eague park, are favorable for home runs being hit. Twenty-four hour forecasts are available in addition to live weather.
Two approaches were combined to arrive at a “home run favorability” index, which the app displays on a scale of 0 to 10 (least-to-most favorable). The first approach was to analyze actual weather conditions and home run data over several seasons (Citizens Bank Park was chosen as the venue for this study). The second approach uses a theoretical, physics-based model that determines the distance a ball will travel based on the temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure.
The Citizens Bank Park study yielded some interesting, but perhaps not too surprising, findings. First, temperatures and dew points had a clear trend line relationship with home runs, as generally more home runs were hit in hot and humid air than colder, less-humid air. It was also found that 13-percent more home runs were hit when the wind was blowing out than other wind conditions. Additionally, 6-percent more home runs were hit in the daytime as compared to nighttime games.
The app index results produced by Home Run Weather in the 2012 season were very encouraging with respect to average home runs hit per game. The low home run favorability index values (0-3) had an average of 1.38 home runs per game for the season. The moderate index values (4-7) had an average of 1.95. And the high values (8-10) had an average of 2.47 home runs per game. In addition, the home run favorability index correlated very well with average total runs scored per game. The low home run favorability index values (0-3) had an average of 7.07 total runs per game for the season. The moderate index values (4-7) had an average of 8.08. And the high values (8-10) had an average of 9.45 total runs per game.
Whether you’re a fan at the park who’s interested in a home run forecast, a spirited fantasy owner or baseball analyst, Home Run Weather should provide some useful information and conversation material. For more details, visit The SI Weather website.
Paul Dorian is a Meteorologist with The SI Organization, Inc. He received Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degrees in meteorology from Penn State University and has also worked as a Meteorologist for NASA.