From the Document: Iran is not expected to cede its consolidation in Syria, despite its economic difficulties and the danger of extensive popular protest related to the coronavirus pandemic But it is possible that Iran will be forced to reduce its entrenchment activity in Syria, at least temporarily, mainly for economic reasons Against this backdrop, the question arises: could Iran try to take advantage of Israel's preoccupation with the coronavirus crisis to ignite a large scale conflict, especially through a strong response to Israeli air strikes against Iranian and Shiite targets in Syria and Iraq? The Iranian regime might hope that such a response could divert the Iranian public's attention from the distress of the coronavirus crisis;make it clear to Israel that Iran will no longer stay silent in the face of the Israeli attacks;strengthen its standing in Syria and Iraq;and present as part of the retaliation for the killing of Qasem Soleimani But the likelihood of this scenario is limited: Iran has never responded strongly to the Israeli air strikes, and on a few occasions has settled for a modest, indecisive response The reason for this is twofold: the Iranian air force cannot match the Israeli air force;and broad use against Israel of the large missile arsenals in Iran and those in the hands of Hezbollah could lead to a harsh Israeli response, perhaps even with American backing COVID-19 (Disease);Epidemics;Geopolitics
Iran, the Coronavirus Crisis, and the Consolidation in Syria