China has in recent days and weeks ramped up its activity around the Scarborough Shoal, with Philippines’ Defense Ministry releasing pictures Wednesday showing what it said were Chinese boats near the chain of rocks and reefs just 230 km (140 miles) from the Philippine coast. On Wednesday, the Philippines released what it says are surveillance pictures of Chinese coast guard ships and barges at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, an apparent attempt to publicize its concerns before ASEAN leaders met with Chinese Premier Li Kequiang in Vientiane. “I recognize this raises tensions but I also look forward to discussing how we can constructively move forward together to lower tensions and promote diplomacy and stability.”

The verdict by an international tribunal in The Hague said China’s claims to most of the waters—through which $5 trillion in global shipping trade passes annually—had no legal basis. Photo courtesy Philippine Department of Defense

Tensions have escalated sharply in recent years as China has built islands on reefs and islets in the Spratlys archipelago – another strategically important location – that are capable of supporting military operations. The dispute has raised fears of military confrontation between the world’s superpowers, with China determined to cement control of the strategically vital waters despite a July verdict that its claims have no legal basis. VIENTIANE: US President Barack Obama warned Beijing Thursday it could not ignore a tribunal’s ruling rejecting its sweeping claims to the South China Sea, driving tensions higher in a territorial row that threatens regional security. But, hours before the meeting, the Philippines' defence ministry released photographs and a map showing what it said was an increased number of Chinese vessels near Scarborough Shoal, which China seized after a standoff in 2012. “Should China build up the shoal with radars, missiles and an airstrip, it would enhance China’s anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities as well as improve its power-projection capabilities in the region, particularly vis-a-vis the U.S.”

Hornung said this matters because a new base that forms a strategic triangle with its facilities and runways in the Paracels and Spratlys would bring the entire region under Chinese radar, missile and air coverage — effectively creating a “Chinese lake.”

“This would enable China to control the sea lines of communication, monitor foreign naval and air activities, enforce a South China Sea air defense identification zone and could work to blunt America’s freedom of action in times of conflict. China was prepared to initiate land-reclamation at Scarborough in March, according to a Financial Times report citing current and former U.S. officials, but backed down after U.S. President Barack Obama warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping of serious consequences if it began dredging work there. “Because the Philippines is a treaty ally of the U.S., if China can act freely with no U.S. response beyond a diplomatic protest, its credibility as an ally will be under severe stress,” said Hornung. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was set to ask Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at Wednesday’s summit whether the vessels were on another island-making mission on the Scarborough, just a few hundred kilometers from Philippine military bases hosting U.S. troops. Officials said talks between Southeast Asian leaders and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang went smoothly and there was no tension over a recent ruling by an arbitration court in The Hague that invalidated China's claims to the waterway. Obama was right to respond to Duterte's intemperate babbling at an Asian summit in Laos by canceling a bilateral meeting with the Philippine leader, who now says he regretted what he said. Duterte launched a tirade against Obama on Monday after being told the US president planned to raise concerns about a war on crime in the Philippines that has claimed 3,000 lives in just over two months.
The Duterte administration accuses China of building a "secret island" on the Scarborough Shoal.