y rough map of the prevalence of COVID-19 in predominantly urban pockets. But taken together with a study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) last month (results of which have not been made public) and the new report on Delhi released on Tuesday, the figure of 18 crore Indians having been infected with COVID-19, many of whom may be asymptomatic, is believable. Still, it must be stressed that there is no official word on a pan-India figure yet.
Herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine is a controversial issue. Two countries that have come closest to following such a policy are Sweden and the UK. While the Boris Johnson government quickly dissociated itself from allegations that it was considering herd immunity to tackle COVID-19 after cases started to rise rapidly in March and April – the UK went into a thorough lockdown eventually -- the Swedish government has followed what can be best described as a deliberate policy of partial herd immunity.
The results have been depressing, and Sweden has reported a much higher fatality rate due to COVID-19 compared to its Nordic neighbours like Denmark and Norway.
India, of course, had one of the most stringent lockdowns anywhere in the world when it was first announced. But for whatever reasons, the virus has spread, much more than some officials may like to perhaps admit. Looking at the data, some independent experts are calling the government to open up colleges across the country so that the virus is allowed to spread quickly among younger people who are unlikely to fall very sick. In this way, they argue, the country could move faster towards the threshold of 40 to 50 per cent infection, which will then lead to the much-touted herd immunity.
But many experts disagree. With the joint family system quite common in India, the possibility of young people infecting their parents and grandparents can’t be ruled out, which could lead to hospitalizations and the death toll spiralling out of control.
Also, the disease does not always spare the young and any strategy of intentionally increasing the infection rate raises several ethical concerns.
The fact is for a population of 130 crores to rely on a strategy of herd immunity on the basis of 18 crore infected cases has too many deadly unknowns. That’s why, in the weeks and months ahead, the government is unlikely to take deliberate steps to speed up herd immunity. It seems social distancing guidelines, mask-wearing, maintaining hand hygiene and avoiding large crowds will continue to be our mantra in the short to medium term.