Every state has its unique quirks. You can’t really understand the political dynamic in Ohio, for example, without understanding the vagaries of European immigration and the state’s rail networks. But some states are simply weird, in ways that defy easy categorization. Maine, for example, has a heavily populist and quirky streak, as exemplified by its swing from a state President Obama carried by 15 percentage points in 2012 to a state that Hillary Clinton carried by just three points. West Virginia voted for Donald Trump by over 40 points, but Democrats still maintain a healthy vitality down ballot. Montana fits into this category of “strange” states. At the presidential level, it is blood red. Voters backed Trump by 20 points in 2016, and Mitt Romney by 14 points in 2012. Yet beneath the presidential level, the politics of the state are significantly murkier. Montana has sent only a handful of Republicans to the Senate since popular elections were adopted. It routinely elects Democratic governors. Even at the presidential level, the state can be unpredictable. John McCain only won there by two points in 2008. Silver Bow County, in the mountainous west, has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1956, while Deer Lodge, just to its northwest, last voted Republican in 1924 (it favored Calvin Coolidge over Progressive candidate Robert LaFollette by 19 votes that year). The senior senator from Montana, Jon Tester, is a man uniquely well suited to take advantage of the state’s quirky nature. A farmer with a flat-top haircut and who lost three fingers on his left hand in a meat grinder accident, Tester’s populist streak fits well with the electorate. His Republican opponent is state Auditor Matt Rosendale. The race was quiet for most of the cycle, and perhaps for good reason. In 2012, for his first re-election bid, Tester faced a formidable test in U.S. Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Denny Rehberg. While Romney was carrying the state handily, Rehberg lost by four points to Tester (a libertarian took 6.6 percent of the vote). Given that Tester has another term under his belt, a weaker opponent (though still a capable one) and the national environment is worse for Republicans than 2012, many analysts started this race off with Tester as a favorite. Recent polls, however, have showed a much closer contest. In July, Remington Research, a Republican pollster, showed a three-point race. CBS/YouGov then showed a two-point race, while Gravis showed a four-point race. Tester currently leads by three points in the RCP Average. The National Republican Senatorial Committee also released polling showing a tied race. While campaign polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, the NRSC is deciding at this point in the cycle where it should concentrate resources and where to abandon ship. It would be unlikely to release this poll if the race were not close, because it would not want donors expending resources here otherwise. The bottom line is that this is still a state that Donald Trump won handily, and where the president’s national unpopularity is less of a drag. At the same time, Tester has cut a more liberal profile in Washington over the past few cycles, even helping to bring down one of Trump’s Cabinet nominees. At the same time, Tester is at 48 percent in the RCP Average, and the state does have a history of giving substantial vote shares to third parties (meaning Tester can probably win with 47 or 48 percent of the vote). This is probably not a top-tier opportunity for Republicans right now, but it has developed into a race that is very much worth keeping an eye on.<doc-sep>Republicans facing a blue wave might have found a new way to whip up their base – at least for the next few days, thanks to Brett Kavanaugh. “You know, Judge Brett Kavanaugh is a man of integrity with impeccable credentials,” Vice President Mike Pence said Tuesday, to uproarious cheers and applause, at the end of a riff about other conservative judges President Trump has nominated. Pence’s lines about Kavanaugh got a bigger rise out of the crowd than anything he said about tax reform, Obamacare or even 2016’s most reliable rallying cry – a promise to build a border wall. “I think what it’s done is basically galvanize, certainly, the Republican voters,” said Montana Republican Senate candidate Matt Rosendale. Rosendale, the state’s auditor, is hammering his opponent, Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., for his pledge to vote “no” on Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. “He promised the people of Montana that at least he was going to meet with Judge Kavanaugh, give him fair consideration,” Rosendale said. “And he didn’t.” Tester said on Tuesday that he would have loved to have met with Kavanaugh. “We put out all sorts of dates,” he said. Tester, a two-term incumbent, believes issues with Kavanaugh are much deeper than accusations that only recently surfaced. “He has made decisions supporting the Patriot act,” Tester said. “That alone is disqualifying.” Several hours after Air Force Two took off from Bozeman, Tester’s campaign responded to Wednesday’s rally, with a dig about Rosendale’s roots in Maryland. “Maybe next time Vice President Pence comes to Montana he can spend some time meeting with real Montanans instead of swooping in to try to save Rosendale’s fledgling campaign,” Tester Communications Director Chris Meagher said in a statement. Rosendale trails Tester by 3 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. But he’s got the firm backing of the vice president, whose ticket won here by 20 points in 2016. “I think it’s time for Montana,” Pence said before exiting the stage, “to vote ‘no’ on Jon Tester.”<doc-sep>BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — The Libertarian candidate in Montana’s U.S. Senate race threw his support behind Republican Matt Rosendale on Wednesday in response to an election mailer from an unknown group that appeared aimed at undermining Rosendale’s support among conservatives. Rosendale, Montana’s state auditor and insurance commissioner, is in a tight race against two-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, with the balance of power in the closely divided Senate potentially at play. Libertarian Rick Breckenridge has virtually no chance of winning. But his participation has threatened to peel away votes that might otherwise go toward the Republican and boost Tester’s chances next week. The mailer comes two days before President Donald Trump plans to hold a campaign rally in Bozeman supporting Rosendale — the president’s fourth visit to the state and an indication of how much the White House wants to unseat Tester. Trump has blamed the Democrat for derailing the nomination of his first choice to head the Veterans Affairs department. Breckenridge said in an interview that he doesn’t know the source of the mailer, which promoted him as a “true conservative” and claimed that Rosendale supports using drones to spy on private citizens. He said it appeared to be an attempt by so-called dark money groups to influence Montana’s election and that he’s decided Rosendale is the best candidate to stop such efforts. Federal election laws require campaign materials to disclose their funding source. “The reality is I’m only going to get 3 or 4 percent of the vote, and he (Rosendale) has the character to combat this issue,” Breckenridge said. “I’m standing in unity and solidarity with Matt to combat dark money in politics.” He said he disagreed with Rosendale on some issues, particularly the Republican’s support for building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, and shared Tester’s concerns about Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s stance on privacy issues. But dark money in elections is more important, Breckenridge said. The endorsement came as a surprise to other Montana Libertarians, according to Andrew Forcier, a member of the party from Columbus. Forcier said it was distressing for a Libertarian nominee to get behind a Republican candidate and that Breckenridge had never made a personal investment in the campaign to demonstrate his seriousness. “From my standpoint, Rick just wanted media exposure, and this is his way to get it,” Forcier said. The mailer is reminiscent of tactics used by Democratic-friendly groups in Tester’s 2012 race to promote Libertarian candidate Dan Cox and siphon Republican voters from Rep. Denny Rehberg. Tester won the race by 4 percentage points, and Cox captured more than 6 percent of the vote — enough to swing the election if those ballots had gone for Rehberg. Rosendale said during a Thursday conference call with Breckenridge hosted by the Republican’s campaign that he was honored to have the Libertarian’s backing. Rosendale alleged that the flier was distributed by “Jon Tester’s allies” but offered no definitive proof. Tester campaign spokesman Chris Meagher said Rosendale’s suggestion that the Democrat was involved in the mailer were false. “Jon believes all campaign expenditures should be disclosed,” Meagher said. “We condemn this mailer and any other efforts like it.” It’s uncertain who sent the mailer or how many people received it. Rosendale campaign spokesman Shane Scanlon said it went out to voters in the Billings and Flathead areas and possibly elsewhere. A copy of the mailer provided by Rosendale’s campaign and addressed to a resident in Huntley did not have a return address or say who paid for it. The claim that Rosendale supports drones for government surveillance stands in stark contrast to an advertisement from Rosendale during a failed bid for the U.S. House in 2014. It showed the candidate shooting down a drone with a rifle.<doc-sep>WASHINGTON – In a midterm election that is rallying Democrats across the nation, the bitterly fought battle for control of the Senate may be President Donald Trump's best hope for a bright spot when voters head to the polls. After months of Trump rallies and millions raised and spent, the fundamentals have not changed: Democrats are counting on a fired-up base still seething over the 2016 election to push their candidates over the edge. Republicans note that Democrats are playing defense, with 10 incumbents fighting to survive in states Trump won big. "All things considered, not that much has changed," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "This is one of the worst maps, if not the worse map, that Democrats have ever faced since the beginning of popular elections." The humming economy, the visceral debate over Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation and the country's lingering challenges in immigration and health care will play into the 35 Senate races on the ballot. Overriding all of that is Trump himself, a president who calls attention to – and critics say exacerbates – partisan divisions. Unlike in the House, Republicans are favored to hold the Senate. Despite the GOP's thin 51-49-seat margin, the map and the math have long looked tough for Democrats. More:GOP congresswoman faces closest race yet in 'year of the woman' More:Trump's midterm campaign themes: Kavanaugh, impeachment, nicknames Endangered incumbentDemocrats like North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp and Indiana’s Joe Donnelly are strong campaigners who have eschewed the party label and portrayed themselves as populists. But their states have also become increasingly Republican and both face strong, well-funded candidates. Democrats are forcing Republicans to sweat out races in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee. But the path for Democrats to pick up the two new seats they'd need to win control remains narrow. Here's a race-by-race look at the nation's key Senate contests, with ratings from Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis. Red-state Democrats Montana Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester Inside Elections rating: Tilt Democratic 2016 presidential election results: Trump: 56%, Clinton: 36% When Trump scheduled his first rally in Montana in July, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester “welcomed” him with a full-page ad in the state’s newspapers. Trump, the ad noted, had signed more than a dozen bills Tester supported in the Senate. “Thank you President Trump,” the ad read. Given the president’s 20-point margin of victory in the Treasure State in 2016, it made sense for Tester to cozy up. It was also doomed from the start. More:Montana Democrat Jon Tester on U.S. Senate race and goals Even before the midterm election season was in full swing, Tester drew barbed and personal attacks from Trump because of the controversy surrounding Ronny Jackson, the White House physician whose nomination to head the Department of Veterans Affairs was withdrawn over allegations of the freewheeling prescriptions and other misconduct. It was Tester, the 62-year-old ranking Democrat on the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, who aired many of those allegations. Trump warned Tester would “have a big price to pay” over the controversy. Now Tester is running for a third term with a razor-thin polling lead over Republican Matt Rosendale, the 58-year-old state auditor. Rosendale, who initially supported Texas Sen. Ted Cruz for president, has embraced Trump enthusiastically. Trump is a factor in every state this year, but analysts say his influence in Montana has been especially pronounced. “The Republican base remains very committed to Trump,” said Jeremy Johnson, a political scientist at Carroll College. “And Rosendale has closely associated himself with that.” Missouri Incumbent: Democrat Claire McCaskill Inside Elections rating: Toss-up 2016 presidential election results: Trump: 56.4%, Clinton: 38% Trump’s 18-point win in Missouri helped Republicans sweep every statewide office on the ballot in 2016, leaving Sen. Claire McCaskill the only Democrat still standing. Now the White House is trying to finish the job. Vice President Mike Pence helped convince Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley to run and he and Trump have hosted fundraisers and rallies for Hawley, cut ads and offered advice. There’s a lot of overlap between Missouri voters and the Trump coalition, including rural residents, blue-collar Democrats and a higher-than-average evangelical population. More:Health care, finance questions spark debate between McCaskill, Hawley Like the other red state Democrats, McCaskill has emphasized health care as an issue that energizes the base but also has appeal to other voters. She’s helped by the fact that Hawley is among the GOP attorney generals trying to overturn the Affordable Care Act in a lawsuit. While Hawley has been forced to go on the defense on health care, Republicans have sought to portray McCaskill as an elitist. One opening she gave them was using her private plane during a three-day tour of the state. Republicans are counting on the Supreme Court fight over Justice Brett Kavanaugh to goose their turnout. Democrats are trying to increase participation from African-Americans and suburban women Ballot initiatives, including proposals to legalize medical marijuana and raise the minimum wage, may also influence the outcome. “Turnout is going to be a function of a whole bunch of stuff,” said Dave Robertson, a University of Missouri political scientist, “including unpredictable impacts of some initiatives that are on the ballot that could pull out all kinds of voters.” North Dakota Incumbent: Democrat Heidi Heitkamp Inside Elections rating: Tilt Republican 2016 presidential election results: Trump: 63%, Clinton: 27% Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., had been touting how often she’s worked with Trump as she seeks re-election in a state the president carried by 36 percentage points. Then came Brett Kavanaugh. Although she was one of only three Democrats who backed Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, Heitkamp opposed Kavanaugh. She did so despite polls showing she was already running behind GOP challenger Kevin Cramer. More:Senator apologizes after naming sexual abuse victims in political ad She aired a one-minute ad explaining her vote and criticized comments Cramer made about sexual misconduct victims. But Heitkamp had to apologize for an ad that incorrectly identified victims of sexual abuse.<doc-sep>
A messy, partisan Senate confirmation fight may play the deciding role in Montana’s too-close-to-call U.S. Senate race, but it may not be the fight that first comes to mind. President Trump on Thursday will be making his third trip to the sparsely populated state, stumping in Missoula for the Republican challenger, State Auditor Matt Rosendale, or, to put it another way, stumping against two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. While both parties try to gauge the electoral fallout of the recent confirmation battle over Supreme Court Brett M. Kavanaugh, Mr. Trump’s focus here is on an earlier battle — Mr. Tester’s prominent role in torpedoing the nomination of Adm. Ronny Jackson, Mr. Trump’s White House doctor, to run the Department of Veterans Affairs this spring. Mr. Trump fumed repeatedly on Twitter over the 62-year-old Mr. Tester’s tactics in the Jackson nomination fight, which included airing accusations of personal misconduct and excessive drinking and led Adm. Jackson to withdraw. He repeated those charges on Twitter on Wednesday night and even compared Mr. Tester unfavorably to Justice Kavanaugh opponents. “Ever since his vicious and totally false statements about Admiral Ron Jackson, the highly respected White House Doctor for Obama, Bush & me, Senator [Jon] Tester looks to be in big trouble in the Great State of Montana! He behaved worse than the Democrat Mob did with Justice K!,” he wrote. Even before Wednesday night’s attack, Phil Drake, a longtime reporter for the Great Falls Tribune who is covering the race, noted the unusually personal tack Mr. Trump has taken. “I don’t know how it is in other states, but it clearly sounds personal when the president is out here,” he said. “It’s like President Trump has put a bounty on Sen. Tester’s head.” With three electoral votes and barely a million residents, Montanans aren’t used to the national attention, which on the Republican side has included stops by Vice President Mike Pence and first son Donald Trump Jr. this midterm campaign. “Before President Trump started coming here, the last president I covered personally was Bush,” Mr. Drake said, then clarifying: “George H.W. Bush.” Presidential pique aside, both Democrats and Republicans have some very practical reasons for the obsession with Montana. Mr. Tester is one of 10 Democratic senators running this cycle in a state easily carried by Mr. Trump. A Republican pick-up in Montana would almost certainly kill any Democratic hopes of taking control of the chamber next month. Throw in a tight race for the state’s only U.S. House seat in which freshman Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte is trying to hold off a well-funded Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Kathleen Williams, and the stakes in Montana grow even higher. A third-generation Montanan with a folksy manner and a relatively moderate voting record , Mr. Tester was not thought to be among the more vulnerable Democratic incumbents this cycle. But the few polls taken to date give him only a slight lead over Mr. Rosendale, and no surveys have been taken since Mr. Tester joined fellow Democrats in voting against Justice Kavanaugh earlier this month. Mr. Tester has far outraised his challenger, but more than $45 million in out-of-state money on both sides has flooded into Montana, negating at least some of the incumbent’s advantage and making for wall-to-wall political advertising in the state’s very affordable media markets. Mr. Trump appears so determined to put his imprimatur on the race that his campaign made the unusual decision to move Thursday night’s rally to a smaller venue — a hangar near the Missoula International Airport — because organizers wanted to be able to park Air Force One directly behind the president as he spoke. Both sides acknowledge Mr. Tester may be vulnerable, but that knocking him off will not be easy. Despite Mr. Trump’s popularity, the state has a history of supporting moderate Democrats and boasts a union movement much stronger than in many other Western states. His stump speech cites his work for veterans in the Senate, his support for gun rights, his deep roots in the state, his advocacy for Montana’s extensive public lands, and his ability to work across the aisle. Ironically, given the president’s interest in the race, Mr. Tester may be the only Democrat on the ballot this cycle to run a full-page “Thank You Mr. President” ad in 14 state newspapers — to highlight what the ad said were 16 bills Mr. Trump signed on veterans, government waste and other topics that Mr. Tester sponsored or co-sponsored.