The mayoral election in Taipei City in late November may revolve around local issues, but a global storm making life difficult for all incumbents seeking new terms could play just as important a role in the race to govern Taiwan's capital. Incumbents around the world have struggled in elections since the credit tsunami shook the globe in late 2008 and early 2009, the Democrats' shellacking in the United States on Nov. 2 being only the latest example of the perils of being in power and running for a new term in office. Taipei City Mayor Hau Lung-bin of Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang Party (KMT) can fully empathize with the challenge of confronting the 'curse of incumbency' as he fights an arduous battle to stay on after the Nov. 27 election. 'The voters don't have any major issues with Hau as a mayor because he has done some good things to improve the city. But the perceived poor performance of the central government, the slow economic recovery, and a very capable opponent are what is dragging him down,said Chen Chao-jian, an associate professor in Ming Chuan University's Graduate School of Public Affairs. The spillover effect of public dissatisfaction with the central government under the KMT and the low approval rating of President Ma Ying-jeou -- who was Hau's predecessor as Taipei mayor -- has prompted even pro-KMT pan-blue supporters to wonder if life would be better off with someone else at the helm, he said. Still, Hau should benefit from running in what is a true KMT stronghold -- Ma won re-election as mayor in 2002 with a margin of 28 percentage points over his challenger. But city administration problems have added to Hau's woes of being an incumbent following the global economic meltdown, and made the races outcome unpredictable. In the last four years, the 58-year-old former environmental minister has helped increase Taipei's international exposure by holding two major international events -- the Deaflympics in 2009 and the Taipei International Flora Exposition, which formally opened on Nov. 6, just three weeks before the election. He also presided over the opening of the Maokong Gondola, two new Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) lines, and the renovation of the long-neglected Songshan Airport, now renamed Taipei International Airport, which handles flights to the city airports of Tokyo and Shanghai. But these accomplishments have been weighed down by construction problems with the gondola, frequent breakdowns on the Wenhu MRT Line in its first six months of operation, the high cost of the Flora Expo, and a corruption scandal related to the Xinsheng Overpass renovation project involving Hau's top aides. These all have tarnished the public's perception of the mayors leadership and judgment. As the nation's capital and home to 2.6 million people, Taipei is often seen as a 'presidential breeding ground.' The last three presidents -- Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Ma -- all served as Taipei mayor before ascending to Taiwan's political throne. Some green supporters hope Hau's popular Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) challenger Su Tseng-chang, often hailed as a likely presidential candidate, will continue the trend by using the Taipei City mayors office as his stepping stone to the Presidential Office. Best known for his signature shiny, bald head and boyish grin, the seasoned politician is giving Hau good reason to toss and turn at night as the two are locked in a tight battle. According to a Nov. 10 poll of 1,094 respondents conducted by Next TV and Shih Hsin University, the two were locked in a virtual dead heat, with Hau ahead by a 33.4 percent to 33 percent margin and the other third of respondents undecided or unwilling to comment. Among those who identified themselves as swing voters, one-third said they favored Su, while only 19.2 percent sided with Hau. Another poll by the China Times Group released on Nov. 5 saw the race the same way, with Hau nursing a one percentage point lead and 15 percent of the respondents undecided. The poll results indicate that Su, who was premier in 2006 and 2007 and Taipei County magistrate from 1997-2005, could be the second DPP mayor in the traditional KMT stronghold, and the first to win an outright majority of the votes. When Chen Shui-bian was elected mayor in late 1994, he received 43.7 percent of the vote but won because of a split of the pan-blue vote between two candidates. 'The large number of undecided voters indicates Taipei city voters have become more mature, rational, and assertive. They are not bound by party loyalty or easily swayed by rhetoric. They want someone who will take real action to improve the city regardless of his political affiliation,' Chen said. Unlike his 63-year old DPP opponent, Hau also lacks the personal charisma that often wins points with the media and young voters. Although Su is from the southern rural county of Pingtung, he has more of an 'urban appeal' than Hau, who is a Taipei native. Su has successfully attracted young voters by holding hip-hop concerts and tailoring his platform to issues young people care about. A quick look at his campaign's website shows picture after picture of him posing with groups of eager young faces. Despite being a major DPP heavyweight, traditional hardline 'deep-green' rhetoric has been largely absent from Sus campaign. With the slogan 'let Taipei surpass Taipei, ' the campaign abandons the usual tactic of asking voters to take a side on Taiwans sovereignty issue. It focuses instead on social welfare issues such as urban beautification, a better transportation system, improved education, and safer roads. Su comes into the race without any major baggage because of his untarnished past and reputation for good governance. Even though he served as premier under disgraced former DPP President Chen Shui-bian for two years, he has not been sullied by the corruption allegations against Chen's family. With polls showing the race to be virtually deadlocked at the moment, Hau himself admitted that the race is 'critically dangerous.' Tunghai University political science professor Fu Hung-der said that based on past mayoral races in Taipei, a clear frontrunner should have emerged with little more than two weeks to go before Election Day. The fact that the outcome remains ambiguous, he said, was a major warning sign for the Hau camp. Fu believed that independent voters would be the determining factor in the race, unless there were any big events in the final days before the election that swing the pendulum to one side or the other. Incidents such as a sudden breakdown of the freshly inaugurated Luzhou MRT line or a major problem at the Flora Expo in the next two weeks could severely undercut Hau's chance for a second term. For Hau's campaign, getting traditional KMT supporters to the polls to vote for the incumbent is a top priority. 'The polls have spoken. The difference between Hau and Su falls within the margin of error. Hau's victory would be a victory for the people of Taipei City. We are urging all the pan-blue supporters to go out and vote,' said Fang Chiang Tai-chi, Hau's campaign spokesman. KMT Secretary-General King Pu-tsung understands that the close links between Hau and the current administration could deter some disgruntled pan-blue supporters from siding with Hau. In a Nov. 5 interview, King urged the voters to 'be masters of your own city' by making a distinction between the central government and Taipei City. 'No matter how unhappy you are with the central government, there is still a big difference when it comes to electing a city mayor,' he said. By Jenny W. Hsu selfnews Staff Reporter 