Boston siphoned all the drama out of a Red Sox-Yankees race with a 30–6 midseason run that opened a 10-game gap. Since then the only theatre left in the Sox’s season has been whether they can top the 1912 team’s franchise record 105 wins, and whether Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez is their best candidate to win American League Most Valuable Player. Martinez is Boston’s resident hitting guru who might miss out on a Triple Crown season because of Betts, who held an 10-point lead in batting average with 15 games to play. But look beyond the Green Monster and you’ll find Mike Trout of the Angels, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor of the Indians, Alex Bregman of the Astros and Matt Chapman of the A’s also with MVP credentials. Indeed, drama is slathered all over the six major player awards—MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in both leagues. Rare is the season like this one when all six awards lacked a heavy favorite. If you like uncertainty, this is your year. Can Javier Baez become the first MVP with the lowest on-base percentage (.327) since another Cub, Andre Dawson, won it in 1987? How do you choose from among NL first basemen Matt Carpenter of St. Louis, Paul Goldschmidt of Arizona and Freddie Freeman of Atlanta? Is it really possible that a pitcher with a losing record, and who ranks 21st in the NL in wins, will win the Cy? Should Justin Verlander win his second Cy, Corey Kluber his third or Max Scherzer his fourth? Could the next Babe Ruth keep the Yankees from their first-ever back-to-back ROY winners? And how do you choose from statistical doppelgangers Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the NL? Ballots from selected members of the Baseball Writers Association of America are due before postseason play begins. Results are announced in November. But why wait? I’ve got answers to your questions right here. AL MVP: Mookie Betts, Red Sox Muse over the multifarious might of Mookie: Betts floats around the toughest rightfield in baseball as if on gossamer wings, runs the bases with stunning quickness, and, at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds, is the greatest pound-for-pound slugger in baseball. Betts will become the shortest player to slug over .600 since Roy Campanella in 1953 and, with two more steals and one more homer to complement his .340 batting average, will become the first 30-30 batting champion. His all-around game for the best team in the league edges him past Trout. NL MVP: Christian Yelich, Brewers In a crowded field, Yelich gets the nod over Goldschmidt, who was hitting .208 as late as June 3 and might not see October, and Nolan Arenado of Colorado. Only Goldschmidt ranks higher than Yelich in weighted On Base Average and Win Probability Added. Only Charlie Blackmon has scored more runs. Yelich has played all three outfield positions, stolen 19 bases in 23 tries, went more than one game without getting on base just once, and has been money when it mattered most: .328 off relievers, .313 in late and close spots, and .310 with runners in scoring position, including a ridiculous .440/.517/.780 slash line in two-out RISP situations. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images AL Cy Young Award: Blake Snell, Rays The shoulder injury to Chris Sale of Boston opened a door for Snell, and he came rushing through like one of his 98-mph fastballs. Only Sale had a lower ERA (1.90) and a lower OPS allowed (.572) than Snell, and Snell will own at least a 17-inning advantage in volume. Bonus points to Snell for the most unhittable pitch in baseball: he threw 274 curveballs this year low to his glove side (i.e., down and in to righties) and never allowed a hit. Batters went 0-for-55 trying to hit it. NL Cy Young Award: Jacob deGrom, Mets Cover up the freakishly misleading won-lost record (10–9), and deGrom wins clearly. At 1.70, his ERA gap over Max Scherzer (-.83) and Aaron Nola (-.75) is too big to ignore. He did so while facing 78% of his batters with the score tied or within one run—bearing a ton more stress than Scherzer (55%) or the average big league pitcher (51). Nobody in the league threw more starts of at least seven innings with two runs or fewer. AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Angels Since the award begin in 1947, only five rookies have slugged more than .590 over at least 300 plate appearances. All won the award: Bob Hamelin, Mark McGwire, Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun and Aaron Judge. Ohtani is the sixth – and, oh, yeah, he also posted a 3.31 ERA in 10 starts, becoming the first player since Ruth to hit 15 homers and pitch 50 innings. Miguel Andujar of the Yankees has the edge in volume, but Ohtani’s once-in-a-century two-way gig gives him the huge edge in WAR (3.9-1.8). NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves You’ll need spelunking gear to find separation between the two extraordinary rookie outfielders in the NL East, Acuña, 20, and Soto, 19, of Washington. Soto has slight edges in RBI, walks, batting average and OPS in what might be the greatest season in history by a teenager. Acuna gets the nod because he has more speed (more stolen bases) and power (more home runs and total bases) and is the better defender (which helps explain his edge in WAR, 4.3-2.8).<doc-sep>This is shaping up to be a great awards season, full of toss-up races with multiple legitimate contenders and decisions that came right down to the last weekend of the season. Of the eight award races I’ll break down here, I’m only 100 percent certain where I come down on two: NL Cy Young and AL Rookie of the Year, and even those featured virtuosic, paradigm-shifting performances by the likely winner. Every other award comes down to what you value in a ballplayer, and there are multiple valid interpretations. Some of these races even reveal the inadequacy of popular sabermetric tools—WAR, advanced defensive metrics, ERA estimators—to draw fine enough distinctions between two players. On the whole, this looks like the most difficult and interesting awards season in recent memory. AL MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels This is the toughest race on the board, because for all practical purposes there is zero separation between Trout and Mookie Betts. The competition between Aaron Judge and José Altuve was close last year, but there’s a substantial stylistic difference between Altuve and Judge that, at least in my mind, broke the tie—Altuve is a more athletic player and proactive hitter who impacts more facets of the game. Betts and Trout, however, are extremely similar. They’re both right-handed power hitters who also contribute defensively and on the base paths. Trout is first and Betts is second in the omnibus batting metric at all three major statistical sites—FanGraphs (wRC+), Baseball Prospectus (TAv), and Baseball-Reference (OPS+). Trout has a higher OBP, while Betts has a higher SLG, and either way, they’re 1-2 in both categories. Betts put together a 30-30 season, but Trout has seven more home runs and only six fewer stolen bases, with a better success rate. I fully expect Betts to win the actual award for two reasons. The first is that his Red Sox have the best record in baseball, not only this year but in any year since 2001, while Trout’s Angels are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. I don’t think that ought to matter, but it will to some voters, and the case is close enough on merit that their respective records might make a difference. The second reason is that it’s just Betts’s time. Trout’s already won two MVP awards, and has already edged out Betts once—in 2016, when Betts had a better narrative case and had put up a historic season himself. Sometimes we just get tired of voting for the same guy over and over—it happened to Albert Pujols, it happened to Barry Bonds, it happened to Mickey Mantle, and it’ll happen to Trout. In 2015, Trout finished second to Josh Donaldson in MVP voting under very similar circumstances; Trout ended up in a statistical dead heat with a similar player who played on a better team and had never won the MVP award before. Even so, I’d vote for Trout because of one very small difference in their respective statistical profiles. All three sites grade Trout out as a better hitter, but all three grade Betts out as a more valuable defensive player, despite Trout playing a more difficult position. FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference’s WAR metrics have that defensive difference as big enough for Betts to overtake Trout in overall value. The problem with that is both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs use zone-based defensive data, which has always thrown up weird results for corner outfielders—particularly in oddly shaped ballparks like Minute Maid Park and Fenway Park. Those numbers have become particularly imprecise in the age of extreme defensive shifts. Moreover, while Betts is an exceptional defensive corner outfielder by any standard, he’d probably be playing center field on a team that didn’t also feature Jackie Bradley Jr., one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. I don’t know whether Betts would be a better defensive center fielder than Trout or how Trout would handle right field in Fenway. I certainly don’t know that Betts is the better part of a win more valuable as a right fielder than Trout is as a center fielder, even after factoring in a positional adjustment to account for the lower offensive baseline among center fielders. Given that Trout’s offensive numbers are better than Betts’s—if only slightly—I’m not comfortable overturning that margin based on defensive metrics that are running into serious methodological problems. With that said, the margin between Trout and Betts is vanishingly small either way. If Betts wins, as I suspect he will, it will be a richly deserved honor and a totally defensible voting outcome. NL MVP: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets This has been an exceptionally weird year for the distribution of hitting versus pitching talent between the two leagues. Essentially, all the elite starting pitchers are in the National League, and all the elite position players are in the American League. If I were dictator of the world, I’d give out two AL MVP awards and two NL Cy Young awards and be done with it. But unfortunately, we’re left to grapple with a tight two-man race for AL MVP, a weird position player–versus-pitcher debate in the NL MVP race, and poor Max Scherzer, who, despite being better this year than when he won the NL Cy Young in 2016, is going home with nothing. By any reasonable standard, deGrom has been the best player in the National League this year. He topped the leaderboard in all three WAR formulae, and according to FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, he had huge gaps over the best position player in the NL, Christian Yelich. It was as big as 2.7 wins in B-Ref’s case, and even Baseball Prospectus had deGrom ahead of Yelich by more than half a win. Baseball-Reference had Aaron Nola over deGrom in pitcher WAR, but thanks to deGrom’s edge in defense and hitting, deGrom edged out Nola overall. In fact, deGrom, a former college shortstop, hit .164/.211/.179 while holding opposing batters to a .196/.244/.277 batting line. For comparison, Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, who put up one of the worst position-player seasons in recent memory this year, hit .168/.243/.296.<doc-sep>The Atlanta Braves won the NL East. Blake Treinen became an unhittable monster. Corey Seager didn't make it to May ... but Max Muncy became a star. The 2018 season brought us tons of surprises. But when it comes to the game's top performers, you'll still find many of the game's brightest stars vying for postseason hardware. The question is, did they do enough to come out on top? Let's take a stroll through the three major awards in each league: Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. (We're omitting Manager of the Year, because I have a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for NL MOY and thus can't reveal my picks. OK fine, I'm voting for Connie Mack.) Onward! National League Most Valuable Player 10. Lorenzo Cain 9. Anthony Rendon 8. Freddie Freeman 7. Matt Carpenter 6. Javier Baez 5. Paul Goldschmidt 4. Aaron Nola 3. Christian Yelich 2. Max Scherzer 1. Jacob deGrom One theory that has long circulated in certain circles is that pitchers shouldn't win MVP awards, because the Cy Young award is meant to recognize the league's best pitcher, while MVP is reserved for position players. The problem with this theory is that there's absolutely nothing in the BBWAA voting instructions that says anything of the sort. Absent that guidance, I believe that the most valuable player in the league should include players of all stripes, including pitchers. Another theory that has long held sway is that the league's most valuable player must come from a winning team, specifically a playoff team. The cynical argument supporting that claim is that Team X finished third (or fourth, or last) with Player X, so what difference would it have made if that team went the whole season without that player. The problem with that theory is that baseball is the least team-oriented of the big four North American sports, with the game boiling down to individual battles between pitchers and hitters. If even the best baseball players can't do all that much to make their teammates better (the way, say, LeBron James can control the entire game by having the ball in his hands), then the best we can do is to give the MVP award to the player who had the best season, irrespective of his team's record. Otherwise, the MVP award becomes a proxy for the General Manager of the Year award, since there's not much a superstar player can do if his bosses give him a bunch of crappy teammates. All this is to say, Jacob deGrom posted better numbers than anyone in the National League, position player or pitcher. He was a metronome of consistent greatness, setting all-time records for the most consecutive quality starts and the most consecutive starts allowing three runs or fewer, while also flashing a microscopic 1.70 ERA, plus the peripheral stats to back it all up. Max Scherzer was both the second-best pitcher and second-best overall player in the league, so he finishes second on my ballot. The Nationals being wildly disappointing and the Mets being the Mets should have no bearing on how voters vote. American League Most Valuable Player 10. Mitch Haniger 9. Andrelton Simmons 8. Justin Verlander 7. J.D. Martinez 6. Matt Chapman 5. Francisco Lindor 4. Alex Bregman 3. Jose Ramirez 2. Mookie Betts 1. Mike Trout Every year, we figure that Mike Trout has shown us his best. How else could we describe a player whose "Similar Batters through Age 25" list on Baseball Reference is topped by inner-circle Hall of Famers Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron? But then there's this: MIKE TROUT YEAR-BY-YEAR YEAR AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ 2012 .326/.399/.564 167 2013 .323/.432/.557 176 2014 .287/.377/.561 167 2015 .299/.402/.590 171 2016 .315/.441/.550 170 2017 .306/.442/.629 181 2018 .313/.462/.629 192 wRC+ is an offensive stat that measures everything a player does with the bat, adjusts for home-park effects, then spits out a score calibrated to 100; 120 means a player hit 20 percent better than league average, 140 means a player hit 40 percent better than league average and so on. Trout might not make quite as many ludicrous catches nor swipe as many bases as he used to, but he's somehow still improving as a hitter. In the past 50 years, only 11 other hitters have fared better by park-adjusted offense (Barry Bonds did it six times, because Barry Bonds is the best player in baseball history). All of this is a long way of saying that while Mookie Betts is an incredible player enjoying one of the best seasons in major-league history (for one of the best teams in major-league history), Trout has actually hit slightly better, while playing a more challenging defensive position (which also takes nothing away from Betts, who has been the best defensive right fielder in the majors for three years running). Call it 1 and 1A if you like, with Trout getting the final edge by the slimmest of margins. National League Cy Young 5. German Marquez 4. Patrick Corbin 3. Aaron Nola 2. Max Scherzer 1. Jacob deGrom On Tuesday, Scherzer became the first right-handed pitcher in 16 years to bank 300 strikeouts in a season ... and he still wasn't the best pitcher in the league. This was one really tough year to win awards. While we're here, a mile-high tip of the cap to starters German Marquez and Kyle Freeland, the young co-aces who have the Rockies one weekend away from shocking the baseball world to win the NL West despite the team's lackluster offense. We have now had two straight years of evidence that you can in fact develop quality pitching at mile-high altitudes, and that Colorado can in fact thrive through top-notch scouting and development of talented arms. American League Cy Young 5. Blake Snell 4. Gerrit Cole 3. Trevor Bauer 2. Chris Sale 1. Justin Verlander Another very close race, with Verlander getting the nod for returning to his old ace status in Houston.<doc-sep>Final 2018 MLB Awards Race Odds for MVP, Cy Young, ROY and More 0 of 8 Maddie Meyer/Getty Images As it turns out, 162 games weren't enough to settle the 2018 MLB season. The races in both the National League West and NL Central required an extra game, as the Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers jostled for postseason positions. The Brewers and Dodgers prevailed. The Cubs and Rockies are headed for the do-or-die NL Wild Card Game on Tuesday. As we await further action, here are the final awards-race odds for both leagues, generated by Bleacher Report—meaning Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP. AL Manager of the Year 1 of 8 Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images Bob Melvin (OAK): 1-1 Kevin Cash (TBR): 3-1 Alex Cora (BOS): 13-1 A.J. Hinch (HOU): 13-1 Aaron Boone (NYY): 13-1 Manager of the Year honors tend to go to the skipper whose team overachieved the most. And no one's squad overachieved more than Bob Melvin's Oakland Athletics in 2018. A presumed small-market afterthought, the A's snagged the Junior Circuit's second wild-card slot and have a win-or-go-home date with the New York Yankees in the Bronx on Wednesday night. The Tampa Bay Rays' Kevin Cash is an interesting dark horse, as he led his little-regarded club to a 90-72 finish after it sold at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox's Alex Cora, Houston Astros' A.J. Hinch and the Yankees' Aaron Boone will pick up stray votes, but this is Melvin's prize to lose. NL Manager of the Year 2 of 8 John Bazemore/Associated Press Brian Snitker (ATL): 1-1 Bud Black (COL): 3-1 Craig Counsell (MIL): 3-1 Bud Black and Craig Counsell will garner attention for shepherding the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers into the postseason. But NL MOY honors will likely go to the Atlanta Braves' Brian Snitker, in keeping with the overachieving theme. The Braves are blessed with bushels of young talent but were supposed to be a year or more away from serious contention. Instead, they won the NL East outright over the favored Washington Nationals and fellow upstart Philadelphia Phillies. In his second full season at the helm, Snitker should get his due credit. AL Rookie of the Year 3 of 8 Masterpress/Getty Images Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 1-1 Miguel Andujar (NYY): 2-1 Gleyber Torres (NYY): 10-1 Shohei Ohtani's first MLB campaign has been a thrilling roller coaster. After a rough spring, he burst into the regular season as a fully formed two-way star. A balky elbow that will require Tommy John surgery derailed his pitching career, but he stuck around as a hitter and finished with 22 home runs and a .925 OPS to go along with a 3.31 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. Durability concerns aside, Ohtani is too unique of a talent to not be the front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year honors. His chief competition comes from a pair of Yankees infielders: Miguel Andujar (.297 AVG, .855 OPS, 27 HR) and Gleyber Torres (.271 AVG, .820 OPS, 24 HR). They'll grab most of the non-Ohtani vote—especially Andujar—but the generational Japanese sensation should snag this prize. NL Rookie of the Year 4 of 8 Lynne Sladky/Associated Press Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL): 1-1 Juan Soto (WAS): 3-1 Harrison Bader (STL): 12-1 Jack Flaherty (STL): 12-1 As mentioned, the Braves have blossomed ahead of schedule and won the NL East behind a burgeoning young core. That core is exemplified by outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. The 20-year-old owns a .293/.366/.552 slash line with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, and he could garner stray MVP votes. He has competition from 19-year-old Nationals rookie Juan Soto (.292/.406/.517, 22 HR). But the fact that Acuna's Braves are charging into October while Soto's Nats stay home should tip the scales. Oh, and a cap tip to the St. Louis Cardinals' duo of outfielder Harrison Bader and right-hander Jack Flaherty, who warrant mention but haven't matched the hype of Soto or Acuna. AL Cy Young Award 5 of 8 Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images Blake Snell (TBR): 3-2 Justin Verlander (HOU): 4-1 Corey Kluber (CLE): 4-1 Chris Sale (BOS): 4-1 Blake Snell paces the AL with a 1.89 ERA. He's struck out 221 in 180.2 innings and owns a 21-5 record, if that's worth anything these days. He's the poster boy for the shockingly good underdog Rays. The Tampa Bay southpaw has competition from the Astros' Justin Verlander (2.52 ERA, 214 IP, 290 SO), the Red Sox's Chris Sale (2.11 ERA, 158 IP, 237 SO) and the Cleveland Indians' Corey Kluber (2.89 ERA, 215 IP, 222 SO). That's a trio of decorated studs with impressive track records and multiple Cy Youngs between them. They could be measured against their past excellence, however, whereas Snell has that intoxicating new-ace smell. NL Cy Young Award 6 of 8 Scott Taetsch/Getty Images Jacob deGrom (NYM): 1-1 Max Scherzer (WAS): 3-2 Aaron Nola (PHI): 9-1 The Senior Circuit Cy Young chase features three NL East arms whose clubs whiffed on the postseason. There's New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom, who led both leagues with a 1.70 ERA while striking out 269 in 217 innings. There's three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, who led baseball with 330 strikeouts and posted a 2.53 ERA for the Nationals. Lagging behind that pair but still worth mentioning: Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola (2.34 ERA, 224 SO, 212.1 IP). DeGrom has the edge for winning the ERA crown and amassing the highest WAR total, according to FanGraphs' measure (8.8 to Scherzer's 7.2). But don't be shocked if Mad Max adds another piece of hardware to his trophy case. AL MVP 7 of 8 Charles Krupa/Associated Press Mookie Betts (BOS): 3-2 J.D. Martinez (BOS): 3-1 Francisco Lindor (CLE): 8-1 Jose Ramirez (CLE): 8-1 Mike Trout (LAA): 8-1 The AL MVP race comes down to a pair of Red Sox. Mookie Betts led both leagues with a .346 average, clubbed 32 home runs and paced baseball with 10.2 WAR. His teammate J.D.<doc-sep>
The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) will announce the winners major awards this week, starting with Rookie of the Year on Monday, Manager of the Year on Tuesday, Cy Young on Wednesday and Most Valuable Player on Thursday. As a reminder, voting for the major awards takes place after the end of the regular season but before the start of the postseason. These are regular season awards only. Here are the finalists for each award. In an effort to gauge the various awards races, our five CBS Sports MLB scribes (R.J. Anderson, Katherine Acquavella, Mike Axisa, Dayn Perry, Matt Snyder) each cast a hypothetical ballot for each award. Our rules: Our individual ballots for each award were only three players deep. In reality, the MVP ballot is 10 players deep and the Cy Young ballot is five players deep. Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year each include three slots. The scoring system: Three points for a first place vote, two points for a second place vote, and one point for a third place vote. Most points wins. Nice and easy. Below are our voting results as well as a short blurb on the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races. Away we go ... AL MVP candidates 1st 2nd 3rd Points Mookie Betts, Red Sox 5 -- -- 15 Mike Trout, Angels -- 3 2 8 Jose Ramirez, Indians -- 2 2 6 Alex Bregman, Astros -- -- 1 1 It's a usual suspects kind of race for the most part. Mookie Betts is likely the front-runner, and he's finished in the top six of the balloting in each of last two seasons. Mike Trout is of course a two-time winner who in a full season has never finished worse than fourth. Then there's Jose Ramirez, who finished third in the vote in 2017 and has been even better this year. Dark horse? It's probably Alex Bregman. J.D. Martinez will also finish in the top five on account of the raw volume of his offensive outputs, and Francisco Lindor's offense-defense combo makes him a viable candidate. Right now, Betts seems to have the momentum behind his candidacy. NL MVP Candidates 1st 2nd 3rd Points Christian Yelich, Brewers 3 2 -- 13 Javier Baez, Cubs -- 3 2 8 Jacob deGrom, Mets 2 -- -- 6 Lorenzo Cain, Brewers -- -- 1 1 Matt Carpenter, Cardinals -- -- 1 1 Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks -- -- 1 1 What a wonderful mess this one is. There's no standout position player candidate in the NL, but that's not the same as saying there are no good candidates in the NL. Right now, you can plausible cases for Christian Yelich, Javier Baez, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Lorenzo Cain, among position players. Given that none of those many names is an obvious choice, Jacob deGrom and his historic 1.70 ERA prominently enter the discussion. deGrom's had a legendary season (provided you wisely look past his win-loss record), and in terms of overall value he's at worst on par with the names above. The question is whether the "MVP is for position players" mindset, which is certainly justifiable to a degree, is enough to push deGrom down the ballot. The final vote tallies on this race will probably be the most interesting of awards season. Blake Snell AL Cy Young AL Cy Young candidates 1st 2nd 3rd Points Blake Snell, Rays 2 3 -- 12 Chris Sale, Red Sox 2 2 1 11 Justin Verlander, Astros 1 -- 2 4 Trevor Bauer, Indians -- -- 1 1 Corey Kluber, Indians -- -- 1 1 This is an interesting one, because the three contenders here with the best run prevention all have workload issues. Chris Sale has a 2.11 ERA in 158 innings (not even qualified for the ERA title! ), Blake Snell has a 1.90 ERA in 175 2/3 innings and Trevor Bauer has a 2.26 ERA in 171 1/3 innings. The best candidate with a big workload is Justin Verlander, who sits at a 2.60 ERA. After that, we'd be looking at Gerrit Cole (2.92 ERA in 194 1/3 innings) and Corey Kluber (2.83 ERA in 210 innings). Obviously, there is much more to the award than simply looking at ERA, but we're simply pointing out how tough a task the voters have in weighing what matters the most here.