Michigan basketball takes on Montana Thursday night in the NCAA tournament and here are three predictions for the Wolverines against the Griz. After 34 games and a 28-6 record, the Michigan basketball team hits the floor in Des, Moines Iowa tonight to kick off another run in the NCAA tournament. Of course, the team Michigan basketball will play, Montana is hoping to make that stay as short as possible as the Grizzlies are out for revenge following last season’s loss to the Wolverines in the round of 64. Yet, second-seeded Michigan is a heavy favorite tonight against the 15h-seeded Griz, who won the Big Sky Conference regular season and tournament titles. Montana comes in with a record of 26-8 and ranked as the 137th best team in the country according to the Kenpom rankings. Michigan, on the other hand, comes in as the fifth-ranked team and the No. 2 team in defensive efficiency. The Wolverines also rank 18th in offense, while Montana ranks outside the top 100 in both categories. Ahmaad Rorie, Sayeed Pridgett and Jamar Akoh are three of the names to know for the Griz as all averaged right around 15 points a game for a Montana team that scored 76.8 points per game and shot 38 percent from 3-point range. Slowing down the Grizzlies perimeter shooting will be a key and taking care of the basketball will also be vital for the Wolverines. As far as the game is concerned, here is a look at what should happen with three predictions for Michigan vs Montana.<doc-sep>NCAA tournament: West Region First round: No. 2 seed Michigan Wolverines (28-6) vs. No. 15 seed Montana Grizzlies (26-8) When: Approx. 9:20 p.m. Where: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa. TV: TNT. Radio: WWJ-AM (950). WTKA-AM (1050). More on the matchup: Michigan vs. Montana: 3 keys to victory, prediction U-M's problem in NCAA tournament: Pebble in their shoe Jeff Seidel U-M 68, Montana 50: This is a game that Michigan needs to play, just to forget the three painful losses to Michigan State. Michigan has to get right. The trio of MSU disasters exposed all of U-M’s warts. Could Michigan go on a long run? Yes, if everything clicks. But at this point, with the MSU losses so fresh in mind, it’s hard to see that happening. Shawn Windsor U-M 68, Montana 57: Montana has speed and quickness. It has the benefit of playing U-M a year ago. But the Wolverines have too much size, skill and tenacity on defense. More:Predicting ever winner for every game in NCAA tournament Nick Baumgardner U-M 63, Montana 49: Montana really does have just about everything a team needs to pull off an upset like this. Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine are two very talented guards and the Grizzlies have shooters all over the floor. If Jamar Akoh was at full strength, maybe I'd take a deeper look at this. But he's not.<doc-sep>CHICAGO — It's happening again, just in a different midwest town. Michigan started its run to the 2018 Final Four with a first-round win over Montana in West Region action last year. And while the teams are different seeds, playing in Des Moines, Iowa instead of Wichita, Kan., it'll be Michigan-Montana again on Thursday (approximately 9:20 p.m., TNT). A game that might be best remembered a year ago for its long delay due to a clock malfunction, Michigan-Montana started out as a much more interesting affair before the Wolverines ultimately willed their way to a convincing win. This Montana team is filled with familiar faces, players who played key roles in a Big Sky championship last season and did so again in 2018-19. And, it'll be a team that certainly knows Michigan. "A No. 2 seed is pretty good. But it's not about the seed. We'll go to Des Moines, which is kind of close but not that close, and we'll play Montana again," Michigan coach John Beilein said Sunday night after a Big Ten Tournament title game loss to Michigan State. "And they went out and won 27 or 28 games again." The Grizzlies are 26-8, to be exact. It's not the same team as last year's group, but it's close. The biggest question right now, though, centers around talented big man Jamar Akoh. The 6-foot-8, 253-pounder, who has averaged 15.5 points and 8.3 rebounds this season, has missed the last 15 games, which included the conference tournament, with an injury. His status for the NCAA tournament, at this point, appears to be unclear. More:Michigan basketball a 2 seed in NCAA tournament, opens against Montana More:Meet Michigan's NCAA tournament opponent: Montana Grizzlies Without Akoh, the Grizzlies have gone small. Guards Ahmad Rorie and Michael Oguine are both seniors now. They can both create and get buckets. Wing Sayeed Pridgett, a junior, has also been a huge piece of this team's run back to the tournament. Senior guards are critical this time of year, of course. But a guard-heavy team without its best big could be in for a tough day against a Michigan squad that now has Charles Matthews back on defense alongside Zavier Simpson. Michigan's top perimeter defenders are two of the best in America. And 7-foot center Jon Teske is one of the best in the Big Ten. [ Get ready for March Madness with our free Best of the Big Ten newsletter! Subscribe here. ] Montana could not score against Michigan last year, which was the ultimate difference in the game. Akoh got into early foul trouble that game and was never a factor. Simpson actually got into early foul trouble that night, too, in what was a strange game overall. This year's version of Montana is not quite as good as last year's, at least over the course of the regular season and conference tournament. Not having Akoh on the floor doesn't help anything, but the Grizzlies rank No. 161 nationally in defensive efficiency and are allowing an effective field goal percentage of 49.9 percent. The guards are dangerous, though, and that should be a concern for Michigan. This team shoots 38 percent from 3-point range. So, if someone gets hot, crazy things can happen. "I remember last year we came out flat against them," Michigan forward Isaiah Livers said. "I know we can't make that same mistake again." Contact Nick Baumgardner at nbaumgardn@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickbaumgardner. Read more on the Michigan Wolverines and sign up for our Wolverines newsletter. More:NCAA tournament 2019: Print your bracket here More:Michigan basketball vs. Montana in NCAA tournament: Scouting report, pick<doc-sep>James Hawkins of The Detroit News breaks down Thursday’s first-round NCAA Tournament game between Michigan and Montana (9:20 p.m.; TNT/950). Backcourt While junior guard Zavier Simpson has his limitations as a spotty shooter, he has been getting it done on both ends for Michigan so far this postseason. In three games in three days at the Big Ten tournament, he held Iowa’s Jordan Bohannon, Minnesota’s Dupree McBrayer and Michigan State’s Cassius Winston to a combined 19 points on 30.4 percent (7-for-23) shooting all while racking up 31 points and 30 assists. Sophomore guard Jordan Poole, on the other hand, has unlimited range and is a talented scorer with 15 games with at least 15 points, but has been susceptible to rough defensive outings against more experienced players (i.e. Michigan State’s Matt McQuaid). Senior guards Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine have that experience on their side as four-year starters on a veteran Montana squad. Rorie, an All-Big Sky first team selection, and Oguine are scrappy and were the only two Grizzlies who fared well in last year’s meeting with a combined 30 points and 14 rebounds. Edge: Michigan Frontcourt With fifth-year senior forward Jamar Akoh out since Feb. 7 with a knee injury and doubtful to return Thursday, Montana has gone to a small lineup with 6-foot-2 guard Timmy Falls, 6-5 guard Sayeed Pridgett and 6-7 wing Bobby Moorehead. All three can hit outside shots, with Pridgett serving as the team's high-percentage shooter (62.4 percent on 2s, 47.4 percent on 3s). But the lack of size and possible absence of Akoh, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, will be tough to overcome against Michigan. Ignas Brazdeikis and Charles Matthews should be able to impose their physical will on both ends, while Jon Teske should be able to command the paint and have his way around the rim. Edge: Michigan Bench Sophomore forward Isaiah Livers has picked up his play in recent weeks and is averaging 11.7 points (48.3 percent on 3s) over the last six games. With Matthews back from injury and Montana playing small, Livers’ versatility is vital and gives Michigan the option to mix and match at the five whenever it wants. Sophomore guard Eli Brooks has provided some solid minutes at times and freshman center Colin Castleton has shown he can adequately spell Teske for brief stretches. Montana primarily relies on two upperclassmen reserves who can pack a long-range punch: Kendal Manuel and Donaven Dorsey, a pair of sharpshooters who have each hit six 3s in a game and are shooting at least 43.2 percent from beyond the arc. Edge: Even Prediction Michigan is missing several key pieces from last year’s team while Montana returns the bulk of its squad in the first-round rematch. The Grizzlies have plenty of experience — ranking No. 6 nationally, per KenPom — played the nation’s 43rd-toughest nonconference schedule and rank No. 30 in 3-point shooting at 38 percent. But none of it will be enough to prepare Montana for Michigan’s staunch defense, which is is even better than a year ago and among the nation’s best at taking away the 3. Michigan 68, Montana 53 jhawkins@detroitnews.com Twitter: @jamesbhawkins<doc-sep>
DES MOINES, Iowa — Michigan's past two NCAA tournaments began with serious waves of momentum. This time around, things are a bit different. And yet it's important to keep perspective. The No. 2-seeded Wolverines are 28-6. They won 15 Big Ten games and played for a Big Ten regular-season title and tournament championship. Same time, Michigan enters Thursday's game against No. 15 Montana looking to kick-start itself after another loss to Michigan State, in Sunday's conference tournament final. Here are three keys and a prediction for Michigan-Montana: More:Have we seen Michigan basketball's ceiling, or is there more to come? Hammering mismatches Montana has played small ball for the better part of the last month as leading scorer and rebounder Jamar Akoh (6-foot-8, 253 pounds) has been sidelined with an injury. With that, Montana has started essentially a three-guard lineup with two wings. Bobby Moorhead is 6-foot-7, but he weighs less than 200 pounds. Offensively, it has worked out pretty well for Montana. The Grizzlies can shoot at every position. Ahmaad Rorie is a terrific scorer and one of the best mid-major guards in the country. Defensively, though, switches could get interesting. If Montana plays Michigan straight up, Jon Teske vs. anyone significantly smaller than him becomes a mismatch. If Montana switches screens, something it has done in the past, the Wolverines have to keep their foot on the gas in the pick-and-roll game. Small lineups can bother teams. But Michigan has the ability to play small itself with Isaiah Livers at the five spot. If Akoh can't play, or is limited, Michigan has to hammer that situation. [ Get ready for March Madness with our free Best of the Big Ten newsletter! Subscribe here. ] Defend the line Montana has some serious shooters. Sayeed Pridgett doesn't take a ton of 3s, but when he does, he hits them at better than 47 percent. Rorie's a 37 percent 3-point shooter. Reserves Kendal Manuel and Donaven Dorsey both shoot better than 40 percent from long range. Montana ranks No. 21 nationally in 3-point percentage at 38.3 percent. It makes sense, as the Grizzlies have been playing small with five shooters on the floor. "Manuel and Dorsey, the two shooters, are big-time shooters. They have a Duncan Robinson stroke from deep and they're athletic," Michigan coach John Beilein said Wednesday. "They open the floor so much for Rorie and (Michael) Oguine, who are two of the quickest guard I've ever seen." [ Michigan in Des Moines: How to buy tickets, places to eat ] Move the ball It's pretty simple at this point. When Michigan keeps the ball moving on offense, it has the capability of blowing just about anyone out of the gym. But when the ball sticks, one-on-one basketball happens. Michigan is not a one-on-one basketball team. It's a five-on-five basketball team. On Friday and Saturday in Chicago, Michigan thrashed both Iowa and Minnesota at both ends of the floor and made it look easy. The defense always hangs tough, but the offense can really shine if everyone on the floor is playing within the framework of what Beilein's trying to run. He has hammered home the importance of shot selection for months now. If Michigan doesn't get the message soon, it's season will be over. Montana's a senior-laden team with great guard play. The Grizzlies lost to Michigan last year. They're back again and absolutely capable of making life uncomfortable for the Wolverines on Thursday. But Michigan's also capable of dropping the hammer. More:In NCAA tournament, Michigan basketball will try to redefine its season Prediction Montana really does have just about everything a team needs to pull off an upset like this. Just about. Rorie and Oguine are two very talented guards and the Grizzlies have shooters all over the floor. If Akoh was at full strength, maybe I'd take a deeper look at this. But he's not. And Michigan's no doubt hungry to get itself right again after a rough second half Sunday in Chicago. Pick: Michigan 63, Montana 49 Contact Nick Baumgardner at nbaumgardn@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickbaumgardner. Read more on the Michigan Wolverines and sign up for our Wolverines newsletter.