ob performance. One study of Rhode Island children shows that even small increases in their exposure to lead permanently reduce their test scores—an effect that is most pronounced for poor children. A study of Swedish children reached similar conclusions about children’s academic performance, cognitive ability, and job performance. It concludes:
[A] decrease in a child’s blood lead level from 10 to 5 micrograms per deciliter would imply an average increase in 9th grade GPA by 2.2 percentiles and an increase in the high school graduation rate by 2.3%. In terms of labor market outcomes the same decrease would imply an estimated increase in earnings (average for ages 20-32) by 5.5%.
Given the strong negative consequences of lead on children’s future economic outcomes, it is no surprise that cuts to lead abatement programs are the ultimate example of a penny wise, pound foolish budget policy: A dollar of lead abatement spending is estimated to return $17 to $221 in benefits to society as a result of improved health, less need for special education, reduced crime, and higher earnings.
Perhaps the most serious example of the anti-growth policies in the House budget is a $2.1 trillion cut to Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program over the next 10 years. This results from converting these programs to a smaller block grant that would fail to adequately support the health care needs of low-income Americans and from repealing the Medicaid expansion in the Affordable Care Act. Urban Institute researchers studied a similar proposal in 2012 and found that it would slash the number of people enrolled in Medicaid by 42 percent to 50 percent. The researchers concluded that, “Enrollment reductions would likely affect children, because they are a disproportionate share of Medicaid enrollment.”
Other research leaves no doubt that reducing the number of children on Medicaid would result in a sicker and less-educated workforce, because Medicaid makes children healthier and better educated. One study found that the 15 percentage point increase in Medicaid eligibility between 1984 and 1992 decreased child mortality by 5.1 percent. Another study found that these Medicaid expansions reduced the internal mortality rate—which accounts for deaths from diseases rather than from accidents or crime—for covered African American children by 13 percent to 20 percent. With regard to education, one group of researchers found that a 10 percentage point increase in average Medicaid eligibility for children reduces their high school dropout rate by 4 percent to 6 percent and raises their bachelor’s degree attainment by 4 percent to 6 percent. Another study found that each additional year of Medicaid eligibility increases the likelihood of college attendance by 0.4 percentage points.
One should expect that making children healthier and more educated—as these studies show that Medicaid has—will boost the future earnings of these children. Using tax data, a group of researchers found that an additional 10 years of childhood Medicaid eligibility raises a 28-year-old woman’s cumulative earnings by 5 percent. Similarly, another study showed that a 10 percentage point increase in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant women increased average future incomes for their children by 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent.
Access to Medicaid also makes children less reliant on safety net programs when they become adults, which offsets much of the government’s initial Medicaid costs. One study finds that the government receives 56 cents back from every dollar of childhood Medicaid spending, because the subsequent increase in earnings lead to more tax revenue and less safety net spending.
The House budget singles out the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP—formerly known as food stamps—for particularly severe cuts by converting the program to a smaller block grant. The vague cuts called for in the resolution would also be likely to reduce support for other nutrition programs—such as the School Breakfast Program, or SBP, and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Prog