Demographic Change and Consumption -- A Long-term Simulation Analysis
This study investigates the influence of the demographic ageing process in Germany on the long-term economic growth path. For this purpose a macroeconomic simulation model which combines demographic forecasts with a modified Ramsey growth model is applied. Special focus is put on the consumption effects of population ageing and the potential to counter those by rising fertility or permanent immigration. The simulation results illustrate that in the medium and in the long terms per capita consumption is among all demographic scenarios lower than without demographic changes. Permanent immigration can retard the consumption decrease. Rising fertility even reinforces the decline of consumption in the examined period of time.
Earlier in this book, commoditization was defined, explained, and clarified. Its major impacts on the economy and on business practices have been clarified. The diagnosis and prognosis of its consequences on growth and profitability have also been laid out extensively. The prerequisites for decision making on value creation have been honestly and transparently justified. Consistent with the intellectual process of this book, we will now move from ideas to action and present strategic recommendations on customer value creation, specifically how to develop it, how to translate it into a strong CVP, how to keep it relevant, and how to avoid leakage of value by determining where cuts will hurt customer perceptions.