1. An evaluation method of evaluating optical characteristics of a projection optical system, by using a prediction formula for predicting a fluctuation amount of the optical characteristics relative to an exposure period of a substrate via the projection optical system, the method comprising: determining the prediction formula by using a dedicated pattern in which a plurality of marks are arranged in a matrix on an object plane of the projection optical system, wherein the determining includes selecting, based on information on an illuminated region on the object plane determined in accordance with a size of a shot region on the substrate, at least two marks from marks to be located in the illuminated region among the plurality of marks, and obtaining the prediction formula based on positions of images of the at least two marks formed on an image plane of the projection optical system.