Voters across the country will pick the candidates for some of November’s most contested House, Senate, and governor’s races in Tuesday’s primary elections in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Vermont. Wisconsin Democrats will select the nominee they hope can finally take down Republican Gov. Scott Walker, as they get their fourth shot in 10 years to unseat him. Minnesota has a wide-open governor’s race and some House districts that both Democrats and Republicans think they could win from the other party in the 2018 midterm elections. In deep-blue Connecticut, Republicans still might have a chance to win the governor’s mansion with a deeply unpopular outgoing Democratic governor. The Democrats hope they could turn the tables in Vermont, though Republican Gov. Phil Scott has enjoyed a healthy level of popularity over his first term. Polls start to close at 7 pm ET. Vox will have live results for all the big races, powered by Decision Desk. Wisconsin governor: Democrats have another shot at Scott Walker Gov. Scott Walker is up for reelection again, and Democrats are hoping 2018 is the year they can finally kick him out of the governor’s mansion. More than eight Democrats have filed to run in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary. Tony Evers, the state’s public education chief, is in the lead, but polling has been scarce, and several other candidates have pulled in notable endorsements and fundraising. Mahlon Mitchell, the president of the Professional Fire Fighters Association, has the support of California Sen. Kamala Harris, and Kelda Helen Roys, a former state Assembly member, has the backing of New York’s Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (and Wisconsin’s most famed indie band, Bon Iver). State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (who has run in a Democratic gubernatorial primary before) and political activist Mike McCabe have also gotten progressive support. Walker will be a formidable challenge, having won three elections in eight years in Wisconsin. But his failed 2016 presidential campaign tanked his popularity in the state, something he has been campaigning hard to fix. Polls show him in a tighter race this year with his Democratic challengers than in any of his past races. Wisconsin Senate: a bitter Republican primary to oust a red-state Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin is up for her first reelection, and Republicans are gunning for her seat. But a bitter Republican primary risks leaving the party bruised for the general election. The race is between state Sen. Leah Vukmir and former veteran/ex-Democrat Kevin Nicholson. The Republicans have pushed each other to the right and embraced President Trump. Nicholson’s history as a Democrat and Vukmir’s initial resistance to embrace Trump in 2016 have been used against them. Baldwin was supposed to be vulnerable, as a relatively low-profile Democrat in a state that voted for Trump. But early polling has shown her ahead of both Vukmir and Nicholson by 10 points or more — and it doesn’t help that Republicans have spent months beating up on their own. Wisconsin’s First Congressional District: Democrats really want to take Paul Ryan’s seat Randy “Ironstache” Bryce has been declared the winner of the Wisconsin First Democratic primary. Paul Ryan is retiring, and Democrats think they can flip his congressional district blue. Two candidates — Randy Bryce, a populist ironworker and union organizer who goes by the nickname “Ironstache”; and Cathy Myers, a school board member and teacher — are in a bitter battle for the chance to win Ryan’s seat in Congress. Bryce gained a national platform after releasing a viral campaign ad in the summer of 2017, raking in donations and winning some high-profile endorsements, like that of Sen. Bernie Sanders. But he’s had media flubs and faced questions over past arrests for marijuana use and a DUI, and his past failures to pay child support. Myers, who has won elected office in the area, has been actively attacking Bryce’s character and his lack of policy chops. It’s made for an ugly race — and one that could damage both candidates for the general. The Republican primary looks much more straightforward. Bryan Steil, a well-known local business executive with Ryan’s endorsement, is the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Also on the ballot: Self-described “pro-White Christian American candidate” and alt-right troll Paul Nehlen; Nick Polce, an Army Green Beret and first-time candidate; Jeremy Ryan, a pro-marijuana candidate whose campaign website features him taking bong rips; and Kevin Steen, a Christian business leader who has been endorsed by Pro-Life Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s Seventh Congressional District: an opening for Democrats in the north Covering much of northern Wisconsin, this is the half-rural, half-urban kind of district Democrats are eying across the country in 2018. Health care is playing a major role in this race, after incumbent Republican Rep. Sean Duffy voted for the GOP’s deeply unpopular Obamacare repeal bill last year. Two Democrats — Margaret Engebretson, an attorney, veteran, and former railroad union worker; and Brian Ewert, a doctor at the Marshfield Clinic — are hoping they can unseat him. Minnesota governor: Democrat Mark Dayton is retiring, leaving an open seat Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton is retiring, and there’s a sizable field of candidates lining up to replace him. On the Democratic side, there’s a competitive three-way race between US Rep. Tim Walz, state Rep. Erin Murphy, and state Attorney General Lori Swanson. Walz and Swanson look like the frontrunners in this race: A July NBC News/Marist poll found 28 percent of Minnesota primary voters favored Swanson, 24 percent supported Walz, and 11 percent backed Murphy, a progressive candidate running on Medicare-for-all. Walz represents a more conservative part of the state in Congress, and is being forced to reckon with his past stance on guns — one that had earned him an A rating from the National Rifle Association. Swanson is also facing allegations that she had staff in the attorney general’s office do political work for her. On the Republican side, the race is on between former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former state Rep. Jeff Johnson, who ran for governor unsuccessfully in 2014. On the Republican side, Pawlenty has more name recognition and campaign cash than Johnson, reflected in his 19-point polling lead in the NBC News/Marist poll. But the former governor also has some vulnerabilities; notably, his establishment ties (he’s worked as a lobbyist after leaving the governor’s mansion in 2011) and his disavowal of President Trump, which could hurt him with Trump voters in the state. As for the general election — the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up, but the NBC poll found Pawlenty trailing all three Democratic contenders. Minnesota Senate: new Sen. Tina Smith vies for first reelection Sen. Tina Smith, Minnesota’s the former lieutenant governor whom Dayton appointed to Senate in wake of Al Franken’s resignation after accusations of sexual misconduct, is running again. She’s got some primary competition from former Bush administration official Richard Painter. Two Republicans are vying for the spot to challenge Smith: State Sen. Karin Housley faces dental technician and first-time candidate Bob Anderson. The polling so far looks good for Smith and Housley. As for the general election, this race looks to be pretty comfortably Democratic. Cook rates it Likely Democratic. Smith has kept her head down and voted with the Democratic caucus as a freshman senator, and she was already popular in the state before being appointed. Smith has a 9-point lead in a hypothetical matchup with Housley, according to the latest polling average from RealClearPolitics. Minnesota attorney general: Keith Ellison allegations hang over primary Keith Ellison has been declared the winner of the Minnesota Attorney General Democratic primary. There’s a crowded five-person race for attorney general on the Democratic side. The attorney general race is usually pretty sleepy, but this one has been shaken up by allegations that Democratic candidate and US Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) abused his ex-girlfriend. On the Republican side, former state Rep. Doug Wardlow and former state Sen. Robert Lessard are running. There aren’t many available polls for this race, but the state has only elected a single Republican attorney general since 1955 ... so it seems safe to say the eventual Democratic candidate is favored to win. The big question mark in this race is Ellison, the first Muslim elected to Congress and a progressive firebrand. He’s is easily the most recognizable name in the pack of Democrats, but he could be in trouble in light of new abuse allegations. This weekend, the son of Ellison’s ex-girlfriend wrote a lengthy Facebook post alleging that Ellison had been abusive to the woman. The claims have not been independently verified, and Ellison has denied mistreating her. Minnesota’s First Congressional District: an open seat Democrats must defend Iraq War veteran and Obama administration official Dan Feehan is running to replace Tim Walz, who is running for governor. He has widespread support from the state and national party. But the main primary competition tonight is between two Republicans: former US Treasury Department official Jim Hagedorn and state Sen. Carla Nelson. The First District is a fairly conservative region of the state that Walz has been able to get reelected in partially because of his moderate stances. Now that he’s departing, it’s not a given that Democrats can replicate his success. Feehan has the imprimatur of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He’s running as moderate — in favor of protecting the Affordable Care Act, the state’s farmers, and the military. Hagedorn and Nelson are both running on conservative platforms and embracing Donald Trump. Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District: a Muslim woman could replace Ellison Ilhan Omar has been declared the winner of the Minnesota First Democratic primary election. In the race to replace Ellison in this safely Democratic seat, Ilhan Omar sticks out: She could be one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress. Minnesota’s Seventh Congressional District: Republicans aim to take down a longtime Democratic representative Longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson (in office since 1991) is again facing a challenge from Republicans. Two are vying to compete against him in November: Air Force veteran David Hughes versus National Guard veteran and business leader Matt Prosch. This district is a strange amalgamation: rated R+12 and yet still in Cook’s Likely Democratic category. That’s because Peterson has been in the House for a really, really long time. He was first elected in 1990 and is the longest-serving House member in the Minnesota delegation. Peterson has a record to reflect that; he’s a friend to farmers in a rural district dominated by agriculture and tends to vote more conservative. Hughes already ran against Peterson in 2016 and lost by 5 points. Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District: Democrats hope to hold on to Rick Nolan’s seat Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan is vacating his seat to run for lieutenant governor, opening up a large field of candidates for this open seat. Five Democrats are competing to win the primary on Tuesday: North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy, state Rep. Jason Metsa, former state Rep. Joe Radinovich, former TV news anchor Michelle Lee, and progressive activist Soren Sorensen. On the GOP sides, St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber and Duluth school board member Harry Welty are facing off. The Eighth Congressional District leans conservative. Now that Nolan is leaving, Republicans see a prime opportunity to win back control of a district Cook rates R+4. There’s a large field of Democrats running to be the nominee, and there isn’t a clear frontrunner so far. The state party hasn’t yet endorsed a candidate, although Metsa is leading the race in campaign cash. Stauber, the GOP frontrunner and a well-known local politician, has out-fundraised all the Democrats so far. Connecticut governor: an open seat could flip from blue to red Current Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy has opted not to pursue reelection, prompting a large pool of Republicans and Democrats to jump into the race. His dismal approval ratings as the state grapples with a sputtering economy aren’t expected to help any potential Democratic successors. Two business leaders — Bob Stefanowski and David Stemerman — established early leads on the Republican side, but the field has become more level in recent months. A July poll gave Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, who also secured the Republican state party endorsement, the edge.<doc-sep>In a boost for Democrats ahead of the midterms, two swing states have seen extraordinary voter turnout in the party’s primary elections. Minnesota and Wisconsin saw dramatic increases in participation as both Democrat and Republican voters picked their candidates for Congress, the senate and governor. Democrats are hoping to replicate successes seen around the nation over the past 18 months in local and state special elections, where high levels of enthusiasm have propelled them to victories in a number of races, including deep red Alabama’s senate seat. In Minnesota, total primary turnout at more than 875,000 surpassed a 20-year high, with Democrat votes outnumbering Republican ballots by more than 250,000, according to unofficial state figures. Wisconsin saw a similarly high level of voter turnout at around 950,000 ballots cast – numbers not seen since 2002 - with Democrats again outvoting Republicans by more than 80,000. Turnout was strong in Democratic strongholds such as Madison, the state capital, and the largest city, Milwaukee, but also in Republican suburbs around Milwaukee. ✕ Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen: Every US state must prepare for Russian election interference in midterms “If the election were held today, it’s highly unlikely that Trump would carry Wisconsin again,” said Charlie Sykes, a conservative commentator and longtime Trump critic. Donald Trump became the first Republican to win Wisconsin in 32 years when he edged out Hillary Clinton there in 2016. The US president has claimed the midterm elections could see a “red wave”, with Republicans sweeping to victories across the country and strengthening the party’s hold on both the house and senate. Did someone give Minnesota Republicans the wrong primary date, because Dem turnout is better than two-to-one Jim Kessler, coBlock quote caption Democrats hope they can seize enough seats in Congress to take control of both the house and senate, and so deprive Mr Trump of the ability to push through much of his far-right agenda. And similar disparities in voting between the two parties in November's midterms would indeed prove disastrous for Mr Trump and the Republican Party. Jim Kessler, co-founder of centre-left think tank Third Way, said Minnesota turnout was a “bad sign” for Republicans going into the midterms. “Did someone give Minnesota Republicans the wrong primary date, because Dem turnout is better than two-to-one,” he added. The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Show all 14 1 /14 The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Time for a break-up? Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Sometimes simplicity works best. The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests There’s no place for Trump's other policies in our society. Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Many were quick to point out that in the UK, Trump means 'fart'. Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Some people were looking out for The Queen Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests There's a Mean Girl's quote for every occasion Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests There were a lot of hair references at the march toupée. Sorry, today. Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Frack off. The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Try and read this out without singing it... Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests A message all Brits will understand. Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Simple, and to the point Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests We don't entirely understand this one, but we do rather like it Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests The Inbetweeners sends a hilariously petulant message Harriet Hall The best anti-Trump placards from the London protests Never underestimate Cher Horowitz Harriet Hall Cliston Brown, a US political analyst, said primary turnout was “often telling” regarding turnout in general elections. “One of the little-noticed facts in 2016 was the Republican primary turnout vis-a-vis the Democratic turnout,” he wrote on Twitter. “This year the shoe is very clearly on the other foot.” However, David Canon, professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said not too much could be read into Tuesday’s turnout in Wisconsin, given several hot contests in the state. All 435 seats in the US house of representatives and one-third of the senate will be decided in this autumn's contests.<doc-sep>
With the 2018 Wisconsin Senate election slipping away, Republicans could be losing what they once hoped was a prime opportunity to win a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2016. A vicious GOP primary, pitting a former Democrat running as an outsider against the conservative state establishment, isn’t improving their odds of beating Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in her first reelection campaign. Voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to determine who her opponent will be. The latest polling has shown the race between Kevin Nicholson, the ex-Democrat, and Leah Vukmir, a state senator, to be very close: Results range from Nicholson +10 to Vukmir +2. They’ve been climbing over each other to swing to the right and to embrace Trump, a questionable general election strategy in a state where the president is deeply unpopular. But regardless of Tuesday’s outcome, Baldwin seems to be in an increasingly solid position to win reelection for a seat that Democrats must hold if they are to having any chance of winning the Senate back from Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. Surveys have consistently shown her leading both Nicholson and Vukmir by as much as 10 points or more. Election forecasters have moved the race into the Likely Democratic camp. If Republicans are to have any chance, they’ll have to rally around their candidate after the primary election and hope the national political environment improves. But the campaign between Nicholson and Vukmir, and Trump’s poor approval ratings, are roadblocks standing in their way. Kevin Nicholson vs. Leah Vukmir in the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary The Republican campaign has been defined by Nicholson’s history as a Democrat, Vukmir’s lackluster record as a legislator, and, of course, Donald Trump. Nicholson was a Democrat until the early 2000s — either 2000 or 2002, depending on which story you believe — and his parents actually gave the highest allowable donation to Baldwin in February, maxing campaign contributions to their son’s potential general election opponent. The candidate then accused his own parents of political intolerance, as the Washington Post reported, in a bizarre escalation of the family’s feud. Vukmir’s campaign, meanwhile, boasts that she is a “lifelong Republican.” But on the other side, outside conservative groups like Club for Growth have criticized Vukmir as a RINO (Republican in name only). The state senator, in the legislature since 2002, has the support of the state GOP and has allied herself with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Nicholson has used that to paint his opponent as a creature of the political establishment and an “insider” against his outsider. Nicholson has also attacked Vukmir for being insufficiently supportive of the president, even though her campaign spots name-check building Trump’s border wall and draining the Washington swamp. His campaign is running TV ads of Vukmir saying she wasn’t endorsing Donald Trump. As the folks at PolitiFact documented, she originally supported Walker and then Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) before coming around to Trump. Vukmir called the ads “desperate tactics” and said Nicholson was using “D.C. swamp campaign strategy plain and simple.” “This race has devolved into grotesque pandering of who’s the biggest Trump fan,” Scot Ross, who leads the progressive group One Wisconsin Now, told me. The other backdrop is a battle of the Republican billionaires. Illinois shipping magnate Richard Uihlein’s groups have spent a lot of money supporting Nicholson, while Wisconsin homegrown megadonor Diane Hendricks has thrown millions behind Vukmir. That healthy supply of funding has also helped keep the race competitive. The polling doesn’t paint a very clear picture, so Tuesday’s primary should be close. Marquette University, the gold-standard pollster in the state, found Vukmir with a 2-point lead in mid-July. But soon after, NBC News/Marist found Nicholson leading by 10. After the heated primary, Republicans have just a few months to rally around their candidate before the November general election. “The GOP knows it has a unity problem,” Ross said. “That acrimony is going to have some impact on their enthusiasm.” Republican donors want to oust Baldwin and turn Wisconsin red for good As evidenced in the Republican primary, GOP donor dollars have been pouring in against Baldwin. By early August, outside conservative groups had already spent $16 million in Wisconsin, according to a summary provided to Vox. For context, during the entirety of Baldwin’s 2012 Senate race — during a presidential election year, when spending is always higher — anti-Baldwin forces spent about $20 million.