IndieWire has the race down to Lee and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), explaining, “voters might give the multi-tasking Cuarón wins for Best Picture and Cinematography and let Lee take his historic win as the first black filmmaker to win Best Director, figuring that Cuarón already took home a win for Gravity.” Rolling Stone predicts a Cuarón win is a sure thing , and that the Academy will only go so far as to give Lee the nom. Meanwhile, Entertainment Weekly also predicts Cuarón , but believes Lee has a shot, too. Basically, Lee and Cuarón are the only ones even in this conversation, so the way things shake out could end up having to do with voters wanting to give Lee an overdue win and/or an awareness that Cuarón is likely to win in other categories. As for Best Picture, Roma is also favored.