title: Short-term Forecasting of Cumulative Confirmed Cases of Covid-19 Pandemic in Somalia

text: Somalia has recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case and first death case on March 16, and April 08, 2020, respectively. Since its arrival to the country, it had infected 2,603 people and took the lives of 88 people while 577 patients were recovered as of 14 June, 2020. To fight this pandemic, the government requires to make the necessary plans accordingly. To plan effectively, the government needs to answer this question: what will be the effect of Covid-19 cases in the country? To answer this question accurately and objectively, forecasting the spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases will be vital.To this regard, this paper provides real times forecasts of Covid-19 cases employing Holt's linear trend model without seasonality. Provided that the data employed is accurate and the past pattern of the disease will continue in the future, this model is powerful to produce real time forecasts in the future with some degree of uncertainty. With the help of these forecasts,the government can make evidence based decisions by utilizing the scarce resource available at its disposal.


title: Emerging Therapeutic Strategies for COVID-19 patients

text: Over 100,000 cases of COVID-19 patients infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 have been reported worldwide in approximately 2 months, resulting in over 3000 deaths. Potential therapeutic strategies, including remdesivir, chloroquine phosphate, abidol, lopinavir/ritonavir, plasma, antibody, vaccine and stem cells are discussed in this review. With the number of patients increasing daily, there is an urgent need for effective therapeutic intervention.


title: COVID-19 and quarantine orders: A practical approach

text: Quarantine is a very effective method for containing the spread of highly infectious diseases in large populations during a pandemic, but it is only effective if properly implemented. The co-operation and compliance of people entering quarantine are critical to its success. However, owing to the isolating and social distancing nature of quarantine, it often leads to extreme economic hardship and shortages in basic needs such as food, medicine, water and communication- A nd to the curtailment of certain universal social norms such as attending a parent's funeral. To escape these hardships, people often refuse to enter voluntary quarantine, or breach quarantine rules. In these circumstances, health authorities are obliged to act in the best interests of the public and obtain court orders to force some people into quarantine. In further extreme circumstances, when a national lockdown is ordered, non-compliance with quarantine measures may result in arrests and penalties. The scope of this article is limited to the period prior to and following such a lockdown, during which quarantine may still be vital for the containment of COVID-19. Because a quarantine order will deprive an individual of his or her freedom, this must be carefully balanced with the public interest. This article explains the legal and ethical considerations of this balancing exercise and provides practical guidance for obtaining quarantine orders.


Life in a Post-covid-19 World


title: The IMPDH inhibitor merimepodib suppresses SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro

text: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a major public health burden around the world. The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has infected over one million people worldwide as of April, 2020, and has led to the deaths of nearly 300,000 people. No approved vaccines or treatments in the USA currently exist for COVID-19, so there is an urgent need to develop effective countermeasures. The IMPDH inhibitor merimepodib (MMPD) is an investigational antiviral drug that acts as a noncompetitive inhibitor of IMPDH. It has been demonstrated to suppress replication of a variety of emerging RNA viruses. We report here that MMPD suppresses SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro. After overnight pretreatment of Vero cells with 10 μM of MMPD, viral titers were reduced by 4 logs of magnitude, while pretreatment for 4 hours resulted in a 3-log drop. The effect is dose-dependent, and concentrations as low as 3.3 μM significantly reduced viral titers when the cells were pretreated prior to infection. The results of this study provide evidence that MMPD may be a viable treatment option for COVID-19.


title: Dog noses detect heat, the world faces coronavirus, and scientists search for extraterrestrial life

text: On this week’s show, Online News Editor David Grimm joins host Sarah Crespi to discuss how dogs’ cold noses may be able to sense warm bodies Read the research International News Editor Martin Enserink shares the latest from our reporters covering coronavirus And finally, from a recording made at this year’s AAAS annual meeting, host Meagan Cantwell talks with Jill Tarter, chair emeritus at the SETI Institute, about the newest technologies being used to search for alien life, what a positive signal would look like, and how to inform the public if extraterrestrial life ever were detected This week’s episode was produced with help from Podigy


title: Hydroxychloroquine plus standard care compared with the standard care alone in COVID-19: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

text: Background & Objective: The efficacy and safety of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in treating coronavirus disease COVID-19 pandemic is disputed. This study aimed to examine the efficacy and safety of HCQ plus standard of care in COVID-19 patients. Methods: PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Embase, and web of sciences were searched up to June 1, 2020. The references list of the key studies was reviewed for additional relevant resources. Clinical studies registry databases were searched for identifying potential clinical trials. The quality of the included studies was evaluated using the Cochrane Collaborations tool. Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan software (version 5.3). Results: Three randomized controlled trials with total number of 242 patients were identified eligible for meta-analysis. No significant differences were observed between HCQ and standard care in terms of viral clearance (Risk ratio [RR] = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91, 1.16; P= 0.68), disease progression (RR=0.92; 95% CI= 0.10, 0.81; P=0.94), Chest CT (RR=1.40; 95% CI= 1.03, 1.91; P=0.03). There is a significant difference between HCQ and standard care for adverse events (RR=2.88; 95% CI= 1.50, 5.54; P=0.002). Conclusion: Although the current meta-analysis failed to confirm the efficacy and safety of HCQ in the treatment of COVID-19 patients, further rigorous randomized clinical trials are necessary to evaluate conclusively the efficacy and safety of HCQ against COVID-19. Keyword: Coronavirus Disease; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Hydroxychloroquine; Efficacy; Safety


title: Emotional responses and coping strategies of nurses and nursing college students during COVID-19 outbreak

text: Background: Affected by a Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Since December 2019, there have been more than 76,000 cases of COVID-19 in China, causing more than 3,000 medical staff infections. Due to COVID-19 spreads quickly, is highly contagious, and can be fatal in severe cases, and there are no specific medicines, it poses a huge threat to the life and health of nurses and has a large impact on their emotional responses and coping strategies. Methods: This study conducted an online questionnaire survey from February 1 to 9, 2020 to investigate the current state of emotional responses and coping strategies of nurses and college nursing students in Anhui Province. This study used a modified Brief COPE (Carver, 1997) and a emotional responses scale. Results: The results found that women showed more severe anxiety and fear than men. Participants from cities showed more anxiety and fear than participants from rural, but rural participants showed more sadness than urban participants. The closer COVID-19 is to the participants, the stronger the anxiety and anger. Compared with Nursing college students, nurses have stronger emotional responses and are more willing to use Problem-focused coping. People may have a cycle of "the more fear, the more problem-focused coping". And people may "The more angry, the more emotion-focused coping", "the more problem-focused coping, the more anxious, the more angry, the more sadness". Conclusion: COVID-19 is a pressure source with great influence, both for individuals and for the social public groups. Different individuals and groups may experience different levels of psychological crisis, and those nurses at the core of the incident are affected. Hospitals should focus on providing psychological support to nurses and providing timely psychological assistance and training in coping strategies. Improving nurses' ability to regulate emotions and effective coping strategies, providing a strong guarantee for resolutely winning the battle against epidemic prevention and control.


title: Development and validation of direct RT-LAMP for SARS-CoV-2

text: We have developed a reverse-transcriptase loop mediated amplification (RT-LAMP) method targeting genes encoding the Spike (S) protein and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) of SARS-CoV-2. The LAMP assay achieves the same limit of detection as commonly used RT-PCR protocols based on artificial targets, recombinant Sindbis virus, and clinical samples. Clinical validation of single target LAMP (N=108) showed a positive percent agreement (PPA) of 33/34 (97.1%) and negative percent agreement (NPA) of 73/74 (98.6%) compared to reference RT-PCR. Dual target RT-LAMP achieved a PPA of 11/11 (100%) and NPA 13/13 (100%) when including discrepant samples. The assay can be performed without a formal extraction procedure, with lyophilized reagents that do need cold chain, and is amenable to point-of-care application with visual detection.


title: The impact of believing you have had COVID-19 on behaviour: Cross-sectional survey

text: Objectives: To investigate whether people who think they have had COVID-19 are less likely to engage in social distancing measures compared with those who think they have not had COVID-19. Design: On-line cross-sectional survey. Setting: Data were collected between 20th and 22nd April. Participants: 6149 participants living in the UK aged 18 years or over. Main outcome measures: Perceived immunity to COVID-19, self-reported adherence to social distancing measures (going out for essential shopping, nonessential shopping, and meeting up with friends/family; total out-of-home activity), worry about COVID-19 and perceived risk of COVID-19 to oneself and people in the UK. Knowledge that cough and high temperature / fever are the main symptoms of COVID-19. Results: In this sample, 1493 people (24.3%) thought they had had COVID-19. Only 245 (4.0%) reported receiving a test result saying they had COVID-19. Reported test results were often incongruent with participants' belief that they had had COVID-19. People who believed that they had had COVID-19 were: more likely to agree that they had some immunity to COVID-19; less likely to report adhering to social distancing measures; less worried about COVID-19; and less likely to know that cough and high temperature / fever are two of the most common symptoms of COVID-19. Conclusions: The number of people in the UK who think they have already had COVID-19 is about twice the rate of current prevalence estimates. People who think that they have had COVID-19 may contribute to transmission of the virus through non-adherence to social distancing measures. Clear communications to this growing group are needed to explain why protective measures continue to be important and to encourage sustained adherence.


title: Custommune: a web tool to design personalized and population-targeted vaccine epitopes

text: Computational prediction of immunogenic epitopes is a promising platform for therapeutic and preventive vaccine design. A potential target for this strategy is human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1), for which, despite decades of efforts, no vaccine is available. In particular, a therapeutic vaccine devised to eliminate infected cells would represent a key component of cure strategies. HIV peptides designed based on individual viro-immunological data from people living with HIV/AIDS have recently shown able to induce post-therapy viral set point abatement. However, the reproducibility and scalability of this method is curtailed by the errors and arbitrariness associated with manual peptide design as well as by the time-consuming process. We herein introduce Custommune, a user-friendly web tool to design personalized and population-targeted vaccines. When applied to HIV-1, Custommune predicted personalized epitopes using patient specific Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles and viral sequences, as well as the expected HLA-peptide binding strength and potential immune escape mutations. Of note, Custommune predictions compared favorably with manually designed peptides administered in a recent phase II clinical trial (NCT02961829). Furthermore, we utilized Custommune to design preventive vaccines targeted for populations highly affected by COVID-19. The results allowed the identification of peptides tailored for each population and predicted to elicit both CD8+ T-cell immunity and neutralizing antibodies against structurally conserved epitopes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Overall, our data describe a new tool for rapid development of personalized or population-based immunotherapy against chronic and acute viral infections.


title: Comparison of Commercially Available and Laboratory Developed Assays for in vitro Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Clinical Laboratories

text: Multiple laboratory developed tests and commercially available assays have emerged to meet diagnostic needs related to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. To date, there is limited comparison data for these different testing platforms. We compared the analytical performance of a laboratory developed test (LDT) developed in our clinical laboratory based on CDC primer sets and four commercially available, FDA emergency use authorized assays for SARS-CoV-2 (Cepheid, DiaSorin, Hologic Panther, and Roche Cobas) on a total of 169 nasopharyngeal swabs. The LDT and Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 assays were the most sensitive assays for SARS-CoV-2 with 100% agreement across specimens. The Hologic Panther Fusion, DiaSorin Simplexa, and Roche Cobas 6800 only failed to detect positive specimens near the limit of detection of our CDC-based LDT assay. All assays were 100% specific, using our CDC-based LDT as the gold standard. Our results provide initial test performance characteristics for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and highlight the importance of having multiple viral detection testing platforms available in a public health emergency.


title: Ethical Issues in Decision-making Regarding the Elderly Affected by Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Expert Opinion

text: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is resulting in ethical decisions regarding resource allocation. Prioritisation reflects established practices that regulate the distribution of finite resources when demand exceeds supply. However, discrimination based on sex, race or age has no role in prioritisation unless clearly justified. The risk posed by COVID-19 is higher for elderly people than for younger people, so older adults should be prioritised in preventive measures. In the case of people who already have COVID-19, healthcare professionals might prioritise those most likely to survive. Making decisions based on chronological age alone is not justified; in addition to age, other aspects that determine theoretical life expectancy must be taken into account. Individualised correct prioritisation in the allocation of scarce resources is essential to good clinical practice.


title: Acute kidney injury at early stage as a negative prognostic indicator of patients with COVID-19: a hospital-based retrospective analysis

text: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly emerged infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has been pandemic all over the world. This study described acute kidney injury (AKI) at early stage of COVID-19 and its clinical significance. Three-hundred and fifty-five COVID-19 patients with were recruited and clinical data were collected from electronic medical records. Patient's prognosis was tracked and risk factors of AKI was analyzed. Of 355 COVID-19 patients, common, severe and critical ill cases accounted for 63.1%, 16.9% and 20.0%, respectively. On admission, 56 (15.8%) patients were with AKI. Although AKI was more common in critical ill patients with COVID-19, there was no significant association between oxygenation index and renal functional indices among COVID-19 patients with AKI. By multivariate logistic regression, male, older age and comorbidity with diabetes were three important independent risk factors predicting AKI among COVID-19 patients. Among 56 COVID-19 patients with AKI, 33.9% were died on mean 10.9 day after hospitalization. Fatality rate was obviously higher among COVID-+19 patients with AKI than those without AKI (RR=7.08, P<0.001). In conclusion, male elderly COVID-19 patients with diabetes are more susceptible to AKI. AKI at early stage may be a negative prognostic indicator for COVID-19.


title: Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Patterns in Three Chinese Regions vs. South Korea,Italy and Iran

text: Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) began in January 2020 in the city of Wuhan (Hubei province, China). It took about 2 months for China to get this infectious disease under control in its epicenter at Wuhan. Since February 2020, COVID-19 has been spreading around the world, becoming widespread in a number of countries. The timing and nature of government actions in response to the pandemic has varied from country to country, and their role in affecting the spread of the disease has been debated. Method: The present study proposed a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model (SEIR) model to perform a comparative analysis of the temporal progress of disease spread in six regions worldwide: three Chinese regions (Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang) vs. three countries (South Korea, Italy and Iran). For each region we developed detailed timelines of reported infections and outcomes, along with government-implemented measures to enforce social distancing. Simulations of the imposition of strong social distancing measures were used to evaluate the impact that these measures might have had on the duration and severity of COVID-19 outbreaks in the three countries. Results: The main results of this study are as follows: (a) an empirical COVID-19 growth law provides an excellent fit to the disease data in all study regions and potentially could be of more general validity; (b) significant differences exist in the spread characteristics of the disease among the three regions of China and between the three regions of China and the three countries; (c) under the control measures implemented in the Chinese regions (including the immediate quarantine of infected patients and their close contacts, and considerable restrictions on social contacts), the transmission rate of COVID-19 followed a modified normal distribution function, and it reached its peak after 1 to 2 days and then was reduced to zero 11, 11 and 18 days after a 1st-Level Response to Major Public Health Emergency was declared in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang, respectively; moreover, the epidemic control times in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang showed that the epidemic reached an "inflection point" after 9, 12 and 17 days, respectively, after a 1st-Level Response was issued; (d) an empirical COVID-19 law provided an excellent fit to the disease data in the six study regions, and the law can be potentially of more general validity; and (e) the curves of infected cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would had been significantly flattened and shrunken at a relatively earlier stage of the epidemic if similar preventive measures as in the Chinese regions had been also taken in the above three countries on February 25th, February 25th and March 8th, respectively: the simulated maximum number of infected individuals in South Korea, Italy and Iran would had been 4480 cases (March 9th, 2020), 2335 cases (March 10th) and 6969 cases (March 20th), instead of the actual (reported) numbers of 7212 cases (March 9th), 8514 cases (March 10th, 2020) and 11466 cases (March 20th), respectively; moreover, up to March 29th, the simulated reduction in the accumulated number of infected cases would be 1585 for South Korea, 93490 for Italy and 23213 for Iran, respectively, accounting for 16.41% (South Korea), 95.70% (Italy) and 60.59% (Iran) of the accumulated number of actual reported infected cases. Conclusions: The implemented measures in China were very effective for controlling the spread of COVID-19. These measures should be taken as early as possible, including the early identification of all infection sources and eliminating transmission pathways. Subsequently, the number of infected cases can be controlled at a low level, and existing medical resources could be sufficient for maintaining higher cure rates and lower mortality rate compared to the current situations in these countries. The proposed model can account for these prevention and control measures by properly adjusting its parameters, it computes the corresponding variations in disease transmission rate during the outbreak period, and it can provide valuable information for public health decision-making purposes.


title: Patient-derived mutations impact pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2

text: The sudden outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally with more than 1,300,000 patients diagnosed and a death toll of 70,000. Current genomic survey data suggest that single nucleotide variants (SNVs) are abundant. However, no mutation has been directly linked with functional changes in viral pathogenicity. Here we report functional characterizations of 11 patient-derived viral isolates, all of which have at least one mutation. Importantly, these viral isolates show significant variation in cytopathic effects and viral load, up to 270-fold differences, when infecting Vero-E6 cells. We observed intrapersonal variation and 6 different mutations in the spike glycoprotein (S protein), including 2 different SNVs that led to the same missense mutation. Therefore, we provide direct evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity.


title: Respiratory disease and lower pulmonary function as risk factors for subsequent dementia: a systematic review with meta-analysis

text: Background In addition to affecting the oxygen supply to the brain, pulmonary function is a marker of multiple insults throughout life (including smoking, illness, and socioeconomic deprivation). By meta-analysing existing studies, we tested the hypothesis that lower pulmonary function and respiratory illness are linked to an elevated risk of dementia. Aims To review the best available evidence, taken from longitudinal studies, for pulmonary function and respiratory disease as risk factors of dementia. Method We conducted a systematic review of longitudinal studies using PubMed until April 1st, 2019 and, where possible, pooled results in random-effects meta-analyses. Results We identified eleven studies relating pulmonary function to later dementia risk, and eleven studies of respiratory illness and dementia (including one which studied both). The lowest quartile of lung function measure Forced Expiratory Volume in one second (FEV1) compared with the highest was associated with a 1.5-fold (1.51, 95%CI 0.94-2.42) increased dementia risk (Ntotal=127,710, 3 studies). Respiratory illness was also associated with increased dementia risk to a similar degree (1.54, 1.30-1.81, Ntotal=288,641, 11 studies). Conclusions Individuals with poor pulmonary function are at increased risk of dementia. The extent to which the association between poor pulmonary function and dementia is causal remains unclear.


title: Virome of New York Presbyterian Hospital pediatric emergency

text: Background: Viral infection of the respiratory tract is one of the major causes of hospital visits for young children. In this study, we report the occurrence and co-occurrence of different virus types and subtypes among the patients arriving at the pediatric emergency room of New York Presbyterian Hospital, a major urban hospital. Methods: We collected nasal swabs from the patients and their accompanying persons. We also recorded the levels (None, Mild, High, and Severe) of their symptoms (Fever, Chill, Muscle Pain, Watery Eye, Runny Nose, Sneezing, Sore throat and Cough). The collected swabs were tested for the presence of common viruses infecting the respiratory tract. Results: Human Rhinovirus was the most common virus among the patients, followed Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Human Rhinovirus was most common in summer, autumn and spring. In contrast, influenza was more common in winter. Further, Influenza A virus was more likely to co-occur with Corona Virus 229E. In comparison, Influenza was less likely to co-occur with Human Rhinovirus. Moreover, Influenza, Parainfluenza and Corona virus were associated with more severe symptoms, while Human Rhinovirus was associated with less severe symptoms. In addition, we observed that Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus were more likely to infect a patient when these viruses also infected the accompanying person. We also found that it was difficult to distinguish among viruses based on the symptoms. The inability to distinguish among different virus types and subtypes is explained by the fact that multiple viruses lead to similar symptoms. Conclusions: The findings of this study provide a better understanding of respiratory viral infections in small children presenting at a pediatric emergency room in New York.


title: Quality control of low-frequency variants in SARS-CoV-2 genomes

text: During the current outbreak of COVID-19, research labs around the globe submit sequences of the local SARS-CoV-2 genomes to the GISAID database to provide a comprehensive analysis of the variability and spread of the virus during the outbreak. We explored the variations in the submitted genomes and found a significant number of variants that can be seen only in one submission (singletons). While it is not completely clear whether these variants are erroneous or not, these variants show lower transition/transversion ratio. These singleton variants may influence the estimations of the viral mutation rate and tree topology. We suggest that genomes with multiple singletons even marked as high-covered should be considered with caution. We also provide a simple script for checking variant frequency against the database before submission.


Thomas Bopp/Holger Kircher (eds): Handbuch Europäischer Patentprozess CH Beck 2019


title: Development and Validation of Two In-house, Low-Cost SARS-CoV-2 Detection Assays

text: Background One major challenge for detecting the virus that causes COVID19 is commercial SARSCoV2 testing kit or reagent availability. To allow every laboratory or hospital access to an inhouse assay, we developed two low cost SARSCoV2 detection assay protocols using inhouse primers and reagents equipment on hand in most biology or diagnostic laboratories a SYBR Green based RTPCR and PCR assays. RNA extraction has also become a major bottleneck due to limited supplies and the required labor. Thus, we validated alternative RNA extraction protocols. Methods SARSCoV2 genome sequences deposited into the GISAID database were retrieved to design and synthesize inhouse primers. Forty patient samples were collected by nasopharyngeal swab, coded, and used to develop and validate the assay protocols. Both assays used TRIzol and heat-processing techniques to extract RNA from patient samples and to inactivate the virus; thus, testing was conducted in a conventional biosafety level 2 laboratory. Results The sensitivity and specificity of the primers were evaluated using samples previously confirmed positive for SARSCoV2. The positive amplicons were sequenced to confirm the results. The assay protocols were developed, and the specificity of each PCR product was confirmed using melting curve analyses. The most accurate heat processing technique for primers with short amplicon lengths was 95C for 15 mins. Of 40 samples, both the SYBR Green based quantitative RTPCR assay and the PCR assay detected SARSCoV2 target genes in 28 samples, with no false positive or false-negative results. These findings were concordant with those of the diagnostic laboratory that tested the same samples using a Rotor Gene PCR cycler with an Altona Diagnostics SARSCoV2 kit (R2=0.889). Conclusions These approaches are reliable, repeatable, specific, sensitive, simple, and low cost tools for the detection of SARSCoV2 in a conventional biosafety level 2 laboratory, offering alternative approaches when commercial kits are unavailable or cost ineffective.


Xenophobia in the time of pandemic: othering, anti-Asian attitudes, and COVID-19


title: SARS-CoV-2 Detection in Sewage in Santiago, Chile - Preliminary results.

text: The detection of viruses in sewage is a method of environmental surveillance, which allows evaluating the circulation of different viruses in a community. This study presents the first results of sewage surveillance to detect the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 virus in Santiago, Chile. Using ultracentrifugation associated with RT-qPCR, we detected SARS-CoV-2 in untreated and treated wastewater samples obtained two treatment plants, which together process around 85% of the wastewater from the city. This is the first report of detection of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage in Chile and indicates that wastewater surveillance could be a sensitive tool useful as a predictive marker of the circulation of the virus in a population and therefore, be used as an early warning tool.


title: Risk Stratification for Healthcare workers during the CoViD-19 Pandemic; using demographics, co-morbid disease and clinical domain in order to assign clinical duties

text: Background: Healthcare workers have a greater exposure to individuals with confirmed SARS-novel coronavirus 2, and thus a higher probability of contracting corona virus disease (CoViD)-19, than the general population. It is critically important, therefore, for health systems to protect the lives of their staff especially those on the frontline. Urgent work is needed to identify how best to protect those most at risk in an evidence-based way in order to implement protective allocations. We wished to explore the predictive role of basic demographics in order to establish a simple tool that could help risk stratify healthcare workers. Objectives and Study question: To develop a risk stratification tool for use to assist staff allocation by examining reported demographics of hospitalisation and mortality in the UK from CoViD-19 compared to population demographics and historic admissions for viral pneumoniae. Setting: Secondary Care in the UK and worldwide. Participants: Patients and Health Care Professionals hospitalised and dying of CoViD-19. Methods: We undertook a review of the published literature (including multiple search strategies in MEDLINE with PubMed interface) and critically assessed early reports on medRxiv, a pre-print server (https://www.medrxiv.org/) (date of last search: April 30, 2020). We explored the relative risk of mortality from readily available demographics in order to identify the population at highest risk. Results: The only published studies specifically assessing the risk of healthcare workers had limited demographics available, therefore we explored the general population in the literature. Clinician Demographics. Mortality increased with increasing age from 50 years onwards. Male sex at birth, people of black and minority ethnicity groups had higher susceptibility to both hospitalisation and mortality. Co-morbid Disease. Vascular disease, diabetes and chronic pulmonary disease further increased risk. Those with pre-existing mental health issues may also be more likely to experience emotional trauma, depression and anxiety with consequences for self-harm too. Risk stratification tool. A risk stratification tool was compiled using a Caucasian female <50years with no comorbidities as a reference. A point allocated to risk factors associated with an approximate doubling in risk. This tool provides numerical support for healthcare workers when determining which team members should be allocated to patient facing clinical duties compared to remote supportive roles. Clinical Domain. Those working with aerosol generating procedures were at increased risk, however healthcare workers in any clinical domain are at higher risk than the general population. Conclusions. We have generated a tool which can provide a framework for objective risk stratification of doctors and health care professionals during the CoViD-19 pandemic.


title: Real-Time Defect Correction in Large-Scale Polymer Additive Manufacturing via Thermal Imaging and Laser Profilometer

text: Abstract Defects can result in a failed part and are costly in terms of time and material. This cost is even greater in the context of large-scale additive manufacturing where the objects can be very large. As a result, a great deal of research has focused on defect identification and mitigation. To address defects during object construction, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Manufacturing Demonstration Facility investigated an in-situ control system comprised of two sensors: a thermal camera and laser profilometer. This control system adjusted material flow and build speed to mitigate three types of defects: low layer times, underfill, and overfill. Several test objects were constructed. The control system was found to adjust build parameters to handle low layer times of approximately 15 seconds and height deviations from -100% underfill (the absence of a layer) to 50% overfill. Within two layers, height deviations could be returned to within 10% of the expected layer height. Further, preliminary results suggest the system can compensate for uneven build surfaces.


title: A Time-Dependent SEIRD Model for Forecasting the COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics

text: The spread of a disease caused by a virus can happen through human to human contact or could be from the environment. A mathematical model could be used to capture the dynamics of the disease spread to estimate the infections, recoveries, and deaths that may result from the disease. An estimation is crucial to make policy decisions and for the alerts for the medical emergencies that may arise. Many epidemiological models are being used to make such an estimation. One major factor that is important in the forecasts using the models is the dynamic nature of the disease spread. Unless we can come up with a way of estimating the parameters that guide this dynamic spread, the models may not give accurate forecasts. In this work, using the SEIRD model, attempts are made to forecast Infected, Recovered and Death rates of COVID-19 up to a week using an incremental approach. A method of optimizing the parameters of the model is also discussed thoroughly in this work. The model is evaluated using the data taken from the COVID-19 India tracker [2], a crowd-sourced platform for India. The model is tested with the whole country as well as all the states and districts. The results of all the states and districts obtained from our model can be seen in [12]. Forecasts for infected and Deaths for the whole country and the state of Maharashtra are satisfactory with an average % error rate of 3.47 and 3.60 for infected and 3.88 and 1.61 for deaths respectively. It is supposed to be a reasonable estimate which can help the governments in planning for emergencies such as ICU requirements, PPEs, hospitalizations, and so on as the infection is going to be prevalent for some time to come


title: One-Step Rapid Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 Virus Particles via Low-Cost Nanoplasmonic Sensors in Generic Microplate Reader and Point-of-Care Device

text: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the ongoing global pandemics has led to infections of millions of people and losses of many lives. The rapid, accurate and convenient SARS-CoV-2 virus detection is crucial for controlling and stopping the pandemics. Diagnosis of patients in the early stage infection are so far limited to viral nucleic acid or antigen detection in human nasopharyngeal swab or saliva samples. Here we developed a method for rapid and direct optical measurement of SARS-CoV-2 virus particles in one step nearly without any sample preparation using a spike protein specific nanoplasmonic resonance sensor. We demonstrate that we can detect as few as 30 virus particles in one step within 15 minutes and can quantify the virus concentration linearly in the range of 103 vp/ml to 106 vp/ml. Measurements shown on both generic microplate reader and a handheld smartphone connected device suggest that our low-cost and rapid detection method may be adopted quickly under both regular clinical environment and resource-limited settings.


title: Pixatimod (PG545), a clinical-stage heparan sulfate mimetic, is a potent inhibitor of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

text: A major global effort is currently ongoing to search for therapeutics and vaccines to treat or prevent infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Repurposing existing entities is one attractive approach. The heparan sulfate mimetic pixatimod is a clinical-stage synthetic sulfated compound that is a potent inhibitor of the glycosidase heparanase, and has known anti-cancer, anti-inflammatory and also antiviral properties. Here we show that pixatimod binds directly to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein S1 receptor binding domain (RBD) and alters its conformation. Notably, this site overlaps with the known ACE2 binding site in the S1 RBD. We find that pixatimod inhibits binding of recombinant S1 RBD to Vero cells which express the ACE2 receptor. Moreover, in assays with three different isolates of live SARS-CoV-2 virus we show that pixatimod effectively inhibits viral infection of Vero cells. Importantly, its potency is well within its safe therapeutic dose range. These data provide evidence that pixatimod is a potent antiviral agent against SARS-CoV-2. Together with its other known activities this provides a strong rationale for its clinical investigation as a new multimodal therapeutic for the current COVID-19 pandemic.


title: Correlation Analysis Between Disease Severity and Inflammation-related Parameters in Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia

text: Aim: The new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreaking at the end of 2019 is highly contagious. Crude mortality rate reached 49% in critical patients. Inflammation matters on disease progression. This study analyzed blood inflammation indicators among mild, severe and critical patients, helping to identify severe or critical patients early. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 100 patients were included and divided to mild, severe or critical groups. Correlation of peripheral blood inflammation-related indicators with disease criticality was analyzed. Cut-off values for critically ill patients were speculated through the ROC curve. Results：Significantly, disease severity were associated with age (R=-0.564, P<0.001), interleukin-2 receptor (IL2R) (R=-0.534, P<0.001), interleukin-6 (IL-6) (R=-0.535, P<0.001), interleukin-8 (IL-8) (R=-0.308, P<0.001), interleukin-10 (IL-10) (R=-0.422, P<0.001), tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) (R=-0.322, P<0.001), C-reactive protein (CRP) (R=-0.604, P<0.001), ferroprotein (R=-0.508, P<0.001), procalcitonin (R=-0.650, P<0.001), white cell counts (WBC) (R=-0.54, P<0.001), lymphocyte counts (LC) (R=-0.56, P<0.001), neutrophil count (NC) (R=-0.585, P<0.001) and eosinophil counts (EC) (R=-0.299, P=0.01). Conclusion：With following parameters such as age >67.5 years, IL2R >793.5U/mL, CRP >30.7ng/mL, ferroprotein >2252μg/L, WBC>9.5*10^9/L or NC >7.305*10^9/L, the progress of COVID-19 to critical stage should be closely observed and possibly prevented. Inflammation is closely related to severity of COVID-19, and IL-6, TNFα and IL-8 might be promising therapeutic targets.


title: COVID-19 in Iran, a comprehensive investigation from exposure to treatment outcomes

text: Purpose There is a growing need for information regarding the recent coronavirus disease of 2019 (Covid-19). We present a comprehensive report of Covid-19 patients in Iran. Methods One hundred hospitalized patients with Covid-19 were studied. Data on potential source of exposure, demographic, clinical, and paraclinical features, therapy outcome, and post-discharge follow-up were analyzed. Results The median age of the patients was 58 years, and the majority of the patients (72.7%) were above 50 years of age. Fever was present in 45.2% of the patients on admission. The most common clinical symptoms were shortness of breath (74%) and cough (68%). Most patients had elevated C-reactive protein (92.3%), elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (82.9%), lymphocytopenia (74.2 %) on admission. Lower lobes of the lung were most commonly involved, and ground-glass opacity (81.8%) was the most frequent finding in CT scans. The administration of hydroxychloroquine improved the clinical outcome of the patients. Lopinavir/ritonavir was efficacious at younger ages. Of the 70 discharged patients, 40% had symptom relapse, (8.6%) were readmitted to the hospital, and 3 patients (4.3%) died. Conclusion This report demonstrates a heterogeneous nature of clinical manifestations in patients affected with Covid-19. The most common presenting symptoms are non-specific, so attention should be made on broader testing, especially in age groups with the greatest risk and younger individuals who can serve as carriers of the disease. Hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir (in younger age group) can be potential treatment options. Finally, patients discharged from the hospital should be followed up because of potential symptom relapse.


title: Polymorphism and selection pressure of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and diagnostic antigens: implications for immune evasion and serologic diagnostic performance

text: The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has triggered multiple efforts for serological tests and vaccine development. Most of these tests and vaccines are based on the Spike glycoprotein (S) or the Nucleocapsid (N) viral protein. Conservation of these antigens among viral strains is critical to ensure optimum diagnostic test performance and broad protective efficacy, respectively. We assessed N and S antigen diversity from 17,853 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences and evaluated selection pressure. Up to 6-7 incipient phylogenetic clades were identified for both antigens, confirming early variants of the S antigen and identifying new ones. Significant diversifying selection was detected at multiple sites for both antigens. Some sequence variants have already spread in multiple regions, in spite of their low frequency. In conclusion, the N and S antigens of SARS-CoV-2 are well conserved antigens, but new clades are emerging and may need to be included in future diagnostic and vaccine formulations.


title: Rapid and quantitative detection of COVID-19 markers in micro-liter sized samples

text: COVID-19 pandemic has caused tens of thousands of deaths and is now a severe threat to global health. Clinical practice has demonstrated that the SARS-CoV-2 S1 specific antibodies and viral antigens can be used as diagnostic and prognostic markers of COVID-19. However, the popular point-of-care biomarker detection technologies, such as the lateral-flow test strips, provide only yes/no information and have very limited sensitivities. Thus, it has a high false negative rate and cannot be used for the quantitative evaluation of patient’s immune response. Conventional ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay), on the other hand, can provide quantitative, accurate, and sensitive results, but it involves complicated and expensive instruments and long assay time. In addition, samples need to be sent to centralized labs, which significantly increases the turn-around time. Here, we present a microfluidic ELISA technology for rapid (15-20 minutes), quantitative, sensitive detection of SARS-CoV-2 biomarkers using SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG and viral antigen – S protein in serum. We also characterized various humanized monoclonal IgG, and identified a candidate with a high binding affinity towards SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein that can serve as the calibration standard of anti-SARS-CoV-2 S1 IgG in serological analyses. Furthermore, we demonstrated that our microfluidic ELISA platform can be used for rapid affinity evaluation of monoclonal anti-S1 antibodies. The microfluidic ELISA device is highly portable and requires less than 10 μL of samples for each channel. Therefore, our technology will greatly facilitate rapid and quantitative analysis of COVID-19 patients and vaccine recipients at point-of-care.


title: Divergent SARS-CoV-2-specific T and B cell responses in severe but not mild COVID-19

text: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding both the immunological processes providing specific immunity and potential immunopathology underlying the pathogenesis of this disease may provide valuable insights for potential therapeutic interventions. Here, we quantified SARS-CoV-2 specific immune responses in patients with different clinical courses. Compared to individuals with a mild clinical presentation, CD4+ T cell responses were qualitatively impaired in critically ill patients. Strikingly, however, in these patients the specific IgG antibody response was remarkably strong. The observed disparate T and B cell responses could be indicative of a deregulated immune response in critically ill COVID-19 patients.


title: Gender-Based Disparities in COVID-19: Clinical Characteristics and Propensity-matched Analysis of Outcomes

text: Importance COVID-19 epidemiological data show higher mortality rates among males compared to females. However, it remains unclear if the disparity in mortality is due to gender differences in high-risk characteristics. Objective To study the clinical characteristics of a large and diverse cohort of COVID-19 patients stratified by gender and determine the outcomes after matching for age and other high-risk characteristics. Design Retrospective cohort between January 20, 2020, and April 15, 2020 Setting TriNetX COVID-19 Research Network consisting of multiple healthcare organizations (HCOs) predominantly in the United States Participants and Exposure A cohort of male and female patients > 10 years of age diagnosed with COVID-19 identified with real-time analyses of electronic medical records of patients from participating HCOs. A 1:1 propensity score matching of cohorts was performed for age, race, nicotine use, and all possible confounding comorbidities. Main Outcome Risk of mortality, hospitalization and mechanical ventilation within 30 days after the diagnosis of COVID-19 Results A total of 5980 males and 7730 females diagnosed with COVID-19 were identified. Males were significantly older than females (54.9 (18.3) vs. 50.9 (18.4), p-value <0.0001). There were significant differences in patient characteristics, but after propensity matching, both groups (N=5350 each group) were balanced. Males had a significantly higher risk for mortality both before (Risk Ratio (RR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.8-2.4) and after matching (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7). Similarly, the risk of hospitalization (RR 1.3, 95%CI 1.2-1.4) and mechanical ventilation (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.3-2.3) was significantly higher in males even after matching. On subanalysis, males age > 50 had higher mortality than matched females of similar age (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4-1.8), whereas the risk of mortality in matched groups < 40 years was similar (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.4-2.4). Conclusion In conclusion, males are more severely affected and have higher mortality from COVID-19. This gender-specific risk is especially more pronounced in advanced age. Gender disparity in poor outcomes can only be partially explained by differences in high-risk behavior and comorbidities. Further research is needed to understand the causes of this disparity.


title: Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement

text: The spread of COVID-19 is posing an unprecedented threat to health systems worldwide[1]. The fast propagation of the disease combined with the existence of covert contagions by asymptomatic individuals make the controlling of this disease particularly challenging. The key parameter to track the progression of the epidemics is the effective reproduction number R, defined as the number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual[2]. The suppression of the epidemics is directly related to this value, and is attained when R<1.Here, we find an analytical expression for R as a function of mobility restrictions and confinement measures, using an epidemic model tailored for COVID-19. This expression for R is an extremely useful tool to design containment policies that are able to suppress the epidemics. We applied our epidemic model for the case of Spain, successfully forecasting both the observed incidence in each region and the overload of the health system. The expression for R allowed us to determine the precise reduction of mobility kappa_0 needed to bend the curve of epidemic incidence, which turned out to be kappa_0 ≈ 0.7. This value, for the case of Spain, translates to a total lockdown with the exception of the mobility associated to essential services, a policy that was finally enforced on March 28.


title: Rapid characterization of the propagation of COVID-19 in different countries

text: BACKGROUND COVID-19 has spread rapidly, and there are still many characteristics of this new disease to be unveiled. We propose a simple method to calculate a figure of merit FC to provide an early characterization of the disease status in country C. METHODS We use mathematical tools to adjust a Gaussian function to the daily increase of infected patients. Maximum value and full width half maximum of the Gaussian are characteristics of the development of the development of the pandemic in each country. These parameters are supplemented by the testing volume and the mortality rate to produce just one characterizing parameter: FC. In addition, the stability of the Gaussian fits was calculated within an entire week towards the end of the study period. Seventeen different countries were fully considered, while others are considered when discussing particular properties. Data employed is publically available. FINDINGS Fitted Gaussian functions render effective information about the development of COVID-19. The number of critical days vary between 11 (South Korea) and 52 (Mexico). FC varies between 1 (Australia) and 899 (Mexico). The epidemic appears stabilized in some countries and unstable in others. Some large countries are experiencing fast development of the propagation of the disease with high FC. A correlation between low (high) values of the mortality rate (and to some extent FC) and the presence (absence) of BCG vaccination is exposed. INTERPRETATION The adjustment of a Gaussian to daily data of COVID-19 in each country reveals the different propagation dynamics, properly characterized by the parameters proposed here. Testing plays a clear role to control the spread of the disease. Mortality rate spans more than one order of magnitude and is somewhat related to permanent massive BCG vaccination. The figure of merit, FC, introduced here spans more than 2 orders of magnitude which makes it a useful indicator to quickly find out the status of the pandemics in each territory. Geography plays a role: low population density and isolated countries can be efficient in controlling the spread of the disease.


title: Prevention program for the COVID-19 in a children’s digestive endoscopy center

text: The pneumonia caused by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. The gastrointestinal symptoms of vomiting, diarrhea and abdominal pain and the detection of COVID-19 nucleic acid from fecal specimens in a small number of patients suggest the possibility of transmission via the gastrointestinal tract. People of all ages are vulnerable to this virus, including children. Digestive endoscopy is an invasive procedure during which children cannot wear masks; therefore, they have higher risks of exposure to COVID-19, and the digestive endoscopy center is a relatively high-risk area for COVID-19 infection. Based on these factors and in combination with related policies and regulations, a prevention and control program for the COVID-19 pneumonia in a children's digestive endoscopy center was established to prevent the COVID-19 nosocomial infection.


title: Challenges of COVID-19 outbreak on the cruise ship Diamond Princess docked at Yokohama, Japan: a real-world story

text: The event of the Diamond Princess, with a total of 712 (as of 17 March 2020) persons infected on the cruise ship, attracted global attention as the largest disease cluster outside China for the period 7 to 24 February 2020 Representing the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the authors were heavily engaged in the quarantine operation on the cruise ship ourselves During the quarantine period from 5 to 23 February 2020, when the last group of the quarantined passengers left the ship, a series of measures have been conducted under the principles of i) zero deaths among all on board, ii) rapid establishment and thorough implementation of an infection control system, and iii) maintenance of health conditions and relief of anxieties among passengers and crew members The case of Diamond Princess has implications of more than a cruise ship but deserves full scientific analysis to learn lessons from this operation as well as to study the characteristics, particularly the transmission of COVID-19


title: Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality

text: The COVID-19 outbreak is triggering a global crisis that is challenging governments, health systems and the scientific community worldwide. A central question in the COVID-19 pandemic is whether climatic factors modulate its progression. This information is key to epidemiologists and healthcare decision-makers for improving their management plans. Previous attempts to assess the impact of climatic parameters have yielded ambiguous results, either because they were using geographically or temporally restricted data, or because they were comparing infection rates across countries, which were measured differently depending on local screening strategies. In March 2020, the spread of COVID-19 dramatically increased the number of countries recording deaths, providing an opportunity to use mortality rate, which is measured more homogeneously across countries than infection rates, as a descriptor of the COVID-19 outbreak over a large latitudinal range. Here, using data recorded in 208 territories from 88 countries, we show that mortality rate is negatively influenced by warmer air temperature and positively affected by higher relative humidity. Each additional Celsius degree decreases mortality rate by ~4%, while a 1% increase in relative humidity raises mortality rate by ~2%. Temperature is positively correlated with UV-index, for which one unit of increase results in a ~15% decrease in the mortality rate. We also show that other factors contribute to the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak, such as the proportion of vulnerable age classes in the population, access to a non-overwhelmed health system, as well as governmental travel restrictions for controlling the spread of the disease. All of them are critical factors impacting the mortality rate of COVID-19. The influence of climatic factors is a warning to all southern hemisphere countries where winter is coming soon. Northern hemisphere countries should also be warned that climatic factors alone will likely not be sufficient to contain the disease.


title: Integration of viral transcriptome sequencing with structure and sequence motifs predicts novel regulatory elements in SARS-CoV-2

text: In the last twenty years, three separate coronaviruses have left their typical animal hosts and became human pathogens. An area of research interest is coronavirus transcription regulation that uses an RNA-RNA mediated template-switching mechanism. It is not known how different transcriptional stoichiometries of each viral gene are generated. Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequencing data from whole RNA transcriptomes identified TRS dependent and independent transcripts. Integration of transcripts and 5’-UTR sequence motifs identified that the pentaloop and the stem-loop 3 were also located upstream of spliced genes. TRS independent transcripts were detected as likely non-polyadenylated. Additionally, a novel conserved sequence motif was discovered at either end of the TRS independent splice junctions. While similar both SARS viruses generated similar TRS independent transcripts they were more abundant in SARS-CoV-2. TRS independent gene regulation requires investigation to determine its relationship to viral pathogenicity.


title: The impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak on liver transplantation programs in Northern Italy

text: In January 2020, Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) resulted in a global pandemic, creating uncertainty toward the management of liver transplantation (LT) programs. Lombardy has been the most affected region in Italy: the current mortality rate of COVID‐19 patients is 18.3% (10 022 deaths; April 10th) with hospitals in Lombardy having to expand the total number of ICU beds from 724 to 1381 to accommodate infected patients. There has been a drastic decrease in liver donors. From February 23rd until April 10th, 17 LTs were performed in Lombardy. Mean donor age was 49 years (range 18‐74) whereas mean recipient age was 55 (13‐69); mean MELD score was 12 (6‐24). All donors underwent screening for SARS‐CoV‐2 prior to LT. Two patients tested positive after LT, and one patient died for COVID on POD 30. Sixteen patients are alive after an average of 30 days post‐LT (range 3‐46). 10 patients have been discharged. This study has found no specific reason concerning the safety of recipients, to stop LT programs. Several key lessons from our experience are reported. However, due to the complex circumstances which surround the viral outbreak, the cessation or a reduction in LT activity is a pragmatic requirement.


title: Postlude

text: Unknown


title: Evidence for gastrointestinal infection of SARS-CoV-2

text: The new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak originating from Wuhan, China, poses a threat to global health. While it's evident that the virus invades respiratory tract and transmits from human to human through airway, other viral tropisms and transmission routes remain unknown. We tested viral RNA in stool from 73 SARS-CoV-2-infected hospitalized patients using rRT-PCR. 53.42% of the patients tested positive in stool. 23.29% of the patients remained positive in feces even after the viral RNA decreased to undetectable level in respiratory tract. The viral RNA was also detected in gastrointestinal tissues. Furthermore, gastric, duodenal and rectal epithelia showed positive immunofluorescent staining of viral host receptor ACE2 and viral nucleocapsid protein in a case of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results provide evidence for gastrointestinal infection of SARS-CoV-2, highlighting its potential fecal-oral transmission route.


title: Sensitive one-step isothermal detection of pathogen-derived RNAs

text: The recent outbreaks of Ebola, Zika, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV) require fast, simple, and sensitive onsite nucleic acid diagnostics that can be developed rapidly to prevent the spread of diseases. We have developed a SENsitive Splint-based one-step isothermal RNA detection (SENSR) method for rapid and straightforward onsite detection of pathogen RNAs with high sensitivity and specificity. SENSR consists of two simple enzymatic reactions: a ligation reaction by SplintR ligase and subsequent transcription by T7 RNA polymerase. The resulting transcript forms an RNA aptamer that induces fluorescence. Here, we demonstrate that SENSR is an effective and highly sensitive method for the detection of the current epidemic pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We also show that the platform can be extended to the detection of five other pathogens. Overall, SENSR is a molecular diagnostic method that can be developed rapidly for onsite uses requiring high sensitivity, specificity, and short assaying times.


title: Clinical and Laboratory Profiles of 75 Hospitalized Patients with Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hefei, China

text: The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection began in December 2019 in Wuhan, and rapidly spread to many provinces in China. The number of cases has increased markedly in Anhui, but information on the clinical characteristics of patients is limited. We reported 75 patients with COVID-19 in the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC from Jan 21 to Feb 16, 2020, Hefei, Anhui Province, China. COVID-19 infection was confirmed by real-time RT-PCR of respiratory nasopharyngeal swab samples. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data were collected and analyzed. Of the 75 patients with COVID-19, 61 (81.33%) had a direct or indirect exposure history to Wuhan. Common symptoms at onset included fever (66 [88.0%] of 75 patients) and dry cough (62 [82.67%]). Of the patients without fever, cough could be the only or primary symptom. The most prominent laboratory abnormalities were lymphopenia, decreased percentage of lymphocytes (LYM%), decreased CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts, elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Patients with elevated interleukin 6 (IL-6) showed significant decreases in the LYM%, CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts. Besides, the percentage of neutrophils, CRP, LDH and Procalcitonin levels increased significantly. We concluded that COVID-19 could cause different degrees of hematological abnormalities and damage of internal organs. Hematological profiles including LYM, LDH, CRP and IL-6 could be indicators of diseases severity and evaluation of treatment effectiveness. Antiviral treatment requires a comprehensive and supportive approach. Further targeted therapy should be determined based on individual clinical manifestations and laboratory indicators.


title: From SARS-COV to NCOV-2019: Ruction and argument

text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are positive-sense single-stranded RNA viruses with the largest known genomes among RNA viruses (27-34 kb). CoVs constitute the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae, in the family Coronaviridae. The name coronavirus is derived from the Latin word corona, meaning crown or halo, which can be seen under an electron microscope.


The eyes of the storm: Spies are on the streets of Uganda making sure everyone abides by Covid-19 rules. They’re spying on political opposition too. A dispatch from Kampala


title: First environmental surveillance for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and river water in Japan

text: Wastewater-based epidemiology can be a powerful tool to understand the actual incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a community because severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of COVID-19, can be shed in the feces of infected individuals regardless of their symptoms. The present study aimed to assess the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and river water in Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan, using four quantitative and two nested PCR assays. Influent and secondary-treated (before chlorination) wastewater samples and river water samples were collected five times from a wastewater treatment plant and three times from a river, respectively, between March 17 and May 7, 2020. The wastewater and river water samples (200-5,000 mL) were processed by using two different methods: the electronegative membrane-vortex (EMV) method and the membrane adsorption-direct RNA extraction method. Based on the observed concentrations of indigenous pepper mild mottle virus RNA, the EMV method was found superior to the membrane adsorption-direct RNA extraction method. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was successfully detected in one of five secondary-treated wastewater samples with a concentration of 2.4 x 103 copies/L by N_Sarbeco qPCR assay following the EMV method, whereas all the influent samples were tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. This result could be attributed to higher limit of detection for influent (4.0 x 103-8.2 x 104 copies/L) with a lower filtration volume (200 mL) compared to that for secondary-treated wastewater (1.4 x 102-2.5 x 103 copies/L) with a higher filtration volume of 5,000 mL. None of the river water samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Comparison with the reported COVID-19 cases in Yamanashi Prefecture showed that SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in the secondary-treated wastewater sample when the cases peaked in the community. This is the first study reporting the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater in Japan.


title: Big pharma’s quiet effort to find new coronavirus antivirals

text: The early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic were a scramble as infectious disease experts looked for anything in the medicine cabinet that might work to treat COVID-19 Clinicians tried drugs designed for other viruses—HIV, Ebola virus, influenza viruses—hoping that the proteins they target would be similar enough to those in this virus, SARS-CoV-2 Those efforts get you only so far Viruses have subtle differences in their machinery, not to mention the way they wreak havoc on the body Even when a drug offers modest benefits, it might not be suitable for widespread use For example, Gilead Sciences’ antiviral remdesivir, originally developed for Ebola, appears to help some people with COVID-19 recover faster But it is also an intravenous drug and so can’t be used to prevent people from getting sick The medicine chest needs more options, ideally ones tailor made for this coronavirus In the past 6 weeks, big pharma


title: Sensitivity assessment of SARS-CoV-2 PCR assays developed by WHO referral laboratories

text: The sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests developed by Charite (Germany), HKU (Hong-Kong), China CDC (China), US CDC (United-States), and Institut Pasteur, Paris (France) was assessed on SARS-CoV-2 cell culture supernatants and clinical samples. Although all RT-PCR assays performed well for SARS-CoV-2 detection, RdRp Institut Pasteur (IP2, IP4), N China CDC, and N1 US CDC were found to be the most sensitive.


title: COVID-19 and dental practice: Overview and protocols during pandemic

text: In December 2019, in Wuhan (China), there were described the first cases of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome caused by SARS-CoV-2 and named COVID-19 Since then the disease has spread in several countries and in March 2020 the WHO declared it pandemic COVID-19 is associated with a wide range of manifestations from no symptoms to temperature cough, dyspnea, need for artificial ventilation and eventually death Mortality has been reported to be around 3% Cases of spreading from asymptomatic infected individuals have been documented It has become clear that among healthcare professionals, dentists are the most exposed category to the risk of such infection as the routes of transmission are contact, droplets and aerosol, therefore the necessity of providing clear guidelines has suddenly arisen This article is aimed at analysing the available literature about "SARS-CoV-2" and "COVID-19", and comparing it with the guidelines for other coronavirus infections and dental practice with a view to providing clinical recommendations about prevention and infection control in the dental environment


title: Clinical recommendations for psychotherapists working during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic through the lens of AEDP (Accelerated Experiential Dynamic Psychotherapy)

text: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic created an unprecedented physical and mental health crisis on an international scale. Clients and therapists alike navigated the fears and uncertainty surrounding the virus, often in an environment of social isolation. The following paper presents a brief overview of the unique stressors and psychosocial factors impacting therapeutic work in the time of the coronavirus pandemic, including fears of the virus and social transmission, relational stressors due to isolation, grieving in isolation, fear of death, financial challenges, and the transition to telehealth. In addition, this paper aims to provide specific interventions and helpful approaches for psychotherapists navigating the novel challenges and demands to their clinical work through an AEDP (Accelerated Experiential Dynamic Psychotherapy) perceptive. This includes finding an entry point for accessing the pain: undoing aloneness; moving through the pain: dyadic affect regulation; and paying close attention to vitality within suffering: searching for transformance. Recommendations for the health and care of the clinician are also discussed, such as attuning to self-needs, anticipating and detecting dysregulation, staying with the good, meaning-making, identifying and responding to burnout, and the importance of receiving personal therapy and clinical supervision.


title: The Potential Impact of Interruptions to HIV Services: A Modelling Case Study for South Africa

text: The numbers of deaths caused by HIV could increase substantially if the COVID-19 epidemic leads to interruptions in the availability of HIV services. We compare publicly available scenarios for COVID-19 mortality with predicted additional HIV-related mortality based on assumptions about possible interruptions in HIV programs. An interruption in the supply of ART for 40% of those on ART for 3 months could cause a number of deaths on the same order of magnitude as the number that are anticipated to be saved from COVID-19 through social distancing measures. In contrast, if the disruption can be managed such that the supply and usage of ART is maintained, the increase in AIDS deaths would be limited to 1% over five years, although this could still be accompanied by substantial increases in new HIV infections if there are reductions in VMMC, oral PrEP use, and condom availability.


title: Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak

text: This work is motivated by the recent worldwide pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). When an epidemiological disease is prevalent, estimating the case fatality rate, the proportion of deaths out of the total cases, accurately and quickly is important as the case fatality rate is one of the crucial indicators of the risk of a disease. In this work, we propose an alternative estimator of the case fatality rate that provides more accurate estimate during an outbreak by reducing the downward bias (underestimation) of the naive CFR, the proportion of deaths out of confirmed cases at each time point, which is the most commonly used estimator due to the simplicity. The proposed estimator is designed to achieve the availability of real-time update by using the commonly reported quantities , the numbers of confirmed, cured, deceased cases, in the computation. To enhance the accuracy, the proposed estimator adapts a stratification, that allows the estimator to use information from heterogeneous strata separately. With the COVID-19 cases of China, South Korea and the United States, we numerically show the proposed stratification-based estimator plays a role of providing an early warning about the severity of a epidemiological disease that estimates the final case fatality rate accurately and shows faster convergence to the final case fatality rate.


title: Application of Machine Learning to the Prediction of Surface Roughness in Diamond Machining

text: Abstract The manufacturing process for single-point diamond turning germanium (Ge) can be complex when it comes to freeform IR optics. The multi-variant problem requires an operator to understand that the machining input parameters and choice of tooling will dictate the efficiency of generating surfaces with the appropriate tolerances. Ge is a brittle material and exhibits surface fracture when diamond turned. However, with the introduction of a negatively raked tool, surface fracture can be suppressed such that plastic flow of the material is possible. This paper focuses on the application and evaluation of machine learning methods to better assist the prediction of surface roughness parameters in Ge and provides a comparison with a well-understood ductile material, copper (Cu). Preliminary results show that both classic machine learning (ML) methods and artificial neural network (ANN) models offer improved predictive capability when compared with analytical prediction of surface roughness for both materials. Significantly, ML and ANN models were able to perform well for both Ge, a brittle material prone to surface fracture, and the more ductile Cu. ANN models offered the best prediction tool overall with minimal error. From a computational perspective, both ML and ANN models were able to achieve good results with smaller datasets than typical for many ML applications—which is beneficial since diamond turning can be costly.


Deep Restoration: from The Great Implosion to The Great Awakening


title: Automatic Detection of COVID-19 Infection from Chest X-ray using Deep Learning

text: COVID-19 infection has created a panic across the globe in recent times. Early detection of COVID-19 infection can save many lives in the pre-vailing situation. This virus affects the respiratory system of a person and creates white patchy shadows in the lungs. Deep learning is one of the most effective Artificial Intelligence techniques to analyse chest X-ray images for efficient and reliable COVID-19 screening. In this paper, we have proposed a Deep Convolutional Neural Network method for fast and dependable identification of COVID-19 infection cases from the patient chest X-ray images. To validate the performance of the proposed system, chest X-ray images of more than 150 confirmed COVID-19 patients from the Kaggle data repository are used in the experimentation. The results show that the proposed system identifies the cases with an accuracy of 93%.


Coronopandemie: Chemie arbeitet am Vorbeugen und Heilen


title: Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries

text: Background As governments across Europe have issued non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and school closing, the mobility patterns in these countries have changed. It is likely different countries and populations respond differently to the same NPIs and that these differences are reflected in the epidemic development. Methods We build a Bayesian model that estimates the number of deaths on a given day dependent on changes in the basic reproductive number, R0, due to changes in mobility patterns. We utilize mobility data from Google mobility reports using five different categories: retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, transit stations, workplace and residential. The importance of each mobility category for predicting changes in R0 is estimated through the model. Findings The changes in mobility have a large overlap with the introduction of governmental NPIs, highlighting the importance of government action for population behavioural change. The grocery and pharmacy sector is estimated to account for 97 % of the reduction in R0 (95% confidence interval [0⋅79,0⋅99]). Interpretation Our model predicts three-week epidemic forecasts, using real-time observations of changes in mobility patterns, which can provide governments with direct feedback on the effects of their NPIs. The model predicts the changes in a majority of the countries accurately but overestimates the impact of NPIs in Sweden and Denmark and underestimates them in France and Belgium. Funding Financial support: Swedish Research Council for Natural Science, grant No. VR-2016-06301 and Swedish E-science Research Center. Computational resources: Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing, grant No. SNIC-2019/3-319.


title: Double-Quencher Probes Improved the Detection Sensitivity of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by One-Step RT-PCR

text: Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerges in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, spreads worldwide, and threats the human life. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 is important for the prevention of the outbreak and management of patients. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay detected the virus in clinical laboratory. Methods: This study utilized primers and single-quencher probes in accordance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the USA and the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) in Japan. Moreover, we designed the double-quencher probes (YCH assay) according to the oligonucleotide sequence established by NIID. Using these assays, we conducted a one-step real-time RT-PCR with serial DNA positive control to assess the detection sensitivity. Results: The threshold cycle (Ct) value of RT-PCR was relatively low in CDC and YCH assays compared to NIID assay. Serial dilution assay showed that both CDC and YCH assays could detect a low-copy number of DNA positive control. The background fluorescent signal at the baseline was lower in YCH than that of NIID. Conclusion: Double-quencher probes decreased background fluorescent signal and improved detection sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2.


title: Covid-19 outbreak and perspective in morocco

text: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory illness that can spread from person to person. The virus that causes COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that was first identified during an investigation into an outbreak in Wuhan, China and rapidly spread across the world to become the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus. As of 26 March 2020, there are 275 cases affected by COVID-19 announced by the Moroccan government, and it possible to limit the spread of this serious disease, with the cooperation of all the citizens in respect of the measures of containment and individual protection. Also, with the announce yesterday by the Moroccan government of the authorization of use of chloroquine in treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia, COVID-19 will be soon eradicated from Morocco and hopefully from all over the world.


COVID-19: Uncertainty of anaesthesia/ COVID-19: Incertidumbre de la anestesia


title: A Review of Cardiac Complications in Coronavirus Disease 2019

text: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has shown an association with acute myocardial injury, cardiomyopathy, and myocarditis. Individuals with myocardial involvement in association with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be at increased risk of developing severe illness. Cardiomyopathies are a heterogeneous group of diseases of the myocardium associated with mechanical and/or electrical dysfunction that usually exhibit inappropriate ventricular hypertrophy or dilation and are due to a variety of causes that frequently are genetic. It has been primarily divided into three subsets: genetic, mixed, and acquired cardiomyopathy. We anticipate that, because of the high inflammatory response, other cardiovascular complications may also occur in COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms. This review explores new information as it pertains to COVID-19 and cardiac complications.


State of “Emergency” for health but State of “Exception” for people: Guinea‐Bissau’s paradox in the battle against Covid‐19


title: COVID-19 containment in the Caribbean: the experience of Small Island Developing States

text: Background. Small island developing states (SIDS) have limited absolute resources for responding to national disasters, including health emergencies. Since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the Caribbean on 1st March 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been widely used to control the resulting COVID-19 outbreak. We document the variety of government measures introduced across the Caribbean and explore their impact on aspects of outbreak control. Methods. Drawing on publically available information, we present confirmed cases and confirmed deaths to describe the extent of the Caribbean outbreak. We document the range of outbreak containment measures implemented by national Governments, focussing on measures to control movement and gatherings. We explore the temporal association of containment measures with the start of the outbreak in each country, and with aggregated information on human movement, using smartphone positioning data. We include a set of comparator countries to provide an international context. Results. As of 25th May, the Caribbean reported 18,755 confirmed cases and 631 deaths. There have been broad similarities but also variation in the number, the type, the intensity, and particularly the timing of the NPIs introduced across the Caribbean. On average, Caribbean governments began controlling movement into countries 27 days before their first confirmed case and 23 days before comparator countries. Controls on movement within country were introduced 9 days after the first case and 36 days before comparators. Controls on gatherings were implemented 1 day before the first confirmed case and 30 days before comparators. Confirmed case growth rates and numbers of deaths have remained low across much the Caribbean. Stringent Caribbean curfews and stay-at-home orders coincided with large reductions in community mobility, regularly above 60%, and higher than most international comparator countries. Conclusion. Stringent controls to limit movement, and specifically the early timing of those controls has had an important impact on containing the spread of COVID-19 across much of the Caribbean. Very early controls to limit movement into countries may well be particularly effective for small island developing states. With much of the region economically reliant on international tourism, and with steps to open borders now being considered, it is critical that the region draws on a solid evidence-base to balance the competing demands of economics and public health.


title: Clinical trials on drug repositioning for COVID-19 treatment

text: The World Health Organization (WHO) was informed on December 2019 about a coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei province (China). Subsequently, on March 12, 2020, 125,048 cases and 4,614 deaths were reported. Coronavirus is an enveloped RNA virus, from the genus Betacoronavirus, that is distributed in birds, humans, and other mammals. WHO has named the novel coronavirus disease as COVID-19. More than 80 clinical trials have been launched to test coronavirus treatment, including some drug repurposing or repositioning for COVID-19. Hence, we performed a search in March 2020 of the clinicaltrials.gov database. The eligibility criteria for the retrieved studies were: contain a clinicaltrials.gov base identifier number; describe the number of participants and the period for the study; describe the participants’ clinical conditions; and utilize interventions with medicines already studied or approved for any other disease in patients infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV). It is essential to emphasize that this article only captured trials listed in the clinicaltrials.gov database. We identified 24 clinical trials, involving more than 20 medicines, such as human immunoglobulin, interferons, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, arbidol, remdesivir, favipiravir, lopinavir, ritonavir, oseltamivir, methylprednisolone, bevacizumab, and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM). Although drug repurposing has some limitations, repositioning clinical trials may represent an attractive strategy because they facilitate the discovery of new classes of medicines; they have lower costs and take less time to reach the market; and there are existing pharmaceutical supply chains for formulation and distribution.


title: Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

text: COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken. The results show that the global R_0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.49 (95% CI: 2.15 - 2.92). The United States, Germany, Italy and Spain have peak values over 100,000. According to dynamical model and cluster analysis, we category the globe into four type regional epicenters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 105,903, 127,283 and 152,539, respectively. The United States is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current control measures by Mar. 27, 2020, the peak value in the United States will reach 400,892. Above all, if the current control measures are maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,442,523 (95% CI: 1,052,577 - 8,981,440). We also estimated the diagnosis rate, recovery rate and infection degree of each country or region, and use clustering algorithm to retrieve countries or regions with similar epidemic characteristics. Different suggestions are proposed for countries or regions in different clusters.


title: Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in the U.S.

text: Background:The COVID-19 pandemic continues to adversely affect the U.S., which leads globally in total cases and deaths. As COVID-19 vaccines are under development, public health officials and policymakers need to create strategic vaccine-acceptance messaging to effectively control the pandemic and prevent thousands of additional deaths. Methods: Using an online platform, we surveyed the U.S. adult population in May 2020 to understand risk perceptions about the COVID-19 pandemic, acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine, and trust in sources of information. These factors were compared across basic demographics. Findings: Of the 672 participants surveyed, 450 (67%) said they would accept a COVID-19 vaccine if it is recommended for them. Males (72%), older adults ([≥]55 years; 78%), Asians (81%), and college and/or graduate degree holders (75%) were more likely to accept the vaccine. When comparing reported influenza vaccine uptake to reported acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine: 1) participants who did not complete high school had a very low influenza vaccine uptake (10%), while 60% of the same group said they would accept the COVID-19 vaccine; 2) unemployed participants reported lower influenza uptake and lower COVID-19 vaccine acceptance when compared to those employed or retired; and, 3) black Americans reported lower influenza vaccine uptake and lower COVID-19 vaccine acceptance than nearly all other racial groups. Lastly, we identified geographic differences with Department of Health and Human Services regions 2 (New York) and 5 (Chicago) reporting less than 50 percent COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. Interpretation: Although our study found a 67% acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine, there were noticeable demographic and geographical disparities in vaccine acceptance. Before a COVID-19 vaccine is introduced to the U.S., public health officials and policymakers must prioritize effective COVID-19 vaccine-acceptance messaging for all Americans, especially those who are most vulnerable.


title: An alternative workflow for molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2 - escape from the NA extraction kit-shortage

text: Abstract The World Health Organisation has declared a pandemic caused by the newly discovered SARS-CoV-2. Due to growing demand for reagents used for SARS-CoV-2 RNA extraction for subsequent molecular diagnostics, there is a worldwide risk of kit- and/or reagent-shortages for extraction. With a detection sensitivity of 97.4% (95% CI=86.2-99.9%), we describe a simple, fast, alternative workflow for molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2, where samples are simply heat-processed for 5 minutes at 98°C prior to the RT-qPCR reaction.


title: Prevalence and Risk Factors of Acute Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China

text: Background A novel coronavirus (SARA-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Within a few weeks, the disease caused by SARA-CoV-2, which is named COVID-19, has escalated into an unprecedented ongoing outbreak with frightening speed, becoming a global health emergency. This study aimed to exam the prevalence and risk factors of acute posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in Chinese people shortly after the massive outbreak of COVID-19. Method An online anonymous questionnaire survey was conducted in mainland China between 30 January and 3 February, 2020. The survey consisted of two self-administered questionnaires: one was designed to require personal information (gender, age, education background), current location, recent exposure history of Wuhan, the classification of population, and subjective sleep quality; the other was the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), which was to assess PTSS referring to the outbreak. Results A total of 2091 Chinese participated in the current study. The prevalence of PTSS among the public in mainland China 1 month after the COVID-19 outbreak was 4.6%. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that gender (p < 0.001), exposure history of Wuhan (p = 0.047), classification of population (p < 0.001), and subjective sleep quality (p < 0.001) could be regarded as predictor factors for PTSS. Conclusions The results showed that some Chinese showed acute PTSS during the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, comprehensive psychological intervention needs further implementation. Furthermore, females, people who having recent exposure history of Wuhan, those at high risk of infection or with poor sleep quality deserve special attention.


Forthcoming papers


Why such excess of mortality for COVID-19 in Spain?


title: Countrywide quarantine only mildly increased anxiety level during COVID-19 outbreak in China

text: In the recent outbreak of COVID-19, many countries have taken various kinds of quarantine measures to slow down the explosive spreading of COVID-19. Although these measures were proven to be successful in stopping the outbreak in China, the potential adverse effects of countrywide quarantine have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we performed an online survey to evaluate the psychological effects of quarantine in China using Zung Self-rating Anxiety Scale in February 2020 when the outbreak was nearly peaked in China. Along with the anxiety scores, limited personal information such as age, gender, region, education, occupation and specifically, the type and duration of quarantine were collected for analysis. For a total number of 992 valid questionnaires, clinical significance of anxiety symptoms was observed in 9.58% respondents according to clinical diagnostic standards in China. Statistical results showed population with different age, education level, health status and personnel category responded differently. Other characteristics such as gender, marital status, region, and acquaintance with suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 did not affect anxiety levels significantly. Respondents experienced different forms of quarantine showed different anxiety levels. Unexpectedly, longer durations of quarantine did not lead to significant increase of anxiety level. Our results suggest a rather mild negative psychological influence caused by the countrywide quarantine during COVID-19 outbreak in China and provided reference for other countries and regions to battle COVID-19.


title: Clinical features of COVID-19 patients in Abdul Wahab Sjahranie Hospital, Samarinda, Indonesia

text: Introduction Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Indonesia officially established the first COVID-19 confirmation case in early March 2020. East Kalimantan has been determined as a candidate for the new capital of Indonesia since 2019. This makes Abdul Wahab Sjahranie Hospital Samarinda as the largest hospital there has been designated as the main referral hospital for COVID-19 patients in East Kalimantan. We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics of these patients. Methods All patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 by RT-PCR were admitted to Abdul Wahab Sjahranie Hospital in Samarinda. We retrospectively collected and analyzed data on patients with standardized data collection from medical records. Results By May 8, 2020, 18 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Most of the infected patients were men (16 [88.9%] patients); less than half had underlying diseases (7 [38.9%] patients). Common symptoms at the onset of illness were cough (16 [88.9%] patients), sore throat (8 [44.4%] patients), and fever (8 [44.4%] patients). Laboratory findings of some patients on admission showed anemia. Levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were increased in 10 (55.6%) of 18 patients. On admission, abnormalities in chest x-ray images were detected in 6 (33.3%) patients who had pneumonia. The mean duration from the first hospital admission to discharge was 33.1 days. Discussion The majority of COVID-19 patients are male. COVID-19 comorbidities were found in several patients. The main clinical symptoms of COVID-19 in this study were cough, sore throat, and fever. The abnormal laboratory finding in COVID-19 patients is anemia, an increase in AST and ALT levels, and chest x-ray images of pneumonia. All patients are in mild condition. The average length of hospital admission patients to discharge is more than 30 days. Conclusion Although all patients are in mild condition, the inability of a local laboratory to check for positive confirmation of COVID-19 makes the admission period of the patient in the hospital very long. The availability of RT-PCR tests at Abdul Wahab Sjahranie Hospital Samarinda will greatly assist the further management of COVID-19 patients.


title: A Case Study in Line Balancing and Simulation

text: Abstract Assembly line balancing (ALB) allocates individual tasks to work stations while respecting the physical, safety, and quality constraints. Two-sided assembly lines are generally used in the production of medium or large-sized products (e.g. automotive, household appliance). We considered several characteristics including zoning constraints, the task to task relationships, tooling and station dependent constraints to offer the real-world environment. The most common two objectives for the ALB are minimizing the number of workers (type-1) and minimizing the cycle time (type-2). This article presents an integer programming formulation for both type-1 and type-2 ALB problems and metaheuristics to solve this complex problem. Even if ALB gives better results than the current line balance that our industry partner applied, it cannot be guaranteed that the amount of daily production will increase due to randomness in the line. We simulate the proposed line balances to provide a testing platform for line balancing results and to help identify inefficiencies and bottlenecks in the system.


title: How to evaluate the success of the COVID-19 measures implemented by the Norwegian government by analyzing changes in doubling time

text: Doubling Time (DT) is typically calculated for growth curves that show exponential growth, such as the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases day by day. DT represents the time it takes before the number of COVID-19 cases, in a certain country or area, doubles. Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, DT values are continually changing. These changes are influenced by the measures that are recommended by the health authorities and implemented by governments. After the governmental shutdowns of Nordic Countries that were announced around the 12th of March 2020, I followed the development of the DT in the region. Governments put in place measure never before experienced during peace time; home working, closed schools and kindergartens, travel bans and social distancing. But does it work? The initial set of results following the shutdown are encouraging, demonstrating a trend towards slower growth; however, this could be reversed if the measures that are in place now are abandoned too early. Premature optimism can be very costly. This paper explains how to monitor growth in real time and evaluate whether the implemented measures are successful.