claim: Skeptics have long pointed to ice gain in the Southern Hemisphere as evidence climate change wasn’t occurring, but scientists warned that it was caused by natural variations and circulations in the atmosphere.
evidence: For example, assuming reinvestment, the cumulative return for annual returns: 50%, -20%, 30% and -40% is: ( 1 + 0.50 ) ( 1 − 0.20 ) ( 1 + 0.30 ) ( 1 − 0.40 ) − 1 = − 0.0640 = − 6.40 % {\displaystyle (1+0.50)(1-0.20)(1+0.30)(1-0.40)-1=-0.0640=-6.40\%} and the geometric average is: ( 1 + 0.50 ) ( 1 − 0.20 ) ( 1 + 0.30 ) ( 1 − 0.40 ) 4 − 1 = − 0.0164 = − 1.64 % {\displaystyle {\sqrt[{4}]{(1+0.50)(1-0.20)(1+0.30)(1-0.40)}}-1=-0.0164=-1.64\%} which is equal to the annualized cumulative return: 1 − 0.0640 4 − 1 = − 0.0164 {\displaystyle {\sqrt[{4}]{1-0.0640}}-1=-0.0164} In the presence of external flows, such as cash or securities moving into or out of the portfolio, the return should be calculated by compensating for these movements.