WASHINGTON (FNS) -- In calculating the chances of a Y2K glitch getting in the way of a shipment of imported products, one place to start is with the ultimate international trade gatekeepers: the U.S. and foreign governments.
The U.S. Customs Service cargo-processing computer, even when it's running, has importers on edge. It's prone to brownouts and long overdue for replacement. So how could it possibly be Y2K-prepared?
Customs officials say the computer is ready for the calendar to turn. They draw a distinction between fixing problems besetting an outdated system and the more rote, but still time-consuming task of reprogramming computer codes to properly read the year 2000.
"We have completed our Y2K work," said Mike Barb, a computer specialist in Customs' Y2K Program Office. Left to do are some final Y2K dry-runs between the agency and freight forwarders, customs brokers and others who depend on Customs as the ultimate gatekeeper for merchandise imported into the United States. Earlier tests have run smoothly, Barb said.
Fixing potential Y2K glitches at Customs is crucial for apparel and textile importers for such functions as determining quotas, tariffs and, in the few countries where it's available, issuing entry visas electronically.
Robin Lanier, vice president for industry affairs and trade development at the International Mass Retail Association here, said she's not concerned about the Customs computer not being Y2K ready. However, "the concern is more with our trading partners" and their ability to process cargo and allocate quotas on outbound shipments.
"The imports that are most likely to be affected by this are textiles and apparel because you need more pieces of paper for these shipments," she said.
The ultimate test of any government's or corporation's efforts to be prepared for Y2K is the actual change of year. Despite all their Y2K work, problems are still expected to arise and forecasting these potential glitches or their effect is still somewhat of a guessing game. Most are expecting at least some minor snafus, remedied within days.
Don Gilbert, senior vice president of information technology at the National Retail Federation here, said if there are year 2000 problems affecting the flow of trade he expects they'll likely be more prevalent abroad, particularly in developing countries.
"If a retailer orders merchandise from a foreign country, can their customs service handle the transaction? That is where there is some concern," said Gilbert.
Should there be Y2K-related power, telecommunications or computer failures affecting cargo processing, Gilbert expects small countries without heavy export loads to easily switch to manual paperwork and data collection. "But if it's a Hong Kong or a Singapore, forget it," he said.
There are various international Y2K readiness groups sharing information and collectively working to be ready for the new year. However, getting a full picture of what's to be expected is still difficult, according to a State Department official who is part of a team assessing the readiness of foreign countries.
Jacquelyn L. Williams-Bridgers, the agency's inspector general, earlier this summer described to a Senate panel how Y2K readiness around the world is "mixed," although things could improve as 2000 draws closer. She said State inquiries showed industrialized countries were at low risk for having Y2K failures, whereas developing countries were determined to be at high risk for such failures as telecommunications, transportation and energy sectors.
"Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely, but no one knows exactly where, when and to what extent such disruptions will occur," Williams-Bridgers told the Senate Y2K Committee.
Cited in the State review as "low-risk" for Y2K government and private-sector failures in developing countries were Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan. India was rated as a "higher risk," particularly in its power grid. China also got low marks.
Williams-Bridgers said a May 25 People's Daily article estimated 70% of the large and medium-sized manufacturers there "do not take Y2K seriously" and that China "may be vulnerable because of its use of many obsolete computers and pirated software."
However, the Chinese government "is conducting a Y2K triage, focusing limited resources on critical public utilities as the top priority and then on key industrial sectors."