After the remnants of Hurricane Rosa delivered the rainiest October day ever to the Phoenix area this week, causing flooding and closings schools, another hurricane may be inclined to track the same path next week, according to the latest longer-term forecast models. On Tuesday, Sergio became a major hurricane—the ninth of the Northeast Pacific 2018 season so far—and is expected to strengthen, perhaps to Category 4. The biggest question about Hurricane Sergio is, however, Where is the storm ultimately headed? Hurricane Sergio is currently 855 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, and moving west-northwest at 12 miles per hour in the Pacific. With maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, Sergio was a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday. The latest official National Hurricane forecast model shows Sergio taking a more westerly turn in the Pacific soon, away from Baja California and the desert Southwest—for now. Longer term, however, Hurricane Sergio spaghetti models, including the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European models, show Sergio running into resistance in its forecasted westerly path, and perhaps taking a turn back, directly along Hurricane Rosa's path—making landfall along Baja California and moving into Arizona, bringing more rain. Rainfall forecast models across the U.S. for the next two weeks show heavier than normal rainfall for the desert Southwest. Models are indicating quite the wet patter for desert Southwest, Rockies, through the Greater Plains and Upper Midwest over the next two weeks. pic.twitter.com/Mm3t8quAji — MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) October 3, 2018 For the moment, and in the next few days, Hurricane Sergio is moving across open water in the Pacific, encountering favorable conditions for strengthening. "The western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed. By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn westward," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, in its latest forecast update on Sergio. The hurricane is expected to reach peak intensity in the next 36 hours and will begin gradual weakening after that due to drier mid-level air. It is expected to remain a hurricane through the next five days, however. After that, Baja California and the desert Southwest including Arizona will be keeping an eye on Sergio to see if the storm does indeed turn back to the east as longer-term models suggest. If so, more rain could benefit drought-parched areas while parts of Arizona, including Phoenix, might encounter more flooding when they haven't yet cleaned up from Hurricane Rosa's historic drenching.<doc-sep>Hurricane Sergio has made an anticipated turn in the Pacific and is now heading northeast at six miles per hour toward a forecast landfall path as a tropical storm across Baja Mexico on Friday. Sergio is then predicted to track Saturday across southern Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas before settling into Oklahoma as a tropical depression or remnant low late Saturday night, according to the latest National Hurricane Center update. "Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region," the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. Hurricane Sergio is currently a Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, located 1,225 miles west, southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days, according to the latest forecast, but the storm has a high certainty of hitting Mexico and then traversing into the southwest U.S. as a heavy rain maker with flash flooding potential. The rain could also benefit some drought-stricken U.S. areas. "Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday," the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. "At the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States." Sergio is expected to approach Baja California on Friday with winds of 60 miles per hour, with winds of 40 miles per hour as it moves across New Mexico Saturday. Hurricane Sergio's timing for landfall and inland movement is as follows, according to the National Hurricane Center: --Friday, Sergio hits Baja California as a tropical storm. --Late Friday, early Saturday, Sergio moves inland across the Mexico state of Sonora as a tropical storm. --Saturday, Sergio moves inland across the southwest U.S., including New Mexico, and northern Texas, bringing potentially heavy rain. --Late Saturday, early Sunday tropical depression or remnant low from Sergio is in Oklahoma, bring rain to southern Kansas and northern Texas. "Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear surrounding environment," the National Hurricane Center said. "Afterward, the cyclone should enter a region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall."<doc-sep>Latest Updates on Hurricane Sergio, Michael, Tropical Storm Leslie Top video shows Hurricane Michael strengthening in Gulf of Mexico The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Hurricane Sergio and Tropical Storm Leslie. Meanwhile, Hurricane Michael is forecast to hit Florida’s northwestern coast by Oct. 10. Sergio Hurricane Sergio is still continuing to churn out in the eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), but the storm is forecast to take a turn toward the northeast and may bring heavy rain to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas after hitting northwestern Mexico. In an 8 a.m. advisory, the NHC said that the “giant eye” of Hurricane Sergio is “drifting slowly over the Eastern Pacific” Ocean. It has 90 mph winds and is moving slowly at 2 mph to the north-northwest. “A slow northward or northeastward drift is expected today and tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast beginning tomorrow,” said the NHC. “Sergio’s structure has remained nearly steady-state for the past 24 hours. A solid ring of deep convection surrounds Sergio’s giant eye, and there is little evidence of any convective bands. Despite upwelling that is presumably [occurring] beneath the slow-moving hurricane, cloud tops have actually cooled over the past few hours,” reads a forecast discussion of the storm. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, according to the agency. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Prediction Center said there is a marginal to slight risk of “excessive rainfall” caused by the remnants of Sergio in Arizona and New Mexico. Several inches of rain have been observed already across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. The threat for excessive rainfall and flash flooding has increased to a high risk. تم النشر بواسطة ‏‎NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center‎‏ في الأحد، ٧ أكتوبر ٢٠١٨ The storm should weaken quickly after hitting northern Mexico, and it will “likely dissipate over the high terrain of mainland Mexico,” said the discussion. “By tonight, a large trough centered over the southwestern United States will cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement on the track of Sergio, although there is still some uncertainty associated with the timing for when Sergio will reach the west coast of the Baja California peninsula,” it added. Leslie Tropical Storm Leslie is slated to strengthen later on Oct. 8, the NHC said. The storm is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, and it is moving 14 mph to the east-southeast. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but the NHC’s forecast model shows that the storm could hit Western Europe by next week. Hurricane Michael Hurricane Michael is now a Category 1 storm system and is tracking toward the northwestern coast of Florida, according to an 11 a.m. update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Oct. 8. The NHC has forecast that Michael is slated to strengthen and will bring heavy rains, damaging winds, and storm surge. There is a likely chance that it will hit the northeastern Gulf Coast by Oct. 10. The path of the storm could take it directly through Florida’s capital, Tallahassee. Florida Gov. Rick Scott on Oct. 7 declared a state of emergency for several areas in Florida and “also directed the Florida National Guard to activate 500 guardsmen to assist with planning and logistics, and to prepare for response in impacted areas.”<doc-sep>GPM measured rainfall within tropical storm Sergio on October 10, 2018 at 9:13 a.m. EDT (1313 UTC). Measurements indicated that the heaviest rainfall was north of Sergio's eye like feature. Rain was shown to be falling at a rate of over 2.2 inches (55.9 mm) per hour in that part of the tropical storm. Credit: NASA/JAXA, Hal Pierce The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite provided an analysis of the rate in which rain is falling throughout the Eastern Pacific Ocean's Tropical Storm Sergio. Sergio is close enough to Baja California now that it has triggered watches. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center or NHC said, "Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on later tonight or Thursday, Oct. 11." The GPM core observatory satellite's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments measured rainfall within tropical storm Sergio on October 10, 2018 at 9:13 a.m. EDT (1313 UTC). GPM's radar only viewed storms on the eastern side of Sergio while the GMI swath included storms around the center of circulation. Measurements by GMI indicated that the heaviest rainfall was north of Sergio's eye like feature. Rain was shown by GMI to be falling at a rate of over 2.2 inches (55.9 mm) per hour in that part of the tropical storm. GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA. That heavy rainfall is in the forecast as Sergio begins and continues its landfall. Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and Sonora. At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 18.6 degrees north and longitude 123.0 degrees west. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 kph). A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Sergio is being steered toward the northeast by a large mid-latitude trough or elongated area of low pressure. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that rainfall from Sergio and its remnants will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides during the weekend when it passes over the mountainous terrain of northwestern Mexico, the Southern Plains, and the Ozarks. Explore further NASA finds Tropical Storm Sergio on the verge of hurricane status<doc-sep>
Hurricane Sergio, currently a well-organized Category 2 storm in the Pacific moving slowly west, but the latest forecast update still predicts a turn back to the east toward Baja California, Mexico, and the U.S. Southwest next week. Sergio is expected to make landfall as a tropical storm, threatening Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico as a rain-producing tropical system with flooding threat. Sergio will likely make landfall across the central Baja Peninsula, south of Tijuana, Mexico, on Thursday night or Friday, according to Accuweather. Heavy, flooding rain will accompany Sergio and move inland with downpours to the southwest U.S. "The risk of flash flooding and mudslides may be renewed across a portion of Arizona and New Mexico, but these states could use the rain due to persistent drought," Accuweather.com reported. The National Hurricane Center said Sunday that Sergio is taking a more organized, classic hurricane shape. "Somewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of an annular hurricane overnight," the National Hurricane Center said Sunday in its 10 a.m. Central Time update. "The eye of the hurricane expanded, nearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the banding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past hour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat asymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical annular structure, at least not yet." Hurricane Sergio, with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour, will soon make a boomerang move toward Baja California. "The hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward speed of 7 kt.," the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. "Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first northward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of California should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula." Sergio will be a tropical storm in five days, about the time it approaches land, with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. The latest Sergio spaghetti models, which include the official NHC forecast, show the storm turning to the north after landfall, and crossing into either Southern California, Arizona or New Mexico. All of the areas are likely to experience some heavy rain from the storm. Parts of Arizona recently received several inches or more causing localized flooding from Hurricane Rosa.