To improve the study on the development of forest fires,the forest fire spreading model was established through the experiments and observation data.Based on the MODIS data,this study obtained data sequence from the enhanced image with fusion technology,then established the spreading and predicting model of forest fires through the integration of Grey Theory.The model has many characters: the process of modeling is simple,data are easy to get,the strong applicability makes it can be used in more fields.By the analysis,half of the predicted relative error was less than 1%,25% was less than 5%,and 25% was 5%-10%.
To improve the precision of gray modeling in forest fire and solve the problem of small date modeling, ER algorithm is proposed. Based on the senior introduced the robust estimation to gray modeling, this method interpolate the modeling date again. The method can achieve small date (3 dates) modeling. This research compared with three calculation methods: least squares method, least squares interpolation method and ER algorithm. According to the fitting precision, least squares method is 10.21%, least squares interpolation method is 1.08% and ER algorithm is 0.00%. That can be obtained by calculating ER algorithm has a good fitting effect.
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