Octavious Cooley never knew the defender was behind him. The Ole Miss tight end, sprinting downfield after a 31-yard catch and run, was so busy stiff-arming an Arkansas cornerback on his left that he didn’t realize the safety was closing in on his right until the ball’d been punched out. It tumbled to the ground and just trembled there, as if tied to a string keeping it from rolling out of bounds, until a Razorback defender hurtled himself on top of it. “Fuck,” I muttered over a half-empty Miller Lite. “We’re gonna lose this game.” My friends, a group of Mississippi ex-pats sprawled around a TV in the northern suburbs of Washington, D.C., rolled their eyes. Ole Miss was leading 31-7 midway through the second quarter of a 2017 matchup in Oxford. The offense, fueled by a breakout performance from quarterback Jordan Ta’amu in his first game as the starter, was cruising up and down the field against an overwhelmed Hogs defense. Ten plays later, Arkansas scored. They pilfered an interception on the Rebels’ next drive and scored again. They kept scoring in the second half and by the time the clock hit zeros, they’d rallied from down 24 points to win, 38-37. My profane post-fumble prediction wasn’t a moment of clairvoyance born of some advanced football acumen. I probably muttered the same thing 10 times that game. It revealed no more foresight than if I’d said it when the Razorbacks won the opening coin toss. It was a simple acknowledgment that anything—a 24-point comeback, a last-second field goal, a fourth-and-25 prayer—can happen in this rivalry. For the better part of a decade, Ole Miss-Arkansas has been the most insane and unpredictable series in college football. I grew up about a 10-minute walk from Little Rock’s War Memorial Stadium, where this Saturday’s Ole Miss-Arkansas game will take place—a game in which Vegas favors the Rebels by a touchdown but which everyone familiar with this series knows might as well be a coin flip. Football rivalry is fueled not by wins and losses but by proximity. Raised by a pair of Ole Miss alumni in the heart of Hog country, I developed as searing a dislike of the Razorbacks as one can reasonably harbor against a sports team. I hated Clint Stoerner. I hated Matt Jones. I hated Wally Hall, the local sports writer whose daily columns in the Democrat-Gazette were objective in the same way that propaganda in Stalin’s Russia was. But, boy, did I hate Houston Nutt. After his ignominious departure from Fayetteville and subsequent flameout in Oxford, it’s easy to forget that Hooty Dale helmed a pretty successful SEC program for a decade in the hills of northwest Arkansas. The Hogs went 7-3 against Ole Miss during that span, including a four-year winning streak from 2003-07 to close out Nutt’s tenure—a streak that coincided with my four years of high school, when I had to trudge into class on Monday and endure my friends’ jabs. Ole Miss and Arkansas had coexisted as division opponents in neighboring states since the Razorbacks moved over from the old Southwest Conference in 1991, but Nutt’s hiring at Ole Miss in 2007 elevated the rivalry to previously unknown levels of lunacy. In his highly anticipated return to Fayetteville that first season, the game swung on an offensive pass interference that backed the Hogs out of field goal range in the final minute. I remember being sprawled on a cold metal bleacher at the top of Razorback Stadium, as emotionally spent as I’ve ever been after a Rebels win. Nutt made it two in a row against his former team the following year, thumping the Hogs in Oxford. A friend from Little Rock and I spotted a jubilant (and as far as I could tell, intoxicated) Nutt after the game as he waited in the back seat of an SUV parked outside of a pizza joint on the Square. “What do you think about Mitch Mustain?” I asked through the window, referring to the former Razorback quarterback whose transfer two years prior played no small role in Nutt’s departure from Fayetteville. “FUCK MITCH MUSTAIN,” Nutt replied gleefully. That was the last win Nutt ever notched over Arkansas. Two years later, his Rebels blew a 17-point lead in a home loss to the Hogs, extending Ole Miss’ conference losing streak to 10 games. Nutt was fired two weeks later. The arrival of Hugh Freeze in Oxford—and, a year later, of Bret Bielema in Fayetteville—ushered the series into the peak of its frenzied hysteria. 2012 After a four-play, 55-yard drive brought Arkansas even with just over two minutes remaining, the Rebels marched downfield for a game-winning Bryson Rose field goal as time expired, stunning the crowd in Little Rock. 2013 With the game separated by just three points late in the third quarter, Bo Wallace connected on touchdown passes of 75 and 55 yards in the span of three minutes to hand Ole Miss a 34-24 win. 2014 A top-10 Ole Miss team that had started 7-0 and shocked Alabama was dismantled by an unranked Arkansas team, 30-0, on a cold, rain-drenched October afternoon in Fayetteville. I will forever remember it as the most miserable sports event I’ve ever attended. 2016 After 10 fourth-quarter points gave Ole Miss its first lead of the game, the Hogs embarked on a 10-play touchdown drive, taking the lead with 2:20 left on the board. Facing an all-or-nothing fourth-and-16, Chad Kelly’s desperation scamper came up one-yard shy of the first down. Of course, nothing encapsulates the batshit insanity of this series like Fourth-and-Twenty-Five. Anyone who’s ever attempted to bounce a football straight up in the air knows its not an easy thing to do. Taking its original oblong form from the inflated pig livers it was once made of, the ball gradually slimmed over the decades, reshaped by the rise of the forward pass into what’s technically referred to as a prolate spheroid. The perfect agent of chaos.<doc-sep>Well, it happened again. Arkansas blew a lead and lost a game. This one, though, feels a little different. This feels like the kind of game that will be a little-known trivia question years from now: “Remember that time Ole Miss knocked our starting quarterback and top two running backs out of the game and we almost beat them anyway?” The Hogs lost Rakeem Boyd (7 rushes, 109 yards, TD, 36-yard reception) early in the second quarter, Devwah Whaley (12 rushes, 67 yards) early in the third quarter, and Ty Storey (12 of 16, 122 yards, TD, 7 rushes, 73 yards) early in the fourth quarter. You can talk “next man up” all you want, but Arkansas cannot replace those three, especially all in the same game. The Hogs have survived without Whaley for the last two, and almost certainly would have survived this game without Boyd, if Boyd was the only one who got hurt. By the game’s end, Arkansas simply did not have the offensive production to run out the clock, and defense was forced into a situation in which it was clearly overmatched. “But Arkansas got too conservative late in the game!” Disagree. The Hogs threw on first down with four minutes left, and then threw on third down before punting instead of trying to run more clock. It’s easier to see this with other fanbases, but all fans have a tendency to call a run that gains six yards a great call, and a run that gains two yards a conservative call, even if it’s the same play. Complain about playcalling all you want, but when Chase Hayden is taking the handoff from Cole Kelley (instead of Boyd taking the handoff from Storey), there’s only so much you can do. “But why didn’t the coaches have a backup plan in case the three most important players got hurt?” Really? “The real problem was the defense’s late-game collapse!” I’d say yes and no. Yes, the 97-yard touchdown drive at the end was way too easy, and yes, I have some thoughts about the defense, but looking at the overall numbers, the last few minutes were actually just a violent regression to the mean. Arkansas held Ole Miss to the same number of points it scored last season (37), when its offense was worse. If I would have told you before kickoff that Ole Miss would score 37, you’d probably take it. Again, Arkansas lost this game because its offense was on track to score in the mid-40s or 50s until its most important players started dropping like flies. A few observations: Good passing games have exposed this defense. Colorado State, North Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss are the four pass-first teams Arkansas has faced this year, and all three torched the Hogs. Any team that tries to run the ball on Arkansas is in for a long night, because the Hogs can take away the run and make the Kellen Monds and Jarrett Stidhams of the world look bad. The good news for Arkansas is that Missouri is the only team left on the schedule with a pass-first identity. Next week’s opponent, Tulsa, has one of the worst passing games in the country. Colorado State, North Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss are the four pass-first teams Arkansas has faced this year, and all three torched the Hogs. Any team that tries to run the ball on Arkansas is in for a long night, because the Hogs can take away the run and make the Kellen Monds and Jarrett Stidhams of the world look bad. The good news for Arkansas is that Missouri is the only team left on the schedule with a pass-first identity. Next week’s opponent, Tulsa, has one of the worst passing games in the country. Chavis stuck with four-down linemen. The current trend in college football is defending pass-first spread offenses with three down linemen who all line up inside the tackles. It’s called a “Tite” front and it allows a defense to get six defensive backs on the field while still taking care of the straight-ahead run game. Georgia and Texas are among the many teams who use it frequently, and it’s actually Iowa State’s base defense. While Arkansas was surrendering 600 yards to Ole Miss, the Cyclones were busy holding 6th-ranked West Virginia to just 145 yards of total offense in a dominant win. Iowa State has become the Air Raid’s worst nightmare (wins over Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia in the last two seasons) with significantly less recruitable talent than Arkansas. Meanwhile, Arkansas left four down linemen on the field for the entire game, even when it was clear that it wasn’t working. Unless you can get overwhelming pressure with your front four, an extra defensive tackle isn’t helping as much as a sixth defensive back would. What’s odd is that Chavis was famous at Tennessee and LSU for his 3-2-6 dime package, called “Mustang”. Either he hasn’t installed in Fayetteville or he doesn’t think he has the personnel to run it yet. It’d be real nice if an Arkansas media member would ask him during media availabilities this week. The current trend in college football is defending pass-first spread offenses with three down linemen who all line up inside the tackles. It’s called a “Tite” front and it allows a defense to get six defensive backs on the field while still taking care of the straight-ahead run game. Georgia and Texas are among the many teams who use it frequently, and it’s actually Iowa State’s base defense. While Arkansas was surrendering 600 yards to Ole Miss, the Cyclones were busy holding 6th-ranked West Virginia to just 145 yards of total offense in a dominant win. Iowa State has become the Air Raid’s worst nightmare (wins over Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia in the last two seasons) with significantly less recruitable talent than Arkansas. Meanwhile, Arkansas left four down linemen on the field for the entire game, even when it was clear that it wasn’t working.<doc-sep>You gotta hand it to the Rebels, they didn’t give up when things looked bleak in Little Rock. Despite facing a second-half deficit — the Rebels were down 30-17 in the second half and 33-24 late in the fourth, Ole Miss fought all the way back and shocked the Arkansas faithful from War Memorial Stadium Saturday night, coming away with a 37-33 win. Matt Luke gets his first SEC win of the season in three attempts and does so by ripping the hearts out of Arkansas fans everywhere. As has been the case all season, Phil Longo’s offense bailed the Rebels out when Wesley McGriff’s unit was largely non-existent in this game — outside of one crucial stop in the fourth quarter when the team needed it the most. It’s pretty remarkable to win a game when your opponent doesn’t punt until the fourth quarterback but that’s what Ole Miss managed to do in Little Rock. Of course, that stop would not have meant anything if Jordan Ta’amu didn’t engineer a 97-yard game-winning touchdown drive in the closing moments in the game. The drive was capped by Scottie Phillips on a five-yard run. Ole Miss’ outstanding senior quarterback not only did his typical damage thru the air — he completed 26 of 35 passes for 387 yards and two touchdowns — but he was the Rebels’ leading rusher in the game. Ta’amu finished the game with 141 yards on the ground and another score. The Rebels finished the game with 613 yards of total offense, 387 passing and 226 rushing. But if Ole Miss is going to build off this win, the defense has got to get things figured out in a hurry. In fact, the Razorbacks scored on all five first-half possessions in this game. Here’s how the drive chart went for Arkansas in the first half: field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. That was good enough to give Arkansas a 27-17 lead at the break and the second half was more of the same. The scoring drive extended to the second half as the Razorbacks scored field goals on the first two drives of the second half. It was Arkansas’ running game that led the way for the team in this game, as the Hogs rushed for 289 yards on the Ole Miss defense. First-year player Rakeem Boyd continues to flash for the team, as he busted a 69-yard touchdown drive during the first half and finished the game with 109 yards on only seven carries. The only bad news was Boyd left the game due to injury and did not return to the field in the second half. He did make an appearance on the sideline but did not have his pads on following the break. We will never know if his absence altered the final result from Little Rock, but the Arkansas offense did seem to hit a wall once Boyd left the game. Ty Storey had his most efficient game as a Razorback, going 12 of 16 for 122 yards and a score. He also added 70 yards on nine rushing attempts. Unfortunately, he too got banged up at various points in the contest. The good and bad that is Cole Kelley then resurfaced for the Razorbacks. Kelley came off the bench and immediately threw a 39-yard touchdown pass on his first attempt but also threw the interception that sealed Arkansas’ fate in this game. Kelley finished the game two of five for 60 yards with the one touchdown and one interception. Looking ahead to Week 8, Ole Miss hosts Auburn next weekend while Arkansas hosts Tulsa in Fayetteville.<doc-sep>Saturday marks the biggest game of the Chad Morris era so far. It’s the first SEC game where the Hogs are widely viewed as having a good chance to win. Former coach Bret Bielema was fired because he mostly seemed lose these kinds of games (well, not specifically the Ole Miss game...). We’ll see if Morris can get his team ready to play. The Rebs (4-2, 0-2 SEC) come into Little Rock with the second-best offense in the SEC and the worst defense. They’ve played six games this season, all blowouts. Their lone impressive win was the opener, a 47-27 pasting of Texas Tech on a neutral field. Since then they’ve destroyed very weak teams — 76-41 over Southern Illinois, 70-21 over UL-Monroe, and 38-17 over Kent State — and looked utterly invincible on offense. In between those games was a 62-7 loss to Alabama and a 45-16 loss to LSU in which the offense was virtually non-existent. Consider: Jordan Ta’amu in 2 losses: 26 of 60, 311 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions in 2 losses: 26 of 60, 311 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions Jordan Ta’amu in 4 wins: 94 of 127, 1,600 yards, 12 touchdowns, 1 interception It’s safe to say the Rebels will either light up your defense or fade quickly. Given the quality of Arkansas’ defense, it seems unlikely that the Hogs can hold Ole Miss under about 30, although stranger things have happened. The real question will be if the Hogs’ offense is ready for a shootout. Meet the new numbers Bill Connelly and the SB Nation team have rolled out some new stat groupings that will help break down the game. Here’s a very brief overview. They’re called “Bill Walsh stats,” after the famous NFL coach who broke the game up into five parts: Open Play . These are standard downs between the 20’s. In average game, about half of all plays will be open play. For this reason, major disadvantages here can be difficult to overcome. Stats in this category will measure big play ability and early-downs success rate. . These are standard downs between the 20’s. In average game, about half of all plays will be open play. For this reason, major disadvantages here can be difficult to overcome. Stats in this category will measure big play ability and early-downs success rate. Blitz Downs . Downs where the offense can expect a blitz, like third-and-long. Explosiveness is irrelevant here: all we care about is success rate and sack rate. . Downs where the offense can expect a blitz, like third-and-long. Explosiveness is irrelevant here: all we care about is success rate and sack rate. Third Downs . There’s some overlap with blitz downs, but Third Downs includes third-and-short situations as well. Success rate is king. . There’s some overlap with blitz downs, but Third Downs includes third-and-short situations as well. Success rate is king. Backed-Up Offense . What do you do when you’re backed up inside your own 10? Turnover rate is the top stat here. . What do you do when you’re backed up inside your own 10? Turnover rate is the top stat here. Red Zone. Can you score once you get inside the 20? The 10? At the goal line? Success rate and turnover rate are the biggest stats. For simplification purposes, I’m reducing these five into three categories: Open Play, Passing Situations (Blitz Downs and Third Downs), and Dangerous Situations (Backed-Up and Red Zone). We’ll walk through the numbers as the preview continues. When Arkansas has the ball First, if you haven’t, check out my review of how Arkansas jump-started its stagnant offense against Alabama. So we’re left with an improving Hog offense against a weak Ole Miss defense. How will things shake out? Arkansas’ biggest weaknesses have been field position and turnovers. Turnovers have to get fixed, and field position is partially a factor of not trying to return kickoffs and punts. Ole Miss’ defense is very bad in open field but usually manages to stiffen when it gets backed up. Forcing turnovers are the Rebels’ specialty. On paper, the Hogs should have a field day with short runs. Ole Miss is very bad at preventing efficient runs (4 yards in most cases, 123rd), preventing opportunity runs (6 yards, 116th), and hitting the back in the backfield (103rd). Running Backs Devwah Whaley , 231 yards, 4.4 average, 2.85 bonus yards/opportunity, +3.5% marginal efficiency , 231 yards, 4.4 average, 2.85 bonus yards/opportunity, +3.5% marginal efficiency Rakeem Boyd , 294 yards, 6.4 average, 9.17 bonus yards/opportunity, -5.0% marginal efficiency Let’s start with Whaley, who is back after missing the last two games with a concussion. He leads the team in marginal efficiency (basically, success rate vs. average, positive is good), but is the least-explosive back. Basically, he’s nearly a guarantee to get 3 or 4 yards on every carry, but he’s also nearly a guarantee to not get much more than that. If the passing game is being forced to dink-to-dunk due to struggles with the deep game, Whaley’s lack of explosiveness will make it hard to keep drives alive. Boyd is a boom-or-bust back. About half of his carries go for no gain, but he’s cranked out runs of 45, 32, and 31 this year — with the latter two coming against Alabama. His 6.4 yards per carry is even more impressive when you consider that 33 of his 46 carries have come against Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M, three of the best defenses in all of college football. Expect him to get the majority of carries against Ole Miss, but Whaley definitely has a role. Ole Miss struggles to get to the quarterback and gives up too many big plays in the passing game. The Hogs need to improve completion percentage. Quarterback Ty Storey , 54.8% completion, 861 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 interception, -1.6% marginal efficiency Receivers La’Michael Pettway, 31 targets, 200 yards, 3 touchdowns, -0.8% marginal efficiency Jordan Jones , 21 targets, 168 yards, 1 touchdown, +3.4% marginal efficiency<doc-sep>
Little more than bragging rights on the recruiting trail will be at stake on Saturday when the Ole Miss Rebels (4–2, 0–2 in the SEC) head three-and-a-half hours northwest to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (1–5, 0–3) in Little Rock. The winner gets the dubious honor of getting out of the SEC West cellar. When the Rebels have taken the field against unranked teams this season, they have looked like world beaters, scoring an average of 58 points per game. When called onto the field to play conference foes, the Rebels’ offense has wilted under the pressure tallying 23 total points in games against No. 1 Alabama and then-No. 5 LSU. Ole Miss heads to Arkansas on a high note after getting a confidence-boosting 70–21 win last week against Louisiana-Monroe while rolling up 826 yards of total offense. Since the second half of the non-conference road loss against Colorado State (34–27) in Week 2, just about everything that could go wrong for Arkansas on the field has gone wrong. Sloppy play on special teams, multiple untimely turnovers, and confusion on offense have the Hogs mired in the middle of a five-game losing streak. But there have been signs of improvement on offense in back-to-back losses against Texas A&M and Alabama; can that improvement continue against the Rebels enough for a win? Ole Miss vs. Arkansas (Little Rock, Ark.) Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 13 at 7:30 p.m. ET Where: War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock, Ark.) TV: SEC Network Spread: Ole Miss -6.5 Three Things to Watch 1. Arkansas’ improving offense Statistically, Arkansas is one of the worst in the nation at moving the ball, ranked 102nd out of 129 FBS programs and averaging 359 total yards per game. But before Ole Miss fans start dismissing the Hogs’ offense, Arkansas picked up 405 total yards of offense against Alabama last week, while the Rebels were held to 248 total yards against the same opponent. The Razorbacks turned the ball over three times against the Crimson Tide, fumbling twice and throwing one interception, but they are finally moving the ball behind running back Rakeem Boyd and quarterback Ty Storey. The Rebels are porous at best on defense, ranked 123rd in the nation giving up 504 yards per game. 2. Jordan Ta’amu vs. Arkansas' pass defense When senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is on, he is one of the best in the nation. As a team, the Rebels have the fifth best aerial attack in the country throwing for 348 yards per game. The hole in Arkansas’ defense resides in the secondary, which is good news for Ole Miss. While Arkansas is strong against the run, they cannot stop opposing passing attacks giving way for an average of 271 yards each time out. Arkansas’ secondary will have trouble slowing down Mississippi receivers A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and DaMarkus Lodge, if possible. 3. Getting off the field If quick strike one- or two-play drives are not on display, which defense will be able to get off the field giving their offense a chance to score? Of the two, Arkansas is better at shutting down the opposition on third down with a 33 percent conversion rate. Ole Miss is far friendlier allowing a conversion 41 percent of the time. If the Razorbacks are to sustain drives and keep the Rebels off the field, they will have to commit to the run, something first-year offensive coordinator Joe Craddock has yet to accept. Boyd rushed for 102 yards off 15 carries against Alabama but the emphasis has been on the passing game where Storey threw 39 times for 230 yards. Teams have averaged 196 yards per game on the ground against Ole Miss. Final Analysis Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke and Arkansas head coach Chad Morris both need this win. Mississippi has no “easy wins” left on the schedule to get to the bowl berth plateau of six victories staring down Auburn, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. Mathematically, Arkansas can still make a bowl game but it seems unlikely. If Morris can pull off the win, Arkansas might stay out of the cellar in 2018 while giving the team a morale boosting conference victory. If Arkansas cannot put pressure on Ta’amu and move him off his spot, this will be a long game for the Hogs.