reinforced, with Delhi growing at 79 people/hour, Shanghai at 53 and Mumbai at 51; Latin American cities like Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro slowing to 22, 18 and 10 respectively while New York and London demonstrate their urban resurgence at 9 and 10 people/hour, running contrary to the majority of mature cities in Europe (especially Eastern Europe) and some cities in North America which have been hit particularly hard by economic restructuring and the recent recession. Interestingly, Hong Kong’s highly controlled and efficient planning regime leads to a relatively low projection of 4 people/hour.
Analysing patterns of economic development in cities across the globe reveals equally striking regional differences. Using data on the economic performance of 700 cities with more than 500,000 people over the next 15 years (based on data from UN Desa), it appears that larger cities tend to perform disproportionately well. In 2012, large cities made up 33% of the world’s global population, but produced more than 55% of all global economic output.
Future patterns of economic output and growth for the same 700 cities show that dramatic regional differences will still persist in GDP per capita in 2030 between the global north and global south – with important exceptions in the Middle East, China and parts of Latin America and Oceania, with the most intense growth in average GDP concentrated in China and East Asia. While there is evidence that urbanisation contributes to wealth creation, especially in cities in developing countries, it is likely that the economic gulf between rich and poor is likely to persist.
Where people live and how much they consume are inextricably linked. People living in the highly concentrated urbanised regions of eastern China and the Ganges Valley in India have modest consumption patterns compared to the oil and petrol-guzzling habits of those in the more sparsely populated regions of North America and the Middle East, where people have much higher income levels. There are equally varied patterns between the established urban areas of Europe and the US, and the more widely scattered but dense cities of Latin America and Africa. Reflecting global disparities in wealth, lifestyles and consumption, the map below confirms that a person living in the United Arab Emirates is likely to use 40 times more energy than a Bangladeshi, while a UK citizen consumes less than half of his US counterpart, but twice as much as a typical Mexican, and slightly less than a Dane.
Electricity is a major component of the world’s energy mix. Yet, electrification differs substantially between countries, swinging from less than 5% of total energy in Nigeria and Nepal, to more than 50% in Sweden and France. But a high share of electricity does not necessarily deliver environmental benefits. Generation is still dominated by carbon emitting fossil fuels, and electricity is not always the most efficient energy choice for uses such as heating and cooling in buildings. Aside from electricity, most of the world’s energy consumption involves directly burning fossil fuels, such as oil for transport, coal for making steel and cement industries and gas for heating. Despite recent improvements in some countries in procuring energy from renewables, they make up only 13% of the world’s total consumption – mostly hydro-electricity in high-income countries and biomass for cooking and heating in low income countries.
Carbon emissions by sector confirm that fossil-fuel based electricity is an important contributor to global climate change. Emissions from electricity generation vary depending on fuel source, with coal-dependent countries such as Australia, China and South Africa showing high proportions. In contrast, Denmark has lower emissions from electricity due to its high level of renewable generation. Varying levels of emissions from transport also echo motorisation rates. Global carbon emissions are concentrated in a few nations with China and the US alone producing 39% of global emissions.
The urban footprint
To capture the subtle 