Doug Bandow Security, America Moving the Korean peace process forward requires that the president’s optimism be tempered by a large dose of realism; a nuclear-free Northeast Asia is unlikely. Hanoi Summit: Trump Hit a Bump On a Long Road To the surprise of almost everyone, the Hanoi summit between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un ended without an agreement. But the president noted that he made a friendly exit, not “an angry walk-out.” This was something often lost amid the hype surrounding the purported Trump-Kim lovefest: reversing seven decades of hostility inevitably will take time. The major problem appeared to be the amount of preparatory negotiation done prior to the trip—there was too little of it. The sticking point, according to Trump, was that the North Koreans wanted sanctions lifted in exchange for dismantling part of their nuclear facilities, apparently the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. The administration wanted more; it took aim at facilities that the North Koreans possibly believed the United States didn’t know about. Upon this rock, it seems, the summit finale foundered. Such issues should have been hashed out by the respective governments before the two principals met. Rather than wring their collective hands, officials in both capitals should step back and create a step-by-step process of engagement, confidence-building, disarmament, and ultimately denuclearization. Every advance should benefit both sides. And even if the progression ultimately breaks down in the sense that the United States and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea can’t agree on complete verifiable irreversible denuclearization, which has long been Washington’s ultimate desire, the Korean Peninsula nevertheless will be more stable and peaceful, with the North largely integrated in the international system and playing a responsible, predictable role. Moving forward requires that the president’s optimism be tempered by a large dose of realism. A nuclear-free Northeast Asia is unlikely. More important, however, a peaceful Northeast Asia is possible, even probable. And that would be an achievement worth celebrating. Story continues – The Korean “problem” is seven decades old. In that time the peninsula has suffered through a deadly hot war followed by years of brutal cold war punctuated by brilliant hot flashes. DPRK leaders have buried Washington with obloquy, insults, slander and hatred. Although the West’s rhetoric was more restrained, its sentiments were similar. Closing the divide between North Korea and America will take more than a year or two. Most important, the two governments have begun a process that could yield genuine peace and cooperation. As the president apparently came to realize, what’s the rush? Hurrying won’t help. – North Korean nuclear weapons do not threaten America. The North’s leaders are not—and never have been—suicidal. They want their virgins in this world, not in the next, and are not contemplating the virtues of exiting life in a giant radioactive funeral pyre in Pyongyang. The North’s program is primarily defensive, designed to create a deterrent against the United States, which has allied with South Korea, deployed troops in the South, and engaged in regime change against weak adversaries around the globe. There always is a danger of mistake and misjudgment, but Kim is not going to start a war that he knows would leave his nation in ruins. – The seeming crisis of 2017 was created by the president. Kim had accelerated the North’s missile and nuclear tests, perhaps to solidify military support for his rule, rush through a window of vulnerability when Washington might consider striking militarily, or both. However, his rhetoric was nothing new, mimicking that of his father. The president’s reaction created the volatile environment, since Kim might be tempted to strike if the latter believed a U.S. attack was imminent. Under such circumstances the North’s military would essentially use it or lose it. Thankfully, neither leader displays any desire to experience the Second Korean War. – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the governments had made “real progress” and moved “closer” to an agreement. That might be applying lipstick to a summit pig, but probably not. Most important, the two sides were talking specifics, which seemed almost entirely absent from the Singapore meeting. That suggests an obvious agenda for the future—most appropriately below the president-chairman level. Indeed, the likelihood of another Trump-Kim summit is not important. Summit breakdowns do not necessarily predict the future course of relations. Remember the 1986 Reagan-Gorbachev “failure” at Reykjavik? The meeting was followed by liberalization of the Soviet Union and end of not only the Cold War, but communism as a serious ruling ideology. – Washington and Pyongyang should notch up a quick victory to reassure South Koreans, in particular, that diplomacy remains on course. The two governments should agree to permanent cessation of missile and nuclear testing by the North and military exercises by the United States. That would be more than a fair trade; in fact, it would be to America’s obvious advantage. Equally important, this step would demonstrate that negotiations continue and suggest that further progress is likely. – The next task is to focus on bite-size moves designed to improve bilateral and regional relationships, reduce accumulated tensions, and meet goals of both the United States and North Korea. Solving everything—eliminating nukes and sanctions, in particular—in one agreement is an attractive but unrealizable objective. Indeed, Pyongyang already indicated its need for assurances before it abandons its leverage. Last year’s summit statement promised improved relations and the creation of a peninsula peace regime alongside—and in the DPRK’s view, before—denuclearization. Such steps need to be taken to make nuclear disarmament even possible. – The Trump administration should treat such steps as benefits, not concessions. For instance, a peace declaration recognizes reality, that the war is over. This fits the president’s rhetoric. He lauded his relationship with Kim and predicted progress to come. Such an announcement would make it more difficult for the North Koreans to restart their militaristic anti-American propaganda. Liaison offices should be a no-brainer. Talks should be ongoing and expanding. Included in that should be an expectation that human rights will be one of the subjects addressed.<doc-sep>What Happened This Week: A certain U.S. President and a certain North Korean leader met in Vietnam this week to make progress towards denuclearization and thawing relations between the two countries. They did not make progress on either of those fronts, and the summit in Hanoi ended abruptly without any agreement. Why It Matters: The fact that nuclear weapons are involved makes this particularly important. But beyond that, people worried President Donald Trump would give away the store without getting anything in return (a fear compounded by the Michael Cohen congressional hearings on Wednesday that gave Trump even more incentive to change the media narrative) can now breathe a big sigh of relief. But while all the headlines you will read this week will declare the Hanoi summit a failure (and with a certain amount of smugness to boot), the truth is that there’s a far smaller threat of escalation on the North Korea issue now than when Trump began his diplomatic outreach to Kim Jong Un. South Korea now has new and more stable relations with Pyongyang. And the U.S. President still has a better chance of achieving a breakthrough with North Korea than any of his predecessors. Trump still wants to make a deal with Kim, and that desire aligns nicely with his desire to spend less money protecting allies in Asia, as we saw by his decision to suspend military exercises last year. None of his predecessors would have ever done that, likely seeing it as a “give” without anything in return. Trump saw it as an opportunity to spend less money and jumped at it. And most Presidents wouldn’t have even met with Kim without concrete concessions on the table. For Trump, meeting Kim was an opportunity to showoff his deal-making skills. The mere fact that Trump doesn’t view these American moves as “giveaways” give him much more space for achieving a legitimate breakthrough than any who have come before him, even if the prospects for that breakthrough remain small. What Happens Next: The abrupt end to the summit is unlikely to heighten tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, as Trump went out of his way in the press conference afterward to highlight his good relationship with Kim and emphasize that dialogue between the two sides will continue. He also mentioned that Kim promised to stop ordering nuclear and missile tests, and said nothing of increasing American pressure against Pyongyang. Beyond that, it’s not clear. Both sides will go back home and rethink their strategies vis-a-vis the other. Hawks in Japan and South Korea will use the failed summit and rumors that Trump has moved off his demand that North Korea completely denuclearize as a pretext to argue for strengthening their own nuclear capabilities, but are unlikely to get much traction at this point. South Korean President Moon Jae-in will face much more criticism at home from political opponents who always thought that he was too soft on Kim, and the lack of progress at this week’s summit will hit the planned increase in economic cooperation between the two Koreas. The Key Fact That Explains It: Kim Jong Un reportedly wanted Donald Trump to lift all sanctions in exchange for less-than-complete denuclearization, which Trump balked at. Kim probably figured that Trump was so desperate to achieve a breakthrough in the shadow of the Cohen testimony that he overplayed his hand. The Key Quote That Sums It All Up: “Sometimes you have to walk.” – Donald Trump at the Hanoi press conference. Supporters of the President will be using this Hanoi summit as Exhibit A to demonstrate what a tough negotiator Trump is. His detractors will hold up the same Hanoi summit as proof that Trump is in way over his head when it comes to high-stakes, high-level foreign policy. The One Thing to Say About It: U.S.-Russia, U.S.-China and U.S.-North Korea will be the three key foreign relationships that will define the Trump presidency. While Trump is busy cultivating good relations with the leaders of these three countries, the reality is that U.S.-Russia relations are currently worse now that they were even under Obama given Russian election meddling. Meanwhile, too many Americans have too many interests to let Trump declare victory with China if Beijing doesn’t address the key structural issues China hawks rightfully take issue with (cyber attacks, IP theft, tech transfers, etc…). None of these are concerns with US-North Korea; if there is one relationship that Trump can improve through sheer force of will and a strong personal relationship with his political counterpart, it’s U.S.-North Korea. The One Thing to Avoid Saying About It: Finally, Trump has his own personal Vietnam. Get The Brief. Sign up to receive the top stories you need to know right now. Please enter a valid email address. * The request timed out and you did not successfully sign up. Please attempt to sign up again. Sign Up Now An unexpected error has occurred with your sign up. Please try again later. Check the box if you do not wish to receive promotional offers via email from TIME. You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Thank you! For your security, we've sent a confirmation email to the address you entered. Click the link to confirm your subscription and begin receiving our newsletters. If you don't get the confirmation within 10 minutes, please check your spam folder. Contact us at letters@time.com.<doc-sep>Donald Trump has said that when he meets Kim Jong-un in Hanoi’s Metropole Hotel on Wednesday evening, the potential for a deal is “awesome”. Few would argue with that. A move to limit the North Korean arsenal and begin to re-integrate the country back into the international community, would be a significant step away from the brink of nuclear war. If the past is any guide, Trump will declare the meeting a brilliant triumph whatever happens, especially at a time he knows that any news from Hanoi will be sharing a split-screen with his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, saying devastating things about the president. Trump’s character, his past eagerness to please despots, and his political difficulties at home have raised alarm that he may give away significant concessions in Vietnam, and thereby surrender US leverage over North Korea. An account of a draft agreement published by Vox has added to those concerns. It suggested that the US would loosen sanctions in return for vague promises to shut down its main plutonium-producing reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, which produces plutonium. According to this account, the specific details about the closure would be delegated to working groups, allowing North Korea to procrastinate as international pressure waned. The Vox account has not been confirmed and both Trump and Kim are fond of surprises. Trump took to Twitter as he awaited their evening meeting to warn against trying to second guess what he was going to do. “All false reporting (guessing) on my intentions with respect to North Korea,” Trump wrote. “Kim Jong Un and I will try very hard to work something out on Denuclearization & then making North Korea an Economic Powerhouse.” The challenge in Hanoi What will count is whether the Hanoi meeting succeeds in adding substance to the largely rhetorical outcome of the first summit, in Singapore in June. There the two leaders agreed to the “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” but interpreted the phrase in very different ways. Trump presented it as Kim’s pledge to disarm, while Kim was simply repeating a North Korean catchphrase which refers to a vaguely defined, long term process of multilateral disarmament, during which Pyongyang would be freed of constraints and recognised as a nuclear weapons power. Trump’s extravagant claims distracted from the positive outcomes from Singapore. North Korea’s moratorium on nuclear and missile testing endured. Facilities have been dismantled at a missile engine test facility and a tunnel demolished a nuclear test site. Trump meets with Vietnamese PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc ahead of Kim Jong-un summit Photograph: Leah Millis/Reuters Furthermore, a Stanford University assessment concluded that while North Korea was continuing to make fissile material for more bombs, it had slowed down its work on weaponisation – designing and building warheads. “Our findings indicate that the latter outweighs the former, resulting in an overall decreased threat,” the Stanford authors said. Meanwhile, the South Korean government has been pursuing its own talks with Kim that have resulted in a significant decrease in tensions, including concrete protocols to reduce the chance of an accident or miscalculation leading to war. The challenge in Hanoi is much tougher – not just to improve the atmosphere but to put the escalation and nuclear armament of the past decades into reverse. That would involve limiting and beginning to draw down the North Korean arsenal (thought to amount to a few dozen warheads), to agree a way to verify disarmament, and to begin to lift sanctions. These are some of the elements likely to figure in any Trump-Kim agreement in Hanoi. They will either reflect its substance or be conspicuous by their absence. The nuclear weapons programme So far the pause in nuclear and missile testing is voluntary and informal. The US will seek to lock in a no-testing pledge as part of an agreement. The nuclear complex at Yongbyon will be the most important bargaining chip on the table. Kim has told the South Koreans he was ready to shut down the 5 megawatt reactor there, that is the source of North Korea’s plutonium. It is also its main source of tritium, which is required to build thermonuclear, or ‘hydrogen’ bombs. The reactor is being in operation more than 30 years old and approaching obsolescence. North Korea would still be able to make nuclear warheads with highly enriched uranium, and it could have a secret reactor elsewhere. But a real and verified disabling and shutdown of the reactor would be a very concrete step in the direction of disarmament. Yongbyon is also the site of an uranium enrichment plant. Disabling and dismantling it would be another major achievement. The US believe there are other covert plants elsewhere, and will want those to be on the negotiating table too, perhaps at a later stage. Missiles The US is seeking limits on the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the continental US, and wants the existing ICBMs dismantled. This would be of limited comfort to US allies in the region who are within shorter range. Verification Any arms control agreement does not amount to much without a way of demonstrating that disarmament has taken place. At a minimum, North Korea is expected to allow outside inspection of the missile and nuclear test sites it has already started dismantling. Allowing international inspectors, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in particular, back into Yongbyon, would be a much more significant step. Sanctions The US has signalled it is ready to relax its insistence that no sanctions will be lifted until North Korea disarms. It has hinted instead at a phased approach by which some restrictions will be lifted in tandem with steps taken by Pyongyang. The administration’s hands are tied on many US sanctions which are congressionally mandated, but it could persuade the UN security council to relax some international measures, perhaps allowing the expansion of trade and investment between South and North Korea. US military posture In Singapore, Trump surprised US allies by announcing a suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea. That may well be extended in return for the North Korean moratorium on testing.<doc-sep>Talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un have been cut short on day 2 of their second summit after failing to make an agreement. Talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un have been cut short on day 2 of their second summit after failing to make an agreement.... Donald Trump has walked away from signing an agreement on denuclearisation with Kim Jong-un after their meeting abruptly ended. The White House earlier said “no joint agreement was reached” between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim at their closely watched second summit. “But their respective teams look forward to meeting in the future,” press secretary Sarah Sanders wrote in a statement. Mr Trump addressed media at a press conference shortly after the pair were seen heading back to their hotels in the unexpected schedule change. “We literally just left and spent all day with Kim Jong-un who’s quite a guy and quite a character,” he said. “We had some options and at this time we’ve decided not to do any of those. “Sometimes you have to walk and this was just one of those times.” Mr Trump later clarified it was a friendly walk and the meeting ended well. “We shook hands. There’s a warmth we have. We’re positioned to do something very special. “The relationship was warm and when we walked away it was a friendly walk.” Mr Trump said the pair could not reach an agreement on nuclear sanctions. “They wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety and we couldn’t do that,” he said. “We haven’t given up and frankly I think we’ll be very good friends with Korea and North Korea. “I’ve been telling everybody they have tremendous potential. “He wants to denuke, he just wants to do areas that are less important than what we want. “He has a certain vision and it’s not exactly our vision but it’s a lot closer than it was a year ago and eventually we’ll get there. For this particular visit we decided that we had to walk.” Kim returns to Melia after the summit is abruptly stopped. #TrumpKimSummit #HanoiSummit pic.twitter.com/jDVyJLA3k3 — Jake Kwon (@JakeKwon88) February 28, 2019 Earlier Ms Sanders said the pair had “very good and constructive meetings”. “The two leaders discussed various ways to advance denuclearisation and economic driven concepts,” she said. South Korean stocks continued to fall after the abrupt change in the summit schedule indicated potential difficulties. A planned working lunch was cancelled and a signing ceremony was supposed to take place afterwards. Preliminary negotiations had gone over time which caused the lunch’s cancellation. “Something’s gone wrong,” David Speers said on Sky News from Hanoi. BBC’s Jon Sopel said: “It’s hard to overstate what a serious failure this is. After eight months of talks you don’t organise a summit, bring the principals in to put their signature on draft deal - only for it all to turn to dust. A lot of seasoned diplomats had warned of the risks.” A South Korean government official told CNN they were as perplexed as the world now. “The whole world was waiting for an agreement and so were we,” the official said. Mutual ghosting, is this what modern day diplomacy looks like? #HanoiSummit — Valerie (@Va_Cortes_) February 28, 2019 Who knows what's really happening over at #HanoiSummit, but this Trump quote comes to mind. https://t.co/vt4gZo89Wy — the oranckay (@oranckay) February 28, 2019 AWKWARD SIGHTING AT KIM-TRUMP TALKS You’ve no doubt been seeing a lot of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in coverage of the Hanoi summit. But there’s another powerful figure who keeps not-so-covertly popping up, despite her best intentions — the dictator’s sister, Kim Yo Jong. Kim Yo Jong, 30, accompanied her brother on his trip to Vietnam for his second meeting with Mr Trump. Ms Kim is the second-most powerful person in the hermit nation. The NK News describes her as “one of the most trusted members of the North Korean inner circle”, noting how she has been tasked with such important missions as visiting South Korea to attend the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics opening. But despite being her brother’s closest confidant, Ms Kim has kept a firm distance from the two leaders. In footage shared on Twitter, she can be seen awkwardly peering out from behind a wall as Mr Trump and Mr Kim stroll through the hotel grounds with their translators, before making a dash in the opposite direction: Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un's younger sister, has become one of the most trusted members of the North Korean inner circle. Yet... pic.twitter.com/yYWjQWLjWO — NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) February 28, 2019 In other posts, she is seen not-so-subtly disguised behind a tree as the leaders meet other officials just a few metres away: Kim Yo Jong, hovering outside the Metropole Hotel as her brother and the U.S. president talk one-on-one inside. pic.twitter.com/JhbFEVfbVL — Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) February 28, 2019 Kim Yo Jong looking on from the perimeter, as Trump and Kim meet Pompeo and Kim Yong Chol pic.twitter.com/AdJiSkdoqS — Chad O'Carroll (@chadocl) February 28, 2019 During their two-and-a-half day train journey to the Vietnamese capital, a Japanese TV network captured Ms Kim holding a crystal ashtray while her brother smoked a cigarette at Nanning railway station in southern China. Kim Jong Un had a cigarette break this morning at Nanning station in China. Kim Yo Jong can be seen carrying an ashtray for him. Hyon Song Wol also visible in one shot. Pics from TBS Japanhttps://t.co/3imj1VnugQ pic.twitter.com/gu3cATjjiK — Chad O'Carroll (@chadocl) February 26, 2019 Ms Kim has caused controversy in the western media in the past. Last February, social media users lashed CNN for a glowing article on the woman. According to the CNN piece, which compared the woman to Ivanka Trump, Ms Kim had “struck a chord with the public” and is a “a foil to the perception of North Korea as antiquated and militaristic”. The article was slammed for appearing to glorify a key member of North Korea’s brutal regime. LUNCH AND SIGNING CEREMONY COULD BE CANCELLED A planned working lunch between Mr Trump and Mr Kim appears to have been axed.<doc-sep>
CEO of ADL: Seeing a 'blitzkrieg of anti-Jewish' acts across US Dana Bash: This is so telling about where the Republican party is NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 24: Trump Tower stands on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on August 24, 2018 in New York City. Following new allegations over hush money that former Trump attorney Michael Cohen paid to an adult-film actress, the Manhattan district attorneyÕs office in New York City may seek criminal charges against the Trump Organization in the coming days. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) Why GOP is standing in the way of Capitol riot investigation WASHINGTON - NOVEMBER 08: US Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R-VA) remarks on the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld at the US Capitol November 8, 2006 in Washington, DC. Warner said he supports President George W. Bush's nomination of former CIA Director Robert Gates for Secretary of Defense. Warner said he anticipates Gates' confirmation before the end of the year. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), joined by Senate Assistant Minority Leader John Thune (R-SD) (L) and Senate Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), speaks following a Senate Republican Policy luncheon at the Russell Senate Office Building on May 18, 2021 in Washington, DC. Hear what Matt Gaetz said about Paul Ryan before his speech Former GOP senator: If McConnell said this, 'it's shameful' 'Some people have no shame': Biden calls out GOP lawmakers with list U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pose before their meeting during the second U.S.-North Korea summit at the Metropole Hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam February 27, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis (CNN) — President Donald Trump’s Hanoi summit with Kim Jong Un, meant to demonstrate his diplomatic gamble with North Korea is working, instead ended with no joint agreement after Kim insisted all US sanctions be lifted on his country. That was a bridge too far for the US President, who said Kim offered to take some steps toward dismantling his nuclear arsenal but not enough to warrant ending the debilitating sanctions regime on the country. “Sometimes you have to walk,” Trump said during a news conference following the conclusion of the summit, which broke up earlier than planned. “This was just one of those times.” But it was evident from early in the summit that Trump was seeking to tamp down expectations, repeating he’s in no rush to strike a deal even as North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons program. “I’ve been saying very much from the beginning that speed is not that important to me,” Trump said earlier Thursday at the summit’s outset. “Speed is not important to me. What is important is that we do the right deal.” Trump cast the lack of deal as only a short-term disappointment, even though he’d hoped coming into the talks to be able to point to a new, concrete pathway toward denuclearization. A major agreement struck in Hanoi may also have pushed aside embarrassing headlines about Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen testifying the President is a racist conman. The President, who said scheduling Cohen’s testimony during his summit was a “terrible thing,” instead suggested the inconclusive talks with Kim were another step in a lengthy process toward convincing the young leader to abandon his nuclear program. The personal chemistry that Trump has cultivated – and loudly trumpeted – with the young despotic leader remains intact, the President insisted. And the summit ended amicably, without either man storming away. “It was a very friendly walk,” Trump said. ’Closer’ Evan Vucci/AP Still, the absence of a joint agreement reflects an anticlimax for a summit event Trump had hoped would prove naysayers of his diplomacy wrong. He conceded that US and North Korean officials remain at odds about the precise definition of denuclearization, which is the ostensible goal of his efforts. “He has a certain vision and it’s not exactly our vision, but it’s a lot closer than it was a year ago and I think eventually we’ll get there,” Trump said. And he described Kim as singularly focused on ending the sanctions that have crippled his economy and helped bring him to the negotiating table in the first place. Trump said Kim had offered to begin dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility, a step that would have amounted to a major concession. But it wasn’t enough, Trump said, alluding to additional sites that comprise what is a deeply secretive nuclear program.