The ambitious debt-reduction plan before President Barack Obama's bipartisan commission is likely to get a majority but fall short on Friday of the votes needed to send it to Congress for a vote. Yet in drawing greater-than-expected support, the proposed overhaul of taxes and spending has attracted interest among some in the White House and Congress as a blueprint for future action as the nation grapples with the fiscal crisis posed by high health care costs and an aging population. On Thursday, 10 of the 18 members on the commission had endorsed the package put forward this week by the panel's co-chairmen, former Sen. Alan K. Simpson, R-Wyo., and Erskine B. Bowles, the former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton. But five members publicly announced their opposition and a sixth -- Andy Stern, former president of the Service Employees International Union -- privately told the chairmen he would vote no. That tally assures that when the commission meets on Friday, the plan will fall short of the 14-vote threshold for congressional action that Obama set in his order in February creating the commission. Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., confirmed on Thursday that he would vote against the package. While expected, his opposition is a blow to supporters of the sort of changes the plan entails -- overhauling the tax code, federal health care programs and Social Security -- given his role as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee with jurisdiction over taxes and benefits spending. But late Thursday, Sen. Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the second-ranking Senate Democratic leader, said he would support the plan. Durbin is close to Obama, since both served in the Senate together from Illinois. And earlier Thursday, two of the Senate's most conservative Republicans -- Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Michael D. Crapo of Idaho -- said they would join Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who endorsed the plan Wednesday, in voting yes. But all three of the House Republicans on the commission are expected to vote no, which would expose a divide among congressional Republicans over how to address the nation's debt. Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin reiterated his opposition in a breakfast meeting with reporters Thursday. Ryan, who will become the House Budget Committee chairman in January now that Republicans have won a majority of House seats in the midterm elections, objected that the plan would not repeal the new health care law nor replace Medicare with a voucher system for future beneficiaries. Opposed for similar reasons are Reps. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, a member of the House Republican leadership, and Dave Camp of Michigan, who will become chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which like the Senate Finance Committee has jurisdiction over taxes, health care programs and Social Security. The split between House and Senate Republicans in part reflects the new roles the House lawmakers will have as leaders of a majority; while Republicans picked up more seats in the Senate, they remain a minority there. House Republicans, having campaigned as the conservative alternative to the Obama administration, say they are obligated to try to translate their ideological vision into policy rather than compromise immediately. Besides the three Republican senators, the other six supporters of the plan include five of the six private citizens on the commission -- the two chairmen along with the Honeywell International chief, David Cote, a Republican; a former business executive, Ann Fudge, a political independent; and Alice M. Rivlin, a Democrat who was a budget director to Congress and then to Clinton. Of the six Democratic lawmakers on the commission, two announced their positions Wednesday -- the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, in support and Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a liberal from Illinois, opposed. Two Democrats remained undecided publicly: Reps. John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, the House Budget Committee chairman who lost his re-election bid in November, and Xavier Becerra of California. 