Dr. Mary "Kate" Fisher is a research scientist with CNA with expertise in agriculture, animal disease, homeland security, emergency preparedness and response. She contributed this article to Live Science's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.
The global food system is heavily networked and complex, making it vulnerable to a variety of risks. In 2007 and 2008, the world watched how a modern-era food crisis erupted from the complex interplay of several drivers: droughts in major grain- and cereal-producing regions, increased biofuel production consuming grain supplies, and a range of long-evolving structural policy failures. The disruptions affected developed and developing countries alike, creating political and economic instability and contributing to social unrest.
The International Food Policy Research Institute's "Reflections on the Global Food Crisis" report highlights how significant price spikes for rice (224 percent), wheat (108 percent) and corn (89 percent) — beginning as early as January 2004 — eroded global food security and prompted food aid requests from 36 nations. World Bank estimates indicate that the food crisis pushed 130 million to 155 million people into poverty in 2008 and contributed to civil unrest and "food riots" in more than 40 developing countries.
For food, no nation stands alone
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization noted that those food riots threatened government and regional stability across Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. In recounting lessons learned from the 2007 to 2008 food crisis, the U.S. Department of State highlighted the exacerbating influence of national government actions, including export restrictions, panic buying, stock building and insufficient transparency.
The crisis highlighted the critical importance of understanding how the interdependencies and cascading effects of nations' decisions are likely to influence the global food system — and as revealed by the droughts — how the effects of climate change may exacerbate such challenges.
You don't know what you don't know, or what you can't imagine. Decision-makers often operate with imperfect information in an environment of uncertainty. Taking a "live-and-learn" approach in this setting can prove costly, and can set in motion cascading and long-term complications.
Strategic gaming — where individuals likely to face crises get to act in response to a simulated scenario — allows leaders to "live strategy" and to flesh out the unknown and unimaginable within a risk-free setting. In the process, players identify what works and what doesn't — unconstrained by fear of expensive, or even dangerous, mistakes. Through gaming, players can apply tested approaches and lessons learned to the development and implementation of mitigation and response strategies. In other words, gaming helps reduce the incidence of planning in a vacuum.
On Monday (Nov. 9), leaders representing nations and regions, businesses and international organizations will come together to "play" their way to a more food-secure future. "Food Chain Reaction – A Global Food Security Game" is a policy decision-making game that will lead players to explore issues arising from, and possible responses to, global food system disruptions.
In recognition of the wide-ranging impacts of global food insecurity, Cargill, Mars, the World Wildlife Fund, and the Center for American Progress, with game design by CNA, developed the game to proactively identify potential solutions for addressing the drivers of, and responses to, global food disruptions. During four rounds of play spanning the decades 2020 to 2030, players will be confronted with food price and supply pressure at the intersection of population growth, urbanization, severe weather and social disturbances. In response, players will craft policies, make decisions and take actions that will dynamically influence the state of the world as the game advances. As the chain reaction of impacts tied to their choices becomes apparent, players will experience firsthand how their decisions c