( CNN ) -- What 's at stake in the conflict between the West and Russia over Ukraine is not just the future of Crimea , it 's the future of international order . Some weeks ago , Crimea was a remote place , to historians known as the center of a war in the 1850s , while ordinary people would have associated it with some kind of sparkling alcoholic beverage . But suddenly and unexpectedly , Crimea has become a geopolitical hotspot in a conflict between Russia and the West that seems to be straight out of a Cold War playbook . Moscow has raised the stakes dramatically with a de facto annexation of this region , which is home of an important Russian naval base and inhabited by a population whose majority is oriented towards Russia ( while an important minority , among them the Cossacks , is strongly attached to Ukraine ) . It is unclear at the moment whether President Vladimir Putin sees this only as a first step , which may be followed by an invasion of other parts of southern and eastern Ukraine . What is clear is that Russia is not going to leave anytime soon . 'Soviet Union lite ' The tactics and strategies of de facto-annexation have already been displayed in the Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 ; we 're likely to see them now in Crimea . Under the cover of sham legality , the region will in essence be fully controlled by Moscow . The current leadership in the Kremlin has never accepted that Ukraine , which achieved independence in 1991 , is a sovereign state . It considers Ukraine to be in its sphere of influence , which means that on important issues the country must -- in Russia 's view -- ask Moscow for permission . Putin 's broader plan is to recreate some kind of `` Soviet Union lite , '' a ring of countries under Moscow 's control , with the goal of boosting Russia 's geopolitical standing . Ukraine is the cornerstone of that project . The downfall of President Yanukovych and the triumph of the popular Maidan movement in Ukraine have signaled to Moscow , however , that it is losing its grip on Ukraine and that its grand strategy is going nowhere . As the new government in Kiev appears committed to a close association with the EU and as Putin had lost indirect means of control , he decided to use armed force to win Ukraine back -- or at least to deny the West what he sees , in his terms , as the West 's victory . Moscow has been consistent in viewing Ukraine as a satellite country but the West has constantly ignored the risk that Russia could use armed force there . Yes , there was the precedent of the war in Georgia , but back then Moscow had at least some arguments to back up its narrative of a humanitarian intervention , while the Georgian side lost its nerve and acted preemptively . And the U.S. and the EU were all too happy to accept Moscow 's version of events and continue to do business as usual . The Ukrainian situation is different in many regards . First , there were no serious ethnic tensions that could serve as a pretext for Russian intervention . Second , Ukraine lies between the EU and Russia , which means that the West simply can not ignore a Russian aggression because of geographic proximity . Thirdly , the EU is already deeply involved in Ukraine . In the case of Ukraine , the West is not going to accept Moscow 's narrative . This is too obviously a case of aggression -- the use of force violating Ukraine 's sovereignty . But Putin must have calculated that nevertheless the price for challenging the West over Ukraine wo n't be too high -- that the West is not going to unite behind a strong response . Western cracks . Is he right ? Signs of disagreement about the proper response are visible . On Sunday , German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier publicly voiced doubts about the proposal to exclude Russia from the G8 . Berlin 's tactic is to continue to act as if Russia were ultimately a constructive partner , which just has to be brought back to its senses through intense dialogue . While Berlin wants to offer carrots to bring Moscow back on the path of virtue , others think the time for sticks has come . Washington is preparing measures to step up economic pressure . But inside the EU there is no unity about the proper reaction . The West is far from a united stand and a forceful response . Worse , instead of keeping their differences behind closed doors , Western cracks are all too visible , emboldening Putin . It 's safe to assume that the Western reaction is shaping Putin 's course of action . Moscow fears isolation and economic retaliation . The money that permits the Russian leadership to pursue costly and risky foreign policy adventures comes in large part from the EU , as payment for gas and oil . And substantial parts of the investments of the Russian elite are in the EU as well . But it does n't look as if the West is using its leverage . This caution may backfire . It may incentivize Putin to go beyond the de facto-annexation of Crimea and try to split larger parts away from Ukraine . Western policymakers should raise their game and understand what is at stake . If Russia goes beyond Crimea , there is the risk of a major war with Ukraine . No government can simply watch as another country invades its territory . Acting like an empire . Beyond Ukraine , this conflict is also a defining moment for future Russian foreign policy . If Moscow succeeds in Ukraine , it will come to the conclusion that it can act like an empire . An empire has no borders and does n't respect the borders of others . Moscow 's pretext of protecting allegedly threatened Russian passport-holders could be used against many countries . If the operation in Ukraine succeeds , it will scare many neighboring countries and prompt them to try to buy off Russia . Safe borders and sovereignty are core principles of the global order , enshrined in the United Nations charter and in other documents -- many of which Russia has signed . Russia is a stakeholder in this system , its U.N. Security Council seat is an important element in ensuring its standing as a great power . It is also in Russia 's interests to insist on the sanctity of borders as it has itself a stronger neighbor on its south-eastern side -- China . Moscow can not put the sovereignty of others into question without risking its own sovereignty . Power vacuum . What is at stake in Ukraine is broader than just the region . If the EU and U.S. accept Russia 's land grab , they weaken the foundations of today 's international order , born out of the ashes of World War II and enshrined in the U.N. charter . A situation where powerful states set conditions according to their own interests and weaker ones have no choice but to accept is precisely what this charter is aimed at preventing . If one state can invade another without being attacked , without having an international mandate and a clear backing by international norms ( such as the responsibility to protect ) , the foundations of today 's international order will be at risk . In the past , it was the U.S. that promoted and guaranteed the U.N.-order . In the role of a global quasi-sovereign , and faced with major threats , it sometimes violated this principle itself . But these were exceptions to the overall beneficial role the U.S. played in the promotion of a liberal democratic order . Nowadays , however , Washington is diminishing its global footprint , with its taxpayers no longer willing to bear the biggest chunk of the burden to uphold world order . The Kremlin has sensed a power vacuum and is stepping in . Now the West must decide whether to accept the new rules Russia is setting in its neighborhood -- or whether it has the power and strength to defend an order which has brought it decades of freedom , security and prosperity . Read more : Russia blasted for military buildup . Read more : Ukraine vs. Russia - who 's stronger . Map : How Ukraine is divided . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ulrich Speck .
What 's at stake in Ukraine is not just Crimea 's future , but the world order , Ulrich Speck says . He says Moscow has never accepted Ukraine 's sovereignty and considers it in its sphere . Putin 's broader plan is to create a `` Soviet Union lite '' with Ukraine the cornerstone , he says . The West should be wary of this scenario because Russia will use any pretext for an invasion or annexation as justification for annexing other countries.