Numerical Testing of The Rare Earth Hypothesis using Monte Carlo
  Realisation Techniques
  The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has thus far failed to
provide a convincing detection of intelligent life. In the wake of this null
signal, many "contact pessimistic" hypotheses have been formulated, the most
famous of which is the Rare Earth Hypothesis. It postulates that although
terrestrial planets may be common, the exact environmental conditions that
Earth enjoys are rare, perhaps unique. As a result, simple microbial life may
be common, but complex metazoans (and hence intelligence) will be rare. This
paper uses Monte Carlo Realisation Techniques to investigate the Rare Earth
Hypothesis, in particular the environmental criteria considered imperative to
the existence of intelligence on Earth.
  By comparing with a less restrictive, more optimistic hypothesis, the data
indicates that if the Rare Earth hypothesis is correct, intelligent
civilisation will indeed be relatively rare. Studying the separations of pairs
of civilisations shows that most intelligent civilisation pairs (ICPs) are
unconnected: that is, they will not be able to exchange signals at lightspeed
in the limited time that both are extant. However, the few ICPs that are
connected are strongly connected, being able to participate in numerous
exchanges of signals. This may provide encouragement for SETI researchers:
although the Rare Earth Hypothesis is in general a contact-pessimistic
hypothesis, it may be a "soft" or "exclusive" hypothesis, i.e. it may contain
facets that are latently contact-optimistic.
