The crumbling of the Congress in its bastion in Andhra Pradesh is significant because in no other State does any political party hold as many Lok Sabha seats on its own as the Congress does here.

The elections to five State assemblies earlier this year surely deserved the public and media attention they got. The country's most populous State, Uttar Pradesh, was one of those holding polls. And many saw the millions of voters in these States as giving us a preview to the general elections due in 2014. Yet, the results of the small number of by-elections in Andhra Pradesh last month might tell us more about which way the Congress (and its leadership of the United Progressive Alliance) is going. And the results of polls to local bodies in the vital State of Maharashtra also throw up some signals worth a glance.

The big picture in A.P.

The Congress has far more to lose in Andhra Pradesh, where it is in power, than it does in U.P. It has 33 Lok Sabha MPs from here, more seats than it holds in any other State. In fact, no other party holds that many seats on its own from any other State either. So A.P. is crucial to the Congress nationally. In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress could, on its own, hit the 40 per cent vote-mark or higher. But that is something it will not do in 2014 when it might, in fact, face disaster. The Congress contested all seven Assembly seats where bypolls were held in A.P., including six in Telangana — and lost them all by huge margins. In Telangana, it lost the Kamareddy seat to the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) by nearly 45,000 votes. It trailed the TRS in Adilabad and Ghanpur (Station) by well over 30,000 votes in each. And came third in Mahbubnagar, trailing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winner by 14,000 votes. Oddly, that was actually the seat where it performed best, in terms of the margin of defeat. It lost Nagarkurnool to a TRS-backed ex-TDP leader by over 27,000 votes. And trailed the TRS by over 15,000 in Kollapur.

Congress, TDP hit

Who held these seats earlier? The bypoll to the Mahbubnagar seat (now won by the BJP) was caused by the death of the Congress MLA there. In five others, resignations by sitting MLAs pushing the Telangana demand, forced the bypolls. Kollapur and Ghanpur (Station) had Congress MLAs who resigned to contest on the TRS platform. Both won. Adilabad and Kamareddy had TDP MLAs who quit their seats and won this time on TRS tickets. Nagarkurnool was held by a TDP leader who left the party and contested on his own platform, backed by the TRS. He won, too. And in the coastal Andhra seat of Kovur, the sitting TDP MLA had gone with Jagan and was disqualified. He's back on the ticket of the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRC) of Jaganmohan Reddy. So both the Congress and the TDP have taken a hit.

True, the margins might have been less had the YSRC contested in Telangana as well. But then the Congress might have come third in two or three more constituencies. Jagan Reddy seems to have stayed out in order to let the TRS slaughter the Congress. But the result in Kovur in coastal Andhra, which the YSRC did contest, was in some ways more ominous. Its winning candidate here was N. Prasanna Kumar Reddy. The same gentleman had been the sitting MLA of Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) till he chose to join Jagan Reddy. As a TDP man in 2009 he won by around 7,400 votes. This time contesting against that party and the Congress, he won by more than 23,000 votes. That is by over three times his previous margin. The Congress which he had beaten the last time, came third this time. This suggests the YSR Congress is cutting into both the TDP and the Congress. It also means, if this is the trend, that the Congress is not just in trouble in Telangana. It might run into worse in coastal Andhra. In the Rayalaseema region, it lost the Kadapa seat last May to Jagan Reddy by over half a million votes. Interestingly, the Congress Minister then routed, D.L. Ravindra Reddy (taunted as “Deposit Loss Reddy” during that campaign), is now out of the government. He has quit following the new round of factional warfare that the latest debacle has brought on. That war has seen the Chief Minister and party factional leaders clashing in direct and indirect battles. The Anti-Corruption Bureau raids on the liquor lobby across the State are seen by many as a part of this war. The facts unearthed by the raids, whatever their reason, are fascinating. Close to 50 per cent of liquor shop-owners in the district of Vizianagaram turn out to be BPL card- holders. In reality, they are “benami” owners fronting for a very senior State Congress leader. In Anantapur, a BPL card-holder owns a Rs.570-crore cement company. Again, a front for a Congress leader whose son and daughter-in-law joined the board of the owning company while that leader was a minister. Meanwhile, CBI charges against Jagan Reddy in the illegal assets case, so far at least, do not appear to be helping the ruling party.

In Maharashtra

And now there's 18 more seats in Andhra Pradesh for which bypolls must be held within months. All but one of these were held by Congressmen who resigned to join Jagan Reddy. One was vacated by Chiranjeevi who has gone to the Rajya Sabha. Nine of these are in coastal Andhra, eight in Rayalaseema and just one in Telangana. Defeats in many of these could further carve up an already paralysed party. What's happening to the TDP in the State is also interesting. The perennial corporate-media favourite, Chandrababu Naidu, is floundering. The TDP failed to win a single one of the seven seats in the bypolls. It also lost its deposit in three of those. In several of the 18 seats for which bypolls will soon be due, the TDP and the Congress could be fighting for second place.

The crumbling of the Congress' A.P. bastion will have a wider national fallout for that party. The more so when it is losing ground to its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra, another vital State for the Congress. Whether in the municipal councils, corporations, panchayat samitis or the zilla parishads, all recent local body polls have seen the NCP fare better. In the zilla parishads of this huge State, there are just two among 27 which went to the polls — Sindhudurg and Latur — where the party is in a position to rule on its own. The trends must worry the Congress. It appears Muslims and dalits — both crucial to that party's base — have not voted for it in their usual numbers. Maharashtra (48) and Andhra Pradesh (42) account for 90 Lok Sabha seats. With the Congress holding more than half of these, changing vote patterns in these States matter a lot to that party. The Congress holds 17 Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra.

The party can draw comfort from the fact that its main rival, the BJP, is not doing much better across most of the country. And in fact, the Congress-led Democratic Front (DF) in Maharashtra has been losing vote-share but winning elections thanks to the disarray of the rival front. For instance, the split in the Shiv Sena has helped the Congress pull off unlikely victories. However, the period has also seen the NCP gain ground from the Congress. This will not help at bargaining time in 2014. When the Congress will be facing the heat from another ally in another State where it once had about 40 per cent of the vote on its own, West Bengal. But the bypolls to 18 seats in A.P. won't wait till then to cause problems. Those begin immediately in what 36 months ago was the strongest Congress bastion in the country.

Mr Sainath's articles are not only critical but also immensely informative. There is no way anyone could miss a single word from his mouth or his pen!

from:
Bhaskar Mothali

Posted on: Apr 21, 2012 at 19:00 IST

A very thoughtful and clearcut analysis by Sainath on the political situation in AP and Maharashtra. Due to its dilly-dallying on the Telengana issue coupled with infighting among different factions, the Congress will stand to lose considerably in the Lok Sabha elections Added to this discomfiture, NCP by the present reckoning is likely to garner a large number of seats in the Lok Sabha elections thus strengthening their bargaining power with the Congress. And the central leadership mostly dominated by dynastic culture, will have to depend heavily on the support of allies, based on opportunism.and not on principles. The Conngress will have to thoroughly reorganise itself starting at the grass-roots and allowing the state workers to choose their leaders democratically and not imposed by the High Command. That is the only way the Congress can restore its credibility among the citizens of the country.

from:
T.S.SREENIVASAN

Posted on: Apr 9, 2012 at 07:05 IST

In AP a common-man can only see that it is free-for-all. Make money when you get a chance. Do not think of the means; focus only on the end ie how much money have i earned. We have no right to criticise corruption; we have only right to join corruption and make as much money as we can make. This is what YSR has taught us; YSR must have learnt if from Congress High-command.

from:
Ram

Posted on: Apr 5, 2012 at 12:57 IST

The congress and the BJP both seem to be shooting themselves in the foot with their decisions over the last 2 years. While we don't want to see bungling,weak-willed people in power, the flipside of the argument is that we have to continue to put up with fragmented coalition governments in the centre which don't have the spine to do whats right ahead of doing whats popular. We'll only take forward steps as a country when the politicians stop insulting the intelligence of the Indian electorate with cheap populist bribes(in the form of last minute quotas and freebies) a few days before the polls

from:
Aditya

Posted on: Apr 4, 2012 at 19:41 IST

One should not solace just because our opponent also lost. We should aim for winning 100 percent. Then only anybody can aspire to.

from:
vijay

Posted on: Apr 4, 2012 at 05:27 IST

A very good article by Sainath. It is still not too late for the Congress in AP. It has 2 years before it faces the elections. For it to avoid electoral defeat, it has to bring in a new chief minister at the earliest. Kiran Kumar Reddy was brought to the helm because he was believed to be able to hold together the Reddy faction of the congress and attack YS Jagan at the same time. However, he has miserably failed to do so. The man cannot speak a few lines in any language (be it English, Hindi or Telugu) and lacks grassroot support. Moreover, he has no control whatsoever over the administration and is out of touch with reality. His situation is similar to that of Nero in Rome. Thankfully for him, the assembly also goes to polls at the same time as the Parliament, thereby guaranteeing a Congress Government at the Centre to support him. The day the Congress Government falls at the Centre, it is hard to imagine Kiran Kumar Reddy as the CM for even a single day.

from:
Siddartha

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 23:42 IST

Nice & acurate article on current trnds in AP ..It is true that congress has done a blunder by choosing Rosaiah as successor for YSR . Congress would have doing better than what it was , had it selected Jagan as successor .Very simple logic , every voter knows that every politician is corrupted . can anybody name one politician who is not ? obviously there is no one ....people know that Chandra Babu Naidu , KCR are also corrupted ....infact politicians are forced to earn money to contest in next elections ......when everyone is corrupted people are looking for the leader who at least do some good things for them though politicians earn from those things ........

from:
Narasimha

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 17:53 IST

The adage: "You can fool some of the people some of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time," comes to my mind.

from:
Digvijay Singh

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 13:51 IST

India is an integrated nation of various regions. The states have its own governments so that the people of that region has nothing to complain. The central government is federal in nature. In order to have a true federal government all the state governments should align and form a central government and all the opposition parties of states (who have elected MPs) should form the opposition at Parliament. In the present set-up true federalism is absent.

from:
M V Rangaraajan

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 12:48 IST

Indeed a quantum jump!If May 2011 Kadapa byelection initiated the tipping up of temperature beyond the ignition point(atleast Congress could attribute the humiliating defeat to the volatile emotional quotient),the March 2012 string of bypolls effectively scorched and charred the feet of Congress.With NCP strengthening its grip in the big state of Maharashtra, Singh Parivar has legitimate reasons to ponder and worry(the worrying part seems doubtful as it is marooned in playing fiddle while the nation is sinking into the fathomless 'zeroes' of corruption).Anyways,DL(Deposit Loss) seems a fitting tribute and humble gratification for UPA's tireless toil and endurance in enriching the PL lexicon-APL,BPL,IPL,CPL and what not!Whatever the intentions(mal) be,the "BPL benamis" exposed by the raids is indeed baffling-another feather in the shameless UPA accolades.Atleast for now,Andhra proves to be a perfect tinder-box for Congress and a fine reminder of an impending massive electoral disaster!

from:
Sherin

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 10:57 IST

These are suicidal tendencies of Congress Party. First blunder - it had lost YS Jagan. It under estimated YSR's legacy in AP. High-command was mislead by some group for them their own ego needs to be satisfied than 'party'. Next blunder - dragging YSR and YSJagan into CBI case. It is ridiculous to say YSR or YS Jagan looted the State which is not 'known' to any one. Common man in the State strongly believe any party needs party fund and there must be 'share of party fund'. It is like cutting its own branch of tree for Congress. Next blunder - becoming so cunning and foxy in all aspects of politics - Telangana issue, the way it is acting against Jagan, the way it is keeping silent in the case of YSR when opposition is accusing YSR, the present CM's arrogant and cruel statements on YSR (now they have come down). Every party will have some vote base. But Congress vote base is hardly about 10-15%. Remaining it has to struggle now and prove better of all.

from:
venky

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 10:15 IST

The loss for congress can be attributed to the whipped up telangana passions.There is no denying the fact that the loss in kovur to YSR congress is a big blow to Congress and TDP. While Jagan is mired in corruption controversies,people have realised that congressmen are no saints. People who rubbed shoulders with YSR cannot wash their hands off the various rumours that are doing rounds stating that Jagan is being selectively targeted and there are many in congress who are equally corrupt.When everyone is corrupt, people tend to vote for a candidate who can gain more sympathy and Jagan is doing just the thing by his Odarpu yatra. Seasoned politicians like Chandrababu naidu are unable to match his political strategies. The best way forward is for everyone to come clean and clear up their stables. Or else, Ap will have to choose between the devil and the deep Sea.While Lok Satta promises a clean governance, its inability to extend its appeal beyond the middle class is a big handicap

from:
krishnan

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 09:51 IST

I am surprised at the vicarious pleasure of the so called intellectuals at the demise of congress and the rise of sectarian , caste, reginal and currupt leaders.

from:
siva

Posted on: Apr 3, 2012 at 09:32 IST

i had never really thought of Andhra as specifically significant in National politics, but "The Congress has far more to lose in Andhra Pradesh, where it is in power, than it does in U.P. It has 33 Lok Sabha MPs from here, more seats than it holds in any other State." is my double take. Wow.