If we’re being honest, this series is incredibly difficult to predict. There are a few reasons for this. First off, the St. Louis Blues were once the worst team in the NHL. On the final day of the season, they briefly stood atop the Central Division summit before they were surpassed by the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets, the latter of who St. Louis takes on in Round 1. St. Louis had a ridiculous second half of the season, clipping along with a 30-10-5 record since the clock struck midnight at New Years. Winnipeg, by comparison, took a bit of a dump in the same time frame and lost the first-place spot in the Central that they had held for most of the season with an as-near-as-makes-no-difference .500 record of 22-18-3. Winnipeg’s first-half record was first in the division. St. Louis’ was seventh. And that was pretty much reversed over the course of the second half of the year. The Jets even won the season series 3-1, outscoring the Blues 18-10 in that span, including an 8-4 drubbing where Patrik Laine scored five goals. But none of those games happened after Jan. 1. The Jets haven’t faced this re-invented Blues team with their sensational rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington. Binnington began his life as the Blues starter on Jan. 7, posting a shutout, and went on to win 24 of 30 (24-5-1) games he appeared in after that. His save percentage was .927 during that stretch and he finished first in the NHL with a 1.89 goals-against average. It’s in the running for the story of the year in the NHL. With Winnipeg’s struggles and St. Louis’ successes, you can see why this one appears up in the air. On paper, you’d take the Jets. On merit, at least right now, you’d probably bet on the Blues. If Winnipeg has just been conserving the fuel in their gas tank (after running it dry in the Western Conference Final last season), then they’ve pulled the wool over many an eye and could have a pretty good time against St. Louis. But if the likes of Laine (with one goal in his past 19 games) can’t figure it out, and if Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele (who have played a ton of hockey this season) can’t shoulder the load, then St. Louis will have an edge and an upset (if you can even call it that at this point). Winnipeg’s secret weapon here might just be the return of defenseman Josh Morrissey, however. One of the NHL’s best shutdown rearguards is slated for a Game 1 return after missing 20 games with a suspected shoulder injury. Morrissey, alongside Jacob Trouba, form one of the best shutdown pairs in the NHL. And with Dustin Byfuglien now back and acquainted with the game of hockey after missing half the season with separate ankle issues, Winnipeg might be able to finally stem the bleeding on the backend. It should be mentioned that some have wondered if the Jets are all working off the same page during their struggles. It’s legitimate. Wheeler has mentioned the word maturity a couple times now in the last several weeks. Leadership has been called into question, especially when the team brought back Matt Hendricks, widely regarded as one of the best room guys in the NHL. These aren’t the things you want to hear from a team that’s considered a Stanley Cup contender. It certainly causes some concern. How much? Who knows. [NBC 2019 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB] SCHEDULE Wednesday, April 10, 8 p.m.: St. Louis @ Winnipeg | SN, TVAS, NHL Network Friday, April 12, 9:30 p.m.: St. Louis @ Winnipeg | SN, TVAS, CNBC Sunday, April 14, 7:30 p.m.: Winnipeg @ St. Louis | CNBC, SN, CBC, TVAS Tuesday, April 16, 9:30 p.m.: Winnipeg @ St. Louis | CNBC, SN, TVAS *Thursday, April 18, TBD: St. Louis @ Winnipeg | TBD *Saturday, April 20, TBD: Winnipeg @ St. Louis | TBD *Monday, April 22, TBD: St. Louis @ Winnipeg | TBD FORWARDS BLUES: A big key to this series is if Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O'Reilly can keep leading the team on the scoresheet. Both players, especially Tarasenko, were big reasons why the team won games at the other end of the ice. It should be noted that the Blues have 13 players with at least 10 goals this season. Sure, that includes a couple defensemen, but it shows they have depth behind the two mentioned above. The Blues need to carry possession and work within the structure that’s got them to where they are. That means being stingy on the backend and turning that into offense the other way. JETS: If Laine had 10 more goals, you’d be calling this a wash for Winnipeg. It probably still is, given the robust nature of their talent up front. Laine only scored 30 this season, which happens when one of the hottest shots in the NHL finds itself stuck in a deep freeze. Scheifele led the Jets with 38 markers and probably would have hit 40 is not for slow down at the end of the year. Still, he had a career year and his playoffs last season, before the Jets were bounced, were a display of dominance. If he can rekindle that, that will go a long way in this season. Should also mention Wheeler’s 71 assists, a franchise mark from the elite passer. Winnipeg’s biggest question here is if they’ll find that depth scoring (and if Laine can figure it out). The Jets brought in Kevin Hayes from the New York Rangers at the trade deadline and will be looking to him to shoulder some of that, along with Nikolaj Ehlers ADVANTAGE: WINNIPEG: The Jets’ scoring talent is just better. They just need to actually use that talent. DEFENSE BLUES: The Blues allowed the fourth fewest shots against this season, which has certainly allowed Binnington to ease into his new role as starter. The truth of the matter is St. Louis has a sound defense, one that has contributed to the sixth fewest goals allowed in 2018-19.<doc-sep>The Blues and Jets have never met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They have met together in the regular season a lot - 35 times to be exact (including the Thrashers). The Jets have taken 18 games, while the Blues have won 17. The Jets have averaged almost three goals a game, the Blues have averaged 2.5. Literally zip of that matters. That’s the fun of a new season, a new coach, a new team, and the playoffs. Every year is a refresh, and for the Blues this season they got a mid-season reboot after they concluded their four game series. All four of the games that the Blues played against the Jets were before their post-All Star game winning streak. Evidence of what was to come was present in the Blues’ solid 1-0 victory over the Jets on December 7th. The three games before that are what Jets fans are going to point at as signs of their team’s pending success: when you outscore an opponent 18-9 in three games, it’s fair to say that you may have a good chance of winning a playoff series. Another reason to crow about your odds of winning a playoff series is if you have the one-two scoring punch of Patrick Laine and Mark Scheifele. Laine finished the season with 30 goals and 20 assists, and Scheifele is the team’s top goal scorer with 38 goals and 46 assists. Blake Wheeler is still going strong as the set-up guy with 71 assists. Laine is responsible for most of the damage done against the Blues by the Jets - he scored five goals in one game, after all - but shutting him down leads to outcomes like the Blues 1-0 shutout win. In charge of shutting him down presumably is Jordan Binnington. The new wins record holder for Blues rookies has been stellar all season, and is a main component of the Blues’ success in the second half. Binnington concluded the year with a 1.89 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 32 games played. Connor Hellebuyck, his counterpart in Winnipeg, started 62 games and finished with a 2.90 GAA and a .913 save percentage. Against St. Louis, his three games saw him snag a 2.00 GAA and a .942 save percentage. This series is delightfully difficult to predict. The Jets are a hard, heavy team. The Blues can vacillate between shutting their opponents down and letting them back into the game. If the season series between the two squads were more spread out, fans could make a clearer call on a prediction as to how this series ends. With all of the games coming in the first half, though, it makes it tough to clearly say how we think this series will go. I’m going to refrain from making an official prediction other than a massive shrug. One thing that I can say is that it’s going to be tough, and it’s a crying shame that a series with this much firepower in the forms of Vladimir Tarasenko and Scheifele will be broadcast on CNBC.<doc-sep>This was the year that the Winnipeg Jets were supposed to go the distance, a dominant force that was clearly the team to beat in the West. However, as the season progressed, cracks began to emerge and over the last two months those cracks have erupted, showcasing nothing close to the dominant team many expected of Winnipeg. Despite their struggles, the Jets were on pace to win the division, before falling apart in the final week of the season. Now they have to square off against a St. Louis Blues team that crawled all the way up from last place to tie the Jets in points with 99 by season’s end. On Jan. 2, that gap between the two teams was 18 points. The tides have shifted immensely for both teams. A couple of months ago, many would’ve figured that the Jets could handle whatever the West could throw at them. They’ve struggled since but were in a good spot to face a weaker opponent, until last week.<doc-sep>St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets Series Betting Odds Blues odds: -130 -130 Jets odds: +110 A couple of months ago the St. Louis Blues were allegedly sizing up whether or not to blow it all up, trade their best players and rebuild. They didn’t do that, and instead fired their head coach and called up rookie goalie Jordan Binnington. Those proved to be good decisions. Only the Lightning had a better second half than St. Louis, which went 28-8-5 (122-point pace) over its last 41 games. Binnington played a large role in the Blues’ resurgence, but the truth is that St. Louis was fantastic, top-to-bottom. They owned the league’s best Goal Share and High-Danger Scoring Chance rate at 5v5 in the second half of the season. The Jets are a different story. Winnipeg is very lucky that it banked a lot of points early in the season thanks to a hot run by backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit because the Jets stumbled in the second half, going 21-17-3 in their last 41 games. After getting to the Western Conference Final last season, the Jets had high expectations this time around, but they don’t look very interested in meeting them. A big reason for the Jets’ dip in form over the second act was that they lost their two best defensemen, Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey, to injury. With Morrissey and Byfuglien in the lineup, the Jets operate at above 51% in terms of shot share at 5v5. When they are subtracted, things take a big dip to well below average. Both Byfuglien and Morrissey are expected to be healthy for Game 1 and the Jets will need them, because the Blues have the potential to run through the Western Conference. Finish reading this entire article absolutely FREE in our app GET OUR FREE APP According to their statistical profiles, you can make a sound argument that the Blues are the better team — and they likely are — but there are still concerns for St. Louis. First of all, we don’t have a great way to project goaltending in any case and that becomes even more volatile when the goalie in question is a rookie in the middle of a hot streak. Binnington has been stupendous, sure, but he’s not going to continue to play at this freakish level forever. The good news for Binnington is that the Blues have done a fantastic job limiting scoring chances. The Blues rank third in the NHL in expected goals and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes. They take care of their rookie netminder. That defense-first style should serve the Blues well in this matchup as the Jets boast a fantastic top-six up front. It’s hard to count the Jets out with Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine leading the charge, but they’ll have a tough time cracking St. Louis’ defense. Even though I don’t think that the Jets, with Byfuglien and Morrissey, will be as bad as their statistical profile suggests, and I have concerns about trusting Binnington, I think the market is right to make St. Louis favorites. Winnipeg has had a lot of trouble at 5v5 this season and their woes, coupled with the Blues ability to suppress scoring chances, does not make me confident that the Jets can replicate their run from last season. These odds opened at -120/+100, but quickly moved to -130/+110. I think that St. Louis is still the only viable bet at this price, but I’d look around for a better number than -130, which is the cut-off point for me. Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook and current as of Sunday evening. Data courtesy of Corsica, Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.<doc-sep>
The Winnipeg Jets entered the season among the top Stanley Cup favorites, but they faltered a bit due to injuries. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Blues came back from the depths of the Western Conference basement, and they were one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season. Who will this first-round series? Let's break it down: How they got here: The Blues were one of 2018-19's most compelling teams. After a summer of adding several talented forwards, St. Louis stumbled early. Blues general manager Doug Armstrong fired coach Mike Yeo before Thanksgiving, and by Jan. 2, the Blues had the NHL's worst record. Since then, St. Louis has accumulated more points (65) than any other team, thanks to a burst of production from Vladimir Tarasenko, improved defensive structure and breakout rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington. No matter how the offseason unfolds, interim coach Craig Berube likely already earned himself an extension. The Jets, meanwhile, began to flex their depth and talent in last season's long playoff run, and they brought back nearly the same exact roster. Even though they cruised at the top of the Central Division for most of the season, they never seemed to hit their full stride. A few reasons why: The Jets were without the team's top two defensemen, Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey, for extended periods. And while Finnish sniper Patrik Laine was chasing Alex Ovechkin for the goal-scoring title last season, the 20-year-old had a harder time finding the net in 2018-19, scoring only 30. This team is a Stanley Cup favorite when it's clicking; can it get it together in time? First line: The Jets' trio of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Kyle Connor have been consistently productive, scoring a combined 241 points this season. The Blues' top three -- Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn -- hit 199 points total. Tarasenko took a bit to get going after offseason shoulder surgery, but now he looks as dangerous as ever. Scheifele and O'Reilly are two of the league's elite two-way forwards. Advantage: tie Depth: Though Laine didn't reach his projected goal totals this season, he's a streaky player, and if he gets hot, he can be one of the league's scariest scoring threats. The Jets picked up Kevin Hayes (who has plenty of playoff experience with the Rangers) to be the second-line center, and there are overachieving players on the third and fourth lines. The Blues have two solid scorers on the second line with David Perron and Jaden Schwartz, but overall they can't match Winnipeg's depth. Advantage: Jets Defense: The Jets are a tall, physical team and their defensemen exemplify that. Byfuglien is healthy and once again imposing his strength on anyone who gets in his way (perhaps he'll be a gif star again this spring?). Being without Morrissey would be a bummer. Vince Dunn has progressed into a top defenseman for the Blues; captain Alex Pietrangelo didn't have his best season. St. Louis' other blueliners are capable, but not special. Advantage: Jets Goaltending: The Blues struck gold with the rookie Binnington, who went 24-5-1 with five shutouts in 32 games, with a league-leading 1.89 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, giving him legit consideration for the Calder Trophy. The Blues can always call on Jake Allen (22 games of playoff experience) as backup. Last season, Connor Hellebuyck was in the Vezina Trophy conversation, but the young American regressed a bit with a .913 save percentage and 2.90 GAA. He has playoff experience, and has looked locked in lately. Advantage: tie In The Crease Postgame analysis and highlight show airing each night throughout the season from Barry Melrose and Linda Cohn. Watch on ESPN+ Coaching: St. Louis interim coach Craig Berube and assistant Steve Ott are receiving rave reviews for how they turned the Blues around; the two former NHL players especially improved the defense. However, Paul Maurice, now the NHL's second-longest-tenured coach, guided this team to the Western Conference finals last season. He's the youngest coach in NHL history to hit 1,500 wins. Advantage: Jets Health: Brandon Tanev set career highs in goals (14) and points (29) while playing strong defensively and on special teams. He missed the final two regular-season games with a finger/hand injury. The Jets were happy to welcome Byfuglien back after his missed half the season; Morrissey, however, remains out. Colton Parayko and Tyler Bozak both missed the last regular-season game for the Blues; Bozak's absence was more precautionary.