Steven Senne/Associated Press The Week 7 slate of NFL odds and spreads once again resembles something of a minefield. Would-be bettors got a harsh reminder of how tricky things can get when Week 6 closed with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers having a brutal time on Monday Night Football against the 1-5 San Francisco 49ers, who were without their starting quarterback. There, Rodgers had to pull some late-game "magic" to get a 33-30 win despite the Packers entering favored by 9.5 points. Oddsmakers are getting bolder in their movements again, hence five opening lines sitting at six points or more. It makes a tougher task on bettors, though those who have kept pace with the news cycle should be able to spot exploitable areas. Week 7 NFL Odds Denver (-2.5) at Arizona | O/U 41 Video Play Button Videos you might like Tennessee at L.A. Chargers (-6.5) | O/U 45.5 Buffalo at Indianapolis (-6.5) | O/U n/a Carolina at Philadelphia (-4.5) | O/U 45.5 Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3) | O/U 49.5 Detroit at Miami (n/a) | O/U n/a Houston at Jacksonville (-4.5) | O/U 42 Minnesota (-3.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 47 New England (-3.5) at Chicago | O/U 49.5 New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5) | O/U 49.5 Dallas at Washington (-1.5) | O/U 41 L.A. Rams (-11) at San Francisco | O/U n/a Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6) | O/U 58.5 N.Y. Giants at Atlanta (-6) | O/U 54.5 Denver (-2.5) at Arizona Jim Mone/Associated Press There is always a bit of guesswork involved in looking at the Thursday Night Football encounter because it is hard to tell which team will respond better to the short week of prep, both in the health and traditional performance departments. This one is even more of a doozy than usual because the Denver Broncos enter at 2-4 and the Arizona Cardinals 1-5. The visiting Broncos have lost four in a row, with the Case Keenum experiment fully a disaster at this point, as he's completing just 63.1 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns against eight interceptions despite a deep cast of weapons at wideout led by Demaryius Thomas. The once-vaunted Denver defense is struggling and has coughed up 27 or more points in three of its last four outings. Since making the change to first-round rookie Josh Rosen, Arizona has at least been competitive in every game. The Cardinals went from opening the season with 24-6 and 34-0 losses to defeats of 16-14 and 20-17 to Chicago and Seattle, respectively, before beating the 49ers 28-18. Rosen's numbers aren't jumping off the page by any means, but he is predictably taking more shots downfield than Sam Bradford. Part of this is due to the defense, where the Cardinals have a huge advantage on a short week: That alone should have bettors rubbing their hands together. Keenum is struggling enough without more injuries up front against a strong Arizona defense. At home, good field position thanks to Rosen should have the Cardinals defense feasting against a struggling offense. Prediction: Cardinals 24, Broncos 21 Tennessee at L.A. Chargers (-6.5) David Richard/Associated Press This is one of the easier lines of the week. Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers are on fire—no matter how little attention they get nationally and how strongly Rivers gets ignored in the MVP conversation. They have rattled off three wins in a row and sit at 4-2 while Rivers has completed 68.6 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. It's the advanced metrics, though, that really help Rivers shine: The vibe is about one thousand percent different for the Tennessee Titans, a 3-3 squad with two losses in a row, including a 13-12 blunder to the Buffalo Bills. Despite the immense upside, Marcus Mariota has only thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions on 118 attempts. The running game, despite the infusion of Dion Lewis, averages 3.7 yards per carry, and a defense thought to be potent at rushing the passer has just 13 sacks. Week 6 paints a brutal picture. During Tennessee's 21-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Mariota completed 10 passes and took 11 sacks. So yes, a Melvin Ingram-led pass rush complemented by the best blitzing safety in football, Derwin James, should have a fun time with the visiting Titans. And no, Rivers and his multiple touchdowns with no more than an interception in every game so far shouldn't have any problems capitalizing on the good field position repeatedly. Prediction: Chargers 28, Titans 17 Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6) Steven Senne/Associated Press The first major flex of the season shoves the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs into a prime-time slot on Sunday Night Football. The Bengals get the nod because they are an upstart 4-2 and leading the AFC North in large part because the Andy Dalton-led offense looks like one of the league's better units. Ditto for the Chiefs, a 5-1 squad led by Patrick Mahomes. Granted, both teams lost in Week 6. The Bengals once again couldn't handle the Pittsburgh Steelers, coughing up a touchdown with only seconds remaining. Though Dalton is playing some of the best ball of his career, the defense has all three starting cornerbacks dealing with injuries and lost at least one starting linebacker against the Steelers. Kansas City's loss the same week wasn't as bad considering it was against New England in 43-40 fashion. Mahomes still threw for four touchdowns and two interceptions, moving him to 18 and four on the year, respectively. Perhaps the most underrated difference for K.C. this year is its QB's ability to fire the ball away quickly and make the job easier on his guys up front: That's bad news for a hobbled Bengals defense with a strength being in its ability to rush the passer. NFL fans are simply getting this one at a bad time. The Bengals are limping to one of the NFL's best home-field advantages after another battle with the Steelers and don't have the personnel to slow Mahomes enough to the point of pulling off an upset. Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bengals 23 Odds via OddsShark.<doc-sep>Joe Sargent/Getty Week 7 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo. We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modelling system used by Nate Silver’s data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood that a team will win – which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines. Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 71.1% of the games over the last three weeks and 66.2% overall. Elo has also nailed 71.1% over the last three weeks and is not far behind overall at 61.0%. Both models went 11-4 in Week 6. Here are the picks for Week 7, with each model’s per cent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning. “Thursday Night Football” Ralph Freso/Getty Images Denver Broncos (-1) at Arizona Cardinals –CARDINALS (Elo 61%), BRONCOS(Cortana 61%) Sunday morning game in London Julio Aguilar/Getty Images Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) –CHARGERS (Elo 62%, Cortana 61%) Sunday afternoon games — early window Sam Greenwood/Getty Images New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears – PATRIOTS (Elo 60%, Cortana 63%) (Elo 60%, Cortana 63%) Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) – BILLS (Elo 52%), COLTS (Cortana 57%) (Elo 52%), (Cortana 57%) Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (-3) – DOLPHINS (Elo 56%), LIONS Cortana 55%) (Elo 56%), Cortana 55%) Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at New York Jets – VIKINGS (Elo 56%, Cortana 53%) (Elo 56%, Cortana 53%) Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) – EAGLES (Elo 69%, Cortana 67%) (Elo 69%, Cortana 67%) Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) – BUCS (Elo 77%, Cortana 67%) (Elo 77%, Cortana 67%) Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) –JAGS (Elo 72%, Cortana 61%) Sunday afternoon games — late window Al Bello/Getty New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) – RAVENS (Elo 57%, Cortana 60%) (Elo 57%, Cortana 60%) Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers – RAMS (Elo 71%, Cortana 74%) (Elo 71%, Cortana 74%) Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5) –REDSKINS (Elo 53%, Cortana 53%) “Sunday Night Football” Adam Glanzman/Getty Images Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) –CHIEFS (Elo 76%, Cortana 63%) “Monday Night Football” New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) –FALCONS (Elo 80%, Cortana 69%) Now check out this week’s power rankings. Rob Carr/Getty Images Business Insider Emails & Alerts Site highlights each day to your inbox. Email Address Join Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.<doc-sep>Well, last week wasn't horrible: Two wins and one loss. I suppose we can live with that. I am a fool for falling into that Ravens/Titans trap. Should've stuck with two games. Anyway, we are now 7-5-1 on the season. And it's time to get on a roll. Saints (+2.5) at Ravens I am certifiable for picking another game involving the Ravens. Seriously. But maybe if I stick with it my luck will turn. Saints coming off a bye, rested, against the league's best defense thus far. In this high-scoring era give me the points and the offense. Baltimore played three straight on the road and a bunch of vital AFC games and I expect this defense to get a very different test than anything it's seen thus far. You can't blitz Drew Brees and get set away with it, and he will find the right matchups in coverage to carry the day. So which teams should you back in Week 7 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons. Patriots (-3) at Bears What happened to the Bears' defense last week? And now Khalil Mack and others are beat up? Pats will play ball control with Sony Michel to set up play-action chunk plays. Bill Belichick, even short on talent on D, can handle Mitchell Trubisky. Pats are on one of those tears where they soar to the top seed in the AFC. Ride the wave with them. Sorry to interrupt your reading, but just a quick PSA here. We have a pretty amazing daily NFL podcast you may not be aware of. It's hosted by Will Brinson and it's all the things you're looking for: news, fantasy, picks, really, just football stuff for football people. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Giants (+5.5) at Falcons I have a hard time seeing the Falcons being a touchdown better than most teams right now. Even the sad-sack Giants. If Eli can't find Odell Beckham against this faux defense -- Falcons can't rush the passer or cover much -- and Barkley can't control the clock, then bench the QB at halftime. Anytime ownership scapegoats OBJ it tends to bring out the best in him, as do the bright lights of primetime. Give me the points.<doc-sep>
It's Week 7 of the NFL and we're almost at the halfway point of the season. There are a lot of teams that we've got pegged as to whether or not they are good, but many others fluctuate wildly between competent and not. These lines will start to get tighter and tighter out of Vegas so we'll see if we can continue to pick out a few winners for you. Record: 19-10-2 (53-32-3 last year) Note: All times are ET and all games are on Sunday, Oct. 21. Here are this week's best NFL picks against the spread: Tennessee Titans (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2), 9:30 a.m. (London) The London game has seen several unders in its past including the one last week where Seattle beat Oakland 27-3. Last year four of the losing teams in the overseas games scored fewer than 10 points. The Titans' offense has struggled terribly as of late without a solid run game and a terrible offensive line. The good thing is that the defense has been good. I think they can match up alright with the Chargers' offense. I also think Los Angeles can get quite a few sacks and will harass Marcus Mariota into some struggles of his own. Tennessee has gone under in four of its five games against conference opponents. The Chargers have gone under in 15 of their last 28 conference contests. I think this one is an under as well. SELECTION: Under 45.5 Houston Texans (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3), 1 p.m. Jacksonville was undressed by the Cowboys last week and have now lost two straight and three of the last four. The defense has given up 70 points the last two weeks at Kansas City while the offense has pitifully scored just 21. Blake Bortles has had some issues while the run game has struggled without Leonard Fournette. This team has not played well this season outside of a couple of early games. Houston has won three straight since opening up the year with three losses. Deshaun Watson has played well for the most part outside of last week's head-scratching performance. The defense is playing a lot better as of late and this team will be looking for revenge after two beatdowns at the hands of the Jags last year. Jacksonville has covered just seven of its last 18 games at home. Some will point to Houston's performance last week as a worry for this week, but I also think the Texans had half of their mind on this one. Give me the live road dog in this one. SELECTION: Texans +5.5 Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2), 4:25 p.m. Last week we had the Cowboys and they came through with flying colors. They were able to run it well enough that Dak Prescott could use the play-action game. This doesn't mean that all of a sudden Dallas is fixed and that the anemic offense is going to work. I'm actually more scared of the Cowboys' defense then their O and they may get Sean Lee back on Sunday. The Redskins are coming off a 23-17 win against Carolina in which Adrian Peterson ran hard and the defense made the stops when it needed to. Injuries are still a concern with this team, but AP ran hard with a separated shoulder. I still think Washington's offense could be so much better if Alex Smith gets on the same page with his receivers. Dallas swept the Skins last year in two easy victories. This is a feel play for me as I think the Redskins can slow down Ezekiel Elliott and can get just enough points on a Dallas team that is 0-3 on the road. SELECTION: Redskins -1.5 Los Angeles Rams (6-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5), 4:25 p.m. Upon first glance, this seems to be an easy win for the road team, which has put up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. The 49ers have lost four straight and are starting C.J. Beathard under center. If you look closer though, there are some scenarios that say the home team is a live dog. This is the Rams' third straight road game after two really close wins over Seattle and Denver. They have a stretch of games coming up against Green Bay and New Orleans which are bigger tests in the scope of the NFC landscape.