On the contrary, the Press, both in England
and in America, teemed with suggestions and suppositions, most of which
were obviously absurd. The fact that the watches were of American
make, and some peculiarities in connection with the gold stopping of
his front tooth, appeared to indicate that the deceased was a citizen
of the United States, though his linen, clothes and boots were
undoubtedly of British manufacture. It was surmised, by some, that he
was concealed under the seat, and that, being discovered, he was for
some reason, possibly because he had overheard their guilty secrets,
put to death by his fellow-passengers. When coupled with generalities
as to the ferocity and cunning of anarchical and other secret
societies, this theory sounded as plausible as any. The fact that he should be without a ticket would be consistent with
the idea of concealment, and it was well known that women played a
prominent part in the Nihilistic propaganda. On the other hand, it was
clear, from the guard's statement, that the man must have been hidden
there BEFORE the others arrived, and how unlikely the coincidence that
conspirators should stray exactly into the very compartment in which a
spy was already concealed! Besides, this explanation ignored the man in
the smoking carriage, and gave no reason at all for his simultaneous
disappearance. The police had little difficulty in showing that such a
theory would not cover the facts, but they were unprepared in the
absence of evidence to advance any alternative explanation. There was a letter in the Daily Gazette, over the signature of a
well-known criminal investigator, which gave rise to considerable
discussion at the time. He had formed a hypothesis which had at least
ingenuity to recommend it, and I cannot do better than append it in his
own words. "Whatever may be the truth," said he, "it must depend upon some bizarre
and rare combination of events, so we need have no hesitation in
postulating such events in our explanation. In the absence of data we
must abandon the analytic or scientific method of investigation, and
must approach it in the synthetic fashion. In a word, instead of taking
known events and deducing from them what has occurred, we must build up
a fanciful explanation if it will only be consistent with known events. We can then test this explanation by any fresh facts which may arise. If they all fit into their places, the probability is that we are upon
the right track, and with each fresh fact this probability increases in
a geometrical progression until the evidence becomes final and
convincing. "Now, there is one most remarkable and suggestive fact which has not
met with the attention which it deserves. There is a local train
running through Harrow and King's Langley, which is timed in such a way
that the express must have overtaken it at or about the period when it
eased down its speed to eight miles an hour on account of the repairs
of the line. The two trains would at that time be travelling in the
same direction at a similar rate of speed and upon parallel lines. It
is within every one's experience how, under such circumstances, the
occupant of each carriage can see very plainly the passengers in the
other carriages opposite to him. The lamps of the express had been lit
at Willesden, so that each compartment was brightly illuminated, and
most visible to an observer from outside. "Now, the sequence of events as I reconstruct them would be after this
fashion. This young man with the abnormal number of watches was alone
in the carriage of the slow train. His ticket, with his papers and
gloves and other things, was, we will suppose, on the seat beside him. He was probably an American, and also probably a man of weak intellect. The excessive wearing of jewellery is an early symptom in some forms of
mania. "As he sat watching the carriages of the express which were (on account
of the state of the line) going at the same pace as himself, he
suddenly saw some people in it whom he knew. We will suppose for the
sake of our theory that these people were a woman whom he loved and a
man whom he hated--and who in return hated him. The young man was
excitable and impulsive. He opened the door of his carriage, stepped
from the footboard of the local train to the footboard of the express,
opened the other door, and made his way into the presence of these two
people. The feat (on the supposition that the trains were going at the
same pace) is by no means so perilous as it might appear. "Having now got our young man, without his ticket, into the carriage in
which the elder man and the young woman are travelling, it is not
difficult to imagine that a violent scene ensued. It is possible that
the pair were also Americans, which is the more probable as the man
carried a weapon--an unusual thing in England. If our supposition of
incipient mania is correct, the young man is likely to have assaulted
the other. As the upshot of the quarrel the elder man shot the
intruder, and then made his escape from the carriage, taking the young
lady with him. We will suppose that all this happened very rapidly,
and that the train was still going at so slow a pace that it was not
difficult for them to leave it. A woman might leave a train going at
eight miles an hour. As a matter of fact, we know that this woman DID
do so. "And now we have to fit in the man in the smoking carriage. Presuming
that we have, up to this point, reconstructed the tragedy correctly, we
shall find nothing in this other man to cause us to reconsider our
conclusions. According to my theory, this man saw the young fellow
cross from one train to the other, saw him open the door, heard the
pistol-shot, saw the two fugitives spring out on to the line, realized
that murder had been done, and sprang out himself in pursuit. Why he
has never been heard of since--whether he met his own death in the
pursuit, or whether, as is more likely, he was made to realize that it
was not a case for his interference--is a detail which we have at
present no means of explaining. I acknowledge that there are some
difficulties in the way. At first sight, it might seem improbable that
at such a moment a murderer would burden himself in his flight with a
brown leather bag. My answer is that he was well aware that if the bag
were found his identity would be established. It was absolutely
necessary for him to take it with him. My theory stands or falls upon
one point, and I call upon the railway company to make strict inquiry
as to whether a ticket was found unclaimed in the local train through
Harrow and King's Langley upon the 18th of March. If such a ticket
were found my case is proved. If not, my theory may still be the
correct one, for it is conceivable either that he travelled without a
ticket or that his ticket was lost."