since the agreement was signed, Beijing has been increasingly active in Hong Kong affairs both economically and politically. In the case of Taiwan, Beijing says that it is firm on the principle of national unification but flexible on the means to achie v e that objective. The fact that the'PRC finds it difficult to remain out of Hong Kong affairs, however, is a troubling reminder that the communists may indeed interfere in Taiwan affairs--despite Beijing's assurances to the contrary. The experience of Tib et is not reassuring in this regard.
And sixth, the Hong Kong settlement has.added to the pressure on Taipei. The ROC must decide how to relate to Hong Kong after 1997 and how to respond to the "one country, two systems" formula as a possible model for its own future relationship with the mainland. If nothing else, the settlement has reminded Taipei and the rest of the world that the historical question of China's reunification is a dynamic one; not an issue cast forever in concrete. The Hong Kong Agreemen t also is a sword that cuts both ways. If the settlement pressures Taipei on reunification, it puts Beijing on the spot to prove its words by deeds. And it is far more difficult for the PRC to ensure that Hong Kong remains prosperous than for the ROC to re s ist reunification proposals. The possibility still exists that Taiwan could become independent, but the circumstances under which that could occur are becoming increasingly limited because of diminishing international support. Beijing, however, must conti n uously remind itself that the failure of Hong Kong might well be one of those circumstances. My conclusion is that the Hong Kong settlement does not provide a workable model for Taiwan's reunification wiih the mainland. Without question, this is an histor i c period in China's modernization, and unification will have to be addressed as part of that process. Thus, if not a model for Taiwan's reunificationF the Hong Kong settlement is at least an important "test case" for PRC sincerity. The failure of the Hong Kong model would reduce enormously the prospects for Taiwan's peaceful reunification.12