According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the National League team with the best chance of winning the World Series is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers brought back pretty much the whole gang that won the pennant last year, and while star shortstop Corey Seager went down for the year with a sprained UCL, they replaced him with Manny Machado, the best player to change teams during the season. On Opening Day, they were slim National League favorites in the FanGraphs projections. But PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projections system, gave the Dodgers a 15.5 percent chance of winning the World Series, best in the National League by six points and only a tenth of a point behind the Houston Astros for best overall. They may well be the best team in the National League. But at the moment, the Dodgers, the favorites to win the pennant, are not in position to even make the playoffs. They are half a game out of the NL West lead, and a full game out of the second wild-card spot. Admittedly, playoff odds and projections systems are somewhat imprecise, and this late in the season, a gigantic talent gap between two competitors can be erased by an ill-timed rainstorm, a blown call, or a misplaced slider. But that bit of trivia—that the NL World Series favorite would not make the playoffs if the season ended today—is a fitting illustration of this year’s Dodgers: a sleeping giant that’s rapidly running out of time to wake up. So, let’s explore both sides of that proposition: Why are the Dodgers still struggling to break into the upper third of the National League standings, and why might they still be one of the scariest teams in baseball if they manage to do so? Why the Dodgers Aren’t in a Playoff Position Even though the names on this year’s Dodgers team are mostly the same as the names on the 104-win club from a year ago, many of last year’s stars have suffered from injury or regression. Seager, of course, is the most notable example: He was a 5.6-bWAR player last year, and his ability to both play in the middle of the diamond and hit in the middle of the lineup would have made him the cornerstone of just about any team. This year, Seager appeared in just 26 games and hit .267/.348/.396. Justin Turner (152 OPS+) has been outstanding when he’s been in the lineup, but a broken wrist and a series of nagging muscle strains and pulls have limited him to just 86 games thus far. Clayton Kershaw has also spent time on the DL with injuries to his back and biceps, and closer Kenley Jansen has missed time in the second half of the season while dealing with a heart condition that has rendered him unable to pitch at high altitude. Of course, the 2017 Dodgers also dealt with numerous injuries, including to players, such as Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu, who have also spent significant time on the DL this year, but they were able to maintain a 104-win pace in part because so many of their erstwhile stopgaps ended up performing like All-Stars. Last year, in his age-21 season, Cody Bellinger hit 39 home runs in just 132 games, taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors, making the All-Star team, and finishing ninth in MVP voting. Chris Taylor, best known during his time in Seattle as “Not Nick Franklin, and not Brad Miller, but the other frustrating shortstop,” had a 4.8-win season in which he played five different positions and continued to put up big numbers in the playoffs, where he was named the 2017 NLCS co-MVP. Perhaps most impressive, former Braves prospect Alex Wood started the season by going 11-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his first 16 starts, and though he cooled off down the stretch, Wood earned a Cy Young vote and pitched well in the World Series. While the 2018 Dodgers have also had their share of pleasant surprises, part of the slide back to their current 88-win pace is the result of players who were great in 2017 merely being good in 2018, or good players going back to somewhere around average. Wood’s ERA, while still better than league average, is almost a run higher than it was last year, while Rich Hill’s is up about half a run. Backup catcher and second baseman Austin Barnes hit .289/.408/.486 last year, and this year he’s hitting .197/.326/.255. Taylor went from hitting .288/.354/.496 to hitting .248/.324/.442. Bellinger dropped from .267/.352/.581 to .257/.340/.468, and after posting a .903 OPS against left-handed pitchers last year, he’s hitting just .222/.307/.387 against them in 2018. None of these individual drop-offs is huge by itself, and some of them have been offset by gains at other positions, but collectively they add up. Except, even regression by a few of 2017’s breakout players doesn’t cover everything. While the Dodgers brought back the bulk of a 104-win team, they passed on an opportunity to improve the team through free agency in the offseason. For the first time since 2013, the Dodgers did not open this season with the highest payroll in baseball. In fact, their Opening Day payroll this year was roughly $54 million less than it was in 2017, and $84 million less than the high-water mark in 2015. In other words, between last year and this year, the Dodgers’ payroll dropped by more than twice what the Tampa Bay Rays are spending on their entire 25-man roster. This is the result of the Dodgers’ attempt to drop below MLB’s competitive balance tax threshold after paying some $150 million in tax from 2013 to 2017. By getting below the sport’s de facto soft salary cap, which taxes repeat offenders progressively more, the Dodgers save money for the next few years. And after expensive bench players like Adrián González and Andre Ethier left the team, the Dodgers were able to shed that salary without ditching any major contributors, except Yu Darvish, who left for the Cubs as a free agent mere months after joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline. If the Dodgers had been willing to put together another $240 million payroll, however, they could have re-signed Darvish or made a run at Jake Arrieta or J.D. Martinez, and would undoubtedly be a stronger team for it. Dropping under the tax is certainly an understandable business decision in the long term, but it also weakened the team at least somewhat in the short term. On top of all that, the standings also overstate how much worse the Dodgers are this year compared to last. Right now, despite sitting on the wrong side of the NL playoff bubble, the Dodgers have the best run differential in the league, at plus-133. While the Dodgers are on an 88-win pace, 16 wins worse than last year, their 2017 and 2018 run differentials say they’re only five games worse than they were last year. Every year, one or more teams massively outperforms its run differential, and one or more teams massively underperforms its run differential. Sometimes this is the result of a team being built to win close and lose big—the 2012 through 2016 Orioles being the best recent example, with their cadre of elite relievers who could shut down close games. But more often it’s just luck or randomness. Right now, the Dodgers are 1.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies in the NL West, despite beating them on run differential by 135 runs. The Dodgers are also 86 runs better on run differential than the wild-card-leading Milwaukee Brewers. And unlike the Brewers, whose high-leverage relief trio of Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, and Corey Knebel is as good as any in recent memory, the Rockies aren’t exactly built like the 2012 Orioles. The Dodgers have a superior team bullpen ERA- (which accounts for park effects) and WPA to Colorado, but the Rockies are 25-14 in one-run games, while the Dodgers are 21-21.<doc-sep>The Los Angeles Dodgers are no longer on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. With Friday’s 3-0 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Dodgers are now tied with the Cardinals for the NL’s second Wild Card spot. The teams have identical 81-67 records this season after Walker Buehler outdueled fellow rookie Jack Flaherty in an anticipated pitching matchup. Buehler tossed eight scoreless innings, striking out nine while allowing only two hits. Flaherty allowed one run over six sharp innings. He struck out eight. [Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free] The difference in this one was Yasiel Puig’s bat. The Dodger outfielder slugged a pair of solo home runs, giving him 18 on the season. Kenley Jansen earned his 35th save with a scoreless ninth. Both teams are still chasing the Milwaukee Brewers, who hold a four-game lead for the top Wild Card spot in the NL. Yasiel Puig helped the Los Angeles Dodgers pull even with the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL’s second Wild Card with two homers Friday night. (AP) The state of MLB’s playoff races • NL West: The Dodgers also gained ground on the Colorado Rockies, who lost 2-0 to the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers are one-half game back in the division standings. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 3.5 games back. • NL Central: The Chicago Cubs have navigated their tricky schedule pretty effectively. After making a quick trip to Washington D.C. and winning Thursday’s makeup game against the Nationals, the Cubs returned home to secure a 3-2 win against the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers stayed right on their tails with a 7-4 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago’s division lead remains at 1.5. • NL East: The Atlanta Braves are on some kind of roll right now. Their winning streak is up to six following a 10-5 dismantling of Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals. The Braves squared up Scherzer for six runs in four innings, which will put a dent in his Cy Young hopes. The Philadelphia Phillies continued clinging to their postseason hopes with a 14-2 win against the Marlins. Atlanta’s still in firm command with a six-game lead. Story continues • AL West: The Oakland Athletics still have their eyes on a division title. They topped the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in a 10-inning thriller at Tropicana Field. They were able to move within 2.5 games of the Houston Astros, who lost 4-2 to the Diamondbacks. Aaron Judge returned for New York Yankees Friday night, but is limited to running and playing defense for now. (AP) • AL Wild Card: The Yankees and A’s are still in cruise control after each notching wins. The Yankees are up 1.5 on Oakland for the top spot, while the A’s lead for the second Wild Card grew to 8.5 games. Magic Number Watch • Cleveland Indians — 1: The champagne will stay on ice in Cleveland. The Indians guaranteed their would be no clincher Friday night after falling to the Tigers 5-4. However, their chances to clinch Saturday improved greatly after the Minnesota Twins lost to the Kansas City Royals on Salvador Perez’s walk-off grand slam. • Boston Red Sox — 6: The Red Sox are no closer to clinching the AL East after being shut out by Noah Syndergaard and the New York Mets, 8-0. The New York Yankees made it a clean sweep for New York’s teams, beating the Blue Jays 11-0. That keeps Boston’s Magic Number at six and lowers their division lead to 9.5 games. If the playoff started tomorrow Wild-card games: A’s at Yankees; Cardinals or Dodgers at Brewers ALDS: Indians vs. Astros; Wild-card winner vs. Red Sox NLDS: Rockies vs. Braves; Wild-card winner vs. Cubs Elimination Watch The Twins aren’t likely to survive the weekend after their elimination number lowered to one. They’re next in line to join the Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, Padres, Reds, Marlins and Angels as postseason outsiders. Saturday’s must-see game The biggest series of the weekend continues in St. Louis. The Dodgers are still chasing the Rockies in the NL West standings, but they’re also looking to claim a wild card spot after tying the Cardinals on Friday. Saturday’s afternoon matchup will feature veteran Rich Hill (8-5, 3.88) pitching for Los Angeles against Cardinals rookie John Gant (7-5, 3,16). More from Yahoo Sports: • Nike stock closes at all-time high after Kaepernick ad • Le’Veon Bell congratulates his fill-in RB • Horrifying allegations against Celtic emerge • Terez Paylor: Nike’s controversial campaign is nothing new<doc-sep>The 2018 MLB regular season ends Sunday, Sept. 30, meaning the postseason is now only four weeks away. There are still plenty of postseason races that have to be decided between now and then. With that in mind, here is an update on the current National League postseason picture. Here is the SportsLine Projection System and here is what the NL postseason field would look like if the season ended today (Click here for the American League playoff picture): Wild Card Game : Cardinals at Brewers : Cardinals at Brewers NLDS : Wild Card Game winner at Cubs : Wild Card Game winner at Cubs NLDS: Rockies at Braves Make sure to check out SportsLine's daily pick sheet for insight about every game. NL East leader: Braves (76-61) Games remaining: 25 (12 Home, 13 Away) 25 (12 Home, 13 Away) Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .521 .521 SportsLine's playoff odds: 80.6 percent 80.6 percent SportsLine's World Series odds: 3.51 percent The Braves have actually gone 8-10 since mid-August but gained two games in the standings thanks to lacking play from Philly. So long as the lead stays about right here, though, the Braves aren't out of the woods. They close the season by playing the Phillies seven of their last 10 games. It would behoove them to build on that lead, as to not have to deal with meaningful games in those last 10. NL Central leader: Cubs (81-56) Games remaining: 25 (13 Home, 12 Away) 25 (13 Home, 12 Away) Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .505 .505 SportsLine's playoff odds: 99.9 percent 99.9 percent SportsLine's World Series odds: 8.26 percent The Cubs have the best record in the NL by four games and it's actually five in the loss column. As can be seen above, it's extremely unlikely they'd miss the postseason altogether and SportsLine has the Cubs taking the Central in 92.1 percent of its simulations. The Cubs do have five games left against the Brewers and three against the Cardinals, so they can't fold. If they don't, it's a third straight NL Central title. NL West leader: Rockies (75-62) Games remaining: 25 (16 Home, 9 Away) 25 (16 Home, 9 Away) Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .546 .546 SportsLine's playoff odds: 26.7 percent 26.7 percent SportsLine's World Series odds: 1.49 percent A division leader with just a 14.8 percent chance of taking the West? It's only a half-game lead and SportsLine loves it some Dodgers. That's an awfully tough remaining schedule for the Rockies. There are, however, six games left against the Dodgers and seven against the Diamondbacks. We could look at that as a tough road or as an opportunity. If the Rockies want to take the West, they can simply take care of business within it. NL wild card leader: Brewers (78-61) Games remaining: 23 (14 Home, 9 Away) 23 (14 Home, 9 Away) Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .491 .491 SportsLine's playoff odds: 88.5 percent 88.5 percent SportsLine's World Series odds: 2.01 percent After a funk in the middle of August, the Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 games. They are four games back with five head-to-heads against the Cubs remaining, so the division is definitely in play. SportsLine only gives the Brewers a 4.8 percent chance of taking the division, though, and it makes sense because they'd likely have to win out against the Cubs and that still only evens them up in the loss column. More likely: The Brewers host the Wild Card Game and then look for a shot at the Cubs in the NLDS. NL wild card runner-up: Cardinals (76-62) Games remaining: 24 (13 Home, 9 Away) 24 (13 Home, 9 Away) Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .526 .526 SportsLine's playoff odds: 72.1 percent 72.1 percent SportsLine's World Series odds: 5.26 percent The Cardinals were an MLB-best 22-6 in August, but they've lost their first three games in September and have fallen back behind the Brewers. They had whittled the Cubs' lead to 3 1/2, but that is back up to 5 1/2 with several teams hot on their tail for the wild card, so that's the focus for now. They do end with three against the Cubs, but it seems for now like the four game series against the Dodgers and three gamer against the Brewers matter more. Teams on the outside looking in Dodgers (75-63): Los Angeles has won eight of their last 10 and don't have a tough remaining schedule (.489). Also, six games remain against the Rockies, so the Dodgers definitely control their own fate here. The computers have loved them all season, so it isn't surprising to see the Dodgers with a 71.7 percent chance to win the West, an 80.8 percent chance to make the playoffs and 20.96 chance to win it all. No one else in the NL even shows over 10 percent. Seems rather bullish. Diamondbacks (74-64): Arizona led the NL West for most of August, but lost three of four to the Dodgers over this past weekend. They lost again Monday, so they are 1 1/2 back of the Rockies and a game back of L.A. The rest of the schedule is brutal, with Arizona having to go through the Braves, Rockies, Astros, Cubs, Rockies again and Dodgers, among four Padres games. Perhaps the schedule is why SportsLine only gives the Diamondbacks a 26.8 percent chance of making the playoffs again. Phillies (72-65): Since having a 1 1/2-game lead through Aug. 7, the Phillies have gone 8-16. They now trail the Braves by four games in the East and sit 3 1/2 games back in the wild card with two teams in the way. SportsLine now only gives them a 19.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. Do take note of those seven remaining head-to-head games with the Braves, however. Nationals (69-69): Washington is pretty well cooked and has already offloaded some of its better players, but they get a mention here for SportsLine giving them a 4.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. They would need some help to come back from 7 1/2 games in the East while also jumping the Phillies. Teams eliminated Actually, none have been officially eliminated so far, but it won't be long with the likes of the Padres and Marlins. The Reds and Mets would come next. A bit later, the Pirates and Giants will join the group and then, barring a miracle, the Nationals will as well. Still, the National League is where it's at for the races. One of two teams could win the NL East while one of three could take the Central and the same goes for the wild West. There are eight teams within 3 1/2 games of a playoff spot with under a month left in the season.<doc-sep>
The Los Angeles Dodgers had another productive day Saturday, and we’re not just talking about the 17 runs they scored in their dismantling of the St. Louis Cardinals. With their lopsided victory at Busch Stadium, Los Angeles extended its winning streak to four games while making huge progress in the standings. First, the Dodgers passed St. Louis for the NL’s second Wild Card spot. Later on, they also passed the Colorado Rockies for first place in the NL West after Colorado lost again to the San Francisco Giants. [Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free] Obviously, leading the division is a much bigger deal for the Dodgers. When all’s said and done, playoff teams want to avoid the do-or-die Wild-Card game. But the success they’ve had this weekend guarantees they’ll at least finish the weekend tied for a wild card position. That’s a big improvement from where they started the week. The last two Dodgers victories have been sparked by Yasiel Puig. The up and down outfielder slugged two homers in Friday’s win, and then followed that up with three home runs and seven RBI on Saturday. Yasiel Puig’s hot streak has helped the Dodgers reclaim first place in the NL West. (AP) As a result of Saturday’s shifts in the standings, the Dodgers will enter Sunday with a half-game lead over the Rockies and four-game edge on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. The Rockies now own the second NL Wild Card spot with a half-game lead over St. Louis. The Milwaukee Brewers have a three-game edge for the top NL Wild Card. The state of MLB’s playoff races • NL Central: One run was all the Chicago Cubs needed to pad their division lead. They topped the Cincinnati Reds 1-0. Unfortunately for the Brewers, their one run wasn’t enough. They lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 and are now 2.5 games out of first place. • NL East: The Atlanta Braves lost 7-1 to the Washington Nationals, snapping a six-game winning streak. The Philadelphia Phillies took advantage of the Braves rare slip up, edging the Miami Marlins 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park. Atlanta’s lead narrows to five games. Story continues • AL West: The Houston Astros regained the game they lost to the Oakland Athletics on Friday. Houston came up with a big 10-4 win against the D-backs. The A’s fell to the Tampa Bay Rays, 7-5, which extended Houston’s division lead back to 3.5 games. • AL Wild Card: No movement to report atop the AL Wild Card. The New York Yankees maintain a 1.5 game lead over the A’s for the top spot despite losing 8-7 to the Toronto Blue Jays. The A’s loss narrowed their lead for the second spot to eight games. Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel locked down his 41st save to help his squad the division lead. (AP) Magic Number Watch • Boston Red Sox — 4: After losing the series opener to the New York Mets, the Red Sox bounced back with a 5-3 victory Saturday to give them 102 wins on the season. That win, coupled with the Yankees loss to Toronto, lowered Boston’s Magic Number to four. Already clinched • Cleveland Indians: The Indians became the first team to clinch their division, winning the AL Central with a dominant 15-0 victory. They joined the Red Sox as the only two teams to wrap up a playoff berth. If the playoff started tomorrow Wild-card games: A’s at Yankees; Rockies at Brewers ALDS: Indians vs. Astros; Wild-card winner vs. Red Sox NLDS: Dodgers vs. Braves; Wild-card winner vs. Cubs Elimination Watch The Indians division clincher officially eliminated the Minnesota Twins from postseason contention. Minnesota is now the 11th to be knocked out, joining the Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, Padres, Reds, Marlins and Angels. The Mets and Giants are next in line with elimination numbers of three. Sunday’s must-see game It’s tough to pick just one game from Sunday’s slate, so we’ll actually give you three to keep a close eye on. One includes the Mets, but that’s only because NL Cy Young candidate Jacob deGrom (8-9, 1.71) is facing the Red Sox lineup and Chris Sale (12-4, 1.96). In Houston, the AL West-leading Astros will send Justin Verlander (15-9, 2.72) against Zack Greinke (14-9, 3.11) and the desperate Diamondbacks. Then in the Sunday night main event, it’s the finale of Dodgers-Cardinals.