Typhoon Morakot and other extraneous factors have combined to frustrate progress in relations across the Taiwan Strait recently but have not stifled positive momentum, and progress in cross-strait ties is expected to resume in the coming quarter, a U.S. scholar forecast in a recent report. The online quarterly report, titled China-Taiwan Relations: Temporarily in the Doldrums, was authored by David G. Brown, a cross-strait affairs expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. According to Brown, it is largely extraneous developments, rather than policy changes, that have impeded progress in cross-strait ties in the July-September quarter. 'Typhoon Morakot consumed public and government attention on Taiwan for three weeks in August and then led to Cabinet changes affecting some of the senior officials handling cross-Strait economic issues,' Brown wrote. At the same time, Morakot occasioned two positive developments, Brown argued. First, Beijing was prompt and generous in providing financial and practical aid. Second, the U.S. also provided aid, which included the first deployment of U.S. military aircraft to Taiwan since 1979. 'This potentially sensitive action was handled discreetly, with Beijing portraying it as a humanitarian action, the U.S. planes leaving as soon as their humanitarian work was concluded, and neither Taipei nor Washington gave the action any broader significance, ' Brown wrote. Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu's decision to invite the Dalai Lama to console Morakot victims presented a dilemma for Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou and for Beijing. 'In the end, both sides handled the issue in a way that delayed some minor cross-Strait events but did not significantly disrupt relations,' Brown observed. He predicted that progress in improving cross-strait relations should resume in the coming months. Brown suggested, however, that the easy agreements were concluded in the first three meetings between top officials of Taipei's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and Beijing's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). More difficult issues involving the usual balancing of interests in bilateral trade negotiations have affected the pace of talks on both the memorandums of understanding (MOUs) covering banking, insurance and securities and the proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA), Brown contended. The financial MOUs, which were to have been completed in late June, are still pending. The financial regulatory systems to be defined in the MOUs must be in place before the two sides can reciprocally approve operations by financial services firms. The MOUs are expected to be signed before the end of the year, Brown said, citing China's Taiwan Affairs Office. Meanwhile, Brown pointed out that the fourth round of SEF-ARATS talks is scheduled to be held late this year and should result in additional agreements, possibly including ones on fisheries, agricultural product standards, product testing, double taxation and a discussion on ECFA. On cross-strait economic ties, Brown said bilateral trade is beginning to recover from the precipitous decline caused by the global financial crisis and the first group of Chinese investments in Taiwan, although small, have been approved. Citing tallies compiled by Taiwan's Investment Commission, the report said eight Chinese investments totaling US$769,000 were made during July and August with Fujia Newland Computers making the largest single investment. With cross-strait relations proceeding constructively, the U.S. government's role is limited. Nevertheless, Brown said arms sales are one important exception that needs to be handled in a sophisticated way to support the long-term U.S. interest in a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues. 'It is in the U.S. interest to support a government in Taiwan that is working constructively to consolidate a stable, peaceful cross-strait relationship,' Brown argued. Taipei is requesting arms so it can maintain a 'credible deterrent position' from which to negotiate. Furthermore, as the Ma administration is being criticized at home for not doing enough for Taiwan's defense, Brown wrote, the fact that there has been little concrete evidence of support for Taipei from the Obama administration is calling into question Ma's ability to successfully manage the all important U.S.-Taiwan relationship. 'With Beijing's deployments growing, there is a sound case for the U.S. to move ahead with the Blackhawk sale and to respond favorably to Taiwan's request for the F-16C/D aircraft, which are increasingly seen as a litmus test of U.S. support,' Brown wrote. 