A look at each horse in the 2019 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, listed in post position order. (The number next to the horse’s name denotes their program number.) 1. WAR OF WILL Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Record: 8-3-1-1 Last 3: 9-1-1 Post: 1 Odds: 15-1 Subscribe to Sports Now newsletter By clicking Sign up, you agree to our privacy policy. Was No. 1 on some Derby lists before flopping in the Louisiana Derby, finishing ninth as the 4-5 favorite after stumbling badly when the ground broke out from under him a few strides out of the gate. Falls short on speed figures, and never faced the 3-year-old heavyweights. Post 1 is winless since 1986, and he won’t end that drought. 2. TAX Trainer: Danny Gargan Jockey: Junior Alvarado Record: 5-2-2-1 Last 3: 2-1-3 Post: 2 Odds: 20-1 Former maiden claimer always shows up and was a solid second to highly rated Tacitus in the Wood. Gelding has blossomed for Gargan with three strong figs in stakes. Pedigree says he should handle 1 1/4 miles, and his big price could inflate the trifecta and superfecta. Hasn’t beaten a standout, though, so I can’t see him winning. 3. BY MY STANDARDS Trainer: Bret Calhoun Jockey: Gabriel Saez Record: 5-2-2-1 Last 3: 1-1-3 Post: 3 Odds: 15-1 Came out of nowhere to upset Louisiana Derby at 22-1 after breaking his maiden in his fourth start. Speed figure was good, with final furlong a quick :12 2/5 after rally from midpack. Positives: Never been out of the money, and training brilliantly at Churchill. Negatives: Not on short lists of likely winners, and hasn’t faced any top 3-year-olds. Maybe third or fourth, but that looks like his ceiling. 4. GRAY MAGICIAN Trainer: Peter Miller Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Record: 8-1-3-2 Last 3: 2-2-5 Post: 4 Odds: 50-1 Ran second in a very weak U.A.E. Derby, which earned him 40 Derby points. That’s too bad, because many of the horses who didn’t qualify are much better than this guy. His only win was at a mile in November at Del Mar, and his speed figures are poor. Don’t give him a second look. 5. IMPROBABLE Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Record: 5-3-2-0 Last 3: 2-2-1 Post: 5 Odds: 5-1 Serious buzz about him lessened after close seconds in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. Stamina questions arose after he was caught late by Long Range Toddy and failed to overtake Omaha Beach. City Zip not known for siring distance types, although Improbable’s dam is by Belmont winner A.P. Indy. Pedigree expert Lauren Stich doesn’t like this underlay’s chances, and neither do I. 6. VEKOMA Trainer: George Weaver Jockey: Javier Castellano Record: 4-3-0-1 Last 3: 1-3-1 Post: 6 Odds: 15-1 Exploited a strong speed bias to cruise by 3 1/2 lengths in a so-so Blue Grass, whose winner hasn’t taken the Derby since 1991. Never has run a bad race, and can’t argue with anybody who likes him at 20-1. His company lines are unimpressive, and my gut feeling is he doesn’t class up with the top 3-year-olds. Won’t be betting on him. 7. MAXIMUM SECURITY Trainer: Jason Servis Jockey: Luis Saez Record: 4-4-0-0 Last 3: 1-1-1 Post: 7 Odds: 8-1 Speedy colt is 4-for-4 by 37 3/4 lengths, so how can you knock him? C’mon, this is the Derby, where nothing is ever taken at face value. Former maiden claimer stole the Florida Derby on an easy lead, and that won’t happen Saturday against all the other quality speed. I think he’ll run strongly to the top of the stretch and fade, but I can’t fault you if you think he’ll keep going. Siding against him. 8. TACITUS Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Jose Ortiz Record: 4-3-0-0 Last 3: 1-1-1 Post: 8 Odds: 8-1 Hall of Famer Mott is 0-for-8 and never in the money in the Derby, but this colt represents his best chance ever. Imposing gray by top sire Tapit has a strong distance pedigree, and this midpack runner has strong late-pace figures. Seems very likely to handle 1 1/4 miles, and count on the brilliant Ortiz to deliver a smart ride. A serious contender, and I’ll be happy with 7-1 or 8-1. My pick to win. 9. PLUS QUE PARFAIT Trainer: Brendan Walsh Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Record: 7-2-1-2 Last 3: 1-13-5 Post: 9 Odds: 30-1 Struck it rich in Dubai by winning the $2.5 million U.A.E. Derby after running 13th and 5th in minor preps in New Orleans. Dubai field was very weak (runner-up Gray Magician is 1-for-8). Plus Que Parfait was second in a stakes at Churchill last fall, so at least you know he likes the track. That won’t be nearly enough. Throw him out. 10. CUTTING HUMOR Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Mike Smith Record: 6-2-2-1 Last 3: 1-7-2 Post: 10 Odds: 30-1 His career highlight was winning the Sunland Derby on the New Mexico/Texas border. John Velazquez, Pletcher’s main guy since the Nineties, jumps off to stick with Code of Honor, which isn’t much of a recommendation for this colt. Ruling out Pletcher at a huge price is risky, but I don’t think he’ll bring him his third Derby trophy. 13. CODE OF HONOR Trainer: Shug McGaughey Jockey: John Velazquez Record: 5-2-1-1 Last 3: 3-1-4 Post: 12 Odds: 12-1 Trouble-prone colt had no chance behind slow fractions in Florida Derby, where he closed OK after rough start. Weak speed figures, and if his connections weren’t Hall of Famers Shug and Johnny V., he’d be an even bigger price. Had a perfect set-up rallying off hot pace in Fountain of Youth, his best race. Seems better suited to shorter distances than to 1 1/4 miles. 14. WIN WIN WIN Trainer: Michael Trombetta Jockey: Julian Pimentel Record: 6-3-2-1 Last three: 2-3-1 Post: 13 Odds: 12-1 Deep closer slipped into the field by passing tired horses in Tampa Bay Derby (third) and Blue Grass (second). His best race was a romp in an ungraded 7-furlong stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in January. If you’re spraying around with longshots in trifectas and supers, he might be worth using for third and fourth, but don’t waste your money on a win bet. 15. MASTER FENCER Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda Jockey: Julien Leparoux Record: 6-2-2-0 Last 3: 2-4-1 Post: 14 Odds: 50-1 He’ll be the first Derby runner bred in Japan, and it doesn’t sound as if his trainer is aiming high. “I hope he comes back from the race safely most of all,” Tsunoda said. “I feel lucky to be able to race my horse in Kentucky.” Japan’s passionate bettors will put many yen on him, and they won’t get any back. He deserves a participation trophy for making the 13,000-mile round trip. 16. GAME WINNER Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Joel Rosario Record: 6-4-2-0 Last 3: 2-2-1 Post: 15 Odds: 9-2 The 2-year-old champ and winter-book Derby favorite lost some luster after close seconds in the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby. Maybe they’ll set him up to peak on Saturday, or maybe he’s not the star many thought he was. Doubting a gritty Baffert horse is dangerous, but this colt’s grinding style rarely wins the Derby. I’ll use him in exactas, but I think he’s more likely to be second or third than first. 17. ROADSTER Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Florent Geroux Record: 4-3-0-1 Last 3: 1-1-3 Post: 16 Odds: 5-1 Surged late to win Santa Anita Derby with change-of-pace tactics. The word last summer was that he was Baffert’s best 2-year-old before throat surgery ended his season prematurely. Solid pedigree for 1 1/4 miles, and should be ready to peak in third race off layoff. He’s extremely dangerous, even if post 17 is 0-for-40 all-time. Would be no surprise if he gave Baffert a record-tying sixth Derby. 18. LONG RANGE TODDY Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Jon Court Record: 8-4-1-1 Last 3: 6-1-3 Post: 17 Odds: 30-1 Few had heard of him until he jumped up and upset Bob Baffert’s highly touted (and probably overrated) Improbable in a division of the Rebel. A distant sixth in the Arkansas Derby, failing to cope with post 11 and a sloppy track.<doc-sep>Bob Baffert, the Hall of Fame trainer of Triple Crown winners American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018, has three horses in the Kentucky Derby. The most promising is Game Winner, winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile in 2018 and runner up in the Santa Anita Derby this past April. His other two horses, Roadster (the winner of the Santa Anita Derby) and Improbable (a son of City Zip, who is looking for his first win as a 3-year-old) are among the top betting choices.<doc-sep>Bob Baffert, the Hall of Fame trainer of Triple Crown winners American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018, has three horses in the Kentucky Derby. The most promising is Game Winner, winner of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in 2018 and runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby this past April. His other two horses, Roadster (the winner of the Santa Anita Derby) and Improbable (a son of City Zip who is looking for his first win as a 3-year-old) are among the top betting choices.<doc-sep>
NOTE: These picks were made prior to the news that Omaha Beach has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby. The 2019 Kentucky Derby is just days away, and while Omaha Beach may be your morning-line favorite, several horse racing experts and other notable figures in Louisville don't believe he's the only horse worth watching Meet the field:Check out the Kentucky Derby 2019 post position draw, jockeys, odds Big news:Omaha Beach out of the 2019 Kentucky Derby Kentucky Derby longshots:5 underdog horses who could win you big money Ed DeRosa, TwinSpires.com Winner: By My Standards Long shot I like: Tax Comment: I thought By My Standards looked great in the Louisiana Derby, Gabriel Saez knows where to put this horse. At 20-1 he's my pick. Jason Frakes, Courier Journal Winner: Roadster. On the board: Omaha Beach, Improbable. Long shot I like: Tax. Comment: I'm a sucker for a story, and Roadster's is one of the best - from 2-year-old phenom to throat surgery to qualifying for the Derby in his last chance. Justify took care of the "Curse of Apollo" last year. Now it's Roadster's turn to take care of the "Curse of Post Position 17." Gentry Estes, Courier Journal Winner: Roadster On the board: Game Winner, Tacitus, Win Win Win Comment: No horse has ever won in the 17th spot in the Kentucky Derby, but a lot of people said last year Justify couldn't win it after not racing as a 2-year-old, so I think we're going to buck another trend here. Gary Graves, Associated Press Winner: Omaha Beach Long shot I like: Plus Que Parfait Comment: Omaha Beach is a good horse that has shown it can get out in front face and run well on many different services. Top 10:The definitive (and totally arbitrary) list of best Kentucky Derby horse names Kent Spencer, WHAS 11 Winner: Omaha Beach On the board: Tacitus, By My Standards Comment: I know Omaha Beach is the favorite, but let's be honest, the favorite has won six straight. I look for Omaha Beach to make it seven. Kent Taylor, WAVE Horses I like: Omaha Beach, Improbable, Code of Honor and Win Win Win Bet on Baffert?Bob Baffert is a great trainer, but betting on his horses is a risk' Fred Cowgill, WLKY Winner: Improbable On The Board: Roadster Long shot: By My Standards Comment: Improbable faced huge adversities in the Arkansas Derby. Labored in the gate before the start, likely should’ve been scratched. Did not like blinkers. Raced four wide on a wet track that favored inside speed, still finished a gutty second to possible Kentucky Derby favorite Omaha Beach, who had it all his own way. Oaks draw:Check out the Kentucky Oaks 2019 post position draw, jockeys, odds Bill Doolittle, Insider Louisville and Louisville Magazine Horses I like: Code of Honor, Omaha Beach, Tacitus Comment: Code of Honor has trained very well in Kentucky and stands a nice-odds chance to catch – and maybe pass – Omaha Beach in the final quarter mile of the 145th Run for the Roses. Or maybe not. Tacitus is a cool-looking gray in the morning light. Kentucky Derby tickets:You can still buy Kentucky Derby tickets. But it'll cost you Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville Winner: Improbable Long shot I like: Cutting Humor Comment: I like Improbable – great post position draw and has been improving every week. Draw analysis:Breaking down winners and losers of the 2019 Kentucky Derby draw Vince Tyra, University of Louisville Athletic Director Winner: Game Winner On the board: Improbable, Tacitus. Comment: Emotionally, I'm for Improbable with the local connection to Starlight Racing... but for what I do, Game Winner is my pick for Saturday. More picks:Free Brisnet past performances for 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders Jonathan Lintner, horseracingnation.com Winner: Game Winner On the board: Tacitus, Omaha Beach Long shot I like: Spinoff Comment: I expect a hotter pace than most, and that should set up for Game Winner, who is a gift as the second choice in this race as he cycles back into top form. Naturally, Omaha Beach deserves higher consideration over a sloppy track. Tim Sullivan, Courier Journal Winner: Game Winner Long shot I like: Maximum Security Paul Rolfes, Journalist Horses I like: Tacitus — The unexpected scratch of favorite Omaha Beach has handicappers scrambling. Of all the Derby contenders working out this week, this colt who is unbeaten as a 3-year-old has been training great.