Scott Walker, who ended his campaign in September, was the odds-on favorite in neighboring Iowa: In weekly surveys from mid-April through the end of June, Walker was picked as the winner of the Iowa caucuses by more than 70 percent of Republican insiders. In New Hampshire, Bush was picked by two-thirds of insiders over the same time period.
– Donald Trump's antics last week, including attacks on a disabled reporter and questionable recollections of 9/11, may have been the last straw for some supporters, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests. The poll put his support at 31% for the week ending on Nov. 27, down from 43% a week earlier, marking Trump's biggest poll drop since he became the front-runner in July, though Ben Carson isn't closing the gap: His numbers have also dropped and he is now a distant second at 15%, according to the poll, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tied for third at 8% apiece and Jeb Bush fifth at 7%. But even with the latest fall, Trump's staying power has surprised Republican insiders, who now admit that he could win early voting states including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. "I do not think the media or the party establishment have a real grasp on how deep the anger and frustration is around the country," a South Carolina Republican tells Politico. "I still do not know if he can sustain it into the New Year—but after the Paris attacks, his stance on illegal immigration and unverified people coming into our nation has real impact." (Four GOP rivals are getting equal time from NBC for Trump's Saturday Night Live appearance.)