“Migration policy is one reason for the upswing in the Greens,” who received votes from liberal conservatives appalled at how much their old party veered to the right during the campaign, Mr. Oberreuter said. Forty percent of new Green supporters across Germany come from the center right of the political spectrum, according to research by the Forsa Institute. At the same time, migration was also the reason a more nationalist faction inside the conservatives defected to the far right in the Bavarian vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany party was expected to win 10.3 percent of the vote, allowing it to enter the Bavarian Parliament for the first time. Yet while the far right received far more attention during what was a noisy and at times nasty campaign, it was the Greens whose vote looked set to nearly double, to 17.2 percent, making the party the second-strongest in a region long considered one of Germany’s most conservative. They also came first in many of Bavaria’s biggest cities, including Munich, where they were on course to win more than 30 percent. As Barbara Stamm, a veteran conservative lawmaker in Bavaria, put it on Sunday night, “You can’t win as many votes on the right as you lose in the middle.” Over all, the Christian Social Union was on course to see its vote share slump to 37.5 percent, exit polls suggested. And Ms. Merkel’s other coalition partner, the Social Democrats, collapsed to a level of support lower than the far right’s, a result that some see as a harbinger of further losses for Ms. Merkel’s conservatives. Already at a postwar low, in two weeks her party is expected to lose ground — and possibly the election — in another regional ballot, in the state of Hesse.<doc-sep>Supporters of the Christian Social Union (CSU) political party react to initial election results after the Bavarian state elections on October 14, 2018 in Munich, Germany. Alexander Hassenstein | Getty Images News | Getty Images Angela Merkel's coalition government in Berlin looks more fragile than ever after voters in the state of Bavaria roundly rejected the chancellor's allied parties at a regional election this weekend. The result was likened to a "political earthquake" and "landslide" by experts. The Christian Social Union (CSU), Merkel's Bavarian sister party, saw its worst election result since 1950 on Sunday and lost its long-held majority, while the Green party and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party saw their vote share increase. Political analysts and economists say the result will have big ramifications on the fractious coalition government in Berlin, made up of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) – that has continued to see its popularity slide, in Bavaria and beyond. "The major takeaway is that the two traditional people's parties – the CSU and the SPD – saw combined losses of 21 percentage points of the vote compared to the last election so that is a clear signal back to the grand coalition that the center is moving out to the fringes both left and right," Andrew Bosomworth, head of German Portfolio Management at PIMCO, told CNBC on Monday. This is a "local political earthquake," Bosomworth added, speaking to CNBC's Annette Weisbach in Munich, saying there could be "reverberations that will filter through to Berlin." The CSU won 36.8 percent of the vote, losing its absolute majority (and falling from a 46.5 percent share in the last election in 2013), preliminary results published by the Bavarian state early Monday morning showed. The Greens won 17.5 percent of the vote, putting them the second place. A collective of independent candidates, the Free Voters, came third with 11.9 percent of the vote. The AfD won 10.3 percent of the vote putting it in fourth place but marking a stark rise for the anti-immigration, euroskeptic party that didn't even participate in the last Bavarian state election. What's worse for the 'grand coalition' in Berlin, the SPD – its coalition partner and one that already joined the CDU-CSU alliance reluctantly after being trounced in last October's national election – fared worse than the upstart AfD, with only 10.1 percent of the vote. From the last state vote in 2013, the SPD saw its share of the vote fall by almost 10 percentage points. Political 'landslide' One economist said the results had created a "landslide" in German politics amid already tense relations and policy disagreements between the parties within the 'grand coalition' – not least of all between Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the head of the CSU. "Sunday's elections in Bavaria will have created a landslide. Not only for Bavaria but probably also for German national politics," Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, said in a note Sunday. "Given that the CSU had reached an absolute majority in twelve out of the last thirteen elections, this result marks a political landslide." Relations between Merkel and the CSU leader Seehofer have been strained in recent months despite the CDU and CSU being long-standing political allies. Seehofer has been openly critical of Merkel's more permissive stance on refugees and migration policy. ING's Brzeski remarked that this strategy had backfired on the CSU with it hemorrhaging voters to both the left and right. "The party's strategy to criticize Chancellor Angela Merkel's stance on refugees and migration did not work out well. Instead, the party left the political center vacant, leading to the increase of the Greens as a kind of liberal alternative for the CSU. The Greens won many votes in Bavarian cities. At the same time, the CSU's strategy strengthened rather than prevented the AfD," he said. Still, the CSU gained the highest share of the vote in Bavaria and analysts believe it could see a coalition with the Free Voters. "Currently, a coalition of CSU and Free Voters seems like the most probable outcome, which could keep the damage for the CSU limited, even though the party is shaken to its core and some personnel changes cannot be ruled it," Brzeski noted. Jumping ship or trapped? The poor performance of Merkel's coalition partner, the SPD, has also led to questions over whether it will remain in the 'grand coalition' or whether it will see its continuing alliance with the CDU and CSU as politically toxic. How that could affect the coalition as a whole, or what is seen as Merkel's fourth (and predicted to be last) term in government is uncertain. "The results were a blow to the coalition but it was an expected blow and I guess the good news for Merkel is that the main loser was not the CSU, they will stay in government," Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute in Germany, told CNBC on Monday. "The main loser is the SPD, in absolute terms they have lost twice as many voters as the CDU and that's an absolute disaster for the SPD and now they have reasons to leave the coalition. But then, new elections would be another disaster for them so in a way they're trapped in the coalition and that's why I think the coalition will continue." PIMCO's Andrew Bosomworth said the Bavarian election could have an impact on the make-up of German politics.<doc-sep>EU is 'punishing' Britain in Brexit negotiation says Matteo Salvini top stories direct to your inbox SUBSCRIBE Invalid email Sign up to receive our rundown of the day'sdirect to your inbox When you subscribe we will use the information you provide to send you these newsletters. Sometimes they'll include recommendations for other related newsletters or services we offer. Our Privacy Notice explains more about how we use your data, and your rights. You can unsubscribe at any time. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative allies in Bavaria have had their worst election performance for more than 60 years securing just 37.3 percent of the vote in a huge blow to her fragile three-party coalition government. In a scathing tweet, Italian deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini claimed the electoral blow to Mrs Merkel's government showed “the old system had lost” and praised electoral gains by anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany. Mr Salvini said: "In Bavaria change has won and the European Union, the old system that has always been poor in Brussels, has lost. This was a historical defeat for Christian Democrats and Socialists, while for the first time many of the AFD friends are entering the Regional Parliament. "Goodbye Merkel, Schultz and Juncker.” Ms Merkel’s conservative allies in Bavaria have had their worst election performance for more than 60 years sparking calls for “something to change” from her Social Democrats coalition partner and claims of an “end of an era” for the leader. The Christian Social Union (CSU) secured just 37.3 percent of the vote, which is expected to deal a blow to her fragile three-party coalition government. The results reveal that the Greens have won 17.8 percent of the vote and the Conservative Free Voters have won 11 percent of the vote. The Social Democrats (SPD) leader Andrea Nahles said that the “poor performance” of the federal government in Berlin was one of the reasons for her party’s weak showing in Bavaria. EU news: Matteo Salvini said the Bavarian election results meant that the She said: “It’s clear that something has to change”. This comment is especially devastating to Chancellor Merkel as she only managed to secure a fourth term in power after the SPD backed a coalition deal earlier this year. Prior to their agreement of a coalition, there had been six months of uncertainty and Germany had been without a government for the longest time in its postwar history. The SPD won nine percent of the vote in the elections. For the second time this year, Merkel’s party will be scrambling for coalition allies, either the Conservative Free voters or the Greens. Chancellor Merkel angered many voters in Germany for her immigration policies, which has seen more than a million people enter the country since 2015. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 11 percent of the vote and has now entered the 15th of Germany’s 16 state assemblies. President of the Atlantic Council think tank Fred Kempe said: “The political earthquake was in Bavaria, but the aftershocks will be felt in Berlin. Matteo Salvini and Marine Le Pen reveal ‘alternative Europe’ plans In Bavaria change has won and the European Union has lost Matteo Salvini<doc-sep>BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed on Monday to restore trust in her government after her conservative allies suffered heavy losses in a regional election, which their far-right foes hailed as “an earthquake” that would rock the ruling coalition. The Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party of Merkel’s own Christian Democrats (CDU), slumped to its worst result in almost 70 years in Sunday’s election in Bavaria. The chancellor’s other coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), saw its support halved. “My lesson from this is that I, as chancellor, must make sure that trust is won back. I will work on that with as much vigour as I can,” she said at an event of the BGA trade body. CSU leader Horst Seehofer, who is also interior minister in Merkel’s loveless coalition, had hoped his anti-immigration rhetoric and criticism of Merkel’s liberal asylum policies would help his party fend off a threat from the far-right in Bavaria. His strategy backfired as the CSU, which has ruled Bavaria for almost six decades, bled votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the ecologist Greens in equal measure. On Monday, he appeared to extend an olive branch. “We will do our bit to ensure that the coalition can continue to do its work in a stable manner despite some of the comments that were made yesterday,” Seehofer told reporters. He was referring to angry CSU delegates who blamed their party’s dismal showing on Merkel’s decision in 2015 to welcome some one million, mainly Muslim, asylum seekers, which has fuelled the rise of the AfD. Merkel said the CSU had lost its absolute majority in the Bavarian parliament even though the regional economy was doing well. “This shows that even a good economic situation and almost full employment are not sufficient if trust is lacking,” Merkel said. The Bavarian economy grew by 2.8 percent last year, outpacing the national rate of 2.2 percent. It also has the lowest unemployment rate in Germany, 2.8 percent, compared with just over 5 percent nationally. The AfD gleefully seized on the election outcome as a sign of a broader malaise for Merkel’s coalition, which has been shaken by disputes, including over immigration, since it took power seven months ago. “We are very pleased because the goal for the Bavaria state election was to send an earthquake towards Berlin,” Martin Sichert, AfD leader in Bavaria, told a news conference. “This earthquake happened .... We are now excited to see what the consequences will be here in Berlin.” The CSU also lost support to the Free Voters, a protest party of mainly conservative independents. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen, Volker Bouffier and Armin Laschet, Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia attend a Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leadership meeting in Berlin, Germany, October 15, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch In Bavaria, the CSU will now try to form a coalition either with the Free Voters - its preferred option - or with the Greens who are ideologically distant. “PAINFUL” The ruling coalition was borne of necessity rather than choice after an inconclusive general election in September 2017. The Bavarian election was also a wake-up call for the SPD, which saw its support halve to just under 10 percent, prompting a discussion over the sustainability of its alliance at national level with Merkel’s conservative bloc. SPD members are still bitter over their leaders’ decision to join the government after vowing before the 2017 election to sit in opposition if they lost to the conservatives. They are now demanding consequences. SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed her party’s losses in Bavaria on infighting at national level between the CDU and CSU. “It is obvious that the whole style of our cooperation must change,” she told reporters. “We urgently need to work on the style and communication and also on substantive progress.” Polls suggest the ruling parties will again be punished in two weeks’ time in an election in the western state of Hesse, where they are expected to lose voters to the AfD and the Greens. The state is ruled by Merkel’s CDU in a coalition with the Greens and a slump in support for the conservatives there would almost certainly further weaken the chancellor’s authority. Merkel, who has been in power since 2005 and is Europe’s most powerful leader, then faces further potential pitfalls in the form of a CDU conclave and the party’s annual congress in early December. The 64-year-old Merkel has won support from key conservatives in her bid for re-election as CDU chairwoman at the congress. But this could change if the CDU loses Hesse to an SPD-Greens coalition. “If the CDU loses the government in Hesse, this will probably start a discussion within the CDU about Merkel’s position,” wrote mass-selling newspaper Bild.<doc-sep>
Germany woke up on Monday to the news that its crisis-prone government could become even more unstable after the parties ruling in a loveless coalition suffered humiliating results in an election in the southern state of Bavaria. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian allies slumped to their worst election results in almost 70 years and her junior coalition partners, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), saw support in Bavaria halved. "It's gonna be turbulent," headlined the Die Welt newspaper. "The result in Bavaria is a vote against the grand coalition in Berlin." The SPD had hoped that infighting over immigration between Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) allies would give them a boost in Bavaria. But instead, the party saw support fall to just under 10 percent, prompting a discussion over the sustainability of its alliance with Merkel's conservatives at the national level. Interior Minister Horst Seehofer told reporters Monday his conservative Christian Social Union will "will play our part ... so that the 'grand coalition' can steadily continue to do its work." SPD members are still bitter over their leaders' decision to join a Merkel-led government after vowing before the general election in September 2017 to sit in opposition if they lost to the conservatives. They are now demanding consequences. The party's General Secretary Lars Klingbeil told Deutschlandfunk radio that members wanted a change in the style of government. SPD leaders have promised members opposed to a coalition with the conservatives they will hold a review after two-years in government and decide whether the partnership was still viable. Asked if disgruntled SPD members were demanding that the review be brought forward, Klingbeil said: "The evaluation is planned for the middle of the legislative period but something must happen now. There must be different style of government." He said the CSU under Horst Seehofer must stop picking arguments, especially on issues like migrant policy. "If the style of government doesn't change, there will be a debate in the SPD and the critical voices will get stronger," he said. The big winners of the election were the environmentalist Greens, who came second, and the far-right Alternative for Germany, which entered the state legislature. It now sits in 15 of Germany's 16 state parliaments, as well as the national parliament. Polls indicate that the ruling parties will be chastened again in two weeks in an election in the western state of Hesse, where they are expected to bleed support to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the ecologist Greens. The state is ruled by Merkel's CDU in a coalition with the Greens and a slump in support for the conservatives there would almost certainly further weaken her authority. "If the CDU loses the government in Hesse, this will probably start a discussion within the CDU about Merkel's position," wrote mass-selling Bild.