e population change. The method assumes an exponential model of population size change. In this model, prior distributions for N0, N1, T and μ are assumed to be log normal. The mean and the standard deviations of these prior log normal distributions are drawn from priors (or hyperpriors) distributions.
Wide “uninformative” priors were used to perform multiple runs for this approach (Table S6). For minimal effect towards the posterior distributions variances for the prior distributions were kept large. The total number of iterations was always 2 × 106.
The generation time for tigers is known to be about five years , and we used this information for all analyses.
Figure showing investigated mitochondrial regions and the variable positions (lines) and the associated heterozygosities of these positions for all tiger subspecies. The colored boxes highlight the regions amplified by our primers for this study.
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(A) Population size change for the tigers in the Indian subcontinent, with black and green curves corresponding to the posterior distributions under models of exponential and linear population size change, respectively. The prior distribution is represented by flat dotted line. Irrespective of various models, there is no support for population increase. (B) The posterior distributions for ancestral (red curve) and present (green) population size are represented here. The priors are represented by the dotted line (present population) and dashed line (ancestral population). (C) The posterior distribution for the time since the population decline started for Indian tigers (black curve) is represented here. The priors are shown by the dashed lines. The distribution has a median value at around 270 years. (D) Joint posterior distribution of ancestral and current population size based on South and Central India tiger data. The 90%, 50%, and 10% highest probability density (HPD) limits are plotted for the joint distribution of ancestral and current population size on a logarithmic scale. The diagonal line corresponds to stable population size.
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(A) Population size change for the Indian tigers (30 microsatellites, n = 5) with red and green curves corresponding to the posterior distributions under models of exponential and linear population size change, respectively. The prior distribution is represented by flat dotted line. (B) The posterior distributions for ancestral (red curve) and present (green) population size are represented here (30 microsatellites, n = 5). The priors are represented by the dotted line (present population) and dashed line (ancestral population). (C) The posterior distribution for the time since the population decline started for Indian tigers (black curve) is represented here. The priors are shown by the dashed lines. The distribution has a median value at around 258 years. (D) Joint posterior distribution of ancestral and current population size based on Indian tiger data. The 90%, 50%, and 10% highest probability density (HPD) limits are plotted for the joint distribution of ancestral and current population size on a logarithmic scale. The diagonal line corresponds to stable population size.
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(A) Posterior distributions for rate of population size changes from independent MCMC runs for Indian tigers under linear change model (Beaumont method). Details of the models are given in Table S4. (B) Posterior distributions for rate of population size changes from independent MCMC runs for Indian tigers under exponential change model (Beaumont method). Details of the models are given in Table S5.
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(A) Posterior distributions for current population size from independent MCMC runs for Indian tigers under Storz and Beaumont method. Details of the models are given in Table S6. (B) Posterior distributions for ancestral population size from independent MCMC runs for Indian tigers under Storz and Beaumont method. Details of the models are given in Table S6. (C) Posterior distributions for time since population decline from independent MCMC runs for Indian tigers unde