claim: Their ECS estimate is 1.5 degrees, with a probability range between 1.05 and 2.45 degrees.
evidence: As estimated by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ( AR5 ), there is high confidence that ECS is extremely unlikely less than 1°C and medium confidence that the ECS is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C and very unlikely greater than 6°C.