( CNN ) -- Sure , there are things at stake in Tuesday 's recall election for governor of Wisconsin . You need to know only a smidgeon about the politics of Republican Gov . Scott Walker and the Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to be aware of that . You need to have paid only passing attention to the political battle that has engulfed Wisconsin for 16 months to know that . If there 's anything that just about everyone in Wisconsin agrees on , it 's that it makes a big difference who is governor and which party controls each house of the legislature . When staunch conservative Walker and Republicans swept to control of the Capitol in Madison , and particularly when Walker launched his drive in February 2011 to render public employee unions all but powerless , no doubt was left that it mattered when Walker beat the liberal-to-moderate Barrett by a 52.3 % to 46.5 % margin in November 2010 . Walker 's fate in Wisconsin comes down to ground game . The changes can be seen not only in the law on employee public unions , but in tax policies , school funding , the strength of the safety net for those in need , environmental regulations , the right to carry concealed weapons and other major issues . But some things are not going to change in the light of Tuesday 's outcome , things that should be kept in mind when it comes to post-election analysis . I 'd suggest five of them : . 1 . The presidential race in Wisconsin . Many will read Tuesday 's outcome as a good sign for the presidential candidate from the party of the winner . I 'm dubious . For one thing , President Barack Obama has done fairly well in recent polls , up 8 percentage points over former Gov . Mitt Romney in a Marquette Law School Poll last week , while Barrett has trailed Walker in almost all recent polls , down 7 percentage points in the same poll . Clearly , some people look at the two races separately . Previously on CNN : My mom is sick of calls from Mitt Romney . Obama and the national Democratic Party have distanced themselves from the recall election . That was glaringly clear when Obama did not make an appearance in Wisconsin , even though he was in next-door Minnesota on Friday and then , Friday night and Saturday , in his hometown of Chicago . It 's a short hop from Chicago to Kenosha , Racine or Milwaukee , all Democratic strongholds where turnout will be key on Tuesday . The most reasonable interpretation for national Democrats keeping their distance is that they see nothing to gain from being visible , especially given polls that suggest a Barrett defeat is likely . The thinking most likely is : If Obama is doing reasonably well in Wisconsin already , why get involved in this acrimonious and probably losing mess ? Wisconsin Democratic leaders have been unhappy with the low level of national party support , but Republicans have been more forthcoming with both money and by sending in GOP stars such as Govs . Chris Christie , Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley . However the recall turns out , leaders of both parties expect the presidential race to be close in Wisconsin . With 10 electoral votes , Wisconsin is n't a big deal , except that it is hard to chart an Obama victory without including Wisconsin . In 2000 and 2004 , the state had razor 's edge wins for Democrats . The 2008 outcome , an easy Obama win , was different . But in some ways , 2008 seems longer ago than 2004 . 2 . The deep well of political anger . Wisconsin is a strong example of how people are pretty fed up , even as they go in almost equal numbers in opposite political directions . The economy , social hot-button issues , cultural issues , economic and racial dynamics -- there are many sources of fuel for the feelings that divide Wisconsin . The demographics of the state make these close to 50-50 issues , but it 's worth pondering how similar the intensity of emotions are on each side of the divide . That anger wo n't be relieved after Tuesday . 3 . The intensity of campaigning . Wisconsin is in the Era of Never Ending Campaigns . In addition to the regularly scheduled November elections for governor and legislative seats , the state has featured a super-close , high spending Supreme Court race in 2011 and waves of recall elections for state senators . Immediately after Tuesday 's recall for governor comes a hot Republican primary in August for an open U.S. Senate seat , followed by the November election , which will include not only the presidential and U.S. Senate voting but elections for half the state Senate and all of the state Assembly . 4 . The dominance of big money . The political wars here have been a remarkable boon to television station revenues . Tens of millions of dollars have been spent on the recall election , much of it coming from out-of-state donors . It 's not just TV and radio . It 's daily mailings to hundreds of thousands of homes , extensive phone banking and robo-calling , and expensive get-out-the-vote efforts , which may prove be the decisive factor . The invasion of big money wo n't end after the recall , given the upcoming elections . 5 . The short supply of civility . With some exceptions -- the era of Sen. Joseph McCarthy in the 1950s comes to mind -- Wisconsin has been known for civil politics . But the polarization of the state has been evident in round after round of polling , just as it is clear to anyone who observes the tenor of campaigning . There is little reason to think the intense and adamant approach to politics will abate after Tuesday . The pendulum swings in Wisconsin politics , and it seems to being swinging faster and farther in recent years . Both the winners and losers Tuesday are almost sure to refuel for more fights ahead , not only at the polls . The next two-year state budget cycle begins in early 2013 . It will be intense , whoever wins . Hostility is going to hang around , and there 's a strong chance political disarray will continue to be its partner . The state song is `` On , Wisconsin . '' Whatever happens Tuesday , the case is likely to get stronger for making it Tom Petty 's `` I Wo n't Back Down . '' The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Alan J. Borsuk .
Alan Borsuk : Wisconsin residents to decide recall of conservative Gov . Scott Walker . Borsuk : Walker , who weakened public worker unions , changed the politics of Wisconsin . Borsuk : Whoever wins , money and bad tempers will dominate as election season intensifies . Tumultuous presidential , state , Senate elections and budget fights all ahead , he says .