Similarly , meteorologists working with the City University of Hong Kong issued a seasonal projection on April 24 , 2003 , indicating the likelihood of a normal or below normal season with 29 total tropical cyclones , 26 tropical storms , and 16 typhoons . As with the TSR , the group primarily based their forecast numbers on the prevailing status of the El Niño @-@ Southern Oscillation . The City University of Hong Kong revised their forecasts on June 24 , 2003 , indicating a slight increase of total tropical cyclones to 30 . The group was also accurate in their forecasts for the entirety of the Northwest Pacific , though their specialized forecasts for the South China Sea were substantially off .