 7% annually), joblessness, rising prices, and a widely panned 2016 "demonetization" initiativeâdid not end up degrading his impressive political support. Most market-oriented analysts are hopeful, but not entirely confident, that a "Modi 2.0" government will redouble efforts to implement the kinds of economic reforms sought by the U.S. and other governments and business interests.

India possesses a robust and competitive multiparty democratic system. Yet its politics also are described as "beset by corruption" by Freedom House, a think tank that ranks world countries on levels of political and civil liberties. In 2017, India had fallen 10 places on the Economic Intelligence Unit Democracy Index to 42 nd in the world, due in part to "a rise of vigilantism and violence against minority communities, particularly Muslims, as well as other dissenting voices." For 2018, India was ranked 41 st worldwide, but its overall score was unchanged, and it maintained its designation as a "flawed democracy" (as did the United States).

The scale of India's national election presents daunting logistical challenges, and voting was completed in seven phases. As with each iteration, the event was history's largest democratic exercise: About 880 million peopleâone-ninth of the world's populationâwere eligible to cast ballots in the country's 29 states and 7 Union Territories, including some 84 million first-time voters. More than 600 million Indians participated, for a turnout rate of 67.4%. More than 8,400 candidates and a record 669 parties vied for the Lok Sabha's 543 elected seats; 36 parties won at least one seat, as did 4 independent candidates.

In addition to being history's largest democratic undertaking, India's 2019 national election was also history's most expensive: participating parties and candidates spent an estimated $8.7 billion on the campaign, more than double the 2014 spending. The BJP reportedly received nearly three-quarters of all political donations. Such massive outlays raise concerns among many about fairness: there is little transparency in India's campaign finance system, the Modi government had lifted caps on corporate donations, and the Election Commission's oversight is criticized for ineffectiveness.

In the lead-up to the 2019 voting, analysts debated whether the BJP's 2014 sweep was an anomaly in a decades-long era of coalition politics in New Delhi, or marked the beginning of a new period of single-party domination as was seen under the Congress Party prior to 1989. The BJP's unexpected and even stronger showing in 2019 suggests that India's national political stage has undergone qualitative change back toward a hegemonic national party.

The BJP won by securing 303 seats with more than 37% of the aggregate vote, significantly exceeding the 272 seats required for majority status, and increasing the party's seat total from 282 in the previous Lok Sabha. Their closest competitors, the Congress Party, took 52 seats with 19.5% of the national vote, a net gain of 8 seats (see Table 1 ). According to Election Commission of India data, the BJP won a majority of votes cast in 10 states, as well as in the Delhi National Capital Territory. It also took 49.6% of the votes cast in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India's most populous state. No other party was able to garner a majority of votes in any single state. While the BJP's core support in India's western and north-central "Hindi belt" states remained strong, and the party succeeded in expanding its appeal in the country's east, it was shut out completely in seven states, including the major southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where regional parties prevailed. In a sign of the Congress Party's historic collapse nationally, the party failed to win a single seat in 14 states, and nearly half of the seats the party did win (23) came from India's two southernmost states, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (see Figure 1 , "Map of Indian States").

The newly seated Lok Sabha is, on average, younger, wealthier, and better educated than its predecessor, and the number of female members has increased to 15% (see Text Box ). Upper-caste Hindus and political families continue to enjoy disproportionately high representation, and India's large and relatively marginalized Muslim minority community of about 190 million (about 14% of the total) suffers from a declining voice in Parliament: Muslim representation in the Lok Sabha peaked at 10% in 1980 and lingered at about 6% until dropping to 4% in 2014. A net gain of three Muslim members in 2019 only slightly raised that percentage. India's parliamentarians are also notable for the numbers who face formal criminal allegations.

The "Modi 2.0" cabinet includes some significant changes to the leadership of key Indian ministries. For the first time ever, a career diplomat, Subramanyam Jaishankar, is now External Affairs Minister, replacing BJP stalwart Sushma Swaraj. Jaishankar, until recently Foreign Secretary, is a former ambassador to both the United States and China, and is widely known in Washington as proponent and facilitator of closer U.S.-India ties. Another key new figure in the Modi cabinet is Home Minister Amit Shah, who succeeds senior BJP official Rajnath Singh, himself now holding the Defense Ministry portfolio. Also under new leadership is the Finance Ministry, where former Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has become India's first female finance minister. Additionally, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a former intelligence chief in office since 2014 and considered a hardliner on Pakistan, was elevated to cabinet rank in 2019.

India's Congress Party had hoped in 2019 to reverse its general decline after 2014. It had led a United Progressive Alliance coalition government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh from 2004 to 2014. Party president Rahul Gandhiâson of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and grandson of Indira Gandhiâhad entered politics with apparent reluctance, winning the "family seat" in Amethi, UP, in 2004. Ten years later, Rahul oversaw Congress's worst electoral performance in history when the party took only 44 Lok Sabha seats, down from 206 previously.

Gandhi's lackluster reputation took a new shine after the party's unexpectedly strong showing in the 2017 Gujarat state elections, and December 2018 Congress victories in three north-central states were a huge morale boost for the party, heartening potential Congress allies. During the 2019 campaign, Gandhi impressed many observers with what were described as creative policy proposals and a newly assured public speaking style. Still, going into the 2019 campaign, Congress had no significant presence in any of India's six most populous states and had shown an inability to recover in states where it had faltered. The party continued to struggle to both consolidate old alliances and to establish new ones. As put by one official from a BJP-allied regional party, the opposition had "neither a program, nor a leader, nor a narrative." Gandhi suffered an embarrassing upset loss in his family's Amethi district, and the party's 2019 defeat has led to new leadership crises.

The BJP and Congress are India's only truly national partiesâthey together won roughly half of all votes cast in 2009 and 2014, and their combined share rose to 57% in 2019 (attributable to a 6-point boost for the BJP). The influence of regional and caste-based partiesâalthough blunted by the BJP's outright majority victoriesâremains a crucial variable in Indian politics. Such parties now hold about one-third of Lok Sabha seats, but many of the most influential met with significant reversals in 2019.

By early 2019, Narendra Modi had become the primary, if not sole target of his many electoral opponents, but no single challenger emerged. Still, the opposition's zeal to dislodge the incumbents had them ready to make unusual alliances, especially in Uttar Pradesh, where the effort failed conclusively. Other powerful regional parties experienced setbacks, most notably West Bengal's Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, which barely survived a surprise BJP surge in the key eastern state, winning 22 of 42 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP's 18 (up from 2 in 2014). Only in Odisha was a major regional partyâin this case the Biju Janata Dal of popular Chief Minister Naveen Patnaikâable to withstand the BJP onslaught.

Because the BJP campaign was run largely on Narendra Modi's personal popularity rather than an explicit policy platform, it is unclear how Modi will use his mandate going forward. Since 2014, the Modi government arguably has realized some foreign policy successes compatible with U.S. interests: sustaining the partnership with the United States, solidifying the partnership with Japan, strengthening ties with Israel while making new outreach to key Persian Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and articulating a vision for the Indo-Pacific region that tracks well with that of the United States. Modi has successfully projected India as the world's next big economic opportunity after China, but critics argue that he has mostly squandered an opportunity to move India into great power status, with a lack of strategic vision harming India's position vis-Ã -vis major powers and smaller neighbors, alike. Given India's myriad domestic problems, and still-limited capacity to project power, some American observers are skeptical about its near-term potential to play the role sought for it by the U.S. Congress and successive Administrations.

The Modi/BJP victory has empowered the Indian leader domestically and this may provide Modi and India new opportunities on the global stage. Given Modi's reputation for favoring a "muscular" foreign policy, he may now be more willing to resist Chinese assertiveness and move closer to the United States. Yet troubles with the United States also could loom: Many Indian strategic thinkers say their country's national interests are well served by engaging not just with the United States but also with Russia and Iran, which could limit to New Delhi's willingness to abide what some Indian observers describe as "America's short-term impulses." While New Delhi generally welcomes the U.S. "free and open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) strategy, Indian leaders continue to demur from confronting China. The United States and India also seek to cooperate on energy, climate change, and space issues, and have sometimes clashing views on immigration.

Bilateral Trade and Economic Relations26

Trade and economic ties, an important and growing part of bilateral relations, have faced recent challenges. Prime Minister Modi's strong electoral mandate suggests India's mixed economic performance did not hurt his standing with the public, and the results may embolden the BJP to press ahead with its reform agenda with greater vigor (see Text Box , below). The Trump Administration takes issue with the U.S. trade deficit with India and "unfair" trade practices that restrict U.S. exports to and investment in India. Some U.S. policymakers and businesses have been disappointed that, during Modi's first term, India did not move forward with market-opening reforms as they had hoped, and instead increased tariffs and trade restrictions. For example, recent tariff hikes by New Delhi on cell phones and other products have elevated long-standing U.S. concerns about India's tariff regime, and President Trump has called India the "tariff king." Other U.S. concerns include inadequate intellectual property protection and enforcement, and restrictive new rules on e-commerce and localization of certain financial data flowsâwhich affect major U.S. companies, such as Amazon, Walmart-owned Flipkart, Visa, and MasterCard. The United States and India also often have opposing stances on multilateral trade issues in the World Trade Organization.

The outlook for bilateral trade relations is unclear. Both sides have taken decisive actions on simmering issues. President Trump terminated India's eligibility for the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), effective on June 5, 2019, after determining that "India has not assured the United States that India will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets." This decision followed a U.S. investigation into India's market access practices and petitions by U.S. dairy and medical technology industries. In 2018, India was the largest beneficiary of GSP, with over one-tenth ($6.3 billion) of U.S. goods imports from India entering duty-free under the program. India, which called the eligibility termination "unfortunate," announced soon after that it would impose higher retaliatory tariffs on 28 U.S. products, including almonds, apples, and walnuts, in response to U.S. Section 232 (national-security-based) steel and aluminum tariffs. During 2018, India repeatedly delayed applying retaliatory tariffs, in hopes of negotiating a resolution of bilateral trade issues. In late June, President Trump called India's 2019 imposition of retaliatory tariffs "unacceptable" and said they "must be withdrawn."

At the June 2019 G-20 Summit, the two sides appeared to strike a more conciliatory tone. President Trump said a "very big" trade deal would be coming with India. According to India's foreign secretary, the "trade ministers of both countries would meet at an early date and would try to sort out these issues." Yet lack of progress in recent months reportedly is prompting the Administration to consider launching a Section 301 investigation of India's trade practicesâthis would make India the focus of the next major, in-depth investigation of unfair trade practices after China. On one hand, Section 301 could be a new way to address long-standing issues of U.S. concern with respect to India. On the other hand, it could raise the risk of protracted bilateral trade tensions and tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs across many economic sectors.

Continuity in India's leadership may lead to continued rapid development of U.S.-India security cooperation, with U.S. leaders hoping that increased Indian capabilities will provide greater net security regionally and worldwide (in spite of some U.S. concerns about New Delhi's ties with Moscow). President Obama and Congress recognized India as a "major defense partner" (MDP) in 2016, a unique designation allowing India to receive license-free access to dual-use American technologies. The MDP designation was created in large part to carry over a presumption of license approvals into the new U.S. administration. It was linked to India's joining the four major multilateral export control regimes to become eligible to receive licensing for the most advanced defense systems the United States exports. In mid-2018, India received Strategic Trade Authorization Tier-1 status, putting it on par with NATO allies, and the two countries concluded a long-sought Communications, Compatibility, and Security Agreement (COMCASA), a military-to-military "enabling agreement." The two governments also seek expanded collaboration via the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative, launched in 2012, which aims to facilitate greater defense trade and technology sharing. India participates in formalized "quadrilateral consultations" with the United States, Japan, and Australia while downplaying prospects that the "Quad" may become a security-related architecture.

Defense trade is a leading facet of the bilateral partnership. India is now a major purchaser in the global arms market and a lucrative potential customer for U.S. companies. The two nations have signed defense contracts worth about $15 billion since 2008, up from $500 million in all previous years combined. Washington seeks to identify sales that can proceed under the technology-sharing and co-production model sought by New Delhi while also urging reform in India's defense offsets policy. Since 2002, the United States and India have held a series of increasingly complex combined bilateral exercises involving all military servicesâIndia now conducts more exercises and personnel exchanges with the United States than with any other country. A first-ever tri-service exercise is set for later in 2019. Bilateral intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation has accelerated over the past decade. In addition to intelligence sharing, homeland security cooperation has included growing engagement between respective law enforcement agencies, especially in the areas of mutual legal assistance and extradition, and on cyberterrorism and cybersecurity. Terrorist groups operating from Pakistani territory are of special interest.

India broadly endorses the FOIP strategy pursued by Washington, and it benefits from the higher visibility this strategy provides for India's global role and for its immediate region. Yet India has not fully relinquished the "nonalignment" posture it maintained for most of the Cold War (more recently pursuing "strategic autonomy" or a "pragmatic and outcome-oriented foreign policy" ). Thus, Modi has articulated a vision of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, and India remains wary of joining any nascent or potential security architectures that could antagonize Beijing.

India-China . Modi's win likely means a continuation of New Delhi's multilateralist/multipolar approach to international politics in Asia, as well as efforts to resist Chinese "assertiveness" in South Asia. India's relations with China have been fraught for decades, with signs of increasing enmity in recent years. Areas of contention include major border and territorial disputes, China's role as Pakistan's primary international benefactor, the presence in India of the Dalai Lama and a self-described Tibetan "government," and China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean region, which many Indians view as an encroachment in their neighborhood. New Delhi is ever watchful for signs that Beijing seeks to "contain" Indian influence both regionally and globally. China's BRIâwith "flagship" projects in Pakistanâis taken by many in India (and elsewhere) as an expression of Beijing's hegemonic intentions.

India-Pakistan . The United States has long sought to assist in reducing India-Pakistan conflict and its impact on developments in Afghanistan. A surge of Indian nationalism grew out of a February 2019 international crisis involving Pakistan. Coming just weeks before voting began in India, the confrontation was widely seen to have boosted Modi's electoral prospects. In contrast to his 2014 inauguration, when Pakistan's then-prime minister was an invited guest, Modi in 2019 omitted Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan from swearing-in festivities. It is unclear if the Indian leader will seek to use his political capital to launch a new peace initiative with Islamabad or will continue pursuing punitive policies that aim to isolate Pakistan internationally. Some analysts contend that Modi now has sufficient standing to change tack. Others, however, suggest that his reelection "will be projected as a vindication of his belligerent policy toward Pakistan."

India-Russia . India maintained close ties with Russia throughout much of the Cold War and continues to rely on Moscow for the bulk of its defense imports. With the 2017 enactment of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act ( CAATSA, P.L. 115-44 ) in U.S. law , India's continued major arms purchases from Russiaâmost prominently a current multi-billion-dollar deal to purchase the Russian-made S-400 air defense systemâcould trigger U.S. sanctions. Although Congress subsequently provided for a national security waiver of these sanctions, the Administration has consistently counseled India to cancel the purchase and consider U.S.-supplied alternatives , while New Delhi insists that it will go forward in pursuit of its own national interest , a position possibly hardened with the BJP mandate .

India-Iran . India has historically friendly relations with Iran, a country that lately has supplied about 30% of India's energy imports. It also opposes any potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran and supports the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Historically averse to unilateral (non-U.N.) sanctions, New Delhi until recently enjoyed exemption from U.S. efforts targeting Iran's energy sector. In April 2019, the Trump Administration ended such exemptions, and New Delhi has issued conflicting statements about its cessation of Iranian oil purchases while informing Washington that such cessation "comes at a cost." Continued tensions in the Persian Gulf and/or a longer-term boycott of Iranian oil could be disruptive to the Indian economy; Modi's strong mandate could place limits on his willingness to abide such disruption.

Other Notable Relations . The Trump Administration's South Asia strategy has included calls for greater Indian involvement in Afghanistan, even as such engagement vexes Pakistan (New Delhi has committed about $3 billion to Afghan reconstruction to date). Islamabad is wary of the Indian presence in Afghanistan and accuses New Delhi of supporting anti-Pakistan groups there, a dynamic that can in turn affect U.S. efforts to sustain Pakistan's help in facilitating Afghanistan reconciliation. Many analysts expect India-Afghanistan ties to grow stronger with Modi's reelection, and New Delhi appears wary of any precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, India's deepening "strategic partnership" with Japan is a major aspect of New Delhi's broader "Act East" policy and a key axis in the greater FOIP strategies broadly pursued by all three governments participating in a newly established U.S.-Japan-India Trilateral Dialogue. Prime Minister Modi appears to have a convivial personal relationship with his Japanese counterpart and bilateral ties are seen as likely to strengthen going forward.

While Prime Minister Modi and his party have long sought to emphasize development and good governance, the 2019 election cycle revolved around nationalism and other emotive issues, with many observers arguing that Hindu majoritarianism is a threat both to India's religious minorities and to the country's syncretic traditions. According to the U.S. State Department and independent watchdogs, India is the site of numerous human rights violations, many of them serious and some perpetrated, or at least tolerated, by state actors. Many observers are concerned about the impact of growing religious bigotry and Hindu nationalism on human rights. The BJP is an openly Hindu nationalist party and Prime Minister Modi is a self-avowed Hindu nationalist. In 2005, Modi was denied a U.S. visa over concerns about his role in government during lethal anti-Muslim violence in 2002. Modi hit conciliatory notes in a national address three days after the 2019 election results were announced, vowing to seek the trust of minority groups and to work for the good of all Indians.

Human rights nongovernmental organizations and social service groups have seen their Indian operations constrained in recent years, and observers are watching closely for signs that the Modi/BJP mandate will lead to renewed efforts toward Hindu nationalist goals. Some of theseâincluding laws preventing religious conversions and cow slaughterâcontinue to cause sparks in U.S.-India relations, including explicit BJP criticism of the U.S. government for alleged "bias" against Modi. Future moves by the Modi government on other "Hindutva" policies could increase national divisions and lead to further international opprobrium.