---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 04/06/2001 
05:19 PM ---------------------------


"Michael SCHILMOELLER" <Michael_Schilmoeller@pgn.com> on 04/05/2001 02:06:54 
PM
To: vkamins@enron.com, Stinson_Gibner@pgn.com, Vince_J_Kaminski@pgn.com
cc: Vasant_Shanbhogue@pgn.com 
Subject: Henwood Report


Tanya has been very helpful recently in helping us to understand the Enron 
VAR modeling system.  So when I received this Henwood report yesterday, I 
immediately thought that this was an opportunity to reciprocate.  (I have 
been hoping to develop some software tools that I think you could use, but 
... you know the drill.)  Although there should be no problem from Henwood's 
standpoint with sharing this document with you, I would prefer that you not 
pass it around outside of Research.

The PGE Generation & Engineering Services department paid for our one-year 
subscription to Henwood's off-the-shelf market forecast.  They wanted a 
broader perspective of the market, given their interest in building power 
plants.  I was not surprised to see, however, that Henwood's 20-year price 
forecast almost lies directly on top of the one that I prepare for PGE.  
Henwood is slightly more bullish on gas prices and seems to be assuming 
greater efficiencies of new generation.  The implied market heatrate, 
however, effectively nets out much of the gas price assumption, and it 
matches our own projections very well.

Be sure to save this and open it outside Lotus Notes or whatever mail system 
you have now.  It is rather large and could lock up your mail.

Are you aware of any subscriptions or contracts that Enron has with Henwood?  
Does London still use their model?  I will be attending a Henwood 
presentation on this report tomorrow in Seattle.  Are you interested in what 
I bring back?

Best Regards,
M

 - Henwood.pdf
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