Week 8 has arrived and I am back in the saddle with Daily Fantasy Football (DFS) core and value picks. Thanks to fellow AthlonSports.com fantasy contributor Sarah Lewis for filling in for me last week and I hope you all saw success! Along those lines, she hit on two of her three value plays as Baker Mayfield and Tarik Cohen did very well (not so much for Taylor Gabriel unfortunately). Among her core, Adam Thielen and Zach Ertz were both awesome once again while Jared Goff was handcuffed by his own teammate (Todd Gurley). T.J. Yeldon was solid but not spectacular and Julian Edelman at least found the end zone to salvage an otherwise underwhelming performance. As for Week 8, we have another high-scoring week projected with six games over 50 and one very close at 49.5. Fantasy scoring and stacking options are here in full force. Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams — 56.5 Denver at Kansas City — 54.5 Tampa Bay at Cincinnati — 53.5 New Orleans at Minnesota — 53 Cleveland at Pittsburgh — 51 Indianapolis at Oakland — 50 Seattle at Detroit — 49.5 (Favored teams in bold) So let’s get into my Week 8 DFS Picks, shall we? If this is one of your first times playing DFS feel free to check out my "10 Tips to Win at DFS." As always any questions, arguments, or glowing praise can be sent to me via Twitter @fantsychillpony. Teams on bye: Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Week 8 Core Plays These will be my top plays for the Sunday-Monday slate of games. These are players who I will try to have in as many lineups as possible. If I can, I will use three or all four in one lineup. A reminder that for cash games going with an elite quarterback is typically recommended. If you go value at quarterback he MUST meet value for your loaded lineup to be worth it. QB: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay at Cincinnati ($7,800 FanDuel/$6,000 DraftKings) Winston is in a fabulous matchup. We will see if he can repeat his last two weeks of fantasy production although it has come in dramatically different fashion. Winston didn’t have a TD pass in Week 7, but he finished with 365 yards through the air and ran one in for a score. The Bengals' secondary has been one of the worst in the league and Winston, Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson should be set for a solid week. Winston has been averaging 30.9 DraftKings points over the past two weeks so sign me up. RB: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City vs. Denver ($8,100 FanDuel/$7,100 DraftKings) Hunt has been crushing defenses the past three weeks, and now he gets the wonderful opportunity to face the Broncos at home. The Broncos are second to last in the NFL against the run (148.1 ypg) and Hunt is coming off a monster game against the Bengals where he had 141 total yards and three TDs. Hunt is on fire right now and he comes at a fair enough price in this matchup. I won’t tell you what to do but you can fit him and Todd Gurley in your lineups this week. WR: Adam Thielen, Minnesota vs. New Orleans ($8,800 FanDuel/$8,700 DraftKings) Thielen is playing on Sunday night, so keep that in mind, but he's been the best fantasy wide receiver this season and should be in line for another strong performance. He's had at least 100 yards in every game this season and he's scored in four straight as well. The Saints are near the bottom in passing defense (293.7 ypg) and Thielen has quickly established himself as Kirk Cousins' favorite target. Based on volume alone (averaging 13 targets per game), Thielen is worth the investment. WR: Demaryius Thomas, Denver at Kansas City ($6,300 FanDuel/$4,900 DraftKings) Someone has to get some yardage in Denver, and the Broncos will likely be playing from behind this weekend. Thomas should see plenty of targets Sunday (unless he's traded), especially if Emmanuel Sanders is limited in any way. Thomas' price is low enough that even though he hasn't put up big numbers (one 100-yard game, two TDs thus far), he's worth the risk here. As impressive as the Chiefs have looked, the defense is second to last against the pass (316.6 ypg). If you want to build around Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt and Adam Thielen, you should be able to add Thomas to the mix. TE: Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona vs. San Francisco ($5,000 FanDuel/$3,000 DraftKings) Seals-Jones has a bruised forearm, but he's optimistic that he will be able to play Sunday. The Cardinals' offense has been putrid this season, so there isn’t much upside promise here, but there is the potential to meet value at least. If you play with the Sunday night game as part of the slate, New Orleans' Benjamin Watson is another cheap option. Value Plays of the Week Jameis Winston could also fit the bill as a value play or you can pay more for Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. RB: Chris Carson, Seattle at Detroit ($6,300 FanDuel/$3,100 DraftKings) Carson is in a definite time share and that will certainly hurt his fantasy ceiling. The Lions have been giving up some yardage and fantasy points to running backs this season so the hope here is Carson touches the ball 10 or more times, gets 50 yards and a touchdown. That certainly is possible this Sunday. WR: Martavis Bryant, Oakland vs. Indianapolis ($5,300 FanDuel/$3,700 DraftKings) Amari Cooper's departure leaves Jordy Nelson and Bryant as the Raiders' top wide receivers. So by default, Bryant should see more targets. He hasn’t looked good this season, but maybe that will change with more opportunities. At this price he fills a roster spot and won’t sting your budget too bad. — Written by Chris Meyers, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network and a member of the FSWA. Meyers' work appears on many other sites, including socalledfantasyexperts.com. Follow him on Twitter @FantsyChillpony.<doc-sep>For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 8 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. Dolphins at Texans (-7.5): After a 3-0 start, the Dolphins have lost three of four. Conversely, after an 0-3 start, the Texans have won four straight. Give me the hot team. Eagles (-3) at Jaguars: If you think the Eagles are a mess at the moment, the Jaguars have been outscored 90-28 in their last three games, none of which were competitive at all. Offensively, Jacksonville is 29th in the NFL with 16.6 points per game (they're ranked 27th offensively in DVOA), and their once-fearsome defense is "just" very good (7th in DVOA), as opposed the swarming, ball-hawking, quarterback-punishing unit it was a season ago. But beyond the numbers, the Jags seem to be crumbling, as Doug Marrone benched Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler, and then went back to Bortles after the initial switch predictably did not go well. Jags players were also reportedly fighting among each other after their latest loss to the Texans. I'm sure James meant "argument," not "agreement." The disturbance likely wasn't. "HEY I LIKE YOUR SHIRT!" "OH YEAH? ME TOO!" The Jaguars do have the advantage of playing in London every year, in that they know how to prepare for that trip. In fact, they have won three games in a row in London, and put up 30-plus points in each of those games. Playing in London will be much more difficult of a game for the Eagles, in my view, than playing in Jacksonville, where half the stadium would have likely be overrun by Eagles fans anyway. This game is very simple. The Jaguars are nearly as injury-riddled as the Eagles, as they are missing their starting LT (and then subsequently their backup LT), their starting RB (around whom they are trying to build), and their top two (maybe three) tight ends. They also have a quarterback who isn't good in the first place, and now isn't playing well (even for him), and has to have shaken confidence. Traveling to London to play a game cannot be easy for a team doing it for the first time, but it's time that the Eagles suck it up and put a tough W on the board. If they can't take care of business overseas against this team, they should probably forget about being buyers at the trade deadline. Broncos at Chiefs (-10): I'm not a big fan of giving up double-digit points in the NFL, but I'm surprised this line isn't higher. Browns at Steelers (-8): Ben Roethlisberger is 22-2-1 against the Browns. He's 10-0 against them in Pittsburgh. Is that oversimplifying it? Yeah, probably, but I'm not inclined to pick against it. Redskins at Giants (-1): What?!? I mean... Huh?!? How in the hell are the Giants favored over a 4-2 team? Yes, please, I'll take the Redskins and a point. Like, seriously? This is really the line? Seahawks at Lions (-3): After a horrendous start to this season, the Lions have looked much better, and even have a pair of home wins against the Patriots and Packers. It's interesting that the Lions were buyers nearing the trade deadline, as they dealt for Snacks Harrison. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have been better than expected as well. They've won three of four, and are coming off their bye. Buccaneers at Bengals (-4.5): After a red-hot starts to the season, the Bucs and Bengals sort of settled back into "We are who we thought they were" kinds of teams. I do think the Bengals have the better overall roster here. Jets at Bears (-7): I'm tempted to take the Jets (+7), but I just can't trust a rookie quarterback against the Bears' pass rush, even if they've given up 69 points the last two weeks. Ravens (-2) at Panthers: After having watched the Panthers closely the last two weeks, I've come away unimpressed with their roster, overall. Cam Newton is excellent, and severely underrated, in my view, but he is a one-man offense, and this is not the same imposing defense they once were. The Ravens lead the NFL with 27 sacks, and the Panthers have had trouble giving Newton adequate protection. I like this matchup for Baltimore. Colts (-3) at Raiders: The Raiders are in full-on sell mode, and everyone there seems to be miserable under Jon Gruden. I'll take the team that actually likes their coach, even if they aren't very good. 49ers at Cardinals (-1): The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL. They might be even worse than the Raiders. At least the Niners are somewhat competitive. Packers at Rams (-9.5): Uh oh. When Vegas starts favoring teams by almost double-digits over a team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, you know they may be a juggernaut. Saints at Vikings (-1): OK, so this is the third one-point road underdog I love this week. Am I being suckered here somehow? But seriously, the Saints are a far better team than Minny, and they're going to want revenge in the worst way against this team. Patriots (-14) at Bills: Tom Brady is 28-3 against the Bills for his career, and one of those losses was in a meaningless Week 17 game in which he stood on the sidelines for most of the game. Byes: Falcons, Cowboys, Titans, Chargers. • Picks against the spread: Redskins (+1), 49ers (+1), Saints (+1). • Eagles picks: 3-4 • 2018 season, straight up 61-45-2 (0.574) • 2018 season, ATS: 17-14-1 (.547) • 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678) • 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529) • 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644) • 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547) • 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637) • 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605) Follow Jimmy & PhillyVoice on Twitter: @JimmyKempski | @thePhillyVoice Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports Add Jimmy's RSS feed to your feed reader<doc-sep>Every Thursday, Kevin Cusick makes his predictions against the latest Las Vegas point spread, the way God intended … Saints at Vikings (-1): It’s the Minneapolis Miracle revisited, 287 days after Stefon Diggs’ catch-and-run-and-helmet-toss that beat New Orleans in the NFC playoff. Despite the Saints’ lust for payback, we’re guessing Sunday night’s end result will be the same, only now it will be 100-yard man Adam Thielen leaving Marcus Williams in the rear-view mirror. Pick: Vikings by 3 Packers at Rams (-9): Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers says he’s hoping to play without a brace on his injured left knee because he’s “more comfortable without it.” If you change the “it” to “her,” it’s pretty much what the Packers QB said last year when he put Olivia Munn on irrevocable waivers. Pick: Rams by 7 Ravens at Panthers (+2): Justin Tucker’s last-minute missed extra point, his first miss in 223 career tries, cost Baltimore dearly in its 24-23 loss to New Orleans last Sunday. In a related development, the kicker has been mum on reports he’s attending the Ravens’ Halloween party dressed as Gary Anderson. Pick: Panthers by 3 Broncos at Chiefs (-10): Denver backup QB Chad Kelly, the last pick in the last draft, was arrested Tuesday for trespassing in a suburban home, where he was found “mumbling incoherently” while dressed up like a cowboy. That’s why, on Wednesday, he went from Mr. Irrelevant to Mr. Turninyourplaybook. Pick: Chiefs by 14 Colts at Raiders (+3) Oakland quarterback Derek Carr is vehemently denying reports that he broke down in tears during the 1-5 Raiders’ Week 6 loss to the Seahawks in London. It’s more likely that the weeping that was heard was coming from the ghost of Al Davis, spinning in his grave. Pick: Colts by 4 49ers at Cardinals (-1): Star cornerback Patrick Peterson, a seven-time Pro Bowler, is asking for a trade, saying he wants out of Arizona “desperately.” Also “desperately” wanting out, everyone else in the 1-6 Cardinals’ locker room. Pick: 49ers by 7 Dolphins at Texans (-7½): Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, because of his collapsed lung, took a 12-hour bus ride to Jacksonville last week before the Texans’ victory in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, for this short-week trip to Texas, the Dolphins will be arriving in the tank. Pick: Texans by 14 Redskins at Giants (+1): New York coach Pat Shurmur raised eyebrows late Monday night by trying a two-point conversion instead of an extra point while trailing by eight. The former Vikings assistant declined to detail the math behind his decision, knowing it would make most Giants fans’ heads explode. Pick: Giants by 3 Eagles vs. Jaguars (+3): Angry teammates had to be separated in the Jacksonville locker room last Sunday after their third straight loss, games in which they’ve been outscored 57-0 in the first half. The intramural brawl is the only fight shown by Jaguars since September. Pick: Eagles by 8 Jets at Bears (-7): New York quarterback Sam Darnold was gone with the wind last Sunday, posting only a 34.4 rating in the 37-17 loss to the Vikings. Things could have been much worse for the Jets’ rookie … he could have been drafted by the Cardinals or Bills. Pick: Bears by 11 OTHER GAMES Buccaneers at Bengals (-4½): Pick: Bengals by 7 Seahawks at Lions (-3): Pick: Lions by 7 Browns at Steelers (-8½): Pick: Steelers by 14 Patriots at Bills (+14): Pick: Patriots by 20 BYES Falcons, Cowboys, Chargers, Titans RECORD Week 7 Straight up 9-5; vs. spread 5-8-1 Season Straight up 62-43-2; vs. spread 41-62-4 All-time (2003-18) Straight up 2638-1467-8 (.643); vs. spread 2006-1982-124 (.503) COMING THIS WEEKEND The Loop Fantasy Football Report for Week 8, online and in Sunday’s paper<doc-sep>
Players flying under the radar this week who might be able to help you win your fantasy game. Welcome to Week 8. The Falcons, Cowboys, Chargers and Titans are on bye, and there are a few players who are going to be out for Week 8 (or longer) due to injury. Bilal Powell (neck) is out for the year, and Albert Wilson (hip) probably is, as well. Sony Michel is dealing with a strained knee, Keke Coutee has a strained hamstring and LeSean McCoy is in the concussion protocol. To top it all off, it looks like Dalvin Cook is likely to sit through the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. In other words, more than a few owners are going to be scrambling to find a diamond in the rough for Week 8. A great way to identify a potential spot start is to leverage 4for4’s signature strength-of-schedule metric, adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA). Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. So if a defense has seen a murderer’s row of running backs, it will be reflected in the defense’s aFPA. As a ranker, I use this metric weekly when putting together our award-winning projections. Last week, I discussed Mitch Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning, Latavius Murray, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Royce Freeman, Sterling Shepard, David Njoku and C.J. Uzomah in this space. Let’s see if we can dig up a few more gems for Week 8. Baker Mayfield, Browns (at Steelers, 27th in QB aFPA) Mayfield is in the middle of a great stretch in his schedule. Last week, he scored 20.9 fantasy points against the Buccaneers and this week he’ll face the Steelers, ranked 27th in quarterback aFPA. They’ve allowed 229 yards and two touchdowns to Andy Dalton, 285 yards and a score to Matt Ryan, and 363 yards and a pair of scores to Joe Flacco. Raheem Mostert and Alfred Morris, 49ers (at Cardinals, 32nd in RB aFPA) Matt Breida only played five snaps before bowing out of Week 7 with an ankle re-injury. Mostert finished with 11 touches for 78 yards, while Morris saw nine carries for 25 yards. If Breida is out against the Cardinals, he’s going to miss a fantastic matchup against a defense that is last in the league in running back aFPA. With Breida out, Mostert is more likely to see the lion’s share of touches given his workload over the past couple of weeks. In Week 6 against the Packers, Mostert saw 12 touches (all carries), while Morris only got one carry, and it was called back due to penalty. Over the past two weeks, Mostert has out-touched Morris by a 23 to nine margin. Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings: Is Adam Thielen or Antonio Brown the WR1? Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, Raiders (vs. Colts, 25th in WR aFPA) After the trade that sent Amari Cooper to Dallas, the Raiders are left with Nelson and Bryant as their top two receivers. Prior to a six-yard clunker against Seattle, Nelson had three solid-to-great fantasy lines: 6-173-1, 5-48-1, and 4-43-1. Going forward, he should vie with Jared Cook for the lead in targets. Meanwhile, Bryant led the team in air yards in Oakland’s last three games, so he was already a big part of the game plan with Cooper in the fold. Danny Amendola, Dolphins (at Texans, 20th in WR aFPA) With Kenny Stills nursing a groin injury and Albert Wilson definitely out for Week 8, the Dolphins may roll with Amendola, Jakeem Grant and DeVante Parker at receiver, and thus far, Brock Osweiler has shown the best rapport with Amendola, who has been targeted on 23.7% of his throws. That’s more than twice as much as Osweiler has targeted Stills or Grant. Amendola has the best matchup in the Houston secondary, since he’ll square off with Tyrann Mathieu in the slot. Grant and Parker are decent dart throws in very deep leagues. Target and Snap Report: Kerryon Johnson Emerging as Lions' Bright New Star Ben Watson, Saints (at Vikings, 28th in TE aFPA) Covering tight ends is one of the Vikings’ weak spots, and despite a fairly disappointing start to the season, Watson caught six passes for 43 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 7. He has seen at least four targets in five of his six games this season. Click here for all of John's Week 8 Sneaky Starts.