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The researchers found that the worldwide coronavirus case total would have spiked more quickly if travel from the city had had continued unchanged. The restrictions likely delayed significant international spread for about two to three weeks.
However, infected travelers were still flying internationally from other airports in China, since many airlines didn't stop flights until early February. The researchers estimated that there were 101 incidents in which infected travelers from other parts of China visited international destinations and spread the virus.
This tracks with the observed increases in cases in Japan and South Korea in mid- and late-February.
Public-health measures should be paired with travel restrictions
The researchers also found that unless travel restrictions are paired with public-health interventions and behavioral changes that reduce the risk of transmitting the virus, the bans alone are insufficient. The most effective way to slow or halt an infectious-disease epidemic is to reduce transmissibility, they said. This is done via the standard ways to lower the risk of germ spread: washing your hands frequently, avoiding touching your face, and staying away from those who are sick. Educating travelers and the public about the virus helps, too.
"Moving forward, we expect that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest effects, and that transmission-reduction interventions will provide the greatest benefit to mitigate the epidemic," the researchers wrote.
In addition, urging people to self-isolate after potential exposure — staying home and avoiding contact with others — for 14 days will help prevent the disease from spreading. If you do have symptoms, wear a mask to stop germs from your mouth and nose from spreading.
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