Just like the national trend, more Montanans are choosing to request absentee ballots. So while the raw numbers show more absentee voters already, the reality is that a smaller percentage of the total absentee ballots out there have been returned. In the 2014 midterm, 88 percent of the absentee ballots were returned. Keep in mind that in Montana, voters can deliver their absentee ballots on Election Day. How many get delivered is a key question, and predicting that in a special election can be tricky.
Gianforte wins the election with over 50% of the vote to Quist's 44%. The political fallout if any is unknown as many voters cast unchangable absentee ballots before the incident took place.