Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup against the Nittany Lions this Saturday in State College, Pennsylvania. 1. Penn State is ornery, talented, coming off a bye The timing couldn’t be worse for Michigan State to go into Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions have had two weeks to stew over their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State. They’ve had two weeks to get healthy, to prepare for an MSU program that crushed their playoff dreams a year ago in East Lansing. They’ve had two weeks to practice under the demand from coach James Franklin that they become an elite program, not just a great one. Meanwhile, the Spartans are shorthanded — to what degree is somewhat unclear — and now fully aware of their shortcomings on the offensive line. It doesn’t help MSU that Penn State is getting back redshirt sophomore defensive end Shane Simmons, a former five-star recruit who’s been out injured since training camp. Offensively, the Nittany Lions have eclipsed the 50-point mark three times already this season, averaging 510 yards of total offense. MSU has been in the 30s three times, averaging 389 yards per outing. It’s a difficult matchup for MSU in the best of circumstances. These aren’t those. 2. MSU’s plan to run the football 40 times The Spartans won’t get to 40 carries, nor did Mark Dantonio mean that they’ll fruitlessly try if it’s not working, when he said this week that 40 rushes per game remains the goal for this MSU program, even with an inept running game. But what should be worrisome for MSU’s player and fans about Dantonio’s statement is that unless he’s intentionally messing with Penn State, he signaled that he doesn’t plan to let Brian Lewerke wing it around, living with the consequences. That might be MSU's only chance — brilliance from Lewerke. If MSU wastes more than a couple possessions slamming into the line of scrimmage with its running backs, it’ll fall so far behind that the game plan won’t matter. 3. Can Brian Lewerke and Felton Davis be special? That’s what it’ll take for MSU to have a chance. Not Lewerke and Davis alone — the defense will have to play its best game, too. But the question remains, do Lewerke and Davis, as a QB-wideout tandem, have greatness in them? Or are they good players, on a decimated offense, forced beyond their abilities to try to carry a team? We don’t know for sure yet. Both have had moments when they look like NFL players, Davis especially. Neither has had a game that leaves you thinking, ‘Whoa, that guy is something.’ Again, that’s what it’ll take to win in Happy Valley. 4. MSU’s embattled offensive line I don’t think MSU’s offensive line group, this year, will ever be a force in the running game. Maybe against Rutgers. Not until then. But they need to get to where they were last year — sturdy in pass protection. They need to give QB Brian Lewerke and MSU’s passing game a fighting chance. Penn State is a young defense, but it has an effective pass rush, with 16 sacks through five games, led by defensive end Shareef Miller. As mentioned earlier, the Nittany Lions are also expected to have Shane Simmons back for as many as 15 plays on the other edge. There have been way too many “look out!” blocks to this point from MSU’s offensive line. For Lewerke and his receivers to lead a stunning upset, the fellas up front are going to have to be sound. 5. MSU’s run defense against Penn State’s running game Keeping Trace McSorley and the Nittany Lions’ passing game from going wild is a major key for an MSU defense that’s shown itself to be vulnerable against the pass. But MSU’s fortunes defensively begin with its greatest strength — its run defense holding up against a Penn State ground game averaging 6 yards per carry. MSU’s defense leads college football, allowing just 1.3 yards per rush. McSorley’s legs create problems. Against Ohio State, Penn State running back Mike Sanders was bottled up, rushing 16 times for 43 yards. But McSorley went for 175 yards. If the Spartans are nearly as staunch against the run as they’ve been and can make McSorley beat them through the air, they’ll have a chance. McSorley’s accuracy can be on point and it can also be erratic. If Penn State can run the football effectively, though, this will get ugly quickly. Prediction It’s hard to picture MSU pulling off this upset. The Spartans are too limited right now and Penn State is too good offensively. Frankly, it’s hard to see MSU even covering the 13 1/2 points Las Vegas is giving the Spartans as underdogs. MSU is a proud program, with decent player leadership and a roster that says its determined to take control of its season again. The good news for MSU is that a week from now, when Michigan visits, it’ll have another shot to change the narrative and vibe in a more favorable setting. Because this one could get rough in the second half. Make it: Penn State 38, MSU 13 RELATED: Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.<doc-sep>Penn State will look to bounce back on Homecoming weekend against a banged-up, yet always dangerous, Michigan State squad. (8)Penn State (4-1, 1-1) vs. Michigan State (3-2, 1-1) Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Beaver Stadium, State College, PA The Betting Line: Penn State -13.5 TV: BTN- Kevin Kugler (play-by-play), James Laurinaitis (analyst), Lisa Byington (sideline) Weather: Overcast and cool, with a high of 51 and temps dropping into the 40s later in the day. There is a chance of showers in the morning, but should clear up well in time for kickoff. COACHES: James Franklin: PENN STATE RECORD: 40-18, 5th Year OVERALL RECORD: 64-33, 7th Year VS. MICHIGAN STATE: 1-3 Mark Dantonio: MICHIGAN STATE RECORD: 103-47, 12th Year OVERALL RECORD: 121-64, 15th Year VS. PENN STATE: 5-4 NOW THE FUN PART.... MICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE Spartans Quarterback Brian Lewerke had his breakout performance against Penn State in 2017, tossing for 400 yards and two touchdowns to help sink the Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes. However, he has yet to establish himself as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in 2018 as many expected. While his completion percentage has improved from 59 to 64.2 percent, he has had issues turning the ball over with six interceptions to just six touchdown passes (Lewerke had 20 touchdowns to seven interceptions all of 2017). It hasn’t helped Lewerke that so much of his supporting cast has been hampered by the injury bug. LJ Scott, perhaps the Big Ten’s most bruising running back, has been out since week two and will be a game-time decision on Saturday. They will also be without Cody White, the team’s second-leading receiver, who is recovering from a broken hand. Freshman receiver Jalen Nailor has also been out since week three with an undisclosed injury. However, the injuries at the skill positions pale in comparison to the offensive line where the Spartans have been forced to rely on several inexperienced players due to a lack of healthy bodies (something Penn State fans can certainly relate to in recent years). The biggest loss is starting left guard David Beedle. The senior returned from injury against Northwestern, only to suffer an arm injury that will sideline him for at least a month. Starting right guard Kevin Jarvis will also be out, and both starting tackles will play limited snaps as they also recover from injuries. The impact of the injuries to Scott and the offensive line is easily noticed with the Spartans run game. Sophomore Connor Heyward and freshman La’Darius Jefferson have filled in for Scott, with very limited success. Against Northwestern last week, Heyward had 12 yards on five carries, while Jefferson contributed 15 yards of six carries. The Spartans are averaging just 123 yards rushing per game, and that paltry sum has been boosted by some major gains by wide receivers on reverses and sweeps. At least Michigan State still has the services of Felton Davis III, one of the Big Ten’s biggest playmakers. Davis has been the only constant for the Spartans offense, and single-handedly kept the Northwestern game close with with 146 yards from the line of scrimmage with two scores. He’s the type of player that you can throw it up to when nothing is working and hope for the best. Penn State’s defense grew up fast against the Buckeyes in week five. Despite a late collapse, the young defense exceeded even the wildest expectations before running out of gas. It will be interesting to see how they build off that performance as they face a more one-dimensional and less explosive attack. Lewerke had no trouble finding holes in Penn State’s defense a year ago, and always found ways to keep the chains moving and keep Trace McSorley and co. on the sidelines last year. He will need another big game, but has already proven he’s capable of doing so. Penn State defensive end Shane Simmons will be making his much-anticipated return to the field after an injury sidelined him for the first five games. Simmons is an incredibly quick edge rusher who will help an already-talented group of defensive ends. Keep an eye out for C.J. Thorpe, a very large and aggressive guard-turned-defensive tackle who will be making just his second appearance on defense. PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE Let’s start off with the bad news for the Penn State offense- they will be facing the nation’s top run defense on Saturday. The Spartans are allowing just 33.8 yards per game on the ground, and a measly 1.32 yards per attempt. Considering how the Buckeyes were able to slow the Nittany Lion rushing attack, it’s no stretch to imagine the Spartans can do the same on Saturday. The silver lining? While Michigan State’s defense is stout against the run, they have also allowed opponents to pass at will throughout the season. The former ‘No Fly Zone’ secondary is just a distant memory, as the Spartans are giving up 305.2 yards per game- ranking 122 of 129 FBS teams. As long as Penn State’s receiving corps can limit dropped passes, Trace McSorley should be in for a huge day. A name you will hear plenty on Saturday is inside linebacker Joe Bachie. The junior is a preseason All-American and is on the watch list for about every major defensive award, as well as the 2017 team MVP. He seemingly is in on the action on every play, and leads the team with 39 tackles. He also has 2.5 TFLs, a sack and an interception on the season. Defensive end Kenny Willekes will also work to blow up plays in Penn State’s backfield, and already has eight TFLs and four sacks through five games. Linebacker Andrew Dowell is also dangerous, registering four TFLs and two sacks thus far, and provides regular pressure off the edge on passing downs. Penn State will likely try to get the run game back on track, despite the Spartans eye-popping statistics. Either way, McSorley will be ready to take over. Fortunately, K.J. Hamler is set to return after an early exit from the Ohio State game after taking a blow to the head.<doc-sep>Until the game actually kicks off, there’s not much to feel good about for Michigan State as it visits Penn State on Saturday. The Spartans are injured, unranked and lost for answers when it comes to their sputtering offense. No. 8 Penn State boasts one of the most productive offenses in the country, it’s fresh off a bye week and it’s organizing a white-out at Beaver Stadium for homecoming. Throw in the memory of losing to MSU on a last-second field goal last season, and there’s plenty of variables stacked against the Spartans. “Sometimes things don't go well and you have to improvise and you have to change up things, but you can make it work, if you have good people — and we have good people," MSU head coach Mark Dantonio said. "We have good people on our football team and we have great people on our staff, and we have a long track record of success. And if you have that, then you can always flip it and you can always turn things and get things going in the right direction, and that's my belief system.” Coming off a home loss to Northwestern, MSU is expected to start its sixth different offensive line in as many games. The Spartans have exhausted themselves looking for ways to develop a rushing attack that currently ranks 109th in the country. “Cole Chewins is back healthier now so that allows us to put him at left tackle,” Dantonio said, “allows us to move Tyler Higby in to left guard, which is where he played predominately last year. “The center is Matt Allen, right guard, Blake Bueter, comes back with his second start. Luke Campbell has been a starter long-term. He needs to play a little bit more effectively, a little bit more on balance, but he has experience and I expect him to play a lot of football. Our right tackle, Jordan Reid’s playing pretty well. Gotta protect the quarterback, gotta find a way to run the football, there's no question about that. “So on it goes.” How to watch Michigan State vs. Penn State It’s unclear whether running back LJ Scott, receivers Jalen Nailor and Darrell Stewart Jr. or offensive lineman Kevin Jarvis will be available to play in Happy Valley. A depleted MSU offense without receiver Cody White and guard David Beedle will try to keep pace with a Penn State unit that averages 49.6 points per game, fourth-best in the nation. Miles Sanders, a 247Sports Composite five-star signee in 2016, has stepped in for the departed Saquon Barkley at running back ,and the Nittany Lions offense hasn’t lost a step despite losing coordinator Joe Moorhead. Quarterback Trace McSorley — who threw for 381 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions against MSU last year — orchestrates it all. Dantonio said Penn State’s average pass attempt goes 13.8 yards downfield. “They have big play receivers. They have an excellent running back. They have got four of their five offensive linemen back,” Dantonio said. “So they’re a challenge offensively, and (McSorley) creates that dynamic, that multiple run-pass-guy type quarterback, and he's got a toughness aspect to him, too. So I think he’s an excellent player, a great leader, and a lot of their success hinges on what he does, so we need to negate his abilities as best we can.” While competent passing attacks have been able to move the ball on the Spartans, they still maintain the nation’s No. 1 run defense. “They are committed to it,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “If you look at this system with coach Dantonio, with coach (Pat) Narduzzi, with coach (Mike) Tressel — I throw Narduzzi in because obviously they come from the same family, the same tree — they have been good on defense and specifically stopping the run for a long time. So they take a lot of pride in making you one-dimensional, and you know, you see that on tape, as well. I know they take a lot of pride in it.” MSU, current caretaker of the Land Grant Trophy, leads the all-time series with Penn State 16-15-1. Get the latest info on Michigan State football, basketball and recruiting sent straight to your inbox. Just enter your email address HERE to sign up for our free Spartans newsletter now!<doc-sep>It’s hard to believe we already in Week 7 of the college football season. The Michigan State Spartans, coming off of a loss to the Northwestern Wildcats, will look to rebound this week, but that is easier said than done as the Penn State Nittany Lions are easily the toughest opponent the Spartans have seen so far this season. MSU will look to retain the Land Grant Trophy. The game will be the first 3:30 p.m. kickoff for MSU this season, and is the first road game for the Spartans since Week 4 against the Indiana Hoosiers. Let’s get right into game preview mode. Tale of the Tape Michigan State: 2018 Record — 3-2 (1-1 Big Ten) Offense (per game basis)— 389.8 total yards, 266.8 passing yards, 123 rushing yards, Defense (per game basis)— 339 yards allowed, 305.2 passing yards allowed, 33.8 rushing yards allowed Cumulative Points Scored (per game basis): 27.2 Cumulative Points Allowed (per game basis): 23.4 Current S&P+ Ranking: 31st Penn State 2018 Record — 4-1 (1-1 Big Ten) Offense (per game basis) — 510 total yards (yikes! ), 248.8 passing yards, 261.2 rushing yards Defense (per game basis)— 354.4 yards allowed, 192.6 passing yards allowed, 161.8 rushing yards allowed Cumulative Points Scored (per game basis): 49.6 (also yikes!) Cumulative Points Allowed (per game basis): 21 Current S&P+ Ranking: 7th Series History/All-Time Records All-time head-to-head record: Michigan State leads 16-15-1 Last Michigan State Win: Nov. 4, 2017 (27-24) Last Penn State Win: Nov. 26, 2016 (45-12) Michigan State all-time record: 697-455-44 Penn State all-time record: 882-388-42 Previous Game Results (Quick Hits Recap) Northwestern 29, Michigan State 19 Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats seem to have Michigan State’s number. Northwestern took an early 14-3 lead on back-to-back big play touchdown passes from Clayton Thorson in the first half, but MSU battled back to take a 19-14 lead deep into the third quarter. Thorson took the lead back with another touchdown pass, and Northwestern added another score late, while MSU and its uninspired play-calling didn’t score again. There was a questionable illegal forward pass called on the Spartans early in the fourth quarter, which negated a big gain, and seemed to be a turning point. Just a quick reminder: TBT to our last meeting with Penn State. @MatthewCoghlin providing the winning kick AND a winning celebration.#TheBestStartHere pic.twitter.com/I2PPESgQSQ — Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) October 11, 2018 Ohio State 27, Penn State 26 Penn State had the almighty Ohio State Buckeyes on their heels, but couldn’t finish. The Nittany Lions raced out to a quick 13-0 lead after a 93-yard pass from Trace McSorley to KJ Hamler in the second quarter. Ohio State got a crucial score right before halftime, then took a 14-13 lead in the third quarter. Penn State responded with two touchdowns, but failed a two-point conversation attempt. The Buckeyes then scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to regain the lead at 27-26. OSU was then able to stop PSU on fourth down on the Lions’ final possession. It is homecoming for Penn State on Saturday, and the stadium will be striped out with blue and white. What color are you reppin' for the #PSUStripeOut on Saturday? ⚪️ Find out what your section should wear: https://t.co/ABqeVZdxER#WeAre pic.twitter.com/MpFzkpgMFa — Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 11, 2018 Key Matchups KJ Hamler vs. MSU Secondary: Redshirt freshmen Hamler, a Michigan native, is a legitimate threat against a poor MSU passing defense. He has great speed and leads PSU with 308 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while averaging about 23.7 yards per catch. He also has been used as a punt and kickoff returner. Whether it’s Justin Layne, Josh Butler or another Spartan guarding Hamler, he absolutely cannot get free or behind the defense. Hamler exited the Ohio State game, but is expected to play. Trace McSorley’s dual threat ability vs. MSU defense: It’s not only the MSU secondary that needs to worry about McSorley. While his passing game prowess is enough to worry about, McSorley’s scrambling ability and knack to make plays is something the front seven need to be well aware of. Michigan State’s top-ranked rushing attack is facing a Penn State team averaging more than 260 yards per contest, and McSorley has rushed for 410 yards and six scores this season. In the passing game, the quarterback has thrown for 1,050 yards and 10 touchdowns, while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. Penn State’s running game vs. Michigan State’s running game: Michigan State’s 109th-ranked rush offense faces Penn State’s 67th-ranked rushing defense. The Spartans, likely to be without LJ Scott once again, need to show up here this week. If MSU controls the trenches and keep the ball away from PSU’s offense, good things will happen. But this is unlikely to happen with MSU’s poor o-line play and nonexistent running game. On the flip side, MSU easily has the best rushing defense in the nation, while Penn State ranks 11th nationally rushing the football. Something’s got to give here. This game will be won in the trenches. Game Info Time: 3:30 p.m. EST TV Channel: Big Ten Network Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania Weather expectations: Cloudy, 50 degrees, winds blowing west/northwest at 11 miles per hour Overview: Hear me out: Penn State is a much better football team than Michigan State, but that doesn’t always matter in this matchup. This year’s meeting has some eerily similar traits to last year’s meeting. For example a two-loss Michigan State team, coming off of a loss to Northwestern the previous week, is playing a Penn State team coming off of a one-point loss to Ohio State the previous game, and nobody expects the Spartans to win. I know there is a plethora of problems with MSU, but I also feel that it would be the most Michigan State-esque thing ever to go into Beaver Stadium and come out with a win this week. I am not saying MSU will win this game, but don’t be surprised if this is a close, competitive and hard-fought game throughout. Remember, Appalachian State took Penn State to overtime. Nothing is certain<doc-sep>
Looking ahead to the Spartans’ Big Ten East Division game Saturday at Penn State. Fast facts Matchup: Michigan State (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) at No. 8 Penn State (4-1, 1-1). When: 3:30 p.m., Saturday. Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. TV/radio: Big Ten Network, WJR-AM (760). Line: Penn State by 13½. Injury report MSU Out: P Jake Hartbarger (right leg, season); CB Tyson Smith (illness, season), LG David Beedle (left arm), WR Cody White (left hand). Doubtful: CB Josiah Scott (left leg). Questionable: CB Josh Butler (undisclosed), RB LJ Scott (leg), FB Collin Lucas (head), RG Kevin Jarvis (right leg), WR Jalen Nailor (undisclosed); DT Mufi Hill-Hunt (knee), TE Noah Davis (undisclosed), LB Ed Warriner (undisclosed), LB Chase Kline (undisclosed), OL James Ohonba (undisclosed). Probable: WR Darrell Stewart Jr. (left ankle), WR Cam Chambers (undisclosed), DE Dillon Alexander (right leg). More:Michigan State's LJ Scott cited for more driving infractions Penn State Out: RB Mark Allen (undisclosed), LB Manny Brown (left program). Out first half: DT Antonio Shelton (targeting penalty). Questionable: DT Ellison Jordan (knee). Scouting report When MSU has the ball The Spartans’ run game continues to be the biggest offensive roadblock. MSU continues to try to present a balanced attack, but the inability to get young RBs Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson room to run has forced QB Brian Lewerke to throw 51 times last week in a 29-19 loss to Northwestern. The Spartans rank 109th in the country with 123 rushing yards per game, which has been buoyed by long runs from WRs. MSU started its fifth different offensive line combination in that game and expect to start a sixth grouping in six games with the loss of David Beedle – the only senior at that position – for more than a month. Cam Chambers’ emergence against the Wildcats helped offset the loss of Cody White, who also is expected to miss at least the next month. Penn State’s defense showed significant improvement in a 27-26 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago, holding the Buckeyes to fewer total yards (389) than it did against Appalachian State (451) and Illinois (411). When Penn State has the ball The Nittany Lions, behind senior QB Trace McSorley, operate one of the nation’s most potent offense. Penn State leads the Big Ten and ranks fourth nationally at 49.6 points per game and is the top red-zone offense at 100 percent efficiency, scoring 23 touchdowns and two field goals in its 25 visits. Coach James Franklin’s team has outscored opponents, 162-55, after halftime this season, including 104-41 in the final quarter and overtime. MSU, on the other hand, has been outscored, 58-18, in the fourth quarter. The Spartans continue to lead the nation in rush defense (33.8 yards per game), though they also are 122nd out of 129 teams in pass defense (305.2 yards). Northwestern basically abandoned the run to attack MSU’s coverage. Most of the yards through the air this season have come on short and intermediate passes, with a few coverage busts (Indiana, CMU, Northwestern) and a few well-thrown balls that bested good defensive play of the cornerbacks leading to the deep completions. MSU’s 23.4 points allowed per game, however, ranks 41st nationally and sixth in the conference. More:Spartans hold players-only meetings, not hitting 'panic button' Know your foe: Penn State Trace-r bullets Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley has overcome losing several offensive teammates to continue to thrive. Now a senior, McSorley is 73 of 138 for 1,049 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He threw for 381 yards and three touchdowns last year in the Spartans’ 27-24 upset, and he had 376 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-12 Penn State win at Beaver Stadium in 2016 to end MSU’s season. Replacing Barkley McSorley has used his legs to help Penn State’s run game grow after the departure of Saquon Barkley to the NFL. McSorley has run for 410 yards on 66 attempts this season, and his 82 yards per game rank sixth in the Big Ten. His six rushing TDs are second in the conference and 24th nationally. Miles Sanders took over for Barkley, and the junior leads Penn State and ranks third in the Big Ten at 107.6 yards per game. Running back Ricky Slade also has four TDs and 147 yards to help Penn State rank 12th in FBS at 261.2 yards per game on the ground.