By the end of this year we should expect UK law to mandate net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Thursday’s report by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which advises the government, sets out not only why this new target is needed, but how it can be achieved. Last year the UN warned of greatly increased dangers if countries do not stick to the lower end of the 1.5-2C of global warming mandated by the Paris agreement. Experts highlighted sea level rises and risks to insect and coral species among problems likely to be seriously exacerbated by an additional 0.5C rise. This is the reason for governments to set new, tougher targets in advance of upcoming UN climate talks, at which they will be held to account and forced to decide what happens next. At the same time, dramatic falls in the cost of renewable energy and battery storage mean that cutting emissions has become cheaper. The CCC believes it is possible to eliminate the UK’s carbon footprint altogether without investing more than already planned: that is, between 1% and 2% of GDP. So there is some good news, along with the bad. Costs are concentrated in the power and construction sectors. New energy sources such as hydrogen need infrastructure, while wind and solar must be scaled up. New technologies such as carbon capture and storage require trials. Buildings must become energy-efficient as gas boilers, 1m of which are installed each year, are phased out. Huge numbers of trees need planting, with one-fifth of all agricultural land turned over to forests, peatland or energy crops. People should be encouraged to make different choices, eating less beef, lamb and dairy. The report suggests a target of 2030 for ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars, but then wrongly settles for 2035. Currently, transport emissions are still going up. As well as a practical and moral case for action, the report makes a strategic one. The UK was a pioneer in climate legislation. Where one country leads, others will follow and such leadership brings power as well as prestige. Without a new target the UK will soon be overtaken (France has a 2050 target for net-zero, although not yet a law; Sweden and Norway have earlier deadlines but less strict rules). Since climate chaos will bring political chaos, limiting it is in the national interest. A “green new deal” has become popular currency on the progressive side of politics in the UK, US and Spain. This idea usefully links technological and environmental change with the prospect of a renewed social contract and the questions of justice often emphasised by environmentalists. The CCC’s report must have been all but complete before most people had heard of Extinction Rebellion, or seen pictures of the Swedish activist Greta Thunberg with environment secretary Michael Gove. But the extraordinary success of protesters over recent weeks, both in raising awareness and materially altering the climate debate, makes it more likely that targets will be further strengthened, as they have been before and should be again. The 2050 target is not ambitious enough. A government that purports to accept climate science but promotes aviation, road-building and fracking, while making onshore wind all but impossible and cutting back on subsidies for green energy, deserves to be exposed. To this end, as well as that of helping to shift public opinion, it is crucial that activists, including those opposing airport expansion, as well as politicians, continue their work. About one thing Extinction Rebellion was absolutely right: people must be told the truth. The brave new world of 2050 need not be a dystopia, even if some damaging effects of warming are now inevitable and the prospect of a second Trump term gives cause for alarm. But if we are to avoid the most dangerous consequences of a warmer world, we must find ways not only to limit and mitigate the risks of physical changes; but also to make political ones. The kind of long-termism that climate change requires is not a good fit with modern electoral cycles – or 24-hour news. Finding ways to counter this, and build the future into our politics, is a challenge not just for politicians, environmentalists and civil society groups, but for human civilisation as a whole.<doc-sep>The Committee on Climate Change has urged the government to adopt a target of net zero emissions by 2050. These seven charts show how that might unfold, and what it means for the UK economy Universal Images Group North America LLC/Alamy Stock Photo Here’s a selection of some of the most pertinent numbers that the Committee on Climate Change has compiled for the government in its report, ranging from expectations about the UK’s future emissions, sectors which it expects will emit the most greenhouse gases and some surprising numbers about the transition to electric cars. The UK has already cut greenhouse gas emissions 40 per cent on 1990 levels, looking solely at “territorial” emissions, rather than ones based on consumption of imported goods and services. Before 2050, there are interim targets, including a 57 per cent cut by 2030, which the government admits it’s currently set to miss. Advertisement Read more: What you life could be like in a low carbon future Previous cuts have been very uneven across the economy. The heavy lifting has been done by the power sector booting out coal in favour of more renewable sources and gas power stations. According to the most recent numbers, transport has replaced the power sector as the biggest emitter. This chart shows the UK’s impact on global temperature, relative to now, from adopting a net zero target compared to today’s 80 per cent plan. As the line goes up, we are adding to global warming. As it goes down, the UK contributes to global cooling. Today, farming and aviation are relatively small emitters compared to other sectors. But if the net zero target is achieved, their hard-to-treat nature means they will be the big two remaining rumps of emissions in 2050. That is why negative emissions measures are needed, such as tree-planting. In the past, most of the emissions cuts have happened behind the scenes, through technological changes. Kettles still boil the same, regardless of whether powered by electrons generated from a coal power station or wind farm. This chart shows how more than 60 per cent of future measures require some sort of consumer behaviour changes too. The government plans to ban new petrol and diesel car sales by 2040, but a 2030 goal would save more money, says the Committee on Climate Change. Switching to electric cars will cost society around £1bn a year in the early 2020s, in terms of costs of buying the cars, investing in energy networks and charging points. Later, they are expected to save the UK billions of pounds annually. One of the Committee on Climate Change’s key findings is the cost of a net zero target will be the same as the existing one of an 80 per cent cut. That’s because the cost of technologies has fallen rapidly since the current target was enshrined in law 11 years ago. This chart shows just how much faster the cost of batteries has fallen than the group originally expected.<doc-sep>Pay based on use Get Started Purchase a Team or Enterprise subscription for per week You will be billed per month after the trial ends<doc-sep>Six months on from the UN’s landmark 1.5°C report, which urged immediate global action to prevent global warming from rising beyond this dangerous level, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has advised the UK government to go zero-carbon by 2050. The committee’s report asserts that the target constitutes the country’s “highest possible ambition” and that it is not credible to aim for an earlier date. We disagree. While the report does challenge the government to step up its climate ambition, our view is that creative carbon accounting and an unwillingness to prioritise the planet’s health over economic growth leaves the committee’s target lacking the urgency truly required to combat the climate emergency recently declared by even the government itself. Creative accounting Before assessing whether 2050 is an appropriate date, its important to unpack exactly how the committee defines net zero. Based on international guidance from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UK’s target only includes territorial carbon emissions – those that are emitted directly within the country’s borders. The committee’s report highlights that the country’s territorial carbon footprint has fallen by 30% from 2008. But as Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg highlighted to parliament, using this figure as a mark of the country’s climate leadership amounts to nothing more than creative carbon accounting, glossing over the UK’s role in emissions that occur outside its borders. The UK economy is primarily driven by its service sector, and the value of its imports is roughly triple that of its exports. The production and transport of these imported goods are a direct consequence of the UK’s consumption habits, but these emissions aren’t counted by the committee because they occur beyond its shores. Including these emissions and excluding emissions from exports to other countries, the UK’s carbon footprint is 70% higher than the figure used by the committee. Kate Scott/University of Manchester , Author provided Crucially, this alternative definition shows that emissions are still closely tied to the UK’s GDP, only notably reducing during the most recent financial crisis and remaining steady in recent years. The CCC does say that it will monitor the UK’s consumption-based emissions, and highlights that the country must avoid “offshoring” its territorial emissions by importing more goods. But it stops well short of addressing the fundamental elephant in the room – that to seriously tackle emissions, the UK must move away from an economy that prioritises short-term growth over radical emission reductions. On the surface, the most glaring omission in past carbon budgets at least appears to have been addressed. Emissions from international aviation and shipping have long been excluded from national targets in favour of international reduction efforts such as the UN’s CORSIA or the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. The committee now argues that “emissions from international aviation and shipping cannot be ignored”. But it only recommends their inclusion in the UK’s carbon budget from 2033. This is 14 years too late. UK aviation emissions must not grow in the next decade if it is to prevent the worst effects of global warming. The time to act on aviation and shipping is now. Highest possible ambition? Even placing accounting issues aside, the 2050 target is unambitious and gives a false impression that there is time to play with. Lord Deben, chair of the committee, is almost certainly right that Extinction Rebellion’s demand that the country reaches net zero by 2025 is physically impossible. Shedding the country’s attachment to growth does not on its own lead to a neutral carbon ledger. The massive amounts of investment, innovation and infrastructure required to get there would not take full effect within six years. But to say that anything earlier than a 2050 target isn’t credible is a grave and dangerous mistake. At current levels of emissions, the world will reach 1.5°C of warming in 12 years. Each year that the UK delays radical action, the necessary yearly emissions cuts to hit net zero become greater, making it ever harder to avoid catastrophic warming. Even with immediate action, the world is still pinning hopes on carbon capture and storage technologies that may never work at scale. Working towards an earlier target with steeper emissions cuts would require initial uncomfortable changes, but would massively lower our reliance on these incredibly uncertain technologies. The report’s claim that the 2050 target represents the UK’s “highest possible ambition” speaks more to the country’s economic priorities than to reality. Ten years ago, the committee wrote that an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 (against 1990 levels) was at the limit of feasibility. Now, the committee has changed its mind, stating that net zero can be achieved by the same date, for the same price: 1-2% of GDP. This small percentage is seen as the maximum acceptable cost of mitigating climate change, even in the face of the trillion-pound losses that are forecast if we do not take sufficient action. Is this really all the fate of present and future generations at risk of climate change is worth? The report does hold some positives. It is unequivocal that current policy is insufficient to achieve even the UK’s existing targets and urges a ramping up in actionable efforts. It criticises plans to phase out fossil fuel powered cars by 2040 as too late and too vague, and calls for the government to confront failures to plant enough carbon-absorbing trees and decarbonise heating systems. But in focusing on what is “feasible” rather than necessary, the committee’s trajectories simply do not reflect the radical carbon reductions the UK can make, and will only end the UK’s contribution to global warming on paper. The year 2025 may be an unrealistic target, but missing that by a few years is much less dangerous than hitting a 2050 target comfortably. We need to take every leap we can and fast, even if it is into the dark. As Greta Thunberg says, if your house is on fire, you don’t tell people that the fire brigade will be along in a few hours – you act. Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.<doc-sep>
The UK’s Committee on Climate Change has released its anticipated report, and it’s recommending a new goal — net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. “Now is the right moment” to set such a goal for the UK, the committee says, noting that decreasing costs of zero-carbon technologies mean the goal is “now possible within the economic cost that Parliament originally accepted when it passed the Climate Change Act in 2008.” The net zero goal would require a 100% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Any remaining sources of emissions would be offset by removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. The committee says growing new trees, for instance, could be a way to offset those emissions. As expected, the committee also recommends to cease the sale of all non-zero emission vehicles by 2035, moving up that deadline from 2040. Diesel and petrol cars still on the road after sales of the vehicles are banned would only earn regulatory approval until 2050 “at the latest.” The CCC report also finds that: The foundations are in place throughout the UK and the policies required to deliver key pillars of a net-zero economy are already active or in development. Policies will have to ramp up significantly for a ‘net-zero’ emissions target to be credible, given that most sectors of the economy will need to cut their emissions to zero by 2050. The overall costs of the transition to a net-zero economy are manageable but they must be fairly distributed. The committee’s 300+ page complete technical report offers more information on the specific plans and timelines recommended. Committee chairman Lord Deben said, “We can all see that the climate is changing and it needs a serious response. The great news is that it is not only possible for the UK to play its full part – we explain how in our new report – but it can be done within the cost envelope that Parliament has already accepted. The Government should accept the recommendations and set about making the changes needed to deliver them without delay.” The committee recommends Scotland reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, due to its “greater potential to remove pollution from its economy than the UK overall.” A tweet from today shows the Scottish government already looks to get on board: Wales should adopt a 95% reduction in emissions by 2050, the committee recommends, as it has “slightly lower opportunities than the UK as a whole.” Climate Emergency The announcement coincides with UK parliament’s declaration of an “environment and climate emergency.” Climate protest group Extinction Rebellion celebrated the announcement on Wednesday: BREAKING – UK MPs pass a motion to declare an environment & climate emergency. This has seen them start to #TellTheTruth about the climate & ecological crisis. They must now halt biodiversity loss, go net #ZeroCarbon2025 & create a #CitizensAssembly.pic.twitter.com/qXR7vEJwpG — Extinction Rebellion 🐝⌛️🦋 (@ExtinctionR) May 1, 2019 Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said (via The Independent): “We pledge to work as closely as possible with countries that are serious about ending the climate catastrophe and make clear to US president Donald Trump that he cannot ignore international agreements and action on the climate crisis.” Electrek’s Take Putting two and two together here — considering the UK just declared a climate emergency, we’d think it’s likely the net zero 2050 goal will be officially adopted. While the recommendation is being touted as the most ambitious in the world to date for an economy of the UK’s size, some are wondering if it’s ambitious enough. For example, Extinction Rebellion is pushing for net zero carbon by 2025. Nevertheless, this would be a firm target for net zero emissions, and as we’ve seen with goals in other regions — including US states and cities — other countries may follow suit. A “competition” to set more ambitious targets for reducing emissions worldwide would benefit all. FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More. Subscribe to Electrek on YouTube for exclusive videos and subscribe to the podcast.