( CNN ) -- It is time to stop focusing on the next month and start focusing on the years to come . Syria is not a chemical weapons crisis any more than a country whose problems can be solved by supporting the rebels . Like many of the countries in the Middle East -- Bahrain , Egypt , Iraq , Lebanon , Tunisia and Yemen -- it has already been destabilized by a mixture of population pressures , weak economic development , authoritarianism , corruption , failed governance , and deep ethnic and sectarian divisions . It will take years for them to achieve stability and move along some path toward growth and development . Getting rid of Bashar al-Assad 's chemical weapons will be a major challenge . Al-Assad is likely to resist , and delay . An ongoing civil war is scarcely the ideal environment for a complex nationwide effort in arms control . Russia is likely to put al-Assad 's survival before pushing Syria toward full compliance and to oppose any use of force . The November deadlines for even initial compliance are politically and militarily necessary , but may not be workable in practice . Destroying , neutralizing and moving all the weapons is a task of unknown scale and difficulty with no resources now in place . Reports that Syrian officials have turned over materials to prove the August 21 chemical attack was carried out by the rebels only further complicates matters . Added to that , the return of U.N. chemical inspectors to Syria in the coming days means that attempts to coordinate the task of disarmament will be further delayed . These developments aside , what is more important is the fact that any effort to deal with Syria 's chemical weapons does not have any clear impact on a civil war that has almost certainly killed 120,000 Syrian civilians , driven some 2 million out of the country , and displaced well over 4 million . Syria 's economy is crippled , with high levels of youth unemployment and underemployment . Some 20 % of the population has lost a home , a job , or a business . Education is badly disrupted in a country where one-third of the population is 14 years old or younger . Medical services and every other aspect of social and physical infrastructure have been badly damaged . None of these problems can be solved until the civil war is solved , and it can not be solved by partition , which would divide the country into unworkable economic zones based on religion , ethnicity , anger or hatred . An al-Assad victory would leave a seething majority of Sunnis under a dictator who could only survive by using repression at the cost of recovery , development , human rights and freedom . A rebel victory could deprive Alawites and minorities of their rights and bring Islamist extremists to power who would most likely repress the nation 's moderate Sunni majority . The United States can not solve any of these issues from the outside . It can push for the full destruction of the chemical arsenal and an end to the far more lethal use of conventional force against civilians . It can counter the aid to Assad from Iran and Russia by providing arms and training to the moderate parts of the rebel forces . It can push for negotiations that will put a moderate unity government in place . It can continue to provide humanitarian aid , and if a stable government does emerge , it can aid in the process of recovery and development that will take years . In practice , the United States must pursue this course over the years for both humanitarian reasons and self-interest . A violent , polarized Syria is a breeding ground for extremism and terrorism . It threatens allies like Israel , Jordan and Turkey . It is worsening the divisions and violence in Lebanon and Iraq , and giving Iran a major new zone of influence and growing ability to threaten our Arab allies in the Gulf and the world 's oil exports . At the same time , however , the U.S. must carefully ration its aid and military resources . Syria is not as important as the crisis in Egypt or Iraq . Iran is much more of a direct threat . Yemen and Iraq are both far more of a center for al Qaeda than Afghanistan and Pakistan . Bahrain is a key ally and the center of our naval operations in the region . Tunisia needs help in becoming a real and stable democracy . Morocco and Jordan are allies that also need aid , and Israel 's security is a constant concern . In short , Syria is just this month 's crisis in a region where the Arab Spring has become at least a decade of violence , religious conflict , threat to development and progress , and where the United States can neither solve a single problem quickly nor take a single risk of disengaging from an effort to help . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Anthony Cordesman .
Anthony Cordesman : None of Syria 's problems can be solved until its civil war is solved . Cordesman : The U.S. must be involved for both humanitarian reasons and self-interest . He says at the same time , the U.S. must carefully ration its aid and resources to the region . Cordesman : Sadly , Syria is just this month 's crisis in a region full of complicated conflicts .