Macroeconomic Forecast

Real GDP increased by 0.4% QoQ in the third quarter of 2014 and a moderate recovery of economic activity therefore continued. We estimate that GDP increased by 2.4% last year and expect the economy to grow by 2.7% this year. In 2016, real GDP growth could slow down marginally to 2.5%.

The 37th Colloquium took place in April 2014. Its results are based on the forecasts of 17 institutions (MoF, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, CNB, CERGE-EI, Citibank, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Generali PPF Asset Management, Czech Chamber of Commerce, IES FSV UK, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Next Finance, Patria Finance, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank Czech Republic & Slovakia). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (Winter 2014 European Economic Forecast), the IMF (April 2014 World Economic Outlook) and the OECD (OECD Economic Surveys: Czech Republic 2014) have been added.

According to the CZSO’s current data, real GDP decreased by 0.9% in the whole of 2013. The surprisingly strong QoQ growth of 1.8% in Q4 2013 was largely a product of one-off factors (stockpiling cigarette tax stamps as a consequence of an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes as of 1 January 2014).

The 36th Colloquium took place in November 2013. Its results are based on the forecasts of 17 institutions (MoF, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, CNB, CERGE-EI, Citibank, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Generali PPF Asset Management, Czech Chamber of Commerce, IES FSV UK, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Patria Finance, Raiffeisenbank, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (Autumn 2013 European Economic Forecast), the IMF (October 2013 World Economic Outlook) and the OECD (November 2013 Economic Outlook) have been added.

Real GDP, which showed a surprisingly marked QoQ decline of 1.3% in Q1 2013, increased by 0.6% QoQ in Q2 2013. The economy technically emerged from the 18-month recession; however, GDP was 1.3% lower than in Q2 2012.