Now, research suggests that at least some of Darwin’s famous finches might soon be driven to extinction by parasitic flies introduced to them by humans in the 1960s. In a study that will be published December 18 in the Journal of Applied Ecology, University of Utah researchers forecast turbulent flying ahead for the medium ground finch (Geospiza fortis), one of the most common of the dozen-plus species of Darwin's finch. They're also known as Galapagos finches, for the islands they call home.) The fly in question is the nest fly Philornis downsi, first documented in birds’ nests in the Galapagos in 1997. Clayton and his team used five years of field data to predict the species’ long-term viability and found that, in two out of three scenarios, medium ground finches could be gone within the next century. The team ran simulations based around three broad future scenarios: “good” years likely to come, where conditions such as weather and food supply were conducive to successful breeding; “bad” years ahead; and neutral years, where both bad and good conditions were equally likely. The "bad" model predicted extinction in anywhere from 43 to 57 years, while the "neutral" model had the bird disappearing in 65 to 95 years. “This is like a really bad horror flick,” senior author Dale Clayton, an ecologist and parasite specialist at the University of Utah, says with a rueful laugh. If a species of Darwin's finch as common as the medium ground finch can face extinction because of the nest fly, "then the less common species, which have the same fly problem, are likely at risk as well," Clayton said in a release. The team estimates that if nest fly infestations were reduced by just 40 percent, the birds won’t go extinct. Use of insecticides, introduction of fly-parasitizing wasps, breeding of sterile male nest flies to suppress egg production, and even the hand-rearing of at-risk chicks could each help improve matters, the scientists said. “The babies can’t withstand even one night with these parasites.” The susceptibility of the baby finches has something to do with their size—Clayton compares the newly-hatched birds to peanut M&M's—and their immune responses. And don’t underestimate evolution, either: Clayton says there’s an outside chance the finches could still develop their own defenses against the flies. But at this point, it’s just an arms race.” 
 
 Luckily, there are ways that the finches could beat both P. downsi and time.
– Charles Darwin's finches of the Galapagos Islands—renowned as a poster child for speciation (that's "the process by which new species arise," explains Smithsonian)—may not be able to evolve fast enough to stave off extinction, according to a study published last week in the Journal of Applied Ecology. The medium ground finches of Santa Cruz Island are having their newly hatched babies decimated by Philornis downsi, a parasitic nest fly humans brought to the islands half a century ago. The flies lay their eggs inside the birds' nests, and the hatching maggots feed on the young birds. "This is like a really bad horror flick," study author Dale Clayton says. "The babies can't withstand even one night with these parasites." According to Discovery News, the flies were first spotted in the finches' nests in 1997. Since then, the population has been growing, and none of the Galapagos Islands is free of the flies. Researchers looked at five years of field research on the medium ground finches specifically on Santa Cruz and came up with three scenarios—good, bad, and neutral—based on breeding, weather, and food supplies, Discovery News reports. In both the bad and neutral scenarios, the finches have less than 100 years before they're extinct. According to Smithsonian, the same fate is likely facing some of the other 14 species of Darwin's finches. "If Darwin's finches go extinct, it will be because people brought this fly to the islands," Clayton says. "If the fly had gotten to the island more gradually, perhaps, maybe the birds would have had more time to adapt." Researchers believe a 40% reduction of nest infestations could save the finches and are looking at options to accomplish that, Discovery News reports. (A frog named for Darwin has already gone extinct.)