d care from age eight weeks until entry into kindergarten (Ramey and Campbell 1984, 1990). Control-group children were denied access to ABC/CARE, but a substantial fraction of them were placed in alternative childcare centres. Data covering a wide array of outcomes, such as cognitive and social-emotional skills, education, health, and administrative crime records were collected throughout the duration of the programme and up to age 34.
The programme and its replicates are currently in place at 18 sites around the world. It is a template for designing new programs, such as Educare, which offers rigorously monitored centre-based education and parental support for disadvantaged families with children between six weeks and five years old (Stein et al. 2016, Yazejian et al. 2017).
We develop and apply a rigorous approach to evaluate the effectiveness of ABC/CARE. We use multiple data sources to enrich sample size and forecast future costs and benefits beyond age 34. We monetise the multiple lifetime programme benefits, including the benefits arising from a childcare subsidy for women that fosters their engagement in the workforce and their educational attainment.
The programme promotes adult health, educational attainment, earnings, employment, and civic participation. It reduces adult crime.
The programme has a two-generation impact. There are substantial benefits for the mothers of the participants. ABC/CARE provided full-day childcare that allows mothers of participant children to work more and attend school, increasing their labour income, work experience, and education. Because the benefits from enhanced maternal income accrue early on in the life of the programme, they offset the cost of the programme earlier than other benefit sources that accrue later in life.
Figure 1 shows the monetary values of the discounted lifetime benefits and costs of ABC/CARE for the different programme outcomes. The overall rate of return is 13% per annum. Every dollar invested repays seven dollars over the life of the project. These estimates account the distortionary costs of raising taxes to finance the programs. There are greater monetised benefits for boys than for girls. This is primarily because of a reduction of violent crime and greater improvements in health for males. However, benefits are substantial for both. Our paper reports a range of plausible estimates that account for estimation error, forecast error, and bands of plausible estimates of the monetary benefits from reduced crime and enhanced lifetime health.
About 75 percent of the control-group children were placed in low-quality centre-based preschools. Only 25 percent stayed at home with family members. The effectiveness of an intervention is properly measured relative to the alternatives available. We estimate the benefit-cost ratio compared to (1) staying at home, (2) going to alternative, lower-quality centres, and (3) the ‘next best’ option for each child (i.e. the best of the first two options). Estimates vary across genders and the baselines used (see Table 1).
Boys are especially vulnerable to being placed in low quality preschools compared to remaining at home – whatever the quality. The benefit-cost ratio of staying at home is 3.30, but is not statistically significantly different from one. The benefits of high-quality formal care compared to low-quality formal care are considerably higher for boys compared to girls (11.46 vs 2.28). The fact that the benefits are much lower for taking boys out of the home and placing them in high-quality childcare is consistent with a large literature in psychology and economics on the greater vulnerability of young boys to being removed from the home environment (Golding and Fitzgerald 2016, Schore 2016, García et al. 2017).
Are Programmes too Costly?
A common complaint about early childcare programmes is that they are costly (Fox Business News 2014). ABC/CARE costs about $19,000 per year in 2017 dollars. Children in the treatment group remain in the program for five years.
Focusing solely on costs misses the crucial point that 