NATO Hopes for Russian Invasion of UkraineTony Cartalucci Despite paradoxical claims of nuclear-armed Russia invading eastern Ukraine but with Kievs battered, disorganized troops in mismatching uniforms and without daily rations overwhelming these forces, many have chosen to believe that indeed Kievs inability to assert control in Ukraines easternmost provinces is solely because of Russian intervention. The Re-Invasion of Ukraine? Even with the West claiming Russia has already invaded Ukraine, at each juncture of the ongoing conflict, an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine is held up to once again terrify and incense Western audiences as if another invasion is about to take place a re-invasion perhaps. The Business Insider in a July 6, 2014 article titled, Russia Has Effectively Invaded Eastern Ukraine The Question Is How The West Will Respond, claimed (emphasis added): The BBC reported in its article, Ukraine conflict: Fighting flares near city of Luhansk, that: The same article would also report: With Kiev forces encircled in Lugansk and the forces sent to relieve them apparently destroyed a miniature Stalingrad it would seem like Russia has little reason to invade Ukraine. Still the West is intent on salvaging what appears to be an increasingly ineffective Ukrainian army racking up as many civilian casualties as it is defeats on the field of battle. Russia on Sunday accused Ukraine of lobbing a shell over the border and killing a Russian civilian and warned of irreversible consequences, in a sharp escalation of rhetoric that raised fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraines east.The Washington Post, in the wake of Kievs most recent setback in Lugansk, would declare in its article, Russia warns Ukraine of irreversible consequences after cross-border shelling, that: The use of hyperbole allegedly spoken by a single Russian legislator to stoke fears of an impending Russian invasion has been a frequently used ploy by the Western media to manipulate public perception. Quoting obscure former officials in Iran has been used to disingenuously portray the whole of Iranian foreign policy in a particularly unflattering light more than once. The Washington Post would also claim of the Ukrainian conflict: The desire by the West to portray Russia as invading Ukraine is rooted in the belief that it will undermine Russias political leverage and open the doors to more aggressive NATO support for the faltering regime in Kiev. Perceived Russian aggression might make it easier to convince NATO and EU members who have not followed suit in exacting sanctions and condemnation against Russia to begin taking a more anti-Russian stance. Why Russia Doesnt Need to Invade Ukraine Whether or not Russia is already covertly supporting fighters inside of Ukraine has little impact on its unnecessary need to directly invade Ukrainian territory. If Russia is not supporting fighters inside of Ukraine, it appears then that these fighters are more than capable of miring Kievs forces and picking them apart through classical guerrilla warfare on their own. If Russia is already covertly supporting fighters inside of Ukraine, all it needs to do is send more covert aid. The West is already accusing Russia of allowing armored vehicles to move over Russias border with Ukraine what else could Russia do then that would constitute an outright invasion? At any point of the conflict, if Ukraines provocations are not obvious enough, Russia will not benefit from crossing the border into Ukraine. Russias restraint thus far has exposed the Wests responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine as dressed-up imperialism. Surely if ever a conflict warranted humanitarian intervention, it would be Kievs assault on eastern Ukrainians with warplanes, tanks, and artillery indiscriminately shelling populated centers to compensate for the lack of capable grounds troops necessary to more precisely and safely engage with anti-Kiev fighters. That the West is not only failing to condemn this, but encouraging it, lays R2P to rest as cover for unilateral, global military aggression. For Russia to likewise cite R2P would be to legitimize this otherwise dubious policy, and even normalize its use elsewhere around the world. For many reasons Russia will not benefit from invading Ukraine, and for many more reason, NATO and the EU would benefit from it at least rhetorically. The Russians are therefore likely to resist provocations by Ukraine to cross the border and give NATO further excuses to meddle in Eastern Europe. Instead, Russia will allow Kiev to continue displaying its brutality and incompetence on the battlefield while eastern Ukrainians continue picking apart their forces. Meanwhile, economic pressure will continue undermining the regime in Kiev even amongst its supporters in western Ukraine. The clock is ticking and an outright military victory over Kievs forces is not necessary for eastern Ukrainians to achieve their goals. Conducting a confounding guerrilla campaign against Kiev will time out the clock until either mutiny or economic pressure gets the better of the regime and attempts to push eastward to consolidate its power will become an impossibility. Tony Cartalucci, Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine New Eastern Outlook, where this first appeared. 