Universal access to cleaner cooking fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)) is a key target of Sustainable Development Goal 7. Currently, approximately 40 million Kenyans rely on polluting cooking fuels (e.g. charcoal, wood). While the Kenyan government aims to rapidly scale up use of LPG for cooking by 2030, COVID-19 restrictions and a 16% value added tax (VAT) re-introduced on LPG in 2021 have likely hampered progress in LPG uptake. We aimed to quantify the effect of these economic shocks on food and energy security in Langas informal urban settlement in western Kenya. We further evaluated whether households most adversely affected by COVID-19 restrictions were more likely to be socioeconomically impacted by the VAT re-imposition. A cross-sectional survey (n = 1542) assessed changes in cooking fuel patterns, food security and livelihoods of primary cooks due to these two economic shocks. While under COVID-19 restrictions, 75% (n = 1147) of participants reported income declines and 18% (n = 164) of participants using LPG (n = 922) switched their primary cooking fuel to charcoal, wood or kerosene. Households reporting lower income while under COVID-19 restrictions had 5.3 times (95% CI:[3.8,7.4]) the odds of experiencing food insecurity as those with no change in income. Unemployment and food insecurity under COVID-19 restrictions were substantially higher among informal sector workers (70% and 60%, respectively) compared with business/government employees (45% and 37%, respectively). Following the VAT re-introduction, 44% (n = 356) of households using LPG consumed less, and 34% (n = 276) cooked more frequently with polluting fuels. Individuals switching away from LPG under COVID-19 restrictions had 3.0 times (95% CI:[2.1,4.3]) the odds of reducing their LPG consumption due to the VAT re-introduction as those maintaining use of LPG. COVID-19 restrictions and the VAT re-introduction disproportionately negatively affected informal sector workers’ livelihoods. A zero-rating of VAT on LPG can help alleviate deepened inequities in LPG access in Kenya.
Widening inequities in clean cooking fuel use and food security: compounding effects of COVID-19 restrictions and VAT on LPG in a Kenyan informal urban settlement