red joining with other states in the Common Core, a decrease of 14.7 percentage points from support with the unlabeled question. Somewhat surprisingly, the addition of the “Common Core” cue actually increased the proportion of voters who “haven’t thought much about the issue” (or didn’t know) by 10.5 points to 35.8%. Over a third (36.0%) of likely voters supported “opting out,” which was 4.2 percentage points higher than the equivalent choice of Florida maintaining its own standards offered in the unlabeled question.
As expected, the differences in responses attributable to question wording varies widely by level of education. Figure 2 shows that the Common Core label reduces support for joining with other states among respondents in all education categories, but the effect of question wording is mitigated among respondents with higher levels of education. Among college graduates, the difference between the two questions in support for joining with other states is 5.1 points. Among those who report some college education, the difference is 18.2 percentage points, while among those with no more than a high school degree, the difference is 29.9 points (though the sample size is fairly small in the latter category). College graduates apparently are more likely to recognize that the goals of the Common Core means joining with other states in establishing high academic standards, and they are not as likely to be swayed by changes in question wording.
Reflecting the fact that much (though not all) of the recent criticism of the Common Core has come from conservative groups, Figure 3 shows that support for joining with other states is highest among Democrats and lowest among Republicans, with Independents in between. The question wording with the Common Core label lowers support for joining with other states among all three groups, but the effect of question wording is strongest among Independents, who showed a 21.9-point difference in opinion between the two questions. Republicans and Democrats had differences of 13.0 and 15.0 points, respectively.
The question of whether Florida should cooperate with other states in establishing academic standards or whether we should maintain our own standards is an important one. After all, the governors and education administrators who put the Common Core on their states’ agenda did so out of concern that our students have the basic skills in math and language arts that would prepare them for their college curricula or for the workforce in a competitive global environment. It is also one of many issues on which the two major party candidates for Florida governor disagreed, so voters did have a real choice on this issue. Cues, such as party labels or elite endorsements, often help voters in developing their opinions on issues, but in this case, the addition of the label “Common Core” appears to have sown more doubt among many voters. Without that label, a clear plurality of Florida voters favor joining with other states to establish high academic standards, while with the label, a plurality of voters confess to not knowing enough about the issue to express an opinion. It is the responsibility of the campaigns and the media to discuss honest differences in such a way as to help, rather than hinder, voters to reach an informed opinion on important issues.
SOURCE: The data for this report are based on an October 2014 poll of likely voters conducted by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Survey Research Center. There were 395 responses to the unlabeled question, which yields a maximum sampling error of ± 5% in 19 samples out of 20. There were 380 responses to the labeled question, which also yields a maximum sampling error of ± 5% in 19 samples out of 20. More information at summary_of_methodology_toplines__october_14_2014_final_version.pdf
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: Thanks to Daniella De La Campa for assistance with preparation.
POSTED: November 13, 2014