What should we expect when Northern Ireland’s voters go to the polls for their fifth national election in three years? Unlike England, where local elections also take place today, there is a single tier of local government. All 462 of its council seats, split across 11 local authorities, are up for election at once – no fiddly thirds system here – under the proportional single transferable vote system. The political context for this round of elections could not be more different to that which shaped the last contest. In 2014, Sinn Féin and the DUP were into their seventh year sharing power at Stormont. Both lost seats – the first real signs of electoral discontent with their performance in government. Turnout, at a meagre 51 per cent, was low. There was no guarantee a Brexit referendum would ever take place, let alone be won by Leave. Much has changed since. Two assembly elections – in 2016 and then in 2017, after the executive’s collapse – have seen the stock of the two biggest parties of nationalism and unionism fall and rise. The general election that followed saw those to their moderate flank, the SDLP and Ulster Unionists, wiped out at Westminster. Turnout in the elections of 2017 – taking place, as they did, after a divisive Brexit referendum and the implosion of devolved government amid a row over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal – spiked. Public anger at the two-year stalemate at Stormont is growing and, in the wake of the murder of journalist Lyra McKee, the big two are under increasing pressure to restore the institutions. With a new round of talks scheduled for next Tuesday – and a fiercely contested European Parliament election to follow – just how well the parties perform relative to both the last set of council results and the elections in 2017 could have a profound impact on the direction of Northern Ireland’s politics in the immediate term. Counting begins at 8am tomorrow. Here’s what to look out for as results trickle in. Will voters turn out? The dramatic realignment we saw in 2017’s Westminster election was in part a consequence of increased turnout – from 58.4 per cent in 2015 to 65.6 per cent. The same was true of the same year’s assembly election, for which 64.8 per cent of voters turned up – an increase of nearly ten per cent from 54.9 per cent in 2016. On both occasions the increase in turnout primarily benefited Sinn Féin and the DUP – and the elections became what were essentially sectarian zero sum games. If the trend continues, the end result may well be similar – an outcome some have speculated will give both parties the necessary political capital to re-enter the executive. If there is a marked differentiation in turnout between the nationalist and unionist communities, then the upshot might be a result that makes the politics of a deal too tricky for either or both parties: say, for instance, if Sinn Féin finishes with a plurality of councillors. And if turnout slumps, then the clamour to restore Stormont might well recede. Will the DUP suffer for its Brexit stance – or cash for ash? Arguably, the most significant electoral event since 2017 – in terms of its impact on Brexit – was a by-election to the Carrick Castle ward of Mid and East Antrim Borough Council last October. Since co-option was introduced as a means to fill vacant seats in 2010, council by-elections – which, as any Lib Dem will tell you, are a great indicator of the political mood at any given moment in an electoral cycle – are rare in Northern Ireland. That, in part, has made a question frequently posed by pundits at Westminster – whether the DUP will pay an electoral price for its intransigence over Brexit – quite difficult to answer. But the fact that the DUP won in Carrick Castle on an increased vote share at the height of the fallout from the RHI inquiry – which, by any measure, was not at all good for the party’s image – and in the midst of Brexit negotiations that it played a major role in frustrating was instructive. The lesson to be drawn is that the DUP is hegemonic within unionism and does not appear to have suffered electorally for its missteps. Last time these seats were contested, in 2014, the party won a plurality of seats across Northern Ireland as a whole but suffered a net loss of 15 (Sinn Féin, meanwhile, beat them on vote share). The main beneficiaries then were Traditional Unionist Voice – a protest party formed in the wake of Ian Paisley’s damascene conversion to power-sharing with Sinn Féin. But neither they, the Ulster Unionists nor Ukip are in much of a position to seriously challenge this time. In an unconscious echo of her party founder’s infamous exhortation to “smash Sinn Féin” in local elections in the 1980s, Arlene Foster has also urged unionist voters to swing behind DUP candidates in order to weaken the case for a border poll. Losing ground to other unionist parties – or, indeed, a net loss of any kind – will therefore raise serious questions about whether their resilience has in fact been illusory. But the fact that smaller outfits are running fewer candidates this time could yet boost their chances. Can the SDLP survive? The moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party is suffering what appears to be an inexorable decline. In 2014 it managed to keep its losses to just one councillor – but the years since have seen a fall in vote share and the loss of two assembly members, as well as all three of its Westminster seats. Its leader, Colum Eastwood, made a divisive – and some would say desperate – attempt to arrest the decline via a policy partnership (widely interpreted as a precursor to a full-blown merger) with the Republic’s Fianna Fáil earlier this year. No party embodies the irredentist id of southern nationalism like Fianna Fáil, which for decades was the dominant party of government in Dublin until collapsing spectacularly after the 2008 crash. Those two factors have caused a great deal of consternation internally. Senior activists have quit the party in protest at what they contend are their new partners’ right-wing politics – Fianna Fáil, as catch-all populists, are notoriously difficult to place on a conventional political spectrum – as has the party’s best media performer, the South Belfast MLA Claire Hanna. There is also concerned that nailing its colours to Fianna Fáil’s mast could deprive the party of its electoral sine qua non – cross-community appeal to unionist voters. In an STV election, transfers matter. That the party is contesting 27 per cent fewer seats this time implies its objective is survival. But should it end up with markedly fewer seats despite fighting a calculated rearguard, then their long-term prospects will look bleak – and the last throw of the dice may well have turned up a bum result. Who will benefit if it doesn’t? Look out for how Sinn Féin – which, like the DUP, lost seats in 2014 – the cross-community Alliance party, and Aontú, a new pro-life Republican movement that has attracted a handful of defections from the SDLP, do at its expense.<doc-sep>Voting in the council elections in Northern Ireland has closed (PA) Polls have closed following a day of voting in the local government elections in Northern Ireland. A total of 819 local council candidates are standing across 11 council areas. Initial indications from some of the 1,463 polling stations across Northern Ireland suggest a solid turnout, with the good weather appearing to have buoyed numbers casting their ballots. The official turnout figure in the last council election in 2014 was 51%. There will be overnight verification of unused ballot papers returned from the polling stations, with councils ready to begin counting on Friday at 8am. Counting will continue into Saturday before the final picture is known. Northern Ireland’s political leaders cast their votes in their local areas earlier on Thursday. DUP leader Arlene Foster voted in the Co Fermanagh village of Brookeborough while Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O’Neill voted in Clonoe, Co Tyrone. Expand Close Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster votes in the local election in Brookeborough, Co Fermanagh (Michael McHugh/PA) PA Wire/PA Images / Facebook Twitter Email Whatsapp Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster votes in the local election in Brookeborough, Co Fermanagh (Michael McHugh/PA) Ulster Unionist leader Robin Swann voted in Ballymena, SDLP leader Colum Eastwood voted in Londonderry and Alliance leader Naomi Long cast her vote in east Belfast. Among noteworthy races for seats will be Sinn Fein’s former West Tyrone MP Barry McElduff’s efforts to return from the political wilderness. He was forced to step aside after offending the families of those shot dead by republicans at the height of the Troubles in Kingsmill, Co Armagh. Mr McElduff is running for a place on Fermanagh and Omagh District Council in the far west. Expand Close Fermanagh and Omagh District District Council building in Omagh (Liam McBurney/PA) PA Wire/PA Images / Facebook Twitter Email Whatsapp Fermanagh and Omagh District District Council building in Omagh (Liam McBurney/PA) In Newtownabbey, near Belfast, the DUP’s first openly-gay candidate is seeking election. Alison Bennington is standing for a party which has repeatedly vetoed same-sex marriage and holds strong Christian values. It is the first poll since gay journalist Lyra McKee, 29, was shot dead by dissident republicans during disturbances in Londonderry in April. Her death prompted revulsion against the group blamed for the killing and a call by a Catholic priest for politicians to redouble efforts to restore devolved powersharing. Expand Close Northern Ireland has been without devolved government for two years (PA) PA Wire/PA Images / Facebook Twitter Email Whatsapp Northern Ireland has been without devolved government for two years (PA) The Stormont Assembly and ministerial Executive have been suspended since early 2017. Former Sinn Fein deputy first minister Martin McGuinness resigned in a row over the DUP’s handling of a botched green energy scheme. Fresh negotiations are due to begin next week following Miss McKee’s death. The election is being conducted by single transferable vote, a proportional representation system.<doc-sep>LONDON — For months, there has been little doubt that the British electorate is disgusted, disillusioned and furious with the political dysfunction and the chaos of Brexit. But there hadn’t been an outlet for the public to vent that anger — until now. Across much of England, election results for around 8,400 local seats, tabulated on Friday, delivered a vicious backlash against the country’s two main political parties, the governing Conservatives and the Labour opposition. The Conservatives lost more than 1,300 seats, while Labour lost around 80. “What the voters have been saying is, ‘A plague on both your houses,’” Britain’s leading polling expert, John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC. It was a furious electoral tidal wave with unlikely winners: The centrist Liberal Democrats, Greens and Independents picked up hundreds of seats, even as they are marginalized in Parliament. Still, the local results seem unlikely to immediately alter the paralyzed state of Brexit, although that will be tested next week when talks resume between the Conservatives and Labour to try to find a compromise.<doc-sep>
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have vowed to press ahead with seeking a cross-party solution to the Brexit deadlock at Westminster, after voters punished both major parties in local elections. The Conservatives’ net loss of more than 1,300 seats on their 2015 figures marked their biggest defeat since John Major was prime minister. Disillusioned voters deserted the party in droves, including in traditional Tory areas such as Chelmsford and Surrey Heath. Labour had expected to make gains, but instead suffered a net loss, and lost control of a string of councils, including Burnley, Darlington and Wirral. Vince Cable’s remain-supporting Liberal Democrats were the major beneficiaries, taking control of 10 councils, including Cotswold and Winchester, while the Greens and a string of independents also fared unexpectedly well. The Greens’ co-leader Sian Berry described her party’s performance as “a spectacular 24 hours”, adding: “Voters are clearly fed up with the tired old politics of the parties of the past, who have delivered a UK in Brexit turmoil.” Cable told celebrating Lib Dem activists that the result reflected a “story across the country”. He said: “The Lib Dems were written off at one point, but we’re coming back very, very strongly. We’re the big winners of the night throughout the country.” Many Labour MPs suggested the results underlined the urgency for Labour to shift to a full-throated remain position. But Corbyn insisted: “I think it means there’s a huge impetus on every MP, and they’ve all got that message, whether they themselves are leave or remain – or the people across the country – that an arrangement has to be made, a deal has to be done. Parliament has to resolve this issue – I think that is very, very clear.” Close Corbyn allies Ian Lavery and Richard Burgon echoed his message, saying Brexit was detracting from a string of other crucial issues, while shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the message from voters was: “Brexit – sort it.” The prime minister, who was heckled by a party activist as she began to address the Welsh Conservative conference, said the voters were giving a “simple message” to the Conservatives and Labour: “Just get on and deliver Brexit.” She conceded that the results were “very difficult” and apologised to councillors who had lost their seats, saying they were not to blame. Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, speaking at her party’s conference in Aberdeen, said: “I think the message is pretty clear. It seems to be ‘A plague on both your houses.’” The projected national share of the vote, calculated by elections analyst John Curtice for the BBC, put both major parties neck-and-neck on 28% of the vote – both down from 35% a year ago. If that result were replicated in a general election, it would result in another hung parliament. Curtice said the results demonstrated that Labour had been hit just as hard by the Brexit logjam over the past 12 months as the deeply divided Tory party. “The opposition is in no way demonstrating an ability to profit from the government’s misfortunes,” he said. Labour MPs who favour a referendum said the results showed that Corbyn’s attempt to appeal to both remain and leave voters had failed, and he should throw his weight behind a people’s vote. Sunderland MP Bridget Phillipson said: “I fear Labour’s position has been too hesitant and lacking in clarity over the past few months, depressing support among our voters at a time when they expect strength and leadership from my party rather than fudge.” However, Corbyn appeared determined to press ahead with seeking a compromise with the Conservatives – a move that could spark a ferocious backlash from many of his MPs unless it is accompanied by the promise of a “confirmatory” referendum. Participants on both sides of the cross-party Brexit negotiations reported a marked improvement in tone at the start of this week, and several senior Labour figures, including the shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, have played up the idea of a deal. Both parties fear the disappointing set of council results could be dwarfed by the challenge facing them at European parliament elections in three weeks’ time, when political newcomers Change UK and the Brexit party will be standing candidates.