Australians head to the polls today to vote in five by-elections across Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. Four were triggered by the dual citizenship crisis (Labor MPs Susan Lamb, Justine Keay, Patrick Gorman, Josh Wilson, and Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie stepped down over it), while Labor’s Tim Hammond voluntarily resigned from his WA seat for family reasons. NicholasMcDonnell/SBS Both parties have campaigned hard in the electorates – particularly in Braddon and Longman where the seats are held by Labor on the tightest of margins – but there are broader national implications than simply who wins each seat. At stake is the balance of power in the Lower House, the leadership of the major political parties, and the emergence of campaign strategies ahead of the national election (which Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said on Friday wouldn't happen until 2019). What's at stake for Labor? The by-elections are being described as Labor’s to lose. Four of the five seats are being re-contested by the Labor MPs who were forced to resign due to the dual citizenship saga. If Labor loses Braddon (Tasmania) or Longman (Queensland), it would be the first time a federal opposition has lost a seat to the government in a by-election in nearly a century. Braddon itself is on a margin of 2.2 per cent and Longman sits on a wafer-thin margin of 0.8 per cent. AAP The results are expected to feed the speculation over Labor’s leadership. In the final days of campaigning, Shadow Minister for Infrastructure Anthony Albanese has continued to dismiss suggestions he is interested in leader Bill Shorten’s job. Read More Warnings as immigration takes centre stage in by-elections Polling indicates Mayo (South Australia) is expected to be retained by crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie. The Centre Alliance MP won 34.9 per cent of the vote at the last election, and 55 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote. That leaves Labor in the position of hoping for the best case scenario of maintaining the status quo and holding onto the seats of Braddon and Longman. Political analyst Chris Salisbury from the University of Queensland said the Liberal Party simply picking up just one seat would be enough to threaten Bill Shorten. It “could bring some conjecture as to his hold on the Labor leadership [and] provide something more of a buffer to Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition in Parliament, with a couple of extra seats at their disposal, and also [contribute to] some shoring up of his leadership.” What is at stake for the Liberal Party? The Liberals are hoping to pick up any seats from Labor to increase their one-seat majority in the Lower House. Such a coup would add momentum heading into the national election and could prompt Malcolm Turnbull to announce a snap election to seize an advantage (even though he said he wouldn't). AAP Read More Turnbull heckled during by-election visit Dr Salisbury said Longman’s history suggests the Liberal party is in with a real chance of winning back the seat it last held in 2013. Since the seat was created in 1996, Labor has only won the seat twice in the last eight contests. “This by-election perhaps gives an early chance for voters to revert to what has historically been a sort of blue seat,” Dr Salisbury said. Seat-by-seat breakdown Braddon (Tasmania) Winning the electorate of Braddon in Tasmania’s north-west will be a litmus test for the major parties' signature policies ahead of the next federal poll. It covers around a third of Tasmania and is an historically conservative electorate that is home to large forestry and manufacturing industries. Polls suggest the seat is sitting on a knife edge after changing hands five times over the past 20 years. Labor MP Justine Keay is going up against the same man she snatched the seat from with a small margin of 2.2 per cent in the 2016 election, former Liberal MP Brett Whiteley. SBS Another candidate to watch is independent Craig Garland who has been a professional fisherman on the Apple Isle almost his entire life. He ran in the March state election and managed to get almost 2,000 primary votes despite running on a $780 campaign budget. He is preferencing Labor and the Greens. Longman (Queensland) Longman is a sprawling electorate of about 110,000 voters just north of Brisbane on the Sunshine Coast and faces some serious economic challenges and pressures. The unemployment rate trends well above and median incomes about 20 per cent below than the national averages. Most workers are in trades and clerical jobs and cost of living is their concern. SBS Susan Lamb is recontesting the seat and facing former LNP state Newman government MP “Big” Trev Ruthenberg; a former RAAF corporal, lay head of the Lutheran Church Australia and recently a community liaison for a property developer. Each candidate is expected to get just above 30 per cent of the primary vote, so a win depends on preferences from not just one, but a number of minor parties. There is a particular focus on Pauline Hanson’s One Nation which pollsters say could get 15 per cent of the vote. Mayo (South Australia) The seat extending from the Adelaide Hills to Kangaroo Island was long held by the Liberal Party, first by Alexander Downer. His daughter, Georgina, is being fielded as the Liberals candidate against incumbent Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie. She won the seat from Liberal MP Jamie Briggs in 2016 on a margin of 5 per cent. Health, funding for the ABC, and education have been the key local issues of the campaign. AAP Perth, Fremantle (Western Australia) Labor is expected to retain the seats in Perth and Fremantle as the Liberals are not fielding candidates in the electorates. The only sitting MP unaffected by dual citizenship issues, Tim Hammond won the seat in the central suburbs of Perth in 2016 on a margin of 3.3 percent. Former Kevin Rudd staffer and WA Labor secretary, Patrick Gorman, is expected to win this time around. Fremantle in the south-eastern suburbs of Perth has been a Labor seat for more than 80 years.<doc-sep>Five by-elections across Australia on July 28 - dubbed Super Saturday - could shake up federal politics. Here’s what you need to know. Why is it history-making? * Five is the highest number of federal by-elections held on a single day. * A government has not won a seat from an opposition in a by-election since 1920. What is the political context? * Labor is leading the Liberal-National coalition in national opinion polls. READ MORE Early voting popular in Super Saturday by-elections * Bill Shorten is trailing Malcolm Turnbull in personal popularity and as the preferred prime minister. * The Coalition is emphasising personal and business tax cuts, action on power prices and the benefits of a stronger economy. * Labor says the coalition is wasting taxpayers' money on business tax cuts (rather than spending it on schools, hospitals, roads and pensions) and many workers are unfairly missing out on the benefits from the economy. * One Nation (only running in Longman) is seizing on economic disenchantment, concerns over immigration and a deficit of trust in mainstream parties. * There is residual anger over the dual citizenship crisis which triggered four of the five by-elections. * The next full House and half-Senate election is due by May 18, 2019. SBS News By the numbers * Ahead of the by-elections the House of Representatives comprises: 76 Coalition, 65 Labor, 1 Greens, 1 Katter, 2 Independents, 5 vacancies (four Labor, one Independent). * The Liberal Party is running in three of the five by-elections (Longman, Mayo and Braddon), while Labor is contesting all five. * The Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie is expected to retain Mayo. READ MORE Warnings as immigration takes centre stage in by-elections * Longman and Braddon will be tight contests and could be Liberal gains with the right preference flows. * Perth and Fremantle should be easy Labor retains. What are the consequences? * Labor losses would not only shore up the government's numbers in parliament but put pressure on Bill Shorten's leadership. Leadership rival Anthony Albanese has been maintaining a high profile. * If Malcolm Turnbull's strategists feel the tide is turning towards the Coalition, an early election before Christmas could be on the cards. * Labor wins will reinforce the prime minister's current view that the election should be put off as late as possible (April-May 2019) and more work is needed to build the government's stocks. Follow live coverage of Super Saturday on the SBS News website and the SBS News app on iOS and Android.<doc-sep>Labor has emerged victorious in critical byelection contests in Tasmania and Queensland in a significant fillip for the federal leader, Bill Shorten, boosting its primary vote in Longman and harvesting the lion’s share of preferences in Braddon. After gruelling three-month campaigns triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual-citizenship crisis, Labor held crucial terrain in two key marginal seats and is set to return two MPs to Canberra in the west coast contests – a clean sweep, shoring up its foundations for the next federal election. The Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie also held out a challenge from the Liberal party’s star recruit, Georgina Downer, whose father, former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the South Australian electorate from 1984 to 2008. Sharkie – a popular and hardworking minor party representative – declared her emphatic victory in the seat of Mayo was attributable to “people power”. The Turnbull government had been hopeful of triggering an upset in either Longman or Braddon in the super Saturday contests. No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%. The contest in Braddon was complicated by a strong showing for the high profile local independent Craig Garland, who picked up more than 10% of the vote. The One Nation vote also held up in Longman despite various campaign controversies, with the Queensland electorate centred in Pauline Hanson’s heartland. The Liberal party performed better in Braddon than in Longman, where the LNP suffered a negative swing of 10%, and recorded a primary vote in the mid-20s. While government strategists declared on Saturday night it was the two-party preferred vote that mattered in Australian elections, the LNP’s weak primary vote in Queensland was ominous for the Coalition, given the state always plays a major role in determining the outcome of federal elections because of the large number of marginal seats. Labor ran a substantial ground campaign in Longman, focusing on public services and the government’s support for a company tax cut as a road test for messaging for the federal election, which could be this year or next. Labor also invested in a substantial television and radio advertising blitz in the final week of the campaign, which the LNP lacked the financial resources to match. The weak result in Longman puts neighbouring seats in doubt, including the marginal seat held by one of the Turnbull government’s most influential conservative kingmakers and future leadership aspirant, Peter Dutton – which is an uncomfortable development for Malcolm Turnbull. 01:40 Susan Lamb makes emotional statement about citizenship – video Ahead of the contests on Saturday night, much of the focus had been on Shorten. Prominent frontbencher Anthony Albanese was clearly positioning as an alternative in the event the byelection contests went south. But Labor holding its position, particularly in the crucial electoral battleground of Queensland, will neutralise some of the internal concerns about whether the party’s election strategy is hitting the right note. Labor’s solid result comes despite all the national opinion polls suggesting the major party contest has been tightening over the first six months of this year. It also makes it much more likely that the federal election will be held in 2019, not in the second half of this year. A jubilant Labor leader told supporters in Queensland on Saturday night the result of the byelection contests around the country was “another signpost to the destination that matters for Australians – a Labor government after the next general election”. Shorten acknowledged it had been a tough campaign, and he said Labor had emerged in “pretty good shape”. He said critics of the ALP often underestimated the party as a fighting force. “When our opponents write us down and write the vision for Australia small, you can always count upon the rank and file of the labour movement, trade unionists and ALP members. “You can count on them to put their shoulder to the wheel.” Shorten said the test of a political movement was not when times were benign but when conditions were more testing. “When you’ve got a hard fight ahead of you … you get up and dust yourself off, and you go hard.” The Labor leader said the opposition would now redouble policy efforts between now and the next election. “We will continue the work of putting together a policy agenda for the next national Labor government – a program which will win the confidence and the support of working class and middle-class Australians. “We say this to all Australians, it is about your family, it is about your health. It’s about the ability of getting good, affordable childcare, about the ability to go to well-funded schools, about the ability to get an apprenticeship or go to university. “It’s about ensuring that as you grow older, you can be sure you have decent aged care, it’s about making sure that it is your Medicare card, not your credit card that determines health for you.” Saturday night’s result means all the parliamentarians felled by the dual citizenship fiasco who sought to return to parliament have held their seats.<doc-sep>The Longman and Braddon byelections, two of the five seats to be decided on Saturday, are on a knife-edge, according to new polling. YouGov Galaxy polling published by NewsCorp on Monday showed Labor trailing 49% to 51% in Longman, which was won by Labor’s Susan Lamb at the last election. In Braddon, support was 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis, with the Liberals’ Brett Whiteley hoping to win back the seat he lost to Labor’s Justine Keay in 2016. Should the Coalition snatch either seat, it would be the first time a government has won a seat from the opposition at a byelection in 100 years. The polling also shows the opposition would be in a winning position in both Longman and Braddon if Anthony Albanese were the party’s leader rather than Bill Shorten. Labor appears on track to comfortably hold the seats of Perth and Fremantle in WA – where the Liberals are not standing – while the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is strongly tipped to retain her South Australian seat of Mayo against a challenge by the Liberals’ Georgina Downer. At a press conference in Perth Albanese said that he is “part of Bill Shorten’s team ... and it is the team that counts” when asked about polls indicating Labor would win the byelections if he were leader. He said under Shorten’s leadership Labor would have been elected if an election were held in any of the last 37 fortnights. Officially launching Labor’s Longman campaign on Sunday, the opposition leader said the byelections were “not about Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten” but which party would best for voters’ families and their healthcare. Shorten returns to Braddon on Monday, and Turnbull will wrap up a tour of remote Northern Territory and north-west Queensland. Meanwhile, the One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, has withdrawn from campaigning in Longman. A party spokesman said she is “exhausted and in need of some R&R”. “There is a big year ahead, which will include a general election, and she wants to recharge over the next few weeks and come back bigger and stronger,” he told the Australian. A separate Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the gap between the government and Labor may be narrowing. The opposition now leads by just 51% to 49% on a two-party basis, compared with 53% to 47% a month ago. Turnbull has also increased his popularity over Shorten, with 57% of voters nominating him as preferred prime minister, compared with just 30% for the Labor leader.<doc-sep>
Cast your mind back to this time last year. Greens MP Scott Ludlam shocked the nation when he revealed he had dual citizenship with New Zealand - a situation that meant he was ineligible to sit in Parliament, according to section 44 of the constitution. The revelation sparked a flurry of similar resignations and by-elections, but after a while it all calmed down again. Fast-forward to May this year and four more MPs - all Labor or crossbench MPs - were caught in section 44’s crosshairs. Another Labor MP - Tim Hammond - resigned to spend time with his family, so all up there are five by-elections happening this weekend. The frenzy of polling day activity has been dubbed “Super Saturday”. In case you’re unsure of what that means, a by-election is called when a sitting member of the House of Representatives dies, goes to jail or is ruled ineligible to hold office. It doesn’t mean the whole country gets to vote - only the registered voters in those specific seats. The Senate doesn’t hold by-elections because the parties themselves can choose replacements for any ineligible senators. So if a Nationals senator resigns, the National Party can choose who fills his or her place. Who’s going to the polls? Five electorates in four states will head to the polls this weekend. Skip Twitter Tweet FireFox NVDA users - To access the following content, press 'M' to enter the iFrame. There are two in Western Australia - the electorate of Perth (held until recently by Tim Hammond) and Fremantle, held by dual citizen, Josh Wilson. They’re pretty safe Labor seats, and the Liberal Party has announced it won’t even run candidates there. Then there’s the seat of Mayo in South Australia. Rebekha Sharkie from the Centre Alliance (the new name for Nick Xenophon’s old party) nabbed that from the Liberal Party in the 2016 federal election. She now faces a challenge from Georgina Downer, whose dad - Alexander - held the seat for 24 years. Until Rebekha Sharkie swooped in, the electorate had been a safe Liberal seat, which means the Centre Alliance has a tough fight on its hands to keep it. It’s a similar story for the Queensland seat of Longman. Labor’s Susan Lamb won that seat on a razor-thin majority - just 0.8 per cent - in 2016. It had only fallen to Labor once before in its history, making it an historically LNP-inclined electorate. The last electorate to go to a by-election on Saturday is the Tasmanian seat of Braddon. Labor’s Justine Keay won that with a 2.2 per cent margin in the 2016 election, though the seat itself has swung between Labor and Liberal since its creation. Recent polling has the two parties neck and neck, but the preferences from the Greens candidate and independent Craig Garland may help sway the results in Braddon. What will the results mean for Malcolm Turnbull? Because none of the seats that are being contested belong to the Coalition (that’s the formal agreement between the Liberal Party and the Nationals), there’s no risk of the Government falling if their candidates do badly in the by-elections. In other words, if the Liberal candidates don’t win those seats, the Government will just continue on as normal. The risk here is mainly for Labor. Historically, if there’s a change of hands in a by-election, it usually favours the opposition, as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pointed out. The last time the government won a by-election from the opposition was about 100 years ago. The Coalition is painting the by-elections as a challenge for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. If Labor loses those seats, they’re putting the blame on him. But both seats in danger of falling - Longman and Braddon - are marginal and could have fallen during the next election anyway. And historical analysis can only go so far in determining outcomes this time around. The situation we’re in now, with multiple by-elections called due to the citizenship crisis, is unprecedented. How early could they call the election? What we do know if that a strong showing for the Coalition in the by-elections could result in mounting pressure for an early election. A federal election has to be called next year, but it’s up to Malcolm Turnbull as to when he pulls the trigger.