While Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler have the best odds to win this week’s Honda Classic, who are some sleeper picks to contend at PGA National? Here are three options listed at 100-1 or worse: Talor Gooch (100-1) Yes, he’s missed his last two cuts, but it wasn’t long ago that he finished fourth at the Desert Classic and T-3 at Farmers, two courses that reward great ballstriking. Gooch ranks 17th on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and is one of the best on Tour with his irons. He did go 70-77 to miss the cut in his Honda debut last year, but should fare much better in Year 2. Patrick Rodgers (125-1) He’s striking the ball better than he did the last couple of seasons and remains one of the better putters on Tour. He is coming off a T-15 showing at Riviera, which snapped a five-event missed-cut streak to start the new year. He’s played in four Honda Classics, making two cuts and tying for 33rd last year. Kelly Kraft (150-1) Like Rodgers, Kraft started the new year with four straight missed cuts before having success at Riviera, where he shared ninth. More importantly, Kraft turned in a top-25 performance in strokes gained: tee-to-green at Genesis while also ranking 11th in strokes gained: putting that week. Kraft had a nice outing at Honda last year, too, tying for eighth and firing a third-round 66 that week.<doc-sep>The PGA Tour shifts to the Sunshine State for the four-event Florida Swing, starting with this week's Honda Classic. Now that the West Coast swing and the one-week Mexico sojourn are behind us, the PGA Tour shifts east to the Sunshine State for the new-look Florida Swing. The events themselves are familiar—the Honda Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational, Players Championship and Valspar Championship—but the order is not. Last year, when the Players was still in May, the Honda was followed by the WGC-Mexico, then the Tour came back to Florida for the Valspar and API at Bay Hill. The Players' moving back to March prompted the Tour to bump the Mexico event before the Honda. On one hand, now we have a true Florida Swing—four events in four weeks, all in Florida—which makes sense geographically. On the other hand, the Honda is getting a bit of a raw hand. Many elite golfers played in both the Genesis Open (two weeks ago) and last week's WGC, and many of those same players want to play at Bay Hill and the Players. Playing five straight weeks isn't desirable nor feasible, so as a consequence, this year's Honda field isn't exactly star studded: just three of the top 20 players and six of the top 25 are competing, whereas a year ago there were 12 top-25 players in the field. Noticably absent is Tiger Woods, who lives just a short drive away from this week's host venue, PGA National. It was at this tournament last year that Woods' comeback kicked into gear, as his T12 finished sparked a nice run of play that included a T2 at the Valspar. Despite a distinct lack of starpower, the difficult PGA National layout and the iconic "Bear Trap" stretch (15, 16, 17) seem to always deliver. Let's just hope that no fans this year dare to ask for a ball to go into a bunker. The Course The Champion Course at PGA National, located in Palm Beach Gardens (just southwest of PGA Tour player Mecca Jupiter), was originally designed by George and Tom Fazio in 1981—Tom Fazio's other designs include Shadow Creek, Gozzer Ranch and Firestone—and it's clear they had elite tournament play in mind. It was given a redesign in 2014 by Jack Nickalus and was actually closed from June-October of last year for further renovations. It's widely regarded as one of the most difficult courses on Tour, and the average winning score from the past six Honda Classics is 8.66 under, which is closer to what you see at majors than normal PGA Tour events. The most famous stretch of the course is nicknamed the "Bear Trap," after Nicklaus. Like the rest of the course, water is everywhere on the par-3 15th, the par-4 16th and the par-3 17th. Here's a look at the second shot on 16. Sam Greenwood/Getty Images And the brutal par-3 17th. Imagine having to hit this shot in 20 mph winds with a tournament on the line: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images Like most other Florida courses, PGA National has bermuda fairways and bermuda greens. They'll play much differently than the poa annua surfaces we saw throughout California, and in Mexico. The field As discussed previously, this has to be the worst Honda field in years, and this is all due to the new schedule. There are some stars in the field however. Namely: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler. Thomas returns as the defending champion after he beat Luke List, who is also in this year's field, in a playoff last year. Top-10 machine Gary Woodland will be there, as will Webb Simpson, Alex Noren, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Kiradech Aphibarnrat and young Aussie phenom Cameron Smith. Tee times Here are some featured groupings for the first couple days. Here is a full list of tee times. All times EST. Adam Scott, Ernie Else, Kiradech Aphibarnrat — 7:35 a.m.* Thursday/12:25 p.m. Friday Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, Jhonattan Vegas — 7:45*/12:35 p.m. Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer — 12:25 p.m./7:35 a.m.* Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel — 12:35 p.m./7:45 a.m.* * denotes 10th-tee start. TV Coverage All times EST Thursday, Friday — 2-6 p.m. on Golf Channel Saturday, Sunday — 1-3 p.m. on Golf Channel, 3-6 p.m. on NBC Streaming available all week on NBC Sports' online platform. Odds Via Oddsshark.com: Justin Thomas +500 Rickie Fowler +1000 Brooks Koepka +1200 Adam Scott +1400 Sergio Garcia +1600 Gary Woodland +1800 Webb Simpson +2000 Cameron Smith +2500 Billy Horschel +3300 Daniel Berger +3300 Alex Noren +4000 Emiliano Grillo +4000 Luke List +4000 Byeong Hun An +5000 Kiradech Aphibarnrat +5000 Michael Thompson +5000 Lucas Glover +5500 Russell Knox +5500 Scott Piercy +5500 Charl Schwartzel +6600 The pick There's no reason (besides maybe fatigue) to believe Thomas, who will be sleeping in his own bed all week, won't contend. But +500 are some of the lowest odds you'll see for a favorite all year. Cameron Smith is a guy who jumps off the page at 25-1. The 25-year-old Aussie, who looks like he's about 16, first jumped onto the casual fan's radar when he finished T5 at last year's Masters. He's played extremely well since then, winning the Australian PGA in December and already notching four top-10s on the PGA Tour this season. That includes last week in Mexico, where he finished T6. This will mark Smith's first appearance in the Honda, which is concerning, but he presents great value at 20-1. Another guy worth a wager is Luke List (+4000), who lost in a playoff last year and put up a solid T15 in his last start at the Genesis Open.<doc-sep>Tournament Information Honda Classic Date: Feb 28 - Mar 3 Course: PGA National Golf Club Champion Course Purse - $6.8MM ($1.2MM to winner) FedEx points – 500 to winner 2018 Winner: Justin Thomas (-8) Course PGA National Golf Club Champion Course. Opened in 1981 by George and Tom Fazio, this presents a big jump in the season as we jump from the West Coast to the East and Florida Greens are now introduced. Best known for holes 15-17 “The Bear Trap”, this course presents not only a difficult layout to maneuver but also a sharp jump across the country into a completely new dynamic of wind, land and grass conditions. It is known to be the hardest par 70 among the non-majors. Coming so early in the season it’s interesting to see who rises to the challenge. My Starting 4 Billy Horschel (1st selection this year) — Across nine events this year he has yet to miss a cut. He has two top ten finishes in his last three years at the Honda Classic and he’s currently 38th in greens in regulation percentage. Adam Scott (1st selection this year) — Top 15 finishes each of the last three years here. He has two top ten finishes in the last three event this season. He’s 19th in total strokes gained. Luke List (1st selection this year) — Luke has four top 15 finishes to contrast his three missed cuts across eight starts this year. He is also a top ten finisher twice in the last three years here so I'm going with his track record of success to carry him. Justin Thomas (2nd selection this year) — Fresh off a 2nd place finish two weeks ago and a 7th place finish last week he is riding hot. Add to that he has two top three finishes in the last three years at the Champion Course. He’s 1st in strokes gained approaching the green, 1st in strokes gained tee to green and 1st in strokes gained total. Coming off 8 birdies in 11 holes ... This happens to @JustinThomas34. Golf can be cruel. pic.twitter.com/nl6OgCcxqK — PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 24, 2019 My Bench 2 Brendan Steele (2nd selection this year) — With top 15 finishes three of the last four years he seems like a strong pick for the Honda Classic but he has missed the last three straight cuts this season. He’s a good long shot to surprise people if he can turn it around at a familiar course. John Huh (1st selection this year) — With three top 25 finishes in the last four years here John is familiar with the Champions Course. He has missed cuts in seven of the 11 tournaments this season so it’s another long shot but I have a hunch either Brendan or John will be in the top 20 at the end. 2018 Stats Starting 4: Avg Finish 38th place (30th percentile) Bench 2: Avg Finish 60th place (48th percentile) Fun Factoid: Jack Nicklaus won here in consecutive years in 1977 and 1978.<doc-sep>“Flipping with Mexico didn’t help, but what really hurt was flipping with Mexico AND the Players moving back to March,” Kennerly said. “With the schedule squeezed this year, you’re going to see a lot of good events backed up against one another. We come right in the midst of a seven-week blitz that includes San Diego [on a U.S. Open course], Pebble Beach [this year’s U.S. Open course], Riviera, a WGC event, us, Bay Hill and the Players. Those are all events star players like to play in. But they can’t play all of them. They have to take a break somewhere.”<doc-sep>
PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods are among the golfers who live in the vicinity of PGA National and may very well be home this weekend. They just won't be playing at the Honda Classic. The condensing of the PGA Tour schedule is forcing players to make some tough decisions, and the Honda Classic didn't exactly benefit from a lot of those choices. Only three of the top 20 players in the world ranking are in the field for the event beginning Thursday — No. 3 and defending champion Justin Thomas, No. 4 Brooks Koepka and No. 9 Rickie Fowler. Next up: No. 21 Webb Simpson and No. 23 Gary Woodland. "There are a lot of guys who live down here," said Woodland, who is one of the South Florida-based players who gets to sleep in his own bed this week. "But with tournaments moving around, there are a lot of tournaments right now that are really good in a row. I skipped Riviera, which is one of my favorite golf courses, but you have to find the time." Last year at this time, the run of tournaments saw players deciding among Riviera one week, then the Honda Classic, then a World Golf Championship in Mexico, then Tampa, then Bay Hill, then another WGC for Match Play. This year, it goes Riviera, Mexico, Honda, Bay Hill, The Players Championship, Tampa and then the WGC-Match Play. That is a lot of really good options, all coming with a lot of players probably mindful of making sure they are fresh for the Masters as well. "Nobody's playing five in a row," Honda Classic executive director Ken Kennerly said. This isn't an issue exclusive to the Honda Classic. Phil Mickelson skipped playing at Torrey Pines, his home course, this year for the first time in 29 seasons — and has hinted that he could sit out The Players Championship as well. Woodland loves Bay Hill but can't fit it into his schedule this year. "The field isn't as strong as it typically is because of where it is right now on the schedule," Woodland said. "It's in a tough spot." Story continues Johnson hasn't played the Honda Classic since posting rounds of 77 and 75 and missing the cut by eight shots in 2015, so his absence this week can't be considered surprising. Not having Woods or McIlroy is different. Woods finished 12th last year at the Honda Classic, which he often calls his home event. McIlroy had appeared in the tournament nine times in the last 10 seasons. Woods and McIlroy waged one of the most memorable final-round matchups in Honda history in 2012 — Woods carded an 8-under 62 to vault up the leaderboard, and the then-22-year-old McIlroy wound up winning by two shots to become No. 1 in the world for the first time. Woods is likely to play four times in a five-tournament stretch. He is coming off starts in Los Angeles and Mexico and plans to compete at Bay Hill next week and The Players the following week. To play five consecutive weeks is a big ask for anyone, particularly someone like Woods, a 43-year-old who has dealt with injuries for years. McIlroy is in the same four-start, five-week stretch as Woods. It's easy to see how the Honda Classic paid the price. "There are still some great players playing," said Daniel Berger, who — like Johnson, Woods and McIlroy — lives a short drive from PGA National. "But you want guys like Dustin, guys like Tiger, Rory. But it's just a give-and-take. Players can only play so many weeks in a row, and there's a bunch of great tournaments around it. The Honda is a great tournament as well, but it's never going to work out for everyone." The schedule was changed for the 2018-19 season in part so the FedEx Cup playoffs could wrap up in August at the Tour Championship before college football and the NFL get rolling. That led to plenty of moving parts, with traditional spots for players to compete not seeming so traditional anymore. "Potentially I could play 11 out of 13 weeks, which is a lot of golf and that's too much for me," McIlroy said last month when laying out his thinking regarding scheduling this season. "I know myself and I know by that fifth or sixth week I'm going to hate the game and I'm going to need to take a break."