To explore early prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 ï¼COVID-19ï¼ outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis. The data of early outbreak of COVID-19 were collected from the World Health Organizationï¼covering countries of the Chinaï¼United Statesï¼United Kingdomï¼Australiaï¼Serbia and Italy. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered ï¼SEIRï¼ model was generalized and then its parameters were optimized. According to the parameters in the basic infection number expressionï¼the sensitivity in the system dynamics model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the protection rateï¼infection rate and average quarantine time on the early spread of the outbreak. Based on the analysis resultsï¼targeted prevention and control measures for the early outbreak of COVID-19 were proposed. The generalized SEIR model had a good fit for the early prediction and evaluation of COVID-19 outbreaks in six countries. The spread of COVID-19 was mainly affected by the protection rateï¼infection rate and average quarantine time. The improvement of the protection rate in the first ays was the most important:the greater the protection rateï¼the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The infection rate in the first 5 days was the most critical:the smaller the infection rateï¼the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The average quarantine time in the first 5 days was very important:the shorter the average quarantine timeï¼the fewer the number of confirmed cases. Through the comparison of key parameters of six countriesï¼Australia and China had implemented strict epidemic prevention policiesï¼which had resulted in good epidemic prevention effects. In the early stage of the outbreakï¼it is necessary to improve the protection rateï¼shorten the average quarantine timeï¼and implement strict isolation policies to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Exploring early prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis