 none of the existing forces seems strong enough to reach the 40% threshold needed to win under the new electoral law. This means the two parties with the most votes will face off in a second round. Second rounds are never easy to predict; the results often depend on how the supporters of the excluded parties vote. And with the new law the winner takes it all.
At the moment, many in the establishment fear that the populist appeal of the Five Star Movement makes it the most likely winner. Since it reached 25% at the last general election, the movement’s electoral results (and the polls) have been rather consistent. Last May it captured two major cities, Rome and Turin (along with 17 others).
With Renzi’s aura fading, the Democratic Party is potentially without a winning leader and might need some time to recover. Should Renzi remain as party leader or should the party find someone else? It is not an easy choice to make right before an election. Change will send the wrong signal to the electorate: the party is in disarray.
On the other hand, to stay with Renzi will mean the party doesn’t listen. Either way, going to the ballot next February with the current law and in the current climate might mean a political debacle for the party, which attracted 40% of the vote at the last European elections only two years ago.
The centre-right is not in better shape. Elections will certainly represent a gamble for Berlusconi and his Forza Italia party, not long ago the leading force in the country.
Despite unceremoniously stepping down from government in 2011 and then being barred from running for office by law in 2012, Berlusconi is still very much an active and influential player in Italian politics. However, his many troubles with the law, his failing health and his age (he recently turned 80) have all taken a toll on his charismatic leadership.
The controversial entrepreneur’s political demise has sent the shaky remains of its past coalition into a frenzy (especially now, after Renzi’s resignation and the possibility of a new election in the air). Leadership is up for grabs, but it is far from clear who the chosen one will be.
The new leader could be a woman, but will most likely be a man. After more than two decades of Berlusconismo (with its unapologetic defence of male chauvinism), it is unlikely that the centre-right is ready to respect a woman enough to appoint her as a leader – unless of course the woman is very close to Berlusconi.
For a very short time this year, Berlusconi’s eldest daughter, Marina, seemed poised to take the reins of Forza Italia. Still, the idea never really took root. Marina Berlusconi seems much more at ease with running the family’s large business empire than following her father’s political endeavour.
On the other hand, within Forza Italia’s ranks (let alone within its wider, wobbly coalition), there seems to be no viable successor to the flamboyant leader with the winning smile who defined Italian politics for so long. The situation, however, is no longer as static as it might have appeared a few months ago.
Matteo Salvini, the provocative leader of the right-wing Northern League and one of the strongest advocates for new elections after Renzi’s resignation, has recently put forward his candidacy.
Inspired by Donald Trump’s victory in the United States and a fervent admirer of Marine Le Pen in France, Salvini thinks Italy is ready to finally shift decidedly towards the right and elect a leader with strong (some would say extreme) views on immigration, the European Union and the economy. However, with the Northern League polling at just over 12%, Salvini will need the full support of the centre-right if he wants to have any chance to become Italy’s next prime minister.
Though this is not an unthinkable scenario, it is unlikely. Stirred by the success of right-wing populists across Europe and the US, the centre-right might eventually decide to bet on a leader like Salvini. But this would be a complete change of direction, which might ultimately alienate the larger part of the centre-right electorate. T