One Bubble to Rule Them All
  We apply the principles of quantum mechanics and quantum cosmology to predict
probabilities for our local observations of a universe undergoing false vacuum
eternal inflation. At a sufficiently fine-grained level, histories of the
universe describe a mosaic of bubble universes separated by inflationary
regions. We show that predictions for local observations can be obtained
directly from sets of much coarser grained histories which only follow a single
bubble. These coarse-grained histories contain neither information about our
unobservable location nor about the unobservable large-scale structure outside
our own bubble. Applied to a landscape of false vacua in the no-boundary state
we predict our local universe emerged from the dominant decay channel of the
lowest energy false vacuum. We compare and contrast this framework for
prediction based on quantum cosmology with traditional approaches to the
measure problem in cosmology.
