Simferopol , Crimea ( CNN ) -- Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist , grabbing at chances to poke the West in the eye , or a clever strategist with the longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia ? Is he simply riding a tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea ? Is he a rational actor aware of the delicate balances within the international system , or as one observer put it , `` drunk on power '' and oblivious to sanctions ? These are the questions preoccupying western governments and Russia 's neighbors , after the swift annexation of Crimea and Russian military maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border . There were some tantalizing clues in Putin 's pugnacious speech to the Duma this week . He described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate -- because it had separated Russians . `` The Russian nation became one of the biggest , if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders , '' he said . `` It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realized that it was not simply robbed , it was plundered . '' He went on to say , `` if you compress the spring all the way to its limit , it will snap back hard . '' Heady , populist rhetoric -- but it has propelled the Russian President to his highest approval rating -- 71 % -- in recent years , according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center . Putin said Russia had no intention of violating Ukraine 's sovereignty ( beyond the 5 % of its territory it has absorbed this week . ) `` Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia , shouting that other regions will follow Crimea , '' he told Ukrainians . But he then said this : `` It should be above all in Ukraine 's own interest to ensure that these people 's rights and interests are fully protected . This is the guarantee of Ukraine 's state stability and territorial integrity . '' In other words , if the Kremlin believes Russians are being discriminated against , Ukraine 's independence is no longer assured . Those words will have echoed across parts of the former Soviet Union with large Russian populations : Moldova ( 10 % ) , Lithuania ( 6 % ) , Latvia ( 27 % ) and Estonia ( 25 % ) . Will the Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova begin agitating for its own referendum ? Will oblasts ( regions ) of eastern Ukraine demand their own vote ? Transnistria is already beyond the control of the Moldovan government . Just as a statue of Lenin overlooks the main square in the Crimean capital , Simferopol , so another stands outside Transnistria 's regional assembly in Tiraspol . In a 2006 referendum more than 95 % of voters said they wanted to be reunited with Russia . The assumption at NATO headquarters is that Putin wo n't stop at Crimea . Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen described the annexation of Crimea as `` 21st century revisionism , attempts to turn back the clock , to draw new dividing lines on our map , to monopolize markets , subdue populations . '' NATO has already stepped up air policing over the Baltic states -- all members of the Alliance . Nor does the White House see Crimea as Putin 's end-game . In imposing sanctions against figures close to Putin , President Obama stressed Thursday that further Russian incursions would trigger a third round of sanctions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy . One of Putin 's reasons for ignoring the warnings so far is history , as he made clear in front of the Duma . On Kosovo , NATO expansion , Libya and other issues , he said , the West had lied to and deceived Russia . He did n't use the word payback , but he did n't need to . Gradually , pro-Western governments have taken power around Russia , across the Baltics , now in Ukraine -- feeding the age-old Russian fear of encirlement . Indeed Putin asked the Duma this week : what if Sevastopol in Crimea -- with its glorious place in Russian military history -- had become a NATO base within Ukraine ? A line had to be drawn . But that line has only hastened the signing of Ukraine 's association agreement with the European Union . In signing the agreement Friday , the President of the European Council , Herman van Rompuy , pointedly said it was a response to `` the popular yearning for a decent life as a nation , for a European way of life . '' The subtext was that Putin 's Russia was on the wrong side of history -- anti-democratic , corrupt , without values . Putin 's clique . Another reason for Putin 's embrace of high-octane nationalism , according to some analysts , is that he increasingly relies on a small inner circle , where there are few voices of caution or dissent . There was a sign of this when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met US Secretary of State John Kerry in London recently . U.S. officials were surprised that Lavrov -- despite his enormous experience -- had no mandate to negotiate or even discuss aspects of the crisis . Lavrov announced Friday that the President would personally supervize the reintegration of Crimea . Alexei Kudrin was known to speak his mind as Finance Minister from 2000-2011 . He believes the consequences of sanctions and market anxiety may cost Russia $ 200 billion this year in capital flight . The ruble has already lost 10 % of its value this year and the credit rating agency Fitch 's said Friday that `` Since U.S. and EU banks and investors may well be reluctant to lend to Russia under the current circumstances , the economy may slow further and the private sector may require official support . '' Economists now expect the Russian economy to stagnate and perhaps slide into recession . That hurts people closest to the Russian President , the billionaires who control large chunks of the Russian economy . Major companies like Metalloinvest and state banks like VTB need access to capital markets . Will Putin feel their pain , or must the oligarchs also make patriotic sacrifices ? Another unknown is whether the Kremlin feels the West has the stomach for serious , lasting sanctions . After the Russian incursion into Georgia in 2008 , when South Ossetia was essentially annexed , there was brief and mild retribution . The list of individuals sanctioned by the U.S. and European Union this time round may make a greater impact . But the avenues for dialogue - through NATO , the European Union , the G8 , the United Nations -- are closing down . `` Business as usual , '' says NATO chief Rasmussen , `` is not an option . '' Perhaps the biggest question is whether Putin accepts that Russia in the 21st century must be fully integrated into the international economy -- as a member of the World Trade Organization , with a convertible currency and a rule of law that allows and encourages companies to do business there . Or does he believe Russia is strong enough to stand aloof in the knowledge that the world ( and especially Europe ) ca n't do without its oil , gas and minerals ? Similarly , does he see the value of international co-operation on Iran 's nuclear program or Syria ? Russia has no desire to see a nuclear-armed Iran , nor Syria taken over by jihadist militants . But co-operation with the West does not follow . Despite the fact that his `` cashiers '' are now sanctioned , and his attempts to prevent Ukraine from drifting westward have backfired , Putin 's muscular defiance -- so popular at home and in Crimea -- portrays the West as Russia 's natural adversary , not its potential partner .
Russian President approval ratings are at highest in recent years . Analysts are asking if he is a rational actor , or `` drunk on power '' Assumption at NATO headquarters is that Putin wo n't stop at Crimea . Russia has been expanding its military presence across the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe for decades.