The decline in economic activities and tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the pressure on the environment and protected area (PA) systems to some extent. However, the financial losses within nature-based tourism due to travel restrictions and park closures will negatively impact tourism income-dependent PAs' management effectiveness. This exploratory study incorporates a risk-assessment framework to investigate and provide first insights into the pandemic's influence on the delivery of management outputs in Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia. Although in 2020, this PA faced a 75% decline in overall revenue compared to the year before, analysis suggests that, in the short term, conservation-related outputs are least affected. Visitor management and PA efforts to support the local community's sustainable development are the most severely impacted first-order outputs. Third-order nature-based tourism-related outputs face average to high risks. This study's risk-assessment framework provides a starting point for a post-pandemic reassessment of the delivery of PA management outputs and decision-making about output prioritisation and resource allocation. Results suggest several new avenues for research.
Protected area management effectiveness and COVID-19: The case of Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia