Is There Going To Be A Stock Market Crash In The Fall?Michael Snyder, Contributor The truth is that the second half of 2012 looks a little bit more like the second half of 2008 with each passing day. Just check out what Bob Janjuah of Nomura Securities has been saying. Based on the reasons set out earlier and also covered in my two prior notes, over the August to November period I am looking for the SP500 to trade off down from around 1400 to 1100/1000 in other words, I expect over the next four months to see global equity markets fall by 20% to 25% from current levels and to trade at or below the lows of 2011! US equity markets, along with parts of the EM spectrum, will I think underperform eurozone equity markets, where already very little hope resides. Our strategists see an unusually high number of macro catalysts over the next 3-6 months that could take markets lower. We expect economic growth to disappoint in the second half of the year in anticipation of the fiscal cliff. This would exacerbate any slowdown from the deepening recession in Europe and decelerating growth in emerging markets. There is also the ongoing tension in the Middle East, the potential for a US credit downgrade and accelerating downward analyst estimate revisions. To top it off, September is seasonally the weakest month of the year for stock price returns. There has been an unusual amount of chatter in the financial world about the September to December time frame.That could mean something or it could mean nothing.But is is very interesting to watch what some top financial insiders are doing with their stocks right now. Dennis Gartman, the publisher of the Gartman Leter, has dumped all of his stocks at this point. As I have written about previously, George Soros has dumped all of his stock in banking giants JP Morgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Are they just being paranoid? Or do they know something that we do not? If you are looking for the next Lehman Brothers moment in the United States, you might want to watch Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley was heavily involved in the Facebook IPO disaster, earlier this year their credit rating was downgraded, and now there are persistent rumors that Morgan Stanley is in big trouble and that it will be allowed to fail. You can check out some of these rumors for yourself here, here and here. But of course as I have said all along the center of the coming crisis is going to be in Europe, and many analysts agree with me. For example, the following is what the chairman of Casey Research, Doug Casey, had to say during a recent interview. Europe is a full cycle ahead of the U.S. Its governments and its banks are both bankrupt. Its a couple of drunks standing on the street corner holding each other up at this point. Europe is in much worse shape than the U.S. Its highly regulated, highly taxed and much more socially unstable. Europe is going to be the epicenter of the coming storm. Japan is waiting in the wings, as is China. This is going to be a worldwide phenomenon. Of course, the U.S. will be in it, too. Were going to see this all over the world. Much of southern Europe is already experiencing depression-like conditions. Unemployment in both Greece and Spain is well above 20 percent and both economies are steadily shrinking. Money is flowing out of Spanish banks at an unprecedented rate right now. Just take a look at these charts. The only thing that is going to keep the Spanish banking system from totally collapsing is outside intervention. But the truth is that all of Europe is in big trouble. Even German companies are slashing job right now. For example, check out what Siemens is up to. German engineering conglomerate Siemens (SIEGn.DE) is in early internal talks to cut thousands of jobs in response to a weakening economy, particularly in Europe, a German newspaper reported. Decisions could be made in October or November, according to daily Boersen-Zeitung, which did not specify its sources. A Siemens spokesman declined to comment. We are living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world, and at some point that bubble is going to burst in a very messy way. It is vital that people understand that our system is not even close to sustainable. Knowing exactly when it will collapse is not nearly as important as understanding that a collapse is absolutely inevitable. I think what former World Bank economist Richard Duncan had to say recently is very helpful. The explosion in credit drove economic growth in the U.S. and around the world, and now thats the only thing thats keeping us from collapsing in a debt/deflation spiral, he said. [What] I think everybody needs to understand is that the kind of economy that we have now, its not capitalism. It has very little in common with capitalism. Capitalism was an economic system in which the government played very little role . Under capitalism, gold was money and the government had nothing to do with it. Now the central bank creates the money and manipulates its value. And he is very right.We arent seeing a failure of capitalism.What we are witnessing is the failure of debt-based central banking. And if you think that the global elite are not aware of what is happening then you have not been paying attention. This summer the global elite have been preparing very hard. Either they are getting very paranoid or they know things that we do not. If you want to catch up on what the global elite have been up to recently, check out these three articles that I have published previously. If you are waiting for the nightly news to tell you what to do, then you have not learned anything. Did anyone in the mainstream media warn you about what was about to happen back in 2008? Of course not. The authorities insisted that everything was going to be just fine and many average Americans were absolutely wiped out. So dont expect someone to come along and nicely inform you that your retirement savings are about to be absolutely devastated. In this day and age it is absolutely critical for people to learn to think for themselves. Barack Obama is not going to save you. Mitt Romney is not going to save you. The U.S. Congress is not going to save you. They are too busy living the high life at taxpayer expense. Average folks like you and I are normally not so fortunate. There are lots of warning signs that indicate that this fall could be a very turbulent time for global financial markets. Ignore them at your own peril. You can support this information by voting on Reddit HERE This article first appeared here at the Economic Collapse Blog. Michael Snyder is a writer, speaker and activist who writes and edits his own blogs The American Dream and Economic Collapse Blog. 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