f the year, while for the summer-autumn period smaller positive or even negative changes are foreseen. Model outputs data indicate a decrease in sunshine duration in the first half of the 21st century. The largest sunshine duration decrease will be observed during the winter months. Due to the cold season air temperature rise and changes in precipitation composition snow cover will decline in the near-term future.
Results of the future water balance modelling show that significant changes of the runoff regime in the Neman basin are likely to happen. The projected annual runoff will be lower in 2021-2050 than in 1961-2009 in the Belarusian part of the Neman basin, but the annual runoff in the Lithuanian part of the Neman basin is likely to increase. The largest positive changes are projected in January and February due to the earlier start of spring flood, rise of winter precipitation and increased frequency of thaws. The projected maximum runoff will decrease in the majority of the Neman basin because of warmer Winters with more frequent thaws and consequently less water accumulated in snow cover before flood. Spring flood will also start earlier due to the shorter duration of snow cover. Higher flood risk can be expected only in the western part of Lithuania. The changing climate will also affect the warm season (May-September) runoff. The decrease of May-September runoff in some catchments suggests that in some parts of the Neman basin the hydrological droughts may be more frequent or with higher magnitude then they were in the 1961-2009.
Forecasted water use for the industry of Belarus will grow by 0.5-2.0% per year in case of optimistic scenario of economic development which will also have slight impact on runoff regime. However, it was determined that the impact of climate change will be more important on runoff in the Neman River Basin on the territory of Belarus in comparison with forecasted impact of water use changes. The findings are available from the project website at http://www1.unece.org/ehlm/platform/display/ClimateChange/Neman
The project “River basin management and climate change adaptation in the Neman River Basin” was launched in 2011 and is funded by Finland and Sweden in the framework of ENVSEC. Local implementation in Belarus started in February 2012. It is one of the pilot projects on climate change adaptation in transboundary basins under the UNECE Water Convention (see http://www1.unece.org/ehlm/platform/display/ClimateChange/). The project is implemented in Belarus by UNDP Belarus and covers the territory of the Neman River Basin (Belarus, Lithuania and the Kaliningrad Region in the Russian Federation).
The overall objective of the project is to improve integrated river basin management and transboundary cooperation in times of a changing climate in the Neman River Basin. The project aims to strengthen the capacity of the countries sharing the Neman River to adapt to climate change through supporting dialogue and cooperation on the needed steps to design an adaptation strategy in the transboundary context. It will aim to reach a common understanding on future water availability and water use, taking into account possible climate change impacts. The project also assists Belarus in implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by means of building national capacity for sustainable management of the country’s water resources in the context of climate change.
Within the project the following activities are carried out: assessment of the Neman River Basin’s water resources, taking into account different scenarios of climate change and economic development; water balance calculations; development of proposals regarding the agreed indicators of water bodies’ status and systems for classification of water bodies’ state and parameters; analysis of the monitoring systems; development of recommendations related to adaptation to climate change in the Neman River Basin; and elaboration of an information platform (Internet database), containing data on water resources management