The Effects Of Short-Term Interest Rates On Output, Price And Exchange Rates: Recent Evidence From China
lected macro-variables in China. Johansenâ€™s cointegration tests fail to find a moving equilibrium among the related variables. Based on a VAR model in first differences, we find that an unexpected temporary one-off shock to the change in the seven-day money market interbank borrowing rate does not have significant influence on GDP changes but a significant influence on price level changes in a wrong direction. Empirical testing demonstrates that the seven-day Repo rate has an insignificant influence on both GDP changes and on the price level changes. Furthermore, the relationships between monetary aggregate (M2) and short-run money market interest rates suggest that the short-run interest rates do not have significant influence on the monetary aggregate. Therefore, we have determined that short-run money market interest rates are ineffective as a monetary policy-operating objective.
We test the public policy impact of court decisions relative to Congress and the executive by examining the FDA's proposals to regulate tobacco products. To measure impact we utilize an event study methodology that measures how a court decision affects the returns of selected publicly traded firms. This approach allows us to sort out the decisiveness of court decisions that occur in the shadow of the executive and congressional power, as well as to sort out the power of judges within the judicial hierarchy. We find that courts, including District Courts, have the ability to affect significantly the expected profits of firms.