1. A method comprising: under control of one or more computer systems configured with executable instructions, receiving data related to a delivery performance of an online advertisement; updating a model representing the delivery performance of the online advertisement based at least in part on the data and a previous state of at least one of a campaign control component of the model and a time-of-day component of the model; and predicting a future state of the delivery performance of the online advertisement based at least in part on the updated model.