MH370 – The Engine Fire Theory

To follow up on previous postings about my sighting of a glowing orange plane on the night MH370 disappeared, hardly anything is known about what happened to that flight after it disappeared from radar – and it seems that even that data is under review. That is a good thing in my opinion, since the independent scientists who are looking into my sighting seem to be having issues fitting it with what they already believe happened.

Now, I’m not a scientist, but I know what I saw. And contrary to what some critics might be saying out there on the world wide web, I have not been changing “what I saw” to fit what the experts believe. On the contrary, I have refused to change my testimony, even though it doesn’t fit (yet). I have been clarifying it to make it more intelligible, though; first with the help of Cruisers Forum members, who asked question after question to tease out the details (and that was much appreciated, since there are things I wouldn’t have thought of mentioning otherwise), and now with the help of the scientists on Duncan Steel’s independent team. Various independent investigators have approached me, and worked hard to present theories which fit with my sightings. I hope to publish the work of those investigators who give me permission to do so, since each theory is deserving of thanks. The scientific analysis, of course, gets done over at Duncan’s place!

Stewart Stoddart, a flight test engineer kindly contacted me a while ago, with the intention of taking what I had seen, working off the assumption that it was MH370, and putting it into a viable flight plan. He has done so, and very patiently, given the apparent confusion over timings and positions of the craft. He has questioned me over and over about timings. He has teased out further thoughts and common sense applications of those thoughts, and despite great difficulty to make my timings fit with the published timings that are known from earlier in the flight, he has worked with them to create a flight plan that seems to work for both sets of timings, even though mine seemed to go against almost everything the investigators previously believed.

The first image he is sharing reflects the timing of when the aircraft passed me. I believe I have been able to narrow down the time of the sighting to the time at which I preformed an accidental gybe.

The image reflects the elevation angles I witnessed the craft at, and the Azimuths (position relative to boat) I witnessed. From that he has been able to calculate things such as altitude, and airspeed. I owe an enormous debt of gratitude to Stewart for his patient work, and look forward to seeing his full work published.

An interactive version of our track can be downloaded here: Kate’s GPS Track in .kml format, which automatically opens in Google Earth. It’s quite a big file, so don’t do this on your mobile phone’s data connection unless you have a mega package!

If you are interested in how I established the timings, I have posted the process of elimination over at Duncan’s Blog. Duncan Steel, I believe is listed amongst the top four scientists in this world (see his info page!) and it is an honour to have been in communication with him. He’s a fantastic teacher, who very patiently puts things into perspective for me in words I can understand. I can’t thank his dedicated team enough. They have all shown a professional interest. I’d particularly like to thank Dr Bobby Ulich and Henrik Rydberg; but everyone has shown admirable dedication to the cause.

A potential Northern route which MH370 could have flown, which fits the published data plus my sighting: Stewart Stoddart

This second image is an overview of what he currently believes the Northern part of MH370s course could have been. I can’t say too much about it, since I don’t understand it fully, but I do know that it is one possible scenario which so far fits with both my data and the technical data which has been made available to the public.

Potential flight route for MH370s Southern leg, which fits the lower speed and altitude I witnessed, as well as the Inmarsat data: Stewart Stoddart

Finally, the last image shows a potential Southern route for MH370. This is based on the assumption that MH370 was flying at a low altitude and at a reduced speed; in other words, as I saw it. It demonstrates that it is possible for MH370 to have met those Inmarsat timings even if it were flying disabled.

I am very grateful to Stewart for sending me these graphics with permission to share, since I understand that he is not yet ready to publish his full report. Many investigators, including Stewart and his team, are dedicating a huge amount of time and expertise to trying to unravel this mystery, and so sharing what we can is what it’s all about.

I realise I haven’t expressed (here on my own blog anyway) my heartfelt sympathy for the families and friends of MH370. Rest assured, there truly are people who are working their fingers to the bone to find out what happened to your loved ones.

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Hi Kate, I think you have done as much as you can over this. And you were 100% correct to do so. But I’m a little concerned now for YOU. Let the experts deal with the information and perhaps move on. It can easily become an obsession.

Thanks Ted, it’s very kind of you to show such concern. That said, I think you should consider whether you would answer the questions if you were asked, or if you’d just set it aside and move in. Have you even read Duncan’s blog? If not, I suggest you do, and carefully, so that you can more fully understand the situation before offering advice to strangers on matters on which you are ignorant.

Ted, I apologise. I wrote that terse answer before I’d had my morning cup of tea. I should know better. A word of explanation… At Duncan’s blog I am answering questions as I am asked. It’s the least I can do, and I assure you that when the questions stop, so will I 🙂 Meantime, I owe it to the families and friends to offer what help I am able.

Also, this blog is my own little diary, intended for me to read when I am older. This is quite a life event for me, so I think recording the key points in a few posts is quite natural. Rest assured, it’s only a part-time hobby now, I am busy during the day time on the boat now, preparing to sail off again in a few months, hopefully.

I have emailed Stewart Stoddart the same thing I am about to ask you here. Whilst I commend you for investing a lot of time, energy and resilience in standing by your eye witness accounts of MH370, may I please ask you a simple question which no one yet seems to know.
Why is it that you, Steele and others have failed to also collaborate and work with eye witness Mike McKay (the oil rig worker) that also saw a plane “in flames” on the same night as you?

Mr McKay has lost his job over this, has gone into recluse and has basically been lambasted for coming out with his observations, which by now he has most likely regretted having ever seen that plane in the distance.

Do you know how I can contact him? IF he were to contribute at Duncan’s place, as I have, I am sure the team would be more than happy to investigate all scientific angles of his observation. The simple answer to your question is that (as far as I know) he has not come forward to discuss the issue there.

Thank you Kate. Yes that is a shame the poor man has been pushed out entirely and yet he could hold crucial insights onto what happened that night. Lets’ hope somehow, someone reads this and tries to contact him directly. I just hope he will still be willing to help us. All the best.

Patrick: Thank you for the link to this information. I wonder how Katherine’s and Mike McKay’s reports would fit in with a right side cockpit, hull piercing, blast fire in the co-pilot’s oxygen mask assembly, as with Egyptair flight 667 in July, 2011?

This sort of blast fire would likely take out various communication systems and, once the hull was opened up, cause all of the oxygen to be rapidly removed from the plane. The lack of air pressure, and therefore available oxygen, would likely have extinguished the fire once the co-pilot’s 30 minute oxygen tank was exhausted.

At higher elevations, of 37,000 feet, however, the sub-zero (-44 C) cold temperatures would make life unsustainable. Perhaps the pilot of MH 370 dove the plane down to a lower altitude for more oxygen and warmth. Unfortunately, at a lower elevation, of 10,000 to 5,000 feet, the blast fire would likely have more oxygen and be able to burn longer.

Under this co-pilot’s oxygen mask electrical arc ignited blast fire theory, the communications systems might have been taken out without the loss of the number one, left, engine. I wonder how a hole in the plane’s (777-200) hull would affect its flight path and would the autopilot correct for the added drag? Would this cause the right engine to run out of fuel first?