The Oct. 2 disappearance of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi at his country’s consulate in Istanbul has put a spotlight on the deteriorating relations between Turkey and the Persian Gulf kingdom. Articles based on anonymous accounts from Turkish officials report that Turkey has video and audio proof that Saudi Arabian agents detained, murdered and dismembered Khashoggi, a sharp critic of his government who lived in Washington, D.C. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the stakes even further when he said that a search of the Saudi consulate showed evidence of toxic materials that were painted over. The affair is just the latest to drive a wedge between the two key Middle Eastern powers – countries that have in the past shared close ties to each other and to the United States. How did their friendship turn frosty? I’ve been studying and writing about the region for decades. And like with many other relationships in the Middle East, it’s complicated – and that’s why the current crisis could lead to a surprising twist. Early days Although diplomatic relations between the Republic of Turkey and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were established in 1932, neither country showed much interest in the other until the late 1960s. Turkey’s secular ruling elite was more keen to have strategic and economic ties with the West than to the Arab world. Turkey joined the NATO alliance in 1951 – two years after its formation – and maintained good relations with Israel from the start, much to the disappointment of Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. This began to change in the ‘60s and '70s when Turkey made two moves that led to stronger relations with Saudi Arabia and resulted in increased trade. In 1969, it joined the nascent Organization of Islamic States, based in Saudi Arabia and intended to be a “collective voice of the Muslim world.” And in 1975, Turkey initiated diplomatic relations with the Palestine Liberation Organization, which sought to end the occupation of Palestinian territories in Israel. Relations continued to improve in the 1980s but deteriorated in the '90s when the kingdom took Syria’s side in several disputes with neighbor Turkey. These ups and downs in Saudi-Turkish relations were partly a result of Turkey’s political instability, including several military coups in the '80s and '90s. Relations tended to improve when Islamist or civilian parties – which felt close cultural and religious links with Turkey’s Muslim neighbors – were in power but worsened after the military deposed them. Warmer ties Relations between the two countries found a firmer footing after the Justice and Development Party – commonly known as the AKP – gained power in Turkey in 2002 and continued to improve throughout the decade. In contrast to the secular governments that had ruled Turkey since 1923, the AKP and its leader Erdogan put a high priority on building stronger relationships with its Arab and Muslim neighbors. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the resulting change in the balance of power in the region brought Turkey and Saudi Arabia even closer together. Both were concerned about Iraq falling into the hands of their common rival, Iran, whose military and political influence increased as a result of the invasion. They also wanted to contain Iran’s influence in Syria and Lebanon. As a result of these closer ties, in August 2006 the late King Abdullah became the first Saudi leader to visit Turkey since 1966 and made another trip the following year. In return, then-Prime Minister Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia four times from 2009 to 2011. The high-level diplomatic contacts fostered growing business and investment. Turkish exports of textiles, metals and other products to Saudi Arabia soared from US$397 million in 2000 to $3.6 billion in 2012. And Saudi businessmen who felt unwelcome in the U.S. and Europe after 9/11 saw Turkey as an attractive destination. A springtime chill in the air Relations took a sharp turn in the 2011, starting with the Arab spring uprisings that led to the overthrow of governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. As an advocate of political Islam, Erdogan welcomed the revolutions and the new governments they yielded. The Saudi government, on the other hand, saw the revolts as destabilizing. This disagreement came to a peak when Mohammad Morsi, who was closely affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, won that Egypt’s first post-Hosni Mubarak election in 2012. Erdogan supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power, which was opposed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States like the United Arab Emirates. These countries had a long history of hostility towards Muslim Brotherhood activities throughout the Arab world and were concerned that these victories would energize the movement in their own countries. The rift between Turkey and Saudi Arabia intensified after a military coup ousted Morsi in 2013. Erdogan strongly condemned it and gave the Muslim Brotherhood refuge in Turkey, while Saudi Arabia offered billions in financial aid to cement Egypt’s new military rulers. Relations took another hit in 2014 when Saudi Arabia actively undermined Turkey’s bid to become a nonpermanent member of the United Nations’ Security Council. More recently, Saudi Arabia and Turkey found themselves on opposite sides over the Qatar crisis in June 2017. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt severed all ties with Qatar – and tried to enforce an economic blockade – over the latter’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups. They were also upset with Qatar’s refusal to terminate its ties with Iran. Turkey reacted by expanding its engagement with Qatar, offering economic aid and sending more troops to its small military base in that country. Indeed, Turkish food shipments to Qatar played a crucial role in its ability to withstand the blockade. Interpreting Turkey’s response to Khashoggi So what does this all mean for the current crisis? Western media have mostly portrayed Turkey’s handling of the latest incident involving Khashoggi’s disappearance as an indication of deteriorating Saudi-Turkey relations. That might not, however, be the case. The Turkish government is trying to balance multiple conflicting goals in the way it handles this crisis. On the one hand, it is trying to show a full commitment to discovering what happened and has put enormous pressure on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by leaking details of his government’s involvement. But I believe it is also mindful of preventing a further escalation of tensions with Saudi Arabia, which remains a major investor in Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey is struggling with a severe financial and external debt crisis at the moment and is desperately trying to attract foreign capital. A withdrawal of Saudi investment or tourists could worsen the crisis. Erdogan’s initial hesitation in pointing the finger – leaving it to “anonymous officials” – and his call for a joint investigation gave Saudi leadership time to come up with a response strategy, which appears to be blaming “rogue killers.” In this he seems to share President Donald Trump’s interest in giving Saudi Arabia a face-saving way out of the crisis. The U.S. and the Trump administration also have a lot on the line in their relationship with the Saudi government. Interestingly, one result of this ordeal, which has plunged Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the West into chaos, may be more cooperation and better ties between the U.S. and Turkey, which now have a great deal of leverage over the kingdom.<doc-sep>The disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi who vanished two weeks ago on the same day he visited the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, sent ripples across the world, with several world powers taking a keen interest in this case. Now, one analyst explains how this incident may affect global politics and world economy. Commenting on the decision made by Saudi Arabia and Turkey to create a joint committee in order to investigate the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Alessandro Bruno, Senior Analyst and Political Writer at Lombardi Letter, told Sputnik that there may be several reasons which led the two countries down this path. First, he explained, "Turkey is a close US strategic ally, which has strayed closer to Russia in the past few years because of the Syrian war." Now, Bruno speculates, Turkey may regard the current situation as "an opportunity to become useful to Washington again" by helping Saudi Arabia resolve the Khashoggi case. Also, Erdogan may be expecting to receive certain favors in exchange for his assistance, such as "very low coast loans or grants to help it deal with its current financial crisis and renewed privileged relations with Washington." The US Angle Gauging the US reaction to the Khashoggi case, Bruno noted that while Trump did threaten to impose sanctions against Saudi Arabia if Riyadh’s involvement in the journalist’s disappearance was to be confirmed, the US president would rather refrain from such moves before the November midterm elections due to the close ties between his administration and the Saudi royals. Then, Bruno pointed out, there is the matter of the oil prices. READ MORE: JP Morgan CEO Cancels Visit to Saudi Conference Amid Khashoggi Disappearance "Trump’s sole legitimacy with American voters is the economy. Higher oil prices, which the president of the White House has often mentioned as a problem, would clearly be an effect of a tense Riyadh-Washington relationship. The Saudis have already hinted the possibility of using oil as a weapon again sending it to $100 —$200. That would kill the US stock market, already under pressure from higher interest rates and it would kill Trump’s presidency," Bruno said. At the same time, he added, Trump will likely try to distance himself from this situation, at least "in the short term." Threat of Sanctions and Response According to Bruno, despite reports about Riyadh considering serious cuts in oil production if US approve its sanctions bill, the Saudis today "have less power to cause an oil crisis" (as compared to, for example, 1973) because "nobody wants oil to reach an excessively high price these days." "It would encourage alternative energy investors and technologies to accelerate development of alternatives – or go nuclear / natural gas. It would also be a gift to Texas and Dakota oil producers, which need high oil prices to justify the expensive extraction techniques to develop shale oil and other unorthodox deposits. In the short term, the Saudis could cause problems, but China and others would find a way to work with Tehran at that point," the analyst explained. Qatari Connection The analyst also remarked that he "would certainly include the Qatar-Saudi confrontation as one of the lenses through which to analyze the Khashoggi affair", in no small part due to the fact that Saudi Arabia allegedly "used Qatar to deflect attention" from this situation. "Daily newspapers in Riyadh have accused Al Jazeera of spreading false news about the episode. And more serious analysts in the Kingdom have even come up with an interesting and credible motive: Doha wants to create a wedge between Riyadh and Ankara. The focus of such a line of inquiry would then use Khashoggi’s Turkish fiancée as having played a key role," he remarked. READ MORE: Khashoggi’s Apple Unlikely to Have Recorded Evidence of His 'Death', Here's Why The Khashoggi Case Jamal Khashoggi, known for his criticism of Saudi Arabia's policies, vanished on October 2 after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to obtain a marriage document, as reported by Turkish media. The Saudi authorities said that the journalist left the consulate on the same day that he arrived. After Ankara claimed that Khashoggi could’ve been arrested or even killed while inside the diplomatic mission, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman replied that Turkish authorities could search the Consulate General building if necessary. The views and opinions expressed by the speaker do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik. The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.<doc-sep>Washington dispatched its top diplomat to the Turkish capital on Wednesday to confer with president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other high-rank officials amid a mounting crisis over the disappearance and presumed murder of a Washington Post journalist at the hands of alleged Saudi enforcers. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo swept in and out of Ankara just hours after leaving the Saudi capital, Riyadh, where he met with King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 33-year-old de facto ruler of the kingdom and the man suspected of ordering the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi. A photograph showed Mr Pompeo in a meeting with Mr Erdogan, foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, national intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, and presidential adviser Ibrahim Kalin in Ankara. Meanwhile, in Istanbul, Turkish investigators were for the first-time allowed to enter the residence of the Saudi consul general, one of the stops the alleged Saudi operations team made after leaving the consulate on the day of Mr Khashoggi's disappearance. Saudis had stonewalled for 15 days on granting Turks access to the site, finally giving in a day after Consul General Mohammed al-Otaiba flew back to Riyadh. Relations between Ankara and Washington have been frayed over a number of matters, including the imprisonment of US nationals and consular employees and stark differences over the conflict in Syria. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (3-L) during a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C) and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (3-R) in Ankara on Wednesday (EPA) The administration of President Donald Trump has appeared eager to sweep the Khashoggi matter under the rug and resume its robust partnership with the Saudi kingdom in confronting Iran, which the president’s conservative supporters consider the Middle East’s greatest threats. Mr Trump, echoing Crown Prince Mohammed’s talking points, insisted on Twitter that the Saudi royal “totally denied” knowing anything a disappearance that took place in his own country’s consulate at the hands of 15 Saudi nationals, some of them with confirmed ties to his own security apparatus. Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Show all 12 1 /12 Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul According to local media reports, Saudi consul Mohammad al-Otaibi left Turkey on 16 October. A Turkish prosecutor on 15 October has entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to investigate the disappearance of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, an inspection that was being carried out jointly with a Saudi team AFP/Getty Images Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Turkish forensic police officers work on the roof of the residence of the Saudi consul in Istanbul EPA Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Khashoggi went missing on 2 October when he entered the Saudi consulate to pick up paperwork AP Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul AFP/Getty Images Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Turkish police arrive to investigate the Saudi Arabian consulate general residence Getty Images Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Turkish forensic police search for evidence at the garden of the Saudi Arabia's Consul General Mohammad al-Otaibi AFP/Getty Images Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Turkish police search the rooftop of the Saudi Arabian consulate general residence Getty Images Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Turkish police arrive at the residence of the Saudi consul General Mohammed al-Otaibi to conduct a search AP Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul AP Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Turkish forensic police search for evidence at the garden of the Saudi Arabia's Consul General Mohammad al-Otaibi AFP/Getty Images Khashoggi disappearance: Forensic police investigate Saudi consul Getty Images Mr Cavusoglu told reporters the officials discussed Mr Khashoggi but also raised the issue of the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Syria, where Washington and Ankara have clashed over US support for militant Kurds linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK. Turkey demands the fighters leave a pocket of Syria called Manbij, east of the Euphrates River, and has repeatedly accused the US of dragging its feet on a deal to remove them. “We conveyed to the US the importance of applying the Manbij roadmap,” Mr Cavusoglu said, according to CNN Turk. “Although it was a brief meeting, it was useful and efficient.” A three-way partnership between Washington, Riyadh, and Ankara dates back to the 1950s, forged first in the confrontation against the Soviet Union and its proxies and later against Iran’s Islamist revolutionaries. But the ties have become strained with the rise of the Crown Prince, whose aggressive opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar clashes with the Turkish leadership, and whose proximity to the Trump administration creates what Turks consider imbalance in the region. Analysts speculate that backroom talks between the three countries are a possible attempt to reconfigure the relationship on Turkey’s terms. “Nobody can guess what kind of negotiations are going on between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States,” said Behlul Ozkan, an associate professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Marmara University. “No one’s going to destroy relations because of Khashoggi. What the Turks are trying to do is shape this relationship based on their own interests.” Mr Khashoggi, Saudi dissident journalist and US resident, vanished after entering his own nation’s consulate in Istanbul on 2 October. Public pressure to get to the bottom of the Khashoggi affair has mounted in both NATO countries. Trump administration allies, including Republican Party Senators Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio, have publicly called for a reconsideration of Saudi-US ties over the presumed murder of Mr Khashoggi. Nobody can guess what kind of negotiations are going on between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States Behlul Ozkan, associate professor of international relations at Marmara University German foreign minister Heiko Maas announced Wednesday he was delaying a trip to Riyadh to meet Saudi officials, while IMF chief Christine Lagarde said she would be a no-show at a Saudi economic summit next week dubbed “Davos in the Desert”. The Turkish media has been filled with grisly details of Mr Khashoggi’s death, much of it apparently leaked by security forces under the likely approval of Ankara. The daily Yeni Safak, close to the Erdogan government, published a report on Wednesday citing audio recordings taken inside the consulate that, the paper reported, strongly suggest Mr Khashoggi was tortured and murdered, in a gruesome scene with the presence of Saudi Consul General Mohammed al-Otaiba, who departed Istanbul for Riyadh on Tuesday. “Do this outside. You’re going to get me in trouble,” Mr Otaiba is reportedly heard saying to Mr Khashoggi’s allegedly assailants. ‘If you want to live, shut up!’” he was reportedly told. ✕ Donald Trump says Jamal Khashoggi could have been work of 'rogue killers' Security camera footage leaked to local and international media suggested that 15 Saudis, including a forensics physician, arrived on private jets in Istanbul hours before Mr Khashoggi was scheduled to arrive at the consulate, then sped away hours later, making a stop at the residence of the Saudi consul general before zipping back to the airport and out of the country.. The revelations have captivated the Turkish public and dominated headlines and broadcast news reports. “Saudis do not have the power or chance to cover up the murder they committed in front of the eyes of the world,” said a commentary in the pro-government newspaper Aksam on Wednesday. “Riyadh cannot absolve itself by blaming a few civil servants in the Khashoggi murder. Visuals and photos prove that a ‘death squad’ that arrived in Istanbul in two jets were Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s men.”<doc-sep>
The disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul is just the latest crisis to strain the complicated relations between the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Turkey since the Arab Spring in 2011. Saudis and other Gulf Arabs still flock to Istanbul and purchase property throughout Turkey, a country viewed as having one foot in Europe and another in the Mideast. The kingdom remains one of the top foreign investors in Turkey, providing crucial hard currency amid a crisis in the Turkish lira. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's support of Islamist groups conflicts with the stance of Gulf sheikhdoms that view groups like the Muslim Brotherhood as threats to their hereditary rule. >> Opinion: Turkey, jailer of journalists, now slams Saudi Arabia - for murdering a journalist Erdogan also maintains links to Iran, Saudi Arabia's Mideast arch-rival, and Qatar, a nation now boycotted by the kingdom and three other Arab nations over a political dispute. All this together requires Ankara to maintain a careful balancing act. "Turkey is at the center of an economic storm and has very few friends to turn to for help. Ankara-Washington relations are at an all-time low. Turkey-Russia relations are vulnerable and relations with Europeans are complicated," wrote Gonul Tol, the director of the Turkey program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. "To avoid further problems, Turkey has been trying hard not to further strain ties with Saudi Arabia," Tol said. 'Khashoggi disappears' The situation hasn't been helped by the October 2 disappearance of Khashoggi, a contributor to The Washington Post whose writing aimed to help the West interpret the opaque machinations of the Saudi royal court. Khashoggi wrote columns critical of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 33-year-old son of King Salman. He had lived in the United States for the last year in self-imposed exile. Turkish officials fear a Saudi team of 15 men killed and dismembered the writer at the consulate. They have yet to publish any evidence of him being slain, though surveillance footage around the consulate shows a convoy of vehicles with diplomatic license plates leaving the Saudi Consulate a little under two hours after Khashoggi's arrival. Reports in Turkish media and the Post suggest Turkish officials have both video and audio of the killing, something The Associated Press has been unable to confirm. Saudi Arabia meanwhile maintains that the allegations are "baseless," but has yet to offer any proof that Khashoggi ever left the consulate. 'Economic struggles' The crisis comes at a sensitive time for Erdogan. The Turkish lira has depreciated by close to 40 percent against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year. Inflation has spiked. Part of that rests on the massive loans taken out by the country during a construction boom under Erdogan, which helped fuel his popularity. President Donald Trump has contributed to the difficult economic situation in Turkey. Trump in August doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports and sanctioned two Turkish officials over the imprisonment of American evangelical pastor Andrew Brunson, who faced terrorism charges. Turkey responded by putting its own tariffs on U.S. imports and vowed to boycott American electronic goods. On Friday, a Turkish court freed Brunson after nearly two years in detention, allowing him to leave the country for America. That may help ease tensions between Turkey, a NATO ally since the Cold War, and the U.S. 'Roots in the Arab Spring' For Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the most recent problems take root in the 2011 Arab Spring popular uprisings that swept the region. After protesters in Egypt drove out autocratic President Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian voters elected Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, a conservative, pan-Arab Islamist group. Turkey supported Morsi, as did the tiny, energy-rich nation of Qatar on the Arabian Peninsula. The Egyptian military overthrew Morsi in 2013. The country's new leader, General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, declared the Brotherhood a terrorist group and conducted a campaign of mass arrests targeting its members. Saudi Arabia and its close ally, the United Arab Emirates, similarly declared the Brotherhood a terrorist group and arrested its members. Turkey, and its cosmopolitan city of Istanbul in particular, has since become a haven for Brotherhood members and others fleeing regional crackdown. That hasn't changed, even as Erdogan conducted his own crackdown on political opponents in the wake of an unsuccessful coup to topple him in 2016.