 level. In the absence of allocation criteria the stocktaking should consider how the carbon budget is being used to operationalise fairness.
Per-capita emissions also need to be considered as they best reflect the requirement of comparing different national circumstances and capacities or stages and type of development. In 2014 the world emitted 4.9 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person and staying below 2°C means reducing that to 4.5 tonnes by 2020, and then to 0.5 tonnes by 2050. It is possible to reduce emissions by modifying some trends without affecting wellbeing in general. Weknow that countries with similar standards of living assessed in terms of income, life expectancy, education and health care have very different levels of per-capita emissions. In the United States each person was responsible, on average, for 17 tonnes of carbon dioxide; Japan emitted fewer than 10 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person; and, the European Union 6.6 tonnes.Consequently, the Agreement provides for emissions decreasing sharply after peaking as these countries have a greater capacity than countries which have yet to eradicate poverty.
Aggregate stocktaking for enhanced international cooperation
Beginning in 2023, and every five years afterwards, the COP is to “take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving” it’s Purpose and the long term goals, in the “light of equity and the best available science” (Art 14). Therefore, equity should be integrated in the science itself rather than treat it as an add-on later.
The criteria to adopt for considering ‘equity’ will be one of the most contentious. This should be related to national circumstances. One indicator is transport emissions, which are the fastest growing emissions worldwide, and directly related to national circumstances. For example, the United States has eight times the number of automobiles than India with one-third the population. A similar ratio is found in terms of per-capita emissions (eight times) and per-capita incomes (nine times in PPP terms). Clearly, per-capita data is an effective and objective indicator that links national circumstances, capacities and equity.
The Paris deal does not represent a transformational change in the global efforts to meet the challenge of climate change. It only modifies how countries approach the problem, and it is still not clear what a low-carbon world would look like. By putting solutions at the heart of the debate, attention now turns to distribution issues and to the obstacles and policy choices.
Former Director United Nations Climate Change Secretariat.
Defined by the IPCC as ‘Sustainable development (SD): Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987).