claim: Their ECS estimate is 1.5 degrees, with a probability range between 1.05 and 2.45 degrees.
evidence: IPCC authors concluded ECS is very likely to be greater than 1.5 °C ( 2.7 °F ) and likely to lie in the range 2 to 4.5 °C ( 4 to 8.1 °F ), with a most likely value of about 3 °C ( 5 °F ).