Evidence for timing market in the short run?
"The time horizon for your IRA is years or decades, therefore there is little evidence that there is a benefit to waiting for the ""perfect time"" to invest.  Unless you plan on making only one or 2 years of investments now and then waiting till retirement; the other deposits you will make over the decades will have a greater influence on returns.  If you are going to search for the perfect time to invest in your index fund, pick a deadline. ""I will take the first sign better than X but will not wait beyond Y""."