Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3) Thu. 10/11, 8:20 p.m. ET Three things you need to know before betting on Eagles-Giants: 1. A pair of NFC East rivals with sub-.500 records meet when the defending Super Bowl champions travel to East Rutherford, N.J., on Thursday night. Both teams are coming off two-point losses in Week 5, with the Eagles falling at home to the Vikings, and the Giants losing on the road on a 63-yard field goal by Carolina’s Graham Gano on the game’s final play. While Philadelphia has gone 18-6 straight up since the start of last season, including the postseason, New York is 4-17 with nine double-digit losses. In 10 games in which the point spread has been less than four points during this timeframe, the Giants have only one ATS win, which was a two-point loss as a 2.5-point underdog at Tampa Bay last October. SI Backdoor Cover Jinx: The Five Most Excruciating Betting Losses From CFB Week 6/NFL Week 5 2. The Eagles have dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, beating the Giants outright in seven of eight meetings while going 5-3 against the spread since the start of the 2014 season. Philadelphia has won six of these games by five or more points, including all three of the games it has won in MetLife Stadium. That improved the Eagles’ record to 9-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread over their last 11 road games versus the Giants. Philadelphia isn’t the only team that’s enjoyed success at MetLife. The Giants come into this game having gone just 2-8 straight up and 3-7 against the spread over their past 10 home games. That includes an 0-2 mark at home this season (both straight up and against the spread), as New York has been outscored by a combined 53 to 33 while allowing an average of 153 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry in losses to Jacksonville and New Orleans. 3. The disparity in these teams' proficiency in both rushing the football and stopping the run has been significant. Philadelphia has rushed for an average of 111 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry this season, compared to New York's meager 76 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. The statistical gap is even wider on the other side of the ball, as the Eagles have limited opponents to 66 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry while the Giants have allowed an average of 124 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. If you’re looking for a betting system that applies to this one, consider that home teams coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed more than 24 points are 18-43-2 when facing an opponent coming off a loss by fewer than seven points. Pick: Philadelphia -3 Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)<doc-sep>There was more chaos last week, as some low-scoring games went out of our favor in terms of our picks against the spread. It’s been a challenging NFL season for game predictions, but that only makes us more motivated to do a little better each week. Here is your fearless forecast for Week 6 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.) SIGN UP to watch every NFL game LIVE and ON DEMAND in Canada with DAZN Week 6 NFL picks against the spread (All times ET) Game of Midweek: Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox The Eagles' cornerbacks are no match for Giants wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard outside. But Philadelphia's front will perform better than it did against Minnesota to pressure Eli Manning, and Carson Wentz will be the next mobile passer to have the number of New York’s defense. PICK: Eagles win 24-20 and cover the spread. AFC Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3) Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC The Patriots will flip the script on the Chiefs, as they'll be the ones operating a methodical, ball-control approach with strong running from Sony Michel and Tom Brady picking apart a bad secondary with short-to-intermediate throw under little duress. Their goal will be finishing long drives with touchdowns and limiting the chances for Patrick Mahomes to answer. New England will avenge their loss in Week 1 of 2017 and get closer to being the team to beat in the AFC again. PICK: Patriots win 31-27 and cover the spread. Rivalry of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) Sunday 1 p.m., CBS This is a direct path for Pittsburgh to get back to the status of favorite in the AFC North, but a Steelers loss would put the Bengals in position to run away with the division. Both teams have given up chunk pass plays in the middle of the field this season, and this game will go back and forth until Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown finish the coup of Who Dey Nation. PICK: Steelers win 27-24. Upset of the Week: Tennessee Titans over Baltimore Ravens (-3) Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS There’s a lot to like and dislike about both teams. Once “retired” former Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees works for the Titans now, and he’ll take advantage of Baltimore being pass-happy with a good cadre of edge-rushers. Marcus Mariota is a better grinder than Joe Flacco is, and that will make the slightest difference late in the game. PICK: Titans win 20-17. Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Rams (-7) over Denver Broncos Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox The Rams might not be at full strength at wide receiver; Robert Woods is the only starter who is not dealing with a concussion. Denver struggles with power rushing attacks, and LA should come out pounding with Todd Gurley. Jared Goff will not to be intimidated by Von Miller and an overrated pass defense, and former Ram Case Keenum will build his case to be benched for Chad Kelly against former Denver defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. PICK: Rams win 34-14 and cover the spread. Rest of the Week: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Sunday 1 p.m., Fox After the Bills debacle, the Vikings probably will not take lightly another double-digit underdog quarterbacked by a rookie named Josh. Minnesota's defense got its groove back in Philadelphia, and offensively, Kirk Cousins will stay hot with a little more help from the running game. PICK: Vikings win 27-13 and cover the spread. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (TBD) Sunday 1 p.m., CBS Josh Allen will do his best to run away from J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, and Tre’Davious White will contain DeAndre Hopkins as long as he possibly can. But, eventually, the Bills’ rookie QB will succumb in a one-dimensional offense without any legitimate wideouts. Deshaun Watson will make it four consecutive 300-yard passing games and also run Houston to a third consecutive victory, this time in regulation. PICK: Texans win 24-10 and cover the spread. Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (TBD) Sunday 1 p.m., Fox The Panthers are finding different ways to win; between the offense, defense and special teams, one unit is always providing the critical pick-up. Josh Norman and the Redskins are picking up the pieces from the Monday night loss in New Orleans against Drew Brees ... just in time to have Cam Newton give them another wrinkle. Alex Smith is struggling, and he won't be able to keep up at home. PICK: Panthers win 20-17. Chicago Bears (-3) at Miami Dolphins Sunday 1 p.m., Fox This feels like a trap game for the Bears, coming off a bye against the unpredictable Dolphins, who are led by Chicago's former offensive coordinator, Adam Gase. But Matt Nagy will have figured out a few more things to help move forward Mitchell Trubisky and the offense. Ryan Tannehill is going downhill again, and Khalil Mack isn’t about to let the QB out of the slump. Chicago also will be backed by good fan support on the road. PICK: Bears win 23-10 and cover the spread. Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5) Sunday 1 p.m., CBS The Colts are not as bad as their record indicates, and the Jets are a mixed bag from week to week. Andrew Luck should have a healthier team to support him coming off a mini-bye, including a defense that has a lot of underrated playmakers to throw at Luck’s rookie counterpart, Sam Darnold. Frank Reich will get a second road win on the East Coast. The Jets have defensive holes in the wrong spots against Luck. PICK: Colts win 24-20. Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Cleveland Browns Sunday 1 p.m., CBS The Chargers are getting back on track defensively, and there has been nothing wrong with the offense all season. This is a tricky, long road trip against a suddenly confident Browns team. Baker Mayfield will bring the energy to match Rivers’ intensity, but he does not have the weapons to win what will be a wild-but-mild shootout. PICK: Chargers win 31-27 and cover the spread. Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Oakland Raiders (in London) Sunday 1 p.m., Fox The Seahawks are back to the power running approach they had with Marshawn Lynch, and it's helping open the downfield passing game for Russell Wilson. The Raiders don't pose a defensive threat to either aspect. Beast Mode will run hard against his old team to keep Oakland in the game, but Derek Carr will be more crash than splash across the pond. PICK: Seahawks win 27-17 and cover the spread. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) Sunday 1 p.m., Fox​ Jameis Winston takes back control as the Bucs’ QB after the bye with more of rookie Ronald Jones in the backfield. But those changes won’t help a reeling defensive back seven against the Falcons' backs, wideouts and tight ends. Matt Ryan will post his typical strong home performance as Atlanta begins its attempt to stay relevant in the NFC. PICK: Falcons win 41-31 and cover the spread. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS Blake Bortles made critical mistakes in Kansas City and put a damper on what was a fine Jacksonville offense otherwise. Against a Dallas team with a better pass rush and secondary, look for more efficient short-to-intermediate passing with plenty of T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars will easily erase the Cowboys' limited passing game and focus on making sure Ezekiel Elliott doesn't bust loose. PICK: Jaguars win 24-13 and cover the spread. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN The Packers know the urgency that comes with this game. The 49ers are decimated by injuries beyond the ACLs of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon. Their defense is ripe to be picked apart by Aaron Rodgers, while C.J. Beathard will make more critical mistakes on the road. For a change, Green Bay might even choose to run the ball more often and play better complementary football. PICK: Packers win 31-19 and cover the spread. Last week’s record straight up: 8-7 Last week’s record against the spread: 8-7 Season record straight up: 44-32 Season record against the spread: 31-44<doc-sep>
Corey Perrine/Getty Images The Philadelphia Eagles own recent bragging rights in the rivalry with the New York Giants, winning seven of the last eight meetings straight up. But New York covered the spread both meetings last year and is 3-1 ATS over the last four meetings. Where should the smart money fall for Thursday night's NFC East bout in New Jersey? NFL point spread: The Eagles opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report). NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.6-20.6 Eagles (NFL picks on every game). Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news. Why the Eagles can cover the spread The defending Super Bowl champs started 2-1 this year but are now trying to stop a two-game losing skid, after falling at home to Minnesota last week 23-21. Philadelphia trailed the Vikings 17-3 at the half and 20-3 in the third quarter, rallied to within one score twice in the fourth quarter but couldn't quite complete the comeback. Video Play Button Videos you might like On the day the Eagles got out-gained by Minnesota but only by a margin of 375-364. Unfortunately, a Carson Wentz fumble went the other way for a Vikings touchdown, a roughing the passer call led to another Minnesota score, another fumble was lost at the Vikings 5-yard line and a key intentional grounding penalty cost Philly a shot at a field goal. Add it up and those four miscues basically cost the Eagles about 17 points. Two weeks ago, Philadelphia led Tennessee 23-20 in overtime but gave up a touchdown with five seconds left to lose 26-23. Still, the Eagles have out-rushed each of their five opponents this season. Why the Giants can cover the spread The Giants are also coming off a tough loss, an excruciating 33-31 decision at Carolina last week. New York fell down to the Panthers 17-3 in the second quarter, trailed 27-16 early in the fourth then rallied to take a 31-30 lead on a Saquon Barkley touchdown with just over a minute to go. But the Giants then lost it on a 63-yard field goal by Graham Gano at the buzzer. On the day, New York out-gained Carolina 432-350, but a botched punt return/fumble and two Eli Manning interceptions basically cost the Giants 17 points. Of New York's four losses this season three have come by one score or less, a total of 14 points. And the 33-18 defeat against New Orleans two weeks ago was a one-score game before the Saints tacked on an insurance touchdown with two minutes to go. Smart betting pick Philadelphia, on its way to the Super Bowl last year, beat what was a bad New York team twice, by scores of 27-24 and 34-29. But the Giants covered both those games as dogs of five and seven points. Familiarity often breeds close games, and the last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by a total of 23 points. The smart money here likes the home dogs. NFL betting trends The total has gone under in nine of the Giants' last 12 games. The total has gone under in the Eagles' last four games at night. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.