California could be in for a drought
Published 11:02 pm, Saturday, October 13, 2012
Sacramento -- When Californians suffer under oppressive heat, as they have for weeks, another concern is sure to follow: drought.
Long-term weather outlooks for the Golden State do not provide much reassurance. While the stubborn heat gripping the state has started easing, there is zero rain in the forecast.
Indeed, drought conditions have worsened across California compared with one year ago, and are expected to get more severe through December. Sixty-nine percent of California is now considered to be in moderate drought conditions, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center. One year ago, none of the state was in that condition.
The national drought center bases its outlook largely on soil moisture measurements.
California officials look at drought a little differently, basing it on whether people's water needs are being met. The state Department of Water Resources is a long way from declaring a drought, saying it depends much more on local conditions and regional demand. But it acknowledges the potential is there.
For instance, most of the state's major reservoirs are at below-average storage levels. California avoided drought this summer because those reservoirs were filled to the brim by a wet winter in the early months of 2011. Such was not the case this last January through March, and now the surplus is gone.
Examples include Folsom Reservoir on the American River, which stood less than half full Monday, with capacity about 81 percent of average for this time of year.
"Groundwater levels are starting to go down a little in some places, and reservoir storage levels are starting to go down," said Jeanine Jones, interstate resources manager at DWR. "If this winter is dry, we'll feel it more."
On Sunday, Sacramento set a record with 26 days in September at 90 degrees or hotter, according to the National Weather Service. That broke the previous record of 24 days in 1974.
Fresno also broke records for the hottest average temperatures in August and September. The prior records had stood since 1931 and 1984, respectively.
The first few days of October offer little relief. The high temperature in downtown Sacramento Monday was 100 degrees, 1 degree shy of the record. Tuesday's peak is expected to reach 99 degrees.
"We're going to break some records today," said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, where Tuesday's predicted high is 102. "I tried to figure out whether this is some sort of precursor for the winter. Maybe I'm getting senile, but I don't see it yet."
The rest of the week will bring a gradual cool-down, to the point that weekend temperatures may actually be in the low 80s - below normal - and cloudy. This means the massive dome of persistent high pressure over the California coastline, the culprit behind the hot trend, is finally breaking down.
Still, despite the promise of clouds, there is no rain in the forecast. As a result, fire hazards have worsened across Northern California.
Conditions have been so dry and hot that, on Monday, the National Interagency Fire Center extended an "above average" fire warning across Northern California all the way to the edge of the Pacific Ocean. It also warned that warm, dry winds could blow across the state from inland deserts next week, rather than from the ocean as usual.