Who Is Behind The Oil War, And How Low Will The Price Of Crude Go In 2015?Michael Snyder As you will see below, some analysts believe that it could ultimately go below 20 dollars a barrel. If we see anything even close to that, the U.S. economy could lose millions of good paying jobs, billions of dollars of energy bonds could default and we could see trillions of dollars of derivatives related to the energy industry implode. The global financial system is already extremely vulnerable, and purposely causing the price of oil to crash is one of the most deflationary things that you could possibly do. Whoever is behind this oil war is playing with fire, and by the end of this coming year the entire planet could be dealing with the consequences. Ever since the price of oil started falling, people have been pointing fingers at the Saudis. And without a doubt, the Saudis have manipulated the price of oil before in order to achieve geopolitical goals. The following is an excerpt from a recent articleby Andrew Topf It happened again in 1986, when Saudi Arabia-led OPEC allowed prices to drop precipitously, and then in 1990, when the Saudis sent prices plummeting as a way of taking out Russia, which was seen as a threat to their oil supremacy. In 1998, they succeeded. When the oil price was halved from $25 to $12, Russia defaulted on its debt. The Saudis and other OPEC members have, of course, used the oil price for the obverse effect, that is, suppressing production to keep prices artificially high and member states swimming in petrodollars. In 2008, oil peaked at $147 a barrel. Turning to the current price drop, the Saudis and OPEC have a vested interest in taking out higher-cost competitors, such as US shale oil producers, who will certainly be hurt by the lower price. Even before the price drop, the Saudis were selling their oil to China at a discount. OPECs refusal on Nov. 27 to cut production seemed like the baldest evidence yet that the oil price drop was really an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and the US. If the Saudis wanted to stabilize the price of oil, they could do that immediately by announcing a production cutback. The fact that they have chosen not to do this says volumes. In addition to wanting to harm U.S. shale producers, some believe that the Saudis are determined to crush Iran. This next excerpt comes from a recent Daily Mail article There are others out there that are fully convinced that the Saudis and the U.S. are actually colluding to drive down the price of oil, and that their real goal is to destroy Russia. In fact, Venezuelas President Nicolas Maduro openly promoted this theory during a recent speechon Venezuelan national television And as I discussed just the other day, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to agree with this theory Without a doubt, Obama wants to punish Russia for what has been going on in Ukraine. Going after oil is one of the best ways to do that. And if the U.S. shale industry gets hurt in the process, that is a bonus for the radical environmentalists in Obamas administration. There are yet others that see this oil war as being even more complicated. Marin Katusa believes that this is actuallya three-way war between OPEC, Russia and the United States Katusa thinks the longevity and staying power of the shale industry will keep it viable and profitable. The versatility and the survivability of a lot of these shale producers will surprise people. I dont see that the shale sector is going to collapse over night, he says. Whatever the true motivation for this oil war is, it does not appear that it is going to end any time soon. And so that means that the price of oil is going to go lower. How much lower? One analyst recently toldCNN that we could see the price of oil dip into the $30s next year Others are even more pessimistic. For instance,Jeremy Warner of the Sydney Morning Herald, who correctly predicted that the price of oil would fall below $80 this year, is now forecasting that the price of oil could fall all the way down to $20 next year But even Warners chilling prediction is not the most bearish. A technical analyst named Abigail Doolittle recently toldCNBC that under a worst-case scenario the price of oil could fall as low as $14 a barrel But the truth is that none of those scenarios need to happen in order for this oil war to absolutely devastate the U.S. economy and the U.S. financial system. There is a very strong correlation between the price of oil and the performance of energy stocks and energy bonds. But over the past couple of weeks this correlation has been broken. The following chart comes fromZero Hedge And it isnt just energy stocks and bonds that we need to be concerned about. There is only one other time in all of history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 50 dollars in less than a year. That was in 2008 just before the great financial crisis that erupted in the fall of that year. For much, much more on this, please see my previous article entitled Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This? Whether the price of oil crashed or not, we were already on the verge of massive financial troubles. But the fact that the price of oil has collapsed makes all of our potential problems much, much worse. As we enter 2015, keep an eye on energy stocks, energy bonds and listen for any mention of problems with derivatives. The next great financial crisis is right around the corner, but most people will never see it coming until they are blindsided by it. Related selfnews Post Article: This article first appeared here at the Economic Collapse Blog. Michael Snyder is a writer, speaker and activist who writes and edits his own blogs The American Dream and Economic Collapse Blog. Follow him on Twitter here. 