#6 Buffalo vs. #11 Arizona State: NCAA Tournament Betting Odds Spread: Buffalo -4.5 Over/Under: 157 Date: Friday, March 22 Time: 4 p.m. ET TV: TNT Location: Tulsa, OK >> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets. Buffalo (31-3) pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the 2018 NCAA Tournament, defeating 4-seeded Arizona, 89-68. The Bulls continued that high level of play throughout this season, winning the MAC East Conference with a 16-2 record. They’re also 18-13-1 against the spread, including 9-7-1 on the road. Arizona State (23-10) won its First Four game against St. John’s, 74-65. The Sun Devils finished second in the Pac-12 with a 12-6 conference record and are 16-13-1 ATS, including 6-6 on the road. Running with the Bulls Buffalo features the fifth-highest scoring offense in the country at 84.9 points per game. Despite having such a high-speed offense, the Bulls produce the 19th-best offensive turnover rate in the country. They also rank 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 17th in 2-point shooting percentage. The Bulls are led by MAC Conference Player of the Year CJ Massinburg (18.3 ppg), who is shooting 39.6% from 3 on more than 200 attempts. Senior Nick Perkins (14.4 ppg) has thrived coming off the bench and is also deadly (38%) from beyond the arc. Buffalo is also strong on the offensive glass, ranking 71st in offensive rebounding percentage. Sun Devils Can Create Offense Opportunities Arizona State features one of the most athletic starting lineups in the country. Senior forward Zylan Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 3.2 apg) does it all for the Sun Devils inside. He’ll need to have a big game with rebounding and hustle to give Arizona State extra chances against the strong rebounding of Buffalo. The key to the Sun Devils offense is guard Luguentz Dort (16.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg). The 6-foot-4, 215-pound freshman has experienced a high amount of variance in his accuracy from 3. When he’s hot, he’s one of the most versatile scorers in the country , attacking the basket off the dribble with a strong frame. But his inconsistency can lead to poor shot selection, which hurts the Arizona State flow. Sophomore Remy Martin (13.2 ppg, 31.5% 3-point shooting) and junior Rob Edwards (11.3 ppg, 39.2% 3-point shooting) will need to hit any open shots from deep, as Buffalo is 14th-best in the country at defending the 3. The Bulls allow opponents to shoot only 29.8% from beyond the arc. The Pick While there’s always the threat of the First Four team getting hot, Buffalo is too balanced on offense to allow the inconsistent Sun Devils to keep this game close. Expect the Bulls to pull away in the second half, comfortably covering the 4.5-point spread. THE PICK: Buffalo -4.5, would bet up to Buffalo -6 Our Projected Odds: Buffalo vs. Arizona State Get point spreads for this game and every possible tournament matchup with our bracket simulator built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017. Spread: Buffalo -4.5 Buffalo -4.5 Total: 149.5 149.5 Proj Score: Buffalo 77 | Arizona State 72.5 Buffalo 77 | Arizona State 72.5 Win Probability: Buffalo 66% | Arizona State 34% Editor’s note: The opinions on this game is from the individual writer and are based on his research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.<doc-sep>John Minchillo/Associated Press Arizona State's NCAA tournament dreams are still alive. The Pac-12's Sun Devils defeated the Big East's St. John's Red Storm 74-65 in Wednesday's First Four clash of No. 11 seeds in the West Region of the 2019 NCAA men's basketball tournament. Thanks to its victory in Dayton, Ohio, Arizona State will face the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bulls on Friday. Luguentz Dort was brilliant for the Sun Devils with 21 points, four rebounds, two assists and two steals, overcoming a scary moment when he fell hard while going for a loose ball. Zylan Cheatham added 14 points and 10 boards in support. Shamorie Ponds (25 points, four assists and three steals) and LJ Figueroa (19 points and 10 boards) led the way in defeat for the Red Storm. Video Play Button Videos you might like Shamorie Ponds Provides ASU's Backcourt with Ideal Test for Buffalo Arizona State knew it would have its hands full defensively with Ponds entering the game. After all, he is a high-usage offensive playmaker who thrives in transition, dribbles past defenders in half-court sets, hits from three-point range and facilitates when doubled. He averaged 19.5 points and 5.2 assists per game after pouring in 21.6 points a night last season. Ponds was named All-Big East First Team and flashed his talent while carrying the Red Storm offense for extended stretches in Wednesday's game. While he was a daunting matchup, he also provided the Sun Devils with ideal experience heading into the Buffalo matchup. The Bulls are loaded with difference-makers in the backcourt, including leading scorer CJ Massinburg (18.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game behind 39.6 percent shooting from deep) and Jeremy Harris (14.0 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game). It isn't just a two-man show, though, as Jayvon Graves, Dontay Caruthers and Davonta Jordan provide impressive depth. Graves (37.9 percent) and Caruthers (39.5 percent) in particular can light it up from deep if given too much space and will take advantage when Arizona State focuses too much attention on Massinburg. North Carolina is the only team in the tournament that plays with a faster pace than Buffalo, according to KenPom.com's tempo rankings. The Bulls consistently push the pace with so many guards who can handle the ball and won't hesitate to look for opportunities to get out in transition against Arizona State. The fast breaks either set up looks at the rim or open up three-pointers when the defense runs straight to the lane to prevent layups. The tempo and plethora of guards served as primary reasons Buffalo tied for fifth in the country in points per game during the regular season at 84.9. That figures to be an issue for a Sun Devils defense that is 78th in KenPom's rankings and didn't consistently face this type of explosiveness in a weak Pac-12 this season. While the Pac-12 is normally a power conference that would have adequately prepared Bobby Hurley's team for the NCAA tournament, it put only three teams in the field. Oregon was only included because it won the conference tournament; otherwise, it would have been two. That is why the clash with Ponds was so important. The combination of Dort, Rob Edwards and Remy Martin garnered experience against one of the Big East's best players in the pressure-packed environment of the Big Dance and passed the test. Their work on backcourt mate Mustapha Heron—who averaged 14.9 points per game this season—was also critical in the win. He finished with a mere six points on 1-of-12 shooting, which should give the Arizona State backcourt confidence moving into the round of 64. The Sun Devils will likely need that confidence if they are going to upset the Bulls. What's Next? Arizona State will face Buffalo on Friday in the round of 64 in Tulsa, Oklahoma.<doc-sep>Bobby Hurley and Arizona State don’t need to research much to get the lowdown on their first-round NCAA Tournament opponent, Buffalo. Hurley, of course, used to coach the Bulls and when he left for ASU turned the program over to coach Nate Oats. But if his Sun Devils need any reminding that the No. 6 seed that went 31-3 this season is very much for real, they can turn to the tape of Buffalo’s 2018 NCAA Tournament blowout win over No. 4 seed Arizona. Seeded 13th, the Bulls used pace, ball movement and ball screens to pick apart the Wildcats’ defense. And they returned this season having lost only guard Wes Clark from their core. Hurley knows the challenge ahead. “We have a tendency to watch our teams more when we can, and we’re both really busy with our own seasons,” Hurley said Wednesday night after ASU beat St. John’s to advance out of the First Four. “I try to watch Buffalo when I can and root for (Oats). “I just know for sure watching Nate Oats teams, they take on his character and his personality by how hard-nosed he is and how fiery he is. And his kids play extremely hard and they have a chip on their shoulder. The whole mid-major thing, I think they’re tired of that. So it’s going to be a heck of a game.” Here are a few of the challenges that lie ahead for the Sun Devils, who face the Bulls on Friday in Tulsa, Okla. Time: 1 p.m. MST Radio: 98.7 FM Arizona’s Sports Station TV: TNT Buffalo players to know G C.J. Massinburg: The 6-foot-3 senior leads the Bulls in scoring (18.3 points per game) and is second in rebounding (6.6). He’s also their best three-point shooter at 39.6 percent. F Nick Perkins: At 6-foot-8 and 250 pounds, Perkins will be tasked with controlling the paint against the Sun Devils. He can score inside and out, averaging 14.4 points per game while taking a third of his shots beyond the arc, where he hits 37.8 percent of his threes. G Jeremy Harris: The lanky 6-foot-7 wing is a danger off the bounce. He’s averaging 14 points per outing but also is a play-maker who will make the right pass if help defense arrives on drives. Oddly, his three-point shooting hasn’t been on this year. He shot 42 percent from three in 2017-18 but has only hit at a 27 percent clip this year. Containing in isolation Let’s start by examining this arguably unfairly-titled video of Oats’ boys attacking now-Suns rookie center and former Wildcat power forward Deandre Ayton. While not all of these issues were about Ayton, it does highlight how miscommunication or lack of it altogether will bite a team against Buffalo. The team runs a four- and sometimes five-out offense that uses NBA-looking sets to force switching and thus mismatches. Then, the Bulls have the talent to attack in space. Harris, effectively a power forward, found himself in isolation situations over and over against Ayton last tournament, at which point the Bulls cleared it out for him to go one-on-one. ASU doesn’t have two lumbering bigs like Arizona did a year ago. Forward Zylan Cheatham can defend almost every position and will be an asset. Still, expect Buffalo to put starting center Romello White in similar situations and to attack players like Taeshon Cherry, a freshman who tends to gamble on defense, with off-ball and on-ball screens. Spacing and pacing (AP Photo/Tony Dejak) Hurley’s use of a zone defense in the First Four win over St. John’s might help get the Bulls out of their pick-and-roll heavy attacking. That said, it’ll open up opportunities for three-pointers and offensive rebounds. With competent shooters across the the board, Buffalo takes 44.5 percent of its shot attempts at the rim and 43.4 percent from three, taking just 12.1 two-point jumpers, the least efficient shot in basketball. Buffalo excels creating the aforementioned mismatches to set up dribble-drives to the basket. That leads to the layups or open threes on kicks. That’s the lowdown in terms of halfcourt offense. In transition, however, is where the Bulls kill. ASU had spells of lackadaisical games early on in the season and can’t afford poor transition defense against the 16th-fastest-paced team in college basketball. Buffalo uses pushes and secondary breaks to find open shooters, and Oats doesn’t mind if his players pull well beyond the arc in transition. For Arizona State, that’s where point guard Remy Martin’s health comes in. He played 23 minutes against St. John’s. “As we had control of the game I tried to get him in and out of the game as I needed because the last thing I wanted to do was give him a chance to reinjure himself and reaggravate that injury. So I thought he moved fairly well at times,” Hurley told reporters Wednesday. “But he’s one of the toughest kids I’ve ever been around. And he’s going to — he’ll tell me he’s getting close to 100 percent. I don’t know if he’s being completely truthful when he says that, though.” A six-point, six-turnover game against St. John’s showed Martin is not 100 percent, and if he’s not by Friday, he must at least control the tempo — and the ball — to keep the Bulls from running. Limiting turnovers is the biggest task for the Sun Devils, who have the athleticism to run with Buffalo but should have a better chance of winning if they pick their spots to run and hit the brakes when the Bulls are trying to open the game up. “… (To) continue to try to get Remy to 100 percent is going to be key in that department. Buffalo, their guards are really good … they can pressure the ball,” Hurley told Doug & Wolf on 98.7 FM Arizona’s Sports Station. Pounding it inside Contrasting Buffalo’s shot selection style, ASU takes 41.1 percent of its shots at the rim, 35.8 percent from three and 23.1 percent from mid-range. Arizona State found success in the first half against St. John’s by working inside-out through White and Cheatham.<doc-sep>TULSA, Okla. — Nick Perkins was not lamenting the loss of Cinderella status so much as simply laying out the facts. “We didn’t sneak up on nobody no more,” Perkins was saying the day before Buffalo’s first-round matchup against Arizona State. Instead, the Bulls rolled over the Sun Devils. And after a 91-74 victory, the rest of Perkins’ pregame thought seems pretty valid: “Everybody knows who Buffalo is.” Everybody should. The Bulls’ No. 6 seed in the West Region — the highest seed by a MAC team since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 — was proof. After rolling to a 31-3 record and the MAC’s regular-season and tournament championships, they were at least slightly annoyed that it wasn’t a 5, or even a 4. And if you’re looking for an off-brand possibility that could tear through the bracket, Friday’s result offered tantalizing possibility: a veteran lineup that already had a taste of NCAA Tournament success — Buffalo upset Arizona in last year’s first round, setting the stage for this season’s run — and is hungry for (and might be capable of) much more. “Some people are picking us to the Final Four,” senior guard CJ Massinburg had said Thursday. “Some people picking us to get popped in the first round.” They popped Arizona State. And after their 13th consecutive victory, with No. 3 Texas Tech looming on Sunday, here’s fair warning: “We can play with anybody in the country,” senior guard Jeremy Harris said afterward. “It’s good to get a win but we’re not done yet.” The Sun Devils certainly should have known Buffalo. Their coach Bobby Hurley laid the foundation for Buffalo’s current run; Buffalo’s Nate Oats was an assistant on Hurley’s staff before he was promoted to succeed him. The teams occasionally ran similar plays and played a gritty style, but there didn’t appear to be much other crossover, schematically or emotionally. Only Perkins was recruited by Hurley. The remainder of the Bulls’ roster has turned over. And in four seasons as head coach, Oats has built the program into something even more formidable. Hurley said he was impressed with “how hard they compete. And they’re an older team, a bunch of seniors who’ve been to the (NCAA) tournament. They expect to win. It’s no accident they’ve won 32 games.” A year ago as a No. 13 seed, Buffalo pulled off a delightful first-round upset, beating No. 4 Arizona — and there was nothing flukish about it, they won by 21 points. The win Friday against Arizona State was as convincing, but not at all surprising. This squad, which averaged 89 points during the regular season, is deep and very potent, capable of running away from opponents with quick offensive flurries. The Sun Devils (23-11), an inconsistent bunch in a mediocre Pac-12, received one of the last at-large berths, then had to win a First Four game against St. John’s just to advance to Tulsa and the first round; the Sun Devils flew to Tulsa from Dayton, Ohio, arriving in the early morning hours Thursday. But if fatigue was a factor, so was Buffalo’s unrelenting and exquisite offense, pass after pass after pass until something popped wide open. FEAR THE ANTEATERS:With swagger on and off court, UC Irvine stuns K-State COMING UP BIG:It took seven games for the Big Ten to suffer its first loss NCAA BRACKET:Keep up with the winners and losers The Bulls took control midway through the first half with a 21-5 run. Arizona State missed all nine 3-pointers it tried in the first half and finished 3-for-22, but at least as important was Buffalo’s 42-26 rebounding edge despite a size disadvantage. Perkins, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound senior, led four Buffalo players in double figures, scoring 21 points (including 12 in the first half) and pulling down 10 rebounds with a combination of power moves inside, mid-range jump shots and even a 3-pointer. When it dropped with 10:05 left, it pushed Buffalo up 72-49 and served as emphatic punctuation. A few moments later, waiting for play to resume after a dead ball, leading by 25, Harris (who like Perkins scored 21 and had 10 rebounds) looked over at fellow senior Dontay Caruthers and said: “I didn’t know we were gonna do it like this.” But maybe they should have known. Maybe we all should have. And maybe we should expect more. The Bulls’ 2018 fun ended in the second round with a 95-75 loss to Kentucky. Next up this time is Texas Tech, which handled Northern Kentucky, 72-57, earlier Friday and features a grinding style powered by one of the nation’s best defenses. It’s the antithesis of undisciplined Arizona State and will provide a stark contrast to Buffalo’s high-flying, fast-paced offense. It’ll also mean a return to underdog status for the Bulls — which seems fine with them. “There is still more (of a) statement to be made, just to prove we belong with anybody in the country,” said Massinburg, who scored 18 points. “There were some people that picked us to lose this game. They were thinking we’ve been (over-) hyped all year. I think we can play with anybody in the country, and we’re gonna try to make it a deeper run.” Follow USA TODAY Sports' George Schroeder on Twitter @GeorgeSchroeder.<doc-sep>
The sixth-seed Buffalo Bulls had to patiently wait until the final play-in game to find out who they’d meet in the round of 64 at the 2019 NCAA Tournament. But the wait is over and their date is set for Friday at 4 p.m. ET on TNT, and it’s an interesting matchup which should draw plenty of attention. Two 11-seeds in the St. John’s Red Storm and Arizona State Sun Devils met to decide who’d face the Bulls, and the latter emerged. So, Arizona State will continue on in March Madness, but draw a tough game with a team who posted a superb 31-3 record this season and won their conference championship by 14 points. Not only was Buffalo a great team this year, but their three losses were all respectable as well. The first loss for the Bulls came against a top-25 team in the Marquette Golden Eagles while the other two were conference losses by a combined six points. Overall, Buffalo looks poised to be a tough out and they feature a strong core. Buffalo Bulls vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Preview & Betting Line *Note: All betting info courtesy of OddsShark and will be updated once the line is released. Buffalo Bulls (-5 at -110) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Over/Under: 156 The Bulls are led by guard CJ Massinburg, who averaged 18.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from beyond the arc. Nick Perkins (14.4 points, 7.3 rebounds) and Jeremy Harris (14.0 points, 6.1 rebounds) also put together strong seasons and played vital roles in the team’s success. On the other side, Arizona State comes in with a 22-10 record (not including Wednesday’s play-in victory). They had a few tough losses during the season, including falling to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Washington State all by double digits. With that said, the Sun Devils did grab wins against Kansas, Mississippi State, Oregon and Washington to help secure their NCAA tournament bid. Arizona State is led by a solid group which features Luguentz Dort, who averaged 16.1 points and 4.3 rebounds, along with Remy Martin (13.4 points and 5.1 assists). Zyllan Cheatham has the potential to be a problem on the boards, as he averages 11.8 points and 10.4 rebounds this season while also shooting 53.9 percent from the field. Buffalo Bulls vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction & Pick For those filling out brackets and being forced to wait until just hours before Thursday’s tournament action tips off, there’s a chance you may be having a tough time with this one. Although Buffalo received the better overall seed, the Sun Devils are going to be a tough matchup. Both teams can put points on the board in a hurry, but the Bulls rank as the No. 5 offensive team in the nation, averaging 84.9 points per game. That’s going to be tough for Arizona State to keep up with, and while they average 77.8 points (No. 57 in the country), I like Buffalo’s trio to make life tough for their opponent. Expect Massinburg, Perkins and Harris to create problems for the Sun Devils and for Buffalo to gut out a close win against a talented opponent to advance to the round of 32. Prediction: Buffalo Bulls 78, Arizona State Sun Devils 72 Pick: Buffalo Bulls -5 READ NEXT: NCAA Tournament Sleeper Predictions: Top 5 Cinderellas