 two; only then can the real efficiency of the government’s measures be evaluated.
At the end of 2014, the Russian statistical agency Rosstat published its updated demographic forecast through 2050. The forecast confirms that demographics will remain the biggest political, social, and economic challenge for Russia in the coming decades. Moreover, contrary to earlier estimates, the situation will not stabilize by 2030-2035.
Three scenarios, all migration-based
Three scenarios were provided in the forecast (Chart 2): i) a continuation of current trends (low), ii) a more realistic appraisal of the effectiveness of the measures taken to date (medium), and iii) an outcome reflective of the goal Russian demographic policy to 2025, the authorities’ dream scenario (high). The first scenario suggests Russia’s population will shrink by 20 percent over the next 35 years; the second that it will remain at the current level; and the third that the population will increase by 15 percent. In these three scenarios, Rosstat used not only a different demographic hypothesis, but different migration assumptions. The first scenario assumes that annual inward immigration over the forecast period will gradually decline from 270,000 people a year at the start of the period to 170,000 by the end. In total, Russia’s population will grow by 7.7 million people in the next 35 years due to immigration. In the “current-level” scenario, the annual immigration gain increases to 385,000 people by 2030 and then gradually grows to 400,000 per year. This results in an additional 13.6 million people over the period. In the “dream” scenario, annual immigration increases rapidly up to half-a-million people a year by 2022, and then to 555,000 by 2030, holding at that level until 2050. This would mean almost 19 million more people from immigration.
Chart 2. Population of Russia: Three Scenarios
Are there so many potential migrants?
It seems that neither the high migration variant projection, nor the “current-level” projection, are very realistic. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, today there are about 11 million foreign citizens in Russia, 80 percent of whom are citizens of the countries comprising the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Table 1). This reflects the main requirement for massive foreign labor in Russia, knowledge of the Russian language.
To reach the levels forecast in the latter two scenarios, provided that the CIS countries will continue to supply 80 percent of immigrants, the number of citizens of those countries living in Russia should increase by 2.5 and 3.2 times, respectively. That is hard to believe, since the potential of attracting additional migrants from the two major sources—Ukraine and Uzbekistan—seems to have been exhausted.
After the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the eastern Ukraine, political relations between Russia and Ukraine are seriously damaged. In the coming decades Ukraine itself will pass through similar demographic processes as Russia, and its potential as a supplier of labor will decline. In addition, with Ukraine increasingly integrating with Europe, Ukrainian labor will be more inclined to look to the countries of Eastern Europe as destinations for pursuing employment opportunities.
Table 1. CIS Citizens Living in Russia as % of the Population of the Country
Source: Federal Migration Service of Russia; www.worldometers.info
Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is itself entering a period of rapid demographic change, with reduced fertility and a sharp decline in population growth that will limit its capabilities for the export of labor. Moreover, if Uzbekistan continues to benefit from its natural resources and closer ties to China its own labor needs may compete with Russia’s. Gradually, the main marginal supplier of migrants in Russia will be Tajikistan, but its resources should not be exaggerated—today, every second Tajik male of working age lives in Russia, while the overall increase of the population of the country by 2050 will be about 7 million people. This means that Russia needs to seek m