 “stop button” at 2°C. But scientists have warned about the growing dangers as we get close to 2°C and go beyond it. One of the most riveting portrayals of this is the familiar “burning embers” graphic.
So what 2°C represents is a policy consensus informed by climate science. Accepting that goal was supposed to motivate programs of deep emissions reductions around the world that would help fulfill it and thereby help lessen some of the worst consequences of climate change.
Why the prospects of staying below 2°C look so grim
In a nutshell, the reason we are failing so far to meet our global goal is a complete and utter lack of political will and sense of urgency in major emitting countries. It seems fruitless to point fingers at individual major emitting countries when the fact is that none are doing what they need to do. The stalemate at Doha only further highlights this (although I still hold out hope for a breakthrough in the final hours of the negotiations).
We have the technologies and know the policies that are needed to deliver deep emissions reductions. That is definitely NOT what’s held us back. We know that because we’ve seen several of them adopted around the world, just not at the scale and speed at which we need them to come online.
Why it is all the more urgent that we take all prudent steps to limit further temperature increases
Of course, it is of foremost importance that we put pressure on our political leaders to live up to their promise to limit global temperature increases to no more than 2°C. But if they fail to deliver, let’s remember that climate impacts and risks only increase (in non-linear and sometimes irreversible ways) with temperature increases so it is still important to limit those increases as much as possible. We have to double down, not give up!
Here in the U.S. the political prospects for comprehensive climate and energy legislation seem dim, but nevertheless this call to action from scientists and economists to U.S. policymakers is as relevant today as the day it was first released.
The risks of a ‘Beyond 2°C’ world
As the recent World Bank report on the risks of a 4°C world points out, the burden of climate risks will fall disproportionately on poorer countries. Countries like Bangladesh, India, Mexico, and Indonesia have large populations that will face increasing risks from rising sea levels, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa will be increasingly vulnerable to widespread droughts and food crises.
Rising temperatures will likely also lead to increases in tropical cyclone intensity, which are likely to be felt disproportionately in low-latitude regions (Typhoon Bopha, which has had a catastrophic impact on the Philippines, formed at an unusually low latitude and may be an example of this phenomenon); extreme heat waves, which are likely to affect many parts of the world; and loss of vital ecosystems like coral reefs, which are at risk from ocean acidification.
Even here in the U.S., we have recently experienced a spate of devastating extreme weather events — such as the Drought of 2012 and Hurricane Sandy — that have likely links to climate change. It’s past time that we had in place a serious national plan to lower emissions and build resilience in the face of climate change that is already unfolding. Our obligations to the international community, especially to those countries that are least responsible for generating emissions and yet are facing the most severe consequences of climate change, should also be clear.
World Bank President Dr. Jim Yong Kim’s foreword to the recent report opens with the sentence “It is my hope that this report shocks us into action….” As we teeter on the brink of a ‘beyond 2°C’ world, I hope indeed that the world’s leaders will be galvanized into action.
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