The real-time reproduction number $(R_{t})$ of COVID19 in 77 provinces of Thailand during January-May 2020 are obtained by fitting a modified SEIR model to the actual data reported by the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) The spread of COVID-19 in Thailand is the most rapid in March 2020, when the number of daily new confirmed cases (DNCC) rises to above 100 cases per day During this period, the calculated Rt is above 3 At the beginning of April 2020 following the lockdown, the calculated Rt drops sharply to below 1 and the number of DNCC decays progressively until it reaches a single digit in mid-May 2020 The model is also used to forecast the COVID-19 situation of every province in Thailand under different scenarios It is scheduled to automatically re-fit to new data reported daily by MoPH so that Rt and the forecast results keep the users up-to-date in near real-time © 2020 IEEE
Monitoring the COVID-19 Situation in Thailand