Asylum boats will keep coming: Aristotle
Asylum seeker boats are likely to continue arriving in Australian waters even once the Government implements all the recommendations of the expert panel, according to one of its members.
Paris Aristotle was part of the three-member panel commissioned by the Government to come up with a new border protection policy aimed at stopping boat arrivals and establishing a more effective processing system for dealing with refugee claims.
The Government has already begun acting on the report's recommendations, but Mr Aristotle doubts the boats will ever stop.
"I'm assuming that we'll continue to see boats coming for a while," Mr Aristotle told ABC Radio National.
"I'm not sure you'll ever stop boats completely. I just think the way in which things function around the world now is that I don't think that's necessarily a realistic option.
"But hopefully you would see a very sharp reduction in the number of people who are risking their lives to get protection in Australia, at the same time as getting a very sharp increase in the number of people who are receiving protection in Australia through regional processing in Indonesia and Malaysia and up in Pakistan."
Immigration Minister Chris Bowen yesterday signed the paperwork necessary to send asylum seekers to Nauru, a move that is currently being debated by the Parliament.
Once that has been approved, the Government expects to send the first group of asylum seekers to the island nation later this week.
"You won't see a particularly large first transfer, but it'll be followed by other transfers after that," Mr Bowen has told ABC NewsRadio.
Initially, the asylum seekers will be held in a quickly constructed tent city, while more permanent facilities are built.
'Closing down sale'
More than 2,000 asylum seekers have arrived in Australia since the Government announced its intention to reopen detention centres in Nauru and Papua New Guinea, which virtually equals the total capacity of both facilities.
Once the centres are fully operational, Nauru will hold 1,500 while Manus Island will accommodate 600 people.
Mr Bowen says it is clear there has been "no effect" on boat arrivals since the policy was announced, but he is confident that will change.
"People smugglers (have been) out there saying to asylum seekers: 'look you'd better get in quick, the situation is changing and we can get you there'."
"Now people smugglers will spin and will lie ... to make money.
"They are trying to paint this as a closing down sale across the region."
And Mr Bowen says there will not be any blanket exemptions regarding who will be sent to Nauru, because the people smugglers will try to exploit any loophole.
"Everybody is being sent to Nauru under the Act unless they are exempted by me as Minister because of any particular vulnerabilities or for any other operational reason," he said.
"We cannot allow people smugglers to be out there saying, 'look, if you send your children, we'll get them there'."
It is a view supported by policy experts, including Mr Aristotle.
"If young people are provided with a general exemption from this, then the high likelihood is that smugglers will fill boats with young people and therefore we run the risk of boats with young people on them sinking and drowning," he said.