Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?
This paper examines financial professionalsâ€™ overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individualsâ€™ selfâ€ rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a moderate degree, including many cases of underconfidence. In analysing this, we find that working experience is accompanied by less overconfidence. Function is also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent success appears with more overconfident professionals.
With the use of data and concrete examples, such as ::: a mini-case study, and a focus on the top 20 global players, this ::: thesis aims at tackling Capex issues in the telecom industry by ::: covering: – Uses, levels, inefficiencies in Capex management, ::: notably via insider perspective, and their impacts on capital ::: allocation; – Financing of Capex via debt and the recent ::: development of asset monetization; – Specific trends (NSA, VNOs) ::: and M&A in the telecom industry and their impacts on Capex, via ::: the case study of the French SFR-Numericable ::: transaction.