How many movies, cartoons and sci-fi series have you seen featuring some kind of superintelligent robotic race? Probably quite a few. In some films, such as Terminator, they come to conquer the world; in others, they help us out; and in some, like Wall-E, they’re simply adorable. Of course, these robots are fictional, but will they always be? Will the future bring superintelligent AI? If it does, what will they look like and when will they appear?
In Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom, we learn about the journey toward AI so far – where we might be going; the moral issues and safety concerns we need to address; and the best ways to reach the goal of creating a machine that’ll outsmart all others.
What fundamentally sets us apart from the beasts of the field? Well, the main difference between human beings and animals is our capacity for abstract thinking paired with the ability to communicate and accumulate information. In essence, our superior intelligence propelled us to the top.
So what would the emergence of a new species, intellectually superior to humans, mean for the world?
First we’ll need to review a bit of history. For instance, did you know that the pace of major revolutions in technology has been increasing over time? For example, improving at the snail’s pace of a few hundred thousand years ago, human technology would have needed one million years to become economically productive enough to sustain the lives of an additional million people. This number dropped to two centuries during the Agricultural Revolution in 5,000 BC. And in our post-Industrial Revolution era it shrunk to a mere 90 minutes.
A technological advancement like the advent of superintelligent machines would mean radical change for the world as we know it. But where does technology stand at present?
We have already been able to create machines that have the capacity to learn and reason using information that’s been plugged in by humans. Consider, for example, the automated spam filters that keep our inboxes free from annoying mass emails and save important messages.
However, this is far from the kind of “general intelligence” humans possess, and which has been the goal of AI research for decades. And when it comes to building a superintelligent machine that can learn and act without the guiding hand of a human, it may still be decades away. But advancements in the field are happening quickly, so it could be upon us faster than we think. Such a machine would have a lot of power over our lives. Its intelligence could even be dangerous, since it would be too smart for us to disable in the event of an emergency.
Since the invention of computers in 1940, scientists have been working to build a machine that can think. What progress has been made? One major advance in Artificial Intelligence (or AI) are man-made machines that mimic our own intelligence.
The story begins with the 1956 Dartmouth Summer Project, which endeavored to build intelligent machines that could do what humans do. Some machines could solve calculus problems, while others could write music and even drive cars. But there was a roadblock: inventors realized that the more complex the task, the more information the AI needed to process. Hardware to take on such difficult functions was unavailable.
By the mid-1970s, interest in AI had faded. But in the early ‘80s, Japan developed expert systems – rule-based programs that helped decision-makers by generating inferences based on data. However, this technology also encountered a problem: the huge banks of information required proved difficult to maintain, and interest dropped once again.
The ‘90s witnessed a new trend: machines that mimicked human biology by using technology to copy our neural and genetic structures. This process brings us up to the present day. Today, AI is present in everything from robots that conduct surgeries to smartphones to a simple Google search. The technology has improved to the point where it can beat the best human players at chess, Scrabble and Jeopardy!
But even our modern technol