The How to Watch Essentials Date: Sunday, 3/24/19 Tip-Off Time: 11:40 am PT (could start later if previous game runs late) TV: CBS Streaming: March Madness Live Radio: KOMO 1000 AM/97.7 FM and TuneIn (only in WA and AK) Location: Columbus, Ohio Betting Line: Washington +11.5 North Carolina 2018-19 Statistics Record: 28-6 (16-2) Points For per Game: 86.1 (3rd) Points Against per Game: 72.9 (199th) Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.7 (7th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 91.3 (11th) Strength of Schedule: +12.58 (9th) North Carolina Key Players F- Garrison Brooks, So. 6’9, 230: 8.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 57.4% FG, 62.3% FT Brooks is the closest thing to a true post player that UNC has in their 9-man rotation. Only about 10% of his shots come from outside the paint but he’ll occasionally attempt a midrange jumper. He’s not much of a rim protector but is an excellent offensive rebounder and could easily end up with a handful of putbacks. F- Luke Maye, Sr. 6’8, 240: 14.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.4 apg, 43.3% FG, 29.3% 3pt, 76.8% FT Maye was a preseason AP All-American and mostly lived up to the hype averaging a double double although his 3-pt shooting fell off a cliff. Unfortunately, he’s the theoretical nightmare matchup for the zone with his ability to shoot out of the high post. He’s also one of the best defensive rebounders in the country. The one weakness to Maye’s game is on the defensive end where he doesn’t have the foot speed or athleticism to put up much resistance. F- Cameron Johnson, Sr. 6’9, 210: 16.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 50.9% FG, 46.5% 3pt, 80.4% FT The former Pitt transfer ended up 1st-team All-ACC and was one of the most efficient shooters in the country at 6’9. He shot at least an average percentage from every zone on the floor except on baseline jumpers. Johnson also grades out as a well above average defender per Synergy Sports especially against the pick and roll. G- Kenny Williams, Sr. 6’4, 185: 8.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, 39.4% FG, 29% 3pt, 80.6% FT Williams is by far the most limited offensive player among UNC’s rotation but is capable of finishing at the rim when he gets there. He usually gets the match-up on the opponent’s best wing scorer so expect to see plenty of him on Jaylen Nowell. He is in the 96th percentile guarding in isolation situations but he can have trouble getting around screens. G- Coby White, Fr. 6’5, 185: 16.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.2 apg, 43% FG, 36.2% 3pt, 81.4% FT Coby White is the best freshman point guard in the country and is the biggest reason why UNC has survived the graduation of Joel Berry. The overall shooting percentages aren’t terribly efficient but White is an elite shot maker and when he gets hot the Tar Heels are completely unstoppable. He shoots 50% on unguarded 3’s and you can be sure the Washington defense will make shutting down White their top priority. North Carolina 2018/19 Shot Chart The Outlook 8 years and 4 days ago the Huskies played North Carolina in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament. It was essentially a road game in Charlotte, North Carolina and came down to the last few seconds. Washington is hoping for a different result this time around but they certainly have their work cut out for them. Utah State was one of the hottest teams in the country and on paper a bad matchup for the Huskies. But the saving grace for Washington was that the level of length and athleticism that the Dawgs displayed was clearly a level above what Utah State had faced. That won’t be a problem for North Carolina who otherwise shares those same traits with the Aggies. UNC has won 16 of their last 18 games with the only losses during that time coming against fellow #1 seeds. Washington and North Carolina played four common opponents and the Tar Heels beat each of those teams by double digits including the other #1 seed Gonzaga. They’ve also played against this 2-3 zone once already this year when they hosted Syracuse and scored 95 points against them. The Orange actually did a decent job in the half court against North Carolina as the Tar Heels shot just 33% and settled for 26 3-pointers. The problem was that UNC often avoided the half court set by racing in transition. North Carolina scored a ridiculous 22 points in transition on just 10 possessions which made it impossible for Syracuse to keep pace. Expect UNC to run out on every make and every miss to try to beat the UW defense down the floor before they’re set. North Carolina plays at the 5th fastest pace in the country and are 11th in the percentage of their field goals assisted on offense. They move the ball at a frenetic pace until someone has a sliver of daylight and then will fire up the first available shot. That strategy works when you get an offensive rebound on 35% of misses and also have a very talented group of shot makers. You can expect UNC to take a lot of “bad shots” which either go in or lead to a put back and the Huskies can’t get discouraged when that happens. You might look at North Carolina’s raw defensive totals and think they are terrible at that end of the floor but it’s mostly due to their pace plus their brutal schedule. Utah State and North Carolina are similar teams in a lot of their statistics but obviously the Tar Heels played a top-10 schedule and Utah State played a barely top-150 schedule. One of those similarities is that they’re an elite defensive rebounding team. As one of the tallest 20 teams in the country they may give up points on a first look but you’re rarely getting a second. Noah Dickerson was able to still get offensive rebounds against Utah State but it will tougher against UNC. There isn’t really a zone on the floor where North Carolina makes their hay on defense. They’re average to slightly above average in essentially every zone on the court per Synergy Sports. With their high level athletes they excel guarding in transition or in isolation but good offense can confuse them. North Carolina ranks in just the 2nd percentile nationally against cuts to the basket so if Washington is able to keep the ball moving then UNC will get antsy and lose focus. The Huskies have shown that if they play a perfect game then they can win this game. It took until the final shot for Gonzaga to put the Dawgs away in Spokane in one of the few games more difficult than this one. This sounds like terrible analysis but ultimately this game will come down to making shots (shout out to Mark Titus). Washington can’t win this game unless it makes baskets that it doesn’t always make. The Huskies shot 59% from 3-pt range and 86% from the free throw line against Utah State. They’ll need to once again surpass their season averages by quite a bit to keep pace. North Carolina will take a bunch of tough shots and the Husky defense will need to make them just uncomfortable enough to make them miss. If Coby White is hitting off the bounce 28-footers then there’s nothing Washington can do. Depending on what advanced statistic you look at the Huskies have somewhere between a 10-20% chance of winning this game. That sounds about right. If this was a best of 7 series then Washington would probably win no more than 1 game. But this isn’t a 7-game series. It’s best of 1. And anything can happen in that environment. Especially for this Washington team which seems to play better as an underdawg than as a front runner. Prediction Washington Huskies- 74, North Carolina Tar Heels- 82 *** You can follow me @UWDP_maxvroom for all your UW Men’s Basketball News and Notes<doc-sep>COLUMBUS, Ohio — Asked why they believe so much in Washington coach Mike Hopkins, senior guard David Crisp and senior forward Noah Dickerson delivered the same answer: “He’s crazy.” Apparently, being “crazy” is a good thing. It has apparently worked for Hopkins, who in his second season as head coach has led the Huskies to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. Ninth-seeded Washington (27-8) will take on No. 1 seed North Carolina (28-6) Sunday at Nationwide Arena in a Midwest Region game. The winner advances to the Sweet 16. To be clear, Crisp and Dickerson said Hopkins is “a good crazy” — the kind of crazy that has made his players believe in his systems, his methods and his game plans. The kind of crazy that keeps players engaged and wanting to succeed for each other and their school — the kind of crazy that led to a Pac-12 regular-season championship two years after a nine-win season. How crazy is Hopkins, who admits he’s “49 going on 14”? There was the time he dropped down during a press conference and did push-ups; and the time he had the whole team sign a baseball bat to show their commitment; and the time he interrupted his first press conference as the new coach to run down the arena steps and on to the court to bear hug Crisp for deciding to remain at the school; and the time he broke his nose competing with his players during one of the team’s first workout. “His energy is contagious,” Dickerson said. “We feed off that on the court. One second he’s going crazy and the next second he’s the calmest person in the room. With him you just never know. You’ve got to be ready for anything and that’s one of our mottos on the team.” Some folks in the Pacific Northwest have called him the Pete Carroll of college basketball and that’s OK with Hopkins, the former Syracuse player and longtime assistant coach. “I’m just pretty passionate,” Hopkins said Saturday. “I just love life and being around my kids. I like to interact. I like to be involved. It’s my assistant coach in me that I love. I love the interaction with the kids and being out there sweating with them.” It’s probably a good thing Washington decided to make sure Hopkins would remain the Huskies basketball coach into the next decade. The new six-year, $17.5 million contract they agreed to before the start of the NCAA Tournament might have commanded a higher price tag by the time it’s over. While players can improve their draft stock by playing well in the NCAA Tournament, coaches also can raise their profiles. Hopkins has a chance to do just that by upsetting the highly favored Tar Heels. “The greatest thing that makes this tournament great is you have a chance to win a national championship,” Hopkins said. “It doesn’t matter if you’re a 16; doesn’t matter if you’re a 15; doesn’t matter if you’re a 14. You have a chance to win a national championship. I know our standard is going to be that’s what we fight for.” After spending most of his basketball life as a player and assistant coach at Syracuse, Hopkins is accustomed to being in the NCAA Tournament. He helped the Orange reach the Big Dance 16 times, four Final Fours and the national championship in 2003. He took the Washington job after the 2017 season in part to be closer to his family roots after spending part of his childhood in the Pacific Northwest. He wasted no time turning the Washington program into a winner, going 21-13 and earning a NIT berth in his first season; and followed that with a 26-8 record and the Pac-12 regular-season championship this year. Hopkins has been named the Pac-12 coach of the year both seasons. The Huskies employ a similar zone defense that Hopkins learned at Syracuse, something the Tar Heels see at least twice a season when they play the Orange. The plan is to contain Carolina’s 3-point shooting and keep the Tar Heels off the offensive glass. Hopkins calls the matchup “a dream come true,” something that will benefit his program win or lose. “To have the opportunity to play against the best of the best,” he said. “What’s better than that in March Madness?”<doc-sep>
It’s nice to see that after the worst half of basketball the Tar Heels had played in a while, they were able to quickly recover and erase all doubts in their NCAA Tournament opener versus the Iona Gaels. That game is done and behind you, and there really isn't a lot of time to sulk about how much closer the game ended up being than it should have been, as we've got a quick turnaround. Tomorrow, Carolina’s NCAA Tournament continues with a second round matchup against the Washington Huskies. Washington is the Midwest's nine seed after winning the Pac-12 regular season. That should tell you something about them and the league. That said, they won a game against a favored and hot Utah State to make it. So what can we expect against Washington? Zone, Zone, and more Zone If you read Jake’s preview of the region’s seeds, you’ll know by now that Washington is coached by former Jim Boeheim lead assistant Mike Hopkins. You don’t get that job unless you’ve bought into the preferred defensive style of Boeheim, and Hopkins did indeed bring the zone to the Pacific Northwest. To see how Carolina will handle Washington, it would probably be more instructive to look at the Syracuse game rather than the Iona game. Yes, Iona played a zone that seemed to catch the Tar Heels off guard in the first half on Friday, but due to their lack of size it was more of a 3-2 or instead of a 2-3 or 1-2-2, which Washington also employed against USU. The goal of Iona's zone was to deny entry inside and force Carolina to take contested outside shots. Carolina waited until the second half to realize they had plenty of room to operate inside if they could just get the ball there. Washington plays a more traditional 2-3, hence why the Heels' Syracuse game is a better comparison. The Orange managed to get out to a 46-43 lead at the half in the February 26th game, but Carolina turned it around in the second half. The Orange started to wear out and the Tar Heels eventually won 93-85. Coby White was a monster, going for 34, and Nassir Little used the space from the zone to grab 11 for himself. That familiarity with that style should serve Carolina well, but don’t expect a rout. UNC's last few games against Syracuse have not been easy and Washington likely will control tempo. Garrison Brooks and Nassir Little These two get their own category because both were huge in Carolina’s win Friday, and with the way Washington will pack it in with the zone, they have a chance to match that effort. Washington is not tall. They have three guys in their regular eight man rotation that are over 6’8”, and their tallest player, junior Sam Tillins, is 6’ 11” but only plays about 10 minutes a game. Nassir Little seemed to be the only guy playing on offense for the Tar Heels at times, scoring 19 points in 17 minutes, and his determination to get to the basket when no one else would helped keep Carolina in the game in the first half. In the second, he had a couple of power jams that seemed to suck the life out of Iona. Brooks, meanwhile, scored 10 points after having some trouble hitting easier shots in the first half, and grabbed eight rebounds. When Luke Maye picked up his third foul in the second, he and Little were out on the floor together for a while and the team didn’t seem to miss a beat. Add that to the fact that Washington is absolutely horrid in rebounding their misses - they're 343rd ranked KenPom Offensive Rebounding percentage - the skill that both have at getting to the ball after teammates' misses should be on full display. The confidence that both should be able to get from their performance against Iona should help them against the Huskies, and don’t be surprised if Coach Roy Williams deploys this tandem more. Iona was set up well for both to show up, and the Huskies shouldn’t be much different. 3 Point Shooting The other aspect when beating a zone is hitting a ball behind the arc. The reason is simple: there are only two guys at the top of the defense, which gives a team more room to operate up there than they'd have against man.