At the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen, China announced that it would reduce its carbon intensity at least 40% by 20201.Achieving this ambitious goal has become an overriding priority for the Chinese government ever since. As a result, the latest 12th Five-Year Plan 2011-2015 (12FYP) has been described as China’s “greenest” five-year plan to date. In August, the government released targets for renewable energy2 that aim to cut its carbon emissions by 17% by 2015 from 2010 levels.
While these national goals are admirable, what is hidden behind the targets is the large number of conventional hydropower in the renewable energy mix. China proposes to add 120GW of new conventional hydropower capacity by 2015, which is equivalent to building one Three Gorges each year for five years, and would mean one of the most relentless dam-building efforts that any nation has ever undertaken. Megadams are planned for already heavily dammed rivers such as the Upper Yangtze and the Lancang, as well as some of China’s wildest glacier-fed rivers, such as the Nu and the Yarlung Tsangpo. Also in the mix are highly controversial – and uneconomic – projects like Xiaonanhai, a pet project of recently deposed politician Bo Xilai3.
Dams are a maladaptation to climate change
Traditional dam planning has always been based on the assumption that future stream-flow patterns will mirror those of the past, but this is no longer true. Climate change will significantly and unpredictably change precipitation patterns. More frequent droughts will make many hydropower projects uneconomic, while more extreme rainfall will increase the siltation of dams (thereby reducing their useful lifetimes) and increase the risk of dam failures and catastrophic flood releases.
“The notion that dams are clean energy is also a misconception, as nearly all dam reservoirs emit greenhouse gases, and some are as highly polluting as fossil fuel plants”
The notion that dams are clean energy is also a misconception, as nearly all dam reservoirs emit greenhouse gases, and some are as highly polluting as fossil fuel plants (the amount depends on their age, carbon inputs, and reservoir profile). Especially in the tropics, dam reservoirs are a globally significant source of methane, one of the most potent greenhouse gases. Even outside of the tropics, some dams can be significant sources of methane, as researchers have found for the draw-down zone at Three Gorges Dam4. Currently measuring reservoir emissions is not required for new projects, even though strong guidelines have been developed by UNESCO and the International Hydropower Association, of which China is a member.
Healthy rivers are critical for supporting life on Earth. Large dams however make it harder for people and ecosystems downstream to adapt to climate change, by reducing water quality and quantity, drying up forests and wetlands, flooding productive land, and destroying fisheries. Free-flowing rivers also play a crucial role in helping trap carbon. Scientists predict that damming the Amazon, the Mekong, the Congo5 and other high flow rivers in warm-ocean areas, could reduce the planet’s ability to mitigate climate change.
China’s dam-building hotspots collide with climate change
“China is home to half of the world’s dams …
…despite the poor record of dam construction and resettlement in China, the ambitious plans for developing huge dam cascades on some of China’s most pristine and diverse river basins in the southwest present serious safety and security challenges”
Katy Yan, International Rivers
China is home to half of the world’s dams. These projects have forced more than 23 million people from their homes and land, and many are still suffering the impacts of displacement. Dams have also taken a huge toll on China’s biodiversity, causing fisheries to suffer and driving endemic species such as the Baiji (Yangtze River dolphin) to extinction.
Despite the poor record of dam construction and resettlement in China, the ambitious plans for developing huge dam cascades on some of China’s most pristine and diverse river b