AIM: To estimate the epidemiological parameters related to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran. BACKGROUND: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) is essential to support and inform public health decision-making in different communities including Iran. METHODS: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. Then, we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation. RESULTS: We estimated the R0 at 2.11 (95% CI, 1.87-2.50) and the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI: 59,263 -152,212) by 15 March. Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1.2% (95% CI: 1.1-1.4). The latent period estimation was 4.24 (95% CI: 2.84-6.65). We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak to reach R0<1. Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effective measures for the treatment of symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended because of low ascertainment rate and large number of infected cases. We additionally recommend that traffic restriction be combined with other controlling measures.
Early estimation of the epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak in Iran: 19 Feb-15 March, 2020