ontinuously flagged by the FATF against Pakistan, relates to terror financing and action against proscribed persons and entities. This is where it has been failing and this is where it has to deliver. Under a risk-based approach, critical failing in even one criterion can lead to blacklisting. In 2019 Pakistan declared victory by remaining on the Grey list as Indian efforts to get it blacklisted were defeated. In 2020 the tone has changed. Greylist is hurting Pakistan and remaining on Greylist is not an option. There is increased optimism In Pakistan that blacklisting is off the table and exiting grey list could happen in 2021. This optimism may also have its roots in muted discussion in India on the blacklisting of Pakistan by FATF.
As a policy, India has no formal talks with Pakistan on any issue especially terrorism. India knows that the subject of terrorism is beyond the sphere of influence of Pakistan’s elected government. Thus, it is pointless to talk to the selected Government. Indian Army has taken proactive and punitive actions against terrorists in J&K on Line of Control and beyond in Pakistan. Indian Air Force also conducted airstrikes in Pakistan on terrorist Camps. These political decisions backed by effective execution by armed forces have not only discredited Imran Khan’s Government but more importantly, Pakistan Army’s image in its own country is dented. Diplomatically India has made a concerted attempt to expose Pakistan’s complicity in employing terrorism as state policy at all world forums. FATF which aims is to prevent illegal activities of ML/CFT/Proliferation financing and the harm they cause to society has also been kept informed of grave threat posed by Pakistan to international finance.
Way Forward for India.
FATF operates on a well-defined charter and guidelines. India must step up its efforts to report on Pakistan to FATF and address all issues related to FATF charter and guidelines being flouted by Pakistan.
(a) Joint Experts’ virtual meeting from 23-25 November must be utilised to inform the experts regarding emerging trends in Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism e.g. use of drones to supply arms and ammunition across the borders.
(b) India must keep highlighting the dual governance system of Pakistan. Democracy and democratically elected Government is a farce. It is run by Army and the selected (elected) PM is a rubber stamp. Pakistan is a terrorist state is a fact known to the world.
Osama was eliminated in Pakistan. General Musharraf has accepted that they supported militant organisations. Atrocities in Baluchistan, oppression of minorities, women and weaker section is well known. Governance is weak and law enforcement pathetic. Media cannot speak, the judiciary is tamed, and the police is draconian. The economy is faltering. Corruption is rampant. In matters related to terrorism, the elected government has no authority. Thus the elected government is not competent to give any commitment. Effectiveness of laws passed and their implementation on the ground by on-site visit must be ensured.
(c) Vigorous collection of data and its presentation to all international organizations on Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism, drug money, and its linkages to terrorism will have to continue.
(d) Pakistan has the capacity to meet FATF standards but is unwilling to do so. It is a nuclear state and is involved in proliferation of WMDs. It is heavily involved in drug money. FATF must view Pakistan as a comprehensive threat and it cannot be treated at par with countries like Mauritius, Zimbabwe, etc
(e) Pakistan is a case study to appreciate the challenges faced by the FATF. Having faced close scrutiny, it has avoided effective implementation of the recommendations on one hand and avoided blacklist on the other. Pakistan blackmails the world that dead Pakistan is more dangerous than surviving one. This threat works. Weakness in the FATF categorization structure of the so-called white, grey, and black does not permit a flexible and graduated response. Pakistan is also aware of this dilemma, that the only op