JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A RecessionBy Michael Snyder Our longer-run indicators, however, continue to suggest an elevated risk that the expansion is nearing its end, and our preferred model now puts the probability of recession within three years at an eye-catching 76%. The good news is that the economists at JP Morgan believe that a recession will probably not hit us within the next six months. But due to steadily weakening economic conditions, they are convinced that one is almost certain to strikewithin the next few years When we first wrote, only manufacturing sentiment was signaling an above-average probability of imminent recession, they said. But recent weakening in the Richmond Fed services survey and the ISM nonmanufacturing index have now pushed the nonmanufacturing sentiment probability up somewhat as well. In the short term, the note says that the 6-month likelihood is only 5%, but within a year it stands at 23%, in two years 48%, and in three years the eye-popping 76%. To be honest, I believe that this assessment is far too optimistic, and it appears that researchers at Citigroup agree with me. According to them, there is a 65 percent chance that the U.S. economy will plunge into recession by the end of next year. Last week, Janet Yellen was asked about thisduring testimony before Congress In testimony before Congress Joint Economic Committee, Yellen was asked by Rep. Pat Tiberi about a piece of research released by Citigroups rates strategy team Monday. Specifically, Tiberi, an Ohio Republican, wanted to know what Yellen made of Citis conclusion that there is a 65 percent chance of a U.S. recession in 2016. The economists said that they would assign about a 65 percent likelihood of a recession in the United States in 2016. Now, 65 percent sounds high to me, but Im not an economist and Im not the Fed chair. But zero risk might be too low as well. So what would you assign a risk level of a recession next year? Tiberi asked. So how did Yellen respond? Her answerwas about what you would expect I absolutely wouldnt see it as anything approaching 65 percent, the central banker said. This reminds me so much of what former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said when he was asked a similar questionback in 2008 The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession. Later on, when the official numbers finally came out and all the revisions were done, we learned that the U.S. economy was already in a recession when he made that statement. And when it is all said and done this time around, I believe that history will show that a new global recession had already started when Janet Yellen made her statement. But dont just take my word for it. British banking giant HSBC is the largest bank in the western world, and they recently announced that the global economy has already entered a dollar recession. According to HSBC, total global trade has fallen 8.4 percent so far this year, and global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars is down 3.4 percent. If their figures are correct, a new global recession has definitely begun. And without a doubt, we have already seen a tremendous amount of global financial turmoil. This is something that I highlighted in my recent article entitled 27 Major Global Stocks Markets That Have Already Crashed By Double Digit Percentages In 2015. When Zero Hedge republished my article, several excellent charts were added that really illustrate how bad things have gotten, and I wanted to share a couple of them with you. Of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the world, an astounding 47 of them (more than half) are down at least 10 percent year to date. This first chart shows which ones fall into that category Another chart that was added to the article by Zero Hedge shows how decoupled U.S. stocks have become from global stocks overall. As you can see, U.S. stocks are not too far from recent highs at the moment, but global stocks overall are solidly in bear market territory Since mid-2015, trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has been wiped out globally. Let that sink in for a moment. The debate is over. The major financial collapse that so many warned was imminent has actually happened. It is just that U.S. stocks have not gotten the memo yet. Up to this point they have defied gravity, but at some point U.S. stocks and world stocks will converge once again. And if you want to see many of the reasons why U.S. stocks will soon take a big tumble, just check out this article. There is no way that U.S. stocks will be able to defy the underlying economic fundamentals that are pummeling other global markets for much longer. Just like in 2008, a global stock market slide that starts elsewhere will eventually hit the United States. It is just a matter of time. But once again, even though U.S. stocks are doing okay for the moment, that doesnt negate the fact that more than half of all major global stock indexes are down by double digit percentages year to date. We have not seen numbers like this since the great stock market crash of 2008, and it seems abundantly clear to me that the great financial shaking that so many warned was coming in 2015 is already happening. And if JP Morgan and Citigroup are correct, what we have seen so far is just a preview of some very troubling times ahead. Michael Snyder is a writer, speaker and activist who writes and edits his own blogs The American Dream and Economic Collapse Blog. Follow him on Twitter here. Im sure J.P.Morgan and Shitigroup would love to see it happen, so that they can rake in $Zillions. Ive been hearing the same doomsaying for years from everyone who stands to gain from an induced collapse: This is the year everything turns to dust 