

U.S. could face second recession next year - dreamz
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5308HW20090402

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tjic
Personally, I expect that the current recession will not end before then.

Wall Street is up a bit (and by "up a bit" I mean "it's still way way down,
but from time to time it's up a few points"), but the fundamentals are as bad
as they've ever been.

I've got an acquaintance who works in energy demand forecasting, and she can
see the aggregate expectations of growth 6, 9, 12 months out by looking at
energy future prices, and she says that it shows all the classic signs of a
"Japanese style" "L-shaped" recession.

I also think that most people are waiting for the other show to drop -
inflation, further huge government deficits, further layoffs (I note that the
job figures released by ADP yesterday were worse than expected).

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biohacker42
The whole current commotion is an attempt to avoid a horrific depression.

Those efforts will hopefully succeed, but I don't know anyone who doesn't
think success == slow or slightly negative growth for a very long time, much
like Japan.

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dsil
In other news, US could see large anti-recession next year. The press has no
idea what the market is going to do.

