The day is finally upon us, gang! The playoffs start today for the Flames, and the Colorado Avalanche are back in town and looking to do some damage, to pull of some kind of upset. We love a first in the conference versus second wildcard team matchup, because mostly it makes our job in making projections a little easier. It’s easy to say “well yeah, that team that finished first in the whole conference and has been locked into the playoffs for like the past two months has the edge here.” And that may well be true! If we trust that the standings are at least close to an accurate marker of true talent, we would assume that it is. But in the interest of being thorough, let’s dig into some of the advanced metrics and see how well these two teams match up. Please note that all of these stats are at 5-on-5. All stats via Natural Stat Trick. On-ice possession 5v5 Chances For Team CF/60 CF% xGF/60 xGF% Team CF/60 CF% xGF/60 xGF% Flames 60.39 54.08 2.42 53.36 Avalanche 57.01 49.9 2.23 49.82 So what this tells us is that we have one team that tends to have the puck more often than they allow their opponent to have it, and one that tends to give up more chances than they create. On average, the Flames tend to have the edge in territorial play, creating, on average, about 54 percent of the shot attempts on any given night. But they aren’t just taking the lead in the shot volume battle in this matchup, they’re also getting the better of the shot quality, as they tend to generate more quality chances than they allow. The Avalanche, on the other hand, have tended to bleed more shot attempts and quality chances than they’ve been able to create. So, in conclusion, the Flames have generated more and better shots than the Avalanche during the regular season. So that’s one advantage. Top lines 5v5 Top Line Stats Team GF/60 CF/60 CF% xGF/60 xGF% Team GF/60 CF/60 CF% xGF/60 xGF% Flames 3.79 61.06 54.13 2.61 53.47 Avalanche 3.28 64.57 54.74 2.4 50.36 But let’s dig a little deeper into those numbers. If we’re also pulling narratives on this series, one is that we’ve got high powered top line against high powered top line, two of the most prolific lines in the league, both slugging it out. And this isn’t an unfair narrative—the Avalanche's top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen against Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm should be a good and fun matchup, if the coaches opt to run this thing one for one. And pound for pound, blow for blow, this would be a pretty even match. The Flames’ top line has slightly out-produced the Avalanche’s in terms of goals scored, and tend to generate more high danger chances per game. The Avalanche’s top line, though, generates more raw shot attempts per game, and has tended to hold more of a territorial advantage over their opponents than the Flames’ has. So, as a person who tends to value quality chances more than shot attempts, I want to give the Flames the advantage in this area as well, but we could just as easily call this one a draw. You can make your own decision on this one. Depth contributions 5v5 Depth Stats Team GF/60 CF/60 CF% xGF/60 xGF% Team GF/60 CF/60 CF% xGF/60 xGF% Flames 2.67 59.56 53.22 2.33 52.59 Avalanche 2.12 54.25 48.6 2.09 49.09 When we move to look at these two teams’ depth contributions, that is, coming from anyone beyond that top line, the Flames get a good bit more separation once again. In short, outside of their top lines, the Flames have scored more goals and generated both more raw chances and high danger shots. Additionally, when the Flames’ top line is not on the ice, they’re still, generally speaking, able to drive play positively, while the Avalanche are not. In fact, without MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Rantanen on the ice, the Avalanche tend to both be out-shot and out-chanced. Their depth players just haven’t been able to bring the same level of production. So that’s another advantage in the Flames’ column. Defense 5v5 Chances Allowed Team GA/60 CA/60 SA/60 xGA/60 Team GA/60 CA/60 SA/60 xGA/60 Flames 2.3 52.02 27.96 2.14 Avalanche 2.38 57.82 30.83 2.27 It can be a bit more difficult to quantify defense, so we’re going to get a little creative here and approximate, based on what each team gives up. And, huh, would you look at that, the Flames are going to take this one, as well. There really isn’t any use trying to dress this one up or draw out the point. During the regular season, the Avalanche gave up more goals, shot attempts, and high danger chances than the Flames did. And this may not have been a result so much of the efforts of their defensemen specifically as it was the whole Flames team just limiting the chances that they gave up, but the result still stands. The Avalanche would have to work that much harder to get shots on net. And speaking of nets, that brings us to our last point. Goaltending 5v5 Goalie Stats Player GP GA GAA SV% HDSV% Player GP GA GAA SV% HDSV% Mike Smith 42 81 2.53 0.906 0.816 David Rittich 45 68 2.06 0.929 0.849 Semyon Varlamov 49 92 2.48 0.919 0.82 Phillipp Grubauer 37 59 2.25 0.928 0.84 Finally, we’ve got the real wildcard. We love to say that goalies are voodoo, and that still feels appropriate to bring up here. Because they are. It could get weird. Anyway, this all works out to looking like pretty even of a matchup, by the numbers. Varlamov has been positioned as the pretty clear starter, and while he’s posted a better save percentage than Smith (who’s starting tonight), Rittich comes in above him there, as well as in high danger save percentage (where each of these goalies is actually slightly above average). So who has the edge in this one? It depends on the night.<doc-sep>Colorado Avalanche Coverage: Mile High Hockey The regular season has finally ended and it’s time for the Stanley Cup Playoffs! The Flames roared into the playoffs as the best team in the Western Conference during the regular season, whereas the Colorado Avalanche made it as the 8th and final team in the West. Here’s a look at how each team matches up and how they compare historically. 2018-19 Season Calgary Flames: 50-25-7 (107 pts), 1st Place Pacific, 1st Place Western Conference Colorado Avalanche: 38-30-14 (90 pts), 5th Place Central, 8th Place Western Conference Home & Away Records Calgary Flames: 26-10-5 (Home), 24-15-2 (Away) Colorado Avalanche: 21-14-6 (Home), 17-16-8 (Away) Team Leaders Flames: Goals- Gaudreau (36), Points- Gaudreau (99), PIM- Bennett (93), Save%- Rittich (.911) Avalanche: Goals- McKinnon (41), Points- McKinnon (99), PIM- Cole (115), Save%- Grubauer (.917) 2018-19 Head To Head (3-0-0) 10/13: Calgary Flames 3 @ Colorado Avalanche 2 (OTW) 11/1: Calgary Flames 6 vs Colorado Avalanche 5 (W) 1/9: Calgary Flames 5 vs Colorado Avalanche 3 (W) Overall Head To Head The Calgary Flames lead the all time series between these two 78-66-20. The Flames are 43-30-9 at home against the Avalanche and 35-36-11 at Pepsi Center when visiting Colorado. This will be the first time they have met in the playoffs. The Flames have had a pretty good run against the Avalanche, going 8-1-0 in their last nine games against Colorado. Playoff Records Calgary Flames: 99-124 Colorado Avalanche: 137-125 Stanley Cup Appearances Calgary Flames: 1986- Calgary vs Montreal, 1-4 (L), 1989- Calgary vs Montreal, 4-2 (W), 2004- Calgary vs Tampa Bay, 3-4 (L), Stanley Cup Record: 1-2 Colorado Avalanche: 1996- Colorado vs Florida, 4-0 (W), 2001- Colorado vs New Jersey, 4-3 (W) Stanley Cup Record: 2-0 2018-19 Western Conference Playoff Schedule Calgary Flames (P1) vs. Colorado Avalanche (WC1) Thursday, April 11, 10 p.m.: Avalanche @ Flames | SN, CBC, TVA Sports, NBCSN Saturday, April 13, 10:30 p.m.: Avalanche @ Flames | SN, CBC, TVA Sports, NBCSN Monday, April 15, 10 p.m.: Flames @ Avalanche | CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports Wednesday, April 17, 10 p.m.: Flames @ Avalanche | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports *Friday, April 19, TBD: Avalanche @ Flames | TBD *Sunday, April 21, TBD: Flames @ Avalanche | TBD *Tuesday, April 23, TBD: Avalanche @ Flames | TBD<doc-sep>The Avalanche on Thursday night will begin its run at the Stanley Cup when it opens the playoffs at Calgary. Colorado hasn’t won a playoff series since 2008, when it topped the Minnesota Wild 4-2 in the Western Conference quarterfinals. Will this be the year the Avs break their streak of bad luck? Our staff shares its opinion. Mike Chambers, Avalanche beat reporter Flames in 7. The Avs could steal a game in Calgary and be strong at home, but defeating a top-seeded Canadian team with home-ice advantage will be extremely difficult. I won’t be surprised to see a series upset but, given the Flames’ brilliant season and their rabid fan base, the favorite has to be favored. Mark Kiszla, columnist Flames in 7 games. But Avs goaltender Philipp Grubauer cannot only steal a game, he could steal the series. Sean Keeler, reporter Flames in 6 games. If Playoff Gruby looks like March Gruby, anything’s possible. But the Flames come in waves offensively, given five skaters with at least 74 points. The non-MGM guys on the Avs’ roster did a heck of a job picking up the flag over the past three weeks with Landeskog and Rantanen on the mend. To get past the Flames, though, they’re going to have to run with it. Kyle Fredrickson, reporter Flames in 6 games. Give Colorado credit for clawing and fighting to reach the playoffs, but Calgary ran away with the Western Conference crown for good reason. The Flames’ offensive firepower will be too much for the Avalanche. Matt L. Stephens, editor Flames in 7 games. Mikko Rantanen is once again healthy, and so is Gabe Landeskog. The best line in hockey is reunited, and it feels so good. But Rantanen, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon will only be on the ice together at home. Colorado will sweep at Pepsi Center, but it won’t be enough to end Calgary’s magical season. Lori Punko, editor Avalanche in 7 games. Yes, the Flames beat the Avalanche three times in the regular season. And yes, Calgary won the West. But the Flames closed out the regular season 9-5, while the Avs went 8-0-2 behind Grubauber’s impressive showing in net. Mikko Rantanen is finally back, and Cale Maker joins the team for Game 3 on Monday. Yes, it’s a longshot, but the pendulum is swinging in Colorado’s favor.<doc-sep>Game 1 Preview 1st period Mike Smith gets the goaltending nod for the Calgary Flames. Philip Grubauer starts for the Colorado Avalanche. Matthew Tkachuk and Erik Johnson aquaint themselves to start off round 1 playoffs series. Avs first to go on the PK, with Johnson taking a slashing penalty 7 minutes in. Flames 0/1 on PP. The Flames successful in their first penalty kill - Mikael Backlund going off for cross-checking. Zero shots on net for the Avs. Travis Hamonic with a huge block on Nathan MacKinnon who shot a pass from Tyson Barrie. Barrie coming back after having to replace his stick on a shot attempt on the same PP shift. The Avs finding themselves offsides to start the power play, 0/1 on PP with Brassard shooting wide getting a piece of the post. I don’t know how i feel about Smiths puck handling skills - Flames fans hold their breathe every time he gives up that puck on a pass. The Avs going 0/2 on the PP, again having trouble staying onside early in the PP. Noah Hanafin comes out of the Flames penalty box clean. The score remains 0-0 in the first period. Shots 7 for Avs, 6 for Flames. PIM 2 for Avs, 4 for Flames. The 1st ends with a 2-on-1 rush - Matthew Tkachuk with Micheal Frolik. Avs Patrik Nemeth making a stealth defensive move and obstructing #19s shot with the shaft of his stick with under a minute left in the period. 2nd period Tyson Barrie gets first shot away of the 2nd. TJ Brodie takes a hooking call soon after, and the Avs go on their 3rd power play of the game. Elias Lindholm making a key face/off win, as Mark Giordano clears the puck. Excitement peaks as Smith makes a game saving flash of the glove not once but TWICE in the last 35 seconds to kill off a Flames penalty. Smith is in the ZONE - early in the 2nd period. Smith confident as ever, still a scoreless game, plays the puck behind the net and around the boards. Johnny Gaudreau off to the horses with a neutral zone steal - Monahan alongside him - Samuel Girard intercepting for the Avs. Hamonic making one of the best defensive moves of the night with a poke check on a chance by Carl Soderberg. Andrew Mangiapane getting a chance with an offensive rush from the 4th line. Shots are 14 for Avs, 10 for Flames at the halfway mark of the scoreless game. Delayed penalty on the Colorado Avalanche - Carl Soderberg with the trip on Johnny. Grubauer holding fort for the Avs - making huge saves, first on James Neal on his left side, then stretching to his right shutting out Sam Bennett’s scoring attempt. MANGIAPANE wheels around for a backhand shot, with a knee down, SCORES FOR THE CALGARY FLAMES! Breaks the ice with 5 minutes left to play in the 2nd period. Hathaway first to hug Mangiapane - hits the crossbar on his next shift, draws a penalty. TKACHUK getting a piece of Giorando’s point shot, deflects it in net for a Flames PP goal, such great eye hand coordination by #19. It’s a 2-0 game for the Calgary Flames at the end of the 2nd period. Shots in the second period were 8 for the Avs, 13 for the Flames. PIM 4 for Avs, 2 for Flames. 3rd Period Smith solid with an early 3rd period save on Mikko Rantanen - Flames fans chanting “Smitty Smitty” for the second time in the game. Flames goaltender making yet another huge save on the Flames PK. The score in game 1 is 2-0 Calgary Flames with the lead, 12 minutes left to play, thanks to Smitty and his confidence. He plays the puck behind the net in the 3rd period as well. Grubauer and Smith dueling it out as play goes from end-to-end. Smith winning the goalie showdown, turning aside a total of 9 shots from the Avs number one line - 5 of which were from MacKinnon. Calgary Flames depth able to put on a show, the puck trickling in for the Flames 3rd goal, coming from 3M Backlund. Followed by an empty netter for Flames, making it Tkachuk’s second goal of game 1 with an ASSIST FROM MIKE SMITH! Who is this guy between the Flames pipes! 4-on-4 to end the game. Hamonic and Calvert off for roughing. Shots were 11 for the Avs, and 13 for the Flames in the 3rd. PIM 6 for Avs, 4 for Flames. Honorable Mentions: Mike Smith 1st Star - 26 save shutout! You better believe Bill Peters is riding his hot horse - Smitty until he loses. Travis Hamonic was on guard, and gets team props - from blocking shots, to racing to poke check pucks, and taking away space from Avs forwards - Smith had no doubt in his front line. Face/off wins were key in the game and the Flames dominated with 65% success in the F/O circle. Up Next: Game 2 is at the Saddledome on Saturday, April 13th at 8:30pm MT.<doc-sep>
The Colorado Avalanche opened their 2019 playoff run on the wrong foot in a 4-0 loss in game one against Mike Smith and the Calgary Flames. Philipp Grubauer only stopped 28 of 31 shots in the loss, while the offense went dry, taking only 26 shots and going zero for four on the power play. First Period Calgary came out flying and it was clear that Colorado would need to withstand the early game energy the Flames got from the home crowd. The Avs looked they were a little out of sync to start the game and didn’t control the puck much in their offensive zone but despite some possible early game jitters the Avalanche were able to keep the Flames off the board and the fans in their seats. Erik Johnson was sent to the box for the first penalty of the series for basically being taller than Matthew Tkachuk. The two did some stick shoving after a play was called dead and Johnson’s cross check went to the face of the shorter Tkachuk. The Avs provided a solid penalty kill and never gave Calgary any good scoring chance or an early lead. Colorado would be awarded their first power play when Samuel Girard drew a cross checking penalty against Mikael Backlund and while the Avs would come up empty on the man advantage they carried the momentum from that power play over and really seemed to start taking more control of the pace of the period. They were beating Calgary to pucks, getting solid chances and had the Flames oh their heels more. The period would end with neither team moving the scoring needle in a very evenly matched 20 minutes. Second Period Colorado would go on an early power play, their third of the game, and for the last :30 seconds of the power play would test Calgary goalie Mike Smith multiple times who needed to make highlight reel saves to keep the Avs off the board. The Avs were a much more confident team in the second and continued to control the pace of play and developed some excellent scoring chances but could not find a way to get one through Smith. As great as Mike Smith was, Colorado brought a save machine of their own in Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer made some wonderful saves on a Calgary power play and shut down the Flames man advantage, but it was a 5-on-5 backhanded goal by Andrew Mangiapane that would open the series scoring and give the Flames a 1-0 lead. That goal really woke up Calgary and their crowd who had been pretty lethargic once the first period high wore down. The sea of red (branded “C” of Red by Calgary) started to become a factor again, and when the Avs went a man down it didn’t take long for Calgary to score again and rile up the home crowd again. This time a tip in by Matthew Tkachuk on the power play to give the Flames two goals a little over four minutes apart. Colorado would challenge the goal claiming goalie interference, but the goal would be upheld. Third Period Colorado needed a goal early and Mikko Rantanen had a great opportunity firing a wrist shot high on Smith’s glove side, but Smith again denied the Avs. The Avs were awarded an early opportunity in the 3rd with a power play after a hooking call, and Nathan MacKinnon was so close to lighting the lamp but rang the goalpost instead and Colorado would get nothing out of the power play for the 4th time. The Avalanche could do nothing but throw their hands up in wonderment on how they could get anything past Smith, as was evident when Nathan MacKinnon collected the puck, turned on the jets and fired an absolute laser that Smith nabbed with his glove like the reflexes of a cat. Nonetheless, Colorado kept the pressure on trying to find any way possible to solve Mike Smith’s mastery in goal but it would not come on this day. The final nail in the coffin came when Nikita Zadorov was hit with a penalty with just over three minutes remaining in the game. The Calgary goal during the power play followed by an empty netter were not even necessary as the Flames would ride to a 4-0 victory and take the series opener.