But let it not for a
      moment be supposed that, in proceeding with the sad narrative of
      Marie from the epoch just mentioned, and in tracing to its
      dénouement the mystery which enshrouded her, it is my covert
      design to hint at an extension of the parallel, or even to
      suggest that the measures adopted in Paris for the discovery of
      the assassin of a grisette, or measures founded in any similar
      ratiocination, would produce any similar result. For, in respect to the latter branch of the supposition, it
      should be considered that the most trifling variation in the
      facts of the two cases might give rise to the most important
      miscalculations, by diverting thoroughly the two courses of
      events; very much as, in arithmetic, an error which, in its own
      individuality, may be inappreciable, produces, at length, by dint
      of multiplication at all points of the process, a result
      enormously at variance with truth. And, in regard to the former
      branch, we must not fail to hold in view that the very Calculus
      of Probabilities to which I have referred, forbids all idea of
      the extension of the parallel—forbids it with a positiveness
      strong and decided just in proportion as this parallel has
      already been long-drawn and exact. This is one of those anomalous
      propositions which, seemingly appealing to thought altogether
      apart from the mathematical, is yet one which only the
      mathematician can fully entertain. Nothing, for example, is more
      difficult than to convince the merely general reader that the
      fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by a player
      at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that
      sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A suggestion to
      this effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It does
      not appear that the two throws which have been completed, and
      which lie now absolutely in the Past, can have influence upon the
      throw which exists only in the Future. The chance for throwing
      sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary time—that
      is to say, subject only to the influence of the various other
      throws which may be made by the dice. And this is a reflection
      which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert
      it are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with
      anything like respectful attention. The error here involved—a
      gross error redolent of mischief—I cannot pretend to expose
      within the limits assigned me at present; and with the
      philosophical it needs no exposure. It may be sufficient here to
      say that it forms one of an infinite series of mistakes which
      arise in the path of Reason through her propensity for seeking
      truth in detail. FOOTNOTES—Marie Rogêt

      (*1) Upon the original publication of “Marie Roget,” the
      foot-notes now appended were considered unnecessary; but the
      lapse of several years since the tragedy upon which the tale is
      based, renders it expedient to give them, and also to say a few
      words in explanation of the general design. A young girl, Mary
      Cecilia Rogers, was murdered in the vicinity of New York; and,
      although her death occasioned an intense and long-enduring
      excitement, the mystery attending it had remained unsolved at the
      period when the present paper was written and published
      (November, 1842). Herein, under pretence of relating the fate of
      a Parisian grisette, the author has followed in minute detail,
      the essential, while merely paralleling the inessential facts of
      the real murder of Mary Rogers. Thus all argument founded upon
      the fiction is applicable to the truth: and the investigation of
      the truth was the object. The “Mystery of Marie Roget” was
      composed at a distance from the scene of the atrocity, and with
      no other means of investigation than the newspapers afforded. Thus much escaped the writer of which he could have availed
      himself had he been upon the spot, and visited the localities. It
      may not be improper to record, nevertheless, that the confessions
      of two persons, (one of them the Madame Deluc of the narrative)
      made, at different periods, long subsequent to the publication,
      confirmed, in full, not only the general conclusion, but
      absolutely all the chief hypothetical details by which that
      conclusion was attained. (*2) The nom de plume of Von Hardenburg. (*3) Nassau Street. (*4) Anderson. (*5) The Hudson. (*6) Weehawken. (*7) Payne. (*8) Crommelin. (*9) The New York “Mercury.”

      (*10) The New York “Brother Jonathan,” edited by H. Hastings
      Weld, Esq. (*11) New York “Journal of Commerce.”

      (*12) Philadelphia “Saturday Evening Post,” edited by C. I.
      Peterson, Esq. (*13) Adam

      (*14) See “Murders in the Rue Morgue.”

      (*15) The New York “Commercial Advertiser,” edited by Col. Stone. (*16) “A theory based on the qualities of an object, will prevent
      its being unfolded according to its objects; and he who arranges
      topics in reference to their causes, will cease to value them
      according to their results. Thus the jurisprudence of every
      nation will show that, when law becomes a science and a system,
      it ceases to be justice. The errors into which a blind devotion
      to principles of classification has led the common law, will be
      seen by observing how often the legislature has been obliged to
      come forward to restore the equity its scheme had lost.”—Landor. (*17) New York “Express”

      (*18) New York “Herald.”

      (*19) New York “Courier and Inquirer.”

      (*20) Mennais was one of the parties originally suspected and
      arrested, but discharged through total lack of evidence. (*21) New York “Courier and Inquirer.”

      (*22) New York “Evening Post.”

      (*23) Of the Magazine in which the article was originally
      published. THE BALLOON-HOAX


[Astounding News by Express, _via_ Norfolk!—The Atlantic crossed in
Three Days! Signal Triumph of Mr. Monck Mason’s Flying
Machine!—Arrival at Sullivan’s Island, near Charlestown, S.C., of Mr.
Mason, Mr. Robert Holland, Mr. Henson, Mr. Harrison Ainsworth, and four
others, in the Steering Balloon, “Victoria,” after a passage of
Seventy-five Hours from Land to Land! Full Particulars of the Voyage! The subjoined _jeu d’esprit_ with the preceding heading in
    magnificent capitals, well interspersed with notes of admiration,
    was originally published, as matter of fact, in the “New York Sun,”
    a daily newspaper, and therein fully subserved the purpose of
    creating indigestible aliment for the _quidnuncs_ during the few
    hours intervening between a couple of the Charleston mails.