Between March and May 2020, Japan experienced a lockdown due to the COVID-19 crisis. Empty roads possibly triggered speed-related traffic violations that caused fatal motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). Using police data on the monthly number of fatal MVCs between January 2010 and February 2020 in which motor vehicle drivers were at fault, we forecasted the numbers of fatal MVCs due to the speed-related violations during the lockdown and compared these with those observed. We also compared the observed to forecasted using the ratio of the number of speed-related fatal MVCs to that of non-speed related fatal MVCs. The observed numbers of speed-related fatal MVCs were within the 95% CIs of the forecasted numbers. The observed ratio was higher than the forecasted ratio in April (p=0.016). In the second month of the lockdown, drivers were more likely to commit speed-related violations that caused fatal MVCs than before the lockdown.
COVID-19 lockdown and fatal motor vehicle collisions due to speed-related traffic violations in Japan: a time-series study