San Francisco -- Everybody wants it. Not a lot have it. And, frankly, even if you get it, that doesn't mean you can sustain it. In the world of television, there is no formula for a hit. All new series have going for them is word of mouth -- either from excited critics and fanboys/girls on the Internet or from chatter among producers and programmers in the business. The reason buzz is important should be self-evident if you look at your TV channel guide. Most people pay for more channels than they watch (or even know about). An alarming number of those channels are producing original content. Mostly, it's unscripted series about trucks that drive on ice, deadly sharks or some such thing. But an ever-increasing number of channels are getting into the scripted game. How can any new show survive? The honest answer to that is hype and hope. And luck. And buzz, of course. Here's a short rundown of new fall shows and their relative buzz. Just remember that last year the undisputed series that had mouths talking and fingers typing was ABC's 'Flash Forward.' That series no longer exists. Heavy buzz: 'Boardwalk Empire,' HBO (premiering next Sunday). Created, written and produced by 'Sopranos' writer Terence Winter and executive-produced by Martin Scorsese (who directed the pilot and wants to direct more episodes), the series is set in Atlantic City in the 1920s and centers on Prohibition, gangsters and politicians. Steve Buscemi stars, with a string of superb supporting actors. May it have a better fortune than 'Flash Forward.' Early buzz (which often translates, by the time the show actually arrives, into heavy buzz): 'Game of Thrones,' HBO (spring 2011). Based on the books by George R.R. Martin (called by some 'the American Tolkien'), this medieval fantasy series is so geeked out that any misstep will cause a fan backlash. 'Episodes,' Showtime (Jan. 10), stars Matt LeBlanc as himself in a self-deprecating look at the industry. A hit British series is bought by an American network and, well, pretty much ruined. Deemed 'too British' by those who bought it, LeBlanc is hired as the lead. Clips had a very jaded room of critics roaring with laughter. 'Shameless,' Showtime (Jan. 9). Starring William H. Macy and Emmy Rossum, about a happily dysfunctional family. 'Lights Out,' FX (no set date; will air in January). This series about a fading former heavyweight boxing champ has the look of something truly special. 'Sherlock,' PBS (Oct. 24). A modern version of the classic characters, updated by Steven Moffat, who also breathed new life into 'Doctor Who.' And last, 'The Walking Dead,' AMC (Oct. 31). Six episodes of zombie mayhem. Good buzz: 'No Ordinary Family,' ABC (Sept. 28). Michael Chiklis goes from bad cop on 'The Shield' to superhero dad here. 'Luther,' BBC America (Oct. 24). Idris Elba, who played Stringer Bell on 'The Wire,' is on the other side of the law as a troubled Brit detective. 'The Event,' NBC (Sept. 20). With 'Lost' gone, something brashly mysterious had to pop up. 'Lone Star,' Fox (Sept. 29). Big oil, big cons. A dark horse for network surprise story. 'Baseball: The Tenth Inning,' PBS (Sept. 28). Ken Burns and Lynn Novick revisit their famous documentary to bring it up to date, including the steroids era. 'Restrepo,' National Geographic (Nov. 29). The Grand Jury Prize winner at Sundance, this documentary about the war in Afghanistan gets a global TV audience after wowing film critics. 'Great Migrations,' National Geographic (no set date; fall 2010). Like 'Planet Earth' and 'Life,' this seven-parter is going to be one of those must-see HD nature series. This is the channel's biggest venture. 'Luck,' HBO (no date set). Dustin Hoffman will star in his first TV series, set in the world of horse racing and created by David Milch ('Deadwood'). Extended clips got people talking that Milch has found a new, rich milieu. 'Terriers,' FX (premiered Wednesday). Low-rent private detectives, buddies and a little something more, thanks to fine writing. Decent buzz: 'Nikita,' CW (premiered Thursday). This remake of 'La Femme Nikita' has bullets, babes and butt-kicking. Pure escapist fare. 'Blue Bloods,' CBS (Sept. 24). Tom Selleck goes dark here. There's hope that the show escapes convention for cable-like depth. 'Running Wilde,' Fox; 'Raising Hope,' Fox (Sept. 21). From Mitch Hurwitz ('Arrested Development') and Greg Garcia ('My Name Is Earl'), there's hope and faith that audiences will turn out. Worried buzz: 'Top Gear,' History Channel (no set date; fall 2010). Um, you really want to remake the iconic car series? How thick is your skin? Speaking of that: 'Skins,' MTV (no date set). Did MTV go pay-cable? If not, how does this bare-it-all Brit import get Americanized and not seem like a dirtier 'Gossip Girl'? Bad buzz: '$...! My Dad Says,' CBS (Sept. 23). Doesn't translate from Twitter because it's not funny. But the pilot is being reshot. 'Outsourced,' NBC (Sept. 23). Borderline racist humor about people from India? An outsourcing comedy in this economy? Hmm. 'Sister Wives,' TLC (Sept. 26). Four polygamist wives, 15 kids, one husband. There's a law against this. No, really. 'Sarah Palin's Alaska,' TLC. (Nov. 14). The sides are split and hardened, just like politics. Travelogue? Propaganda? Irony-heavy eco-show? No buzz: The rest. And that's a lot. But just as the biggest buzz show can fizzle out quickly, a no-buzz show can grow slowly and surprise everyone. E-mail Tim Goodman at tgoodmansfchronicle.com. Follow him at www.twitter.com/bastardmachine. 