Makeup and Hairstyling ✓ “Vice” “Border” “Mary Queen of Scots” This Oscar almost always goes to the team that worked on a best-picture contender or a performance that is likely to win an Oscar, which eliminates “Mary Queen of Scots” and the beguilingly offbeat “Border.” We’d at least have a more interesting race if “Suspiria” had been nominated for its transformation of Tilda Swinton into an elderly man, but given the field as it stands, “Vice” is the clear winner for encasing Christian Bale in Dick Cheney’s visage. Animated Short ✓ “Bao” “Animal Behaviour” “Late Afternoon” “One Small Step” “Weekends” Though they are all animated in strikingly different ways, several of this year’s short nominees have an undeniably Pixar feel to them, in that they telescope the span of an entire life into a single heart-tugging montage. Of them, the actual Pixar short has the best chance at winning: Domee Shi’s “Bao,” which played before “Incredibles 2,” is a clever film about a Chinese-Canadian woman who pours her love for her son into the food she makes, with surprising results. Live-Action Short ✓ “Skin” “Detainment” “Fauve” “Marguerite” “Mother” Mad respect to anyone who can make it through all five of these shorts, a beautifully shot but brutal lot in which nearly every story is about children in distress. Two nominees I think voters may respond to are “Fauve,” a harrowing story about two boys encountering quicksand, and “Skin,” a good-looking but incredibly obvious parable about race that stars Hollywood actors like Danielle Macdonald and Jonathan Tucker. “Marguerite” is a wistful story about an elderly woman that will win points for harming no children, but I wonder if it may be too slight to win. “Skin,” for all its familiarity, probably has the inside track. Documentary Short ✓ “Period. End of Sentence.” “A Night at the Garden” “Black Sheep” “End Game” “Lifeboat” This is the strongest of this year’s three short-film crops. Some voters may be drawn to “A Night at the Garden,” a documentary using footage of a 1939 Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden, since it recently made headlines when Fox News refused to run an ad for it. Still, the two strongest entries are probably the ones pushed by Netflix: “Period. End of Sentence.,” an empowering story of Indian women manufacturing sanitary pads, and “End Game,” about an end-of-life care facility. The former, with its welcome moments of lightness and humor, may prove to be Oscar's pick.<doc-sep>Top picks for all categories, including the possible snubs and surprises for "Black Panther," "Green Book," "The Favourite," and more. With every year, younger, more diverse, and international Oscar voters challenge the dominance of the Academy’s core voting body of older and whiter American men. That dichotomy is front and center with Participant Media’s two Best Picture frontrunners: acclaimed and globally streamed Mexican Oscar entry “Roma,” boosted by distributor Netflix’s most robust theatrical release and Oscar campaign to date, and Peter Farrelly’s mainstream (and controversial) crowdpleaser “Green Book,” a Universal release that is currently surfing its five nominations at the theatrical box office. “Roma” (10 nods) and “Green Book” (five) are competing with Oscar perennial Fox Searchlight’s British royal court intrigue “The Favourite” (10) as well as such Hollywood blockbusters as Disney/Marvel’s epic “Black Panther” (seven nods), which celebrates fantasy African kingdom Wakanda, Warner Bros.’ musical redo “A Star Is Born” (eight), whose starry couple Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga will perform Grammy-winner “Shallow” on Oscar night, and tireless producer Graham King’s entertaining (but Bryan Singer-tainted) Queen biopic “Bohemian Rhapsody” (five), which should score victories for Actor frontrunner Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury as well as the movie’s ace sound team. In the middle of the fray are two archly humorous political movies, Annapurna’s $60-million “Vice” (eight), Adam McKay’s razor-sharp portrait of Washington operatives Dick and Lynne Cheney (Christian Bale and Amy Adams), and Spike Lee’s witty anti-Nazi takedown “BlacKkKlansman,” which Focus Features opened on the August 10 anniversary of Charlottesville and took to six nominations. All eight films have their supporters and detractors in the most wide-open award season in recent memory, rife with nasty exposés and poison memes. Only the strong survive! Through it all, “Roma” auteur Alfonso Cuarón and “Green Book” star Mahershala Ali, especially, have somehow sailed through with courtesy and grace, deflecting envy and building well-wishers as they go. That kind of accrued goodwill buoyed “Moonlight” to its surprise Best Picture win. Anne Thompson Not winning any popularity contests are the leaders of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences and its Oscar producers Glenn Weiss and Donna Gigliotti. They have had a bumpy ride as they juggle demands from ABC, Academy members, the movie industry, and the global audience as they try to find the magic balance of an entertaining, compelling and streamlined show. Besides the exit of would-be host Kevin Hart, most of the sturm und drang didn’t spill outside the industry bubble. As a result, critics are poised to pounce even as the Oscars have a popular slate of contenders that could be a real draw. But which one will win Best Picture? From my perspective, there are three true candidates among the eight: “Roma,” “Green Book,” and “Black Panther.” The “Roma” campaign trail, which began back in August with a Golden Lion win in Venice, marks Netflix’s first Best Picture contender. Cuarón could follow his compadres Guillermo del Toro, whose retro fantasy “The Shape of Water” took home Picture and Director last year, as well as the third leg of the Three Amigos, A.G. Iñárritu, who took home Best Picture and Director Oscars for “Birdman” and Director for “The Revenant.” On some level, his friends inspired the filmmaker to do them one better. Like “The Shape of Water,” “Roma” notably missed any SAG nominations, but again, the Academy actors branch came through not only for young newcomer Yalitza Aparicio but also for veteran Marina de Tavira. However, the nominations frontrunner doesn’t always win on Oscar night. Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” scored 12 and won only two; Iñárritu’s splashy outdoor actioner “The Revenant” led the field with 12 and took home three; last year’s “Shape of Water” boasted 13 nominations and won four including Best Picture, and “Lady Bird” with five nominations whiffed all five. While the Netflix awards team may have overcompensated in their efforts to sell a foreign-language art film, their relentless narrative of what went into making this $15-million labor of love impressed voters (and especially the Academy’s some 3,000 craftspeople). By now, we can almost recite its stats by heart: 110 shooting days, lengthy sound creation, elaborate set building, non-professional actors working without scripts, and complex tracking shots. By my tally, “Roma” will grab four wins, including Best Picture. This inclusionary memoir about a family dealing with the parents’ breakup, told from the point of view of the nanny who gets pregnant with an unwanted baby, is the contender that ticks all the boxes: gravitas, equal male-female appeal, and groundbreaking technological achievement. Universal Pictures An alternate scenario leads to Peter Farrelly’s true ’60s road-movie bromance “Green Book” taking home a Best Picture win. The movie won the often predictive Toronto audience award as well as the Producers Guild’s top prize — and showed support from actors, editors and writers. Yet it did not win the Writers Guild or ACE editors guild awards, nor did it land a SAG Ensemble nomination. Significantly, Farrelly did not land a directing nod, and lost the DGA to Cuarón. Only four films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination: “Wings,” “Grand Hotel,” “Driving Miss Daisy,” and “Argo.” Clearly, “Green Book” is in a position to win an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor Mahershala Ali, who swept the precursor awards. Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock Eight films directed by black people have been nominated for Best Picture over the decades, and this year brings a record two, “Black Panther” and “BlackKklansman.” Only two have won: “12 Years a Slave” and “Moonlight.” The Academy tends to be myopic about genre movies. Last year, Patty Jenkins’ DC comic-book movie “Wonder Woman” far exceeded expectations of quality, critical praise, and box office, but was shut out of the Oscar race. That didn’t happen with Marvel’s “Black Panther,” which rode the swells of worldwide acclaim and $1.3 billion worldwide to become a Best Picture Oscar contender. It was always going to be a challenge for Disney to push this Marvel superhero success beyond technical categories. Sure enough, it scored six crafts nominations as well as becoming the first Marvel and superhero movie to earn one for Best Picture.<doc-sep>My name is Alfonso Cuarón. I’m the writer director of “Roma.” This scene takes place deep into the movie. We see our main character, Cleo, who’s a domestic worker working for this middle class family in Mexico City, who’s pregnant. And she’s been taken to this furniture shop to buy a crib for the baby. It’s clear that there’s a lot of activity, and we establish that there is a student demonstration going on. So as they walk towards the furniture shop, they walk in front of riot policemen, but also, a lot of students. You can see them walking with excitement to join the demonstration. In the background, you can hear different chants in support of different affiliations and different universities around the country. And you’ll hear also how they sing the Mexican national anthem. And all of this is taken from historical facts. We see a shot of some window that has a lot of clocks for sale on display. And those are marking the time. And this is important because this is just five minutes before the historical events took place, and I wanted this to be the moment in which the personal and the social come together, and the historical context also then come together. There’s a certain part of existence that you feel that you’re under control. But in my point of view, there is a greater randomness that puts things together or pulls them apart. And finally, the camera reaches the window and looks down into the street to reveal that there’s a paramilitary group attacking the demonstration. And by the way, we shot in the place where the events took place. What you see down on the street, we rehearsed in a football field for many weeks before, because it was going to involve stunts and people running, and I didn’t want any accidents just improvising at the last moment. Because we have close to 1,000 extras down there. So it was a big, big, big operation for us. [speaking spanish]<doc-sep>The Oscars are spreading the love around in a wild awards season, with "Roma" and "The Favourite" landing 10 nominations each Tuesday morning, and "Black Panther" becoming the first superhero film in the running for best picture. "Roma," Alfonso Cuaron's emotional drama about a year in the life of a Mexican maid, and Yorgos Lanthimos' 18th-century costume farce "The Favourite" garnered nominations for best picture and director at the 91st Academy Awards. But they each were led by their women, too: Yalitza Aparicio of "Roma" and Olivia Colman of "The Favourite" are up for best actress, and "Favourite" landed two spots in the supporting category for Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, while Marina de Tavira of "Roma" scored a surprise supporting nomination. Also of note: Spike Lee was honored with the first best picture and best director nominations of his career for '70s cop movie "BlacKkKlansman." More Oscars: See the full list of nominees Biggest snubs including Bradley Cooper, Emily Blunt and 'Crazy Rich Asians' Asians are shut out, again. So are female directors. What gives? Why 'Black Panther' really deserves that Oscar best picture nod In addition to "Roma," "Black Panther," "BlacKkKlansman" and "The Favourite," the films competing for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' big prize – best picture – will be the musically tinged drama "A Star Is Born," period dramedy "Green Book," and Queen biopic "Bohemian Rhapsody" and political satire "Vice." Lady Gaga ("A Star Is Born") and Glenn Close ("The Wife") have tussled for various best actress trophies – they tied for the Critics' Choice Award and Close nabbed Globe gold – and they're up for an Academy Award alongside Aparicio, Colman and Melissa McCarthy ("Can You Ever Forgive Me? "). "Vice" star Christian Bale won Golden Globe and Critics' Choice honors for playing former Vice President Dick Cheney, and he's in a race for the best actor Oscar with Bradley Cooper ("A Star Is Born"), Rami Malek ("Bohemian Rhapsody"), Viggo Mortensen ("Green Book") and Willem Dafoe ("At Eternity's Gate"). Also on a roll is Mahershala Ali ("Green Book"), the Globe winner who leads the Oscar best supporting actor field. In the category with him: Richard E. Grant ("Can You Ever Forgive Me? "), Sam Elliott ("A Star Is Born"), Sam Rockwell ("Vice") and Adam Driver ("BlackKklansman"). The supporting actress category features de Tavira, Globe winner Regina King ("If Beale Street Could Talk"), Amy Adams ("Vice") and "The Favourite" co-stars Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz. And the best director category features Cuaron, Lanthimos, Lee, Pawel Pawlikowski ("Cold War") and Adam McKay ("Vice"). Left somewhat out in the cold was Cooper, who scored a Directors Guild of America nomination for "A Star Is Born" but was snubbed in the best director category; the movie was one of the major contenders heading into Tuesday's announcement but only came away with eight nominations. (Lacking a best director nomination has in the past lessened chances for a best picture win, with a recent exception being Ben Affleck's "Argo.") Another underperformer was "Green Book," with five nominations total for the recent Golden Globe and Producers Guild winner. DGA nominee Peter Farrelly also lost out on a best director nod, and film editing was its lone technical category nomination. The 91st Academy Awards air live on Feb. 24 (ABC, 8 ET/5 PT).<doc-sep>
(CNN) — An unprecedented lack of consensus among the guilds representing actors, directors, writers and producers has flummoxed Oscar prognosticators, with more genuine uncertainty surrounding the best picture race than is usually the case this close to Sunday’s ceremony. The changing face of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which presents the awards, has further complicated the guessing game, since trying to anticipate the future based on the group’s past isn’t a simple task after the Academy made a concerted effort to expand and diversify its membership. Still, there are some key races where the outcome looks pretty clear and frontrunners have definitely emerged. With that as a disclaimer, here’s a rundown of what likely will win – and what in this critic’s estimation should – in most Oscar categories heading into Sunday night’s festivities, which, if form holds for the current awards season, are sure to prompt plenty of grousing whatever the outcome. Your complete viewing guide to this year’s Oscars BEST PICTURE Carlos Somonte/Netflix The cast of Alfonso Cuarón's Neflix film "Roma." Will win: “Green Book.” Should win: “Roma.” Despite considerable criticism of “Green Book” and various off-screen controversies, the fact-based historical film checks off a lot of boxes of past Oscar winners, and already has a Golden Globe and the Producers Guild’s top prize under its belt. What appear to be its principal competitors both face hurdles: “Roma,” not only because it’s a foreign-language film, but thanks to its release via Netflix, which continues to stubbornly withhold box-office data; and “Black Panther,” which has already claimed a Screen Actors Guild Award for outstanding ensemble cast. Both those films are deserving, but “Roma” left a deeper impression than virtually anything else this year. As for “Black Panther,” given the long history of superhero movies being ignored by award shows, Marvel’s breakthrough really does feel like one of those cases where the adage “It’s an honor just to be nominated” applies. ACTOR 20th Century Fox Rami Malek in 'Bohemian Rhapsody' Will win/should win: Rami Malek. “Bohemian Rhapsody” wasn’t a great film, but the extent to which it’s a good one depends almost wholly on Malek’s electric performance. Christian Bale is the stiffest competition, but “Vice” will likely have to settle for a makeup/hairstyling Oscar for the wizardry that somehow transformed the former Batman into Vice President Dick Cheney. ACTRESS Sony Pictures Classics Glenn Close in 'The Wife' Will win/should win: Glenn Close Close has marched through awards season for her role in “The Wife,” and there’s undeniable sentiment behind crowning her distinguished career with this seventh-time’s-the-charm nomination. As for Lady Gaga, her powerful debut has to overcome that playing a rock star doesn’t feel like much of a stretch, while Olivia Colman’s splendid work in “The Favourite” was questionably submitted as a lead performance, leaving co-stars Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone in the supporting bracket. SUPPORTING ACTOR Patti Perret/Unive Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen in 'Green Book' Will win/should win: Mahershala Ali Two years after “Moonlight,” Ali should add a bookend for “Green Book,” which, it’s worth noting, easily could have placed him alongside co-star Viggo Mortensen in the lead actor race. It’s a loaded category, but even with the complaints directed at the movie, hearing any other name would be an upset. SUPPORTING ACTRESS Annapurna Pictures Regina King in 'If Beale Street Could Talk' Will win/should win: Regina King King already has a Golden Globe for her steely portrayal of the concerned mother in “If Beale Street Could Talk,” standing out amid a strong ensemble. Amy Adams was just as terrific in “Vice,” but in a role that didn’t offer as many of the character beats that tend to impress Oscar voters. DIRECTOR Kevin Winter/Getty Images North America/Getty Images Alfonso Cuarón poses poses in the press room during the 76th Annual Golden Globe Awards Will win/should win: Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”) The Mexican director’s deeply personal film about the women who raised him was clearly a labor of love, which – even with misgivings about its Netflix status – should be enough to hold off Spike Lee’s belated directing bid for “BlacKkKlansman.” Cuarón should also prepare two speeches, given the likelihood he’ll walk away with a second statuette, equally merited, for cinematography.