Last week I forced the Falcons on Thursday night and this week I wanted to force the Ravens against the Bengals. Maybe I'll learn my lesson about betting against home teams on Thursday night by some time next century. At any rate, this is a weird week, because we're trying to steer clear of Week 1 overreactions. What we saw in the first week is not often reality -- the Buccaneers blasted the Saints and the Steelers tied the Browns, while the Chiefs manhandled the Chargers. The results are not necessarily going to simply be the same. In fact, most of them will be different. Football is fickle! Anyway, holler at me on Twitter @WillBrinson if you love or hate these and let's stay warm after a nice Week 1 outing that saw us go 4-1. All lines are locked on Wednesday for the SuperContest. If you want more NFL analysis for your picks against the spread, make sure and subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast, our daily NFL podcast. What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 2? And what Super Bowl contender is in for a massive shock? Visit SportsLine now to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs are a darling after their big Week 1 output in Patrick Mahomes' debut as a full-time starter. They were explosive and enthralling, and that means they're going to be a little overvalued. But they're not overvalued on this line, right? Instead it seems too obvious to take Kansas City. But I'm zigging here for a couple of reasons. One, the Steelers are a much better team at home. Two, the Steelers won't do a bunch of dumb stuff to cost themselves points like the Chargers. And three, while Andy Reid might be a better coach than Mike Tomlin, Tomlin's managed to dominate the Chiefs with Reid there when he has a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Ben was back at practice Friday and should be a full go for Sunday's tilt on CBS. Surprised at the number of people who like the Cowboys in this spot, although hating on Dallas is definitely an overreaction type of situation I suppose. My biggest concern is the Cowboys just looked terrible in a very specific spot, on the interior of their offensive line, where a lack of Travis Frederick showed up in a very big way. The Giants have a strength on the interior, thanks to the presence of Damon Harrison and rookie B.J. Hill. They should be able to get sufficient pressure up the middle to wreck Dak Prescott's day, and a lack of receiving options will let the Giants keep this close and ultimately win the game. I expect a big outing from both Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham as well. Buffalo Bills (+7) vs. Los Angeles Charges Grip your nose as hard as humanly possible and pinch, then pull the trigger on the Bills. This didn't feel good and it might feel even worse come Sunday at about 1:30 p.m. ET when Philip Rivers has lobbed a pair of touchdowns to Keenan Allen. On the other hand, betting against the Chargers in September has proven to be a profitable enterprise, and this is hardly a favorable situation for them. Los Angeles is traveling across the country to play in a bad spot. Buffalo went 5-2-1 against the spread at home last year, including straight up wins as big underdogs over the Chiefs and Broncos. They went 6-2 straight up at home last year, with their only losses coming to the Patriots and Saints, a couple of decent teams. Denver Broncos (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders This is as much a bet against the Raiders as it is for the Broncos. Oakland put everything on the line against the Rams in the first week of the season and could still only hang for three quarters at home in primetime. Denver is not as good as the Rams -- not even close, really -- but the defense might be better. The pass rushing combo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will create issues for Oakland's protection (which was surprisingly good against the Rams' nasty defensive line), and it's hard to see the Raiders receivers getting open against the Broncos cornerbacks. Jon Gruden already used the "throw it to Jared Cook and Jalen Richard" gameplan once -- we'll see if it can work a second time. Oakland's defense is coming off a short week and will be playing at altitude -- this could be a Royce Freeman breakout game coming. New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns I really struggled with who to take in this final spot -- I wanted to go with the Packers or the Vikings depending on Aaron Rodgers' status, but we don't know enough about whether the Packers' quarterback will play to make it a worthwhile play. I don't want DeShone Kizer +7 but I also don't want the Vikings -7 on the road against Rodgers after seeing what he did to the Bears last week. So instead I'm going to bet against Hue Jackson, who got his team amped up for a matchup against the Steelers at home but now has to travel on the road against a very angry Saints squad that's mad about losing to the Buccaneers and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1. The Saints are a big favorite, but went 5-3 last year against the spread, winning those games by an average of 10.2 points per game. 2018 record<doc-sep>Second-Tier Games Cardinals at Rams, 4:05 p.m., Fox A 20-point win punctuated by cornerback Marcus Peters — a prized off-season addition who leapt into the end zone for a touchdown off an interception — gave the impression that the Rams (1-0) were every bit as good as advertised. Before getting carried away, though, it’s worth remembering that the Rams were losing at halftime and ended up allowing 398 yards. That bend-don’t-break defensive approach worked for much of last season, but it was supposed to be improved with the additions of Aqib Talib, Ndamukong Suh and Peters. It’s possible that the Rams’ slow start on both sides of the ball reflected a decision to rest most of their stars during the preseason. If the Rams truly assert themselves, the Cardinals (0-1) will look even more underwhelming than they already have. Pick: Rams -13 Lions at 49ers, 4:05 p.m., Fox Both teams would like to forget Week 1. The Lions (0-1) were soundly outplayed by the Jets in all facets, and the 49ers (0-1) saw their golden boy, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, lose for the first time in his professional career. San Francisco is the more complete team, and will most probably prevail at home, but the spread is too generous in its favor. Pick: Lions +6 Dolphins at Jets, 1 p.m., CBS Miami’s Week 1 win over Tennessee was so drawn out by two weather delays that Kenny Stills’s second touchdown came more than five hours after his first one. The Dolphins (1-0) came away with a win, but they are probably happy to be playing this weekend in New Jersey, where the National Weather Service has predicted a sunny day and temperatures in the low 80s. The Jets (1-0), however, appear to be in transition from a scrappy team that made opponents work to one that might be something approaching good. Pick: Jets -3 Browns at Saints, 1 p.m., Fox After 31 Browns losses over the previous two seasons, their fans went into Week 1 hoping not to add another. They should have been more specific. Cleveland’s tie with Pittsburgh qualified as its best start to a season since 2004, but after a game that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger kept trying to give away, the Browns (0-0-1) had to be disappointed that they couldn’t find a way to win. To change that this week, they will have to become the second consecutive underdog to beat the Saints (0-1) in New Orleans. Pick: Saints -8.5 Panthers at Falcons, 1 p.m., Fox The Falcons (0-1) were fairly sloppy in Week 1, with their offense moving the ball but repeatedly faltering in the red zone. They have to hope that it was not a continuation of last year’s failures to punch the ball in, which really should not be an issue for an offense with Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Julio Jones. A home game against the Panthers (1-0) should be a tough test given how well Carolina’s defense swallowed up the Dallas attack in Week 1. Pick: Panthers +6<doc-sep>The three games above represent my best plays of the week because my analysis shows the point spreads are the most divergent from what I expect to happen once the teams take the field. One reason the house wins so often is because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. This makes trying to pick every single NFL game something of a fool’s errand. The odds should be in my favor in the three games above, which is why I think they’re worth a bet. Below you’ll find our chart predicting the betting edge for every game.<doc-sep>
We’re back for Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season! The Cincinnati Bengals got us started with a 34-23 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Given how badly the Ravens beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, TNF showed just how bad the Bills are right now. It also offered potential into the Indianapolis Colts, who hung tough with the Bengals in Week 1. The return of football means fantasy football and gambling are back in our lives. There is nothing quite like a little football gambling to make games that much more exciting. This season, I am taking part in the Westgate SuperContest. SB Nation’s partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting five games each week and picking them against the spread. I’ll be offering up all five SuperContest entries each week, along with picks against the spread for every game each week. In Week 1, I went 4-0-1 for SuperContest picks, and 9-6-1 for total picks. Here are my SuperContest entries for Week 2. Texans (PK) over TITANS The Titans are dealing with significant injuries at both tackle positions. Head coach Mike Vrabel said we might see both Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert in Sunday’s game. I think Vrabel’s comment is BS, but the Titans are coming off a poor Week 1 performance against Miami. I don’t like road teams, but Houston should be able to swing the victory. STEELERS (-4) over Chiefs This one scares me. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense dominated in Week 1, while Pittsburgh struggled to get on track against the Browns. I’m riding the hope that the awful Chiefs defense costs them in this one, and people are overreacting to Mahomes’ Week 1 performance. SAINTS (-8.5) over Browns It’s a sizable line, but it has also climbed since the SuperContest lines came out on Wednesday. I think the early line was a bit of an overreaction to the Browns managing the tie. However, considering they were +5 in turnovers and couldn’t win, I think they struggle in the Big Easy. BRONCOS (-6) over Raiders The Broncos are 22-10-3 against the spread and 32-3 straight up in their last 35 home games played in Weeks 1 and 2 of the regular season. The thought is, teams are not quite ready for the altitude. I don’t want to overreact to an awful Raiders second half against the Rams, but I think they struggle in this one. Giants (+3) over COWBOYS The Cowboys offensive line is a problem with Travis Frederick out. The Giants defense should have some success against that group. More importantly, Saquon Barkley has a chance to sparkle in prime time. A lot of people are betting on the Giants, but I think it’s the pick that makes sense on Sunday Night Football. Related 6 NFL teams that should be worried about their season already Here are all my picks for Week 2: BENGALS vs. Ravens (PK): Bengals — Win WASHINGTON vs. Colts (+6): Washington FALCONS vs. Panthers (+6): Falcons PACKERS vs. Vikings (-7): Packers BILLS vs. Chargers (-7): Bills TITANS vs. Texans (PK): Texans STEELERS vs. Chiefs (+4): Steelers JETS vs. Dolphins (+2.5): Dolphins BUCCANEERS vs. Eagles (-3.5): Bucs SAINTS vs. Browns (+8.5): Saints RAMS vs. Cardinals (+12.5): Cardinals 49ERS vs. Lions (+6): 49ers JAGUARS vs. Patriots (-1): Jaguars BRONCOS vs. Raiders (+6): Broncos COWBOYS vs. Giants (+3): Giants BEARS vs. Seahawks (+3.5): Bears