Carbon Tax, Border Protection and Leadership.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Chris Uhlmann pieces together the narrative of federal politics.
TranscriptLEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: After a decade of debate, Australia seems certain to get a carbon price. The bills to set it up should clear the Lower House on Wednesday, and that'll be a victory for a government desperately in need of one.
But the Prime Minister faces two other major challenges that may prove thornier: her bid to secure the future of offshore processing of asylum seekers and leadership speculation that refuses to die.
Political editor Chris Uhlmann reflects on how all three of these issues are linked.
CHRIS UHLMANN, REPORTER: It was a public holiday in Canberra today and the annual flower festival has a circus theme.
The parliamentary show resumes on Capital Hill tomorrow and Labor's looking to land a large reward. After years of misadventure, the plan to price carbon should pass the House of Representatives on Wednesday.
GREG COMBET, CLIMATE CHANGE MINISTER: The debate for the introduction of a carbon price into the economy has been a very important one over a very lengthy period of time now.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Even at the 11th hour, business is mounting a rearguard action.
DICK WARBURTON, MANUFACTURING AUSTRALIA: By the looks of it, it's going to go through the Lower House and if it goes through the Lower House, then it'll breeze through the Upper House. But what I'd like to see happen is that we just keep intense pressure on the Government and the members because I just do believe this tax should be deferred. I think it is the wrong timing to be going with it at a time when other countries aren't doing it.
CHRIS UHLMANN: But the manufacturing union sees an opportunity, not a threat.
DAVE OLIVER, AUST. MANUFACTURING WORKERS UNION: The thing to remember is that part of the Government's announcement was for a $14.8 billion program for clean energy technology development. We can see that as a game-changer for manufacturing in this country because the clean technology industry is worth $6 trillion. America and China are fighting each other to be part of that action and we need to make sure that we can get part of that work as well.
CHRIS UHLMANN: That's something that appeals to at least one member of the Opposition.
MALCOLM TURNBULL, LIBERAL FRONTBENCHER: Whatever your views are on the particular legislation before the House this week, there is no question that clean technology, green technology is a new frontier.
CHRIS UHLMANN: The three interwoven themes of the week ahead in politics will be the carbon tax, border protection and leadership. And it's worth remembering how we got here: that under another leader, action on climate change was once an electoral winner for Labor.
KEVIN RUDD, PRIME MINISTER (April 2007): On climate change we confront the great moral, economic and environmental challenge of our generation.
CHRIS UHLMANN: The first move of the Rudd Government was to sign the Kyoto Protocol.
??? (December 2007): I said to you, Mr Prime Minister, welcome aboard.
CHRIS UHLMANN: But when the going got tough, Labor shelved carbon pricing.
KEVIN RUDD (April 2010): The implementation of a carbon pollution reduction scheme in Australia will be delayed.
CHRIS UHLMANN: During the 2011 election, Labor campaigned on delaying carbon pricing until it enjoyed broad support.
JULIA GILLARD, PRIME MINISTER (July 2010): I want to act in step with the world and when we have a deep and lasting community consensus.
CHRIS UHLMANN: And then there was this.
JULIA GILLARD (August 2010): There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead.
CHRIS UHLMANN: After the election, the Government changed tack again in a consensus forged with a select few.
JULIA GILLARD (February 2011): Now this proposed mechanism for pricing carbon is agreed to by the Australian Government and by the Australian Greens.
CHRIS UHLMANN: The effect of all this was that in the course of a year, largely by its own hand, Labor reversed the electoral polarity of carbon pricing from positive to negative and now it's struggling to flick the switch back.
GREG COMBET: We need to do more work to make sure we communicate the objectives of the legislation to the community and I accept that that's necessary.
CHRIS UHLMANN: On border protection in 2008 Labor unwound the Howard Government's Pacific Solution, a system of offshore processing of asylum seekers designed to stop the flow of irregular boats.
CHRIS EVANS, IMMIGRATION MINISTER (October 2009): We abolished the Pacific Solution. I'm absolutely proud of that. It was a blight on Australia and a blight on our international reputation.
CHRIS UHLMANN: As the number of boats rose ever higher, the Government grew nervous. It got Indonesia to intercept one boatload of people. And its first big fall in the polls came after it took a month to get a group of asylum seekers to leave the Oceanic Viking in late 2009. Then the Rudd Government hardened its approach, suspending the processing of Afghan and Sri Lankan asylum seekers.
KEVIN RUDD (April 2010): The combined effect of this suspension and the changing circumstances in these two countries will mean that more asylum seekers from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan will be refused. The Government's view is simple. If someone's claim for asylum is not legitimate, they'll be sent home.
CHRIS UHLMANN: When he was deposed, Kevin Rudd warned that the party might push even further right.
KEVIN RUDD (June 23, 2010): This party and government will not be lurching to the right on the question of asylum seekers, as some have counselled us to do.
CHRIS UHLMANN: And it did, looking for somewhere it could rebuild offshore processing.
JULIA GILLARD (July 2011): In recent days I have discussed with President Ramos Horta of East Timor the possibility of establishing a regional processing centre for the purpose of receiving and processing irregular entrants to the region.
CHRIS UHLMANN: With the High Court knocking off the so-called Malaysia solution, the Government now needs Parliament to back the plan. It's one vote short.
TONY CROOK, WA NATIONALS MP: I certainly don't feel beholden to the Prime Minister or the Labor Party to give them a vote of confidence in the floor of the Parliament.
CHRIS UHLMANN: So pushing ahead this week with the vote is a risk for Labor because to lose a vote in the House of Representatives can be seen as a loss of confidence in the Government.
TOYN ABBOTT, OPPOSITION LEADER: More and more as the Government starts to disintegrate, we look like the real hope for the people of Australia.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Given Kevin Rudd is so woven into the rich history that has helped deliver Labor its lowest primary vote in history, all the recent talk of a possible resurrection mystifies some, and history also explains why there's so much leadership speculation based on so little evidence, because last time everybody missed the story - well, almost everyone.
ABC JOURNALIST (June 23 2010): Several Government sources have told the ABC that MPs are being sounded out about a possible move against the Prime Minister.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Even as that went to air on June 23 last year, the notion seemed outrageous to many.
LABOR MP (June 23 2010): ABC have lost all credibility.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Given it turned out to be true, that a leader could get the axe with almost all the media, most ministers and the bulk of caucus completely in the dark, no-one wants to be caught short again, so even pub rumours are amplified, and the Coalition is aware of Labor and the media's paranoia and is feeding it.
JULIE BISHOP, DEPUTY LIBERAL LEADER: So, we've gotta be ready for a change at any time. The one certainty about politics is the uncertainty.
CHRIS UHLMANN: And given Labor has treated us all to leadership pantomimes before ...
JULIA GILLARD (May 2010): There's more chance of me becoming the full forward for the Dogs than there is of any change in the Labor Party.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Some recent performances are quite literally unbelievable.
CHARLIE PICKERING, 7.30 PROJECT PRESENTER (Last week): But there was a poll out that shows that seven out of 10 Australians would prefer you to lead the Labor Party. Are you saying they're wrong?
KEVIN RUDD: What I'm saying to you is tonight on your program I'm announcing a new policy. Any time someone asks me that question, I'm going to give you one example, one example of how Tony Abbott as Prime Minister would change the country.
CHRIS UHLMANN: What is true is that the Foreign Minister wants to be Prime Minister again and believes he can be. So do some of his colleagues. Wishing it won't make it come true, so it might never happen, but given what we've seen over the last four years, never say never.