Box Office Predictions: Dumbo While 2019 started off slow at the box office, Captain Marvel and Us have given the box office the jolt of energy that it needs before we hit April and the long-anticipated Avengers: Endgame. In fact, Captain Marvel has done so well domestically, that if it were its own movie studio, it would be the fourth-highest grossing film studio of the year. It has almost single-handedly pushed Disney to the second highest grossing studio of the year thus far, and is almost certainly going to take over this week with the release of Dumbo. Dumbo is the first of Disney’s three live-action reimaginings that will be released this year, with Aladdin and The Lion King coming in the next few months. Admittedly, Dumbo is probably the least exciting of these new releases and will be successful primarily because it carries that Disney branding. So now let’s jump into our look at how well Dumbo will do at the box office this weekend. Currently, the industry expectation is between $40 million to $60 million, and I feel like that is pretty much in line with what to expect from Dumbo. The last Disney reimagining was Beauty and the Beast, which opened to a monster $174.8 million in 2017. Beauty and the Beast had the benefit of being based on one of the most popular Disney films the was released during the Disney Renaissance, arguably the most popular period of Disney Animation. Dumbo was released in 1941 to a lot of success. Over the years, Dumbo has not held up as well as some other classic films, but it does have the benefit of every child’s favorite Disney Parks attraction, Dumbo the Flying Elephant. It simply doesn’t have the allure of Beauty and the Beast or even something like The Jungle Book. With all of that in mind, I’m predicting a total weekend box office of $55.7 million for Dumbo. With the total weekend prediction handled, let’s take a closer look at how Dumbo will fare each day of the weekend. To help with my predictions, I looked at some other Disney Live-Action Reimaginings, namely, The Jungle Book, Maleficent, Cinderella and Alice in Wonderland. The Jungle Book is very similar to Dumbo in that neither has really gotten its due over the years and often get forgotten about in comparison to other Disney films. Maleficent is an interesting comp because it was pretty different from the original film, like Dumbo, but it also had the extra aspect of being shaped around a villain. Next, we have Cinderella, which is comparative to Dumbo timewise in terms of when the films were released, but it has the extra bonus of being based around a princess. Alice in Wonderland is the most intriguing comparison because both of the films were directed by Tim Burton. Alice did amazingly well at the box office, but lately his name has not meant much in terms of dollar return. His last four films have combined to make less than Alice in Wonderland‘s entire gross, with no one film’s total gross even matching Alice‘s opening weekend. Day Jungle Book Maleficent Cinderella Alice in Wonderland Average Change %Gross Change %Gross Change %Gross Change %Gross Change %Gross Friday — 31.00% — 34.99% — 33.88% — 35.15% — 33.76% Saturday 27.48% 39.52% 5.98% 37.09% 17.65% 39.86% 8.34% 38.08% 14.87% 38.64% Sunday -25.42% 29.47% -24.73% 27.92% -34.12% 26.26% -29.68% 26.78% -28.49% 27.61% As you can see, there is a wide variety of data to sort through, but one thing is certain, Dumbo will gross more on Saturday than it does on Friday. Without exception, each film did better on Saturday than it did Friday because they are all family films and with students generally in school during the week, these films tend to rake in the money on Saturdays. After looking at the data, I decided to focus more on Maleficent and Cinderella because there is almost no way that Dumbo will even approach the $100+ million opening weekends of Jungle Book and Alice in Wonderland. Maleficent and Cinderella both opened in the high $60 million range, which is still high but are apter comparisons. With this in mind, I’m predicting an opening day for Dumbo of $18.6 million, which includes the Thursday previews and represents 33.5% of the weekend box office, which is pretty in line with all of the comparisons. On Saturday, I’m expecting an increase of 15.5%, to $21.5 million, 38.7% of the total weekend box office. This increase is close to Cinderella because we haven’t had a family film since How to Dragon Your Dragon 3, and spring breaks are starting so families will be anxious to go early. Finally, I see Sunday dropping 28% to $15.5 million, 27.8% of the weekend box office and matching up well with expectations. All in all, I think that Dumbo is not going to be able to meet expectations, especially with its 56% Rotten Tomatoes score. It simply hasn’t inspired people to want to go and see it. My $55.7 million estimate is almost definitely a bit high, but you’ll have to check back in on Monday when the official results are released for how well (or poorly) I predicted.<doc-sep>Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG executives ignored warnings from colleagues about troubled steel tycoon Sanjeev Gupta as they channeled $1.2 billion of client funds to his businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.Bankers in Credit Suisse’s commodity trade-finance unit blacklisted Gupta’s Liberty Commodities Ltd. in 2016 because they suspected some of its deals weren’t legitimate, the people said. When they learned about two years later that the bank was lending to his companies through a suite of investment funds, which eventually grew to $10 billion, they flagged their worries to leaders in compliance and the division that housed the loans, one of the people said.The disclosure that Credit Suisse may have put clients at risk despite internal concerns over Gupta’s businesses adds a new twist to the debacle stemming from the March implosion of Greensill Capital, the finance firm at the center of the three-way relationship.Investigations, LawsuitsThe U.K. Serious Fraud Office is now investigating Gupta’s group of companies for suspected fraud, including in its financing deals with Greensill, according to a May 14 statement. Credit Suisse has sued to force Gupta’s Liberty Commodities into insolvency and has since shut the funds that made the loans and launched an internal investigation. Investors are staring at losses as the bank confronts embarrassing lawsuits.“We are currently focusing our efforts on recovering our investors’ money,” Will Bowen, a spokesman for Credit Suisse in London, said in an emailed statement, adding that the bank’s internal probe will focus on “all of the issues” linked to the funds. “We are committed to learning the lessons and will share the relevant lessons learnt at the appropriate time.”Andrew Mitchell, a spokesman for the Gupta Family Group Alliance, or GFG Alliance, a collective of businesses linked to Gupta including Liberty Commodities, denied any wrongdoing.The Greensill saga represents just one of the two disasters that rocked Credit Suisse in the first half of 2021. Since Greensill began unraveling, the bank has announced a $5.5 billion hit from the blowup at Archegos Capital Management.ApologiesFormer Chairman Urs Rohner apologized to shareholders and his successor, Antonio Horta-Osorio, who arrived at the end of April, has promised a sweeping strategy review.Chief Executive Officer Thomas Gottstein, who was head of the division that oversaw trade finance, wasn’t aware of the internal concerns about Gupta that had prompted the bank to cut him off, according to a person familiar with the matter.Employees at the trade-finance unit, which lends money for the buying and selling of commodities, cut ties with Gupta in 2016 after becoming skeptical toward his Liberty Commodities, the people said. They distrusted the documents the company provided, triggering doubts about its transactions, they said. In one example reported by Bloomberg, the company had presented another bank with what seemed to be duplicate shipping receipts. A spokesman for Gupta has denied any wrongdoing.Banking TiesLiberty Commodities pledged assets to Credit Suisse as security for borrowings in 2013 but by early 2016, all such commitments had been extinguished, indicating that the financing relationship had ceased, U.K. Companies House filings show. And while Gupta’s company listed the Swiss bank as one of its lenders in its 2014 annual report, it didn’t in the following year’s report, which is dated May 2016, according to the filings.Their counterparts at other banks, including Macquarie Group Ltd. and Sberbank PJSC, halted trading with Liberty Commodities around the same time because of similar concerns; Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also stopped in 2016, Bloomberg has reported.Nevertheless, executives at Credit Suisse’s asset-management division -- which creates investment products for clients and charges a fee for overseeing them -- began arranging a suite of funds focused on supply-chain finance in 2017. The entities bought securitized loans packaged by Greensill, a firm created by Australian businessman Lex Greensill. Much of the debts were linked to Gupta’s businesses.WarningsOfficials at the commodity trade-finance unit were concerned when they found out about the funds’ links to Gupta and took their fears to Thomas Grotzer, general counsel for the bank’s Swiss division. They also warned Luc Mathys and Lukas Haas, the bankers who helped oversee the trades at the asset-management unit.Grotzer was promoted last month to interim global head of compliance at Credit Suisse. He didn’t respond to requests for comment. Mathys, head of fixed-income at the asset-management division, and Haas, a portfolio manager, were put on temporary leave in March. Neither responded to requests for comment.The bank pushed ahead with the funds and marketed them to investors as being made up of short-term debt secured on invoices, assets considered so safe that Credit Suisse gave the largest vehicle its lowest rating for risk. Yet part of the loans were linked to mere possible future revenues.Other parts of the bank continued working with Gupta as well. Credit Suisse’s investment bankers were due to lead an initial public offering for Liberty’s U.S. steel arm, which was ultimately pulled, according to a statement from the company. Gupta also announced that the Swiss bank would finance his planned acquisition of Thyssenkrupp AG’s steel unit, which fell apart earlier this year.Credit Suisse has so far recouped about $5.9 billion of the $10 billion in these supply-chain funds, but it remains unclear how much will be returned ultimately to investors. Loans to Gupta’s businesses are among a batch of debts that are the “principal sources of valuation uncertainty,” the bank said earlier this month.Liberty Commodities’s external legal advisors investigated “alleged rumors concerning the paperwork” it used in 2019, according to Mitchell, the spokesman for GFG Alliance. They found no evidence to substantiate the rumors, nor was the company “ever subject to further complaints or proceedings,” he said.“LCL has ongoing banking relationships with separate financial institutions,” Mitchell said, referring to Liberty Commodities. “The trade-finance market has been hugely challenging for all but the very largest commodities traders in recent years. Nevertheless, no financial institution has been left out of pocket as a result of lending money to LCL. On the contrary, they have received substantial commercial returns.”More stories like this are available on bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.<doc-sep>Seventy-eight years after the original “Dumbo” hit theaters, Walt Disney Co. is ready to soar to the top of the box office charts this weekend on a pair of oversized elephant ears. The Burbank studio’s latest live-action remake is expected to open with $50 million to $58 million in ticket sales from the U.S. and Canada from Thursday night through Sunday, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys. That means director Tim Burton’s modern take on “Dumbo” will probably unseat Jordan Peele’s horror hit “Us” as the No. 1 domestic film. The $20-million Universal Pictures release opened with a better-than-expected $70 million last weekend. “Dumbo,” which cost an estimated $170 million to make, should be the latest film to give the box office a lift after a rocky start to the year. Movies have generated $2.2 billion in North America so far this year, down 17% from the same period in 2018, according to measurement firm Comscore. Hits including “Us” and “Captain Marvel” have helped boost sales after a lackluster start. Advertisement Flying circus “Dumbo” represents another test of Disney’s strategy of reviving its animated classics as big-budget cinematic epics, an effort that has resulted in successes including “Beauty and the Beast” ($1.3 billion in worldwide sales) and “The Jungle Book” ($966 million). While analysts do not expect “Dumbo” to reach those heights, projections suggest the film will enjoy a solid opening with family audiences. ‘Dumbo’ isn’t your grandfather’s Disney classic » It’s the first of multiple live-action re-imaginings on Disney’s 2019 schedule, which also promises new versions of “Aladdin,” “The Lion King” and a “Maleficent” sequel. Reviews for “Dumbo” have been lukewarm, indicated by a Rotten Tomatoes score of about 50% as of Tuesday. Burton, known for bringing cinematic misfits such as “Edward Scissorhands” and “Beetlejuice” to the big screen, previously remade “Alice in Wonderland” into a successful live-action blockbuster for Disney in 2010 (the 2016 sequel flopped). The new “Dumbo” is nearly twice as long as the 1941 original, with an expanded story about a struggling circus owner (Danny DeVito) who enlists a former performer (Colin Farrell) and his kids to care for the oddball pachyderm. The movie also features Michael Keaton as an ambitious entertainment entrepreneur, as well as a new version of the Oscar-nominated song “Baby Mine” by the Canadian indie rock band Arcade Fire. ‘Us’ and them “Us,” about a family besieged by doppelgangers while on vacation, is expected to gross about $35 million in its second weekend, probably putting it in second place. That would be a roughly 50% decline from its opening. Typically, horror films drop by 60% in their second week, but the word-of-mouth praise for “Us,” strong reviews and Peele’s reputation as the incisive filmmaker behind “Get Out” should buttress the movie’s performance. Meanwhile, Marvel Studios’ “Captain Marvel,” starring Brie Larson, appears to be headed toward the $1-billion box office milestone. The superhero film has collected $912 million so far, including $321 million in the U.S. and Canada and $591 million overseas. Advertisement The big films face virtually no competition this weekend. Faith-based distributor Pure Flix is releasing the anti-abortion drama “Unplanned,” about a Planned Parenthood clinic director who becomes an anti-abortion activist. Indie film company Neon will debut “The Beach Bum,” starring Matthew McConaughey playing to type as a rebellious burnout named Moondog. “The Beach Bum” was written and directed by Harmony Korine, known for the cult hit “Spring Breakers.”<doc-sep>If you hadn’t already noticed that Disney has — for some *cough* mercenary *cough* reason — embarked on a project to produce live-action remakes of all its classic animated films, 2019 is the year you will no longer be able to avoid this depressing reality. After 2015’s Cinderella, 2016’s The Jungle Book and 2017’s Beauty and the Beast, this year will bring, in rapid succession over the next few months, new versions of Dumbo, Aladdin, and The Lion King. Might as well lie back and enjoy this forced march of nostalgia, because it will be tough to avoid, the way saturation marketing works these days. First up is Dumbo, the most soulless of the remakes so far, and the one that bears the least resemblance to its progenitor movie. In the way of his other recent fantasy projects — Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, Dark Shadows, Alice in Wonderland — director Tim Burton continues his campaign to convince us that he has become a parody of himself. (His Big Eyes is great. Maybe he needs to stick to quirk-tinged true stories these days.) Burton, again more devoted to baroque visual curlicues here than to emotional authenticity, manages to sap the formerly charming little weirdo bullied baby elephant of his sweetness and, ironically, the truth of his story. (Ahem! If Burton had turned this into Big Ears, it might have been great.) In the same way that fiction can often have more to say than reality, stylized animation can often have a bigger impact than “live action.” Sometimes sincerity and plausibility are better conveyed via simple sketches full of passion than via ostensibly photorealistic CG rendering drained of all character. I mean! Add 80 years of social-justice-warriorhood on from the original 1941 Dumbo and combine it with a vaguely realistic CGI baby elephant with big blue eyes, and you end up with a primary response to Burton’s Dumbo that is this: Why are our (semi)sentient, obviously emotional cousins being held captive in this nightmare circus?! Sure, yes, this Dumbo is set in 1919, long before there was any sort of mass cultural appreciation for the fact that *checks notes* highly social, highly intelligent elephants are not performing monkeys, and performing monkeys shouldn’t be performing monkeys either anyway. And yes, this Dumbo waves an amorphous hand at the notion that our animal cousins shouldn’t be forced to perform for the amusement of us humans. But this is still a movie that is all about cruel captivity and coerced entertainment… you know, for kids! And yet, the movie’s bizarre inability to read the cultural room while it thinks it is doing precisely that is the least bad thing about this new Dumbo. For one perplexing thing, it’s tough to call this “live-action” when so much of it is CGI anyway, from the clearly fakey baby elephant with the enormous ears that allow him to fly, to the weirdly anachronistic post-steampunk yet somehow 1950s-ish-retro-future vibe of the production design — this is, recall, set in 1919 — to the impossibly golden sunlight and impossibly mystical fairway-esque glow that allegedly drenches much of what we see here. Very little in this movie, beyond the faces of the human cast, looks actually real, or strikes with much visceral impact.<doc-sep>
Disney’s upcoming adaptation of “Dumbo” is taking flight this weekend. Directed by Tim Burton, the studio’s live-action re-imagining of the 1941 cartoon is expected to earn roughly $50 million when it launches in 4,200 North American venues. Independent tracking services anticipate the opening weekend could fall anywhere between $40 million and $58 million. Should those estimates hold, “Dumbo” looks to easily nab the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office. However, that would be a smaller debut than the studio’s other remakes like 2017’s “Beauty and the Beast” ($174 million) and 2016’s “The Jungle Book” ($103 million). Those two titles were massive successes for the Mouse House, capping off their theatrical runs with $1.2 billion and $966 million worldwide, respectively. Part of the reason for the softer opening is likely because the original film about “Dumbo” hit screens in 1941. “The Jungle Book” was released in 1967 while “Beauty and the Beast” bowed in 1991, making the character seem slightly dated. “Dumbo” is the first of three Disney remakes returning to the big screen in 2019: Guy Ritchie’s take on “Aladdin” and Jon Favreau’s star-studded “The Lion King” are both arriving this summer. Those films, along with the studio’s highly anticipated superhero mashup “Avengers: Endgame,” will likely offset any pain should “Dumbo” fail to connect with audiences. Reviews don’t necessarily sway the target demographic for kid-friendly films, but it doesn’t look like “Dumbo” will benefit from word-of-mouth. The fantasy adventure hasn’t received the same kind of love from critics that other classic adaptations have enjoyed. It currently holds a tepid 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. Variety’s Owen Gleiberman called the movie “forgettable,” saying “it transforms a gentle and miraculous tale into a routine story by weighing it down with a lot of nuts and bolts it didn’t need.” “Dumbo” will also face formidable competition on the family front. Disney’s “Captain Marvel” is still powering the domestic box office, and next weekend sees the release of Warner Bros. “Shazam,” a lighter, more comedic take on the superhero genre that could entice younger crowds. “Dumbo” expands on the original hour-long cartoon about an baby elephant with inconveniently large ears. This adventure takes place at a struggling circus, where its former star (Colin Farrell) and his two kids are enlisted by the ringmaster (Danny Devito) to care for a newborn pachyderm nicknamed Dumbo. When the children discover that the animal can fly, a nefarious businessman (Michael Keaton) lures Dumbo to be the main attraction at his new amusement park. “Dumbo’s” biggest obstacle for first place is a whole lot scarier than a villainous Michael Keaton. Universal’s “Us,” from writer-director Jordan Peele, could have a very lucrative second weekend in theaters. The terrifying thriller about a family forced to fend off their blood-thirsty doppelgangers shattered expectations when it delivered a stellar $70 million debut. Horror movies have notoriously steep drop-offs, but hype surrounding Peele’s second directorial effort might just be enough to keep moviegoers around. Even if it doesn’t have the kind of hold that “Get Out,” Peele’s debut film that became a cultural touchstone, saw in its second weekend, “Us” will still have reason to cheer. It more than quadrupled its $20 million production budget in its first three days of release — a scary-good result. The high-flying elephant isn’t the only newcomer jetting into multiplexes this weekend. Pure Flix’s Christian drama “Unplanned” and Neon’s comedy “The Beach Bum” will also arrive on the silver screen. “Unplanned,” which tells the true story of a Planned Parenthood employee who has a life-changing experience, is aiming for single digits, around $3 million, when it debuts on 1,000 screens. It cost $6 million to produce. Meanwhile, Matthew McConaughey’s stoner comedy “The Beach Bum” will play on 750 screens. McConaughey portrays a rebellious burnout attempting to write the next great American novel. The film, which premiered at this year’s South by Southwest to mixed reviews, also stars Snoop Dogg, Isla Fisher, Zac Efron, and Jimmy Buffett.