Ontario Premier Doug Ford is warning that the federal government's carbon tax risks triggering a recession, but it's hard to find economists eager to back up his claim. Ford used a speech to Economic Club of Canada to predict that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon pricing plan will hurt the economy . "A carbon tax will be a total economic disaster," Ford told the estimated 1,000 paying guests at the lunchtime event in downtown Toronto on Monday. "There are already economic warning signs on the horizon," he said. "I'm here today to ring the warning bell that the risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real." Ford did not offer any details in the speech about how the carbon pricing scheme would lead to recession. He did not take questions from reporters afterward. Ontario Premier Doug Ford arrives on stage to speak at the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto on Monday. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press) Asked by CBC News for clarification, Ford's press secretary pointed to a study by the Conference Board of Canada that suggests a federally imposed carbon tax would shrink the nation's economy by $3 billion. While that sounds like a big number, it is only a fraction of a per cent of the country's $2.1 trillion GDP. "Our analysis suggests the economy will shrink marginally in response to the carbon tax," the authors said. "While the overall economic impact is small, the distribution is not equal across sectors, with some industries bearing notable costs." The report does not say that the carbon tax will cause a recession. Nor do other economists. In its most recent monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada lays out what it sees as the major risks to the economy in 2019. The looming carbon tax is not even mentioned as a factor. CBC News asked economists from four of Canada's big banks to weigh in on Ford's statement on Monday, but none agreed to comment. There is absolutely no evidence to support this claim. The 2 jurisdictions with the longest track record of #carbon pricing - BC and Quebec - are the strongest economic performers in Canada. #onpoli #cdnpoli https://t.co/EN7RS3QBhf —@CleanProsperity There's no evidence to substantiate Ford's claim, says Dale Beugin, executive director of Canada's Ecofiscal Commission. It's a group of economists specializing in economic and environmental policy, led by an advisory board that spans the political spectrum, including the former Reform Party leader Preston Manning. According to the Ecofiscal Commission's analysis, the likely economic impacts of carbon pricing will be modest. It forecasts the Canadian economy to grow slightly more slowly than it would have without a carbon tax but to remain "a very, very far step away from a recession," said Beugin. "That money being collected is not being burned, it is being sent back into the economy in different ways," Beugin said Monday in a phone interview with CBC News. He said the federal backstop model would keep the economy buoyant by sending carbon tax revenue back to households to be spent. He points to the experience of jurisdictions that have put carbon pricing in place. The British Columbia economy kept ticking along after a carbon tax was imposed in 2007 by the government of then-premier Gordon Campbell (who recently led Ford's financial commission of inquiry into Ontario's deficit). The cap-and- trade system did not tank Ontario's economy after Kathleen Wynne's Liberal government launched it in 2017. Various carbon pricing schemes did not harm the economies of Quebec, Alberta and California in recent years. In 2019, Canadians will make an important choice. Do they want @JustinTrudeau's carbon tax that will kill jobs and make everything more expensive? From the Ontarians and people across the country that I've spoken to, the answer is overwhelmingly no. pic.twitter.com/BDztxewIGv —@fordnation "Sweden is another example where we've seen a really high carbon price over time and the economy has continued to grow even as emissions have declined," said Beugin. Last week, a list of 45 senior economists from across the U.S. political spectrum published a statement in the Wall Street Journal endorsing a carbon tax, with all revenue given back to citizens. The list includes former White House economic advisers, treasury secretaries, Federal Reserve chairs and Nobel laureates. This will not likely be the last time you hear the phrase "carbon tax recession" from Ford. Two conservative strategists told CBC Toronto they expect the Ontario premier will continue to use this messaging in the coming months, as carbon pricing becomes a key issue in the federal election.<doc-sep>Open this photo in gallery Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks to the media during a press conference in downtown Toronto on Dec. 18, 2018. Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press Ontario Premier Doug Ford has fired another salvo at Ottawa’s climate-change plan by warning of a “carbon-tax recession,” a claim dismissed by both the federal government and economists. At a business luncheon in Toronto on Monday, Mr. Ford said Ontario doesn’t need a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, instead predicting that the levy “will be a total economic disaster, not only for our province but for our entire country. “I’m here today to ring the warning bell, that the risk of a carbon-tax recession is very, very real,” he told the Economic Club of Canada. “That’s why when I say I am prepared to fight the federal carbon tax with every tool at my disposal, I mean it.” Story continues below advertisement Mr. Ford went on to say that “you can be for a carbon tax or you can be for manufacturing jobs … But you can’t be for both.” A spokeswoman for federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna disputed Mr. Ford’s statement, saying a price on pollution is the most effective and least expensive way to cut emissions. “Doug Ford’s only plan is to make it free to pollute and hope for the best,” Sabrina Kim said. “It’s disappointing, but shouldn’t be surprising – conservative politicians have no plan to protect the environment, no plan to grow the economy and no plan for the future of our country. We have a different approach that is working for Canadians.” This is the latest turn in a continuing battle between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government and several provinces over the federal carbon tax. The tax will be imposed on consumers in April in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario – the provinces that have not signed on to the federal plan or come up with their own plan to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Saskatchewan and Ontario have launched court challenges of the federal plan. Economists say Mr. Ford’s claims that a carbon tax would cause a recession are unfounded. “There could well be a recession, but the carbon tax would have nothing to do with it,” said Nancy Olewiler, an economics professor and director of the school of public policy at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia. Prof. Olewiler said B.C.’s carbon tax, implemented in 2008, has never been associated with lower economic activity. She said Mr. Ford is “creating a crisis and scare-mongering.” Trever Tombe, an associate economics professor at the University of Calgary, said all climate action imposes a cost on households – but carbon taxes, on average, have the lowest. Story continues below advertisement “It’s completely baseless to say that the carbon tax would cause a recession,” he said. “That’s not to say a carbon tax doesn’t have economic cost. All policies to address emissions will subtract from overall economic growth.” Dale Beugin, executive director of Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission, a panel of economists that provides advice on environmental policies, said Mr. Ford should explain why he chose to use the term “recession.” “The evidence is pretty clear that we shouldn’t be expecting a carbon price to cause a recession, we should be expecting very small, modest impacts on the economy," he said. When asked if Mr. Ford has any experts to back up his claim, his office pointed to a 2018 report from the Conference Board of Canada that said a federal carbon tax could shrink Canada’s GDP by as much as $3-billion. The Progressive Conservative government scrapped Ontario’s cap-and-trade system after it was elected last spring, calling it a “cash grab” that did not help the environment. Under its new plan, released in November, Ontario will spend $400-million over four years on a fund called the Ontario Carbon Trust, designed to spur private investment in clean technologies and create performance standards for large emitters. Story continues below advertisement With a report from the Canadian Press<doc-sep>Premier Doug Ford ratcheted up his rhetoric on Ottawa's climate change plan Monday, warning that the federal government's carbon tax will plunge the country into recession. During a speech at the Economic Club of Canada, the Ontario premier said there are already warning signs of difficult economic times ahead and a carbon tax will kill jobs and hurt productivity. "I'm here today to ring the warning bell that the risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real," he said. The Progressive Conservative government scrapped Ontario's cap-and-trade system after it was elected last spring saying it was a "cash grab" that didn't help the environment and have since launched a legal challenge of the federal government's carbon pricing plan. Ford said Ontario does not need a carbon tax to help it reach its emission targets, pointing to his government's new climate change plan introduced late last year. "The risk of a carbon tax recession is very very real," says Ontario Premier @fordnation. He says, "there are already economic warning signs on the horizon." #cdnpoli #onpoli pic.twitter.com/jFjBVtIGxC —@PnPCBC Ford renewed his calls for the Trudeau government to abandon its plan to put a price on carbon. "A carbon tax will be a total economic disaster, not only for our province but for our entire country," he said. "There are already economic warning signs on the horizon." Federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Greenpeace Canada slammed Ford's remarks, saying the effects of climate change can't be ignored. "We need a government committed to supporting much-needed jobs building electric vehicles, installing solar panels and other climate solutions rather than trying to boost sales of gasoline," said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist for Greenpeace Canada. Watch Ontario environment minister Rod Phillips on Power & Politics<doc-sep>
TORONTO -- Premier Doug Ford ratcheted up his rhetoric on Ottawa's climate change plan Monday, warning that the carbon tax will plunge the country into recession -- a claim disputed by experts and the federal government. During a speech at the Economic Club of Canada, the Ontario premier said there were already warning signs of difficult economic times ahead and a carbon tax would kill jobs and hurt productivity. "I'm here today to ring the warning bell that the risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real," Ford said. The Progressive Conservative government scrapped Ontario's cap-and-trade system after it was elected last spring, calling it a "cash grab" that didn't help the environment, and have since launched a legal challenge of Ottawa's carbon pricing plan. The federal carbon tax, which goes into effect April 1, will affect Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and New Brunswick, which have not adopted their own carbon pricing plans. Ford said Ontario does not need a carbon tax to help it reach its emission targets, pointing to his government's new climate change plan introduced late last year. Under its plan, Ontario will use taxpayer dollars to spur private investment in clean technologies and create performance standards for large emitters. The province will spend $400 million over four years on a fund called the Ontario Carbon Trust, which aims to entice companies to invest in initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Ford renewed his calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government to abandon its plan to put a price on carbon. "A carbon tax will be a total economic disaster, not only for our province but for our entire country," he said. "There are already economic warning signs on the horizon." A spokeswoman for federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said the federal government's plan will cut emissions and grow the economy. "Doug Ford's only plan is to make it free to pollute and hope for the best," Sabrina Kim said in a statement. "It's disappointing, but shouldn't be surprising -- conservative politicians have no plan to protect the environment, no plan to grow the economy, and no plan for the future of our country." University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe said there is no "credible analysis" to support Ford's claim that the federal carbon tax will cause a recession. The introduction of the carbon price will slow economic growth, but not by enough to create such a profound impact on the country, he said. "Politicians are going to engage in hyperbole, that's what they're best at on all sides of the political spectrum," he said. "But there is no reason to believe that the federal carbon price would result in a recession." Dave Sawyer, an economist with the firm EnviroEconomics, also disputed Ford's statement. Economic projections based on the federal carbon price show it will only slow economic growth slightly, he said. "The modelling that has been done on the federal carbon price shows very small national impacts," he said. "It's in the order of .02 per cent when the economy is growing at two per cent a year." Green party Leader Mike Schreiner said it's "dangerous and disappointing" to see the premier mislead people when it comes to carbon pricing. "Although I was not a big fan of the Liberals' cap-and-trade plan, Ontario had its lowest unemployment rate in 18 years with pollution pricing in place," he said. Greenpeace Canada slammed Ford's remarks, saying the effects of climate change can't be ignored. "We need a government committed to supporting much-needed jobs building electric vehicles, installing solar panels and other climate solutions rather than trying to boost sales of gasoline," said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist for Greenpeace Canada.