Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan Tuesday said the worst of the global recession may be over as the central bank welcomed signs the world economy had stabilised and Asian growth was picking up. Swan said the government's stimulus efforts had helped protect Australia from the downturn but warned of rising unemployment as 'global headwinds' buffet the domestic economy. 'It may well be that globally the worst is behind us,' the government's top economics minister told public broadcaster ABC. 'But there are still very substantial global headwinds affecting economies around the world and also affecting the Australian economy in particular. 'We will see that in the dramatic drop in business investment, we'll see that in the dramatic drop in the terms of trade. Those factors will push up unemployment locally.' Swan's assessment came as the Reserve Bank of Australia said recent data showed 'further signs of stabilisation in the world economy,' and a new report predicted a rebound in domestic growth. The central bank revealed that positive signs in the world economy, particularly Asia, were a factor in its decision this month to leave interest rates on hold at a 49-year low of 3.0 percent. 'Output in the developing countries of East Asia (is) likely to have recorded a substantial increase, underpinned by a pick-up in growth in China,' it said in minutes from its July 7 policy meeting released Tuesday. Independent think-tank Access Economics said Australia would register growth of 0.4 percent in the year to July 2010, while the government projects a 0.5 percent contraction. Australia has so far avoided a technical recession, as defined by two successive quarters of negative growth, posting the strongest figures of any advanced economy during the downturn. Swan attributed the economy's resilience to government stimulus packages totalling more than 50 billion dollars (40.8 billion US) handed out since late last year. 'That's why economic stimulus is important, to support employment and support business,' he said. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd noted 'some positive signs in the global economy' but said the financial crisis was not yet over. 'We're not out of the woods yet and unemployment will continue to rise,' he told reporters. Access Economics said unemployment was likely to peak at 7.5 percent in 2010, up significantly on the current 5.8 percent but a full point down on the official forecast of 8.5 percent. It also stressed the importance of China to Australia, saying the Asian giant's earlier-than-expected recovery had helped lift the outlook since the government's last official forecasts in May. Resource-rich Australia enjoyed a boom period of uninterrupted growth until this year as Chinese demand for its raw materials brought in a stream of export revenue. But Swan said he was not relying on China's turnaround because it was too early to know whether it was sustainable. 'Certainly the recent patterns (in China) have surprised on the upside, and we certainly can't count on that as we go forward and we haven't been counting on that,' he said. China posted stellar growth of 7.9 percent in the second quarter, bouncing back from 6.1 percent in the three months to March after Beijing unveiled a massive 580-billion-dollar stimulus package. 