thank you  :)

-----Original Message-----
From: Kanji, Ayesha 
Sent: Friday, October 12, 2001 9:11 AM
To: Causholli, Monika
Subject: FW: Market Pulp -- Inv's See Huge Drop; NORSCAN Nearing "Magic"
Level




-----Original Message-----
From: Dillon, C A [EQRE] [mailto:c.a.dillon@ssmb.com]
Sent: Thursday, October 11, 2001 2:34 PM
Subject: PFP: Market Pulp -- Inv's See Huge Drop; NORSCAN Nearing
"Magic" Level



Chip Dillon
Managing Director
Salomon Smith Barney
388 Greenwich Street -- 28th Floor
New York, NY 10013  USA
Phone: 1-212-816-2793
Fax (US): 1-800-380-6401
Fax (International) 1-212-816-1090
Email: c.a.dillon@ssmb.com

*	For the fifth consecutive month, preliminary data indicates that
market pulp inventories in the NORSCAN region saw a greater-than-historical
average decline of 195,000 tonnes in September (avg decline in Sept. is 108K
tonnes). 
*	As a result of this greater-than-normal decline, total inventories
now stand at 1.525 million tonnes -- nearing the 1.5 million tonne
historical inflection level, and down 24% from the Feb '01 level of 2.006
million tonnes (a 4-year high).
*	The reduction in inventories has certainly not been a result of
strong demand, but rather continued discipline on the part of major
producers -- NORSCAN mills operated at only 78% and shipments equalled 88%
of capacity in Sept.  
*	We are encouraged by this news, and believe that pulp prices could
see an increase in coming months. As we wrote yesterday, we see 2002 as the
cyclical trough yr with NBSK pxs averaging $510/tonne, followed by a 17%
rebound in '03 to $595/tonne, and '04 as the cylical peak yr with avg px of
$695/tonne.     


 <<Pulp 10-11-01.pdf>>  <<Pulp 10-11-01.doc>> 



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