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Quantum computing's reality fluctuates over time
Updated 5:35 pm, Thursday, July 3, 2014
Scientists have observed something fascinating about the universe: A tiny particle can spontaneously appear from nothing and then disappear as if it had never existed.
The same could be said of quantum computers, a transformative supercomputing technology with the potential to disrupt every industry imaginable. That's why Google, Microsoft, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos have invested millions into the idea. But like those weird particles, quantum computing seems to pop into the public consciousness every few years only to disappear back into the minds of obscure scientists.
"Let me put it this way," said Paul Benioff, a retired physicist with Argonne National Laboratory outside of Chicago who worked on the technology in the early 1980s. "We've made progress, but we've got a long ways to go."
Regular computers are powered by microchips consisting of billions of on and off switches called "bits," represented by the numeral 0 or 1. Quantum physicists have discovered that subatomic matter and energy behave oddly under extreme conditions, allowing particles to exist in two locations at the same time - making them a 0 and 1 simultaneously.
A quantum machine powered by these bits exhibits exponentially more computing power than any ordinary desktop.
With a quantum computer, "You're able to be everywhere at the same time," said Rupak Biswas, deputy director of exploration technology at NASA's Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, which is collaborating with Google on a quantum computing project.
In other words, computers can quickly solve problems that have multiple solutions. So instead of "finding just a good enough answer, you are able to find the best possible answer," Biswas said.
For Google, that means a search engine that can produce even more accurate and relevant search results - even faster.
For Amazon, that means finding even more efficient ways to deliver packages by breaking down the UPS distribution system.
For NASA, that means calculating the best route and method for landing a rover on Mars, taking into account variables like speed, atmospheric conditions and surface terrain.
Defense contractor Raytheon Corp. is already at work on a quantum solution to spying that would shut down communication systems if eavesdropping occurred.
"We're fairly out of the conceptional stage," Biswas said. "Right now, we're building and testing the ecosystem of hardware and software."
But progress has been touch and go. For one thing, the particles are very sensitive to outside movement, retired physicist Benioff said.
"It's always a problem," he said.
Cost is another big obstacle. To make a fully functional quantum computer, one must gather pricey supermaterials to make the bits.
Recent media reports say quantum computers from D-Wave Systems Inc., a company in British Columbia, cost $15 million a pop.
So far, most of the progress has occurred outside the United States.
The founders of the very few venture capital firms bankrolling the technology are Russian. And universities in Canada and Sweden have attracted attention with breakthrough research.
Industry experts say the United States needs to move faster.
"When considering the economic impact of quantum computers, it's important to take into account the potential impact on Silicon Valley," a report by the Centers for Applied Competitive Technologies read.
"If California can position itself to dominate the quantum computing industry before it emerges, then Silicon Valley would be guaranteed to continue its technology dominance for many decades," the report continued.
As it stands now, that dominance is anything but guaranteed. For the United States to claim leadership in quantum computing, the country needs a coordinated national strategy funded by both taxpayers and the private sector (that means you, Silicon Valley) - the same model we're using to map out the human brain and genome and to cure cancer.
"The ultimate payoff would be enormous," Benioff said.