1. A method comprising: receiving ( 102 ), by a computer system, information relating to project metric data and the occurrence of events in a plurality of projects; determining ( 106 ), by the computer system, uncertainty data based on the received information, wherein the uncertainty data represents a probability distribution of at least one metric associated with the active project; receiving ( 108 ), by the computer system, input relating to a scenario to perform what-if analysis; and based on the input, performing ( 110 ), by the computer system, the what-if analysis to determine an estimated impact of a particular event specified in the input scenario on the active project and on the uncertainty data.