The Twin Cities picked up only half the amount that was forecast. The snowstorm wasn't a total bust, but it was definitely underwhelming considering the forecast at 3:30 p.m. Sunday called for 8-12 inches of snow in the Twin Cities with isolated locations expected to pick up more than a foot. The end result was 3-6 inches in the metro while the heavier amounts still didn't get close to a foot. In fact, the high-end amounts appear to be in southeast Minnesota, with the town of Mabel leading the way with a report of 9.5 inches. A line from Mankato to Owatonna, Rochester and Winona picked up 6-8 inches. You can check snowfall reports right here, and below is a list of some leaders. Mabel - 9.5 Brownsville - 9 La Crosse - 8 Owatonna - 7.2 Stewartville - 7.1 Eau Claire - 7 Alexandria - 7 Winona - 7 Mankato - 7 Osseo - 6.5 Faribault - 6.5 Waterville - 6 Rochester - 6 Woodbury - 5.4 Lakeville - 5.3 Robbinsdale - 5 Chanhassen - 5 Prior Lake - 5 Rosemount - 5 Burnsville - 5 Stillwater - 4.5 Bloomington - 4.3 Minneapolis - 4 Blaine - 3.7 Why was the forecast so far off? The computer models were flat out wrong. According to Jim Orlando, an Iowa State meteorology graduate, the computer models are to blame for suggesting a lot more moisture than there actually was. Snow is frozen liquid, and Orlando says the computer models were indicating up to a half-inch of liquid with this storm. A half-inch of liquid would normally equal about five inches of snow under the general understanding that an inch of liquid is equal to 10 inches of snow (10:1 ratio). As Orlando says, the computer models were thinking this storm was capable of 20:1 ratios, which with a half-inch of liquid would equate to 10+ inches of snow. Another possible explanation is that the snowflakes were very light and fluffy and "the strong winds aloft fragmented the snowflakes and not many were allowed to stack up," according to Orlando. Here's an example of the HRRR model that plays a role in forecasting. At 1 p.m. Sunday the model was indicating upwards of a foot of snow for the metro, and just four hours later that same model was leaning towards 6-8 inches, and much lower numbers west of the Twin Cities (although some of that snow had already fallen and these models predict how much is yet to come). The 1 p.m. model (left) and the 5 p.m. model (right). Pivotal Weather Overall, the storm was a big enough threat to cancel classes at many schools around the state Monday, which even with the lower snow totals was partially justified by the dangerous travel conditions the blowing snow and cold temps created.<doc-sep>article A winter storm dumped up to 6 inches of snow on the Twin Cities metro Sunday night into Monday morning, closing schools and daycares and prompting cities to declare snow emergencies. SNOW TOTALS MSP Airport: 4.9 inches Lakeville: 5.3 inches Chanhassen NWS: 5.3 inches Maple Plain: 4.5 inches Robbinsdale: 5 inches Roseville: 2.2 inches Bloomington: 4.3 inches Lino Lakes: 3 inches St. Cloud: 3.7 inches Sartell: 4.5 inches Cambridge: 3.5 inches Bemidji: 4 inches As the snow wraps up across the area Monday morning, the focus is now turning to a quick cleaup before the cold air hits Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Wind Chill Warning is in effect for the Twin Cities from 3 p.m. Tuesday through 9 a.m. Thursday. The metro should expect wind chills in the 35-55 below zero range during that time, with 35-60 below possible in greater Minnesota. Stay up to date during this week's winter weather by downloading the FOX 9 Weather App. It has the latest temperatures, snow totals, forecasts and school closings 24/7. Advertisement Download it for Android or Apple.<doc-sep>MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) – Commuters in the Twin Cities metro should expect a slower commute Monday morning as a snowstorm continues to swirl over southern and central Minnesota, blowing light, crystalline flakes on top of the snow that already accumulated (up to 6 inches in some areas) overnight. A winter storm warning remains in effect until noon for much of southern and central Minnesota, the National Weather Service says. While the snow is expected to taper off in the later morning hours, another inch of light snow is expected to accumulate in some areas. Highs Monday are expected to climb near 10 degrees in the Twin Cities, but overnight temperatures will crash, as a front of arctic air moves over Minnesota, setting up a week of dangerous cold, with wind chills as frigid as 60 below in parts of northern Minnesota. The overnight snowstorm has prompted hundreds of schools in southern and central Minnesota to cancel or delay classes Monday. A list of school closings can be found here. Additionally, several cities in the metro area have declared snow emergencies, including St. Paul. However, Minneapolis has not done so. Looks like 4-6″ so far in the metro. Steady snow still coming down now and will for another few hours. #mnwx #wiwx pic.twitter.com/HkOT6gD15X — Matt Brickman (@Matt_Brickman) January 28, 2019 Meteorologist Matt Brickman says the biggest snow totals were recorded Monday in southern Minnesota. One reading, from a WCCO Weather Watcher, showed 9 inches in Warsaw, 7.8 inches in Springfield. Another, in Waseca, showed 7 inches. In Minneapolis, about 4 inches of snow fell, with higher totals recorded in the south metro. Meanwhile, WCCO Weather Watchers in central Minnesota, in Becker and Nevis, also reported getting about 6 inches of fresh snow. As the snow fell overnight, crews were out clearing and treating the roads. They only have until the end of the day before the arctic cold descends on the state, rendering salt and chemical treatments basically useless. Potentially historic cold will arrive Tuesday through Thursday with highs 10 to 20 below and lows ranging from 25 to 30 below. Check out these dangerous wind chills Wednesday morning… pic.twitter.com/AXjfcx7OhW — NWS Twin Cities (@NWSTwinCities) January 27, 2019 The extreme cold is expected to fall on Minnesota overnight, with wind chill factors as frigid as 30 below in the Twin Cities on Tuesday morning. Temperatures won’t climb above zero for days, and Wednesday looks to bring historic cold, with lows around 27 below, which haven’t been recorded in the metro in about 20 years. The wind chills Wednesday morning will be around 50 below to the metro, and parts of greater Minnesota could see wind chill factors as cold as 60 below. In such cold, frostbite can set in on exposed skin in less than 5 minutes. Expect some schools to close this week due to the dangerous cold. The extreme cold is expected to last until Thursday. However, the weekend looks to bring a shot of warmth, with temperatures climbing well above freezing on Saturday. The near 60-degree shift in temperatures will bring a chance to clear roads and sidewalks of ice that accumulates during this week of arctic cold.<doc-sep>TWIN CITIES, MN — A winter storm will drop 6 to 8 inches, if not more, of snow in the area from Sunday night into Monday. Winds gusts up to 35 mph will cause blowing snow and extremely low wind chills. "Dangerous wind chills of below -35 degrees are expected Tuesday through Thursday morning. Please cover exposed skin and limit time outdoors," says the National Weather Service. Both a winter storm warning and a wind chill watch have been issued for the Twin Cities metro area and much of central Minnesota. A winter storm warning means the snow and wind will make travel either extremely hazardous or impossible. Put a flashlight, food and water in your car before driving. Plan on slippery road conditions and poor visibility. Frostbite can happen in just 5 minutes. Snowfall is pushing into the area Sunday night. Find the timing for major cities below: Sunday: Snow, mainly after 4 p.m. High near 7. Wind chill values as low as -12. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Here's the NWS forecast for the Twin Cities: Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 8pm. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -14. Blustery, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Patchy blowing snow before 8 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 10. Wind chill values as low as -16. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -12. Wind chill values as low as -24. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -8. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -26. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -13. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -25. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -2. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -9. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 11. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. South southeast wind around 10 mph. William Bornhoft is Patch's Minnesota editor. Reach him at William.Bornhoft@Patch.com Editor's note: this article has been updated to reflect that a winter storm warning — not a watch — is now in effect Image via National Weather Service<doc-sep>
The heaviest snow is expected to fall Sunday evening through Monday morning. UPDATE 3:30 P.M. The National Weather Service has upped the snowfall potential for the Twin Cities as a snowstorm move through Minnesota this evening through Monday morning. "Snowfall amounts in the warning area can be expected to range from 6 to 12 inches," the winter storm warning update says. For the Twin Cities metro area, 8-12 inches is forecast, which is up from the earlier Sunday forecast that called for 6-8 inches. NWS Twin Cities "The greatest snow accumulations will stretch from west central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro to around the Eau Claire area, with lesser amounts towards northern Minnesota, southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin," the updated forecast says. "This system is expected to cause significant travel impacts, especially Sunday night through the Monday morning commute." Here's a look at the simulated future radar, which shows snow impacting the metro between 5-6 p.m. and exiting early Monday morning. Sunday 8 a.m. A winter storm will move through Minnesota today and exit Monday morning with snow totals ranging from 6-12 inches all the way from Fargo through St. Cloud, the Twin Cities and points southeast. NWS Twin Cities The highest totals are currently projected to pile up just to the southeast of the metro where locations like Red Wing, Rochester and Winona could see 8-12 inches. The majority of the Twin Cities is in line for 6-8 inches, although cities in the far southern metro east of 35W fall into the 8- to- 12-inch zone. NWS Twin Cities Northwest winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph will cause significant blowing and drifting in western and southern Minnesota. The morning commute on Monday will likely be difficult, especially so if the snow continues through the early morning hours as the current computer models are suggesting. Here's the official forecast language for the winter storm and the extreme cold set to follow the snow. "Accumulating snow will occur across all of central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The greatest snow accumulations will stretch from west central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro to around the Eau Claire area, with lesser amounts towards northern Minnesota, southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This system is expected to cause significant travel impacts, especially Sunday night through the Monday morning commute. Snowfall amounts in the warning area can be expected to range from 6 to 8 inches. Snowfall amounts in the advisory area can be expected to range from 3 to 6 inches. Dangerous wind chills of 60 below zero to 35 below zero are expected Tuesday morning through Thursday morning in western and central Minnesota. Wind chills of 35 below zero and lower are expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning in east central MN and west central Minnesota."