It’s time for the most difficult betting week on the PGA Tour. The Zurich Classic is the lone team event on the regular Tour schedule. It features 80 tandems playing two rounds of best ball and another two rounds of alternate shot. There’s really nothing that can prepare you for this event, as the only team competitions we see any of these guys play is the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup, but that’s match play and this is stroke play, which calls for an entirely different strategy. One top of that, the majority of this field isn’t good enough to qualify for either the Ryder or Presidents Cup, so we’re basically flying blind with how they’ll perform in this format. The Course This is only the third year of the team-based format but TPC Louisiana has hosted this event 13 of the last 14 years. TPC Louisiana is a 7,445 yard par 72 where — at least when it played as a regular tournament — par-4 scoring and Greens in Regulation (GIR) counted among the most important stats. Over the years a variety of players won this event, from bombers like Bubba Watson to short-hitters like Jason Bohn and Jerry Kelly. The first tandem to win here was Cam Smith and Jonas Blixt. Those two players rely on their short games, but last year it was a ball-striking duo, Scott Piercy and Billy Horschel, that won. In other words, any type of style can succeed here and that adds to the difficulty of finding a winner. The Field A couple of international pairs headline this year’s field. Jason Day and Adam Scott opened as the favorites at +700 with Sergio Garcia and Tommy Fleetwood right behind at +800. I wouldn’t bet either of these teams, but Garcia/Fleetwood is the most interesting of the two. Fleetwood was fifth last year with Chris Paisley, so the upgrade in partners could make this duo a threat. The Patricks (Reed and Cantlay) are the top American partnership at +1200. Cantlay is in a lot better form right now, so it will come down to Reed keeping the ball in play. World No. 11 Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer are fourth off the board at +1600. The defending champs, Piercy and Horschel are tied with Bubba Watson and J.B. Holmes and Tony Finau and Kyle Stanley at +1800. The last notable star is Brooks Koepka, playing with his brother Chase, at +4000. The Favorites I can’t really imagine betting one of these top teams. Name-brand players have struggled in the first two years of this format. It’s a short sample size, but there’s a lot more on the line for the lower-level guys in terms of locking up a tour card and a spot in the PGA Championship. I don’t like guessing at motivation levels and, with the top guys, it’s tough to know if they’re fully invested. The Mid-Tier I started my card here with Chez Reavie and Lucas Glover at +4750. Both are excellent ball-strikers and should keep each other out of trouble during the alternate shot format. Glover’s improved putting this year is also a positive for this team that finished 22nd here a year ago. I also added Ian Poulter and Sam Horsfield at +4200. Poulter has shown his propensity to play well in this kind of format during match play. Meanwhile, Horsfield could get a tour card if this duo comes out on top. Playing with his fellow Englishman should give him plenty of motivation to win this thing. I’m also backing a team that has threatened here twice, Kevin Kisner and Scott Brown, at +3300. Kisner and Brown lost in a playoff two years ago, then last year were in contention again down the stretch before collapsing in alternate shot in the final round. Kisner is in great form this year and while Scott Brown hasn’t popped up much, these two just seem to play well together. My last add in the Mid-Tier is Jhonattan Vegas and Abraham Ancer at +4000. This is another pretty solid pair of players we’ve backed multiple times to win throughout the last calendar year. They seem to be getting a good number here in a field that pretty wide open. Longshots With this tournament being so hard to predict, I’m going to go way off the board with a couple of duos at long odds. As I said before, par-4 scoring is important here and Roberto Castro and Cameron Tringale both rank inside the top 50 in that metric, so I’ll take a shot on this pair at 200-1. Closing out my card will be Ted Potter Jr. and Nate Lashley at 225-1. Lashley was 15th here last year with Rob Oppenheim and Potter has at least won on the Tour before, so he’s an upgrade. This pair is being priced below teams that don’t even have two full-time tour players, so I think this partnership has a chance to succeed. If you can find a top 10 or 20 bet, I think they’ll be of some real value. The Zurich Classic Card Kisner/Brown +3300 (1 unit) Vegas/Ancer +4000 (.825 units) Poulter/Horsfield +4200 (.785 units) Glover/Reavie +4750 (.7 units) Castro/Tringale +20000 (.165 units) Potter Jr./Lashley +22500 (.145 units) Total Stake: 3.62 units Season: -14.37 units<doc-sep>No need to scroll until your fingertip bleeds, the Fantasy Insider is abridged on purpose. What you see is what you get, which is a lot less than usual. Because the Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a team competition, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is off until next week's Wells Fargo Championship. However, both PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done and PGA TOUR Champions One & Done remain active for the pair of two-man tournaments this week. As always, please look for my comprehensive One & Done preview on Wednesday. In addition to targeting selections, I'll explain the strategy for the tournament. Expert Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Legends of Golf at Big Cedar Lodge also will publish on Wednesday. It's the only four-round non-major on the PGA TOUR Champions including in the One & Done, so it begins on Thursday. Power Rankings Wild Card Abraham Ancer & Jhonattan Vegas … Had this event been contested later in 2018, this duo probably would have appeared in the Power Rankings proper, but Ancer has cooled considerably. Vegas is much more locked in now, and while he is longer off the tee, they share a skill set in attacking pins with regularity. Could this be a preview of a partnership for the Presidents Cup? Ancer of Mexico is ninth in points, while Vegas of Venezuela is 23rd. Incidentally, defending champions Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy were last year's Wild Card. Returning to Competition Pat Perez … This is his first action since a T50 at Bay Hill. An injured left calf forced him to withdraw early before THE PLAYERS Championship. He and Jason Dufner are back to improve on last year's runner-up finish at TPC Louisiana, but neither has flashed encouraging form in months. Julián Etulain … The 30-year-old is feeling good enough to get back inside the ropes since a wrist injury led him to withdraw from the Valero Texas Open during the second round on April 5. His career-best finish in 37 starts on the PGA TOUR occurred at TPC Louisiana while teamed with his fellow Argentine, Ángel Cabrera, in 2017. They tied for fifth. This time, Etulain is partnered with another countryman, Andres Romero. Notable WDs Sam Ryder … Logged only six strokes at Harbour Town last week before walking off with a sore left wrist. At 71st in the FedExCup standings, he can afford to rest and recover. Ben Crane … Hasn't played since finishing T33 at Corales, but that's about right given his spot in the conditional status category. Currently 184th in the FedExCup. Steve Stricker & Jerry Kelly … Before missing the cut as a duo at last year's Zurich Classic of New Orleans, they ranked a respective first and second on the Charles Schwab Cup money list on the PGA TOUR Champions. Currently, Stricker is 26th and Kelly 11th. Neither is pegging it in the Bass Pro Shops Legends of Golf at Big Cedar Lodge. Power Rankings Recap – RBC Heritage Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Bryson DeChambeau MC 2 Patrick Cantlay T3 3 Dustin Johnson T28 4 Kevin Kisner T41 5 Xander Schauffele T63 6 Jim Furyk MC 7 Ian Poulter T10 8 Webb Simpson T16 9 Si Woo Kim MC 10 Matt Kuchar 2nd 11 Graeme McDowell T48 12 Sungjae Im MC 13 Francesco Molinari MC 14 Luke Donald T33 15 Branden Grace T61 Wild Card Tommy Fleetwood T25 Sleepers Recap – RBC Heritage Golfer Result Byeong Hun An MC Ryan Armour T63 Jonas Blixt MC Jonathan Byrd T48 Russell Knox MC Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR April 23 … none April 24 … Jason Bohn (46); Jonas Blixt (35); John Chin (32); Carlos Ortiz (28) April 25 … Nick Watney (38) April 26 … J.B. Holmes (37) April 27 … none April 28 … Scott Langley (30) April 29 … Justin Thomas (26)<doc-sep>Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National analyst: Kevin Kisner and Scott Brown (34-1)— Playoff losers year one. Leaders going into the final round last season. With over 300-plus rounds played together, there’s no team in this field who has as much experience in this format as pals Brown and Kisner. Plus, this is the best Kisner’s form has been leading up to this event in the three years of the team format. It would have never happened, but if Captain Jim Furyk was truly concerned about winning, regardless of the blow back he would have received, this pairing would have been nails for that Le Golf National set up at last year’s Ryder Cup. The fact they’re not priced among the favorites in this field just shows how little attention bookmakers are paying to this event.<doc-sep>
One of the PGA Tour’s most unique events takes place this weekend. The 2019 Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana features a two-man format featuring 80 teams with best-ball for the first and third rounds, and alternate shot for the second and fourth. The Australian duo of Jason Day and Adam Scott are the favorites at +800 with Tommy Fleetwood and Sergio Garcia right behind the Aussies at +1000. Patrick Cantlay and Patrick Reed sit third on the board at +1200, Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer are fourth at +1600 and defending champions Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy are +1800. Bet: Joel Dahmen and Brandon Harkins, Top-20 Finish (+280) I’m going to start this section where I left off with the previous one. Again, this is all about these two making the best of a big opportunity here. I went searching for stats to back up this pick and, well, not much really stands out. Harkins drives it pretty long and Dahmen drives it pretty straight and they both make a pretty high percentage of birdies, but that’s about it. Remember, though: This week is largely about ignoring the analytics. Fade the chalk, go with your gut. These guys are +1800 for a top-five finish and +750 for a top-10, but just in case I’m overreaching here, top-20 is a safe play – they just have to finish in the top-quarter of the field! – with a nice potential payoff. Bet: Scott Stallings/Trey Mullinax over Pat Perez/Jason Dufner (-105) This is more of a fade against the Perez/Dufner duo, who are probably getting a little too much respect here after a runner up finish a year ago. Neither has played well at all this year. In 13 combined starts in 2019, the pair has no finishes better than 50th. Perez is also making a return from an Achilles injury and may have a little rust to shake off. Meanwhile, Stallings and Mullinax have popped up on leaderboards throughout the past couple months have both just been making cuts consistently this season. They’re a small underdog in this spot, but probably should be favored. Bet: Martin Laird/Nick Taylor(-105) over Chesson Hadley/Brice Garnett This bet is based strictly on the fact that the Hadley/Garnett team has missed a combined six out of their last nine cuts on Tour. Neither player has had a particularly strong year and I am surprised they are the favorites in this match-up. Martin Laird has missed four out of his last five cuts, himself, but those can be chalked up to awful opening rounds in each of those events. His partner Taylor, on the other hand, has been a cut-making machine, with a few top 25’s sprinkled into the mix, but nothing spectacular. In my opinion, Laird is the best driver of the ball in this foursome and also has the most birdie-making potential. Having him paired with a very steady player like Taylor, while matched up against Hadley/Garnett, who are both in poor form, makes this my favorite bet of the week.