Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection
The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges.
Abstract This paper presents a model of investment in six African economies over the 1970s and 80s, paying particular attention to the impact of the policy reforms which have accompanied structural adjustment programmes. A priori, the impact of trade reform on investment can be positive or negative; in practise, there is some evidence that it might be negative.