( CNN ) -- Kenya 's most critical and complex election in its 50th year since independence kicks off on March 4 , next Monday . Critical because it 'll be the first real road test of the new Western-style liberal constitution promulgated in August 2010 in the aftermath of Kenya 's near-death experience after the controversial 2007 elections that resulted in a convulsion of violence that saw over 1,000 killed and at one point over 600,000 displaced . Critical as well because , crucially , two of the leading contenders , Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto of the Jubilee Coalition are defendants before the International Criminal Court ( ICC ) accused of crimes against humanity . They deny the charges , and will both run in the election . Rather unfortunately , an election many had hoped would be about the new constitution and resolving the underlying issues that made the last election so toxic , has ended up , thus far , defined by the ICC and the tribal mobilization this has enabled . Read this : Can mobiles help stop Kenya election violence ? It is a complex election as well because Kenya is implementing a devolved 47-county system of government via these polls -- electing governors , senators , county representatives and other officials to a brand new federated structure of government -- an election that will be , per capita , the most expensive in the world . Still , Kenyans -- especially the rural poor -- are enthusiastic about devolution as it promises greater accountability on the part of one of the continent 's most durable , sophisticated , well resourced , corrupt and ruthless elites . While much attention has focused on the close and potentially troublesome presidential election the real action may actually turn out to be at the county level that is totally new . Kenyans are coming to terms with the fact that what `` normal '' means is about to change forever . All these factors , combined with reports of continuing ethnic balkanization in informal settlements , threats and arming for both defensive and offensive violence , have served to create an atmosphere of high anxiety preceding the polls . The anxiety is in part because the country is trying to move so many big governance boulders at the same time informed by the violence that took place last time . Peace-building activities ( prayers , concerts , roadshows , talk shows , plays , films etc . ) have been legion , competing for overloaded national political bandwidth during this hectic electioneering period . It all reveals a country that terrified itself out of its own wits as a result of the sheer barbarity and speed of the meltdown in 2008 . Read this : Kenyan DJs go without food for peaceful elections . That said , barring some catastrophic blunder by the nascent Independent Election and Boundaries Commission ( IEBC ) that shall be conducting the election , which pollsters predict will be so close between the two leading candidates , Kenyatta and Odinga that a run-off is likely , Kenyan elections are usually smooth affairs . Trouble usually comes afterwards . A second round is an innovation to Kenyans and much will transpire between the first and second rounds if there is n't a clear winner on March 4 . The ICC has destabilized Kenya 's politics but introduced a new measure of elite accountability , raising the cost of elite-driven violence to a level that has meant the tribal vitriol of previous electioneering has n't been in such evidence this time around . Going by remarks of the ICC 's president , the Kenyan case has clearly challenged the ICC too . Indeed , the future of the institution as a credible agent of change on the continent is dependent on how the Kenyan process plays out . However , regardless of the outcome , it is likely that a sizeable chunk of the Kenyan population will vote for ICC indictees with all the implications that has for the rule of law , Kenya 's posture with regard to international standards of human rights and good governance , and for the country 's standing within the African continent and global community . It will also hopefully lead to a good dose of national introspection . Indeed , it seemed to dawn on the business community and middle class ( roughly 10 % of the 14.3 million registered voters ) only in the past month the terrible implications of `` getting this one wrong . '' At a time when there has been considerable excitement about Africa 's economic prospects , underpinned by deepening democratic culture in places like Ghana and Kenya , if Kenya falters in this transition it is not unlikely that the implications will be a review of the African renaissance that has at times caused excessive hyperventilating by hedge fund managers in the West as the world 's latest `` emerging market '' emerges . What 's clear , however , is that for Kenya the emergence will be bumpy and even bloody at times . But emerge it shall . According to the U.N. OCHA , between January last year and the start of this year , for example , almost 500 Kenyans ( including dozens of police ) have been killed in a worrying trend of the normalization of violence , and 112,000 citizens have been displaced . Read this : Can tech revolutionize African elections ? Lots of unfinished business lingers from the last convulsion of violence and underlies it . Tribalism , historical grievances with regard to land , corruption , drug trafficking , money laundering and impunity among the elite in general have served to hold back the most globalized , diverse , industrious , economically innovative and dynamic country on the eastern side of the African continent . But most Kenyans , if not all their leaders , have a great will to make a success out of a transition that will lay the foundation for a stable , peaceful and prosperous future for the next generations . The need for a peaceful transition is particularly powerful in the collective imagination . There is an understanding that change wo n't come overnight , however , for while the new constitution has changed the forest , as a local saying goes , the monkeys have remained the same . All the leading presidential contenders are part of the old elite . That said , the constitution includes a raft of institutions and checks and balances that are also unprecedented . Secondly , Kenya has never had a younger , healthier , better educated , more globally connected and tech-savvy population in its entire history -- 75 % of Kenyans are below 30 years of age . Indeed , there are five million first-time voters between the ages of 18 and 25 . Kenyans are acutely aware that the conduct of the upcoming polls and the implementation of the new constitution , our handling of the ICC cases , will impact not only our future but the way Africa , and the world , views Africa . Honor means we have to get it right , despite the apparent odds . The opinions in this commentary are solely those of John Githongo .
John Githongo : Kenya is holding its most complex election since independence . Two candidates are accused of crimes against humanity by ICC . Score: 7 Kenyans aware that conduct of the election will be closely watched , says Githongo .