Since the beginning of the 1990s, Russia has been suffering from a negative demographic trend. Despite active immigration—more than 9 million people arrived in Russia between 1990 and 2014—the population declined by 3.7 million (Chart 1).  Though many developed countries face a similar challenge, there are a number of specific behind the trend Russia: decline in the quality of life in the first decade after the disintegration of the USSR, rising mortality among men below 50 years old due to alcoholism, the decline in the number of women aged between 20 and 30 years old because of the demographic pyramid that was damaged during World War II. 
Chart 1. Changes in the Population of Russia by Factors (1990-2014)
The problem of declining population in Russia was identified by Russian and international experts long ago and all forecasts gave a negative prognosis: the decline of population will continue and even accelerate starting 2015. By 2005, this challenge had been recognized by Russian authorities and steps were taken to mitigate the problem. Measures were adopted to increase the birth rate, reduce mortality, as well as to increase healthcare protection reduce smoking and alcoholism.
At first glance, those measures had a positive impact: the negative rate of natural increase (RNI) of population shrank to zero by the end-2012 and even turned positive in 2013-2014. But many experts believe that it is too early to celebrate. Such positive changes could be attributed to changes in the family model: Today, Russian women are having their first child later in life (in 1999 the modal age of the first birth was 21 years, in 2012, it was 25 years; thus a lower birth rate five years ago is being compensated now), as well as to favorable demographics (the current number of Russian women in the age group 25-30, those with the highest fertility rates, is historically high, 20 percent more than it was 10 years ago and 80 percent more than it will be in 10 years). The payoff from both factors will be exhausted in the next year or two; only then can the real efficiency of the government’s measures be evaluated.
At the end of 2014, the Russian statistical agency Rosstat published its updated demographic forecast through 2050. The forecast confirms that demographics will remain the biggest political, social, and economic challenge for Russia in the coming decades. Moreover, contrary to earlier estimates, the situation will not stabilize by 2030-2035.
Three scenarios, all migration-based
Three scenarios were provided in the forecast (Chart 2): i) a continuation of current trends (low), ii) a more realistic appraisal of the effectiveness of the measures taken to date (medium), and iii) an outcome reflective of the goal Russian demographic policy to 2025, the authorities’ dream scenario (high). The first scenario suggests Russia’s population will shrink by 20 percent over the next 35 years; the second that it will remain at the current level; and the third that the population will increase by 15 percent. In these three scenarios, Rosstat used not only a different demographic hypothesis, but different migration assumptions. The first scenario assumes that annual inward immigration over the forecast period will gradually decline from 270,000 people a year at the start of the period to 170,000 by the end. In total, Russia’s population will grow by 7.7 million people in the next 35 years due to immigration. In the “current-level” scenario, the annual immigration gain increases to 385,000 people by 2030 and then gradually grows to 400,000 per year. This results in an additional 13.6 million people over the period. In the “dream” scenario, annual immigration increases rapidly up to half-a-million people a year by 2022, and then to 555,000 by 2030, holding at that level until 2050. This would mean almost 19 million more people from immigration.
Chart 2. Population of Russia: Three Scenarios
Are there so many potential migrants?
It seems that neither the high migration variant projection, nor the “current-level” projection, are very realistic. Accordi