The Obama and Romney campaigns anticipate little movement in national polls before the first debate on Oct. 3, which both see as the most important day of this campaign. On Saturday, Mr. Obama extended his advantage to three points from two points in the Gallup national tracking poll, and to four points from two in an online survey conducted by Ipsos. Where the two camps differ — and differ starkly — is on their theories of the case for navigating the final nine weeks. They also see eye to eye on their belief that the election will come down to whether Romney can persuade voters he understands the problems of ordinary people and that his solutions are at least marginally better for turning things around economically. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.
– President Obama's DNC acceptance speech may have inspired more yawns than fervor, but the latest polls are showing him a clear advantage, especially in several key swing states, reports Politico. Republican officials admit that their in-house tracking polls show Obama with a high-single-digits lead in crucial battleground state Ohio. While Mitt Romney can win the presidency without Ohio, it would be very tough. “Their map has many more routes to victory,” said a leading Republican official. The biggest worry for Democrats at this point is that the 6% to 8% of voters who are still undecided are overwhelmingly white, middle-aged, and economically stressed—bad demographics for Obama. But with polls showing a small but clear bounce for Obama, the president is now a "reasonably clear favorite," writes Nate Silver at the New York Times. Obama is now leading by four percentage points in Gallup's national tracking poll, two in Rasmussen's, four in Ipsos', and three in RAND's polling. Campaign officials say they don't expect many big changes over the next couple of weeks, as attention turns to Oct. 3 and the first presidential debate.