f.
Unlike other studies, the scenarios modeled by Imbach, Locatelli and their colleagues took those interactions into consideration, resulting in more detailed forecasts of likely changes in vegetation in different climate change scenarios.
“We combined 136 different scenarios to determine the likelihood of changes in ecosystem characteristics,” Locatelli said.
For example, by calculating the likelihood of water runoff in this set of scenarios, instead of simply considering average changes, their analysis can help policymakers set priorities to target specific areas in Mesoamerica.
“There may be uncertainty about some aspects of climate change, but we know that in some places, such as the Yucatan [in southeastern Mexico], a decrease in water availability is almost certain with the scenarios we considered,” Locatelli said.
With this knowledge, policymakers there could invest resources in projects and programs to prepare for a drier future. If the likelihood were low, they could set different priorities, Locatelli said.
Understanding the likelihood of different scenarios for local areas can also help local government officials gauge how vulnerable people in those areas will be to climate change and take steps to help them adapt. That requires planning at both the national and local levels, Locatelli said.
Farmers, for example, worry most about the impact of year-to-year variations in temperatures and precipitation on their crops, he said.
Policymakers may take a longer view, but even they do not necessarily perceive climate change as a major threat, according to one CIFOR study.
“We’re talking about impacts that are very likely to occur in the future in Mesoamerica, given our current knowledge of climate change,” Locatelli said. “The results of our work can help national policymakers, project developers and practitioners decide how to adapt.”
For more information on the topics discussed in this article, please contact Bruno Locatelli at email@example.com
This work forms part of the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry and is supported by the MESOTERRA Project of the Mesoamerican Agro-Environmental Program at the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE).