( CNN ) -- `` All politics is local . '' That four-word statement , originally uttered by former Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill , is one of the favorite clichés of political pundits everywhere . But it 's seldom respected when it matters most . Consider , for instance , the special election in New York 's 23rd Congressional District , which conservative Democrat Bill Owens won in spite of partisan and nonpartisan polling that had shown Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman with a solid lead . Almost overnight , Hoffman became a sort of folk hero among conservative activists around the country , a decidedly ordinary-looking man who seemed poised to take an extraordinary path into Washington . Some 95 percent of his fundraising came from outside the district . Hoffman , indeed , had some initial success . The original Republican nominee , Dede Scozzafava , dropped out of the race after polling showed her trailing both Hoffman and Owens . But when push came to shove , Hoffman lost . Why ? Because those activists -- however well-meaning they might have been -- misunderstood the district . The 23rd is a Republican district , but it is not a particularly conservative one , having split its vote between Barack Obama and the moderate Republican John McHugh last November . If Nancy Pelosi is regarded suspiciously in the 23rd , so are Sarah Palin and Fred Thompson , who cut commercials and robocalls on behalf of Hoffman . What the voters there wanted was a candidate who understood them . Owens -- superior to Hoffman in his command of local issues -- provided the best approximation . Alternatively , consider the outcome in New Jersey , where Republican Chris Christie knocked off incumbent Gov . Jon Corzine . This election is being touted as a referendum on Obama , who took a risk -- a bad one , indeed -- by campaigning on behalf of Corzine . But Obama was the least of Corzine 's problems : Voters in Tuesday 's election approved of Obama 's performance 57 percent to 43 percent , according to exit polling . It was Corzine they did n't like ; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for . Corzine , for his part , ran a polarizing campaign ; every time Christie 's name appeared in one of his commercials , it came with a scarlet ( R ) -- for Republican -- attached . Republicans are not popular in New Jersey , but local issues drove the race . Whereas three-quarters of Corzine 's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him , two-thirds of Christie 's picked a local one ( property taxes and corruption ) . There is a much stronger case that national factors were in play in Virginia . The voters who turned out there Tuesday were more likely to have supported John McCain than Obama last year . Obama carried the state by 6 percentage points last year . But exit polls found that 51 percent of this year 's voters in Virginia were people who had voted for McCain . Even a strong Democratic candidate would have struggled under the circumstances . But Democrats also made a mistake in thinking that Creigh Deeds , who hails from rural Bath County on the West Virginia border and wears his upbringing on his sleeve , would be the best candidate to represent them in the state . In many other states -- Ohio , say -- it 's the rural , working-class vote that swings elections . But that 's not the case in Virginia , which is one of the wealthiest and most suburban states in the country . There , suburban moderates such as Mark Warner tend to do better . Deeds might have been the right candidate -- but he was in the wrong state . State-level politics , indeed , routinely differ from national ones . That 's why you have Democratic governors in red states such as Oklahoma and Wyoming , but Republican ones in blue states such as Vermont and Hawaii . That does not mean that local elections ca n't tell us anything about national trends -- the White House would be feeling better , certainly , if Democrats had won New Jersey , and likewise Republicans if they 'd won NY-23 . But usually the party that applies a one-size-fits-all approach to local races is the losing one . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nate Silver .
This year 's elections more about local concerns than national ones , says Nate Silver . Special election in New Jersey in a district that is n't particularly conservative , Silver says . New Jersey Democrats rejected Sen . Jon Corzine for local office , Silver says . Silver : In Virginia , Democrats had candidate who did n't appeal statewide .