Democratic candidate Mike Espy has a narrow lead in the Mississippi Senate special election, barely edging out Republican candidate and incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a new NBC News poll shows. Hyde-Smith has carried a lead in the race for some time now, and as an incumbent with the endorsement of President Donald Trump in a red state, has been considered the favorite. "This poll, just like others, shows the momentum Mike Espy has in Mississippi," said Espy's campaign manager, Oleta Fitzgerald, according to the Clarion Ledger. "This poll confirms that Mississippi voters are tired of the same old left versus right political rhetoric." What else does the poll reveal? The poll results may be an indication of something Democrats have been hoping for: That the two Republicans in the "jungle primary" style election may be taking votes from each other, allowing Espy to climb into contention. The special election, which will fill the seat vacated last year by former Sen. Thad Cochran's resignation, will feature the candidates on the ballot without party labels. A candidate must earn 50 percent or more of the vote to win; otherwise, the top two vote-getters will advance to a run-off. With a run-off seeming inevitable based on polling, that leaves a high-stakes fight between Hyde-Smith and state Sen. Chris McDaniel, the other Republican in the race, for the other run-off spot. The NBC News poll showed Espy polling at 25 percent, Hyde-Smith at 24 percent, and McDaniel not far behind at 19 percent. Longshot candidate Tobey Bartee earned 4 percent in the poll, with a large number (27 percent) of voters responding that they are undecided. McDaniel hopeful, while Trump tries to boost Hyde-Smith McDaniel's campaign spokesman said the NBC News poll and others, show promise for McDaniel's chances in the special election. "Whether you're referencing (a poll done for a McDaniel-supporting PAC) that has us leading by 8 points or NBC's poll that has us within 5, the numbers demonstrate what we are seeing on the ground in Mississippi ... Powered by hard-working volunteers across Mississippi, our momentum is surging, and Hyde-Smith's campaign is fading," spokesman Tanner Watson told the Clarion Ledger in a statement. Trump, highlighting the importance of holding the Mississippi Senate seat, campaigned in the state for Hyde-Smith on Tuesday. Trump won Mississippi by 20 points in 2016. The Mississippi Senate special election will be held Nov. 6.<doc-sep>Corrections and clarifications: This version clarifies how many African-Americans are in the Senate. WASHINGTON – Mike Espy is traveling across Mississippi, talking to voters at Rotary Clubs, churches and union halls. Mississippi isn't the only place he's campaigning. The Democrat is crisscrossing the country, trying to convince donors and power brokers from New York to Chicago to contribute to his long-shot bid to become the first African-American senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction. Raising money out of state is crucial for many candidates, but it’s even more critical for Espy, whose core supporters in Mississippi's rural communities lack the deep pockets to help him mount a robust challenge to his two Republican rivals. “I don’t have any choice but to go to those havens and those venues of people who are probably going to be Democrats, who are likely to find resonance with my approach and give to me politically,” Espy said. Some political observers said Espy has a shot, but it’s an uphill battle in the ruby-red state, and his chances largely depend on boosting African-American turnout and capitalizing on the fierce battle between his Republican opponents. “I hate to put a percentage on it, but I think it’s reasonable to discuss – there is a path forward for Espy to score an upset,” said Nathan Shrader, co-chair of Millsaps College Political Science Department. “If he can boost traditional Democratic turnout to look more like a presidential-year turnout than a midterm, then he’s in this thing.” Espy, a former congressman and U.S. secretary of agriculture under the Clinton administration, is running in a special election to replace Republican Thad Cochran, who retired in April. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who was appointed to fill Cochran’s unexpired term, and state Republican Sen. Chris McDaniel are the other top contenders. The nonpartisan contest Nov. 6 is likely to go to a runoff between the top two vote getters Nov. 27. Espy said his campaign got a boost from the wins of other African-American Democrats in statewide races, including the gubernatorial bid of Stacey Abrams in Georgia. It also helped that in neighboring Alabama, Doug Jones pulled off an upset last December to become the first Democrat in 25 years to represent the state in the U.S. Senate. “We’re in a time when Republicans can’t take a lot for granted, particularly because if Democrats can win a Senate race in Alabama, they can hypothetically win one in Mississippi,’’ Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said. “The race is getting attention and probably merits attention.” Espy is taking advantage of that attention, traveling to Chicago and New York City for fundraisers and returning this week to Washington, where he will meet with potential donors in a supporter’s living room. Espy said it’s hard to raise the money he needs in Mississippi, where the 19.8 percent poverty rate is the highest in the country. He hopes to raise at least $3 million. By the end of June, he had collected $408,236 and had $281,000 in his coffers, according to the Federal Election Commission. Hyde-Smith had $1.4 million, and McDaniel trailed with $156,054. Espy said fundraising picked up in the past month “as people see that the Democrats are doing better in Senate races around the country, as people begin to feel the urgency of the fact that control of the Senate just might depend on the results of this race.” Espy asked Jones for campaign tips when they crossed paths this summer. “I picked his very fertile brain, and I learned a lot from him, and I’ve hired a lot of his people,” Espy said. Espy’s team includes Joe Trippi as media adviser and Rich McDaniel to handle his get-out-the-vote strategy. Despite similarities in their campaigns, Espy said there are differences. He said Mississippi has 13,000 more registered black voters. “On paper, we start with a better scenario than Doug Jones started with in Alabama,” he said. In Mississippi, blacks make up nearly 38 percent of the population versus 27 percent in Alabama. Black voters helped Jones defeat Republican Roy Moore. Espy not only has to convince blacks to support him, but, like Jones, must appeal to whites. Espy said he talks about issues important to all Mississippians, including access to affordable health care. “It’s not a hard sell because they all want the same thing whether you’re African-American or white or you’re concerned about rural hospitals closing,” he said. Jones, who spoke this year at a Mississippi Democratic Party event, said Espy can win. “The same energy that we saw in Alabama I’ve seen in Mississippi,” he said. “Mike starts out with a really strong base. It’s just a question of engagement and getting folks out.” Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Lucien Smith said there won't be an Alabama-style upset. “I’m about as likely to grow wings and fly as Democrats are to win a Senate seat in Mississippi,” he said. Smith said the party will unite behind whichever Republican makes the runoff. “We will fight till the last dog dies to make sure they win,” he said. McDaniel said pundits give Espy far more of a chance than he really has. “Mr. Espy was part of the Clinton administration, and that, in and of itself, is going to disqualify him for a majority of people in Mississippi,'' he said. Hyde-Smith's campaign got a boost in August when Trump, who is popular in Mississippi, endorsed her. Trump plans to stump for Hyde-Smith at a rally Tuesday in Southaven, Mississippi. If elected, Hyde-Smith would be the first woman elected to represent Mississippi in Congress. Hyde-Smith, who served as state agriculture commissioner, said her approach is "full steam ahead and staying on my priorities and my accomplishments and attributes and successes.” Some high-profile Democrats have campaigned with Espy, including former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick last weekend. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, one of three African-Americans in the Senate, was there in July. Booker also stumped with Jones. Eric Holder, former attorney general under President Barack Obama, said he will help Espy. Espy said national Democrats can help by raising money. “I really don’t need anyone to come to Mississippi to generate a vote for me,” he said. “We’re going to do pretty well already because I have a 94 percent name recognition in Mississippi. So it’s better for me to try to raise money outside, and that’s what we’re doing.” The Congressional Black Caucus' PAC contributed $5,000 to Espy's campaign. “We feel very good about his chances,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who, along with Booker, introduced Espy to the CBC. "He’s working hard and raising the money necessary to become a viable candidate.” Mississippi Democratic Party Chairman Bobby Moak said the national party stepped up support. “We’ve probably got the best line of communication with the DNC (Democratic National Committee) since I’ve been aware of the Mississippi Democratic Party,” he said. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it’s monitoring Espy’s race but won’t say how much it plans to invest. Jones said national Democrats helped with his campaign but noted he competed in a special election after other races were over. “There wasn’t a lot of competition,” he said. “Now you’ve got 10 Democrats that are up … and about four or five of those are very close. We got to keep those that we have.” A PAC associated with Minority Senate Leader Charles Schumer of New York contributed $10,000 to Espy's campaign. “I’m asking for more and more every day,'' Espy said of national Democrats. "I can’t make them do anything. I just can be the best candidate that I can be and run the best campaign that I can run, and if they’re monitoring it and they feel good about it, then I think that they’ll do more." More:2018 midterms: GOP sees opportunity in Minnesota Trump country, despite an otherwise brutal House map More:Midterms: How can election groups get out the vote when just half of Americans say process is 'fair and open'? More:Trouble for Trump? Poll shows midterm election edge for Democrats and female candidates<doc-sep>“We are a state in need of uplift in a ubiquitous way,” he said. “A state like Mississippi that is moving toward the second decade of the 21st century has to be a state that the world sees as moving forward, and symbols are a good part of that, so I’ll be sort of a globalized symbol for new Mississippi.”<doc-sep>
President Trump is rallying in Mississippi Tuesday evening in support of Republican Senate candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith. Both Senate seats in Mississippi have elections this year; Republican Sen. Roger Wicker is up for re-election, and Hyde-Smith is seeking victory in a special election, after she was chosen by Gov. Phil Bryant in March to fill Sen. Thad Cochran's seat after he retired. The special election will be held on Nov. 6, which is also Election Day throughout the country. It is a runoff election, meaning that if none of the four candidates receive over 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote getters will advance to another special election later in the year. Party labels do not appear on the ballot. Whoever wins will then serve through the remainder of Cochran's term, which ends in 2021. Hyde-Smith's victory is no sure thing, since she is facing a challenge from the right by another Republican candidate, Chris McDaniel, and Democrats have put forward a surprisingly strong candidate in former Rep. Mike Espy, who was the agriculture secretary during the Clinton administration. McDaniel unsuccessfully challenged Cochran in the 2014 Republican primary, and was planning on running against Wicker in the 2018 election. However, when Cochran stepped down, McDaniel switched races. McDaniel is a controversial figure nationally, but he has a solid base of support in Mississippi. He gained national attention as a nationally-syndicated conservative talk radio host in the mid-2000s, until he was elected to the state Senate in 2008. In his broadcasts, he accused the Democratic Party of being the "sex on demand, the party that supports the homosexual agenda." He has also said "I'm not even sure Janet Reno was a woman," referring to the Clinton administration's attorney general. McDaniels' archived show website lists the League of the South, a pro-secessionist website, as one of his favorite sites. While Hyde-Smith is far from moderate -- FiveThirtyEight reports that she votes in line with Mr. Trump 100 percent of the time -- she is not as far to the right as McDaniel. Although he lost to Cochran in 2014, it was by a narrow margin -- Cochran led him with 51 percent to 49 percent. McDaniel's presence in the special election race could divide the Republican vote in the state, even with Mr. Trump endorsing his opponent in August. .@cindyhydesmith has helped me put America First! She’s strong on the Wall, is helping me create Jobs, loves our Vets and fights for our conservative judges... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 23, 2018 The divided Republican electorate could benefit Espy. Espy may have a slight advantage over Southern Democrats who have run in the past few cycles, given that he is running in a year that voter enthusiasm among Democrats has been strong. Democrat Doug Jones also won a Senate special election race in neighboring Alabama in 2017, showing that a Democrat could win statewide in the deep South. Of course, neither Hyde-Smith nor McDaniel has been accused of sexual misconduct, as Jones' opponent Roy Moore was, but the divided Republican race could have the same net effect for Espy. Mississippi is also more Democratic than Alabama; Mr. Trump won Alabama by 28 points in 2016, and by 18 points in Mississippi. If elected, Espy would also be the first black senator to represent Mississippi since the Reconstruction era. Nearly 40 percent of the population in Mississippi is African American, a bloc which tends to vote for Democrats. Jones won in 2017 in large part because of high turnout from black voters -- he garnered support from 96 percent of black voters, and 98 percent of black women. African Americans made up 29 percent of voters total in 2017, a slightly higher percentage than voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Espy could benefit from the enthusiasm of black voters and newly energized Democrats, as well as the divisions within the Republican Party. An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll published Tuesday found that Espy is leading Hyde-Smith by a narrow margin, with 25 percent support among registered voters, compared to 24 percent support for Hyde-Smith. McDaniel has 19 percent support, while another Democratic candidate, Tobey Bartee, has 4 percent support. Twenty-seven percent of registered voters are undecided, according to the poll. The CBS News Battleground Tracker rates the race as "likely Republican."