Children in jeopardy dominate the shorts this year. The shorts and animation branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences chose its final five from 140 qualifying films. In order to qualify for Oscar contention, shorts have to win an award at an eligible film festival. Last year’s winner, for example, Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton’s “The Silent Child,” debuted at the Rhode Island International Film Festival before going on to win the Academy Award. Many Academy voters don’t catch up with these shorts from emerging filmmakers around the world until they’re nominated. This year’s five contenders hail from four countries, and deal with a disturbing range of dark subjects, often involving children in jeopardy. Irish director Vincent Lambe’s controversial, true-life drama, “Detainment,” focuses on the shocking 1993 Liverpool murder of a toddler by two 10-year-old boys, who are interrogated by skeptical police. Jérémy Comte’s 16-minute Sundance winner, “Fauve,” also focuses on children enmeshed in terrible circumstances beyond their control. When Tyler (Félix Grenier) and Benjamin (Alexandre Perrault) explore a gaping mine, they step into a bed of soggy concrete that threatens not to let them go. Rodrigo Sorogoyen’s riveting Goya-winner, “Mother” (“Madre”), follows an increasingly panicked woman (Marta Nieto) as her six-year-old son calls on a failing phone to report that his father has left him alone on an isolated beach. The mother tries to nail down his location as he reports that a strange man is approaching him. “Run into the woods!” she cries. Israeli Guy Nattiv’s creepy English-language “Skin,” about a family of skinheads, has already become a feature starring Vera Farmiga and Jamie Bell. Jonathan Tucker and “Patti Cake$” breakout Danielle Macdonald play the parents of a young son (Jackson Robert Scott). Fox Searchlight picked this one up, its fourth in recent months, to screen on its social media channels including YouTube. The short that is unlike all the others, French-Canadian Marianne Farley’s acclaimed “Marguerite,” stars Béatrice Picard as an elderly woman who bonds with her nurse (Sandrine Bisson) as she looks back at her past, stimulated by old photographs. This is the sort of poignant heart-tugger that older Academy voters love. Eric Kohn contributed to this report. The five nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win: “Marguerite” “Fauve” “Skin” “Madre” “Detainment” Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.<doc-sep>How many trophies will The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, and Roma wind up with? Photo: Vulture, Fox Searchlight Pictures, Focus Features and Netflix The ballots have been cast, the meets have been greeted, and the mud has been slung. This year’s Academy Award results are locked in stone, and now all we have to do is await the official unveiling on Sunday night. Need some last-minute help with your Oscar pool? Here are our predictions in every single category of the most unpredictable, snakebitten Oscars in years. Best Picture Black Panther BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody The Favourite Green Book Roma A Star Is Born Vice What will win: When I ask industry people how many nominees could win Best Picture, they usually name three or four films: Green Book, Roma, and a wild card or two. So let’s dispense with the others and consider the case of Green Book versus Roma. Each had solid pickups at the precursors, with Green Book triumphing at the Producers Guild, which uses the same kind of preferential ballot as the Oscars, and Roma winning the Directors Guild and BAFTA. Each had a big miss at the nominations, as Green Book’s Peter Farrelly couldn’t crack a directing category that leaned international, and Roma’s languid long takes failed to score it an editing nod. And each has campaigned as the movie whose win would send a strong message against the forces of hate. In terms of content, Green Book looks like the giant, with Roma the underdog: One is old-school awards bait, a civil-rights road movie about the power of interracial friendship; the other is a black-and-white Netflix movie with no stars and lots of subtitles. But zoom out and their roles are reversed: One is a mid-budget studio film by a director who used to make dumb comedies, and that had little advance buzz before TIFF; the other is the dream project of an Oscar-anointed filmmaker, backed by Netflix’s bottomless budget and the awards team that steered countless Miramax films to gold. Ultimately, I’m going Roma. The anxiety about what Netflix means for the industry is real, but for an Academy that’s very aware of what their choices look like, Alfonso Cuarón’s film feels like the pick that voters won’t have to worry about holding up ten years from now. What could steal: A certain segment of Academy voters were wounded by the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, and exhausted by the three years of backlash against La La Land, Three Billboards, and Green Book. Spite is a powerful motivator, and this kind of revanchism could wind up spurring a Green Book win. If both of the two front-runners prove too controversial to triumph in the preferential ballot, something like The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman could notch a surprise victory. Best Director Alfonso Cuarón, Roma ﻿Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War Adam McKay, Vice Who will win: Cuarón is one of the the night’s biggest presumed favorites, having won nearly every single Best Director prize the season offered. Great filmmakers can sometimes be chilly figures, but Cuarón’s been a captivating character on the circuit, with one insider noting that he has the Clintonian gift of making everyone he speaks to feel like the only person in the room. Who could steal: Not only has Spike Lee never won a Best Director trophy, he’s never even been nominated in this category before BlacKkKlansman. A win for him here would also be the first-ever directing Oscar for a black filmmaker, and the chance to correct that historic injustice by handing a trophy to the extremely quotable Lee could be too enticing to pass up. Best Actor Christian Bale, Vice Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Who will win: Despite the efforts of every film critic in America, voters like Bohemian Rhapsody, and they love Malek in it. He gets credit not just for transforming himself into Freddie Mercury, but also shepherding the movie through the Bryan Singer scandal. Who could steal: The Star Is Born fan in me still harbors dreams of Cooper’s directing snub powering a comeback win in Best Actor, but this is probably just fantasy. Best Actress Yalitza Aparicio, Roma Glenn Close, The Wife Olivia Colman, The Favourite Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Who will win: Close has been nominated six previous times without a win, and she comes into the Oscars having won every major prize this season save the BAFTA. People aren’t exactly doing jumping jacks over The Wife, but she’s a respected figure who fought hard to get the film made, and she’s made no secret of what this award would mean to her. Who could steal: Colman was a revelation in The Favourite, and the film has a lot more fans than The Wife. A big night for the scabrous period piece could power her to an unexpected victory. Best Supporting Actor Mahershala Ali, Green Book Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell, Vice Who will win: Ali has weathered a rocky season well, standing up for the film and his performance without making excuses for bad behavior. He’s generally regarded as the best thing about the Green Book, and recognizing his tight, mannered performance provides an avenue for fans to reward the movie without everyone yelling at them. Who could steal: Ali just won this award two years ago, and the Academy doesn’t usually love handing someone another trophy so soon. I’ve been noticing a late surge of support for Grant, who’s livened up this season with his refreshing glee on the circuit. Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams, Vice Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone, The Favourite Marina de Tavira, Roma Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Who will win: This is the hardest acting category to predict. King is the critics’ pick who’s repping a film Oscar didn’t love, and has been surprisingly left out of some major precursors. De Tavira is the surprise nominee who some pundits think could go all the way. And Weisz is a past winner who effortlessly navigates her movie’s peculiar tone. I’ve gone back and forth all year, but I think the desire to give The Favourite its due will put Weisz’s puckish performance over the top. Who could steal: King comes in with the most hardware so far, and she has the benefit of never having won before. And a win for de Tavira in one of the broadcast’s first categories would be an early indicator of a big night for Roma. Best Original Screenplay Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite Paul Schrader, First Reformed Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly, Green Book Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Adam McKay, Vice What will win: You should never bet on a non–Best Picture nominee in the screenplay categories, which means First Reformed is out. This category often figures as a runner-up prize for a contender that won’t get Picture or Director, and that feels like The Favourite to me, a script that also has the benefit of some of the year’s most memorable one-liners. What could steal: A Roma or Green Book trophy could be a tip-off of which direction voters are leaning in Best Picture. Best Adapted Screenplay Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk ﻿Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born What will win: Can You Ever Forgive Me? is coming off a surprise win at the WGAs, but again, it’s hard to go against a Best Picture nominee. A victory for BlacKkKlansman here lets the Oscars finally give Spike a competitive trophy while still handing Best Director to Cuarón. What could steal: Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk, both of which beat BlacKkKlansman at least once in the precursors. Best Animated Feature Incredibles 2 Isle of Dogs Mirai<doc-sep>NEW YORK -- With 32 years of experience covering the Oscars, Entertainment Reporter Sandy Kenyon knows a thing or two about the interworkings of award shows.This year, he's predicting an award ceremony with high ratings, despite its lack of a host -- just as long as Snow White and Rob Lowe refrain from singing another duet.For the Best Actress category, "it's time" for one nominee to take home the gold, but for best actor, it's a toss-up between two biopic stars.Who will win Best Picture this year? Sandy's rooting for Black Panther, but he thinks another movie is better positioned for a win.If you're joining an Oscars pool -- or you want to mark a few nominees off your watch list before the big night -- listen to what Sandy has to say.<doc-sep>
In anticipation of a poor viewership for this Sunday’s Academy Awards ceremony (at 8 p.m. on ABC), producers have been scrambling for ways to trim the program to keep it to three hours. Winners of Best Cinematography and Best Live Action Short are among those who will receive awards during commercial breaks. Their segments will be edited in later, without the dull walk to the stage. While short film nominees have never had a ton of clout compared to feature films’ movie stars, their work is increasingly being shown at art house theaters in three respective programs: Animated, Documentary, and Live Action. (Check out local screenings at Coolidge Corner Theatre, Somerville Theatre, Kendall Square Cinema and the Institute of Contemporary Art.) The art of making a good short film is far too underrated. And this year, while there are some standouts, there's a number of nominees I'd just as soon strike from my memory. I watched them all so you don't have to. Here’s an overview of each category, and my picks for each: Animated Shorts The Animated Shorts is the best overall program and the one I can recommend without losing sleep. The daunting potential with animation — exaggerate reality or blow it off altogether — makes for a kind of lawless landscape, and could be why short animated story arcs tend to fall back on the birth-reproduce-death formula. Those elements show up in three of this year’s five nominees: “Bao,” Pixar’s take on a mother’s empty nest grief; “One Small Step,” about a shoe-making father who supports his daughter’s dream to become an astronaut; and “Late Afternoon,” in which a grown daughter cares for her forgetful, aging mother. All three are beautifully crafted, heartfelt life-cycle stories and all three will draw up welled emotions. “Late Afternoon” in particular maximizes the animated form to convey how memories flutter in and out of our minds, how it can be difficult to reconcile many past versions of selves with the one we are now. It’s lovely and my runner-up pick. (Another nominee, “Animal Behavior,” offers levity as a support group with dog, bird, amoeba, and so on argue nature versus nurture but it doesn’t hold up to its competitors.) My pick for this category is “Weekends.” The short focuses on a child’s complicated experience of his parents’ divorce. Every Friday, a sweet-faced boy drags his suitcase from the stoop of his mother’s country home toward his dad’s car, engine running. They drive toward Seattle in a haze of cigarette smoke and ZZ Top and spend the weekend eating takeout and watching gory movies. The child falls asleep atop the father’s life-sized horse statue overlooking the cityscape. His dreams borrow from lives with both parents, where colors brighten then dim. It’s no better or worse at either place, just different, and jarringly so. As in any family, it becomes hard to decipher if emotional reality originates more with the parents or the child. This is the kind of ponderous yet compact storytelling deserving of an Oscar win. Documentary Shorts The Documentary category reflects concerns over racism both homegrown and abroad, gender barriers, migration and mortality. It’s a fine enough batch but does not in sum reflect the breadth of what’s possible nor the excellence of nonfiction playing elsewhere. “A Night at the Garden” is a 7-minute film drawn from archival footage that lays bare American racism and Nazism. In it 20,000 uniformed, mostly male Americans gather at Madison Square Garden to rally a return of the United States to “the people who founded it.” The year is 1939 but the film is being recirculated for, perhaps obviously, similar outcries today. Two other films, “Period. End of Sentence,” about how a menstrual pad-making machine gives women in India jobs and a new type of freedom, and “Lifeboat,” about a European marine rescue operation, adopt the point of view of the nonprofits that back the causes. As is too often the case in such instances, the result, especially with “Period,” comes off more commercial than balanced. A strong contender in this category, “Black Sheep,” recounts one man’s experience of racism in the U.K. He tells how he befriended the white, racist kids who beat him up as a survival mechanism, changing his accent and attire.