Grey Prediction of Port Throughput Based on GM(1,1,α) Model
According to the situation of lack of statistical data, this paper makes use of the time sequence prediction theory of nonlinear grey GM(1,1,α) Model to predict the port throughput based on the data of LianYungang port throughput from 2003 to 2007, and expounds the application of nonlinear grey forecasting method. Results show that the nonlinear grey GM(1,1,α) model can prediction of adaptability, high precision, simple, and can effectively solve the port throughput prediction problem.
The navigation condition of tributaries at TGP reservoir area has improved essentially but it still lacks navigation grading standard,for the normal grading standard of inland river takes no consideration of the effect of reservoir on the tributary channel navigation.So the normal grading standard can't be applied to determine the technical grade of tributary channel.Taking Meixi River as the typical tributary,the preliminary exploration of grading the tributaries navigation technically after the accomplishment of TGP reservoir is carried out;the exploration is discussed from various aspects,such as flow condition,channel dimension and the navigation guarantee rate.The proposed standard is applied to Meixi River,and its channel navigation standard after the accomplishment of TGP is obtained,which can be taken as the reference for the navigation grading study of TGP reservoir and navigation tributaries of similar reservoirs.