미중 무역분쟁의 장기화와 거시적 영향 - K-Developedia
미중 무역분쟁은 2년여 기간 동안 양측이 협상과 결렬을 반복하는 지난한 과정을 이어가고 있다. 본 연구는 최근 미국의 대중국 환율조작국 지정으로 인한 환율변동성 ...
미중 무역분쟁의 장기화와 거시적 영향

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# 미중 무역분쟁의 장기화와 거시적 영향

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Resources Content Information Item TableTitle 미중 무역분쟁의 장기화와 거시적 영향Publisher


세종 : 산업연구원



Publication Date2019
\- 10
Material Type

Report













CountryUnited States

ChinaHolding산업연구원Language


Korean



License[![저작자표시-비영리-변경금지](/assets/images/sub/ccl5.png)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Series TitleKIET 산업경제

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#### Abstract

미중 무역분쟁은 2년여 기간 동안 양측이 협상과 결렬을 반복하는 지난한 과정을 이어가고 있다. 본 연구는 최근 미국의 대중국 환율조작국 지정으로 인한 환율변동성의 확대 의미를 살펴보고, 무역분쟁 장기화에 따른 거시경제 파급효과를 분석한 ADB의 시나리오 모형을 활용하여 한국 경제에 미치는 영향을 거시지표(GDP, 수출, 고용)를 중심으로 추정하였다. 시나리오 분석결과 무역전환 효과가 커질수록 무역분쟁이 수출에 미치는 부정적인 영향을 일정부분 상쇄하는 기회요인으로 작용할 수 있음을 보여준다. 무역전환효과가 없으면 GDP가 0.20% 감소하고 수출은 0.45% 감소하지만, 무역전환효과가 10% 수준으로 높아지면 GDP 감소폭은 0.09%로 줄어들고 수출도 0.07% 감소하는데 그친다. 미중 무역분쟁의 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 국제가치사슬에 깊이 편입된 우리 수출구조에서 경쟁력을 가진 고부가가치 부분과 국제가치사슬을 활용할 부분을 정확히 판단하고 육성하는 종합적인 전략이 필요하다.

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