invasive species, leading to higher tree mortality, slow regeneration in some species, and altered species assemblages [fewer or changed species].
While wildfires and the pine beetle infestation will mainly impact the Western states, no area of the nation will be exempt from rapidly changing riparian ecosystems, according to the report.
- In the Northeast, “a warmer climate will cause a major reduction of spruce-fir forest, moderate reduction of maple-birchbeech forest, and expansion of oak-dominated forest” and many migratory birds that nest in the area will be forced to move northward.
- In the Southeast, a major supplier of raw wood products, warming temperatures and more variable rainfall could push the pine forests into decline. In addition, “increased fire hazard and insect outbreaks will provide significant challenges for sustainable management of forests for timber and other uses…” A bright spot: The changes could “motivate redstoration of the fire-tolerant longleaf pine forests.”
- In the Midwest, northern and boreal tree species will decrease at the south edge of their range and increase north of their current range. Some forested wetlands will disappear, possibly replaced by tree species such as oaka nd hickory that require less water. Forests will become more fragmented, reducing connectivity for wildlife.
Where’s the good news? Humans may be able to adapt, and may be motivated to do so, because these “disturbances” to forests will reduce their productive value to human enterprises.
“Although uncertainty exists about the magnitude and timing of climate change effects on forest ecosystems, sufficient scientific information is available to begin taking action now,” the authors wrote.
Land can be managed to reduce fire risks, for instance, by thinning trees. In other situations, deforestation can be stopped, reducing carbon loss to the atmosphere and slowing climate change. By the same token, replanting can help replace carbon-holding forests.
The report included several technical papers to guide forest managers in different regions of the U.S..