We’re on to Week 4 of the Alliance of American Football. And if you’re still trying to figure this new league out, you don’t have to do it alone. Our experts are here to help you navigate placing your bets and setting your DFS lineups with comprehensive coverage of the AAF. Matchup analysis. Injury reports. Picks. Our lead AAF expert Ian Hartitz has every angle of each game covered. Oddsmakers are getting a better handle on the AAF. Luckily, the Oddsmaker — Sean Koerner — is here to help us find the best values based on his own projected spreads and over/unders. Setting Your Fantasy Lineups More Analysis + Commentary<doc-sep>It’s time for Week 4 in the Alliance of American Football league. Each glorious weekend of action has gifted us at least one viral moment so far, including: For now, we’ll focus on the on-field product in an attempt to find some value with the odds. What follows is a preview of all four games featuring betting odds, trends, key matchups, injuries, daily fantasy edge and betting pick(s). And if that’s not enough, we also have this lineup of comprehensive coverage: Now let’s dig into this weekend’s games. Betting Odds: San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express Spread: San Diego -6.5 Over/Under: 39.5 Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday TV: B/R Live Betting market: There’s been movement on the spread and the over/under, as San Diego opened as a -5.5 favorite with a total of 41 points. The public apparently doesn’t think Zach Mettenberger will prove to be much of an upgrade over whatever the hell the Christian Hackenberg experience was supposed to be. Week 3 Takeaways San Diego’s 31-11 Win Over San Antonio Philip Nelson is entrenched as the Fleet’s starting quarterback and had his finest performance in last week’s win. He rebounded brilliantly after throwing an interception on the game’s first play to complete 17-of-25 passes (68%) for 193 yards (7.7 yard per attempt) and a pair of touchdowns. San Diego was the only team to utilize only two running backs in Week 3. Terrell Watson and Ja’Quan Gardner racked up double-digit touches for the second time in as many weeks, though Watson (60% snaps) was the offense’s preferred goal-line and two-point conversion back over Gardner (40%). Nelson Spruce has emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for the Fleet. Brian Brown and tight end Gavin Escobar were the only other receivers to play at least 65% of the offense’s snaps in Week 3, as Francis Owusu and Dontez Ford played just 22% and 40% of the offense’s snaps, respectively. Spruce is one of only seven receivers with at least 25% of his team’s air yard market share (per NoExtraPoints.com). Memphis’ 21-17 Loss to Orlando Zac Stacy keeps racking up touches despite Sherman Badie and Terrence Magee continuing to stay involved. Overall, Stacy (49% snaps) was one of only two lead backs who failed to play at least half of their offense’s snaps in Week 3. Still, his 50 touches are more than any AAF player outside of Birmingham can attest to having through three weeks. Reece Horn and Gerrard Sheppard led the way by playing 97% and 72% of the offense’s snaps, respectively. Alton Howard and Devin Lucien played just 56% and 38% of the offense’s snaps, while Dontez Byrd and tight end Brandon Barnes posted respective snap rates of 23% and 66%. Mettenberger had only 12 pass attempts, but he managed to throw more touchdowns (2) than Hackenberg managed in 63 attempts (0). The former LSU quarterback’s ability to consistently dice up the Orlando defense downfield was particularly impressive. Imagine starting Christian Hackenberg over Zach Mettenberger pic.twitter.com/KG21axjO0M — Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 25, 2019 Which team is healthier? Memphis Both teams are in solid shape after three weeks of action. San Diego’s only concerns are difference-making linebacker A.J. Tarpley (back), stud defensive end Damontre Moore (knee) and cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah (wrist), who each failed to practice to start the week. Memphis’ only players to not practice in full to start the week was Stacy (illness), defensive tackle Julius Warmsley (ankle) and swing tackle Christian Morris (knee). It would be a surprise if Stacy is ultimately unable to suit up. Key matchup: Memphis’ Offensive Line vs. San Diego’s Pass Rush Mettenberger was pressured on 6-of-13 (46%) dropbacks during his season debut. This isn’t exactly unusual for the Express, as they’re tied with the Iron for the highest pressure rate allowed on offense (38.7%) after three weeks. Finish reading this entire article absolutely FREE in our app GET OUR FREE APP Next up is San Diego’s league-best defense in pressure rate per dropback. The Fleet’s 54.5% pressure rate is well-above the Commanders’ second-place mark of 49%, as Damontre Moore (No. 4 in Pro Football Focus’ pass-rushing productivity metric) and Shakir Soto (No. 5) have each consistently made life rough on opposing signal callers. Damontre Moore played with the Giants, Dolphins, Seahawks, Cowboys and Raiders from 2013-2018. Now Moore is the best pass rusher in @TheAAF with league-high marks in sacks (3) and pressures (15). pic.twitter.com/St8XBOWdBT — Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 18, 2019 DFS edge: San Diego RBs Memphis has allowed the second-most yards per carry and joins Atlanta as the only units to allow more than 30 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Gardner ($7,000) and Watson ($4,900) are set up brilliantly in this matchup, so why not play them both!? The AAF’s version of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have each racked up double-digit touches in consecutive weeks and currently function as the only two-back committee in the league. The Fleet are averaging an astronomical 6.3 yards per carry this season and have been plenty content to ram the ball down their opponent’s throats since turning the offense over to Nelson over the past two weeks. Take advantage of the league’s clearest defined backfield outside of Birmingham before Watson’s price inevitably rises. Bet to watch: Memphis +6.5 Mettenberger played like a top three quarterback during his 30 minutes of action in Week 3 and managed to out-score the consensus top three team in the league. I’ll take the points and continue to ride what’s been a strong home field advantage to start the season. AAF home field advantage after three weeks: Home teams straight up: 9-3 Against the spread: 8-4 Average home points: 24.1 Average away points: 15.3 — Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 25, 2019 Betting Odds: Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions Spread: Orlando -4.5 Over/Under: 41 Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday TV: NFL Network Betting market: The Apollos are receiving just 4.5 points against the Stallions, who managed to outscore Arizona by five points during their six quarters with Josh Woodrum under center. The over/under has dropped by 1.5 points since opening at 42.5. Week 3 Takeaways<doc-sep>All the AAF needed was a little bit of time. There's no possible way teams can form in January, for the first time, and begin playing in February without having to work out numerous tangles. It always needed a month or so to get on track. Well, here we are in Week 4 (here's how to watch all the games), and it's no coincidence that this slate of games is largely the most appealing to date. The Saturday schedule is especially appealing. The San Diego Fleet have been a hot team since switching to quarterback Philip Nelson, and the Memphis Express have found some life with Zach Mettenberger behind center. Which quarterback change will work out the best? There's a potentially fun one brewing in Memphis. Meanwhile, the Orlando Apollos head to Salt Lake City take on the Stallions and are less than a touchdown favorite. The Stallions already pulled off one upset as a home dog; do they have another in store? CBS Sports is here to give you the rundown of every AAF game against the spread. Our picks can be viewed below. Lines are courtesy of the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. San Diego Fleet (-6.5) at Memphis Express, O/U 41.5 This is a far more interesting game than it would have appeared just a couple of weeks ago. The Fleet have won two in a row and Memphis, though still winless, has dramatically improved. I'm most interested to see if Express quarterback Zach Mettenberger, in his first full start, can pick up where he left off after tossing a pair of impressive touchdown passes against Orlando. Both defenses have been playing lights out recently, so another tight one should be in store. The Express are also 2-0 against the spread at home, and 6.5 points is enough for me to take them. Pick: Memphis +6.5, Under 41.5 Orlando Apollos (-4.5) at Salt Lake Stallions, O/U 44.5 The AAF's best team goes on the road with a target on its back. Playing at Salt Lake is the first of four road games over the next five weeks for the Apollos, so we'll see how good this team really is. With quarterback Josh Woodrum healthy, the Stallions should be a threat to cover at home for the second-straight week; whether they'll win outright like they did vs. Arizona is another question. Can Orlando put a plug in Salt Lake's ground game that is sure to chew up the clock? That will be their key to winning. Pick: Salt Lake City +4.5, Under 44.5 San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron (-7.5), O/U 39.5 The Iron play a brand of physical, slow-burn football that wears teams down over 60 minutes. Can the Commanders, playing on the road for the second-straight week, counter blow for blow? The key thing to watch for San Antonio is the defense. After allowing an average of 26 points in the past two games, the Commanders face a far less explosive, but nevertheless effective offense. The point total is low enough that I still like the over, but the Iron have been good at home in covering. Pick: Birmingham -7.5, Over 39.5 Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots (-12), O/U 41.5 It would be a shocker if Atlanta pulled off the upset and beat Arizona, one of the top teams in the West division, on the road. The Legends will be playing their third game away from home in a month. However, Arizona was favored by double digits in Week 2 vs. Memphis, and Orlando was a 15.5-point favorite against the Express in Week 3, and both failed to cover. Atlanta has played terribly -- it has the lowest scoring offense and the worst point margin at -62 -- but a double-digit spread just hasn't been an easy cover for the favorite. Personally, I'd advise you to stay away from this line. But, if you must ... Pick: Atlanta +12, Under 41.5<doc-sep>Week 3 of The Alliance of American Football is in the books, and we saw the greatest upset in AAF history when the Stallions defeated the Hotshots. The Express and the Legends were not as fortunate, though, as both teams are looking for their first wins of the season. There are seven more weeks of AAF (plus the playoffs), which extend the season to April 27. After every week, we'll take a look at the results and rank each team based on performance. MORE: Christian Hackenberg benched during AAF game First, the scores from Week 3: — Salt Lake 23, Arizona 15 — Orlando 21, Memphis 17 — Birmingham 28, Atlanta 12 — San Diego 31, San Antonio 11 AAF power rankings 1. Orlando Apollos The Apollos have been on top of our AAF power rankings all season, and for good reason. Orlando is one of just two undefeated teams remaining, and the Apollos' 32.7 points per game leads the league. Their win against Memphis was a lot closer than expected, but they pulled off a road victory, which is rare in the AAF. After three weeks, Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert leads the league in passing yards (827), and the team has two receivers (Charles Johnson, Jalin Marshall) in the top five in receiving yards. Gilbert is the clear AAF MVP so far, as he has been tearing apart defenses in different ways. And the award for Best QB Scramble for a TD goes to...Garrett Gilbert. Watch his next great performance against Arizona. | 🎟: https://t.co/lh34IKopP4 #Oscars 🏹#TakeAim pic.twitter.com/cYg1Nti9lH — Orlando Apollos (@aafAPOLLOS) February 25, 2019 2. Birmingham Iron This is the hardest team to figure out — on one hand the Iron are 3-0, and on the other hand, they've played the easiest opponents. In Week 1, they shut out Christian Hackenberg (who was recently benched). In Week 2, they faced a Stallions offense playing its third-string QB. In Week 3, they faced a bad Legends offense. Adding to the confusion is Trent Richardson, who has 145 yards on 59 carries (2.5 yards per carry) but also has a league-leading six touchdowns. He is not good, but it's hard to ignore that red-zone production. And although Luis Perez is a talented QB, he has been relegated to checkdowns, as his yards per attempt is only 5.8. He also has not scored a TD all season. The main reason the Iron keep winning is they've forced an insane nine turnovers in 12 quarters. But is that a result of good defense, or have they just played bad offenses? We might not find out this week when they face another struggling offense in San Antonio. 3. San Diego Fleet The Fleet are moving up. After a Week 1 loss, they have changed course by putting together two impressive wins. The difference? San Diego has started to lean on running back Ja'Quan Gardner. In Week 1, the Fleet threw the ball 35 times while only giving Gardner eight carries. Since then, Gardner owns the two best rushing performances in AAF history. Also, the Fleet's defense is no joke. They have 11 sacks and five interceptions while only allowing an average of 12 points per game. Against the Commanders, nine different Fleet players had at least 0.5 sacks while adding seven QB hits. A good defense combined with the best rushing attack is a great equation for success. 4. Arizona Hotshots Another week, another drop in the rankings for the Hotshots. Arizona suffered its first loss of the season in large part because QB John Wolford was knocked out of the game in the third quarter. Before leaving, Wolford had completed 14-of-22 passes (64 percent) for 127 yards. His replacement, Trevor Knight, finished 6-of-15 for 68 yards. Coach Rick Neuheisel said after the game Wolford had a "back strain," but it's unclear what his status will be for Week 4. 5. Salt Lake Stallions Salt Lake finally picked up its first win after an unlucky first two weeks. With QB Josh Woodrum able to play an entire game, the Stallions showed some life on offense. He completed 22-of-31 passes for 178 yards, a touchdown and a two-point conversion. More importantly, the Stallions were able to manage time of possesion with a strong running back duo in Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver. Bouagnon is fifth in the league in rushing yards (154), while Oliver is seventh (139), the highest ranked pair in the AAF. 6. San Antonio Commanders The Commanders and the Fleet have gone in different directions since their Week 1 game. While the Fleet have won two straight, the Commanders have lost two in a row and given up 37 points and 31 points, respectively, in the process. San Antonio also appears to be testing different options on offense, as Logan Woodside, who is second in the league in passing yards, was moved to the bench late in the Week 3 game. Marquise Williams took over at QB, completing all four of his pass attempts for 21 yards and rushing five times for 33 yards. This isn't a bad team overall, but its two straight losses (while giving up 30-plus points each time) are not good looks. 7. Memphis Express Memphis finally benched Christian Hackenberg after nothing but bad outings. And it immediately paid off. Zach Mettenberger made an instant impact, completing 9-of-12 passes for 120 yards with two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in mop-up duty. He nearly pulled off a great comeback against the AAF's best team. Zac Stacy had a letdown game, but backup Sherman Badie put in a great performance and is a player to keep an eye on moving forward. The Express' defense also showed up, holding Orlando well below its points average for the season. The Express are still without a win, but things have improved in Memphis since its Week 1 shutout loss. 8. Atlanta Legends Atlanta is averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense and a league-low 10 points per game. The Legends have scored just two touchdowns in three games while turning the ball over 10 times (seven interceptions, three fumbles).<doc-sep>
After going 4-0 with our Alliance of American Football picks in Week 2, we followed with a solid 3-1 in Week 3 so we'll look to keep up that winning percentage as Week 4 comes along. There was one big surprise last week and that's when the then-winless Stallions upset the then-undefeated Hotshots. It was the biggest upset so far of the short AAF season, although it wasn't an insane surprise as Salt Lake has been a solid team all year. Also, Arizona lost its starting quarterback to injury in the third quarter. MORE: 10 AAF players who have made a case for the NFL But before we dive too far into the matchups, let's look at the plate of games we have this weekend. Betting odds are via BetOnline. Alliance of American Football Week 4 TV schedule Matchup Time Network San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express 4 p.m., Saturday B/R Live Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions 8 p.m., Saturday NFL Net/ fuboTV San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron 4 p.m., Sunday CBSSN/ fuboTV Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots 8 p.m., Sunday NFL Net/ fuboTV AAF Power Rankings: How good are the Iron, really? Fleet (2-1) at Express (0-3) Spread: Fleet -6 (+120) Over/Under: 41.5 Despite Memphis' 0-3 record, this should be an interesting game. The Express have improved over the last two games, especially on defense, and Mike Singletary finally made the decision to bench Christian Hackenberg. Starting in his place will be Zach Mettenberger, who showed some promise against a tough Apollos squad in Week 3. Hackenberg had no touchdowns (and three interceptions) in his 62 pass attempts. Mettenberger had two in just 12 attempts. He may not be the best quarterback in the AAF, but Mettenberger should be a big improvement over Hackenberg. But while the Express have improved, the Fleet actually converted their improvements into wins. After a poor Week 1, San Diego switched quarterbacks and started to lean more on their great running back duo of Ja'Quan Gardner and Terrell Watson. The Fleet's defense has also been one of the best in the league. Who to watch: Zac Stacy started the season as the main Express back, but Sherman Badie showed up in a big way last week after just joining the team. He ran eight times for 59 yards and caught a pass for another 16. He certainly looks like the real deal and is a player I'm excited to watch for another week. Prediction: Fleet win 23-16 MORE: Full schedule for the 2019 AAF season Apollos (3-0) at Stallions (1-2) Spread: -4 (+105) Over/Under: 43.5 The Apollos are our top team, but they should get a good challenge from the Stallions this week. For starters, it's a road game, and the Stallions were extremely close to being 2-1. If not for an injury to QB Josh Woodrum, the Stallions may even be 3-0 at this point. Salt Lake played spoiler in Week 3, ending the Hotshots' undefeated run. But can they do it again this week? It'll be tough, but there's a reason this game was flexed to the more desirable primetime slot. We expect this to be a close game, but the Apollos have just been too good for us to see another upset in the works. Garrett Gilbert has looked like the league MVP so far and running back D'Ernest Johnson is third in the league in rushing. Orlando can get it done in so many different ways. Who to watch: Karter Schult has a sack in every game this season, and leads the league with four overall on the season. He's also second in the league with eight quarterback hits. If he can pressure Gilbert, he'll give the Stallions a chance at winning. Prediction: Apollos win 32-26 MORE: Steve Spurrier, Trent Richardson give new AAF old-school SEC swagger Commanders (1-2) at Iron (3-0) Spread: Iron -7 (-110) Over/Under: 39.5 After picking up a win in Week 1, the Commanders have fallen on hard times, losing two straight. In Week 3 they tried going with backup QB Marquise Williams late in the game to try and spark something on offense, and they kind of did. Williams completed all four of his passes and ran five times for 33 yards. There's been no official announcement on who will start this week, but we assume Logan Woodside will get another chance at starter. Despite some struggles, he's' still looked impressive as he's currently second in the league in passing yards.