in years.While overfishing has a greater effect on fish stocks than climate change today, progress is being made on the overfishing problem.
28 CC Impact Ranking for Fisheries 1. Small rivers and lakes, in areas of higher temperatures and less rain2. Within EEZs, particularly where fishers cannot follow migrating fish3. In large rivers and lakes4. In estuaries5. High seasAn impact ranking can be constructed. The following categories are listed in descending order of sensitivity, positive or negative, to climate change [medium confidence].1. Freshwater fisheries in small rivers and lakes, in regions with larger temperature and precipitation change;2. Fisheries within Exclusive Economic Zones, particularly where access regulation mechanisms artificially reduce the mobility of fishing groups and fleets and their capacity to adjust to fluctuations in stock distribution and abundance;3. Fisheries in large rivers and lakes;4. Fisheries in estuaries, particularly where there are species without migration or spawn dispersal paths, or estuaries impacted by sea level rise or by decreased river flow;5. High seas fisheries.
29 Adaptation OptionsEstablish management institutions that recognize shifting distributions, abundances and accessibility, and that balance conservation with economic efficiency and stabilitySupport innovation by research on management systems and aquatic ecosystemsExpand aquaculture to increase and stabilize seafood supplies and employment, and carefully, to augment wild stocksIntegrate fisheries and CZ managementMonitor health problems (e.g., red tides, ciguatera, cholera)- Design and implement national and international fishery management institutions that recognize shifting species ranges, accessibility, and abundances and that balance species conservation with local needs for economic efficiency and stability.- Support innovation by research on management systems and aquatic ecosystems;- Expand aquaculture to increase and stabilize seafood supplies, to help stabilize employment, and carefully, to augment wild stocks;- In coastal areas, integrate the management of fisheries with other uses of coastal zones;- Monitor health problems (e.g., red tides, ciguatera, cholera) that could increase under climate change and harm fish stocks and consumers.ActionNow that the documents are being distributed, it is time to turn to the action recommendations. For this Congress, I would argue for addressing only the first. I believe it is the most important. This recommendation, in bold above, seeks to build into resource management regimes the concept that fish abundances and distributions will change over time as a consequence of climate change and also that resource productivity and industrial capacity should be in balance. THIS APPROACH IS NEEDED NOW! Perhaps climate change awareness can serve as a vehicle to bring this essential message to the attention of political leaders and fishery managers. The natural variability in regional climate, that sometimes takes places over decades, represents greater (or as great) changes as will come with climate change. The only difference may be the permanance of the changes. If we can adapt our institutions to deal with climate change, we will have addressed the natural variability issues that plague many existing institutions and the industries they regulate.
30 Understanding Requires a Broad View Oceanwide Synchrony in Pacific Sardines and the North Pacific IndexHistorical catches in the sardine fisheries of Japan, California and Peru-Chile exhibit parallel patterns, possibly in response to global-scale changes in climate (modified from Kawasaki, 1992).Negative NPINegative NPI8007700Peru/Chile66005California Sardine Catch(Thousand Metric Tons)500California4Japan and Peru/Chile Sardine Catch(Million Metric Tons)40033002200Japan110019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000What comes first?Sources: U.S. GLOBEC, FAO North Pacific Index (Atmos. Pressure)
31 Where to get Information Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):NMFS Pacific Fisheries Env LabU.S. Environmental Prote