Frequentist Analysis of the Parameter Space of Minimal Supergravity
  We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of minimal supergravity
(mSUGRA), in which, as well as the gaugino and scalar soft
supersymmetry-breaking parameters being universal, there is a specific relation
between the trilinear, bilinear and scalar supersymmetry-breaking parameters,
A_0 = B_0 + m_0, and the gravitino mass is fixed by m_{3/2} = m_0. We also
consider a more general model, in which the gravitino mass constraint is
relaxed (the VCMSSM). We combine in the global likelihood function the
experimental constraints from low-energy electroweak precision data, the
anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, the lightest Higgs boson mass M_h, B
physics and the astrophysical cold dark matter density, assuming that the
lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) is a neutralino. In the VCMSSM, we find
a preference for values of m_{1/2} and m_0 similar to those found previously in
frequentist analyses of the constrained MSSM (CMSSM) and a model with common
non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). On the other hand, in mSUGRA we find two
preferred regions: one with larger values of both m_{1/2} and m_0 than in the
VCMSSM, and one with large m_0 but small m_{1/2}. We compare the probabilities
of the frequentist fits in mSUGRA, the VCMSSM, the CMSSM and the NUHM1: the
probability that mSUGRA is consistent with the present data is significantly
less than in the other models. We also discuss the mSUGRA and VCMSSM
predictions for sparticle masses and other observables, identifying potential
signatures at the LHC and elsewhere.
