To study the predictive ability of the NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, COVID-GRAM and qSOFA scales in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalized in a multidisciplinary hospital. Material and methods. The pilot retrospective cohort study used data from 90 patients (52 -- intensive care unit subgroup, 38 -- general unit subgroup) with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 hospitalized in the O. M. Filatov City Clinical Hospital № 15 (Moscow) from January to March 2021. Results. The probability of a positive outcome of the disease significantly negatively correlates with the patient's age (R=-0,514;p=0,0002). The best correlation with the COVID-19 outcome had a 4C Mortality Score (R=0,836;p=0,0001). Logistic regression revealed a significant dependence of the "outcome" and "age" parameters with the greatest accuracy in the form of age subgroups according to the World Health Organization classification with odds ratio (OR) of 4,29 (p=0,0001). As a result of ROC analysis, the best predictive ability of disease outcomes was shown for the 4C Mortality Score (area under curve (AUC)=0,878;95% confidence interval (CI): 0,782- 0,975 (p=0,00001)) and COVID-GRAM (AUC=0,807;95% CI: 0,720- 0,895 (p=0,00001));taking into account the division of patients into age subgroups, optimal predictive tools were obtained: in subgroups 18-44 years old and 45-59 years old -- the 4С Mortality Score (AUC=0,892, 95% CI: 0,762-0,980 (p=0,002) and AUC=0,853, 95% CI: 0,784-0,961 (p=0,0014), respectively);in the subgroup 60-74 years old -- the COVID-GRAM (AUC=0,833, 95% CI: 0,682-0,990 (p=0,038));in subgroups 75-90 years and >90 years -- NEWS2 (AUC=0,958, 95% CI: 0,807-1,0 (p=0,002) and AUC=0,818, 95% CI: 0,713-0,996 (p=0,006), respectively). ROC analysis showed that the age of 70 years is the threshold value, above which the probability of an unfavorable COVID-19 outcome increases significantly (OR=11,63;95% CI: 9,72- 12,06 (p=0,0052)). Conclusion. The pilot study showed the significance of predicting the hospitalization outcome of patients with severe COVID-19. The 4C Mortality Score and COVID-GRAM scales had the best predictive accuracy. The specificity and sensitivity of the scores depended on the age of a patient. The age of 70 years was the threshold value at which the risk of an adverse outcome increased significantly. Based on the data obtained, it is planned to study the problem of predicting the disease course, taking into account the severity of COVID-19. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] Ð¦ÐµÐ»ÑŒ. Ð˜ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ‚ÑŒ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ‡ÐµÑÐºÑƒÑŽ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð» NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, COVID-GRAM Ð¸ qSOFA Ð² Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´ÑÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÐºÐ»Ð¸Ð½Ð¸Ñ‡Ðµ- ÑÐºÐ¸Ñ… Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ñƒ Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð² Ñ Ñ‚ÑÐ¶ÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð¹ Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð¾Ð¹ COVID-19 (COrona VIrus Disease 2019), Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¿Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ñ… Ð² Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ñ„Ð¸Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ð¹ ÑÑ‚Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ñ€. ÐœÐ°Ñ‚ÐµÑ€Ð¸Ð°Ð» Ð¸ Ð¼ÐµÑ‚Ð¾Ð´Ñ‹. Ð’ Ð¿Ð¸Ð»Ð¾Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ Ñ€ÐµÑ‚Ñ€Ð¾ÑÐ¿ÐµÐºÑ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ‹ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ðµ 90 Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ñ… (52 Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½- Ñ‚Ð° -- Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð° Ð¾Ñ‚Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ€ÐµÐ°Ð½Ð¸Ð¼Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½Ñ‚ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ñ‚ÐµÑ€Ð°Ð¿Ð¸Ð¸, 38 Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð² -- Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð° ÐºÐ¾ÐµÑ‡Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ñ‚Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ) Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ‚Ð²ÐµÑ€Ð¶Ð´ÐµÐ½- Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼ Ð´Ð¸Ð°Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¾Ð¼ COVID-19, Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¿Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ñ… Ð² Ð“ÐšÐ‘ â„– 15 Ð¸Ð¼. Ðž. Ðœ. Ð¤Ð¸Ð»Ð°Ñ‚Ð¾Ð²Ð° (Ð³. ÐœÐ¾ÑÐºÐ²Ð°) Ð² Ð¿ÐµÑ€Ð¸Ð¾Ð´ Ñ ÑÐ½Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ Ð¼Ð°Ñ€Ñ‚ 2021Ð³. Ð ÐµÐ·ÑƒÐ»ÑŒÑ‚Ð°Ñ‚Ñ‹. Ð’ÐµÑ€Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð° Ð·Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐ²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ, Ð·Ð½Ð°- Ñ‡Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¸Ñ†Ð°Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ð¾ ÐºÐ¾Ñ€Ñ€ÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ€ÑƒÐµÑ‚ Ñ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ñ€Ð°ÑÑ‚Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð° (R=-0,514;Ñ€=0,0002). ÐÐ°Ð¸Ð»ÑƒÑ‡ÑˆÑƒÑŽ ÐºÐ¾Ñ€Ñ€ÐµÐ»ÑÑ†Ð¸ÑŽ Ñ Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð¼ COVID-19 Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐµÑ‚ Ð¾Ñ†ÐµÐ½- ÐºÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð»Ðµ 4Ð¡ Mortality Score (R=0,836;Ñ€=0,0001). Ð›Ð¾Ð³Ð¸ÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ‡ÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ñ€ÐµÐ³Ñ€ÐµÑÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ð¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð²Ñ‹ÑÐ²Ð¸Ð» Ð·Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð¸Ð¼ÑƒÑŽ Ð·Ð°Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð¿Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ð¼ÐµÑ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ð² "Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´" Ð¸ "Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ñ€Ð°ÑÑ‚" Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð¸Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÑˆÐµÐ¹ Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ‡Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒÑŽ Ð² Ð²Ð¸Ð´Ðµ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ñ€Ð°ÑÑ‚Ð½Ñ‹Ñ… Ð¿Ð¾Ð´- Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿ Ð¿Ð¾ ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ñ„Ð¸ÐºÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ Ð’ÑÐµÐ¼Ð¸Ñ€Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾Ñ€Ð³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ Ð·Ð´Ñ€Ð°Ð²Ð¾Ð¾Ñ…Ñ€Ð°Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ Ð¾Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾ÑˆÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ ÑˆÐ°Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð² (ÐžÐ¨)=4,29 (Ñ€=0,0001). Ð’ Ñ€ÐµÐ·ÑƒÐ»ÑŒÑ‚Ð°Ñ‚Ðµ ROC- Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð»ÑƒÑ‡ÑˆÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´ÑÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð·Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐ²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð° Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð» 4Ð¡ Mortality Score (AUC -- area under curve (Ð¿Ð»Ð¾- Ñ‰Ð°Ð´ÑŒ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ ÐºÑ€Ð¸Ð²Ð¾Ð¹)=0,878;95% Ð´Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑ€Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ð¹ Ð¸Ð½Ñ‚ÐµÑ€Ð²Ð°Ð» (Ð”Ð˜): 0,782- 0,975 (p=0,00001) Ð¸ COVID-GRAM (AUC=0,807;95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,720-0,895 (p=0,00001);Ñ ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÑ‚Ð¾Ð¼ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð² Ð½Ð° Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ñ€Ð°ÑÑ‚Ð½Ñ‹Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿- Ð¿Ñ‹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÐ½Ñ‹ Ð¾Ð¿Ñ‚Ð¸Ð¼Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ðµ Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´Ð¸ÐºÑ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ñ‹Ðµ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑ‚Ñ€ÑƒÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ñ‹: Ð² Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿- Ð¿Ð°Ñ… 18-44 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ Ð¸ 45-59 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ -- ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð»Ð° 4Ð¡ Mortality Score -- AUC=0,892, 95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,762-0,980 (Ñ€=0,002) Ð¸ AUC=0,853, 95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,784-0,961 (Ñ€=0,0014), ÑÐ¾Ð¾Ñ‚Ð²ÐµÑ‚ÑÑ‚Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾;Ð² Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ðµ 60-74 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ -- ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð»Ð° COVIDGRAM -- AUC=0,833, 95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,682-0,990 (Ñ€=0,038);Ð² Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð°Ñ… 75-90 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ Ð¸ >90 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ -- ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð»Ð° NEWS2 -- AUC=0,958, 95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,807-1,0 (Ñ€=0,002) Ð¸ AUC=0,818, 95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,713-0,996 (Ñ€=0,006), ÑÐ¾Ð¾Ñ‚Ð²ÐµÑ‚ÑÑ‚Ð²ÐµÐ½- Ð½Ð¾. Ð¡Ð¾Ð²Ð¼ÐµÑÑ‚Ð½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð» 4Ð¡ Mortality Score Ð¸ COVIDGRAM ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð¶Ð°Ð»Ð¾ Ð¸Ñ… Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ‡ÐµÑÐºÑƒÑŽ Ñ†ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ -- AUC=0,784, 95% Ð”Ð˜: 0,689-0,814 (Ñ€=0,008). Ð¡ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ñ‰ÑŒÑŽ ROC-Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¾, Ñ‡Ñ‚Ð¾ Ð²Ð¾Ð·- Ñ€Ð°ÑÑ‚ 70 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑ‚ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ð¼ Ð·Ð½Ð°Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼, Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ²Ñ‹ÑˆÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¸ ÐºÐ¾Ñ‚Ð¾- Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð·Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ ÑƒÐ²ÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ‡Ð¸Ð²Ð°ÐµÑ‚ÑÑ Ð²ÐµÑ€Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð½ÐµÐ±Ð»Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ÑÑ‚Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð° COVID-19: ÐžÐ¨=11,63;95% Ð”Ð˜: 9,72-12,06 (Ñ€=0,0052). Ð—Ð°ÐºÐ»ÑŽÑ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ. Ð ÐµÐ·ÑƒÐ»ÑŒÑ‚Ð°Ñ‚Ñ‹ Ð¿Ð¸Ð»Ð¾Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð»Ð¸ Ð´Ð¾- ÑÑ‚Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑ€Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð° Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¿Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½- Ñ‚Ð¾Ð² Ñ Ñ‚ÑÐ¶ÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð¹ Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð¾Ð¹ COVID-19. ÐÐ°Ð¸Ð»ÑƒÑ‡ÑˆÐµÐ¹ Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´ÑÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ‡Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒÑŽ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°Ð´Ð°Ð»Ð¸ ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð»Ñ‹ 4Ð¡ Mortality Score Ð¸ COVID-GRAM. Ð¡Ð¿ÐµÑ†Ð¸Ñ„Ð¸Ñ‡Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð¸ Ñ‡ÑƒÐ²ÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ð¾Ñ†ÐµÐ½Ð¾Ðº Ð¿Ð¾ ÑˆÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð¼ Ð·Ð°Ð²Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»Ð° Ð¾Ñ‚ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ñ€Ð°ÑÑ‚Ð°Ð¿Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð°. Ð’Ð¾Ð·Ñ€Ð ÑÑ‚ 70 Ð»ÐµÑ‚ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐ»ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ð¼ Ð·Ð½Ð°Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼, Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ Ð´Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¸ ÐºÐ¾Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ñ€Ð¸ÑÐº Ð½ÐµÐ±Ð»Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ÑÑ‚Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸ÑÑ…Ð¾Ð´Ð° Ð·Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ ÑƒÐ²ÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ‡Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ. ÐÐ° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ñ… Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¸Ð»Ð¾Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾- Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·Ð°Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¾ Ð¸Ð·ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼Ñ‹ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ‡Ðµ- Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐ²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ñ ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÑ‚Ð¾Ð¼ ÑÑ‚ÐµÐ¿ÐµÐ½Ð¸ Ñ‚ÑÐ¶ÐµÑÑ‚Ð¸ COVID-19. (Russian) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Cardiovascular Therapy & Prevention is the property of Silicea-Poligraf LLC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. 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NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, COVID-GRAM, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Quick scales as outcomes assessment tools for severe COVID-19 (pilot retrospective cohort study)