Notwithstanding their ideological pretensions, there was nothing unholy or unnatural about the PDP-BJP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir.And regardless of the spin the two parties put both while getting into bed together, and after their break-up, it was a purely political deal for political purposes, just like any other such deal anywhere else in the country — Karnataka comes to mind immediately. Coalition logic On paper at least, there was logic in the coalition. First, the math thrown up by the state election meant that short of going in for another election, this was the only workable coalition. Second, the fact that PDP predominantly represented the Valley and BJP Jammu region meant that their constituencies didn’t overlap, and to that extent they were complementary to each other, at least insofar as J&K was concerned. Finally, the fractured and regionally split mandate meant that this coalition promised all regions representation in the state government. But while the math and logic commended the coalition, the chemistry militated against it. In the end, it was negative chemistry and the fact that the BJP’s national political interests conflicted with its obsession for being part of the J&K government that led to the break-up. Forget the nationalist gloss that the BJP is putting on its decision, the bottom line is that the coalition wasn’t working on the ground. While the PDP that failed to bring around its constituency to support the coalition, the BJP’s core constituency also sulked over the compromise with what it saw as a soft separatist party. After a three-year-long roller-coaster cohabitation, the coalition had indeed become untenable — politically, it was damaging both parties which felt that continuing with the alliance would only bring diminishing returns; the governance was feckless and administration was dysfunctional; the security situation was deteriorating by the day and the government was unable to arrest the slide; ideologically, the incongruity of the alliance was becoming increasingly unmanageable. Photo: PTI The talk of imposing the Governor’s rule had been in the air for months. To be fair to both parties, at least at the top leadership level, efforts were made to cut some slack for the partners on controversial issues — among other things, withdrawing cases against stone-pelters, the position taken by the government on the Article 35A issue, and of course, the Ramzan ceasefire. The failure of the ceasefire, not just in terms of the attacks that took place but also in terms of the inability of the PDP to initiate a political reconciliation process of any sort, seemed to be the last straw for the alliance. A big part of the problem was that the PDP was unable to end its “soft on separatists” politics. In fact, in her press conference after the BJP withdrew from the coalition, Mehbooba Mufti alluded to all that her party had done to provide relief and even succour to the separatist/terrorist gang. The PDP’s continuing flirtation with the separatists and terrorists was proving to be very damaging for the BJP in rest of India, robbing it of one of its self-arrogated USPs of being tough on national security. With the alliance now broken, both parties will play to their galleries — the PDP has already started singing the tune of how it had tried to protect the people from a heavy-handed crackdown, while the BJP is blowing its trumpet on how the government will now go hell for leather after the terrorists. The problem, however, is that the political flight path in the state remains riven with uncertainty. The BJP seems muddled about the roadmap for the future. The party’s point-man on Kashmir has declared that “in order to bring situation under control, we have decided that is it time... for a spell of the Governor’s rule. After the situation is restored, we will consider what to do in the future…” Future roadmap Sounds good in theory but the situation is unlikely to be “restored” or “stabilised” in weeks or months, and may even take a few years. Going in for a fresh mandate isn’t possible in the foreseeable future. After all, if it wasn’t possible to hold a by-election in the Lok Sabha constituency vacated by the chief minister, then holding state-wide elections seems inconceivable any time soon. Even if by some miracle the situation evolves in a way that allows for elections to be held in the next few months, it will only mean going back to where we started when the Governor’s rule was imposed. This is because without first dismantling the ecosystem that nurtures and sustains separatism and terrorism — cleansing the administration, weeding out subversives and agent provocateurs, demolishing the funding networks of separatists, detoxifying the educational institutions, all of which will take a lot of doing — restoring the political process will tantamount to repeating the entire sordid cycle once again. Political games But a prolonged Governor’s, or President’s rule, will bring with it its own problems. Once the initial euphoria over the end of an increasingly dysfunctional, corrupt and unpopular government is over, discontent with the bureaucratic dispensation will invariably start to set in. At that stage, there will no longer be the buffer of a political leadership to take the flak for non-delivery of services and non-redressal of grievances. The entire ire will be directed on New Delhi. We would also do well to remember that restoring the political process in 1996 after a long spell on Central rule, has often been touted as a signal achievement, something we have used often to our advantage in international forums. The Indian state must use the opportunity that the political crisis has offered to fix the many things that are broken in the state. More importantly, once the situation is retrieved, we shouldn’t make the mistake of lifting our eye off the ball and letting things slide again. Finally, all parties must eschew the temptation of playing silly political games of the sorts played in the 1980s which pushed things over the edge. (Courtesy of Mail Today) Also read: How Rahul Gandhi's Mandsaur speech has started a war of facts between Congress and BJP<doc-sep>NEW DELHI: The BJP on Tuesday pulled out of the "untenable" alliance with the PDP in Jammu and Kashmir "It has become untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government in the state", BJP general secretary Ram Madhav said at a press conference.He said the BJP favoured governor's rule in the state.In an 87-member J&K assembly, PDP has 28 MLAs while the BJP has 25 MLAs. The National Conference has 15 MLAs and Congress has 12 members. Rest 7 seats are divided among other parties and Independents.In the current scenario, a government needs supports of at least 44 MLAs to prove its majority on the floor of the house. Here is what may happen next in the state.1. Going by the present numbers, a stable government is possible only if PDP, the National Conference and Congress joined hands. Congress, as of now, has ruled out to be a part of the PDP government. "That question does not arise (on forming alliance with PDP)," Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad told reporters on Tuesday.2. PDP, the National Conference and some Independents may come together and form a government.3. Third, technically the PDP may also run a minority government provided the National Conference, Congress and others decide to abstain during the trust vote.4. In case no party comes forward to stake a claim to form the government, the assembly may be suspended, and governor's rule will be imposed in the state.<doc-sep>BJP pulls out of alliance with PDP LIVE UPDATES: Minutes after the announcement was made, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti handed her resignation to Governor N N Vohra. (Source: Prem Nath Pandey) BJP pulls out of alliance with PDP LIVE UPDATES: Minutes after the announcement was made, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti handed her resignation to Governor N N Vohra. (Source: Prem Nath Pandey) The Bharatiya Janata Party pulled out of its alliance with the People’s Democratic Party in Jammu-Kashmir on Tuesday, three years after the two parties came together following a hung verdict in 2014. The decision to end the alliance came on the day J&K BJP ministers arrived in New Delhi to meet party president Amit Shah. Minutes after the announcement was made, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti handed her resignation to Governor NN Vohra. Addressing a press conference, the party’s J&K in-charge, Ram Madhav, said it has become untenable for the BJP to continue in this government. “After taking stock of the situation in the state, the central government and central party is of the view that we should leave the government,” he said. On the issue of Ramzan ceasefire, Madhav said it was not reciprocated by separatists or militants. “Keeping national interest in mind and that Kashmir is an integral part of India, we have to say it is time that the reins of power in the state be handed over to the governor,” he said. Meanwhile, National Conference chief Omar Abdullah met Governor N N Vohra and said his party doesn’t have the mandate to form the government.<doc-sep>Politics in India is going to pieces - like PDP-BJP recently. As political fragmentation leads to splintering of votes, coalitions are becoming inevitable. Politics in India is going to pieces – literally. As political and social fragmentation leads to splintering of votes among parties, coalitions become inevitable, even if they look 'unholy'. But that isn't unique to India. Europe is already notorious for coalitions of the weirdest kind. Only ten days after HD Kumaraswamy became Karnataka's chief minister on 23 May, with just 36 seats in the Assembly of 224 members, Pedro Sánchez took oath as Spain's prime minister with 84 seats in a Parliament of 350. A day before that spectacle in Spain, political novice Giuseppe Conte of Italy, who had allegedly lied about his educational qualifications, became his country's prime minister because two coalition partners couldn't find a better "compromise" candidate. So, what's special about India's coalition politics? A do-or-die game of self-preservation by parties, perhaps? Even that isn't an Indian copyright. But in India, it also comes with a good measure of puppet governors, rank opportunism, nexus with criminals, notes for votes, resort politics and a total lack of public accountability. All these horrors were brought in by Congress and are diligently followed by other parties as well. And Europe doesn't have as many parties – leave alone regional parties – as India. A continent-sized nation, India has, besides the six national parties, 95 recognised and unrecognised state parties. According to one count, 138 state governments have been formed in India since 1977, and 40 of these were coalitions with an average life of not more than 26 months. For India's national, as well as regional parties, a mad desire to win the next election by hook or crook, more by crook, is also a compelling factor that makes them dive in and out of alliances. 2019 beckons BJP, Congress Just around the time BJP ended its alliance with PDP on Tuesday, Kumaraswamy said in Bengaluru that he would present a "full budget" for 2018-19 but not a supplementary one. What both BJP in Jammu and Kashmir and JD (S) in Karnataka have in mind is the 2019 General election. One of the reasons why BJP dumped PDP was that it didn't want to be part of its partner's 'kid-gloves' policy on terrorists. That wouldn't hold BJP in good stead when it faces polls in 2019, would it? Similarly, if Kumaraswamy wants to present a full budget, it's because he wants to take credit for all the schemes that might be in it when he goes to voters in 2019. But never mind if Congress had already presented a budget for the year before the 12 May Assembly election. He doesn't want to be seen as dusting off an old budget and make it look like a new one. He wants a really new one. And Congress, which wants its own budget to be implemented, insists that Kumaraswamy should only present a supplementary one. But Kumaraswamy has got the nod from Rahul Gandhi for what he wants to do. There are other alliances, of course. BJP has 15 chief ministers in India, and three of them — in Maharashtra, Goa and, to some extent, in Assam — need support from allies for survival. After the collapse of the Jammu and Kashmir alliance, there are only the governments in Bihar, Meghalaya and Nagaland which need BJP's support for their continuation. The government in Karnataka must have the backing of Congress for its survival. From the point of view of the politics of existing coalitions, the key states to watch are Maharashtra, Bihar and Karnataka. If BJP has refused to succumb to the pressures of PDP in Kashmir, Congress has meekly surrendered to JD(S) in Karnataka. Congress commits harakiri? This capitulation by Congress president to the regional party is so complete that his local leaders say that, if this situation continues, the party will commit a political harakiri in 2019 and may not exist in Karnataka after that. It's safe to presume that many Congress leaders will soon hatch plans to defeat their own alliance to retain their own strangleholds on their respective fiefdoms. From the Karnataka alliance, Gandhi may achieve the opposite of what he wants to. But JD (S) isn't the first party to play this game. Nor will it be the last. Recent history is replete with such examples. Trinamool Congress is one such. The party had joined NDA during the 2004 elections, left the alliance in 2007, joined UPA and left that too in 2012, allegedly over economic issues. TMC chief Mamata Banerjee now says she is fighting BJP, deftly suggesting that if the prime minister's post comes her way, she will not shirk the responsibility of saving India by accepting it. But, of course, saving West Bengal with her leadership takes precedence over saving the nation. Similar is the case of many parties including Telugu Desam, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the two Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu who drifted in and out of national alliances for their own regional considerations. National parties ditching regional partners to suit their Lok Sabha election plans is only the natural corollary of it. Rainbow coalitions On BJP dumping PDP, its chief pointsman for Kashmir Ram Madhav said: "... this was a historical alliance. We do not believe in political untouchability. Ideologies are black and white, but politics in democracy has many shades. It is multi-layered and multi-coloured. If you succeed in managing these colours, you can create a nice rainbow. Let me end the metaphor there because rainbows naturally have a very short life." Like the many poets who waxed lyrical about "chasing rainbows", India's voters may have to go on watching the colourful clouds drift by and see their dreams end in the sky. Author tweets @sprasadindia<doc-sep>
Incompetence always fails: Rahul The Opposition parties reacted sharply to the BJP’s decision to pull out of the alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party in Jammu and Kashmir, accusing the Union government of running away after pushing the State off the precipice. The Congress, which holds 12 seats in the Assembly, has ruled out stitching together an alliance with other two Kashmiri parties — the PDP and the National Conference. “The opportunistic BJP-PDP alliance set fire to Jammu and Kashmir, killing many innocent people, including our brave soldiers. It cost India strategically and destroyed years of the UPA’s hard work. The damage will continue under President’s rule. Incompetence, arrogance and hatred always fails,” Congress president Rahul Gandhi said in a tweet. Ceasefire violations In the past three-and-a-half years, under the BJP-PDP rule, the State saw the most ceasefire violations, deaths of security personnel and civilians, former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad said. For the first time, he said children lost their eyesight, thanks to pellet guns. “After all of this, the BJP is now washing its hands of it. The BJP and the PDP both are responsible for this mess. The BJP, however, has double responsibility because it is in the government at the Centre too,” he said. Mr. Azad ruled out any efforts to cobble together an alliance at this stage. “There was a time we could have formed government together with the PDP and the NC. But at that time the PDP rushed to the BJP’s lap,” he said. Former Home Minister P. Chidambaram in a tweet said, “The long awaited break of the PDP-BJP coalition will be welcomed by all those who despaired that Kashmir may have been lost forever.” Political instability The CPI (M) Polit Bureau in a statement said the BJP’s decision to pull out of government would create ‘greater political instability’. “It was an alliance between forces that never saw eye to eye on any issue but came together in an act of sheer opportunism to share the spoils of office,” the CPI(M) said. Party general secretary Sitaram Yechury rued that the State had come to a “sorry pass.” “The people of Jammu & Kashmir have suffered heavily due to the confused and ham-handed policies at Centre and State. It has brought the situation to a sorry pass, which was unimaginable three years ago,” he said. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in a tweet said, “After ruining it, BJP pulls out of Kashmir. Didn’t BJP tell us that demonetisation had broken the back of terrorism in Kashmir? Then what happened?”