1. A method for transforming transactional data into a forecast and confidence interval for controlling a commerce system, comprising: moving goods between members of a commerce system; recording transaction data related to movement of goods between the members of the commerce system, the transaction data including price, product, time, and promotion; estimating model parameters based on the transactional data using a demand model to generate a forecast of demand for the goods based on a proposed price or promotion; determining a confidence interval of the certainty associated with the forecast of demand for the goods based on the proposed price or promotion; and providing the forecast of demand for the goods and confidence interval to a member of the commerce system to control the movement of goods in the commerce system based on the forecast of demand for the goods and confidence interval.