- Matt Ridley's very good presentation it made me think about Confirmation bias. Seems in Climate Science there is too much unknowns and we weak human beings don't like uncertainty, so emotion leaps to fill in the gap and that's where the confirmation bias comes in. We need to be strong and stick to the science
- "Climate Science" = science + emotion => confirmation bias => irrational extrapolation
- Confirmation bias helps explain "green mathematics", whereby any negative is "certain to be the worst" i.e. temperature rise, sea-level rise etc. And any positive also is certain to be at the extreme end.. apparently windfarms and PV solar are incredibly efficient and will make us lots of money.
- The problem is when emotion is added onto it. With climate science it is often difficult to separate out what is science and what is emotion.
- We like science, science is good.
... Make a theory take measurements;
.. try to destroy your own theory.
...Test test test
.. does it reproduce ?
- The theory of "Greenhouse effect" that's science,
- comparing in a controlled way temperature measurements at specific points from year to year that's science
.. putting it all together into models which don't produce reliable reporoducable results is not science,
- adding on emotion and extrapolation on extrapolation is not science.
- rephrasing :(
- emotion leads to confirmation bias ..the key thing is to stick to the science and keep the emotion out of it emotion leads to confirmation bias ..
- The problem is often when we should have the strength to say "we don't know" emotion leaps to fill it the void.... Be strong )