In past years, Iran has continued working on its nuclear program and trouble on this issue is still present. But Iran's nuclear program itself is not the sticking point. Who would complain about an Iranian government of convinced pacifists willing to use nuclear energy? Hence, the issue is the regime and its ideology.
There is no doubt of the programs' military component. Evidence of this includes enrichment activities, camouflage tactics, and ballistic missiles. To function, medium range missiles need to carry a warhead. Activities, which are 100% civilian, have no need for camouflage. Ahmadinejad and his supporters are working towards having the 'red button' and they would not be unlikely to push it.
By trying to talk about how much uranium Iran should be allowed to enrich and on what level, the current approach fails to address the real problem. Ahmadinejad's regime will not lose its will to work on 'the bomb'. Furthermore, previous negotiations were little more than unsuccessful talks about the circumstances and contents of negotiations. Western politicians' statements, confirming their will to talk to the Mr. Ahmadinejad about how to negotiate the nuclear program, will be useless. If the Iranians took negotiations seriously, US intelligence in 2009 would not have found the new enrichment facility in Ghom.
But the show must go on. Only to keep Teheran thinking, Western governments would not reveal their real intentions. To solve the problem, there is no need to talk with Ahmadinejad. It is time to talk about him and act. But, solutions can only be found inside Iran. Military actions are not a valid choice. The consequences would be too drastic and the impact not enduring. What is bombed can be rebuilt, even if it takes some time. Forced regime change would not be an enduring solution. How would the Iranians react if they had a government imposed by the West? Take a look at Iraq or Afghanistan.
Issues inside Iran are to be solved by Iranians themselves. Thus, the question is not how to play on the field. It is how to coach the right teams' players. As the 2009 Green Revolution shows, the team the West should support, offers a number of excellent players and has serious chances to win the proverbial cup.
First of all, the Westerners seriously have to accept the Iranians' pride. Developing and controlling nuclear energy is a question of status for Iran. Thus, nobody should question Iran's right to use nuclear power and to enrich uranium. Additionally, a US or Israeli air strike should be denied absolutely. Besides its non-enduring impact, Iranians, who fear a military attack on their country, would be more likely to support their current regime. This is not in the interests of the West.
Support for political opponents of Ahmadinejad is in Western interests. Such actors and their political agendas have to be recognized and accepted by the West. The more anti-Ahmadinejad activists become known to the outside world, the harder it will become for the regime will be able to oppress their activities. You cannot jail, dispose or even torture famous people, because the international response would be too high to pay.
Besides the political support, coaching the whole range of anti-Ahmadinejad media is the essential mission. Not everybody has internet access. So, press and TV are needed for `offliners´. Radio is critical to reach people far from the cities. Where newspapers and TV are not available, battery-powered radios are the only information source. Iranians, seeking technical advice or material support, have to receive it.
The internet is a top priority. Numbers of Iranian internet users are growing. Sharing information online is the easiest way to inform the world. Thus, Iranian blogs should be promoted. Bloggers should be encouraged to share more information and views of what is happening currently in the country. Especially by using videos and social networks like Facebook. The more people know about Iranian bloggers' updates and events in Iran, the more people will share it. Consequently, the positive effect is that Iranian reformers would not feel in alone in their struggle. Each team needs fans for its support. And Iranians would realize that their whole country is not perceived as a threat by the West, but rather their regime and its ideology. People could acknowledge that it is Ahmadinejad and his gang, who prevent the country from a respected place in the international community. All people in the world share the will to live in peace, freedom and prosperity. Through a growing media, more Iranians would learn about Ahmadinejad`s extremist ideology, and the role that it plays as a barrier to the outside world.
Thus, the strategy must be to convince Iranians to get rid of the Ahmadinejad system. But as we saw through the elections fraud of 2009, just convincing Iranians alone is no guarantee of success. Circumstances for success need to be created. Elections have to be free and fair. Of course Iranians would never accept election monitoring by Westerners. But elections supervised and approved by (Shia) Muslims could be an acceptable solution. Such experienced observers could be found in international Organizations like the UN, NGOs or Muslim countries like Lebanon, Bangladesh, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. Moderate clerics would work out religious support, if not fearing repressions thereafter. And no establishment has a chance of survival by working continually against the stated and elected majorities will.
This strategy may not guarantee immediate success, but immediate success is not necessary. As said before, what is bombed can be rebuilt. Westerners and Iranians need an enduring long term solution, not another worthless compromise document. Only Iranian players on an Iranian field can win this cup.
Felix Seidler is a student of Political Science, Law and History at Würzburg University.
This article is shortlisted for atlantic-community.org's student
competition "Ideas with Impact: Policy Workshop 2010" sponsored by the
U.S. Mission to Germany.
Read the other shortlisted articles in the category "Iran's Nuclear Program" here.