 — more than ever a necessity.
The week-long series will gather together representatives of the ministries of natural resources and environmental protection and the water agencies of Belarus, Lithuania and the Russian Federation, as well as representatives of the UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Water Convention), UNDP, ENVSEC, international experts, local authorities and other interested parties.
During the field trip and seminars it is planned to visit monitoring stations in Belarus and Lithuania, hydropower plants, quarries, analytical control laboratories and other water facilities. The main results of the project activities to date will be discussed: climate change scenarios for the Neman River Basin; expected changes in water run-off and in water quality due to climate change; and the monitoring systems and draft Internet platform (database) for sharing information about the state of water resources in the basin. Possible adaptation measures will also be discussed, as well as collaboration with other international projects within the basin and opportunities for further transboundary cooperation of the countries located within it.
Two press conferences for will be organized during the seminars held in Hrodna, Belarus, and Druskininkai, Lithuania:
On 16 October, 10.15–10.45 a.m., in the Conference Hall of RUE “Grodnoenergo”, Molodzezhnaja str., 2, Hrodna.
On 18 October, 10.15–10.45 a.m., in the Conference Hall of the Hotel Grand Spa —Druskininkai, V. Kudirkos str., 43, Druskininkai.
Note to editors:
Model temperature projections for Neman river basin foresee an air temperature rise in the first half of the 21st century. Mean annual air temperature in the basin is expected to rise by 1.4° C–1.7° C according to different climate scenarios, with a 2.0 ° C–2.8° C increase in Winter and 0.7° C–1.1° C increase in Summer. The annual precipitation amount will also likely increase in the Neman basin area. Larger changes are predicted for the first half of the year, while for the summer-autumn period smaller positive or even negative changes are foreseen. Model outputs data indicate a decrease in sunshine duration in the first half of the 21st century. The largest sunshine duration decrease will be observed during the winter months. Due to the cold season air temperature rise and changes in precipitation composition snow cover will decline in the near-term future.
Results of the future water balance modelling show that significant changes of the runoff regime in the Neman basin are likely to happen. The projected annual runoff will be lower in 2021-2050 than in 1961-2009 in the Belarusian part of the Neman basin, but the annual runoff in the Lithuanian part of the Neman basin is likely to increase. The largest positive changes are projected in January and February due to the earlier start of spring flood, rise of winter precipitation and increased frequency of thaws. The projected maximum runoff will decrease in the majority of the Neman basin because of warmer Winters with more frequent thaws and consequently less water accumulated in snow cover before flood. Spring flood will also start earlier due to the shorter duration of snow cover. Higher flood risk can be expected only in the western part of Lithuania. The changing climate will also affect the warm season (May-September) runoff. The decrease of May-September runoff in some catchments suggests that in some parts of the Neman basin the hydrological droughts may be more frequent or with higher magnitude then they were in the 1961-2009.
Forecasted water use for the industry of Belarus will grow by 0.5-2.0% per year in case of optimistic scenario of economic development which will also have slight impact on runoff regime. However, it was determined that the impact of climate change will be more important on runoff in the Neman River Basin on the territory of Belarus in comparison with forecasted impact of water use changes. The findings are available from the project website at http://www1.unece.org/ehlm/platf