crying wolf for almost a century. But better that, perhaps, than crying “sheep” when the wolves appear.
The Hirsch report has no truck with those who believe in the magic of the markets. “High prices do not a priori lead to greater production. Geology is ultimately the limiting factor”.(18) There are plenty of oil shales, tar sands and coal seams available for turning into liquid fuels, but it would take years and a massive investment before enough came online. Hirsch compares the projections of the oil optimists to those of the gas optimists in the late 1990s, who promised “growing supply at reasonable prices for the foreseeable future” in the US and Canada. Today the same people are bemoaning the deficit. “The North American natural gas market is set for the longest period of sustained high prices in its history, even adjusting for inflation … Gas production in the United States (excluding Alaska) now appears to be in permanent decline”.(19)
“The bottom line,” Hirsch says, “is that no one knows with certainty when world oil production will reach a peak, but geologists have no doubt that it will happen.” Our hopes of a soft landing rest on just two propositions: that the oil producers’ figures are correct, and that governments act before they have to. I hope that reassures you.
1. Energy Intelligence, 2005. High Oil Prices: causes and consequences.
2. From Matthew Simmons, 2005. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Wiley. Quoted by Peter Maass, 21st August 2005. The Breaking Point. New York Times.
3. Adam Porter, 15th July 2005. How much oil do we really have? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4681935.stm
4. Jean Laherrere, 2nd May 2000. Is USGS 2000 Assessment Reliable? http://energyresource2000.com
5. Adam Porter, ibid.
6. J.W. Schmoker and T.S. Dyman, 2000. Chapter RV, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000. http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/chaps/RV.pdf
7. U.S. Geological Survey, 2000. World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Executive Summary. http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/
8. Cited in Aaron Naparstek, 2nd-8th June 2004. The Coming Energy Crunch. New York Press Volume 17, Issue 22.
9. Jean Laherrere, ibid.
10. Chris Vernon, 26th August 2005. OPEC reveal global light sweet crude peaked. http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/08/26
11. George W Bush, 16th March 2005. Press conference. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/03/20050316-3.html
12. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, February 2005. Peaking Of World Oil Production:Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. US Department of Energy. This is now available at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.pdf
13. Richard Heinberg, 30th July 2005. Where is the Hirsch Report?www.counterpunch.com
14. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, ibid.
15. Bjorn Lomborg, 2001. The Skeptical Environmentalist. Cambridge University Press.
16. No author, 10th September 2005. No Safety Net. The Economist.
17. Philip Verleger, the Institute for International Economics.
18. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, ibid.
19. Hirsch et al are citing Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Spring 2004. The Worst is Yet to Come: Diverging Fundamentals Challenge the North American Gas Market. In 2001 they said “The rebound in North American gas supply has begun and is expected to be maintained at least through 2005. In total, we expect a combination of US lower-48 activity, growth in Canadian supply, and growth in LNG imports to add 8.95 Bcf per day of production by 2005.” (R.Esser et al. Natural Gas Productive Capacity Outlook in North America – How Fast Can It Grow? Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. 2001.)