Why global models went wrong with their La Niña predictions
La Niña (or 'The Little Girl' in Spanish) is a phase of what climatologists refer to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon ...
Why global models went wrong with their La Niña predictions — and what its delay means \| Explained News - The Indian Express

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4. Why global models went wrong with their La Niña predictions — and what its delay means

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# Why global models went wrong with their La Niña predictions — and what its delay means

## Almost all leading global agencies had predicted the onset of the highly influential climate phenomenon in July. Here is what the delay in La Niña’s onset mean, especially for India.

Written by [Anjali Marar](https://indianexpress.com/profile/author/anjali-marar/)

Bengaluru \| Updated: September 8, 2024 13:16 IST

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![La Nina Rain](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/LaNinaRain.jpg?w=640)La Nina is typically associated with enhanced rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. (Express File Photo)

All leading global agencies were significantly off the mark in their La Niña predictions this year.

India had pinned hopes on the influential climate phenomenon to drive enhanced rainfall during August-September. Now that a delay in **[La Niña’s onset is imminent](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climate/la-nina-el-nino-weather-impact-9343409/)**, what is the likely impact going to be in the upcoming months? And why did global weather models get their predictions wrong?

![](https://data.indianexpress.com/election2019/track_1x1.jpg)

## **First, what is La Niña?**

La Niña (or ‘The Little Girl’ in Spanish) is a phase of what climatologists refer to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon that is a key driver of global natural climate variability. ENSO is characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the tropical Pacific Ocean due to atmospheric fluctuations overhead. These changes alter and interfere with the global atmospheric circulation, and influence weather worldwide.

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Occurring in irregular cycles of anywhere between two to seven years, ENSO has three phases — warm (El Niño or ‘The Little Boy’ in Spanish), cool (La Niña), and neutral.

During the neutral phase, the eastern Pacific (off the northwestern coast of South America) is cooler than the western Pacific (around Philippines and Indonesia). This is because prevailing trade winds — caused by Earth’s rotation, between 30 degrees north and south of the equator — move east to west, sweeping warmer surface water along with them. The relatively cool waters from below rise to the surface to replace the displaced water.

[![Festive offer](/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Chai-4_BN_970x150.jpg)](https://indianexpress.com/subscribe/all-access/?utm_source=Homepagebanner&utm_medium=Banner&utm_campaign=Chaicreative "Festive offer")![Phases of ENSO.](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/ENSOGraphic.jpg) Phases of ENSO.

These wind systems weaken in the El Niño phase, leading to lesser displacement of warmer waters off the American coasts. Consequently, the eastern Pacific becomes warmer than usual. The opposite happens in the La Niña phase i.e. trade winds become stronger than usual and push larger quantities of water to the western Pacific.

In India, El Niño is associated with suppressed rainfall during the monsoon season, while La Niña is known to help monsoon activity. The previous El Niño event occurred between June 2023 and May 2024. Prior to that, one of the longest recorded La Niña episodes lasted from 2020 to 2023.

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Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated the impact of both El Niño and La Niña-related hazards, including high temperatures, heavy precipitation and droughts

## **What did global weather models predict this year?**

One of the strongest El Niño events of all time ended this June, following which ENSO entered the neutral phase. Initial projections made by multiple global weather models suggested that the onset of La Niña conditions would occur around July. But by mid-July, it was clear that La Niña would be delayed.

Also Read \| [What is INCOIS’s new product to forecast El Niño and La Niña conditions?](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-sci-tech/incois-new-product-forecast-enso-9394168/)

At the time, the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had said that the transition from neutral to positive sea surface temperature, suggesting ENSO neutral giving way for La Niña, would take place between August and October. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia, too, maintained the La Niña ‘watch’ stage in July, predicting the emergence of cooler-than-usual sea surface conditions in the latter half of this year.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had, since the first stage Long Range Forecast issued in mid-April, maintained that La Niña conditions would emerge during the later half of the June – September monsoon season. And most importantly, La Niña could enhance rainfall in the months of August and September. This year’s seasonal prediction was dependent on the emergence of La Niña, resulting in ‘above’ normal rainfall in the final two monsoon months (more on that later).

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## **Why were initial predictions off the mark?**

There is no single reason behind the predictions being off the mark. Moreover, while almost all predictions got the onset timing wrong, they were largely accurate about the severity of the upcoming La Niña, expected to be fairly weak this time around.

In fact, a primary reason cited by weather modellers and meteorologists for the error in predicting La Niña’s onset is its severity. Weather models are likely to better pick up signals in cases of strong La Niña (or El Niño) phases, rather than weak ones.

Moreover, there are other factors that impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean. In particular, these include the inter-seasonal variability in the atmosphere, wind and pressure, directly linked to the movement of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward moving band of rain-bearing winds and clouds. The interplay of different weather systems makes predictions harder.

Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions continue to prevail in the Pacific Ocean, as per NOAA. The latest predictions suggest that the earliest signs of the onset of La Niña will likely emerge by the end of September or in early October. La Niña would peak in November, and is expected to last throughout the winter in the northern hemisphere.

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## **How has the delay in La Niña’s onset impacted India’s monsoon?**

La Niña is known to enhance the rainfall during the southwest monsoon, India’s chief rainy season which lasts from June to September. Since the monsoon has already reached its fag end, and La Niña conditions are yet to emerge in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the climatic phenomenon will play no direct role in the country’s rainfall at the moment.

But, there are many other factors which affect the rainfall during the monsoon season, and a delayed La Niña onset does not definitely mean an adverse monsoon performance. This has largely been the case so far.

Also Read \| [Emergence of La Niña delayed: Will this affect Indian monsoon?](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climate/la-nina-india-monsoon-9463305/)

In August, India as a whole recorded nearly 16 per cent surplus rainfall. The forecast for September too is promising, with the IMD predicting a 109 per cent ‘above’ normal rainfall over most geographical areas (where 100 denotes normal rainfall).

Overall in this season, starting from June, India has received rainfall that is 8 per cent more than normal. But, as is expected, there are wide variations in precipitation at the regional level. Almost every state in the east and the northeastern region has seen deficient rainfall, and so have many states in the north and the northwest. Central and south India have, however, received more than normal rainfall till now.

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## **What does the La Niña outlook look like in the coming months?**

Supposing La Niña’s onset begins by late September-October, it could still influence India’s weather later in the year.

Notably, it could influence rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October – December). Also known as the winter monsoon, this is limited to [Tamil Nadu](https://indianexpress.com/article/when-is/tamil-nadu-lok-sabha-elections-2024-schedule-phase-seats-candidates-results-and-all-you-need-to-know-about-tamil-nadu-general-elections-9161414/), coastal [Andhra Pradesh](https://indianexpress.com/article/when-is/andhra-pradesh-lok-sabha-elections-2024-schedule-phase-seats-candidates-results-and-all-you-need-to-know-about-andhra-pradesh-general-elections-9162519/), Rayalaseema, southern interior [Karnataka](https://indianexpress.com/article/when-is/karnataka-lok-sabha-elections-2024-schedule-phase-seats-candidates-results-and-all-you-need-to-know-about-karnataka-general-elections-9162484/) and Kerala. Climatologically, La Niña does not favour northeast monsoon rainfall. That said, there have been exceptions in the past. Moreover, since all these meteorological subdivisions have received either normal or surplus rainfall during the ongoing southwest monsoon, the possibility of lower rainfall later in the year should not be a worry at present.

The north Indian Ocean basin — which covers the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea — sees cyclone development during March to May, and October to December, with peak activity during May and November. During La Niña years, climatologically there are high chances of frequent cyclogenesis, with storms having above-average intensity, and longer-than-average life. This will be something that Met officials and administrators will be watching out for.

Lastly, La Niña years in the past have typically seen harsher, colder winters.

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_**Anjali Marar is a science communicator at Raman Research Institute.**_

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[![Top five viral videos of the day (Image source:@AJEnglish/X, @travelswithsyl/Instagram)](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/Viral-buzz-bin.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/trending-in-india/vietnam-bridge-collapse-singapore-woman-scammed-in-delhi-top-5-viral-videos-today-9560262/ "Vietnam bridge collapse, Singapore woman scammed in Delhi and more: top 5 viral videos today")

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[![Shaikha Mahra is one of the 26 children of the Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum (Image source: @hhshmahra/Instagram)](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/Dubai-princess.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/trending-globally/dubai-princess-who-split-with-husband-on-instagram-launches-perfume-brand-divorce-9560066/ "Dubai princess, who split with husband on Instagram, launches perfume brand ‘Divorce’")

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[![Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test day 2 called off](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/AFG-NZ-3.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/afghanistan-vs-new-zealand-test-muddy-outfield-day-2-called-off-9560616/ "Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test: Muddy outfield forces early call-off on Day 2 despite sunny conditions")

[Sports](https://indianexpress.com/section/sports/) [Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test: Muddy outfield forces early call-off on Day 2 despite sunny conditions](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/afghanistan-vs-new-zealand-test-muddy-outfield-day-2-called-off-9560616/)

[![Simran Sharma Abhay singh guide Paralympics](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/Simran-2.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/how-simran-sharma-paired-with-abhay-singh-paralympics-9560822/ "‘It’s God-made connection’ How visually-impaired Simran Sharma paired with her guide Abhay Singh to win bronze medal in 200m at Paralympics")

[Sports](https://indianexpress.com/section/sports/) [‘It’s God-made connection’ How visually-impaired Simran Sharma paired with her guide Abhay Singh to win bronze medal in 200m at Paralympics](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/how-simran-sharma-paired-with-abhay-singh-paralympics-9560822/)

[![Jawhar Sircar writes: The monsoon thunder in Bengal, making way for women to reclaim their space](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/A-protest-in-Kolkata-on-Tuesday.-Express-1.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/jawhar-sircar-writes-the-monsoon-thunder-in-bengal-making-way-for-women-to-reclaim-their-space-9561122/ "The monsoon thunder in Bengal, making way for women to reclaim their space")

[Opinion](https://indianexpress.com/section/opinion/) [The monsoon thunder in Bengal, making way for women to reclaim their space](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/jawhar-sircar-writes-the-monsoon-thunder-in-bengal-making-way-for-women-to-reclaim-their-space-9561122/)

[![George W. Bush, left, and Al Gore during a town hall debate in St. Louis, Oct. 17, 2000.](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/Presidentia-debate.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/us-elections-influential-debates-kamala-trump-9559521/ "5 most influential US presidential debates, how they impacted elections")

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[![sara ali khan, Sara Ali Khan, lehenga, Indian fashion, vintage fashion, brocade, sequin, holographic, designer outfit, fashion trends, celebrity style, couture, luxury fashion, haute couture, designer wear, fashion designer, Ami Patel, Varanasi, handwoven textiles, traditional textiles, sustainable fashion, ethical fashion, heritage fashion, cultural preservation, fashion inspiration, style icon, fashion trends, fashion week, fashion magazine, fashion blog, fashion influencer,](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/sara-ali-khan.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/fashion/sara-ali-khan-lehenga-vintage-brocade-saris-over-50-years-old-9558036/ "Inside the making of Sara Ali Khan's lehenga set created with 50-year-old brocade saris")

[Lifestyle](https://indianexpress.com/section/lifestyle/) [Inside the making of Sara Ali Khan's lehenga set created with 50-year-old brocade saris](https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/fashion/sara-ali-khan-lehenga-vintage-brocade-saris-over-50-years-old-9558036/)

[![Sonos Ace](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/sonos-ace-review.jpg?w=300)](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-reviews/sonos-ace-headphone-review-9560180/ "I travelled to Berlin with Sonos Ace, and this is what I learned wearing these elite headphones")

[Technology](https://indianexpress.com/section/technology/) [I travelled to Berlin with Sonos Ace, and this is what I learned wearing these elite headphones](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-reviews/sonos-ace-headphone-review-9560180/)

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###### Must Read

[![Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test day 2 called off](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/AFG-NZ-3.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/afghanistan-vs-new-zealand-test-muddy-outfield-day-2-called-off-9560616/ "Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test: Muddy outfield forces early call-off on Day 2 despite sunny conditions")

[Sports](https://indianexpress.com/section/sports/) [Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test: Muddy outfield forces early call-off on Day 2 despite sunny conditions](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/afghanistan-vs-new-zealand-test-muddy-outfield-day-2-called-off-9560616/)

[![Simran Sharma Abhay singh guide Paralympics](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/Simran-2.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/how-simran-sharma-paired-with-abhay-singh-paralympics-9560822/ "‘It’s God-made connection’ How visually-impaired Simran Sharma paired with her guide Abhay Singh to win bronze medal in 200m at Paralympics")

[Sports](https://indianexpress.com/section/sports/) [‘It’s God-made connection’ How visually-impaired Simran Sharma paired with her guide Abhay Singh to win bronze medal in 200m at Paralympics](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/how-simran-sharma-paired-with-abhay-singh-paralympics-9560822/)

[![Not a single ball has been bowled in the one-off Test between Afghanistan and New Zealand at the Greater Noida Sports Complex Stadium, which is also known as the Shaheed Vijay Singh Pathik Sports Complex. (PHOTO: Pratyush Raj)](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/New-Project-51.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/afghanistan-stadiums-better-facilities-controversy-over-state-of-greater-noida-sports-complex-stadium-9559980/ "'Afghanistan stadiums have better facilities than this one': Controversy over state of Greater Noida Sports Complex Stadium")

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[![Sonos Ace](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/sonos-ace-review.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-reviews/sonos-ace-headphone-review-9560180/ "I travelled to Berlin with Sonos Ace, and this is what I learned wearing these elite headphones")

[Technology](https://indianexpress.com/section/technology/) [I travelled to Berlin with Sonos Ace, and this is what I learned wearing these elite headphones](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-reviews/sonos-ace-headphone-review-9560180/)

[![iPhone 16](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/apple-iphone-16.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/mobile-tabs/apple-iphone-16-series-price-india-us-dubai-thailand-vietnam-9559824/ "Apple iPhone 16 series: Price in India compared to the US, Dubai, Vietnam and other regions")

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[Technology](https://indianexpress.com/section/technology/) [Roblox looks to boost creation of paid games, announces bigger revenue share for developers](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/gaming/roblox-paid-games-developers-revenue-share-bigger-9559905/)

[![sara ali khan, Sara Ali Khan, lehenga, Indian fashion, vintage fashion, brocade, sequin, holographic, designer outfit, fashion trends, celebrity style, couture, luxury fashion, haute couture, designer wear, fashion designer, Ami Patel, Varanasi, handwoven textiles, traditional textiles, sustainable fashion, ethical fashion, heritage fashion, cultural preservation, fashion inspiration, style icon, fashion trends, fashion week, fashion magazine, fashion blog, fashion influencer,](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/sara-ali-khan.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/fashion/sara-ali-khan-lehenga-vintage-brocade-saris-over-50-years-old-9558036/ "Inside the making of Sara Ali Khan's lehenga set created with 50-year-old brocade saris")

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###### EXPRESS OPINION

[![Jawhar Sircar writes: The monsoon thunder in Bengal, making way for women to reclaim their space](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/A-protest-in-Kolkata-on-Tuesday.-Express-1.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/jawhar-sircar-writes-the-monsoon-thunder-in-bengal-making-way-for-women-to-reclaim-their-space-9561122/ "The monsoon thunder in Bengal, making way for women to reclaim their space")

[Opinion](https://indianexpress.com/section/opinion/) [The monsoon thunder in Bengal, making way for women to reclaim their space](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/jawhar-sircar-writes-the-monsoon-thunder-in-bengal-making-way-for-women-to-reclaim-their-space-9561122/)

[![C Raja Mohan writes: India’s role in peacemaking in Ukraine](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/oped-illustration-6.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/c-raja-mohan-writes-indias-role-in-peacemaking-in-ukraine-9561126/ "India’s role in peacemaking in Ukraine")

[Opinion](https://indianexpress.com/section/opinion/) [India’s role in peacemaking in Ukraine](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/c-raja-mohan-writes-indias-role-in-peacemaking-in-ukraine-9561126/)

[![IIT-Madras’s campus in East Africa showcases its enhanced ambition, responsibility](https://images.indianexpress.com/2024/09/IIT-madrs.jpg?resize=150,83)](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/iit-madrass-zanzibar-campus-indias-best-for-africa-9561118/ "IIT-Madras's Zanzibar campus: India's best for Africa")

[Opinion](https://indianexpress.com/section/opinion/) [IIT-Madras's Zanzibar campus: India's best for Africa](https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/iit-madrass-zanzibar-campus-indias-best-for-africa-9561118/)

###### [Sep 11: Latest News](/latest-news/)

- 01
[Shah Rukh Khan lauds Abhishek Banerjee for Stree 2, asks Karan Johar to focus on filmmaking rather than hosting: ‘I have been wanting to call you’](https://indianexpress.com/article/entertainment/bollywood/iifa-2024-press-conference-shah-rukh-khan-lauds-abhishek-banerjee-for-stree-2-9560884/)

- 02
[BMC to launch structural repair works on flyovers along eastern, western expressways](https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/bmc-to-launch-structural-repair-works-on-flyovers-along-eastern-western-expressways-9560883/)

- 03
[French man on trial for recruiting strangers to rape his drugged wife hospitalised](https://indianexpress.com/article/world/french-man-on-trial-for-recruiting-strangers-to-rape-his-drugged-wife-hospitalised-9560823/)

- 04
[NIA takes custody of gold smuggling ring accused brought back from UAE](https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/jaipur/nia-takes-custody-of-gold-smuggling-ring-accused-brought-back-from-uae-9560878/)

- 05
[IAF veteran loses Rs 3.64 lakh in cyber fraud on pretext of gas bill payment in Pune](https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/iaf-veteran-loses-rs-3-64-lakh-in-cyber-fraud-on-pretext-of-gas-bill-payment-9560853/)


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