Logistic Regression for Predicting Early Postpartum Depressive Symptoms in Japanese First-Time Mothers Aged 35 and Over
Emi Mori1, Hiroko Iwata1, Miyako Tsuchiya1, Akiko Sakajo1, Tomoko Maekawa2, Kunie Maehara1, Akiko Morita1, Harumi Ozawa1, Yoshimi Mochizuki2, Akiko Saeki2, Kyoko Aoki1, Miyuki Makaya3, Koji Tamakoshi4 1Graduate School of Nursing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan 2Fomer Graduate School of Nursing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan 3School of Nursing, Kitasato University, Kanagawa, Japan 4Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Aichi, Japan
In this paper we present a macro-economic demographic growth modelhaving a special focus on social security. It is designed to study the variability of responses of the system in presence of risks and uncertainties. Here we analyze the robustness of the model towards uncertainties in parameterspecifications, introduced by ARCH-M models with the incorporation ofintervention processes. The parameters varied are labor force participationrates (one of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policydebate), and the parameters of the production function (the key source ofuncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysisfocuses on two variables: assets of the private pension system and thebalance of the public `Pay As You Go' pension system. Special attentionis given to convergence properties of the macro-economic model.