On Nov. 6, millions of Americans will head to the polls to vote in the midterm elections. Historically, midterm elections are viewed as a referendum on the President, with the party out of power almost always performing better than the party in power. Currently, Republicans control the Senate 51-49. In order to win control of the Senate, Democrats will need to finish with a net gain of at least two seats in the midterms. On the surface, it doesn’t seem very daunting of a task. However, the map is not in the Democrats’ favor. The Democrats must defend 25 seats while Republicans must defend only eight. North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp (D): 22.2% chance (+350 odds) 22.2% chance (+350 odds) Kevin Cramer (R): 83.3% chance (-500 odds) Arizona Martha McSally (R): 56.5% chance (-130 odds) 56.5% chance (-130 odds) Kyrsten Sinema (D): 50% chance (Even odds) California Dianne Feinstein (D): 92.3% chance (-1200 odds) 92.3% chance (-1200 odds) Field: 13.3% chance (+650 odds) Florida Bill Nelson (D): 53.5% chance (-115 odds) 53.5% chance (-115 odds) Rick Scott (R): 53.5% chance (-115 odds) Indiana Joe Donnelly (D): 57.4% chance (-135 odds) 57.4% chance (-135 odds) Mike Braun (R): 48.8% chance (+105 odds) Missouri Claire McCaskill (D): 42.6% chance (+135 odds) 42.6% chance (+135 odds) Josh Hawley (R): 62.3% chance (-165 odds) Montana Jon Tester (D): 75% chance (-300 odds) 75% chance (-300 odds) Matt Rosendale (R): 29.4% chance (+240 odds) Nevada Dean Heller (R): 47.6% chance (+110 odds) 47.6% chance (+110 odds) Jacky Rosen (D): 58.3% chance (-140 odds) New Jersey Bob Menendez (D): 83.3% chance (-500 odds) 83.3% chance (-500 odds) Bob Hugin (R): 22.2% chance (+350 odds) Tennessee Marsha Blackburn (R): 80% chance (-400 odds) 80% chance (-400 odds) Phil Bredesen (D): 25% chance (+300 odds) West Virginia Joe Manchin (D): 81.8% chance (-450 odds) 81.8% chance (-450 odds) Patrick Morrissey (R): 23.5% chance (+325 odds) Texas Ted Cruz (R): 75% chance (-300 odds) 75% chance (-300 odds) Beto O’Rourke (D): 29.4% chance (+240 odds) According to the betting markets, Republicans are expected to buck the historical trend and hold their majority in the Senate. Who will win Senate Control in 2018? Republicans: 84.8% chance (-560 odds) 84.8% chance (-560 odds) Democrats: 21.3% chance (+370 odds) 2018 US Senate Election Majority Outcome Republican Majority: 72.2% chance (-260 odds) 72.2% chance (-260 odds) Democratic Majority: 11.8% chance (+750 odds) 11.8% chance (+750 odds) No Majority: 26.3% chance (+280 odds) Two of the top political trading sites, PredictIt and Smarkets, are posting Republicans as massive favorites to retain the Senate. According to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, Democrats have only a 20% chance of winning the Senate. However, the House is a different story. The House and Senate continue to diverge in our forecast. Dems' win probability in the Senate is down to 20%, their lowest yet.https://t.co/EFMPjkkIqq But it's up to 78% in the House, which is improved by a few percentage points from recent days.https://t.co/nMWlUPlerX — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 10, 2018 To win the House, Democrats need to flip 25 Republican seats. Oddsmakers give the Democrats a great shot at pulling off the upset. Odds to win House Control 2018 Republicans: 39.2% chance (+155 odds) 39.2% chance (+155 odds) Democrats: 66.7% chance (-200 odds) 2018 US House of Representatives Election — Majority Outcome Democratic Majority: 66.7% chance (-200 odds) 66.7% chance (-200 odds) Republican Majority: 40% chance (+150 odds) PredictIt and Smarkets also expect Democrats to win the House.<doc-sep>Dissatisfaction with President Trump among Nevada voters has not had quite the ripple effect Democrats are hoping for in the state’s highly competitive Senate race, and turnout among Hispanics for that contest in November remains a key question for the party, according to results in a New York Times/Siena College poll this week. Roughly as many Nevadans approve of Mr. Trump’s job performance as disapprove, and they are also about evenly split on the Senate candidates. In the phone survey of more than 640 registered Nevada voters, which had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points, Senator Dean Heller held a slight edge over his Democratic challenger, Representative Jacky Rosen. Mr. Heller is considered the Republicans’ most endangered incumbent, in a year when his party can only afford to lose one seat and still retain its control of the Senate.<doc-sep>With less than a month until the midterm elections, Republicans are going on the offensive in several Senate races as part of a reinvigorated effort not only to hold onto their slim majority in the upper chamber but potentially expand it. The GOP's chances of flipping key seats currently held by Democrats in Trump-won territory seem to be improving -- especially in North Dakota, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is slipping further behind GOP challenger Kevin Cramer. Meanwhile, Republicans are strengthening their position to hold seats that Democrats are fighting to flip. Analysts are warning that Democrats, who extensively focused in recent months on longshot bids to derail Republican candidates in reliably red states, may have neglected critical Midwest battleground states in a miscalculation reminiscent of the 2016 presidential election. Three pivotal Senate races have shifted in the GOP's favor in Fox News' latest Power Rankings, with Texas and North Dakota now considered likely Republican wins, and Tennessee changing from a toss-up to the lean-Republican column. In Texas, a new Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday shows Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke trailing incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by 9 points. "Senator Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose" his Senate seat, said Peter Brown, the poll's assistant director. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: PUMP UP THE VOLUME AS MIDTERMS APPROACH Those results mirror a Quinnipiac poll from several weeks ago, suggesting that O'Rourke's momentum has flatlined. O'Rourke's campaign took in more than $38 million last quarter -- setting a record for a Senate race that Democrats now fear they might still end up losing. "Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose." — Quinnipiac University poll director Peter Brown And in another high-profile race, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., has surged to a double-digit lead over challenger Phil Bredesen, according to an in-progress New York Times poll. A CBS News poll last week showed Blackburn leading Bredesen by 8 points. Bredesen last week secured the endorsement of music superstar Taylor Swift, who said Blackburn's voting records "appalls and terrifies" her. Bredesen broke with his fellow Democrats and voiced support for then-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh as a series of uncorroborated sexual misconduct allegations were leveled against him. Several campaign volunteers abandoned Bredesen after he announced his position on Kavanaugh, Politico reported Wednesday. “As a woman voter in Tennessee, I felt torpedoed by the statement,” one organizer in Memphis, Rhonda McDowell, told the outlet. Retiring Republican Sen. Bob Corker, who holds the seat Bredesen and Blackburn are seeking, last week told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., that Democrats' scorched-earth tactics on Kavanaugh had badly damaged Bredesen, who needs conservative support to prevail in Tennessee. Analysts say that Democrats' faltering bids to retake two seats in traditionally red states has parallels to the 2016 presidential race, when breathless news reports suggested Hillary Clinton had a chance at winning Texas. "Liberal activists and online media [are] touting Democratic chances and paying more attention to stretch cases like Texas and Tennessee, when the Democrats need to protect vulnerable incumbents in states like Missouri and Indiana," Michigan State University political science professor Matt Grossman told Fox News. GOP ENTHUSIASM SURGES AMID KAVANAUGH SLUGFEST, BOOSTING REPUBLICANS ACROSS THE BOARD "That reminded me of talks about possible Democratic wins in Arizona, Georiga, and Texas in 2016, when Clinton had to protect the Midwest states," he added. Missouri and Indiana indeed represent vulnerable seats that Republicans could swipe next month. Fox News ranks the Senate races in Indiana and Missouri as toss-ups, as incumbent Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill, respectively, try to fend off challengers in states President Trump won by double-digits in 2016. Both voted against Kavanaugh, which has become a central issue in both contests. The Kavanaugh effect appears to have had the biggest effect on another vulnerable incumbent Democrat, North Dakota's Heitkamp. She trails Republican challenger Cramer by 12 points. Last month, before Heitkamp voiced her reluctance to support Kavanaugh, he was up by only 4 points. HEITKAMP SLAMS HILLARY FOR 'RIDICULOUS' CLAIM THAT CIVILITY IS IMPOSSIBLE WITH GOP “That spectacle proved to be perhaps the greatest political gift I’ve been given in a very long time,” Cramer said. And a new poll in another red state, West Virginia, shows incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by just one point. But the poll, which was commissioned by national Republicans and the Morrisey campaign, is an outlier. Manchin's last-minute support for Kavanaugh, who is highly popular in West Virginia, has become a key issue in the campaign, with Morrisey calling Manchin's vote a "craven political calculation." Republicans are also working to flip Montana's seat, held by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, and Florida's, held by Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Speaking exclusively to Fox News Wednesday night, President Trump said Republican candidates are moving to take advantage of the encouraging numbers. "The most recent polling suggests it’s going to be a tale of two elections." — Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman “The fact is I think we are doing really well,” Trump said. “Many of the Senate races that we didn’t think we were going to be contesting, we are now leading. We have some great candidates. And, very importantly, we are finding the same thing now with the House.” Grossman, who also directs Michigan State's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, cited an additional challenge for moderate senators like Heitkamp and Manchin who often buck their party: Congressional races are increasingly becoming nationalized. He cited a variety of factors to explain that trend, including greater interest in national media sources, President Trump's larger-than-life profile, and more cohesive top-down party messaging. While indicators are strong for Republicans in the Senate, the map is also working in the GOP's favor. There are nine Senate seats currently held by Democrats in states that went for Trump in 2016 but just one Republican incumbent running in a state carried by Clinton. That state, Nevada, is home to a tight race that Fox News currently considers a toss-up, as incumbent Sen. Dean Heller faces off against Jacky Rosen.<doc-sep>The latest polling in the closely watched U.S. Senate contest between U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-El Paso, suggests the race is Cruz's to lose. A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday has O'Rourke at 9 points behind Cruz, 54 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters, right where the race stood in its Sept. 18 survey. Ongoing polling by the Upshot, The New York Times data journalism site, in partnership with Siena College, also put Cruz ahead by 9 points as of Thursday — with 52 percent to O'Rourke's 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. Only three weeks ago, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated the Texas race a "toss-up." But, with a single exception, polls have shown Cruz with the edge. With less than a month until Election Day, the new results indicate the race might be jelling, with an outcome approximating Donald Trump's 9-point victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. "The election is far from over, but Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll. "That is even more unlikely since 97 percent of Cruz voters say they are sure they won't change their minds." O'Rourke's hopes, and his strategy, depend on growing the electorate in unexpected ways with a surge of Democratic turnout that is not matched by a commensurate surge by Republican voters. Otherwise, O'Rourke is faced with the daunting challenge of defeating Cruz with a likely electorate in which a slim majority of voters approve of Donald Trump's presidency. Slightly more than half of Texans approve of Trump's performance, with 46 percent disapproving, according to Quinnipiac. The Upshot survey found that 53 percent of Texas voters want Republicans to maintain control of the Senate, a likely outcome, but one that might be jeopardized by an O'Rourke victory. Gubernatorial race Cruz and O'Rourke will be sharing a ballot in which, both polls indicate, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is leading former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, his Democratic rival — by 20 points in the Quinnipiac poll — 58 percent to 38 percent — and, by 23 points — 58 percent to 35 percent — in the Upshot survey. Four years ago, Abbott defeated Democrat Wendy Davis by 20 points. Abbott holds a nearly 50-point lead among white voters, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Valdez leads by more than 60 points among black voters. But, Valdez holds just a 4-point lead among Hispanic voters. O'Rourke is winning African-American voters by a ratio of 84 to 10 percent, and Hispanic voters by 61 to 37 percent. Cruz's breathing room overall might be a function of his success in tarnishing O'Rourke's image since the summer by attacking the Democrat as out of step with conservative Texas values. The shorthand coverage of the race has been that O'Rourke is enormously likable and Cruz is famously not. But, seen through the state's partisan prism, Cruz is better liked than O'Rourke. The Quinnipiac poll found that 52 percent of likely voters viewed Cruz favorably and 44 percent unfavorably, while 45 percent viewed O'Rourke favorably and 47 percent unfavorably. The Upshot poll found much the same. "O'Rourke may be attracting massive crowds, but Cruz has a better favorability rating," Brown said. Men prefer Cruz Men, and especially white men, seem particularly resistant to O'Rourke's appeal. "I think the most important number in the new poll is that Cruz is up 25 points among men," Brown said of Cruz's 62 percent to O'Rourke's 37 percent among men, compared with O'Rourke's 52 percent to Cruz's 46 percent among women. Brown said it is very difficult to win an election when you are that far behind with a demographic group that represents nearly half the electorate. Among white voters, Cruz is leading with 69 percent to O'Rourke's 30 percent among white voters, and 77 percent to O'Rourke 23 percent among white males. Among whites with a college degree, Cruz leads with 60 percent to O'Rourke's 40 percent and with 80 percent to O'Rourke's 19 percent among whites without a college degree. Ultimately, the decisive factor is who turns out to vote, and the difference in poll results often reflects different estimates of who is likely to vote. Most polling outfits don't disclose their turnout models, but the Upshot offers how the outcome would be under different scenarios. If the electorate reflects the "type of people who turned out in 2014," 4.4 million people would vote and Cruz would win by 16 points. If every active registered voter showed up, 13.2 million people would vote and Cruz would win by 4 points. And if those whose voting history indicates they will vote do so, 6.3 million people would vote and Cruz would win by 9 points. The Upshot survey, which is ongoing, had 778 respondents as of Thursday with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac poll, conducted Oct. 3-9, surveyed 730 likely Texas voters with a 4.4-point margin of error.<doc-sep>
The 2018 midterms are quickly approaching and candidates are jostling in the final weeks to come out on top. The latest polling on Wednesday showed things would likely be close as Democrats and Republicans battle for control in Congress. Here's a quick breakdown of recent polling in races in states that could prove important come Election Day in November: Where is it close? As of Wednesday, the latest map from RealClearPolitics had 32 toss-up races in the House. They were: CA10, CA25, CA39 CA45, CA48, FL26, IA3, IL6, IL12, KS2, KS3, KY6, ME2, MI8, MN1, MN8, NC9, NJ3, NJ7, NJ11, NM2, NY19, NY22, PA1, PA7, TX7, TX32, UT4, VA5, VA7, WA5, WA8 In the Senate, the toss-ups were, according to Real Clear Politics: AZ: Open (R), FL: Nelson (D), IN: Donnelly (D), MO: McCaskill (D), MT: Tester (D), NV: Heller (R), TN: Open (R). Latest polls Generic ballot A new Morning Consult/Politico survey found that Democrats earned 48 percent of voters in a generic ballot while a GOP candidate earned just 38 percent. That was the largest such gap since Morning Consult/Politico began polling it last year. Missouri A survey Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics found that Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill was effectively in a dead heat with her Republican challenger, Attorney General Josh Hawley. She earned 44 percent support in the poll while Hawley had garnered 45 percent. Reuters noted that while some observers had noticed a bump for Republicans after the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, McCaskill voting against him did not seem to sway many folks in Missouri. Texas In a highly watched race, Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz appeared to have a lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke. Emerson College found this week that Cruz was up 5 percentage points, 47 percent to 42 percent. Florida A high-profile Senate showdown between Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Governor Rick Scott is a close one. That Real Clear Politics average has Nelson up 2.4 percentage points. Illinois A House race between incumbent Republican Randy Hultgren and Democratic challenger Lauren Underwood is close, a poll from the New York Times/Siena found on Tuesday. I showed Hultgren had a 4 percentage point edge. Nevada Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller appears to be in a tight race with Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen. An NBC News/Marist poll on Tuesday found Heller garnered 46 percent of likely voters, while Rosen was at 44 percent. New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill had a relatively narrow lead over Republican Jay Webber in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, a Monmouth University poll found on Tuesday. It had Sherrill at 48 percent and Webber at 44 percent. North Carolina A survey from Republican-leaning Civitas Institute showed that North Carolina's typically conservative 9th District had a close race. Democratic candidate Dan McCready garnered 45 percent support in the poll, while Republican Mark Harris came in at 41 percent.