Donald Tusk’s clear rejection of Theresa May’s Chequers plan at the Salzburg summit yesterday should not come as a surprise. The most important lesson of the Brexit negotiation is that it is not a negotiation, and never has been. Blessed with superior size, wealth and power, the EU has been able to dictate the framework and substance of the talks, and has refused any deviation from its red lines. The second most important lesson of the Brexit negotiation is that the EU will prioritise its economic and political cohesion above all else. That cohesion rests on two key outcomes: an undivided single market and an open border on the island of Ireland. It is these principles that have led us to Salzburg. The EU will not accept the Chequers plan, which proposes a single market in goods but not in services, capital or people. It will also not accept any possibility of border infrastructure in Ireland, which is anathema to Dublin and, according to the Police Service of Northern Ireland, presents a credible risk of sectarian violence. That has duly paved the way for the Brexit endgame, which EU negotiator Michel Barnier has now confirmed: there will be a border for goods in the Irish Sea. The EU does not, however, want to antagonise or humiliate the UK, and has scrambled to defuse the drama of this development. Barnier stresses that most checks between Britain and Northern Ireland will take place in offices and warehouses, and only live animals and food products will need to be examined at ports themselves. But no amount of diplomatic politesse can conceal Brexit’s reality: one part of the UK will be economically split from another. Theresa May effectively guaranteed this impasse last December, when she agreed the Irish backstop. The backstop guarantees, as a last resort, Northern Ireland’s alignment with Ireland on the customs union and single market to ensure the free flow of goods. Northern Ireland would be permitted to retain the single market just in goods because the Good Friday agreement depends on it. But no such exemptions would ever be open to the rest of the UK. Although the EU was too coy to admit it at the time, this always meant that the whole UK would have to commit to the prospect of staying in the full single market and customs union, or else concede the erection of trade barriers within its territory. If May had been armed with political judgment, or merely cognisant of reality, she would have prepared the British people – and government – for that concession. She has instead wasted nine months denying she ever made it. It comes as little surprise that the EU has now taken the initiative where the UK refused. 13:37 Brexit breakdown part 2: 'We've lost control' The prime minister has boxed herself in with promises she cannot keep. She insists on the ability to strike UK-only trade deals and end free movement of people, while refusing to accept its consequences. In Salzburg she announced “the idea that I should assent to the legal separation of the United Kingdom into two customs territories is not credible”, but failed to acknowledge the lack of credibility in any other option. She resembles a desperate fugitive who urgently needs to escape a building but instead keeps inexplicably locking herself inside it. The most problematic consequence of the EU’s proposals is one that Brussels is most loath to spell out. This is not simply about checking goods. If Northern Ireland permanently operates a different customs regime from the rest of the UK and implements EU tariffs, then Northern Ireland must be exempt from any future UK trade deals. But it is almost inconceivable that the DUP – let alone the UK parliament – would ever agree to such a scenario. The DUP leader in the Commons, Nigel Dodds, has referred even to the checking of goods as “separating Northern Ireland from Great Britain”. Quick Guide Will the Chequers agreement survive? Show Who dislikes the Chequers agreement and why? Noisiest in their opposition are Tory Brexiters, not least David Davis and Boris Johnson, both of whom quit the cabinet in protest. They argue that the promise to maintain a common rulebook for goods and other continued alignment will mean a post-Brexit UK is tied to the EU without having a say on future rules, rather than being a free-trading independent nation. Labour has also disparaged the proposal, expressing deep scepticism about the so-called facilitated customs arrangement system. What about the EU? Brussels has sought to stay positive, but has deep concerns about elements of the plan viewed as overly pick-and-mix, and thus potentially incompatible with EU principles. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, says he opposes both the customs plan and the idea of alignment for goods. He also makes plain his contention that the Chequers plan contains no workable idea for the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. But at the same time the EU has been careful to not entirely dismiss the proposals, raising the possibility it could accept some adapted version. Who supports the agreement? Officially, May and her cabinet, though even here the backing can seem lukewarm at times. Asked about Chequers, the home secretary, Sajid Javid, said it was the government’s plan “right now”, indicating alternative ideas could be considered. Is it doomed? Even May’s allies concede it will be a hugely difficult task to get the plan through parliament. Damian Green, the PM’s close friend and former de fact deputy, described the process as “walking a narrow path with people chucking rocks at us from both sides”. On the remain side of the Conservatives, the former education secretary Justine Greening called the Chequers plan “more unpopular than the poll tax”, saying May should start again from scratch. If anything can save the plan – and it’s an outside shot – it will be a combination of the hugely tight timetable and the fact that, as yet, no one else has yet produced a plan with a better chance of being accepted by parliament. What happens next? On 20 September, an informal gathering in Salzburg, Austria, will provide a snapshot of current EU thinking. Then, 10 days later, the Conservative conference could show the Chequers plan is holed below the waterline. If it survives these tests, the proposals will then reach the crucial EU summit Brussels on 18 October, with something final needed, at the very latest, in the next two months. PETER WALKER Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback. May consequently has two tasks. First, she must determine whether her government would survive opposition to an effective border in the Irish Sea from the DUP and Commons. But more important, she must decide whether she values the economic integrity of the UK more than the ability to unilaterally change Britain’s tariffs and end migration rights for Polish plumbers. The EU, for its part, knows it holds all the cards and recognises the danger of giving ground. Its priority is to accommodate Dublin, not London. It also concludes that a government so determined to leave must believe it can look after itself. Brussels has no reason or incentive to make any better offer. The government has never understood the Brexit process and therefore has always botched it. It expects the EU to treat the UK both as an equally powerful third country, and as a member state still deserving the EU’s protection. It is neither. And so in a battle of red lines, the UK will lose. That is the most brutal lesson of all.<doc-sep>The Democratic Unionist party cannot be allowed to veto any Brexit deal on the Irish border, Ireland’s deputy prime minister has said. Simon Coveney spoke out after Theresa May disclosed that she was considering the option of giving the Northern Ireland devolved government a veto on any proposed regulatory barrier between itself and the rest of the UK. The Sun reported on Saturday that the prime minister was pushing for an alternative set of regulatory arrangements for Northern Ireland, but that this was being blocked by the DUP, which is propping up her government. Coveney said: “We cannot allow one party in Northern Ireland to veto any proposals.” He told RTÉ’s Marian Finucane radio show: “The British government has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP, but we don’t have a confidence and supply agreement with any one party in Northern Ireland.” Speculation is growing that the EU and the British government are working on a “backstop to a backstop” to resolve the impasse in Brexit negotiations over the Irish border. On Friday, May revealed she would be setting out the UK’s alternative, which would involve an element of decision-making power being wielded by Belfast. “It will be in line with the commitments we made back in December – including the commitment that no new regulatory barriers should be created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK unless the Northern Ireland executive and assembly agree,” she said in her statement. The assembly has not been functioning since power-sharing collapsed in Northern Ireland almost two years ago because of a dispute between the DUP and Sinn Féin. It is highly unlikely that Stormont will be restored to full operation before a Brexit deal is sealed. May rejected the EU’s proposed wording for the backstop proposal in February because it would require the region to stay in the EU system even if the UK crashed out with no deal. Coveney told RTÉ there was “no question of a border down the Irish Sea”, but he was keen to ensure that minimal checks were required on goods. “There are practical realities of trade, and we are trying to do that in a way that doesn’t undermine the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom in a way that is threatening to unionism, but that can protect the concerns of both unionists and nationalists, neither of whom want a border re-emerging on the island of Ireland.” He said he believed the DUP recognised that Northern Ireland was not the same “as Kent or a borough in London” and it had many differences from other parts of the UK. The Daily Telegraph reported on Saturday that the “third option” for Northern Ireland would focus on extending the current regulatory checks on animals to other sectors. To protect the island of Ireland from outbreaks of disease, such as TB or mad cow disease, routine checks are done on livestock being imported from Britain, north and south of the border. The DUP has accepted that these “sanitary checks” are in place but are opposed to extending this to non-agricultural goods. Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, confirmed in Salzburg that the EU was reworking the backstop proposal to say that agriculture and phyto-sanitary checks would be the only physical controls that needed to take place between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. In this scenario, customs declaration forms would be filed to tax authorities electronically, and the separate customs checks needed to prevent tax evasion and smuggling would continue. It is argued that these checks are usually intelligence-led, based on tips-offs to the Police Service of Northern Ireland or Garda Síochána, and are part of the existing cooperation arrangements.<doc-sep>
Britain and its European Union partners failed on Thursday to secure a breakthrough in Brexit talks largely because of seemingly intractable divisions over the best way to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. With Britain's departure from the EU looming — March 29 — there are growing concerns that a deal on the post-Brexit relationship may not be cobbled together in time to ensure a smooth and orderly British exit. All leaders, including British Prime Minister Theresa May, are desperate to solve the biggest Brexit riddle — how to keep goods moving freely between Northern Ireland in the U.K. and EU member state Ireland. May rejected the sense that negotiations were falling apart when pressed by reporters at a news conference as the summit in Austria. "I've always said these negotiations were going to be tough," she said. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, says parts of May's Chequers proposal would undermine the 27 EU members. (Kerstin Joensson/Associated Press) If an agreement is to be sealed by March 29, May and her EU partners must find an acceptable answer in coming weeks so parliaments have enough time to ratify the agreement. 'Time is running short' They've spent two days in Salzburg trying to do just that, but with no clear solution in sight, the sides have tried to ramp up pressure on each other. Each side is urging the other to compromise while the EU issues constant warnings to Britain about the Brexit clock ticking. "Time is running short," Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told reporters. "We want to avoid a no-deal Brexit, but we are preparing for that. We are hiring extra staff and officials, bringing in IT systems. We are ready for that eventuality, should it occur." German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed, saying "substantial progress" must be made on Brexit when the parties meet on Oct. 18 in Brussels, with a view to wrapping up a deal in November. European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, third left, is among several officials shown on May 12, 2017, surveying the area along the Irish border close to Castleblayney, Ireland. (Peter Morrison/Associated Press) "We have come a long way already on the exit agreement ... we still have a lot of work to do on the future relationship," she said. Donald Tusk, EU Council president, said key parts of the British proposals "will not work." Any Brexit deal will include a withdrawal agreement and transition period to smooth Britain's exit from the bloc. That period is expected to last until the end of 2020, but if there is no deal to ensure no hard border in Ireland and a political declaration outlining future relations, then there will be no so-called transition period. That could would lead to Britain crashing out of the EU on Brexit day, a development that in theory could see flights parked and trade between the two sides grind to a halt. For Ireland, it's important not to undermine the hard-won peace after decades of sectarian tensions in neighbouring Northern Ireland. "What we want to avoid is any new barriers to the movement of goods, any new barriers to trade, any new barriers to the movement of people," Varadkar said. Chequers or bust, May says Over dinner in Salzburg on Wednesday evening, May told the other leaders that Britain would not delay Brexit or hold a second referendum. She insisted her proposals — the so-called Chequers plan — is the only option left. Under Chequers, Britain would basically remain a member of the EU's single market for goods and abide by EU rules governing that market. EU leaders say that is "cherry picking" on the part of Britain, which would be able to go its own way in services and on other issues such as the freedom of movement of labour. May was emphatic there would be no second referendum in Britain despite the difficulty of the negotiations and economic questions the country faces if a deal isn't reached with the EU. (Kerstin Joensson) After the summit, May repeated her stance that Chequers was "the only credible and negotiable plan on the table that delivers no hard border in Northern Ireland and also delivers on the vote of the British people." Admitting "concerns have been raised," May said, "I'm negotiating to deliver on what the British people voted for in the referendum." She reiterated that Britain was prepared for a no-deal Brexit.