11-12 Ballots possible

11-12 Ballots possible

Maxime Bernier has an 85 per cent chance of becoming the next Conservative leader this weekend in Toronto, according to the final iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet Research.

But Mainstreet President and CEO Quito Maggi said that when votes are tabulated Saturday, he expects 11 or 12 counts before Bernier finally edges out Andrew Scheer.

Based on 1,000 simulations of ballot movements as candidates drop off, Mainstreet gives Bernier an 85.34 per cent chance of winning, and Scheer 14.66 per cent.

O’Toole has a 95 per cent chance of finishing third — but the people filling the fourth through seventh positions are much less clear.

“In the simulations, 50 per cent of the time it goes 11 counts and 50 per cent of the time it goes 12 counts. The first six counts are practically irrelevant, because those first five, six counts don’t cause a lot of movement,” Maggi said.

Bernier’s extremely favourable odds are driven by a few things: strong first-ballot support, a lead in every demographic, and dominance in Quebec.

For its final poll, from May 20 to 23, Mainstreet reached 12,840 party members and found — with a margin of error of +/- 0.84%, 19 times out of 20 — that 31.30 per cent are ranking Bernier first on their ballot while 17.20 per cent are picking Scheer first, followed by O’Toole (12.90 per cent), Chong (9.50 per cent) and Leitch (6.80 per cent).