1. An LED lighting device, wherein the LED lighting device is designed for supplying with a mains voltage by an AC power supply, including a rectifier device for producing a rectified AC voltage from the mains voltage, including an LED light unit, wherein the LED light unit includes a plurality of LEDs and a circuit arrangement, wherein the circuit arrangement is designed for switching the LEDs to different circuit states (I, II, III), wherein the LED light unit has different forward voltages in the different circuit states (I, II, III), including a control device for controlling the circuit arrangement, wherein the control device is designed to control the circuit arrangement in such a way that the forward voltage of the LED light unit is adjusted to the voltage profile of the rectified AC voltage, comprising a modelling device for modelling a modelled voltage profile, wherein the control device is designed to control the circuit states based on the modelled voltage profile, wherein the modelled voltage profile is modelled based on measured variables for describing the real voltage profile of the mains voltage.