The detection rate of early UV emission from supernovae: A dedicated
  GALEX/PTF survey and calibrated theoretical estimates
  The radius and surface composition of an exploding massive star,as well as
the explosion energy per unit mass, can be measured using early UV observations
of core collapse supernovae (SNe). We present the first results from a
simultaneous GALEX/PTF search for early UV emission from SNe. Six Type II SNe
and one Type II superluminous SN (SLSN-II) are clearly detected in the GALEX
NUV data. We compare our detection rate with theoretical estimates based on
early, shock-cooling UV light curves calculated from models that fit existing
Swift and GALEX observations well, combined with volumetric SN rates. We find
that our observations are in good agreement with calculated rates assuming that
red supergiants (RSGs) explode with fiducial radii of 500 solar, explosion
energies of 10^51 erg, and ejecta masses of 10 solar masses. Exploding blue
supergiants and Wolf-Rayet stars are poorly constrained. We describe how such
observations can be used to derive the progenitor radius, surface composition
and explosion energy per unit mass of such SN events, and we demonstrate why UV
observations are critical for such measurements. We use the fiducial RSG
parameters to estimate the detection rate of SNe during the shock-cooling phase
(<1d after explosion) for several ground-based surveys (PTF, ZTF, and LSST). We
show that the proposed wide-field UV explorer ULTRASAT mission, is expected to
find >100 SNe per year (~0.5 SN per deg^2), independent of host galaxy
extinction, down to an NUV detection limit of 21.5 mag AB. Our pilot GALEX/PTF
project thus convincingly demonstrates that a dedicated, systematic SN survey
at the NUV band is a compelling method to study how massive stars end their
life.
