As the economy begins to shift gears from dismal to slightly improved, the travel industry sees some reason for hope -- but not much. The U.S. Travel Association expects travel spending in the United States to decline by nearly 9 percent this year, to $705 billion, which includes domestic business and leisure travel as well as spending by international visitors. Spending is expected to increase by 6 percent in 2010, but that does not make up for the large dip in 2009. 'I describe these numbers as being less bad -- but they're certainly not good,' said Suzanne D. Cook, senior vice president for research at the trade group. While some parts of the travel industry have survived the downturn fairly well -- car rental companies have reduced fleets, for instance, and cruise ship lines have adjusted itineraries -- the industry is bracing for more modest spending on travel for years to come. One factor keeping optimism in check is tight controls on business travel. The National Business Travel Association calculates that American companies spent $261 billion on business travel (both domestic and international) in 2008, a $44 billion increase since 1998. But the group expects that amount to increase by only $4 billion from 2008 to 2013, creating challenges for an industry that has relied heavily on American expense accounts in the past. 'We're not overly bullish on business travel spending,' said Kenneth McGill, a research consultant for the group. 'The recovery is real. It already seems to be taking hold. But it's going to be slow and tough going.' The group's five-year forecast anticipates that business travel spending by other countries, particularly China, will account for a growing slice of the global pie in the coming years, offering relief to multinational brands like hotel chains that benefit from spending abroad. Domestically, government spending on travel is one bright spot for the industry, said Mike Koetting, chief operating officer for Carlson Wagonlit Travel North America, a travel management company. But in general, he described the outlook for late 2009 and early 2010 as less a recovery than 'things have stopped getting worse.' 'I think the new normal is generally tighter policies,' Koetting said. 'More pretrip approvals, more focus on advance purchase, more focus on the use of preferred suppliers, less use of business travel seats.' 