Sergey Kovalev vs. Jean Pascal II: Preview, Prediction

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HBO will be televising the rematch between Sergey Kovalev (28-0-1, 25 KO) and Jean Pascal (30-3-1, 17 KO) this Saturday night at 9:45PM US Eastern.

HBO
will be televising the rematch between Sergey Kovalev (28-0-1, 25 KO) and Jean
Pascal (30-3-1, 17 KO) this Saturday night at 9:45PM US Eastern.

Anything
is possible, but I do not give Pascal much chance to win the rematch.
Pascal, as we have seen, does not tolerate Kovalev's punching power
well, but he does not effectively compensate with great defense and
boxing ability. Should Pascal rely on his boxing, there is the
problem of his poor stamina, his preference to fight in spurts.
Kovalev lacks Pascal's speed but he can maintain non-stop hard pace.
Pascal is the shorter man and clumsier on his feet.

Last
time Pascal had some success with counter right hands following a
shoulder roll. At that time, however, Pascal was on his last stand,
for he was able to do nothing else. The counter rights appeared to
buzz Kovalev. This required that Pascal take chances: Pascal stood
against the ropes and allowed Kovalev, who is good with distance, to
measure him. Rather, Pascal would have been in safer territory had
he himself closed the distance on Kovalev, smothering him, before
countering off of the shoulder roll.

What
Pascal needs to do is out-muscle Kovalev on the inside. For Kovalev
is quite long but also quite lanky. This would favor the more squat
and muscular Pascal. But again, Pascal's balance and footwork is too
sloppy for me to believe that he will feint and use angles
effectively.

Kovalev
is not only solid offensively, his defense is on par. However, his
defense rests on measuring distance and using his feet. With
distance, Kovalev has time to react and can more effectively see what
is coming at him. At a closer distance this would be taken away.

Kovalev
is beatable, but it is up to Pascal to prove that. He was beaten
soundly enough the first time to not warrant seeing things in his
favor. The safe pick is Kovalev by knockout.