INTRODUCTION: This study observes the results of outbreak and mortality in three comparable countries that have been widely affected: Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden. These countries carried out “non-pharmaceutical interventions” at three different levels, from lockdown (Belgium) to social distancing (Sweden). OBJECTIVE: This study examines the effectiveness of general and undifferentiated interventions (lockdown) and their side effects. It implements models as a decision-making and crisis management tool. It examines relevant statistical predictive use (hospitalization and mortality projections) in the case of a versatile coronavirus outbreak. RESULTS: General non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdown, shut down, social distancing) did not “delay” the peak or “flatten” the curves. CONCLUSION: Non-targeted “Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions” (NPIs) do not have any direct effect on the R indicator (basic reproductive number). On the other hand, overly intense NPIs keep R above the imagined level.
Gestion de la crise sanitaire par des interventions non pharmaceutiques et surmortalité de l'épidémie COVID-19