Once again, the Arrowhead Pride staff went a perfect 12 for 12 picking the Chiefs to defeat the Broncos in Denver. We’re too cool. Let’s start this week with the FanPulse predictions: FanPulse is a survey of fans across the NFL powered by SurveyMonkey. Each week, we send 32 polls to 100-plus plugged-in fans from each team. Arrowhead Pride FanPulse predicts the Chiefs to win by 6 Big Cat Country FanPulse predicts the Jaguars to win by 2 You can sign up for AP FanPulse here to take the weekly survey. Using FanPulse a little deeper, we can see the Jaguars fans’ level of confidence with the direction their organization is going into Week 5: Jaguars fans are confident with the direction their franchise is going into week 5, with 85% agreeing with the direction in which the team is going. pic.twitter.com/pHgQNKOu5f — Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) October 4, 2018 And let’s check on the Chiefs for good measure: We have two teams with high approval ratings from their fans heading into this game. It should be a great contest. Now let’s move on to the staff predictions: Shawn Barber, Chiefs 17-14 This week’s Prediction comes from Philadelphia at the Men’s All Out or All In conference. Keys to the Game 1. Make the Jaguars offense one-dimensional, keep Blake Bortles on the move. He is a completely different quarterback out of the pocket. 2. Defensive improvement at the point of attack and an emphasis on finishing the plays. Wrap up on contact and have a ball-hawk mentality on creating turnovers. 3. Chiefs offense needs to understand the importance of running the ball and utilizing Travis Kelce or slot receivers to force Jaguars safeties into coverage. The Jaguars’ only weakness is at that position, so the Chiefs offense must find ways to isolate that position throughout the game. This will be a tight game that comes down to the kicking game and our coverage teams must be at there best. The Chiefs will kick a late field goal to win the game. Aaron Borgmann, Chiefs 24-17 The first regular-season game I ever worked for the Chiefs was against the Jaguars. It started off with a safety against us then we poured it on and never looked back. This game will be similar and although injuries on both sides may make an impact, the home team will move to 5-0 as expected with little trouble. Notice how one team is doing a lot of the talking and it isn’t the one from this town? Usually, that doesn’t end well for them. This game will be close, but the big-time players will make big-time plays and the Chiefs just have more of them. John Dixon, Chiefs 30-24 The national pundits are breathlessly awaiting the moment when Patrick Mahomes will fail against a solid defense. They’re not wrong to think this could happen, because history strongly suggests this can occur with a young quarterback. However, history also includes the 2013 Chiefs, who were perceived early in the season as a historically stingy defense — but as it turned out, they had simply played well against a string of less-than-stellar teams. Even if the Jaguars defense doesn’t eventually prove to be similar to the 2013 Chiefs defense, after watching Mahomes play on the road against an amped-up (and effectively managed) Broncos defense, I’m not going to pick against him at home. Matt Lane, Chiefs 24-23 This isn’t the first test the Chiefs will have faced this year but it’s certainly the first real test after seeing the first quarter of the year. The Chargers continue to be the Chargers and the Steelers look like a mediocre football team at best through four weeks making this game quite possibly the first playoff caliber team the Chiefs are facing. The Jaguars offense is as inconsistent as the Chiefs tackling which creates a matchup of a very movable force against a completely stopped object. Normally Leonard Fournette being out for the Jaguars ends up being a good thing but for this particular matchup, it’s a big loss, as he would prove to be quite the force to tackle for KC. Blake Bortles can have big games, especially if he relies on his legs, but the Chiefs EDGE players should be able to pressure him and force him into mistakes often. The Chiefs offense against the Jags defense may be the marquee matchup of the year and quite honestly it’s going to be a slugfest. The Jags are good at pretty much every level and every position on defense and are really going to challenge an OL that has been very good for most of the year. Like the Denver game, a lot of the Chiefs offensive success is going to come down to WRs actually beating tight coverage and if Sammy Watkins isn’t on the field, that’s a much taller task as we saw last week. The game is bound to be a close one and Jacksonville is the kind of team built to slow the Chiefs down, but on the legs of Kareem and some late play magic form “Showtime” Mahomes again. Gary McKenzie, Jaguars 27-24 I pick the Chiefs to win most of the time, but for some reason, I have the feeling the ball will bounce the Jaguars’ way on Sunday. I think Mahomes will play decently, but the Jaguars elite secondary is able to pick him off for the first time in 2018. Even with Leonard Fournette out, I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to stop the Jaguars from running the ball however much they want to. Matt Stagner, Chiefs 35-31 This could be another ugly game. The Chiefs might be in the rain, struggling to throw the ball against the No. 1 passing defense in the league. I expect turnovers, blown plays and a back-and-forth score all afternoon. The short week and tough opponent concern me. I could easily argue that the Chiefs will lose... but that’s not me. I don’t bet against Ma-homies. Craig Stout, Jaguars 24-17 While a *stacked* Jaguars defense against a *stacked* Chiefs offense should answer a lot of the early questions about each team this season, the game-determining battle will come on the other side of the ball. The Jaguars should be able to move the ball readily against a porous Chiefs run defense, and they won’t be afraid to run the ball 35-plus times to get the job done. Blake Bortles will keep plays alive with his legs and target the underneath receivers in space, an area the Chiefs coverage unit hasn’t defended particularly well. Mahomes tries to overcome the deficit in limited snaps, but he finally turns the ball over while pushing for the comeback victory. Kent Swanson, Jaguars 24-23 I have been going back and forth on my feelings about this game. Winning in this league isn’t easy. Winning four in a row, including three on the road, is a fantastic start for Patrick Mahomes and company. The Chiefs are a day short on preparation with the primetime game on Monday. The Jaguars defense is lights out, and Mahomes is facing his hands down toughest test to date. The Chiefs defense plays better, but the Jaguars get a special teams touchdown that ultimately nets them a win. Pete Sweeney, Chiefs 24-17 For the first time all season, we saw a team slow down the Kansas City Chiefs offense Monday night, but with nearly everyone having an off night, Patrick Mahomes found a way to push his team through. Mahomes hasn’t seen anything like the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this season—they are elite at every level—but what he showed me Monday night is that may not matter. In this matchup of the league’s best defense against the league’s best offense, I look for the Jaguars to try to slow this thing down, but Mahomes is too much for them in the end regardless of that plan. Joel Thorman, Chiefs 33-28 33 is a lot of points for a team going against arguably the best defense in the league but the Chiefs have too many weapons to hold them down. The legend of Patrick Mahomes continues. Aly Trost, Chiefs 31-21<doc-sep>Editor’s note: Every week, our in-house injury expert, Aaron Borgmann, will share some notes on the injuries coming out of One Arrowhead Drive. LB Dee Ford – (Groin) Player has been limited at practice all week with a groin strain. As we spoke about earlier this week, the Wednesday practice was a walkthrough, so it cannot be regarded as a normal practice. While you would like to see a full practice (FP) designation here, the fact that he was able to work all week in some fashion is a good sign. A “questionable” designation at this point is most likely a hedge of bets on the team’s part in case the player does not continue to progress. As was stated last week, with this player and this injury, speed rushers and muscle strains are not a great match, but in the last game, it was proven that this is something that the player can at least play through and contribute on some level. WR Sammy Watkins – (Hamstring) Concerning due to the player’s history of muscle strains. As was mentioned during the game, it was a good sign that the player was able to run back and forth up/down the sideline immediately after the injury, and the fact that he was able to be a LP designation all week. As stated above, the team may have limited this player due to short week in prep for the game as a hamstring injury is certainly something you don’t want to linger or get worse, especially in a WR. Since we have no context of this player, in this system, with this coaching/medical staff, it is hard to make any assumptions here. Most likely what you see is what you get, and the player hopefully continues to progress Friday and Saturday in prep for the game. Could be game-time decision, could just be the team being cautious on a short week. S Armani Watts – (Groin) This is a new incidence of an injury that showed up on Thursday. While you hate to see injuries come around that late in the week, this could simply be a case of timing. Many times, on short weeks and due to lighter practices, players have items show up during the first hard practice of the week. Hopefully, that is the case here. This is backed up by the fact that the player had a designation of full practice two days in a row after the injury was reported. While the questionable designation is never ideal, again, it is most likely the team being cautious with the player should he not continue to progress throughout the week. WR Chris Conley, C Mitch Morse, DL Chris Jones These players have all been on the injury report with injuries either from known events or unknown causes. At any rate, the have all been “full practice” (FP) all three days. This would fall under the category of maintenance. Football is hard, and players need work sometimes in order to play. There is little to no concern here. S ERIC BERRY – (heel) No change. Aaron Borgmann is the owner of Borgmann Rehab Solutions and a former 12-year NFL Physical Therapist and Athletic Trainer.<doc-sep>NFL experts are split as to whether the NFL’s best offense or the NFL’s best defense will walk away with a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs’ matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars was already a marquee matchup coming into this week—the Chiefs sport one of the league’s top offenses and will face off against the Jags’ elite defense. Then Tyreek Hill talked some mild trash about Jalen Ramsey, and Ramsey in turn responded with some more pointed barbs. Mix that with some forecasted rainy weather this Sunday at Arrowhead, and this game has the makings of a thrilling, messy battle. The expert picks across sports media this week are a reflection of that, as they are fairly evenly split, a definite change from the last two weeks that saw the Chiefs getting a lot of love from NFL prognosticators. The Denver Broncos’ defense is solid, but it’s not Jacksonville’s, and after seeing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense struggle through the first three quarters of their game last week on Monday Night Football, its clear that there is plenty of belief that the Jags can manage to slow down Mahomes and co. just enough to pull out a win. ESPN Of ESPN’s ten experts, six are picking the Chiefs to stay undefeated. Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Dan Graziano, and Mina Kimes atand as the four voices picking elite defense to top elite offense. CBS Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson are the only two of CBS’ eight-expert panel picking the Chiefs to continue their hot start. FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight projects the Chiefs at a 68% win probability, as their model continues to give KC the best shot in the league to win the Super Bowl at 16%. This game will do a lot for the Chiefs’ credibility as a contender, at least on the offensive side of the ball. If they manage to not only win, but win impressively, it should vault them to at the very least a favorite alongside the New England Patriots to win the AFC, with next week’s Sunday Night Football showdown in Foxborough perhaps serving as an AFC Championship Game preview. On the other hand, a loss featuring another less-than-stellar offensive performance will likely wipe a way a little of KC’s Next Big Thing sheen. Despite the Jags’ top-tier defense, this game is in Arrowhead so a loss would be a major disappointment. A win should be the expectation, and it should serve as another message that this Chiefs team is going to be a problem for everyone else in the league.<doc-sep>
Editor’s note: We welcome in Jacksonville Jaguars writer Ryan O’Bleness of Big Cat Country for “Five questions with the enemy,” leading into the Kansas City Chiefs’ matchup with the Jaguars on Sunday. 1) The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without both RB Leonard Fournette and CB DJ Hayden this Sunday vs. Kansas City. What is the impact of not having these two players and who do you expect to step up in their place? The Jaguars want to run the ball early and often, and when Fournette is healthy, the offense runs through him. Unfortunately, Fournette has not even played four full quarters combined this season due to a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1. Fourth-year running back T.J. Yeldon has really stepped up in his absence, proving to be a threat in both the rushing and receiving game, but has dealt with an ankle injury himself. The Jaguars will continue to lean on Yeldon as the lead back during Fournette’s absence, while sprinkling in Corey Grant in specific packages. Brandon Wilds may get very limited reps as well if he needs to spell either player. Hayden was signed as a free agent this offseason to replace Aaron Colvin at the nickel cornerback spot. He was a bit of a question mark going into the season, but played very well by all accounts early in the season. Hayden is dealing with a toe injury, however, and this will be the third straight game he will miss. Cornerback Tyler Patmon, who played 44 defensive snaps last week, will continue to get more looks with Hayden sidelined. It wouldn’t surprise me if rookie safety Ronnie Harrison sees an increased role in “big nickel” packages as well. 2) In the passing game, WRs Dede Westbrook (28) and Keelan Cole (24) are numbers one and two on the team in targets. What have these players shown during the first four weeks that have made them favorite targets for QB Blake Bortles? The Jaguars lost expected No. 1 receiver Marqise Lee to a torn ACL in the preseason, but even before Lee’s injury, Jacksonville approached the season with a committee at the position, as Lee wasn’t exactly a guy who would command double teams. Keelan Cole, an undrafted free agent in 2017 who went on to lead the Jags in receiving yards, kind of became the de facto No. 1 wideout for this season following the injury to Lee. He had a huge game against the New England Patriots with seven catches for 116 yards, a touchdown and a ridiculous one-handed catch, but hasn’t caught more than five balls or surpassed 54 receiving yards in any of the other three games. So consistency is lacking with him, but he can make big plays when needed. Dede Westbrook exploded against the New York Jets last week, catching nine balls on 13 targets for 130 yards. He’s averaging 5.25 catches and 73.5 yards per game, as well as 14 yards per catch. I think he’s been the more consistent of the two receivers mentioned and seems to be building good chemistry with Blake Bortles. The former Biletnikoff Award has only scored one touchdown so far this season, but I expect that to increase. I think Bortles trusts both Cole and Westbrook in key situations, and the target numbers seem to prove that theory. 3) On the defensive side of the football, the Jags offer plenty of household names such as DE Calais Campbell and CBs Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. But who is one lesser-known players Chiefs fans should be paying attention to come Sunday. Why? I talked a little bit about Tyler Patmon earlier, but he may be a name to keep an eye on. Patmon did an admirable job last week, playing nearly 80 percent of the defensive snaps and being amongst the teams leading tacklers. He’s going to be tested this week with the many different weapons the Chiefs may line up in the slot. He’ll need to step up in a big way. Rookies Taven Bryan and Ronnie Harrison will try to make an impact in limited reps as well. 4) TE James O’ Shaughnessy first entered the league as a 2015 fifth-round draft pick by the Chiefs before they eventually let him go. What has been O’Shaughnessy’s story with the Jaguars, and how has helped them so far this season?