Being born and bred in Texas is to have a lifelong attachment to all of the stereotypes that are thrown our way. The chief among them: that we appreciate all things big, typifying the age old adage that “everything is bigger in Texas.” So it is only natural that when NHL free agency and trades come up, I want the Dallas Stars to think and act big. Do whatever it takes to field a team that can win a Stanley Cup. However, there is a limit, and the Stars are flirting with that limit as I write this piece. Stars fans were frantically scrolling through Twitter on Tuesday at the news that the club had emerged as the front runner to trade for superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson. The news surely got my attention. The news also triggered one thought in my mind instantly: the Ottawa Senators are going to want Miro Heiskanen. I instantly tweeted this: I will yell to the heavens my objections if the Stars trade Miro. — Robert McClay III (@McClayR21) July 4, 2018 Now, to watch Erik Karlsson is to know that you are watching a truly special player. He skates effortlessly, he handles the puck as if it’s attached to his stick by a string, and he sees the game at an unmatched level. He’s special, and special players are to be appreciated, to be fawned over, and to be very expensive. Karlsson checks all of those boxes. The Dallas Stars would be better for having a player of his caliber on the backend, but not for the price the Senators are likely trying to get in return for him. One cannot fault the Senators for commanding a high price for their disgruntled captain. He truly is a generational talent, and they have every right to dictate the terms. It is also clear that the Senators have thrown up their hands and need to tear the thing down to the studs. The Senators would love to add a Heiskanen to center a rebuild around, and if you’re thinking about the present and the future of the Dallas Stars, that price is just too high. The main concern for trading Heiskanen is that many believe he is going to be a top four defenseman at the break of training camp. He has been touted as the best defenseman in Europe, dominating in the Finnish Liiga, one of the best leagues in the world. Heiskanen is a beast at 18, and he is likely to get exponentially better before he hits his prime (a full six years from now by conventional wisdom). The Stars currently have their best prospect arguably since Mike Modano in 1988. I say that with a straight face. The best since Modano. You do not trade that type of player, even for Erik Karlsson. It also gives me quite a bit of pause when I think about the ramifications that trading for a player like Karlsson today could have on the future. Karlsson is a dominant player and he has been since he came into the league. In 627 games played, Karlsson has 126 goals and 392 (518 points), eclipsing 70 points in a season four times, and has won two Norris trophies. He has been incredible, and it is completely possible that he has played the majority of his best hockey in Ottawa. Now, there is no doubt that Karlsson would be an impact player for the Stars for the first couple of years of his new deal (which we will discuss shortly), but why take the chance when the Stars have a player like Heiskanen, who is ten years younger, and by all reports can be an impact player right away? There is also the issue of Karlsson’s injury history. Karlsson is 28 years old, the same age as new Maple Leaf John Tavares, and this puts him squarely in his athletic prime. He has at least three or four elite-level seasons left in theory, but in a sport like hockey, who really knows. Unlike Tavares, who only has an ACL on his record, Karlsson has a troubling and gruesome history that includes a severed achilles tendon in 2013, which he has seemingly recovered from. However, the injury history is troubling in the present, as Karlsson is literally missing part of his ankle bone. He also seemingly recovered from this issue as well, but with feet and ankles, they both can worsen over time. Finally, let’s look at his next contract. Erik Karlsson is going to be extremely expensive to acquire and then extremely expensive to retain (if the Stars can retain him, which is part of the discussions between the teams when setting a trade price). Drew Doughty recently signed an eight year, $88 million deal. That is ten million more than John Tavares earned over the weekend, and would dramatically impact the cap for the Stars going forward. Do the Stars really want to burden themselves with a cap hit that is $11 to $12 million when they also have to sign Tyler Seguin to a mega-deal? The Seguin extension and the Karlsson extension would kick in at the same time. In no way do I like that, and in every way I believe it hurts the franchise over the long-term. Enter Miro Heiskanen, who will be on his entry-level contract, and I expect can produce for the Stars alongside incumbent #1 John Klingberg. Stars fans also need to take into account that the Karlsson deal would come off at his age 36 season and the Stars would be hard-pressed to move that kind of contract when Karlsson starts to decline near the end of it (made even more complicated by the next labor lockout, too). Enter Heiskanen once again, who would come off of his ELC in three years, be a restricted free agent, and who would presumably receive a sizable extension to lock him up during his prime. This sets up well for the present and the future of the franchise, a franchise that looks to win now and in the future. I completely understand the desire to win now from Stars fans. When I tune in 82 times a year for the boys in Victory Green, I am as locked in as anyone. I want the Stars to win a Stanley Cup yesterday, and tomorrow, and the day after that. It would be the most meaningful sports moment of my sports life. However, when I look at the team and the future of the team objectively, I cannot bring myself to like a trade for Erik Karlsson. I can’t believe I am writing that, but I know it’s true. Karlsson would be an incredible addition for the present and has the potential to turn into an incredible burden in the future. He will be an aging player in a position that is physically demanding in terms of ice-time and physical punishment doled out by opponents. The move could give the Stars an improved shot at a playoff berth this season, but to say it locks the Stars into Cup contention is premature. This club still needs help in the top six and still needs to lock up their number one center to put themselves in that conversation. The Stars also have a young, and by all accounts, world-class defenseman already. Klingberg could easily take a key role in leading the Stars to a championship in the next three years — and on a team-friendly contract, too. That makes Karlsson less of a glaring need than it would otherwise.<doc-sep>All last night we were treated to tweets like this: Tampa Bay and Ottawa continue to work on an Erik Karlsson trade. The NYR may be involved as Lightning need cap room. Callahan back to NY? — Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 5, 2018 Sounds like Ottawa and Tampa Bay are getting close on a Karlsson trade. We will see what happens in the next 24-hours. — Travis Yost (@travisyost) July 6, 2018 My NHL sources tell me a Karlsson deal to Tampa is done, pending a call with the league office. @TSN1200 — Shawn Simpson (@TSNSimmer) July 6, 2018 The Tampa Bay Lightning sure seem like the front runners in the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes. Are they reacting to the Maple Leafs signing John Tavares? With the Leafs loading up down the middle - with the best #91 in the league - the Lightning have to make a move to keep up and pairing Karlsson and Victor Hedman could just be the bigger bomb to keep things at bay. Here are your links. Kyle Dubas: “No matter what is written or what is said about this entire process, John Tavares doesn’t come to Toronto without the players that are here” - MLHS How Can The Leafs Fix Their Defense? - TLN Blue Jackets sign Anthony Duclair to 1-year, $650K deal - Second City Hockey The 22-year-old forward is heading to Columbus. Hurricanes Sign Trevor van Riemsdyk to Two-Year Contract Extension - Canes Country TvR was arbitration-eligible and elected for arbitration, but the two sides agreed to a deal on Thursday. Calvin de Haan Signing Heralds New Hurricanes Direction - Canes Country The idea of a top free agent signing with the Hurricanes might be even more noteworthy than the actual act of Calvin de Haan doing so. I believe Karlsson will add to any team, hopefully it’s not Dallas - Defending Big D Erik Karlsson is a generational talent, a defenseman who has all the tools a team could want. But, the Stars seem to be swinging at a pitch that could either strike them out or put them over top, and I argue the first option is the likely outcome. And a must read from the losers end of the Karlsson deal: Senators Take Coward’s Way Out on Karlsson - Silver Seven Let’s be honest. We all saw this coming. We knew Senators’ General Manager Pierre Dorion would make Erik Karlsson an "offer" on July 1st. We knew it would be a formality in an attempt to save face... Enjoy your day everyone!<doc-sep>(65) after a stop in the action during a game between the Dallas Stars and Ottawa Senators on February 09, 2017, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, On. (Photo by Jason Kopinski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (65) after a stop in the action during a game between the Dallas Stars and Ottawa Senators on February 09, 2017, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, On. (Photo by Jason Kopinski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) On Tuesday night, the Dallas Stars were rumored to be the frontrunner in a potential Erik Karlsson trade. However, recent reports about the details of the trade have split Stars fans on whether it’s a good idea. Should the team try and make a move? It’s the Fourth of July, Dallas Stars fans. You know what that means. First off, it marks the five-year anniversary since Tyler Seguin was traded to the team by Boston in the 2013 offseason. And secondly, it means that it’s another day for general manager Jim Nill to make a big splash. It’s never really been like Nill to conduct big offseason business on July 1. While other teams land their big fishes via free agency signings on the first day of the market opening, the Dallas Stars have become known for staying relatively quiet. Instead, they wait quietly in the shadows, assess what their opponents do, and then counter with a blockbuster move and “win the offseason.” You’ve heard this story before, right? It’s not unlike Dallas to be quiet on July 1. And that’s why it wasn’t necessarily a shock when the Stars only made some subpar depth moves for three days ago. Instead of going after a superstar top six scorer or potentially landing John Tavares, Dallas instead signed Blake Comeau and Roman Polak. It was a curious move, but wasn’t one that should be significantly questioned. After all, you should know Nill’s style by now. Following the first day of moves, Nill left the door open for more potential moves in the future. “This is a good part of it,” Nill said about his 2018-19 roster. “We’re still talking to teams and still have to get some guys signed. And once again, there’s still lots of things that I think could happen over the summer. But this is a pretty good core of our team.” Well, those “lots of things” could be happening as early as today. On Tuesday evening, the Stars were linked as the frontrunner in a potential trade for Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. Trading for one of the best defenders of this generation is no small matter. So obviously, Nill is in the middle of it all. Trading for an incredibly gifted offensive defenseman? Sign Dallas up, right? Well, maybe not. As more details about the trade began surfacing throughout Tuesday night, more Stars fans became uncertain about the deal. With the assets reportedly involved in the return price, would it really be worth it in the end for Dallas? Talks on going between Dallas and Senators … Senators focusing on Miro Heiskanen third overall to Dallas last year, one source suggested. Dallas would rather give up Julius Honka, 14th overall in 2014. Played 42 games with Stars last season. Stay tuned. — Chris Stevenson (@CJ_Stevenson) July 4, 2018 Some of the assets in the potential return included Julius Honka, Devin Shore, Radek Faksa, and draft picks. But the main name that threw up red flags for Stars fans was 2017 first-round pick Miro Heiskanen. According to reports, Heiskanen is the Senators’ main target. That has some Stars fans unhappy and ready to back out, but others are still insistent on taking the deal and getting it done. We ran a poll on our Twitter page last night asking for the opinions of Stars fans, and the results were almost evenly split (at the time this article was written). It had over 500 votes and boasted a 56-44 split. Only because this seems to be a significant point of debate between Stars fans… Would you give up Miro Heiskanen in exchange for Erik Karlsson? — Blackout Dallas (@BlackoutDallas) July 4, 2018 Those aren’t typical numbers for a sports fan base. More often than not, there’s a significant majority that either agrees or disagrees with a move the team makes. This situation looks to be different. And with that being said, it’s only fair that we present the pros and cons of both sides. Should the Dallas Stars go after Erik Karlsson regardless of the return price? Or should they leave it alone and continue their pursuit towards 2018-19? “Go for Karlsson” or “Hands Off Miro.” Here’s a look at both sides.<doc-sep>
Share this Story: Is Erik Karlsson on his way to the Tampa Bay Lightning? Is Erik Karlsson on his way to the Tampa Bay Lightning? Photo by Jean Levac / Ottawa Citizen Article content Expect Erik Karlsson to be traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning. I was told this about 9:30 a.m. Thursday morning by a friend who has an impeccable record when it comes to knowing inside information with the Senators. He said he’s “very comfortable” with the source that told him. He didn’t know any details, but thought it would be wise for me to “throw it out there.” We apologize, but this video has failed to load. tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or Is Erik Karlsson on his way to the Tampa Bay Lightning? Back to video Other people around the league I checked with, say there could very well be something to the rumour. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman has been talking to Senators GM Pierre Dorion about Karlsson since before the draft. The Lightning currently have just under $4.5 million cap space and have to re-sign star winger Nikita Kucherov and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy next summer. They would have to move some contracts out to make Karlsson fit. But theoretically, Karlsson would offset the Toronto Maple Leafs signing of John Tavares and greatly improve Tampa’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup. Article content Because of a previous trade, the Lightning will lose their 2019 first round pick to the New York Rangers if they win the Cup next season – and the Senators would like to get one back because the Colorado Avalanche has theirs. But Yzerman can offer 20-year old defenceman Mikhail Sergachev, who was the ninth overall pick in 2016, or 22-year old centre Brayden Point, who had 32 goals and 66 points last season, along with other enticing prospects or picks. The Rangers get the Lightning second round 2019 selection if Tampa doesn’t win the Cup next spring. It’s believed a trade between the two teams would not include Bobby Ryan, who still has four years on a contract that carries an annual $7.25 million cap hit the Senators would like to lose. Article content Dallas and Vegas could also still be in the mix on Karlsson, but Sergachev would be the best young replacement on defence anyone could offer Dorion. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Russian had nine goals and 40 points in 79 games as a rookie with the Bolts last season, and he’ll be playing on his entry level deal (cap hit: $894,166) until 2020-2021. The Lightning would surely prefer to keep Sergachev, but Dorion should be in no rush and is in position to play hardball. Karlsson would likely be open to such a move, where he would be united with his friend and former Swedish junior teammate Victor Hedman. Also, Lightning owner Jeffrey Vinik has deep pockets and a willingness to spend, priming Tampa to be a contender for years. Before 9:30 a.m. on Thursday, I was starting to believe Karlsson might just dig in his heels and remain with the Senators – at least until being eligible to test the open market, by making himself available to all teams as an unrestricted free agent next July. Article content My pal Chris Stevenson at The Athletic threw out the theory a couple of days ago. What if Karlsson chose not to negotiate with any of the teams that had received permission to talk to him after he turned down what’s believed to be a eight-year, $80 million opening offer from Senators? What if he wanted to increase his value by gambling that he can be better in 2018-19 than he was in 2017-18, when he was playing on a damaged ankle? Sure, there’s security against another injury by taking a deal now, but Karlsson is a confident guy. I’d bet that he’d bet on scoring more than nine goals and 62 points – which he did last season, his most unproductive in five years. He already deserves more than the $11 million for eight years the Los Angles Kings gave Drew Doughty on July 1. He’s a better player. If Karlsson has another year like he did in 2016-17, he could be worth between $12-15 million a year, especially the way the salary cap keeps going up. Article content Wherever the Senators tried to trade him, now or at the deadline, he could make it known that he wasn’t signing an extension.