text: Figure 2: Despite uncertainties in the timings of reaching specific warming levels (2, 4 and 6°C) - demonstrated by the bands of uncertainty - even in the most conservative scenario (RCP2.6) living is a >2°C world by the end of the 21st century is a very real possibility.</p><br /><br /> <p>Global-mean surface warming by the end of this century (2081-2100) is likely to exceed 1.5 °C relative to 1850–1900 for all RCPs except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. The numbers on the graph indicate the number of models used to produce the projections (clockwise from left: 42, 39, 32). NB: the global warming shown here is relative to 1985-2005, whereas the 2C target (and HELIX’s 2, 4 and 6C Specific Warming Levels) are relative to pre-industrial, which was about 0.6C cooler than 1985-2005. Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014.</p><br /><br /> <p