The probability that people percept may be different from the real one due to a number of factors, including the form in which their are presented, their context and biases (due to misinformation or wishful thinking).My question if there is any research showing the subjective probability judgement of being correct ($p_\mathrm{perceived}$) as a function of actual probability of correctness ($p_\mathrm{real}$) for situation were people estimate the chance that they are right in a test/trial (e.g. in a two answers forced choice task)?Also, I am interested mathematical models with foundation in experimental data.
Perception of probability of being right
mathematical psychology