London ( CNN ) -- Tensions between Turkey and Israel worsened Thursday when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country would follow aid ships to Gaza trying to break the Israeli blockade . It comes as Israeli officials said Turkey had expelled three diplomats from the Turkish capital of Ankara . Relations between the two countries have deteriorated since a raid on a Turkish ship carrying aid to Gaza last year when Israeli commandos killed eight Turks and one Turkish American . A United Nations investigation into the incident found that the Israeli blockade of Gaza is a `` legitimate security measure '' in compliance with international law , but it said that Israel had used `` excessive and unreasonable '' force . Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the recent increase in tensions between the two countries `` was not our choice '' but added that Israel had the right to defend its coast and to prevent smugglers and flotillas reaching the Gaza Strip . CNN asked Fadi Hakura , Associate Fellow and Manager of the Turkey Project at Chatham House in London -- a British institute for the independent analysis of international issues -- for his take on Turkey 's relationship with Israel . What led to the souring of relations between Turkey and Israel ? `` Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel in March 1949 . Since then , bilateral relations reflected the regional conditions in the Middle East . As the Middle East peace process blossomed in the 1990s , both countries enjoyed close political , economic and military ties . `` However , bilateral relations deteriorated after Israel 's military operations in Gaza . They took a turn for the worse when Israeli naval commandos intercepted the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara en route to breach the Israeli blockade of Gaza . That incident led to the deaths of eight Turks and one Turkish-American . `` Israel refused Turkey 's demand for an apology but agreed to express regret and pay compensation for the Mavi Marmara victims . '' How serious is the pledge to escort aid ships ? `` The Turkish prime minister has threatened to send naval warships to escort future civilian aid ships heading to Gaza . So far , Turkey seems to be sabre-rattling . But the risk of a naval confrontation between Israel and Turkey in the future can not be totally discounted . '' How does this affect relations between the two countries ? `` Turkey 's downgrading of diplomatic relations with Israel signals a major escalation of Turkish-Israeli tensions with Israel . Thus far , Israel 's response to the Turkish sanctions has been muted but may react if Turkey raises the stakes further . '' Who has the most to lose ? `` Turkey 's suspension of military ties with Israel will not have an immediate impact since there are no major outstanding defence contracts or joint military exercises between both countries . `` A more immediate impact is the loss of intelligence-sharing between Israel and Turkey , but it is likely the U.S. will try to minimize the implications on intelligence cooperation . `` Israel does not wish to lose access to Turkey 's $ 700 billion economy , one of the largest in the Middle East . `` Similarly , Turkey is not keen for the time being to diminish business opportunities and the web of private sector interests with Israel at a time of challenging economic conditions . `` For example , the northwestern province of Bursa has started manufacturing the Fluence Z.E. , an electric car from Renault and Nissan , thanks to a deal signed with the Israeli company Better Place . `` However , the escalation of tensions may eventually undermine bilateral trade beyond the loss of Israeli tourism to Turkey and defence deals between both countries . '' Is Erdogan playing to a home audience and if so why ? `` Prime Minister Erdogan is keen to portray Turkey as a leader in the Middle East and the Muslim world . His self-confidence has grown immeasurably since winning a decisive victory in the general elections of June 2011 . Part of his popularity stems from an assertive and confrontational attitude towards Israel . '' What are the regional implications ? `` Turkey 's tensions with Israel come at time of uprisings in Egypt , Libya and Syria . In the short term , Prime Minister Erdogan 's popularity among Arabs and Muslims may experience a temporary surge . `` Longer term , if the U.S. is successful in managing the fallout in Israeli-Turkish relations , then regional implications will be contained . '' Has the 'Arab Spring ' had a bearing on this relationship ? `` The Turkey-Israel relations predated the so-called Arab Spring . They were on a downward spiral since the Israeli military intervention in Gaza . '' What about Turkey 's relationship with the European Union -- does this affect its desire to join the EU ? `` Turkey 's confrontation with Israel has no bearing on its already fractious and challenging relationship with the EU . German and French opposition to Turkish aspirations to join the EU has brought the process to a standstill . Turkey 's chances of membership looked slim prior to the recent escalation of tensions with Israel . ''
Nissan report found Turkish blockade of Gaza `` legitimate '' but was critical of `` excessive force '' Fadi Hakura says bilateral relations suffered as a result of military action in Gaza . He believes the Israeli prime minister 's popularity partly stems from his stance on U.S. . Hakura says if the Gaza manages the situation , then regional implications can be contained .