Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST - I. UV luminosity functions at z = 4 -
  10
  In anticipation of the upcoming deployment of the James Webb Space Telescope
(JWST), we present high-redshift predictions by the well-established Santa Cruz
semi-analytic model. We update the models by re-calibrating them after adopting
cosmological parameters consistent with recent constraints from Planck. We
provide predictions for rest-frame UV luminosity functions for galaxy
populations over a wide range of $M_\text{UV}$ from $\sim-6$ to $\sim-24$
between $z = 4 - 10$. In addition, we present the corresponding predictions for
observed-frame galaxy number counts in different redshift bins in the full set
of NIRCam filters. We provide predictions of the quantitative effect on these
observables of varying the physical recipes implemented in the models, such as
the molecular gas depletion time (star formation efficiency) scalings or the
scalings of outflow rates driven by stars and supernovae with galaxy circular
velocity. Based on these results, we discuss what may be learned about the
physical processes that shape galaxy formation from JWST observations of galaxy
number densities at different intrinsic luminosities. All data tables for the
results presented in this work are available at
https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.
