Asia’s oil supply is anticipated to increase by 50 tb/d to average 3.67 mb/d in 2012, indicating a minor upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has affected Malaysia’s oil supply, compared with the previous month, while other producers’ supply forecasts in the region remain steady. India’s supply is expected to average 0.90 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 20 tb/d from last year.
This increase is supported by the Mangala project, with the operator receiving official approval to increase production from 125 tb/d to 150 tb/d in mid-April. The Bhagyam field added 25 tb/d to the total output of the projects in Rajasthan. However, the limited infrastructure could affect the increases from the Mangala fields.
The growth from Rajasthan in 2012 is expected to more than offset the natural declines from other fields. Thailand’s oil production is seen to average 0.33 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous year. The start-up of the offshore Greater Bongkot South gas field, where 15 tb/d production of liquid is expected, is seen to offset natural declines in other developments in 2012. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply is expected to stand at 3.64 mb/d, 3.67 mb/d, 3.68 mb/d and 3.70 mb/d, respectively.
Malaysia’s oil supply is seen to average 0.64 mb/d in 2012, flat from a year earlier and an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has affected all quarters, mainly on updated production data in the first quarter that has been carried over to the rest of the year. Production is seen to stabilize in 2012 on steady output from the Kikeh field. Indonesia’s oil supply is expected to drop by 30 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.99 mb/d, steady from the previous MOMR. The decrease has been predicted on the decline of mature area production and limited new developments. Vietnam’s oil production is forecast to increase by 40 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.39 mb/d, flat from the previous month. The growth is seen to be supported by the Te Giac \ Trang project ramp-up, which is expected to reach its peak production of 55 tb/d by the end of 2012.