Bayesian Model Selection with Future 21cm Observations of The Epoch of
  Reionisation
  We apply Bayesian statistics to perform model selection on different
reionisation scenarios via the Multinest algorithm. Initially, we recover the
results shown by 21CMMC for the parameter estimation of 21cmFAST models. We
proceed to test several toy models of the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) defined
in contrasting morphology and scale. We find that LOFAR observations are
unlikely to allow model selection even with long integration times. HERA would
require 61 dipoles to perform the same analysis in 1080 hours, and becomes
comparable to the SKA with 217 dipoles. We find the SKA requires only 324 hours
of observation to conclusively distinguish between our models. Once model
selection is achievable, an analysis of observational priors is performed
finding that neutral fraction checks at specific redshifts add little to no
inference. We show the difficulties in model selection at the level of
distinguishing fiducial parameters within a model or distinguishing galaxies
with a constant versus power law mass-to-light ratio. Finally, we explore the
use of the Savage-Dickey density ratio to show the redundancy of the parameter
Rmfp within 21cmFAST.
