To help simplify this decision process, Michael Dillon of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, Calif., conducted mathematical analyses based on existing data on the threats induced by small-scale nuclear explosions to streamline rules people can abide by to protect themselves from fallout. Through his analyses, Dillon determined that people within poor-quality shelters can reduce radiation poisoning by staying within those shelters for only up to 30 minutes after the detonation before seeking out adequate shelter, as long as that shelter is reachable within 15 minutes. If, however, the better shelter is only five minutes away, individuals should move there immediately and forego the closer but unsafe buildings altogether, he wrote.
– Good news: A mathematical model has been created that could help save your life in the event that your city is hit by a nuclear bomb. Scientist Michael Dillon's model, published Tuesday, is about reducing radiation risk from the bomb's fallout, and calculates "optimal shelter exit time." The longstanding advice has been to immediately seek shelter, ideally underground, if a bomb hits. But there is better and worse shelter—the latter being "lightweight" buildings (such as ones made of wood) or ones without basements; the AFP reports more than 20% of US homes fall into the worse category. Here is Dillon's determination for people living within 20 miles of a low-yield nuclear blast, meaning one a bit smaller than Hiroshima: If it would take five minutes or less to reach better shelter (that concrete basement, or the center of a large building, like a big office, reports LiveScience), bypass the more immediate shelter and go there straight away. If better shelter is 15 minutes away, stay in the worse shelter for up to 30 minutes, then head out. As for the transit period, don't waste time worrying about protecting your body from the radiation, he says, which can mostly be rinsed off once you get to your shelter. The findings are actually intended for emergency planning officials, who can make use of the findings when designing "an optimal low-yield nuclear detonation response strategy," writes Dillon, who works at California's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.