s and decision points along the way as economic trends unfold, an EWS would provide guidance — allowing policymakers to change the alignment of dominos, as it were, and avert financial crises.
We have the historical knowledge needed to implement a financial EWS — most logically at the IMF. But we need economists who know their financial history and who are committed to a "signals approach" rather than economists who keep saying "this time is different." Nothing short of a wholesale culture change in our global financial institutions is required, one that recognizes that the urgency of the times demands early warning of financial crises — and that we are capable of providing it.
Dr. Leif Rosenberger, the economic adviser to Gen. David H. Petraeus at Central Command, has done award-winning work on the likely impact of the global financial crisis on CentCom's area of responsibility. Before that, he was economic adviser for 10 years at the Pacific Command in Hawaii.