Take a look at our expert's picks for this week's Honda Classic matchups in the new Golf Pick 'Em contest, located on the NBC Sports Predictor app. Golf Channel is launching a new game in 2019. Golf Pick 'Em asks users to choose between a number of head-to-head matchups each week, with another separate Sunday-only contest available focusing on the final round. Both contests can be found in the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is available for download. Here's a look at Will Gray's selections among the matchups offered for this week's Honda Classic, where Justin Thomas defends his title: Justin Thomas vs. Rickie Fowler In a matchup of the last two Honda champions, I'll take the guy that shot a 62 in his last competitive round. Thomas has been hit-or-miss at this event, mixing top-3 finishes with missed cuts, but I trust his recent form that includes a near-miss at Riviera and a strong close in Mexico. Fowler has four top-15s at PGA National since 2012 but missed the cut last year as defending champ. Brooks Koepka vs. Sergio Garcia Koepka is ranked behind only Thomas in this week's field, but his results in this event as a local resident are a little puzzling. Four trips have yet to yield a top-25 finish, and the reigning Player of the Year has gotten off to a slow start in 2019. That's why I'm siding with Garcia, one of the strongest iron players around who has consistently contended at this event (including a 2016 runner-up) and quietly finished T-6 last week in Mexico City. Adam Scott vs. Webb Simpson This might be the toughest choice among this week's matchups, pitting two players against each other who are each playing well. Simpson finished T-5 here last year and just ended a run of six straight top-20s, but I'm going to give a slight edge to Scott who won here in 2016. The Aussie has feasted on this event in recent years, racking up four straight top-15s, and that trend should continue this week. Gary Woodland vs. Cameron Smith Don't adjust your screen: Smith is, in fact, now listed ahead of Jordan Spieth in the world rankings. That's a testament to his quietly consistent play in recent months, including an Australian PGA triumph in December. But I'm not sure he can match the firepower this week of Woodland, who did everything but win at Kapalua and has followed that performance with two more top-10 finishes. Daniel Berger vs. Luke LIst We close with a matchup featuring the last two men to lose Honda playoffs: Berger was edged by Padraig Harrington in 2015, while Thomas beat List a year ago. Berger enters off a T-2 finish in Puerto Rico, but the fact that he played last week in Puerto Rico instead of Mexico is an indictment of his recent form. I'll go with List, who remains in search of his first PGA Tour win but who notched a pair of top-5 finishes earlier this season and tied for 15th two weeks ago at Riviera.<doc-sep>The West Coast Swing is over and that means the PGA Tour will head to Florida for this week’s Honda Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Justin Thomas (+500), Rickie Fowler (+1000) and Brooks Koepka (+1200) headline a relatively weak field at PGA National, considered one of the toughest courses on tour. Here are our golf experts’ favorite bets for this weekend: The Field vs. Thomas/Fowler/Koepka (-300) I’ll get to this one, but first, let’s review the last one: If you tailed my favorite bet at the WGC-Mexico Championship last week, you’re welcome for the sweat — and I hope you got paid the full amount. I picked Tiger Woods to finish top-10, with the caveat that we should live bet this even if he started slow. Well, he opened with an even-par 71 — and then went on to finish T-10. Can you believe some people wring their hands over betting football games? I mean, this one offered a full four days of heartburn. It was glorious. Anyway, let’s get to this week. I get it: We’re betting against the three tourney favorites here. It includes the last two champions of this event. The recent PGA Tour winners’ list reads like a who’s who of big-name players. And Thomas, especially, appears ready to win something by six shots very soon. Even so, I’m taking the field. I’m taking 141 guys against three. Despite the back-to-back run of elite-level winners at PGA National, this is a course where traditionally anything can happen. I’ve got the likes of Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith and a whole bunch of other solid players on my side. And frankly, while I can easily see JT successfully defending his title, Fowler and Koepka don’t scare me too much here, so this is basically a bet against Thomas. While the odds aren’t the typical longer price I usually like for a fave bet, putting up $300 to win $100 here feels pretty safe. Webb Simpson to Top 20 (Even) Simpson should be a good fit for PGA National with how good his approach game is. I wanted more than +2500 to win, but I think he’s better than 50/50 to finish inside the top 20. He was fifth here last year and had six straight top 20s this year before having that streak snapped in Mexico last week. I think he’ll get back in form this week. Sergio Garcia (+100) over Gary Woodland In golf head-to-head matchups, I prefer to take the approach of fading players I think are overvalued than trying to buy the best in the field. I think Woodland qualifies this week. He has mixed results at this course historically: Since 2013, he’s placed 68th, 61st, 2nd and 49th. That boom-or-bust nature defines Woodland, who admittedly has been way more boom than bust of late. I’m just worried about course fit: This is one of the hardest tracks on tour, with water lurking on nearly every hole. As a result, by far the most predictive metrics historically have been bogey avoidance — both long-term and short-term. Woodland struggles in that area more than any of the other studs, so I’ll be fading him this week in favor of more stable hole-to-hole players. Getting plus odds is nice, too, as I’d have Sergio favored personally. Dylan Frittelli (+100) over Sung-Jae Im The Honda Classic tees off at PGA National on Thursday (Feb. 28, 6:45 a.m. ET). Last week there were several head-to-head matchups I liked, but this week there’s really one matchup that catches my eye: Dylan Frittelli vs. Sung-jae Im. Im is on Josh Perry’s card this week: He’s off to a strong start in his rookie year. He’s finished in the top 15 four times and has gained strokes with the approach in seven of the last 10 events. Justin Bailey likes Im as a daily fantasy play: Sung-jae Im ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) has missed the cut in two of his past four events due to his cold putter, averaging over 30 PPR at both Genesis and Pebble Beach — although it’s also worth noting that Genesis and Pebble had rather poor conditions. Despite the missed cuts, he managed to keep his bogeys to a minimum, averaging just 6.8 per tournament over the past five weeks. But the FantasyLabs PGA Models point to Frittelli. Over the past 75 weeks, Frittelli has the superior numbers in a few important metrics. Adjusted round score: 69.9 vs. 70.2 69.9 vs. 70.2 Driving distance: 302.7 vs. 294.0 302.7 vs. 294.0 Field strength: 83.5% vs. 65.8% Additionally, Frittelli has the slightly higher DraftKings salary ($7,400 vs. $7,300). Because of how correlated DraftKings pricing is with odds to win, I’d be tempted to bet any underdog at plus money if he had the higher DFS salary. I wouldn’t bet on Frittelli any lower than +100, because I think his odds of finishing ahead of Im are just slightly better than 50%. But of the two, I definitely prefer Frittelli. Webb Simpson over Daniel Berger (-155) Simpson’s 68.3 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is superior to Berger’s 69.2 by 0.9 strokes. And, after backtesting every metric in the FantasyLabs Trends tool, bogey avoidance stood out as one of the most important stats this week, and Simpson is an elite bogey avoider, sporting a 63.6% scrambling rate and averaging just 7.7 bogeys per tournament. Meanwhile, Berger is averaging 8.9 bogeys per tournament, and he struggles on par 4s, averaging +0.8 adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks. His par-4 metrics pale in comparison to Simpson’s -2.0 adjusted strokes, a mark that trails only Justin Thomas in this field. Additionally, Simpson is a cut-making and top-25 machine, making the cut in 91% of his starts over the past 12 months and finishing in the top 25 in 73% of those starts in the timeframe. Berger checks in at 71% of cuts made and 35% top-25 rate, respectively. I wouldn’t bet this past -165. Adam Scott (+120) over Gary Woodland Scott getting this price against Woodland, who I know is playing great, is a good price. This matchup is basically a coin flip according to my numbers so I’m taking the value with Scott. Sung-Jae Im -1.5 over Dylan Frittelli (+115) I disagree with Freedman on this one. I’m going back to the bank with Sung-Jae Im. I think Im ran out of gas a little bit after he played five weeks in a row and after a week off he should be refreshed and ready to go here.<doc-sep>When presented with good news and bad news, and you're given the option to choose which you want to field first, always start with the bad news. That leaves the good news as the built-in beginning toward a resolution or decision. If this is the only thing you'll ever glean from my advice and encouragement, you're welcome. The Honda Classic is fraught with bad news – 18 holes of it. PGA National's Champion Course isn't a picnic. It's an unpalatable challenge you'd see on a reality show resulting in one survivor. Fortunately, that's the bad news. The flipside is that selecting your gamer for the tournament can boil down to three choices, and they just happen to be the last three champions of the tournament. Despite conventional wisdom, it usually doesn't work out this way, but Adam Scott (2016), Rickie Fowler (2017) and Justin Thomas (2018) lead the parade. Conveniently, The Honda Classic lines up as the top spot for only one of the 23 golfers included in Future Possibilities below. Great, Scott! For Fowler and JT, both are going to be on our radar almost every time they appear, but the defending champion's form at the moment is tighter – in the good way – and that's saying something given Fowler's success at getting over the hump at TPC Scottsdale just four weeks ago. If none are available or you're disinclined for whatever reason, give 2016 runner-up Sergio Garcia a chance. THE PLAYERS is in the hole, and he's often been the guinea pig for us in that tournament, but he's been, ahem, surging for months. What happened in Saudi Arabia was unfortunate and he's addressed it publicly. He's turned the page so, so should you. Everything since has aligned with his profile and trending. Daniel Berger, victim of a playoff at PGA National in 2015, rapidly has emerged as a weapon at a good time. He put together a strong weekend in Puerto Rico to finish T2, and that was on paspalum. We already know how much he loves himself bermudagrass on which he'll be rolling it this week. All other considerations are better for two-man gamers. From Lucas Glover or Michael Thompson to Scott Piercy or C.T. Pan, each is deserving. For various reasons, holster Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland and Webb Simpson.<doc-sep>
Dustin Johnson won last week's WGC-Mexico Championship at 21 under par. I can guarantee you that will not be the winning score at this week's tough Honda Classic at PGA National. This tournament has suffered a bit because of the new schedule (more on that below), but there are still plenty of big names -- including last year's defending champ -- making appearances. Let's take a look at this week's contest. Event information What: Honda Classic | When: Feb. 28 - Mar. 3 Where: PGA National -- Palm Beach Gardens, Florida Ranking the field (odds) Justin Thomas (5-1): The defending champ coming off his fourth top 10 in five starts and a course-record 62 at the WGC-Mexico Championship? Sure. Rickie Fowler (10-1): Won this event in 2017, and no Johnny Miller breathing down his neck this year! Adam Scott (14-1): Why do I trust Adam Scott over a 5-foot putt more than I trust Tiger Woods right now? (Update: Confirmation bias going on here. Scott is 214th on the PGA Tour on putts from 4 to 8 feet. Tiger is T96). Sergio Garcia (16-1): He was pretty awesome last week in his second PGA Tour event of the season, and he finished second here to Scott a few years ago. Kind of a sneaky good pick at that number. Brooks Koepka (12-1): Interesting note by Rob Bolton here: Koepka doesn't have a top 25 at this course in four tries. Still, if he's in the field, he's probably in my top five or 10. Gary Woodland (18-1): T2 behind Fowler two years ago, and has arguably been playing the best golf of anyone in this field not named Thomas. Cameron Smith (25-1): He's in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained with guys like Justin Rose, Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods. Preposterous ball-striker. Alex Noren (40-1): Perfect for PGA National. He strikes the crap out of it, and finished one shot out of a playoff last season. No full field top 10s since winning the French Open last summer, though. Billy Horschel (33-1): Two top 10s here in the last three seasons, and had a top 10 at Torrey a few weeks ago. Michael Thompson (50-1): A buddy brought him up as a one and done, and I almost spit out my coffee. But it's a good take! Thompson won in 2013 and has four straight top-15 finishes (including Riviera!) Field strength -- B-: It's certainly not great! Only six of the top 25 in the world are playing this week, which, as Golfweek pointed out, is only half as many as last year. It's still interesting because of the Fowler-Thomas-Koepka trio (not to mention the Adam Scott resurgence), but it's not what it was when Tiger Woods was trying to run down Rory McIlroy in 2012. Three things to know 1. J.T. 's history: Thomas is trying to join Jack Nicklaus as just the second back-to-back champion here and first since it moved away from Inverrary in 1984 (or longer than I've been alive). 2. Bear Trap numbers: I know it's overplayed and tiring, but the three-hole close on Nos. 15-17 at PGA National really is insane. Two of those holes were among the 10 hardest on the PGA Tour last season, and No. 17 ranked as the toughest non-major championship hole all year (+0.533 strokes over par). No lead is safe going to the end, and that's part of what makes this event great. 3. Adam Scott's Masters odds: The Australian has been playing some terrific golf but is still 35-1 to win the Masters in April. Does he contend again this week and see that number drop to where it should be (around 25-1)? I don't really know why I'm so interested in this story, but he's been one of my top storylines through the first two months of the new year. Story I'm following Two-time heart transplant recipient Erik Compton, who has dropped to No. 697 in the world and hasn't competed in a PGA Tour event since 2016, Monday qualified into the tournament. He finished T4 here in 2013. Tiger watch Woods is taking this week off, even though he lives close by. He's is resting up for the next two events as he'll play the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship in consecutive weeks. This follows a two-week stretch where he played the Genesis Open and WGC-Mexico Championship.