Welcome back to the Forecast! And it really is an excited welcome! The Timbers won! If you thought it was a dream, like I did, rest assured: it was not. Your Portland Timbers really did travel to Ohio, face off against their former coach, and walk away with three goals and three points! Early on, the Timbers just managed to avoid conceding first after a bad Jeff Attinella clearance gifted Federico Higuain with a chance at a near-open net. But Higuain rushed the shot and it went wide, keeping the Columbus Crew scoreless. Not long after, Larrys Mabiala opened the scoring from a Diego Valeri free kick. Just minutes later, PTFC scored again when Jeremy Ebobisse finished a Sebastian Blanco assist. After halftime, Attinella gifted Columbus another chance, and this time Pedro Santos found the net. Other than that, the Timbers managed to keep Columbus fairly quiet for the rest of the half, and then put the game to bed with a rocket from Jorge Moreira at the beginning of stoppage time. The Timbers no longer have the worst point total in the league! A big shout-out to MindfulCyclist, jocked07, and Timbers Pride, who all predicted a Timbers win in what I considered a near-hopeless matchup. But prediction of the week goes to landoid, who not only predicted a PTFC win, but also called the scoreline. Excellent work! And since the Timbers earned three points for the first time all season, I figured I should let you all know how many points you’ve earned. The standings have arrived! Standings Match Seven Participant Total Points COL LAFC FCC LAG SJE FCD CCFC Participant Total Points COL LAFC FCC LAG SJE FCD CCFC UNOprivateer 36 10 5 1 5 1 10 4 Timbers Pride 27 7 3 1 5 3 3 5 MindfulCyclist 25 9 6 0 1 1 3 5 landoid 23 4 5 1 3 0 0 10 MrMoody 23 1 5 0 5 1 10 1 dkob29 22 2 6 4 4 1 5 0 LampzTheLegend 21 0 0 0 10 0 11 0 MacVanek 21 4 9 0 8 0 0 0 tpet1433 19 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 BarmyTarmy 18 5 4 0 4 0 5 0 MofoOG 16 6 3 0 3 0 4 0 jocked07 14 5 0 0 1 0 1 7 STYLES34 14 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 lefthanded49 13 0 3 1 4 0 1 4 straight red 13 1 0 0 4 0 8 0 TimberTim 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 This Saturday, the Timbers will face their toughest test since LAFC. They travel to Canada to face Toronto FC, who currently sit on 2.17 points per game. They’ve had five matches at BMO Stadium, and haven’t lost one; they’re averaging three goals per game; and they have a goal differential of +7, second only to LAFC’s absurd +18. On the plus side, their leading scorer, Jozy Altidore, is out with (guess what!) a hamstring injury. On the downside, Alejandro Pozuelo is expected to play, and he’s been ridiculous in the four games he’s seen, earning four goals and five assists! And Jordan Hamilton, Altidore’s projected replacement, had a brace in last weekend’s match, so Toronto still has a lot of firepower to go against the Timbers’ questionable defense. To have a chance, PTFC will have to play at least as well as last week in addition to eliminating Attinella’s giveaways. But for the first time all year, Portland has some momentum, building off an improved performance in Dallas to get the win last weekend. Can they maintain their upward trend and at least earn a point? Total Cards O/U: 4.5 The Scoring Format: Correct score: 5 points Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points Each clean sheet: 2 points Each goal-scorer: 1 point Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point Goal/assist bonus: 1 point Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point Each player with a red card: 1 point (Can not earn points for predicting 0 red cards, but you may predict up to 3 players with a red.) earn points for predicting 0 red cards, but you may predict up to 3 players with a red.) Over/under on total cards: 1 point Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print): You may amend your prediction at any point up to kickoff to account for game day 18 announcements. I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game. Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last few years, so let’s keep it that way! The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (For example, if Blanco scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination, you get a total of three points: 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus.) Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK: Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as an FK, and an FK as a PK. Just like predicting a player assist, you earn an assist point if you correctly predict an unassisted or free kick goal. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction. Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.<doc-sep>The Portland Timbers may have gotten their first win of the 2019 season, but that does not mean that their grueling schedule has let up. The Timbers’ season-opening road swing continues today as they take on another Eastern Conference contender in Toronto FC. After six matches of struggling to put in a full ninety minute performance, the Timbers finally were able to put together a full game in their 3-1 win against Columbus Crew SC in their 3-1 win last weekend. The Crew were considered one of the most sound defensive teams in MLS coming into the match, but the Timbers were able to expose them, putting up three goals for just the second time this year while still keeping the struggling Crew attack from getting up and running. Now, however, the Timbers face a Toronto team that has had no problem whatsoever scoring goals, notching eighteen in their six matches so far this season. Toronto will likely be without star striker Jozy Altidore due to a hamstring injury, but that might not mean much with Giovinco-replacement Alejandro Pozuelo buzzing around the final third for TFC. Already on four goals and five assists in just four games with Toronto, Pozuelo promises to be a key part of Toronto’s ability to simply over power teams in the attack and will take everything that the Timbers’ defense has got to keep contained. Previews Storylines: “Hopefully the offense can get a bit more of a kick in the rear. Of the three goals scored last week, only one was by a forward or midfielder, and that was Ebobisse. The other two, defender goals: a sweet header and a well-placed goal off the foot of Moreira.” Swing by the Rose City Forecast to make your predictions about today’s match. Match Information Watch it on: ROOT Sports Where: BMO Field in Toronto Canada When: Saturday, April 27th at 12:00 p.m. PT Portland Timbers: 1-5-1, 11th place in the Western Conference, 3-1 win at Columbus Crew SC Toronto FC: 4-1-1, 3rd place in the Eastern Conference, 4-3 win vs. Minnesota United<doc-sep>The Portland Timbers won their second match of the season today, taking down high-flying Toronto FC 2-1 and putting in another strong defensive shift to move past their rocky start to the season. In a match between two teams known for their spotty defending in 2019, play started out in a predictably conservative fashion with neither side willing to expose themselves. Possession and half-chances came for both sides, but it was off a 20th minute set piece that the deadlock was broken. After a Toronto free kick was punched out of bounds by Steve Clarke, Alejandro Pozuelo served a curling free kick into the Timbers box where it was met by the head of Eriq Zavaleta. The header was powered into the crowd in the box where it was scrambled away and fell to the feet of Johnathan Osario for the simple tap goal. The Timbers were quick to answer and in the 22nd minute they pulled one back off a corner of their own. After Diego Valeri served a ball in toward the top of the box, Bill Tuiloma shook himself free of his defender and peeled into space. As the ball dropped to him, Tuiloma took its measure and swung in for a thunderous volley that swerved away from Toronto keeper Quentin Westberg before splashing into the back of the net and drawing the sides even at 1-1. Smelling the blood in the water, both sides looked to go on the attack and for long stretches of the first half it was the Timbers on the front foot, holding the ball in the attacking half and probing for another moment of weakness from the Toronto back line. The half provided a break from the Timbers’ pressure for the Reds and allowed the home side to regain their footing. The respite would not last and in the 70th minute the Timbers struck again. Working the ball quickly down the pitch, the Timbers found Sebastian Blanco running down the left flank. With his head up, Blanco hit a curling cross into the the Toronto box and picked out the run of Jeremy Ebobisse who was cutting between the Toronto center backs. As the ball fell in front of him, Ebobisse laid out for the diving header, making a solid connection from just inside the six yard box and sending the ball into the back of the net for his fourth goal of the year. Down 2-1, Toronto threw men forward in the final minutes of the match, looking for the equalizer. To answer them the Timbers shifted from their starting 4-4-2 to a 5-3-2, looking to hunker down and see out the match. The Timbers had a chance to put the match away in the 90th minute when a quick break down the pitch put Diego Chara in one on one with Westberg. As the Toronto keeper closed him down, Chara looked to place a shot past him, but could not quite pick out the post, instead sending his shot just wide of goal. While the final minutes of the match were nail-biting, the Timbers held off a final Toronto surge and claimed their second win of the season. The Timbers are on the road yet again next Saturday when they will take on Western Conference foes Real Salt Lake.<doc-sep>The Portland Timbers have officially turned a corner. The Timbers dropped to last place in the MLS standings amid a five-game losing streak early this season, conceding 17 goals and posting a negative-11 goal differential over their first six games. But Portland has looked like a different team over the last three weeks, and the club is only getting better. Portland (2-5-1, 7 points) put in arguably its best performance of the season Saturday to beat a strong Toronto FC (4-2-1, 13 points) club 2-1 at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada. The Timbers have now won back-to-back games on the road. "It feels good, for sure, especially because this is our team,” Timbers coach Giovanni Savarese said. "This is the Portland Timbers that we know, with the spirit, with the mentality, with the heart, with the sacrifice inside the field.” Toronto struck first Saturday with a goal from Jonathan Osorio. Eriq Zavaleta beat Timbers center back Bill Tuiloma to a corner kick from Alejandro Pozuelo in the 20th minute and headed the ball down into the box. The Timbers allowed the ball to bounce around before it landed at the feet of Osorio, who scored to give Toronto a 1-0 lead. Toronto earned the corner kick after Portland goalkeeper Steve Clark, who started over Jeff Attinella Saturday, knocked away a free kick from Pozuelo, instead of catching it. Portland has conceded first in seven out of eight games this season. Prior to Saturday, the Timbers had posted five losses and a draw when allowing the first goal this year. But the Timbers did a tremendous job to respond after conceding first Saturday. Portland pressured Toronto for the remainder of the half, outshooting the home team 8-5 and earning four corner kicks in the first 45 minutes. The Timbers, who caused Toronto a lot of problems with their crosses throughout the game, looked as dangerous as they’ve looked all season in the attack. The Timbers found the equalizer just two minutes after allowing the first goal. Tuiloma sent a beautiful strike into the net on a volley after a corner kick from Diego Valeri in the 22nd minute. Valeri has six assists this season, which is tied for the league-lead. “It feels awesome,” Tuiloma said. “The team battled until the end. We gave it our all. Everyone knew what we needed to do on the field and we knew what Toronto was going to give us. It was a great team effort.” Portland took the lead in the second half. Timbers forward Jeremy Ebobisse made a diving header to redirect a cross from Sebastian Blanco into the net in the 70th minute and give the Timbers the decisive 2-1 lead. Ebobisse leads the Timbers with four goals this season. Toronto didn’t come all that close to finding the equalizer. The club’s best chance came in the 81st minute when forward Ayo Akinola put his shot over the net after a dangerous cross from Pozuelo. “I think it was a tenacious performance from the guys,” Ebobisse said. “Obviously to go down 1-0 early on in the game, we could have put our heads down. Maybe at the beginning of the year, we might have started a little infighting, but I think with last week and this week, we’ve seen a little more togetherness and tenacity in the group.” The Timbers have employed the same 4-4-2 formation and started nearly the same lineup in each of their last two games. It has paid off. The club earned its first win of the season in Columbus last week before beating Toronto Saturday. Portland is in the middle of 12 straight games on the road to open the season, due to construction at Providence Park. The club had always hoped to earn at least 12 points from that stretch of games, a mark that seemed nearly impossible just a few weeks ago. But after a terrible start to the season, the Timbers now have seven points in eight matches and are clearly moving in the right direction. “Over the last three weeks, the guys have stepped up the level,” Savarese said. “Today was a very difficult victory against a very good team in a difficult stadium. The guys put in everything to make sure we got the win that we were looking for.” -- Jamie Goldberg | jgoldberg@oregonian.com 503-853-3761 | @jamiebgoldberg Visit subscription.oregonlive.com/newsletters to get Oregonian/OregonLive journalism delivered to your email inbox.<doc-sep>
The Story So Far Last week the Portland Timbers traveled to Columbus to take on the Crew and former coach Caleb Porter. The Timbers did something they haven’t all season: win. Goals from Larrys Mabiala, Jeremy Ebobisse, and new right back Jorge Moreira sealed the win for the Timbers. Hopefully the first win of the season represents the turn of the corner. As for Toronto FC, they took on the Loons of Minnesota United. There were seven goals scored, three braces, and four lead changes, and in the end TFC came away with the 4-3 win. They currently sit third in the East, just four points off the lead and just one point behind the Impact. No doubt about it, the Timbers are going to have their hands full when it comes to TFC. So, can the Timbers turn one win into two? Or will Toronto FC add to their 3-0-1 record at home? What To Watch For Toronto FC (4-1-1, 13 pts) Right now Greg Vanney’s Toronto FC lead the league, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game. While most of Toronto FC’s fan base and I’m sure the team itself were not happy with the way things went down in 2018, when they finished 9th and out of the playoffs, fans have to be optimistic with the team off to a 4-1-1 start (three of those wins at home). The Reds will be without the services of star striker Jozy Altidore who tweaked his hamstring against the Loons and should be out about three weeks. Also out is defender Drew Moor. It’s possible that homegrown forward Jordan Hamilton could get the start in the absence of Jozy Altidore. Just because you take Jozy out of the equation doesn’t mean this team is hamstrung offensively, they’ve scored 18 goals in just six matches. On the other side of the coin, their defense is nothing to write home about. They’ve allowed 11 in the same stretch of matches, but still have a plus goal differential. Vanney for the most part uses a 3-5-2 formation, but against the Loons they came out with a 3-5-1-1, which gives them a numerical advantage in the midfield. It also allows the wingbacks/wingers to push up into the attack. Look for TFC to spread the pitch wide, while dinking around with short passes to keep possession. They’ll attack down the right often and are known to run the offside trap. The offense of the Reds could give the Timbers defense fits all night long even without their goal scoring leader (Altidore). One of the players you need to keep an eye on is Spaniard Alejandro Pozuelo, who has four goals and leads the team with five assists. In 90 minutes against the Loons he netted a brace. If they keep with the 3-5-1-1, look for Pozuelo to play just underneath the striker. Portland Timbers (1-5-1, 4 pts) Last week’s win took the Timbers out of the absolute bottom of the Western Conference, that particular distinction now belongs to the hapless Colorado Rapids. Not only did the Timbers earn their first victory, it was the first match this season where they scored first. Now it’s time to put that in the rearview mirror and focus on the Reds of Toronto. The Timbers came out in a 4-4-2 instead of the 4-2-3-1 they normally use. This seemed to work well for the Timbers, especially against a team trying to overload the midfield. The Timbers handled it well and got the win. Now they face the Reds who are very good on the offensive end, and a bit questionable when it comes to the defense. So this match could come down to which offense is better, and could end up with a decent goal tally. I still don’t think the Timbers defense is where it really needs to be, but seeing Bill Tuiloma getting the start next to Mabiala makes me happy. Cascante was not getting it done. Hopefully the offense can get a bit more of a kick in the rear. Of the three goals scored last week, only one was by a forward or midfielder, and that was Ebobisse. The other two, defender goals: a sweet header and a well-placed goal off the foot of Moreira. But it worked, and I’d like it to keep working. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Giovanni Savarese sticks with the 4-4-2. It worked in Columbus, and against a team like Toronto I think it will be effective.