PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL - FEBRUARY 21: A plaque and statue commemorating "The Bear Trap" as seen during a practice round prior to The Honda Classic at PGA National Resort & Spa - Champions Course on February 21, 2017 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) At PGA National this week, competitors navigated it well before they ever approached the 15th hole. Although the Bear Trap is the most famous, it was a different stretch that took top honors for the most difficult. For some reason not yet determined, golf lore has a particular fondness for three-hole stretches. Whether it’s the closing three at TPC Sawgrass, Amen Corner at Augusta National, or the 7th through 9th along the Pacific at Pebble Beach, fans tend to be especially drawn to danger when it is presented in trilogy fashion. The famous Bear Trap at this week’s Tour stop, PGA National, fits right into that genre. Maybe it’s the water, which seems abundant in such trilogies and which is omnipresent between the 15th tee and 17th green. The 15th is a 160-yard to 181 yard all-carry par 3, the 16th is a 427 to 443 yard par 4 requiring a drive close to water followed by a 181-yard all-carry approach, and the 17th is another all-carry par 3, this time between 154 and 178 yards. Given its location toward the end of the round, the Bear Trap is designed to be – and certainly is advertised as – determinative of the tournament’s outcome. If Dan Hicks said it once this weekend he said it a dozen times, generally in tones befitting a gladiator’s appearance on the floor of the coliseum: “(Players name) is entering the Bear Trap.” But that three-hole stretch’s reputation begs a question: Is it deserved? Was the Bear Trap truly the point on the course where the outcome of the Honda Classic was settled? Or is the appellation better viewed as a marketing gimmick: useful mostly for drawing eyeballs to the telecast? There are two ways to test the proposition. The first involves measuring the volatility of three-hole stretches, the second involves measuring their difficulty. When we compare those calculations to the results produced by the tournament’s leaders, we can take a true measure of the Bear Trap. By the way, both tests involve only relatively simple math. The volatility test is essentially a standard deviation test. It asks this question: For every three-hole spread at PGA National, how wide was the normal range of scores? The wider the spread, the greater the volatility of that trilogy of holes…and, the theory would hold, the more likely that volatility is to influence the tournament’s outcome. For purposes of reference, the median standard deviation spread of three-hole scores was about eight-tenths of a stroke. In simple terms, if the par for any three-hole stretch was 12.0, about 70 percent of all scores would fall between 11.2 and 12.8 strokes. It may not surprise those who watched the tournament on TV – and it certainly will delight sponsors – to know that the most volatile three-hole stretch at PGA National this past weekend was the stretch from 16 through 18. The first standard deviation of scores on those three holes – with a combined par of 12 – was +0.958, creating a natural spread of from 11.042 strokes all the way to 12.958 strokes. Nearly 40 percent of all scores made on those three holes was something other than par. By tournament standards, that is a highly volatile mixture of holes. For the record, the Bear Trap ranked fifth in three-hole volatility with a normal distribution of +0.853. The problem with merely using those numbers to uphold the reputation of the Bear Trap as a decisive tournament element is that the results don’t support it. Since churn doesn’t always equate to motion, that’s not really surprising. The champion, Keith Mitchell, played the Bear Trap in three-under this week, and played the 16th through 18th in 2-under. While that’s good, it’s not a winner. Consider that the two veterans who finished one stroke behind Mitchell, Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka, played the final three holes in minus 7 and minus 5 respectively this week. Two other members of the final top 10, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh, both played the 16th through 18th better than Mitchell. Lucas Glover and Ryan Palmer, who tied each other for fourth, both equaled Mitchell’s performance through the Bear Trap, and Glover also matched him across the closing three holes. That confusion sends us to our second test, raw difficulty, in search of an answer. The test asks which three-hole set produced the highest average scores relative to par? And on this test, the Bear Trap comes across as ever so slightly cubbish. The average combined score for the 15th through 17th holes was 10.33, which is one-third of a stroke above the Bear Trap’s par of 10. For the week, that meant the Bear Trap played only as the fifth toughest three-hole stretch at PGA National. The four stretches playing tougher relative to par were: Holes 5 through 7, 10.699, +0.699 Holes 4 through 6, 11.549, +.549 Holes 10 through 12, 12.525, +.525 Holes 6 through 8, 11.483, +.483 The 5th through 7th at PGA National played Cinderella all week to its more famous, and more preening back nine step-sister, the Bear Trap. Like the Bear Trap, is consists of two par 3s and a par 4…although 5, 6 and 7 are uniformly longer and more stern than 15 through 17. Also like the Bear Trap, water threatens every shot. The difference, obviously, is that the Bear Trap is positioned in the far more glamorous and far more attention-getting location. But this week at least, the front nine stretch was more decisive. Here’s the proof. In winning the tournament, Mitchell survived that three-hole front 9 stretch in even par, making one birdie, one bogey and 10 pars for the week. Koepka and Fowler, who finished one stroke out of a playoff, each played those same three front nine holes in three over par. Ryan Palmer, who tied for fourth, two behind Mitchell, played 5 through 7 in four over par. Any of the three more veteran players who trailed Mitchell so closely would have won if they had navigated PGA National’s 5th through 7th with even approximately the same skill level as Mitchell. This is not to say the Bear Trap was docile. In fact, during Saturday’s third round, it did play as the course’s toughest three-hole stretch, requiring an average of 10.588 strokes to navigate. Players that day fought their way through the 5th through 7th in an average of 10.312 strokes. But because that difficulty was limited to Saturday, it’s most likely ascribable to that day’s pin positions, or possibly to especially unfavorable winds in that part of the course. On all three other tournament days, the 5th through 7th was the most difficult three-hole stretch on the course. The Bear Trap rated as only the eighth most difficult stretch on Thursday, and as merely the 10th most difficult on Friday. During Sunday’s final round, it ranked fifth in difficulty. Want your voice heard? Join the Pro Golf Now team! Write for us! Here’s the bottom line: The Bear Trap is a catchy name and a great marketing phrase. It also identifies three challenging holes. But the Honda Classic was decided on a three-hole stretch the contenders completed long before reaching that part of the course.<doc-sep>Share this Story: PGA National's Bear Trap among scariest stretches in golf PGA National's Bear Trap among scariest stretches in golf Photo by Courtesy of PGA National Resort & Spa Article content PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. — These guys are scary good. And when the PGA Tour’s biggest stars are scared of a stretch of golf holes, the rest of us should be … well … terrified. We apologize, but this video has failed to load. tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or PGA National's Bear Trap among scariest stretches in golf Back to video In the sometimes twisted pursuit of pars (or, better yet, birdies), that is part of the appeal. Defending champion Justin Thomas, major machine Brooks Koepka, fan favourite Rickie Fowler and their smooth-swinging pals return this week to the Champion Course at PGA National Resort & Spa, home to the Honda Classic and famous for a three-hole heartbreaker/memory-maker known as ‘The Bear Trap.’ If it can bite the best, look out … As Rory Sabbatini, a past winner at PGA National, put it: “There’s a pretty good reason they call it ‘The Bear Trap’ because if it doesn’t get you one way, it’s going to get you another.” Indeed, those back-to-back-to-back back-breakers — Nos. 15 to 17 on the scorecard — can spoil a good round in a flash. Or in a splash. Advertisement Story continues below This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Article content PGA National Resort & Spa is located in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., an hour drive from the airport in Fort Lauderdale — also easily accessible from the runways in Miami — and about the same travel time from where the NHL’s Florida Panthers play their home games at BB&T Center. The tee-sheet is not open for daily-fee action, but stay-and-play guests at this sun-soaked retreat have access to all four championship-length layouts on this picturesque property, a lineup that also includes the Fazio, Palmer and Squire Courses. (A fifth option, the Estates Course, is not far away.) Photo by Courtesy photo No offence to the others, but it’s the Champion Course, with a history of hosting biggies both before and after a significant re-design by legendary Jack Nicklaus in 2002, that makes this a bucket-list destination for any club-toting tourist. The entrance to The Bear Trap is marked by a statue of a … duh … bear — the PGA Tour pros might be the only ones not stopping to snap a selfie for Facebook or Instagram — and a plaque on which Nicklaus declares “it should be won or lost right here.” If you don’t lose any golf balls, consider it a win. After all, tour mainstay Graeme McDowell has characterized this much-hyped hat-trick as “probably some of the toughest three holes in world golf, really,” and the statistics from last season back that up. Even for those who can bomb it like Bubba, it’s not distance that gives ‘The Bear Trap’ its claws. Instead, it’s all about accuracy, club selection and trying to calm your nerves in what is often a swirling wind. Advertisement Story continues below This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Article content Photo by Courtesy photo The green at No. 15 clings to the edge of a pond, bad news if your tee-ball falls short or strays right. You can chicken out (like I did) and aim left, but that will leave a knee-knocking sand-shot as you try to salvage par. Despite measuring a ho-hum 179 yards for the pros, this ranked as the ninth-hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2018. Next up is No. 16, a Par-4 that doglegs to the right over more wet stuff. On this day, my playing partner couldn’t have placed his drive much better. And then? Into what our forecaddie guesstimated was a three-club wind, he plopped his approach in the drink. Fowler has suggested that No. 17 — spanning between 111-190 yards but a heart-thumper from any distance as you try to thread the needle between water and a back bunker — might be the toughest Par-3 on their circuit. In 2018, it was. With an average score of 0.553 strokes above par, it was the third-hardest hole at any tour stop last season. Only a pair of 500-and-some-yard Par-4s at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills caused more trouble for the top guns. In four spins at the Honda Classic, Rory McIlroy mixed a birdie, a par, a triple bogey and a quad on No. 17. Perfect. Because if your first attempt — and maybe your mulligan, too — turns out to be alligator bait, well, that’s why you haven’t quit your day-job. But if you manage to find the short stuff and then drain the putt, it’s a birdie you will be boasting about for a long, long time. Photo by Courtesy photo “I don’t care if they make golf balls that go for a thousand yards — ‘The Bear Trap’ will stand the test no matter what the equipment is,” Nicklaus once said. “It’s not about length, it’s about precision. It’s about guts. It’s all about what do you have in your chest that you can finish those holes.” Advertisement Story continues below This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Article content With Thomas shooting this week to defend his tournament title, the Champion Course has a slightly different look — the marquee layout was closed for several months to rebuild and re-surface the green complexes, with an eye on returning the size and shape of the dance-floors to what the Golden Bear initially designed. In a dozen previous editions of the Honda Classic at PGA National, the list of winners also includes the starry likes of Fowler, McIlroy, Ernie Els and Adam Scott. There have been many more of trophy presentations under these palms. Nicklaus captained the Americans — led by Ben Crenshaw and Lanny Wadkins — to a Ryder Cup victory here in 1983, while Larry Nelson collected his third major when he prevailed in a playoff scorcher at the 1987 PGA Championship. During a lengthy run as site of the Senior PGA Championship, several of the biggest names in the history of the sport triumphed on this splashy setup — Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Lee Trevino, etc., etc. Those are the success stories. When it comes to PGA National, your divot-digging idols likely have some horrors to share, too. Photo by Courtesy photo Prior to winning the Honda Classic last February, Thomas reminisced about his rookie appearance at the home of ‘The Bear Trap,’ telling reporters that he “dropped maybe nine times in two days,” en route to missing the cut. “I hit it in so many hazards, it was unbelievable,” Thomas recalled. Perhaps that’s where us amateurs have an edge — we’re accustomed to emptying two or three sleeves of balls during our rounds. Advertisement Story continues below This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Article content And having a blast while doing so. If you crave the sort of challenge that leaves the best of the best a little shaky in their soft spikes, the Champion Course at PGA National is must-play material. With water hazards on nearly every hole, I had already bid farewell to three Titleists — and spotted one wee gator — before I reached the notorious stretch known as ‘The Bear Trap.’ Gulp. “I fear those holes — there’s no doubt about that,” has admitted Padraig Harrington, a three-time major champion and winner of the 2015 Honda Classic. “My strategy has never changed. You know, first goal is not to hit in the water. The second goal is not to hit it in the bunkers. And then hopefully, you hit on the green between them.” Simple strategy. Good luck following that advice. wgilbertson@postmedia.com Twitter.com/WesGilbertson Share this article in your social network Latest National Stories Advertisement Story continues below This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<doc-sep>PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. – The Bear Trap’s party hole shouldn’t be quite as daunting this year. The Honda Classic moved up the tee box at the PGA National Champion Course’s 17th hole and rebuilt the seating around the party pavilions. The scorecard yardage is now 175 yards, but it will probably play even shorter, perhaps as short as 150 yards with a front pin location, which feels like a reprieve for Tour pros who typically face tough crosswinds playing to a green guarded front and right by water. The hole played to 190 yards on the scorecard last year. “Padraig Harrington gave me a hug when I told him we are moving up the tee box,” Honda Classic executive director Ken Kennerly said. “It’s better for the players and the fans.” The bleachers also have been reconstructed, helping add to the amphitheater feel there, but the tee box no longer sits so formidably close to the fans. Theirs is more of a buffer now. “We always joked that it was a pretty tough 4-iron into a back, right pin when somebody was spilling a vodka cranberry on you in your backswing,” Graeme McDowell said. “I think it’s great. The hole is plenty difficult from the up tee in the swirling winds we get here.” In the past, McDowell said the standard shot was a 6-iron there. Now, it’s an 8-iron. Full-field tee times from the Honda Classic Honda Classic: Articles, photos and videos That isn’t the only reprieve players will be getting this week. The rough is down this year, cut to 2¼ inches. Plus, Kennerly pushed for new greens, and PGA National rebuilt them after last year’s event, with new Tifdwarf Bermuda grasses, in a $1 million reconstruction. There were complaints about the aging greens a year ago. “Ken’s done a great job listening to the players and their concerns,” Billy Horschel said. With moderate winds forecast this week, and with the light rough, there’s a possibility scoring could be lower than the tournament has seen in some time. Horschel, however, wonders if the firmness of the new greens will actually add to the scoring challenge. “The greens are very firm, and they’re very quick, good tournament speed,” said Jeremiah Lockhart, PGA National’s director of agronomy. Justin Thomas won with an 8-under total last year. The winning score has been single-digits under par in five of the last six years. “The greens are in fabulous shape, but they’re so firm it will be tough to get close to the hole,” Horschel said.<doc-sep>
Share this Story: BEWARE OF BEAR TRAP: 1,310 balls in the water and counting BEWARE OF BEAR TRAP: 1,310 balls in the water and counting Article content Adam Hadwin isn’t playing at this week’s Honda Classic, but by week’s end he might find himself king of the tournament’s agonizing Bear Trap. More on that later. We apologize, but this video has failed to load. tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or BEWARE OF BEAR TRAP: 1,310 balls in the water and counting Back to video When Jack Nicklaus re-designed the Champion Course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, he created a three-hole stretch that has been giving players nightmares ever since. Hole Nos. 15-17 make up the Bear Trap, and since the tournament moved to PGA National in 2007, the best golfers in the world have gone a combined 3,489 over par while playing these three holes. On the scorecard, the stretch doesn’t look like much: Two sub-200-yard par 3s and a short par 4. But add water everywhere, Florida wind, and the pressure of closing out your round, and the Bear Trap becomes the place for fans to grab their popcorn and watch the meltdowns. “It’s going to be difficult in the afternoon when the winds come up, but that’s Florida, once it hits noon it’s going to blow 20-25 miles per hour and anytime you’re out there on those few holes, it always seems to swirl a little bit and you’re checking it and double-checking it, and it makes it very difficult,” Brooks Koepka said Wednesday at his press conference. “In the morning, if you can squeak through it, you can definitely shoot under par. But get into the afternoon when it’s blowing, good luck.” Article content There’s a sign before the 15th tee that reads: “You are now entering the Bear Trap.” At the bottom is a quote from Nicklaus: “It should be won or lost right here” The Bear Trap’s closing hole, the par-3 17th, is now virtually surrounded by closely encroaching grandstands and has become the Honda Classic’s answer to the Phoenix Open’s party hole 16th. The problem at PGA National is the tee shot at 17 is one of the hardest on the course, so players often aren’t in a partying mood.This year, however, the hole has had some of its bite removed and will play at approximately 175 yards, 15 yards shorter than previous years. “That’s definitely easier,” said defending champion Justin Thomas at his press conference Wednesday. “Not having to potentially hit a 5-iron into that green is very nice. That’s not a very fun shot. When you have wind into your face off the right, and you’re trying to feather a cut five-iron in there.” Article content In 12 years at the Bear Trap, there have been 1,310 balls in the water over the three holes. Of 511 players who have played it even once, 397 have found the water. Almost everyone (89.6% of players) is over par for their career there. A painful 29.4% of players are 10-over par or worse. Only 5.7% of players have played the Bear Trap under par. Which brings us to Hadwin. The Canadian, who is not in the field this week, has played six rounds and is 6-under at the Bear Trap. That ties him with Russell Knox for scoring leader among players who have played at least five rounds. Unlike Hadwin, Knox is playing, so come Sunday, Hadwin – with his feet on the couch – could become top bear tamer. WEAK FIELD, SO WHAT, EH? There has been plenty of talk this week about the Honda Classic being the first casualty of the revamped PGA Tour schedule. Usually a popular stop on tour, this year it will feature just three of the top-20 ranked players in the world. Article content The field is headlined by three-time major champ Koepka, defending champ Thomas, and fan favourite Rickie Fowler. All three players live minutes from the Palm Beach Gardens course, a popular area for tour pros. No Tiger, Rory or Phil, but there are six Canadians teeing it up. On Sunday, Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Taylor, Roger Sloan and Adam Svensson looked like they’d make up the Canadian contingent. Then on Monday, Ontario’s Drew Nesbitt shot a 65 in qualifying to earn a spot in the field. Nesbitt shot the first 59 on the Latinoamerica Tour in 2018, and competed in the 2017 RBC Candian Open.