Roll the Dice-K

After missing most of last year, Daisuke Matsuzaka will be back this Saturday.

Dice-K had Tommy John surgery and has been recovering for last year. With the demotion of Daniel Bard, the Red Sox have need for someone to complete their rotation – enter Matsuzaka.

Let’s look at 3 sides of Dice-K:

1) In his minor league rehab assignment this year, he’s doing alright. He has a 3.65 ERA, 30 Ks, and only 9 BB in 37 innings. Nothing overwhelming, but still good.

2) Dice-K’s last big league starts were not so good. In 2009 and 2010, his ERA was 5.76 and 4.69 respectively. Ouch! However, his Ks were decent, and it’s possible that his injury issues were partially to blame.

3) In 2008, Dice-K was awesome. He had a 2.80 ERA and nearly a K an inning.

So which Dice-K do we have now? If I had to guess, I think the minor league numbers he is putting up this year are probably a good barometer. It’s hard to imagine that he will get back to his 2008 self, and I’d like to think he’s better then the 2000/2010 version.

Matsuzaka is a worthy risk in deep leauges, a little too much of a gamble in medium leagues, and is high risk in shallow leagues. After a few starts we will have a better idea of where he is at, but until then, tread lightly.