Fresh signs of a nascent economic recovery came from hard-hit Europe on Thursday, with Germany and France unexpectedly becoming the first major industrialized nations to officially pull out of the worst global recession in generations. Though their recoveries were modest by virtually any standard and may yet stall in the months ahead, the surprising bounce back to growth in Europe's largest economies comes on the heels of steadily rising economic optimism across the globe. Analysts are pointing to improving indicators in the United States, China and even Japan, the world's second-largest economy, which some observers predict is set to announce its own return to growth in the coming days. Though a host of other European economies -- including Britain, Italy and Spain -- are still mired in painful recessions, contractions are moderating even in many of those nations, an indication that they too may be close to rebounding. It underscores, analysts say, how ramped-up government stimulus spending around the globe appears to be having at least some of its desired effects. A significant rebound in the global economy could both help and hurt the United States. Growth abroad could fuel an eagerly anticipated uptick in U.S. exports, boosting the manufacturing sector and potentially channeling more investment into U.S. soil. Yet too quick an increase in global demand could spark a painful price spike for commodities such as oil, driving up inflation before the United States and other nations have fully emerged from recession. In the United States, the Federal Reserve this week signaled that it sees the American recession easing. The central bank said that it will begin pulling back from two years of unprecedented intervention in the economy this October. Even countries that were spiraling downward only a few months ago, such as South Korea, appear to be on more stable ground. The International Monetary Fund this week predicted that the South Korean recession, while severe, may not be as deep this year as originally thought. The turnaround in Germany and France drove up major stock indexes from Seoul to Paris to Moscow on Thursday, while the euro gained more ground against the dollar. The Dow Jones closed up 36.58 points, to 9398.19. 'We don't know whether these numbers are going to hold out in the long run, but they do seem to indicate that we're reaching a bottom a lot sooner than we thought,' said Raj Badiani, senior economist for IHS Global Insight in London. 'It looks like the worst might be over.' Yet analysts including Badiani caution that it is still far too early, and that the indicators remain too weak, to declare the global recession dead. Recent gains, particularly in Europe, mask the still-ample threat of more pain ahead. In Germany, economic activity jumped 0.3 percent from April to June compared with the previous three months after a 3.5 percent quarterly contraction in the beginning of the year. Though detailed economic data have yet to be released in Germany, the rebound in the second quarter there, analysts said, came partly on the back of consumer spending related to government-sponsored programs, such as a cash for clunkers plan, that are set to expire soon. In addition, the German government has so far cushioned job losses at home through state-sponsored corporate incentives that are also due to run out, leading many analysts to predict a further surge in the unemployment rate there in the months ahead. Economists also do not discount a fresh wave of bank rescues in Europe, where financial officials are still under pressure to do more to force the clean up of balance sheets at ailing institutions. Recent signs of recovery will also be tested if, as many observers believe, unemployment rates across Europe continue to edge higher. With many analysts also predicting a 'jobless recovery' in the United States, such as the one that occurred following the 2001 recession, a projected global turnaround later this year may be more visible in statistical calculations than in consumer pocket books around the world. 