The San Jose Sharks might have a Mark Stone-sized problem on their hands when the Las Vegas Golden Knights come to town for the first-round playoffs series between the budding rivals. Though the Knights experienced their fare share of ups and downs during the March home stretch, one thing remained mostly constant: their offense. Since Christmas, the Golden Knights’ 5-on-5 offense has taken the third-highest rate of shots in the league, the third-highest rate of unblocked shots and led the league in the rate of expected goals generated. During that time, the I-still-can’t-believe-the-league-let-an-expansion-team-do-this Knights’ expected shooting percentage on unblocked shots also paced the 31-team National Hockey League (NHL) (Corsica). They’ve been taking shots, getting said shots through traffic and creating dangerous chances and, if you’re keeping score at home, have even managed to underperform relative to those metrics. Everything amounts to the Knights owning what has been arguably the league’s most consistently dangerous offense during the second half of the season. You can see their final stretch of games, below. The deeper the red and the higher the plateaus, the more unblocked shots the team is generating. The Knights are getting pucks in front of the net and up and down the left side of the zone. For the Sharks, it appears that the Knights’ recent pattern of shot generation could pose quite a threat. San Jose’s team defensive structure has allowed opponent shots in a pattern that is almost a mirror image of the Knights’ offense. If these trends continue into the postseason, the sweet Golden Knights may yet again prove a difficult challenge for the Sharks’ defense. Leading the way for the Knights during the season’s second half and subsequent dog days has been expected goal monster, 33-year-old Paul Stastny. Playing mostly with Max Pacioretty and Alex Tuch, mixed in with Brandon Pirri and, most recently, deadline acquisition Mark Stone. According to Evolving Hockey’s adjusted metrics, Stastny has had the seventh-biggest impact on even-strength expected goals this season among forwards with at least 50 minutes of ice time. His new linemate, Stone has been the league’s second-best forward this season in that capacity, but these metrics adjust for teammates, so Stastny’s been doing this no matter his wingers. Indeed, the Stastny, Pacioretty, Stone line ranks second in its rate of 5-on-5 expected goals generated among all 225 forward lines to play at least 100 minutes together this season (Corsica). Those three have combined to create more than four expected goals per hour of ice time together. Three expected goals per hour is exceptional. Four is something you’d see paired with “unsustainable” often. This time, however, the Stastny and Stone combination appears to be a match made for long-term success. The team’s nominal second line generates an extra 1.27 expected goals per hour and produces unblocked shots are are nearly two percent more likely to go in relative to the rest of the team. While none of the team’s other three lines is any sort of slouch offensively, it’s clear that for San Jose to win its first-round series, it must find a way to silence the Stastny-Stone pair. To do so, Shark Coach Pete DeBoer will employ what looks to be the following defense pairs: Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Brent Burns Brenden Dillon and Erik Karlsson and Joakim Ryan and Justin Braun There may not be a pair better suited to neutralize the Knights’ top threat than the Dillonand Karlsson duo. Between Dillon’s ability to separate man from puck and Karlsson’s penchant for breaking up zone entries before they develop, the unlikely shutdown unit may be able to hamstring Stastny and Stone long enough to keep them off the scoreboard. Together, the pair has swallowed opposing offenses’ advances almost altogether. Despite that mound of unblocked shots just in front of the Sharks’ goal, this pair has forced teams into unblocked shots that are 17 percent less likely to go in than those of a league-average offense. This season, Erik Karlsson has played the most against opponents’ middle-six forwards. While Stastny has led the Knights’ forward corps in ice time for the last 20 games or so, Stone and Pacioretty are firmly in the 5-to-7 range, making a Karlsson and Stone matchup likely. In the aftermath of Radim Simek’s injury, the Sharks’ coaching staff has searched mostly unsuccessfully for Simek’s replacement. The Czech defender proved exceptionally adept at limiting opponents expected goals and shots this season, making him an ideal partner for the high-risk, high-reward Burns. It has become painfully apparent that the coaching staff does not think Joakim Ryan — the man whom Simek replaced earlier this season — is capable of limiting the pair’s chances against. As a result, they’ve turned to a struggling Marc-Edouard Vlasic to fill the void. In just fewer than 180 even-strength minutes together this season, the Vlasic and Burns pair has allowed expected goals at the rate of the Ryan and Burns pair. A closer look reveals that most of those minutes have been in increments of three minutes or fewer most nights, making it difficult to lend much credence to the aggregate numbers. Against the Chicago Blackhawks on March 28, the two played nearly eight 5-on-5 minutes together and allowed a rate of just 1.44 expected goals per hour, an even more impressive number than the season-long Burns and Simek pair. Against the Oilers on April 4, the pair played six minutes together and allowed a paltry rate of 1.57 expected goals against per hour, an exciting development. However, against the Avalanche during the team’s regular-season finale, the Wookie and the dog walker let the Colorado team produce 2.66 expected goals per hour in 12.5 minutes, an unflattering, if not horrendous result (Natural Stat Trick). No matter his partner over the course of the season, Vlasic has played mostly against opponents’ top-three forwards in terms of ice time. In this series, he’ll be tasked with taking down a combination of the vaunted-but-underperforming William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith line and the Stastny firehose. Finally, a relatively new creation of Joakim Ryan and Justin Braun creates a seemingly bizarre third pair. While there isn’t enough information to form an educated opinion about the two together so far, we can see roughly what each player’s strengths and weaknesses have been this season and try to put two and two together. These two will be tasked primarily with keeping the bottom of the Knights’ forward lineup at bay. If Ryan’s offensive prowess can combine nicely with Braun’s defensive fortitude, the pair could be a trouble-making asset for San Jose. Finally, 20 percent (and perhaps a bit less in the playoffs) of the game is spent on special teams. Though Martin Jones is enjoying his second-straight season of phenomenal penalty kill numbers, the skaters in front of him are doing their ‘tender no favors. Though the Sharks limit shots against, they allow plenty of dangerous chances while killing penalties. In what should be a point in their favor, the Knights neither take nor draw many penalties, keeping the amount of man-(dis)advantage hockey to a minimum. That’s a benefit for the Sharks because Vegas’ power play poses a decent threat. Though the Knights’ pattern of unblocked shots on the man advantage isn’t as intimidating as that of their even-strength offense, a plus-four figure here is among the league’s better power plays. San Jose will have to be wary of the Knights’ side-to-side movement if it is to avoid allowing goals from above the dots. There are no surprises among the Knights’ forward group. Paul Stastny and Mark Stone have combined to form a monster, allowing the previously feared William Karlsson line to take advantage of lesser matchups. For the Sharks, uncertainty reigns, as two of their current defense pairs are works in progress with very little history together. It would not surprise any onlooker to see different variations of the defense pairs we see today before us during this series, depending on how the first game or two go. One thing is for sure: Much will depend on how the Sharks’ depth pairs pan out and perform against a dangerous Vegas offense.<doc-sep>Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks Series Betting Odds Golden Knights odds: -115 -115 Sharks odds: -105 The Vegas Golden Knights made it two postseason berths in as many seasons with another impressive campaign in 2018-19. The biggest difference from last season to this one, though, is that fewer people have been paying attention. But make no bones about it, this version of the Knights is just as much of a contender as the Cinderella Knights from a season ago. After making quick work of the Kings in Round 1 last spring, things presumably won’t be as straightforward for Vegas this season, as the San Jose Sharks are a much more formidable opponent than Los Angeles was a year ago. The odds for this series opened at -110 each way at the Westgate SuperBook, but they have since moved towards Vegas. That could be local sentiment, but I actually think it’s the right move. Let’s examine why. Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks Series Preview Under the hood, things look great for both teams, and the advanced metrics paint a picture of a coin-flip series. But there is something that separates these two teams — the goaltending. Martin Jones has made a habit, ever since joining San Jose from Los Angeles, of putting in mediocre regular seasons and then turning into Patrick Roy in April and May. Last season, Jones posted a -5.25 Goals Saved Above Average in the regular season and then in the playoffs he stopped 93% of the shots he faced. That wasn’t the first time he’s pulled that stunt, either. In 40 playoff games with the Sharks, Jones has a .926 raw save percentage. In 285 regular season games that number dips to .911. Goalies are already incredibly fickle and hard to project, but Jones’ regular season-playoff splits boggle the mind. On the other end of the ice will be Marc-Andre Fleury, who is getting some Vezina buzz this season. I don’t think the numbers suggest Fleury has been that good, but he’s been reliable, which is a lot more than we can say about Jones. According to Corsica Hockey, Fleury is the No. 7 ranked goaltender in the NHL. Jones is ranked 42nd. It should be noted that Fleury has been battling a lower-body injury for the better part of a month. “Flower” did start in the Knights’ season finale, though, and looked just fine. In front of the netminders, things are tight. The Sharks have three of the best defensemen in the league. The Knights have one of the most-potent top-sixes. San Jose has the ability to roll four lines. The Knights can match up with any of them. In terms of star power, the Sharks have three of the best defensemen in the NHL. Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic can each play 30 minutes of great hockey a night, which is a huge deal in what figures to be a grind-it-out series. Things look promising up front for San Jose, too. The Sharks’ top nine may not get that much press outside of the Pacific Division, but this is an incredibly deep group with scoring punch thanks to Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, and so on. The Knights don’t have any players in the realm of Karlsson or Burns on defense, but there aren’t many teams who can hold a candle to Vegas’ forwards. The addition of Mark Stone at the trade deadline turned the Knights’ top-six from great to elite and the battle between Vegas’ forwards vs. Burns, Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic should be sensational. There’s really so little to pick apart between these two teams, which is why I think the disparity between goalies will loom large. If “Playoff Martin Jones” shows up, so be it. But I’m willing to pay the -115 on that not being the case and the Knights advancing. Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook and current as of Sunday evening. Data courtesy of Corsica, Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.<doc-sep>SAN JOSE — The Sharks will not have to wait long for their opening round playoff series against the Vegas Golden Knights to begin. The Sharks and Golden Knights will start their best-of-seven series Wednesday at SAP Center, with Game 2 on Friday. Both games are at 7:30 p.m. (PDT). The series shifts to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for games 3 and 4 on April 14 and April 16, respectively. Game 3 is at 7 p.m. and Game 4 is at 7:30 p.m. Like our Sharks Facebook page for more San Jose Sharks news, commentary and conversation. If necessary, the series will continue with Game 5 in San Jose on April 18, Game 6 in Las Vegas on April 21 and Game 7 back in San Jose on April 23. Start times for those potential games have not yet been announced. NBC Sports California will televise at least the first four games locally. The television networks for potential games 5, 6 and 7 have not been announced yet. All Sharks playoff games can be heard on 98.5 KFOX (KUFX-FM) and the San Jose Sharks Radio Network. Dates for all NHL first round playoff series can be found here. The Sharks finished the regular season with the second-best record (46-27-9) in the Western Conference after a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, just their third victory in 12 games. The game featured the return of defenseman Erik Karlsson after a 17-game absence with a groin injury. The Sharks played without forward Timo Meier, who was hurt in Thursday’s game against the Edmonton Oilers. Meier, though, is expected to be available to play Wednesday. The Knights (43-32-7) finished seventh in the west, as they ended the regular season on a 1-5-2 skid. They do, though, have back goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who had a .934 save percentage and a 2.14 goals against average in six playoff games against the Sharks last season. “I’ve never worried about who we play against. It’s always about our own game,” general manager Doug Wilson said Saturday on the Sharks’ radio postgame show. “Our team is a different team than it was a year ago. (Vegas is) a different team also. When you come in and you put all of our pieces together when you play the right way, we’re never worried about our opponents.” Fleury came back to play the Golden Knights’ last two regular season games this week after he missed nine straight with a lower body injury. “Fleury got to play a couple games here, and he feels real good,” Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant said Saturday after his team’s 5-2 loss to Los Angeles. “We’re happy about that.” This is the first time the Sharks will have home ice advantage for a first round playoff series since 2014, and that may be important. The Sharks have a 3-4 record, including playoffs, all-time at home against Vegas, and are 2-4-1 at T-Mobile Arena. The Golden Knights had home ice advantage in their playoff series against the Sharks last season and won two of the three games at T-Mobile Arena. For complete Sharks coverage follow us on Flipboard. The Sharks and Golden Knights split their four meetings this season, and their two meetings in San Jose in March. The Sharks lost to the Golden Knights 7-3 on March 18 and beat Vegas 4-3 in overtime on March 30, a game that had a combined 42 penalty minutes. In the four regular season meetings, Jonathan Marchessault had six points for Vegas and William Karlsson had five points. Logan Couture led the Sharks with four points and Brent Burns and Tomas Hertl each had three points. Related Articles San Jose Sharks reach last-minute settlement over Google’s downtown development NHL Draft Lottery: San Jose Sharks now know their chances of winning San Jose Sharks final grades: Too many key players fell short of expectations Items from Patrick Marleau’s historic night to be on display Bob Boughner believes associate coach will be an NHL bench boss soon As of late last week, fewer than 1,000 tickets remained available for each of the first two games in San Jose, although the Sharks expect all first round playoff games to sell out soon. Sharks vs. Golden Knights playoff series schedule (all times Pacific) Wednesday: Vegas at San Jose, 7:30 p.m. (NBCS California) Friday: Vegas at San Jose, 7:30 p.m. (NBCS California) April 14: San Jose at Vegas, 7 p.m. (NBCS California) April 16: San Jose at Vegas, 7:30 p.m. (NBCS California) *April 18: Vegas at San Jose, TBD *April 21: San Jose at Vegas, TBD *April 23: Vegas at San Jose, TBD *if necessary<doc-sep>
The San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights will square off in a matchup that may well go down as the best of the entire 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs. Who will win? Let's break it down: How they got here: They didn't get it done until September, but the Sharks landed the prize of the NHL offseason in defenseman Erik Karlsson, giving them two of the league's premiere offensive blueliners along with Brent Burns. He joined a veteran team primed for a Stanley Cup run this season, with players like Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, pending unrestricted free agent Joe Pavelski and Evander Kane, who was acquired last season. Gustav Nyquist was added to the group at the trade deadline, and the Sharks finished the season second in scoring at 3.52 goals per game. One problem: They were 21st in team defense at 3.15 goals allowed per game, with the worst team save percentage in the NHL (.889). Still, the Sharks finished 46-27-9 (101 points), second in the Pacific Division. Right behind them were the Vegas Golden Knights (43-32-7, 93 points), last season's expansion darlings who lost in the Stanley Cup Final. They upgraded in the offseason too, with free-agent center Paul Stastny and a trade for Max Pacioretty; and made an in-season blockbuster for Ottawa's Mark Stone. But inconsistent play, some expected regression and injuries to key players (including goalie Marc-Andre Fleury) left the Knights stuck in third place in the Pacific. First line: Last season's dominating top trio for Vegas -- Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith -- couldn't quite recapture the magic this season, with just a 50.65 goals-for percentage. The better line for Vegas might end up being Stone, Stastny and Pacioretty, which has played just 154 minutes together but has a goals-for percentage of 60.00 at 5-on-5. The Sharks, meanwhile, don't have a consistent top line this season. Currently, the line of Couture, Pavelski and Timo Meier (who broke out with 30 goals) might qualify. Advantage: Golden Knights Depth: The Knights return many of the supporting players who helped them thrive in the postseason last spring, including Alex Tuch (52 points), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ryan Reaves and Cody Eakin, who had a career year (41 points). The Sharks have players like Marcus Sorensen and Kevin Labanc flanking Joe Thornton, and Barclay Goodrow and Melker Karlsson among their depth players. Advantage: tie Defense: Burns (83 points in 82 games) was the league's best offensive defenseman, pumping 300 shots on goal and skating 25:06 per game for San Jose. He's skating with Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who has had an uncharacteristically down season. Karlsson (45 points in 53 games) skates with Brenden Dillon, with Joakim Ryan and Justin Braun on the final pairing. The Golden Knights return the same group as last season -- Nate Schmidt and Deryk Engelland, Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore, Nick Holden (the lone new addition) and Colin Miller -- partially because they couldn't find a way to acquire Karlsson. Advantage: Sharks Goaltending: Fleury went 35-21-5 in 61 starts with a .913 save percentage and a 2.51 goals-against average -- not as dominant as last season, but he played a critical role during some early-season struggles for the Knights. He's been lights-out in his past two postseasons. The good news for San Jose is that Martin Jones has a .926 save percentage in 42 playoff games. The bad news is that he had an .896 save percentage in the regular season, and a putrid minus-23.35 goals saved above average. Advantage: Golden Knights In The Crease Postgame analysis and highlight show airing each night throughout the season from Barry Melrose and Linda Cohn. Watch on ESPN+ Coaching: Peter DeBoer is 8-8 over the past two postseasons, following his trip to the Stanley Cup Final with the Sharks in his first season there. Gerard Gallant won the Jack Adams last season and has done a fine job helping the Knights to avoid a huge letdown in their second season of existence. Advantage: tie Health: The Sharks should be at full strength for Game 1 when Meier returns, although there will still be lingering concerns about the effectiveness of recently injured players Karlsson and Pavelski. The Golden Knights will also be at full strength, minus forward Erik Haula, who was injured late in the season. He had nine points in 20 playoff games last year. Advantage: Sharks Special teams: The Sharks had the sixth-best power play (23.6 percent) in the NHL, while the Knights struggled, finishing 25th (16.8).