We had a bunch of cheap value options in Week 1 that resulted in a lot of chalk plays going off producing high DraftKings scores and high cash lines. It was easy to build lineups and life was good. Week 2 will be a return to reality where it will be much more difficult to fit in the players you want. Regardless, the methodology remains the same for our cash game lineups, get as many targets and touches as possible from players that are in favorable matchups. On to Week 2 of the NFL season! Contest: Win a FantasyPros Subscription for LIFE >> Quarterback Alex Smith (WAS): $6,000 vs. IND I was undecided in my early look core play at QB on Wednesday and am still debating between a trio of QBs all priced at about the same price point. My list has dwindled down to Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo and Smith. Right now, I am still leaning toward Smith, who I was very high on coming into the season. He played very well in Week 1 in a game that the Redskins took their foot off the gas in the second half. Smith will make his home debut for the Redskins in Week 2 against the Colts in a game that has a fairly high 46-point Vegas total and a QB on the other side in Andrew Luck that should be capable of keeping it close, so Smith and company can keep the pedal to the metal. Other Notables: Running Backs Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $7,000 @ ATL McCaffrey was a popular target in Week 1 and posted solid but unspectacular numbers with 50 rushing yards and six catches for 45 yards. The coaching staff continues to talk about getting McCaffrey more touches, and that could become a reality in Week 2 against the Falcons. The Falcons will be without two key defensive players on a defense that was already susceptible to pass-catching backs ranking dead last in receptions allowed and 28th in receiving yards by backs last season. McCaffrey could also see more looks come his way with TE Greg Olsen out for at least a few weeks. And that is just talking about his receiving prowess, not to mention the 12-18 carries he should get against the Falcons run defense that ranks 25th DVOA after Week 1. Dion Lewis (TEN): $5,000 vs. HOU Surprising or not, Lewis was the leading back in the Titans backfield in Week 1 with 16 carries for 75 yards and a rushing score to go along with five catches on eight targets for 35 yards. Lewis is a game-script independent back who will get work whether the Titans lead or trail the Texans in Week 2. He comes with a very reasonable price tag for his expected volume. Much like McCaffrey, Lewis could also benefit with more targets in the passing game due to their TE Delanie Walker going down with an injury. Other Notables: Wide Receivers Antonio Brown (PIT): $8,800 vs. KC Be sure to monitor QB Ben Roethlisberger’s status leading up to game time on Sunday as he has missed a couple of practices this week. If Roethlisberger doesn’t start, then that will be a major change to my cash game roster construction as it puts Brown out of play. That said, I fully expect Big Ben to play and, if he does, then fading Brown could be a big mistake. Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense typically play better at home and will welcome the Chiefs to Pittsburgh in Week 2. The Chiefs offense showed its explosiveness in Week 1 and as a result the Chiefs/Steelers matchup as the highest Vegas total on the Week 2 slate. Brown tallied nine receptions for 93 yards and a score on 16 targets in the opener and should see similarly high volume against a Chiefs defense that just allowed a similar player (Antonio Brown-lite if you will), Keenan Allen, to scorch them for eight catches, 108 yards, and one touchdown. Fade at your own risk. Tyreek Hill (KC): $7,600 @ PIT There are not a ton of WR options that blow me away on the Week 2 slate. However, Brown and Ty “Don’t Call Me Tyreek” Hill on the other side of the field are the two that do. Hill is a threat to score every time he touches the ball as he showed in Week 1 with three TDs against the Chargers. Mahomes seems locked into Hill with eight targets in Week 1. The game has the highest Vegas total on the slate and, as long as Roethlisberger plays, neither team will be able to rest on a big lead in what should be a back and forth game. Meanwhile, the Steelers are not immune to allowing big plays as they ranked 25th in yards per reception and 30th in TDs allowed to opposing WRs last season. Other Notables: Tight End George Kittle (SF): $3,800 vs. DET I love to get a cheap, high-target option at TE whenever possible. Last week, it was Jack Doyle, this week my attention turns to Kittle. Kittle saw nine targets in Week 1 hauling in five of them for 90 yards against a good Vikings defense. Kittle and the 49ers will return home in Week 2 to face the Lions who just get shredded on Monday night by the Jets. The Lions allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs last season. Kittle should already be locked into a high volume of targets, but that number could go even higher if Marquise Goodwin is unable to play on Sunday. It might also be a two-TE week with so many robust value options. Other Notables: Defense Vikings (MIN): $2,600 @ GB Aaron Rodgers still has not practiced this week as of Thursday. He will probably give it a go, but will be at less than 100 percent. The Vikings defense is a solid option even if Rodgers plays given their ridiculously low salary for a top-flight unit. However, if Rodgers is somehow ruled out for Sunday’s, matchup then click the lock button on the Vikings defense in every lineup. Other Notables: Broncos (DEN): $3,300 vs. OAK Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >> Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.<doc-sep>NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2 Well, we crushed it last week. Yeah, yeah, yeah… Blah, blah, blah… Nobody reads the intros. Here are my Week 2 main slate plays for DraftKings and Fanduel: Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site. Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here. Check back Saturday for the updates. I’ll see you in the comments section. Quarterbacks [DK: QB12] & [FD: QB6] Most of my quarterback exposure will be tethered to the Kansas City @ Pittsburgh game, which sports the highest over/under of the week (53.5, highest by 4.5-points) and presents some shootout potential with a spread of 4.5-points. Both teams ranked top-10 in points scored last year and came into the season with a bottom-10-ranked (projected) secondary. (Starting CB Joe Haden is also questionable for the Steelers.) Since 2014 (including postseason), Roethlisberger averages 24.0 fantasy points per game at home and only 14.7 fantasy points per game on the road. That might be the craziest stat in all of fantasy football, and significant too, over a whopping 65-game-sample. He also averages 1.7 more fantasy points per game more when Le’Veon Bell has been inactive over this stretch (14 games). He’s banged up but I’m not terribly concerned (neither is Vegas, with their total climbing in recent days) and actually hoping that might depress ownership. Over this span, he averages 23.0 fantasy points per game when listed on the injury report (five games). Mahomes has been a top-four-graded quarterback in each of his two career starts. He also has some underappreciated upside as runner, totaling 12 carries across these two starts and 22 rushing touchdowns in his final two years of college (more than ). Other Quarterbacks & Notes: I also like the and suspect the San Francisco/Detroit game is going overlooked. UPDATE: Bortles is a strong play on FD, averaging 4.5 more fantasy points per game with off the field last year. I like quite a bit and the stacks look obvious. I think that game goes well above the O/U and would bet draws almost zero ownership. Really, I just think I’m going to have one of Roethlisberger or Mahomes in 70 percent of my lineups. On the other 30 percent I’ll just get weird with various stacks. From what I’ve seen, everyone’s lineups look the same and they all look really great. Running Backs [DK: RB5, FD: RB5] (@ Bills) Last year, Gordon averaged 19.4 expected fantasy points per game in weeks off of the injury report (which would have ranked behind only Le’Veon Bell). Earlier in the offseason, Chargers HC Anthony Lynn told ESPN reporter Dan Graziano that one of his biggest regrets of 2017 was “not getting Gordon more work in the passing game.” Lynn quickly rectified that error in Week 1, targeting Gordon 12 times – and Gordon too delivered, totaling 102 receiving yards. (He was also handed 15 touches on the ground.) On this sort of workload, Gordon should be closer to neck and neck in pricing with and rather than the $1,800+ differential we find on DraftKings. When factoring in the matchup, Gordon’s value becomes all the more apparent. The Chargers are favored by 7.5-points against a Bills team that lost by 45 points in Week 1. Over Buffalo’s last 10 games, they’ve allowed 33.2 fantasy points per game (most) to opposing running backs as well as 4.82 yards per carry on the ground (most). The only concern is this game getting too out of hand to quickly and coming in too early in relief. UPDATE: Read this thread. Unlike with Gurley, Los Angeles has been quick to take out Gordon in blowouts. I think this is a legitimate concern for Gordon this week but I still don’t think it will have any significant impact on my ownership percentages. [DK: RB6, FD: RB8] (@ Falcons) McCaffrey’s Week 1 volume may have seemed disappointing against the pace-sucking Cowboys but McCaffrey actually ranked top-five among running backs in expected fantasy points per snap and expected fantasy point market share. Per HC Ron Rivera, the ideal plan this week is still to give McCaffrey between 21 and 30 touches. Since Week 1 of last season, McCaffrey ranks 17th among all players in targets (122). He’s arguably the best pass-catching running back in the league, and now he draws the perfect matchup for a pass-catching running back. Since 2016, Atlanta has surrendered 13.6 receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (most by +1.5). They’ll also be without LB Deion Jones and S Keanu Neal. Atlanta saw a league-high 132 targets last season, and either Jones or Neal were the primary defender (in coverage) on 47 percent of those targets. McCaffrey also benefits from absence. Last year, he averaged 12.6 expected- and 12.7 actual fantasy points per game with Olsen on the field, but 16.3 and 16.1, respectively, with him out of the lineup. [DK: RB8, FD: RB9] (vs. Chiefs) Conner saw terrific volume in Week 1, playing on 100 percent of the team’s snaps and totaling 31 carries with five receptions (on six targets). For perspective, there were only five instances of a player totaling at least 36 touches in a single game last year, and two of those were from Bell. Conner was also terrific on those touches, scoring 35 fantasy points, or second-most among running backs. Week 1 was a tremendous follow-up to a great preseason from Conner, when he ranked as our highest-graded running back of 133 qualifying. I suspect Conner’s price-tag should be much closer to Le’Veon Bell himself than to where he ranks in Week 2 – primarily because there’s been almost no difference between Bell and his back-ups over the past four years. Over this span, Bell has averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game and 26.7 touches per game. In the 16 games Bell has been inactive, his primary backup has averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game and 23.5 touches per game. Both of those numbers would have ranked top-three at the position last year. For all of the reasons I like Roethlisberger’s matchup, I also like the matchup for Conner, who should continue to be used heavily as a pass-catcher. Injury-Related Values is an exceedingly strong play with out. The matchup doesn’t look great but offers one of the best touch-per-dollar values on the slate. Freeman played on just three snaps between Weeks 9-11 last year. In those three games, averaged 19.7 carries, 1.0 targets, 81.0 total yards, 1.3 total touchdowns, and 16.8 fantasy points per game. The pass game volume was bizarre and I’m not sure what to make of that, but he’s still a great play. If and/or are out for Week 2, that would also make one of the best plays of the slate. New England’s wide receivers draw a brutal matchup against the best cornerback duo in the league (Jacksonville), which should funnel more targets to White. White saw a target (eight total) once every four routes during the preseason. In Week 1, he led the team in targets with nine. If is out, is a good (but maybe not as great) play. In the 2.25 quarters Jacksonville was without Fournette last week, Yeldon saw all 13 of the team’s running back carries and all five of the team’s running back targets. If over a full game that extrapolates to 23.1 carries and 8.9 targets. Still, he’s the most expensive of the three and this will be a game-time decision for a 4:25 PM game. He’ll be more of a late-swap option for me than someone I’ll be jamming into lineups on Sunday morning. Other Running Backs & Notes – I also think people are over-looking and this week and I like as a leverage play / insurance policy to the majority of my Week 2 lineups. UPDATE: Not much has changed here. I still really like my main three running backs, Coleman, and Yeldon. It’s looking like Michel and Burkhead will play for New England, though White is still sort of in play. I really like too, in a game I think Houston smashes (much more so than Vegas). Lewis out-snapped Lewis 49 to 20 last week, drawing 16 carries and eight targets, with all of that coming in the final three-quarters of the game. Peterson is still going unfairly overlooked in a game Washington is favored by 6.0. Last week Peterson saw 26 carries, three targets, and all of the team’s three running back opportunities inside the 10-yard line. That’s rock-solid RB1 volume. Wide Receivers [DK: WR1, FD: WR1] (vs. Chiefs) Okay, clearly, I like the Pittsburgh game stack. However, if I’m wrong and Roethlisberger is actually sort of banged up, and not playing up his injury, it might be worth upping some exposure to as a leverage play. Anyway, I do think Brown is worth forcing into lineups. averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game in 2017, which is the most by any non- wide receiver over the past two seasons. Okay, keep that in mind. Now, over Brown’s last six full games, he averages 32.4 fantasy points per game. In the 14 games Bell has missed since 2015, he averages 28.1 fantasy points per game. ran 86.7 percent of his routes from the slot in Week 1, suggesting a tough draw this week against Kendall Fuller, our No. 1-graded slot cornerback from a season ago. matchup on the perimeter looks much softer, however. Kansas City’s starting perimeter cornerbacks are Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick, who are both not good (each ranking bottom-20 of 124-qualifying cornerbacks in yards allowed per route in coverage last season) and playing out of position. Both have spent at least two thirds of their snaps lined up in the slot over the past two seasons. Brown could be a slate-breaker this week. Of course, I also like running it back with , who actually isn’t even expensive from a projected volume standpoint this week. Since the preseason, Hill is being targeted on one-third of his routes and represents 50 percent of Mahomes’ touchdowns and 56 percent of his yardage over this stretch. CB Joe Haden’s absence could be another big boost for him this week. [DK: WR15, FD: WR21] (@ Saints) Landry is only a decent value if he was still being used in the low-upside / low-aDOT role he saw in 2017 (when he still managed to finish fourth-best at the position in fantasy points per game). However, his usage looks to be far better this year. In Week 1, Landry totaled 27.9 expected fantasy points, 185 yards in air, and four deep targets in Week 1. His 2017 highs in each stat were 24.7, 124, and two, respectively. (He also led the team in expected last week with 0.7.) The rapport between he and Taylor, that had been hyped up all offseason, appears to be real, and now he’s being used in a role that’s closer to how new OC Todd Haley used in 2017 than how he’s ever been used in the past. The matchup works more towards his favor as well. WR projects to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore who struggled in Week 1 but was our No. 8-graded cornerback in 2017. Somehow Landry is being overlooked this week, despite New Orleans allowing to post 417 passing yards and four touchdowns on 28 attempts in Week 1. Editors Note: has been ruled out for Week 2 Cheap Wide Receivers There are really a ton of cheap wide receivers to like this week. Right now, it’s looking like all of , , , , , , , , and are all solidly in play on at least one of the two sites. I’ll update on Saturday with my favorites after more injury news comes out. Other Wide Receivers & Notes: UPDATE: is out for Week 2.<doc-sep>
A three-man stack is the backbone of this week’s DraftKings GPP lineup, but they’re supplemented by some heavy hitters who include the game’s best receiver and a stud back. I break one of the rules of thumb with a game stack featuring running backs from each of the opposing squads, though, when you see the backs it will become clear why the rule was broken. Contest: Win a FantasyPros Subscription for LIFE >> Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): $6,000 vs. Lions Dante Pettis (WR – SF): $4,000 vs. Lions George Kittle (TE – SF): $3,800 vs. Lions In Matt Patricia’s last game as a defensive coordinator, Nick Foles completed 28 of 43 passes for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception en route to winning the Super Bowl MVP. In his first game as the head coach of the Lions, his defense returned Sam Darnold’s first pass in an NFL regular season game for a pick six. After that, however, Darnold was rarely frazzled and completed 15 of his next 20 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Garoppolo’s more seasoned than a rookie making his first NFL start, and the Lions are on the road in San Francisco for this contest. Jimmy G had a rough go of it in his first game this season completing only 15 of 33 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, but that game was in Minnesota against a Vikings defense that’s significantly better than Detroit’s. In six starts with the 49ers, Garoppolo has completed 63.4% of his passes, averaged 300.5 yards passing, and tossed seven touchdowns along with seven interceptions. He shined last year but struggled in a tough matchup in Week 1. I’m willing to give him a pass. He’s priced outside the top-10 quarterbacks, and he’s leading the six-point favorite 49ers in a game with an over/under total of 48 points, per Pinnacle, leaving the 49ers with an implied team over/under total of 27 points. Sign me up for exposure to that. As you’ve deduced from the inclusion of a pair of his teammates above, I’m buying into them as well. Marquise Goodwin suffered a deep thigh bruise that forced him out of last week’s contest for a bit. He did return, but he ultimately exited again. His availability for this weekend will require monitoring (he didn’t practice Thursday and is considered day to day still), but the injury helped push Pettis into second in snaps played among wide receivers for the 49ers last week. He played nearly three-quarters of the team’s offensive snaps, and he hauled in the team’s only touchdown on a 22-yard pass. The rookie was targeted five times and turned them into a 2-61-1 line. The 49ers spent the 44th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft to secure Pettis’ services. While he never eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in a season in his four years at Washington, Pettis hauled in 116 passes for 1,583 yards and a whopping 22 touchdowns his last two years — 26 games — in college combined, per Sports-Reference. He didn’t take long to show off his nose for the end zone in his NFL career. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Pettis was in route on 57.6% of the 49ers’ pass plays and was in the slot at a 44.4% clip. The usage makes sense given Lance Zierlein’s scouting report that you can check out here. Pettis makes for a cheap stack partner with his signal caller. Even cheaper, though, is tight end, George Kittle. Kittle was excellent in the season opener, and there’s a good chance he’s the chalkiest option at tight end this week. He’s led the 49ers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in his last two games (the last game of last year’s regular season and the opener last week). The second-year tight end is riding a four-game streak of besting 50 yards receiving or finding pay dirt. Using this trio as a stack taps into San Francisco’s appealing over/under total while also freeing up tons of salary for studs elsewhere. Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $9,500 vs. Browns Duke Johnson Jr. (RB – CLE): $4,200 @ Saints Usually, it’s ill-advised to use running backs from opposing teams on the same roster. However, there are always exceptions to rules. This is an exception. Kamara’s a do-it-all explosive back who is completely game-script proof.