The House just voted in favor of blocking Trump’s national emergency. The Democratic-controlled lower chamber voted 245-182 to approve a resolution that would terminate the national emergency, sending the measure over to the Senate, where its fate remains uncertain. Both the House and the Senate will need to approve the resolution by a simple majority for it to ultimately pass. The measure was backed Tuesday by an overwhelming number of House Democrats as well as 13 Republicans, though not enough to reach the lower chamber’s veto-proof 290-vote threshold. Democrats are hoping to use this resolution to stymie Trump’s emergency declaration, which they argue bypasses the spending authority Congress is granted by the Constitution. As part of the National Emergencies Act of 1976, Congress has a legislative check it can use in an attempt to block an emergency. All the resolution needs is a simple majority of lawmakers in both chambers to approve it. Now that the House has passed this measure, what remains to be seen is whether the Republican-dominated Senate will do the same. The 47-member Democratic caucus in the upper chamber will have to stay united and convince at least four Republicans to join them. And even if the resolution passes both the House and the Senate, the White House has already signaled that Trump would veto the measure, which would mark the first veto of his presidency. (Trump has threatened a veto plenty of times before without going through with it.) White House officially issues veto threat on resolution to terminate Pres. Trump’s National Emergency declaration, per @betsy_klein pic.twitter.com/NasvVvU328 — Phil Mattingly (@Phil_Mattingly) February 26, 2019 What happens next The Senate will take up this resolution in the coming weeks, where the scrutiny will be on Republican lawmakers who’ve expressed concern with the precedent this emergency declaration could set for future Democratic presidents. Because the resolution falls under the purview of the National Emergencies Act, the Senate is required to hold a vote on it within 18 days. Already Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Susan Collins (R-ME) have indicated that they will vote in favor of blocking Trump’s emergency declaration, with Lisa Murkowski indicating that she’s “likely” to do so as well. If Democrats are able to swing one more Republican to their side, it’s probable that the resolution will actually clear both chambers of Congress, only to be vetoed by the president. Since establishing a two-thirds veto-proof majority for the measure in both the House and the Senate is highly unlikely, the resolution is ultimately expected to fail. Democrats, at that point, could continue their fight against the national emergency declaration in the courts.<doc-sep>WASHINGTON — Today’s House vote to reverse President Trump’s national emergency declaration for his border wall will tell us a lot about how Republicans might break when it comes to special counsel Robert Mueller’s ultimate findings. A test vote on the rule of law? (Can a president bypass Congress if he doesn’t get his way?) Check. A test vote on the separation of powers? (Which branch of government gets to tax and spend money?) You betcha. A test vote on the number of Republicans willing to break away from Trump? If you’re not going to vote against the president on this matter – bypassing Congress’ will on build a border wall – you’re never going to vote against him. NBC’s Marianna Sotomayor reports that the House vote is expected between 5:15 pm ET and 6:15 pm ET, and the legislation reversing Trump’s national emergency declaration has 230 co-sponsors (including one Republican), so it will pass. Once the legislation clears the House, the Senate has 18 days to vote on it. Guess which GOP senator has come out against Trump’s national emergency? Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who just happens to be up for re-election in 2020. Michael Cohen plans to make some news As it turns out,President Trump picked quite the week to be thousands of miles away in Vietnam. In addition to the House vote on his national emergency declaration, former Trump fixer/attorney Michael Cohen is testifying on Capitol Hill – in three different settings: Tuesday before the Senate Intelligence Committee (closed meeting) Wednesday before the House Oversight and Reform Committee (open) Thursday before House Intelligence Committee (closed). And it looks like Cohen is willing to make some news, especially on Wednesday, a knowledgeable source tells NBC News: “Cohen will describe behind the scenes eyewitness, personal observation anecdotes which include lies, racism and cheating as a private businessman when Cohen worked for him for ten years.” “He will also reveal information about Trump's financial statements.” “Cohen will discuss his motives for lying and why he decided to tell the truth publicly for fear of his family and country.” “Did anyone tell him to lie? Cohen will discuss this as well. In Trump world no one talks in declarative sentences.” Replacing Rahm It’s Election Day in Chicago, where a whopping 14 candidates are running to succeed outgoing Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Political observers in the Windy City say an April 2 runoff featuring the Top 2 finishers is virtually guaranteed, since no one is expected to get the 50 percent-plus needed to win outright tonight. Indeed, breaking into the 20s probably gets you in the runoff. The top candidates vying to replace Rahm are Cook County Board of Commissioners President Toni Preckwinkle, former Clinton Commerce Secretary and Obama Chief of Staff Bill Daley (whose father and brother served as Chicago mayor), former assistant U.S. attorney Lori Lightfoot (who co-chaired the Chicago Police Accountability Task Force), and Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza. Oh, and get a load of this potential headache: NBC Chicago reports that any of the Top 3 finishers can file for a discovery recount if they’re within 5 percentage points of the candidate ahead of them. 2020 Vision: Bernie’s eyebrow-raising answer on releasing his tax returns In Bernie Sanders’ otherwise solid performance at last night’s CNN town hall – it helps having run for president before! – this exchange on his tax returns stood out: CNN: Will you release 10 years of your tax returns? As you know, Elizabeth Warren has decided to do that. SANDERS: Yes. CNN: What was the delay? Why haven't you done that so far? SANDERS: Well, you know, the delay is not -- it'll bore -- our tax returns will bore you to death. It's simply -- nothing special about them. It just was a mechanical issue. We don't have accountants at home. My wife does most of it. And we will get that stuff out. CNN: So when do you think we'll be able to see your tax returns? SANDERS: Sooner than later. CNN: What does that mean? SANDERS: Soon. [snip] CNN: And why didn't you do it the last time around? You were under a lot of pressure to do so. SANDERS: I wasn't under a lot of pressure. I didn't end up doing it because I didn't win the nomination. If we had won the nomination, we would have done it. CNN: All right, Senator, but... SANDERS: But, again, I don't want to shock you, Wolf. They're very boring tax returns. CNN: And we'll look for to seeing them. SANDERS: OK. Our takeaway: It doesn’t take an accountant to make PDFs of past returns filed to the IRS. What is he nervous about? On the 2020 trail today Joe Biden has a conversation with historian and author Jon Meacham at the University of Delaware. Data Download: -19 percentage points That’s the margin among independent voters who agree that “The country would be better off if our political and economic systems were more socialist,” (37 percent) and those who disagree (56 percent). According to the poll conducted by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies – the GOP half of the NBC/WSJ poll – 45 percent of all registered voters agree that the U.S. would be better off if it were more socialist, including Democrats by a 77 percent-to-19 percent margin (+58). But a majority – 51 percent – disagree, including GOP respondents by a 14 percent-to-83 percent margin (-69). Key swing groups also disagree, such as white suburban women (-17) and those living in potential 2020 battleground states (-12). Bottom line from Public Opinion Strategies pollster Neil Newhouse: “The president’s State of the Union warning against a shift to socialism makes sense given these poll results.” The poll was conducted February 16-20 of 800 registered voters, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. Tweet of the day One reason House Republicans are citing to oppose the resolution to overturn President Trump's national emergency declaration is they haven't had time to review the bill. It is one page and about 70-80 words: https://t.co/1BkbT1meKu — Susan Davis (@DaviSusan) February 25, 2019<doc-sep>President Trump will likely have to issue his first veto to keep in place his national emergency declaration. But based on what we know now, the veto is unlikely to be overturned. The House voted 245-182 Tuesday to overturn Trump’s declaration, which would free up money to build more physical barriers along the U.S-Mexico border. Thirteen Republicans joined 232 Democrats to vote yes. But that was the easiest part — it gets progressively harder for opponents of Trump’s emergency from here. Next, the resolution goes to the Senate, where it needs only a simple majority to pass. If the resolution passes the Senate, Trump will presumably veto it, in which case a two-thirds majority would be needed in each chamber to override the veto. The Senate looks likely to pass the resolution, but not by a veto-proof majority. Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins, both of whom break with Trump more than most other Senate Republicans, and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis have already said they will back the resolution. Assuming all 47 Democratic senators vote “yes” (this is a safe assumption, none have signaled they will break ranks), one more Republican defection would allow the provision to pass. And there are more than a dozen Republicans who have raised concerns about Trump’s declaration, with many of them casting it as an overreach of executive power that they worry will set a precedent for the next Democratic president. In terms of additional Senate defections, I’m looking for four kinds of senators who would be more likely to join with Democrats. First, there are the more moderate Republicans, both of whom are accounted for: Collins and Murkowski are expected to vote for the resolution. (There aren’t many true moderate GOP members left in the Senate.) More moderate Republicans were clearly more likely to break with Trump in the House on Tuesday. The 13 Republicans who voted “yes” with the Democrats had an average Trump Score of 83 percent, well below the average among the “no” votes, 94 percent. (Of course, plenty of Republicans with relatively low Trump Scores, in the mid-to-high 80s, voted “no” also.) Second, keep an eye on the GOP senators who are the most electorally vulnerable in 2020, running in states that Hillary Clinton either won or narrowly lost. Again, Collins falls in this bucket, but so too does Tillis. Colorado’s Cory Gardner and Arizona’s Martha McSally, who haven’t tipped their hands yet, also qualify. For these senators, showing some independence from Trump might be smart politics. In the House, the average Republican to break with Trump on Tuesday came from a district with a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of about R+16; the average “no” Republican came from a R+28 district. Then, there are the statesman senators, such as Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander, Utah’s Mitt Romney, and Nebraska’s Ben Sasse. They like to project images that they are above partisanship and instead act in the national interest. I would not be surprised if one of these men joins the Democrats. Finally, watch Utah’s Mike Lee and Kentucky’s Rand Paul, who I would categorize as kind of maverick-y in the Senate. So let’s assume at least one of those Republicans joins Collins, Tillis and Murkowski and this bill passes the Senate, but is then vetoed by Trump. That veto is likely to stand. Only 13 of the 195 House Republicans who voted on the measure joined with the Democrats, far below the more than 50 House Republicans who would be needed for a veto override. Even if all of the Republicans in the most competitive districts who voted with Trump this time around decide to vote with the House Democrats in the next vote, the resolution would still need more than two dozen additional votes from Republicans to pass the House. Those would have to come from members in clearly conservative districts (those that lean more than 10 points toward the GOP). That is unlikely, particularly since Republican voters overwhelmingly support Trump’s national emergency policy. In the Senate, 20 Republicans would need to join Democrats to override a Trump veto, but there aren’t nearly that many GOP members who come from purpleish states and break with Trump relatively often. I made a list of every Senate Republican that somewhat resembles the Republicans who voted “yes” in the House and I got only 10 names: Murkowski, Collins, Rick Scott, Mike Braun, John Kennedy, Josh Hawley, Steve Daines, Patrick J. Toomey, Lindsey Graham and Ron Johnson. And it’s hard to imagine even some of those 10 voting to overturn a presidential veto. In short, on the national emergency policy, Trump’s party is not totally unified behind him, but for now, they appear to be unified enough. House votes to end Trump’s national emergency<doc-sep>WASHINGTON – The House voted 245-182 Tuesday to block President Donald Trump's declaration of a national emergency along the southern border, but Democrats didn’t win enough support from Republicans to overcome Trump’s threatened veto. Only 13 Republicans joined all Democrats in backing the measure, even though many had warned against the declaration. GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington said she was “100 percent in favor of President Trump’s wall" but Congress shouldn't give up its power delegated by the Constitution. "When that power is delegated to the executive or judicial branches, representatives become elected bystanders and ‘We the People’ no longer have a voice," McMorris Rodgers said. The GOP-controlled Senate must weigh in on the "privileged resolution" within 18 days. Vice President Mike Pence and legal experts discussed the emergency declaration with Republican senators during their weekly caucus lunch Tuesday. Several senators said afterward they were still processing the information. “One thing that’s not in debate in our conference – we really do think there’s a crisis at the border,” said Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. “There are different points of view about how to address that.” Trump declared an emergency this month after Congress sent to the president a bipartisan funding bill that failed to meet his demand for $5.7 billion for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump took the action to free up billions from other sources to pay for the barrier. Democrats have said the declaration is unconstitutional and are using a provision from the National Emergencies Act to try to halt the president. "If the president is successful in getting his way on this, rest assured he will come back, he will try this again, probably on other issues, as will future presidents. The Congress must step up," said Rep. Joaquin Castro, the Texas Democrat leading the effort. Hours before the vote, Trump formally threatened to veto the legislation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the core of the Constitution that lawmakers swore to uphold is the separation of powers between the three branches of government. "Perhaps it’s time for our country to have a civics lesson," Pelosi said before the vote. "Our founders rejected the idea of a monarch." As the resolution moves to the Senate, here's what you need to know: Which Senate Republicans have said they’ll support the measure? The national emergency has been controversial for Republicans, many of whom warned the president his move could set a bad precedent. But it is unclear how many will publicly oppose the president and vote to terminate the order. On Monday night, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican, announced he would vote in favor of a resolution that disapproved of the national emergency in an op-ed in the Washington Post. "As a U.S. senator, I cannot justify providing the executive with more ways to bypass Congress," Tillis wrote. "As a conservative, I cannot endorse a precedent that I know future left-wing presidents will exploit to advance radical policies that will erode economic and individual freedoms." GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have also indicated support for the measure in its current form. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Arizona, said Tuesday night she was "seeking assurances that the money will not come from Arizona military construction projects" for her vote. Will the resolution pass the Senate? After passing the House on Tuesday, the resolution must be taken up within 18 days by the Senate, where its future remains unclear. Most legislation that comes up in the Senate requires 60 votes to pass. However, because this resolution is considered "privileged," it needs just 51 votes, increasing the chances of passage. There are 47 Senate Democrats – none of whom have spoken against the resolution – so if the Democrats stay unified only four Republicans would need to cross party lines. Tillis, Collins and Murkowski already have said they would if the legislation remains the same as it was introduced. Why does this resolution get special treatment? Normally legislation comes up for a vote at the discretion of the speaker or majority leader. That means if a lawmaker introduces legislation the leadership doesn't want to deal with, the bill may not be brought up for a vote. But because this resolution comes from the National Emergencies Act, once it is introduced it must come up for a vote. Are there other options? If Congress is unable to halt the national emergency through the legislative process, members could still file lawsuits, a move Pelosi did not rule out during a press conference last week. California and 15 other states have already filed a lawsuit over the declaration, arguing it exceeds the power of the president and unconstitutionally redirects federal money that would have gone to their states. And the liberal watchdog group Public Citizen filed a lawsuit on behalf of Texas landowners who were told their property would be seized for the wall. Contributing: Deborah Barfield Berry, John Fritze, Alan Gomez, Christal Hayes Donald Trump declares national emergency to free up billions of dollars for border wall 16 states sue Trump over national emergency declaration, border wall The Wall: An in-depth examination of Donald Trump's border wall<doc-sep>
WASHINGTON — The House passed a resolution Tuesday evening that would terminate President Donald Trump's declaration of a national emergency, voting 245-182. Thirteen House Republicans joined Democrats to vote in favor of the resolution. The measure, sponsored by Rep. Joaquín Castro, D-Texas, is intended to stop the president's use of billions of dollars in existing federal funds to build a wall on the southern border without congressional approval. The Senate, where the vote is likely to be close, is required to hold a vote within 18 days on the resolution, which Trump can veto if it passes Congress. "We’ve got 230 co-sponsors," Castro had said in an interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" Tuesday morning — more than the number of votes needed for passage. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina on Monday evening became the third Republican to say that he plans to back the resolution once it reaches the upper chamber. "As a U.S. senator, I cannot justify providing the executive with more ways to bypass Congress," Tillis wrote in an op-ed in The Washington Post. "As a conservative, I cannot endorse a precedent that I know future left-wing presidents will exploit to advance radical policies that will erode economic and individual freedoms," he added. "These are the reasons I would vote in favor of the resolution disapproving of the president’s national-emergency declaration, if and when it comes before the Senate." Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Susan Collins, R-Maine, have also both indicated that they would vote in favor of the resolution. That leaves one more GOP vote needed for passage in the Senate, which would be an embarrassment to the president. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who has said that he supports Trump's declaration, wouldn't definitively say Tuesday whether he thinks the president's decision is legal. He said that Senate Republicans had had a "robust, vigorous discussion" about the move's legality during their closed-door lunch earlier in the day, which was attended by Vice President Mike Pence and a lawyer from the Department of Justice. "Well, we're in the process of weighing that," McConnell told NBC's Kasie Hunt when asked if he thought the declaration was legal. "The lawyer was there to make his argument, there were some counter arguments. I haven't reached a total conclusion about (it).... but we had some real serious lawyers in there discussing that very issue." Under the National Emergencies Act of 1976, Congress has the ability to try to end an emergency status instituted by the president. Once it passes the House, the measure would be sent to the Senate, where — unlike most legislation — GOP leaders could not block it from reaching the floor. Federal law requires that the Senate take up the House-passed resolution within 18 days. Assuming all Senate Democrats supported the resolution, only four Republicans would need to defect for Democrats to secure the 51 votes needed to send it to the president’s desk. Administration aides have already made clear Trump would veto any effort that interfered with his declaration, and the measure is unlikely to attract anywhere near the GOP support needed to overturn a presidential veto.