Seasonal dispersal of pests: one surge or two?
ABSTRACT Many agricultural pest species occur in seasonal metapopulations with a period of asexual reproduction. We use evolutionary theory to predict timing of dispersal for such species, and identify four sequential phases: no dispersal, dispersal from initially occupied patches, dispersal from later colonized patches, and no dispersal. The third type of phase occurs only when reproductive rates are relatively high; we speculate that this could explain why among aphids there can be either one or two waves of dispersal during a season, depending on the species. Our model also explains other features of aphid biology, including a summer crash in colony size, and a decline in the number of colonies towards the end of each reproductive season. The presence of an additional surge of dispersal becomes more likely as season length increases, and does not require further evolution. This could have profound implications for pest management during future climatic warming.
- [show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California's US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate scenarios (2041-2060 and 2080-2099; each for three General Circulation Models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios), 100 years of hourly temperature were generated for 205 locations. Degree-day models were used to project mean generation numbers for codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella Walker), two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch), and European red mite (Panonychus ulmi Koch). In the Central Valley, the number of codling moth generations predicted for degree days accumulated between April 1 and October 1 rose from 2-4 in 1950 to 3-5 among all future scenarios. Generation numbers increased from 10-18 to 14-24 for two-spotted spider mite, from 9-14 to 14-20 for European red mite, and from 2-4 to up to 5 for navel orangeworm. Overall pest pressure can thus be expected to increase substantially. Our study did not include the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer, factors that are likely to exacerbate future pest pressure. On the other hand, initiation of diapause may prevent an extension of the season length for arthropods, and higher incidence of heat death in summer may constrain pest population sizes. More information on the impact of climate change on complex agroecological food webs and on the response of pests to high temperatures is needed for improving the reliability of projections. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.Global Change Biology 01/2010; 17(1):228-238. · 6.91 Impact Factor
- [show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Song and Xiang (2006) developed an impulsive differential equations model for a two-prey one-predator model with stage structure for the predator. They demonstrate the conditions on the impulsive period for which a globally asymptotically stable pest-eradication periodic solution exists, as well as conditions on the impulsive period for which the prey species is permanently maintained under an economically acceptable threshold. We extend their model by including stage structure for both predator and prey as well as by adding stochastic elements in the birth rate of the prey. As in Song and Xiang (2006), we find the conditions under which a globally asymptotically stable pest eradication periodic solution exists. In addition, we numerically show the relationship between the stochastically varying birth rate of the prey and the necessary efficacy of the pesticide for which the probability of eradication of the prey species is above 90%. This is significant because the model recognizes varying environmental and climatic conditions which affect the resources needed for pest eradication.Frontiers in Neuroscience 01/2013; 7:141.