Even though the temperatures have dropped, they’re still above average for this time of year. Click to hear KMZU’s Sarah Scott speak with Meteorologist Spencer Mell:

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

Mell said the type of winter the Midwest will have depends on something called the “Arctic Oscillation.” “Much of last winter it was positive, and this would help lead to the warm winter, besides the La Niña winter that we had,” said Mell, “But this year we have neutral conditions out in the Pacific. We don’t a La Niña or an El Niño. So a lot of our weather depends on the Arctic Oscilliation, and if it does go negative then we’ll probably see colder winter, but it’s hard to forecast those things.”

Mell said they won’t be able to predict conditions more than about two weeks in advance. As far into the future as the National Weather can predict, temperatures look like they will remain slightly above average.