d to in Art 7.14.c (Para 46.b).
The SBI will support international cooperation based on assessments with respect to issues in the Convention that have not yet been adequately addressed. They include the modalities and procedures for the operation and use of the Public Registry in Art 4.12 (Para 29), which should include the nationally determined contributions and the long term national strategies(Para 36), rather than just have them published on the UNFCCC website. The SBI is also to determine the scope and modalities of the periodic assessment of technology development and transfer in para 70for the stocktake (Para 71), and guide capacity building activities.
The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement is to develop modalities for the global stocktaking (Para 102) and this should include consideration of the long term strategies, per capita incomes and emissions as well as emissions since at least 1990 (preferably 1950) to assess how the carbon budget is being used by countries. These modalities will also incorporate how the other five mandated outputs from other bodies are to be considered in the stocktake for developing a global action plan that requires technology research, development and transfer for all the four basic energy sectors (transportation, industry, residential and commercial, and electricity) to meet the ‘emissions gap’ identified in the ‘facilitative dialogue’ in 2018.
This interlocked set of guidelines covers areas where the Convention, negotiated in 1992, has evolved to start a dialogue on how to make the transition to sustainable development. While the subsequent reviews, stocktaking, compliance and interaction with non-State actors will determine the template for international cooperation the dialogue in 2018 will provide clarity how national contributions will meet the ‘emissions gap’.
Meeting the ‘Emissions Gap’ requires fairness and ambition
In 2018, there will be a ‘facilitative dialogue’ to take stock of the collective mitigation efforts of countries and it will shape future national contributions. For example, while China has indicated a peaking date of 2030, the United States and the European Union have not indicated any date for rapidly reaching the zero-emission level.Studies show that the current pledges of developing countries go far beyond their “fair share” of responsibilities for addressing climate change.
The Decision accompanying the Agreement introduces the notion of concentration of emissions in the atmosphere and sharing the global carbon budget. It notes, in para 17 that for a 2°C pathway 2030 emissions would need to be reduced from 55 giga tonnes so far pledged by countries down to 40 giga tonnes. Intense deliberations can be expected onwhether emissions should be defined as current emissions and percentage reductions, in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, or emissions over a period of time, in accordance with the definition of Emissions in the Convention and the Objective of the Convention, which is recognised in the Agreement, whichconsiders concentration of emissions and not absolute or current emissions. All these elements should be mandatory elements in each of the national contributions.
There is also a distinction between mitigation pledges and aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature, and it is the latter that concerns the stocktake and the dialogue in 2018. Initially, the trajectory of emissions since 1990, which have already been verified by the secretariat, should be provided to the ‘facilitative dialogue’ and to the stocktaking under Article 11, and later extended to 1950, to cover two-third of total global emissions since the Industrial Revolution. We also know that contributions to current global emissions differ widely - China (27 per cent), the United States (15 per cent), the European Union (10 per cent), and India (7 per cent). Two-third of global emissions occurred after 1950, one-third after 1990 and, for example, at the time of peaking in 2005, US emissions were about 15 percent above their 1990