eing expended in the context of sustainable development, whether technological changes alone will suffice and how innovative technologies can spread quickly enough to meet the world's huge and growing need for energy, transportation, food, buildings and goods within a re-framed urban transition.Policy relevant research will inform the political debate more directly than in the past as countries aim to modify some longer term trends without affecting urban middle class levels of wellbeing.
Cities are already home to half the world’s population, and account for more than 80% of global economic output and 75% of global energy use and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions; by 2050 two-thirds of the global population will be urban. Responding to this mega-trend the vision of international cooperation has moved away from reliance on environmental law, national obligations and dispute settlement arrangements regulating production patterns;growth in global carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generated from fossil fuels and from industry has ceased in the past two years.
A common understanding is now to be achieved in the Global Stocktake to influence public opinion and modify consumption patterns which, along with services, constitute the major component of GDP and increasing emissions; transport emissions continue to grow in all countries and energy efficiency, also in cities, has the greatest potential in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. That is why the Agreement requires all countries to provide by 2020low emission development strategies.
Negotiations continue on the common understanding
It is already clear that countries will interpret the compromise formulations according to the impact on per capita incomes of their citizens. As the new principles are still evolving, there is lack of specificity about what is to be reported, guidelinesfor reviews of national contributions and modalities of their aggregate assessment in the global stocktaking. These are the three legally binding elements that will together frame how international cooperation will continue to be enhanced and what each country will continue to do.The road map of the interlocked web of data, information and assessments is expected to resolve differences once there is a common understanding on the guidelines.
The Ad Hoc Working Group has to give early guidance to the IPCC for the Special Report (Para 21) so that the “global greenhouse gas emission pathways” take into account the ‘context’ of sustainable development and eradication of poverty, as required in the Purpose of the Agreement. The COP has to give guidance to the secretariat with respect to the information to be submitted for the stocktake (Art 11).
As methodologies that are adopted by researchers shape policy relevant science that will inform the multilateral process, intense negotiations can be expected on the types of data to be provided and parameters of their assessment in the five processes established under the Agreement,so as to enhance international cooperation:
· ‘facilitative dialogue’ in 2018, in the context of equity, sustainable development and eradication of poverty (Art 4.1),should balance timeframes for peaking where the urban transition is still on-going with those for reaching zero-emission levels in countries whose emissions have already peaked (Para 20);
· guidelines for the contributions require determination of the “reference point” for ‘understanding’ how the “contribution is fair and ambitious” and should include per capita emissions and incomes(Para27 and 26, 28);
· reviews have to recognise ‘flexibility in light of capacities’ by comparing emissions over time (at least 1990 but preferably 1950), defining ‘environmental integrity’ in terms of modification of longer term trends, adaptationin terms on adverse impacts on water and food security and support provided interms of technology transfer to ensure ‘completeness’ of the review (Para 92,93 and 95);
· stocktake should be based on the entire range of information submitted (Para 100) and should consider the globa