A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches
  Bayesian statistical methods offer a simple and consistent framework for
incorporating uncertainties into a multi-parameter inference problem. In this
work we apply these methods to a selection of current direct dark matter
searches. We consider the simplest scenario of spin-independent elastic WIMP
scattering, and infer the WIMP mass and cross-section from the experimental
data with the essential systematic uncertainties folded into the analysis. We
find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have
been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently
constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to
previous claims. In the same vein, we also investigate the impact of
astrophysical uncertainties on the preferred WIMP parameters. We find that
within the class of smooth and isotropic WIMP velocity distributions, it is
difficult to reconcile the DAMA and the CoGeNT preferred regions by tweaking
the astrophysics parameters alone. If we demand compatibility between these
experiments, then the inference process naturally concludes that a high value
for the sodium quenching factor for DAMA is preferred.
