Immune waning is key to the timely anticipation of COVID-19 long-term dynamics. We assess the impact of periodic vaccination campaigns using a compartmental epidemiological model with multiple age structures and parameterised using empiric time-dependent vaccine protection data. Despite the inherent uncertainty, we show that vaccination on its own, especially if restricted to individuals over 60 years old, seems insufficient to prevent a large number of hospital admissions.
Modelling long-term COVID-19 hospital admission dynamics using immune protection waning data