Objective To recognize the development pattern of COVID-19 coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and to predict the development trend of the epidemic in three categories: the country, Hubei province, and areas outside Hubei province Methods The BloComp model was used to fit existing data With the estimated parameters, we simulated future epidemic development Results The pattern of virus transfer among different populations in Hubei province was significantly different from that outside Hubei province It is predicted by the C-SEIR model that the time when the number of confirmed cases fell to zero in Hubei province and areas outside Hubei will be May 2020 and April 2020, respectively Conclusions The epidemic situation will end at the end of May 2020 Adequate medical resources investment and more comprehensive and accurate investigation of suspected people play important roles in controlling the epidemic situation
Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in Hubei province and areas outside Hubei province/ 湖北省及中国其他地区COVID-19疫情分析