FiveThirtyEight is examining each of the eight groups in the 2018 World Cup, which begins Thursday in Russia. Read about Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E and Group F. Group G is one that neutral fans would be forgiven for skipping until the final round of matches. Given the overpowering, Premier League-fueled strength of Belgium and England compared with minnows Tunisia and World Cup first-timers Panama, this group is really about who finishes first. And unless something miraculous happens, this is likely to be decided by the match between the two giants on June 28. Paper tiger or legit contender? Belgium has the most talented team in the group — its squad boasts the likes of Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Jan Vertonghen and Thibaut Courtois. Its rating of 85.4 in FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index places it sixth in the world, one spot above England’s 83.7; Belgium has an 87 percent chance of making it to the round of 16, compared with England’s 85 percent. Tactically, Roberto Martinez’s preferred system brings the best out of Hazard, who will likely flank Lukaku on the left of a front three, but shackles De Bruyne, who may be the world’s best offensive passer. During European qualifying, De Bruyne created just 0.32 “big chances” per 90 minutes, as defined by data firm Opta Sports, compared with 0.55 in the Premier League for Manchester City this season. Thomas Meunier, who plays right wing-back, was one of Belgium’s most important attacking players in qualifying, scoring five goals and assisting on seven. Given that the team’s first choice of left wing-back, Yannick Carrasco, is attack-minded as well, the defensive vulnerability is obvious: Belgium is aiming to out-score, not contain, its opposition. England’s elite high press Tournament teams that have forced the most high turnovers per game since the 2014 World Cup team Forced Turnover Rate 1 Spain 14.13 – 2 Germany 13.20 – 3 England 12.84 – 4 Switzerland 12.41 – 5 Argentina 12.26 – 6 France 12.15 – 7 Morocco 11.92 – 8 Denmark 11.88 – 9 Russia 11.50 – 10 Portugal 11.43 – High turnovers are when a team breaks up a new opponent position in the opponent’s defensive end before completing three passes. Source: Opta Sports England, meanwhile, plays similarly on paper but is much more balanced. In many ways, Gareth Southgate’s task is simply to take the English players of the Premier League’s best pressing teams — Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur — and fit them into a compatible system in Russia. Fortunately for England fans, this seems to be working. Of all teams to qualify for the World Cup, England won the ball in the opposition half after breaking up an opponent’s possession before it managed three passes more than any team other than Germany and Spain. It should be remembered that Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola coached the best domestic teams of the past two World Cup victors — Bayern Munich of Germany in 2014 and Barcelona of Spain in 2010 — and his influence is clear on Southgate’s plans. In the friendlies leading up to the tournament, England played a midfield three inspired by Manchester City, with one purely defensive player (either Jordan Henderson or Eric Dier) supporting two attacking midfielders, Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard. Underdog or also-ran? Neither of the other two teams in Group G is likely to move on. Tunisia has the better chance of managing a miracle, but it’s still a long shot — FiveThirtyEight’s simulations give it a 16 percent chance to get to the round of 16. Tunisia’s hopes were further dampened by a crushing injury to its best player, Youssef Msakni, who was its top scorer and shot-taker in qualifying. Wahbi Khazri, who flopped at Sunderland but has nine league goals for Rennes in France this season, is the side’s best hope for causing the opposition problems. Only three countries have a worse chance of making it to the round of 16 than Tunisia. One of them happens to be Panama at 12 percent, the lowest in the tournament. The fact that Los Canaleros are in Russia at all is testament to a brilliant qualifying story that saw them dramatically seal a place at the expense of the United States. Stranger things have happened, but England or Belgium would need to muster a catastrophic string of results for either of these two to have any real shot at the knockouts. Player to watch England’s most important player this summer is Raheem Sterling, who is coming to Russia off the back of a phenomenal season for Manchester City. While Guardiola tasked Leroy Sane with hugging the left wing and being a creator, Sterling was given a relatively free role that allowed him to move inside and excel at getting chances: In the Premier League this season, he ranked fifth in goals scored and tied for third in total assists, often scoring decisively late in matches for his club on its way to a record-breaking title. Sterling’s breakout season Where Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling ranked in key offensive statistics in the Premier League in 2017-18 Statistic (Per 90 Minutes) Value rank Percentile Goals 0.62 8 94.1 Assists 0.38 8 94.1 Expected goals 0.58 8 94.1 Expected assists 0.29 7 94.9 Successful dribbles 2.22 31 74.7 Among attackers with a minimum of 800 minutes Source: Football Whispers Sterling will play just off of Harry Kane, who will soak up most of the attention of opposition defenses keen to stop him from getting shots off. The Tottenham striker, who is arguably the best pure goal-scorer in the world, was scapegoated by English media during the 2016 Euros for not scoring despite the team’s inability to create chances for him. If he is to salvage his international reputation this summer, he will be heavily reliant on Sterling, whose instinctive ability to drift into space and get the ball in deep areas will be paramount. Kane will score if he gets chances, and it’s up to Sterling to facilitate that. Check out our latest World Cup predictions.<doc-sep>MANCHESTER UNITED boss Jose Mourinho has picked England to beat Belgium to top spot in their World Cup group. The Special One, 55, had his say on the outcome of every group at this summer's tournament in Russia. 4 Jose Mourinho has backed England to top Group G ahead of Belgium Credit: AFP And Mourinho has backed Jesse Lingard and Phil Jones over their Manchester United team-mates Romelu Lukaku and Marouane Fellaini in Group G, as he tips England to set-up a last-16 tie with Poland. Elsewhere, the Portuguese chief backed Spain to better his own nation, while predicting Australia, Nigeria and Senegal would progress from their groups. On his picks, Mourinho claimed: "I don't want to be emotional, but I have to be… "I want my players to win, but I also want my players to go on holiday. So, this is going to be tough." 4 Jose Mourinho is backing Phil Jones and his England team-mates this summer Credit: Getty Mourinho's World Cup group predictions Group A: Uruguay 1st – Russia 2nd (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) Group B: Spain 1st – Portugal 2nd (Morocco, Iran) Group C: France 1st – Australia 2nd (Peru, Denmark) Group D: Argentina 1st – Nigeria 2nd (Iceland, Croatia) Group E: Brazil 1st – Switzerland 2nd (Serbia, Costa Rica) Group F: Germany 1st – Mexico 2nd (Sweden, South Korea) Group G: England 1st – Belgium 2nd (Panama, Tunisia) Group H: Senegal 1st – Poland 2nd (Colombia, Japan) 4 Belgium will struggle to overcome England, says Jose Mourinho Credit: Getty He then roared "come on England" as he picked them over the Belgians to top Group G. On picking Spain over Portugal, Mourinho added: "I will show later that I am totally Portuguese but they are going to finish second in the group." Elsewhere, Mourinho has Uruguay to comfortably bettering hosts Russia in Group A, France to storm to the pinnacle of Group C and Argentina topping Group D. Brazil, Germany and Senegal are the other group winners, with big names like Denmark, Croatia, Serbia and Sweden missing out, according to Mourinho. SunSport profiles England ahead of this summer's World Cup in Russia MOST READ IN WORLD CUP NO HARD FEELINGS Man dumped by Gareth Southgate's wife insists he holds no grudge 'i want a girl' England star Kyle Walker's model girlfriend reveals she wants FOURTH baby 4 England will overcome Belgium to top Group G, says Jose Mourinho Credit: Reuters Should England make it past Poland in the last-16 - based on Mourinho's predictions - the Three Lions would take on Brazil or Mexico in the quarter-finals. Should Gareth Southgate and Co make it through that test, a semi-final clash with Uruguay, Portugal, France or Nigeria would await. Based on the Special One's picks, Uruguay go up against Portugal, with France taking on Nigeria in the last-16. Any one of eight teams would await England in the final should they win that - with Mourinho opting for Spain, Russia, Argentina, Australia, Germany, Switzerland, Senegal and Belgium.<doc-sep>Welcome to Yahoo Sports’ coverage of the 2018 World Cup. With the tournament approaching, and with 32 team previews available for consumption, it’s time to broaden our gaze and dissect the eight groups. Call them group previews if you like. But they are more so discussions. There will be stage setting and narrative building. There will be questions to answer and pose. There will be analysis and opinions, plus predictions and more. Next up is Group G. Group G team previews: Belgium | Panama | Tunisia | England Group G tiers Every World Cup group has its own structure; its own unique feel. But a simple numerical alignment, separating the four teams into anywhere between one and four tiers, goes a long way toward framing the discussion. Group G is a 2-2. It’s two tiers of two teams each. And those tiers are far, far apart. This might be one of the most stratified groups in World Cup history. That would seemingly make it one of the most uninteresting as well. But in reality, there’s intrigue all over. England against the minnows Group G is intriguing because England is intriguing – and because nearly all the England intrigue stems from performances against upper-crust foes. We’re talking Germany, Brazil, Italy and the Netherlands. Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions shut them all down with a recently implemented 3-5-2 system that has worked wonders so far. But it’s worked wonders against the big boys – how will it work against the minnows? Southgate will get one data point in an upcoming friendly against Costa Rica. And he got a positive one, albeit of a slightly different kind, in another friendly against Nigeria. But the group stage will more or less be his laboratory. There’s every chance England could struggle to break down Tunisia and Panama. There is, therefore, every chance the British press could go bats— insane after an early 0-0 draw, and the firestorm could burn all optimism to the ground. Southgate certainly has the personnel to carve up the two underdogs. Raheem Sterling will partner Harry Kane up top. Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard will be behind them, in half-8, half-10 roles. The attacking firepower right there, in that square, is considerable. Toss in Ashley Young’s crossing from left wingback (maybe), line-breaking passes from John Stones and Eric Dier, and the all-around awesomeness of Kyle Walker, and you’ve got a team that should be able to create chances against a few parked busses. But it’s all hypothetical until we see it play out. Story continues Harry Kane and Dele Alli are two of several attacking talents in the England team that should be able to break down Panama and Tunisia in Group G. But you never know. (Getty) Belgium should lead the group stage in goals Belgium, on the other hand, should have absolutely no trouble breaking down Panama and Tunisia. You think Kane-Sterling-Lingard-Alli is formidable? Try Romelu Lukaku, Dries Mertens, Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne. [Falls out of chair, mind boggled, laughing] Now think about those four against mediocre MLS defenders. That’s Group G – literally, in the case of Panama, and more or less when Tunisia comes knocking (and quivering) on Matchday 2. Belgium, quite simply, should cruise. It scored 43 goals in 10 qualifiers, only once being held below two in a given match. If all goes to plan, the Red Devils are the favorite to top the team goalscoring leaderboard after three matches. And if all goes to play, both them and England will have knockout round qualification wrapped up after two. Which means … We might not get a proper England-Belgium showdown Belgium and England might not have anything to play for on June 28. And that sucks. There will be no decided benefit to winning the group, given the mishmash nature of Group H. So the two Group G giants might experiment, or rest a player here or there. The 11 on the pitch might take their foots off the gas. A Colombia runner-up finish in Group H would further complicated Group G’s final day. Our best bet for excitement rests with the two managers, who may want to get an extra look at their first 11 against top opposition before the round of 16. Belgium, in particular, has not had enough success in its ludicrously attack-minded 3-4-3 to feel comfortable going into the knockout portion of the tournament. Roberto Martinez seems set on playing those four aforementioned stars, plus a winger (Yannick Carrasco) at left wingback, and just one holding midfielder. The England game could inform him whether the approach is a viable one moving forward. Because Panama and Tunisia won’t provide stiff enough tests. We’re not in CONCACAF anymore I would love to be wrong about this. But Panama is way, way, way in over its head. It’s best hope at three points against one of the European sides might be a benches-clearing brawl that gets six of England’s 11 sent off. (Don’t get any dark ideas, Blas Perez. Or at least give us credit if you do start something.) Any chance we’re overlooking Tunisia? Yes, actually. There’s a chance. The Eagles of Carthage have impressed in warmup friendlies. Although their defense is a bit shaky, they defend really well from the front. And by all accounts, they have some character. But they don’t have their best player, Youssef Msakni, who was behind a good portion of that character, and of what Tunisia could create going to goal. Without him, all eyes turn to EFL League One superstar (kind of) Wahbi Khazri – and likely to an early exit. Group G TV schedule All kickoff times ET Monday, June 18 Belgium vs. Panama, 11 a.m. (Fox Sports 1, Telemundo) Tunisia vs. England, 2 p.m. (Fox Sports 1, Telemundo) Saturday, June 23 Belgium vs. Tunisia, 8 a.m. (Fox, Telemundo) Sunday, June 24 England vs. Panama, 8 a.m. (Fox Sports 1, Telemundo) Thursday, June 28 Panama vs. Tunisia, 2 p.m. (Fox/FS1, Telemundo/Universo) England vs. Belgium, 2 p.m. (Fox/FS1, Telemundo/Universo) Group G predictions Ryan Bailey: Belgium (1), England (2) Henry Bushnell: Belgium (1), England (2) Joey Gulino: Belgium (1), England (2) Doug McIntyre: Belgium (1), England (2) Leander Schaerlaeckens: England (1), Belgium (2) Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H Group A: Russia | Saudi Arabia | Egypt | Uruguay Group B: Portugal | Spain | Morocco | Iran Group C: France | Australia | Peru | Denmark Group D: Argentina | Iceland | Croatia | Nigeria Group E: Brazil | Switzerland | Costa Rica | Serbia Group F: Germany | Mexico | Sweden | South Korea Group G: Belgium | Panama | Tunisia | England Group H: Poland | Senegal | Colombia | Japan – – – – – – – Henry Bushnell covers global soccer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Question? Comment? Email him at henrydbushnell@gmail.com, or follow him on Twitter @HenryBushnell, and on Facebook. More World Cup from Yahoo Sports: • 2018 World Cup preview hub • FC Yahoo Mixer: The Ronaldo vs. Messi debate • How Vladimir Putin can use the World Cup to his benefit • Ramadan dilemma for World Cup-bound Muslim players: faith or football? • USMNT’s qualifying failure, as told by the two coaches responsible<doc-sep>
The two European sides are overwhelming favorites in a top heavy group, where the Premier League will have plenty of say as to which winds up finishing in first. It would not be far fetched to suggest that England’s Premier League has a lot to do with the order of finish in Group G at the 2018 World Cup. First, there’s Belgium’s golden generation, featuring the likes of Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne and Vincent Kompany, Chelsea's Eden Hazard and Manchester United's Romelu Lukaku. Roberto Martinez, who used to manage in the Premier League, coaches the Red Devils and has as his assistant Arsenal legend Thierry Henry. Then there’s Gareth Southgate’s England, whose entire squad–featuring the likes of Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling–plays in the Premiership. There’s no shocking statement here: this is a two-horse race and any other result would be a huge surprise. Tunisia has the talent to cause problems, and was even 14th as recent as the May FIFA world ranking, but due to the injury of creative workhorse Youssef Msakni, which keeps him out of the World Cup, it makes the task all that much more difficult. As for Panama? Los Canaleros are making history by appearing in their first World Cup, but the outlook isn't great. Panama is the oldest team in the tournament, and when you face pacey forwards such as England’s Marcus Rashford or Belgium’s Michy Batshuayi, it typically doesn't end well. Match Schedule Monday, June 18 (11 a.m. ET): Belgium vs. Panama Monday, June 18 (2 p.m. ET): England vs. Tunisia Saturday, June 23 (8 a.m. ET): Belgium vs. Tunisia Sunday, June 24 (8 a.m. ET): England vs. Panama Thursday, June 28 (2 p.m. ET): England vs. Belgium Thursday, June 28 (2 p.m. ET: Tunisia vs. Panama Most Pivotal Match England vs. Belgium. Not only is this the most important match in Group G, this is also a contender for one of the most entertaining matches in the group stage, period. The fact that it’s also the final fixture of the round makes it that much more dramatic, given a winner would likely top the group. These are two squads who know each other extremely well, so it might just come down to who has the tactical upper hand. Football Meets Fútbol: World Cup Heightens Stars' Overlap, Mutual Admiration Potential sleeper team This is honestly a forced decision as the chances of anyone outside of Belgium and England to get out of this group are highly unlikely, but Tunisia has the tools to at the very least frustrate its European opponents. If, and it’s a big if, the African nation can get a point against England in the opening match of the tournament, then that can motivate the nation for bigger things to come. Top World Cup Snubs: Stars From Qualified Nations Missing Out on Russia 2018 Players to Watch Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium):This squad boasts an embarrassment of riches so you really can’t go wrong whichever way you go, so let’s stick with the obvious choice. If the Red Devils are an orchestra and the World Cup is the Metropolitan Opera House, then the Man City midfielder is the conductor to bring it all together. Raheem Sterling (England): With nearly 40 caps to his name and having been a member of the 2014 World Cup squad in Brazil, it’s hard to believe that Sterling is still only 23. Thanks to Pep Guardiola's guidance, the young winger has blossomed into one of the most dangerous players in Europe and is a major factor when England goes forward. Ellyes Skhiri (Tunisia): Born in France, it actually took Skhiri a while to commit to Tunisia, having only confirmed in February. It's a good thing, too, as the 23-year-old Montpellier defensive midfielder can help Tunisia stem the tide against its more talented opponents. Gabriel Torres (Panama): An experienced striker with threatening pace, Torres is the end product of Panama’s counterattack. The thinking here is that he will lead the line, aiming to capitalize on any opportunity won by the midfield. United States of El Tri: Mexico Owns America's World Cup Spotlight Predictions to go through Don't expect any dramatic turns here. Belgium and England will go through. The bigger question is who wins the group and secures, potentially, a clearer path in the knockout stage. But in terms of getting out of Group G, there's only one real outcome due to the overwhelming talent from both sides.