1 Best Picture: 'Roma' This is a weird Oscar year in that there is absolutely no Best Picture frontrunner. The early choice, A Star Is Born, lost a lot of the buzz it had back in fall, though it’s still nominated in several categories and could pull off a win. But it’s lacking a Best Editing, which statistically makes it unlikely to win Best Picture (only one movie since 1981 has won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination; that was Birdman in 2014.) Bohemian Rhapsody, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite and Green Book are all plausible picks, but none of them feels like a frontrunner. Roma earned even more nominations than were predicted, including surprise nods for both its lead and supporting actresses, though this one is also lacking a Best Editing nom. Still, this Alfonso Cuarón passion project might have a slight edge, especially since it took home quite a few Golden Globes, Critics' Choice awards, and BAFTAs.<doc-sep>Roma (Photo: Netflix); Green Book (Photo: Universal) When it comes to the 2019 Academy Awards, the drama wasn’t just on the big screen. From the ill-advised introduction of the Best Popular Film category to the Kevin Hart debacle to the since-reneged decisions to cut four categories from the live broadcast, feature only two of the Best Original Song performances and not include last year’s acting winners as presenters (so exhausted, are we missing anything? ), the gaffes have been plentiful. It remains to be seen how show producers will pull off the Oscars’ first hostless iteration since 1989. But thankfully there’s a bit of suspense left when it comes to, you know, the actual awards being doled out. Best Picture seems wide open — Roma? Green Book?? Black Panther??? — even if most of the acting categories feature heavy favorites following the long slog that is awards season. (In an uncharacteristically great decision the academy made over the past year, they’ve bumped the 2020 ceremony up a few weeks, which should help heighten the suspense in all categories next year.) Without further ado, here are my picks in every category, including those pesky shorts. (And check out our spiffy printable ballot, so you can play along at home.) BEST PICTURE Nominees: Black Panther BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody The Favourite Green Book Roma A Star Is Born Vice This is one of the closest Best Picture races in years. Normally a clear favorite has emerged at this point, but a different film has won each of the major guild awards, with the Producers Guild going with Green Book, the Directors Guild going with Roma, the Screen Actors Guild going with Black Panther and the Writers Guild going with Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Eighth Grade (neither of which is nominated here). The Golden Globes’ top drama prize, meanwhile, went to Bohemian Rhapsody, while comedy/musical went to Green Book, and BAFTA’s top prize went to Roma, while The Favourite took home Best British Film. Most pundits agree the race will come down to Alfonso Cuarón’s deeply felt autobiographical drama Roma (which be the first Oscar win for Netflix) and Peter Farrelly’s middle-brow comedic drama Green Book (which would be impressive given its myriad controversies). Because of the Oscars “preferential balloting” system, which allows voters to rank films and because both films have their detractors — Roma perceived as too slow and cold, and Green Book too antiquated — Marvel’s well-regarded superhero sensation Black Panther could pull off the surprise complete its hero journey. Nonetheless, considering consecutive wins by artier, director-driven films like Moonlight and The Shape of Water, it feels like Roma‘s race to lose. Story continues Prediction: Roma Don’t be surprised by: Green Book Dark horse: Black Panther BEST DIRECTOR Nominees: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Adam McKay, Vice Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War Farrelly’s absence in this category could hurt Green Book in the Best Picture race (a rare feat last achieved by Argo in 2013 despite Ben Affleck’s being denied a directed nod). This academy likes to award ambitious visual feats, which is why someone like, well, Alfonso Cuarón was able to defeat Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) in 2014 for Gravity. With that in mind, Cuarón and Roma have the edge, but don’t discount Spike Lee given the sentimentality about his long-overdue first nomination in this category. Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón Don’t be surprised by: Spike Lee BEST ACTRESS Nominees: Yaltiza Aparicio, Roma Glenn Close, The Wife Olivia Colman, The Favourite Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? While Lady Gaga played the role of early favorite for her big crossover, and Olivia Colman briefly assumed the role of favo(u)rite for her rousing portrayal of Queen Anne, the momentum now belongs to Glenn Close, who has so far gone 0 for 6 at the Oscars but who has won all the major lead-up awards. Close is indeed excellent — she’s Glenn Close; it’s what she does — but this is as much of a legacy Oscar as you’ll find this year. Prediction: Glenn Close Dark horse: Olivia Colman BEST ACTOR Nominees: Christian Bale, Vice Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Viggo Mortensen, Green Book For much of last fall, A Star Is Born was on top of the world and writer-director-star Bradley Cooper appeared destined for a handful of Oscars. Cooper delivers a killer performance — one in which he disappeared under the skin of a haggard rocker, channeled Eddie Vedder, changed his voice a whole octave and sang his own songs. But that was before the emergence of Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice, and before Star faded like Jackson Maine. Since then, Rami Malek has banked a bevy of trophies for playing Freddie Mercury in the Queen biopic. Despite complaints against the film and the fact that unlike Cooper, Malek lip-synced the music, it’s difficult to envision the actor not winning for his captivating and showy turn. Prediction: Rami Malek Don’t be surprised by: Christian Bale Dark horse: Bradley Cooper BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Nominees: Amy Adams, Vice Marina de Tavira, Roma Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Another acting category with a clear-cut favorite: first-time nominee Regina King for her alternately nuanced and explosive performance in If Beale Street Could Talk — but don’t bet any first-born children. King was snubbed by the SAG Awards, and the last time an actor won an Oscar without a SAG nom was 2013 (Christoph Waltz, Best Supporting Actor for Django Unchained). But you’d have to go all the way back to 2002 (Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind) to see it happen in this category. If King is dethroned (sorry), expect the statuette to go to the previously 0-for-5 Amy Adams or BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz. Prediction: Regina King Don’t be surprised by: Amy Adams Dark horse: Rachel Weisz BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Nominees: Mahershala Ali, Green Book Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell, Vice SAG winner Mahershala Ali is the heavy favorite here for his understated performance as piano virtuoso Don Shirley — and probably scores a few bonus points for being the only major player involved in Green Book not to suffer some bad PR snafu. However, he is just as much the lead as Viggo Mortensen, which underscores the complaint that Green Book tackles racism through the prism of a white man. Ali also just won two years ago for Moonlight, but a repeat so soon wouldn’t totally unprecedented: Christoph Waltz won twice in four years for Inglourious Basterds and Django. But there could be a surprise here: There are a lot of folks who want to see 74-year-old Sam Elliott win his first Oscar for his heart-wrenching turn in A Star Is Born. My prediction: Sam Elliott (DEFINITELY) Don’t be surprised by: Mahershala Ali Dark horse: Richard E. Grant BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Nominees: Paul Schrader, First Reformed Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly, Green Book Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Adam McKay, Vice Like Best Picture, this race could come down to Roma versus Green Book, and could offer voters an opportunity to reward Farrelly, who was left out the Best Director race. But there are Academy members who will avoid Green Book due the anti-Muslim tweet that surfaced from co-writer (and son of Mortensen’s character) Nick Vallelonga, who has since disappeared from the campaign trail. That opens the door for voters to recognize a beloved, much-nominated film like The Favourite, which may not win too much elsewhere. Prediction: The Favourite Don’t be surprised by: Roma or Green Book Dark horse: First Reformed BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nominees: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs Charlie Watchel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmont and Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters, A Star Is Born<doc-sep>Looking for a handy cheat sheet before making your predictions in all 24 categories at the 91st Academy Awards? Then click through our photo gallery above to see the favorites in each of the categories at the 2019 Oscars from the big one, Best Picture (“Roma”), right down to those three races for short films. That latter trio of categories can be make-or-break when it comes to winning your office pool. We came up with these Oscar predictions by generating odds based on five groups of people who make predictions at Gold Derby: 33 journalists who are experts as they cover Hollywood year-round; our in-house team of 9 editors; two sets of site users: the top 24 at predicting last year’s Oscars and the all-star 24 from the last two years combined; and thousands of readers like you. Besides Best Picture, we are predicting that “Roma” will win three more Oscars from its 10 bids in all: both Best Director and Best Cinematography for Alfonso Cuaron; and Best Foreign Language Film. SEE Oscars 2019: Everything you need to know – start time, presenters, performers, predictions “The Favourite” will go three for 10 with wins for Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. “Vice” will prevail in two of its eight races: Best Film Editing and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. “Bohemian Rhapsody” is tipped to take home two Oscars from five nominations: Best Actor (Rami Malek) and Best Sound Mixing. Three of the other Best Picture nominees will win one Oscar apiece: “BlacKkKlansman” will take the adapted screenplay award, “Green Book” will earn Mahershala Ali his second Supporting Actor Oscar in three years; and “A Star is Born” will win Best Original Song (“Shallow”). The eighth Best Picture nominee, “Black Panther,” will lose all seven of its races. SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions “If Beale Street Could Talk” may have been snubbed for Best Picture but it will still win two of its three Oscar bids: Best Supporting Actress (Regina King) and Best Original Score. “First Man” will fly off with one Oscar from four nominations: Best Sound Editing. “The Wife” only has one bid but it will be a winner with leading lady Glenn Close finally claiming an Oscar after six losses. “Avengers: Infinity War” will win Best Visual Effects, “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” will be named Best Animated Feature and “Free Solo” will take Best Documentary Feature. DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums<doc-sep>
By the time the 2019 Oscars are heading toward their climax on Sunday night, we may already have a good idea who is going to win Best Director and what is going to win Best Picture. For instance, if Cold War wins Best Foreign Language Film, perhaps that means Roma really is going to take Best Picture. If The Favourite or Vice start to run away with smaller awards, does that mean they can sneak in? We looked at these scenarios and more in formulating our predictions for what is going to win on Oscar night 2019. Below you’ll find our breakdowns and predictions for Best Picture and Best Director. Best Picture Anna Swanson: The Favourite is an imaginative and emotionally complex drama about devotion, ambition, and love. It displays some of the best performances of the year and is unlike any period piece we’ve seen in a long time. While it would’ve been really nice to have If Beale Street Could Talk or First Reformed in this category to root for, The Favourite isn’t a bad pick at all. So it’s a shame it doesn’t stand a chance. In fact, despite all the nominations The Favourite has received, it would be disappointing but not totally surprising if the film went home empty handed. Roma, on the other hand, is the clear frontrunner. The Academy loves Alfonso Cuaron and the narrative appeal of a foreign film — especially this foreign film — finally taking home Hollywood’s highest honor is too good to pass up. Roma has won a lot of people over and many cite it as an emotional cinematic odyssey. As with any of the nominated films, there isn’t a total consensus and there are some, myself included, who would argue the film is a beautiful sheen covering a hollow character study, but for the most part Roma has proven to be a popular and beloved nominee this year. Most importantly, the film has avoided controversy, has the narrative working in its favor, and it stands a damn good chance of taking home the Best Picture Oscar on Sunday night. What should win: The Favourite What will win: Roma Best Director Neil Miller: This year’s Best Director group is a real bro-down. Which is a shame, because there were so many wonderful movies directed by the other 50% of the population last year. Now that we’ve said that, let’s talk about this year’s all-male revue: Pawel Pawlikowski directed the prettiest film of the bunch (Cold War) and is just happy to be here. Yorgos Lanthimos is in a similar boat with The Favourite. Something tells me both of them will be back again in the future. Adam McKay directed the most energetic and roaring film of the bunch (Vice) but unless The Academy is about to do a hilarious heel-turn and give Vice a bunch of awards, I don’t see him winning. Alfonso Cuaron has been here before and Roma is a spectacular film. He might just win Best Director and Best Cinematography and make history. But let’s talk about Spike Lee. It feels like Spike is due. And I know he received an honorary Oscar in 2016, but it’s not the same. He’s been worthy of it numerous times. And Blackkklansman is a movie that resonates in big ways. It’s time. Who should win: Spike Lee Who will win: Spike Lee To read our breakdowns and analysis of every one of this year’s categories, follow the links below: To follow our teams live-tweets of the Oscars, check out either @OnePerfectShot or @rejectnation.