 NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - More frequent heat waves and rising temperatures due to global warming may ground up to a third of airplanes worldwide during hot days in decades to come with some airports in New York and Dubai likely to be hard hit, a study showed on Thursday. During the hottest part of the day, 10 to 30 percent of planes will have to offload cargo or people, according to a new study by graduate student Ethan Coffell and climate scientist Radley Horton at Columbia University. But a Boeing 777-300 departing from Dubai at the time of the daily highest temperature may be weight-restricted about 55 percent of the time according to the study, which appears today in the journal Climactic Science. "Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airline and impact aviation operations around the world," said lead author Ethan Coffel, a Columbia University PhD. Airlines may increasingly be forced to cut their loads of passengers, cargo or fuel in order to take off safely because warming air lessens the ability of airplane wings to generate lift, according to U.S. researchers. Worldwide, average temperatures are expected to climb some 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 Celsius) by 2100, researchers said. But that is only part of the story; heat waves will probably become more prevalent, with annual maximum daily temperatures at airports worldwide projected to go up 4 to 8 degrees C (7.2 to 14.4 F) by 2080, according to the study. Heat waves aren’t the only problem facing the aviation industry as the Earth’s climate changes rapidly. But a handful of studies have warned that warming climate may increase dangerous turbulence along major air routes, and head winds that could lengthen travel times. In 2015, they published a smaller-scale paper, predicting up to four times more future temperature-related takeoff problems for the common Boeing 737-800 at Phoenix, as well as Denver, New York's LaGuardia and Washington's Ronald Reagan. The phenomenon could force the aviation industry to brace for thinner profit margins, the authors said. For an average aircraft operating today, a 4 percent weight reduction would mean roughly 12 or 13 fewer passengers on an average 160-seat craft. This does not count the major logistical and economic effects of delays and cancellations that can instantly ripple from one air hub to another, said Horton. Airports likely to be most affected according to the researchers' appraisal of 19 major airports include New York's LaGuardia, due to short runways, and Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates, because of scorching heat. Airports probably less affected because they are in temperate regions and have long runways include New York's JFK, London Heathrow and Paris's Charles de Gaulle.
– Remember in June when it got too hot for planes to take off in Phoenix? A new study suggests stories like that will become quite common in the not-too-distant future. Via Reuters, the study published in Climatic Change estimates that rising temperatures could leave up to one-third of planes grounded during heat waves in the coming decades. The problem centers around the wings’ capacity for lift, which is lessened in warmer conditions. By 2100, worldwide average temperatures are expected to rise by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. To safely take off, airlines would need to make adjustments during the hottest part of the day, with 10% to 30% of planes affected. Full flights will either stay grounded until conditions cool down or lighten their loads by removing fuel, cargo, or passengers, per a release at EurekAlert. Think 12 to 13 people asked to leave a 160-person passenger plane. "Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost," one of the study’s lead authors says. Wired reports that among the airports studied, New York’s LaGuardia and Washington’s Reagan-National fared poorly because of short runways, as did Dubai International Airport, where extreme heat could force reduced loads up to 55% of the time during peak temperatures. Better news: New York's JFK wouldn't be much affected. Delayed departures won't be the only hassle. Scientists say severe turbulence would become more common. “I’ve yet to see a benefit of climate change to aviation,” says atmospheric scientist Paul Williams, who believes it’s high time for the airline industry to prepare and adapt. (An essay at New York provided a decidedly bleak outlook on climate change.)