Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) on Friday revised its forecast for Taiwan's GDP growth in 2010 upwards to 4.99 percent, 0.33 percentage points higher than its previous projection made last December. Wang Lee-rong, director of the CIER's Center for Economic Forecasting, attributed the revision to growing private-sector investment and increased exports amid a recovering economy. She warned, however, that if the government decides to wind down the economic stimulus measures it has used to combat the global economic slump or lower public investment to curb its budget deficit, Taiwan's growth rate could fall to 4.08 percent in 2010. The economic research body also forecast that Taiwan's GDP should grow 6.55 percent in the second quarter of the year, 4.01 percent in Q3, and 1.08 in Q4, while unemployment for the year should average 5.5 percent. Weaker growth experienced in Q4 could continue into 2011, Wang said, with the CIER revising its growth forecast for next year downwards to 4.09 percent from 4.30 percent. Wang said inflationary pressures should be moderate in 2010, with consumer prices expected to rise 1.71 percent and wholesale prices projected to increase by 5.76 percent. She stressed, however, that the CIER's projections were on the conservative side and had not taken into account the impact of a planned economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China and a possible appreciation of the Chinese yuan. Wang predicted that the yuan will gain in value in June when the G20 holds a summit of finance ministers and central bankers, and she expected that if China's currency become stronger, the Taiwan dollar would also appreciate. She did not believe, though, that the yuan would appreciate too rapidly in a short period of time. The CIER forecast that the Taiwan dollar will average 31.299 against the greenback in 2010 and that it will continue rising in 2011. Meanwhile, Wang warned that the government's finances would worsen if an industrial innovation bill, which slashes the corporate income tax rate to 17 percent (from the current 20 percent) , passes the Legislative Yuan, an outcome that could affect public investment in the future. 