There were times this season when Broadway looked more like a multiplex than a mecca for live theater. With shows like Frozen, Mean Girls and SpongeBob SquarePants clogging the Great White Way, it seemed like there were barely any original ideas left. But a few gems still emerged from the pack—and luckily, it looks like those more innovative works will take the top prizes at this Sunday’s Tony Awards. Read on for our predictions and analysis ahead of Broadway’s biggest night. Best Musical The Band’s Visit Frozen Mean Girls SpongeBob SquarePants All four of this year’s nominees are based on movies or TV shows, but only one of those shows broke away from that format and created (to quote one of its songs) “something different.” The Band’s Visit will ride a wave of rave reviews to claim Tony’s top prize. Best Play The Children Farinelli and the King Harry Potter and the Cursed Child Junk Latin History for Morons Cursed Child won’t need a magic wand to conjure up this trophy. It’s the biggest hit of the Broadway season, and got as many nominations as all four of its rivals combined. So the producers better be prepared to catch the Snitch. Best Revival of a Musical Carousel My Fair Lady Once on This Island Of the top four categories, this is the toughest—all three productions got rave reviews and a boatload of nominations. But we’re giving a slight edge to the Lerner & Loewe classic, which was reimagined for the age of #MeToo. Best Revival of a Play Angels in America The Iceman Cometh Lobby Hero Three Tall Women Travesties This was a stellar year for play revivals—several of these productions richly deserve the statue. But Tony Kushner’s epic masterpiece will take the prize, thanks to its scope (seven hours and two plays), rave reviews and continued relevance. Best Leading Actor in a Musical Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady Joshua Henry, Carousel Tony Shalhoub, The Band’s Visit Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants This category is a true toss-up showcasing many different kinds of acting, from Slater’s hilarious mugging to Shalhoub’s quietly devastating emotion. But Henry’s “Soliloquy” in Carousel was one of the most devastating numbers performed on Broadway this year and should be enough to push him over the top. Best Leading Actor in a Play Andrew Garfield, Angels in America Tom Hollander, Travesties Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh After cruelly losing the trophy for Death of a Salesman in 2012, Garfield will finally win for his harrowing work as Prior Walter in Angels. Best Leading Actress in a Musical Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady Hailey Kilgore, Once on This Island LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical Katrina Lenk, The Band’s Visit Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls Jessie Mueller, Carousel The year’s busiest acting category only has one clear winner. Lenk is hilarious and heartbreaking as cafe owner Dina, especially during her marquee number “Omar Sharif.” Ambrose got rave review as Eliza Doolittle, but it won’t be enough to prevail this year. Best Leading Actress in a Play Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women Condola Rashad, Saint Joan Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower There’s really no contest here. Jackson returned to the stage in grand fashion after two decades in Parliament, making Edward Albee’s classic soar anew. The other three women represent the sole nominees from their shows, so they’ll all go home empty-handed. Best Featured Actor in a Musical Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady Alexander Gemignani, Carousel Grey Henson, Mean Girls Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants Ari’el Stachel, The Band’s Visit Here’s where things get really difficult. Butz got rave reviews, but he’s already got two Tonys so voters may think enough is enough. Lee is an entertaining Squidward, but SpongeBob is more renowned as a technical achievement, than an acting or singing showcase. Henson is hilarious as “too gay to function” Damian, but his show loses points for too much tap (it’s a thing). We’re giving the slightest of edges to Stachel, whose Band’s Visit character exudes charisma. His trademark pickup line “Do you like Chet Baker?” and soulful “song about love” are show highlights, and he’s also been praised for advancing Middle Eastern culture through his work in the show. Best Featured Actress in a Musical Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical Renee Fleming, Carousel Lindsay Mendez, Carousel Ashley Park, Mean Girls Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady This category is a head-scratcher for the opposite reason: None of these women received especially good reviews, so it’s hard to figure out how voters will favor one over another. Mendez gets a small advantage for her appealing work as Carousel‘s ingenue, but her veteran co-star Fleming could also easily triumph. Best Featured Actor in a Play Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed ChildA Michael Cera, Lobby Hero Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero Nathan Lane, Angels in America David Morse, The Iceman Cometh No suspense here: Broadway favorite Lane will win his third Tony Award (and first for a play) as the blustery Roy Cohn in Angels. Best Featured Actress in a Play Susan Brown, Angels in America Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child Deborah Findlay, The Children Denise Gough, Angels in America Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women This is really a two-woman race: Gough won an Olivier Award (the British Tony) for Angels in London. But she wasn’t competing against a co-star as she is here; that’s always a distinct disadvantage because they split the vote. So we’re giving the edge to Metcalf, whose moving, hilarious performance was one of Three Tall Women‘s many pleasures. She was also pretty much the only person to emerge from the recent Roseanne controversy unscathed. Best Director of a Musical Michael Arden, Once on This Island David Cromer, The Band’s Visit Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady Landau made SpongeBob a splashy extravaganza, so voters who might not pick the show for Best Musical could reward it here. But in recent years, this award has skewed more toward smaller, inventively staged shows—so we’re giving Cromer the advantage. Best Director of a Play Marianne Elliott, Angels in America Patrick Marber, Travesties Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh Angels and Cursed Child were both herculean efforts, so this category is close to a draw. But Elliott just won three years ago, while it’s been a six-year drought for Tiffany—so he gets the edge. Best Original Score The Band’s Visit Frozen Mean Girls SpongeBob SquarePants David Yazbek’s beautiful music and lyrics are filled with Middle Eastern flair and will easily win him this trophy. Best Book of a Musical The Band’s Visit Frozen Mean Girls SpongeBob SquarePants This is the one category where Tony will throw Mean Girls a bone. Tina Fey’s hilarious book is easily the best part of the show, and she’s been campaigning for the prize like mad. We love Band’s Visit, but even we admit this is Fey’s to win. What Else to Expect on Tony Night Several Tony winners have already been announced, including Lifetime Achievement honorees Chita Rivera and Andrew Lloyd Webber (who’s apparently DJing a Tony party). The Tonys are also presenting special awards to John Leguizamo and Broadway neophyte Bruce Springsteen, whose intimate Broadway concert broke box office records this season. The 72nd annual Tony Awards air this Sunday, June 10 at 8 p.m. on CBS. Josh Groban and Sara Bareilles will host the show live from Radio City Music Hall.<doc-sep>With “Frozen” likely iced out (it’s not so bad, really), this season’s eclectic slate of new musicals all are likely to bow to “The Band’s Visit.” No other score this year came even close to what David Yazbek, a jazz master, conjured up in his gently feverish dreams. No piece of direction fully compared with David Cromer’s achievement on that show, although, in a different year, Tina Landau’s transformation of a cartoon into a joyous, omnicultural and spectacular inclusive playground would have scored its deserved Tony Award. Landau’s work on “SpongeBob” was remarkable; this was more difficult material than people tend to realize.<doc-sep>Want a sneak peek at the Tony results before Sunday night? While we can’t get ahold of the vote totals in advance, we can make some reasonable estimates using just math. Every year, I predict the Tony Award winners using the results of other theater awards, the categories each show was nominated in and critics' predictions from across the internet. I weight each of these factors by how well they’ve predicted the Tonys in each category in previous years, and then apply that weighting to this year’s nominees to determine their chances. When I performed similar calculations for the 2018 Oscars, my model made 20 correct picks across 21 categories. But there’s no guarantee that the model fares as well for this year’s Tonys: These are percentages, after all, and upsets do happen. That’s what makes award shows like Sunday night's so exciting.<doc-sep>
It's been a thin season for new work on Broadway but a robust one for revivals. That means there's little competition for the frontrunners in the best play and musical categories, with most of the suspense centered on the remounts. The two-part continuation of J.K. Rowling's beloved wizardry saga, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, and composer David Yazbek's intoxicating desert kiss, The Band's Visit, are the new shows to beat. Distinguished play revivals battling it out include Angels in America, The Iceman Cometh and Three Tall Women, while two classic musicals, Carousel and My Fair Lady, go up against an enchanting underdog in Once on This Island. Among star performers vying for Tony honors this year, British stage and screen royalty Glenda Jackson appears to be a sure thing to take home lead actress honors for the first time with her fifth nomination, for Three Tall Women; while Andrew Garfield has a strong shot at lead actor for his work in Angels in America. There's a chance those same productions might double up in the featured acting races, too. After earning a Tony last season for A Doll's House, Part 2, Laurie Metcalf could score her second consecutive win, this time for Three Tall Women. And two-time previous winner Nathan Lane is well-positioned to pick up a third Tony for Angels. The 72nd annual Tony Awards will be presented June 10 at 8 p.m., airing live on CBS (tape-delayed on the West Coast) from New York's Radio City Music Hall. Taking on co-hosting duties are Sara Bareilles and Josh Groban, previous Tony nominees, respectively, for best original score for Waitress and for lead actor in a musical for Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812. The awards will cap off a record-breaking 2017-18 season on Broadway, with grosses nudging $1.7 billion and admissions at 13.8 million. With one week to go before the ceremony, The Hollywood Reporter's chief theater critic, David Rooney, shares his picks for the most deserving nominees, while awards analyst Scott Feinberg reads the tea leaves to predict who will triumph in the top categories — more often than not this year, they're in agreement.