Throngs of bargain hunters kicked off the holiday shopping season Friday, buying Paula Deen cookware, Zhu Zhu toy hamsters and flat-panel TVs. But even as they filled parking lots, waited in lines overnight and loaded shopping bags, they talked of restraint, drawing names for gifts, paying cash and buying the basics. Retailers have been looking for signs of confidence, but on Friday some shoppers spoke of caution. 'You can't take anything for granted,' said Barbara Martin, a diabetes educator visiting from Charlottesville, Va., who was at Best Buy in Rockville, Md., at 5 a.m. looking for deals on a Global Positioning System device for her son and a flat-panel TV for her brother. 'I'm not stupid enough to think I couldn't lose my job tomorrow. We're going to cut back on spending this year for the holidays by about 75 percent.' According to Accenture, a consulting firm, thicker crowds were expected at the annual post-Thanksgiving Day tradition known as Black Friday. It said 52 percent of consumers would be out shopping compared with 42 percent last year. The first hard sales numbers for Black Friday are not expected until Sunday. For the full holiday season, the National Retail Federation said it expects sales to fall 1 percent this year, to $437.6 billion, compared with a 3.4 percent decline last year. Many shoppers Friday said that -- despite having jobs and hearing projections of a recovery -- they were more uncertain about the economy this year than they last. Their purchases, they said, would be curtailed. They would buy for immediate family but not extended, they said, sticking to a list and forgoing any impulse buying, using cash instead of credit cards. And parents said they would buy gifts for the children, but not each other. But retailers were looking for reasons to be optimistic -- healthy bottom lines and a sustained economic recovery require robust consumer spending. And some local store managers said they were encouraged by the turnout. 'Last year, retail had fallen off a cliff,' said Karla Martin, a retail analyst in the San Francisco office of management consulting firm Booz & Company. 'This year, they're not falling off a cliff, but they're clinging on the side of it with their fingernails.' Saks Fifth Avenue chief executive Stephen Sadove said shoppers should expect to see aggressive promotions during Black Friday weekend and throughout the holidays, but that retailers are no longer engaging in the widespread discounting that sapped profits last Christmas. Saks offered extra reward points to its most loyal customers Friday and slashed some prices by as much as 60 percent. Many retailers have trimmed inventory -- Saks cut merchandise by about 20 percent -- in the hopes that by stocking fewer items, they can sell more at full price. That means many of the season's most popular items may sell more quickly. 'The industry has adapted,' he said. Staff writer Annie Gowen contributed to this report. 