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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Jan 28, 2002 at 07:44AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Jan 28, 2002 at 09:13AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Monday, January 28, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 -1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 78 -2 MAAC(NE) 61 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 -1 MAPP(HP) 23 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +2 SERC(SE) 69 -1 SPP(SP) 64 -3 WSCC(NW) 33 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 +2 WSCC(SW) 49 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 25 47 30 32 67 69 44 Max 46 35 56 33 41 72 73 51 Min 31 16 41 25 27 62 65 40 Range 15 19 15 8 14 10 8 11 StD-P 2.8 4.1 4.3 2.4 3.9 2.9 2.4 3.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Summer-type ridge in the SE to get beaten down by approaching U.S. storm. Trough to develop in the East turning the pattern to a normal to below normal temperature regime.   We are looking at a deep trough in the West and strong ridge in the East on this mornings weather maps. Dozens of record highs were set this weekend from the Plains eastward while it was cold enough in the NW for snow in Seattle. Things are on the move now which should end the warmth for most areas by the end of the week. Relative to recent weeks, it certainly looks a lot colder, but when one considers the time of year and steps back, well most areas just don't get that cold. This looks to me to be the type of situation where it will be colder in the Plains and then modify as it heads East. This has a similar feel to what happened in lat! e December. At the moment, we are devoid of snow cover, so I have a difficult time getting too pumped up over all of this. Speaking of snow, the Western U.S. system may produce some moderate snows over the far North and Lakes as it pushes from the High Plains NE to Canada. This does not appear to be a situation that favors any East Coast winter storm development. Short term numbers will still show warmth in the East, but that is a function of the next couple of days. The Western and Central U.S. temperature departures are already below normal and that trend will shift East later this week.    Tomorrow: Tuesday, January 29, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +2 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 59 -1 MAIN(CTR) 42 +6 MAPP(HP) 21 +4 NPCC(NE) 44 -4 SERC(SE) 73 +1 SPP(SP) 61 +11 WSCC(NW) 31 -2 WSCC(RK) 24 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 23 48 29 23 69 69 43 Max 41 26 56 33 39 75 73 49 Min 25 16 42 23 15 65 66 38 Range 16 10 14 10 24 10 7 11 StD-P 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 5.8 3.0 2.4 3.9 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Wednesday, January 30, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +6 ERCOT(SP) 64 +3 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 +1 MAPP(HP) 14 -6 NPCC(NE) 41 +8 SERC(SE) 73 +5 SPP(SP) 38 +1 WSCC(NW) 35 -2 WSCC(RK) 17 -8 WSCC(SW) 47 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 17 46 31 16 70 63 42 Max 39 25 51 35 26 75 72 47 Min 29 12 41 27 9 65 57 37 Range 10 13 10 8 17 10 15 10 StD-P 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 4.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Thursday, January 31, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +8 ERCOT(SP) 55 +5 FRCC(SE) 80 +1 MAAC(NE) 51 +5 MAIN(CTR) 28 -2 MAPP(HP) 16 -9 NPCC(NE) 28 -1 SERC(SE) 67 +4 SPP(SP) 35 -7 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 25 -6 WSCC(SW) 50 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 18 41 34 19 69 51 44 Max 35 23 48 39 25 74 60 50 Min 27 14 35 30 12 66 45 39 Range 8 9 13 9 13 8 15 11 StD-P 2.2 2.7 4.1 1.4 3.4 2.3 4.1 3.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Friday, February  1, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 -1 ERCOT(SP) 53 -2 FRCC(SE) 77 -1 MAAC(NE) 49 +10 MAIN(CTR) 24 -8 MAPP(HP) 18 -12 NPCC(NE) 40 +9 SERC(SE) 56 +3 SPP(SP) 41 -5 WSCC(NW) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 32 -4 WSCC(SW) 53 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 23 43 35 23 60 45 47 Max 28 28 50 41 32 69 51 53 Min 17 18 33 31 15 55 36 42 Range 11 10 17 10 17 14 15 11 StD-P 2.6 3.2 4.8 1.8 4.3 3.8 5.2 2.7 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day period looks chilly, but hardly cold and also may be very quiet. The SE ridge is replaced by a trough in the means so we should not see the recent spring regime. The trend over the Western part of the continent ( US and Canada) is for Pacific zonal flow. The real bitter cold that has been in Canada the last several weeks should gradually modify. We will likely see two distinct branches in the jet stream, an arctic branch in the North and subtropical branch in the South. We get our big storms and bitter cold outbreaks when they phase(come together). Most of the extreme forecasts you see come together when this phasing occurs. I can not rule it out in the future, but it looks unlikely to me for now. To me, the bottom line for this period(and beyond)is for a slight cold bias East and a close to normal look elsewhere.!      Day 6: Saturday, February  2, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -6 ERCOT(SP) 53 -3 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 38 -1 MAIN(CTR) 28 -7 MAPP(HP) 26 -5 NPCC(NE) 28 -1 SERC(SE) 51 -3 SPP(SP) 43 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 35 -3 WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 28 27 37 26 51 47 50 Max 28 33 38 40 35 61 55 55 Min 18 25 15 32 19 42 40 46 Range 10 8 23 8 16 19 15 9 StD-P 2.6 2.0 5.2 2.5 5.0 5.8 4.6 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Sunday, February  3, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 -5 ERCOT(SP) 58 -2 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 36 -5 MAIN(CTR) 31 -3 MAPP(HP) 27 -2 NPCC(NE) 26 -7 SERC(SE) 53 -2 SPP(SP) 47 NC WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 37 NC WSCC(SW) 56 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 31 27 37 29 51 50 51 Max 31 35 34 42 38 56 56 56 Min 23 28 19 34 23 46 42 48 Range 8 7 15 8 15 10 14 8 StD-P 2.0 1.7 3.6 1.9 4.5 3.2 4.3 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Monday, February  4, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -4 ERCOT(SP) 55 -1 FRCC(SE) 61 -4 MAAC(NE) 31 -3 MAIN(CTR) 33 -3 MAPP(HP) 31 -4 NPCC(NE) 24 -6 SERC(SE) 44 -4 SPP(SP) 42 -2 WSCC(NW) 35 -3 WSCC(RK) 24 -3 WSCC(SW) 51 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 32 29 39 30 51 54 53 Max 33 37 34 42 40 56 58 58 Min 28 31 26 35 24 47 48 51 Range 5 6 8 7 16 9 10 7 StD-P 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.6 4.9 3.0 2.3 2.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Tuesday, February  5, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 -3 ERCOT(SP) 54 NC FRCC(SE) 65 -1 MAAC(NE) 40 -1 MAIN(CTR) 28 -7 MAPP(HP) 23 -14 NPCC(NE) 33 -1 SERC(SE) 49 -1 SPP(SP) 39 -7 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 30 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 32 31 39 33 53 53 54 Max 34 37 36 43 40 57 57 59 Min 27 30 25 36 28 49 50 52 Range 7 7 11 7 12 8 7 7 StD-P 1.6 2.3 3.2 2.0 3.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 22 -18 ERCOT(SP) 55 -3 FRCC(SE) 61 -5 MAAC(NE) 30 -7 MAIN(CTR) 18 -25 MAPP(HP) 22 -19 NPCC(NE) 34 NC SERC(SE) 42 -7 SPP(SP) 47 -4 WSCC(NW) 38 +3 WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 26 29 32 21 47 47 44 Max 28 35 34 38 30 49 54 53 Min 15 17 16 23 11 45 40 32 Range 13 18 18 15 19 4 14 21 StD-P 3.5 7.4 4.5 4.8 7.9 0.9 5.7 8.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]
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