Rebel AIADMK leader TTV Dhinakaran needs a victory today to ensure that he enjoys political clout in the party. After months of anticipation, the fate of the Tamil Nadu government will be decided on Thursday when Justice M Sathyanarayanan delivers the verdict in the case of the disqualification of 18 AIADMK legislators at 10:30 am on Thursday. The 18 dissident AIADMK legislators, loyal to rebel party leader TTV Dhinakaran, were disqualified by Speaker P Dhanapal in September last year for defying the the whip of the party. The meeting between the 18 MLAs with the then Governor Vidyasagar Rao on August 22, 2017 prompted the Speaker to take the decision, as they gave identical letters to the governor 'withdrawing their support' to the chief minister. ALSO READ: TTV Dinakaran asks its MLAs to stay in Courtallam till Madras HC verdict WHAT'S AT STAKE? If the MLAs remain disqualified, there won't be a threat to the government until the next election. Chief Minister Palaniswami will cement his position as the AIADMK's leader and will be in a better position to bargain with the BJP in case alliance talks are held during the general elections. Dhinakaran, on the other hand, needs a victory today to ensure that he enjoys political clout in the AIADMK. Winning could help him take more MLAs away from the Palaniswami camp. The speaker had disqualified the 18 MLAs by exercising his powers under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution (popularly known as the anti-defection law) and the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly (Disqualification on grounds of defection) Rules of 1986. After a prolonged legal battle, the division bench of the Madras High Court gave a split verdict in June, with the then Chief Justice Indira Banerjee upholding the decision of the assembly speaker in disqualifying the MLAs under the anti-defection law. The second judge Justice M Sundar, differed and set aside the order. The case was then referred to a third judge, M Sathyanarayanan, appointed by the Supreme Court. After hearing the cases for 12 days, he reserved his orders on August 31. The verdict in the case could decide the longevity of the AIADMK government led by Edappadi K Palaniswami (see factbox above). In the 232-member strong house, the AIADMK has the support of 115 legislators, including Karunas and three other MLAs. The opposition DMK, along with its allies, has 98 members in the house. WATCH | Amma's supporters secured my win in RK Nagar bypoll: TTV Dhinakaran<doc-sep>AIADMK 18 MLAs disqualification verdict LIVE updates: The Madras High Court on Thursday upheld the Tamil Nadu Speaker’s decision to disqualify the rebel MLAs. AIADMK 18 MLAs disqualification verdict LIVE updates: The Madras High Court on Thursday upheld the Tamil Nadu Speaker’s decision to disqualify the rebel MLAs. AIADMK 18 MLAs disqualification case verdict LIVE news updates: In a major relief to the E K Palaniswami-led government, the Madras High Court Thursday upheld the Tamil Nadu Speaker’s decision to disqualify the 18 rebel AIADMK MLAs. The rebels, supporting the Sasikala-Dhinakaran faction, were disqualified by P Dhanapal, the Speaker of the House, under the 10th Schedule of the Constitution (known as the anti-defection law) after the former expressed lack of confidence in Chief Minister E Palaniswami. The rebels later moved a petition in the HC challenging the Speaker’s decision following which the court restrained the Election Commission from declaring their seats vacant. Read in Tamil. Welcoming the court’s verdict today, the AIADMK, in a tweet, said it is a “correct lesson for the traitors and that democracy has won”. T T V Dinakaran, on the other hand, told news agency ANI, “It is not a setback for us. This is an experience, we will face the situation. The future course of action will be decided after meeting with the 18 MLAs.” Read full story. In the 234-member Assembly, two seats are vacant, including that of late DMK chief M Karunanidhi. The current strength of the Tamil Nadu Assembly is 216. While AIADMK has 116 MLAs, including the Speaker, the Opposition has 98 MLAs.<doc-sep>Chennai: Rebel AIADMK leader TTV Dinakaran has instructed all but one of the 18 disqualified MLAs in his camp to move to a resort near the Tirunelveli district as politics heats up in Tamil Nadu with speculations that the Madras High Court might decide on their fate this week. According to sources, all the rebel MLAs barring P Vetrivel are likely to remain holed up at a resort in Courtallam till the verdict comes out. The decision to shift the disqualified legislators comes just hours after Dinakaran met Sasikala at Bengaluru prison amid reports that the E Palanisami and O Panneerselvam government is trying to poach the MLAs loyal to Dinakaran. Justice M Satyanarayana, the third judge who was appointed by the Supreme Court to be the tie-breaker in the case, had reserved his verdict earlier. The Madras High Court had on June 14 given a split verdict on petitions challenging the disqualification of the 18 legislators, in a breather for the state government. The verdict is being watched closely in political circles in the state as well as at the national stage since it has the potential to decide the future course of politics in Tamil Nadu. If the verdict upholds the disqualification, by-elections will be held on all the seats that would be vacant and it would be an acid test for the AIADMK government, whose popularity has been on the decline since the demise of J Jayalalithaa, as evidenced by the result of the RK Nagar bypoll last year. However, if the Speaker’s decision to disqualify the MLAs is reversed, the EPS government would plunge into a minority and it would have to face a floor test. The 18 MLAs, who owe allegiance to Dinakaran, were disqualified from their membership after they submitted a letter to then Governor C H Vidyasagar Rao, expressing no confidence in CM Palaniswami. In more trouble for the EPS-OPS government, four more MLAs who contested under the AIADMK symbol have also pledged their support to Dinakaran. One of them, Karunas, had sent a notice to the secretary of the Tamil Nadu State Legislative Assembly, seeking the removal of Speaker P Dhanapal. The ruling AIADMK has a strength of 116 MLAs excluding the Speaker but including the four who have now revolted. While 18 MLAs owing allegiance to Dinakaran were disqualified, the DMK has 89 MLAs, its allies Congress has eight and the IUML has one in the 234-member strong House. Dinakaran got elected from RK Nagar last year and is the lone Independent member of the House.<doc-sep>It was an all-too-familiar afternoon for Tamil Nadu politics: a lull, some anticipation and just enough news to spark excitement for the days ahead. Even as reports are rife that the crucial judgement in the 18 MLAs’ disqualification case is due to be delivered soon, RK Nagar MLA and chief of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, TTV Dhinakaran has shifted his loyal coterie to Courtallam, the waterfall town in Tirunelveli district, Tamil Nadu. Speaking to TNM, a source close to the development maintains that the move was Andipatti MLA Thangatamizhchelvan’s idea. “A few MLAs wanted to travel abroad but TTV Dhinakaran said no. He wanted the flock to stick together. Since the verdict is likely to be delivered soon, Thangatamizhchelvan felt that it would be a good idea to go together and pray at the Maha Pushkaram festival that is currently underway in Tirunelveli,” says the source. However, it is pertinent to note that this time around there is more support for the TTV camp with three more MLAs- Kallakurichi MLA Prabhu, Vriddhachalam MLA VT Kalaiselvan and Aranthangi MLA Rathinasabapathy- also joining him. Eighteen Members of the Legislative Assembly of Tamil Nadu were disqualified by the Speaker under the Anti-Defection Act in September 2017. In June this year, the Court delivered a split verdict, referring the case to a third judge ie Justice M Sathyanarayanan. But there has been no word from the Madras High Court on a date for the final judgement. In a politically-charged speech last month, MLA Karunas too had revealed that his loyalties were with the TTV camp, claiming that he was personally responsible for picking the infamous Golden Bay Resort in Koovathur where political brokering had taken place in February 2017. Following a factional war that broke within the ruling AIADMK after former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, Jayalalithaa’s close aide VK Sasikala followed the resort formula, putting up a number of MLAs at the Golden Bay Resort, preventing them from flocking to rival O Panneerselvam’s camp. However, with Sasikala sentenced to four year’s imprisonment in the Disproportionate Assets case in February last year, now Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam struck a deal with current Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami, staking claim to the government. However, their power now rests on a wafer-thin majority of 114 out of 234 MLAs. The strength of the Tamil Nadu assembly is 234 members. The AIADMK won 134 seats in the 2016 Assembly Elections, and then 2 more in bye-polls in November the same year. However, following Jayalalithaa’s demise in December 2016, her RK Nagar seat was won by TTV Dhinakaran, who contested as an Independent MLA. With the death of Thiruparankundram MLA AK Bose in August, another seat fell vacant. Meanwhile, the DMK and its allies have 97 MLAs, one short of the Thiruvarur constituency that fell vacant after former CM M Karunanidhi’s death in August this year.<doc-sep>
The Madras High Court on October 25 will deliver its verdict in the case against the disqualification of 18 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) loyal to All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) rebel leader TTV Dhinakaran. The verdict is expected to be pronounced at 10.30 am on Thursday, according to the cause-list issued by the court on October 24. Fearing horse trading, Dhinakaran has already instructed all but one of the 18 disqualified MLAs in his camp to move to a resort near Tirunelveli district. Possible impact The court's decision is likely to have widespread ramifications on politics in Tamil Nadu. A favourable verdict for the Dhinakaran camp could leave the AIADMK government on shaky grounds. If the court finds the disqualification to be illegal, AIADMK's numerical strength in the Assembly could fall short of the magic number (halfway mark + 1) 117. The strength of the Tamil Nadu Assembly is currently truncated because of a couple of vacant seats, which have been vacant since the deaths of former chief minister and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) patriarch M Karunanidhi and AIADMK MLA AK Bose. However, if the High Court judges that the Speaker's decision of disqualifying the MLAs was legal, the state would witness by-elections in those 18 constituencies. CR Saraswathi, spokesperson of the Dhinakaran faction, had told Moneycontrol earlier: "We are waiting for the judgement. If the verdict goes against us and the Speaker’s decision to disqualify the MLAs is upheld, we will lose men. However, if the verdict is in our favour, we will seek a floor test." "As it is, they (AIADMK) are running a minority government," Saraswathi said. "We are fighting against this government. We are ready for polls and we will beat them. We know the people’s pulse," she added. What is the case about? The issue came to the fore after VK Sasikala's nephew Dhinakaran in August 2017 threatened to pull down the state government with the support of 18 MLAs. Sasikala was a close aide of former Tamil Nadu chief minister and AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa. The MLAs had met the then-Tamil Nadu Governor Chennamaneni Vidyasagar Rao, expressing their dissatisfaction with Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, and saying they were withdrawing their support to the government. In September, Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Speaker P Dhanapal had expelled 18 MLAs under the 10th Schedule of the Constitution, known as the anti-defection law. In June, a two-judge bench of the Madras High Court, comprising of Chief Justice Indira Banerjee and Justice M Sundar had delivered a split verdict in the case. While Justice Sundar had allowed the petition filed by the 18 MLAs against their disqualification, Chief Justice Banerjee dismissed it. Chief Justice Banerjee had noted that the "view taken by the Speaker is a possible, if not plausible view, and I am unable to hold that the said decision is in any way unreasonable, irrational or perverse." Justice M Sundar had disagreed with the chief justice on four grounds, including perversity and violation of Constitutional mandate. Sasikala had installed her nephew Dhinakaran as the AIADMK's Deputy General Secretary after she was sentenced to imprisonment in the disqualification case. Dhinakaran was side-lined from the party when the factions loyal to Palaniswami and former chief minister O Panneerselvam merged. After winning the RK Nagar bypolls, which was Jayalalithaa’s constituency earlier, Dhinakaran formed his own political outfit called the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).