Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images New England owns an 11-game home winning streak, going 9-2 against the spread in the process. Green Bay, on the other hand, owns a five-game road losing streak, going 1-4 ATS in the process. So the NFL betting trends certainly seem to favor the Patriots heading into their Sunday night matchup with the Packers. NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as six-point favorites; the total was 57.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.4-16.8 Patriots (NFL picks on every game) Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news. Why the Packers can cover the spread Green Bay is actually coming off one of its best overall efforts of this season, albeit in a tough 29-27 loss to the undefeated Rams in Los Angeles last week. The Packers pounced out to a 10-0 lead at the L.A. Coliseum, went down 23-13 but rallied to lead 27-26 midway through the fourth. Video Play Button Videos you might like Green Bay then allowed a Los Angeles field goal to fall behind with two minutes to go, but that's a ton of time for Aaron Rodgers, right? Unfortunately, Ty Montgomery fumbled away the kickoff return and the Pack couldn't get the ball back. On Tuesday, Green Bay traded Montgomery to Baltimore. The Packers got out-gained by the Rams, but only by 57 yards. Prior to last week, Green Bay had out-gained its previous three opponents by an average of 218 yards per game. Why the Patriots can cover the spread New England ran its winning streak to five straight, including a 4-1 ATS run, by beating the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night 25-6. The Patriots scored the first nine points of the game, let the Bills get within 9-6 in the third quarter but immediately drove 85 yards to an insurance touchdown. New England then secured the cover as 13-point favorites with an 84-yard pick-six by Devin McCourty with five minutes left. On the night New England out-gained Buffalo 387-333, held a 22-16 edge in first downs and won the turnover battle 2-0, creating a plus-10 point differential. Heading into last week, the Patriots had scored at least 38 points each of their previous four games. Smart betting pick Green Bay just lost to one Super Bowl contender on one side of the country, and now takes on another contender on the other side of the country. Plus, the Packers are a bit of an emotional mess at the moment, with a whiff of dissension in the air. Meanwhile, New England seems to have recovered from that two-game losing streak back in September. Smart money here gives the points with the Patriots. NFL betting trends The total has gone under in four of the Packers' last five games vs the Patriots. The Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 14.82) The Patriots are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with losing records. All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.<doc-sep>Oh look, ESPN is writing about Spygate again Even 14 years later, the self-proclaimed world-wide leader in sports can’t stop talking about Spygate.<doc-sep>ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady often says football is the ultimate team sport, where one unit has to pick up another when it is struggling. That was the case in the Patriots' 25-6 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night, a game that showed New England can win low-scoring contests in addition to the shootouts. Brady and the offense, minus a consistent running game because of a personnel shortage that had them playing receiver Cordarrelle Patterson at running back, needed the defense to carry the day at New Era Field in front of a frenzied Bills crowd enjoying its first Monday night home game since 2008. Led by an overpowering performance from defensive end Trey Flowers, disruptive play from linebacker Kyle Van Noy and an 84-yard Devin McCourty interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the defense delivered -- albeit against one of the weakest offensive attacks in the NFL. After McCourty's interception, Brady led most of the players off the sideline to congratulate him in the end zone, which was a snapshot that reflected what the night was about. McCourty’s score was the first by the Patriots' defense since the 2015 season, a span of 40 games, which had been the longest active drought in the NFL. “It was a great play and we needed it,” Brady said. “We’ll take the win, however we can get it, try to learn from it, and move on to the next one.” Patriots linebacker Kyle Van Noy causes a Derek Anderson fumble in the second half Monday. AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes It sets up one of the most exciting matchups in the NFL next Sunday night: Brady and the Patriots vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Foxborough, Massachusetts. It's only the second time the two future Hall of Famers will meet head-to-head. Chances are good there will be a lot more points scored in that one. “It’s a big game for us. It’s a great football team. They’re in it every year and Aaron is one of the best to ever play,” Brady said. “So it will be exciting.” The Patriots, who improved to 6-2 to remain one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC, had entered Monday’s game having scored at least 38 points in each of their past four games, joining the 2014 Cowboys, 2004 Colts, 2000 Rams and 1998 Vikings for the longest single-season streaks since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. They would have matched the 1949 Eagles had they scored 38 for a fifth straight week, but it was clear early on that this was going to be an old-school, grind-it-out game. NFL scores, standings and more Everything you need this week: • 2018 playoffs coverage » • Full schedule » | Full standings » • 2019 draft order: Every first-round pick » More NFL coverage » McCourty said sticking together was a message among players in the celebratory locker room. “The last couple games, it was our offense scoring and them scoring and our offense coming back and scoring. This was a game where [our offense] was moving the ball but just couldn’t get in the end zone, so we needed to make sure Buffalo didn’t get in the end zone,” McCourty said. “Then we knew once it cracked, we had to take advantage. I thought it was a good job of playing 60 minutes -- a tough game, but finding a way to finish.” The Patriots played their first game this season without committing a turnover, which was imperative on a night in which the margin for error was thin. That was something they've been talking about for weeks, and in a credit to Buffalo’s defense, the Bills made it tough on Brady & Co. for most of the game. The Patriots’ defense took care of the rest, knowing a much stiffer test awaits next Sunday, when Rodgers comes to town.<doc-sep>The New England Patriots still have to take care of business Monday night against the Buffalo Bills, but everyone else has their attention turned to next Sunday’s battle with another No. 12. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will travel to Gillette Stadium for a duel with Tom Brady and the Pats on “Sunday Night Football.” For a number of years the Brady vs. Rodgers debate has raged on, with TB12’s five championships being pitted against Rodgers’ raw talent, which might be the best the NFL has ever seen. So in preparation for the battle of the GOATs, NBC had the ultimate GOAT narrate a hype video that’s sure to get you ready for the marquee matchup. We’ll let Michael Jordan take it away: How do you settle the debate over who is the ?Greatest of All Time?? @Jumpman23 wants to see it happen head-to-head. pic.twitter.com/L4v6kOvJfF — SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 29, 2018 Obviously, the debate won’t be settled in a Week 9 game, but it still will be nice to see Brady and Rodgers go head-to-head for the first time since 2014. Thumbnail photo via Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports Images<doc-sep>
The NFL’s two best quarterbacks will face off Sunday night when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (5-2) host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-3-1). Of course, it isn’t just the future Hall of Famers that will determine the outcome in the Week 9 matchup. New England is a significant favorite at home, laying 5.5 points against Green Bay, according to OddsShark. It marks the second straight week in which the NFC’s top passer is a heavy underdog. Rodgers was the biggest underdog of his career in Week 8, getting nearly 10 points when Green Bay visited the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers covered the spread and came as close anyone has to beating the undefeated Rams, but they ultimately fell short with a 29-27 loss. Playing that well against another tough road opponent for a second straight week will be difficult. L.A. is the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC, and New England has the best championship odds in the AFC. The Rams still haven’t lost, but it might be the Patriots that are playing better football at the moment. By defeating the Buffalo Bills 25-6 on “Monday Night Football,” the Patriots extended their winning streak to five games. New England has been a different team since trading for Josh Gordon and getting Julian Edelman back from his suspension. New England has scored at least 38 eight points in four of their last five victories. Only the Rams, Saints and Chiefs are scoring more points per game. Green Bay’s had an uneven season with three wins in seven games. They haven’t won away from Lambeau Field. Since beating the Chicago Bears in Week 1 with the best comeback of the first half of the season, the Packers are 0-3-1 against teams that have at least three wins. Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images The Packers came close to beating the Rams last week. They probably would have pulled off the upset if Ty Montgomery hadn’t fumbled a kickoff with less than two minutes remaining. The way Green Bay played in Los Angeles is the way they’ll have to perform Sunday if they hope to win in New England. Jared Goff finished the game with 295 passing yards and a 111.0 passer rating, but he was uncomfortable for much of the afternoon. The quarterback was under constant pressure. Goff was sacked by the Packers five times after being sacked 12 times in his previous seven games. Green Bay got the better of what had arguably been the NFL’s best offensive line, and they’ll have to do the same in Week 9. Doing so won’t be easy, especially considering Brady has avoided sacks even better than Goff. The five-time Super Bowl champion has been sacked just 11 times in eight games. Brady will carve up Green Bay’s defense if he has time to throw. The quarterback has too many weapons with Gordon, Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and James White at his disposal. The Packers are 22nd in opponents’ passer rating, and they’ll be playing their first game without safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who was traded before Tuesday’s deadline. Sony Michel is expected to be back on the field Sunday night. The running back averaged 105 yards on 4.7 yards per carry in the three games before he got hurt in Chicago. Rodgers should put up his usual impressive numbers. The quarterback has averaged 331 yards, two passing touchdowns and no interceptions for a 101.7 passer rating against the Rams, Lions and Redskins on the road. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined 24 points. Even when the Patriots didn’t look like the Patriots during the first three weeks of the season, they still managed to score 27 points at home in Week 1. New England is 4-0 at Gillette Stadium, averaging 35.8 points per game. The Patriots have won 11 of their last 12 home games, going 9-3 against the spread, per OddsShark. The Packers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, and that trend should hold up against the defending AFC champions. Prediction: New England over Green Bay, 38-27