Too Many, Too Few, or Just Right? The Predicted Number and Distribution
  of Milky Way Dwarf Galaxies
  We predict the spatial distribution and number of Milky Way dwarf galaxies to
be discovered in the DES and LSST surveys, by completeness correcting the
observed SDSS dwarf population. We apply most massive in the past, earliest
forming, and earliest infall toy models to a set of dark matter-only simulated
Milky Way/M31 halo pairs from Exploring the Local Volume In Simulations
(ELVIS). The observed spatial distribution of Milky Way dwarfs in the LSST-era
will discriminate between the earliest infall and other simplified models for
how dwarf galaxies populate dark matter subhalos. Inclusive of all toy models
and simulations, at 90% confidence we predict a total of 37-114 L $\gtrsim
10^3$L$_{\odot}$ dwarfs and 131-782 L $\lesssim 10^3$L$_{\odot}$ dwarfs within
300 kpc. These numbers of L $\gtrsim 10^3$L$_{\odot}$ dwarfs are dramatically
lower than previous predictions, owing primarily to our use of updated
detection limits and the decreasing number of SDSS dwarfs discovered per sky
area. For an effective $r_{\rm limit}$ of 25.8 mag, we predict: 3-13 L $\gtrsim
10^3$L$_{\odot}$ and 9-99 L $\lesssim 10^3$L$_{\odot}$ dwarfs for DES, and
18-53 L $\gtrsim 10^3$L$_{\odot}$ and 53-307 L $\lesssim 10^3$L$_{\odot}$
dwarfs for LSST. These enormous predicted ranges ensure a coming decade of
near-field excitement with these next generation surveys.
