( CNN ) -- The downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine last week , most likely after being struck with a missile fired by pro-Russian rebel forces , was followed this week by the rebels ' shoot-down of two Su-25 attack aircraft deployed by the Ukrainian Air Force . These incidents reflect a typical pattern in insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations . Air power is often crucial in fighting insurgents , as it has been recently in Ukraine . The Ukrainian air force has made up for the poor performance of Ukrainian ground units by driving rebel forces into retreat . The Su-25 ground-attack planes that were shot down this week were part of a renewed Ukrainian air offensive against rebel positions . Because governments fighting insurgencies often enjoy a monopoly or major advantage in air power , rebel fighters must try to offset this advantage by using surface-to-air missiles , or SAMs , and other air-defense weapons . That is precisely what has been happening recently in Ukraine , where pro-Russian rebels have shot down at least a dozen Ukrainian military aircraft over the past few months . The downing of MH17 was apparently a tragic mistake , not a deliberate attack on a passenger airliner flying at high altitude . The pro-Russian rebels evidently believed the target was a large military transport aircraft , only to realize afterward that they had committed a terrible blunder . Who are Ukraine 's pro-Russia rebels ? But even if the downing of the airliner had been deliberate , it would not have been unprecedented . Indeed , on numerous occasions , insurgents armed by Moscow have deliberately shot down civilian planes . In September 1978 , guerrillas from the Zimbabwean People 's Revolutionary Army shot down an Air Rhodesia passenger airliner using a Soviet-supplied SA-7 shoulder-fired SAM . Dozens were killed in the crash , but 56 passengers survived . The guerrillas methodically hunted down the survivors and killed them ( though a small number evaded death by hiding ) . Five months later , in February 1979 , Zimbabwean guerrillas once again used a Soviet-supplied SA-7 to shoot down an Air Rhodesia passenger aircraft . All the passengers and crew died in the crash . In December 1988 , Polisario Front guerrillas in Morocco used Soviet-supplied missiles to attack two U.S. DC-7 civilian aircraft that were spreading insecticide against a locust infestation . One of the planes crashed , killing all five Americans on board . After the Soviet Union broke apart , the new government in Moscow continued to arm and train insurgent forces , focusing on other former Soviet republics . On three consecutive days in September 1993 , Russian-backed separatist guerrillas in the Abkhazian region of Georgia deliberately attacked Transair Georgian Airways passenger flights , using Russian-supplied shoulder-held SA-7s against two of them in flight and artillery against the third during boarding . A total of 136 people were killed in the three incidents . This record of Soviet and Russian support for insurgents who target civilian aircraft is important to bear in mind when judging the latest crisis over Ukraine . In all these earlier instances from the 1970s through the 1990s , Moscow-backed guerrillas deliberately attacked civilian planes . By contrast , in last week 's downing of MH17 , the likelihood is that the rebels only targeted the passenger aircraft because they thought it was a military plane . No one has yet apologized for the incident , and the pro-Russian forces ' handling of the crash site has been despicable , but the downing was not akin to the deliberate attacks that occurred in earlier years . Many flights soar over conflict zones . Many observers have depicted events in Ukraine , including the MH17 tragedy , as reflecting something peculiar about Russian foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin . But as the 1993 attacks by Abkhazian fighters indicate , Putin 's predecessor Boris Yeltsin often dealt with Russia 's neighbors in a similar manner , seeing them as little more than vassal states . Under both Yeltsin and Putin , Russia has bullied , intimidated , destabilized and violated the sovereignty of its neighbors , especially Georgia , Moldova , Tajikistan , Ukraine , and Kyrgyzstan , whenever they have been led by rulers the Russian authorities dislike . Since 1992 , Russia has consistently supported the entrenchment of authoritarian regimes in neighboring states and opposed upheavals and popular unrest directed against authoritarian rulers . The historical record of Russia 's domineering policy toward other former Soviet republics has often been disregarded in the recent flurry of commentary about Ukraine and MH17 . One observer , writing last week on Forbes.com , declared that the MH17 disaster marked `` the first case of rebels , supplied by a major power with surface-to-air missiles , bringing down a passenger plane . '' That statement is absurd and reflects an underlying ignorance of the long record of Russia 's imperious dealings with its neighbors . When thinking about where things might head now in Ukraine , we need to separate entrenched patterns from what is truly distinctive . Many observers get caught up with the daily twists and turns and fail to consider relevant historical precedents . In each case in the past when Moscow-backed guerrillas deliberately attacked civilian aircraft , the incidents had no lasting impact on the conflicts and did not induce the Kremlin to back down . After the September 1993 attacks that destroyed three Georgian passenger planes , Yeltsin not only maintained his staunch support of the Abkhazian separatists but also deployed thousands of Russian troops in Abkhazia to deter the Georgian government from trying to reclaim it . Over the past week many have predicted that MH17 will be a `` game-changer '' and might even lead to the unraveling of Putin 's regime . The historical record gives us little reason to be confident about such optimistic prognoses . Join us on Facebook.com/CNNOpinion .
Mark Kramer : Russia and its proxies have a history of shooting down civilian aircraft . Kramer : Russia has threatened , violated and violated the rights of its citizens . There is little evidence that this incident , or any in the past , will induce the Kremlin to back down .