Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Friday. In the Atlantic, this means: In the eastern and central Pacific:
• 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity
• 70 percent chance of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones in central Pacific, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes

According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s just a 35 percent chance that this hurricane season will be ‘near-normal,’ and far less likelihood (20%) that activity will be below-normal. NOAA forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). "Regardless of how many storms develop this year, it only takes one to disrupt our lives," said acting FEMA administrator Robert J. Fenton, Jr., who recommended the following preparedness steps:The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.NOAA will update this outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season. ‘We don’t forecast how many storms might make landfall, because this far in advance, we really can’t predict what atmospheric conditions will be in place to steer the individual storms.’

In April, a rare pre-season storm dubbed ‘Arlene’ formed over the eastern Atlantic. "The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says warm ocean waters could fuel an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast calls for 11 to 17 named storms with five to nine hurricanes, warmer-than-average waters across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a weak or nonexistent El Niño.