The first weekend of playoff action lived up to its name -- Wild Card Weekend was wild, with three road teams, all underdogs, pulling off upsets. It was nearly a clean sweep, with the Seattle Seahawks holding a second-half lead over the Dallas Cowboys before coming up short. Can the trend hold? I tend to think so, primarily because of the matchups these teams are facing in the coming weekend. History already tells us there should be some kind of underdog win: since 1990 there have been 31 upsets in the divisional round. That's not a ton. But of those 31, 22 have happened since 2004, an average of 1.5 upsets per season, and 14 of them have come in the last 10 years, so the trend has held pretty steady. Only two of those upsets have been by home teams (Philly over Atlanta last year, San Francisco over New Orleans back in 2011). Half of those 14 wins by underdogs came by heavy 'dogs, with seven teams who were favored by seven points or more falling in the divisional round. Suggesting there will be three upsets by road teams this week is asking a lot, especially with Vegas pegging all four of these games as more than the standard three points for home-field advantage. However, since 2008, divisional-round underdogs of four points or more are 17-12 against the spread. That's not bad, but wipe out the Patriots -- we're taking out the Patriots because they've destroyed a litany of young/questionable quarterbacks when Bill Belichick has an extra week to prepare -- from this study, and you realize underdogs do really well (15-6) in this spot, covering more than 70 percent of the time. Watch Saturday's and Sunday's playoff games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream Chargers-Patriots and all the CBS games on CBS All Access. Can the 2019 divisional dogs live up to the hype? I think so, and I believe several of them can even win outright. Colts (+5.5) at Chiefs Sat. Jan. 12, 4:35 p.m. ET (NBC) The Colts simply aren't a good matchup for the Chiefs. Look at the final five games of the Chiefs season: two wins against the Raiders, a near loss at home to the Ravens, a loss at home to the Chargers and a loss on the road to Seattle. The non-Raiders teams are all offenses that like to run the ball and chew up clock with methodical drives. That's exactly what the Colts will want to do, featuring Marlon Mack running through holes created by Quenton Nelson. Andrew Luck has plenty of playoff experience, while Patrick Mahomes will be making his first playoff start. Mahomes is the MVP, but he's looked shaky at the start in some primetime games this year. I think Andy Reid will create plenty of easy throws against a defense that can't slow down the Chiefs all day, but I also believe the Colts could get a lead early in this one, hold it for a chunk of the game and/or storm in the backdoor if the Chiefs come out hot. The playoffs are a different animal, man. If you like the Colts and want to bet on them, consider waiting on it -- the line moved up from five to six pretty early on, and it could approach a touchdown. If you like the over (I don't? ), take it now because it's climbing as well. Prediction: Chiefs 28, Colts 24 What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the NFL's divisional round? And which top Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years. Cowboys (+7) at Rams Sat., Jan. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX) This was a really surprising line to me. Dallas is playing great football and the Rams didn't blow out any good teams down the stretch. In fact, the Rams didn't really blow out any good teams period. They were favored by a touchdown or more in 12 games this year and covered six of those. The only team they beat by more than seven that finished above .500 was the Chargers; the other five games were against the Lions, 49ers and Cardinals. The Rams like to run the ball and Dallas excels at stopping the run (fifth in DVOA). The Rams aren't great at stopping the run (28th in DVOA), and the Cowboys love to run. Los Angeles' passing offense hit a speedbump when Cooper Kupp went down. Sean McVay with two weeks to prepare is kind of a new thing, but it's definitely scary: he has two wins, both on the road, following a bye as a head coach and the Rams won those games by a combined score of 81-33. Those games were against the Lions this year and Giants last year, so grain of salt, but the scores are eye-popping. The Rams only playoff game under McVay was a stunning 26-13 loss to the Falcons last year. The biggest thing that scares me is Wade Phillips wanting revenge against Jason Garrett and the Cowboys, but ultimately this line is just too big for a Cowboys team that has morphed into a dangerous team since Amari Cooper arrived. Prediction: Cowboys 21, Rams 18 Listen to Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough break down Wild Card Weekend and look ahead to the divisional round on the Pick Six Podcast: Chargers (+4.5) at Patriots Sun., Jan. 13, 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Head, meet heart. My head looks at this game and sees a ton of value with the Patriots as a home team laying the shortest number of any team during the entire weekend. The Patriots! They're 6-1 against the spread in their last seven divisional-round games. All of those came at home, because the Patriots have the bye every year. Tom Brady is 7-0 all time against Philip Rivers, including twice in the playoffs, although it's been a decade since the two matched up in the postseason (January 2008). So that's where my head is at. But my heart sees this game and believes Rivers is somehow comfortable in this setting. Of the possible draws for the Patriots in this field, I think the Chargers are the worst matchup. They play great defense, can be versatile with how they use defenders (seven DBs on the field for 90 plus percent of their snaps against the Ravens! ), and have stud pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. They can beat you passing or running the ball and Rivers isn't some young quarterback Belichick can just fool. Rivers wants redemption for his record against the Pats and two brutal losses in the postseason to them -- in January 2007 the Chargers lost in the worst possible way (the Pats rallied from an eight-point deficit in the final 8:35); the following year, Rivers nearly toppled an undefeated Pats team despite having a torn ACL. We'll remember Gus Bradley's Jaguars getting blown out 51-17 by the Patriots, but let's not forget Bradley's Seahawks defense beating New England in 2012. Here's an interesting trend for the Patriots in divisional-round games: after seeing the total go under in every game from 2001-2007 (six games) the Patriots have seen the total go over in every single one of their divisional round games since (eight consecutive games). This total (47) would be the third-lowest of all those games. The Patriots have averaged 35 points per game over that stretch. Prediction: Chargers 27, Patriots 24 Super Bowl LIII is Feb. 3; here are the TVs we'd watch it on. Sun. Jan. 13, 4:40 p.m. ET (FOX) If I'm being honest, the pick I like here is the over. The Saints have hosted five playoff games in New Orleans with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, and have hit the over in every single one of them.<doc-sep>The NFL conference championship final four has been set. In the divisional round of the playoffs the Rams, Saints, Chiefs and Patriots were all victorious and are one game closer to securing a spot in Super Bowl 53. The Rams beat out the Cowboys 30-22, behind a big performance from both C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley. The duo combined for 238 yards rushing yards and the three Rams touchdowns of the game. The Saints held off the reining Super Bowl champions, the Eagles, to win 20-14. Two touchdown passes from Drew Brees and two interceptions from Marcus Lattimore sent the Saints marching to the conference championship game. New Orleans scored 20 unanswered points after Philadelphia took a 14-0 lead in to the second quarter. The Saints will host the Rams on Sunday in the NFC title game. SPORTING NEWS BEST OF 2018 Read our favorite stories from the year in sports The Chiefs were successful in shutting down the Colts to earn their first AFC title game appearance since 1994. The Chiefs were set on changing history from the opening kick off. Kansas City scored on their first three possessions and again before halftime, giving them a significant lead that they never lost. The Chiefs will host the AFC championship game on Sunday. The Patriots won big over the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-28, to earn a AFC title game appearance for the eighth straight season. Sony Michel carried the offense with three rushing touchdowns and 129 yards. New England finished the season 9-0 at home. If the playoffs are anything like the regular season, this year's title games will be exciting. Both contests are rematches of two of the most excited regular season matchups. The Rams beat the Saints last season in Los Angeles 26-20, and the Saints were determined to not let that happen again. In their Week 9 meeting, the Saints handed the 8-0 Rams their first loss of the season, 45-35. Drew Brees added to his MVP candidate resume that game, passing for 346 yards and four touchdowns. Nobody could forget when the Chiefs and Patriots met in Week 6. This was a quarterback showdown on primetime that featured two fourth quarter lead changes and a 75-yard Kansas City touchdown that tied the game up with just over three minutes to play. The Patriots edged out the 43-40 win with a 28-yard game-winning field goal. Here is the updated NFL playoff bracket and schedule: MORE: Watch the NFL playoffs live and on-demand on fuboTV (7-day free trial) (All times Eastern) NFL playoff bracket (SN Illustration) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/5b/95/nfl-playoff-bracket-011419-ftr_kdqvdvmhhxq1j7b4ax2jaicz.png?t=1326826144&w=500&quality=80 NFL wild-card round NFL divisional round NFL conference championships Super Bowl 53<doc-sep>Ryan Clark says that the difference for the Chargers is going to be Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram's ability to close the pocket on Tom Brady. (1:06) With the conclusion of the wild-card games, the playoff field was reduced to eight teams. The Super Bowl is just two wins away! Let's reset the field, breaking down the divisional weekend games with early projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Jump to a matchup: IND-KC | LAC-NE PHI-NO | DAL-LAR AFC Saturday, Jan. 12 | 4:35 p.m. ET | NBC | Arrowhead Stadium | Tickets Early FPI projection: Kansas City, 71.7 percent Colts' best chance to win: Run the ball the way they did in their wild-card win over the Houston Texans. Houston was the third-best run defense in the league in the regular season, allowing an average of 82.7 rushing yards per game, but the Colts ran for 200 yards in their 21-7 victory Saturday. Kansas City was the 27th-best run defense in the league in the regular season, allowing an average of 132.1 rushing yards per game. If Marlon Mack, who had a franchise-record 148 yards against Houston, and the Colts' line can run the ball the way they did in the wild-card round, they might be able to control the game and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands. FPI chances to make the Super Bowl Saints 49.8 percent Chiefs 46.9 percent Rams 35.7 percent Patriots 26.3 percent Chargers 16.3 percent Colts 10.5 percent Cowboys 8.6 percent Eagles 5.9 percent Chiefs' best chance to win: Honestly, there are all kinds of possible answers here: Find a way to get pressure on Andrew Luck, stay away from the kinds of costly defensive penalties that have hurt them all season, protect Mahomes and let him do his thing. But the most important part of this game for the Chiefs might be psychological. Andy Reid's past playoff failures (11-13 record in playoffs) are an unfortunate part of his otherwise sterling legacy, and the memory of last season's 18-point home collapse against the Titans is still fresh. The Chiefs have been the better team all season and need to play like it. Stat to know: The Colts allowed a league-low 18 sacks in the regular season (and none Saturday). But the Chiefs' defense tied for the league lead with 52 sacks in the regular season. Something's got to give, and the game could be decided by how that's resolved. Bottom line: The only quarterback who threw more touchdown passes this season than the Colts' Luck (39) was the Chiefs' Mahomes (50). Both of these teams are capable of explosive plays downfield, but with Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton battling an ankle injury, the Chiefs should be the more explosive team in this matchup. Indianapolis' impressive defensive front is going to have to play as well as it has all season to both confuse and contain Mahomes. No one has done that all season. Sunday, Jan. 13 | 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Gillette Stadium | Tickets Early FPI projection: New England, 62.1 percent Chargers' best chance to win: Generate pressure with their front four. The smart (though somewhat injury-driven) strategy Sunday by Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to use seven defensive backs against a run-heavy Baltimore Ravens team seemed to confuse and rattle quarterback Lamar Jackson. But the main reason it worked was the way the Chargers' defensive line was able to get to Jackson. Seven defensive backs isn't likely to work against the Patriots, but if Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram & Co. can move Tom Brady off his spot, that's historically the way to beat New England in the postseason. ESPN/NFL Next Gen Stats Patriots' best chance to win: A healthy Rob Gronkowski. The bye week is critical for teams, in part because it allows their banged-up and injured players extra time to heal. That might not be more important for anyone than it is for the Patriots' tight end (47 catches, 682 yards, three TDs), who hasn't looked like his dominant self for most of this season. The Chargers will be a legitimate challenge for New England on both sides of the ball, but a healthy Gronk is the kind of matchup-buster who can make a difference in a close game. Can he find that old Gronk magic in time for one more run? Early Vegas game lines From Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook AFC NFC Chiefs -6 Rams -7 Patriots -4.5 Saints -9 Stat to know: It has been six years since a road team won a playoff game in Foxborough, but the Chargers are 8-1 on the road this season, including wins at Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Denver and Baltimore (plus overseas in London). They travel well, and they don't mind the absence of home-field advantage. After all, they don't really get that at home. Bottom line: This has been one of the more under-the-radar Patriots teams in years. The story all season has been about their weaknesses, whether they're nearing the end, etc. Sure, the Chargers (12-4) actually had a better regular-season record than New England (11-5), yet here the Patriots are, coming off a bye and playing at home in January, as usual. The Chargers have what it takes, personnel-wise, to win this game. But as long as Bill Belichick is on the sideline and Brady is behind center, no one is going to feel comfortable in this matchup until the scoreboard says they've won. NFC Sunday, Jan. 13 | 4:40 p.m. ET | Fox | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | Tickets Early FPI projection: New Orleans, 77.4 percent Eagles' best chance to win: Keep converting third downs. The first 14 weeks of the season, the Eagles converted a middling 38.9 percent of their third downs. The final three weeks of the regular season, with Nick Foles starting in place of an injured Carson Wentz, they were fourth in the league, at 48.8 percent on third down. In Sunday's comeback victory in Chicago, the Eagles converted five of 12 third downs -- not spectacular but good enough against the league's best defense, especially when you convert a fourth-and-goal when down by five with a minute left in the game. Foles looks very comfortable in those situations. Saints' best chance to win: Get some pressure on Foles. He is 4-0 the past two postseasons, and he might just be unbeatable this time of year. But part of the reason Foles played so well the latter part of the season after Wentz got hurt was the performance of the Eagles' offensive line. It was an elite protection unit this time last year, and it has shown the ability to be that again. Cameron Jordan & Co. need to dictate some things up front, make Foles uncomfortable and try to force him into some mistakes. Stat to know: The Saints allowed an average of 84 rushing yards per game the final eight weeks of the season, the fifth-best figure in the league over that span. In that same time, they allowed an average of 3.66 yards per carry on first down. The Eagles were just 24th in the league this season in yards per carry on first down, with an average of 4.14. The Saints have a chance to put Foles in some third-and-long situations if the Eagles can't find some rushing success on the early downs. Bottom line: The Super Bowl champions are 9-1 the past two seasons in December, January and February games started by Foles. Last season, the Eagles made their run from the No. 1 seed, meaning they had a bye and a pair of home games before the Super Bowl. Beating the top-seeded Saints in New Orleans without the benefit of a bye is a different kind of challenge. But then again, so was beating the Bears' mighty defense on the road in Chicago, and they just did that. Saturday, Jan. 12 | 8:15 p.m. ET | Fox | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Tickets Early FPI projection: L.A. Rams, 76.0 percent Cowboys' best chance to win: Run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott.<doc-sep>
And then there were four. Following the divisional-weekend games, the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints are all just one win away from reaching Super Bowl LIII. Let's reset the field, breaking down the upcoming Rams-Saints and Patriots-Chiefs conference championship games with early projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Note: Both games will be Sunday, Jan. 20. 3:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Mercedes-Benz Superdome Early FPI projection: New Orleans, 62.1 percent Rams' best chance to win: Run the ball the way they did Saturday night against the Cowboys. In their 45-35 loss to the Saints in Week 9, the Rams had just 92 rushing yards on 19 carries. Part of the reason was the Saints built a 35-14 second-quarter lead and the Rams had to throw to get back into the game (which they did, by the way, tying it at 35-35 in the fourth quarter). But that just serves to underline the importance of establishing the run early and getting some control of the game. The Rams had a somewhat excessive 273 rushing yards on 48 carries in Saturday's playoff victory over the Cowboys. It is probably too much to expect a repeat of that, but keeping Drew Brees on the sideline by running the ball and controlling the clock is the way to go. FPI chances to win the Super Bowl Chiefs 33.8 percent Saints 33.1 percent Rams 18.1 percent Patriots 15.0 percent Saints' best chance to win: Keep Aaron Donald and the Rams' pass rush off Brees. Donald hit Brees four times in the first meeting, but no one else on the Rams hit him even once, and he was not sacked. (Neither quarterback was sacked in the game, actually.) Michael Thomas, the Saints' top wide receiver, had 211 yards and a touchdown on 12 catches in that game (he had 12 catches against the Eagles on Sunday). And while Aqib Talib wasn't playing in that game and is now back from his injury, Brees should be able to find openings in the Rams' secondary if the line can keep him clean. Stat to know: Counting the one he threw on his first pass Sunday, Brees has thrown only six interceptions all season, but he has thrown one in five of his past six games. Only two teams -- Chicago and Miami -- intercepted more passes in the regular season than the Rams. Bottom line: The conference championship games are rematches of two of the most exciting games of the season, and the reason this game is in New Orleans and not Los Angeles is the Saints won the first matchup against the Rams, as each team finished 13-3. Each team scored more than 500 points. Rams coach Sean McVay is the red-hot young offensive genius everyone is trying to copy, while Saints coach Sean Payton is the long-established offensive genius who'd just love to remind everyone he has been at this for a while. The result will either be Brees' second Super Bowl appearance or Jared Goff's first. 6:40 p.m. ET | CBS | Arrowhead Stadium Early FPI projection: Kansas City, 66.2 percent Patriots' best chance to win: Run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. As easy a time as Tom Brady had Sunday, a big reason the Patriots were so dominant was their Sony Michel-led running game, which helped bleed off the first quarter before Philip Rivers even took the field. New England had the fifth-most rushing yards and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the league this season. The Patriots averaged a time of possession of 32 minutes, 21 seconds in their wins and 28:17 in their losses. Against Mahomes, who had 50 touchdown passes this season, and a Chiefs running game that rolled up 180 yards in Saturday's home playoff victory over the Colts, it's vital the Patriots control the ball, the clock and the game with their offense. Early Vegas game lines From Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Spread O/U Saints -3.5 56.5 Chiefs -3 57.5 Chiefs' best chance to win: Well, based on Sunday, it's obviously not "load up on defensive backs, sit back in an insanely soft zone and let Brady pick you apart as if he's playing on a football-toss machine at Dave & Buster's." That didn't work too well for the Chargers. No, the Chiefs' best chance to win is to do what they did Saturday and play out of their minds on defense.