Q. Based on which of these things people vote for a party? A: Q. What do they think of the election manifesto of BJP and Congress? A. Q. Who will be the next Prime Minister? A. Q. Who will the next chief minister of ? A. Campaigning for Lok Sabha elections is going on all over the country in full swing. The Samayam Tamil website is organizing polls for the second time to know public opinion ahead of the voting day. Here's what Samayam Tamil readers think:1. Election manifesto2. Party3. Symbol4. LeaderForty seven per cent people said the leader serves as the brain of the party, hence they vote by giving preference to the leader. 25 per cent people see election manifesto and 26 per cent said they vote for the everlasting symbol of the party.Forty two per cent of the people said that election manifesto of both the Congress and BJP are not up to the mark. 60 per cent of the people appreciated the proposed scheme of Congress, which announced the yearly aide of Rs 72,000 for the needy.Forty seven per cent people said that Rahul Gandhi will become the next Prime minister, whereas 41 per cent favored Modi. 12 per cent people hoped that a third alliance would be formed and a new PM should be elected.Fifty five per cent people said that M K Stalin will become the next chief minister of Tamil Nadu and 26 per cent supported Edappadi Palaniswami. 10 per cent people vouched for TTV Dinakaran and 9 per cent supported O Panneerselvam.<doc-sep>CHENNAI: The DMK and its allies are likely to win 27 to 33 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry while the AIADMK may get three to five seats and T T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK is likely to win in two constituencies, according to a survey published by the Culture and Communication Centre, an NGO.Interestingly, the survey predicts a tough fight for sitting MP and PMK leader Anbumani Ramadoss in Dharmapuri and for DMK strongman Duraimuruguan’s son Kathir Anand, who is facing A C Shanmugam from the AIADMK alliance in Vellore.It also predicts that the AMMK would win in Theni constituency where AIADMK coordinator O Panneerselvam’s son, Ravindranath Kumar, is contesting the elections.The survey predicts victory of DMK candidates in 11 constituencies in the by-polls, while AMMK and AIADMK would get three to four seats each.A 47-member team conducted the survey in all the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu and the lone constituency in Puducherry from March 15 to April 3.“The survey report is based on a questionnaire. A total of 21,644 people, majority of men, have participated in the survey. We have framed issue, leadership and ideology-based questions to get the view of the people,” coordinator of centre C Thirunavukarasu said on Friday.They NGO has been conducting similar surveys since 2004 elections.On the performance of the Narendra Modi government, 87% of the participants expressed dissatisfaction over the Centre. Around 90% of the youngsters in Tamil Nadu were not happy with BJP government at the Centre, while only 4% expressed satisfaction over the central government and 6% refused to comment, according to the survey report.On the question who would be the better CM candidate in the present political scenario, 31% said DMK leader M K Stalin while 22% of the participants said EPS-OPS and 20% said Dhinakaran would be a better choice.MNM chief Kamal Haasan (7%) is seen as a far better candidate than superstar Rajinikanth (4%). Anbumani (2%) is falling behind Naam Thamizhar Katchi leader Seeman (5%).Who would be the next PM? The survey says that 35.75% participants opted for Congress president Rahul Gandhi as against 27.9% for Modi.The survey says that unemployment, GST, new education policy, Cauvery management board, lynching, NEET and fuel prices would be the key issues that affect the prospect of the BJP in the elections.<doc-sep>With just days to go before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Republic Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll has presented a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states. In Tamil Nadu, which has 39 seats, the UPA consists of its old partner DMK and NDA has its current ally AIADMK joining hands. Republic Bharat -Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has projected a range of data in terms of seat share and vote share on the chances of the political parties set to contest the polls. WATCH | After Rs 11 Crore Cash Haul In Tamil Nadu's Vellore, EC Flying Squad Seizes Rs 3.47 Crore In Dharmapuri Below are the projections for Tamil Nadu: The seat-share projections for 39 constituencies of the state are as below: The NDA is projected to win 20-21 seats while the UPA is projected to win 18-19 seats. NDA: 20-21 UPA: 18-19 Of this - BJP 3-4 SEATS INC 3 SEATS The vote-share projections are as follows: NDA: 44% UPA: 40% READ | Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Voting Dates In Tamil Nadu: Here'S When You Can Vote In Tamil Nadu For Each Constituency And Phase Methodology: R. Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to all states and constituencies involving indigenously built Probability Map of Outcome Prediction Model covering representative samples across demography, and caste. The essence of the methodology is groundwork and proven track record with maximum accuracy to the right trend. The Opinion poll was held between February 1 and April 2 The Lok Sabha polls begin on April 11 will continue till May 19 and the counting will take place on May 23.<doc-sep>Tamil Nadu is very important in the 2019 general elections. It elects 39 MPs to Parliament and TN chief ministers have played kingmakers in Delhi more than once. All 39 constituencies vote on a single day - April 18. It will be the first election without the towering presence of bitter rivals J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi. It is widely known that political awareness is quite high in Tamil Nadu. In a survey by Twitter India’s #Powerof18 youth engagement initiative, nearly 98% of Tamil Nadu’s youth said that they will vote in the upcoming elections. The Hindu claimed that was an indication that Tamil Nadu had the highest proportion of youth voter interest compared to other states in the country. It reported that more than 8.98 lakh voters between the ages of 18 and 19 have been included on the electoral rolls from Tamil Nadu as of January 31. Home to around 70 million Indians, Tamil Nadu has mostly careened between two shades of Dravidianism - the DMK, or Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the AIADMK, or All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - for several decades, and neither party has won consecutive elections in that time. That’s right, for 34 years, every government has been voted out. One could perhaps be forgiven for thinking that it’s the people of the state that dangle the carrot for politicians who sway to public whims. Tamil Nadu is a state where hero (and heroine-) worshipping has assumed dimensions well beyond the 2D of the silver screen. CN Annadurai and M Karunanidhi were both successful screenwriters who, with just as much success if not more, translated their messaging in films into political messaging for the voter. MG Ramachandran played many a character with an explicit political message, and turned that experience into being real life politician. J Jayalalitha, his protege, followed suit. And now we have Kamal Haasan and Rajnikanth in the fray. The money spent in Tamil Nadu on elections has also been a huge talking point, what with the state being the poster child of election season doles. The cash seized by the Election Commission of India's expenditure observers saw record levels in the last elections, with more than 150 crore rupees seized from just Tamil Nadu. Whatever the case may be, Tamil Nadu politics can be maddening and fascinating at the same time. Pundits and psephologists are desperate to spot a trend - any trend - that indicates what this politically aware but unforgiving electorate has in mind for May 2019. A brief history of Tamil Nadu politics “The time has come,” the walrus said, "to talk of many things: Of shoes and ships - and sealing wax - of cabbages and kings.” - Lewis Carroll Tamil Nadu is a place where the usual rules don’t apply in the sphere of politics. In a country where leaders of every hue promise utopian futures, the great land of the Tamils goes a step further, giving the lie to the fatuous claims of our politicians. Or, you know, they bought into the evocative oratory of their leaders entirely, but only ended up revealing the futility of following political leaders with implicit trust. To paraphrase a slice of modern wisdom, if the service is free, you are the product. What I’m getting at is, Tamil Nadu is equal parts brilliant and puzzling, rational and absurd. A strident atheism drives the politics of a land steeped in unapologetic religiosity; movie stars can transcend Tamil identity politics and inexplicably find success in politics; and freebies like TVs and laptops are a regular feature as politicians attempt to swing votes in one of the most urbanised and productive states in India. Tamil Nadu has no use for the big Amazon and Flipkart sales, apparently. Also, actor Kamal Hassan’s party Makkal Needhi Maiam has thrown its hat into the ring, hoping to make a start in electoral politics. Which is fitting. Salvador Dali, an artist Hassan admires ardently, once said, “It is not necessary for the public to know whether I am joking or whether I am serious, just as it is not necessary for me to know it myself.” Or what Kurt Vonnegut Jr once said, "We are what we pretend to be, so it is important to know what we pretend to be." You do you, Kamal Haasan. There was a time, not too long ago, when Tamil Nadu seemed a frontier too far for national parties. The Congress party, despite regularly finding stalwarts from that state in its upper echelons (Kamraj, Chidambaram etc. ), never amounted to much in TN’s political landscape. The BJP? Well, for a Hindu party, they were utterly non-existent in a state where the culture is inextricably interwoven with its Hindu origins. The reason for that is, in the main, the Dravidian movement. That movement, essentially the outcome of the Aryan InvasionTheory and a repudiation of Hinduism distilled into politics, is still proclaimed the primary driving force in Tamil Nadu, 46 years after Periyar’s death. The saffron party is viewed, at least according to political rhetoric, as a clique of upper caste Aryans seeking to impose their will over Tamilians with their wily machinations. Though, to be fair, machinations do have to be wily if they are to have any chance of succeeding. However, contrary to this mainstream narrative, it required more than promises of righting historical wrongs to win elections. C Lakshmanan, associate professor, Madras Institute of Development Studies, Chennai, told Quartz in 2016, “The freebie culture in Tamil Nadu dates back to the 1960s when C Annadurai announced a kilogram of rice for Re1. Subsequently, the DMK government under Karunanidhi gave free spectacles, cycle rickshaws. Even the MG Ramachandran government offered free dhotis and sandals to woo voters.” Quartz reported that in 2016 the DMK promised free smartphones, 3G/4G connections, and loan waivers, besides complete prohibition. The AIADMK has been no different. In 2011, it doled out free laptops and television sets. Jayalalithaa’s government also set up a string of government-run facilities such as eateries and pharmacies that gave away subsidised food and medicines.<doc-sep>
Opinion polls predict comfortable win for DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu While Puthiya Thalaimurai and Times Now gave the DMK over 30 seats in Tamil Nadu, Thanthi TV's poll predictions varied a bit. news Lok Sabha 2019 With less than ten days for Tamil Nadu to go to polls, media houses are busy publishing the results of the opinion polls. According to various opinion polls published by news channels, DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu is predicted to win a majority of seats (more than 30) in the general elections. Puthiya Thalaimurai, a Tamil news channel, has predicted that the DMK-Congress alliance will gain over 30 seats out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu. For its opinion polls, Puthiya Thalaimurai-APT conducted the survey across 20 constituencies across the state between March 22 and April 2. Of the respondents to the survey, 64.87 per cent were men, 34.92 per cent were women and 0.21 per cent belonged to the third gender. Of the respondents, almost 42 per cent said that they would vote for the DMK-led alliance while 27 per cent said they would vote for the alliance led by the AIADMK. Puthiya Thalaimurai is owned by TR Pachamuthu, who is contesting as part of the DMK alliance. Performance of PM Modi- PTTV- APT survey For the purposes of the survey, Tamil Nadu was divided into five zones based on the geographical location of the constituencies. The survey pegged broad questions like the voter preference for a second term for PM Modi-led government at the centre and issues that could determine the outcome of the general elections. Fifty-five per cent of those who responded to the survey said that Narendra Modi's performance as the Prime Minister of the country over the past five years has been bad. While 14 per cent of the respondents said they were satisfied with his performance, 10 per cent of the respondents said the tenure was good. Biggest factor which could influence elections The respondents chose unemployment and farmers' issues to be the biggest factors that could decide the outcome of the general elections. While 36.11 per cent of the respondents chose unemployment factor, 25.70 per cent picked farmers'issues to be the issues that would assume precedence this poll season. The other factors included NEET, Sterlite, labourers issues, corruption and hydrocarbon. Eight per cent of respondents refused to offer a comment for this question. Rahul Gandhi vs Narendra Modi The survey said that more than 50 per cent of the respondents preferred Congress President Rahul Gandhi to be the next Prime Minister of the country while only 22 per cent wanted Narendra Modi back on the Prime Ministerial chair. Around 13 per cent answered that they don't know whom they preferred and 10 per cent of the respondents said that they wanted persons other than Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister of India. Similarly, more than 70 per cent of the survey respondents said that they wanted to see a new government at the centre and 21 per cent said that they wanted a government led by Prime Minister Modi back at the centre this time. Other polls Thanthi TV has given the DMK alliance a clear lead in 10 Lok Sabha constituencies. According to Thanthi TV's survey conducted in collaboration with Krish Info Media, the constituencies in which DMK has a clear lead include the ones where its senior leaders are contesting from like Nilgiris (A Raja), Thoothukudi (Kanimozhi Karunanidhi), Chennai - Central (Dayanidhi Maran), Chennai- North (Kalanithi Veerasamy), Sriperumbudur (TR Baalu) and Trichy (S Thirunavukkarasar, Congress). AIADMK has clear lead in one constituency Tiruppur as per the TV channel's opinion poll. Apart from the above, while the DMK is expected to have a slight lead over its rivals in 13 seats, the AIADMK is expected to have a slight edge over DMK in seven seats excluding Puducherry. The fight is expected to be neck and neck in eight seats including Dharmapuri and Madurai. Times Now-VMR survey, meanwhile, has predicted 33 seats to the UPA in Tamil Nadu and six seats to the NDA.