[거짓] 지구온난화는 나쁘지 않다 - Skeptical Science
지구온난화가 농업, 보건 그리고 환경에 미치는 부정적인 영향은 어떠한 긍정적인 영향도 훨씬 능가한다. 기후 변화에 의해 초래되는 악화의 속도는 온도 상승 속도 ...
\[거짓\] 지구온난화는 나쁘지 않다

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# \[거짓\] 지구온난화는 나쁘지 않다

## 과학의 입장...

지구온난화가 농업, 보건 그리고 환경에 미치는 부정적인 영향은 어떠한 긍정적인 영향도 훨씬 능가한다. 기후 변화에 의해 초래되는 악화의 속도는 온도 상승 속도보다 빠르다. 예컨대, 2도의 상승이 약간의 파괴를 초래한다면, 4도의 상승은 잠재적인 파탄을 가져오는 결과를 가져올 것이다.

## 회의론의 주장...

지구 온난화 그거 나쁘지 않아,

“이천여년간의 기록에 따르면 온난한 시기가 사람들에게 더 좋았다는 걸 알 수 있어. 강력한 폭풍, 때 아닌 서리, 만연한 기근과 전염병들을 일으키는 것은 바로 냉혹하고 불안정한 암흑기와 소빙하기야” (데니스 에이버리)

이것을 받아들이기 위한 최고의 방법은 기후 온난화의 장점들과 단점들을 비교해보는 것이다. (주의 – 아래의 표는 충분치 않다. 아래 코멘트에서 추가 논문을 읽기를 권장한다.)

장점

단점

농업

고위도 지역에서 농업 발전 ( [Mendelsohn 2006](http://nersp.nerdc.ufl.edu/%7Evecy/LitSurvey/Mendelsohn.06.pdf))

그린랜드의 농작물의 성장 시기 연장 ( [Nyegaard 2007](http://www.wwf.dk/dk/Service/Bibliotek/Natur+i+Gr%C3%B8nland/Rapporter+mv./climate_change_and_the_greenland_so_1.pdf))

광귤 나무의 생산성 증대 ( [Kimball 2007](http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/120825863/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0))

식수 공급 감소, 화재 발생 증가, 생태계 변화 및 사막화 진행 ( [Solomon 2009](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf+html))

야간 기온의 증가로 인한 쌀생산량 감소 ( [Peng 2004](http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.abstract), [Tao 2008](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V8W-4R2Y42W-1&_user=10&_coverDate=01%2F07%2F2008&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1178072838&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=31de28d5489f42f6a5e7b7bca606d067))

더 높은 기온과 더 이른 봄 해빙으로 인해 미국 서부 지역의 화재 발생 증가 ( [Westerling 2006](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/313/5789/940.pdf))

관목이 초지로 침식하여 방목장을 가축들이 뜯어먹기에 적합하지 않게 바꿈 ( [Morgan 2007](http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0703427104v1))

콜로라도 강 유역의 물 공급 감소 ( [McCabe 2007](http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL031764.shtml))

Murra-Darling 유역의 물 공급 감소. ( [Cai 2008](http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL033390.shtml))

건강

높은 기온으로 인해 겨울철 동사 감소 ( [HPA 2007](http://www.hpa.org.uk/hpr/archives/2007/hpr1907.pdf))

폭염에 의한 사망 증가 5.74% 폭염가 한파보다 1.59% 증가 ( [Medina-Ramon 2007](http://oem.bmj.com/content/64/12/827.short))

인간을 비롯한 포유류에 열압박 증가 ( [Sherwood 2010](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/04/26/0913352107.abstract?sid=511111d6-a7df-4e55-843d-a751fb821c5a))

말라리아나 뎅기열과 같은 모기 매개 전염병 증가 ( [Epstein 1998](http://www.decvar.org/documents/epstein.pdf))

알러지성 꽃가루의 증가로 알러지 증세 증가 ( [Rogers 2006](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1480488/))

북극 해빙

얼음이 없어 북서 항로가 태평양과 대서양을 잇는 지름길이 됨 ( [Kerr 2002](http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/%7Ewsoon/MitchTaylor08-d/Stroeveetal08-ArcticIceExtent2007.pdf), [Stroeve 2008](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/297/5586/1490))

50년 내에 북극곰 개체수가 2/3만큼 줄어듦 ( [Amstrup 2007](http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar_bears/docs/USGS_PolarBear_Amstrup_Forecast_lowres.pdf))

잔 얼음, 위험한 부빙, 더 움직이는 빙하에 의한 선박 운행 위험 증가 ( [IICWG 2009](http://nsidc.org/noaa/iicwg/IICWG_2009/IICWG_X_NEWS_RELEASE-2009-10-16.pdf))

북극의 연못이 사라져 생태계에 부차적인 손상을 줌 ( [Smol 2007](http://www.pnas.org/content/104/30/12395.abstract))

-온난화는 북극지역에서 메테인을 방출시켜 온실효과를 가중시킨다. 다음을 보라

북극 호수가 녹으면 메테인 거품이 생긴다. ( [Walter 2007](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/318/5850/633))

동시베리아-북극 대륙붕 해저단층에서의 메테인 누출 ( [Shakhova 2008](http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf))

West Spitsbergen 해저대륙 주변부를 따라 메테인 가스가 방출됨. ( [Westbrook 2009](http://sprint.clivar.org/soes/staff/ejr/Rohling-papers/2009-Westbrook%20et%20al%20JR211%20plumes%20GRL.pdf))

환경

북위도 지역에서 초목활동의 증가 ( [Zhou 2001](http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2000JD000115.shtml))

턱끝펭귄과 젠투펭귄의 증가 ( [Ducklow 2006](http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/362/1477/67.full))

북태평양 아열대 환류에서 플랑크톤 생물량 증가(ENSO/PDO가 주요 영향일 것이다.) ( [Corno 2006](http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JC003730.shtml))

최근 숲 지역의 증가 ( [McMahon 2010](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/02/0912376107))

더 큰 마못 ( [Ozgul 2010](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v466/n7305/abs/nature09210.html))

북극 툰드라 식물 번식의 증가 ( [Klady 2010](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02319.x/abstract))

건조해짐에 따라 밀림이 이산화탄소를 배출 ( [Saleska 2009](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1146663))

유럽 거머리 멸종 ( [Kutschera 2007](http://www.dnabarcodes.org/publications/display/458))

Adélie 펭귄 개체수 감소 ( [Ducklow 2006](http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/362/1477/67.full))

연어, 스트림 무척추동물, 어류를 비롯한 뉴질랜드 해양종 혼란 ( [Ryan 2007](http://www.ryanphotographic.com/Ryan_&_Ryan_2006_pp43-57.pdf))

바다에 산소결핍지역이 늘어남 ( [Stramma 2008](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;320/5876/655?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=Lothar+Stramma+ocean&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT), [Shaffer 2009](http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo420.html))

미국 서부 숲의 건강한 나무 사망률 증가 ( [Pennisi 2009](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/323/5913/447))

더 심각하고 광범위한 초목 사망 ( [Breshears 2009](http://www.pnas.org/content/102/42/15144.full?ck=nck))

소나무 좀의 발생에 의한 소나무 사망 증가 ( [Kurz 2008](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7190/full/nature06777.html), [Bentz 2010](http://caliber.ucpress.net/doi/abs/10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6))

더운 물에 의한 백화와 질병에 의한 산호초 멸종위험 증가 ( [Veron 2009](http://www.icriforum.org/sites/default/files/Veron%20et%20al%20%20Coral%20reef%20crisis%20CO2%20MPB%202009.pdf), [Carpenter 2008](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/321/5888/560.pdf))

도마뱀 개체수 감소 ( [Sinervo 2010](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/328/5980/894))

식물성 플라크톤의 전지구적 감소 ( [Boyce 2010](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v466/n7306/abs/nature09268.html))

총 1차 생산량(식물에 의해 흡수되는 탄소양) 감소 ( [Zhao 2010](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/329/5994/940))

해양 산성화

**주의 :** 이것은 기온 상승 때문이 아니라 해양이 더 많은 이산화탄소를 흡수하기때문에 발생한다. ( [Dore 2009](http://www.pnas.org/content/106/30/12235.full.pdf)).

해양의 이산화탄소 흡수는 지구온난화 속도를 늦춘다. ( [Orr 2005](http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/%7Ejomce/acidification/paper/Orr_OnlineNature04095.pdf))

해양 생태계에 치명적인 나쁜 영향을 준다. ( [Orr 2005](http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/%7Ejomce/acidification/paper/Orr_OnlineNature04095.pdf), [Fabry 2008](http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/65/3/414), [Kroeker 2010](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01518.x/pdf))

플랑크톤 성장을 저해하여, 탄소 사슬을 교란 ( [Turley 2005](http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/FC3/81/ExeterpaperProofsTurelyetal.pdf))

성게의 사망률 증가 ( [Miles 2007](http://www.eur-oceans.eu/WP9/Factsheets/FS7/papers/Miles%20et%20al%202007.pdf))

어류 개체수 위협 ( [Munday 2010](http://www.pnas.org/content/107/29/12930))

빙산 녹음

빙산에서 물을 공급받는 적어도 6000만의 사람에게 심각한 결과를 초래 ( [Barnett 2005](http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/pdffiles/barnett_warmsnow.pdf), [Immerzeel 2010](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/328/5984/1382))

해수면 상승에 기여 ( [Pfeffer 2008](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;321/5894/1340), [Vermeer 2009](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0907765106.full.pdf+html))

경제

대구 어획량 증가로 그린랜드의 경제 수준 향상 ( [Nyegaard 2007](http://www.wwf.dk/dk/Service/Bibliotek/Natur+i+Gr%C3%B8nland/Rapporter+mv./climate_change_and_the_greenland_so_1.pdf))

가난한, 저위도 국가에 경제적 타격 ( [Mendelsohn 2006](http://nersp.nerdc.ufl.edu/%7Evecy/LitSurvey/Mendelsohn.06.pdf))

공적 인프라에서 수십억 달러 손실 발생 ( [Larsen 2007](http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/JuneICICLE.pdf))

뉴멕시코에 물 공급 감소 ( [Hurd 2008](http://agecon.nmsu.edu/bhurd/hurdhome/Hurd%20Pubs/Hurd%20and%20Coonrod%20-%20TR45.pdf))

아프리칸 내전을 비롯한 갈등 조장 ( [Burke 2009](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/11/20/0907998106.abstract))

Tanganyika 호수에서 전례없는 더위로 인해 1차 생산량 감소. ( [Tierney 2010](http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo865.html))

해수면 상승

수억명의 사람들이 이번 세기안에 살 곳을 잃음 ( [Dasgupta 2009](http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166322&entityID=000016406_20070209161430))

나이지리아 해안 침식 ( [Okude 2006](http://idosi.org/wasj/wasj1%281%29/10.pdf))

롭 페인팅이 위 중급 반론을 작성함.

**지구온난화의 영향**

2007년에 발간된 네번째 IPCC 평가보고서에 요약된 기온 상승에 따른 영향은 여기에서 찾을 수 있으며, 아래 그림1에 도식으로 주어져 있다. 표기된 기온 상승은 1980~1990년의 평균 기온 (19세기 후반보다 최대 0.6도 정도 높다) 에 대한 증가분이다.

![fig spm.2](http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/fig/figure-spm-2-l.png)

_그림 1: 21세기의 각기 다른 지구평균기온 증가량에 연관된 기후변화(와 해수면, 대기 중 이산화탄소)로 예상되는 전지구적 영향의 예시 검은 선은 영향을 연관짓고, 점선 화살표는 기온 상승에 따라 계속되는 영향을 나타낸다. 텍스트의 좌측이 특정 영향의 대략적인 발생을 나타내도록 목록이 배치되었다. 수분 부족과 침수의 정량적인 목록은 SRES 시나리오의 범위에 걸쳐 예상된 조건에 따른 기후변화의 추가적인 영향을 묘사한다. 이 추정에 기후변화에 대한 적응은 적용되지 않았다. 모든 서술에 대한 신뢰 수준은 높다. IPCC_ _AR4__WGII_ _[Figure SPM.2](http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/figure-spm-2.html)._

기온 상승이 2도에 가까이 가면, 수억 명의 사람들이 수분 부족에 시달릴 것이며, 중위도 지역은 가뭄에 더 시달리게 되고, 산호 백화, 홍수와 폭풍우에 의한 해안 피해가 확대되며, 더 뜨겁고 잦은 무더위, 홍수, 가뭄에 의해 사상자 증가하는 등의 부정적인 영향이 있을 것이다.  그러나 이것들 대부분은 적응하는데 비용이 발생하겠지만 재앙까지는 아니다.

그러나 2도를 넘게 되면, 상기된 문제들이 더욱 심각해질 뿐만 아니라, 새로운 문제가 나타난다. 대부분의 산호초가 백화되고, 19세기 후반에 비해 기온이 3도 더 오르면 산호초가 절멸한 것으로 예상된다. 최대 30%의 생물이 멸종할 위험에 처해지고 만약 4도가 넘으면 그 수치는 40%로 올라가, 6번째 대멸종으로 이어질 수도 있다. 기온이 약 2.5도 상승한다면, 수백만명의 사람들이 해안 침수로 고통받을 것이고, 수많은 건강상의 악영향을 끼칠 것으로 예상된다.

작성: dana1981

번역: 조기혁

Translation by Freethinkers, hyejung. View [original English version](global-warming-positives-negatives.htm).

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