Objective To analyse the impact and repercussions of the surge in healthcare demand in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, assessed the potential effectiveness of various infection/disease control measures, and projected on the best approach to the current lockdown exit Design A four-compartment model was constructed for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the Wuhan data and validated with data collected in Italy, United Kingdom and the US The model captures the effectiveness of various disease suppression measures in three modifiable factors: (a) the per capita contact rate (β) that can be lowered by means of social distancing, (b) infection probability upon contacting infectious individuals that can be lowered by wearing facemasks, personal hygiene, etc , and (c) the population of infectious individuals in contact with susceptible population, which can be lowered by quarantine The model was used to project on the best approach to the current lockdown exit Results The model was applied to evaluate the epidemiological data and hospital burden in Italy, United Kingdom and the US The control measures were identified as the key drivers for the observed epidemiological data through the sensitivity analyses Analysing the different lockdown exit strategies showed that a lockdown exit strategy with a combination of social separation/general facemask use may work but this needs to be supported by intense monitoring that allow a re-introduction/tightening of the control measures if the number of new infected subjects picks up again
A four-compartment model for the COVID-19 infection - implications on infection kinetics, control measures and lockdown exit strategies