Attorney General Janet Mills jumped ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination to run for governor in early returns Tuesday night, but Adam Cote was also breaking away from the seven-candidate field. Mills had about 33 percent of the vote according to returns collected through midnight, compared with 29 percent for Cote. The rest of the field had garnered less than 16 percent of the vote, but the results remained uncertain with ranked-choice voting tallies later this week holding the potential to sway the race. But ranked-choice voting — new to Maine with this election — could alter the candidates’ positions in later tabulations, which are scheduled to start Friday under the oversight of Secretary of State Matt Dunlap. It appears that former Biddeford mayor Donna Dion — with the fewest votes — will be eliminated, with her voters’ second-choice votes added to the existing first-place tallies. If no candidate garners more than 50 percent of the vote during that tabulation, the candidate ranked last after that count would be eliminated and his or her second-choice votes would be reallocated. [election_race race=”2332″ source=”ddhq” from=”shortcode” rr_message=”” rr_link=””] The race is crowded, but not as crowded as it could have been. In late 2017, about a dozen Democrats clamored to qualify for the ballot. The deadline for that passed in March and eliminated some of the hopefuls, leaving Maine with the seven-person race that culminated Tuesday. Though the candidates agreed on most issues, some differences emerged and highlighted an ideological split between staunch progressives like Mark Eves, Betsy Sweet, Diane Russell and Mark Dion and other candidates — notably, Cote and Mills — who espoused more traditional and, in some cases, moderate stances. The candidates participated in approximately 50 debates and joint forums during the past few months, courting an electorate that was for the most part not very engaged, as is usually the case in primary elections. The debates were mostly cordial affairs until fundraising totals began to show momentum for Cote, Eves and Mills and a poll released by the Bangor Daily News in early June showed Mills and Eves in front. Still, nearly a quarter of the poll’s participants said they remained undecided and the poll quickly grew stale as the television, radio, social media and mailing expenditures began. Democrats have already poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the governor’s race and third-party groups have piled on more. For example, EMILY’s List dumped $300,000 into the race in June on behalf of Mills in ads that criticized Cote. All of the candidates brought a heavy dose of anti-LePage rhetoric to the campaign, though it was not as fervent as it was in 2014 during LePage’s successful re-election bid. For his part, the governor has been more measured in the runup to the primary, though he ripped Mills publicly in May for a campaign advertisement he said distorted his record on cuts to the Medicaid program. Mills responded that her characterization that LePage booted “kids” was accurate because Medicaid rules refer to 19- and 20-year-olds as “children.” There are clear repercussions in store if a Democrat wins the general election in November, including the fact that all of the candidates are fully supportive of Medicaid expansion and most of them want a single-payer health care system. It might be several days before the primary winner is known. Dunlap has said that ranked-choice tallying won’t begin until Friday, after ballots and memory devices containing voter data are transported from municipalities across Maine to Augusta. For a roundup of Maine political news, click here for the Daily Brief. Click here to get Maine’s only newsletter on state politics via email on weekday mornings. Follow the Bangor Daily News on Facebook for the latest Maine news.<doc-sep>Mills, Cote in tight race for Democratic nomination for governor Share Shares Copy Link Copy Hide Transcript Show Transcript WEBVTT AUGUSTA, WHO’S BEEN KEEPING TRACK OF THE DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY. GOOD MORNING, KATHLEEN. KATHLEEN: GOOD MORNING TO YOU. THE SUN IS UP, BUT THERE IS STILL NO DEFINITE WINNER TO THIS RACE. JANET MILLS AND ADAM COTE, THIS WILL LIKELY GO TO THE RANKED-CHOICE VOTING, SO THE QUESTION IS -- WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? THIS IS ON THE FORMER AUGUSTA MENTAL INSTITUTE, AND THE ELKINS BUILDING. WE ARE NOT TOLD WHERE IN THE BUILDING, BUT WE ARE TOLD IN A SECURE LOCATION. BOTH MILLS AND COTE SAYS THEY KNEW THIS WOULD BE INTERESTING. LAST NIGHT, MILLS TELLING HER SUPPORTERS SHE’S PROUD OF THE CAMPAIGN THEY RAN, AND SHE’S PROUD OF HER FELLOW CANDIDATES, CALLING THEM FRIENDS, AND A SIMILAR STORY FOR COTE, WHO REMAINED OPTIMISTIC HE COULD GRAB THE NOMINATION, THANKING HIS SUPPORTERS THAT WE GATHERED. THEY BOTH KNOW THIS COULD TAKE A WHILE. MR. COTE: WE ABSOLUTELY KNEW IT WOULD NOT BE A BLOW-OUT, PARTICULARLY WITH RANKED-CHOICE VOTING. THIS IS GOING TO BE WITHIN A FEW POINTS TONIGHT. IT’S GOING TO GO PROBABLY ABOUT A WEEK, AND WE DON’T KNOW H IT’S GOING TO END UP. MS. MILLS: YOU KNOW, I THINK WE’VE RUN A VERY POSITIVE CAMPAIGN. THAT’S OUR GOAL. THAT’S OUR INTENT. THAT’S WHAT WE’VE DONE. AND SO I THINK I WOULD HAVE DONE THAT ANYWAY. BUT TO HAVE SIX OTHER PEOPLE IN THE RACE IS INTERESTING TO BEGIN WITH. TO HAVE SIX OTHER PEOPLE IN THE RACE WHERE WE’RE NEVER GOING TO KNOW WHO IS IN FRONT REALL KATHLEEN: SO AGAIN, WE DO KNOW THAT THOSE VOTES WILL BE COUNTED IN THIS BUILDING BEHIND ME. WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE IN THE BUILDING, BUT IT IS A SECURE SPOT. THE SECRETARY’S OFFICE SAYING THEY WILL RECEIVE GET OUR POLITICS NEWSLETTER Stay up to speed on all the latest local and national political news. Submit Privacy Notice<doc-sep>Maine voters overwhelmingly supported Medicaid expansion last November, but it still hasn’t happened yet. And it may just be their vote to choose the next governor that finally finishes the job. Outgoing Republican Gov. Paul LePage has deployed every tool at his disposal to stop Maine from expanding Medicaid to 70,000 of Maine’s poorest residents, as voters said they wanted in a 2017 ballot initiative by an overwhelming 18-point margin. Claiming it would cost too much money for the state (the vast majority of the cost is shouldered by the federal government), LePage’s government missed the April deadline set in the ballot initiative to officially expand the program under the Affordable Care Act. But LePage is term-limited, forced out of office in 2019. The race to replace him should be one of 2018’s most competitive gubernatorial elections in the country, giving Democrats a major chance to reclaim a governorship. Mainers will vote this Tuesday to select Democratic and Republican candidates for the general election, under a new ranked-choice system. Expansion supporters are pursuing legal action against LePage to force him into implementing it quickly. But if courts don’t rule in their favor or if the fight drags out, the fate of Medicaid expansion is very much at stake in the fall election. All the major Democratic candidates want to expand the program as soon as possible. All the Republicans oppose it. Paul LePage’s Medicaid expansion obstruction, briefly explained Paul LePage really hates Medicaid expansion. He vetoed five different bills passed by the Maine legislature to expand the program under Obamacare, arguing that it was too expensive for the state, even though the federal government initially covered 100 percent of the costs and will cover 90 percent in perpetuity. He has sought to cut the existing Medicaid program by instituting work requirements and requiring beneficiaries to pay more out of pocket for health care. When Maine voters said they wanted to expand Medicaid, LePage was still defiant. He said he would only expand the program if state lawmakers came up with some very specific and potentially unrealistic ways to pay for it — conditions that were not set in the ballot initiative that voters approved. Medicaid expansion supporters quickly sued to try to force LePage to expand Medicaid under the referendum. They are winning too: Last week, a state judge ordered LePage to file paperwork for Medicaid expansion very soon. The governor’s office has already appealed the court decision. If the courts back up expansion supporters, the state could be compelled to follow the ballot initiative before the end of the LePage administration. But it is possible — whether because they lose in court or because the next state legislature and governor need to appropriate the state’s share of the costs — that the issue won’t be resolved before LePage leaves office. The next governor could also try to roll back the expansion once they get into office. “The next governor could act to thwart that or to try to repeal the law. So the gubernatorial obviously matters,” Robyn Merrill, executive director of Maine Equal Justice Partners, which is leading the legal fight for expansion, told me. “But it is our hope and it is more than likely that people will be getting coverage under expansion before next January.” The Democratic candidates for governor are ready to expand Medicaid Whatever differences there are among the Democratic candidates, Medicaid expansion is not one of them. Every major candidate wants Maine to finally follow through and expand coverage to its poorest residents. “The evidence is overwhelming: states that expand Medicaid have lower healthcare costs, healthier citizens, more stable hospital systems and stronger economic growth,” Janet Mills, Maine’s attorney general, who is considered the leading Democratic contender, told a local newspaper. “I’m fully committed to ensuring Medicaid expansion is implemented now, in accordance with the will of the people.” In the best poll we have of the race, Mills — attorney general since 2013, a state lawmaker before that — was way ahead of the field, with 32 percent of the vote. But Maine is using a new, first-of-its-kind ranked voting system, which adds a little more uncertainty to the race. In a traditional primary election, the candidate who gets the most votes, whatever that number is, wins. Obviously. But here is how Maine’s new voting system works, as helpfully described by the Huffington Post’s Sam Levine: Voters rank the candidates in their party’s primary in order of preference. If no candidate gets an outright majority, the candidate who got the fewest first-place votes is eliminated. The second-place votes of those who supported the eliminated candidate then get distributed to the remaining candidates. The process continues until one candidate gets more than 50 percent of the first-place votes and is declared the winner. So while Mills is the frontrunner, she has some credible challengers. Mark Eves, a former Maine House speaker, had 16 percent of the vote, good enough for second place, in the poll we have. State Sen. Mark Dion had 10 percent. Democratic organizer Adam Cote was the other notable finisher at 9 percent. Whichever candidate emerges from the process will be a Democrat who wants to expand Medicaid. The Republican candidates want to keep blocking Medicaid expansion Meanwhile, a victorious Republican candidate in the governor’s race could continue to gum up the Medicaid expansion process. Every prominent GOP candidate is following LePage’s lead and opposes it, no matter the outcome of last November’s referendum. (And, on the whole, they are tying themselves as closely as they can to the outgoing governor.) Business executive Shawn Moody, the leader in the Republican primary based on the best available polling, effectively deemed the 2017 vote in favor of Medicaid expansion invalid in a statement to the Portsmouth Herald: Out-of-state interests came into Maine with large sums of money to put this issue on the ballot and pass it, without a plan to pay for it. Most Maine people were not told about the significant price tag attached. Gov. LePage just paid off a $750 million debt to Maine’s hospitals, as a result of the last failed Medicaid expansion. Someone who is not disabled should contribute some amount to their own costs. This welfare expansion will not strengthen Maine’s economy. I will not support funding Medicaid expansion by raising taxes on hard working Mainers or job creators. Much like Mills on the Democratic side, Moody looks like the frontrunner — he had 36 percent of the vote in that poll — but he doesn’t seem to have a majority and faces several credible Republican challengers. Mary Mayhew — who, as LePage’s top health official, has been instrumental in helping to block the Medicaid expansion — came in second at 19 percent, and she has also said she will continue to oppose it. Garrett Mason, the Maine Senate majority leader, registered third at 15 percent, and House Minority Leader Ken Fredette was fourth with 10 percent. So in a mirror image of the Democratic content, there seems to be no daylight between the Republican candidates on Medicaid expansion. They all want to stop it. Whoever emerges from both parties’ primaries, the November general election should be competitive. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, while the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball thinks it leans toward the Democrats. LePage is pretty unpopular: 41 percent of Mainers approve of his job performance and 53 percent disapprove, according to Morning Consult. Then again, he’s been elected twice and Donald Trump lost narrowly (3 points) in 2016. In the end, Democrats should have an advantage, and they have a popular issue in Medicaid expansion at their back. For more on Medicaid, please listen to the June 11 episode of Today Explained.<doc-sep>
Maine is doing something weird: ranked voting. Voters in the Democratic and Republican primaries will rank their candidates in preferred order. If no candidate gets 50 percent on the first go, the lowest-ranked candidate will be eliminated and the second-place votes of their voters will be distributed. That will be repeated until a candidate hits 50 percent. Beyond the potential chaos of Maine’s overall voting system this year, there will be closely watched primaries for both the governor’s seat (current Republican Gov. Paul LePage is term-limited) and the Democratic primary challenging Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin. Polls close at 8 pm Eastern time. We will have live results for the Senate and key House races below, powered by Decision Desk. Maine governor Democratic primary: Janet Mills leads the field to reclaim the office for Democrats In the best poll we have of the race, Janet Mills — Maine’s attorney general since 2013, and a state lawmaker before that — was way ahead of the field, with 32 percent of the vote. So while she is the frontrunner, she has some credible challengers. Mark Eves, a former Maine House speaker, had 16 percent of the vote, good enough for second place, in the poll we have. State Sen. Mark Dion had 10 percent. Democratic organizer Adam Cote was the other notable finisher, at 9 percent. Maine governor Republican primary: all the major candidates are hugging close to outgoing Gov. Paul LePage Business executive Shawn Moody is the leader in the Republican primary based on the best available polling, sitting at 36 percent. But he doesn’t seem to have a majority and faces several credible Republican challengers. Mary Mayhew — who, as LePage’s top health official, has been instrumental in helping to block the Medicaid expansion — came in second at 19 percent, and she has also said she will continue to obstruct expansion. Garrett Mason, the Maine Senate majority leader, registered third at 15 percent, and House Minority Leader Ken Fredette was fourth with 10 percent. Whoever emerges from both parties’ primaries, the November general election should be competitive. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, while the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball thinks it leans toward the Democrats. LePage is pretty unpopular: 41 percent of Mainers approve of his job performance and 53 percent disapprove, according to Morning Consult. Then again, he’s been elected twice and Donald Trump lost narrowly (3 points) in 2016. Maine’s Second Congressional District Democratic primary: Democrats look for a candidate to challenge Republican Bruce Poliquin State Rep. Jared Golden, bookseller Craig Olson, and nonprofit director Lucas St. Clair make up the field. Golden and St. Clair have the lead on fundraising. Golden is a veteran of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and a former staffer for Maine Sen. Susan Collins. St. Clair is a conservationist and the son of Burt’s Bees founder Roxanne Quimby. He played an active role in pressing then-President Barack Obama to preserve Katahdin Woods and Waters as a national monument. Two-term incumbent Bruce Poliquin seeks to defend his seat. While Trump took this district in 2016 — marking an unprecedented split of Maine’s electoral votes — Democrats aim to focus on health care in an effort to flip voters. Poliquin was one of the swing votes on the House Obamacare repeal bill, and his vote in favor of the plan is likely to be held against him. Cook says this district is just R+2 (meaning it leans just 2 points toward Republicans compared to the nation as a whole) and rates it Lean Republican.