The Milwaukee Bucks are hosting the Houston Rockets Tuesday night, which gives us the rare treat of watching the leading Most Valuable Player candidates square off in a much-anticipated showdown. Thank you, schedule gods, for making this happen. In their own ways, Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden have been equally dominant. Antetokounmpo serves as the linchpin on both ends of the floor of the best team in the league, while Harden is pure offensive firepower distilled for the modern age. Each would make a worthy MVP. In early March, I devoted an entire Sunday Shootaround to assessing Harden’s candidacy. My conclusion then was that while Harden’s season was undeniably amazing, the MVP was still Antetokounmpo’s to lose more than Harden’s to win. Then Harden went into overdrive, with a 57-point outburst against Memphis followed by 61 against the Spurs two nights later. For the first time, really, I’m on the fence. At the end of the day, the MVP debate is a contest about value and each voter interprets that word differently. These are my parameters. The numbers, unfortunately, offer little clarity. Let’s do the Player A, Player B thing, using publicly available all-in-one metrics without context. Please note that this is a terrible way to pick an MVP, but we’re doing this for illustrative purposes. (Numbers via Basketball-Reference.) Player A: 30.7 PER; 13.4 Win Shares; .293 WS/48; 7.2 VORP 30.7 PER; 13.4 Win Shares; .293 WS/48; 7.2 VORP Player B: 30.4 PER; 13.3 Win Shares; .245 WS/48; 8.8 VORP Those numbers without context don’t do a lot for the imagination, but what they tell us is that both players have been statistically dominant. It’s also worth mentioning that the analytics people who work in front offices tend to scoff at the publicly available all-in-1 metrics as being insufficient at best and misleading at worst. What those numbers often provide are clues, and the sheer mass of metrics tend to point the arrow in one obvious direction during an MVP debate. No luck here. There’s not much separation at all. Player A is Antetokounmpo, by the way, and Harden is Player B. That becomes obvious when we look at their traditional numbers. Antetokounmpo: 27.4 ppg; 12.6 rpg; 6 apg; .644 True Shooting Percentage 27.4 ppg; 12.6 rpg; 6 apg; .644 True Shooting Percentage Harden: 36.4 ppg; 6.4 rpg; 7.5 apg; .613 True Shooting Percentage When both players’ numbers are so overwhelming, it’s hard to make a case that either’s stat line stands out from the other. Of interest is that while Harden’s scoring is off the charts, Antetokounmpo’s shooting efficiency is even better than Harden’s despite being a subpar 3-point shooter and a below-average free throw shooter. Harden may have broken math this season, but Antetokounmpo has proven to be the exception to the accepted parameters of modern offense: shoot lots of 3’s, layups/dunks, and free throws. Antetokounmpo truly excels at only one of those facets, which makes his efficiency all the more remarkable. So, we’re back to that value proposition. What’s important to you? The subjective measure of objective team success. The Bucks are the best regular-season team in the league, and it’s not really close. They have the best record, the best defense, the third-best offense, and the best point differential. Milwaukee is so good that they’ve been routinely blowing teams out all season. As NBC Sports’ Tom Haberstroh pointed out, the Bucks have 42 wins of 10 points or more, by far the most in the league. The sheer amount of blowouts have limited Antetokounmpo’s minutes. He averages under 33 a night, or exactly 400 fewer than Harden has played this season. Given Harden’s 37-minute a night workload, that comes out to almost 11 fewer games. Wild. It seems counterintuitive to blame Antetokounmpo for being part of a superior team. He’s the reason the Bucks are so good, after all. Just as it’s not fair to penalize Antetokounmpo for playing on a superior team, it’s also not kosher to knock Harden simply for playing on an inferior one. After a dreadful start, the Rockets are on track to win 52 games and secure a top-3 seed in the West. That’s an excellent season worthy of an MVP candidate. Surely Harden deserves credit for having to work harder to earn positive team results, and for maintaining that pace throughout the season. There’s a tricky question here: where would these teams be without their superstar? Take Harden out of the equation and the Rockets would be scuffling to make the postseason. Remove Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks are a 45-win team. It’s far more illustrative to consider what they are, rather than what they are not. The Rockets are a good team, made dangerous by Harden. The Bucks are a decent team that’s become a great one as Antetokounmpo continues to evolve. The hardest thing to do in this league is win games consistently and no one has done that better than Milwaukee. That also has to factor into the equation. How much does defense matter? We have all heard that Harden has improved on the defensive end. Sure, he has lapses, but he’s been more engaged on that end, and the Rockets will tell you that his ability to hold his own defending post-ups is a vital component of their switch-everything scheme. Harden also leads the league in steals, an important stat for a player who is often at a disadvantage defensively. He plays the scheme, does asked of him, and contributes on that end. Of course, Harden isn’t in the game for his defense. When Harden’s on the floor, the Rockets give up 110.7 points per 100 possessions, for a defense that ranks 21st in the league. When he’s on the bench, Houston’s defense ramps up considerably, allowing just 103.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s a significant swing, but also indicative of a team designed to maximize Harden’s offensive game and minimize the damage when he’s on the bench. Harden’s defense doesn’t disqualify him for the MVP the way it may have a few years ago, but he sure as hell isn’t Antetokounmpo on that end of the floor.<doc-sep>Fans were probably expecting more than 42 points combined from Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden. (Getty Images) In a clash of the two top contenders for NBA MVP this season, the debate didn’t get any easier on Tuesday. For the second time this season, the Milwaukee Bucks and Houston Rockets met on the court. It was a duel headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo, the absurdly athletic wing who’s powering the Bucks to the top of the NBA standings, and James Harden, the reigning MVP who is topping last season’s performance by averaging more than 36 points per game. On Tuesday, it was Antetokounmpo and the Bucks who came out on top 108-94, though neither player didn’t exactly set the world on fire. Bucks shut down James Harden and the Rockets After a competitive first half, the Bucks ran away with the game and there wasn’t much Harden could do to stop them. Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe defended Harden as well as anyone has all season, holding the star to 23 points on 9-of-26 shooting and 1-of-9 from deep. More tellingly, he picked up just one personal foul while guarding one of the biggest foul magnets in NBA history. With Harden limited, the Rockets posted just 94 points, one of their 10 lowest scores of the season. That defensive performance was highlighted by this emphatic block from behind. While Harden had a tough night at the office, Antetokounmpo didn’t fare much better on the stat sheet. The Greek Freak finished with 19 points on 7-of-15 shooting, 14 rebounds and four assists. So it wasn’t really an MVP-worthy night for either player, moreso with Harden. That won’t make the decision for MVP any easier, as both players are still posting incredible numbers. Really, the game was more a showcase for Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast, even though the team was missing Nikola Mirotic and Malcolm Brogdon. Bledsoe in particular showed up with 23 points and seven assists along with his defense. Story continues However, that supporting cast also received yet another tough blow. Bucks lose Donte DiVincenzo for the year The Bucks might have won their 56th game of the season, but they also lost a piece of their depth in rookie Donte DiVincenzo on Tuesday. The 17th overall pick in last year’s draft will miss the rest of the season with bilateral heel bursitis in his left foot, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. ESPN sources with @malika_andrews: In another blow to the roster depth of the NBA’s best regular season team, Milwaukee Bucks guard Donte DiVincenzo will be lost for the rest of the season with bilateral heel bursitis in his left foot. — Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 27, 2019 While DiVincenco only averaged 4.9 points per game this season, he was also part of the team’s plan to fill the hole left by Malcolm Brogdon’s injury. The Bucks’ starting shooting guard is out until at least the first round of the playoffs with a foot injury, and now the team has to turn to Pat Connaughton for more minutes at guard. That plan went well on Tuesday at least, as Connaughton posted 14 points on just five shots with seven rebounds and four assists. More from Yahoo Sports:<doc-sep>Gary Dineen/Getty Images Eric Bledsoe scored 23 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo added 19 points and 14 rebounds as the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Houston Rockets 108-94 Tuesday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. James Harden contributed 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists for the 47-28 Rockets, who fell to fourth place in the Western Conference. Clint Capela contributed a 17-point, 11-rebound double-double, and Chris Paul added 19 points and nine dimes. Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez each scored 13 points for the East-leading Bucks, who won their third straight game to improve to 56-19. Sterling Brown had eight points and 11 boards. Giannis Is The League's Best Player, But Harden Is The Most Valuable No NBA player is better than Antetokounmpo. Per Basketball Reference, he was first overall in player efficiency rating, overall win shares, win shares/per 48 minutes and defensive win shares entering Tuesday. Video Play Button Videos you might like For good measure, he's No. 6 in true-shooting percentage and top 20 in rebounding and assist percentage. He's an unbelievable player on both ends of the court and undoubtedly the NBA's best overall talent. No NBA player is more valuable than Harden. Per Basketball Reference, he's No. 1 in VORP (value over replacement player) and No. 1 in offensive win shares. For good measure, he's also tied for second in player efficiency rating. The VORP number is the key toward explaining Harden's invaluable performances. Per Basketball Reference, one can convert that number to wins over replacement by multiplying VORP by 2.7. In that case, Harden stands alone at 23.76, or more than four victories over Antetokounmpo. Think about those numbers in another way. Let's say Harden is worth about 24 wins more than replacement. If we put an average player on the court in The Beard's place, then the Rockets are 23-48. In other words, they'd be far closer to having the most pingpong balls than making the playoffs. Houston would also be 14th in the Western Conference. Now look at Antetokounmpo's numbers. By replacing him with an average player, the Bucks would be about 35-39. That's not great, but Milwaukee would still have a puncher's chance at the Eastern Conference playoffs with that mark. Of course, there are nitpicks to Harden's candidacy one can point out. The Rockets did just fine without him when beating the fully healthy Golden State Warriors on the road. Harden also takes a lot of shots and assumes a ton of usage, which naturally results in a lot of production. Furthermore, Houston isn't in the same class as Milwaukee, as evidenced by their records and this game. But there are counterpoints to all of the above. Sure, Houston beat the defending NBA champions sans Harden, but they are 2-2 without him overall this year with a 20-point home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers and a 19-point home defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers. Yes, Harden always has the ball in his hands, but his 30.4 PER is in Antetokounmpo's neighborhood at 30.7. Milwaukee might be a better team, but without Harden's offensive efforts, where would the team be? Check out how much the team relies on his isolation possessions to push the Rockets offense, per the Wall Street Journal: The Rockets rank second in offensive efficiency, per ESPN.com, a remarkable feat considering its reliance on Harden's play. In sum, Bucks fans may think Antetokounmpo is the MVP: However, if we're strictly going by the word "valuable," then that honor should belong to Harden for the second straight year. That's probably not going to happen with Antetokounmpo listed as the heavy betting favorite, per Oddschecker. However, if Harden does win again, Bucks fans can take solace in the fact they root for the NBA's best player, who leads the team with the best record. That's not a bad consolation prize. What's Next? The Bucks and Rockets will be at home Thursday. Milwaukee will host the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Houston Rockets will welcome the Denver Nuggets at the Toyota Center in Houston.<doc-sep>The MVP race argument between James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo is nearing its boiling point as both players have ramped up their campaigns with the regular season winding down. The Open Floor podcast makes the case for both candidates. With the NBA season winding down, the MVP debate is starting to heat up. James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the clear front-runners and both have ramped about their campaigns on and off the court. On the latest Open Floor podcast, Andrew Sharp and The Washington Post's Ben Golliver talk through the MVP cases for both players, including Houston's adversity this season, Milwaukee's continued dominance, the source of Harden ambivalence, whether Giannis' numbers could be even more impressive, and why the race is still a toss-up as we enter the final weeks of the season. (Listen to the latest Open Floor podcast here. The following transcript has been edited and condensed for clarity.) Stacy Revere/Getty Images Andrew Sharp: I feel like we are about to hit full on MVP argument season. So let’s start with two emails: The first is from Steven who says, ‘As a Houston fan, it has been all up and down this season and I am starting to wonder whether my heart can take it or not but there has been one constant throughout and that is James Harden. Have to think is there any chance he won’t win MVP?’ And the second question comes from Tony: “Dear Giannis Inc. some of the numbers that James Harden has been putting up lately has got me worried that recency biased is going to give Harden the MVP. How worried should I be?” So Ben, the floor is yours. Where do you stand on the MVP race right now? Ben Golliver: The first thing is Steven don’t be so melodramatic, like there was a bunch of ups and downs this season. Houston is in the fourth seed in the Western Conference, basically where most people expected them to be. Their win total is a bit lower than what people expected. It was shaky earlier on but I don’t think this was a turbulent season. When I went down there to visit the Rockets, I think in February, they had no Chris Paul, no Clint Capela and they were completely chill. They were like ‘We are going to be fine. We are still the biggest threat to Golden State, who cares?’ When it comes to the narrative thing, Harden has absolutely carried them but I don’t think it was like some hurricane storm that he magically pulled them through. … Sharp: I feel like the reason the Rockets’ season hasn’t been as turbulent then it has is because of James Harden. I think if you look at some of the things that happened around the edges—even Chris Paul—he has come back and played well but he has had a lot of nights this season where you look and watch him put up the numbers that he is putting up and you are just like ‘whoa what happened here’. I think this is the first time that age has become a real factor and we are starting to see Chris Paul decline. And you see that they are putting faith in Gerald Green. Gerald Green is taking 10-15 shots a night and P.J. Tucker is great but probably shouldn’t be playing 40+ minutes a night. The only reason why any of this has worked is because it has been James Harden, so I guess my point is as far as the MVP is concerned he has a really good case and is not easily dismissed. Golliver: Of course he has a really good case. And I do think he has been the main stabilizing factor. I think anybody would be nuts to dismiss that. I just think like, it’s not like they are stuck in the seven or eight seed battle. James has to do all of this stuff.. Their formula has been established so clearly, they have perfected it and Harden has taken his game to another level, it just hasn’t been that dramatic, Sharp: Harden had 60 the other night, it is pretty dramatic. [Laughs]. Golliver: Harden’s case is incredible. If you look at his per-game stats—he is averaging 36, six and seven right now—that line has never been done before in NBA history. Not Mike, not Wilt, not Kobe, not Westbrook, nobody. 36 points per game is one of the hallowed scoring averages that basically never gets touched and the way he has played recently, he is finishing strong. 51 points and 61 in consecutive games is absolutely no joke. He is going to be above that 36 points threshold and I think there is going to be a lot of voters that think this is going to be the most points someone has scored since Michael Jordan in 1987—automatic MVP vote. He just gets it no matter what. Houston is a four-seed currently and he is the reason why they are there. I just think that is the reason why his case is very compelling. Honestly, I wouldn’t blame them if you are talking about who has had the biggest impact on his teams’ offense this season, overall impact there is no question that it is James Harden. I don’t think it is the case for recency biased because Harden has been good for a lot of months now. This is not just about one incredible scoring week shifting the narrative. He has had a very steady case especially since December. I just think Giannis has a really, really, really strong case too and the one point I want to put out there on Giannis’ case is that it is similar to when I made in favor of Stephen Curry vs. Harden a few years ago in the MVP race. When your team is winning by a lot, that would come at the expense of your stats. You are not playing. You are not being forced to play 37 minutes per game like Harden is down in Houston.<doc-sep>
Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden went toe-to-toe when the Bucks and Rockets squared off on Tuesday night. It was supposed to be an electrifying showdown between the two runaway candidates for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player of the Year award. Instead, the viewing public saw a display of most valuable coaching. That’s because Mike Budenholzer, for the second time this season, installed an extreme defensive game plan that took Harden and the Rockets completely out of his game. It’s one of three reasons why the showdown between East and West MVP wasn’t as eventful as the world wanted. 1. The Bucks locked James Harden down Harden finished with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, but he shot just 9-of-26 to get there, turned the ball over four times, and shot only five free throws. What’s this wild scheme that Milwaukee is implementing against one of the most deadly scorers in NBA history? Force him right. If that doesn’t work? Force him right again. And again. By forcing him away from his dominant hand, the Bucks had effectively taken away his vaunted step-back jump shot. They also gave him a “free lane” to the basket, where a man would slide over to help. Harden is also deft at drawing fouls, so Bucks defenders made sure to show their hands in the air every time he had the ball. Milwaukee Bucks defending James Harden -Force Right -Force REALLY Right -Help In Paint -Show Hands At All Times@CoachPaintCH pic.twitter.com/WLn7McDN19 — Half Court Hoops (@HalfCourtHoops) March 27, 2019 This is the exact same thing Milwaukee did in a 116-109 win in Houston in early January, as explained by SB Nation’s Mike Prada. The worst thing a defense can do is allow Harden to dance around the perimeter before hitting a three and potentially drawing a foul on it. Eric Bledsoe set the tone for the Bucks defense that night, and all of his teammates followed suit. “It wasn’t even trying to stay in front of him,” Bledsoe told reporters then. “It was almost like, ‘You can have the lane.’” Bledsoe said he couldn’t have done it without his shot-blockers, Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. “I’ve gotta buy Brook a present this summer, man,” he laughed after the game. “For helping me out.” "Just try to run him off the 3-point line and send him to Giannis and Brook... It was a team effort." Eric Bledsoe on defending James Harden: pic.twitter.com/Q86kYJ2WbA — Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 27, 2019 2. Giannis did all his damage early Antetokounmpo finished with 19 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a block. Every basket seemed to be an impossible, extendo-finish at the rim. The MVP put up MVP numbers and got the W: 19 PTS | 14 REB | 4 AST #FearTheDeer pic.twitter.com/zBbZEVtaEc — Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 27, 2019 But while Antetokounmpo finished 7-of-15 from the floor, six of his field goals came in the first half. His last one was a layup early into the fourth quarter. That’s because Milwaukee pulled away early into the third quarter, and Giannis didn’t need to overextend himself. His teammates had the game under control, and one in particular was the MVP of this game. 3. Eric Bledsoe was the man of the hour Not only did Bledsoe lead the charge in checking the league’s unguardable man, but he also led the charge in putting the Rockets away. Bledsoe tied Harden for a game-high 23 points. More importantly, he scored 16 straight points in the third quarter, including 11 unanswered in a two-and-a-half minute span. ️ The Bledshow WENT OFF in the WIN with a team-high 23 points!! #FearTheDeer pic.twitter.com/aTOoS83KDy — Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 27, 2019 By the time Bledsoe’s personal run was over, Milwaukee was up, 79-65. Since the Bucks had found a way to neutralize Harden, this game had been decided, and it was E.B. who got the game ball. “For him to take the challenge and deliver on both ends of the court, heck of a performance,” Budenholzer said of Bledsoe after the game. The Bucks’ social media team won MVP — literally P.J. Tucker wore a hoodie that read “I’m with the MVP” while he walked into the Fiserv Forum with James Harden pre-game. The Bucks’ social media team photoshopped it so Tucker was walking with Antetokounmpo. Can we get this in a seven-game series, please?