Welcome to my picks column! Every week during the NFL season, I go through the weekly point spreads and make picks on those lines. If you’re familiar with point spreads, skip this paragraph. If you’re unfamiliar with point spreads, it’s effectively a set number that one team gets to help even the betting odds. Patriots vs. Browns in New England is an easy game to pick, but what if we give the Browns 13 points? That’s the idea of a point spread. Browns (+13) vs. Patriots means the Browns start the game ahead by 13 points. If we pick the Browns in this scenario, we only lose if the Patriots win by 14 or more. Sometimes you’ll see this same thing written as Patriots (-13) vs. Browns. It works the same way. The goal for the oddsmakers is to get equal action on both teams. Make sense? Cool. Welcome back, people already familiar with point spreads! We’ll be doing our picks while providing commentary and/or analysis for each game, and tracking our record all season to see how we did at the end of the year. We’ll use the consensus line from Vegas Insider. OK, to the picks! (HOME TEAM in all caps). PHILADELPHIA (-1) vs. Atlanta An underrated part of the Eagles’ Super Bowl run is the fact that it would’ve been cut short in the divisional round if Steve Sarkisian hadn’t put together perhaps the worst string of four play calls in NFL history. The Falcons were down five points and had first-and-goal from the Eagles’ 9-yard line with two timeouts and 1:19 left and they managed to gain 7 yards in four plays. Yikes. Pick: Eagles (-1) Pittsburgh (-4) vs. CLEVELAND Ben Roethlisberger has more wins in the Browns’ home stadium (11), than any other Browns quarterback since the team returned to the NFL in 1999 (10). That has nothing to do with this game, but it’s still totally bananas. Pick: Steelers (-4) MINNESOTA (-6.5) vs. San Francisco Jimmy Garoppolo has never lost a game as an NFL starter. Kirk Cousins has never won a season opener as an NFL starter. This used to say one of those things has to give, but that is the incorrect use of that phrase as pointed out by @aaronhimself on Twitter. Luckily the stat is still correct. So that’s fun. Pick: Vikings (-6.5) INDIANAPOLIS (-3) vs. Cincinnati Somehow Marvin Lewis is still coaching the Bengals. Pick: Bengals (+3) BALTIMORE (-7.5) vs. Buffalo This line opened with Baltimore favored by three points. Then Buffalo named Nathan Peterman as its starting quarterback and now we’re here with the Ravens favored by more than a touchdown. Poor Nathan Peterman. Pick: Ravens (-7.5) Jacksonville (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS Jalen Ramsey vs. Odell Beckham Jr. is the only thing that matters in this game. Forget the score and the rest of the players on the field. Give me a camera and microphones on those two. It will be the sass-fest to end all sass-fests and the postgame quotes will be sasstastic. *Z snaps* Pick: Jaguars (-3) NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay The NFC South is perpetually weird, but not even that will be able to overcome the fact Ryan Fitzpatrick is still starting NFL games. He went to Harvard, you know. Pick: Buccaneers (+9.5) NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs. Houston This is my game of the week. It’s a rematch of a really fun Week 3 bout that saw the Patriots emerge on top of a 36-33 final. If Deshaun Watson picks up where he left off last season and J.J. Watt stays healthy, this may very well be an AFC Championship Game preview. Pick: Texans (+6.5) Tennessee (-1.5) vs. MIAMI Miami unloaded its two best players while the Titans added a couple high-profile free agents and returned all their best players, and somehow Tennessee is only favored by 1.5 points. Pick: Titans (-1.5) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3.5) vs. Kansas City If the last couple years are any indication, the Chargers will play well in this game and wind up losing in some strange fashion as they work their way toward a 9-7 finish that feels like it could’ve been 11-5 or 12-4 if they had just squeaked out games like the home opener against Kansas City. The Chiefs might also be the most fun team in the league thanks to an explosive offense and a bad defense. Pick: Chargers (-3.5) DENVER (-3) vs. Seattle These are the top two vacation destinations for people who want to “just get away” but also don’t want to get too far away so they go to a major metropolitan area that just so happens to be a little chilly at night and also has lots of trees nearby. The first thought that just went through your head is correct, by the way. Pick: Broncos (-3) CAROLINA (-3) vs. Dallas Somehow Jason Garrett is still coaching the Cowboys. Pick: Panthers (-3) ARIZONA (-1) vs. Washington I imagine the feeling one gets while watching Sam Bradford and Alex Smith play against each other is the same feeling a judge on “Chopped” gets when they take a bite of meat that hasn’t been seasoned. Pick: Washington (+1) GREEN BAY (-7.5) vs. Chicago Last year after Aaron Rodgers got hurt, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy was asked if he’d bring in a veteran quarterback. McCarthy responded indignantly, “I’ve got three years invested in Brett Hundley, I’ve got great confidence in Brett Hundley. I’ve got two years invested in Joe Callahan. It’s a quarterback room that has structure and has a philosophy behind the development of it.” Neither Hundley nor Callahan is on the roster going into Week 1. Pick: Bears (+7.5) DETROIT (-6.5) vs. New York Jets Win or lose, Sam Darnold is already a top-three Jets quarterback of all time. Pick: Lions (-6.5) Los Angeles Rams (-4) vs. OAKLAND A good indicator of the different direction of these two franchises is that one of them locked up their top defensive player with a long-term deal. The other one shipped theirs out instead of paying him. Pick: Rams (-4)<doc-sep>We do that by first creating power rankings, which help determine how often one team should beat another based on its actual and projected win rates. That gives us win probabilities for every game, as well as an implied margin of victory — helpful for picking games against the spread. For example, in last year’s Week 1 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots, the Patriots were favored at home by nine points. However, our analytics suggested New England would beat Kansas City 71 percent of the time, implying a point spread of six points in favor of the Patriots. That made the choice an easy one, Chiefs plus-9, and they delivered a 42-27 victory.<doc-sep>With Tom Brady having turned 41 last month, the N.F.L. still has its face of the present, but it should be on the lookout for its face of the future. Could Deshaun Watson, the second-year quarterback for the Houston Texans, whom Brady and the New England Patriots just happen to be facing this week, be his successor? What about Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers, who last season got out from under Brady’s considerable shadow? There’s always Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles, though he has to make it back from a devastating knee injury first. [Follow our live coverage of N.F.L. Week 1] Khalil Mack of the Chicago Bears, Jalen Ramsey of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Odell Beckham Jr. of the Giants are probably wondering why the face of the N.F.L. needs to be a quarterback. Each has the talent and personality to make an argument for himself. [The N.F.L. Struggles to Tackle Its Latest Problem: Tackling] Week 1 brings a fresh start for everyone — even the Cleveland Browns. A look ahead to this week’s games shows several intriguing matchups. As it did last season, The New York Times will be picking games against the spread rather than simply picking winners. Top-Tier Games Texans at Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS At times last season, it seemed Deshaun Watson, the Texans’ rookie quarterback, could do anything he wanted on a football field. In a four-game stretch, he threw for 1,171 yards and 16 touchdowns while Houston’s offense averaged 40.5 points a game. It resulted in only a 2-2 record, but both losses were competitive, and the second one, a shootout against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, was easily one of the N.F.L.’s most entertaining games of the year.<doc-sep>Justin K. Aller/Getty Images When it comes to NFL odds, the same theories often apply to both teams and bettors themselves. With the Week 1 slate starting Thursday with an NFC powerhouse showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles, it's important for those teams to get off to a hot start—just like bettors. Those who want to dabble in NFL lines on a consistent basis have to hit the ground running and build a respectable bankroll, hopefully using the gains in Week 1 to ride a wave. There are plenty of holes to poke in lines during the first week of the season and capitalize on because while oddsmakers are oddsmakers for a reason, they're also starting the season anew and far from perfect. With such a theme in mind, the volatile Week 1 featuring everyone adjusting as developments unfold makes for some great early-week scenarios for bettors. Week 1 NFL Odds Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3) | O/U 45.5 Buffalo at Baltimore (-7) | O/U 40.5 Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3) | O/U 46.5 Houston at New England (-6) | O/U 50.5 Jacksonville (-3) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 43.5 Pittsburgh (-6) at Cleveland | O/U 45.5 San Francisco at Minnesota (-6) | O/U 46 Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5) | O/U 49.5 Tennessee (-1) at Miami | O/U 45 Kansas City at L.A. Chargers (-3) | O/U 47.5 Dallas at Carolina (-3) | O/U 42.5 Seattle at Denver (-3) | O/U 42 Washington at Arizona (E) | O/U 44 Chicago at Green Bay (-7.5) | O/U 47.5 N.Y. Jets at Detroit (-7) | O/U 44.5 L.A. Rams (-5) at Oakland | O/U 49.5 Pittsburgh (-6) at Cleveland Video Play Button OBJ's Trade to Cleveland Has the Browns Hyped Le'Veon's Power Move Pays Off After Signing Massive Deal with Jets Friends to Foes, Ex-UGA Teammates Meet in Super Bowl Cooks Gave a Super Gift to This Rams Employee Mahomes Loves Ketchup as Much as Torching Defenses Bears Hoping to Ride Club Dub to the Super Bowl The Worst Fantasy Football Punishments for Last Place NFL Players Bring Soccer Traditions to the NFL JuJu Is a Man of the People Bills Superfan 'Pancho Billa' Continues to Inspire Happy 26th Birthday to OBJ 🎉 Mahomes Is 'Showtime' Off the Field Too Thielen's Ride from Underdog to Record-Breaking WR Shanahan and His Son Carter Are Hyped for Carter V Browns Winning Off the Field with Community Service Conner's Journey from Beating Cancer to Starting RB Does Donovan McNabb Deserve Your 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame Vote? B/R Fantasy Expert Matt Camp Gives His Picks for Keep or Release After Week 2 Does Hines Ward Deserve Your 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame Vote? Shaquem Griffin Starting for Seahawks in Week 1 Right Arrow Icon While the theme of the intro is important to remember, there is another one to keep in mind—don't get cute. This one has plenty of cute factors so let's tick off these boxes quickly. Yes, the Cleveland Browns are likable after the Hard Knocks appearance. Yes, they should be better than past years, which isn't saying much. And yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers likely won't have Le'Veon Bell, who didn't show up for practice Monday: While those are fun talking points, none of them really matter. The Browns are going to come into this game looking rusty while they try to break in a new offense led by quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He's a quality player by all means, but quick-hitting plays to Jarvis Landry aren't going to keep pace with an explosive Pittsburgh offense (Josh Gordon won't start). These Steelers still have Ben Roethlisberger present despite Bell's possible absence, and he's still a guy who completed north of 64 percent of his passes last year with 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. His Antonio Brown-JuJu Smith-Schuster duo will be more than enough to negate a Myles Garrett-led pass rush if they can get the ball out quickly. Oddsmakers have this line down to six already due to a combination of the Bell and road factors for the Steelers. But we're still talking about one of the most lopsided affairs in sports considering Big Ben's 22-2 mark against the Browns. Six points is more than enough against a Browns team entering the season trying to figure things out on the offensive side of the ball. Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 10 Kansas City at L.A. Chargers (-3) Jamie Squire/Getty Images There is a similar theme here for an AFC West encounter between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. These Chiefs should be a very good team once the ball gets rolling—but that's going to take some time. Yes, the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10 and 30-13 a year ago before making an exit in their first postseason game. But that was years of Andy Reid and Alex Smith getting on the same page, resulting in a career year for the latter despite his time in the league. However, the job now falls to Patrick Mahomes, who has best-in-league potential but also struggled in his only game a year ago, throwing for 284 yards with an interception. Contrast that with the continuity of the Chargers and Philip Rivers, a guy who casually cruised to another 4,515 yards and 28 touchdowns a year ago while getting less than four yards per carry from his ground game. He's flanked by what might be the NFL's most underrated defense in large part thanks to the pass-rushing tandem of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, two pillars of a unit that drummed up 43 sacks a year ago and should only improve with the arrival of No. 17 overall pick and safety Derwin James. In Los Angeles, a player such as Mahomes with one real game under his belt could run into some problems. Oddsmakers clearly still think it will be close, but bettors should be comfortable rolling with an elite defense and a guy like Rivers, who knows all too well about his opponent. Prediction: Chargers 28, Chiefs 20 Seattle at Denver (-3) Patrick Smith/Getty Images A cross-conference battle in Week 1 is confusing for everyone.<doc-sep>
Jeff Haynes/Associated Press Meaningful NFL football is finally back in our lives, and Week 1 provides an exciting slate of games. Six of the 13 games Sunday feature a spread of three or fewer points, which means we should have a number of fun showdowns that could go down to the wire. Picking Week 1 games is always difficult because we're essentially still watching preseason football. The first unit gets so little action during the actual preseason that many teams are still ironing out some kinks in early September—just look at the Atlanta Falcons' red-zone struggles Thursday night as a prime example. So entering the first week of action, set your expectations accordingly and prepare to be surprised. The key to having a successful week is knowing which games have a wide range of potential outcomes and simply avoiding those matchups. With that in mind, here are selections for each games against the spread, followed by a breakdown of three of Week 1's most intriguing games. Buccaneers at Saints (-9.5) Video Play Button Videos you might like 49ers at Vikings (-6.5) Bills at Ravens (-7.5) Jaguars (-3) at Giants Texans at Patriots (-6) Titans (-1) at Dolphins Bengals at Colts (-2.5) Steelers (-4) at Browns Chiefs at Chargers (-3) Redskins at Cardinals (-1) Seahawks at Broncos (-3) Cowboys at Panthers (-3) Bears at Packers (-7) Jets at Lions (-6.5) Rams (-4.5) at Raiders Predicted winners against the spread are in bold. Spread information according to OddsShark. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) Jeff Haynes/Associated Press This is a large spread in the NFL, especially in a matchup between two divisional rivals. However, all the stars align for the New Orleans Saints, and it should lead to an easy double-digit win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be without quarterback Jameis Winston, who is serving a three-game suspension to start the season. That means the 35-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick will have the task of keeping pace with Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Unfortunately for Fitzpatrick, he will likely need to put a big number on the scoreboard for the Buccaneers to have a shot in this one. In 2017, the Bucs defense ranked dead last in points allowed on the road, giving up an average of 29.3 points per game in their eight road contests, which included a 30-10 loss in New Orleans. The key to this matchup could be whether the Buccaneers can establish their rushing attack of Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers. Tampa Bay ranked 27th in rushing offense in 2017 and was 2-11 when rushing for under 100 yards a season ago. Prediction: Saints 31, Buccaneers 17 Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3) Nick Wass/Associated Press Despite an inconsistent performance from C.J. Anderson a season ago, the Denver Broncos still finished with the league's 12th-ranked rushing offense. This year, Anderson has been replaced by rookie Royce Freeman, and it should lead to an even more potent rushing attack in Denver. With a balanced offense led by Freeman and new quarterback Case Keenum, the Broncos will be a challenge for the new-look Seattle Seahawks defense. The Seattle defense was vulnerable at times last season, allowing 30 or more points in five games, the most since Pete Carroll's first season at the helm in 2010. With sweeping personnel changes across the defensive depth chart, the Seahawks defense could suffer some growing pains this season as Carroll attempts to rebuild the once-dominant unit. Perhaps he will figure it out at some point this year, but it's tough to bet on them early in 2018, especially on the road. Prediction: Broncos 24, Seahawks 17 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7) Jack Dempsey/Associated Press With a healthy Aaron Rodgers back for the Packers, it would be easy to assume the Green Bay Packers will roll over the rebuilding Chicago Bears. However, this Bears offense has the potential to be one of the most improved units in league and should be able to score enough to keep this one interesting. Mitchell Trubisky would have been expected to make strides entering his sophomore campaign regardless of the talent around him, but the additions of receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller and tight end Trey Burton could allow him to improve by leaps and bounds. Last season, the Los Angeles Rams' Jared Goff made a substantial jump during his sophomore year, and Bears fans have reason to hope for similar results for Trubisky.