As WHO raised its threat alert to level 5 on April 29, the mayor of Mexico City further stepped up measures. Local and federal government offices and private businesses “not fundamental” to the economy were ordered to suspend work for 5 days until May 5. Labour Secretary, Javier Lozano, urged employers to monitor their workers health and said they should isolate anyone showing up for work with signs of the influenza. Only essential businesses such as supermarkets, hospitals, and chemists were allowed to remain open.
Over the bank holiday weekend, Mexico City ground to a halt. Most citizens heeded President Calderon's advice. “Stay at home with your families. There is no safer place to avoid getting infected than in your own home”, he said during his first nationwide televised address on April 29 since the public health crisis erupted. The capital's normally gridlocked and smog filled avenues were traffic free and eerily silent. The last time Mexico City came to such a standstill was in the aftermath of the 1985 earthquake.
The Mexican Government is boosting its stockpile of antivirals. “We've been accumulating our stockpiles for the last 6 years, and while there's enough Tamiflu to go around, more is being imported”, explained Sotelo.
So far, the exact source of the outbreak remains a mystery. Un-confirmed rumours point to La Gloria, a dusty town in the southern Mexican state of Veracruz, where it is believed that 5-year-old Edgar Hernández became infected with the A (H1N1) virus in late March. Some local residents in La Gloria have blamed the nearby US-owned industrial pig farms for the outbreak of the disease. “This is just speculation”, said Sotelo. “We're working hard to find out the source of the outbreak.”
In Mexico City, the outbreak may be smaller than first feared. As testing continues, the number of confirmed cases has turned out to be far less than the 2500 suspected cases initially reported. “Apparently the rate of infection is not as widespread as we might have thought”, said Córdova on May 1.
So far, 26 people have died from laboratory confirmed cases of the A (H1N1) virus, including a child in the USA. WHO believes a pandemic is “imminent” and says the focus is now on “minimizing the impact of the virus…rather than on stopping its spread internationally”. As of 0600 h GMT May 4, according to WHO, 20 countries have officially reported 985 cases of A (H1N1) influenza, including ten European countries, the USA (226 cases), and Canada (85 cases). Apart from Mexico, so far, four other countries have reported confirmed laboratory case of A (H1N1) infection in Latin America.
In the USA the epicentre of the outbreak is in New York, but across the country hundreds of schools have closed. Schools with pupils who have suspected or confirmed cases of influenza A are being recommended to close for 14 days. “I do believe we'll see an escalation of cases in the US”, said Paul Jarris, director of the US Association of State and Territorial Health Officials.
Melvin Kramer, president of EHA Consulting Group—a public health consultancy in Maryland—emphasises that the outbreak must be seen in context. “It's scary, it's bad but I think we've been hyped”, said Kramer, “35 000 to 37 000 people in the US die every single year from seasonal flu.”