The final game of the Week 3 NFL schedule features two of the season's most surprising teams when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET, and after opening as 2.5-point underdogs, the Bucs are now favored by one. The Over-Under for total points scored is 54.5, up 4.5 from the opener. Before you make any Steelers vs. Buccaneers picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and it just crunched the numbers for Monday Night Football. In a straight-up format, the proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, the computer went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. It also nailed its three top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Chiefs against the spread (+4.5) and on the money line (+170) for their big upset of the Steelers. It's now 5-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 53-36. For Bucs vs. Steelers, we can tell you the model loves the Under, which hits in 68 percent of simulations, but it also has generated a strong spread selection that hits well over half the time. This pick is only available at SportsLine. The model knows this is a crucial game for two clubs that defied expectations on opposing ends of the spectrum. The Steelers were expected to roll through their division and possibly contend for a 2019 Super Bowl berth, but they remain winless after two games. The Bucs were widely projected as one of the NFL's worst teams, but started the season with two upsets in convincing fashion. The Steelers remain plagued by distractions centered around the continued holdout of star running back Le'Veon Bell and tweets from Antonio Brown. On the field, they remain plagued by a defense that has been unable to slow down the opposition. Pittsburgh blew a two-touchdown lead in a season-opening 21-21 tie with Browns and is coming off a 42-37 to loss to the Chiefs in which it spotted Kansas City a three-touchdown lead. Needless to say, the Steelers (0-1-1) are in desperate need of a win, but that doesn't mean they are destined to cover as slight underdogs against a Bucs (2-0) team that has emphatically defied meager expectations. Tampa Bay is coming off a five-win season in which it had the NFL's worst defense, and it began the 2018 campaign with starting quarterback Jameis Winston sidelined by a three-game suspension. The Bucs were the biggest underdog on the board in Week 1 (+10) at New Orleans, but behind 417 yards and four touchdowns from journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, they pulled the 48-40 upset. Fitzpatrick threw for 402 yards and four more scores last week, and the defense made key stops in a 27-21 upset as a three-point underdog against the Super Bowl champion Eagles. Who wins Steelers-Bucs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.<doc-sep>There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Pittsburgh Steelers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props, along with the FantasyLabs prop tool. You can find value on other props by signing up for FantasyLabs here. We take each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverage them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons. Our Props tool has been killing it to start the season, with props graded a 10 out of 10 covering at a 60.9% clip (39-25) against the closing number. Below, we highlight two of the props popping the most based on our projections. >> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see the nine MNF props rated a 10 out of 10 value, according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 1 p.m. ET on Monday. Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin The pick: Over 36.5 receiving yards (-140 at 5Dimes) With 10 targets through the first two weeks, Godwin has an average stat line of 4-48.5-1 with a 22% target share of air yards in the Bucs offense. He played only 50% of the snaps last week, but Godwin has been extremely efficient on a limited number of routes (17 in Week 2). Tampa Bay will need to score points, and Mike Evans should see a ton of Joe Haden, which should lead to even more opportunities for Godwin. Buccaneers WR Adam Humphries The pick: Under 2.5 receptions (-103 at BetOnline) With the Bucs offense going absolutely nuts to start the year, Humphries has been somewhat of an afterthought (35 receiving yards on seven targets). His low 7.27 career yards per target haven’t meshed well with Ryan Fitzpatrick’s willingness to be aggressive downfield. FitzMagic leads the league in air yards per attempt (9.0) and deep ball completion percentage (77.8%). This line seems high for what has been making Tampa Bay successful to start the year, and Humphries’ two-reception-per-game average is likely to remain relatively similar as long as Fitzpatrick is behind center.<doc-sep>Another week, and another outstanding performance from quarterbacks at the opposite ends of their NFL journeys: Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick are atop the MVP leaderboard and both will lead their teams to wins in Week 3 In other games, the Browns continue their search for a win, the Bills are just trying to keep from getting blown out (and having somebody retire at halftime), the Bengals are looking to get to 3-0 (! ), while the Rams continue to make their case for the NFL's most complete team. We'll talk about all 16 games in our picks below. LAST WEEK: 8-7-1 OVERALL RECORD: 18-12-2 N.Y. Jets at Cleveland The Browns could be 2-0 right now. But because they're the Browns, they're 0-1-1. Changes are afoot, however; scapegoated kicker Zane Gonzalez has been replaced and mercurial wideout Josh Gordon has been traded, though it's hard to imagine that a team with one win since Christmas Eve 2016 is now poised to get the next one. The Jets smoked the Lions in Week 1 but stumbled against a surprisingly successful Dolphins outfit last Sunday. And for all the perceived progress Cleveland has made -- veteran leaders like Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry to complement young playmakers like David Njoku, Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward -- this group still has no idea how to win football games. Pick: Jets 21, Browns 16 What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? And what favorite goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years. Buffalo at Minnesota The Bills continue their march to the type of futility rarely seen in professional sports. And we say that as someone who watched the Browns go 0-16 a season ago. The difference: The Browns have been really bad for some time. It's been nine months since the Bills went 9-7 and made the playoffs! It was their first postseason appearance since 1999, and if the changes aren't both urgent and drastic, there's a much greater chance Buffalo has the first-overall pick long before its next trip to the playoffs. Helping to facilitate that: Traveling to Minnesota to face one of the league's most balanced teams. The Vikings have a top-5 defense and quarterback Kirk Cousins aims to make the offense even more explosive than it was a season ago under Case Keenum. However you look at it, this spells doom for the Bills and rookie quarterback Josh Allen, who threw two picks and was sacked five times in his debut last week against the Chargers. Pick: Vikings 34, Bills 9 Cincinnati at Carolina The Bengals are not just the best team in the AFC North, they're one of the best teams in the entire conference, right up there with the Jaguars and Chiefs (we're reserving judgment for now on the other undefeated AFC teams, Miami and Denver). The 2015 season, when Andy Dalton was quietly one of the NFL's most efficient quarterbacks, is also the last time Cincinnati made the playoffs. The offensive line has been very good through the first two weeks and Dalton has flourished. The defense been good too; Geno Atkins has three sacks and rookie safety got his first career pick against the Ravens last week. The Panthers are coming off a tough loss to the Falcons, and will be the Bengals' toughest test of the young season. Christian McCaffrey is emerging as playmaker in his second season and coach Ron Rivera indicated that he wants to get rookie first-rounder D.J. Moore more involved in the offense this week. But will it be enough to stop a Bengals team that has scored 34 points in both wins? Pick: Bengals 24, Panthers 23 Denver at Baltimore So who are the 2018 Ravens? The team that dismantled the hapless Bills in the opener or the one that slowly imploded against the Bengals? Put another way: Is Joe Flacco elite? To answer that question, it's worth noting that Flacco's eliteness doesn't travel to Cincinnati, where he has played some of the worst football of his 11-year NFL career. Flacco is much better at M&T Bank Stadium where he wins 76 percent of the time. And for the first time in a long time, this offense has balance; Alex Collins can be a workhorse back and the pass catchers can actually, you know, catch passes -- offseason additions John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead are all contributing. The Broncos have beaten two bad teams -- Seattle and Oakland -- at home and while Case Keenum is an indisputable upgrade over (take your pick) Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch, he's completing only 59.5 percent of his throws and has just three touchdowns against four interceptions. Pick: Ravens 17, Broncos 10 Green Bay at Washington A week after Aaron Rodgers and the Packers overcame a 20-0 deficit to beat the Bears, he one-upped himself in Minnesota where he completed 71 percent of his passes on only one good leg in a performance that should've ended in victory (ridiculous penalties and honked field goals resulted in a tie). The Redskins were flying high after their 24-6 thrashing of the Cardinals in Arizona in Week 1, but it turns out that the Cards may be one of the NFL's worst teams and Washington came crashing back to earth in Sunday's home loss to the Colts. We'll need a few more weeks to figure out the identity of this Skins team but we all know what the Packers are about. Pick: Packers 27, Redskins 20 Indianapolis at Philadelphia CARSON WENTZ IS BACK. This is a huge development because he was the leading MVP candidate before he tore his ACL last December, and despite Nick Foles playing out of his mind in January and February, he's since returned to his replacement-level-playing ways. One word of caution: We shouldn't expect Wentz to pick right up where he left off. His return to the field was delayed two weeks while he continued to recover and if we've learned anything from Deshaun Watson, who tore his ACL last November after tossing 19 touchdowns in six starts, it's that patience may be required before these young quarterbacks return to form. Same holds for old quarterbacks too; Andrew Luck went some 600 days between starts, missing all of 2017 with a shoulder injury. Thankfully, new coach Frank Reich had him throw the ball only 31 times last week after watching Luck put it up a whopping 53 times in the opener. Balance is key in Indy, where Luck continues to slowly work his way back. Pick: Eagles 21, Colts 18 New Orleans at Atlanta It's silly to say because it's only Week 3, but if the Falcons and Saints aren't in "MUST-WIN" territory, they're uncomfortably close. Both teams were widely considered playoff favorites before the season but now both sit at 1-1 behind the undefeated and seemingly unstoppable Buccaneers in the NFC South. If any team has an edge in this matchup it's the Falcons, who are coming off a big win over the Panthers, and that included something we haven't seen in a while: A Matt Ryan-led red-zone offense. There are issues in Atlanta, however. The injures are piling up; safety Keanu Neal is done for the year and linebacker Deion Jones is out indefinitely while running back Devonta Freeman won't be back for a few more weeks. Still, in addition to Ryan there's Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Freeman's replacement, Tevin Coleman, who ran for 107 yards last week. The Saints are healthier but also have a lot more unanswered questions. They were blown out at home by the Bucs in Week 1 and should have lost to the Browns on Sunday. The good news is that the offense can be explosive -- and Michael Thomas is making his case for the NFL's best receiver -- but the defense, which was a top-5 unit last year, can't seem to find its form. Pick: Falcons 31, Saints 28 N.Y. Giants at Houston<doc-sep>
Betting odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread: Steelers +1 Over/Under: 54 Time: 8:15 p.m. ET TV channel: ESPN >> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets Betting market: Nearly 60% of bettors are taking Ryan Fitzpatrick and the 2-0 Bucs as small home favorites at the time of writing (see live data here). There has been no shortage of line movement, either: The Steelers got as high as 3-point favorites in some spots, but they’re now 1-point underdogs at most shops. Something that pretty much everyone has agreed on is that there will be points galore in this game. Tampa’s high-scoring ways and Pittsburgh’s porous defense have led to nearly 80% of bets and dollars on the over, which has driven the line up from 50 to 53.5/54. — Mark Gallant Trends to know: The big line movements Mark describes are often a market overreaction to recent events. And that’s particularly the case when the swings occur in prime-time games. The public is clearly buying the hype with Fitzpatrick’s hot start (78.7% completion rate, eight TDs, one interception), but I’d be wary of falling into that trap. According to our Bet Labs data (since 2003), it has been profitable to bet against large line movement (two or more points) in prime-time games: 87-61-5 (59%) ATS. — John Ewing Along the same lines of John’s note: This over/under opened at 50 last weekend and has been bet all the way up to 54.5/55 in some spots. Some contrarian trends to consider: When two teams that are averaging at least 28 PPG face off and the total increases from the opening to closing lines, the under is 20-10 (+8.7 units). When the total increases from the opening to closing lines with an over/under of 50 or more in a prime-time game, the under is 33-23-2 (+7.7 units). The under is 25-15 (+9.1 units) when just a third of the money or less is on the under in a prime-time game. (At the time of writing, just 23% of the money was on the under.) And now a word of caution: This is the first time in our 15-plus-season database when two teams averaging 28+ PPG on offense and allowing 28+ PPG on defense will meet. Welcome to Monday Night Football! — Evan Abrams Injury watch: The Buccaneers could face the Steelers without the services of two key starters in the secondary: Chris Conte (knee) and cornerback Brent Grimes (groin) are both questionable for Monday night. Their presence is especially vital considering the team’s defensive line will be without defensive tackles Beau Allen (foot) and Vita Vea (calf). The Steelers defense will welcome back defensive tackle Tyson Alualu (shoulder) and cornerback Joe Haden (hamstring) to the lineup, but safety Morgan Burnett (groin) is doubtful and not expected to suit up Monday night. The biggest issue is the team’s offensive line, as right tackle Marcus Gilbert (hamstring) and right guard David DeCastro (hand) aren’t expected to play. — Ian Hartitz Did you know? Believe it or not, Fitzpatrick leads all NFL quarterbacks with 13.4 yards per attempt. That could spell trouble for a Steelers defense that has allowed a league-leading seven completions of 20-plus yards. Speaking of FitzMagic, he has thrown for 400+ yards in each of the first two games of the season. He’s the first QB to do so since Tom Brady in 2011 (and third in NFL history). Brady ended up throwing four picks in a Week 3 loss to the Bills, who had none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. — Stuckey DFS edge (Steelers): Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are obviously the top two dogs in the Steelers’ passing game, but don’t sleep on rookie James Washington. He deserves a long look as a boom-or-bust/DFS tournament option considering he played 80% of the offense’s snaps and saw five targets in Week 2. Washington ranks second among all receivers with an average target depth of 26 yards (minimum five targets) entering Week 2, and faces off against the Buccaneers’ 31st-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. — Ian Hartitz DFS edge (Buccaneers): DeSean Jackson is fantasy’s PPR WR3 entering Week 2, catching all nine of his targets for a league-leading 275 yards and three touchdowns. D-Jax has made the most of his opportunities so far, but 63 other wide receivers have seen more targets through two weeks.