A conservative businessman is comfortably ahead in the polls as Chile prepares for a presidential election Sunday that could end 20 years of rule by the center-left coalition that brought democracy and prosperity to this country of 17 million people. Sebastian Pinera, 60, a billionaire who owns a stake in Lan Airlines and other enterprises, has pledged to fight crime and manage government funds better. A poll released last week by the Center for the Study of Contemporary Reality showed Pinera with 44.1 percent of the vote; the ruling coalition's candidate, Eduardo Frei, had 31 percent. Such an outcome would not give Pinera enough votes to avoid a runoff, but polls also give him the edge over Frei in a second round of voting in January. A Pinera presidency would give the right a rare victory in South America, which this decade has elected a slew of leftist leaders, including populists such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and European-style socialists such as Chile's current president, Michelle Bachelet. Bachelet, in fact, defeated Pinera four years ago. Her popularity jumped this year to 80 percent, according to a poll by the Santiago-based researcher Adimark, as the government built day-care centers and tens of thousands of homes. Her administration's $4 billion stimulus package, among the world's biggest, helped create jobs and mitigated the effects on Chile of the worldwide economic crisis. Under Concertacion, the broad coalition of socialists and Christian Democrats that has ruled since it unseated Gen. Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship in 1990, Chile's economy has been Latin America's most notable success story. But Concertacion has been unable to transfer Bachelet's popularity to Frei, 67, who was president from 1994 to 2000. Polls show that Chileans have more confidence in Pinera to do a better job tackling crime, transportation and education problems. Pinera, whom Forbes magazine lists as Chile's third-richest man, campaigns as a prudent administrator who would improve the country's economy. 'I want to say to all Chileans, `The era of Concertacion has passed,' ' he told thousands of supporters at his campaign's closing rally near Santiago's Catholic University. 'Chileans know in the depths of their hearts that a long, long time ago, Concertacion ran out of steam.' Marixa Telleria, 35, a store clerk, is unsure who will receive her vote. She said she liked Bachelet's government programs. She also likes the charisma of Marco Enriquez-Ominami, 36, a former film director and lawmaker who split with Bachelet's socialists and is running third in the polls. But lately, Telleria said, she has warmed to Pinera's message. 'If you are in the middle class, we do not have much help,' she said. 'The government does not give us much in the way of solutions.' She and some other voters said they are not bothered that some of Pinera's closest advisers worked in Pinochet's government. The candidate's brother, Jose Pinera, was the architect of pension reforms under Pinochet. Sebastian Pinera said that he voted against the regime in the 1999 plebiscite but that it is time to bury the past. Political analysts say that if Concertacion loses, a Pinera government would tinker with -- but not overhaul -- Chile's economic model. Andres Bianchi, a former Central Bank governor who has served in Concertacion administrations, said conservative Chilean politicians know that to be politically viable they have to preserve popular social programs. 'No one is very worried about who is going to win on Sunday,' Bianchi said. 'Movements from one extreme to another are clearly something unlikely to happen.' 