By: Brittany Bedi | WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team August 9, 2018 TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast calls for 9 to 13 named storms and 4 to 7 hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, up to 2 storms could reach major hurricane strength (category 3 to 5.) According to a NOAA press release, the possibility of an El Nino pattern was taken into account when coming up with the updated forecast. This would help suppress tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Ocean. Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are also trending lower than average this year. NOAA forecasters also note that there is stronger wind shear, drier air, and stable air over the regions where hurricanes would typically form. These would also hinder some tropical development. The original forecast posted in May called for 10 to 16 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. So far, four named storms have formed in the Atlantic Basin this year. The first storm was subtropical storm Alberto. That storm brought rain and some high wind gusts and surf to the Florida Panhandle and coastal Big Bend. Two of this season's storms became hurricanes. Even though the season is not as active as previously expected, August and September are typically the most active months of the hurricane season. Hermine hit the Big Bend in September of 2016 and Irma during September 2017. It only takes one storm to make an impact, so it is still best to stay prepared for the rest of the season.<doc-sep>Less active 2018 hurricane season now predicted because of 'inhospitable' conditions U.S. forecasters now believe the Atlantic hurricane season may be less active than they previously predicted.Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an updated outlook that predicts nine to 13 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes. Up to two hurricanes could be "major" with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.Four storms already have developed this year, including two hurricanes in July.Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that oceanic and atmospheric conditions have become "much more inhospitable to hurricane formation and intensification. "Bell said the El Nino phenomenon also may develop as the six-month season peaks. That natural warming in the Pacific Ocean tends to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity.WDSU chief meteorologist Margaret Orr said Thursday that another reason there has been little activity is the dry Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic. The dry air doesn't allow for much intensification of systems that pop up over the ocean.Bell warned coastal residents the forecast doesn't predict where any storms could make landfall, which is determined by short-term weather patterns.One thing to watch will be the warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, sea surface temperatures are in the upper 80s, which can help fuel tropical systems if the conditions are there. "While the forecast is for a below-average season, it only takes one," Orr said.She wrote that there have been below-average seasons in the past that have produced major hurricanes, including hurricanes Andrew and Betsy.Keep up with local news, weather and current events with the WDSU app here. Sign up for our email newsletters to get breaking news right in your inbox. Click here to sign up! U.S. forecasters now believe the Atlantic hurricane season may be less active than they previously predicted. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an updated outlook that predicts nine to 13 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes. Up to two hurricanes could be "major" with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Advertisement Four storms already have developed this year, including two hurricanes in July. Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that oceanic and atmospheric conditions have become "much more inhospitable to hurricane formation and intensification." Bell said the El Nino phenomenon also may develop as the six-month season peaks. That natural warming in the Pacific Ocean tends to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. WDSU chief meteorologist Margaret Orr said Thursday that another reason there has been little activity is the dry Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic. The dry air doesn't allow for much intensification of systems that pop up over the ocean. Bell warned coastal residents the forecast doesn't predict where any storms could make landfall, which is determined by short-term weather patterns. One thing to watch will be the warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, sea surface temperatures are in the upper 80s, which can help fuel tropical systems if the conditions are there. "While the forecast is for a below-average season, it only takes one," Orr said. She wrote that there have been below-average seasons in the past that have produced major hurricanes, including hurricanes Andrew and Betsy. This content is imported from Facebook. You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site. Keep up with local news, weather and current events with the WDSU app here. Sign up for our email newsletters to get breaking news right in your inbox. Click here to sign up!<doc-sep>(CNN) — The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be “below-normal,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday. Experts are now expecting fewer hurricanes than they predicted in late May. “There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Nine to 13 named storms – including four to seven hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher – are predicted this season, which began June 1 and runs through November 30, the federal agency predicted. The forecast number includes the four named storms that already have formed this year. An average six-month Atlantic season typically produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes. including three major hurricanes. The latest forecast is well short of what the Atlantic experienced in 2017, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil. Last year’s season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. NOAA added Thursday that there is a 60% chance that the 2018 season will see a below-normal number of storms in the Atlantic basin. That’s up from 25% in the original forecast in May, when it looked like the basin would experience an average to above-average season. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now 30%, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35% to 10%. As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas: precisely where this year’s storms might strike. The zone extends from the Gulf Coast of Texas around Florida to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria last year put a dramatic end to a 12-year period with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States and ranked among the top five costliest hurricanes in history. The top US official over NOAA this spring offered that experience as a cautionary tale. “The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts,” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said. El Niño pattern could make for fewer storms Last year’s season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane period. La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear – the changing of wind speed and direction with height – across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development. La Niña in 2017 made way for what became “ENSO-neutral conditions” – meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present – Bell said in May, noting that El Niño could develop later in the season. Now, there is a nearly 70% likelihood of El Niño forming during this year’s hurricane season, the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms. If El Niño does develop by October, “it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season,” Bell said. But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to appear, Bell warned, “we could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range.” Sea surface temperatures also play a part Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea also have continued to remain much cooler than average, NOAA said Thursday. “Hurricanes use warm oceans as fuel to build in intensity and size. With cooler ocean temperatures, hurricane development should be below normal,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said. Cooler temperatures, combined with a strong wind shear and drier air in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes, NOAA stated.<doc-sep>
WILMINGTON — It has been a slow start to the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has lowered this season’s predictions. “Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May, though NOAA and FEMA are raising caution as the season enters its peak months,” according to a statement from NOAA. While hurricane season is not yet over, there is now an updated outlook of nine to 13 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and between no and two major hurricanes predicted. “Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent,” according to NOAA. Hurricane season begins in June and ends Nov. 30 –- currently, there have only been four named storms, two of which have been hurricanes. The average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, half of which are hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Several factors are contributing to the lowered forecast including El Niño, as well as sea surface temperatures. “NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season. Additionally, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes,” according to NOAA.