Nowadays, one of the top priorities for public health is estimating the effectiveness of protective measures to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic A promising way to explore various protective measures and to estimate the potential benefits and costs of a variety of options is to use computer modeling In this paper, we introduce a new infection transmission model and examine protective measures as intervention options We calibrate and apply our model to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic situation in the city of Muenster, Germany We implement our model on top of various locomotion models in the Vadere simulation framework Experiments with our approach show that social distancing can reduce the peak attack rates by up to 85%, while self-isolation or household quarantine can have a significant impact by delaying the epidemic peak Furthermore, combining social distancing, self-quarantine and school closures can greatly mitigate the spread of the epidemic © 2020 EUROSIS-ETI
Simulating infection transmission: A case study of COVID-19