If Thursday night is any indication, the action in Week 3 is going to be off the charts. Tyrod Taylor suffers a concussion, Baker Mayfield comes in down a couple of scores and leads the Browns on a rousing comeback to give them their first win in 635 days. When people say football is completely unpredictable, they're right (although at least one person called his shot on this). Which is a nice way of noting that boy, was I unable to predict anything last week. I actually managed to go 0-5 in my best bets and although I have a litany of excuses, no one wants to hear those. In fact, the only excuse I can make here is I didn't listen to myself; dealing with a bunch of issues on the homefront that were as unbelievable as the script Baker penned on Thursday night, I didn't change course and try to find some different games. I saw the train coming and didn't bother getting off the tracks. I felt exactly how Sam Darnold looked, standing on the sideline after throwing an interception with his team down 21-17 to the Fighting Mayfields and realizing what was happening to him. via NFL GamePass But like Darnold (and the Browns for two years before last night), I've got to get up off the mat and pick some daggum winners. Let's go. Yell at me on Twitter @WillBrinson and if you want all the gambling, fantasy, DFS and general football info your brain can handle on a daily basis, make sure and subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast. What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? And what favorite goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years. This line moved a little bit in favor of the Seahawks, presumably with money coming in on the home team. It's a little surprising, considering we just saw these two teams play on prime time. The Cowboys looked pretty dominant in a win over the lowly Giants, and the most impressive part was their front seven on defense. That's a bad formula for a Seahawks team that looked pretty sloppy and overwhelmed against the Bears on Monday night, with Seattle allowing Russell Wilson to get sacked six times for the second straight game. But you know what? I'm not writing off Seattle completely yet. First of all, they have the best quarterback in this game. Second of all, they went against two good defenses in Denver and Chicago to start the season. And finally, they're playing at home for the first time this season. Do you know how many home games Pete Carroll's lost in September since he got the job with the Seahawks in 2010? Zero. Not a one. Give me the home team here with less than a field goal. Saints +3 at Falcons Standard field goal line game here right? Pete Prisco said on the podcast Friday (subscribe here!) he thinks this line "stinks," which I think speaks to how people value these two teams. Most believe the Falcons are playing much better, which is fine, maybe. Atlanta egged against the Eagles and beat up on a banged-up Carolina team at home last week. The Saints lost a shootout to the Buccaneers and then nearly lost to the lowly Browns ... but what if Tampa Bay and Cleveland are better than we think and it's not a fluke how they're playing to start the season? That's very possible. Playing away from New Orleans could be a concern, but the Saints get to play in a dome so I'm not sweating the situation at all -- they play quite well in weather-proof scenarios not at home. This could be a "oh their defense is still good" game for New Orleans with a banged-up offensive line for Atlanta, and Alvin Kamara should have a field day against a defense missing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Baltimore lost last Thursday night in an ugly one against Cincinnati, a game we probably should have seen coming considering the hype off a win over the Bills (unwarranted). This is a pretty decent amount of points, but I love a few things about this game. One, the Ravens have the better quarterback (don't say that often). Two, John Harbaugh is 11-5 against the spread coming off a double-digit loss. Three, Case Keenum is banged up with a knee injury that, while it won't keep him from playing, could limit him. And four, I'm not sure the Broncos have played anyone great either; they beat the Seahawks and Raiders, both of whom were playing in Denver, by a combined four points. Traveling to the East Coast and taking on a substantially better opponent is a bad spot for this team. Baltimore rolls pretty handily. This is an overreaction to Sunday, and it would have been higher if not for you darn kids the refs letting Minnesota off the hook with that Clay Matthews roughing the passer penalty. Washington actually looked pretty good against the Colts, I thought, except for being sloppy most of the game. They could have easily won that matchup, and I think this is too much of a swing in terms of the line against a Green Bay team that is playing chicken with Aaron Rodgers' knee. The quarterback admitted this week he could be doing worse damage to himself by continuing to play, and the Redskins have the ability to push the pocket and get pressure on passers. That could spell problem for a fairly immobile Rodgers. Sleeper to watch this week: Josh Doctson, who has yet to find the end zone this season but who has been targeted fairly frequently and should have had a nice game last week but for one tough sideline catch that was ruled a drop. Colts +6.5 at Eagles Little worried about this line considering that Carson Wentz is coming back and the Eagles' coaching staff has a pretty good knowledge about the Colts group of coaches -- Frank Reich was the OC under Doug Pederson last year and defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus was in Dallas before -- but I actually think the benefit runs other way more. I also believe the Colts are a better football team than people think. They showed a lot of it against the Redskins in Week 2, but people are chalking that up to Washington being bad. It's not the case. The Colts have turned, almost overnight, into a physical football team at the point of attack. Quenton Nelson is a monster up front, a guy who loves to destroy defenders, and it's resulted in additional protection for Andrew Luck and the ability to utilize Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack in a variety of ways in the run game. I'm going to wait on putting my picks in for this game: I really want to take Indy, but I'm also concerned about the injuries for both teams. T.Y. Hilton hasn't practiced as of Friday morning and neither has Anthony Castonzo. Jack Doyle and Mack are missing too. If Luck has no weapons and less protection, I might stay away. Unless the Eagles are just short everyone too: Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, Jason Peters and Alshon Jeffery are all on the injury report. If those guys look like they're all going to play on Friday, I might stay away. But don't sleep on the Colts stealing this one. Alternate: Chargers (+7) at (?) Rams The "Battle of L.A." is going down this weekend and I think the Chargers will be my only "alternate" pick for the SuperContest -- I have until Saturday morning to get my picks in, and if there's some major injury on Friday or some changes to the Colts-Eagles injury report that I don't like, I may just zig and go with the Chargers here. The Rams are abjectly terrifying: they have a great defense with great corners and a nasty defensive line. On offense, Todd Gurley is just picking up where he left off last year after landing a new contract this offseason. Brandin Cooks is set to have a monster year and Robert Woods remains underrated. Sean McVay is a genius with a better memory than an elephant on Adderall. But the Chargers shouldn't be a touchdown underdog to someone in the same city where they play football. There aren't enough Chargers fans in L.A. to show up for a home game, much less an away game, but this is still a good football team. They were boatraced by the Chiefs in Week 1 but eventually made it a game. I was impressed with the road game beatdown they laid on the Bills, however. If they minimize mistakes and protect Philip Rivers, this will be a close game. The Bolts will probably figure out a way to screw it up late (horrible turnover or perhaps a missed field goal?) but they can keep this close and potentially pull off the upset.<doc-sep>Here are five teams that should consider themselves on upset alert heading into NFL Week 3 of the 2018 season. Two weeks of the 2018 season, and there have already been plenty of crazy unexpected upsets, whether it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Indianapolis Colts taking down the Washington Redskins on the road. As for what NFL Week 3 has in store, well let’s just say there are plenty of games worth monitoring when it comes to potential upsets taking place once again, one of which involves the defending Super Bowl champions. After months of being patient, Carson Wentz will return to the football field under center for the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday when they host the Colts for the first time since his devastating knee injury suffered last December. Over the last two weeks, Nick Foles has done everything in his power to help the Eagles’ offense put up points, but unfortunately that was easier said than done when looking at all of the injuries they’ve been dealing with. Healthy receivers like Alshon Jeffery and Mack Hollins would have made a huge difference for Foles. And even though the argument can be made that Wentz will experience some of the same issue, keep in mind that he has a different style of play that will hopefully provide a much-needed spark for Philadelphia on offense. Falling below .500 before the final weekend of September would be frustrating for a team like the Eagles to deal with, but also the Colts aren’t a team to take lightly since they’re coming off a big win of their own over the Redskins, as mentioned before. Along with Philadelphia, here are a few other candidates to consider for being on upset alert in Week 3, beginning with the Minnesota Vikings.<doc-sep>
NFL expert handicapper Mike Tierney has become a master at finding the right underdogs to back. He has done it with success in the opening two weeks of the 2018 NFL season, so you'll definitely want to hear his NFL Underdogs of the Week for Week 3. No one knows the NFL like the "Top Dog," the national sportswriter who has reported from seven Super Bowls. He has his finger on the pulse of the league, and excels both against the spread and straight-up. And he knows a good upset pick when he sees one. He absolutely crushed both of his NFL upset picks in Week 1, taking the Bengals (a +3 underdog), who won at 34-23 at the Colts, and the Dolphins (+1.5), who won 27-20 at the Titans. In Week 2, he picked the Dolphins again straight-up (+3) against the Jets. Miami led 20-0 at halftime in a 20-12 victory, another easy winner for Tierney and his followers. Now Tierney has studied the matchups and revealed a pair of confident upset picks for Week 3. We can tell you one of those teams is the Cowboys, 1.5-point underdogs at the Seahawks. He also has an even-more confident upset pick, posted exclusively at SportsLine. Tierney knows Dallas' offense has been underwhelming, but it likely won't need to pile on the points against a Seahawks team that's managed just 28 points so far this season. One big reason for the lack of scoring for Seattle, and potentially a big issue for Sunday, is the offensive line's inability to give Russell Wilson much protection. Wilson has been sacked 12 times through two games, the most in the NFL. That plays right into the strength of the Cowboys' defense. Dallas has sacked opposing QBs nine times, second-most in the league, and has allowed only 29 points, third-fewest. "In Week 1, they silenced Carolina QB Cam Newton (161 passing yards, no TDs.) They followed up by corralling Giants RB Saquon Barkley (11 rushes, 28 yards)," Tierney told SportsLine. "If Dallas QB Dak Prescott can generate 20 points, that should suffice for a mild upset." His other underdog pick is a team many experts, and Vegas oddsmakers, are overlooking, but Tierney points to two critical x-factors that he says turn this underdog into a favorite. So what is Mike Tierney's NFL underdog pick of the week? Visit SportsLine now to see which underdog team shocks the world in Week 3, all from the expert who has crushed the sportsbooks with his NFL picks, and find out.