n influx of freshwater to induce spawning or to kill predators• Temperatures above or below the stock’s lethal limit• Immobility of communities dependent on one species• Societies without money to buy other foods• Fishers unable to deal with new vessel/gear demandsSpeciesSpecies are defined by predator - prey relationshipsFishers without ability to deal with increased vessel and gear demands--Storminess/safety, pursuit of fishShift in economies and food sources in developing countriesSocietal
26 Important FindingsFreshwater fisheries and aquaculture at mid to higher latitudes should benefitSaltwater fisheries should be about the sameFishery areas and species mix will shiftChanges in abundance more likely near ecosystem boundariesNational fisheries will suffer if fishers cannot move within and across national bordersSubsistence/small scale fishermen suffer mostThere are no compelling data to suggest a confluence of climate change impacts that would affect global marine production in either direction,These conclusions are dependent on the assumption that natural climate variability and the structure and strength of wind fields and ocean currents will remain about the same. If either changes, there would be significant impacts on the distribution of major fish stocks, though not on the global production [medium confidence].National fisheries will suffer if institutional mechanisms are not in place that enable fishers to move within and across national boundaries [high confidence]. Subsistence and other small scale fishermen, lacking mobility and alternatives, are often most dependent on specific fisheries and will suffer disproportionately from changes
27 Important Findings-2CC impacts add to overfishing, lost wetlands and nurseries, pollution, UV-B, and natural variationInherent instability in world fisheries will be exacerbated by a changing climateGlobally, economic and food supply impacts should be small. Nationally, they could be largeOverfishing is more important than CC today; the relationship should reverse in years.While overfishing has a greater effect on fish stocks than climate change today, progress is being made on the overfishing problem.
28 CC Impact Ranking for Fisheries 1. Small rivers and lakes, in areas of higher temperatures and less rain2. Within EEZs, particularly where fishers cannot follow migrating fish3. In large rivers and lakes4. In estuaries5. High seasAn impact ranking can be constructed. The following categories are listed in descending order of sensitivity, positive or negative, to climate change [medium confidence].1. Freshwater fisheries in small rivers and lakes, in regions with larger temperature and precipitation change;2. Fisheries within Exclusive Economic Zones, particularly where access regulation mechanisms artificially reduce the mobility of fishing groups and fleets and their capacity to adjust to fluctuations in stock distribution and abundance;3. Fisheries in large rivers and lakes;4. Fisheries in estuaries, particularly where there are species without migration or spawn dispersal paths, or estuaries impacted by sea level rise or by decreased river flow;5. High seas fisheries.
29 Adaptation OptionsEstablish management institutions that recognize shifting distributions, abundances and accessibility, and that balance conservation with economic efficiency and stabilitySupport innovation by research on management systems and aquatic ecosystemsExpand aquaculture to increase and stabilize seafood supplies and employment, and carefully, to augment wild stocksIntegrate fisheries and CZ managementMonitor health problems (e.g., red tides, ciguatera, cholera)- Design and implement national and international fishery management institutions that recognize shifting species ranges, accessibility, and abundances and that balance species conservation with local needs for economic efficiency and stability.- Support innovation by research on management systems and aquatic ecosystems;- Expand aquaculture to increase and stabilize seafood supplies, to help stabilize employment, and carefully, to au