Philippine experts say the possibility of winning not sure did not dare to send troops to the South China Sea
the information Photo: Chinese maritime surveillance 75 boat
the Philippine side to speculate whether China sent troops
judgment will not be armed conflict with China to maintain high-pitched
newspaper reporter/Yang Huan Foreign media offensive
newspaper reporter/Yang Huan Foreign media offensive
around the Huangyan Island public opinion struggle to upgrade, will not hurt a hair to the Philippines. On the contrary, China fell should weigh the embarrassing situation, to promote economic development and political stability, China is unlikely to in the South China Sea to take military action. “This is the defense experts in the Philippines, Art Villa Santana recently addressed to the Philippine Daily Inquirer “commentary. The basic judgment of the article is: as long as China does not send troops to the Philippines to mobilize international opinion to continue on the Huangyan Island “to discuss the axiom”.
the Philippines Huangyan Island confrontation lasted more than 20 days, the Philippines has repeatedly challenged the patience bottom line, saying one to strive to resolve through diplomatic channels, the action has continued to be heated to the situation, and even threatened to collect Chinese bullying the weak evidence, so that the international court ruling. Experts on the “News of the World”, the error of the Philippines is estimated that China’s determination to safeguard national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, if the Philippine side insisted to make the escalation of the dispute, the Chinese army will need to act with diplomacy.
Philippine media said the Chinese use of force “no clout”
April 30, 2009, “Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper website published a defense expert A Special Villa Santa’s commentaries. Villa Santa complex surrounding the situation, and the arduous nature of the economic construction as well as the sensitive period of the change of government, the three major restricting factor for China’s Huangyan Island troops. On the other hand, China sent troops to the South China Sea, does not account for the geographical advantage. By the Philippines’ control of the Kalayaan Islands and over 1000 sea miles away from the naval base in Zhanjiang, China, Chinese warships need two days to arrive, wait for the Fleet of the Chinese navy to do the war prepared, the Philippines and its allies have long open up to the surface.
article analysis is that, if China is to send troops, we must ensure victory, otherwise it will not only lose face in the international, but also provoke a domestic backlash. But for now, China is still not ready to send troops prepared, the main concern is the possibility of U.S. military intervention in the case of winning local wars of the South China Sea, China’s “not sure”. The reason for all kinds of Chinese did not dare to send troops to the South China Sea, the authors suggest that the Philippine government to maintain a high-pitched attitude, fully mobilize the public opinion offensive, the international community together to condemn the behavior of China, so China will naturally shrink “.
Philippine military also bearish on the possibility of Chinese troops in the South China Sea. May 1, the Philippine Defense Ministry spokesman Peter Jiawei Si publicly stated that he noticed many voices argued that China could send troops to the exercise of sovereignty over the South China Sea, but he believes that these statements can not represent the position of the Chinese military. “Do not forget, there are many Chinese people are peace-loving.”
careful test is afraid of war
The Philippines is the reason why now so arrogant, very important reason is that he thinks we will not take military action to the South China Sea, Philippine Foreign Affairs of China to solve the efforts of the Huangyan Island, showing a certain degree of contempt. “Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Asia Pacific and global strategy Xu Liping, researcher at the Institute, “News of the World”. “Obviously, the Philippines, miscalculated the determination and will to defend its territorial sovereignty, China’s overall situation and the attitude as a weak and compromise; I believe that if the Philippine side has repeatedly pressed on, can not fight back, do not rule out small-scale armed the potential for conflict. “
recent days, China’s senior military series of Huangyan Island event sound, causing the outside world. Chinese Defense Minister Liang, recently told the media that the settlement of disputes require diplomacy first, but he also said that military action according to the needs of the country’s diplomacy. Is docked in Hong Kong, China, People’s Liberation Army Navy 171 escort fleet commanders, the South China Sea Fleet deputy chief of staff Major General Lee, Hung said, once the Central Military Commission to make specific decisions on events in Huangyan Island, the Navy will be duty-bound to complete the task.
experts pointed out that the army the most important functions is to safeguard the country’s territorial integrity and national security. Under the escalating situation in the South China Sea disputes, the Chinese army is obliged to maintain the country’s territorial integrity is inviolable. “News of the World”, an unnamed military experts pointed out that the Philippine media said the South China Sea, “China’s military power beyond the reach of purely hat and no cattle, because the Philippines count on the United States backing behind Xisha sea battle in 1974, China’s equipment inferior to South Vietnam, still recover the Paracel Islands. China’s military power much stronger than the year “is fully capable to defend its sovereignty”.
Some analysts believe that the Philippine side nonsense that China did not send troops, testing China’s strategic bottom line, in fact, the Philippine side is fully aware of their military strength, but also fear that China’s military action. In China, a series of tough stance on the issue of Huangyan Island and three times summoned the Philippine Embassy in China, charge d’affaires, Philippine President Corazon Aquino III April 29 claim, I believe China will not take military action in the Philippines and promised to adhere to be resolved through diplomatic means confrontation. In the confrontation between the two sides of the waters, since the withdrawal after the warships in the Philippines did not come back, the Philippines strategy is confrontation between the control level in the public opinion war.
complain behind the calculations
“the Philippine Star newspaper reported on April 29, del Rosario, Philippine Foreign Minister disclosed that the Philippine government solve the problem of Huangyan Island has developed three sets of programs. First, the program, continue to advocate for the South China Sea dispute resolution put forward last year by the Philippine side, “peace, freedom, friendship and cooperation zone”; program is to strengthen consultation with other ASEAN countries, and seek to resolve the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea within the framework of international law; Option III is to strengthen national defense construction, in order to protect the safety of the Philippines “territory”.
April 24, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines claims to determine the formal invitation to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to court, within a week of China’s send a message. Chinese Foreign Ministry Secretary edge of the sea, Deng Zhonghua, 28, met with CAI Fu Chiung, charge d’affaires of the Philippine Embassy in the Philippine side made solemn representations to the Philippines territorial sovereignty over Huangyan Island submitted to international arbitration. However, the Philippines did not stop at signs. Philippine Minister of Justice, De Lima told the media on April 30, President Aquino has asked the Justice Department and other relevant agencies to seriously study the international law of the sea, refused to accept the Huangyan Island resort to international arbitration case in China, ” forced to solve the problem. ”for the behavior of the Philippines requested the court, the modern hospital in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania researcher at the Institute CHEN Qinghong think this is purely a farce. He told the News of the World, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to deal with maritime delimitation disputes, for example, the exclusive economic zone of the two countries overlap, asked the court to adjudicate the division of waters “. However, he said, the waters divide and territorial integrity and sovereignty are two different things, the Philippines intends to tamper with the concept, so that Huangyan Island complicate matters. “The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea also provides the premise of the implementation of the arbitration, must obtain the consent of both parties, if the party does not agree, the arbitration is invalid.”
Xu Liping, also said the Philippines is not the first time the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea “complain”, “uttered territorial disputes with Malaysia, but in the end nothing”. Know that their little chance of winning, but also insisted while for Xu Liping believes that the Philippines has long planned a game of chess. He said, “News of the World”, the Philippine side is intended to Huangyan Island sizzling confrontation into an international event, to intervene to create the conditions for third-party forces, at the same time to create a strong push “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea,” the atmosphere, in the opinion on constraint maintenance of territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests of the action.
CHEN Qinghong said Arroyo in office and actively develop the Sino-Philippine relations, the government’s China policy of Aquino III,
Philippine domestic public opinion there are differences
a 180-degree turn, has a deeper reason behind it. First, the United States to return to the Asia-Pacific to the Philippines to provide the possibility of deepening the Philippine-US relations; Second, the Aquino III, the government is the political liquidation of the Arroyo family, tough with China is the need for political struggle; Third, the Philippine government executives those who hold the shares of the Philippine oil and gas group, ignoring the relationship between China and the Philippines for their own gain.
However, in the opinion of “Guangming Daily” reporter in the Philippines Fu Zhigang, with Huangyan Island event continues to ferment, a lot of insight in the Philippines began to realize that blindly contend China is not rational practices. “News of the World”, said the Philippine columnist Gu Ban Branch recently written that the Philippines need to determine their own role to play, do not shameless attempt to play the United States I, in particular, the performance is not involved this time the South China Sea storm good policy, it may not be the best way to resolve. “Some senators recently said that the confrontation is not the answer.”
Fu Zhigang make Philippine official and ordinary people in the South China Sea issue be treated separately. He observed that some of the extreme views of the network, the majority of people in the Philippines to focus on more or housing prices and employment and livelihood issues. He remembered the confrontation occurred about a week, he went to a shop to repair air conditioning, a roomful of people are together in front of the television watching the news, the news content is the confrontation of the Huangyan Island. Fu Zhigang asked a young man: “You are very concerned about the incident?” The young man replied: “not very concerned about, just in broadcast television, simply look at the young man also said he was most concerned economic news, the latest rise in unemployment so that he worried about.
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