Quantifying scatter in galaxy formation at the lowest masses
  We predict the stellar mass -- halo mass (SMHM) relationship for dwarf
galaxies, using simulated galaxies with peak halo masses of M$_{\rm peak} =
10^{11}$ M$_{\odot}$ down into the ultra-faint dwarf range to M$_{\rm peak} =$
10$^7$ M$_{\odot}$. Our simulated dwarfs have stellar masses of M$_{\rm star} =
$ 790 M$_{\odot}$ to $8.2 \times 10^8$ M$_{\odot}$, with corresponding $V$-band
magnitudes from $-2$ to $-18.5$. For M$_{\rm peak} > 10^{10}$ M$_{\odot}$, the
simulated SMHM relationship agrees with literature determinations, including
exhibiting a small scatter of 0.3 dex. However, the scatter in the SMHM
relation increases for lower-mass halos. We first present results for
well-resolved halos that contain a simulated stellar population, but recognize
that whether a halo hosts a galaxy is inherently mass resolution dependent. We
thus adopt a probabilistic model to populate "dark" halos below our resolution
limit to predict an "intrinsic" slope and scatter for the SMHM relation. We fit
linearly growing log-normal scatter in stellar mass, which grows to more than 1
dex at M$_{\rm peak}$ $=$ 10$^8$ M$_{\odot}$. At the faintest end of the SMHM
relation probed by our simulations, a galaxy cannot be assigned a unique halo
mass based solely on its luminosity. Instead, we provide a formula to
stochastically populate low-mass halos following our results. Finally, we show
that our growing log-normal scatter steepens the faint-end slope of the
predicted stellar mass function.
