he Catholic and middle-class voters will likely migrate towards the more moderate Democratic Party.
Salvini’s greatest strength is also his ultimate weakness: he is not Berlusconi. He is not charming. He doesn’t have a winning smile. He is not a great salesman. The media don’t love him as much as they loved Berlusconi.
And Salvini’s policies, especially on immigration, are not unlike Trump’s: they are truly borderline, if not wholly, racist. Italy’s permanence in the EU would certainly be at risk with someone like Salvini at the helm.
Ironically, as I pointed out in my previous article, the ideal candidate for the centre-right would be another Matteo, as in Matteo Renzi. Unfortunately for Berlusconi and his coalition, Renzi has chosen the opposite side, the Democratic Party.
But as Renzi might soon resign from his party as well, perhaps Berlusconi will be wise to approach him. It might well be in the realm of fantasy politics, but Renzi might be willing to listen and become the leader of a strong and wider centre. After all, for over two years he has governed the country, also thanks to Berlusconi and with some of the entrepreneur’s former allies.
The unlikely prime minister
Before anything is decided, however, President Mattarella must consult with all forces in parliament. At the end of the consultations, the result might be an election, a known name as prime minister, or a true surprise.
The surprising name pulled from the hat might be that of Luigi di Maio (Laura Boldrini’s deputy in the lower house). Di Maio is the most popular representative of the Five Star Movement (after its founder, Beppe Grillo).
The choice of Di Maio might be quite tempting for all parties involved. It would finally give the chance to the movement to govern, to pass some important reforms and, most importantly for the other parties, to avoid the spectre of elections for the time being. The Five Star Movement, in fact, along with the right-wing Northern League, is among the loudest voices calling for new elections.
Though the choice of Di Maio is not that unlikely, the possibility that he (or for that matter, anyone else from the movement) actually becomes prime minister is rather thin. This would be a risky proposition to accept without a true majority. As things stand at the moment, Grillo would most likely reject the offer. He would consider the compromise with the establishment a strategic mistake, as he did in 2013 when he turned down the offer from Pierluigi Bersani, then Democratic Party secretary, who was in desperate need of an ally to govern.
If a temporary solution cannot be found and an election is called, under the current electoral law, the election might lead to political bloodshed. In a climate of widespread discontent with the country’s political establishment, the new law and its proportional mechanism that gives the winner an automatic majority in parliament, most of the parties in the current government coalition might be erased from the electoral map. Though that might provide some sweet schadenfreude to many disgruntled voters, it might eventually cost Italy dearly.
The ultimate winners of the coming electoral melee are likely to be untested populist forces with a strong anti-European sentiment and some more questionable political ideas. When something similar last happened, Italy ended up with two decades of Berlusconi. The ride was far from fun and the bruises are still there for everyone to see.