Aggies vs. Tigers Prediction The first game of the Midwest Region will take place this afternoon as the fifth-seeded Auburn Tigers take on the 12th-seeded New Mexico State Lobos. Will an upset happen or is Auburn bound for the round of 32? Game Snapshot 781 New Mexico State vs. 782 Auburn Tigers Thursday, March 21, 2019 Vivint Smart Home Arena at 1:30PM ET TV: TNT Compare odds from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our College Basketball Odds & Betting Page. Public Betting Information According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, the Tigers are a 5.5-point favorite on the spread line. The over-under is set at 146 points. As of Thursday morning, 52 percent of public bets are siding with New Mexico State. Check out our College Basketball Public Betting Page for up-to-date info. Aggies hammer Antelopes New Mexico State won the Western Athletic Conference Tournament Saturday night with an 89-57 victory to clinch the automatic bid. The Aggies (30-4) led 41-30 at halftime and continued to pull away after the break. New Mexico State shot 33-of-65 from the floor, 17-of-39 from 3-point distance and 6-of-8 from the free throw line. Trevelin Queen paced the Aggies with 27 points off the bench on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor including 6-of-11 from 3-point range plus 3-of-3 at the free throw line. He also notched four rebounds, two assists and two blocked shots. Ivan Aurrecoechea contributed 16 points and seven boards as a reserve. Clayton Henry added 14 points in 14 minutes. Tigers crush Vols in SEC title game Auburn clinched an automatic bid Sunday with an 84-64 win over Tennessee to improve to 26-9 on the season. The Tigers jumped out to a 32-23 halftime advantage and continued to pull away after the break. Bryce Brown led Auburn with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting including 5-of-10 from 3-point distance plus 2-of-2 at the charity stripe. He also accounted for two assists and two steals. Chuma Okeke notched 18 points, 13 caroms and three steals. Danjel Purifoy added 10 points, two rebounds and two steals off the bench. Auburn shot 26-of-64 from the floor, 15-of-40 from 3-point distance plus 17-of-21 from the free throw line. College Basketball Betting Trends New Mexico State The Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. New Mexico State is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games. Auburn The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games. Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Prediction: Auburn has been rolling with eight straight up wins in a row including two over Tennessee, propelling it to a five seed. While the Aggies have had an outstanding season, I think their run ends here at the hands of Auburn. New Mexico State has struggled in recent NCAA Tournament appearances and it seems the step up in competition is often too much for it to handle. The Tigers are particularly good offensively as they are eighth nationally in adjusted efficiency, which should lead to easy baskets against an occasionally leaky NMSU defense. NCAA DAILY PREDICTION: AUBURN TIGERS -5.5<doc-sep>The first slate of Thursday’s NCAA tournament games looked to be a trio of duds. Minnesota controlled its game against Louisville. LSU held off a late charge from Yale, but never really had a reason to worry. And Auburn looked to be cruising to a win against WAC champion and No. 12 seed New Mexico State. Then, the game went completely off the rails. Auburn held a nine-point lead with just over four minutes to go, and protected the ball well for much of the game. The Tigers had no turnovers for the first 14 minutes of the second half. Then, suddenly, they couldn’t protect the ball at all. Auburn turned the ball over six times in the final 6.5 minutes of the game as the Aggies took advantage to come within a point. It was a blistering comeback, and Auburn was on its heels (and forgetting basic basketball strategy). The collapse bordered on comedic levels. Plenty of coaches prefer to foul up three points in late-game situations, forcing the opponent to hit a clutch free throw and then try to miss and rebound the second rather than just giving them an attempt from 3-point range. But you don’t want to foul with 15 seconds to go. That’s way too much time. And you certainly don’t want to foul if you’re Auburn’s most important player, Jared Harper, and playing with four fouls. Harper, uh, did that with the Tigers up three and 15 seconds to go. And fouled out … intentionally. . @FAMOUS_AMOS12 on the fast break and draws the 5th foul on Auburn's #1 Jared Harper. Harris shooting 2 with 14.5 seconds left.#MarchMadness | #AggieUp — NM State MBB (@NMStateMBB) March 21, 2019 The Aggies would split the pair, foul and this time find themselves down four points. Auburn gave JoJo Zamora an excellent look from 3, and he drained the shot to bring NMSU within one. We could feel something brewing. At this point, the meltdown appeared imminent. It was going to happen. Charles Barkley was melting down and looking for things to throw in the studio. It was a glorious collapse. This was everything great about March. Put this Charles Barkley GIF in the Hall of Fame 😂pic.twitter.com/CchDeFepIH — Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 21, 2019 And amazingly, there was still more craziness to unfold. The Aggies had the ball with six seconds remaining and down two points. They could tie or go for the win, and it was clear that the win was the only thing on A.J. Harris’ mind because he turned down a WIDE OPEN layup to kick out for 3. And guess what: Auburn fouled the shooter! Have to think underdog & coach told him to look for 3, since that is exactly why he just whipped this pass. pic.twitter.com/ZjuEWvLEFg — Half Court Hoops (@HalfCourtHoops) March 21, 2019 Ahhhh! I can’t anymore. This game. The out-of-this-world-inexcusable foul by Bryce Brown put Terrell Brown at the line for what had to be the most nerve-wracking experience imaginable. The 78 percent foul shooter had a chance to make three free throws and win. He ended up going 1 of 3 with the final miss going out of play with a second remaining. The Aggies retained possession and would have a baseline out-of-bounds look for the win. And they got a great look. The kind of look you dream about in March. Trevelin Queen was ready for his One Shining Moment. The problem was that he was a bit too juiced up for his open look from 3 and sent the shot sailing long by five feet. New Mexico State | EOG Fake Lob Pop GREAT counter to get a WIDE open 3. pic.twitter.com/56c2xa1du9 — Half Court Hoops (@HalfCourtHoops) March 21, 2019 After ALL OF THAT, Auburn survived. The Tigers won, 78-77. And Bruce Pearl probably needs his blood pressure checked. I know I do.<doc-sep>The AU bench is excited as Bryce Brown hits a three in the SEC Tournament. SALT LAKE CITY--For the 10th time in program history the Auburn Tigers are a part of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament as they take on the New Mexico State Aggies. Tipoff time is set for 12:30 p.m. CDT time (11:30 a.m. local time) from Vivint Home Arena in downtown Salt Lake City. The game will be televised on TNT. Andrew Catalon will have the play-by-play coverage for TV viewers with Steve Lappas as the analyst. Rod Bramblett will have the play-by-play for the Auburn radio network with Coach Sonny Smith the analyst and Brad Law helping with the coverage. The Tigers, who are 26-9 and champions of the Southeastern Conference, are the No. 5 seed in the regional and are on an eight-game winning streak. New Mexico State, the champion of the Western Athletic Conference for the regular season and league tournament, is 30-4 overall and is on a 19-game winning streak, the second longest of any of the teams that made the NCAA Tournament field. New Mexico State is a 12 seed. Thursday’s game will be the first meeting in basketball between the Tigers and Aggies. Last year they were both played in the NCAA Regional at San Diego and both lost to Clemson. The Aggies fell in round one to the ACC team while Clemson eliminated the Tigers in the second round last year. The winners of the Auburn-New Mexico State game will advance to the round of 32 for a Saturday contest vs. the winner of No. 4 seed Kansas and No. 13 seed Northeastern. The time for that game has not been set. New Mexico State hasn’t lost a game since January 3rd. Auburn’s last lost was on Feb. 23rd at Kentucky. “We went into the Kentucky game feeling pretty good about our team--we had won some games,” said Coach Bruce Pearl, whose team fell 82-80 to the Wildcats on January19th at Auburn Arena. “We felt like we may have been one of the few teams that could go there and compete with them. That is how we felt going in.” *** Try us for $1 and get the latest Auburn recruiting and team scoops *** *** Get FREE Auburn breaking news in your inbox *** The Wildcats handed Auburn, by far, its biggest loss as the Tigers fell 80-53. “Kentucky played great and you could see a difference lining up against them,” Pearl said. “Our guys saw a difference, and, so what do you do about it?...“I think a couple of things--one, we had to make some offense out of our defense. If you sat there and let Kentucky do what they wanted to do, not very good. “Second thing--the guys understood that at this point with four games to go we have to win or we won’t be in this tournament,” Pearl added. “We have to win or this season will be a disappointment. Everybody got locked in, everybody got bought in, they started trusting each other, relying on each other more and then as a result we pulled off eight straight.” Auburn’s starting lineup: 6-3 Sr. guard Bryce Brown (15.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists) 5-11 Jr. guard Jared Harper (15.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists) 6-8 So. forward Chuma Okeke (11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists) 6-6 Sr. guard/forward Malik Dunbar (6.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists) 6-7 Jr. forward Anfernee McLemore (6.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks) New Mexico State’s starting lineup: 6-1, 165 Jr. guard Terrell Brown (11.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists) 5-9, 170 RJr. guard A.J. Harris (9.6 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists) 6-4, 195 Jr. guard Clayton Henry (5.6 points, 3.3 rebounds) 6-7, 230 RSr. forward Eli Chuha (9.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists) 6-7, 225 RJr. forward C.J. Bobbitt (4.7 points, 2.6 rebounds) Subscribe to Inside the Auburn Tigers Magazine and Football Newsletter<doc-sep>#5 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State NCAA Tournament Betting Odds Spread: Auburn -5.5 Over/Under: 146 Time: Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET TV: TNT Location: Salt Lake City, Utah >> All odds as of Wednesday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets. A tremendous run through the SEC Tournament saw Auburn (18-15-1 against the spread) defeat several NCAA Tournament teams. Both No. 10 Florida and No. 2 Tennessee had to deal with Auburn’s suffocating pressure and no fear in jacking three pointers. The Tigers have now won eight consecutive games, including 10 of their past 11. Auburn has been nothing but impressive since a 2-4 start to their SEC conference campaign. Speaking of streaks, New Mexico State (17-15-1 ATS) has won 19 straight of its own. The Aggies have not lost a game since a trip to California Baptist on Jan. 3 and two of New Mexico State’s victories in the WAC Tournament were by 30-plus points. With the top ranking in Bench Minutes in the nation, this is a team with depth and athleticism. Perimeter Defense a Must vs. Auburn Auburn made 396 3-pointers this season, which led the NCAA. For any team to have a shot at beating the Tigers, perimeter defensive is imperative. Auburn is 27th in the nation in 3-point percentage and ranks seventh in depending on the deep ball for point distribution. Against a strength of schedule of 239th, New Mexico State is just 104th in 3-point defense. New Mexico State ranks 332nd in average height, which should mean the Tigers will have open looks all afternoon. Auburn also ranks first in the country in defensive turnovers. New Mexico State is middle of the pack at turning the ball over, but its safe to say a slate full of WAC opponents did not prepare the Aggies for Auburn’s pressure. Auburn ranks 54th in average offensive possession length, meaning there is haste in every Tigers possession. The Aggies might feel they are playing at warp speed with a season-long rank of 278th in adjusted tempo. How New Mexico State Pulls Off the Upset The Aggies have become a public darling in this game against the SEC Tournament champs. New Mexico State does have impressive metrics, ranking top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage, opponents offensive boards, and 2-point field goal percentage. This is an excellent rebounding team. A 3-point loss to Kansas on Dec. 8 will be firmly on the minds of bettors looking to back the underdog in this game, either ATS or on the moneyline. A rebounding advantage should be key against Auburn, but with the number of 3-pointers attempted, it will be more about the effort in chasing down lose balls as opposed to traditional boxing out. While the Aggies are not great at shooting the 3, they rank ninth in 2-point field goal percentage. The key to this game is slowing Auburn down, pounding the blocks for high percentage shots, and fetching every single rebound from a missed 3-point attempt. The Pick This is a spot where a letdown could happen after an impressive four-day run in the SEC Tournament. It’s safe to say that no team New Mexico State has played in the past three months can simulate what it will see with a hyperactive Auburn team. There are plenty of advanced metrics supporting the love for New Mexico State, but these numbers were built through one of the easiest conferences in the nation. One statistic that may come into play is free throw percentage. New Mexico State is 293rd in the country in free throws. In a game where New Mexico State needs Auburn to lack effort and miss 3-pointers, the Aggies must also make their free throws. The advanced stats say they will not be successful in these aspects. Collin’s Pick: Auburn -5.5 up to -7 Our Projected Odds for Auburn vs. New Mexico State Get point spreads for this game and every possible tournament matchup with our bracket simulator built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017. Spread: Auburn -8.5 Auburn -8.5 Total: 142 142 Proj Score: Auburn 75.5 | New Mexico State 67 Auburn 75.5 | New Mexico State 67 Win Probability: Auburn 81.7% | New Mexico State 18.3% Editor’s note: The opinions on this game is from the individual writer and are based on his research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.<doc-sep>
Fifth-seeded Auburn tried its best to let 12-seed New Mexico State pull off the first big upset of this year’s NCAA tournament by consistently bungling things at the precise moment when they could’ve put the game to bed. Unfortunately, New Mexico State was even more inept when it mattered most, and failed to finish the job. Auburn thoroughly dominated New Mexico State for most of the second half, eventually leading by as much as 13 points. But after going 17 minutes straight without a turnover, the Tigers decided to give the Aggies a shot at orchestrating the comeback by turning the ball over six times in six minutes. The game eventually devolved into a foul-for-three trade-off fest. With eight seconds left in the game, JoJo Zamora hit a late three to cut the Tigers’ lead down to just one point. The Aggies called timeout so that coach Chris Jans could draw up the “foul the guy with the ball” play. It ended up working to perfection. Auburn’s Samir Doughty, an 84.6 percent free throw shooter, missed the first of his two free throws which pushed his team’s lead to just two. This is where things just started to unravel. New Mexico State guard A.J. Harris then took the ball down the floor and found himself an open lane to the basket. In literally any other competitive scenario, Harris would have taken the lay-up and tied things up. Instead, he played the numbers game, decided two was less than three, and ignored the easy opportunity to tie the game so that he could kick the ball out for a potential game-winning three. Thankfully for the Aggies, Auburn tried to one-up Harris’s boneheadedness and fouled forward Terrell Brown during the resulting three-point attempt. With under two seconds to go, only three free throws stood between New Mexico State and almost certain victory. With an unimaginable weight of pressure on his shoulders, Brown stepped up to the line. He missed his first shot. No matter, right? He only had to nail his next two attempts to force overtime, and he was halfway there after he sank his second shot. Only his third attempt rimmed out, which probably should’ve killed the Aggies’ chances. But wait! The fat lady had not sung just yet. When trying to corral the rebound from Brown’s missed attempt, a Tigers player knocked the ball out of bounds. This gave New Mexico State possession of the ball yet again from underneath the hoop with 1.1 seconds remaining. Get the ball in and hit one bucket—any bucket—and New Mexico State would live to play another day. But it was at that point that whichever vengeful god was watching over this matchup decided that this is where New Mexico State’s luck would stop. The Aggies drew up a creative inbounds play that gave Trevelin Queen a wide-open look from three, but the guard blew it by missing the game-winner by about four feet. This game just came down to Auburn not being able to keep up with New Mexico State’s incompetence when it mattered most. Hopefully for the Tigers, that’s the only clutch gene they’re truly missing.