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By Cristian Frers
The 20th century was the warmest, and the 1990s were the hottest in the last 1000 years. And for that, the best thing is to have an idea of what can happen in each region.
Today, it is a scientific fact that the global climate is being significantly altered as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons. These gases are trapping a growing portion of terrestrial infrared radiation and are expected to increase the planetary temperature by 1.5 to 4.5 ° C. In response to this, it is estimated that global precipitation patterns and ocean currents will also alter.
During the month of February 2011, a super snow and ice storm has developed in the United States of America that has already canceled more than 10,000 flights and it is assumed that the city of Chicago will be one of the most affected ... Chicago, traditionally One of the cities hardest hit in winter by strong winds, it will withstand polar winds of almost 100 kilometers per hour, 60-centimeter snowfall and 3-centimeter thick ice sheets.
The National Meteorological Service, of the northern country, has described the storm, which moves between the border of the United States and Canada, as a potential risk to life for those people who are not protected when the decrease in the temperature.
The rains that Australia is suffering, during the same period, are due to the appearance of easterly winds in the tropics that collide with the warm waters of the western Pacific over Australia and Indonesia, these rains are expected to last until June of this year . One of the causes is due to the increase in ocean temperatures in northern Australia, 1.5 degrees from pre-1870 levels.
Climatic variations have existed in the past and will always exist as a result of different natural phenomena, but the 20th century was the warmest, and the 1990s was the hottest in the last 1000 years.
Climate change projections should make us think responsibly about the developed way of life and that the only thing that is causing it is the progressive destruction of our habitats.
It is considered that the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will foreseeably have an impact on the Earth's temperatures in the next thousand years and will raise the sea water level by at least 4 meters. A study has been carried out with computer simulation programs that explored the different possible scenarios in a situation of zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from the years 2010 and 2100.
The result was that regions in the northern hemisphere will fare better than those in the south, although the projection is that weather patterns in places like Canada will completely change.
Large areas of North Africa will become deserts and warming by up to 5% of the temperature of the oceans will cause the collapse of the western Antarctic ice sheet, an area of 2.2 million square kilometers, or four times the size of a country like Spain.
Ocean waters and part of the southern hemisphere have much greater inertia (warming) and the current effects of climate change in these regions due to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the 20th century are the tip of the iceberg.
The southern winds tend to strengthen and remain strong before subsiding. This increases mixing in the ocean, bringing more heat from the atmosphere to the sea.
Great droughts, torrential rains, tsunamis, storms or hurricanes will devastate the planet.
The simulation shows that warming will continue before it stops or is reversed, even when we take 10 centuries as a time scale.
This means that in Argentina we are going to have a combination of heavy rains (and consequently, floods) in coastal areas with droughts in the interior of the country. In other words, extreme situations are going to get worse and worse.
More intense marine storms can increase coastal erosion, which will mean losing all the sand on the beaches of Villa Gesell, Pinamar, San Clemente, among others. Of the spas in that area, we will have just a long peninsula, separated from the continent by an arm of the sea, and with the water reaching the edge of the coastlines, since erosion will carry the sand from the beaches. Those who have seen the San Clemente shoreline during a high tide southeast may have a pretty good idea of what will happen.
In cities that are on the shores of great rivers, entire neighborhoods will have frequent floods and may have to be evacuated permanently. This will affect the entire coastal area of Greater Buenos Aires, from Quilmes to Tigre. But it will also go further, reaching Resistencia, Formosa and Posadas.
The Autonomous City of Buenos Aires itself is increasingly flooded, despite the works that are being carried out to alleviate the problem. One reason is that it now rains twice as much as it did a century ago when the drains were designed.
That is why it does not make sense to attribute all the responsibility for each flood to the Government of the day, since it is a problem that was built little by little for a long time. And the thing is just beginning. We do not know how long it will take for the level of rainfall in the city to double again, but it will surely be much less than in the past.
In dry areas, less rainfall will decrease the flow of rivers. This will make Mendoza and San Juan have to reduce their irrigation areas. Other cities, which depend on smaller rivers, probably cannot be supplied and must be evacuated. La Rioja may be the first of a series of cities in danger from a permanent drought.
The country's economy will change because some areas will no longer be suitable for current crops, sometimes due to lack and other times due to excessive rainfall. There will also be changes in sanitary conditions, as tropical and subtropical diseases such as dengue and leptospirosis spread.
If climate change is already inevitable, what remains for us is to establish an adaptation strategy. And for that, the best thing is to have an idea of what can happen in each region.
To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, we need a drastic and rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector is the main responsible for all of these emissions, therefore it is necessary to seek a change in the energy model, seeking to replace the current dirty energy sources, such as coal and oil, with renewable energy.
Solutions such as support for renewable energy, vehicle efficiency or international agreements should be proposed. As well as the development of energy revolution scenarios that show how it is possible to completely replace dirty energies with clean ones.
On the other hand, the population can also drastically contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases, through energy saving policies.
It is worrying that our children, grandchildren and future generations will not be able to enjoy the quality of life or the natural resources that we have today. And it is frankly sad to see how our governments go out of their way to desperately suck up and sell our fossil energy resources to fuel a way of life based on irrational waste and that is damaging the planet.
The defense of life and diversity is a fight that we must incorporate into our permanent agenda because it compromises our own existence and human condition. For this reason we must persevere in sensitizing and educating those who have not yet realized the seriousness of the problem and generate bonds of practical solidarity that hopefully allow us to reverse the current historical trend that is leading us towards the abyss of self-destruction as a species, that is, , towards the true end of history.
Cristian Frers - Senior Technician in Environmental Management and Senior Technician in Social Communication