The golden-fronted bowerbird (Amblyornis flavifrons). Photo: Stephen Richards
Time could soon run out for the north Queensland’s own Golden Bowerbird.
The tiny yellow bird - the smallest bowerbird in the world - is found only in the mountain tops of Queensland’s sub-tropical rainforests.
Climate modelling has indicated the high-altitude habitat of the Golden Bowerbird could shrink dramatically, forcing the bowerbird to seek shelter and food higher and higher up the mountains, until there is nowhere else to go.
However, pioneering framework developed by Queensland ecologists could save it, and many other species, from the effects of climate change.
Eve McDonald-Madden of the University of Queensland and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences headed a team of researchers in developing a mathematical framework to help determine the best time to relocate entire species to areas they have never inhabited before.
‘‘This might help determine when, for example, we should move a species from the tropics of Queensland to southeast Queensland,’’ she said.
‘‘The climate may warm, making southeast Queensland more like the tropics of Queensland, so species up there could survive better down here.’’
Timing is crucial in the managed relocation of species, Dr McDonald-Madden said.
Move it too soon and conservation resources might be wasted on a species which could have adapted to climate change naturally.
But the species could near extinction if their relocation is delayed.
There is much debate in the scientific community about the merits of managed relocation, with some saying the movement of endangered species to areas outside their normal habitat is their best chance of surviving in the wild.
Despite the ongoing debate, Dr McDonald-Madden developed a mathematical formula to determine when to carry out a species relocation, weighing the biological and socioeconomic costs of moving, species’ risk of extinction and the risk to the new habitat.
‘‘Instead of adding to the debate about whether we should be doing it or not, we wanted to create a decision-making framework that aided those people in making good decisions about when to do it,’’ she said.
‘‘The decision is quite complex. This is the first framework about how to time the move.
‘‘The last part of the framework is doing a mathematical optimisation that tells you the best time to move the species.’’
Moving species for conservation purposes is not new, with the translocation [movement between existing habitats] of 42 species in Australian history.
However, all relocations to date have been carried out in response to tangible threats such as pests or diseases, stock grazing and land clearing.
Under current environmental regulation, there is no provision for relocating species in response to climate change.
Australia has a higher rate of relocation failure than many other parts of the world, with the most frequent reason being attacks by cats and foxes.
And alleviating the threat of climate change by moving a species to a more suitable habitat may not mitigate the other threats, Dr McDonald-Madden said.
Therefore, she said, the decisions about implementing managed relocation will rely on good predictions about the impact of climate change on a species.
‘‘There’s no doubt in my mind that climate change is going to have a dramatic impact on our biodiversity,’’ Dr McDonald-Madden said.
‘‘We need to think outside the square in terms of action ... and it’s always prudent to think about action that might be considered extreme or a last resort.
‘‘Do we want to see Queensland species in Victoria if [keeping them] means we don’t have them anymore?
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