1. A method comprising: receiving, by a computer system, information relating to project metric data and an occurrence of events in a plurality of projects; determining, by the computer system, uncertainty data based on the received information, wherein the uncertainty data represents a probability distribution of at least one metric associated with an active project; receiving, by the computer system, input relating to a scenario to perform what-if analysis; and based on the input, performing, by the computer system, the what-if analysis to determine an estimated impact of a particular event specified in the input scenario on the active project and on the probability distribution of the at least one metric.