Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to control the epidemic growth. We formulate a minimal epidemic evolution model that takes into account these components. The previous and posterior evolutions to the quarantine policy are modeled in a separate way by considering different complexities parameters in each stage. Application of this model to COVID-19 data in different countries is implemented. Estimations of the infected peak time-occurrence and epidemic saturation values as well as possible post-quarantine scenarios are analyzed over the basis of the model, reported data, and the fraction of the population that adopts the quarantine policy.
Minimal epidemic model considering external infected injection and governmental quarantine policies: Application to COVID-19 pandemic