Conclusions: The Future of Political Risk Assessment
The case was made in Part One of this book that political risk assessment, as a distinct outgrowth of the environmental scanning activity, has an important influence on corporate profitability. Part Two analyzed the evolution of political risk assessment, both as a corporate function and as an academic sub-discipline. Examining the assessment function in American, Canadian and West European corporations, it was found that: i) the corporations’ sector of business and individual corporate structure both have an important influence on the way the corporation organizes the political risk assessment functions; ii) the function itself appears to be going through a ‘shake out’ phase, with increasing emphasis being placed on the business implications of political risk rather than on risk assessment per se; and iii) that the major challenge for the future is the better integration of political risk assessments into corporate decision making. I look at each of these in succession, below.
With the prevalence of data online, consumers increasingly shop not only for the product that best fits their needs, but also for the best time to purchase the product in order to reduce its cost. In line with this behavior, ecommerce websites often not only offer products, but also provide analytics based statements and recommendations relating to the best time to purchase a perishable product (e.g., air travel). This study examines the effects of such purchase timing statements and recommendations on consumers’ trusting beliefs in the recommendation facility. Our theoretical background comes from Toulmin’s (1958) argumentation model and the literature related to the role of explanation facilities in enhancing consumers’ trust. Results from our pilot study show evidence for the different roles Toulmin elements have, serving as explanation facilities in the context of predictive analytics.