as been the scene of an expanding war between the Pakistani security forces and the Pakistani tribal forces supporting the Taliban. The Pakistani government has unsuccessfully sought since 2009 to extend its control over the area, while the Taliban and its tribal support have expanded their operations to parts of Baluchistan Province through which the TAPI would have to pass. Given this extensive and growing insecurity, the TAPI was practically shelved after the 2002 agreement’s conclusion only to re-emerge in December 2010.
Factors challenging the realization of the TAPI
Despite efforts on the part of the Afghan government and the NATO-led forces, there are no grounds to expect an end to the ongoing Afghan civil war in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, evidence suggests its expansion and thus a worsening of the security situation. Continued rampant poverty, extensive unemployment and low income have resulted in the failure of the Afghan government and its supporters failure to revitalize the Afghan economy. The latter is overshadowed by the informal economy dominated by the production and trafficking of narcotics (mainly opium and its derivatives such as heroin) and associated illegal activities. Against the background of poor infrastructure, the absence of a vibrant and robust economy, the extensive documented human rights abuses by the Afghan government and its rampant corruption have helped delegitimize the Afghan government and lend legitimacy to its armed opponents. Many operational mistakes by the NATO-led forces, leading to the destruction of property and the loss of life for many non-combatant Afghans, have further delegitimized the Afghan government. Under such circumstances, the Taliban and its allies have found a suitable ground for recruitment from among many disillusioned and poverty-ridden Afghans. In the absence of any evidence to expect a major change for the better in Afghanistan, the end of the current civil war and insecurity is simply inconceivable in the predictable future and is therefore a major challenge for constructing the TAPI.
Additionally, there are serious doubts about the availability of enough gas to feed the TAPI, as Turkmenistan seems to have over-committed itself to various gas export projects. Apart from its gas exports via Russia and supplying gas to Kazakhstan, it is now committed to export annually 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China via the Central Asian Gas Pipeline, whose first phase went online in December 2009. As well, the inauguration of the second Turkmen-Iranian gas pipeline (Dolatabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran) in January 2010 provided for increasing its gas exports to Iran from 8 bcm to 20 bcm, to be realized when the second pipeline reaches it maximum capacity. Iran imports gas because, despite having the world’s second largest gas reserves, Iran’s gas consumption (the third largest in the world) outpaces its production (the fourth largest producer in the world) (2008 figure). Finally, Turkmenistan has committed itself to large gas exports to the EU through the proposed Nabucco pipeline. Given Turkmenistan’s large export obligations, it is doubtful whether it can possibly supply the other three TAPI countries even if all its gas field development plans (ongoing and envisaged) are fully realized, itself a doubtful scenario in the near future. It is within this context that the December 2010 agreements should be analyzed.
Four-sided agreement of December 11, 2010
Last December the Afghan (Hamid Karzai), Turkmen (Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov) and Pakistani (Asif Ali Zardari) presidents and India's energy minister (Murli Deora) signed the framework Intergovernmental Agreement and the Gas Pipeline Transmission Agreement in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan’s capital. The agreements provide for constructing the TAPI to supply Afghanistan, Pakistan and India with 33 bcm of Turkmen gas annually. The pipeline’s construction is planned to start in 2012 and to be completed in 2014. The actual cost is unknown—estimates range between $3.5 and $10 billion. Starting from Turkmenistan’s Da