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The final cost to the UK of leaving the European Union could nudge £40 billion, above the £35 billion to £39 billion so-called Brexit bill suggested by Prime Minister Theresa May’s government. Either that or they are Brexiteers filling some of top Cabinet jobs who feel obliged to defend the many lies that were told during the referendum.The latest blow to the 'better-off' myth comes in the Guardian , which reports that the cost of the Brexit divorce bill for the UK could be billions higher than the £35bn-£39bn figure put forward by Theresa May.They refer to a National Audit Office (NAO) report which has warned that the UK could pay an extra £3bn more in budget contributions as well as an additional £2.9bn to the European Development Fund. Auditors have concluded that the Treasury’s estimate includes £7.2bn of receipts which will go directly to the private sector and not to the government’s accounts:I didn't see any of that on the side of a bus in June 2016. The report states: “Relatively small changes to some assumptions about future events could push the cost outside of HM Treasury’s £35 billion to £39 billion range.”

How much the UK contributes to the EU annual budgets in 2019 and 2020 will be calculated on the basis of the UK’s future economic outlook, which will also partly determine Britain’s share of outstanding commitments and liabilities after 2020, the report states. Those contributions also partly determine how much the UK will pay towards outstanding liabilities and commitments after 2020
• How much the UK will have to pay into the EU pension pot is also based on assumptions about life-expectancy, salary increases and valuation estimates

"Relatively small changes to some of these assumptions would cause HM Treasury's central estimate to be outside its £35bn to £39bn range," the report says. The total cost of the settlement cannot be defined until there is greater certainty around future events such as: the UK’s economic performance in 2019 and 2020; how much EU funding UK organisations will continue to receive after the UK leaves; the future cost of the EU pension liability; and potential changes to the exchange rate, as the UK will settle its payments in euros. However, the NAO report said the Treasury and EU “consider the risk of these liabilities crystallising to be remote.”

The UK will also pay £2.9 billion to the UK European Development Fund for overseas aid which is not featured in the exit settlement estimate because the fund was not established under EU treaties. The value of those payments will vary according to how the U.K. economy performs in relation to the rest of the EU
• Economic performance will over the next two years will also affect Britain’s share of EU liabilities after 2020
• Estimates of future pension liabilities for EU officials are based on assumptions on mortality rates and future salary increases, all of which may turn out differently
• The EU can request up to five months of budget payments in the first three months of a calendar year, and Treasury assumptions are based on this happening in the first quarter of 2019, leading up to the scheduled Brexit day of March 29. What was said

Amyas Morse, the head of the NAO, said in a statement:

We have reviewed the Treasury’s estimate of how much the UK will pay the EU under the draft withdrawal agreement. If not, taxpayers will feel we are being sold a raw deal.”

Nicky Morgan, chairwoman of the Commons Treasury Committee which asked the NAO to look at the issue, said: “It has judged that the Government’s estimate of the UK’s withdrawal payment to the EU is “reasonable”, but it appears to be shrouded in uncertainty.
The UK Audit Office rejects a Treasury estimate of the cost of leaving the European Union that was repeated by Prime Minister Theresa May. Rather than the official £35–39 billion estimate, the watchdog says that figure misleadingly included £7.2 billion earmarked directly for private hands and did not include up to £3 billion in budget contributions and £2.9 billion in European Development Fund payments.