 of the study.
To determine how likely nuclear meltdowns could occur, the research team applied one simple calculation - dividing the total number of operating hours of all civilian nuclear reactors around the world, from the time they were first activated to the present, by the number of nuclear reactor meltdowns that have actually occurred.
They found that out of the total number of operating ours - 14,500 years - there have been four meltdowns: one at Chernobyl and three at Fukushima. As defined by the International Nuclear Event Scale at the IAEA, this translates into one major accident every 3,625 reactor years. Even rounding that up conservatively to 5,000 reactor years, that means the risk of a major meltdown accident is 200 times greater than the estimate for catastrophic, non-contained core meltdowns made by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 1990, the National Security News Wire reported.
It's clean energy, but...
Mainz and his research team did not factor in other variables, such as reactor age and the potential for natural disasters - like an earthquake or, in Japan's case, a tsunami - causing reactor damage and meltdown. If those variables had been factored in, some might conclude the risk of another accident is even greater.
The research team found that Western Europe was particularly vulnerable, due to a higher concentration of nuclear power plants. If an accident were to happen in that region, the study found that as many as 28 million people could be affected; the ratio of population-to-reactors is even higher in southern Asia, so the casualty rate there per million would be worse, the study found.
The nuclear power industry presents a conundrum for environmentalists. On the one hand nuclear power generates zero emissions, but on the other it creates the potential for the kinds of accidents at Chernobyl and Fukushima and, to a far lesser extent, the Three Mile Island incident in the U.S. in 1979, and the resultant damage they caused, or can cause. Then, there is the problem of disposing of the contaminated fuel rods.
Nuclear energy accounts for about 20 percent of the nation's power production.