By Matthew Cappucci | The Washington Post Popular weather vendor AccuWeather took the meteorological community by storm Tuesday, releasing its highly specific outlook for the 2019 tornado season. “AccuWeather predicts there will be 1,075 tornadoes in 2019,” their piece begins, adding that Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and southern Nebraska have the highest risk of twisters this spring. AccuWeather projects a higher frequency of severe weather risks in the traditional Tornado Alley this season. The states to be impacted the most will include Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Texas and Nebraska: https://t.co/hdZ1T1UngV pic.twitter.com/hpMsEKDSj2 — AccuWeather (@breakingweather) February 26, 2019 “The 525 tornadoes expected from March through May is almost exactly the normal average of 526 from March through May,” AccuWeather wrote. In other words, they are expecting one less tornado than average in the spring. Many broadcast and private-sector meteorologists took issue with bold forecast. “They are simply being very unscientific,” wrote Scott Feldman, a meteorology graduate from Iowa State University. “There is really no way to know . . . until a few days before a severe outbreak. It misleads the public into thinking we know more than we do so far in advance.” He said it undermines trust in meteorologists. AccuWeather writes: “We believe warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico will lead to increased moisture transport from the Gulf over the region and ultimately a higher frequency of severe weather in these areas.” Feldman noted warmth and moisture are among many ingredients needed to spin up a tornado and that there is little correlation between sea surface temperatures in April and May and tornado frequency in Oklahoma. Among the leaders in the field of advanced tornado forecasts is John Allen, assistant professor of meteorology at Central Michigan University. He co-authored a paper in 2015 linking U.S. tornado counts to the El Nino/La Nina phase. While “guidance . . . is feasible at leads up to 5 months,” the article notes “substantial variability . . . that may not be explainable.” “I am extremely skeptical of Accuweather’s decision to include a precise number of tornadoes in their forecast,” Allen wrote to The Washington Post. “There is no basis for such precision, as seasonal tornado counts are extremely difficult to predict.” Allen names a number of factors that influence seasonal tornado tallies, including El Nino, Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures and seasonal wind shifts like the Madden-Julian Oscillation or the global wind oscillation. “For the upcoming season, there is a weak El Nino event ongoing, which typically would imply the unstable conditions favorable to tornadoes being less likely over the Great Plains,” Allen said. “In contrast, the Gulf of Mexico is exceptionally warm, which would instead suggest more instability to be available over the U.S. Taken together, this suggests a forecast of mixed signals at best.” Pinning things down to a single number or forecasting one less spring tornado than normal is indicative of a “physical science basis that to me suggests little skill,” Allen wrote. A number of meteorologists urged AccuWeather to “show their work” in an effort to explain the science leading to their 1,075 tornado prediction. AccuWeather declined to discuss its methodology, stating it is a private company and that its methods were proprietary. One Dallas television meteorologist called the post “clickbait.” The company issued a statement, saying “AccuWeather is really proud of its 2019 tornado forecast. We have been in the prediction business for 57 years and have found that the powerful combination of utilizing all the tools and reliable indicators available, including the expertise of our over 100 expert meteorologists, results in predictions with the greatest accuracy.” The Pennsylvania-based company stated “we have the largest and most complete collection of weather data.” Their article said “four states have the highest risk this year,” highlighting Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and southern Nebraska as a corridor for storms to brew. This is unsurprising, considering these four states average the most March – June tornadoes. It is not the first time long-range forecasts have landed AccuWeather in the hot seat. It is known for its controversial 90-day forecasts, which calls for a high of 82 degrees and a 16 percent chance of rain on Memorial Day in Washington. This far in advance, what can be said about the 2019 tornado season is limited. It is all the more reason to pay attention to forecasts when peak season rolls around. “It only takes a single tornado impacting your house for your season to be above average,” Allen said. “AccuWeather predicts there will be 1,075 tornadoes in 2019” Precision ≠ Accuracy. 6th grade science lesson folks. https://t.co/9nXvLh49eI — Ryan Breton (@RyanBretonWX) February 26, 2019 I feel bad for the great folks who work for AccuWeather who are adversely affected by the company's top-level stunting like we saw with Tuesday's tornado thing. I wish folks would make it a point to separate criticism of management from the employees who likely agree at times. — Dennis Mersereau (@wxdam) February 27, 2019<doc-sep>Advertisement Kansas projected to see higher frequency of tornadoes, severe storms in 2019 AccuWeather: Parts of KMBC 9 News viewing area included in high-risk area Share Shares Copy Link Copy With winter storm after winter storm, it’s hard to believe that severe weather season is right around the corner. But it is, and new projections from AccuWeather say it could be a bad one.AccuWeather predicts a high frequency of severe weather risks this spring across Tornado Alley in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska. [ Get weather alerts with the KMBC 9 News app ] “We believe that the more traditional severe weather region of the central and southern Plains will have a higher potential for tornadoes and severe weather more frequently than they have experienced on average the past three years,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.KMBC 9 News Chief Meteorologist Bryan Busby agrees with the projections.“I’ve been saying for a while that this going to be a more active severe weather season for sure,” Busby said. “We had a record low number of tornadoes last year, so that is certainly likely.”AccuWeather said states to be impacted the most will include Oklahoma, Kansas and parts of Texas and Nebraska. The map AccuWeather shared showed Kansas City was just outside of the high-risk area, but many parts of the KMBC 9 viewing area are included in that area.AccuWeather predicts there will be 1,075 tornadoes in 2019, which is 9 percent more than the 987 tornadoes in 2018. However, the figure is 6 percent fewer than the U.S. annual average of 1,141.AccuWeather said the 525 tornadoes expected from March through May are almost exactly the normal average of 526 from March through May. In 2018, just 345 occurred from March through May.<doc-sep>
A recently released study from AccuWeather predicts 9 percent more tornadoes in 2019 than the previous year. Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said Monday, using their AccuWeather’s Superior Accuracy™ technology, they predict 1,075 tornadoes this year, compared to 987 in 2018. The figure is still lower than the annual United States average of 1,141. The number of tornadoes during the regular “tornado season” of March through May is about normal at 525, compared to the average of 526. The high point for tornadoes in Texas is April through May. Pastelok said in some parts of Tornado Alley, a section of the country where tornadoes are historically frequent, there is a perception that the number of tornadoes has lessened so people are not at risk. Over the years, the designation of Tornado Alley has moved south and east, leaving portions of north and central Texas out of the Alley. This year, they are predicting more tornadoes in the traditional Tornado Alley area. The states most impacted this year, based on AccuWeather's forecasting, will be Oklahoma, Kansas, parts of Texas and Nebraska. “We want to make sure people are prepared. We are concerned people may not be ready in the South-Central Plains states, so we are getting is information out well in advance,” he said. AccuWeather works with 10-12 long-range weather trackers and around 100 meteorologists to gather information about weather patterns and determine possible forecasts. “We use the research available from NOAA and others, combine those ideas and at the same time created an analog tool based off that to study past AccuWeather forecasts and combine these thoughts to match patterns,” Pastelok said. The idea of a one number for tornado predictions – rather than a range of numbers – provides a clearer understanding of the risk and better comparison to year-over-year predictions. Weather anomalies that could throw off the regular tornado predictions include a late winter, El Nino and the Polar Vortex. El Nino is a warm ocean current off the Pacific, and, if one hits this spring, it could pull the weather pattern south putting parts of Texas – like San Antonio – that normally don’t have tornadoes at more of a risk. Aside from tornadoes, it could also place parts of south and central Texas at greater risk for severe storms, heavy rains and hurricanes. Pastelok said it may be April before they know how El Nino will affect the Texas storm risk. A late winter, short spring and a Polar Vortex situated in its normal position (it was further south in 2018) also widens the scope of potential tornado risks. “There is the perception that the frequency is down in places of Tornado Alley, but that is not the case. We want people to be prepared for that risk in that general area of the country,” he said. Tornadoes in the U.S. killed just 10 people in 2018 – the lowest number since record keeping began in 1875. Tornadoes usually cause on average 80 deaths each year in the U.S. People are urged to be vigilant this year and prepared for severe weather. Emergency plans should be in place for both businesses and residences.