claim: Prof Adam Scaife, a climate modelling expert at the UK’s Met Office, said the evidence for a link to shrinking Arctic ice was now good : ‘The consensus points towards that being a real effect.’”
evidence: Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting and have uncovered a signal to noise paradox in climate models that makes them better at predicting the real climate than they are at predicting themselves.