ew dam projects.
- Reduced run-off decreases water availability for dams and hydropower generation. According to the government’s climate change assessment, since the 1950s, more than 82% of glaciers have been in a state of retreat; and the pace has accelerated since the 1990s6. Many of the major river basins slated for dam construction, such as the Nu, Lancang, and Jinsha, flow from the Tibetan Plateau. While in the short term, this may increase river run-off, in the long term, this will pose a huge risk for China’s major glacier-fed rivers. In addition, researchers warned earlier this year that melting permafrost could decrease river runoff in the Yangtze, which is already starting to experience a decrease in flow7.
- Sediment build-up behind dams reduces deltas’ capacity to mitigate sea level rise. Sea level rise combined with sediment build-up behind dams poses a threat to China’s three major deltas, the Yellow, the Yangtze, and the Pearl. These are all on the world’s top 11 highest risk deltas. The Pearl River Estuary in particular could see an increasing risk of flood disasters in the future. According to the government’s assessment, China’s efforts to protect vulnerable coastal areas with embankments are inadequate to protect them against the projected increase in typhoons and flood tides8.
Reducing risks, increasing resilience
Reducing the risk of climate change impacts in China will require both global action to cut emissions and national-level policy reforms that prioritize climate-friendly and climate resilient projects above conventional energy sources like coal and large hydro, and that promote the ecological health of rivers and lake systems. It will also mean reforming the grid sector by increasing grid interconnections to bring other energy sources such as wind closer to load centers, adapting hydropower design to reduce climate risks and the impacts of dams on critical ecosystems that are key for adaptation, and adjust hydropower tariffs to reflect their true social and environmental costs.
Leadership on these fronts is already evident. At the end of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Environmental Protection released two documents related to Environmental Impact Assessments and hydropower plans that highlight the importance of a river’s ecological value and the need for public participation. While these guidelines go a long way toward mitigating potential impacts, they will require strong implementation by local and national authorities, greater inter-agency collaboration, and greater participation and monitoring by civil society in order to shift the discourse away from conventional high-risk projects towards more climate resilient, innovative, and long-lasting solutions. Climate change is indeed one of the most serious threats of our time, but if China succeeds in building dams on the scale that ise currently proposed, it will irrevocably destroy its great rivers and the ecological services that they provide for present and future generations.
Katy Yan is the China Program Coordinator and climate campaigner at International Rivers. She blogs at www.internationalrivers.org/blog/246.