Middle East expert Chris Mesorele warned a full blown conflict between Iran and Israel is imminent top stories direct to your inbox SUBSCRIBE Invalid email Sign up to receive our rundown of the day'sdirect to your inbox When you subscribe we will use the information you provide to send you these newsletters. Sometimes they'll include recommendations for other related newsletters or services we offer. Our Privacy Notice explains more about how we use your data, and your rights. You can unsubscribe at any time. On Tuesday, Iran informed the UN nuclear watchdog it will increase its nuclear enrichment capacity within the limits set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently on a three-day trip to Europe, with the aim of urging European signatories to dismiss the JCPOA, as he claims that Tehran’s threats to increase uranium enrichment showed the country still plans to destroy Israel. Chris Mesorele, Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution claimed Israel and Iran “were on a collision course even without the JCPOA falling apart”. He said: “Now that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear infrastructure, it’s difficult to see how conflict can be avoided. “Israel has made it clear that a nuclear Iran is not an option, and Iran is all but daring Israel to stop it.” Following Iran's statement it is increasing capacities on uranium enrichment, Israel’s Prime Minister said in a video on Twitter: “The day before yesterday Ayatollah Khamenei, the ruler of Iran, declared his intention to destroy the State of Israel. "Yesterday he explained how he would do this - with the unrestricted enrichment of uranium in order to produce an arsenal of nuclear bombs. "We are not surprised. Donald and Melania Trump greet Israeli Prime Minister and wife Tue, March 6, 2018 Donald and Melania Trump welcome Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara to the White House. Play slideshow EPA 1 of 18 The Israeli Prime Minister and his wife visit the White House "We will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons." According to the Iran deal, which was signed by the Obama administration, China, France, Germany, Russia and the UK in 2015, Tehran has promised to curb its nuclear advancements in exchange for lifted economic sanctions. However, US President Donald Trump decided to pull out of the deal, which he has previously described as "the worst ever agreed", last month, causing turmoil around the world. Mr Netanyahu welcomed Trump's decision and claimed Iran used its lifted sanctions to trick Europe, and built its financial reserves before beginning to develop its nuclear capabilities. Netanyahu receives standing ovation at opening of US embassy Mr Netanyahu welcomed Trump's decision and claimed Iran used its lifted sanctions to trick Europe<doc-sep>Relations between Israel and Iran are at breaking point. The multinational nuclear deal signed with Iran is on the verge of collapsing—partly thanks to Israeli lobbying against it. Iranian leaders have warned that if it fails, the country will resume its uranium enrichment program, a step Israel considers a threat to its very existence. Meanwhile, multiple Israeli strikes have sought to dislodge Iranian forces from Syria, where Tehran enjoys increasing influence. Israeli leaders are fighting hard to stop Iranian soldiers deploying along its northern border. Though it would appear that neither nation wants a full-scale war, the potential for miscalculation and escalation remains. Both nations have considerable military clout, and any prolonged confrontation between them would be bloody. Trending: Where is Kim Jong Un Staying in Singapore? U.S. Company Offers To Pay His Hotel During Summit with Trump RTS1IFO9 REUTERS/Ammar Awad Iran is a much larger country with a far higher population than Israel, but numbers alone do not dictate military capability—combat technology and experience are vital factors too. Technological capability is even more important in an era where technology is changing the way war is waged, allowing nations to hit each other harder, from further away and with less human involvement. A small nation with a population of just 8.5 million, Israel’s military punches significantly above its weight. Formed amid a war with seven Arab neighbors, the country’s short history is punctuated with conflicts fought for its survival. This tough history combines with a burgeoning technology sphere and close relations with powerful western nations to create one of the world’s most formidable fighting forces. According to Global Firepower, Israel has approximately 170,000 active personnel with a further 445,000 in reserve. Conscription exists for all non-Arab citizens of Israel over the age of 18, giving the country a large and well-trained pool of fighters to call up in the event of war. Story continues Though less sophisticated than Israel, the Iranian military is a force to be reckoned with. Its large population—around 82 million—enables Tehran to maintain a standing force of around 534,000 soldiers, with a further 400,000 in reserve, making it the largest force in the Middle East. Don't miss: Stormy Daniels’s Former Lawyer Was ‘Puppet’ for Trump and Tried to Get Her to Deny Affair on Fox News, Lawsuit Claims In a drawn-out engagement, national manpower becomes an important issue. Iranian available manpower is around 47 million compared with just 3 million for Israel. Of course, how important this is will depend on the nature of any war being fought. RTXYQI5 REUTERS/Hamid Forootan/ISNA/Handout In 2017, Israel spent $16.5 billion on its armed forces, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Iran was not far behind on $14.5 billion. Though this does not seem like a big gap, the fact that Israel is spending billions more than Iran on a smaller military indicates the gulf in the quality of equipment used. Israel fields more tanks than Iran—2,760 compared to 1,650. Israel wins this matchup on quality as well as quantity, the latest version of its Merkava tank being one of the best and most heavily defended in the world. Iran is mostly using second-rate tanks, though it has announced the development of the new Karrar platform, which it claims will be able to compete with top-class opponents. The Israeli air force is one of the best in the world, equipped and trained to the highest level. Its pilots are experienced too, having regularly conducted missions against targets in Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and even Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Its 250 or so fighters include a handful of Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II aircraft, one of just four fifth-generation fighter planes in the world. Israel will eventually have 50 F-35s. Most popular: Video: Chicago Police Handcuff 10-Year-Old After Call About Black Male With Gun By contrast, Iran fields around 160 fighter jets, none of which are as advanced as the F-35. Furthermore, its pilots are less well-trained and experienced than their Israeli counterparts. Neither nation is a significant maritime power. Iran has more than 30 submarines, five frigates, three corvettes and more than 200 patrol craft. Israel currently has five submarines, three corvettes, eight missile boats and 45 patrol boats. Considering the geography, the naval theater is unlikely to play any significant role in a potential conflict. RTX2UPSI REUTERS/Amir Cohen In the event of an all-out war, Israel holds the nuclear trump card. Notoriously secretive about its nuclear arsenal, the country is believed to possess between 75 and 400 warheads. The weapons can be delivered using Israel’s Jericho ballistic missiles, submarine-launched cruise missiles or even fighter planes. Iran has no nuclear capability. Even if talks break down, it will take many years before Tehran joins the nuclear club. Iran is working hard to improve its ballistic missile arsenal, already one of the most potent in the region and well-able to hit Israel. But Iran has other tricks up its sleeves. Financial and military support for anti-Israeli militant groups across the Middle East give it an unconventional way to hit its rival in the event of conflict. The Shiite Lebanese Hezbollah group, especially, is a worry for Israeli leaders. Hezbollah has a well-trained and well-equipped military, far more powerful than the Lebanese army and able to operate freely. Hezbollah's experience fighting alongside regime forces in Syria has given it vital combat exposure. The group maintains a huge rocket arsenal, and its weapons can hit anywhere in Israel. Iran also provides support to the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad groups in Gaza, which maintain smaller, but still significant, rocket capabilities. This article was first written by Newsweek More from Newsweek<doc-sep>NATO's secretary-general says the alliance wouldn't come to Israel's defence in case of attack by arch enemy Iran. Jens Stoltenberg told German magazine Der Spiegel in comments published on Saturday that Israel is a partner, but not a member of the alliance and that NATO's "security guarantee" doesn't apply to Israel. Stoltenberg says NATO is not involved in Middle East peace efforts or in conflicts in the region. He spoke at a time of rising Israel-Iran tensions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Europe on Monday to push his uncompromising stance on Iran to leaders eager to salvage the nuclear agreement after the United States withdrew from the accord. Netanyahu, a fierce opponent of the agreement and the Iranian regime, will meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Theresa May. Germany, France and the United Kingdom are three of the signatories of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between world powers and Iran, aimed at keeping Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The European leaders have been scrambling to preserve the landmark deal after slamming US President Donald Trump's May 8 decision to withdraw, a move praised as a major triumph by Netanyahu. The Israeli leader has brushed aside European insistence that the agreement is the best option to prevent Tehran acquiring the bomb, claiming that it brought Tehran closer to becoming a nuclear power. He also argues that a cash influx into Iran following the lifting of international sanctions as part of the accord has fuelled the expansion of Tehran's military influence in the region, especially in neighbouring Syria. Report by The New Arab.<doc-sep>cnxps.cmd.push(function () { cnxps({ playerId: '36af7c51-0caf-4741-9824-2c941fc6c17b' }).render('4c4d856e0e6f4e3d808bbc1715e132f6'); }); if(window.location.pathname.indexOf("656089") != -1){console.log("hedva connatix");document.getElementsByClassName("divConnatix")[0].style.display ="none";} In recent months, Israel bombed Iranian objectives inside Syria several times.Iran absorbed casualties, serious damage and international humiliation. Iran is eager for revenge, but what can it do? Does Iran want to go to war? Iran still remembers the trauma of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, which cost Iran dearly.Israel today has fewer people and resources than Iraq had in the 1980s, but Iran knows that Israel is a regional power with a formidable military.In the war against Iraq in the 1980s, hundreds of thousands of Iranians were killed. Iran does not want to repeat this grim experience. In the war in Syria, Iran lost about 2,100 troops, a sensitive issue in Iran.Many Iranians, including those who are against their regime, might separate between their loyalty to their homeland and their severe criticism of the regime. They could support the government, particularly if it seems to them that Iran was attacked and it must retaliate.Yet as long as the fight between Israel and Iran is contained to Syria, then the Iranian regime will have a problem in mobilizing its people against Israel.There is already opposition in Iran to their country’s ongoing involvement in Syria, where Iran has invested heavily since 2011 – about $20 billion. This money was taken from the Iranian people, who struggle to make ends meet. The more money Iran pours into Syria, the greater the chance that the Iranian people might not tolerate it anymore and confront their regime. The Iranian aid, aimed at saving their Syrian ally, Bashar Assad, might eventually be one of the reasons for the downfall of the Iranian regime. The Iranian-Israeli collision in Syria could turn out to be an Israeli trap, as part of the Israeli strategic goal: to weaken the Iranian regime, hopefully to topple it.Iran can hit Israel directly from Iran, with its SU-24, a long-range attack aircraft, but the aircraft might not have the range to reach and return from Israel, which is more than 800 kilometers west of Iran. If the SU-24 can land and refuel in Iraq or even closer to Israel, in Syria, it will be easier for Iran. Yet even then, some and maybe all the SU-24s might be intercepted by the Israeli air force (IAF), which has a very impressive reputation in this field and its forces, aircraft and air defense, are on high alert following the growing tension with Iran.Iran also has the Shahab-3, a long-range surface-to-surface missile that could hit Israel.Iran can’t launch hundreds of those missiles at the same time, which will enable the Israeli anti missile system, the Arrow, to intercept them. In spite of that, some Iranian missiles might penetrate. In addition, Israeli aircraft and Special Forces will try to destroy Iran’s bases from which Iran can fire its missiles.Iran might disperse and hide its launchers in its vast territory of more than 1.6 million square kilometers.Iran might try to pound military targets, since Israel attacked Iranian military objectives in Syria, but Iran might hit Israel’s population centers. In response Israel might not necessarily bomb Iranian cities, but rather strike key facilities that belong to Iran’s energy industry.The IAF might even strike Iran’s nuclear sites. It could be another Israeli trap, pushing Iran to attack Israel so the latter will have an opportunity to bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.The two states might be dragged into a war that will last weeks and maybe more, even if both sides are not interested in that. In such a case, there is a need of a broker, maybe Russia and/or the European Union, since they have ties with both Iran and Israel. Eventually a cease-fire, even if only an unofficial one, could be achieved, since Israel and Iran, like Israel and Hamas, don’t recognize each other. If Iran raises too many demands, Israel might escalate the war in order to convince Iran to end the fight.Iran might not seek to risk a war. Therefore Iran can try to limit its retribution and exploit its proxies, its favorite mode of action. It can also conduct terrorist attacks worldwide without taking responsibility and/or use its quite advanced cyber capability.The current stage is part of the long cold war between Israel and Iran, which started in 1979. Iran has several ways to strike its adversary, which in the worst case might lead to a war.The writer, a national security analyst, formerly worked for the Israeli military.<doc-sep>
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has embarked on a three-day trip to Europe, where he is rallying leaders against Iran's alleged threat. During a trip to France on Tuesday, Netanyahu warned that Tehran will soon use its uranium enrichment program to destroy Israel. The comments came after the head of Iran's atomic agency announced that the country would once again begin developing the infrastructure to build advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium in case the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, falls apart. "Israel and Iran were on a collision course even without the JCPOA following apart. Now that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear infrastructure, it's difficult to see how conflict can be avoided—Israel has made it clear that a nuclear Iran is not an option, and Iran is all but daring Israel to stop it," Chris Meserole, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, told Newsweek. The Obama administration, China, France, Germany, Russia and the U.K. signed a deal with Iran in 2015, but the administration of President Donald Trump recently decided to pull the U.S. out of the agreement. What's more, it is unclear whether the U.S. decision to impose sanctions on Iran, which were lifted after Tehran put curbs on its uranium enrichment program, will kill the deal entirely. After his visit to Berlin, Netanyahu arrived Tuesday in France to meet P. Macron and discuss Iran and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. #F24Debate with @markowenf24 asks whether Netanyahu will succeed in persuading the EU to form a common front against Iran. #Israel #Iran pic.twitter.com/TYpKWOktVd — The Debate – France 24 (@F24Debate) June 5, 2018 Some European Union members, such as France's President Emmanuel Macron, have said they plan to ensure that the deal survives. Still, the threat of U.S. sanctions has put pressure on European countries working with Iran. So far, international inspectors say that Iran has not violated its end of the agreement, but the country is warning that it will stop abiding by the terms of the deal if the international community doesn't offer an alternative. With this in mind, Netanyahu—a staunch opponent of Iran and the nuclear deal—is currently visiting Europe to gin up support to eliminate the agreement. Netanyahu claims Iran is an existential threat, and he is pressuring European allies like France and Germany to get tough on the country. Speaking at a joint news conference with Macron on Tuesday, Netanyahu called Tehran "the greatest threat in the world." Just yesterday, Iran’s leader said again that Israel is a cancer that has to be and will be eradicated. It’s amazing that in the 21st century, somebody talks about destroying Israel. It means destroying another six million plus Jews. This is what we face. — Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) June 4, 2018 Nevertheless, some experts argued that a war between Iran and Israel is not imminent. "What's going on now is that there is a propaganda campaign. Iran is trying to pressure the Europeans to come up with a compensation for the U.S. pulling out. So far they have done nothing that violates the agreement. As for Netanyahu, he has been beating this drum for over 20 years. So we're still in a messaging and propaganda phase. But if in a month or two all European countries have pulled out of Iran and aren't buying Iranian oil, then they might re-start the nuclear program," Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran program at the Atlantic Council, told Newsweek. "Netanyahu enjoys having Iran as a foil. He is also controversial at home and an endangered politician, so it's always useful to have an external enemy. He wants to put the blame on Iran, but the blame is on the United States and those who pressured the U.S. to pull out of the deal," Slavin added. Meanwhile, Israel has spent the last several months launching strikes against Iranian militias stationed in Syria. Russia, who is helping prop up the Syrian government, has reportedly reached a deal with Israel that would see Iranian troops removed from the southern part of Syria that borders Israel. Nevertheless, Iran has said that it is unwilling to move the militias. In this tense atmosphere, Macron argued that the Iran nuclear deal is more important to maintain than ever because it could prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Some experts said Iran's nuclear program could be up and running again within a year if it starts redeveloping its nuclear program.