Did you miss any of the Week 1 NFL games? Fear not: Below is a gambling recap of every game, including the team that covered and if the game went over or under the total in Las Vegas. Closing odds used from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.<doc-sep>With Tom Brady having turned 41 last month, the N.F.L. still has its face of the present, but it should be on the lookout for its face of the future. Could Deshaun Watson, the second-year quarterback for the Houston Texans, whom Brady and the New England Patriots just happen to be facing this week, be his successor? What about Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers, who last season got out from under Brady’s considerable shadow? There’s always Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles, though he has to make it back from a devastating knee injury first. [Follow our live coverage of N.F.L. Week 1] Khalil Mack of the Chicago Bears, Jalen Ramsey of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Odell Beckham Jr. of the Giants are probably wondering why the face of the N.F.L. needs to be a quarterback. Each has the talent and personality to make an argument for himself. [The N.F.L. Struggles to Tackle Its Latest Problem: Tackling] Week 1 brings a fresh start for everyone — even the Cleveland Browns. A look ahead to this week’s games shows several intriguing matchups. As it did last season, The New York Times will be picking games against the spread rather than simply picking winners. Top-Tier Games Texans at Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS At times last season, it seemed Deshaun Watson, the Texans’ rookie quarterback, could do anything he wanted on a football field. In a four-game stretch, he threw for 1,171 yards and 16 touchdowns while Houston’s offense averaged 40.5 points a game. It resulted in only a 2-2 record, but both losses were competitive, and the second one, a shootout against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, was easily one of the N.F.L.’s most entertaining games of the year.<doc-sep>The offseason is officially over. After 213 days between meaningful games, football is finally back and the fun starts with Thursday night's season-opening matchup between the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and the NFC Super Bowl representative in 2016, the Falcons. It's Week 1, so every fanbase has hope and every game has interesting storylines, from the "Hard Knocks" Browns possibly being something other than terrible to the return of Deshaun Watson in Houston, Andrew Luck in Indianapolis and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, to the new faces under center for the Chiefs and Jets. Alright, let's get to our Week 1 picks. Atlanta at Philadelphia Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) The Eagles may be without Carson Wentz, a legit contender for MVP honors last season until he suffered an ACL injury in December, but they can trot out Nick Foles, Super Bowl MVP in his place. Up until as recently as a month ago, that was as solid a Plan B as you'll see in the NFL but if we learned anything in the preseason it's that Foles is more replacement-level backup than franchise quarterback. The Eagles are hoping those struggles are more about knocking the rust off after a long offseason than indicative of bigger problems. The Falcons may have finished third in the NFC South last season but they still won 10 games and made the playoffs. They're also entering Year 2 with Steve Sarksian as the offensive coordinator, and quarterback Matt Ryan has another big-play weapon in first-round pick Calvin Ridley, who joins Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Pick: Falcons 20, Eagles 17 Buffalo at Baltimore 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Last season the Bills broke a 19-year drought and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. This season will reset the playoff clock for many of the same reasons the team was mired in mediocrity between 1999-2016: Huge questions at quarterbacks. Buffalo shipped Tyrod Taylor to the Browns in the offseason; traded AJ McCarron to the Raiders last week, months after signing him; have decided to keep rookie first-rounder Josh Allen safely on the bench, at least for the brutal stretch of games to open the season; and will roll with 2017 fifth-rounder Nathan Peterman, the same poor soul who tossed five interceptions in 30 minutes of football in his first NFL start against the Chargers in Week 11 last season. The Ravens, meanwhile, are hoping the Joe Flacco Revitalization Project continues into the regular season after a strong preseason, aided by the additions of wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and first-rounders, quarterback Lamar Jackson and tight end Hayden Hurst. Hurst will be sidelined with an injury to start the season but the Ravens won't need him against a punchless Bills offense that is worse in every way from the same unit that made it to the postseason a season ago. May God have mercy on Peterman's soul against this Ravens defense. Pick: Ravens 17, Bills 6 Pittsburgh at Cleveland 1 p.m. ET (CBS) We've been beating this drum for a few months now -- most recently on Monday night's Pick Six Podcast -- but what looks like a blowout on paper may be something else entirely on Sunday afternoon. In the last four years, the Steelers and Browns have played twice in Week 1; both times -- in 2014 and 2018 -- the Steelers were heavily favored (by seven and 10 points), and both times eked out a 3-point win. In the '14 game, they needed overtime to do it and in '17 they started strong before letting then-rookie DeShone Kizer lead Cleveland on a late rally. Pittsburgh should win but If nothing else, be wary of the 5.5-point spread. Then again, these are the Browns. And while "Hard Knocks" was the perfect month-long pep rally for a downtrodden fanbase, this is still Hue Jackson's team, the very same one that is 1-31 since he took over in 2016. The Steelers are coming off a 13-3 mark that included a division title, and their biggest questions concern running back Le'Veon Bell's readiness for the opener after another holdout, and how this revamped defense will respond without linebacker Ryan Shazier. Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 21 Cincinnati at Indianapolis 1 p.m. ET (CBS) The Bengals spent the offseason upgrading an offensive line that had Andy Dalton grading out worse than Eli Manning in 2017 after ranking among the top-10 passers the season before. Joe Mixon could end the season as one of the league's best backs, and if 2017 first-round pick John Ross can step into the No. 2 job opposite A.J. Green, this offense could be among the most balanced in the AFC. In Indy, we have no idea what to expect from Andrew Luck, mostly because we haven't seen him play since the '16 season. The fact that he made it through the preseason in one piece is fantastic news, but questions loom about if he'll ever return to his pre-shoulder-injury form. He looked more like Chad Pennington over the last few weeks, and while you can certainly win like that (Chad Pennington did it), can Luck adjust to playing that way? Pick: Bengals 28, Colts 21 Tennessee at Miami 1 p.m. ET (Fox) We continue to be disappointed by Marcus Mariota, an unbelievable talent who hasn't come close to living up to expectations. Part of that my be due to lingering injuries, which resulted in an inconsistent and ultimately disappointing 2017 campaign. But Mariota is healthy heading into '18 and his preseason raised many of the same questions that had critics clamoring for much of his career. Perhaps new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who is from the Sean McVay coaching tree, can coax the best out of Mariota but so far we haven't seen it. The Dolphins are a lot of folks' favorites to finish behind the Patriots and Jets in the AFC East but maybe this is the year things click for Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase. To be fair, Tannehill showed glimpses of putting it together in 2016 and then the ACL injury derailed his '17 campaign. Pick: Dolphins 24, Titans 16 San Francisco at Minnesota 1 p.m. ET (Fox) The 49ers are everyone's darkhorse playoff favorites but this is also the same outfit that went 6-10 in Kyle Shanahan's first season. Of course, the counter-argument is that San Francisco reeled off five straight wins to end the season, which just so happened to coincide with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over the starting job. The Vikings, who made it to the NFC Championship Game with Case Keenum's MVP-level season, decided to replace him with Kirk Cousins. The offense is stacked at the skill position though questions about the offensive line remain. This is also one of the league's best defenses and there's little reason to think Minnesota won't again find themselves in the playoffs in four months' time. Pick: Vikings 28, 49ers 17 Houston at New England 1 p.m. ET (CBS) We LOVE the Texans this season, mostly because Deshaun Watson is healthy. He was Rookie of the Year before a November ACL injury ended his '17 campaign. Also healthy: J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to bolster what should be a much-improved defense. Houston's offensive line is among the big questions, but if that gets sorted, this team can win the AFC South and make a deep playoff run. None of this matters in Week 1 because the Texans will face the Patriots in Gillette Stadium. And while New England may not be hitting on all cylinders in the very first game of the season, they'll still have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the two names that have virtually guaranteed victory every week this century. Pick: Patriots 31, Texans 24 Tampa Bay at New Orleans 1 p.m. ET (Fox) The Bucs are without Jameis Winston, questions remain about the running game and the defense ranked dead last in rushing the passer last season. The Saints, meanwhile, are primed for a Super Bowl run. The defense was stifling in 2017 and they've added pass rusher Marcus Davenport to the mix.<doc-sep>
The NFL season is finally here, which is excellent news for all of us because not only do we get to watch football, but we get to make money while doing so. While it's never easy to win regularly betting on NFL games, it's a bit more difficult in Week One when we don't have a clear picture of what teams will look like, but even so, I have four picks for you that should prove to be winners. We'll start in New England. Time comes for us all, and at some point, it's going to come for Tom Brady. I don't think the first week of the season will be when it happens, though. This line is smaller than it should be, and you should take advantage of it. Brady has been a profitable quarterback to bet on his entire career, and this is a juicy spot. Since the 2009 season, Tom Brady and the Patriots have been favored by seven points or fewer at home 34 times. They are 24-7-3 ATS in those 34 games. Patriots 27, Texans 17 A part of me worries that this is a square play, but it just makes far too much sense. Buffalo's offense was awful last season, and with Nathan Peterman starting, I don't see a scenario in which it's any better this season. Maybe you're more comfortable taking the Ravens -7.5, but that hook is a problem. I'm far more confident in the Under. Ravens 20, Bills 13 The Sunday primetime game features two longtime rivals, though it hasn't been much of a rivalry over the last 20 years. First Brett Favre destroyed the hopes of Bears fans, and now it's Aaron Rodgers. While there's a part of me worried that Rodgers decides to show off for the national audience, the Bears were a top 10 defense last season and they just added Khalil Mack. Expect defense to win out Sunday night. Packers 27, Bears 17 Bonus Pick New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Another game between division rivals to start the season. The Saints are 9.5-point favorites and the total is set at 49.5. If you'd like to see my pick for this game -- and plenty of others -- head on over to my Sportsline page.