In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of complete lockdown on COVID-19 infection in India This study obtained COVID-19 data on daily confirmed, recovered, and deaths for 21 days and have implemented the exponential growth model to predict future cases and study the role of lockdown in reducing the number of confirmed COVID 19 cases and deaths The mathematical model was used to calculate the average reproduction number and herd immunity Initially, the curve of confirmed cases and deaths grows exponentially;but later, the government-enforced lockdown has helped in curtailing the growth of the curve The preventive measures may have averted around 4,31,915 confirmed cases and 32,856 deaths till May 3, 2020 The reproduction rate was estimated at 2 56 during the pre-lockdown period and is reduced to 1 56 during lockdown period It is also observed that the number of COVID-19 patients in a government hospital in India as on May 3 would have been on an average of 15 cases per hospital if it grows exponentially However, due to lockdown, it has reduced to the level of 2 cases per hospital The number of confirmed cases grew around 19 percent during the pre-lockdown period of March 14-24, 2020, and stabilizes at the same pace till April 5 Post-April 5, the decline in the growth rate of confirmed cases reached as low as 10 percent Results indicate that the preventive measures taken at the early stages have successfully helped in preventing a large number of deaths and infected cases in India
Assessing the impact of complete lockdown on COVID-19 infections in India and its burden on public health facilities. (Special Issue: COVID-19 and demographic impact.)