BACKGROUND: As the number of COVID-19 cases in the US continues to increase and hospitals experience shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE), health care workers have been disproportionately affected. However, since COVID-19 testing is now easily available, there is a need to evaluate whether routine testing should be performed for asymptomatic health care workers. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide a quantitative analysis of the predicted impact that regular testing of health care workers for COVID-19 may have on the prevention of the disease among emergency department patients and staff. METHODS: Using publicly available data on COVID-19 cases and emergency department visits, as well as internal hospital staffing information, we developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of periodic COVID-19 testing of asymptomatic staff members of the emergency department in COVID-19-affected regions. We calculated various transmission constants based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship data, used a logistic model to calculate new infections, and developed a Markov model based on the average incubation period for COVID-19. RESULTS: Our model predicts that after 180 days, with a transmission constant of 1.219e-4 new infections/person2, weekly COVID-19 testing of health care workers would reduce new health care worker and patient infections by approximately 3%-5.9%, and biweekly testing would reduce infections in both by 1%-2.1%. At a transmission constant of 3.660e-4 new infections/person2, weekly testing would reduce infections by 11%-23% and biweekly testing would reduce infections by 5.5%-13%. At a lower transmission constant of 4.067e-5 new infections/person2, weekly and biweekly COVID-19 testing for health care workers would result in an approximately 1% and 0.5%-0.8% reduction in infections, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Periodic COVID-19 testing for emergency department staff in regions that are heavily affected by COVID-19 or are facing resource constraints may significantly reduce COVID-19 transmission among health care workers and previously uninfected patients.
Evaluating the Need for Routine COVID-19 Testing of Emergency Department Staff: Quantitative Analysis