What’s old is new again. The Milwaukee Brewers made their first move of the trade season earlier today when they acquired Joakim Soria from the White Sox to bolster their bullpen. But according to David Stearns, he and his staff remain “active and engaged” in talks for other additions. The Brewers are believed to be on the lookout for rotation and infield help, and earlier today they were linked to a right-hander from New York with a name that should sound familiar to most fans in the Cream City: Fixing a typo: I asked David Stearns if he cared to shoot down this morning’s Zack Wheeler chatter. “I’ll let all of that be,” he said. “It’s fun for everyone.” — Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) July 26, 2018 As many will remember, Wheeler, now 28, was supposed to be a Brewer in the summer of 2015. He, along with Wilmer Flores, were set to head to Milwaukee in exchange for Carlos Gomez before the Mets decided they were uncomfortable with Gomez’s medical reports. (Hey, can the Brewers get Flores again this time around, too? He’s got a 107 wRC+ and 8 HR in 258 PA while playing 1B/2B/3B.) At that time Wheeler was a young hurler with ace upside who had posted a 3.50 ERA across 285.1 innings in 2013-14, though he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Injuries kept him from appearing the big leagues in 2015 or 2016, but he returned to action and made 17 starts for New York last season. He looked a bit rusty en route to posting a 5.21 ERA with 4.2 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9, but he appears to be fully back now in 2018. Wheeler’s fastball has bounced back to even an firmer level than his pre-surgery velocity, averaging 96.3 MPH this season. He’s relying on his four-seamer quite a bit more often these days and has effectively ditched his sinker; he’s also added a splitter and is mixing his in his changeup a bit more often with his slider and curveball. Wheeler’s run prevention totals aren’t exactly glowing on their face - he owns a 4.33 ERA - but his peripheral statistics paint a much rosier picture about the level of skill he’s actually demonstrated on the mound this season. Wheeler is generating a career-best 10.9% swinging-strike rate while fanning 8.9 batters per nine innings, 109 in total across 114.1 innings this season. He’s cut his free passes drastically and the 3.2 BB/9 he’s issuing would be the lowest total he has ever posted as a big leaguer. Only three qualified starting pitchers are allowing a lower rate of hard contact than Wheeler’s 27%, and so far this year he’s allowed only 11 dingers in 19 starts. So while the right-hander is currently sitting on a below-average ERA, estimators like FIP- (90) and especially DRA- (82) like his performance quite a bit more than the typical run-of-the-mill starter. A move away from New York (28th in baseball with -71 DRS) and to Milwaukee (1st in MLB with +81 DRS) with their terrific defensive unit would surely help Wheeler’s bottom-line results, and the opportunity to work with Derek Johnson could theoretically help unlock even more of the hurler’s potential. Wheeler is earning only $1.9 mil this season and will have one more season of arbitration eligibility remaining next year before reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2019 season. He is seen as the most likely Mets’ pitcher to be dealt before Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline and there has been plenty of interest in his services, while Milwaukee’s front office staff is believed to have their hands in more than a few cookie jars while searching for more upgrades. Perhaps all that means that a deal will come together, but as Morosi tweeted it doesn’t sound like anything is close at this time. Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs<doc-sep>The Mets and Brewers have discussed trading Asdrubal Cabrera and Zack Wheeler, per a report from Ken Rosenthal. The Brewers are two-and-a-half games back of the Cubs in the National League Central and are currently hold the first Wild Card spot. Starting pitching has been a known weakness for Milwaukee, and with Brent Suter tearing his UCL on July 22 and Zach Davies on the shelf with back issues since May 29, the Brewers are definitely in the market for starters. Cabrera has been arguably the most consistent bat in the Mets lineup in 2018, leading the team in home runs and RBI with 18 and 53, respectively, and he’s coming off a season-high four-RBI night against the Pirates on Thursday. Wheeler’s numbers on the season aren’t impressive, but he has pitched much better over the past several weeks. According to Jon Heyman, the Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies, and Braves could also be in the market for Cabrera.<doc-sep>While the Brewers haven’t hit the quite the same type of offensive swoon as they did after the All-Star break last year, it was still pretty clear something had to be done. Despite playing more games than anyone else in baseball to this point in the season, Milwaukee still ranked 17th in baseball in runs scored and 9th in the National League — virtually tied with disappointing clubs like St. Louis and Washington, and significantly better than only San Francisco, New York, Miami and San Diego. Catcher, shortstop and second base were all significant weak spots in the lineup, but second is where it seemed like the quickest and easiest upgrades could be had on the trade market. While Jonathan Villar is rebounding slightly from his terrible 2017 season, he was still hitting .261/.315/.377 with a .304 wOBA and 86 wRC+ before landing on the disabled list. Hernan Perez is hitting .249/.280/.389 with a .289 wOBA and 76 wRC+. Tyler Saladino is hitting .262/.325/.408 with a .320 wOBA and 96 wRC+, but much of that is still being powered by his hot start with the Brewers. In July, Saladino has started to look a lot more like a replacement-level infielder, hitting just .227/.307/.288 with a .270 wOBA and 63 wRC+. The problem with the Brewers’ lineup as it stood was that production from Saladino was being frequently slotted 5th in the batting order because there was simply a lack of other options. It’s tough to score runs when 5 through 9 in the batting order is largely a black hole without much — if any — pop. That’s why a lot of the trade rumors connecting the Brewers to various second basemen made sense. Even when it came to some of the options that have also been slumping this year — specifically Brian Dozier and Jonathan Schoop — those players would have represented an upgrade over what the Brewers were putting into the lineup at the keystone every day. That’s part of what made the trade for Mike Moustakas — and the subsequent announcement that Travis Shaw would be moving to second base — so surprising. It frankly felt like a bit of overkill, or an unncessarily complex solution to a simple problem: just needing someone who had a pulse with the bat at second base. There’s no question that Dozier would have been a perfectly acceptable and sensible solution. He’s hitting .226/.307/.409 this year with a .310 wOBA and 93 wRC+ and carries more power than any of the Brewers’ other options at second base. Schoop also would have been an upgrade, currently carrying a .306 wOBA and 91 wRC+. But it looks like David Stearns felt like that slight improvement wasn’t enough to give the lineup the boost it truly needed, so he went out and traded for a player he’s long had his eye on (you may remember the rumors in the winter that connected the Brewers to Moustakas when he was on the free agent market). Stearns on Moustakas: "We think Mike is one of, if not the best bat currently available.We think his profile fits particularly well in our ballpark, and in our lineup. He puts a lot of balls in the air. He hits with power from the left side; that plays well in Miller Park." — Tom (@Haudricourt) July 28, 2018 Moustakas will come to Milwaukee hitting .249/.309/.468 with 20 home runs, a .330 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. Shaw was already hitting .246/.344/.468 with 19 home runs, a .347 wOBA and a 114 wRC+. Basically, Stearns decided to go next level in improving the offense instead of settling for a more mild upgrade to the lineup, while adding another left-handed bat (both Dozier and Schoop hit right-handed). Player Comparison Player Slash Line wOBA wRC+ Player Slash Line wOBA wRC+ Mike Moustakas .249/.309/.468 .330 107 Travis Shaw .246/.344/.468 .347 114 Brian Dozier .226/.307/.409 .310 93 Jonathan Schoop .245/.275/.445 .306 91 Jonathan Villar .261/.315/.377 .304 86 Tyler Saladino .262/.325/.408 .320 96 Hernan Perez .249/.280/.389 .289 76 The big question with this trade is one that came up almost immediately — will the boost in offense be worth whatever defensive issues may arise from playing Shaw out of position? Shaw is listed at 6’4” and 230 pounds, but plenty of other big guys have started to man the position (including Schoop, who weighs in at 225 pounds despite being three inches shorter) and Shaw has always shown good athleticism defensively at third base. But the production the Brewers were getting at second base was such that Shaw would have to be almost historically bad defensively to cancel out the offensive gains, and as Shaw himself has said, he’s played on the right side of second base enough with the Brewers’ constant shifting that fielding grounders isn’t much of a concern. Where things may get interesting is trying to turn double plays, but the return of Orlando Arcia should hopefully help mitigate some of the defensive concerns up the middle. It doesn’t sound like Stearns and Craig Counsell are too concerned about the potential defensive hit, either. David Stearns on Moustakas/Shaw: “We’re focused on the upside here offensively here. ... The truth is, with the way we move our infielders around, conventional positions don’t apply to us all that much. We ask a lot of all of our infielders to play all over the dirt.” — Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) July 28, 2018 Counsell on Travis Shaw at 2B: "Everything we’ve seen in practice, in pregame, in all of the shifting that we do, we believe that he’s capable of handling it. That’s part of this, for sure. It’s a decision that we believe in." — Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) July 28, 2018 The odds are this experiment will only last for a couple months. Moustakas has a $15 million mutual option for next season, and while there’s a chance he was spooked by the lack of a free agent market this past winter, the Brewers may not feel comfortable paying that much money if this doesn’t go well or they determine Keston Hiura is ready to take over at second base sometime next year. With the likelihood of this being a rental, it’s fair to question whether the Brewers gave up a lot in order to make a playoff push. Brett Phillips could still be a valuable major league center fielder based on his defense and walk rates alone, and will now get a chance to prove it with an opportunity to play every day in Kansas City. That’s something that pretty clearly was never going to happen in Milwaukee once the team signed Lorenzo Cain and added Christian Yelich, essentially locking down the team’s outfield alignment for the foreseeable future. Jorge Lopez has pitched well in low-leverage outings for the Brewers this year, but will be out of options next year and was no longer seen as a potential starting pitcher at the big league level, having been passed up on the depth chart by several other arms. Maybe Phillips and Lopez end up panning out like Cain and Jorge de la Rosa did when the Brewers traded them to Kansas City in separate deals in the past. Even if they do, though, it would be the result of those two finally getting a chance to truly prove themselves at the big league level — something the Brewers simply couldn’t afford to do while they consider themselves a contender, and when they simply have better options right now. Ultimately, the Brewers sent two blocked players who may or may not end up being AAAA-level players away in a deal for a player who could make a big impact over the final 50-60 games. Considering where the Brewers sit in the playoff race right now, even small upgrades may end up making a big difference. Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs<doc-sep>
Over the past few weeks, separate rumors have linked the Brewers to both Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera and pitcher Zack Wheeler. Now it looks like they may be trying to include both players in the same trade package, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. #Mets discussing both Wheeler and Cabrera with #Brewers, sources tell The Athletic. No indication a deal is close. NYM also talking about players separately with other teams. #DBacks one of several on Cabrera, as first noted by @Buster_ESPN. — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2018 Such a deal would allow the Brewers to address two needs at once, adding a solid pitcher to the rotation after the injury to Brent Suter and Zach Davies’ latest setback. Cabrera would bring some offense to the middle infield, although he likely would also be a defensive liability. At this point, though, that’s a risk the Brewers may be willing to take in order to score more runs. Cabrera is hitting .277/.329/.488 with a .349 wOBA and 122 wRC+, but has long been brutal in the field. This year, he’s been “worth” -18 Defensive Runs Saved at second base after being worth -6 DRS there last year. For his career, he’s at -22 DRS at second base and -51 DRS at shortstop. Wheeler famously was nearly a Brewer once before, as the headlining piece of the nixed Carlos Gomez trade to the Mets. Shortly after that deal fell through, Wheeler’s UCL tore and he needed Tommy John surgery, and battled other injury problems since. This year, though, he’s been largely solid, making 19 starts and putting up a 4.33 ERA/3.69 FIP and a 3.68 DRA (Deserved Run Average). That mark would be a large improvement for the Milwaukee rotation, which DRA largely sees as getting lucky, with Junior Guerra getting slapped with a 5.27 DRA, Chase Anderson at 5.05, Jhoulys Chacin at 4.64 and Wade Miley at 5.93. Only Freddy Peralta (3.36) has been better than Wheeler in terms of DRA this year. In terms of what the Mets may be looking for in return, New York could be another potential landing spot for Brett Phillips. The Major League team has been tormented by injuries at that position, and the minor league system is so thin that Tim Tebow likely would have been a September call-up had he not suffered a season-ending injury. Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus