West Hangs Syrian-Style War Over Egypts FutureTony Cartalucci The report would also claim that a Free Egyptian Army was being prepared in neighboring Libya along the Libyan-Egyptian border, where the epicenter of heavily armed sectarian extremists from Al Qaedas Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) began NATO-backed operations against the Libyan government in 2011. While the Al-Akhbar article only cites unnamed sources, recent and escalating violence lends credibility to concern regarding a Syrian-style conflict fueled by foreign interests to destabilize and overthrow the current Egyptian sociopolitical order. The Syrian Connection The recent violence spearheaded by supporters of ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, particularly his Muslim Brotherhood political party and its network of armed militant affiliates, is a cause of particular concern. It was the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria that began receiving cash and backing by the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel as far back as 2007 in preparation for the ongoing armed conflict now raging across Syria for the past 3 years. In Reuters May 6, 2012 article titled, Syrias Muslim Brotherhood rise from the ashes, it stated: The Brotherhood was being directly backed by the US and Israel who were funneling support through the Saudis so as to not compromise the credibility of the so-called Islamic movement. Hersh revealed that members of the Lebanese Saad Hariri clique, then led by Fouad Siniora, had been the go-between for US planners and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Hersh reports the Lebanese Hariri faction had met Dick Cheney in Washington and relayed personally the importance of using the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria in any move against the ruling government: The article would continue by explaining how already in 2007, US and Saudi backing had begun benefiting the Brotherhood: Clearly then, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt which very vocally supported its Syrian counterparts, is benefiting from the same foreign backing that has devastated Syria, and stands poised to serve the same role the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood had played in 2011 in assembling, funding, and arming militant groups across Egypt via its well organized political machine. While many pundits and analysts attempt to portray the Egyptian military as an obedient and reliable client regime for the West, nothing could be further from the truth. The West and its Arab collaborators are attempting to diminish and eventually destroy Iran and its arch of influence stretching from its borders with Afghanistan to the east, across Syria in the West and up to and including the Mediterranean coast in Lebanon. The Egyptian military may be willing to make incremental economic and political concessions with the West to keep substantial aid flowing into its coffers, but is not willing to jeopardize the stability of Egypt and its very survival by serving as part of a sectarian front to fight Iran on the Wests behalf (and here). Rotten Carrot, Broken Stick VICE Magazine reported in an article titled, US Aid Returns to Egypt Amid Wave of Attacks, that: VICE would go on to report that military aid from the United States was eventually delivered after threats to cut it off after the ousting of Morsi by the Egyptian military. While VICE and other Western media outlets attempt to undermine the Egyptian militarys standing in the Arab World by suggesting the US is backing the new military-led government in Cairo, what this dual track policy represents in reality is military aid serving as the carrot while a NATO-backed Syrian-style terrorist campaign serves as the stick. The ultimate goal is to position the Egyptian military in such a way that it can be gradually undermined and removed from its long-standing role in Egyptian politics, just as has been done in Turkey and just as is being attempted in Thailand through the US-backed regime of Thaksin Shinawatra. In Egypt, the goal of installing a Muslim Brotherhood-led government and cultivating a culture of sectarian extremism, will expand the Wests ability to wage proxy wars beyond Egypts borders in nations like Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and eventually Russias Caucasus region and Chinas western most provinces. It is also, however, a goal the current government in Cairo wants nothing to do with. Taking the Carrot and Fighting Back Against the Stick The geopolitical influence of the West is in visible decline. Its stumbling victory in Libya, its failure in Syria, and its multiplying complications in Ukraine not only are undermining its allies confidence in various partnerships and alliances, but has changed the dynamics with which the Wests enemies respond to its traditional carrot and stick approach. Military aid in exchange for the Egyptian militarys abdication from politics and the radicalization, division, and destruction of Egypts existing sociopolitical order is a formula so unbalanced and lacking in incentives that it reeks of the Wests weakness. This ill-conceived formula, already failing elsewhere with vivid, cautionary examples for the government in Cairo to consider, failed before it even began on Egyptian soil. Cairos decision to move decisively against the Muslim Brotherhood and its network of militant affiliates before widespread conflict began indicated that the government was no longer concerned about opinions in Washington, London, or Brussels, nor with the combined influence of their respective media machines. Failure to curb militancy in fear of global public opinion would only lead to a window of opportunity to sow the seeds of a destructive and protracted Syrian-style conflict a conflict Cairo appears determined to prevent. Evidence of a Free Egyptian Army forming in neighboring Libya may be lacking, but the precedent, motivation, and will for the West to be backing such a conspiracy certainly are not. Egypts decision to disregard the opinion of a now waning West serves as a model for other nations being offered similar rotting carrots and broken sticks. Egypts future now depends on the perseverance of its leaders in Cairo persecuting a preemptive campaign against the Syrian-style war the West is now more overtly hanging over Egypts future. Tony Cartalucci, Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine New Eastern Outlook, where this first appeared. 