There’s a lot separating Drew Brees and Jared Goff. In addition to the 16 years between them, Brees’ numbers are staggering when compared to Goff’s – as any 18-year veteran’s stats would be when lined up next to a third-year quarterback’s. He has 155 wins to Goff’s 24 victories, 74,437 yards to Goff’s 9,581 and only 455 more touchdown passes than the Cal product. “Only.” Yet, as much as there is separating these two quarterbacks, one thing is bringing them together: the NFC championship. All of those stats will be thrown out the window on Sunday when they meet for a spot in the Super Bowl. The only numbers that matter this weekend are the ones on the scoreboard at the Superdome. As crazy as it sounds, Goff grew up watching Brees. He was only 7 years old when Brees was drafted and 10 when he made his first Pro Bowl with the Chargers. When Brees won the Super Bowl after the 2009 season, Goff was 15. He has a huge amount of respect for the future Hall of Famer, but he’s not ready to give him another ring. ” He’s a guy that’s done it. He’s been there. He’s done it and does it the right way, seems like every year. He seems like he’s only getting better. Have so much respect for him and everything he’s brought to the game,” Goff said this week. “Admire how long he’s done it for and what a high level he’s done it for and the way he leads and the way he goes about his business and the way he works. Everything he does is so admirable. Yeah, you’d love to win this game to try to jump into that type of category with winning a couple more. But, he’s a great player and a guy I have a lot of respect for.” This isn’t the first time Brees and Goff have met. In fact, they’ve played three times before with the Saints holding the 2-1 edge. None have been bigger than this one, though, given the circumstances and everything that’s on the line. Goff and Brees also spent time at the Pro Bowl last year, which gave the young quarterback the chance to pick the veteran’s brain a little. “Yeah, of course. I wasn’t going to pry too deeply, but I’d ask him a few questions as far as his warm-up and things he does throughout the week. Little things here and there that he was helpful with,” Goff said. As for what makes Brees so admirable as a player, Goff had this to say. “You see just how professional he is and why he’s been doing it at such a high level for so long,” he said. “I think he’s not necessarily your prototypical with size, speed, strength and all that, but what he does is his professionalism and the way he approaches the game. I have so much respect for him and was able to be around him, like you said, at that Pro Bowl and pick up a little bit from him.” It wasn’t just a one-way street of praise, either. Brees had some high remarks about Goff leading up to this game, saying his future is really bright. “There’s not many guys that are just better pure passers/throwers,” Brees said, via ESPN. “You watch what they do with their offense, there’s a lot of moving parts, and I think he handles it very, very well. He creates great timing and rhythm in the passing game. And obviously he had a phenomenal season last year, but he’s had an even better one this year. The future is really bright for him.” There may not be many similarities between these two quarterbacks as far as the numbers go, but there’s no shortage of mutual respect for each other. That much is abundantly clear.<doc-sep>The final four has been set. On Sunday, the Rams and Saints will battle for supremacy in the NFC while the scrappy underdog Patriots will have a go at taking down the AFC empire better known as the Kansas City Chiefs. You can stream the AFC Championship Game on CBS All Access. It's an incredible slate of games featuring the four highest-seeded teams, the top four scoring teams, arguably the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in Drew Brees, the best quarterback on the planet right now in Patrick Mahomes, and arguably the four best coaches in the NFL right now (though Pete Carroll, whose Seahawks have been eliminated, could have a gripe with that). The point being, while the divisional round resulted in three duds, it did at least result in the four best teams advancing, which should hopefully lead to peak football on Sunday. It's the championship round this fantastic season deserves. Only four teams remain, which means there are only two games to write about, which means you won't find some prolonged opening section breaking down one of the two games. Instead, you'll find one thing: A reminder that before the season, I picked the Saints and Patriots to make it to the Super Bowl. I only bring that up now because I'm coming off one of my worst weeks of the season picking games (thanks for not going for two, Jason Garrett) -- and also because, despite taking the Patriots before the season, I'm picking against them on Sunday. Enough stalling. You'll find both picks below. Last week: 1-3 Overall record: 52-40-1 Gif via Gifer / Footage via Rogue One All odds via SportsLine Saints (-3.5) vs. Rams Something is wrong with Jared Goff. Something has been wrong with him for quite some time. And while his issues haven't really sunk the Rams yet, he's reached the point in the season where he can no longer afford to be mired in a slump. Because if his slump persists on Sunday, the Rams will likely go home. It is, after all, win-or-go-home season. Ever since that win over the Chiefs back in November -- you know the game I'm talking about, of course -- Goff's been a below-average quarterback. Comp % YPA TDs INTs Games 1-11 67.7 9.3 26 6 Games 12-17 58.2 6.4 6 6 Here's the bad news for Goff and the Rams: Out of all the remaining teams, they have to play the one that actually has a pretty good defense. After a rocky start to the season, the Saints' defense finished the year ranked 14th in both yards and points allowed, tied for fifth in sacks, fifth in total pressures, and 11th in DVOA. The total pressures stat, which comes via Sports Info Solutions, and the sacks are the key. Goff has been a wreck under pressure. It's a weakness that has showed up all throughout this rough stretch. Even though the Rams beat the Cowboys last weekend, they didn't win because Goff played well. They won despite Goff, who submitted another underwhelming performance (15 of 28 for 186 yards, no touchdowns, no picks, and a 74.4 passer rating). The Cowboys were able to apply pressure. And it bothered Goff. Example 1: NFL Game Pass Example 2: NFL Game Pass Example 3: NFL Game Pass If the Saints can get after Goff -- losing Sheldon Rankins hurts -- they should be able to hold the Rams' offense in check. The Rams, of course, can still win without Goff playing well. This is an offense that has Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Todd Gurley, and ... C.J. Anderson. On the other side of the ball, they have Aaron Donald, who will be the best player on the field on Sunday. They're coached by Sean McVay and their defense is coordinated by Wade Phillips. The Rams are good enough to win even if Goff's struggles persist. Who wins Rams vs. Saints? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saints vs. Rams spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons. It's just that, the difference between Goff and Brees is too substantial for me to ignore. Like Goff, Brees hasn't been quite himself over the past month or so and he looked a little off against the Eagles, but even when he's off, he's still good enough to throw for 301 yards and two scores. Brees won't be in a hostile environment. Goff will. If you're asking me who I'm taking in a game between Goff and Brees, I'm taking the Brees-led team every single time -- especially when Brees' team has the better defense and the advantage of playing at home. Give me the Saints to win and cover in what should be a fun and close game. They've got the better quarterback, the better defense, and home-field advantage. The pick: Saints -3.5 Chiefs (-3) vs. Patriots I picked the Patriots to make the Super Bowl before the season, but when we resubmitted our picks at the midway point of the season, I chose the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl over the Patriots. For the past couple months, whenever we talked about the AFC on the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe here), I refused to acknowledge the possibility of the Patriots beating the Chiefs if the game wasn't held in Foxborough. Since the season started, I've never thought the Patriots were as talented as the Chiefs. So, when the Patriots beat the Chargers in rather impressive fashion on Sunday and Brady celebrated by latching onto the Patriots' newfound underdog status, I both laughed at the idea of the Patriots thinking they're underdogs nobody believes in, but also kinda understood what he was talking about. The Patriots cruised to an 11-win season and their 10th straight division crown, but people like me spent all season long gushing over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and Philip Rivers and the Chargers while casually throwing out the idea that this could be the beginning of the end of the Patriots' reign. Well, the Patriots aren't dead yet. And they're coming off an absolute bludgeoning of the Chargers. The Patriots are absolutely terrifying, but I'm still taking the Chiefs to win and cover. I don't feel good about it -- for the record, nobody should ever actually bet against Bill Belichick and Brady -- but that's how much I believe in Mahomes and, dare I say it, Andy Reid. The problem the Patriots present is that they can line up and just pound the football against the Chiefs' dreadful run defense. In their Week 6 meeting, which the Patriots won 43-40 in New England, the Patriots rumbled for 173 yards and controlled the ball for just over 36 minutes. Over the course of the season, the Chiefs allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.0). They allowed 6.2 yards per carry against the Colts. The concern is that the Patriots will run the ball effectively, let Brady pick apart the Chiefs underneath, and limit Mahomes' time with the ball. It's a very real concern. Luckily, the Chiefs have a way to stop the Patriots' methodical offensive approach. It has nothing to do with their defense, but everything to do with their offense. The Chiefs need to jump out to an early lead to force the Patriots to enter catch-up mode, which should force them to abandon their run-heavy plans. And if that happens, the Chiefs' only redeeming quality on defense -- their pass rush -- will matter. In the regular season, they generated 52 sacks, tied for the most in football, and 210 pressures, the third-most in football, according to Sports Info Solutions. Against the Colts' offensive line, which allowed only 18 sacks all season long, the Chiefs brought down Andrew Luck three times. Who wins Patriots vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons. The Chiefs are well-equipped to jump out to an early lead. It starts with Reid, who is an absolute master game-planner. We saw it against the Colts, when the Chiefs scored 24 points on five possessions in the first half. The Chiefs need to get an early lead in this game, which is something they didn't do in their first meeting with the Patriots. They trailed 24-9 at halftime of that game. The deficit manifested itself because of Mahomes, not because of Reid. The touchdowns were there for the taking, but Mahomes missed them. Should be a walk-in touchdown. pic.twitter.com/2RDuiCLMwU — Sean Wagner-McGough (@seanjwagner) January 16, 2019 Harder throw, but one we usually see him make. Chiefs have to settle for 3 after those two misses. pic.twitter.com/in2EI08oR6 — Sean Wagner-McGough (@seanjwagner) January 16, 2019 another difficult throw under pressure, but again, we usually see him make these kind of passes. Kelce is wide open. pic.twitter.com/kibOwlLpsQ — Sean Wagner-McGough (@seanjwagner) January 16, 2019 Mahomes also threw two interceptions, one of which led to a Patriots touchdown, the second of which cost the Chiefs at least three points. And yet, despite all of his first-half issues, Mahomes led the Chiefs back to the point where the Patriots needed a walk-off field goal to emerge with a win. The point being, despite Mahomes at his worst for a half, despite the Patriots getting called for zero penalties, and despite the game being held in New England, the Patriots only barely won. What happens if Mahomes doesn't miss those passes this time around? What happens if the Patriots get penalized like a normal team? What happens when the game is played in Kansas City? I'm expecting the Chiefs to come out sizzling, because we already know Reid will show up with a great game-plan and because of Mahomes, who is the best quarterback on the planet. He doesn't usually miss those passes. Furthermore, the location of the game matters. Brady has been an entirely different quarterback on the road in the postseason. He owns a 28-10 record in the playoffs, but on the road (not including neutral site games), he's 3-4. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense has fared significantly better at Arrowhead. I think it'll be a close game. But I'm putting my trust in Mahomes at home instead of Brady on the road. That might seem strange, to be taking a first-year starter over the greatest quarterback of all time, but that's how good Mahomes has been this entire season. He's better than Brady at his very moment. And if Mahomes is at his best, the Chiefs should win. That might seem overly simplistic, but that doesn't make it untrue. Before the season, I picked the Patriots to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I only picked the Patriots because I didn't realize just how good Mahomes would be this early in his career. If Mahomes didn't exist, the Patriots would likely be the favorites on Sunday. They'd likely be waltzing their way to another Super Bowl. But Mahomes does exist. He's this good already. And he's going to be the reason why the Chiefs win on Sunday. The pick: Chiefs -3<doc-sep>
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images One half of Super Bowl LIII is set after the Los Angeles Rams won the 2018 NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Jared Goff had 297 passing yards and a touchdown in the 26-23 overtime win against the New Orleans Saints, helping lead the Rams to the Super Bowl only two years after they finished 4-12. Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein clinched the win with a 57-yard field goal in extra time after an interception by safety John Johnson III. Todd Gurley had only 10 rushing yards, but the rest of the team picked up the slack after a 13-0 early deficit to earn the road victory at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints' impressive season came to an end despite 249 passing yards and two touchdowns from Drew Brees. Jared Goff Silences Doubters, Shows He's More Than a Game Manager Video Play Button Videos you might like The Rams went 13-3 in the regular season, but Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff rarely received credit. Head coach Sean McVay is widely seen as an offensive genius, while running back Todd Gurley and defensive tackle Aaron Donald were considered the top MVP candidates on the roster. Those two were the only non-quarterbacks in the MVP discussion. But against a quality Saints defense Sunday, Goff showed he deserves recognition for what he brings to the table. The quarterback made some outstanding plays in big moments, including an important throw to Brandin Cooks at the end of the first half: His fourth-quarter throw to tight end Gerald Everett on the run on third down also extended the game-tying drive: Despite trailing 13-0 after the first quarter, Goff showed outstanding composure to put his team in position for a comeback victory. Leading field-goal drives to tie and win the game sealed his outstanding effort. He also did so despite getting almost nothing from Gurley throughout the day. Perhaps most impressively, Goff succeeded in a hostile environment in the first road playoff game of his career. The performance also put him in the record books: Heading into the Super Bowl, Goff should not be seen as a game manager who will have to rely upon the rest of the team to help him win. While he has plenty of talent around him, the third-year quarterback will be the one to decide the Rams' fate against the Kansas City Chiefs or New England Patriots. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick will try to put the team on his back once again to bring home a championship. Todd Gurley's Brutal Day a Pivotal Moment in Young Star's Career Although Gurley dealt with a knee injury toward the end of the regular season, he had 115 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round and wasn't on the injury report this past week. He was seemingly healthy coming into the NFC Championship Game. However, he was virtually invisible against the Saints. He finished with only 10 rushing yards on four carries along with one catch for three receiving yards. He also had negative plays that didn't show up in the box score: Gurley barely played in the second half and lost touches to C.J. Anderson, who averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. This was undoubtedly the biggest surprise of the game: Had the Rams lost, Gurley would have been forced to answer questions throughout the offseason about why he disappeared in the biggest moment of the year. The huge four-year, $57.5 million contract he signed before the season would only raise the pressure on him moving forward. However, L.A. escaped with a win, giving Gurley a reprieve. In two weeks, Gurley will have a chance to show what he can do on an even bigger stage. If he returns to form in the Super Bowl, his disappearing act Sunday will become a footnote in his impressive career. But if he's fully healthy and has another dud, it would raise doubts about his value moving forward. Saints Offense Let The Defense Down One of the biggest stories of the 2018 NFL season has been the leaguewide offensive explosion, with creative coaches and elite quarterbacks lighting up the scoreboard. Heading into the conference title games, the top-four-scoring regular-season teams were the last four teams alive. However, the Saints turned that narrative on its head in the NFC Championship Game, as their defense was better than their offense.