Taylor Swift and her "Big Reputation" wandered into the political arena on Sunday night after the pop-icon endorsed former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen for U.S. Senate. The question is, will it change any voters minds? On Instagram Swift said that she, "Cannot vote for someone who will not be willing to fight for dignity for all Americans," referring to Republican candidate Marsha Blackburn. Instead Swift said, "I will be voting for Phil Bredesen for Senate." The incredibly tight race between Bredesen and Blackburn has gained national attention in the last few months. Political analysts believe it will likely end up being one of the most expense races in state history. It's unclear though if an endorsement by a superstar like Swift might help or hurt Bredesen who is either tied or trailing in the polls. Officials with the Bredesen campaign on Monday said that the former Governor was "pleasantly surprised" by Swift's endorsement. "There's no evidence that celebrities change how people vote. In some sense it could have a backlash," says Vanderbilt University Political Science Professor Josh Clinton. "She decided to use her platform what she felt was the right thing to do," he added. Clinton, who follows state politics closely, believes voter turnout in the U.S. Senate race will be crucial in determining who wins. In 2014 voter turnout among youth was at a historic low, with some estimates showing only 20 percent of people under the age of 29 showing up to vote. In her Instagram endorsement, Swift also reminded her fans that the deadline to register to vote in Tennessee is October 9. "If you stay home politics is going to ignore you, the only way to make a difference is show up," Professor Clinton said. President Trump also reacted to Taylor Swift's post late Monday saying, "I'm sure Taylor Swift has nothing or doesn't know anything about her. Let's say that I like Taylor's music about 25 percent less now." Both Blackburn and Bredesen are scheduled to debate one another in Knoxville on Wednesday. Blackburn's campaign did not respond to a request to comment on this story.<doc-sep>While endorsing Bredesen, Swift strongly rebuked U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a Republican whose stances on equal pay for women, the Violence Against Women Act and gay marriage Swift said she adamantly opposes. According to the Tennessean, a poll released on Sunday shows Blackburn gaining an 8-point lead (50-42) over her opponent in the wake of the recent rancorous national debate over the controversial confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh; the lead is the largest any public poll has reported since Blackburn won the state's Aug. 2 primary. Cooper's seat is considered to be safer. "To the extent that celebrities can make a difference, she is the type who can," Anthony Nownes, a professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, tells Billboard of the potential impact of Swift's endorsements. Nownes, the author of a series of studies on the impact of celebrity endorsements on elections, says there are three reasons Swift could make a difference: She has very high name recognition in her adopted home state, she's not been very divisive previously, and she's kept her political powder dry in the past, which could shield her from voter fatigue over the typical, predictable celeb endorsements. "Based on my research and that of a handful of others, yes, there are many things more important [than celebrity endorsements: party identification is most important, the economy, what people think of the candidates personally," he says. "But if it's within a few points, celebs have the power to be an important factor in determining who wins." Nownes points to a study he did in 2012 in which he divided students into several groups and asked them to evaluate parties and candidates on a 0-100 scale -- with one group receiving the information that the state's most popular athlete, former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, was supporting Republicans, while actress Jennifer Aniston was backing Democrats. "I found that people who were exposed to that information had slightly higher evaluations of the Republican Party, and it was the same with Democrats exposed to the Aniston information," he says. A follow-up study showed that, in general, there was some evidence that celebrity endorsements -- assuming the voter already liked the celeb -- can move the needle a bit in terms of how that voter views the party. While Nownes readily admits that a celebrity endorsement is way down the list of factors when it comes to how Americans vote, "in a close election they could tip the balance -- if the candidates are within 1, 2 or 3 percentage points." Vanderbilt University political science professor Josh Clinton specializes in election polling and, given the recent history of low voter turnout among millennials, he's not sure if celebrity endorsements like Swift's have the ability to change outcomes. "Typically people feel like celebrities are free to have their own opinion, but there's not much evidence that because of people like Swift [they will change their vote]," he tells Billboard, adding the caveat that given the wholly unpredictable nature of our national politics these days "anything is possible." But because Swift has played her political cards so close to the vest in the past, the adamant nature of her Instagram post might make some people go out and vote. "If she increases voter turnout and gets young people to vote, that's a really important thing," Clinton says -- noting that youth voting reached its lowest level in 20 years in 2014, even though at 31 percent of the population, millennials are the same cohort size as the Baby Boomers, with a huge potential impact on elections should they choose to vote. For now, the Blackburn/Bredesen race is too close to call, so a point or two either way could help both candidates. Clinton has already seen how the Swift endorsement could become a talking point in the election, with Bredesen tweeting out a thank you to the singer on Sunday night (Oct. 7), thanking her for her kind words and stamp of approval. The endorsement has also, predictably, elicited some harsh blowback from some Republicans criticizing the singer for speaking out. "If you haven’t heard, multimillionaire pop star Taylor Swift came down from her ivory tower to tell hardworking Tennesseans to vote for Phil Bredesen," Michael McAdams, regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a press release on Monday (Oct. 8). "Bredesen is making it about what's best for Tennessee... whereas Blackburn is making it about Trump and national issues," Clinton says of the contrast that is in keeping with a national divide between the parties in this election season. In which case, he also says the endorsement has the potential to serve as a tool for Blackburn, pointing to how the Republican candidate might be able to use Swift's stamp of approval as a way to galvanize her voting base against Bredesen, by using it as an example of "the Left Coast media and Hollywood elite" -- Swift has a home in New York -- trying to tell people in Tennessee how to vote. Nonetheless, Nownes says that one of the benefits of getting a thumbs-up from a typically sideline-hugging celeb like Swift is leveraging her higher visibility and potential impact over such perennially involved celebs such as George Clooney. Because voters are not used to hearing her voice as often, it could cut through some of the noise, especially among millennials and other youth voting blocs. "Could it be the difference between winning and losing? Probably not," he says. "But if it's close, it's not going to hurt, either. Because she's not someone widely hated, and the vast majority of the people have made their minds up, it might appeal to a few people who are still on the fence."<doc-sep>
Update 6:32 PM: President Trump has announced that he likes Taylor Swift’s music “about 25 percent less now, OK?” (He added that the pop star “doesn’t know anything about” Blackburn.) Original post below. *** Taylor Swift — who started her career in country music three years after the Dixie Chicks were driven off airwaves for taking a stand against the Iraq invasion — has always been careful not to talk politics. Until now, that is. In an Instagram post on Sunday, Swift disclosed that she would be voting in Tennessee in November for two Democrats: former governor-turned-Senate hopeful Phil Bredesen and Rep. Jim Cooper, whose district includes Nashville. “In the past I’ve been reluctant to publicly voice my political opinions, but due to several events in my life and in the world in the past two years, I feel very differently about that now,” Swift wrote. “I always have and always will cast my vote based on which candidate will protect and fight for the human rights I believe we all deserve in this country. I believe in the fight for LGBTQ rights, and that any form of discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender is WRONG. I believe that the systemic racism we still see in this country towards people of color is terrifying, sickening and prevalent.” But Swift didn’t just throw her weight behind Bredesen, she savaged his opponent, Marsha Blackburn, calling the Trump-endorsed congresswoman out for her votes against the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, Reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act and her support of homophobic policies. “She believes businesses have a right to refuse service to gay couples. She also believes they should not have the right to marry. These are not MY Tennessee values,” Swift wrote. High-profile Republicans — and anonymous white nationalists online — were bereft. The National Republican Senate Committee put out a statement Monday declaring “multimillionaire pop star Taylor Swift came down from her ivory tower to tell hardworking Tennesseans to vote for Phil Bredesen.” Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee tweeted dismissively, “So @taylorswift13 has every right to be political but it won’t impact election unless we allow 13 yr old girls to vote. Still with #MarshaBlackburn.” And conservative personality Candace Owens volunteered to campaign for Blackburn in Tennessee, writing that Swift was using “black people and minorities as pawns to brainwash people into doing their bidding.” Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, a conservative group best known for wearing adult diapers to protest liberal policies on college campuses, suggested on Fox News Monday morning that Swift didn’t believe what she wrote. “I don’t want to accuse her of this, but I don’t think she’s the only one who wrote that post on Instagram,” Kirk said. “She probably got some very bad information.” On the website 4chan, where a community of White nationalists have embraced Swift as an “Aryan queen” whose political silence was a tacit admission of racist sympathies, several users floated similar theories. “That looks so ghost written. Ever notice how every celebrity seems to be reciting the same exact script and even use the same wording,” one user wrote. Another added: “All PR nonsense, she just doesn’t want to be labeled a white nationalist. Probably got paid to say all this.” Users were nonetheless stricken by the development. “OUR GIRL no more,” one posted. “They took her from us and turned her into one of their brain dead zombies,” another wrote. Swift’s endorsement is not without commercial risk. According to an analysis by the New York Times, she is most popular in rural areas in the West and Midwest that tend to vote conservative, like Utah, Montana and Nevada, and only modestly popular in Tennessee. Maybe an endorsement of Nevada candidate Jacky Rosen is next?