Tuesday, September 28, 2010

"Late bloomer"

Last week I left you with a proposed trade to see what you thought of it. I was Team 3 in the scenario and Player A from my team was none other than Carolina Panther running back DeAngelo Williams. I must admit, I have never been keen on the guy. Sure in 2008 he BLEW. IT. UP! But there was always that little tinge in the back of my mind that told me not to completely like this guy. Maybe it was because he played for the Panthers and the interception-throwing-I-choked-my-team-out-of-a-Superbowl Jake Delhomme was his teams quarterback. I’m just saying things out loud, pay me no mind.

(coughing): chokeartist!

Anyhow, in this year’s draft, everybody was down to their final three spots on their rosters and I noticed that DWill was not selected. Personally, I had put him on my DND (Do Not Draft) list, but I was thrifty with my selections and had cash to burn. ESPN had him as their 8th best overall RB, and I landed him for $22. I figured I could always use him as trade bait if anybody was hurting for a RB during the season. That is why I put him as part of the three team deal, which by the way was shot down because certain people wanted unrealistic and lop sided trades, because I never intended to keep him from the get go. I never intended to play him. But last week I did. Mistake. A big, 6-point mistake.

This was my reasoning. Rookie, Jimmy Clausen, was getting the nod to start against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have a pretty good pass defense and an alright run defense. My thinking was that the Panthers were going to have to go to the run game a lot because Clausen was getting this start about two or three years too soon. Williams would at least get a TD. Wrong. I took a gamble and the house won. Big surprise.

This week I lose Tony Romo to the Cowboys BYE. This really isn’t a big deal because I have Michael Vick (35 points on Sunday) and Matt Ryan of the Falcons. In addition to Ryan I have two other Falcon players in Roddy White and Michael Turner. White is going to start, no question and in my OP (Offensive Player) position I am going to play Ryan. Turner has been consistent, but I do not want to have so much riding on the success of the Atlanta Falcons, even though I think the Falcons are going to play in the Superbowl this year. Three players from the same team, filling three spots on a 10-spot fantasy football team = no bueno. My team is 1-2 (two straight weeks where the opposing team has put up 140+ and so you know, 105-110 is average) and I just cannot risk going 1-3 if the dirty birds put up a stinker.

This is why I am contemplating starting DWill again. Be warned that this column is super stat heavy. What do you think?

DeANGELO WILLIAMSDeAngelo Williams. The tale of a late bloomer. Have a looksee:

Through my research I found he does not get going until the 5th or 6th week. This week, DWill plays against the New Orleans Saints, a team that he has faced 7 times in his career. The Saints defense is ranked 30th out of 32 teams this season. For his career against them, his stats are as follows.

2006:NO WEEK 462 Rushing yards, 9 Receiving yards0 TDs

@NO WEEK 177 Rushing yards, 52 Receiving yards0 TDs

2007:@NO WEEK 523 Rushing yards, 0 Receiving yards0 TDs

NO WEEK 1219 Rushing yards, 0 Receiving yards0 TDs

2008:NO WEEK 766 Rushing yards, 4 Receiving1 TD (receiving

@NO WEEK 17178 Rushing yards, 0 Receiving0 TDs

2009:@NO WEEK 9149 Rushing yards, 12 Receiving2 TDs (rushing)

NO WEEK 17DNP (Did Not Play)

Over those seven games, Williams averaged 72 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards and .4 touchdowns. But in the last two games alone he has amassed 327 yards and two scores. What will it be? The average or the last two games? Let us dig deeper.

Another item worth noting is the amount of touches (ATT) Williams is receiving per game. His last two games against the Saints, the two monster games, Williams logged 25 and 21 respectively. There is an interesting trend: any time he gets 20 touches or more his games stats jump skyrocket. Dating back to 2006, DeAngelo Williams has had 10 games where he has recorded 20 touches or more. They are as follows:

Two games in 2006:

WEEK 11114 yards rushing 24 yards receiving20 touches

WEEK 1681 yards rushing 5 yards receiving21 touches

One game in 2007:

WEEK 17121 yards rushing 2 TDs 0 yards receiving20 touches

Four games in 2008:

WEEK 5123 yards rushing 2 TDs 25 yards receiving 1 TD20 touches

WEEK 1372 yards rushing 4 TDs 14 yards receiving21 touches

WEEK 16108 yards rushing 4 TDs 0 yards receiving24 touches

WEEK 17178 yards rushing 0 yards receiving25 touches

Three games in 2009:

WEEK 6152 yards rushing 2 TDs 0 yards receiving30 touches

WEEK 8158 yards rushing 0 yards receiving23 touches

WEEK 9149 yards rushing 2 TDs 12 yards receiving21 touches

A grand total of 1256 rushing yards in 20+ touch games, for a guy whose career rushing total is 4030. In other terms: 32% of his career rushing yards came from games were DWill gets 20 touches or more. As for touchdowns, he rushed for 16 of his career 30—a little over 50 percent—and his one receiving TD out of 4 total, gives us 25 percent.

Finally, I’ll finish where I started; at my first point of why I think DeAngelo Williams is a late bloomer. 2006 was his rookie season and he did not become a main part of the Panthers offense until the second half of the season (Week 10 on). For whatever reason, this pattern is all he knows, and he cannot get it going from the start of the regular season. Look at this:

Now, do I start DeAngelo Williams this week (WEEK 4) against the crappy run defense Saints which could get him his 20 touches, or will it be foolhardy to even hope for the 20 because I know he will not do anything until Week 5? Will the house beat my gamble two weeks in a row?