1 of 32 Mark Humphrey/Associated Press Kyler Murray, Quarterback, Oklahoma Deadly accurate quarterback comparison: Somewhere between Modern Fran Tarkenton and Miniature Marcus Mariota By now, you probably already have an opinion about Kyler Murray: He’s the next Russell Wilson, or fake Russell Wilson, or new-and-improved Russell Wilson, or you wish everyone would stop comparing him to Russell Wilson; he’s a future All-Pro, future Beloit Snappers outfielder, future Toronto Argonaut, and so on and so on. So let’s focus on the Arizona Cardinals instead of trying to change anyone’s mind about Murray. The Cardinals offensive line was miserable last year, and they only made modest upgrades in the offseason. Their best receiver is a Hall of Famer who should probably already be there. The defense isn’t bad, but it won’t help produce any 16-12 victories while Murray learns on the job the way the Legion of Boom supported a young Wilson. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is unproven, and the success rate jumping from college guru to NFL coach is discouraging. Rookie quarterbacks on teams such as the Cardinals, no matter how tall or experienced they are, often end up running for their lives, suffering injuries and developing bad habits that can cause their franchises to grow impatient and quickly sour on them. For further evidence, see Josh Rosen. The decision to entrust Murray with the keys to the Cardinals franchise, coupled with Kingsbury’s hire and the quick hook for Rosen, is so unprecedented that it’s impossible to grade like just another first overall pick. The Cardinals are the kid who brought a working nuclear reactor to a science fair full of ant farms and baking-soda volcanos. Bold and potentially brilliant? Of course. But you don’t award a blue ribbon for a potential meltdown. So let’s grade the Cardinals’ offseason instead. They didn’t address their offensive line or skill positions aggressively enough to feather the nest for Murray. They still haven’t pulled the trigger on a Rosen trade (though rumors are brewing). They sought defensive upgrades at an Atlanta Falcons flea market, of all places. Murray has the tools to be a one-of-a-kind NFL superstar and change both the fortunes of his franchise and the way quarterback prospects are perceived. But the Cardinals need to do a lot more if they want to make that happen. Grade: C-<doc-sep>The 2019 NFL draft is underway. The long-awaited Kyler Murray question has been answered (congrats, Cardinals fans), and many more selections are still to come. To help you make sense of all the Round 1 chaos, here are Danny Kelly’s grades for each pick. Check back here throughout Thursday night as we continually update this post with each pick. Here we go! I’ve been saying it for the past three months, and I’ll say it again: Fortune favors the bold. The Cardinals refused to submit to the “sunk cost” fallacy here after using a top-10 pick on quarterback Josh Rosen last year, and they selected a potential franchise-changing player in Murray. The Heisman winner and first-team AP All-American is a historical outlier at just 5-foot-10, but he has the skill set to develop into a top-tier NFL passer: He can play in structure and improvise, has a strong arm, throws with touch, has human-joystick agility and explosiveness as a runner, and makes good decisions. Murray is a perfect fit for new head coach and play-caller Kliff Kingsbury’s wide-open offense and has the talent to elevate everyone around him. While he’s relatively raw, with just 17 collegiate starts on his résumé, he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the nation at all three levels of the field and posted the top independent QB rating under pressure among draft-eligible passers. In an ideal world, the Cardinals wouldn’t be using back-to-back first-rounders on quarterbacks, so I have to ding them in the value category (though Arizona may recoup at least a little draft capital if they trade Rosen). But if Murray turns out to be the type of quarterback I expect him to be—a dynamic and prolific downfield thrower who confounds defenses with his Tarik Cohen–esque speed and agility as a runner—no one will look back at this pick and complain about the cost. GRADE: A 2. San Francisco 49ers: Edge Nick Bosa, Ohio State This is a no-brainer for the 49ers. Bosa is a perfect scheme-and-need fit for coordinator Robert Saleh’s defense. (Note: Bosa’s brother, Joey, plays in a very similar system with the Chargers under Gus Bradley, and has done all right for himself.) Nick pairs an elite first step with powerful hands that chop, swipe, and punch away block attempts by offensive linemen. He has the speed to get to the edge, the flexibility to turn the corner and get to the quarterback, and the power to bull-rush straight through opponents. He’s a strong, active run defender too. Overall, the Niners are getting an aggressive defensive end and a plug-and-play day one starter. Adding Bosa to a group that already includes the newly acquired Dee Ford and interior stalwart DeForest Buckner should give San Francisco one of the most disruptive defensive lines in football, both in 2019 and beyond. It’s tough to quibble with the value here, either, as they’re grabbing my top-ranked player in this class and a future star at a premier position. GRADE: A+ 3. New York Jets: DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama The Ringer’s 2019 NFL Draft Guide In-depth scouting reports, mock drafts, and more analysis from Danny Kelly and our other NFL staff writers Williams is a powerful interior lineman with extraordinary quickness and strength. The 2018 first-team AP All-American shoots out of his stance with shocking speed and easily discards would-be blockers with strong, perfectly timed swipes, clubs, and swim moves that leave linemen grasping at clouds of dust. He’s a top-tier pass rusher and dominant run defender who racked up 8.0 sacks and 19.5 tackles for a loss last season. He has a nonstop motor and brings the versatility to line at multiple spots on the line. Going with Williams here means the Jets will have to keep looking elsewhere for a dedicated edge-rushing presence, but I’ve got absolutely no problem with their choice. Williams is one of my favorite players in this draft—he has the potential to be a high-impact player early in his career, and his ability to slice through the offensive line and make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable will be a major boon for coordinator Gregg Williams’s defense. GRADE: A+ Well, we’ve got our first shocking pick. The Raiders will likely be roundly mocked for reaching on Ferrell, but he’s the no. 6 overall player on my board for a reason: He has a high floor as a pass rusher and run defender and should be a plug-and-play starter on Oakland’s edge. The 2018 AP first-team All-American and winner of the Ted Hendricks Award for college football’s top defensive end has a solid, muscular frame, with long arms and a springy first step. He lacks elite bend at the top of his rush, but employs power and fundamental tool set of moves that keep offensive linemen off balance. He notched 11.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for a loss in 2018. He’s a perfect fit in Paul Guenther’s 4-3 scheme. That said, I have to ding the Raiders slightly for not maximizing value here. Ferrell was largely expected to come off the board sometime in the teens or maybe even 20s, so it’s very possible that the Raiders could have traded back and still gotten their man. GRADE: B Related The Race to Make the NFL Draft an Exact Science 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Devin White, LSU The last off-ball linebacker to be a top-five pick was Aaron Curry, whom the Seahawks selected in 2009. That didn’t work out for Seattle, but the NFL is a different league in 2019. White’s a prototype for the modern linebacker, with a combination of speed and physicality that makes him a factor against both the run and pass. The first-team AP All-American and Butkus Award winner (given to the top linebacker in the country) can do a little of everything, whether that’s coming downhill to stop the run, dropping back in coverage, or rushing the passer. White plays an aggressive, physical brand of football that rubs off on his teammates and is a tone-setter as a hitter. He may need to become more disciplined at the next level, though, as opponents can use the former Tiger’s feisty downhill style against him in the play-action game or with misdirection. Overall, though, I absolutely love White’s potential when paired up with All-Pro linebacker Lavonte David in Todd Bowles’s new hybrid defense. Tampa Bay gets a slight downgrade here based on positional value and potential opportunity cost—Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, and a handful of high-upside players at multiple premium positions were still on the board—but I think White fits that defense nicely and should be an impact player from day one. GRADE: B+ 6. New York Giants: QB Daniel Jones, Duke I’d liked pretty much every pick in this draft ... until the Giants turned in their card. Jones has the physical makeup and moldable traits that you look for at quarterback, with good size, athleticism, adequate arm strength, and accuracy in the short and intermediate area. He also brings Josh Allen–lite speed as a runner—he’s capable of breaking away from defenders if he gets into daylight. But his struggles in a few crucial categories casts doubt on his ability to develop into a starting-caliber quarterback: He displayed questionable decision-making, anticipation, and deep accuracy at Duke, and he now faces a steep learning curve as he transitions to the pros after running the Blue Devils’ RPO-heavy offense. His career statistics in that scheme are, let’s say, less than encouraging: Jones averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt, finished with a 60 percent completion rate, and threw 29 interceptions to go along with his 52 touchdowns in three seasons as a starter. Jones came in at 100 on my big board, so clearly I’m not enamored of his value. He has some tools, but he’s a major project who doesn’t stand out in any particular area. On the bright side, I like the fit if only because he doesn’t have to start right away. He’ll have a chance to sit and learn from Eli Manning, which gives him better odds at turning into a starter. GRADE: D-<doc-sep>After months of studying prospects’ tape and reading mock drafts, the 2019 NFL draft is finally here. As many expected, the Cardinals took QB Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick, and the 49ers took DE Nick Bosa with the second pick. Below is our instant analysis and grades for every Round 1 pick. 1. Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray This puts a lot of egg on GM Steve Keim’s face, as last year’s costly first-round pick, Josh Rosen (whom, it should be noted, would be rated higher than Murray on SOME teams’ boards) will likely be dealt for pennies on the dollar. And there was already egg on Keim’s face to begin with, as he fired last year’s new head coach, Steve Wilks, after just one season, replacing him with the offensive-minded ex-Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury. Keim would diminish the Kingsbury hire by not drafting Murray, whom Kingsbury believes is a perfect fit for his new-age offense. Murray’s ceiling is that of a Russell Wilson Plus. Murray is quicker and faster than Wilson, plus Murray has the livelier arm. Also, like Wilson, Murray is a tremendous touch thrower and out-of-pocket player. The question is whether, at 5' 10", Murray can consistently play from within the pocket, which is mandatory for NFL success, no matter how electric a QB might be at scrambling. Like any mobile QB, Murray must fight the urge to flee the pocket too quickly or too often. His legs must be used as a resource, not a crutch. GRADE: B 2. San Francisco 49ers: DE Nick Bosa The Niners forced seven turnovers in 2018, four fewer than the league’s previous all-time low. That’s staggering, given that they primarily run a traditional Seahawks-style zone scheme, where players keep the action in front of them and rally to the ball. With this approach, a lack of turnovers stems especially from your pass rush failing to disrupt the quarterback. The Niners, who rely on a four-man rush and generated no pressure off the edges last year, took a huge step earlier this offseason by trading for Kansas City’s Dee Ford. Adding Bosa could make them the NFL’s fastest-rising defense in 2019. He’ll likely align outside, opposite Ford and with underrated long-armed monster DeForest Buckner between them. But like his brother Joey, Nick Bosa can also rush from inside in obvious passing situations. The Niners now have a lot of weapons and options up front. GRADE: A 3. New York Jets: DT Quinnen Williams Unable to trade this pick, the Jets “settled” for whom many believe is the best player in this draft. Williams played multiple positions in Alabama’s high-level scheme, which will serve him well under new Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who likes to diversify. Williams was a fast-riser in 2018, but he draws rave reviews for his mechanics, particularly his hand usage. He obviously checks the size and quickness boxes, but the question is whether he has enough burst and twitch to be a consistent gap penetrator. Stylistically, Williams is very similar to Jets incumbent defensive lineman Leonard Williams. Leonard—who, it should be noted, is a free agent after this season, though one worth re-signing—may now find himself operating at defensive end once in a while, considering the Jets are still weak at this spot. GRADE: B 4. Oakland Raiders: DE Clelin Ferrell The Raiders, desperately needing an edge rusher after last year’s trade of Khalil Mack, had their choice of defensive ends. Somewhat shockingly, they took Clelin Ferrell, who dominated Alabama’s first-round prospect, Jonah Williams, in the national championship, but was deemed by some scouts as a “good at everything, great at nothing” guy. He is expected to be solid as a tightly aligned defensive end in base downs, but today’s NFL is about nickel, which defenses play nearly 70 percent of the time. Can Ferrell bend the edge there? He’d better. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther plays a lot of 2-deep coverages, especially in zone. That approach only works if your front four generates pressure. The Raiders already addressed defensive tackle last year, taking P.J. Hall (second round) and Maurice Hurst (fifth round). Some believed Ferrell translates more as a nickel defensive tackle. Clearly, the Raiders don’t. GRADE: D- 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Devin White Talk about a team having speed at linebacker. White is a classic undersized run-and-chase guy…just like the newly signed free agent Deone Bucannon, who played for new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles in Arizona. The beauty of this pick is it plays off last year’s pick of Vita Vea, a bigger-bodied athlete who can occupy blockers, keeping White and Bucannon clean. White flashed both as a designed blitzer and improvised blitzer at LSU. That interior pass-rushing prowess will be critical in Tampa Bay, as Bowles loves to pressure the quarterback up the middle. GRADE: B 6. New York Giants: QB Daniel Jones Only two first-round quarterbacks since 2005 have sat and learned from the bench their entire rookie year before becoming a franchise QB: Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Daniel Jones has much less raw talent than either of those two. But, like the man—or ManNING—Jones will soon replace, he thrives with clean pocket mechanics and traditional execution. Also like Manning, Jones’s game must be predicated on shrewd pre-snap reads, as he didn’t make a lot of late-in-the-progression throws or second-reaction plays at Duke. GRADE: C+ 7. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Josh Allen This is a great illustration of how the whole 3-4 vs. 4-3 discussion gets overblown. Allen is viewed as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and the Jags have as pure a 4-3 scheme as you’ll find. And that dichotomy does not matter because 3-4 and 4-3 in today’s NFL both have mostly the same gap-shooting rules, and the NFL is a nickel league, which usually means a 4-2 front. Bottom line: Allen is a raw edge bender, which he’ll do opposite lithe, unheralded star Yannick Ngakoue on third downs. (This also means superstar Calais Campbell will play inside on those downs.). Allen’s experience dropping into coverage at Kentucky could also put him in contention for a strongside linebacker role in base 4-3 scenarios, not unlike how the Broncos have used Von Miller over the years. GRADE: B+ 8. Detroit Lions: TE T.J. Hockenson Head coach Matt Patricia fired offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter in part because Cooter was not overly familiar with the Patriots-style scheme that Patricia wants to run. (We’ll soon find out if new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is.) Obviously, a Patriots-style scheme has plenty of room for a five-tool tight end. Hockenson might not be the next Rob Gronkowski (those would be unfair expectations to place upon any player), but like Gronk, he is both a high-level receiver and blocker. That gives the Lions schematic flexibility and helps a running game that, incredibly, has remained mostly dormant since Barry Sanders’s sudden retirement. The fact that Detroit signed ex-Steeler Jesse James for $10.5M guaranteed in free agency suggests they want to keep two tight ends on the field, which helps simplify the looks they’ll see from opposing defenses. GRADE: A 9. Buffalo Bills: DT Ed Oliver Most likely, the Bills saw this as a value pick. And after signing Star Lotulelei for big money in free agency last year, to pair with 2018 third-rounder Harrison Phillips and gifted (though mercurial) ex-Dolphin Jordan Phillips, they didn’t have a glaring need at defensive tackle. But outside, they badly need an edge rusher, as 2016 first-rounder Shaq Lawson is not that guy and Jerry Hughes could be in his last year with the club. That said, you can make room for a dynamic gap penetrator. Oliver relies on quickness and elusiveness within confined areas, which is a unique style of play. But considering his having had an up-and-down 2018 season and Buffalo not badly needing a defensive tackle, overall this is a high-risk, high-reward pick for a team looking to add talent in multiple places. GRADE: C 10. Pittsburgh Steelers (Trade with Denver Broncos): LB Devin Bush The Steelers almost never trade up, but in this case, trading up for Bush was an easy decision.<doc-sep>
The 2019 NFL Draft is officially underway, and we’re grading all of the picks in the first round as they happen. Picks will be graded on a number of factors, including value, need and scheme fit. We’ll also be offering analysis on all of the trades that go down on Thursday night. Some other resources that will help you follow along with the first round… – The Top 50 prospects in the draft and NFL player comparisons – Scouting reports for the Top 10 QBs in this year’s class – Everything you need to know about the 2019 draft in one graphic On to the picks and grades… 1. Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma Analysis: The only reason the grade isn’t an A+ is the Cardinals will likely have to trade a promising quarterback as a result of this pick. But Kyler Murray is a better prospect than Josh Rosen, so it makes sense for Arizona to make this move. Sure, he’s undersized, but his height was never an issue on film and the data suggests that heavier quarterbacks get injured more often than lighter ones. Murray will be labeled a scrambler by lazy analysts, but he’d be the best QB in this class even if he wasn’t the electric runner he is. Grade: A- 2. 49ers: Nick Bosa, Edge Ohio State Analysis: There was no need to overthink this: The 49ers had a need at edge rusher, and Nick Bosa is the most polished edge prospect to enter the league in years. It’s easy to compare Bosa to his brother Joey, but here’s a scary thought: Nick has even more power … and all the athletic traits we saw in Joey back in 2015. The 49ers’ pass rush is scary with Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner and, now, Bosa on the defensive line. Grade: A 3. Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama Analysis: The Jets tried to trade out of the No. 3 pick, but couldn’t find a partner and “settled” for the best defensive player in the draft. Williams is a nose tackle at heart, and that position isn’t typically one taken this high in the draft, but he’s a different breed. Williams is just too quick for interior offensive linemen. Single-block him, and he’ll push right through the line. Double-team him and he’ll split it with quickness. The Jets didn’t need necessarily fill a major need with this pick, but it would’ve been hard to pass up on the value. Grade: B+ 4. Raiders: Clelin Ferrell, Edge Clemson Analysis: In my final mock draft, I had the Raiders taking Clelin Ferrell … only it was with the 27th pick — NOT THE FOURTH OVERALL. I don’t care if the Raiders LOVED Ferrell, it’s unlikely he was a top-10 pick on any other team’s board. So why not trade down to take him? Especially with multiple teams itching to trade up for quarterbacks? Even if Ferrell turns out to be a good player, he could have been had later in the first round. Grade: F 5. Buccaneers: Devin White, LB LSU Analysis: Devin White is a good football player. The best linebacker in the class, even. He has tremendous tackling range and makes a difference in the passing game as a zone defender. BUT … linebacker isn’t exactly a position of great importance, and the Bucs had to use a premium pick to get him. Why not trade down and hope he falls to you — and just take Michigan’s Devin Bush as a consolation if he doesn’t? Grade: D 6. Giants: Daniel Jones, QB Duke Analysis: I like Daniel Jones. I really do. He’s a smart quarterback who’s poised in the pocket and — wait for it — he’s sneaky athletic. At the very least, he’ll be a decent NFL starter. But his ceiling isn’t much higher than that, and if you’re using a top pick on a quarterback, you want a guy with top-10 talent. I’m not sure Jones has it. I would have been more impressed with this pick at 17. I would have been FAR more impressed with a trade for Josh Rosen, who is a far better prospect. Grade: C 7. Jaguars: Josh Allen, Edge Kentucky Analysis: Thanks to some questionable decisions by teams ahead of them, the Jaguars ended up with one of the elite pass rushing prospects in this class. He’s also a versatile defender who can drop back into coverage and hold up just fine.