We observe that a residue R of the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 which has mutated in one or more of the current Variants of Concern or Interest or under Monitoring rarely participates in a backbone hydrogen bond if R lies in the S1 subunit and usually participates in one if R lies in the S2 subunit. A partial explanation for this based upon free energy is explored as a potentially general principle in the mutagenesis of viral glycoproteins. This observation could help target future vaccine cargos for the evolving coronavirus as well as more generally. A study of the Delta and Omicron variants suggests that Delta was an energetically necessary intermediary in the evolution from Wuhan-Hu-1 to Omicron.
Mutagenic distinction between the receptor-binding and fusion subunits of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein