Research and Markets
announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.’s new report “2Q10 Malaysia
Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2014: Malaysia will have 42.5 Million Mobile
Subscribers in 2014 with DiGi Taking Market Share of 26.7%” to their offering.
2Q10 Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2014: Malaysia will have 42.5
Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with DiGi Taking Market Share of 26.7%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Malaysia provides over 50 operational and financial
metrics for the Malaysian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in
the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to
2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003
and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Malaysia include: Maxis Mobile
Services Sdn. Bhd., Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad, and DiGi Telecommunications Sdn.
Bhd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for
one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile
operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our
forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.
These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that
estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country;
and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Malaysia’s mobile operator space
* +11.5% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
* Subscriber growth in the Malaysian wireless market remains strong, but it is
gradually slowing down. The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009
was 11.5%, down from 15.7% in 4Q.2008.
* At the operator level, Celcom enjoyed the fastest subscriber growth in the
country in 4Q.2009. Celcom’s subscriber growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was 15.8%, up
from 21.6% in 4Q.2008.
* Subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Maxis and DiGi were 9.4% and 9.3%
respectively in 4Q.2009.
ARPU levels continue to decline in Malaysia
* -6.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
* The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -6.0% (YoY) to reach MYR 54.56
* Monthly ARPU at Maxis was MYR 55 in 4Q.2009, down -6.8% from MYR 58 in
* ARPU growth rates (YoY) at Celcom and DiGi were also negative at -3.8% and
-7.5% respectively in 4Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase at Maxis and DiGi
* +1.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009
* The industry MOU/Sub was 203 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +1.5% from 200
minutes in 4Q.2008.
* DiGi leads Malaysias operators with its average MOU/Sub of 229 minutes per
month, and MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of 4.1% in 4Q.2009. MOU/Sub at Maxis and Celcom
were 181 and 209 minutes and per month respectively in 4Q.2009.
Positive EBITDA growth continued across operators in the latest quarter
* +3.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
* The industry average EBITDA growth declined from 15.0% in 4Q.2008 to 3.6% in
* At the operator level, Celcom enjoyed the highest EBITDA growth at 14.3% in
4Q.2009, up from 8.9% in 4Q.2008.
* On the other hand, the EBITDA growth rate at Maxis decreased to -1.1% in
4Q.2009, down from 38.2% in 4Q.2008.
So what is IEMRs Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Malaysia to reach 42.5 million in 2014
* Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total subscribers in
Malaysia will increase from 30.1 million in 2009 to 42.5 million in 2014.
* Our forecasting model predicts that the number of subscribers at Maxis,
Celcom, and DiGi will reach approximately 16.4 million, 14.7 million and 11.3
million respectively by the end of 2014.
Maxis’s market share will be declining over the next several years
* Our model forecasts that DiGi will see its market share increase from 25.6% in
2009 to 26.7% in 2014.
* On the other hand, Maxis will see its market share decline from 40.8% in 2009
to 38.7% in 2014.
Declining trend in ARPUs will continue over the next five years in Malaysia’s
mobile operator space
* Our model predicts that all operators will see their ARPUs decrease over the
next five years.
* We forecast that Celcom’s monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 54.50 in 2009 to
approximately MYR 49 in 2014.
* We expect that DiGi’s monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 55 in 2009 to about
MYR 50 in 2014.
Maxis will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Celcom and DiGi over the
next five years
* We expect that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/service revenue) will remain in the range of 46% – 47% over the forecast
period, 2009 – 2014.
* We think that Maxis will continue to have higher EBITDA margin than Celcom and
DiGi over the next five years. According to our model, EBITDA margins at Maxis,
Celcom and DiGi will be approximately 52%, 42%, and 44% respectively in 2014.
* Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd.
* Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad
* DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd.
For more information visit
Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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