1. A method comprising: a computer system receiving image data of a field comprising a plurality of pixels, precipitation data for the field indicating one or more amounts of rainfall over one or more regions of the field, elevation data indicating one or more elevations over the one or more regions of the field, and soil property data indicating one or more properties of soil found across the one or more regions of the field; the computer system using a classifier that has been trained to identify water pixels to estimate a probability of representing water for each pixel of the plurality of pixels; the computer system running a flow simulation over the field based on the precipitation data, the elevation data, and the soil property data to identify a set of pixels within the image data that are likely to have ponding water after the rainfall; the computer system determining a class for each pixel of the plurality of pixels indicating whether the pixel represents ponding water based on the probability of representing water for each pixel of the plurality of pixels and the set of pixels within the image data that are likely to have ponding water after the rainfall; the computer system generating an alert based on the determination of the class for each pixel of the plurality of pixels.