If Nietan announces that members of Germany’s centre-left party have voted against a coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the country will be plunged into political chaos and questions will arise over the future of a chancellor who can no longer organise political alliances. If, as expected, Nietan reports a yes vote, it will end five months of political paralysis in Europe’s largest economy, but also pile pressure on the Social Democrats to reverse the party’s freefall in the polls and stop the erosion of one of the two central pillars of Germany’s postwar order. Asked in an interview with daily Die Welt if an SPD‘no’ vote would result in a national crisis, Weil said:“No, I wouldn’t go that far, but many people’s confidence in our political system would erode even further.”

The SPD’s Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after suffering a battering in last September’s election. The SPD initially planned to go into opposition after a disastrous result in September's election, but agreed to negotiate with Merkel's conservatives after talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November. FDP leader Christian Lindner told the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain, that new elections would be the best solution if SPD members voted‘no.’ He ruled out revisiting a three-way coalition, given the platforms of the parties involved. He said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis if Merkel was forced to form a minority government, but added:“Such a government would probably only last a few months anyway.”

Manfred Weber, deputy leader of the CSU Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, also backed new elections if SPD members rejected another‘grand coalition,’ arguing that a minority government would impair Germany’s standing in Europe.
Postal ballots of the 2018 SPD coalition party member vote are due. The vote will determine if the SPD is allowed to form a coalition with Angela Merkel's CDU.