10 Year Breakdown To 2.4% Possible BofA Warns

As one well-known trader noted - referring to the current move in the US Treasury complex - "rubber, meet road."With the death cross (50DMA crossing below the 200DMA) for bond yields and a crucial trendline having been tested now numerous times (building up its importance), it seems we are about to find out just how much "growth" stocks really do reflect the reality of 'ungrowth' in bonds and vice versa. A break of 2.64% in 10Y yield could be a critical floodgate the Fed does not want opened. As BofAML's Macneil Curry warns, 10Y Treasury bears beware, a break below this level opens up a drop to 2.399%.

A close-up on the trends (and death cross)...

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

As BofAML's Macneil Curry warns US Treasury Bears Beware...

US 10yr yields are approaching PIVOTAL resistance at 2.629%/2.608%. Against here we remain bearish 10s.

HOWEVER, a break below would say we are wrong, exposing the Oct'13 low and multi-year pivot zone between 2.469%/2.399%

Treasury yields have been falling for 30 years. What do you mean "now"? What is it that you think is different?

Is GDP now going to be more vibrant than the past 30 years? It's economic strength that drives yields up. It's economic weakness that drives yields down. So why do you see near term economic strength? Or long term?

LMFAO!!!! Yeah, I really hate it when the input costs for my business go down.

/s

morons.

You guys act like there is a mechanism for true price discovery, there isn't. Your statements might apply if the bonds weren't being bought by "money" created out of thin fucking air (direct monetization you ignorant fucks). Once the QE stops, then we might get to see if there is any correlation between interet rates and "economic activity", not before.

These markets are TOTALLY manipulated. Fundamentals don't mean anything anymore. Tradition may or may not mean something. For example, the world traditional flees to the safety of US Treasuries. We saw a bump up in Treasuries when things got hot with Crimea. We may be seeing the same thing as temps rise in eastern Ukraine. In this instance - and since probably the tech bubble in 2000 - flight to safety in the US is stoooooopid. Because all we do is print money, and put more people on the government tit. The "full faith and credit" of the US means less and less every day. My heart aches about this, but the truth is the truth. Another flight to safety is out of US stocks and into US Treasuries. The market has been getting a little squirmy, and bonds have been rising. All this is normal - and quite stupid. But these are traditions.

The smart thing is to flee into gold.

I don't know how long these "traditions" will last. My guess is that they will dominate the next "panic."

Some suggest that the Plunge Protection Team will foment a stock collapse in order to drive the sheep into Treasuries if the government's borrowing costs start to rise - as they have been.

In a normal world, smart money would be shorting Treasuries today. Nothing is normal anymore.

It's funny how a lot of people thought that the Fed losing control of interest rates--higher-- was going to be the "issue." Instead it is this deflationary, recessionary spiral into lower rates that will crack us.

You mean, while actual inflation is 9%-10% and Fed money printing credit creation is mapped by a hyperbolic function rise, the U.S. Government will let me give them a lot of my money and trust them for ten years as they pay me interest at a fraction of that real inflation? Oh boy, where so I sign up?

It's not like we have intractable debt problems or unfunded government liabilities many multiples of the nation's annual GDP already hanging over our heads. Can I play the part of the dupe, too, Mr. Federal Government? Please!?!?