El Nino ends as La Nina looms, promising better monsoon in India
La Nina is a meteorological condition recurring every three to seven years in which surface waters in central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean ...
monsoon: El Nino ends as La Nina looms, promising better monsoon in India - The Economic Times

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# El Nino ends as La Nina looms, promising better monsoon in India

![El Nino ends as La Nina looms, promising better monsoon in India](https://img.etimg.com/thumb/width-420,height-315,imgsize-202306,resizemode-75,msid-111021478/news/india/el-nino-ends-as-la-nina-looms-promising-better-monsoon-in-india/india-monsoon.jpg)AP

Representative image.

### Synopsis

El Nino has ended after nearly a year, with US weather agencies reporting its dissipation and a likely transition to La Nina in the next two months. This shift is expected to enhance monsoon rainfall in India during August and September. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives a 65% chance of La Nina developing between July and September, slightly delayed from earlier predictions but still potentially beneficial for the monsoon.

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Jun 15, 2024, 05:12:13 PM IST

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After dominating global weather for nearly a year, [El Nino](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/el-nino)'s reign has finally ended, [US weather agencies](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/us-weather-agencies) reported on Thursday. The update said the Pacific Ocean is likely to transition to [La Nina](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/la-nina) in around two months' time, which implies that conditions will generally favour good [monsoon](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/monsoon) rainfall in [India](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/india) in the second half of the season (Aug-Sept), as reported by TOI.

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The latest update from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives a 65% probability of La Nina developing in July-Sept period, a little later than what last month's forecast suggested, but still in time to potentially impact the monsoon. Last month's NOAA forecast had given nearly 50% probability of La Nina conditions developing in the June-Aug period, which has since dipped to around 40%.

This is largely in line with IMD's forecast of an above-normal monsoon in India during the four-month season at 106% of long period average, with increased probability of good rains in latter half.

"Latest US forecast is a good sign for the monsoon. Even if La Nina is declared around Aug, temperature anomalies that characterise the condition are already developing. The transition from neutral to La Nina during the monsoon season augurs well," said M Rajeevan, veteran meteorologist and former secretary of Union earth sciences ministry.

La Nina is a meteorological condition recurring every three to seven years in which surface waters in central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean cool to below-normal levels, with associated changes in wind patterns impacting weather across large parts of the globe. El Nino is the opposite condition, characterised by abnormal heating up of ocean waters. El Nino/La Nina is the single largest natural source of year-to-year variations in seasonal climate.

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While El Nino events generally lead to below-par monsoons in India, last year being an exception, La Nina usually aids good monsoon rains. The last El Nino developed around May 2023 and peaked in Dec-Jan as one of five strongest such events on record. NOAA said Thursday that conditions in the Pacific returned to 'neutral' last month, which meant that El Nino had dissipated.

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Meanwhile, monsoon's onset over India has so far been good - with all of south India & northeast, and most of Maharashtra covered - but the system has weakened and is likely to remain so for 7-10 days, experts say. Countrywide rainfall in June has been 12.2% below normal.

"With monsoon going into a hiatus, June may end with below-normal rainfall," said Rajeevan. Monsoon's weakening also dims hopes of rains arriving early in north India, which is currently reeling under an unprecedentedly long and severe heat spell.

_(With TOI inputs)_

### Read more news on

- [monsoon](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/monsoon)
- [El Nino](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/el-nino)
- [El Nino news](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/el-nino-news)
- [US weather agencies](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/us-weather-agencies)
- [La Nina](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/la-nina)
- [India](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/india)

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Thursday, 12 September, 2024](https://m.economictimes.com/print_edition)

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