The U.S. economy grew even slower than previously thought in the third quarter, but most economists think it will end the year on a stronger note, raising the question of how soon the recovery will put a dent in unemployment. The Commerce Department said Monday that the nation's gross domestic product grew 2.2 percent from July through September -- its third and final revision of this all-inclusive measure of economic activity. The growth rate has been revised downward twice, from its initial 3.5 percent estimate in October and a 2.8 percent reading last month. But the still-positive number follows four straight quarterly declines and suggests the economy is mending. 'We've come a long way since last year at this time when the ultra-pessimists thought we were nearly in a depression,' said Brian Bethune, an economist with IHS Global Insight, who thinks the GDP will grow about 4 percent in the last three months of 2009. In another encouraging sign, the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales rose 7.4 percent in November for the third straight monthly gain, raising hopes that the housing downturn may be coming to an end. Retail sales also showed momentum in October and November, raising hopes for solid sales in the holiday season. Slight dips in the November unemployment rate to 10 percent nationwide and 12.3 percent in California could signal a turn in the job market as well. But while the economy is no longer spiraling down, it is not clear how strongly it is headed up. 'I think we'll be 'driving sideways' in both the California economy and the U.S. economy,' said UC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen. He fears that the GDP won't grow strongly enough in 2010 to bring down unemployment. Bethune thinks GDP growth will range between just 2 and 2.5 percent next year. 'It's a half-speed recovery,' he said. High unemployment will keep a lid on consumer spending -- which accounts for 70 percent of all economic activity -- and lead to a long, slow recovery, said Bart van Ark, chief economist for the Conference Board. But Jon Fisher, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and adjunct professor of business at the University of San Francisco, said stronger-than-expected home construction and other factors, including a growing strength in the technology industry, will cause unemployment to fall more sharply than commonly forecast. PricewaterhouseCoopers recently reported a fourth-quarter rise in initial public offerings, which could embolden venture capital investors and spur startups. 'We expect the momentum to continue to build in 2010,' said PricewaterhouseCoopers spokesman Scott Gehsmann. California's housing market may also have hit bottom, said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University, who thinks the state's builders may register a mild uptick in new construction next year. But a troubling percentage of mortgages remain either delinquent or in foreclosure, said Wells Fargo economist Scott Anderson, adding that the housing market is being stabilized by loan-modification programs, low interest rates and federal assistance for home buyers. He likened the federal assistance to 'a patient who becomes addicted to painkillers.' Meanwhile, every economic interest seems to be seeking federal aid. Scott Hauge, president of Small Business California, cheered recent congressional action to temporarily extend Small Business Administration loan subsidies to help little firms survive the credit crunch. 'If we're going to create jobs, we need capital,' he said. 