A referendum is not (and should not be comparable to) a general election; they are two different kinds of electoral instruments. The former asks the people to express their opinion on one or more issues (usually by means of a yes or no option). The latter instead allows them to choose which leader or political party should govern the country.
Yet the line between the two is often blurred. Especially when the people are asked to vote on particularly controversial issues, and after a hard-fought campaign, it is not uncommon for the outcome of a referendum to be interpreted as a de facto vote of confidence for or against the incumbent government. It happened last June with Brexit in the UK, and it has happened now in Italy.
On Sunday, over 19 million Italians, about 59% of the voters, rejected a controversial package of constitutional reforms supported by the incumbent government. The “Yes” camp did much worse than expected, barely breaking over 40%. It received 7 million fewer votes than the “No” supporters.
The turnout was over 65%, 10 points down on the 2013 general election, but more than enough to make the vote legitimate.
The people have spoken, loud and clear. So must the government resign?
For Prime Minister Matteo Renzi the answer to the question seemed clear. As promised, soon after the outcome of the referendum was announced, he resigned. Standing before the press, “with a lump in his throat” because, as he admitted, “we are not robots”, he took full responsibility for the unequivocal defeat.
Renzi’s strategic mistake, his insistence during the whole campaign on making the result personal, has effectively reduced the possibility of the current government staying on to almost nil.
The crisis is officially open. What comes now is difficult to say.
There are three possible scenarios, all involving Italian President Sergio Mattarella. The constitution grants him the power to do one of the following:
- ask Renzi to stay on, with a new mandate;
- appoint a new prime minister who needs then to secure a majority in the parliament to carry on until the current term ends (January 2018);
- dissolve the parliament and call for a general election (to be held in a few months, most likely between February and April).
The most unlikely scenario is a second mandate for Renzi. Though he has now agreed to stay on a little longer until the new budget is approved, his resignation is final. It would make little sense for him to carry on without a full electoral mandate.
The second scenario, however, as I hinted in my last article, would not surprise anyone. The only problem might be to agree on the choice of the new prime minister. At the moment, there seems to be no one with enough credibility and bipartisan support to be able to govern for the next 16 months, let alone pass some much-needed reforms.
Someone from the existing coalition might be the easiest choice (though not the most popular). Among the favourites are Pier Carlo Padoan (the incumbent minister for economy), Graziano Delrio (minister for infrastructure), Piero Grasso (Senate president), or even Laura Boldrini (president of the Chamber of Deputies) – though it is unlikely, the moment might be right for Italy’s first woman prime minister.
The third scenario is for Mattarella to call the election, one year ahead of time. But facing an election with the current electoral law is a gamble not many in the parliament would want to take. Though the current parliament approved the new law in 2015, it was mostly the product of Renzi’s government and many MPs still think it needs to be amended or, worse, replaced with a brand new one. Or the existing law might be the harbinger of disaster at the next election.
Who will win the next election?
Before the referendum result, voting intention polls showed the Five Star Movement and Renzi’s Democratic Party locked in a virtual tie, more or less, at 30%. While, the centre-right coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi lagged few percentage points behind. Some polls indicated the Five Star as favourite, others the Democratic Party.
In any case,