Defense is going to win another NCAA championship. Which defense will cash tickets for bettors in Monday night’s college basketball showdown featuring No. 1 Virginia and No. 3 Texas Tech (CBS, 9:20 p.m.)? Opening lines were up moments after Saturday’s Final Four finished. Offshore early birds posted Virginia -1 ¹/₂. First money hit Texas Tech. Las Vegas books either opened at Virginia -1 or -1 ¹/₂. based on how they anticipated their clientele were likely to bet. Oddsmakers anticipated another defensive struggle with a low opening Over/Under of 120¹/₂. These are two of the top five pace-adjusted defenses in the country. Under money dropped the number to 119. Sharps were happy to go 120 or more out of the gate given expectations for another very slow game featuring brick walls who know how to get stops. Movement on the side and/or total isn’t out of the question between now and tipoff. The public may be tempted to bet a hyped ACC power at a cheap price against a “blue-collar” opponent that feels overdue to run out of gas. Though, a quick look at Saturday’s key stats and recent form suggests Texas Tech may be the better “playoff style” March Madness team. — No. 1 Virginia (-6) beat No. 5 Auburn, 63-62: This point spread rose to as high as Virginia -6 ¹/₂ in some spots on news that Auburn stars Jared Harper and Bryce Brown were battling the flu. A slow pace (just 59 possessions per team) helped those two contribute (and Auburn bettors cash their tickets). No reason to rehash the dramatic and controversial ending. Virginia did win two-point shooting 56-50 percent, and 3-point shooting 37-29 percent … but had to survive a third straight nail-biter. At the end of regulation, Virginia has been only four points better than No. 12-seed Oregon, dead even with No. 3-seed Purdue, and one point better than No. 5-seed Auburn. The Cavaliers will need to lift their game against the best defense they’ve seen in the postseason since losing to Florida State in the ACC semifinals. — No. 3 Texas Tech (+2) beat No. 2 Michigan State, 61-51: A bit of a surprise that the public didn’t embrace the inexpensive favorite in game-day betting. Sharps and recreational players alike loved Texas Tech at +3, and still saw value at +2 ¹/₂. And they were right. Texas Tech won 2-point shooting 46-35 percent, and 3-point shooting 39-29 percent. This was also a very slow wrestling match, with 60 possessions per team. The Red Raiders have faced a much tougher gauntlet than the Cavaliers. Tech just scored outright upsets over No. 2-seed Michigan, No. 1-seed Gonzaga, and No. 2-seed Michigan State. Most impressively, Tech won the second halves of those stiff tests by scores of 39-28, 40-32, and 38-30. Impressive offense and defense in consecutive crunch times. If both teams bring their most recent form, Tech is arguably a slight favorite. But, if Tech finally runs out of gas trying to reach peak defensive intensity for the fourth time in less than two weeks against a brutal schedule, patient Virginia will make the Red Raiders pay.<doc-sep>The 2019 NCAA tournament all comes down to this. Texas Tech takes on Virginia in the national championship on Monday. Here's what to expect when each team has the ball, followed by a final prediction. When Virginia has the ball..... Both of these teams are outstanding defensively. Texas Tech ranks first on that end, per KenPom, and Virginia ranks fifth. RELIVE THE MOMENT: 3 takeaways from Virginia's thrilling win over Auburn But it's reasonable to say these are the two best defenses in the country based on the Hoos' track record. That said, their schemes are wildly different. The Pack Line is conservative by nature; Texas Tech is more aggressive. The Red Raiders switch regularly and will trap when opponents when they least expect it. They gamble in passing lanes and expect the next man up to help and rotate. Spoiler alert: they are usually right. The most telling stat between these two defenses: Texas Tech ranks 11th in forced turnover rate; Virginia ranks 235th. That's not a knock on the Cavaliers, but it illustrates the difference in philosophy. The Red Raiders bait opponents into playing mismatch basketball. They don't really leave you another choice. That contradicts modern offensive strategy, where the goal is usually to drive to the rim and kick out for 3s. Texas Tech wants teams to isolate, and trusts that the math will work in their favor. It is outstanding at eliminating open triples. Izzo credits Texas Tech's defense in loss "We have interchangeable parts," Chris Beard said Sunday. "We don't have guys who are ones, twos, threes, fours, fives defensively. We have players. That's what I learned from Coach Knight. He never understood what a one, two, three was. I really don't either. "I think defensively we have a lot of players. We're not in much position. This allows us to switch and guard different people and stuff like that. That would be one part of our defense that I think is pretty good, and we try to recruit to it." This is why De'Andre Hunter is so huge in this matchup. Texas Tech has the horses to hang with him — it's the best defense in the country, after all. But switch a point guard or a center onto Hunter, and you're asking for trouble. Virginia would be wise to use Hunter as the screener in pick-and-roll actions, and have Hunter stake out either the point guard or center's guy. The 6-7, 225-pounder would have a clear advantage over a Davide Moretti, for instance, even though Moretti is a solid defender for his size. Think about the lengths the Cleveland Cavaliers would go try to get Stephen Curry switched onto LeBron James in the last few NBA Finals. It's the same idea. BRACKET: Relive this wild tournament Texas Tech would send help, of course, but this feels like the key to unlocking anything good on offense. Even Gonzaga, the No. 1 offense in the country, couldn't puncture this group. Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy are outstanding players, but unless one of them is raining 3s from Steph Curry range, this is a tough matchup for them. Cassius Winston looked ordinary against the Red Raiders. The good news for UVA: Michigan State didn't have an iso guy as talented as Hunter. Virginia needs to play through him, and hope Hunter can either scramble the defense and kick to playmakers or score himself. Easier said than done, but most teams don't have an isolation scorer as good as Hunter. 2-pointer by De'Andre Hunter When Texas Tech has the ball... Life's no easier for the Red Raiders on the other side, of course. We know all about Virginia's defensive dominance over the past half decade. We'll start with the obvious point: Jarrett Culver needs to play better than he did against Michigan State, when he finished 3-of-12 for 10 points. He probably will. Culver will have a height advantage over anyone who guards him, unless Tony Bennett decides to really mess with the positional assignments and throw someone like Jerome on Tariq Owens. Probably not happening. Culver should see either Guy, Jerome or Kihei Clark. PREDICTIONS: See who was picked to win the Final Four He can, and should, shoot over any of those guys whenever he gets the chance. A possible strategy: Moretti, Culver and Matt Mooney should just let it freakin' fly on Monday night. And yes, that may result in some "bad" shots. But it feels like a more fruitful plan than trying to break down an unbreakable defense for 30 seconds and forcing a desperate heave as the shot-clock expires. Those three are all good shooters, and Virginia isn't going to chase you out to NBA 3-point range. Have a decent 3-point looks eight seconds into the shot clock? Take it. You're not going to dissect Virginia; Texas Tech's guards are good, but they don't have a speed advantage. That's the other mild weakness in the Cavs' D, but probably not one the Red Raiders have the personnel to exploit. And even if you beat Virginia off the dribble, Mamadi Diakite is a different guy this year who's eager to pounce at anything near the hoop. "Rim protection is so important," Tony Bennett said. "Sometimes your defense just breaks down. So the ability for guys to either erase mistakes, and Mamadi's been significant in that, and I know Texas Tech is significant in that capacity too, but that is -- when you can play good defense but you have some length or shot blocking behind it, it just adds another element to being harder to score against." Relive the dramatic final seconds of Virginia's win over Auburn Texas Tech is shooting 36.6 percent from 3-point range as a team and has had one of the top offenses in the country since the start of February. The "launch more quick 3s than normal" strategy could make them look foolish if it ends in clank after clank. It takes some guts. But it seems like Texas Tech's best chance at doing any serious damage against this stalwart of a unit. Final prediction This is such an even matchup... but give us Texas Tech in the slight upset. It's weird to say that a team who's in the national title game isn't playing its best, but if you've watched Virginia all season, you'd know it's true. Credit the Cavaliers for getting to this point; they've earned it. But UVA looked like a more dominant force during ACC play than it does now. You can't say the same about Texas Tech, which has beaten Michigan State, Michigan and Gonzaga in this tournament. And none of those games were nail biters. Virginia's defense is great; Texas Tech's is otherworldly right now. Don't expect a lot of points in this one. Score: Texas Tech 59, Virginia 57<doc-sep>Streeter Lecka/Getty Images No one expects the 2019 NCAA men's basketball national championship to be aesthetically pleasing. Both Virginia and Texas Tech are known for their defense and slow pace on offense, which means we'll be lucky if both teams reach 60 points. Virginia has allowed two NCAA tournament opponents to score over 60 points, while Texas Tech has held four of its five foes under 60. Since both programs are so stout on the defensive side of the ball, we're likely going to see one of the most low-scoring championship games in March Madness history. Final Score Prediction Virginia 57, Texas Tech 53 Virginia and Texas Tech's combined margin of victory in the last two rounds is 22 points. Video Play Button Videos you might like Both programs have been involved in tight affairs in the Elite Eight and Final Four, and Monday's national championship won't be any different. Streeter Lecka/Getty Images Not only are both teams strong on the defensive end, but they don't mind eating up clock when the ball is in their possession. By taking a cautious approach on offense in the first half, both teams will struggle to eclipse the 30-point mark before halftime. On Saturday, the Cavaliers scored 28 first-half points, while the Red Raiders entered halftime with 23 points on the scoreboard. The deliberately slow pace won't be easy on the eye, but if you pay close attention to each possession, you'll be able to see how each team slowly breaks down the opponent in their offensive sets. Virginia will turn to Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome and De'Andre Hunter to score the majority of its points after they combined for 50 of its 63 points against Auburn. Texas Tech also relies on its backcourt to do the majority of the scoring, as Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney and Davide Moretti produced 37 of its 61 points versus Michigan State. Streeter Lecka/Getty Images Since both teams are expected to receive strong guard play, they'll have to turn to the paint for offensive difference-makers. Virginia's Mamadi Diakite only scored two points Saturday, but he's scored 14 or more points on three occasions in the NCAA tournament. Conversely, Texas Tech hasn't gotten a double-digit point performance out of Tariq Owens or Norense Odiase since the second-round win over Buffalo. Unless the Red Raiders receive an uptick in production from their frontcourt players, it's hard to see them overwhelming Virginia for long stretches on offense. With Virginia holding a slight offensive edge in the paint, it will break out to a small advantage in the second half and force Texas Tech to play from behind. But even in the final minutes, we shouldn't see many rushed possessions since the Red Raiders will only be a score or two away from flipping the momentum in their favor. In the final minutes, Virginia holds on because of its perimeter defense and a few baskets from its top players. But even with a good amount of drama keeping our attention at the end of the second half, we'll still see the lowest-scoring national championship since UConn beat Butler 53-41 in 2011. Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90<doc-sep>
Texas Tech and UVA are minutes away from tipping off in Minneapolis in the 2019 college basketball National Championship Game. Both squads are entering the NCAA Final for the first time in program history, and with two defensive masterminds at the helm, this game is set to be a captivating chess match. Virginia’s road to redemption began after their embarrassment in the 2018 NCAA Tournament and will conclude here tonight, win or lose. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is aiming to put their name on the college basketball map with authority. National Championship Game Texas Tech vs. Virginia (-1.5) When: Monday, April 8 Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota Time: 9:20 p.m. ET TV: CBS Live Stream: fuboTV (watch for free) The Final Four told two different tales in terms of how the Cavaliers and the Red Raiders came to be in the decisive showdown. Top-ranked Virginia pulled off a second-half turnaround to just about edge #5 Auburn 63-62, while third-seed Texas Tech confidently beat #2 Michigan State by 10 points. Senior guard Matt Mooney rained down 22 points in Texas Tech’s Final Four debut—they made it to the Elite Eight for the first time in 2018—and will hope to impress once more in what promises to be a tight contest. He picked up the slack on a night when leading scorer Jarrett Culver only mustered 10 points, proving that the Red Raiders are a dynamic group. But Texas Tech’s greatest asset is coach Chris Beard and the impact he’s had on their rate of success. In his third season at the helm, Beard continues to break new ground with the school, who have a record 31 wins this year. He’s created a defensive system that swarms and suffocates opponents, and ranks as the best defensive team since KenPom.com began tracking defensive efficiency in 2002. Virginia is also making their National Championship debut after their third trip to the Final Four. They’re the narrow favorites to win on Monday, and narrow is all they’ve needed the get here. Seemingly on the brink of elimination against Purdue in the Elite Eight and Auburn in the Final Four, UVA managed to get game-saving shots from Mamadi Diakite and Kyle Guy to keep them alive. Virginia is 34-3 this season, and have come a long way since their first-round flameout in 2018. After becoming the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed in NCAA Tournament history, UVA responded with a calm and disciplined approach coupled with a never-say-die attitude. They also sport a top-5 defense, but unlike Texas Tech, their offensive efficiency is one of the highest in the nation, which could spell the difference in who cuts down the nets. That being said, Texas Tech has found a way to shut down the major weapons of almost every attack they’ve faced this season and have to pull off one more trick to complete their fairytale finish. The Cavaliers will hope their cast of under-appreciated stars can light the way to a first-ever college basketball National Championship, but Texas Tech has an underdog’s drive running firmly in their favor. It’s a defensive matchup for the ages, and if the previous rounds are any indication, it’s going to be a classic. It will be a slow paced, low scoring game where defense will be at the forefront. While Texas Tech is cruising along right now, I don’t see Virginia stopping them. Don’t forget, Auburn would have won the game outright without that last second foul. I’m taking the Texas Tech Red Raiders (+1.5). We recommend interesting sports viewing and streaming opportunities. If you sign up to a service by clicking one of the links, we may earn a referral fee.