Two years ago, Pitt won at Clemson 43-42 when the Tigers were No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Last year, the Panthers defeated Miami 24-14 when the Hurricanes were No. 2 in the CFP rankings. This year’s first playoff rankings don’t come out until Oct. 30, but the Irish are No. 5 in the AP poll. One way to avoid an upset is to set the tone early. The Irish did that last week, scoring a touchdown on their opening drive at Virginia Tech.<doc-sep>There were some rumblings across the college football world that this Saturday could be a special kind of Saturday. Still... I don’t think anyone was prepared for the type of day that it was going to become — least of all fans of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame was a 3 touchdown favorite against the Pittsburgh Panthers, but we found out pretty quickly that the spread Vegas gave us was going to get thrown out of the damn window. Now, if you’re still feeling pretty crappy about that 19-14 win over Pitt, let me remind you what happened on Saturday: #2 Lost #3 Won kind of meh #5 Hello ND #6 Lost #7 Lost #8 Lost #9 Close Win #10 Close Win So... four of the top eight lost, while 4 of the top 10 won close games (Ohio State was 2 scores... but meh). The only two not to be involved in this mess... Alabama and Clemson. The former still played the sloppiest game of its season, and the later had a bye. It was SCARY AF SATURDAY. Notre Dame won, and we should be a lot happier than what we are probably feeling. 7-0 y’all. 2 PLAYS FOR 2 SCORES WAS SPECIAL The Notre Dame defense actually played lights out today. Pitt scored two touchdowns today, and they were both directly related to something the special teams unit did. The first was the offsides call on Nicco Fertitta on a punt return. It kept the Pitt drive alive in the first quarter, and they punched it in the endzone. The second was a kickoff return for touchdown by Maurice Ffrench at the start of the 3rd quarter. AND THAT’S IT. Pitt racked up a grand total of 242 yards. With no Troy Pride Jr. (ankle) today, their performance was more than acceptable. 2 MUCH PRESSURE While it can certainly be said that the “pressure got to ND this week,” by those that follow the program, it was much more specific. The offensive line could not handle the different pressures, schemes, and blitz packages that Pitt was bringing regularly. At one point, I had flashbacks of a flying Ram Vela (Navy 2007) when Dennis Briggs cam flying in off the edge to sack Ian Book. Pitt recorded 3 sacks, but somehow only managed 3 QB hurries. It felt like Ian Book was being pressured all game long, and perhaps that’s because he played like there was pressure around him when there wasn’t. That’s a credit to Pitt, but also an indictment of the Irish offensive line. They have a lot to work on over the bye, and maybe that’s some movement along the line. 2 SEARCH After two weeks of Dexter Williams heroics, the senior running back was shut down by the Pitt defense. Williams had 13 carries for 31 yards, and 2 receptions for 2 yards. Once again, the biggest culprit was the Irish offensive line. There were, basically, no running lanes to be found. I think we all kept waiting for Dexter to break one wide open — and yet it never came. It really was one of those days that Notre Dame probably needed to throw more as Brian Kelly suggested in the post game presser. I really can’t believe I’m agreeing with that, but the best way to beat all that pressure from Pitt’s front 7 (and 8) would be to use some screens. That could have been Dexter’s big breaks for the game — but Notre Dame can’t run a screen to its running backs to save its life or its season. 2 LEGIT PLAYERS Even with all of the frustrating play during the game, there were two players that stood out the most against Pitt. Miles Boykin. The Book to Boykin combo still proves deadly, and Miles caught 4 balls for 84 yards and that TD. Julian Okwara. The Irish defense had an astonishing 10 quarterback hurries against the Panthers, and Julian had SEVEN of them. YO! He also had a pass break-up and 6 tackles. MORE THINGS 2 SAY<doc-sep>Carlos Osorio/Associated Press The Pittsburgh Panthers aren't known as road warriors, but they are 10-1-1 against the spread their last 12 times out on the road against teams with winning records. Notre Dame qualifies as a team with a winning record, so who's the smart bet for Saturday afternoon's Panthers-Irish clash in South Bend? College football point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 21-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.6-21.9 Fighting Irish (College football picks on every game) Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news. Why the Pittsburgh Panthers can cover the spread Pitt just reached 3-3 on the season with a 44-37 overtime victory over Syracuse last week. Video Play Button Videos you might like The Panthers spotted the Orange the first 14 points of the game but scored the next 20 to take the lead. They then pushed their advantage to 27-17 early in the third quarter, fell down by a touchdown early in the fourth but kicked a field goal at the buzzer to force OT. Pitt then won it with a touchdown in the top of the overtime period and an interception in the end zone in the bottom. On the day, the Panthers piled up 402 yards of offense—265 of it on the ground—and held a 32/28 edge in time of possession. They also got field goals of 54, 55 and 45 yards from kicker Alex Kessman, the last of which sent the game to OT. Pittsburgh has now outrushed four of its six opponents this season. Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread The Irish are 6-0 on the season and sneaking up the rankings following their 45-23 victory at Virginia Tech last week. Notre Dame drove the opening possession of the game 78 yards to a touchdown and led 17-16 at halftime. It then scored the first 21 points out of the locker room, on its way toward the win and the cover as a six-point road favorite. On the night, the Irish accumulated 438 yards of offense, as quarterback Ian Book threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns while running back Dexter Williams ran for 178 and three scores, including a 97-yarder early in the third quarter that broke the game open. Meanwhile, the Notre Dame defense scored on a fumble return and held the Hokies to one second-half score. So the Irish are now 3-0 both SU and ATS with Book starting at quarterback, averaging 46 points per game. Smart betting pick Notre Dame is clicking with Book, and it will win this game outright. Pitt, meanwhile, is 0-2 both SU and ATS this season against its two toughest opponents so far, losing to Penn State and Central Florida by a combined score of 96-20. Despite the Panthers' recent success on the road, smart money here gives the points with the Irish. College football betting trends Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last five games vs Notre Dame. Notre Dame is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games vs the ACC. The total has gone under in four of Notre Dame's last five games at home. All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.<doc-sep>
On a bizarre Saturday around college football, sometimes the best a team can hope for is to get the win -- no matter how ugly or tough -- and move on. That was the case for No. 5 Notre Dame, which needed a late fourth quarter touchdown to avoid being upset by Pitt, 19-14 in South Bend. This was more than a slow start by the Irish. The offense wasn't able to get into the end zone until there were two minutes left in the third quarter. Overall, the Irish averaged 4.9 yards per play, had a pair of interceptions and a brutal failed fourth-down attempt in the fourth quarter that could have cost them the game. Still, the upset was avoided, so here's what we learned about the close call in South Bend. 1. Notre Dame's offense underperformed. Or Pitt's defense played better than expected, depending on your viewpoint. The reality is it's a little bit of both. Notre Dame had a hard time running the ball at 2.1 yards per rush. For as much as quarterback Ian Book has elevated the ceiling of this offense, it doesn't matter if the Irish can't run the ball effectively. And this is against a run defense that ranks near the bottom of the ACC. But credit to Pitt's defense for showing up. The Panthers had given up 18 touchdowns in three losses before Saturday. 2. Never play Pitt if you're a top five team. Pitt's notorious record against top-five teams didn't entirely help this time, but it's still good to avoid the Panthers in these situations if possible. (Note that Notre Dame has to play Pitt as part of its scheduling agreement with the ACC, so there's no avoiding it there.) Pitt, of course, had monster wins over No. 2 Miami in 2017, No. 2 Clemson in 2016 and No. 2 West Virginia in 2007. This looked like another game in which the Panthers might pull off a massive upset by getting its opponent to play down. Notre Dame came away with the win, but it wasn't easy by any means. It was a very "2012 Notre Dame survive-and-advance" type of win. The Irish will take it ... and maybe burn the film. 3. Pitt's special teams were costly. The Panthers kicked off the second half with a monster 99-yard touchdown return by Maurice Ffrench. However, special teams were mostly costly in this loss. Kicker Alex Kessman went 0-for-2 on field goal attempts and coach Pat Narduzzi called a bizarre fake punt with about three minutes remaining from near midfield. Sometimes, so-called "bad calls" are really just plays that weren't executed properly, but in that instance, Pitt was better off simply going for it on fourth down instead of trying to catch Notre Dame off guard and giving the Irish good field position. In a close game, special teams can make a difference. That was the case here. 4. Having Book still paid off. The move to Book midseason has been a well-documented success. And while this was nowhere near Notre Dame's best offensive performance, it still helps immensely to have a quarterback who can hit the downfield pass. That's exactly what Book did on the Irish's 35-yard pass to Miles Boykin in the fourth quarter for the go-ahead score. It felt like a matter of time before the Irish were about to break something open once there was clear urgency. That was the difference-making play. Sometimes, that one play is all you need.