 through direct voting in 299 districts and half are awarded seats according to their party's share of the overall vote. Oftentimes, one party wins more seats in the direct vote than it earns from its share of the overall vote; when that happens, the party is allowed to keep its extra seats, which are called überhangmandate, or overhanging mandates, and the number of seats in parliament changes.
Confused? Probably not as much as the candidates who start popping champagne corks election night only to crash to defeat. In 2002, the CDU looked set to secure a big enough share of the vote to overtake the SPD and oust the incumbent coalition of SPD and Greens. Polling stations closed at 6 p.m., and the CDU started celebrating as television broadcasters published the results of exit polls that seemed to confirm its victory. At 6:47 p.m., Edmund Stoiber, the leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and a Chancellor candidate for both, declared himself the winner. "One thing is clear already," he said, beaming. "The CDU, the CSU we have won the election!" And so it seemed, based on the tally of existing seats the Christian Democrats had snared. But when the official results came in later that night, it became clear that the CDU and CSU parties had actually picked up only one extra seat, while the SPD had claimed four. Even though confusing situations such as this sometimes arise, the major parties resisted moves in July to reform (in essence, abolish) the extra-seat rule, which Germany's Constitutional Court has demanded happen by 2011 at the latest.
So this year's election could be just as exciting, even though the CDU leads the SPD by a much more substantial margin than it did in 2002 by as many as 11 points, according to the most recent polls. Denied a majority with the FDP, Merkel could opt to retain the Grand Coalition or try to rope in an additional party. (Remember the "Jamaica" scenario?) Building a coalition an elaborate dance of horse-trading and arm-twisting could take several weeks.
And the final partnership is of significance far beyond Germany's borders. Under a black-and-gold government, Germany the world's fourth-largest economy and second-biggest exporter could embark on pro-market reforms and an overhaul of its tax, business and employment laws. Black and red means a continuation of the careful (some would say overcautious) politics of the past four years. Whatever the outcome, this election will be more interesting to watch than many in years past, if only to find out which colors will be en vogue this fall in Berlin.