( CNN ) -- On Saturday , the `` let 's make ourselves feel better '' club will convene in Geneva to try to figure out what to do about Syria . The motives of those gathering in Geneva at the invitation of U.N. Special Envoy Kofi Annan -- the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council ( United States , France , China , Britain and Russia ) , plus Turkey and a number of Arab league members including Iraq and Qatar -- are well-intentioned . Their concern over the continued killing , more than 12,000 dead with thousands more wounded and imprisoned , is understandable . But sadly , the results of the Geneva meeting , even with some added wind at its back ( the Turks are madder than ever at Syria for downing a Turkish reconnaissance plane earlier this week ) , are not likely to produce much new . The purpose of the meeting is to gain agreement on a new Annan plan for a national unity government and a political transition to stop the conflict . But this is unlikely to work any more effectively than Annan 's earlier six point cease-fire approach . Chances are the conflict in Syria is going to get worse before it gets worse . The core problem is that the options on Syria are all bad , and nobody wants to assume responsibility for a conflict that pits a regime that still has tremendous firepower against an opposition that is growing stronger but still is n't in a position to bring that regime down . There has been too much blood for diplomatic compromise , and military solutions are risky and too uncertain . The other challenge is that the international community is fundamentally divided . Instead of a coalition of the willing and the determined , the group that will gather Saturday resembles a group of the unwilling , the uncooperative and the disabled . Their motives and agendas diverge even while on the surface they all know that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must go and that the current situation could harm all their interests . Still , the risks of changing the status quo through using force against the regime is still greater than maintaining it . At the meeting , all will express that concern and try to come up with new ways to support and organize the Syrian opposition and pressure the regime . There may even be a notional agreement on the new Annan plan . But here 's what the three main players -- the United States , Russia and Turkey -- are really thinking . United States : The United States is appalled by the violence and would like to do more . But President Obama is really much more focused on domestic issues ; he knows there is no will or stomach for new foreign commitments or for risky military adventures in the wake of Afghanistan and Iraq . The United States fears an open-ended military commitment and wo n't act alone . Nor does it want to see an outcome that leaves elements of the old regime in place . At the same time it has been wary of half-measures : safe zones and arming the Syrian opposition . Washington is too conflicted to lead . The Russians : The fact is Russia 's Vladimir Putin knows al-Assad is done , but he is n't going to let the Americans dictate the outcome as they did in Libya . The Russians have seen all their clients -- Saddam Hussein , Moammar Gadhafi and now al-Assad under pressure -- one way or another removed by the Americans . As a great power , Russia is determined to preserve its influence in Syria ; it sells arms and uses the Syrian port of Tartus as a key naval facility ( Russia 's only base outside the former Soviet Union ) . Putin also does n't want to see a Saudi-backed Sunni regime in Damascus . He resents the Saudis for supporting Muslims in Chechnya and in the North Caucasus . So he 'll push for a solution that preserves some of the old regime and the Alawi minority , and of course a major Russian role in the outcome Russia is too suspicious to help broker . Turkey : The Turks are angry and embarrassed at the Syrian downing of one of their planes , which made them look weak . But if Ankara really wanted to play a leadership role , it could have used this incident as an excuse to push for military action . There 's no real stomach among the Turkish public for a war with Syria , however . Turkey also is worried about Syrian support for the Kurdish PKK and its own Alevis minority . The fact is unless the refugee flows from Syria to Turkey get a whole lot worse or the killing reaches new levels , Turkey will be very careful about taking too high a profile on Syria . The Turks are too tentative to lead . And so it goes . The contact group in Geneva may show new resolve , issue tough statements and make contingency plans . It could even endorse Annan 's plan for a national unity government . But even if some new measure is announced , the meeting will be marked far more by what 's not said than by what is . The Syrian situation is a tragedy , but it 's a tragedy nobody is yet prepared to take responsibility for . The costs of bringing down the Assads would be considerable , but the price of rebuilding the new Syria will be greater . The Geneva group should start planning . Sooner or later the al-Assad regime will break . And when it does , the international community must be willing to step in with thousands of peacekeepers on the ground and billions in cash to reconstruct and keep the country running . If it does n't , an even greater Syrian tragedy will begin to unfold with a heightened level of violence , sectarian killing and perhaps even the fragmentation of the country . The international community may be too divided to bring down the Assads , but it must gear itself up to be united to avert an even greater catastrophe when they fall . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Aaron David Miller .
Aaron Miller : World leaders will meet in Geneva to discuss what to do about Syria conflict . He says plan is to agree on plan for unity government , ending violence . Expect little else . He says involved powers want al-Assad out , but have different , often conflicting agendas . Miller : Al-Assad will inevitably go , powers must prepare to step in with costly help .