Most Indians are happy with the direction of the country and economic prospects for the next generation, a Pew survey published weeks ahead of general elections showed, although the level of satisfaction has fallen over time. Lack of employment opportunities is India's biggest problem, said more than three-quarters of those polled, and that had not changed through most of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tenure, the survey found. The survey published on Monday said concerns about terrorism and Pakistan loomed large even before last month's crisis triggered by an attack on a security convoy in Kashmir that Pakistan claims as its own. Three-quarters of Indians believe Pakistan to be a threat and 59 percent said terrorism had become worse. "But despite these worries, most Indian adults are satisfied with the direction of their country and the economic prospects of the next generation," Pew said, summing up the survey result. Of those polled, 54 percent said they were satisfied with the way democracy is working in India. But satisfaction had declined 25 percentage points from 2017, when 79 percent voiced approval. Men are more likely than women to give Indian democracy a thumbs-up, though one in five women decline to offer an opinion, it said. There were 2,521 respondents in the Pew Survey run from May 23 to July 23, 2018, the final year of Modi's term before the election, at which about 900 million people are eligible to vote. Modi is considered the frontrunner to win the election that begins on April 11, but his lead is narrowing and several polls have suggested his Hindu nationalist-led group may fall short of a clear majority required to rule. Renewed tension with arch foe Pakistan has shifted attention somewhat from bread-and-butter issues to national security over the past month, to the advantage of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party. Critics have accused the BJP of creating a climate of fear among India's Muslim minority by promoting a Hindu-first agenda and targeting it for the slaughter of cows they consider sacred and have sometimes questioned its allegiance to India. The BJP denies bias but says it opposes appeasement of any community. Muslims make up about 14 percent of India's population of 1.3 billion.<doc-sep>NEW DELHI: With Lok Sabha elections just a few weeks away, PM Modi has received a massive thumbs up in a mega Times Group online poll, with over two-thirds (83%) of the over 2 lakh respondents who took the survey saying a Modi-led NDA government was the most-likely possibility after the polls.The poll also indicates that the Prime Minister’s personal popularity remains high. With the official announcement of the general election days away, 84% of respondents said that they would prefer Narendra Modi as PM candidate if Lok Sabha polls were held today.Congress president Rahul Gandhi is a distant second as the most-preferred choice for PM among online voters, with 8.33% voting for him, followed by 1.44% for Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, 0.43% for BSP supremo Mayawati and 5.9% predicting another political leader as the next PM.However, when asked if they considered Rahul Gandhi more popular today compared to 2014, as many as 31% responded in the affirmative, while 63% felt the opposite.Significantly, only 3.47% respondents see a non-NDA, non-UPA mahagathbandan government as a likely scenario after the Lok Sabha poll.The poll was conducted online between February 11 and 20 in 9 languages across 13 media properties of the Times Group. The results were concealed from respondents during the 10 days of online polling to negate motivated voting. Almost half a million voted for this survey, however, in order to negate any attempt at gaming the result, ONLY logged in users’ votes (over 2 lakh) were considered, ensuring that only one vote per person was counted.When asked to rate five years of the Modi government , over two-third of respondents rated its track record as good or very good. Out of this, 'very good' accounted for 59.51% and 'good' for 22.29%. About 8.25% termed it as average, while 9.9% found it to be poor.The online survey asked respondents to rate the biggest successes as well as failures of the Modi government. On successes: 34.39% respondents rated more access to facilities for the poor from various schemes as their top choice, followed closely by implementation of GST (29%).Interestingly, lack of progress on Ram temple was rated by respondents (35.72%) as the biggest failure of the Modi government. Compared to this, 29.5% of those who took the survey rated job-creation as the biggest failure.In fact, job-creation has emerged as a primary concern for voters with 40.2% rating it as the biggest issue in the upcoming general election. Farmer distress was rated as the second biggest issue identified by respondents (21.8%) and while Ram mandir was seen as the biggest failure, only 10% see it as an important issue in the Lok Sabha polls.On the question of whether minorities felt insecure under the present government, a majority of respondents (65.5%) said they did not think so. However, 24.2% said minorities do feel insecure.Whether the 10% quota for economically weaker sections, which has recently been passed by a Constitutional amendment will help the government in elections, 72.6% of respondents say that this will help BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.On the contentious and hot topic of Rafale too, the result is quite interesting. Despite the political slugfest, only 17.5% say it will have a negative impact politically on the NDA in the upcoming election, while a whopping 74.6% say it will have no negative impact.<doc-sep>Lok Sabha elections 2019: Times Now-VMR survey predicts return of NDA with 283 seats NEW DELHI: The NDA is all set to return to power winning 283 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections , according to projections by Times Now-VMR opinion survey.The opinion survey, carried out with around 17,000 respondents, gives 135 seats to the UPA while the others are expected to win 125 seats.The survey predicts that NDA will improve its combined vote share from 38.5% in 2014 to 40.1% in 2019. Meanwhile, the UPA is expected to win 30.6% of the total votes, an improvement from 23% in 2014.The Times Now-VMR survey predicts a huge win for the NDA in the Hindi heartland and in the northeast region. It also predicts BJP making significant inroads in West Bengal and Odisha.The ruling combine is projected to win 22 out of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 20 out of the 25 seats in Rajasthan and 6 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. These projections are significant as the BJP had lost power in all three states in the assembly elections last year.The Congress which has formed governments in these states is predicted to win only 7 seats in MP, 5 seats in Rajasthan and 5 seats in Chhattisgarh.In Uttar Pradesh, the projections show significant gains for the BSP-SP combine. Akhilesh and Mayawati are likely to win 36 seats and will succeed in reducing the NDA to 42 seats.The NDA, according to the survey, is projected to make significant gains in Odisha, Maharashtra and West Bengal. The survey predicts 11 seats for NDA in West Bengal, 39 in Maharashtra and 14 in Odisha. While the Trinamool is expected to win 31 seats in West Bengal, Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janta Dal may have to contend with only 7 seats.In Bihar, the NDA is projected to win big with 27 seats while the still-to-be-formed Grand Alliance may win only 13 seats.The BJP is likely to win 15 seats in Karnataka, while the ruling combine of Congress-JD(s) is projected to win only 13 seats.Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are likely to give boost to the non-Congress, non-BJP aligned regional parties. The predictions show 22 seats out of 25 for the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress in Andhra and 13 out of 17 seats for the K Chandrashekhar Rao-led TRS in Telangana. The ruling TDP in Andhra is likely to be restricted to 3 seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is projected to improve its previous tally by winning 16 of the 20 seats, while the ruling LDF may end up with only 3 seats. The predictions show 1 seat for the BJP, which could be a significant inroad in the state.In Tamil Nadu, the survey predicts DMK-led UPA alliance winning 34 out of 39 seats, while the ruling AIADMK may be reduced to 5 seats.<doc-sep>NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (NDA) STRENGTH WEAKNESS OPPORTUNITY THREAT UNITED PROGRESSIVE ALLIANCE (UPA) STRENGTH WEAKNESS OPPORTUNITY THREAT THIRD FRONT STRENGTH WEAKNESS OPPORTUNITY THREAT NEW DELHI: The 2019 poll battle has begun with the Election Commission announcing a seven-phase poll schedule from April 11 to May 19, culminating in the results on May 23. The big question is: who would form the government this time? While Modi is seeking a second term and pitching for a majority mandate, his opponents are attacking him for encouraging a culture of majoritarianism and failing to create employment and contain a crisis in agriculture due to low prices. The polls would be a stern test for Rahul too. TOI does a Swot analysis. Here's a look.PM Modi is seen as decisive leader. Airstrike against Pakistan boosted his strong image and BJP is looking to turn the poll into a presidential-type contest. He has strong pro-poor, anti-graft credentials. Amit Shah’s organisational skills are formidable.SP-BSP and Congress-JD(S) alliances in UP and Karnataka pose a significant political challenge. Farm distress, jobs, GST’s teething troubles, hostility of minority communities, and sullenness among an influential section of dalits could be weak spots for BJP.BJP can pit “national” issues such as 7% growth, tax reforms, welfare schemes, and handling of difficult neighbours against Rahul Gandhi’s inexperience and regional character of leaders like Mamata. Can expect good returns on its ‘stability’ card.Keyman risk of campaign rests heavily on Modi’s shoulders. BJP could face saturation in states it swept in 2014; breaking new ground may not be easy. BJP fighting ‘neutral’ parties like BJD, TRS, YSRCP threatens to make it BJP vs rest.After its abysmally all-time low of 44 LS seats, Congress can only improve. Its recent success in heartland states dents BJP’s ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ slogan. It has sorted succession issues and Rahul Gandhi is the undisputed leader. The party is willing to be part of opposition alliances and not stake claim to PM’s post.Congress campaign is largely negative, attacking BJP on Rafale, intolerance, farm distress, jobs and now questioning airstrikes on Pakistan. Corruption allegations remain weak; especially because of memories of UPA scams, and it has not framed any ‘acche din’ type of narrative that won Modi the 2014 poll.Many central schemes are still works in progress, allowing Congress to use populist promises like loan waivers and job dole to win recent assembly polls. Also, some of BJP’s huge contingent of sitting MPs could suffer from anti-incumbency.Modi’s tough response to Pakistan’s export of terror could make his call for a majority govt more attractive. Congress has gambled on Priyanka Gandhi , but Robert Vadra and his cases are a drag. Congress' exclusion from SP-BSP tie-up weakens its case for leading a coalition.Regional parties like TMC, SP, BSP, DMK and YSRCP are seen to be strong on their respective home turfs, and pose a stronger challenge to BJP than Congress in several states. Winning a chunk of seats in big states at the expense of BJP and Congress would make them contenders for leading the next govt in a hung House.Lacks an undisputed leader for the entire bloc. Nor does it have a single platform since the various constituents follow different tacks to take on eachother or the Congress in states like Bengal, Delhi, Odisha, AP, Telangana , Kerala and TN. Decline of the Left and Congress in the north-east has allowed BJP to establish a strong foothold.Despite its 3 recent state wins, Cong is not the prime opposition force. And while BJP has grown to No. 2 status in many states, it is yet to topple any of the regional incumbents. This could create space for regional parties to make a postpoll claim to lead the govt.A patchwork coalition with regional parties calling shots could worry voters – and may prove rickety. Framing a common programme has proven difficult. Competing PM aspirations may not inspire confidence about the front’s stability Cong’s exclusion from SP-BSP tie-up weakens its case for leading a coalition.<doc-sep>
While opinion polls and surveys may be the closest indicator to how Indians will vote in the upcoming general election, the results of state elections and bypolls over the last five years can give an insight into voter behaviour. 2014: BJP’s ‘Honeymoon Period’ The first big state election after the BJP’s sweep in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was in Maharashtra. Expecting an upsurge of the “Modi wave”, the BJP demanded more seats, leading to a tussle with the Shiv Sena. While the BJP emerged the single largest party, doubling its vote share from 14 percent to 28 percent, it still needed the Uddhav Thackeray-led party’s support to form the government. This ended the Congress’ ten-year rule in the state. The BJP later won elections in Haryana and Jharkhand by a big margin and did the unthinkable by partnering with the People’s Democratic Party to form a government in Jammu and Kashmir—which was dissolved a few years later. 2015: Bihar, Delhi Halt The ‘Modi Wave’ The BJP’s ‘honeymoon’ didn’t extend into the next year, with regional political parties stepping up. In Bihar, bitter rivals Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav forged a “Mahagatbandhan” (mega alliance) with the Congress that won the state elections. Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, which was written off by many, emerged the single largest party. Nitish would eventually turn back to the BJP. The Delhi assembly election sprang another surprise, with the fledgling Aam Aadmi Party winning 67 out of 70 seats, leaving the BJP with three. 2016: Foray Into North East, Regional Players Dominate The BJP won in Assam, ending fifteen years of Congress rule. The importance of regional players was underlined once again with massive wins for Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, the late J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu and a resurgent Left in Kerala. The only silver lining for Congress was in Puducherry. 2017: Demonetisation Powers BJP’s March, Congress Revives Days after announcing demonetisation—in which over 86 percent of the nation’s currency notes was invalidated to fight the parallel or black money—the BJP won the Uttar Pradesh elections in a landslide. Uttarakhand and Haryana followed, with healthy margins. The party managed to retain Goa, despite Congress emerging as the single largest party after elections, and formed a government in Manipur for the first time. The “fly in the ointment” was Gujarat, where the BJP scraped through with a slim margin, losing largely in rural areas. It was also a wakeup call for the party on the impact of rural distress. The Congress could claim a moral victory in Gujarat—the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi—and a clear win in Punjab, which was credited to party’s state unit, Captain Amarinder Singh. 2018: Congress Wrests Three Hindi Heartland States This was a crucial year for the grand old party, which won elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The close fight in two of these states gave rise to the sentiment that the voter hasn’t changed her mind completely. The BJP’s dominance in the North East grew unabated. It won elections or formed governments with alliances in Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland. The Congress managed to retain power in Karnataka in alliance with the JDS despite the BJP emerging the single-largest party. In Telangana, the power of strong regional leaders was on display once again with the TRS’ astounding win. In all, 27 states went to the hustings since the 2014 general election, with the BJP and its allies winning 14, the Congress winning 7 and other parties 6. Out of this, the BJP won in 12 states where an incumbent was booted out and retained power in two states. It lost in four states where it was in power to either the Congress or other opposition parties.