ng to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, today there are about 11 million foreign citizens in Russia, 80 percent of whom are citizens of the countries comprising the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Table 1). This reflects the main requirement for massive foreign labor in Russia, knowledge of the Russian language.
To reach the levels forecast in the latter two scenarios, provided that the CIS countries will continue to supply 80 percent of immigrants, the number of citizens of those countries living in Russia should increase by 2.5 and 3.2 times, respectively. That is hard to believe, since the potential of attracting additional migrants from the two major sources—Ukraine and Uzbekistan—seems to have been exhausted.
After the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the eastern Ukraine, political relations between Russia and Ukraine are seriously damaged. In the coming decades Ukraine itself will pass through similar demographic processes as Russia, and its potential as a supplier of labor will decline. In addition, with Ukraine increasingly integrating with Europe, Ukrainian labor will be more inclined to look to the countries of Eastern Europe as destinations for pursuing employment opportunities.
Table 1. CIS Citizens Living in Russia as % of the Population of the Country
Source: Federal Migration Service of Russia; www.worldometers.info
Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is itself entering a period of rapid demographic change, with reduced fertility and a sharp decline in population growth that will limit its capabilities for the export of labor. Moreover, if Uzbekistan continues to benefit from its natural resources and closer ties to China its own labor needs may compete with Russia’s. Gradually, the main marginal supplier of migrants in Russia will be Tajikistan, but its resources should not be exaggerated—today, every second Tajik male of working age lives in Russia, while the overall increase of the population of the country by 2050 will be about 7 million people. This means that Russia needs to seek migration from China, Vietnam and, possibly, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
Such a significant increase in the number of foreigners in Russia will inevitably lead to growing social pressure in the country, given the relatively nationalistic tone in official Russian rhetoric in recent years. According to Levada-center polls, more than 75 percent of Russians support the introduction of migration limits (up from less than 50 percent in 2002) while the number of those who believe migration may benefit Russia has declined from 44 percent to 16 percent .
Decline in labor force quality
The forecast also provides an estimate for labor-force growth (population of the working age), which is important for assessing the long-term economic prospects of the country. Here, the forecast looks even worse, because the share of Russia’s working age population is declining by about the same magnitude in all scenarios—from 60 percent to less than 50 percent. This decline takes place in two waves: an initial labor force decline by 8-12 percent (medium and low scenarios) between 2015 and 2020, and then by another 10-20 percent after 2030 (Chart 3).
Chart 3. Working Age Population of Russia: Three Scenarios
But, again, it is important not to forget about the migration effect. Rosstat does not provide such data in its forecast, but if we use the actual share of the working age population in the total number of migrants from CIS countries (90 percent) the result is predictable—in the more optimistic scenario the number of working age population is higher, but so too is Russia’s dependence on labor migrants.
Because of the growing share of migrants in the working age population in any scenario, the Russian economy will be faced with a rapid decline in the average quality of the labor force (measured by education and professional skills). Russia is unlikely to invest in education systems in neighbor countries while they themselves have no resources for such investment.
Pressure on the pension system
These demographic forecasts also provide