The Open Championship is maybe the toughest of the four majors to predict on an annual basis, especially right now. At the Masters and the U.S. Open, you have clear-cut favorites who have performed splendidly in recent years. Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson at Augusta National. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka at the U.S. Open. Even the PGA Championship has Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. But The Open is, as it probably should be, far more ambiguous. With that in mind, let's try and sort through some recent trends as well as some recent history at Open Championship venues to find the 25 golfers most likely to win the third major of 2018. 1. Marc Leishman (Best finish — T2 in 2015): I legitimately had no idea who to put in this space (more on that in a minute). Leishman has rocked across the pond, though, where he has three top 10s in his last four Opens, including a playoff loss at St. Andrews in 2015. He also finished in the top 10 earlier this year at the Masters. So laugh now but thank me later when you win your fantasy pool. 2. Sergio Garcia (2nd in 2007): He also has three top-10 finishes in his last four outings at Opens, and he was the runner-up in 2007 at Carnoustie when Padraig Harrington won in a playoff. I can't believe I'm touting somebody who has a single 70th-place finish and five missed cuts in his last six PGA Tour events, but here we are. I'm also encouraged by multiple top 15s on the European Tour after the U.S. Open. 3. Rickie Fowler (T2 in 2014): Fowler has a lot of misnomers about his career thus far, but chief among them might be that he's been elite at Opens. He's been fine -- two top 10s in eight appearances -- but he has as many top 20s in the last three Opens as you do. Regardless, he's coming off a strong showing at the Scottish Open, and a wicked test at insurmountable Carnoustie feels like it has name written all over it (don't listen to me, though, I picked him for the first two majors of the year). 4. Brooks Koepka (T6 in 2017): The two-time U.S. Open champion has finished in the top 10 in each of his last two appearances at The Open. If anybody is going to stare into and flex on the North Sea, it's going to be Koepka. He's been nails at major championships in the past few years, too. Koepka has 12 top-20 finishes in his last 15 majors and hasn't missed a cut since 2013. 5. Tommy Fleetwood (T27 in 2017): Made his first cut last year at Birkdale, but he's seemingly made to contend at these events. All the ball flights plus an attitude perfect for winning either Open (he's been top five in each of the last two in the U.S) should play well at Carnoustie. 6. Rory McIlroy (Won in 2014): I did not see myself putting McIlroy, Garcia and Leishman in the top six of my rankings before doing the research, but it's not without a little punch behind it. McIlroy's average finish (average finish!) in the last five Opens (excluding missed cuts) is 3.3. He won in 2014 and has two other top-five finishes to go with a missed cut and a missed event (St. Andrews). "Toughest test in the Open rota" doesn't exactly scream "Rory McIlroy," but the data is the data. He was low amateur here in 2007. 7. Dustin Johnson (T2 in 2011): The Open might have to win him for Johnson to imbibe from the Claret Jug on Sunday. In my mind, D.J. has like 22 majors, but in reality he has just one. His closest call, technically, was in 2011 when he hit a ball out of bounds on the second nine on Sunday and Darren Clarke went on to win. The epitome of his Open experience, however, was in 2015 when he opened 65-69 at St. Andrews and led at the halfway point. Then he closed 75-75 and finished T49. 8. Jordan Spieth (Won in 2017): I don't know what to do with Spieth. He has two top-five finishes in his last three, including that dramatic victory last year. And yet I have more confidence in the press room going free of any "will Hideki win?" questions this week than I do in Spieth's putter. Still, he's an all-timer, and all-timers figure it out at some point. I just don't know if "at some point" will be at Carnoustie this week or in Hawaii in January 2019. 9. Justin Thomas (T53 in 2016): It's tough to have somebody in the top 10 who has never cracked the top 50 at an Open and only has two top 10s in majors ever, but Justin Thomas is not your typical somebody. If I'm putting this profile of player in my top 10, it's because I'm betting on talent, and he might have more of it than anyone in the game right now. He doesn't come in with a ton of momentum -- just one top 10 in his last seven PGA Tour events -- but he's still top 10 in strokes gained on approach shots, from tee to green and overall. 10. Zach Johnson (Won in 2015): Three top 10s in his last six tries at this event, and he has -- I can't believe this is a real stat! -- as many Claret Jugs as he does John Deere Classic victories. Average finish over his last five is 16.0. Only Garcia, McIlroy and Phil Mickelson have been better. 11. Jon Rahm (T44 in 2017): He's already proven he can win anywhere in the world. I think (I think) it's better for him if the weather whistles all week because he has all the shots, but I'm concerned about his mindset if he feels he's gotten the poor side of the draw. 12. Patrick Reed (T12 in 2016): I wanted to put Reed ahead of Day, I really did, but I just couldn't do it. Captain America swiping the jug and drinking the most American liquid fathomable -- Fireball, I presume -- from it before parading it around the streets of Paris in his green jacket in September in a Ryder Cup year is the kind of scenario I'm here for. Reed has top-five finishes in each of the last three majors, but no top 10s at the Open. It's difficult for me to reconcile Patrick Reed, elite major championship golfer, but it has kind of happened. 13. Justin Rose (T4 in 1998): He has (maybe surprisingly) not had the greatest career at this event. Rose has just two top 10s historically, and one of them came as an amateur in 1998 at Royal Birkdale. He did finish T12 here in 2007, though. Eyeball emoji. 14. Tiger Woods (Won in 2000, 2005, 2006): The three-time winner will benefit from driver being taken out of his hands. However, I'm not sure his game is sharp enough to win any of the biggest tournaments right now. Shinnecock took away my confidence. 15. Phil Mickelson (Won in 2013): May shoot 12 under to win by seven. May try to part the North Sea with one of his 3-irons. May just drop the filthiest cut shots humanity has ever seen and not worry about his score. Who knows. 16. Jason Day (T4 in 2015): Only one top 10 here in his career. He'll hit that 2-iron for days, though, on the baked out fairways upon which Brandt Sndeker (!) hit a 400-yard drive. 17. Henrik Stenson (Won in 2016): Backed his victory in 2016 with a T11 last year, and I would definitely have Stenson in my top 10 if not for an injury that caused him to pull out of the Scottish Open last week. I'm concerned enough to drop him this far. If he's fully healthy, though, he's in my top 10. 18. Adam Scott (2nd in 2012): Ended his run of four straight top 10s from 2012-15 with a pair of finishes outside the top 20 in the last two seasons. He hasn't missed a cut here since 2009, but he only has one top-10 finish in 15 starts on the PGA Tour so far this year. He's one of just four golfers (McIlroy, Garcia, Leishman) with at least three top 10s in the last five Opens. 19. Louis Oosthuizen (Won in 2010): He's had a curious history here. Two top twos (including a win at St. Andrews in 2010), but he's missed the last two cuts at Royal Troon and Royal Birkdale. Only one top 10 in his last 11 major championships, but I can't quit the swing. 20. Hideki Matsuyama (T6 in 2013): Not his best major, certainly, but he seems to be finding form with three straight top 20s on the PGA Tour after struggling with injury at the beginning of the season. No top 10s in his last four starts at The Open. 21. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (T4 in 2017): Speaking of top 10s, it feels like this guy has about five of them at this event. The reality, though, is that he has one, and it came last year at Royal Birkdale. He's kind of a poor man's Adam Scott (which, in reality, is not a very poor man). 22. Paul Casey (T3 in 2010): Casey is another guy it seems should have more top 10s at this event than he actually does. Currently No. 4 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained overall and is arguably having one of his better years maybe ever. 23. Alex Noren (T6 in 2017): Here for it. He's coming off a top 10 last year as well as a monstrous French Open victory, which is, I believe what the kids call trending. 24. Francesco Molinari (T9 in 2013): This isn't hard. 25. Ian Poulter (2nd in 2008): Only two made cuts in his last five Opens, but his average finish at those was 8.5. I know a lot of folks probably don't want Poulter to win a major. I want it more than maybe anything other than a Tiger-Phil playoff. Four top 20s in a row on the European Tour.<doc-sep>WILD CARD Jordan Spieth … Even though he's the defending champion, he's competing at Carnoustie for the first time and in a field that has exhibited much better form as a whole than he has over the last three months. Consider that he's gone seven starts (since the back-door solo third at the Masters) without a top-20 finish. The drought includes a T41 at THE PLAYERS and a missed cut at the U.S. Open. When humming along as he has for the majority of his career, he should be a target on courses like this week's that rewards guile and moxie, but in a week that favors bombers when he arrives without his A-game, it'd be surprising if he contends. NOTE: The remaining 135 golfers in the field of 156 are segregated as seen below. Those who competed professionally last week are noted. Of the 26 golfers who finished inside the top 25 at the 2017 Open Championship, 19 played the week prior. Champion Jordan Spieth did not, but the majority proves that sharpening the skill set immediately in advance was of value. CHALLENGERS If you'd prefer, label them as the snubs from the Power Rankings. Each could appear and few would argue. Ranked in order of Rob's confidence (* - competed last week) *Ian Poulter Tony Finau *Russell Knox *Andy Sullivan Tiger Woods (2000/2005/2006 champ) Webb Simpson *Matthew Fitzpatrick *Charley Hoffman Keegan Bradley Xander Schauffele Henrik Stenson (2016 champ; nursing a sore elbow) *Rafa Cabrera Bello *Kiradech Aphibarnrat *Lee Westwood Kevin Na Adam Scott *Matt Kuchar *Ryan Moore Jimmy Walker Charl Schwartzel Brandt Snedeker *Louis Oosthuizen (2010 champ; withdrew during the first round of the Scottish Open with a sore right shoulder) SLEEPERS Because it's a major, loosen the restraints as to who qualifies as a Sleeper. Ignore current world ranking, distant victories in majors and recent inclusion in team competition. Ranked in order of Rob's confidence (* - competed last week; ^ - debutant) Thorbjørn Olesen *Ryan Fox Russell Henley Emiliano Grillo *Chris Wood *Peter Uihlein *Alexander Björk *Paul Dunne Anirban Lahiri *Thomas Pieters *Dylan Frittelli Byeong Hun An *^Matt Wallace *Matthew Southgate Jason Dufner *Julian Suri *^Jazz Janewattananond *Hao Tong Li *Nicolas Colsaerts *Grant Forrest QUESTION MARKS This cuts both ways. For golfers who have yet to scale to a position from which they can disappoint, they remain full of promise. On the other side of the ledger are talents, many of whom household names, who present negatively for any number of reasons. The doubt includes, but is not limited to, form upon arrival, course fit, history in majors, overall career trajectory and relative inexperience in the face of higher expectations. ARROW UP Ranked in order of Rob's confidence (* - competed last week; ^ - debutant) *^Luke List ^Patrick Cantlay *Eddie Pepperell Brian Harman *Danny Willett *Chesson Hadley *Brandon Stone *^Jorge Campillo Shane Lowry *^Austin Cook Bubba Watson ^Beau Hossler Stewart Cink Charles Howell III Gary Woodland *^Jess Dantorp Michael Hendry Retief Goosen *^Kelly Kraft *Matt Jones *^Andrew Landry ^Ryan Armour *^Bronson Burgoon Adam Hadwin Yuta Ikeda *^Gavin Green ^Shota Akiyoshi Tom Lewis Sang-Hyun Park ^Minchel Choi ^Abraham Ancer ^Danthai Boonma Shaun Norris Kodai Ichihara *^Michael Kim *Sung Kang Jason Kokrak *^Erik van Rooyen *Jack Senior ^Ryuko Tokimatsu ^Brady Schnell *^Ashton Turner ARROW DOWN Ranked in order of Rob's confidence (* - competed last week; ^ - debutant) *Ross Fisher Jhonattan Vegas Daniel Berger *Cameron Smith Kevin Kisner *Martin Kaymer *Kyle Stanley *Padraig Harrington *Bryson DeChambeau (withdrew during the opening round of the John Deere Classic with soreness in his right shoulder) *Si Woo Kim *George Coetzee Pat Perez *Kevin Chappell Brendan Steele *Chez Reavie Oliver Wilson ^Marcus Kinhult ^Cameron Davis ^Lucas Herbert *Scott Jamieson *^Jordan L. Smith *Ernie Els Satoshi Kodaira *Patton Kizzire *Jonas Blixt *Hideto Tanihara *^Shubhankar Sharma *Brett Rumford *Fabrizio Zanotti *Zander Lombard *Bernhard Langer *Alexander Levy ^James Robinson *Tom Lehman *Yusaku Miyazato Rhys Enoch Masanori Kobayashi ^Haraldur Magnus ^Marcus Armitage ^Masahiro Kawamura ^Sean Crocker ^Thomas Curtis *Mark Calcavecchia David Duval *Sandy Lyle *Todd Hamilton *Darren Clarke AMATEURS It's been only three years since Paul Dunne shared the 54-hole lead in The Open Championship at St. Andrews as an amateur. He'd eventually tumble to T30 with a final-round 78, which isn't bad, but consider that he didn't finish inside the top-three alternates. With red numbers in their finales, Jordan Niebrugge (T6), Ashley Chesters (T12) and Ollie Schniederjans (T12) stole the thunder. The aggregate success also was an anomaly. In 2014, 2016 and 2017 combined, only Alfie Plant made the cut at The Open. He finished T62 last year. In the two recent editions of the championship at Carnoustie, only one amateur survived the cut: Rory McIlroy (T42) in 2007. Ranked in order of Rob's confidence (with World Amateur Golf Ranking; ^ - debutant) ^Nicolai Hojgaard (9) ^Jovan Rebula (55) ^Lin Yuxin (141) ^Sam Locke (439) NOTE: Joaquin Niemann and Doc Redman forfeited exemptions into The Open Championship when each turned pro earlier this year. Neither requalified. Paul Lawrie (back, foot), Bernd Wiesberger (wrist) and John Daly (knee) withdrew due to injuries. You're unlikely to find someone under the age of 25 who has any memory of the 1999 Open Championship at Carnoustie, so the youngest generation of golf fans can't comprehend the real-time emotion of Jean Van de Velde's meltdown on the final hole of regulation. For the rest of us, that still overshadows the fact that Van de Velde, Paul Lawrie and Justin Leonard completed regulation in a whopping 6-over 290. And while Lawrie had help en route to victory, even devotees of the sport might not know that he still owns the PGA TOUR record for the largest come-from-behind win. He was positioned 10 strokes back at the conclusion of 54 holes. There's no question that Carnoustie's reputation precedes itself. The scoring average on the par 71 in 1999 was 5.816 over par, which remains the highest in relation to par of all courses since records were first maintained in earnest in 1983. The second-easiest hole that week was the par-3 13th, which averaged 0.029 strokes over par. However, you're less likely to know that when it returned to host the 2007 Open, it ranked as the easiest major that season at "just" 2.381 strokes over par. Before Padraig Harrington emerged from the playoff with Sergio Garcia in 2007, the duo completed regulation in a more acceptable 7-under 277. That target is in play this week with consistently challenging winds from a prevailing westerly direction. The course will play as expected. Spitting rain can't be ruled out at any time and daytime high temperatures probably won't touch 70 degrees, so this is poised to be a textbook Open Championship in terms of conditions. Then there's the matter of the course itself. It's as dry as it's ever been, so it's going to play long. With strategic bunkering that adds to the premium on club selection, and with only three par 3s, the longest hitters have the advantage. The course tips at 7,402 yards but has just two par 5s. When Harrington won, he found 37 of the 60 fairways (ranking T37) and 47 greens in regulation (T12), but led the field in scrambling in going 19-for-25. A low, boring ball flight combined with the experience and patience of a veteran will likely define this week's champion. Total prize money of $10.5 million will be distributed of which the winner will receive $1.89 million. In addition to innumerable spoils and a spot cemented into the history of the sport, he'll also take possession of the Claret Jug, 600 FedExCup points and a five-year PGA TOUR exemption. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton reviews and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings (Open Championship) TUESDAY*: Power Rankings (Barbasol), Fantasy Insider, Facebook Live WEDNESDAY: One & Done (Open Championship); One & Done (Barbasol) * - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.<doc-sep>
Featuring what is clearly the toughest course in all of major golf, the 147th Open Championship will be contested at Carnoustie this week for the first time since 2007. We've seen everything at this tremendous course: triple bogeys to lose, double bogeys to win, over par, under par and even par. We've seen Sergio Garcia cry. In case you happened to forget. And what is particularly interesting is that this year's tournament is going to be even different than all the rest. A dry, fast course has golfers questioning how they're going to play this track and what the proper strategy is for attacking it. It remains to be seen whether parking lot conditions help or hurt scores, but they will certainly affect the type of golfer who plays well here. Let's take a look at a few who we think are going to have great (or terrible) weeks. Head over here if you are looking for a full list of odds for the entire 2018 British Open field. 2018 British Open picks, predictions Kyle Porter, golf writer Winner -- Jordan Spieth (18-1): I know, I know. He only has four top 10s on the season and is ranked No. 175 in putting. But he's an all-timer, and all-timers always figure it out. I'm encouraged by the fact that he recently took a good chunk of time away from golf to clear his mind. If this turns into a brawl, maybe nobody in the game is tougher or better suited imaginatively to win a second straight Claret Jug. Top 10 lock -- Marc Leishman (40-1): I wanted to pick him as my winner given his three top sixes in the last four Opens (including a playoff loss at St. Andrews in 2015), but I just couldn't do it. Still, his ball flight with long irons and recent success at Opens has me feeling good about his chances to mix it up once again at this tournament. Sleeper -- Zach Johnson (80-1): The toughest course in the rota that has been shortened because of fast fairways and will require an imaginative short game. Yeah, I'll take a two-time major winner who won at St. Andrews and has one of the great wedge games of all time at 100-1. Top 5 in order: Jordan Spieth, Marc Leishman, Rickie Fowler, Eddie Pepperell, Rory McIlroy Bold prediction: Phil Mickelson shoots 80. I think yleis how the Summer of Phil ends -- with a missed cut and an 80 at the hardest Open course. It hasn't necessarily been a pretty last month, though it has been entertaining. An 80 here would cap it beautifully (or not so beautifully). Lowest round: 65 (-6) Winning score: 279 (-5) | Winner's Sunday score: 69 (-2) So who will win the 2018 Open Championship, and what massive long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to find out and see the full leaderboard from the model that nailed the Masters. Chip Patterson, writer Winner -- Tommy Fleetwood (20-1): He's got all of the shots and the course record at Carnoustie -- though it won't do him that much good considering the current baked out conditions don't match what he saw during a 63 at the Dunhill Links Championship last year -- and I think he's ready to have a breakthrough moment here to claim his first major championship win. If Fleetwood can keep it in the fairway off the tee, it shouldn't take long for him to get dialed in on approach shots and around the greens. Top 10 lock -- Sergio Garcia (30-1): This is all based on history because Sergio has not been in top form this season. Since 2001, Garcia has 10 top-10 finishes in The Open including a runner-up playoff loss to Padraig Harrington here at Carnoustie in 2007. With the conditions mentioned above, there's limits to what we draw from that course experience but there's no doubting his tendency to finish near the top of the leaderboard at this event. Sleeper -- Zach Johnson (80-1): I wanted to go deeper on the odds board, where I think there is some intriguing value with Webb Simpson at 100-1 or Eddie Pepperell at 200-1, but cannot bypass the 2015 Open champion here. His short game is outstanding and with the long hitters having their advantage somewhat negated by the firm fairways there's a chance to win this after a 67-64 showing on the weekend at the fifth major, the John Deere Classic.