West Virginia-Iowa State Betting Pick, Odds Odds: West Virginia -6.5 Over/Under: 57 Time: 7 p.m. ET TV Channel: Fox Sports 1 >> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets. For all the love Texas coach Tom Herman gets for his against-the-spread prowess when getting points, there’s another coach in his conference who’s been extremely profitable in that spot. Matt Campbell is 15-6 against the spread as an underdog at Iowa State, and 25-12 overall. He’s also 11-26 straight up as a dog, earning $100 bettors $4,684 and a 126.6% ROI in those games. The Cyclones pulled off a big upset last week at Oklahoma State. Can Campbell run it back against quarterback Will Grier and West Virginia? Market Moves for West Virginia-Iowa State Fifty-two percent of bettors are counting on West Virginia to stay undefeated, but they’re making up only 36% of the dollars wagered on this game. Still, the Mountaineers have gone from -4.5 to -6.5 since opening. As for the total, the number has bounced around a bit, but settled at 57.5 after opening at 57. More than 90% of bettors are taking the over. Trends to Know By John Ewing Since becoming a head coach in 2012, Campbell is the most profitable one in the Bet Labs database with a 46-28-2 ATS record (+15.39 units). Since coming to Ames from Toledo, Campbell has led Iowa State to a 20-9 ATS record, including 15-6 ATS as an underdog, covering on average by 6.9 points per game. By Evan Abrams Dana Holgorsen has been the head coach at West Virginia since 2011. There is only one team he is 3-0 ATS on the road against — Iowa State. West Virginia is covering the spread by 10.2 points per game with none of the spreads being above 10 points for any of the three games. If you are thinking of backing the Mountaineers on the road, consider this: Since 2005, Power 5 top-10 teams in conference road games are covering the spread 48% of the time. If you look closely, the Big Ten is 56-35-1 ATS (61.5%) in that spot, the ACC is an even 30-30 ATS, while the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 are 148-188-6 ATS (44%), losing bettors 46 units. Airing it Out By Steve Petrella You probably know that West Virginia likes to throw, since it has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Grier. And the metrics back it up. WVU ranks bottom 20 in Standard Down and Passing Down Run Rate, according to Football Study Hall. It calls passing plays on more than 56% of snaps, seventh in the nation. Interestingly enough, teams have attacked Iowa State’s defense with a similar philosophy. Teams run 49.5% of the time on Standard Downs against the Cyclones, the fourth-lowest rate in the country. The opposition likes to air it out early on a set of downs. That should help extend the clock and lead to more possessions and therefore, more points. Third Downs Will Be Key By Stuckey West Virginia converts third downs at 56.9% (No. 4 nationally) and should keep the sticks moving against a Cyclones defense that allows opponents to convert 45.5% of third downs (118th). Per S&P+, the Mountaineers offense ranks ninth in Third Down Success Rate, including third overall on third and long. That could pose major problems for an Iowa State defense that ranks 123rd and 116th in those two categories, respectively. Bet to Watch for WVU-Iowa State By Stuckey Brock Purdy, the National Freshman of the Week, has woken up a sleeping Cyclones offense. Purdy went 18 of 23 for 318 yards four touchdowns against Oklahoma State, and led Iowa State in rushing with 84 yards. I’d say that’s quite a debut, especially considering his team pulled off a road upset in Stillwater as a 10-point underdog. Purdy brings life to the Cyclone offense, and can potentially exploit West Virginia’s smaller corners with 6-foot-6 Hakeem Butler out wide. I actually think there is value in the over here, especially if Iowa State running back David Montgomery doesn’t play. I think we are in for a shootout between Grier and Purdy. If this line gets to WVU -7, I think you have to also take the home dog, which might still be worth a look at 6.5. Iowa State simply doesn’t get blown out. The Cyclones have lost eight games over the past two years, all by 10 points or fewer.<doc-sep>West Virginia will have their work cut out for them this week as they travel to Ames, Iowa, fighting to remain undefeated. Awaiting them there will be Iowa State, fresh off a victory over then-No. 25 Oklahoma State. Could the Cyclones be up for another upset? Here's what experts from around the industry think. Of the seven experts at CBSSports, only four of the seven chose West Virginia to handle their business against Iowa State. Chip Patterson, Barton Simmons, and Ben Kercheval were the three panelists who chose the Cyclones. Dennis Dodd picked WVU to win, but that Iowa State would keep it within the 6.5-point spread. The experts at ESPN were not so split. Sixteen of the seven pickers - all but Joel Anderson - chose the Mountaineers to win the game. All saw a fairly close game (three to ten points), with only Chris Low and Ryan McGee seeing a blowout (both with 17 point wins for WVU). Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections for the game have West Virginia winning, 35-26. All three experts at Athlon Sports - Steven Lassan, Mitch Light, and Braden Gall - have West Virginia winning the game. Five of the six experts at USAToday chose the Mountaineers to win, with only Paul Myerberg choosing the Cyclones. Ralph D. Russo of The Associated Press has WVU winning by eight, 31-23. David Kenyon of Bleacher Report sees a close one between the two teams, but he expects the Mountaineers to just barely eke out a win (and a cover, for those scoring at home). This is a dicey matchup for Will Grier and Co., especially since it's on the road. West Virginia probably won't have much success running on Iowa State, which is 19th nationally in yards allowed per carry. But if Grier rebounds from a four-turnover day and succeeds in the red zone, the Mountaineers will earn a tight win. Prediction: West Virginia 31, Iowa State 24 Zac Al-Khateeb of The Sporting News feels similarly. He also has the Mountaineers working hard for a seven-point win over the Cyclones. The game in Ames looks a lot more dangerous for the Mountaineers than this time last week. Iowa State upset Oklahoma State 48-42 that shows Matt Campbell’s squad is as dangerous as ever. Will Grier, meanwhile, had his worst outing of the season last week, tossing four touchdowns and three interceptions in a 38-22 win over Kansas. That could end up working out for the Mountaineers, though — Dana Holgorsen will make sure his team stays on its toes. West Virginia 35, Iowa State 28 This piece started out a little dicey - with that 4-3 split from the mothership at CBSSports - but the final tally among all experts was 32-4 in favor of the Mountaineers to win the game. Of those that gave a score, though, the average margin of victory was roughly seven points a game, indicating a close contest is expected by all.<doc-sep>
Joe Robbins/Getty Images Since becoming Big 12 rivals, West Virginia is 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread in the series with Iowa State, with three wins in Ames, Iowa. The Mountaineers are favored to make it four in a row at Jack Trice Stadium when they battle the Cyclones on Saturday evening. College football point spread: The Mountaineers opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.9-25.2 Mountaineers (College football picks on every game) Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news. Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread WVU is one of the last eight undefeated Power 5 programs this season, following its 38-22 victory over Kansas last week. Video Play Button Videos you might like The Mountaineers jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Jayhawks 10 minutes into the game, led 21-7 at the half, let Kansas get within 21-14 but scored the next 17 points to pull away. West Virginia gave up a Jayhawks touchdown on the final play of the game to create a slightly misleading final score. The Mountaineers outgained Kansas 509-286, held a 29-16 edge in first downs and won time of possession by a 34/26 split. West Virginia would have come closer to covering the 27-point spread, but four turnovers inside Kansas territory, including three deep in the red zone, cost the Mountaineers at least 16 points and probably more. Up until last week, West Virginia was perfect against the spread this season, covering as favorites of 10 points against Tennessee, 33 against Youngstown State, 15 against Kansas State and four against Texas Tech. Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread Iowa State bounced back from a tough loss at TCU two weeks ago to upset Oklahoma State on the road in Stillwater last week 48-42. The Cyclones spotted the Cowboys the first seven points of the game, then scored the next 16 and led 30-21 at the half. ISU then twice allowed OSU to pull within one score in the second half but answered back both times and hung on for the outright victory as a 10-point dog. Iowa State posted 465 yards of total offense, led by third-string quarterback Brock Purdy, who threw for 318 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 84 and another score. Meanwhile, the Cyclones defense held the Big 12's leading rusher, Justice Hill, to just 66 yards on 24 carries, and the special teams blocked an Oklahoma State punt for a safety. Iowa State is now 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS its last nine games against ranked opponents. Smart betting pick West Virginia is coming off a sub-par performance against an inferior foe last week, while Iowa State is coming off a big effort in a conference road victory. But the Mountaineers should be sharper this week, while the Cyclones might be ripe for a letdown. The smart money here gives the points with West Virginia. College football betting trends The total has gone under in three of West Virginia's last four games versus Iowa State. The total has gone under in 10 of Iowa State's last 13 games. Iowa State is 12-37 SU in its last 49 games versus its conference. All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.