One of the bigger pieces to the Dodgers World Series run has been rookie right-handed starter Walker Buehler. It’s probably fair to say LA probably wouldn’t be playing tomorrow night without the contributions they’ve received from him. They might not have even played a game in October. With the Dodgers down 2-0 quickly, Buehler will play a big role in the swing of their championship odds in his Game Three start tomorrow night. Buehler had one of the more dominant debuts among all rookies this year, especially on the pitching side. He led all 39 qualified rooking starting pitchers in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and fWAR. He’s carried that over past game 162, leading the Dodgers to a game 163 win over the Rockies, along with pitching well in the crucial NLCS Game Seven. Now he’ll play a big role in whether the Dodgers go down to the daunting series score of 3-0. He’s now set to face the Red Sox potent lineup, which is perhaps the best lineup in baseball, a team he has never pitched against in his short career. Boston led baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wOBA. Singling out their splits against right-handers, they’re even better hitters. Diving in deeper, it isn’t hard to see how the Red Sox could present a matchup problem for Buehler. Looking at pitch values, you’ll see that Buehler’s prime secondary reliance is his slider. Results-wise, it was his best offering this year. Minimum 100 innings, only Blake Snell and Miles Mikolas threw a better one this year. Top 10 Slider Pitch Values in 2018 Name Team wSL/C Name Team wSL/C Blake Snell Rays 4.05 Miles Mikolas Cardinals 3.11 Walker Buehler Dodgers 3.10 Trevor Bauer Indians 2.89 Mike Foltynewicz Braves 2.80 Tanner Roark Nationals 2.65 German Marquez Rockies 2.25 Chris Sale Red Sox 2.21 Jaime Barria Angels 2.21 Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks 2.15 Using the league-average xwOBA against sliders as a benchmark (.253), we find that the Red Sox have plenty of their regular hitters sitting above-average on the pitch. As a team, they had the third best xwOBA against sliders. They were the best team against sliders from right-handers. Red Sox hitters against the slider Player xwOBA Player xwOBA J.D. Martinez 0.335 Mookie Betts 0.334 Xander Bogaerts 0.317 Steve Pearce 0.31 Mitch Moreland 0.308 Rafael Devers 0.303 Andrew Benintendi 0.299 Hanley Ramirez 0.289 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.28 Sandy Leon 0.266 LEAGUE AVERAGE 0.253 Eduardo Nunez 0.236 Christian Vazquez 0.214 Brock Holt 0.191 Ian Kinsler 0.136 Narrowing it down to the tendencies of Buehler’s slider, we find that he throws his slider in the zone more than almost any pitcher in baseball. Among 140 pitchers with at least 300 sliders thrown this year, his 55.4 percent zone-percentage is the sixth highest. Highest Slider Zone% Player Results Total Pitches % of Pitches Player Results Total Pitches % of Pitches Jameson Taillon 328 550 59.6 Michael Lorenzen 242 419 57.8 Vidal Nuno 189 333 56.8 Jake Arrieta 368 652 56.4 Max Scherzer 320 568 56.3 Walker Buehler 190 343 55.4 Michael Fulmer 277 522 53.1 Zach Eflin 268 507 52.9 Shane Bieber 212 406 52.2 Andrew Miller 165 316 52.2 And guess what the Red Sox are predictably good at...hitting sliders in the zone. Only the Indians were better at that as a team this season. Team results against in-zone sliders Rank Player xwOBA Rank Player xwOBA 1 CLE 0.329 2 BOS 0.317 3 OAK 0.314 4 MIL 0.313 5 PIT 0.311 6 CWS 0.309 7 NYY 0.309 8 TOR 0.308 9 BAL 0.305 10 LAD 0.303 11 SEA 0.303 12 CIN 0.303 13 LAA 0.302 14 ARI 0.299 15 CHC 0.295 16 DET 0.295 17 COL 0.292 18 STL 0.288 19 ATL 0.286 20 HOU 0.284 21 TB 0.278 22 KC 0.277 23 MIN 0.276 24 WSH 0.275 25 MIA 0.272 26 PHI 0.271 27 SD 0.269 28 TEX 0.265 29 NYM 0.258 30 SF 0.251 I try to not overrate and look too much into single game analysis, but there is plenty to suggest that Buehler could have his issues with the Red Sox lineup, which a lot of pitchers do anyway. But even with the tough task of facing the Red Sox, the Dodgers will need him to out-duel Rick Porcello. In an almost-must-win matchup, expect the Dodgers to have the short leash in play, probably to a further extent than they had with Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu in the first two games. With all this being said, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Walker Buehler and the Dodgers rose to the occasion tomorrow night. LA has made it this far, walking off a slow start, dealing with injuries to star players, fighting to the end for a division title, and pushing their way to a second straight pennant. At the moment, the odds are stacked against them. Patrick Brennan loves to research pitchers and minor leaguers with data. You can find additional work of his at Royals Review and Royals Farm Report. You can also find him on Twitter @paintingcorner.<doc-sep>LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers have seen the future and it’s ace-in-the-making Walker Buehler. Except they need him to deliver now. Buehler will try to yank Los Angeles out of a 2-0 deficit against the Red Sox when the World Series shifts to Dodger Stadium for Game 3 on Friday. Clearly, the Dodgers trust their 24-year-old rookie. He led them to a victory over Colorado in Game 163 that clinched Los Angeles’ sixth straight NL West title. The right-hander also pitched well in Game 7 of the NL Championship Series against Milwaukee. Now, the pressure is on the kid from Kentucky to keep them from falling into a 3-0 hole. “It’s a little bit different than a Game 7 tomorrow,” Buehler said Thursday, “but at the same time, there’s a little bit of backs-against-the-wall-type of scenario.” Since starting the season at Triple-A Oklahoma City, Buehler has impressed as the heir apparent to three-time NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, who could opt out of the final two years of his contract after the World Series. “Walker is a tremendous talent,” Kershaw said after the NL tiebreaker game. “His competitiveness is off the charts, his ability is off the charts.” Buehler was 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 24 regular-season appearances, including one in relief. He was especially good down the stretch, with a 1.55 ERA over his last 12 starts. Schedule DODGERS vs. Red Sox Boston leads series 2-0 Game 1: Red Sox 8, Dodgers 4 Game 2: Red Sox 4, Dodgers 2 Friday: at L.A., 5:09 p.m. Saturday: at L.A., 5:09 p.m. Sunday: at L.A., 5:15 p.m.* Tuesday: at Boston, 5:09 p.m.* Wed.: at Boston, 5:09 p.m.* *if necessary; Games on Channel: 2Channel: 40 See More Collapse He has been the Dodgers’ strongest pitcher in the postseason, even if his numbers don’t support that. He’s 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and at least seven strikeouts in each of his three starts, with three home runs doing much of the damage to his ERA. Buehler said he is excited about pitching at Dodger Stadium. “You know how everything is going to be here, so I think most guys are better at home,” he said. In Game 163 at home, Buehler tossed one-hit ball into the seventh inning and didn’t allow anyone past second base against the Rockies in 90-degree heat. Similar conditions are expected Friday. Buehler’s had one bad inning: Game 3 of the NL Division Series at Atlanta. With Braves fans getting rowdy, he served up a grand slam to Ronald Acuña Jr. in the second inning. Buehler didn’t allow a runner over the next three innings to help preserve the bullpen. In all, he gave up five runs on two hits and three walks in five innings. “Anytime you’re in situations like that, the more that you can get there and live it yourself, I think does nothing but help you,” he said. Buehler was cool on the road in Game 7 of the NLCS. He allowed a homer to Christian Yelich but didn’t walk anyone in 42/3 innings as the Dodgers won 5-1. “To be in a hostile, really boisterous crowd in Milwaukee and for him to keep his composure and to execute pitches speaks a lot to him, not only to compete but to eliminate kind of the outside noise and still stay within a game plan,” manager Dave Roberts said. “It just shows a lot of moxie.” The Red Sox counter with right-hander Rick Porcello, who is 1-0 in two starts this postseason. He also has appeared twice as a reliever, with Boston winning in each of his appearances. The Dodgers could use some innings out of Buehler after neither Kershaw nor Hyun-Jin Ryu made it out of the fifth in the first two games of the Series. “We expect Walker to go out there and pitch well and keep us in the game,” Roberts said, “and offensively, we’ve got to go out there and get a lead.” Back in a National League ballpark, Buehler will be batting, too. He already has his first professional RBI, having singled in the NL tiebreaker game. Buehler and his fastball that touches the high 90s will be taking on a big-hitting Boston lineup for the first time in his career. “He’s got weapons to attack a particular hitter’s weakness and also go to his strengths,” Roberts said. “But the No. 1 thing with Walker is that when he’s good, he’s got good fastball command.” Buehler has been through a lot in his young career. Drafted by Pittsburgh in 2012, he instead chose to attend Vanderbilt and helped the Commodores to the 2014 College World Series title. The Dodgers drafted him the following year and he received a $1.7 million signing bonus. Soon after, he had Tommy John surgery and was sidelined for 1½ years. He finally made his pro debut in August 2016 and quickly was promoted through the minors. The Dodgers called him up in September 2017 and he earned his first major-league victory two weeks later in relief in Philadelphia. In May, Buehler had a no-hitter through six innings against San Diego but Roberts pulled him after 93 pitches. Still, Buehler was part of the first combined no-hitter in franchise history. In June, he briefly went on the disabled list after taking a comebacker in the ribs. Buehler didn’t stay down for long. He came back less than a week later to make his lone relief appearance. The Dodgers have played from behind all season, and the World Series is proving to be no different. “Now it’s time to get back to where we need to be,” Buehler said. •Boston manager Alex Cora said he will not move Mookie Betts from right field to second base to get open a spot in the outfield for designated hitter J.D. Martinez for the games at Dodger Stadium. Betts made 14 starts at second as a rookie in 2014. He played there once this year, for six innings in August after Ian Kinsler was hurt. “Mookie Betts at second? No, he’s not playing second base,” Cora said. “Well, he’s not starting at second base.” •Roberts said left-hander Rich Hill will be the Dodgers’ starter in Game 4 on Saturday. It would be Hill’s third career Series start. He opened two games last year against the Astros, allowing two earned runs in 82/3 innings without getting a decision. He walked four and struck out 12. Hill has made three appearances this year in the postseason, including one in relief, posting a 0-0 record with a 2.61 ERA.<doc-sep>LOS ANGELES — Everyone gets it: The guy who’s been in this precise predicament before, the guy in his first full big-league season and all the guys in between. In this World Series, the Dodgers have looked helpless and defeated. But others have appeared equally lost and recovered. Just not in a while. Can the Dodgers buck the recent trend and revive not only themselves but wider interest in this one-sided Fall Classic, which the dominant Red Sox lead by a 2-0 count? The answer, a sizable part of which will be revealed in Friday night’s Game 3 here at Dodger Stadium, will come largely from a rookie — and partly from a manager who helped author the greatest comeback ever. “For us, right now, it’s a game that we really need to win,” Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts said Thursday at his home ballpark, where both clubs opted not to work out after flying across the country. Los Angeles will turn to freshman Walker Buehler, whose last start came on Oct. 20 in Game 7 of the NLCS at Miller Park, where he allowed just one run in 4 ²/₃ innings to help the Dodgers claim their second NL pennant in two seasons. “It’s probably pretty similar,” Buehler said Thursday, in comparing the intensity and pressure of his last assignment to his next one. “I don’t think tomorrow is do-or-die quite the way Game 7 is obviously, but being down 2-0 in the Series going into it, there’s definitely some pressure there. “But we train for this, this is why we play. I guess [it’s] good pressure.” A Vanderbilt product like Game 2 winner David Price of the Red Sox, Buehler would aid his team greatly by providing more length than did his veteran rotation mates Clayton Kershaw (four-plus innings in Game 1) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (4 ²/₃ innings in Game 2), which would thereby empower Roberts to go to his bullpen less — in particular veteran Ryan Madson, who has inherited five runners so far and let all of them score. Maybe it won’t matter with the way these Red Sox are hitting overall and in clutch situations in particular. “They got some big hits when they needed them,” Roberts said, in a dramatic understatement. Something must change, though. While it could be the location, this is where it must be pointed out that the Red Sox are 5-0 on the road (2-0 at Yankee Stadium, 3-0 at Minute Maid Park) so far this postseason. Perhaps the Red Sox starting veteran right-hander Rick Porcello, after going with southpaws Chris Sale and Price in the first two games, will provide a spark, as the Dodgers figure to field a dramatically different lineup. Their ultra-deep roster gave the Dodgers an all-righty-hitting lineup versus the lefties, yet that didn’t lead to victories. This time, lefty swingers such as Cody Bellinger (the NLCS MVP), Max Muncy and Joc Pederson figure to start. Or maybe these Dodgers, as advanced analytically as any team in the industry, will find a way to tap into Roberts’ memories of being a member of the 2004 Red Sox, who wiped out not just a 2-0 deficit but a 3-0 hole — the only baseball team ever to pull that off — to the Yankees in that ALCS. No team has prevailed after falling behind 2-0 in a best-of-seven series since then, and overall, 68 of 81 teams that have won the first two games have proceeded to win the series. “I think that it’s something where I have lived it, that situation, being down and still coming back,” said Roberts, who famously pinch-ran for Kevin Millar and stole second base in the ninth inning of ALCS Game 4, coming around to score the tying run and sparking the turnaround. “I think the big takeaway is you can’t win four games in one night. Just the focus on one game at a time mentality. That’s as simple as you can put it. … I know that’s echoed in our clubhouse.” If that echo doesn’t stick, then this Series and this season will end with a thud.<doc-sep>
No team in World Series history has come back from a 3-0 deficit. If the visiting Boston Red Sox beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 on Friday night, that's exactly what L.A. would be facing: a Hollywood ending -- just one that the home team very much won't enjoy. MLB Postseason on ESPN Radio From the first pitch of every series to the last out of Game 7, you can catch the entire MLB postseason on ESPN Radio. Listen » The most important thing of the day: Dodgers star rookie Walker Buehler came within one-third of an inning of being credited with the win in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series against the Brewers. It would have been his first postseason victory; he lost his other NLCS start and surrendered a Ronald Acuna grand slam in L.A.'s only Division Series defeat in Atlanta, for which he got a no-decision. You can't fault the 24-year-old for being inconsistent in his first October, but his team needs him to build off his most recent outing -- and come through in another high-stakes start. Harry How/Getty Images World Series Game 3: Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28 ERA in the regular season) vs. Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA), 8:09 p.m. ET, Fox and ESPN Radio The stakes: See above. If the Red Sox win: Get out the brooms; it could be a Saturday night sweep. Sweep or no sweep, though, the Red Sox would very likely return to Boston not to play, but for a parade. Going in to Game 3, history is in their favor: Home teams that win the first two games of a best-of-seven World Series have gone on to win the series 81.6 percent of the time (31-7). And, if they win to go up 3-0, well, we know the percentage on that. Good night and good luck, Los Angeles. If the Dodgers win: It wouldn't be exactly a whole new ballgame, but a convincing comeback in the first of three games at home could shift the momentum enough to make this a series. One key stat to know: Two-out production has been a big story so far -- for both lineups. All four of Boston's runs in Game 2 came with two outs, as have nine of their 12 runs in the Fall Classic. The Red Sox have excelled in this area all postseason, scoring 53 percent (36 of 68) of their playoff runs with two down. The Dodgers? They're just 2-for-20 (.100) with one RBI this series in such situations. Another key stat to know: Sox slugger J.D. Martinez is attempting to become just the sixth player to lead the majors in regular-season RBIs and postseason RBIs, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Dodgers shortstop Manny Machado is right on his heels, though, with 12 October RBIs. If Martinez manages it, he'd join some pretty elite company: Lou Gehrig, Hank Aaron ... J.D. Martinez? Year Player Team Regular-Season RBIs Postseason RBIs 2018 J.D. Martinez Boston Red Sox 130 13 1988 Jose Canseco Oakland A's 124 9 1957 Hank Aaron Milwaukee Braves 132 7 1955 Duke Snider Brooklyn Dodgers 136 7 1940 Hank Greenberg Detroit Tigers 150 6 1928 Lou Gehrig New York Yankees 147 9 Note: Since RBIs became an official stat in 1920 The matchup that matters most: Buehler & Co. vs. Mookie Betts. It's a small sample size, but the presumptive American League MVP is starting to look like himself again in the World Series -- which is bad news for the National League champs. In just two games, Betts is halfway to his hits total in the ALDS and ALCS combined (when he produced eight hits in nine games). He's hitting .500 and slugging .625 in the World Series after hitting .205 and slugging .282 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. That, plus winning all of America a taco with his Game 1 stolen base, means L.A. has its hands full facing a lineup that's plenty potent -- even when Betts isn't at his best. The story on social media: Everything came up rainbows for the Red Sox in Boston, while L.A. fans are seeking (or in some cases creating) encouraging signs of their own.